Meta Monopoly Verdict, Trump Signs the Epstein Bill, and Nvidia's Q3 Earnings

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Speaker 2 Wicked forever, wicked for God help us.

Speaker 4 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Speaker 2 I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway.

Speaker 4 How you doing, Scott? Are you rested and back in London?

Speaker 2 Yeah, I'm back in London. I wouldn't describe myself as rested, but I feel pretty good.
How are you?

Speaker 4 Good. Very good, actually.
I'm glad to be.

Speaker 4 I took one more trip to Las Vegas, but now I'm... Are you shitting me? No, I'm not shitting you.
Don't talk to me. You were in the lake.

Speaker 2 Back from D.C. to Vegas?

Speaker 4 Yeah, but now I'm back. I'm back until March.
I'm not traveling until March, really, except for the holidays.

Speaker 2 That doesn't count. It worries me how much you travel.

Speaker 4 Yes, I know. I know.
I know. It does.
I like that you worry about me. Yeah.

Speaker 2 And what did you do in Vegas?

Speaker 4 Just a speech. Just a speech.
And I thought about going to the sphere, Scott, and I didn't do it.

Speaker 2 Oh, The Wizard of Oz is supposed to be amazing.

Speaker 4 I know. I was just too tired.

Speaker 2 I think that's literally why mushroom chocolates were invented. I'm sorry, The Wizard of Oz in color at the sphere.
You got to think half the people in that place are tripping on something.

Speaker 4 Yeah. You know, speaking of mushroom chocolates, oddly enough, someone gave one to me

Speaker 4 and I

Speaker 4 a year, a year ago or more, and I found it the other day and I threw it out. I threw it out.
It doesn't work.

Speaker 2 So just to be serious for a second, as someone who occasionally indulges in like edibles,

Speaker 2 you know, you have to be really careful with kids around the house. It's okay now that they're teens, but young kids see something that looks like candy.

Speaker 2 I don't know if you remember this, but an ass been all these people, when edibles first became a thing, were buying gummies and they look like, you know, they look like candy.

Speaker 2 And a lot of the services staff was taking them home and their kids were eating like, you know, four, you know, 50 milligrams of THC gummies.

Speaker 2 So sales of Doritos and viewership of South Park just skyrocketed.

Speaker 4 No, I got rid of that. That's precisely why I got rid of them.
I was like, I just was cleaning out a drawer and I was like, oh, see, now is my time.

Speaker 4 Now that we're not traveling and there's a calmer period of time for me, I can now clean out drawers. That's what I do.
I love to clean out a drawer.

Speaker 2 Yeah, you like to clean, right?

Speaker 4 I do. It's really very, very therapeutic for me.
That's my form of therapy. It really is.
I feel very

Speaker 2 help. That's my

Speaker 4 estate.

Speaker 4 How's the weather there?

Speaker 2 How do you think it is? Guess it's London.

Speaker 4 Gray. Gray.
Yeah. I don't think I could take that.

Speaker 4 And I don't mind gray weather.

Speaker 2 Well, you know, why penises look like mushrooms?

Speaker 4 Oh my God. You mean Trump's penis? But go ahead.
Why?

Speaker 2 Because they grow on fun guys, in it. Fun guys.

Speaker 2 Oh. Like fungi, fun guys?

Speaker 4 But they're not fun. They're mad because they have a mushroom-shaped penis, right? Can I ask you a question? All right.
This is a penis question, a serious one.

Speaker 2 Which I have deep domain expertise in.

Speaker 4 Well, you do compared to me. I've seen when my older sons were younger, I've seen them.
I've seen my younger sons. I'm going to stop seeing it at some point, hopefully relatively soon.

Speaker 4 There was this, obviously, there's a story about Trump having a Trump, having a mushroom-shaped penis, which I don't understand because I've never seen such a thing.

Speaker 4 And apparently, Jeffrey Epstein has a lemon-shaped, had a lemon-shaped one. There was a whole bunch of stories.
Are there a lot of shaped penis, weird-shaped penises?

Speaker 4 I don't, I didn't think that was the case. I know it's a real question.
I was sort of curious.

Speaker 4 Being neither a gay man nor a straight man, because straight men see other people's penises, right? In the gym, et cetera.

Speaker 2 Kara, while I'm not an expert on what penises look like, I am an expert on what they taste like.

Speaker 4 Hello, daddy.

Speaker 4 And I was curious. There's all these stories lately about these shapes.
And I'm like, what? I mean, it looks like a lemon. Like, I just, I'm very perplexed.
I have to say.

Speaker 2 First off, I think a lot of that, quite frankly, is bullshit. And that is people who just hate these people.
And so they make.

Speaker 4 No, these were in court.

Speaker 4 These were in court.

Speaker 2 court oh wait bill clinton supposedly had one that bent to the left

Speaker 4 right this was all in court this was not like idle gossip so i just i've noticed they're recently in a lot of stories i don't know why but i just thought i'd ask i i have a legitimate thing instead of being in ignorance look there's a reason why i tell men when i coach men i don't think a man should ever send ever send out a picture of his junk.

Speaker 2 I just think aesthetically, a man's junk is just not that attractive. All right.

Speaker 4 Whereas

Speaker 2 the female form is beautiful.

Speaker 2 The only thing I would say that I know about penises is that your nose, your penis, and your ears are the only three things that are independent of the size of the rest of your body.

Speaker 2 So it's a bit of a dealer's choice when a man takes off his pants. You don't know.
But you know what a woman says to a guy with a big dick. What?

Speaker 2 Me neither.

Speaker 4 Me neither, Kara.

Speaker 2 Me neither. And you know why Mary Poppins stopped wearing lipstick while giving head.
Oh, God.

Speaker 2 Apparently Apparently, the super color fragile lipstick makes the dicks atrocious.

Speaker 2 That's good.

Speaker 4 That's good. Okay.

Speaker 4 That's good.

Speaker 4 Finally. Kara hates herself for laughing.

Speaker 4 I have a science. No, that was a good one.

Speaker 4 Let me say that was a very good one. Finally, you finally told a good penis joke.
I actually was just noticing this. Let me move on to something much more interesting.
I went to, I did do something.

Speaker 4 I went to,

Speaker 4 Amanda and the kids and I went to the premiere of Wicked for Good in New York, and it was cool. It was at Lincoln South.

Speaker 4 Oh, my God.

Speaker 2 I just have one more, Kara.

Speaker 4 What? Okay. Okay.

Speaker 2 So I'm not sure.

Speaker 4 Let's try to move on here, but go ahead.

Speaker 2 I'm not sure that my girlfriend has a dick, but

Speaker 2 something inside of me is telling me yes.

Speaker 4 Oh, God.

Speaker 4 Okay. All right.
That wasn't, you know,

Speaker 4 super cali fraudulent.

Speaker 2 I could do this all night. No, let's not.

Speaker 4 Let's not. Let's not.
But I'm serious. I saw Wicked.
I'm trying to change it. Wicked for Good was amazing, I have to say.
It's a play? It's a movie. It's a sequel.
It's like going to be an enormous.

Speaker 4 Oh, God, there's a sequel now?

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 2 Make them stop.

Speaker 4 No, there's literally.

Speaker 2 I think they should outlaw sequels.

Speaker 4 Huge box office this year.

Speaker 4 Best sequel in history, hands down? No, actually, it's really quite good. The music isn't as good, but Ariana Grande, I have to say, is those ladies are astonishing.
The premiere was fun.

Speaker 2 Wicked forever, wicked for God help us.

Speaker 4 I saw many Comcast executives, which was interesting.

Speaker 4 Oh, you know who came up to me at this premiere? Claire Daines, who I love in the Beast Tale.

Speaker 2 Oh, one of my favorite shows.

Speaker 4 It's amazing. And she was a fan of ours.

Speaker 4 She listens to Pivot. And I was so thrilled because the person,

Speaker 4 what was the thing she was in when she was young?

Speaker 2 Brian Kate. My so-called life.

Speaker 4 Yes. The person who did that did

Speaker 4 the book for this. Winnie Holzman.
I think that's her name.

Speaker 4 So she was there to support her. But let me say, I loved it.
I have to say, I recommend everyone go see it. It was great.
I thought it was very dark. And can I make one observation about it?

Speaker 4 It is not about the Trump administration because it was written way back when. It's about dictatorships, but it is so pertinent right now.
It feels kind of isn't it?

Speaker 4 Right, but it isn't.

Speaker 4 No, no, they finished it in January 2024. So I think they finished the film because they did them together.
Anyway, I highly recommend it. Universal, Donna Langley has another hit on our hands.

Speaker 2 Well, you know, I want a dick measuring colour.

Speaker 4 Okay, we're going to move on.

Speaker 4 Go ahead.

Speaker 2 I did. I did.
I measured more dicks than anyone else.

Speaker 4 Okay. We've got a lot to get to.
I just asked a simple question because I was curious.

