A Guide to the 2024 Battleground States

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Restrictions apply. USAA! Welcome to Pot Save America.
I'm Tommy Vitor. I am Adisa i am adisi demissi you guys you all know adisi by now you've been on co-hosts before you've done live shows yeah the whole deal in case you missed those uh he has worked for every top democrat in the party at least the ones you guys like uh obama biden clinton gavin newsom cory booker katie porter sure i left some out but you did but that's cool as experienced uh a campaign staffer as i know and a great guy so thank you for being here yeah good to be here again in person too in person i love it in la uh of course rocking the yeah i gotta represent the bay i'm rocking my uh warrior's gear as ever stuff is still good uh we got a great show today uh sherry brown's going to officially face off against Bernie Moreno in Ohio's Senate race.
Biden travels to Nevada and Arizona to make his pitch to Latino voters and promote his plan to lower housing costs and create jobs. And Team Trump is getting the old criminal band back together for 2024 as Paul Manafort and Corey Lewandowski, they're making a return to the team.
God help us all. God help us all.
Why do that? We'll get to that in a bit. But first, Adisu, the presidential primary might be over, but there's lots of action happening in these down ballot races that could determine who controls Congress next year, will determine who controls Congress next year.
Last night, we had primaries in five states. We had Ohio, Arizona, Kansas, Florida, Illinois.
In Ohio, the Trump-backed MAGA candidate, Bernie Morenono managed to fend off challenges from Secretary of State Frank LaRose and a state senator named Matt Dolan. Moreno is now going to go up against Sherrod Brown in the general election.
Moreno is a former car dealer from Cincinnati. He's the MAGA guy.
He had backing from Trump and J.D. Vance and all the goobers.
The tally with about 95% of the vote in this morning was Bernie Moreno, 50%, over 50%. Dolan at 32.9%, LaRose 16.6.
So they certainly split the vote there. So Adesu, this is one of those races where Trump's guy won and our guy won.
The Democrats guy won. Can you talk a bit about Bernie Moreno and what you think his winning means for our chances of keeping this seat? Yeah.
I mean, I don't know if he's our guy, but I think he's the best candidate that- Well, the DSCC spent $3 million. Yeah, fair.
He is the candidate that is most likely to lose and thus to have Sherrod Brown go back- The Senate majority pacted, rather. Sorry, sorry, DSCC.
Shout out to SMP. But yeah, I think it increases our odds.
I think the SMP knows something. I think the DS knows things, and that is that Reino's weak.
And we saw this in 2022 that while Trump is his own political phenomenon, you have to credit that with the performance both in 16 and in 2020, he has whatever the opposite of the Midas touch is when it comes to endorsing down ballot. you got I'm thinking back to 22 Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania

Carrie touches when it comes to endorsing down ballot you got i'm thinking back to 22 um doug mastriano and uh memet oz in pennsylvania carrie lake and blake masters in uh in arizona um got it the list goes on hershel walker i'd look i'd thankfully forgotten about him uh hershel walker in george etc they all lost and i think you know the mega thing is um it Trump, but it hurts everybody else, I think. And it helps Trump only to a degree.
And so ultimately, I think, I think Moreno is the weakest candidate that we could have drawn. That said, in 2022, one of the candidates that Trump endorsed that actually did win was J.D.
Vance, right? So in Ohio right there. And so Ohio is a tougher state for us, but we've got Sherrod Brown.
And I think, you know, with no offense to Tim Ryan, who ran, I think, pretty much a flawless campaign. He was not an incumbent.
He did not have decades of statewide name recognition and brand building and all the things that Sherrod Brown has. So bottom line, Bernie Moreno is for a national abortion ban.
He's for repealing the ACA. He is everything that we hate in many of the other senators that are there in the Republican caucus.
And he has the MAGA stain on him and a tough primary. He just went through with a lot of negative ads dumped on his head.
So is it going to be easy? No, but did we draw the best candidate that we possibly could? Yes. And I'm sure it has a real chance.
Ohio is a tough, tough state, tough, tough state, but the DSCC put out some attacks early on Moreno. He also opposed the existence of the minimum wage, apparently.
He refused to pay employees overtime and shredded documentation about it when challenged. He's an election denier.
He called the J6 defendants political prisoners. And there was this late breaking AP report scandal about Moreno.
So the AP reported that in 2008, someone using Bernie Moreno's work email created and authenticated an account on a website called adult friend finders, uh, who was seeking men for one-on-one sex while traveling. Geolocation data says this account was set up in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where Moreno's parents owned a home at the time.
The account name was like his first name and his birthday. Um does it matter? It shouldn't.
It shouldn't matter. It used to be an enthusiastic supporter of LGBT rights, but he changed everything about his views in 2021.
And now he's seeking votes from bigoted people that he spoke to, you know, with these bigoted views. So, you know, the Moreno campaign says a former intern created this account as a prank.
That intern is also a donor. Ah, the old intern defense.
Yeah, the old let's sign my boss up for adult friend finder prank. Who hasn't done that one? Anyway, weird thing that just happened at the end.
I, again, I don't give a shit, but Republicans might. But we should say, so the establishment rode for Dolan, the Republican governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine endorsed him.
Rob Portman, the former senator,

endorsed him too. But Dolan and LaRose split the establishment votes.
But let's just play a quick clip of Donald Trump out on the campaign trail, stumping for Moreno from, I think, last weekend. I like sports and I like tradition.
So you have a team called the Cleveland Indians. Indians, They're Indians.

