Michael Lewis on Bravery in Politics and Why Elon Musk Seems so "Disturbed"

Transcript

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Speaker 3 Welcome to Pond Save America. I'm John Lovett.
For this week's Sunday show, I'm sitting down with author Michael Lewis.

Speaker 3 Michael's most recent book, Who is Government, showcases the thankless, unglamorous work of doctors and engineers and civil servants inside the government at a time when the government is under attack.

Speaker 3 We'll talk about that and what he's learned by looking at industry contrarians and brilliant freaks. Michael Lewis, welcome to the Pod.

Speaker 2 Thank you, John. It's a pleasure to be back.

Speaker 3 So there's something that you've been talking about as you're sharing stories from this book, which is about how good the government is at counting things.

Speaker 3 Right now, in just the past couple of days, one example, Doge has shut down the research arm of the Department of Education.

Speaker 3 This is the entity that collects all kinds of data, including data that presumably you would want if you were studying government efficiency, because it collects data on what kinds of schooling are effective, what kinds are ineffective, including a bunch of longitudinal data.

Speaker 3 So this is data that's collected over years

Speaker 3 that is basically now being flushed down the toilet.

Speaker 3 Can you just talk a bit about this role that the government plays in just keeping track of the numbers and how important it is and why it gets so little attention?

Speaker 2 So, yes, I can do this a bit, but we must be aware that I'm stealing someone else's material to do this because the book is, you know, I wrote about a third of the book, but I invited six other writers to do the same thing.

Speaker 2 We just parachuted these writers into the government and said, find a story. And it was oddball writers.
It wasn't normal like daily journalists. It was novelists, stand-up comedians.

Speaker 2 And there was a novelist/slash nonfiction book writer named John Lanchester,

Speaker 2 and they're all my favorite writers kind of thing, who decided he wasn't going to write about a person. He was going to write about a statistic.

Speaker 2 And he wrote about, he made the consumer price index his

Speaker 2 subject.

Speaker 2 And he makes this really interesting point that

Speaker 2 the gathering of statistics, the counting of things, isn't just incidental to the government. It's like they're at the founding of the democracy.
You can't distribute power unless you have a census.

Speaker 2 You don't know how to distribute the power. And then he goes on to list all the things that the government counts and

Speaker 2 you know then focuses on this one thing and it's it's diabolically difficult to do it well and it isn't just the department of education in which doge and the trump administration has started to gut the the the statistical operation it's across the board um

Speaker 2 and uh i mean Consumer Price Index is a good example that they fired, there's a panel, a free panel, people who are just advising the government for free, professional statisticians, people who formerly worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics to try to always improve the consumer price index.

Speaker 2 They just dismiss them. And it's really interesting.

Speaker 2 There are a whole bunch of questions that arise from that, but

Speaker 2 one is why? Like, why would you do this? I mean, they can say at the Department of Education they're doing it that I don't cut costs, but you don't fire a free expert advice to cut costs. So that's,

Speaker 2 but, but, and the other is like, what are are the consequences of it?

Speaker 2 Like, what it, what does it mean if all of a sudden the government either stops counting it or the White House just politicizes it all and makes kind of makes stuff up.

Speaker 2 And with the Department of Education, you probably know more about the Department of Education than I do, but I do know that one purpose of what they count is to determine who's failing and who's succeeding across the country.

Speaker 2 It isn't to say that they're telling the school systems what to teach.

Speaker 2 It's just like, is this working? Are kids learning how to read and write and add and subtract and stuff? And so you lose that ability.

Speaker 2 You, of course, then lose the ability to go in and to figure out even what the problem is that you need to fix. The larger thing that is just mind-bending to me is:

Speaker 2 what happens if we actually can't trust any government statistics? Play that game. We have no portrait of ourselves anymore.

Speaker 2 People can just, all of a sudden you're divorced, you're in like a fantasy land. You could say anything, which is, of course, a land they like to be in.

Speaker 3 This is where I kind of like, do they, or do they just think that's a land they like to be in?

Speaker 2 That's a good question.

