Unbundled Advice: A Mailbag Episode

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Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff Podcast, your weekly podcast where we're talking about stuff related to money.

I'm Matt Levine, and I write the Money Stuffcom for Bloomberg Opinion.

And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and an anchor for Bloomberg Television.

And today, it's a mailback.

Dear listeners, just keep on sending in questions, and it feels like it's about time.

It also helps that I'm on vacation.

We're recording this in the future, in the past.

I don't know.

On the floops.

Yeah, definitely.

I am actively skiing right now.

Remember, we did an episode about Cocoa Futures.

How could I forget?

I forgot forgot a little bit, but I was so tickled by this question.

Did we do an episode?

Yeah, we did.

We talked about Hershey.

Sorry, I said, How can I forget?

It's all coming back to me now.

Matt Lynch.

We have a question from Patrick who says, Thanks to your podcast, I'm now obsessed with chocolate futures contracts.

I have a question about these chocolate warehouses that I just can't understand.

Maybe you can help me.

If they exist to facilitate futures contracts, why is the quality of the chocolate often bad?

I thought futures contracts specified the quality of the chocolate in advance in terms of origin and grade.

Is it not a flaw in the system that worst chocolate is being put in these warehouses?

Thanks.

I love that question.

That's a good question.

I did some reporting.

I sampled the chocolate.

I went to Bloomberg Intelligence when I have like a niche question about a topic I know very little about.

I'm going to read this out loud.

Sure.

I got this email and I read it really quickly, so I haven't thought deeply about this.

So, hello, you're completely right.

Contracts would specify the quality and origin of cocoa beans, and this is the reason why cocoa really doesn't have one single price, but several that reflect these differences.

So, to illustrate this from a higher-level perspective, at the end of last year, the ICCO published a report noting that the price difference between London Futures and NY was due to London having more beans from Cameroon, which are perceived to be of lower quality.

Now, because cocoa is a soft, maybe there is some scope for exchanges to hold lower quality or just mismanage inventories.

Don't really know to what extent this is happening now.

I'll leave a quote quite popular among cocoa market participants: quote: When there is a lot of cocoa, all cocoa is crap.

When there is no cocoa, all crap is cocoa.

Oh dear.

I hadn't read that first.

That's really funny.

It's a great episode title, if we can do it.

All crap is cocoa.

That is so interesting.

I guess I haven't really thought about it before, that when you take a look at commodities such as this and you think about the different prices on different exchanges, I have never thought that maybe the quality, in this case, of cocoa explains the difference.

Yeah.

Because with oil, I mean, I don't really think about the quality of oil, but it makes sense that there's...

I don't because I don't think about that.

But it makes sense that cocoa.

Yes, true.

Sour crude, et cetera.

Yeah.

I mean, I write about this a lot.

Like, if you're a chocolate maker, you want cocoa to put into chocolate.

And, like, if your chocolate bars taste bad, that's bad for you.

If you're a commodities futures warehouse, you need cocoa to like be the underlying deliverable for the commodities futures since you put that in the warehouse.

But you don't expect that most people trading the futures will take delivery of the cocoa.

And so there's like a little bit more of a disconnect.

Like, you have to use specify a grade and everything, but like, it's a little bit less important that the cocoa tastes good if it's mostly being used as a substrate for commodities futures contracts than if you're actually just putting it directly into chocolate bars.

And so there are a couple of like examples of this

from the not chocolate market, of which my very favorite is that in the nickel market.

Yes.

There's a warehouse, put nickel in it, you trade futures on the nickel.

nickel is kind of non-perishable.

And so like you never really have to take the nickel out of the warehouse.

And so it just sits in the warehouse for years.

And at some point, someone discovered that some nickel that JP Morgan owned-not because it was like JP Morgan's nickel, because like they, you know, happened to take delivery on the futures contract.

The nickel in this warehouse that JP Morgan owned was actually a bag of rocks, and like it was fine, like who cares?

They never took it out, they never like made anything with it, it was just a bag of rocks in the thing.

But, like, once you discover it's a bag of rocks, you can no longer use it to trade nickel futures.

But until then, it doesn't matter, you're not like building anything.

But the other great example is coffee futures.

Yeah, in the coffee market, coffee is, like cocoa, perishable.

And so there are rules about like the quality of the coffee that goes into the coffee warehouses.