Indians.

And they took the name Cleveland Indians and made it the Cleveland Guardians. It's almost like they're in charge of a trust fund.
They're in charge of a trust fund. The Cleveland Guardians.
And my attitude is anybody that changes the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians should not be a senator, should not be a governor. So I just thought that clip was like a perfect encapsulation of Trump because it's clearly racist because Mr.
Populous there is dropping a reference to trust fund stewardship. I don't even know what he's talking about.
Me either. But also at the end, he seems to maybe forget what Moreno is campaigning for.
So just vintage Trump. Vintage.
Yeah. I mean, look, yeah, he's a, it is part of the appeal of Trump to the Republican base that he just sort of says whatever the heck comes to mind.
It is not convincing to swing voters. And obviously, you know, left-leaning voters as well.
So, but that's the thing that sells. And look, the Republican Party is Trump's party.
I said it last time I was on this show. I said it in the live show we did back up in San Jose.
And last night's results just make it clear, not just in Ohio, but elsewhere, that he has taken over the party and this brand of politics is going to win over a majority of Republican voters, but not a majority of American voters. And our challenge is to make sure they vote for our guys when time comes in November.
And we should just note that in this case, Sherry Brown is like one of the best senators we have. He is extremely progressive in a very red state.
He is more comfortable in factories and union halls than he is at fundraisers. And trust me, I've seen him at both.
A lot less good at the fundraisers, right? And that's why we like the guy. So we really need him to win.
Yeah. And can I just say, I think the Sherrod Brown model of the Democratic Party is actually, I think, the future of the Democratic Party.
Weird maybe to say about a relatively older white guy from the Midwest. But the combination of populism and social liberalism that he really embodies maybe better than anybody, it's kind of similar to what President Biden, sort of how he came up in politics, is I think the coalition that we both have to assemble this year and going forward.
And we will see, I think in November, that it can win in a place like Ohio, let alone Pennsylvania, Arizona states that are a little more purple than Ohio is. So he's a great, great senator, a great guy.
And in many ways, I think going to be a model for us going forward into 26, 28 and beyond, hopefully with Trump in the rearview mirror. Totally agree.
And critical to holding the Senate. Also, add Maryland, by the way, to your states to be anxious about.
Larry Hogan is near 50% in some polls out today in that Senate race. So don't like that, Adi.
Don't like that at all. So a couple other races we should mention.
So there were special elections in Ohio's sixth district and California's 20th congressional district to replace retiring Republicans, including Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Hilariously, Vince Fong.
Falling on his face here in California. So the Trump McCarthy backed candidate for McCarthy's seat didn't get to 50%, which means he will now face a runoff, which means Speaker Johnson can't count on that seat, which is just delicious.
So again, the Republican presidential primary is over, but we still have people voting in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. There were some exit polls we can dig into, but did you do any like big takeaways from these other states and races? Yeah.
I mean, I think the first one is the Trump,

you know, hold on the party continues. And we saw obviously leading into Ohio in particular,

that that was the narrative that was out there, but 50 to 33 or whatever you said is a pretty

big win. And elsewhere we saw Trump's endorsed candidates win.
So again, I think that's mostly

a good thing for Democrats in November. It also is high risk, high reward, right? If some of these folks, you know, if Bernie Moreno becomes a senator, that's very, very bad.
Honestly, the other thing I saw from yesterday is Nikki Haley still getting in the teens. Everywhere, everywhere, including Kansas, including Florida.
She dropped out before voting even started. Yeah.
And it's not, you know, DeSantis only dropped out, whatever, a month before her and is not getting nearly as much vote in his home state, let alone in these other states.

And, you know, everyone is talking about how, and rightly so, how President Biden needs to consolidate the Democratic Party. But we consistently have now seen over the last month that Republicans, a good 10, 20% of Republicans are coming out to vote in a primary that is over.