Speaker 3 Because, no, but this is, I've been, this specific example that you mentioned about the panels of people that help make sure that our understanding of

Speaker 3 inflation and other metrics are accurate.

Speaker 3 I understand why they think they will benefit from politicizing these figures. You know, they don't mind if we live in a world where,

Speaker 3 you know, every chocolate prices just keep falling, you know? Right.

Speaker 3 But they also benefited from a society that was built on this reliable data.

Speaker 3 And there is something deeper here more than just the politicization, which is our collective taking for granted of what the government does day to day. And

Speaker 3 I just want to open it up to you to talk a little bit about

Speaker 3 what led you to want to examine some of some of these sort of unsung heroes inside of the government and what you took away from it.

Speaker 2 Can I have five minutes? Because it's going to take me five minutes.

Speaker 2 It's going to sound like I'm droning on and I don't want a monologue.

Speaker 3 We just need enough to get to the next mattress set.

Speaker 2 All right.

Speaker 2 It starts because I got interested way back in the first Trump administration, right in the beginning, when he fired the transition team.

Speaker 2 And so there are 500 and something people who are supposed to go in and receive from the Obama administration the briefings across the government.

Speaker 2 And I thought that was, and he told Chris Christie that we're so smart, we can figure out what goes on inside the federal government in an hour. And I thought that was just like a great comic premise.

Speaker 2 I was going to go in, wander around the obscure parts of the government, get the briefings, and the reader would have this weird experience of knowing they knew more about the government than the administration.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 so it started that way. So that's what gets me into the government.
And then what happens is over a year, I'm just shocked.

Speaker 2 by the quality of the characters I'm meeting, these permanent civil servants.

Speaker 2 I mean, over and over, story story after story that I'm not actually even using for what I'm writing, but it's like you go into the National Weather Service, like the extreme weather forecasting unit down in Oklahoma.

Speaker 2 It's in Norman, Oklahoma. And it's filled with these smart young people.
all of whom were traumatized in youth, but like a tornado taking their house away.

Speaker 2 And that they got into it because like, I don't want bad things to happen to other people.

Speaker 2 So people who had kind of some like something deep driving them that wanted, led them to want to serve the country, build an expertise, had nothing to do with like self-promotion or making money.

Speaker 2 They walked away from the fame and the fortune that every other American wants. So I just thought, I started getting interested in the characters.
And then I found this character.

Speaker 2 At the end of the fifth risk, I just picked him basically out of a hat. I picked him off a list.

Speaker 2 It was a list of thousands of civil servants who had been furloughed during the government shutdown in 2019, early 19,

Speaker 2 and who had, um, who had been told they were inessential and sent home without pay, but who had also been nominated, not necessarily one, but nominated for some civil service award.

Speaker 2 But it was thousands of names. And I thought, what am I gonna do with this? I'll just take the first name on the list.
It was alphabetized. His name was Arthur A.
Allen.

Speaker 2 And Arthur A. Allen turned out to be the lone oceanographer in the Coast Guard Search and Rescue Division.
And I went and visited him, spent a few days with him. And

Speaker 2 what he had done, he created a science of how objects drift at sea.

Speaker 2 This is important because if you know when a person fell off a boat and you know, and you're looking three hours later, you need to know how they drift to predict where even to look.

Speaker 2 And he had done this in response to watching people die because nobody knew how to do this in the world.

Speaker 2 His work.

Speaker 2 It was so dramatic that when he spent years and years and years doing this, but when he built mathematical, basically algorithms for like 300 different kinds of objects, you know, person in a life raft, person in a life preserver, et cetera.

Speaker 2 Right after he hands this over to the Coast Guard to use,

Speaker 2 like a 350-pound man goes off the side of a cruise ship 80 miles east of Miami. They don't discover him gone for several hours.

Speaker 2 They go to the cruise ship cameras so they can see where he fell off the ship. The Coast Guard just goes right to the spot and plucks him out of the water.
Like never in human history.

Speaker 2 Like the progress in knowledge that had happened because of Arthur A. Allen ends up saving thousands of lives.

