Transgender Issue Unites Voters Ahead of Midterms | 4.13.25

A new poll suggests the transgender issue continues to be a liability for Democrats. In this episode, we speak to the pollster tracking the issue about how much of a swing this one issue could have in 2026.
I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's Sunday, April 13th, and this is Morning Wire.
Joining us to discuss the new poll is Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project. Are you looking for a better quality meat? Good Ranchers delivers 100% American beef, chicken, and wild-caught seafood straight to your door.
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Terry, thanks so much for coming on.

Thanks for having me.

I'm excited to be here.

So I want to discuss this poll

that you just did with your organization,

American Principles Project. You commissioned this looking forward to the 2026 midterms.
Can you tell me a little bit about the poll and what you were looking to learn? Yeah, so we wanted to find out where Americans are at in the debate over transgender ideology, especially when it comes to federal government spending. We wanted to see if Americans want more spending or if they don't want any spending at all.
And what we found was that a whopping 65% of America does not want federal tax dollars to be going towards any type of transition surgeries or hormone treatments at all. In fact, when they find out that a politician that represents them supports taxpayer funding of these gender transition surgeries, even for children or adults, that they're much less likely to support them, even 52% less likely to support them.
Now, what's the goal of the American Principles Project, and how are you intending to use this data? Well, we want to protect children. We want to protect parental rights.
We call ourselves the NRA, but for families. And then we want to be the special interest arm of the American family.
And so what we're hoping to do is cut all of these federal expenditures that are pushing transgenderism on our children, both in schools, but also most directly in hospitals and in surgery centers. We did a whole study on the transgender industry as a whole, and this is just surgeries and hormone treatments.
And right now it's a four and a half billion dollar industry. And what's dangerous about that is that they are taking the profits from that four and a half billion and they're reinvesting it in lobbying and legislation and PR campaigns.
And they're using this to get to our kids' hearts and minds. So we want to protect our children.
And right now, the best opportunity to do that is to defund all of these transition-related surgeries and hormone treatments that the federal taxpayers have been funding. Now, you mentioned that they're taking these billions and putting them back into lobbying.
Has that dovetailed with an increase in support for their cause? Or what are we seeing in terms of trends of how Americans feel about the transgender issue? Well, what's interesting is that the more that Americans are exposed to transgender ideology, more specifically the transgender industry's agenda, the more they oppose it. In fact, prior to this last election in 2024, according to CNN's polling, 67% of Americans didn't want men and girls sports.
But you fast forward to the day that President Trump signed his executive order into law to protect girls sports,

and that had jumped up to over 78% of Americans wanting men out of girls sports. So the more that America is exposed to the transgender industry's agenda for them, the more they oppose it.
In the cross tabs, you can find that 42% of Democrats and 43% of Kamala Harris voters also agree that tax dollars should not be spent on gender transitions. Do you think that this is a weighty enough issue, though, for them to reconsider their vote? There are already several Democrats who are publicly entertaining the idea of moderating on the issue of transgenderism for their party, specifically when it comes to sports.
Gavin Newsom did an interview with Charlie Kirk just a few weeks ago where he advocated for getting men out of girls' sports. We'll see what happens.
I'm not very hopeful or optimistic that he'll actually do anything about it. But I do think that Democrats are understanding the political moment that they're in and the political avalanche that they're about to suffer if they keep pushing these policy agendas so hard on the American people.
Now, when Trump won the White House in November, this did rank surprisingly high as an issue. Obviously, it wasn't top one or two, but we did learn from various studies that it did sway some of those middle voters.
Do you think that it's maintained that level of interest for voters or do you think it's falling in the rankings in terms of how important this is for people? So it's important for your viewers to understand that as important as these issues are, they still only work on the margin. And it just depends on how big that margin is.
Since we've been measuring it, the margin of shifting in the electorate on this issue is between three and seven percent. Seven percent being very, very high and very impactful.
That's a lot of voters that are switching to join the Republican side of things. I think that this issue, until it's solved, until we've taken care of it for the American people, it will continue to shift voters to the Republican side by a three to seven point margin, depending on the race, which is quite sizable.
I mean, this is anti-biology, anti-truth, the agenda that's coming from the transgender industry

and from the left. And so I think it'll always be powerful and move people to the good side.

It's just a matter of how hot the issues are. Now, you mentioned that voters oppose

spending tax dollars on transitions for both minors and adults. I know maybe 10 years ago,

when this issue first came into the fray, people mostly said, just let adults do what they want. And you even saw some of that attitude towards children.
Do you think, or is there evidence that people are souring on the concept of transitioning even for people over 18? Yes, there's some souring over that. I think it's the broader agenda overall.
I think Americans are sick and tired of hearing about it nonstop. I think this agenda is very much overrepresented and it's in much lower demand than what the supply is.
And that's what the American people are rejecting. But the polling has been pretty consistent regarding surgeries and hormone treatments.
the American people want to protect children, and mostly they want to defer things to the adults to make their own decisions. But when it comes to taxpayer funding, that's a whole other realm of issues.
Americans don't want to participate in this. And if you want to get these surgeries, well, fine, but you at least have to pay for it yourself.
Now, you brought up Gavin Newsom, who recently pivoted on this issue. I think a lot of people are watching him with the suspicion that he's making a play for a presidential run in the future.
Do you think that the smart Democrat move is to differentiate on this issue? And if he did that, do you think he'd have a chance? I think it's a very smart move for any Democrat to start moderating on this issue very early on. They are in a difficult spot, though, because they have to choose between their base and the swing voters.
The swing voters don't want this transgender industry or its agenda. But the base of the Democratic Party, it's the 20 to 30 percent base of the party, they have been radicalized on this, largely because of the Democrats' rhetoric on this.
They have made this transgender issue an issue of life and death. They've created hysteria over it.
And so they need to start walking this back. They need to start toning down the fires at a minimum.
We did the poll because we wanted to show members of Congress on both the left and the right that Americans want this stuff defunded. They don't want their tax dollars going towards it.
We work very hard for our money. And the last thing that we want to be paying for are sex changes for anyone, adults, but especially children.
And so it's a very big, important thing that if we have $36 trillion of debt, rather than having to force ourselves to cut Social Security or Medicare someday, let's start cutting this extraneous stuff now, like sex changes for kids, like sex changes for adults, so that we can have enough resources to take care of those that really need the help, like our seniors and like our veterans. All right.
Well, it's going to be very

interesting to see how Democrats thread this needle going forward in 2026 and beyond.

Terry, thank you so much for coming on. Anytime.
Thank you so much.

That was Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project.

And this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.