Yeah. a good 10, 20% of Republicans are coming out to vote in a primary that is over to express their displeasure with their candidate more than what is happening with President Biden.
And so it's an undercover story. I think it's interesting to see if that continues as the Haley dropout becomes further in the rear view.
But I even saw exit polls yesterday from Ohio that showed that 10 to 15% of Republican primary voters might not vote for Trump in the general or might vote for Biden. And so Ohio is one thing, right? Is it going to be on the map in the fall? Maybe, maybe not, probably not.
But if you extrapolate that to the Arizonas and Georges and North Carolinas and Pennsylvanias of the world, that's a not not insignificant number of people that could swing back to Democrats and are expressing their displeasure despite voting in a Republican primary. Yeah.
I mean, just to give the exact number. So in the Ohio exit, seven in 10 GOP primary voters will definitely back Trump.
One in 10 will probably back Trump. Two in 10 are leaning Biden or third parties.
So yeah, that definitely shows some real weakness. That's a lot.
That's a lot of people. Again These are people who are the base, in theory, of the Republican Party.
The Republican Party. You mentioned Nevada and Arizona.
So since the State of the Union, President Biden's been on the road. He's been going to swing states.
This week, he's stopping in Nevada and Arizona. During the trip, his campaign launched a national program to mobilize Latino voters.
They also released a new TV ad targeting Latino voters, though the issues they highlighted were very familiar. It was, you know, the cost of insulin and abortion access.
Biden also did some Spanish language interviews where he said Trump despises Latinos. That was an exact quote.
So strong words there. Adisu, there's been a lot of polling showing President Biden slipping with Latino voters.
Why do you think that's happening? And what do you think the Biden campaign needs to do to fix the problem? So a couple of things. First, I don't think that's actually much different from what's happening sort of across the board.
I think we're seeing a lot of people who are coming to grips with the fact that we have a rematch of 2024 in every demographic group. They may be, you know, costs are higher, things are difficult in the world, et cetera.
They're generally upset with the way the country is going. We know the right track, wrong track numbers aren't great across the board.
And so the president bears the bread of that, regardless of who he, hopefully someday she is. So I think we're seeing a lot of that.
Other thing I would say is Latino vote, I think about this a lot, not just with the Latino community, but particularly with that community, is almost like a phrase that doesn't mean anything because a first generation Cuban American in Florida and a third generation Mexican American in Nevada, they're Americans and I'm sure they have other cultural similarities, but they're so different. And so I think the better way to think of it is the way that the Biden campaign thought of it this week I've seen, which is there are states where the Latino vote is going to be particularly critical swing states to the path to 270.
And those are in particular Nevada and Arizona, but there are pockets in other places as well. How do they get there? I mean, I think the first thing is show up, which I know is a trite thing to say, but I think it's true in that community.
It matters a lot. Physically show up and do it early.
And it is still March. And the president is already out there doing this in a trip to Nevada yesterday, I think Arizona today.
But I think, and you mentioned this in the ad, fighting Trump on the character and culture issues, I think in the Latino community in particular particular is probably not where we should be fighting our message war it's on the issues you know when you talk to latino voters and focus groups and polling and you ask what issues do you care about it's it's certainly the economy and jobs but increasingly it's abortion access it's gun violence which i've seen pop a lot um not just since Uvalde, but we've seen it. Crime.

Yeah, yeah, et cetera. And so- Associated gun violence.
And they trust Democrats on those issues, two to one, three to one, four to one. And so show up and talk about issues and don't get sucked into the back and forth about Trump and the circus around him, which for us drives liberals and people like me crazy, but I don't think is what a swing Latino voter in Arizona or Nevada is, is not what's going to drive their vote decision come November.
Yeah. I mean, to your point, Axios did a survey in June of 2023, where they found that a plurality of Latino voters now say that neither party cares about them.
Democrats still have a basically three to one advantage because 30% of Latino voters think Democrats they care more about them. 11% think Republicans.
But to your point, I mean, I think people don't feel like they're being spoken to about the issues. They actually matter to them.
And in 2020, President Biden, I mean, I think I ran a campaign against him in the primary and Bernie Sanders and others really focused on this. I think Sanders and Biden did a better job than any of the rest of us in talking to Latino voters early.
And once we got into the general, even though it was early and mid pandemic days, they were up early on TV. They were talking about these issues quickly.
And I anticipate the same happening this time. And so eight months is a long time in politics.
And that I hope and I believe will sort of move things in into into the president's direction reality is in an election where this the margins are going to be so close and they are everything matters we have to do it we have to we have to run every play and run every play well yeah one thing I just wanted to flag uh just because I know you're a geek about polling like I am so the folks at Pew released this interesting report about bad data that's coming out of a type of polling called online opt-in polling. That is an online survey that's not a random sampling of Americans.
They're not dialing through the phone book. It's people who choose to take a poll because usually they get compensated in some way.
Yeah. So the folks at Pew noticed several recent studies that found large errors in these kinds of online opt-in polls because a bunch of people were just, I guess, ripping through the questions as fast as they could to get paid.
To get their $25 check. Yeah, to get $25.
So in particular, these types of polls tend to overestimate what would normally be a rare belief. For example, there was a recent opt-in online poll that made big headlines when it found that 20% of US adults under 30 think the Holocaust is a myth.
Pew tried to replicate that survey with different methodology. They found 3% of adults under 30 think the Holocaust is a myth.
So it was a totally wrong poll. And to test it further, in February of 2022, Pew did a survey asking respondents if they were licensed to operate a nuclear submarine in the opt-in survey.
12% of adults under 30 said yes. 24% of Latino respondents said yes.
In reality, statistically, 0% is the answer. So what does this mean? We don't know.
It doesn't necessarily mean that young people are the ones skewing these polls or that Latinos are. It could just be like everyone taking them as lying.
Yeah, it's true. I mean, if you offer an incentive, I mean, it's the downside of offering

an incentive to people. It doesn't really matter.
You're not offering them an incentive for the

result. You're offering them an incentive for participating.
And if all you have to do is click,

click, click, click, click, that's probably what's happening is click, click, click, click, click.