Speaker 2 And the moment, so the moment I thought, man, it was kind of like it was a combination of, oh, here's why nobody's writing about them. And, oh, here's kind of why we should.

Speaker 2 I spent three days with Arthur A. Allen, learning all about his life, learning how science.
And I ended up writing him up at the end of the book.

Speaker 2 I'm on my way back to the airport and he calls me and he says,

Speaker 2 hey, you're a writer. And I said, yeah, yeah, I'm a writer.
Of course I'm a writer. I thought, I'm sure I told you that when I called you in the first place.

Speaker 2 And he said, no, my son said, like, you write books that could turn into movies. And like, he said, are you going to write about that? All this stuff we were talking about? And I said, yeah, you know,

Speaker 2 why'd you think I was there? And he said, I just thought you were really interested in why objects, how objects drift. And at that moment, it's like, that's the civil servant.

Speaker 2 He has no idea that anybody could make a character of him or that anybody would be interested in what he does. That no ability to dramatize his own story.

Speaker 2 And I thought, like, someone should be doing this. These stories are so good that someone should be doing this.

Speaker 2 And so that was the seed was in my head a year ago when I went to an editor of the Washington Post and said, Let me hire some writers to go do this.

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Speaker 3 Just to come back to what you were saying here, that

Speaker 3 these are the kinds of stories that just aren't being told.

Speaker 3 Why?

Speaker 3 You find these fascinating characters that are doing incredible and important work.

Speaker 3 Why, why are you, you talk about as a society, we're more interested in politics than government. How do you explain that?

Speaker 2 I'll take a stab, but I think you should take a stab too, because you probably thought about this at least as much as I have.

Speaker 2 But from the perspective of not just me, but the other six writers, all of whom have clever, diabolical strategies for getting inside people's lives, this is what we discover.

Speaker 2 One is that, you know, our government compared to other democracies is politically very top-heavy.

Speaker 2 The White House appoints 4,000-something people to run this administration. And all the communications people are political people.

Speaker 2 And they're all answering to the White House. And those communications people have just got a reflex instinct that anything that gets written is likely going to be bad.

Speaker 2 Like if a reporter shows up, if a writer shows up,

Speaker 2 the downside far outweighs the upside. And so right away, you're kind of shut out.
And to write these stories, I got to live with people.

Speaker 2 And I can't go talk to them for 40 minutes in their office with a communications person present, which is is what they would do naturally.

Speaker 2 So every one of us had to go get through that phalanx of communications people. And it was not pleasant.
It was not easy. So that's one thing.

Speaker 2 It's like the political process has gotten used to the idea that we just need to minimize the story because the story ends up, can be used against us.

Speaker 2 And there's not a whole lot of upside to any given administration, to good stories about permanent civil servants.

Speaker 2 A lot of downside if they find disaster, but not a lot of upside if, oh, this guy's just saved thousands of lives. You know, nobody gets credit for that politically kind of thing.

Speaker 2 I think that's maybe one thing.

Speaker 2 The second thing is

Speaker 2 these people don't tell their own story.

Speaker 2 Like, not only are they the kind of people who don't tell their own story, the kind of person at the dinner party who doesn't speak up and at the end you realize they should have been talking the whole time because they're more interesting than everybody who spoke.

Speaker 2 They're like that.

Speaker 2 But they are in an environment where they know that the likelihood that attention is going to be positive attention is minuscule, that attention is bad and that you're going to, you know, so you hop, you keep your head down because you don't want attention.

Speaker 2 So they're not out there to, they're not, they don't step forward and they've got a wall between them and people who would tell their story.

Speaker 2 And then the third thing, it's kind of like a counter narrative, right?

Speaker 2 Like we've been living in this country with a narrative that the government's just like wasteful and fraudulent and blah, blah, blah, civil servant bureaucrats, they are.

Speaker 2 And so it's, you're challenging a stereotype in readers' heads to tell this story. And when you do that, you do meet resistance.
Like,

Speaker 2 like not everybody likes it. So, I mean, those are some of the reasons.
It's a really good question because just generally,

Speaker 2 when I find something like a vein of material, it's a bit like finding a trade in the stock market or the financial markets. It's like, why does this exist? Because maybe it's just not true.