Speaker 2 And I, as you said, you literally opened Pandora's. I know what I'm asking.
And now you're like,

Speaker 2 what happened?

Speaker 4 I didn't mean to.

Speaker 4 I just wanted some information. Other people, please write us so I understand this.

Speaker 4 We've got a lot to get to today, including the Meta Monopoly verdict, which sort of got lost in the sauce, and Trump signing with all this news and Trump signing the bill to release the Epstein files.

Speaker 4 But first, this is NVIDIA's shares shares are up around 3% at the time of taping after beating expectations for the third quarter earnings.

Speaker 4 The AI chipmaker reported a record $57 billion in revenue and a big, a big chunk from one company. It's got to be meta, and a 65% jump in profits.

Speaker 4 CEO Jensen Wong addressed concerns about an AI bubble, saying, from our vantage point, we're seeing something very different.

Speaker 4 Although

Speaker 4 Suner Pachai kind of alluded to it about bubble fears. And in new partnerships, NVIDIA and Microsoft are pouring money into Anthropic, raising the AI startup's valuation to $350 billion.

Speaker 4 Microsoft will invest $5 billion. NVIDIA will invest $10 billion again.
Not a big amount of money for these people.

Speaker 4 And it's a huge valuation. And also, Elon Musk is raising it an enormous valuation.
So talk a little bit about these results because Michael Burry got killed, right?

Speaker 4 The short sellers got killed on this thing.

Speaker 2 Well, the entire, literally the entire economy is a huge sigh of relief because the narrative had shifted just in a few weeks from AI boom to AI bubble.

Speaker 2 And this popped the AI bubble narrative, at least for the time being. Revenue came in at 57 versus 55, and those were very aggressive expectations.

Speaker 2 Their data center revenue came in at 51.2 versus expected 49.3.

Speaker 2 Their adjusted earnings, their diluted earnings per share, came in at 130 versus expectations of 1.30. So basically, it was a beat on very aggressive expectations.
And they also guided up.

Speaker 2 They're now saying their Q4 revenue guidance is 65 versus 62 billion,

Speaker 2 up 5%.

Speaker 2 And also, what's really impress, I think the most impressive thing is

Speaker 2 they've taken the guidance on their margins up to 75% from 74%.

Speaker 2 74.6%. I would have thought they'd be coming under some pricing pressure.
Right. Yeah.
And margin compression.

Speaker 2 And then their sales growth accelerated to 63%, which is enormous, but it broke a six-quarter streak of deceleration of sales growth. And then to your point, everything got lifted.

Speaker 2 Tesla was up 1.5%, Microsoft One, Meta One, Amazon 1.6, and Alphabet 2.

Speaker 4 They'd been declining. Let's be clear for people.

Speaker 2 Yeah, but

Speaker 4 not really a lot.

Speaker 4 Oracle is really down. Like it lost all its gains, but go ahead.

Speaker 2 So this is, I mean, this is basically, as we said, the economy, and I hate this about our economy right now.

Speaker 2 And to a certain extent, the Trump administration's cloud cover is really being propped up by these 10 companies. And so the fact that

Speaker 2 it just, the narrative was not supported here. And the market was looking, there's just no getting around it.

Speaker 2 The market seemed to be really grasping for evidence that the AI bubble narrative was, had some veracity to it. And they didn't get it in this earnings call.
They just didn't get it.

Speaker 4 I still am nervous about, I've been reading up a lot, you know, as you know, you introduced Andrew Rosorkin for his book and some others.

Speaker 4 And there's some very persuasive Bill Cohen wrote a very persuasive piece about possible bust coming, you know, and as you said, it can run up before the bust, right?

Speaker 4 And these sort of echoes of this issue.

Speaker 4 You know, it's interesting because they were all at this NBS event at the White House, and then there was an ensuing Saudi whatever afterwards.

Speaker 4 Like, to me, I feel like, I mean, if Jensen Wong was any closer to Trump, he'd be on the other side of him, right? So they have this sort of grip together that they have to have, right?

Speaker 4 This company, this particular company has to have. And he's certainly playing it.
You know, he's, you know, he's, he's using every card in the book to do this.

Speaker 4 Do you, what is your worry? So we talked about this on the tour of this worry of it being particularly this company

Speaker 4 and the companies around it, which are all benefiting from it. Do you still have a worry about it or is it just pushed off to another day? Because it still is,

Speaker 4 the numbers still don't, math doesn't math here eventually at some point.

Speaker 2 My worry is the following that

Speaker 2 the definition of a robust economy is that no one company can take it down.

Speaker 4 Broad, a broad-based.

Speaker 2 If McDonald's, the fast food industry is a robust industry.

Speaker 2 If the biggest player at McDonald's went out of business tomorrow, you would still be able to find cheap calories at a variety of places, and the economy would not be taken down.

Speaker 2 JP Morgan is probably so big now. JP Morgan is now worth more than the 10 biggest banks in Europe combined.

Speaker 2 And if Jamie Dimon called President Trump or Bassett and said, Oh, God, you're not going to believe this story, guys.

Speaker 2 There was some rogue trader, and somehow we missed it in compliance and figured out a way to lever it all up. And we're $110 billion down, and I need a bailout.

Speaker 2 If he would ever make that call, and I don't, I think it's unlikely because I think since Sarbanes-Oxley and stress testing, I think that they did a really good job post-2008 of creating a sort of a Goldilocks

Speaker 2 compliance structure, famous last words, something's going to happen tomorrow, where there's enough, they allow them enough leverage such that they can continue to grow the economy and loan out more money than they take in while constantly stress testing for a black swan event.

Speaker 2 But you can never,

Speaker 2 but the bottom line is, JP, if Jamie Dimon were to make that call, Trump would have no choice but to bail them out. Because if JP Morgan goes down, the domino effect would be terrible here.

Speaker 2 So you could argue that

Speaker 2 the banking industry is not robust. Our economy right now is riding on a small number of companies based on the expectations that AI will be bigger than GPS or the Internet.

Speaker 2 And the thing that worries me is that every one of the companies we talk about has been down 50 to 70 percent or more in a 12-month period in the last five or seven years. They just have hiccups.

Speaker 2 And the problem is these companies now

Speaker 2 command such an enormous part of the S ⁇ P.

Speaker 4 Very similar to the 1929 crash.

Speaker 2 And in addition, as a percentage of as

Speaker 2 historical PE averages or the Buffett test, they just seem so expensive.

Speaker 2 And where we are is, if just through the natural cycle, even if you agree AI, as I do, is going to be huge and pay all sorts of dividends and build great companies.

Speaker 2 If NVIDIA sneezes, the world gets freaking stage four or walking pneumonia. It doesn't catch a cold because unfortunately, our demographics have become less robust.

Speaker 2 And that is now the top 10% represent 50% of spending. And the bad news about that is that if a middle-class household's confidence goes down or their income goes down, their spending goes down.

Speaker 2 But so much of their spending is things they have to spend money on, food, housing, that it affects the economy.

Speaker 2 But if the top 10% all of a sudden get a chill because their stock portfolio is off 40%,

Speaker 2 they can take their discretionary span down 50%.

Speaker 4 Right. Not just that, or out of the stock market.
Like I have stock holdings and I thought, I'm going to, there seems to be,

Speaker 4 it's this sort of vague worry, I guess. And the new partnerships of them pouring money into each of these companies, it still feels like they're all profitable.
Probably 99 circular bushes. Exactly.

Speaker 4 I was like, what is happening here?

Speaker 4 And I wish I, you know, we should bring Bill Cohen on to explain it to us, but these fundings seem some, they're just using the money they get to get other money to keep the valuation.

Speaker 2 It's fly to hand.

Speaker 4 I'll invest this money in the middle of the year. That's what it feels like.

Speaker 2 But you got to spend it all on me. It's circular deals.
Yeah, it's not.

Speaker 2 They're all in club deals. We did in the late 90s.
I'm not exaggerating.

Speaker 2 Someone would call me another, another, I was starting internet companies, and a bunch of us used to call each other and say, I'm doing a round where you put in 50 or 100 grand.

Speaker 2 And the expectation was you'd put 50 or 100 grand back into their next round.

Speaker 2 And the problem is, we all kind of woke up and realized we were buying each other's products. And when, so when

Speaker 2 one of us went down, it just took all of us down.

Speaker 4 Yeah, that's my

Speaker 2 so there was like it works on the way up. It's like, it's like borrowing, it's like buying stocks on margin.
It's fantastic as long as things continue to go up.

Speaker 2 It's especially not fantastic when things start to go down. But I'm the unwind here is pretty obvious.
Big traditional company. We're scaling back our AI investment.

Speaker 2 We're reducing our site licenses and

Speaker 2 OpenAI and Anthropic. NVIDIA reports a down quarter.
And you see

Speaker 2 an enormous drawdown. And then a small number of people controlling a disproportionate amount of the economy substantially check back their spending.
And boom, we are in a recession like overnight.

