IMF downgrades global growth predictions after Trump tariffs

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This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Valerie Sanderson and in the early hours of Wednesday the 23rd of April, these are our main stories.
The International Monetary Fund downgrades global economic growth forecasts and warns that the risk of a recession in the US has significantly increased. In Kashmir, more than 20 people have been killed after gunmen opened fire on tourists.
Also in this podcast, how the next pope is chosen. And the priest from the only Catholic church in the Gaza Strip remembers the late Pope Francis.
The Pope called for more than one year and a half every day with a small message or sometimes under the bombing to give a hope. We start with the forecast from the International monetary fund, the World Economic Outlook.
The IMF has downgraded its forecast for global growth, predicting that Donald Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty they've caused will lead to a significant slowdown. The IMF said growth in the US, the world's biggest economy, could be almost a full percentage point lower this year than previously predicted.
Pierre-Olivier Gruncha, the IMF's chief economist,

said the U.S. could be the hardest hit.
For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures

temporarily. This adds to an already weakening outlook and leads us to revise growth down

I'm going to 1.8 percent with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade from the tariffs only, while inflation is revised upwards. He said the prospect of the U.S.
economy going into recession has significantly increased. We were seeing already consumption numbers coming down.
We're seeing consumer confidence coming down. So all of that was already factored in.
But we're not seeing a recession in our reference forecast. We are seeing the probability of a recession increasing from about 25% back in October to around 40% when we assess it now.
With his assessment from the IMF's meeting in Washington DC, here's our economics editor, Faisal Islam. The forecast from the IMF is unusually important, not because of the numbers, but because of the underlying message.
It projects consensus thinking in global economics and finance that the US has launched a trade war that wrecks an ongoing recovery from four years of pandemic and war, and one that will damage the US itself the most. This will form the basis of some difficult discussions now in the round among the G7 advanced nations and the wider grouping of the G20, which includes China.
Until now, the US has used tariffs to try to pick off trade concessions with partners individually. But some considerable pushback is likely here in Washington.
Pleasantries may be dispensed with. Underlying all this may be a perception that contrary to the White House view, the US now needs to show febrile markets that deals are being done.
Main Street is now starting to see the first impacts of supplier price increases and pauses of cargoes, the return of US passenger jets from China to Boeing even. Even allies are decrying the limited negotiations so far, claiming privately they do not really know what the US wants.

And then, in the background of these meetings, are much bigger realignments of the global economic system.

Is the dollar being displaced, at least partly, as the globe's reserve currency?

Is this in fact part of the US plan in order to weaken its own currency?

Could the US engagement with the IMF and its sister organisation, the World Bank, part of the post-war furniture of global finance, now be up for grabs? Faisal Islam. US stocks have recovered some of their recent losses following White House assertions that it's making good progress on reaching a trade deal with China.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, President Trump said he was optimistic. We're going to be very nice.
They're going to be very nice. And we'll see what happens.
But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise, they're not going to be able to deal in the United States. So we want them involved.
But they have to and other countries have to make a deal. And if they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal.

The U.S. public appears divided on the tariffs.

These people in rural Arizona, Trump's heartland,

had mixed views on the benefits of President Trump's policy.

I think everyone should be worried right now.

There's a lot of uncertainty.

When there's a lot of uncertainty, it creates panic in the market.

Other countries taxing us and putting high tariffs on our goods that we don't even know about. And I think the fact that now it's coming to light, I feel really confident that our president right now is going in the right direction and I back him 100 percent.
We got to take a little bit of a hit to be able to get to the other side. And if it hurts, it hurts a little bit.
But it's going to hurt a lot more later if we don't. Some views from Arizona in the United States.
The resort of Palgam in Indian-administered Kashmir is normally known as a tranquil and remote beauty spot, but it's become the scene of a violent tragedy. More than 20 tourists who were hiking there have been shot dead by gunmen.
I heard more from our South Asia correspondent, Yoghita Lamai, who's in Delhi. Well, what we're being told by sources in the police department is that there were multiple gunmen who came out and started shooting at a group of tourists who were visiting the Pehelgam area.
This happened on Tuesday afternoon, as far as we know. We're still to get exact details of how many attackers were there and indeed how many have been killed and injured.
But locals say that dozens of people have been rushed to nearby hospitals with gunshot wounds. There are videos on social media of people pleading for help.
You can see what look like people who were either injured or killed in the attack lying on the ground behind them in those videos. To give you context, Perhelgam is one of the most popular tourist spots in Indian-administered Kashmir.
It's known for its rolling meadows, for its lush green valleys. This is peak domestic tourist season in India because it's school holidays for most people in India.
And so there would have been lots and lots of people in the whole of Kashmir, but also lots of people visiting Behlgaon. Has anything emerged about who carried out the attack or where they came from? Did they come from India? It's unclear at the moment.
No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. We know that the area has been cordoned off and that a search has been launched for these attackers.