And one of the rules is like, you can't leave it there forever, right?

Because it's perishable.

And so there's an age penalty where like you get paid less if you deliver old coffee.

But it used to be that you could take your older beans off the exchange and then resubmit them for a new round of certification and get rid of the age penalty.

So the beans are so like abstracted that like taking them out and putting them back in makes them fresh new beans again.

Wow.

Which is not how actual coffee brewing works, but for Commodities Futures, it's fine.

It's good enough.

And they changed that rule.

So now you have to have slightly fresher coffee.

That would be a disgusting cup of coffee.

I mean, yes, I think coffee probably you could go.

I don't know.

I have pretty high standards.

You have?

Okay, fine.

You would not drink

Commodities Futures exchange coffee.

I probably would just

for a step.

I mean, if I was dying, perhaps

that would be kind of fun.

I think we should do it.

So different commodities have different rules, but in general, the need to have the freshest possible commodity, you want that for your industrial uses, not for your putting in a warehouse.

Yeah.

Great question, Patrick.

That was a lot of fun.

Mailbag.

Mailbag.

This question comes from Justin.

Straight after my own heart.

With the advent of a private credit ETF, isn't adverse selection an inherent issue?

What is to protect the retail investor and prevent the ETF manager from stuffing the fund with the loans it expects to underperform with respect to similar loans from a particular vintage that is like the most pessimistic fear here that's like a very reasonable fear i know but yeah you would hope that apollo isn't trying to like use retail as exit liquidity or whatever i mean

you would hope you hope that all the loans are good yeah and like as an asset manager you have fiduciary duties to all of your clients and you try to make only the best loans.

It is weird, you know, like, you know, you look at Apollo, like

much of their capital is their balance sheet, right?

I mean, they run a big retirement services company, right?

So a lot of it is their balance sheet.

A lot of it is client money that pays stereotypically 2 and 20, right?

It's probably not really 2 and 20, but people who pay kind of like alternatives manager fees.

Yeah.

And some of it is like ETF money who pay lower fees.

So like, where do you put the best loans?

Your insurance company, your balance sheet, very smart people run that.

Your limited partners and your institutional private credit funds, smart.

Repeat player allocators?

Your retail ETF clients?

Who knows?

Well, I actually did reporting for this question as well.

I sat down with Ana Poglia from State Street Global Advisors on March 13th on Bloomberg Television, and I asked her this question.

Does State Street have the in-house expertise to sort of evaluate what Apollo is putting in the ETF?

And this was her answer.

She said, We do have the expertise in-house, but we also made the new hire so to make sure that we had the right talent in seats.

SSGA is the advisor by design.

We wanted us to be in a position to make selections and have investment discretion on what assets to take or not to take from Apollo.

That's the sensible answer, right?

It's like the ETF manager has a fiduciary obligation to the ETF clients, and they have their own independent ability to make sure they're not getting stuffed with like Apollo's worst loans.

Plus, like Apollo is not in the business of trying to make the worst loans, right?

So like

they're trying to also make good loans.

If you think about like a bond ETF, like you have the same risk there.

And the reason people don't think about it very much, like they do a little bit, right?

Because there are sometimes like worries about cherry-picking.

But the reason people don't think about it that much is because a bond fund has like a track record.

There's an incentive for like PIMCO to not do a bad job managing its public bond funds because then people won't put money into them.

Yeah.

The private credit ETF stuff is new.

And so there's no like through-the-cycle performance data where you can tell whether a fund is good or not.

Right.

And so you have to worry about this stuff.

In the long run, you sort of assume that like people will try to manage funds well because that's how they raise money.

Yeah.

It doesn't have a track record.

And I think that's an important point because there are a lot of very pessimistic concerns about this ETF, but it just hasn't been alive for very long.

Right.

Like you could like sort of tell a story of like private credit has had this like massive boom and the market might be turning a little bit.

And

now is the perfect time to stuff retail with it.

Yeah, that's like a kind of a simple question.

I mean, we're recording this in the future, so who knows what it looks like.

Yeah, maybe things will be totally better by the time this episode comes out, but great question.

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Over the next decade, sectors like energy, infrastructure, and technology will require an estimated $75 to $100 trillion in CapEx to modernize and meet the growing demand.