But it's part and parcel of the broader issue, which we've been talking about since 2016 about

polling. It is becoming more difficult.
It is becoming more expensive. And to do it well, you have to have a good sample.
And to get a good sample, you have to spend money to go find people to be representative of the electorate at large and make some assumptions about it. And everybody who is listening to this, who's reading polls for the next eight months, you should pay attention.
Sure, look at the number on the top line first. But the second thing you should do is go look at the methodology.
Or the average. And look at the averages and all those things because the methodology can really make a difference in serious ways when we're talking about nuclear submarine operation.
A lot of nuclear subcaptains out there in America. But yeah, the moral of the story is, right, don't freak out about anyone, or especially some like outlier subsample of all young people now oppose abortion rights.
Like that's probably not true. Two quick things we're going to break, Dsu.
First of all, do you like soccer? I love soccer. Okay, I got a new podcast out.
You'll never walk alone. Thank you.
I'm a big Liverpool fan. I sure am.
Okay, someone made me, Roger Bennett from Men in Blazers, my co-host in the series, made me like Everton, and that has not gone well. I got a series out.
It's called World Corrupt. It's our second season.
We are focusing on how Saudi Arabia got the 2034 World Cup, how they are pouring money into the Premier League, into the Saudi League, and just like fundamentally changing the entire sport of soccer. It is a lot of fun.
We're doing four special episodes. It's on the Pod Save the World feed.
You can get it now. Check it out.
I will listen. There's lots of fun jokes and banter and, you know, soccer content.
British accents. Yeah, British accents.
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The other big push during Biden's trip and since the State of the Union has been to highlight his housing agenda. That includes urging Congress to pass legislation aimed at opening up the housing market for first-time homebuyers and making renting more affordable.
We both live in California. Housing prices are and have been a huge issue politically and personally for people for a very long time, especially with young voters.
So this is no surprise and it's good that Biden's focusing on this, but there is basically zero chance, I think, that Congress is going to do something. So what do you make of the strategy of highlighting housing and what can we actually do here? I think it's brilliant.
I think, look, every piece of research I have seen for the last two years, cost of living is the number one issue. It does not matter the demographic.
It does not matter the geographic. It is the number one issue for everybody in the sort of post-pandemic era.
And what is the line item on everyone's budget, pretty much everyone's budget, that is taking up the biggest chunk of their money? It is their rent or their mortgage or their housing costs. And so while the cost of get...
We talk a lot about the cost of gas and the cost of groceries, because you see it every week when you go to the store. It's dynamic, exactly.
It actually is, at the bottom line, it's the thing that's driving a lot of costs. And we were on the vanguard of that here in California, because we've been seeing that for longer, I think, than the rest of the country, certainly pre-pandemic because of our housing shortage.
So I think the president is doing a really smart thing that may not, particularly here in the West, I think, where we've had these problems for longer, but even in most urban areas where we've seen rents and housing costs go up, to talk about an issue that is hitting people in their pocketbooks and trying to do something about it. And I think I said this last time I was on the show, we're not going to be able to convince people that, you know, the sky is green when the sky is blue, if they're not, you know, if costs are high and if the economy isn't in a different place come November.
But we certainly can, and I think people are willing to believe that the president is trying to do something. Yeah, fighting for you.
He's fighting for you, and Donald Trump is not. Yeah, understands and cares.
So that's what this is about. That's exactly right.
Just so folks know, Biden's also in Arizona to cut a big check to Intel from the CHIPS Act for a new manufacturing plan to create a bunch of jobs. So they're still sort of working to get him credit for things he has done play as well.
In terms of the polling, look, I mean, Arizona, some recent surveys, recent Emerson poll has Trump up four. He's up more if you include RFK Jr.
in that and some of the other candidates. There's a big Arizona Senate race.
Ruben Gallego is beating Carrie Lake by four at the moment in the most recent poll. And then again- I really want to meet these Trump Gallego voters.
I would love to meet them too. They're out there.
They're out there. There are a lot of Trump, you know, Trump Kelly voters.
Yeah, you gotta find them. And then in Nevada, you know, Trump is up between three to five points.
So, you know, tough, tough states right now. Yeah.
I think the map is, look, there's no sugarcoating it. It is a tough environment out there right now, but we're also in a pre-campaign period.
We're really at the starting gun, right? I don't know what, use whatever analogy you want. Spring training.
It's spring training. Maybe it's the first inning.
Maybe you can call the first inning. Certainly the first quarter.
There you go. Yeah.
Let's go March Madness. It is the first quarter of the play the play and what are they what were the the playing games the the yeah the games that happened before the first four the games to get into the tournament yeah those ones right so we're at the beginning and um the president like i said earlier is the incumbent and takes all the slings and arrows that come along with it we have to change this election from a referendum on the president to a choice between donald trump and and.
And that is what the campaign is all about. That's what the next eight months are all about.
And so polling is polling. It's a snapshot in time.
It means something, but it means nothing. It is not predictive of the outcome.
The outcome, there's a lot of twists and turns. And we cannot predict, honestly, what's going to happen between now and November that is out of our control, and we can only do the things that are in our control.
So I'm not worried about the polling, honestly. But do I think this is going to be an election decided by a couple thousand votes in a couple states? The answer is yes.
Me too. Yeah.
After Labor Day, we all get to freak out. Yeah, exactly.
You can freak out about the polling. Have me back in October.
Then we can freak out. Promise.
We will. So the key states this time around will sound very familiar to anyone who lived through 2020.
Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, maybe North Carolina, hopefully North Carolina. I think North Carolina.
North Carolina has got a big governor's race. The Attorney General, Josh Stein, is running against a genuinely frightening extremist Republican Lieutenant Governor Nate Mark Robinson.
We've talked about him a bit before on previous episodes, but here's a quick sampling of this guy just to prepare us for this segment emotionally. America is still the greatest nation on earth.
And I don't care what these communists say. I don't care what these socialists say.
I don't care what these blue haired freaks say with a tackle box in their face at the college campus. This is the greatest nation on earth, and it's all because of God.
He's the one that made it possible. So we give him thanks first and foremost.
How about that shit? So, Adisu, okay, let's be hopeful. Let's start with North Carolina.
Let's go on offense here. So, Obama won the state in.
We haven't won again since. There's a Marist poll out this morning.
That's not great. Again, Trump at 51, Biden at 48, snapshot in time.
We'll set it aside. But as compared to the 2020 exit, it seems like Biden is gaining support among white voters, but losing ground with black voters.
What do you think of our prospects in North Carolina generally and whether it's worth, I think it's a pretty expensive state, right? Yeah, it is. It's a much bigger state than I think, even as I was thinking about this cycle, I forgot, I think 16 electoral votes.
I mean, that's big. Not quite Pennsylvania, but bigger by 50% than Michigan and Wisconsin, for example.
So a lot of money has to go into it and you have to feel