Speaker 2 And it could, the fear fear is, does it create panic selling?

Speaker 4 So,

Speaker 2 look, it's coming. We just don't know when.

Speaker 4 Yeah, well, it's coming. Yeah, and of course, they were all at that dinner, the MBS dinner, to like, it was all tech people.
I mean, it was mostly tech people. Elon, of course, was.

Speaker 2 That made a lot of news, didn't it?

Speaker 4 Yeah, I did. We'll get to that in a minute.

Speaker 4 But very quickly, Emeta scored, this is something that didn't get as much attention, a major victory in court with a federal judge ruling the company didn't break antitrust laws when it bought Instagram and WhatsApp.

Speaker 4 As I said, back in April, this was a weak trial,

Speaker 4 which I thought it was. And clearly the judge agreed because he listens to me.
No, I'm not, I'm kidding. I just thought this was a silly trial.

Speaker 4 And the judge said the government failed to prove Meta is currently a monopoly, noting that TikTok is now Meta's fiercest rival.

Speaker 4 The case dates back to 2020 when the FTC accused Meta of using buy or bury strategy to crush competition. These big antitrust suits have been mixed bags.

Speaker 4 So far, Google lost the search and advertising cases, though it didn't have to do anything. It didn't have to spin off Chrome.

Speaker 4 The Amazon and Apple trials are still a few years away, so it'll be a while before we know how those shake out. I would say Apple and Amazon are much more.
monopolistic than any of these others.

Speaker 4 And we're, you know, but the thing is, is it going to cause Meta to make a ton of acquisitions?

Speaker 4 And just remember, before the trial began, Mark Zuckerberg visited the White House, prostrated himself, and tried to lobby for a settlement. He didn't need to do that.

Speaker 4 Nice job, Mark, for prostrating yourself, but you didn't need to. The case was solid, like I thought it was at the time.

Speaker 4 And you know, I'm never on their side, but it was very clear there's competition.

Speaker 2 The gate on consolidation has traditionally been that economists of the FTC and the DOJ said there's going to be too much concentration of power, which will give you too much pricing power, which will result in a transfer of money from consumers to the shareholders of that monopoly.

Speaker 2 And monopolies themselves aren't illegal. It's monopoly power and monopoly abuse.

Speaker 2 So occasionally, when scale makes sense, they say, fine, you can have a monopoly on sell service or the utility, but we're going to regulate you to make sure you don't abuse that monopoly power. What

Speaker 2 you have right now is there is no gate.

Speaker 2 The FDC and the DOJ essentially have said it's a free-for-all.

Speaker 2 As far as I can tell, Jonathan Canter would disagree with me and say there's still people doing the work, but as far as I can tell, or the CEOs I talk to, they are sharpening their pencils, one, because they have very fully valued stock, which is like having a preloaded credit card that you can go out and go shopping for, right?

Speaker 2 So all of a sudden, everything in the eyes of Palantir is 90% off because their stock's up tenfold. So, if they do an acquisition for stock, it costs them a tenth of what it used to cost them.

Speaker 2 So, investment banking, MA, which had been in a deep freeze for several years, is now just booming. If I saw Terry Khaj at a party the other night, he's in MA.

Speaker 2 And I just knew, I got, I bet your business is amazing. And he's like, better than ever.

Speaker 2 Anyone in MA right now is turning away calls unless it's an enormous fee because A, companies have cash and stock to go shopping with, and B, they're not worried about antitrust.

Speaker 2 What's interesting is what has somewhat replaced the gating factor of FTC or DOJ review based on monopoly power has been replaced by this gating power of cronyism and oligarchy.

Speaker 2 Whereas like, I don't think Netflix can potentially or could potentially get a deal through to acquire Warner Brothers assets because Trump has decided he thinks Reed Hastings is a Democrat.

Speaker 4 Yeah, let's hold that because we're going to talk about that in a minute. But

Speaker 4 this case was weak. There's competition in Zamark Zuckerberg's world, correct?

Speaker 2 I mean, well, some data. Since the year Meta acquired WhatsApp, YouTube active users have doubled.
TikTok went from not existing to having 1.6 billion. LinkedIn users increased by roughly 4x.

Speaker 2 Snapchat users increased by more than 8x. And Meta's total daily active users increased by roughly 4x.
Now, I still believe these companies are too dominant.

Speaker 2 So, for example, with Meta, 3.5 billion people or 43% of the world's population use a meta product daily.

Speaker 2 Out of the top eight most used social media platforms globally, Meta owns four of them. And Meta garners 21% of all digital ad spend, more than any other social media company.

Speaker 4 It's the ad thing that I do think that's the case that's coming. Right.

Speaker 2 And I would argue that there's evidence of monopoly abuse here by virtue of the fact that they don't ever

Speaker 2 feel compelled. I would argue that

Speaker 2 the margin power and the monopoly power gets translates into what I call non-economic costs.

Speaker 2 And that is they can put out content that results in teen girls cutting themselves and they don't feel the onus to do anything.

Speaker 2 I think the rents that Meta is charging on parents around the world has accelerated dramatically and is more indicative of a company that's a monopoly and doesn't need to respond to anything, to concerns of anybody or anything here that is the cost that's where the real action should happen not here unfortunately um okay scott let's go on a quick break when we come back trump signs the epstein files bill and takes a victory lap

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Speaker 1 Scott, we're back.

Speaker 4 President Trump has signed the bill ordering the Justice Department to release the files on Jeffrey Epstein within the next 30 days.

Speaker 4 Trump is also taking credit for the bill, overwhelmingly passing through the House, whatever, Senate. But after this, the full files still might not get released.
The bill has some major loopholes.

Speaker 4 Before Trump signed the bill, Attorney General Pam Bondi was asked about the DOJ releasing the complete files. She didn't exactly give a straight answer.
What a shock from Blondie. Let's listen.

Speaker 5 We will continue to follow the law with maximum transparency while protecting victims.

Speaker 2 When you say follow the law, then Attorney General, do you mean that you will provide all the files by 30 days?

Speaker 5 We will follow the law.

Speaker 4 The law passed both chambers last evening.

Speaker 5 It has not yet been signed, but we will continue to follow the law again while protecting victims, but also providing maximum transparency.

Speaker 4 Anyone else saying that, I believe, she does not. She's going to follow the law, Scott.
The files remain a touchy subject for Trump.

Speaker 4 When Bloomberg's Catherine Lucy asked him about it on Air Force One this week, Trump snapped quiet, piggy.

Speaker 4 The White House official backed up Trump, saying, if you're going to give it, you have to be able to take it, I guess.

Speaker 4 Let's start with the release of the files.

Speaker 4 Will it finally put things to rest? And part of the ongoing fallout, people are paying the price. Larry Summers is stepping down from teaching at Harvard, where his ties to Epstein were investigated.

Speaker 4 He also resigned from OpenAI's board. Of course, he had a series of his how do I date this lady emails between him using Epstein as his dating advisor got out, and that was all it took for that.

Speaker 4 Thoughts on this? Because, I mean, I think it's a question of what's going to get out. I talked about this a little bit last night.

Speaker 4 It's a question of what they're going to to release, how they're going to release it, what's it going to say if they expunge things or try to favor Republicans over Democrats, et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 4 It's sort of everything's in the details. But I don't think he can, I think if he does something like that, he'll look even more guilty.

Speaker 2 But your thoughts? Well, first off, just how ridiculous it is that Trump wants to take credit for the release of the Epstein files while at the same time calling it a hoax.

Speaker 2 The ridiculous notion that they will continue to follow the law and be maximum transparent. The head of the FBI has already claimed that they released everything they could.

Speaker 2 And she has done nothing but be essentially an acolyte and an instrument.

Speaker 2 She's acting like his personal lawyer.

Speaker 2 They were doing anything they could. I've said the third most powerful person in the world is a dead pedophile who convinced Mike Johnson to let Congress

Speaker 2 tell Congress to go home because they were so afraid of a vote. He has denied democracy.

Speaker 2 He wouldn't seat a duly elected representative because he was worried that she was going to be the 183rd vote or whatever it is.

Speaker 2 They have done everything possible to try and delay the release of this, and it has done nothing but create this stench of guilt around the presidency.

Speaker 2 But even more bigger than this, last night I was reading through some of these emails. I think this is a really big moment.

Speaker 2 And not just for the reasons we think that it might implicate or embarrass the president or other people.

Speaker 2 I think this is that Caesar moment in Planet of the Apes where he says no and it inspires a revolution and reconfigures the social order or Tiananmen Square or

Speaker 2 the Arab Spring when that young man.

Speaker 4 I love that you use Planet of the Apes metaphor, but go ahead.

Speaker 2 By the way, when I was at Belmarr they gave me Planet of the Apes figures.

Speaker 4 Yeah, that's right. We love Planet of the Apes.
His producer did.