We have had a word from the prime minister who's condemned what he refers to

as the terror attack in Pehel Gham.

He said, those behind this heinous attack

will be brought to justice.

The Home Affairs Minister, Amit Shah,

has chaired a high-level security meeting in Delhi

and he's now gone to Kashmir

to review the security situation on the ground.

This region, of course, no stranger to conflict.

It's faced an armed insurgency for more than three and a half decades now, in which tens of thousands of civilians and security forces have been killed. However, even against that backdrop, this is an extremely unusual attack, because rarely in those three and a half decades have tourists been attacked on this kind of scale.
And so it's something that sent shockwaves through Kashmir, but through the whole of India. In fact, we've had the chief minister of the region, Omar Abdullah, also saying that he's really shocked by this attack because it's the largest attack that they've seen, which is directed at civilians in this manner.
And there had been increased security in the area, hadn't there? Well, it's one of the most militarized areas in the world. It's a conflict zone.
It's a region that is disputed between Pakistan and India. And as I said, has faced three and a half decades of an insurgency.
So there's always been a lot of military presence, a lot of troop presence. In 2019, the region was stripped of its special status, the relative autonomy that it enjoyed by the government run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
That was a very contentious move. The government claimed that it made the region safer.
People on the ground, who we've spoken to, have repeatedly over the years told us that it's come at the cost of democratic rights. I think what will happen after this attack is that there will be serious questions raised about the government's claims that Kashmir has become safer.
Yoghata Lemai. More than 170 universities have banded together in the US to oppose the Trump administration's demands on higher education institutions, saying political interference is a danger.
It comes as Harvard filed a lawsuit against President Trump's government after it froze federal grants worth billions of dollars when the school rejected a list of proposals. They were said to include giving up control over hiring and admissions and providing information about foreign students, which Harvard called breathtakingly intrusive.
Our North America correspondent Nomi Iqbal has sent us this report. In the letter, the universities accused the White House of unprecedented government overreach as President Trump targets what he describes as left-wing activism and anti-Semitism on campuses.
The institutions, including Ivy League schools such as Princeton and Brown, say they must reject what they call the coercive use of public research funding. Yesterday, Harvard sued the White House after the Trump administration announced it would freeze $2.2 billion in funding because the university was refusing to accept demands to curb diversity initiatives.
Its president, Adam Garber, said the Trump administration was essentially looking for an excuse to control Harvard, a view echoed by one of his predecessors, Larry Summers. The government's attempt to just cut off funding violated the statute in the most blatant way.
It's just a power statement that funding on which scientists have relied to do their research on cancer and the like is going to be summarily cut off. Harvard's lawsuit could take years to play out and end up at the Supreme Court.
The Trump administration has already rolled back diversity, equity and inclusion programmes, arrested international students and revoked their visas at universities. Last month, another Ivy League university, Colombia, complied with demands in order to restore its federal funding.
Namia Iqbal. More details have emerged of the final moments of the life of Pope Francis.
The Vatican said among his last words was a thank you to his nurse for encouraging him to greet Easter worshippers in St Peter's Square on Sunday. The pontiff became unwell just a couple of hours before his death, with the Vatican saying the end was quick and he didn't suffer.
His funeral will be held in the square on Saturday and will be attended by dozens of world leaders and tens of thousands of Roman Catholics. On Wednesday morning, his body will be moved to St Peter's Basilica to allow the faithful to pay their respects for three days.
Maria Mishiri is there. Behind me in the square, there are three or four giant screens.
They have a black background, and on them there's written that the Basilica will be open from 11am on Wednesday morning. Now it'll be open until midnight.
It reopens again 7am on Thursday morning. It's going to be extremely busy.
Already we're seeing tens of thousands of people filing through the square to pay their respects. Organisers are expecting there to be huge queues here over the next few days as people try to catch a glimpse of the Pope as he rests in state.
Cardinals who met at the Vatican on Tuesday to plan Pope Francis' funeral will also choose his successor next month. The process may be long and drawn out.
There are more cardinals than ever before from more countries and there's no clear favourite for the role. Our religion editor Ali McBull has the details.
The choice of who succeeds Pope Francis is of course one that could have a profound impact on the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, affecting an estimated 1.4 billion followers of the faith. But this conclave promises to be a highly unpredictable and open process.
That's because around 80% of the cardinals who can take part in the voting process were appointed by Pope Francis himself during his 12-year papacy. Given they're based all over the world, for the first time ever fewer than half coming from Europe, and given many are relatively new to their roles, some don't know each other well at all, making it hard to work out who they'll coalesce around.
That said, some are being talked about as frontrunners. Cardinal Pietro Parolin was essentially the right-hand man to Pope Francis.
He's an Italian, and 213 of the 266 popes they've already been come from Italy, but he is seen in many ways as a pragmatist and diplomat.