Speaker 2 Like, maybe I'm finding a false vein of ore. But in this case, it's true.
And it is mysterious because the literary material is just so good.

Speaker 3 Yeah, well, what I'm also interested in, the ways in which the reaction that you're dealing with when you're trying to get these stories are fair, a reasonable reaction to

Speaker 3 how the government is covered, because there is a bias on the part of mainstream press towards negativity and scandal uh that that is usually why if if the if the government is calling uh about about um you know uh the faa it's because planes are touching that's right

Speaker 3 and so that is a reasonable result the other is government uh somebody that's not trained in politics is going to be a little less savvy about how to engage with a reporter may say the wrong thing, right?

Speaker 3 And they don't trust correctly that that interesting but poorly phrased sentence won't be taken out of context.

Speaker 3 And then the other piece of it is, there's a lot of scientific research that sounds silly, that sounds ridiculous, that ultimately saves lives.

Speaker 3 And if it gets in front of the right-wing press, suddenly you've got, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene waving a copy of your abstract in a congressional committee, and that's never a good idea.

Speaker 2 So there you go. I knew you'd have something to say that I didn't say.
And that's it. Sure.

Speaker 2 Imagine Arthur A. Allen at the very beginning of inventing his science.
And he's out in the Long Island Sound with these mannequins, tossing them into the water and putting little gauges on them.

Speaker 2 And it costs a little money to do it.

Speaker 2 But nothing has been yielded by this work. At that moment, if Marjorie Taylor Green entered into it, she could ridicule him and mock him.
And like, why are we paying someone to do this?

Speaker 2 That's exactly right. That's exactly right.

Speaker 2 That early science can be made to look ridiculous.

Speaker 3 And then the question, right, is sort of why is that good politics? And

Speaker 3 I do want to,

Speaker 3 we like to take a moment to blame Democrats here when we can.

Speaker 3 And some of it, right, is just viewing a lot of what the government does as self-perpetuating, that you don't have to defend it because it's what the government has always done. But in a deeper way,

Speaker 3 we pay for

Speaker 3 a lack of collective memory of what life was like before the government collected this data, right?

Speaker 3 Before, you know, not a lot of people left to remember when the rivers caught fire and all the people that were old enough to know what life was like before Social Security and Medicare are now dead, right?

Speaker 3 And so

Speaker 3 I guess I'm wondering what you've learned about how to

Speaker 3 convey and really kind of fight that stereotype to like allow the idea of government as good to sort of re-enter our collective imagination. And maybe it is just through a book like this.

Speaker 2 So first off, as to your first point there,

Speaker 2 so I actually went and ran down another man who fell off a boat and was rescued by the Coast Guard in the Pacific Ocean, fell off the back of a fishing boat, and to talk to him about why he thought he was alive.

Speaker 2 And he was alive because Arthur Allen figured out how he drifted, and he would not have been alive at any other time in human history. They would not have known where to look.

Speaker 2 And he said, yeah, I do know why I'm alive. He said, While I was at sea, I discovered Jesus.
I accepted Jesus Christ as my Lord and Savior. So

Speaker 2 he told himself the story that the Coast Guard had found him miraculously because of Jesus. The Coast Guard had found him miraculously because of Arthur A.
Allen. Now, why

Speaker 2 there's a like, there's a, I think something like that repeats itself over and over and over. People build whatever narrative they want out of whatever happened.
So that's a problem.

Speaker 2 The second part, your second part, remind me what your second question is here. It's a...

Speaker 3 Just that we all live, like we live in a world

Speaker 3 that government has made safer, healthier, freer, cleaner. And it is so taken for granted.
It is the, it is the status quo ante. And we can't imagine things getting worse again.

Speaker 2 Correct.

Speaker 2 That's true. And how you, how you remind people that this, that you shouldn't take this for granted.
I mean, so the answer really is, this is, this book is an exercise, it is that exercise.