Speaker 2 You know that moment that inspires a revolution?

Speaker 2 i think this is it and it's not it's not even whether it should be or not that we might find out about the abhorrent aberrant weird behavior of certain individuals if you read these emails

Speaker 2 the thing that i think is going to that is going to make this a moment that inspires a pretty serious shifting the ground beneath us is that the tone and the vibe of these men is literally like, we can do whatever the fuck we want.

Speaker 4 Yes. Really? Yeah.

Speaker 4 No, but

Speaker 2 I think it's easy to be signal.

Speaker 4 I'm not significant.

Speaker 4 That's how they behave.

Speaker 2 I think I found it shocking. And I consider, I think I know some of these people pretty well.

Speaker 2 I think people are going to read this and go, that's it. We're done.
We're done with these billionaires talking about fucking space, about

Speaker 2 taking $9 billion

Speaker 2 from farmers, but finding $40 billion for Argentina, about cutting taxes for the rich, but taking away health care from 14 million Americans. And then they listen to the tone.

Speaker 2 It's one thing, when an individual has aberrant, illegal, strange, depraved behavior, you like to think it's ring-fenced to the fucked up mind of that person.

Speaker 2 But when you read these emails, you're like, this is a vibe.

Speaker 4 These people What would you call the vibe? What is it? Douche, nasal word. No, no, no.

Speaker 2 The word is entitled.

Speaker 4 Yeah.

Speaker 2 They feel like they are entitled to an entirely, it comes back to this one statement I love.

Speaker 2 These people think that they are protected by the law, but not bound by it, and that the rest of us are bound by the law, but not protected by it.

Speaker 2 And I think people are going to read these emails and just think, you know what? This is our let them meet cake moment. We have had it with these people.
And I think you're going to see

Speaker 2 a reconfiguration in tax policy. I think you could see

Speaker 2 for the first time a move towards socialized medicine. I think you're going to see a dramatic increase in tax rates.
I think people are, I think, this thing like, okay,

Speaker 2 something is wrong in Maudeville when we have a small number of powerful people.

Speaker 4 Strutting, strutting on the stage. I would agree.
It's so funny you say that because I'm going

Speaker 4 on

Speaker 4 the I've Had It podcast, and they're going to come on my podcast.

Speaker 4 And they've gotten very popular, which is, you know, it's Jennifer Welch and Angie Silver.

Speaker 2 That was on their podcast.

Speaker 4 Yeah, they're fun. I was on their podcast.

Speaker 2 They're fun ladies.

Speaker 4 But they are also tapping into something. Like, you've got to fucking be kidding me with these assholes.
Like, I think it's really, and they do it in a funny way, obviously.

Speaker 4 But one of the things as I was watching, and we will talk about the MBS thing is. Like, and then they went on their thing.
They can't shut the fuck up.

Speaker 4 And they strut around, whether it's Nvidia's CEO with his leather jacket, pontificating pontificating on all manner of things. And just they won't shut the fuck up.
That's what I kept thinking.

Speaker 4 Like, and they won't stop taking, right? They won't stop. They're like,

Speaker 4 I use the, the, the, the, the Beatles. Um, I put the picture of that dinner up with the Beatles thing.
It's piggies. They're little piggies.
Like, and that's what it feel.

Speaker 4 It's got a real piggy, piggish feel to it. And the quiet piggy, I thought was really, I mean, I know, you know, whatever, but can you imagine working at a workplace

Speaker 4 as someone a CEO saying that to an employee what would happen like what do you mean what the president quiet piggy yeah and then of course insulting Mary Bruce from ABC for asking a perfectly legitimate question about corruption like and also about the death of Jamal Khashoggi I just was like quiet piggy that to me

Speaker 4 That really, I think, infuriated so many people. And not because, how dare you call me, you know,

Speaker 4 a girl when I'm a woman. That wasn't that.
It was, there's something in the words that quiet and piggy together is something's really,

Speaker 4 it sort of encapsulates these people. But that,

Speaker 2 again, I think this is bigger than that.

Speaker 4 I think that

Speaker 2 a man who has demonstrated nothing but an immense lack of character, a level of misogyny, punching down, has no sense of the connection between prosperity and protection, is depraved, selfish.

Speaker 2 I really do think President Trump, and I don't use this word lightly, is going to be a stain on the American experience. He's going to be, the history books are just not going to be kind to him.

Speaker 2 But this is bigger than that. And also, I do think it's a little unfair, Kara, to conflate or include Jensen Huang as the same breath as these guys.

Speaker 4 No, but I'm talking about they won't stop dancing on the stage. They tend to be a dance.

Speaker 2 Jensen has to dance to support a $5 trillion valuation. Yes, I guess.
He's talking his own book. But an entirely different league of depraved and also more than an individual being

Speaker 2 very insecure and weird like President Trump. This culture where they all speak as if it's there's this underlying baseline assumption that they just get to live by a different set of rules.

Speaker 2 When I'm reading these emails, I'm like, oh, he's an idiot or, oh, God, this this person sounds weird or whatever.

Speaker 2 But you start to see this vibe across these people where it's like they have just decided that the rules no longer of decorum, of decency, no longer apply to them.

Speaker 4 Talk about Summers because, you know, he's a very, you know, he's a Democrat. He was a Democrat.
He's been very critical of President Trump. You know, for years, he's, he's very arrogant.

Speaker 4 He's a very, he has an enormous reputation for arrogance and rude remarks about women, et cetera, when he was at Harvard and women are stupider, essentially.

Speaker 4 And of course, he has, I think he's out now, right? I mean, it's really interesting.

Speaker 2 He's done.

Speaker 4 He's done. What do you think of this? I mean, if I was when I think I texted the open air, I'm not sure if I did.
I was like, he's off, right?

Speaker 4 I never loved it when he got on the board, but he was a weird choice, in my opinion. But

Speaker 4 what do you, why does he pay? It's really, and his, his emails were weird. You know, they were basically dating advice from Jeffrey Epstein.

Speaker 4 Weird enough, but why do you think he, he definitely is stepping down from Harvard off OpenAI board, and he's pretty much done? That would be my thing, correct?

Speaker 4 There's no returning from this, or maybe there is.

Speaker 2 Who knows? The problem is when the grenade explodes, there's not a lot of nuance in the shrapnel. And I would argue that,

Speaker 2 I mean, the temptation is just to pile on everyone here. You get accused of being an Epstein, a defender of Epstein.
And I'm not that.

Speaker 2 I think Larry demonstrated poor judgment and immaturity, but I don't think what he did was like even in the same fucking universe as what some of these people are being accused of.

Speaker 4 Yep, I agree.

Speaker 2 He's, he had poor judgment continuing to fraternize with a guy who is a convicted pedophile.

Speaker 4 Right.

Speaker 2 And he just looks stupid asking for dating advice. But, and also, I do think it's a little bit unfair.

Speaker 2 A lot of the research that he got a lot of shit for was citing differences in certain types of intelligence between the genders.

Speaker 2 And it wasn't that he was saying one gender, I don't believe, was less intelligent than the other. He got in trouble for just saying that they were different.

Speaker 4 Well,

Speaker 4 but in the email, you heard he was very clear.

Speaker 2 I get it, but can you imagine if all of your emails became bad?

Speaker 4 No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't want them.
That's what I thought. I thought, well, this is who's going to pay, this asshole.
I mean, I think he's arrogant.

Speaker 2 I think you're a very thoughtful.

Speaker 2 progressive person with great judgment. I think someone could look through every one of your emails and cherry cherry pick them and make you look really, really bad.

Speaker 4 Agreed. I wasn't asking dating advice from Jeffrey Epstein.
It's an unfortunate person.

Speaker 2 I get it. It's not the world's biggest tragedy that a 70-year-old man has to leave these boards and leave.
But quite frankly, he's like a little bit like Gary Hart.

Speaker 2 The earth has shifted beneath Larry Summers at exactly the wrong time.

Speaker 4 Exactly. That's what I was thinking.

Speaker 2 And I would argue that if these things came out

Speaker 2 in a different context two years ago or five years ago, it would be embarrassing and page six of posts but it wouldn't end his career no he's definitely standing on the crack as it opens i mean that's the thing and people don't like him right so it also adds that people aren't like well and he's a democrat and and so you can imagine that the republican operatives wanted want to this story to get as much oxygen to push out what should be real real stories of real people abusing children yep so i i don't want to say i feel sorry for larry but i don't think yeah i don't think this is a different, this is an embarrassing, stupid behavior of a tone-deaf, older man.

Speaker 2 It is not child abuse.

Speaker 4 No, I know. Well, that would be a good idea.

Speaker 2 So I think this is different. And I don't.
I agree.

Speaker 4 I just thought this was the one that, this is the guy that's going to get it, like this dumbass.