Unlike him, though, Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines has decades of being more of a pastoral figure. In Social Outlook, someone described to have a position close to that of Pope Francis.
And then there's Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, a former funk band guitarist and hugely influential conservative across Africa and beyond. In this contest, though, even more than any other, be prepared for a complete outsider to come out on top.
And have no doubt that while the conclave isn't officially convened for a couple of weeks, conversations between cardinals over Rome dinners, at least about the type of person needed, have already begun. Ali McBoole.
One man, Cardinal Kevin Farrell,

now carries the heavy responsibility of overseeing the Pope's funeral and managing the conclave that

will elect his successor. The Irish-American cardinal is known as the Camelengo or Chamberlain

and the world first got a glimpse of him when on Monday he announced the death of Pope Francis. Ella Bicknell reports.
The world watched as he delivered the news, one of the many responsibilities now facing the 77-year-old cardinal and close confidant of Pope Francis. Born in Dublin in 1947, Kevin Farrell studied theology in Spain and Rome.
After ordination, he served as chaplain at the University of Monterey in Mexico before moving to the United States, later being appointed Bishop of Dallas. In 2016, he was called to Rome, a personal appointment by Pope Francis.
I got a telephone call from the Pope himself, and he told me what he was thinking. And I told him that, you know, I would do whatever he wanted, but he should really think this out again.
I mean, I'm too old for that kind of a job. And he convinced me that I needed to do this.
He has a very kind, gentle way of twisting your arm. Three years later, he was elevated to the role of Camelengo.
Four years after that, he became president of the Supreme Court of Vatican City State. As Camelengo, Cardinal Farrell is responsible for overseeing the period of mourning.

He certified the Pope's death on Easter Monday

before sealing Pope Francis' residence in the Vatican's St Martha guesthouse.

He destroyed the Pope's ring and lead seal

to ensure no one else can issue documents in his name.

He helped lay the pontiff's body in his coffin

and will lead the procession to St Peter's Square on Saturday. Once morning is over, he will oversee the election process by which the next Pope is chosen.
You know how it works if you've watched the 2024 Oscar-winning film Conclave. Why did the Holy Father in his last official act as Pope choose me to run this conclave? Farrell's role was portrayed fictionally by Ralph Fiennes, coordinating all 135 eligible cardinals to vote in secret inside the historic Sistine Chapel.
And if you're wondering, could the Camelengo become Pope himself? Technically, yes, but it's only happened twice in the history of the papacy.

Ella Bicknell. And if you have any questions around how the new Pope is chosen, we're planning

a special conclave edition. We'll examine the process, the timetable, who looks likely to

succeed Pope Francis, and what changes might be in store for the Roman Catholic Church.

Send us a voicemail or an email to globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. And you can also find us on X

Thank you. might be in store for the Roman Catholic Church.
Send us a voicemail or an email to globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk and you can also find us on X at BBC World Service.

Use the hashtag Global News Pod.

Still to come...