confident that you can win it. I definitely think it's on the map.
100% think it's on the map. I

think whether Robinson's lunacy helps drive people into the democratic camp, I think is an open

question. I don't think it's a certain thing, but the map is wide right now, I think, because 51,

47, right? Again, snapshot in time, whatever it might be, that's in play, right? It's not out of

Thank you. The map is wide right now, I think, because 51, 47, right? Again, snapshot in time, whatever it might be.
That's in play, right? That's not, it's not out of, it's not out of touch or out of reach, I should say. And whether it be North Carolina, Georgia, I also think it's true on the other side, right? We have to make sure we keep an eye on the Minnesotas and Colorados of the world that could fall the other way.
But I think North Carolina is squarely in the battleground map. I think Georgia is squarely in the battleground map and they're going to have to be some tough decisions from people over the Biden campaign and others come the fall about resourcing, right? And this is where everybody talks about fundraising, vote, save all the things we're doing.
Like those are when you're a campaign manager and you sit down and the rubber meets the road and you say, okay, I have X amount of money to invest in X amount of places. That X number gets bigger.
If you have more money, it gets smaller if you have less. And so it's going to ultimately be a resource decision, but of the eight States that could tip this election, North Carolina is one of them.
Yeah. And you have X amount of candidate time and you have to decide where that person goes.
Uh, so we mentioned the governor's race, Mark lieutenant governor of the republican he's a genuinely frightening person he has a history of posting anti-semitic conspiracies he said the film black panther was a plot by agnostic jews and satanic marxists did not know that uh he wants to erase boundaries effective then because i really enjoyed it it's a great movie yeah uh he thinks church and state uh should should be synced up. No boundaries there.
Like this guy, look, he's dangerous. And it's, in my view, another reason I think, I hope the presidential will actually invest in North Carolina to at least to boost Stein.
But he's so extreme. He's made so many outrageous comments that he's Trump-like.
It can be kind of hard to know where to shoot out, what things to focus on.

What do you do with a guy like this?

That's a good question.

I said this earlier. I don't think that Trump is

a replica

model. I think Trump is

one of one.

Most famous person in the world.

I think about something Chris Christie said

back in 2015, I'll never forget it, where he said, I didn't realize I was going to be running against 15 years of The Apprentice and not just Trump the candidate. And I think that that is, or something along the way, it was something like that.
And that's what Trump is. It's not just the politician Trump that came down the escalator in 2015.
It's everything that preceded that. Mark Robinson doesn't have any of that, right? And so I think you go straight at the extremism.
I do not think that swing voters or moderate, independent, whatever you want to call them, voters in North Carolina are feeling the Mark Robinson thing the way they might feel the Trump thing. Because again, there's more to Trump than just the last eight years in a lot of their minds, uh, in terms of his brand.
So I think you go right at it.