Speaker 2 This is the person they're going after? This is the press is focusing on a guy asking for data.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I think. Well, we'll see.
So how much stuff is going to come out? Even this short amount of stuff has done damage to

Speaker 4 very much has done damage to Trump. No question.
You know, this is what he's talking about all the time, right? This is what he, this is his topic of, of,

Speaker 4 this is his topic, let's just say, like, this is now what he's doing.

Speaker 4 So he, I don't think the shoes have dropped fully for Donald Trump on this issue yet, but a question of how much Pam Bondi, who's relatively incompetent, as you can tell by other cases, actually not relatively, she's completely incompetent.

Speaker 4 I feel like they're going to bollocks it and it's going to really come to slap Trump really hard on his see.

Speaker 2 The way I would describe Pam Bondi, unfortunately, she's more dangerous because I don't think she's incompetent. I think she's corrupt.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I don't think she's incompetent.

Speaker 2 I don't look at that case against Comey.

Speaker 4 Oh, my God.

Speaker 2 Oh, no, but that's the appointee who has no business.

Speaker 4 Right, but she's part of it. I mean, nothing gets turned off.
That's true. Right.
I think she's incompetent. I think she's not.
I don't think they're going to be able to cover it up.

Speaker 4 That's my feeling. I think it's going to be very hard to cover this stuff up.
It's getting out.

Speaker 4 It's getting out. It's just going to get out.

Speaker 2 This is how I feel about it.

Speaker 2 and i'll i'll push this question to you there's a chance that people are like okay

Speaker 2 am i going to go down is gop uh

Speaker 2 going to begin to stand for guardians of pedophiles and i do not

Speaker 2 I do not want to be one of these people. So now I'm going to flip and become aggressive, including disparaging the president if I need to.

Speaker 2 Is this a turning point where people are like, oh, fuck, I don't want to be an accomplice here. I'm going to start turning on the mob boss.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I think so. As I said, and that's what happens with all these people.
And actually, Thomas Massey made that point, the one who Scott pushed this through.

Speaker 4 I got to say, he really has a set to have pushed this through and been successful. Anyway,

Speaker 4 along with Rokana,

Speaker 4 Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about whether Elon Musk and Trump are getting back together, speaking of people who are recovering themselves.

Speaker 6 Support for the show comes from Crucible Moments, a podcast from Sequoia Capital.

Speaker 6 Sometimes the difference between success and failure comes down to one chance encounter or following a counterintuitive instinct or ignoring conventional wisdom to make a bold decision.

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Speaker 2 Everybody thought we were crazy. Nobody would use the cloud for cybersecurity.
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Speaker 2 You know, if everybody believes it shouldn't be done or it cannot be done, then, you know, it's a good reason to do it.

Speaker 6 Or when mobile gaming giant Supercell could only rewrite the rules of the industry after failure in the company's formative stages.

Speaker 2 Many of the best things we've learned have actually come through failures.

Speaker 6 These are Crucible Moments, turning points in a company's journey that made them what they are today.

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Speaker 4 Scott, we're back with more news. Elon Musk seems to be dipping his toe back into politics.

Speaker 4 Musk made an appearance at the White House dinner hosted by Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday.

Speaker 4 Aside from Charlie Kirk's memorial, this is the only time Musk and Trump have been seen together since their big feud. I'm not sure if the romance rekindled.

Speaker 4 And while we're on the topic of Saudi, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit, let's hear what Trump had to say when a journalist at the White House brought up the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Speaker 4 I'll remind people: our intelligence services have linked

Speaker 4 him into pieces.

Speaker 4 I call him Mohamed Bonesaw.

Speaker 4 And it was at his behest. So let's listen.

Speaker 8 As far as this gentleman is concerned, he's done a phenomenal job. You're mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial.
A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about.

Speaker 8 Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happened, but he knew nothing about it. And we can leave it at that.
You don't have to embarrass our guests by asking a question like that.

Speaker 4 It's ridiculous. What a ridiculous thing.
He did know. Our intelligence services, he ordered the murder.
And actually, oddly enough, MBS was more, I guess, like mistakes were made.

Speaker 4 And I think he was actually more truthful about what happened, which is he ordered this murder. This is a murder.
There's no other way to put it about Jamal Khashoggi.

Speaker 4 And what was really, it's just striking because, you know, he sort of slathered himself, which I don't think is going to help him with his MAGA friends.

Speaker 4 But I just think he slathered himself in this guy and was making all these claims out $1 trillion in investment, which the Saudi economy isn't that big, right it's kind of and they're of course are that that piff which they don't like pif is having problems because of of all kind i think it's noim or whatever they're building or all a lot of their investments are turning you know you know tits up as they say so you know don't embarrass guests about murders they've committed scott that's i guess that's what i would take away from this this was the strangest encounter lately and mostly trump looking kind of weirdly again corrupt once again It goes to what you said.

Speaker 2 It's incompetence. They should have been prepared for that question.
And I actually think that MBS, if he'd said, look,

Speaker 2 my government makes mistakes.

Speaker 4 And he did, actually.

Speaker 2 And without referencing, he actually said that.

Speaker 2 Also, quite frankly, he could have said, you know, a lot of people think that your country coming into my region and killing 400,000 people in Iraq was a mistake.

Speaker 2 I mean, they just should have been prepared for that question. And I think they could have answered it.

Speaker 2 You're not going to find moral clarity in geopolitics. And

Speaker 2 I want to be clear. I believe that MBS ordered the murder and hacking.

Speaker 4 So does our intelligence services.

Speaker 4 I don't think it's in question by anybody but Trump.

Speaker 2 But what I always put forward is, okay, now what?

Speaker 2 Now what do we,

Speaker 2 we went in and killed 400,000 people in Iraq. Does that mean no one in the region should ever deal with our economy? I mean, it's like, okay, now what, folks?

Speaker 2 And, but for the president to get defensive and weird about a question they knew was going to come, they should have been able to

Speaker 2 and MBS.

Speaker 2 I don't want to say I'm a fan of MBS. I'm a fan of U.S.-Saudi relations because I think it's ultimately the smartest thing for U.S.
defense and security. And also,

Speaker 2 I think any honest analysis would have to position MBS as an actual reformer.

Speaker 2 So I don't,

Speaker 2 but this is incompetence for the president not to know this question was coming.

Speaker 4 Be this defensive.

Speaker 4 Why this slathering, you know, the insulting of our allies that are more important than MBS, Europe, et cetera, and the sort of like, it was speaking of blowjobs. It was like a blowjob of a dinner.

Speaker 4 It was a blow. And pretending that these, I mean, and ridiculous repetition, he's going to invest a billion, a trillion dollars.
Their economy is not that big.

Speaker 4 It's just, it's, they're in minor they're they're having their own troubles with their investments by the way they've made all kinds of bad investments and um

Speaker 4 and and of course most people just went there to get money from them right they were sort of like the bank the the cash machine essentially the uh for people to go over there from silicon valley and elsewhere and a lot of it is just turned up shitty um so why are we giving this much attention to this group of people and handing over i think he did great he got the f-35s he got chips, I think.

Speaker 4 He got guarantees. I don't know what we got.
If you're going to be Rayel Politic, what the fuck did we got? Except our president

Speaker 4 decided that being bone-sawed is just, you know, things happen, my friend.

Speaker 2 Oh, look, we get a lot. We have military bases that are in the middle.

Speaker 4 We're in this deal right now. Well,

Speaker 2 we're getting a lot of money. We continue to get.
access to cheap capital to fund our companies.

Speaker 4 But they're not, actually, as I sent you that story, They're not. They're cutting back rather substantively on all their investments here.

Speaker 2 The pivot, if you will, or the changing complexion around investments coming out of the Gulf is the following. They used to send their capital overseas.

Speaker 2 And what they're saying now is, we'll invest in your company, but we want you to build factories. We want you to build an economy here.
Right.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 rather than giving you money to go build a ride-hailing service in Miami, we'll give you money, but we want you to build a ride-hailing service here, and we want you to have a regional headquarters here.

Speaker 2 We need to build build an internal consumption economy as opposed to just a giant headquarters. Yes,

Speaker 4 it makes sense.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 if we normalize relationships between the kingdom and Israel, I think it'll make the whole world.

Speaker 4 Which he didn't promise to sign on.

Speaker 4 They didn't get that out of him.

Speaker 2 Which will be more peaceful.

Speaker 2 Look, I think that they are now either the biggest or the second biggest economy in the region. We have huge strategic overlap.
I don't think he should have come.

Speaker 2 I think that they were, this is just, this demonstrates economist incompetence.

Speaker 2 This is an important strategic relationship that needs to be managed better than the president not prepared for an obvious question that is coming down the pike that makes MBS look bad, that makes the president look bad.

Speaker 2 This is just incompetent.

Speaker 4 And then he threatened ABC's license, right? And he just sucked up the entire thing. If I were Bob Iger right now, I'd be like,

Speaker 4 I would go on the offensive. Like, go ahead.
They kind of are.