Speaker 2 It's sort of like, um,

Speaker 2 and but having said that, so

Speaker 2 and this is one reason I did it this way. I didn't tell the writers anything about what they needed to do.
I mean, I, I wrote the first big one and the last big one, and they wrote the middle of it.

Speaker 2 And I just said, find a story,

Speaker 2 wondering what they would find. And they found over and over a version version of the same story.
Like, it is amazing what this thing has accomplished. So it inadvertently ends up being this.

Speaker 2 It could have, the book could have turned out a lot of different ways. And I don't know, you know,

Speaker 2 when you ask like how you repair this mental mistake that the population makes,

Speaker 2 this is a small attempt. It's a book, whatever.

Speaker 2 It will introduce stories into people's minds that will make them harder for them to live with the stereotype in their head of the lazy, inefficient government worker that's helpful unfortunately i think the only way you get to like a radical readjustment is some sort of crisis some sort of really existential crisis and covet wasn't enough

Speaker 3 right that's we just did that we just did that and by the way the we we created a vaccine the government led the charge to create a vaccine miracle.

Speaker 3 One of the greatest achievements in human history is the rapid scientific breakthrough that was mRNA vaccines.

Speaker 3 And the president responsible is now realizing when he's talking to his own crowds that they don't like it. Yeah.

Speaker 2 No, it's amazing. It is amazing.

Speaker 2 And I wouldn't rush. I mean, Trump deserves some credit for it, I guess.
But this goes,

Speaker 2 this was a long-term project that starts back in like the Bush administration

Speaker 2 that

Speaker 2 then begins with

Speaker 2 a pandemic planning exercise that

Speaker 2 and seeding these companies or investing in these companies that develop the mRNA vaccines was a government triumph.

Speaker 2 And it was long and slow, not dramatic, though the result was kind of dramatic, very dramatic,

Speaker 2 and kind of a hard story for people to internalize. It's not that, it's also just,

Speaker 2 these are hard stories to tell. I think that's part of the problem.
And you know, here's here's a question. I have a question for you, but you're a good person to answer this question.

Speaker 2 I thought on the back end of Trump and seeing the way he approached the federal government and

Speaker 2 the disaster that was his COVID response, that there was a chance that Democrats would

Speaker 2 engage in a full-throated, not just defense, but sort of

Speaker 2 full-throated explanation of government, that government would be, that they would, that they want to sell the government in a way, explain it.

Speaker 2 And they didn't. You know, it was sort of like government's sort of like something you don't want to talk about when you're running for office.
And I don't know why that is.

Speaker 1 I don't either.

Speaker 3 There is a kind of big difference between Republicans and Democrats. And I think it is in part because Republicans have always viewed themselves as

Speaker 3 against the mainstream political establishment inside the government, inside the media, and of course

Speaker 3 against Democrats. And Democrats have a different relationship with those institutions.
But, you know, it's not, I remember, you know, George W. Bush,

Speaker 3 maybe it was Carl Rove or one of his advisors talking about that they were in the reality just distortion business, that they were going to change reality. Remember this? Yep.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 Republicans are much more comfortable understanding that for them to get the world to look the way they want the world to look, they're going to have to change how they're going to say what they're going to say.

Speaker 3 And their job is to change the perspective, change how people see it. And Democrats are a bit more afraid of that, right? Right now, poll after poll shows that people don't think the government works.

Speaker 3 They think the status quo is failing them. There's a lot of truth to that, by the way.
And that's one place I want to get to, right? One part of this is, why don't people like the government?

Speaker 3 One aspect of it is they don't think the government works. And maybe parts of it, they're right.

Speaker 3 But they look at that and they say, oh, people don't want me to defend the the government. They want me to say, I hate the government.
I think the government's bad.

Speaker 3 But there's a kind of a failure of imagination

Speaker 3 to think about what it would look like if Democrats collectively decided to try to persuade people.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 not just on the margins on a specific policy question, but to have a vision.

Speaker 3 that fundamentally alters the perspective the American people have on an issue.

Speaker 3 Republicans have been much more willing to do that, in part, I think, because Republicans understood that some of their positions were far more unpopular, right? Like being pro-life was unpopular.