Still think you can't,

you can't avoid talking about the bread and butter issues as it were,

but I think he is so far out of the mainstream and so not well defined in the

electorate that you can run right up the middle and,

and you know,

we could see a Mastriano Shapiro,

which is,

you know,

the Pennsylvania governor's race where Shapiro won by what,

15 points. Right.
Yeah. I mean, uh, Robinson love really liked to post on Facebook, which I think he probably regrets.
Yeah. Speaking of Georgia, Georgia's looking a little tougher.
Again, in the Marist pullout today, it's Trump winning 51% of the vote. 51 Trump, 47 Biden.
Again, snapshot in time. RFK Jr.
isn't on the ballot yet in Georgia, but Trump also wins if you include him. So it's clear that RFK Jr.
is not helping Biden. Again, snapshot in time.
RFK Jr. isn't on the ballot yet in Georgia, but Trump also wins if you include him.
So it's clear that RFK Jr. is not helping Biden anywhere.
Marist's write-up of the poll notes that Trump is gained with younger voters as compared to the 2020 exits. That seems to be a trend we're seeing in a lot of places.
What do you think is going on in Georgia? And do you think it's still like a top swing state this time? I do. I think it is different because there's no Senate race on the ballot.
There's nothing else on the ballot. No Warnock.
No Warnock, no Ossoff, no Stacey Abrams. And that, you know, Amanda Lippman talks about reverse coattails and run for something a lot.
And I think that there is something to be said about that, particularly with Warnock as an African-American from Atlanta and how he, I think, helped Biden in 2020. But I do think it's still squarely in the battleground map similar to North Carolina.
If I'm being honest, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan are still the blue wall. Like they just are.
And they're also, I think the states that probably Biden is currently strongest in. And you win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, and I think the Omaha congressional district, and you get 270 electoral votes.
I'm not suggesting that is the only path, but it's probably the path of least resistance right now. And so I think that I would put the Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, the other swing states that Biden may have won, some of which he won in 2020, in a second but close second tier.
Right, so like a 1A. Yeah.
So you mentioned Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. So you're right.
The best state for Biden in the RCP polling average at the moment is Pennsylvania. I think he's, it's tied basically.
He's down like 0.6. Then it's Wisconsin, then Michigan.
There was a Quinnipiac poll the other day that Biden down about three points in Michigan in the head to head and down five if you clued RFK and other candidates. Biden has gotten some good news recently in terms of endorsements from labor unions.
He was out on the picket line, but like, what do you think? I agree with you. These are like the blue wall states.
What do you think he needs to do to win these voters? Same as what he's been doing. I think, um, you know, Pennsylvania in particular, I think it means a lot, obviously to the Bidens, uh, and to the president personally.
And he has a sort of unique connection, I think with Pennsylvania, but Michiganigan wisconsin all those states are they're blue-collar states you know and joe is a blue-collar guy and i think you know they're disproportionately at least certainly wisconsin and to some extent michigan white whiter than the arizona's and georgia's of the world as it were and so you've just got to keep being being being jo. And, um, like I said earlier, the, the costs are still the number one issue of the economy, but specifically costs and costs of living.
And the president has a record to run on there. Right.
And a record of supporting labor and having, you know, working people in organized labor, get a, get a hand up and get a leg up in this otherwise difficult economy, creating jobs, increasing wages, you name it. And so I actually think that message sells in some ways even better in those upper or whatever you want to call them, the blue wall states than it may in the Sun Belt.
But just keep doing what you're doing and deliver it. Honestly, it's volume.
At some level, it's volume. It's like you got to break through the noise and that's what presidential campaigns do when we're all talking about it, when the media echoes with the paid media, echoes with the candidate appearances.
A lot of paid. Well, the Trump strategy seems to be a couple parts.
It's one, he's just using immigration to demagogue issues. He's trying to use immigration to split off Latino, Black, and labor voters from the Democratic Party.
He's overtly saying that Biden's bringing them in to take your job. So that's one piece of it.
And then today, actually, Biden rolled out a new rule to ensure that all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the US are electric or hybrid by 2032, something that Gavin Newsom has actually led on here in California. Obviously, that's hugely important for climate change, but Trump is trying to use that as a wedge issue to say, you know, people don't want these electric vehicles.
They don't work. We don't have plugins for them.
He's going to tank the auto industry. That was the bloodbath comment.
He needs to call his buddy Elon, but that's a conversation for another reason. Are you worried about that? I am.
If I'm going to be honest, I am. I think, because again, the margins are so close, right? And Trump is very, what Trump I think is best at in some ways in politics is driving a wedge, right? He really understands that, oh, this is the issue that touches the hot button.
He always finds it. He finds it and he just digs in and he demagogues it and he finds a way to get attention for himself, which will amplify it to the conversation we just had.
And so I am worried about it. And I think there's an anxiety in the country, right? And that is the interesting thing about this race is that despite that anxiety, it's not really a change election.
It's like a stability election. People want to feel like things are okay an order election a little bit but

better at least election it's like a stability election people want to feel like things are okay an order election a little bit but yeah but Trump is going to make try to make it a change in anxiety election and that means he's gonna keep demagoguing that stuff and so I don't know what we can do other than counter it with our own message on whether it be immigration or you know the jobs that come with a green economy and what have you. But it is definitely going to be a sort of clash of strategies and a class of messages and, you know, may the best, hopefully, liberal Democrat win.
You mentioned anxieties. My anxieties are two things that are sort of writ large.
One, there's a national pullout today by Ann Seltzer, who the iowa pollster who's like the best in the business the take home is democrats have lost the enthusiasm advantage we had prior to 2020 part of that i'm sure is whenever you're the incumbent you know people get mad at you for stuff that's happening in the world i do think a big chunk of that is gaza and what people are seeing in the news every night and the frustration people are feeling about President Biden's refusal to split from BB Netanyahu, take a harder line, cut off weapons to Israel. So I'm going to keep pounding that hobby horse.
But also I do, there's this cultural thing happening and I feel like the Democratic Party is kind of like missing out on this sweeping anti-establishment feeling that you see in a lot of ways you see it in people mad about cancel culture you see people mad about vaccine mandates people who are psyched about crypto and wanting to burn the financial system down right it's like it crosses into that weird like manosphere mma space uh i know exactly you're totally right it's like the rogan podcast world yeah the bar so sports and like this is like ill-formed idea but i just i hate that we democrats are like the establishment party now and i think for young men in particular being for trump is anti-establishment and it's cool they feel like the system has screwed them and trump can help them burn it all down you're seeing like la comedians and actors endorsing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
for some reason. And like that kind of strain of feeling and sentiment is really worrying me.
And I don't, I don't know that Joe Biden is the guy who can speak to that. I mean, I'm happy to be your, your therapist on this today.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
No, I think about it a lot too. And I think you're right, particularly, honestly, young white men, I think.
I think young men of color are also susceptible to it. But the sort of feeling of, you know, the anxiety and the feeling of loss of power that I think some status I think is also fueling a lot of that.
And look, the president is the president, first of all. So it's really hard not to be the establishment when you sit in the White House every day.

And he's, you know, been around for a long time, right?