This unprecedented level of investment is beyond the scope of public markets alone.

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That's where private capital comes in.

And that's where Apollo leads.

With significant scale, the flexibility to adapt to evolving CapEx needs, and a steadfast focus on enabling economic growth, we're partnering with companies to provide the financing solutions that fuel the future.

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Mailbag.

Mailbag.

We have another question.

I don't have a name to attach to this one, but the question is fun.

As we accelerate/slash descend into the scenario where Elon Musk is God King, and the answer to every question is, because that's what Elon wants.

What's the point of digging into anything?

Matt, take us into this existential spiral.

Right.

I used to think of my job as like trying to understand and explain complex structural financial topics.

And then like

meme stocks hit, and I found myself writing a lot of very dumb stuff and like coining the Elon Markets hypothesis, which is that

financial assets were valuable not because of their cash flows, but because of their proximity to Elon Musk.

Because there was a time, and it's kind of continuing, where like Elon would like tweet about a thing and like the thing would go up.

And it's like Dogecoin or like there's a story about Signal where he tweeted news signal and like an unrelated company with Signal in its name went up.

Just anything like he turned his attention to would go up.

And if you sort of like looked at that and thought well the present value of the expected future cash flows of this company has gone up because elon tweeted about it then

you would be missing the point and like what was actually happening was just like yeah people like elon musk and the stock goes up right and then like meme stocks kind of crystallized that like a lot of mental energy went into like understanding the technicalities of game stop where it's like oh you know like you could have a thesis about the company's turnout or you can be like oh like there's a gamma squeeze and a short squeeze there's all this like technical stuff that you can understand.

But like mostly it was like people online liked it and so they bought it and it went up, right?

Everything got kind of dumber.

And our current political environment has expanded that dramatically.

You know, I wrote, let's say last week now, about the U.S.

Consumer Financial Protection Group, the CFPB, right?

Like has written some rules about how financial companies are supposed to interact with consumer customers.

And those rules have been sort of suspended by everyone at the CFPB being told to go home.

But like they're still there.

And so there's all this stuff you can look at and be like, oh, like the rules say this or like this is like how you're supposed to do stuff.

But like it's not clear that how you're supposed to do stuff matters anymore or that the rules are enforceable.

And so we're in this sort of weird gray area where like if you try too hard to understand what is allowed or how things work, you will be making mistakes because like things don't work the way they're supposed to work and the rules don't necessarily apply anymore.

And that's a frustrating position to be in if you're in the business of trying to understand things.

How does it make you feel as a person who writes a newsletter, though?

Because it seems like you had fun with the GameStop era.

I did have fun with the GameStop era, but it ate at me because I was like, I wish I had insight to offer.

They have only jokes.

Well, when all else fails, at least we can laugh.

We still have our laughter.

Yeah, sort of.

No, like, yeah, I don't know.

I mean, like, as a person who writes a newsletter, like, there are always events, but they are not interesting events.

Yeah.

I mean, there's a parallel to be drawn with my life on TV.

News is always happening.

I anchor from 9 to 11, and there's just so many tape bombs coming across all the time.

But, you know, you have to wonder at the end of the day, like,

did I add value?

I wonder every day.

I can't answer this question on this podcast.

Cool.

Great question.

Mailbag.

Mailbag.

I like this one.

This question comes from Bruce.

It's a little bit of a long one, so tuck in.

Bruce says, I'm intrigued by your recent coverage.

So stick with us.

All right, Bruce.

Bruce says, I'm intrigued by your recent coverage of super-performing private investment funds stuffed heavily with techies.

For my spy novel, I invented a tech-heavy hedge fund whose principals are former CIA contractors who go from stealing oligarch secrets to stealing oligarch cash, which they then launder through a private fund whose operations are a black box to the outside world.

My villains reverse engineer capital market data to fake trade reports for their tame auditor that explained the funds' quote-unquote returns.

I'm not accusing the funds you wrote about of anything nefarious.

I'm just struck by how much they resemble the fictional high-tech, high-return MacGuffin in my book.

Is that crazy?

Is there a reason a real-world operator with bad intentions couldn't take, say, the cash from his cocaine business and report it as fictional market returns from a proprietary model investment fund, pay some tax, and then have untraceable money to spend just asking the question and not for legal advice.

