Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.

One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls.

In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.

The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that’s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out.
The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility.

To explain what’s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Sue Maillot
Editor: Richard Vadon