So it's going to hard not to be the establishment when you sit in the white house every day and he's and he's you know been around for a long time right so um it's going to be hard to be the insurgent when you are sitting in in power it should be hard for trump too but somehow he pulls it off but i do think here's here would be my number one pushback on all of that is the populism the villains are actually, the corporations who are taking advantage of us.

Partially responsible,

the elites,

the people who are partially responsible for the high costs that we're

seeing out there that are,

you know,

gouging us and taking their sixth home and whatever,

San Tropez instead of,

and while workers,

um,

uh,

you know,

are on the line working harder for less.

And I've seen UAW president Fein and others sort of really harp on this, and the president has leaned into it too. I think we have to have our own villain, I guess, is kind of what I'm saying.
And I think that is... Every story has to have a villain.
And that is the actual villain, but I also think the one that is the most... The big farmers and big oils is the one that is the most authentic to who Joe Biden is and who Democrats are at this point in time.
And so we lean more into that and associate Trump and the Republican Party with that, which voters are, I think, inclined to do. They're still the party of big business, I think, in the minds of most voters.
It will help us push off as, you know, in our own anti-establishment. Yeah.
I mean, I think some of those big pharma companies paid zero dollars in taxes last year

because of the Trump tax cuts in 2017 and that's just a story we have.

And Joe Biden beat them and now we have insulin at $35, right? That is a story that fits into a

30 second ad and is a real, I think can be really effective with those people who might otherwise be

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One place Biden is winning big is in this fundraising race. He raised more than $53 million in February, and now Biden and the DNC have $155 million on hand.
The Trump campaign and the RNC have $40 million on hand at the end of January. I don't believe they've reported their February numbers yet.
Maybe I'm wrong. But so as we speak, Adisu, the Biden campaign, they're putting ads on TV.
They're opening offices in swing states. I think they just opened like 40 plus offices in Wisconsin, just remarkable and early.
They're investing in staff. The Trump campaign and the RNC, they're paying off legal bills.
They're installing Laura Trump to run the RNC. They're doing a red wedding for the rest of the staff.
The Republican state parties

in Michigan

and several other states

are just a fucking disaster.

You know,

like election deniers

and insurrectionists

leading them.

But how much do you think

money and organizing

at this stage

or the presidential level

generally matters?

I think it matters

on the margins, right?

If it's a wave election

like 1984, right? Yeah, or Reagan won 49 states. There's only so much you can do.
Campaigns can move things on the margins, right? A couple percentage points here or there. But you can write this down in ink.
This thing is going to be decided by a couple percentage points in a couple states. And so it really matters.
And I think in addition to having the bully pulpit of the of the white house as a huge advantage the the money and organizing and the sort of the fact that the democratic party despite our challenges and our divisions inside like we kind of got our shit together right now like as best as you possibly can uh certainly if you compare us to compare to the other side right and so it's a it's a good It is definitely a good thing. Is it going to be dispositive? I don't know, right? But I'd rather be us than them.

Yeah, me too. Just to put a little more meat on this bone.
So the New York Times says that outside groups have pledged over a billion dollars to help Biden's reelection. There was some strategists in this article that said they think the full total of outside money just for Biden could hit between 2.5 and $3 billion.
And we're talking about like a League of Conservation Voters pledged 120 million. The Biden campaign itself expects to raise and spend 2 billion.
The future forward Biden super PAC reserve 250 million dollars in ads. It's just like the list goes on and on it's just it's a staggering amount of money yeah we'll see if it all happens but I think uh pledges don't always come I mean we'll see I think have me back on December and see you know uh what happens but I think I think that first of all there's well intention behind them second of all some of some of them are real, right? We've seen reservations already go up.

But it really does matter.

You know, it's hard.

I came up through field.

Like I'm an organizer at heart. My first 10 years of my career, I was grinding it out in field offices in Hammond, Indiana, and everywhere else, West Des Moines, Iowa.
but I do think that as the media environment

has fractured so much

and people get their news

from so many different sources

the importance of both individual contact and paid media has actually gone up and both of those things cost a lot of money. And so, I mean, do I think that $3 billion is, I mean, I hope if, if somebody told me that $3 billion is actually going to be spent on Biden's behalf, like I could sleep better at night about the results in November.
Again, not necessarily just positive, but it would really help because it's hard to communicate with people. Even in organizing, it's hard.
It's hard to get people to answer the phone or to answer the knock at the door these days. It's hard to get media in front of them because they're not necessarily watching broadcast television or cable.
They're watching streaming or maybe they're watching YouTube or maybe they're watchingiktok which you can't advertise on so i we need as much resources as we possibly can so that we can reach people in any number of different ways it's not just going to be broadcast television like it was even probably 20 years ago right where it's just like just pile money on tv and like you see the numbers move yeah the other sort of near-term term advantage is, you know, normally after a tough primary, the campaigns try to mend fences. You know, Biden did this with Bernie Sanders in 2020 and everyone else was running against him.
Trump is just not even trying. He's still attacking Ron DeSantis with his nicknames.
Poor Tiny D. Yeah.
He's telling Haley voters that they're blacklisted if they give her money or they're not welcome. I mean, look, the cynic in me worries a bit that we're just a polarized country and eventually we sort into camps, but I don't know.
It's weird, right?