Bruce, don't give away this gold material as someone who's also working on a kooky novel.

You know, you can't say too much.

Have you not described your entire novel on this podcast?

What did you have off-mic?

Off-mike, for sure.

It's a little bit like Bernie Madoff, Madoff, right?

Like, it's a little different, but like Bernie Madoff pretended to have investing returns and in fact had, you know, Ponzi returns.

And people who were knowledgeable noticed that and said, he can't really have these investment returns.

Someone is just like, he was doing more pretend volume than there was volume in the stocks he was pretending to trade.

Right.

And so you have a little of that here.

If you were in the business of like

selling drugs

and then taking the money and pretending the money was returns from your hedge fund, you would be reporting to a regulator something about your trades.

And the regulator would be like, but you don't have a custodian.

You don't have audited financial.

And maybe you bribe your auditor and maybe the SEC is fooled as they kind of were with Bernie Manoff.

But it seems like a lot of

effort to go through and a lot of like.

surface area for regulatory exposure.

Yeah.

And you'd probably rather run like a coin-op laundromat or something, right?

Yeah.

There's a lot of ways to launder money that don't involve like entering a regulated industry.

So Bruce, I do want you to keep in touch, though.

Let's see where this goes.

Yes.

As you get further along with the novel, I would love to know the title.

He's not like the only person who's ever thought this.

A while back, there was like a kerfuffle when

someone...

speculated that Bridgewater might be a Bonzu scheme because they like weren't trading with like someone who they expected them to be trading with.

People have this with Tether too, where they're like, who trades with Tether?

Where do they get all their stuff from?

But those things seem to be wrong.

Yeah, I don't think Bridgewater is a Ponzi scheme.

No, I don't either.

Okay, good.

There was a minute where people were like, Oh, that's interesting.

I feel like some of those Tether questions are still out there.

Yeah, great question, Bruce.

Good luck with the novel.

Maybe people have had this thought before, but turns out it's really hard to actually write a novel.

So I respect that.

Almost as hard as making money and quant trading.

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Mailbag.

Mailbag.

One more from Andy.

Let's bring it home.

Andy says, Matt's newsletter today mentioned how financial advice was traditionally bundled, where the overpriced stock picking paid for the useful advice.

This reminded me of a dumb question I've had for years.

Why doesn't anyone offer unbundled financial advice on a fee-for-service basis?

I want to pay someone a fixed fee to chat with me once per quarter about my goals, asset allocation, tax considerations, when I can retire, etc.

cetera.

But as far as I can tell, and I've looked, no one offers these services without bundling them with money management services, where the fee structure is a percent of AUM.

And then they charge like 1% of AUM, which feels like a lot.

It sounds like Vanguard is offering a cheaper version of this for like 20 basis points of AUM, an improvement.

But if I have like $5 million to invest, that works out to $2,500 per quarterly Zoom call or whatever.

Seems like a bit expensive.

Anyway, does unbundled financial advice exist?

I feel like it must a little bit, but like, right, there's not a lot.

And you see why it's like the opposite of his problem, right?

Like if you're offering Zoom calls to people to talk about their hopes and dreams and portfolio allocations.

Yeah.

And you do four Zoom calls a year with that person, you have to like market yourself.

You have to find hundreds of clients.

And you have to amortize the cost of that over the Zoom calls.

You do have to charge them hundreds or thousands of dollars for the Zoom call because that's just your time on the Zoom call.

It's your time like marketing and like, you know, building the business.

And then, like, who wants to pay $1,000 for a Zoom call when you put it like that, right?

Yeah.

If you put it as like, I'll provide you holistic services in exchange for a small percentage of your assets, then people are like, yeah, sure.

And if the small percentage is more percent, it works out to thousands of dollars.

But I don't know.

Like, you don't get into the financial services industry to like bill a capped amount for your hours.

Like, you want the ability to scale.

And it's also it's like a natural form of price discrimination where like if you get a small client you can charge them a small amount of money because you're charging them a fixed percentage of assets under management and if they then grow into a large client you charge them a large amount of money and they don't notice because it's the same percentage of assets under management and it's just like a better business model for someone who is like you know kind of largely in the business of marketing and finding clients that just seems like the answer right like it seems like a bad business model for someone to be in to be like, I'll give you some financial advice for an hour for 100 bucks.