Speaker 3 Being for tax cuts for the rich is deeply unpopular. Being against environmental regulations are fundamentally unpopular.

Speaker 3 They know they start from behind. They may, you know, dissemble about the media or blame bias or whatever it may be, but on some level, they know that they're fighting for an unpopular policy.

Speaker 3 And Democrats are just, I think, more afraid to do that. And also, I think some of them, it's just not there.
They are institutionalists.

Speaker 3 They are kind of establishment types and they don't like bucking the trend. You know, you think about, anyway, I don't know the answer, but I'm not sure if you may have explained it.

Speaker 2 And it's Republicans have the benefit of the kind of the guerrilla warfare tactics. If they're, if

Speaker 2 they're, they're operating, when you know you're going to lose if you play the same game, you have to play a different game.

Speaker 2 And so that's the game they've chosen to play. But it's,

Speaker 2 there is,

Speaker 2 there,

Speaker 2 I mean, on the evidence of the two books I've now published on the subject, there's a big market for just for discussing these subjects, for

Speaker 2 one, explaining what government is doing

Speaker 2 and

Speaker 2 talking about where it works, not just where it doesn't work. I mean, we spend a lot of time talking about where it doesn't work, right?

Speaker 2 Whenever anything bad happens, whenever there's a little scandal, it gets amplified.

Speaker 2 There's very little attention paid to the bright spots. And the bright spots are just sort of taken for granted.
You know, it's just like, oh, that happened.

Speaker 2 Oh, I I got plucked out of the ocean by the Coast Guard, whatever. I don't know how they did that.
And it's interesting to see, you know, why it works when it works.

Speaker 2 And one of the patterns that emerges through the stories, I think, in the book, is that it works better if it's at some distance from the political process.

Speaker 2 If the person

Speaker 2 is not constantly being somehow monitored by the political process.

Speaker 2 They're on a longer leash.

Speaker 2 It's true of all the bright spots that we've written about.

Speaker 2 It's like the person was given for whatever reason, different reasons at different places, latitude to operate, kind of the way you might be given latitude to operate in the private sector.

Speaker 2 And then we don't usually do that in the public sector. You know, everything,

Speaker 2 the idea that the Elon Musk idea, I guess it's his idea. Who knows? He says something different every day, but that they're going in to find

Speaker 2 corruption, fraud

Speaker 2 in the federal government, it's insane.

Speaker 2 There's so much more fraud in the private sector than there is in the public sector, that everything there is watched.

Speaker 2 Like, you can't take a federal worker out for a sandwich without them insisting that they got to pay for it. Because they know this is a reflexive fear.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 they are, you know, every agency has and used to have an inspector general who would get them in trouble if they did stuff they shouldn't do.

Speaker 2 There are mechanisms for identifying and preventing fraud in the federal government that don't exist in the private sector.

Speaker 2 So they're problems in government, but they're not the problems that everybody thinks are the problems.

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Speaker 3 I do think there's a nuance because you're right, right? The examples that you're talking about are people that are able to operate outside of the kind of evil eye of politics.

Speaker 3 But then I also think of moments when government has worked well or better because of politics. And what I always,

Speaker 3 I remember when, you know, right now there's a bipartisan fury at the idea that we're not going to fund PEPFAR.

Speaker 3 And I remember when Bush was setting up PEPFAR, he stood it up outside of USAID because they understood that USAID was a bureaucratic mess, had tons of problems.

Speaker 3 And so, what we're going to do is we're going to stand this up outside so it can be efficient and effective and move quickly.

Speaker 2 It's going to be more political.

Speaker 3 You look at what happens when the Biden administration goes to implement the CHIPS Act.

Speaker 3 They look for a bunch of exemptions to a bunch of government rules so that it could be run quickly and move quickly, right? Sometimes political passion and attention can help and make things happen.