Speaker 2 They have been very, I don't want to say bold, but they've been unafraid lately because I was at, I was at one of these Masters of the Universe dinners with eight or 10 people

Speaker 2 in LA.

Speaker 2 And I mean, some very powerful people in front of other people in front of a mixed company were like, Bob Iger is a fucking coward.

Speaker 2 I know. I mean, and these are people in the industry that are big.

Speaker 2 And I've heard that.

Speaker 2 So I think Bob has decided that is not how i want to go out that's right i think he's having i think he's recognized he up and i think i don't want to say they're over correcting but if you look at george stephanopoulos if you look at the this one they have basically said to the journalists at abc as far as i can tell

Speaker 4 go for him go

Speaker 2 go after him go you the don't you know we need we are hardcore journalists start acting like it uh anyways

Speaker 4 that's my sense i i i i know this i think he's i think i think the time time for, you know, the time for, what's that expression from my favorite movie, Gladiator?

Speaker 4 The time for celebrating yourself is over. I think that, I do think that.
I thought that question.

Speaker 4 I thought that reporter did a great job, was very respectful and asked exactly the question in a respectful but firm way. Same thing with George Stephanie.
I think they're like, bring it fucking on.

Speaker 4 You take a, go, come take our license. Please try.
Give it a try. Let's see how that works out for you.
I mean, that's the thing. And then, you know, his uncle's doty.

Speaker 2 I think this is Bob Iger trying to salvage his reputation. He should.

Speaker 4 And he should.

Speaker 2 Six months before he announces his succession plan.

Speaker 4 He should. He's got nothing.

Speaker 4 Good for him. Yeah, good for him.
Anyway, as we were speaking of deals in Hollywood, because he was the masters of the universe, I'd like to know what you think.

Speaker 4 The deadline has arrived for Warner Brothers' discovery bids. Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are expected to make offers for some or all the company.

Speaker 4 Paramount is widely considered the frontrunner, thanks to financial and political advantages, but we'll see.

Speaker 4 The company is denying a report that has partnered with sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi for a $71 billion offer that was reported.

Speaker 4 Warner Brothers Board is expected to review the offers before Thanksgiving and aim to have the process wrapped by the end of the year.

Speaker 4 They could also still just do the spin-out thing, but there's enough interest here at this, and this is real interest. And let me say, Comcast is definitely interested

Speaker 4 in this. I think they're perplexed about the non-economic bid by Paramount because Daddy Warbucks has the money to do so.
And they want to make an economic, and they mostly are interested in

Speaker 4 the studios and the streaming service. Netflix has promised things like putting movies into theaters.
They're trying to make themselves seem attractive.

Speaker 4 So any, I know you think this is a small thing, but it's a big deal for Hollywood, right?

Speaker 4 And it'll also make, it'll go, it'll make the number of studios smaller, which of course, now the writers and the directors, they're all sort of weighing in here.

Speaker 4 So I expect plenty of pushback from them, depending on what happens here. Most people, I think Zazlov is favoring Comcast.
That's my impression.

Speaker 4 He'll get a bigger role there. I don't think people much like, I think the worm has turned already on David Ellison a little bit.

Speaker 4 They're very, to me, they're very freely calling him Nepo Baby. And, you know, his UFC deal seems a little overpaid.
Seems like a...

Speaker 4 One of them said they just, these other billionaires just took advantage of the dumber billionaire, young billionaire, essentially.

Speaker 4 So I don't know, but they have money and they have, you know, non-economic power, I guess. They just want it.
I just, you know, daddy wants to buy his son the car, I guess. I don't know.

Speaker 4 What do you think? I feel like Comcast is the best owner here at Netflix, but

Speaker 4 in terms of quality and the ability to move forward, I think Paramount desperately needs this. Thoughts about what did you hear in LA?

Speaker 2 The fulcrum in this deal is simply put how wealthy Larry Ellison feels when he gets up in the morning, when he gets a call from his son and says, okay,

Speaker 2 what's our best and final? Because

Speaker 2 in Warner Brothers and their bankers have done the right thing. They've put a deadline on this thing to try and impose some discipline and say, okay, let's.

Speaker 4 Explain why they did that for people who don't know. Oh, you do.

Speaker 2 Whenever you're selling a company and you have multiple bidders, which it appears they do now, or at least multiple interested parties, you put a deadline on it and you force people to get serious and put their best foot forward.

Speaker 2 You try and create a sense of urgency.

Speaker 2 And so you impose some discipline and say, okay, all letters of intent need to be in by a certain date, and your best and final offers have to be in by this date.

Speaker 2 And then you go back and ask them for a little bit more to get the deal done. But just to give, it's a little bit confusing, so I just want to sort of break down the parties here.

Speaker 2 So Paramount, after having their

Speaker 2 $23.50

Speaker 2 a share bid rejected, they're reportedly preparing an offer alongside of sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. Which they've denied.

Speaker 2 Although they've denied this, although that felt like good reporting to me. I don't know if you saw it.
That doesn't feel like a rumor. It felt too obtuse to be just a rumor.

Speaker 2 Netflix execs have met with Warner Brothers and reportedly said that a potential bid would include continuing the release of Warner Brothers movies and theaters.

Speaker 2 They're trying to appeal to the creative community. Comcast, the company has retained bankers for an offer, and we now know that they are specifically interested in streaming and studios and networks.

Speaker 2 But here's the bottom line: because of what was called the Revlon Law, or whatever it was called,

Speaker 2 Warner Brothers has an obligation to just accept the highest bidder. All this other stuff is somewhat noise.
They will get shareholder lawsuits.

Speaker 2 At the end of the day, they can say to someone, we like you, and if you match this, we'll give it to you.

Speaker 2 But at the end of the day, if Ellison shows up with 10 cents more per share, they have a shareholder obligation.

Speaker 4 So will he do that? That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 4 The shares are down.

Speaker 4 They have that big run-up, and now they're running down.

Speaker 4 Correct question.

Speaker 2 This all comes down to, in my view,

Speaker 2 Larry Ellison wakes up in the morning and David, his son calls him and says, okay, it's going to cost us $24.75 to get this.

Speaker 2 This is the bankers will do their job. The bankers will get the highest number and then they'll go back to the Ellisons who have the deepest pocket and say, we have an offer at $24 a share.

Speaker 2 At the end, it makes sense to be fairly transparent. The truth has a nice ring to it.
Say they get 24 bucks a share from Comcast or Netflix or whatever.

Speaker 2 They basically, the smart thing to do would be to go back and say to the Ellisons, at $26 a share by 5 p.m. tomorrow, it's yours.
Right. You go back and say, this is your strike opportunity.

Speaker 4 And then you go back to Comcast and say, they do.

Speaker 2 I don't think when you get to this point, I think

Speaker 2 you pick the person with the deepest pockets and you go back to them and say, in my view, it's yours. I think going back and forth, at some point,

Speaker 2 at some point, people are going to to tire.

Speaker 2 I personally think you have a bidding process and then you go back to one and you ask for a bigger premium and say you can take it off the table at this price.

Speaker 4 So let me ask you,

Speaker 4 what is the best, what is the best for these companies and for Hollywood, what would be the best owner away from the price? And I understand price is all that matters in the end.

Speaker 4 But from your analysis, if all things being equal,

Speaker 4 which they aren't always, which owner is the best owner for these properties?

Speaker 2 So I'm not thinking about it in terms of who would do the best job with the assets. I think of it as who creates the most robust ecosystem because

Speaker 2 I wouldn't want, like, you know, I love Ted Serrandos. I think he's the brightest guy in media, quite frankly.
And also, I think the most, I don't know.

Speaker 4 Great team.

Speaker 2 Yeah, just

Speaker 2 they're just the management team that just consistently performs. And

Speaker 4 I would love to see this is in terms of not enough content.

Speaker 2 But I wouldn't want to see Netflix own this

Speaker 2 because the two biggest streamers right now are Netflix and Alphabet. And I would like to see a viable third competitor.

Speaker 2 YouTube has approximately 11.5% of the streaming market. Netflix has eight or nine.
I'd like to see another player at seven that could go toe-to-toe with the other market.

Speaker 4 Isn't it Disney?

Speaker 2 Well, I don't think Disney doesn't have the money to do this. Yeah.

Speaker 2 So I would argue that it's either a Comcast, and in a weird way, I think Paramount bulking up with Netflix money would be good for the ecosystem because when you have too much concentration of power Netflix money I'm sorry with with Ellison money Ellison money yeah Paramount right yeah yeah that gives them bulk they become a formidable competitor because when you have a lack of competitors what effectively happens is the trend and this is what's you could describe this happening in the U.S.

Speaker 2 economy there's a transfer of wealth from labor to capital and there's been too much transfer of wealth from labor to capital there's too many people there's there's too many people with not a lot of pricing power and

Speaker 2 earnings is a percentage of the economy. Corporate profits have never been higher.
Wages have been somewhat stagnant. That means there's too much concentration of power among the buyers of labor.