Like, I just don't think you can make a living doing that.

I will say that Andy found a solution.

So, he continues, I think I found a workaround.

I signed up for a wirehouse financial advisor who charges like 1% of AUM, but I only pay him for the accounts I keep with him, which I keep around the minimum.

He'll tolerate.

Andy's not the only person who has done this.

Like, you know, you find a financial advisor, you're like, how much do I need to put with you?

He tells you, five hundred thousand dollars you put five hundred thousand dollars with him for the rest of the money in index funds you know in like your self-directed vanguard account and then you call your financial advisor every quarter for advice right so you get like a lot of the tax advice and whatever that you get from the bundled fee but you're not paying him one percent of all of your assets you're paying him one percent of the minimum amount of assets to get him on the phone doesn't that feel a little mean to the financial advisors like hey i have this sum with you, but I have like two million dollars in my Vanguard account.

Give me advice based on my holistic

i don't think the financial advisor would like give you advice based

i don't think the financial advisor would be like oh here's what you should do with your vanguard account right yeah well what you're looking for from the financial advisor is not only like what should my asset allocation be yeah by the way he'll give you that i hate to like undermine financial advisor

He'll give you a thing being like, this is how much you should have in stocks or bonds, right?

And you can believe that or not, right?

Because

not like the financial advisor knows that and you don't, right?

But like, whatever.

They're probably buying a a model portfolio from BlackRock.

So sure.

They've got some professional deciding how much you should have in stocks and bonds or whatever.

And like they'll tell you that, and they'll do that with the portfolio they manage.

And then you can mirror that with your Vanguard account, right?

You know, kind of more or less.

I just feel, though, that.

It's rude to mirror it, exactly.

It's rude, but also I feel like maybe you'd invest differently if you have more money rather than less.

If that makes sense.

Maybe.

I think that the only way to really know is, you know, if Andy would let us listen to one of these phone calls that he has with his financial advisor.

But the other thing I was going to say is, like, you're not mainly looking for advice about how to invest.

Yeah.

You're looking for advice about

tax harvesting.

You're looking for advice about what the gift tax limits are on putting money into a 529.

You're looking for advice about how much money you'll need to save for retirement.

Like you've all this stuff that a financial advisor does that is useful for you.

That is not like, here's how much you should have in stock.

I know, but I'm saying.

But that's the least useful part.

Yeah.

Like, no one knows.

But, like, retirement planning, for example, like, it would probably be useful if the financial advisor had a holistic view at all of your portfolios.

That's right.

Yeah.

That's right.

And some financial advisors will consider all of your money and providing you that advice, even though not all of it is with them.

Because, like, you know, there's like Andy's not the only person who like has money elsewhere, right?

And the financial advisor tries to give you a holistic picture.

And like, they'll be mad if like most of your money is elsewhere and you're calling them every day.

But like, it's not like all or or nothing.

True.

So I don't know.

That's the way to do it.

Good question, Andy.

Good, good question and good answer.

Yeah.

Solve the conundrum.

Right, no.

Like, I mean, like, there's some minimum that the financial advisor charges.

And if you have that minimum with them, you're paying a certain number of thousands of dollars a year for your quarterly Zoom call with them.

And that's the going rate for financial advice.

And if you have 100 times the minimum with them, then you're paying more.

And you could put 99% of that money into a Vanguard self-tracted account and pay less.

But like, you don't want that.

You're paying for a service.

Yeah.

All right.

All right.

Well, that was our mailbag episode.

And what a good reminder it is to always send us questions.

We love questions.

You send us questions.

And that was the Money Stuff Podcast.

I'm Matt Levine.

And I'm Katie Greifeld.

You can find my work by subscribing to the Money Stuff newsletter on Bloomberg.com.

And you can find me on Bloomberg TV every day on Open Interest between 9 to 11 a.m.

Eastern.

We'd love to hear from you.

You can send an email to moneypod at bloomberg.net.

Ask us a question and we might answer it on air.

You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave us a review.

It helps more people find the show.

The Money Stuff Podcast is produced by Anna Mazarakis and Moses Andong.

Our theme music was composed by Blake Maples.

Brendan Francis Newnam is our executive producer.

And Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

Thanks Thanks for listening to the Money Stuff Podcast.

We'll be back next week with more stuff.

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