Speaker 3 And I think that comes back to kind of a problem from both directions, which is you catalog,

Speaker 3 this is in The Premonition, this is in The Fifth Risk,

Speaker 3 and you and your fellow writers in this book, these sort of heroes inside of a machine. But there is often a machine, right? There is often a slow-moving,

Speaker 3 kind of feckless bureaucracy that they're trying to fight against. And I'm just wondering if you

Speaker 3 have any reflections on

Speaker 3 not the heroes, but

Speaker 3 the water they're swimming against.

Speaker 2 The Centers for Disease Control is a really interesting case study. I mean, this is the premonition.
And it wasn't, I didn't have any, it's like

Speaker 2 just generally the way I operate is I don't come in with a big theory and try to prove it, that I'm just kind of watching and the story emerges.

Speaker 3 And people hate that about you, by the way.

Speaker 2 It really does. It really annoying.

Speaker 3 It really irks a lot of reviewers.

Speaker 2 I know. Sometimes it does.
It's funny.

Speaker 2 But I learned long ago that editors sitting around a table deciding what the story was always yielded really boring journalism and false kind of. Like, go get this story.

Speaker 2 And you don't know what the story is until you're out there talking to people and watching.

Speaker 2 And this was true of the premonition.

Speaker 2 But I was kind of shocked to learn that the Centers for Disease Control

Speaker 2 had suffered over several decades, a decline in prestige, a decline in internal morale, a decline in a sense of its own ability to do anything except sort of observe and study disease, not control it.

Speaker 2 And that you could trace it back, according to people inside it, the old-timers, to a decision made by the Reagan administration to turn the head of the centers,

Speaker 2 the director, into a politically appointed position, as opposed to a career civil servant who endured through administrations.

Speaker 2 And that this had had the effect of from the very top down, keeping one eye on the White House and the political process and that when they made decisions, and this was a very bad influence when you were trying to control disease.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 this does not mean this is a universal truth that having political influence in a problem is a bad idea. But I think there's some some problems that are best dealt with with the

Speaker 2 politicians at arm's length. Controlling the money supply would be a very good example of that.

Speaker 2 Sort of like we put the Fed on a, it's a political institution.

Speaker 2 At some point, the political process touches it, but it doesn't micromanage it.

Speaker 2 So that one observation is that when there are problems that they're very clear, a set of problems that are best dealt with by a permanent staff that has,

Speaker 2 it's not completely detached from the political process, but it's on a longer leash kind of thing.

Speaker 2 But maybe there are other problems that would be better dealt with on a shorter leash. I mean, I think all problems are not the same problems.

Speaker 2 The bigger thing is that the government is dealing with all the problems the private sector can.

Speaker 2 It's like when the private sector has no interest in a problem because there's no money to be made, but the problem needs to be addressed, it winds up in the government. It's a bit like

Speaker 2 President Obama told me when I went and wrote about President Obama. He said,

Speaker 2 this job is a decision-making job, and all the decisions that get to my desk are horrible decisions because anybody who, any easy decision got made way below me.

Speaker 2 And it's a bit, the government's a bit like that. It's like all the problems that are really hard problems that the private sector can't make a fortune off of end up in the government.

Speaker 2 So no wonder it's tough. right already you're dealing with a set of problems that are very tough problems and that the that they're hard hard to find the financial incentive to deal with them.
So

Speaker 2 it's a thorny and difficult subject. And

Speaker 2 if there's, I mean, I'm coming at it not as a intellectual or a theorist, I'm coming at it as a writer and an observer.

Speaker 2 But the one big observation of who is government of the book is there's so much to learn from the things that work. And all we do is look at the things that don't.

Speaker 3 So let's talk about that too. So in the fifth risk, you mentioned this earlier.
You talked,

Speaker 3 basically at the Department of Energy, they've set up desks

Speaker 3 for the incoming Trump administration to sit at because they assume somebody's going to show up and nobody comes.

Speaker 2 Right.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 I've wondered, like thinking back, is the fifth risk at this point

Speaker 3 almost like like naive about how bad this could get.

Speaker 3 I'm wondering like what what lessons you take from the fifth risk about their kind of carelessness about what government does or doesn't do and how that is now being applied sort of in the extreme by Doge under Trump now.