Speaker 2 So what do you want?

Speaker 2 You want a diverse ecosystem with a lot of competition, constantly trying to figure out a way to lower prices to consumers, constantly trying to figure out a way to spend more of their shareholder money on content, more jobs.

Speaker 2 I just don't want, I just want to see robust competition.

Speaker 4 Sure, but this is going to get a buzz sell from the right, everybody else, because it is going to limit the, I mean, I know they're promising to make as many movies. I don't believe them.

Speaker 4 And the second part is,

Speaker 4 to me, the best owner is Comcast here for this stuff. And then to spin off the news, like, let's stop playing fucking games with this.

Speaker 4 You know, they don't, they, first of all, the Elsins are not interested in news. I don't care what they say.

Speaker 4 Second thing is, as much as they go on and on about being the tech solution, I have not heard any specifics because I've tried to get specific.

Speaker 4 I'm like, they're like, we're going to do a tech, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, specifically what? And they're like, tech, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And I'm like, specifically what?

Speaker 4 Like, tell me, explain to me. And then they're just like, very allison, tech, tech, tech, tech, tech.
And I'm like, why don't you just make good stuff and like and sell tickets?

Speaker 4 Like do your business well, like whatever it happens to be. And I, I know there are all kinds of synergies with technology, backend, as I've talked about.

Speaker 4 I've interviewed lots of people, but to me, they're, they're kind of blowhards at this point.

Speaker 4 And they're blowhards. I don't know what else to say.
I like a lot of them. I think

Speaker 4 whatever you think of Jeff Shell, I think he's quite smart.

Speaker 4 But honestly, I'm like,

Speaker 4 I prefer the Comcast people. I find Brian Roberts to be an honorable person.
I think his team, like Donna Langley, exquisite taste.

Speaker 4 Mike Kavanaugh is, if you spend a minute with him, you realize what a smart guy is. I feel like they'd be the best, the smartest owners.

Speaker 4 I think they did a brilliant brilliant job on the Olympics, for example. Speaking of deploying technology, they're not blah, blah, blah people.
And so I prefer them.

Speaker 4 Like they, they can point to the Olympics and say, this is what we did. Oh, okay, I get it.
Okay, good job. Right.
And so they seem to, to me, to be the best owners.

Speaker 4 I, I think they have to get this too. I think they think this is existential for them.
So I wouldn't count them out in terms of

Speaker 4 like being slightly non-economic.

Speaker 4 I know they disdain like the non-economic part of it because they're kind of, they're kind of, they're not pencil pushers, but they're very, they're very disciplined financial people.

Speaker 4 They're not like,

Speaker 4 they don't just like, I want it, daddy. Like,

Speaker 4 I like David Ellison as a person, but he feels like Varuca saw, you know, what is it? What's the, remember in Willy Wonka?

Speaker 4 I want it now. Like, that's what I feel like.
I'm like, daddy, get me that squirrel. Like, like, that's what it feels like.

Speaker 4 And I, and I'm sort of like, I like your actual ideas versus your or the idea this is the last thing is i was thinking about like oh i'm friends you know the tom like tom cruise is it you know why tom cruise likes you because you have money like that's it that's maybe you're a little bit interesting for a rich person but to me i would like the disciplined quality creators of content here to get this right so that they have i don't know i guess paramount could do a good job with it too but they both need it that's to me that the most

Speaker 4 I would say Paramount needs it most of all and probably will overpay,

Speaker 4 which he has shown his, his proclivity to do. Comcast is the one I think would be the best owner.

Speaker 4 And I think Netflix should just go do their thing as much as they might need this content and just do what they're doing because it seems to be working of how they're doing it. Anyway, that's my note.

Speaker 2 So let's talk about what each could potentially get from it. Paramount wants the streaming and network business.

Speaker 2 Combined a Paramount, Warner Brothers Discovery streaming service would have about 200 million subscribers, making it giving a parody with Disney, but still behind Netflix at 300 million.

Speaker 2 Folding WBD's cable assets would present a lot of opportunities for cost cutting and savings, as Ellison is already doing with Paramount Properties.

Speaker 2 It gives them the scale they would need to punch against the big guys. Netflix, they want access to WBD's premium content, including live sports.

Speaker 4 Game of Thrones. Bye bye.

Speaker 2 If they absorb premium WB content, content, you know, Sopranos, Game of Thrones, The Wire, movie franchises, Harry Potter, DC Comics,

Speaker 2 Netflix could force some subscribers to switch over.

Speaker 2 WBD also holds rights in various markets for nearly every sports league, which would basically give Netflix the opportunity to plant a pretty big flag into live sports, which they don't have right now.

Speaker 2 Comcast wants to try and, quite frankly, this would be a defensive move for them. Their stock has been in decline for five years.
It's lost over half its value since its peak.

Speaker 2 And the company is seeing consistent cable losses and facing intense streaming competition. And

Speaker 2 right now, they're thinking we have to take a big swing because if our stock keeps going down, we're not going to have the bat to make a big swing pretty soon. So it's more of a defensive or a

Speaker 2 what I just want to point out is that we can talk till the cows come home about who would be the best owner.

Speaker 2 At the end of the day, the owner is going to be who comes up with one penny more than the rest of them.

Speaker 2 So it's fun to talk about who needs it, unless, quote unquote, the best owner sees that opportunity and it justifies the highest bid, it doesn't matter who, quote unquote, the best owner is.

Speaker 4 But that's what I was making the argument: I think for Comcast, this is existential. They have to grab it, they have to have it.
If they can afford it, because they can afford it.

Speaker 2 It's going to be given that. See, they're shopping.
It's the opposite for them. Warner Brothers Discovery versus five years ago is twice as expensive as it was because their stock's been cut in half.

Speaker 2 So they're shopping with a credit card. You know, the analogy I

Speaker 2 use is we have one of these green light credit cards for our kids and we fill it up based on their allowance or chores they've done or whatever. The last part is a lie.

Speaker 2 My kids don't do a fucking thing around the house. Anyways, but I like to pretend I'm imposing some reasonable parenting on them.
I'm not.

Speaker 4 I'm not. Anyways,

Speaker 2 but

Speaker 4 I'll do it for you.

Speaker 2 Like I've said, Palantir, everything in the world right now is 90% off for Palantir because their stock's up to unfold.

Speaker 4 Although it's down recently this week, but go ahead.

Speaker 2 Well, okay, but it's all relative. Okay,

Speaker 2 everything's 80% off. For Comcast, everything's twice as expensive as it was five years ago.
But quite frankly, Comcast, the Roberts family, they're very smart and they're disciplined.

Speaker 2 They're looking at the world and going, Are we about to become the smallest player and just oversee a declining ship and this becomes a distressed asset with a bunch of assets that are kind of melting.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 they're probably going to have to stretch, but they're probably saying, okay,

Speaker 2 they probably, at the end of the day, need it more than anyone else.

Speaker 4 Right. That's what I was thinking.

Speaker 2 The Ellisons need bulk and they have the deepest pockets. Netflix would use this offensively.

Speaker 2 I think, I don't want to say it'd be game over, but if Netflix got these assets, Jesus Christ, try and stop Netflix.

Speaker 4 Yeah, that's true. So which one do you think is going to get it? I agree with you.
I mean, I think one of the things with the Comcast, people are like,

Speaker 4 how can they do this? I'm like, they're rich.

Speaker 4 That's all I said. How do you explain it? I go,

Speaker 4 they're rich. And they're like,

Speaker 4 they go, yeah, but I go,

Speaker 4 they want it.

Speaker 4 They want it now. They want the special squirrel.

Speaker 2 If I had to bet,

Speaker 2 it's even with Ellison's wealth down from where it was,

Speaker 2 he's still, I think, now, what is he, the second or third wealthiest person in the man.

Speaker 4 He's going to get it. Yeah.

Speaker 2 I think his attitude is, why the fuck not? All in.

Speaker 2 But here's the thing. It all, this entire deal all comes down to one thing.
How rich does Larry Ellison feel when David calls at the last and says, okay, it's go time. We got to put in our best foot.

Speaker 2 And this is what I think it takes to get this thing done. And

Speaker 2 he very may well go, you know, the reason I'm the wealthiest man in the world is I have some discipline and some business acumen and this is just too expensive.

Speaker 2 David, go, you know, go find other, just have fun at Paramount and go to the premiere of, you know, landman and enjoy yourself. Or he says, you know what? What the fuck? What's another 10 billion?

Speaker 4 He's a what the fuck kind of guy. On my 300.
Remember when he made the Twitter thing? 1 billion? Whatever. Whatever.

Speaker 4 I think that's what he's like.

Speaker 2 And these guys typically, when they get towards the end of their life, and quite frankly, I get it. You don't own money.
You rent it.