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Forces fighting the military junta in Myanmar's civil war

have accused the generals of using the crisis

caused by the recent massive earthquake to strengthen their grip on the country. The earthquakes led to the deaths of 3,700 people and tens of thousands were made homeless.
On Tuesday, the ceasefire declared after the earthquake to allow humanitarian aid was extended by the military just before it was due to expire. But there have been widespread reports of continuing violence.
The BBC's Paul Henley spoke to Dr Sasa, as he calls himself, a representative of the exiled National Unity Government from Myanmar, formerly known as Burma. So does he think the military government will respect its own ceasefire? We are facing, Paul, the military that announced ceasefire, but violated ceasefire the day that they announced, the minute that they announced, the second that they announced ceasefire.
They started bombing the villagers, the people, civilians. Now, since the day that they announced ceasefire, we have recorded at least 126 times of airstrike against the people of Burma 160 plus people civilians have been killed including the pastors women and children even today as we speak is the Monday they bombed at least three places in Burma what effect is that having on the efforts to help people affected by the earthquake? What we have seen is the military are stopping the aid to go to the people most in need, and they are not allowing.
If the money or the aids come through to Yangon or Nebidol, and then, you know, they are not allowed to go to energy control or the opposition control area. And that's why we are saying it has to be brought cross aid as well, not just only the aid coming through international airport or seaport.
It has to be to balancing through border cross assistance. And is aid reaching the people who need it, including through you, through the national unity government? Not in the way that we need it.
it's coming through a very, very small amount. Basically, most of the AIDS that is coming to the opposition cultural area are people-to-people support, not international big donor organizations.
Of course, these are under the permissions of the military. So when all those AIDS come through under the military framework, they are using that aid as weapons, weaponising it.
So the aid that is coming through to us is very, very minimum. You met last week with the chair of the ASEAN bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Can they mediate? Do you have faith in their ability to do that? They have got opportunity to make this senseless killing of the people of Ashan. And, you know, this is something that they can do it, but they are not able to do it.
Yes, the meeting was positive notes. But again, our belief is that this ceasefire, this must be excedent, this must be must be implemented, right? There has to be some level of monetary mechanism of the ceasefire.
Do you think that the crisis that followed the earthquake has actually helped the military junta? That is what we are seeing, is that they are politicising it. That means that they are making the most of it.
And for example, like before the earthquake happened, they cannot meet with us on chair, right? After the earthquake happened, they are able to meet it. And they are able to meet with other international aid organizations.
And then they are using it to legitimize, to normalize their act of crimes against humanity. And they are trying to normalize human rights abuses.

That is our main worry.

And the red line is that we are suffering two crises.

One is a man-made crisis and it's a nature crisis.

And now this nature crisis is now become again a man-made crisis.

So this should not be allowed by the military to use as weapons

to against its own people and get legitimacy through these operations that they are talking to international actors. Dr Sasa of the exiled Unity Government for Myanmar.
In the last decade, China's cosmetic surgery industry has exploded, fuelled by new social media and beauty platforms. Every year, millions are opting for cosmetic procedures.
The market is expected to surpass US$55 billion. But the surge in demand has led to a shortage of qualified practitioners and licensed clinics, as BBC Eye's Natalia Zhu uncovers.
Abby Wu has become a poster girl for China's cosmetic surgery boom.

On her social media, she talks openly about the surgery she's had and how much it all costs her, more than half a million US dollars so far. The number is still going up and up.
I don't think I'll ever stop trying to be more beautiful. Her mother took her for her first procedure, when she was just 14 years old.
In the past 20 years or so, I've had probably over 100 procedures. I have had six nose jobs, four fat grafts, two liposuctions and three double eyelid surgeries.
In the last decade, China's plastic surgery industry has exploded, fueled by new social media and beauty platforms. But the surge in demand has led to a shortage of qualified practitioners and licensed clinics.
In one high-profile case, actress Gao Liu says she nearly lost her nose after cosmetic surgery went wrong. I was so scared, I broke down.
It ruined my career as an actor. As someone who really cares about appearance, I thought my entire life was ruined.
When she shared her story on social media, it went viral. Within weeks, the regional health body announced they were sanctioning those responsible.
But I've been investigating the surgeon who did that operation, Dr. He Ming, and discovered that he only became a licensed plastic surgeon a few years after operating on Gao Liu.
And that license should not have been granted to him because he was sanctioned at the time. To find out whether he has been presenting himself as a properly qualified plastic surgeon, we go undercover.

Dr. Homing confirmed that he has been doing nose surgeries for over 10 years.

One of his staff told us that he's been called the region's nose king.