It is weird. It's just, it's textbook Trump.
I mean, like we said earlier, what, 20% of Ohio Republicans are thinking about not voting for their party's nominee. So I do think people come home at the end, particularly in presidential campaigns, Democrats and Republicans.
So I wouldn't put too much stock in it. I don't know.
What do you think? I think it's wishful thinking that a Republican in Georgia is going to vote for Joe Biden, a hardcore Republican voter. Because they're mad about a primary.
One thing that does worry me, though, about the Trump team this time around is his campaign has been far better run. They've organized well.
Their negative campaign against Haley on Social Security was really effective. And they've done it with less money.
They've done it with a lazy candidate.

They've done it with a candidate who's in courtrooms all the time. So it's impressive.

But those of us who miss the chaos and incompetence of the 2016 team.

Guess what?

Guess what? And of course they did win, but they're bringing back Paul Manafort,

Corey Lewandowski. Manafort was Trump's campaign chairman.
He was convicted of felony bank and tax fraud and at one point employed a Russian spy at his polling firm. Don't forget about that.
Trump pardoned him. Corey Lewandowski was Trump's first campaign manager.
He was accused of physically assaulting a female journalist and eventually pushed out of that job. More recently, he was pushed out of a pro-Trump super PAC after the wife of a donor accused him of making unwanted sexual advances.
Why bring these guys back? What is happening here? The guy just wants to surround himself with ass kissers. It's what it is.
And I think when the rubber meets the road, he's going to bring back the people that, to your your point he believes helped him win the first time right and who submit to his every whim and he wants everybody to kiss his ass and be under his thumb and manafort and lundowski are willing to do it and so there you go um i think it's i think i mean i don't want to sound i feel like i'm sounding too positive in some of this conversation but like yeah here's what i'll say't... Yeah, you edit out some of the good stuff so we get to the tough stuff, but they've run a good campaign.
They've run a really good campaign. Again, as a practitioner, they've run a good campaign.
The way they went after Haley and DeSantis was very smart. Destroyed DeSantis.
Destroyed them. And it is, from a practitioner's perspective, a better quality campaign to date than I think 2016 or 2020.
And so bringing back the clown show, God bless. Can we have more mess? Sure.
I love mess, as Ricardo said. So bring it on.
I do wonder if... There's part of Trump at the moment where he's just railing against the justice system, period.
And he's like, yeah, anyone who was convicted for being around me was, you know, set up by Joe Biden and the DOJ. I mean, Peter Navarro, Trump's former trade advisor, reported to prison on Tuesday for contempt of Congress because he wouldn't give testimony to the January 6th committee hearing.
So he's going to do four months in the clink. Also coming back though, with some old messaging, January 6th has become a key part of Trump's campaign messaging.
Last Sunday, he played a version of the national anthem sung by the January six riders who are currently in prison. It's wild.
I mean, that is just wild boy shit right there. Wild.
He calls them hostages. He's talking about pardoning them.
Look, it's enraging that January six didn't permanently end his career, right? Like it's shocking that we're still talking about this guy. But again, we know from polling that pardoning these people in particular is wildly unpopular.
Are you surprised that he's doing this? Why? He has no impulse control. I mean, everything I just said about the execution of his campaign has been around him, not him.

And, you know, one of the biggest frustrations for me and probably a lot of the listeners

is that the crazy shit that he said over the last six months of this primary and even in

this first sort of couple of weeks of the general election is not as prominent as we'd

like it to be.

Right.

There's it's funny because we complained about him getting too much airtime in 16 and now it's like, where are we? Where are we?'d like it to be. We'd like it to be, right? It's funny because we complained about him

getting too much airtime in 16

and now it's like,

where are we?

Where are we?

But it's true.

But he has no impulse control.

He cannot help himself.

And so I don't think he's doing this

for political reasons.

I think he's doing it because

this is how he actually feels

despite the fact that it hurts him politically.

It's our job to drive the message.

Do I think that should be at the exclusion of all the things I talked about before? Economic stuff, yeah. Economic stuff, et cetera.
The answer is no. It can work with some people and it can work as a contrast message with President Biden being the statesman that he is and Trump being whatever the fuck you want to call that.
But the core of the message I think needs to be i try i am trying to make your life better with real things like insulin for 35 bucks and health care costs are down and like you might it might be tough right now out there guys but like i'm on your side and this guy is on the side of that's where you might be able to reference it this guy's on the side of insurrectionists and corporate robber baron. Yeah, no, I agree.
I think the Biden message will probably likely be what he's done and what he wants to keep doing and how he's fighting for you. And then all that super PAC money we talked about earlier, I hope to God they are cutting ads with Mike Pence saying he's not going to endorse and talking about January 6th and just reminding people of the horror that day because it is shocking to me what we're able to memory hole in this country within days, if not weeks.
But I still think that, I don't know, I think back to where I was on January 6th, like sitting on my couch for 13 months in a row, tweeting, screaming at the Twitter machine. But I do think it horrified most of the country.
It did, it did. And I think, but you're right.
The memory hole thing is super real. Like voters do not have memory for politics.
They don't remember who is president. Well, you know, who, all sorts of things, right? And I don't blame them.
They've got more important things to think about on a daily basis, but it's our job to remind them, right? And that's what we got to do. And luckily the whole world is going to turn its attention to this competition come the fall and that's where it's all gonna shake out most of the country right now is like what yeah they're they're gearing up for march madness just like me yeah me too man uh adisu thank you so much for coming in for doing the show this was a blast and uh we're gonna take you up on this offer to come back yeah i really i honestly regret that decision that decision.
No, I'm just kidding. I'll be back.
You're not leaving this room. All right.
Take care, man. Thanks.
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