Speaker 2 And when you're that old and you're like, okay, why the fuck not?

Speaker 4 Why the fuck not?

Speaker 2 If I had to bet on anyone, it would be Larry going, the bankers call him and say at the end, all right, you're 24.50.

Speaker 2 At 27, it's a done deal.

Speaker 2 I think, I don't know. I think Larry goes, David, all right, fine, go it.
Yes, green light.

Speaker 4 Green light. Do it.

Speaker 4 And we'll be able to get it through faster through the Trump process. Comcast, even though it gave money to that stupid ballroom, he's disliked by Trump.
I mean, of course, there's the autocratic.

Speaker 2 That's a really interesting point because Zaslov, Zaslov could say to his shareholders, but wait, Comcast was offering 50 cents more.

Speaker 2 He might be able to say, we were not as confident or Netflix, they would be able to close.

Speaker 4 Close, yeah. Yeah.
But although I think Trump is quite distracted, I think if I were Comcast, I'd go for it. Just go for it.
But they aren't like that. They aren't like that.
And

Speaker 4 Larry Ellison is. That's the issue.
By the way, last thing I'd say, nobody cares about the news part. None of them.
None of them. I don't care what they think.
It's a problem. Yeah.
Problem.

Speaker 4 They don't care. Just everyone like it at CNN and all the other places, like, what do they think about us? I know, not at all.

Speaker 2 Not at all. But the problem around Comcast, their market cap right now is $98 billion.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Too small.
This is like a bet the ranch. Yeah.
Freaking,

Speaker 2 if they go for this, this is, unless they do a club deal and immediately sell shit off or partner with someone. Yeah, they got to do that.
And keep in mind, right now,

Speaker 2 Warner Brothers is at a $57 billion market cap with a $30 billion debt load. That's an enterprise of 87.
It's not even really, if Comcast does this, it's more of a merger than an acquisition.

Speaker 4 Yeah, it is. It is.
And I got to say, they all do like to, I have such regard for Brian Roberts.

Speaker 4 I know he, you know, it's interesting because he's, in a weird way, you know, his dad gave him his company, right?

Speaker 4 Two people I really, I think he did a lot with the assets his parents gave him.

Speaker 4 And I think Rupert Murdoch did. Those are the ones.
And

Speaker 4 time will tell if David Ellison is as smart of his father.

Speaker 2 Just going back to MBS, I personally believe,

Speaker 4 like,

Speaker 2 at some point, I just want to know, I mean, at some point, is it 20 years? Is it 50 years? When reporters stop asking questions about the murder of Khashoggi, it'll be interesting to see.

Speaker 2 I think a more interesting question would have been, rumors are that David Ellison has approached Saudi sovereign and wealth funds about helping fund the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

Speaker 2 How do you feel about the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Speaker 2 having direct influence over the largest news network in the world?

Speaker 4 Yeah, they can't.

Speaker 4 They can't. That to me, when I'm saying that.

Speaker 2 But that's what they're talking about. Supposedly, Ellison's over there looking for fans.

Speaker 4 I know, but he can't do it.

Speaker 4 That'll be a problem.

Speaker 4 I think that'll be a problem. They're going to have to just use their own fucking money and they've got plenty of it if they want to do it.

Speaker 4 But selling off, all I can tell you, all the people calling me from the news, they don't care.

Speaker 2 I wonder what Calci or Polymarket are saying.

Speaker 2 If I had to handicap it right now, I'd put the Ellisons at like 60%.

Speaker 2 Yeah, 60%.

Speaker 4 Unless Comcast is selling it. Cash Paramount.

Speaker 4 We're going for it. Anyway, interesting thing.
Interesting. You know, these industries are.
Fun,

Speaker 4 yes, fun speculation.

Speaker 4 All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

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Speaker 4 Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. Just for people to note,

Speaker 4 I'm going to make a very brief one. New York City mayor-elect Zoran Mumdani is meeting with Trump at the White House when this airs on Friday.

Speaker 4 I think they're going to get along like peas and carrots. I don't know why I think that.
I think

Speaker 4 Trump has often, even though he insults Mumdani, seems to think he did a good job at the campaign. I just think it might go better than we think, but we'll see.

Speaker 2 I think your instincts are absolutely right. I think it's in both of their interests.
First off, Trump is very Luxist, and Momdani is a young, handsome man.

Speaker 2 He's very drawn to these young, handsome men. And Momdani,

Speaker 2 Momdani will come out looking very, Momdani can come out and say, Oh, I gave it to him and he said, I think they're going to come out and said, Well, we had our differences.

Speaker 2 We're committed to getting along, and this is his native city. I think they both have mutually vested interests in coming across as statesmanlike.

Speaker 2 So I agree with you. I don't think, why would they invite him down only to then have more antagonism and bullshit?

Speaker 4 Zelensky, they could do it. It could happen.
Like if he, if here's, let me tell you, Mamdani, don't get caught on a couch with J.D. Vance.
That's all. Just don't, he's too savvy.

Speaker 2 Are they planning to do a joint press review?

Speaker 4 I don't know, but you never know. Look, Gretchen Whitmer got sucked up into that.
Like, he's got to be very careful about where they sit him.

Speaker 4 That's, you know, they could be trying to like, it's a trap, like from Starbucks. That's all I'm saying.
Be very careful about how they present you and what they, because they could pick a fight.

Speaker 4 That's the other opposite thing. They could pick a fight, a public fight.

Speaker 2 I got to think someone in Trump's orbit smart enough to go, you know what? We're fighting a battle on a lot of fronts right now.

Speaker 4 This one's not a good one, and people like this fella.

Speaker 4 Every time Trump insults him, he compliments him. It's really interesting because he's like,

Speaker 4 I kind of like the cut of your jib, even though you're a communist kind of thing. Anyway, your prediction.

Speaker 2 I really do think we're on the precipice of a pretty significant shift in what I'll call the societal structure, control structure,

Speaker 2 the societal order. I think the vibe and the tone that will become increasingly apparent amongst these billionaire, the quote-unquote, these billionaires across leaders, business leaders,

Speaker 2 I actually think the tone and the vibe is going to have more impact than the crimes themselves. And I think we're going to see a dramatic

Speaker 2 reconfiguration of

Speaker 2 Congress's approach to tax policy

Speaker 2 and how

Speaker 2 I think this is a big moment. And I think I'm now increasingly believing that the Democrats are supposed to take back the House.
I think they're going to take it back viciously.

Speaker 2 I think this is going to feel like the Republican wave under Gingrich.

Speaker 2 I think this is going to be pretty severe. And I think we're going to see, and unfortunately,

Speaker 2 whatever is the chime or the pendulum on the clock, you can never visually see it at exactly the median. I think we're going to see,

Speaker 2 I don't think they'll go through, but I think you'll see proposals for wealth taxes similar to the ones that's been proposed in California. I think you're going to see a dramatic shift back.

Speaker 2 to progressives because when you read these emails, you're like, wow, these guys,

Speaker 2 they really have become Marie Antoinette with

Speaker 2 with blazers.

Speaker 4 They

Speaker 4 wear cashmere hoodies.

Speaker 2 Whatever it is, khakis.

Speaker 2 But I think the vibe of these emails is really unsettling. And I think

Speaker 2 it's going to accelerate a decline or accelerate a pretty serious move to, I don't, you know, call them progressive policies, call them what you want.

Speaker 2 This is going to, this is, I think we're at a pretty pivotal moment, and it's more about the culture and the vibe than the specific crimes.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I think what I think you're talking about, I don't, I think if Democrats were smart, they'd call it common sense and decency, right?

Speaker 2 Common sense and decency.

Speaker 4 Like if they just kind of do that, it's such a, because Trump seems not common sense and not indecent. It just is a, anyway, that's my feeling.

Speaker 2 Common sense and decency.

Speaker 4 Common sense and decency. I like that.
I agree with you. It's a Marie.
You must have had some interesting dinners in Los Angeles. That's what it sounds like.

Speaker 2 You'd be so proud of me.

Speaker 2 What did you do? We had this dinner

Speaker 2 and they invited,

Speaker 2 met one of these people we talk about all the time on the show. And they said, it would be okay if we invited so-and-so

Speaker 2 and his girlfriend. I'm like, no, I don't want to meet them.

Speaker 2 I talk about them all the time and I don't want to meet them because this is what happens. I meet them and I like them and I stop speaking in an unfiltered way.

Speaker 4 Yeah. Good.
Can you tell me who that was? Nope. All right.
You'll tell me later. Okay.
I'll tell you. Anyway, we want to hear from you.

Speaker 4 Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to send a question for the show.
Call 85551-Pivot. Okay, that's the show.

Speaker 4 Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week.
Scott, read us out.

Speaker 2 Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Toy Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Nurtod engineered this episode.
Manola Moreno edited this video.

Speaker 2 Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Miles Saberio, and Dan Shallan. Nishad Kura is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.
Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

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