According to an industry report, about 40,000 cases of botched surgeries and treatments happen every year. Our investigation has found that now young women are undergoing costly

procedures and trapped into debt. We've spoken to dozens of young women across China who share

similar experiences of being scammed or pressured into so-called beauty loans. Xiaomu was just 18 years old when her employer pressured her to take out a high-interest loan to pay for a cosmetic procedure.
She told me I can make the money back with a few commissions. At that moment, you really didn't know how to refuse.
Seven years on, she's still in debt despite working multiple jobs to pay it off. Authorities in China are trying to regulate the industry.
We put our allegations to Dr. He Ming, Qingya Clinic and the Guangdong Provincial Health Commission.
They did not respond. The Chinese embassy in the UK told us the Chinese government consistently requires enterprises to operate in strict compliance with national laws, regulations and relevant policy provisions.
And you can hear the full investigation, Make Me Perfect, on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for BBC The Documentary.
Two former prosecutors in Thailand have been found guilty of helping the heir to the Red Bull energy drink empire avoid standing trial on allegations that he ran over and killed a police officer 13 years ago. These are the first convictions related to the case, which has sparked fury in the country because of perceptions that rich people are able to skirt the law.
Our Asia-Pacific regional editor Celia Hatton reports. In a killing that dates back to 2012, Warjut Uritia is accused of driving at high speed in his black Ferrari while drunk and slamming into a policeman, dragging his body for 100 meters.
The officer later died in hospital. The heir to the Red Bull drink fortune now lives in exile and has ignored multiple court summons to return.
And in a twist that has infuriated many in Thailand, many of the charges against him have expired. But the case lives on.
A Bangkok court has found the prosecutors, one of them a former deputy attorney general, had minimized the charges against Woryut Yuvitaba, in part by altering the speed at which his car had been driving. They vowed to appeal the court's ruling.
Mr. Woryut has been spotted at luxury events around the world in recent years, stoking the widespread belief in Thailand that wealthy people can avoid justice.
Celia Hatton. Let's return to the reaction following the death of Pope Francis.
In previous podcasts, we reported that the Pope, in his final speech, his Easter

message, read out on Sunday, asked for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all remaining hostages. It was also widely reported that he was in constant contact with a group of Palestinian Christians in the Gaza Strip at the Latin Rite Church of the Holy Family in Gaza.
The priest There is Father Gabriel Romanelli.

He spoke to the BBC's Rebecca Kesby.

The Pope calls for more than one year and a half every day. Sometimes, especially in the last months, he can't call us.
But all the time, we contact us with a small message or sometimes under the bombing to give a hope to ask about us, about the situation, to offer the prayer for all, Catholic, Orthodox, even our neighbors, Muslims, because all feel like the Pope Francis as their father.

In the same time, we hope that the world will receive the last appeal for peace from the Pope Francis.

When was the last time you spoke to him?

It was Saturday before the vigil, the Holy Mass.

He called us and gave the blessing.

He taught us thanks

for our prayers for him.

When he called

us on Saturday,

we are in the church.

So many children, teenagers,

families were gathering

around me and Father Yusuf

and the sisters.

And so they hear the voice of the Pope, a very simple message. This was the last time, so two days ago.
And what did his regular phone calls and messages mean for you, the leader of your congregation living under awful circumstances? How did it help you in your leadership and role there? Yes, because it's not easy to live here. So as a pastor here, to feel the closeness to the Pope himself and to say to him, thanks, Father, thanks for all the work you you have for the poor we help thousands and thousands of families here the poor families so for us was a very clear and very strong sign of the mercy of the lord and the encouragement to serve the Lord in his church.

And there are clips of him speaking to you.

I think it may have been from hospital when he was there.

He was speaking some Arabic as well.

Was that something that he used to do?

Yes, he pronounced some greetings in Arabic.

Assalamu alaikum, alaikum.

So God bless you. How are you? Thank you.
Shukran. So it's very kind from his holiness.
Father Gabriel Romanelli. And that's it from us for now, but there will be a new edition of the Global News Podcast later.
And we're planning a special conclave edition, answering your questions around how the new Pope is chosen. We'll examine the process, the timetable, who looks likely to succeed Pope Francis, and what changes might be in store for the Catholic Church.
Send us a voicemail or an email to globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. You can also find us on X at BBC World Service.
Use the hashtag

Global News Pod. This edition was mixed by Caroline Driscoll.
The producer was Marion

Straughan. The editor is Karen Martin.
I'm Valerie Sanderson. Until next time.
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