Speaker 2 The indifference that Donald Trump had to the federal government he was meant to run was breathtaking. And at the time, I remember thinking, I understand why he didn't,

Speaker 2 he never had in mind that he was going to be running the federal government because he'd never had in mind he was going to win, That he was running as a marketing stunt in the beginning, and it just kind of the dog, the dog caught the car.

Speaker 2 And so that's Trump won. Trump two, the dog's trying to drive the car, and that's a different story.

Speaker 2 But Trump won the that, so there was what does it say about a man that he is given this awesome responsibility of managing this two, three million person workforce by surprise.

Speaker 2 And his response is, I don't need to know about it. um

Speaker 2 it wasn't

Speaker 2 it wasn't just it wasn't just negligence it was negligence it was actually a feature of his way of moving through the world that he didn't want to know and not wanting to know it's sort of like

Speaker 2 when you don't accept the responsibility of having to know of acquiring knowledge of learning

Speaker 2 It puts you in a different position in relation to the institution.

Speaker 2 You can say and do anything without any kind of responsibility because you don't have anything in your head saying, oh, I shouldn't do that.

Speaker 2 So I think the lack of knowledge was sort of a feature nut bug of his

Speaker 2 MO of running things. Like he really didn't, it wasn't that he didn't know.
It was that he really didn't want to know. And

Speaker 2 which is so

Speaker 2 such an odd way of moving through the world.

Speaker 2 But I thought Trump won, I thought, as I said, I kind of thought comedy at first, like that he doesn't care enough to go and really screw it up uh that he'll just it will be it will be neglect kind of thing and we'll see the consequences of neglect but we can recover from that what I didn't what that where I didn't jump to in my mind right away but eventually did was that if he doesn't care enough to pay any attention there are lots of other people who do care who will attach themselves to him and and do what they want to do with this enterprise and he won't care about whatever they do he'll be indifferent to it until it affects him in some personal way.

Speaker 2 So that's, you know, Project 2025 is that, I think, you know, these people at the Heritage Foundation dreaming up a whole new plan for how we govern or don't govern ourselves and insinuating themselves into his world in various ways.

Speaker 2 And then he doesn't care enough to stop them. And so there they are.

Speaker 2 And then, I mean, now it gets more, I mean, the fifth risk, it didn't feel, I didn't feel like I was watching an autocrat take over an enterprise and try to bend it to his will.

Speaker 2 I felt like I was watching a doofus who didn't have any idea what he was doing, letting all kinds of unqualified people in to

Speaker 2 maybe do nothing. Appoint Rick Perry to the head of the energy department when Perry didn't know what was in the energy department kind of stuff.

Speaker 2 And this time, it feels like, no, this is a purposeful warping of the enterprise to reduce it to nothing more than an instrument for Donald Trump's personal ambition. That

Speaker 2 instead of taking an oath to the Constitution, the millions of federal workers are basically supposed to take an oath to Donald Trump. And that anything that

Speaker 2 impedes anything he wants to do, scratch whatever itch he wants to scratch, will be eliminated.

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Speaker 3 There's a way in which this is sort of a kind of traditional first term, second term dynamic playing out, but in this sort of bizarro, evil version, which is I think a lot of presidents in their first term feel like they work for the White House.

Speaker 3 And then in the second term, they've gotten their bearings and how the White House works for them, right?

Speaker 3 When Donald Trump became president,

Speaker 3 there was a fear in him, I think. There was a fear in how Donald Trump was going to operate, right? He had all these sort of, you know, he wanted good press and he wanted the stock market to do well.

Speaker 3 He wanted to get credit for being the best president ever.

Speaker 3 But

Speaker 3 when what they call the deep state pushed back,

Speaker 3 they were cowed by it, right? There's a lot of things the Trump administration was stymied from doing. And this time they feel like they're not willing to be stymied.

Speaker 3 And yet they still don't know what the government does. They are still people who don't seem to know what it does.
And I'm wondering, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are different people.

Speaker 3 Elon Musk is not as stupid. as Donald Trump, and he's done real things in his life.
He is genuine mastery in his life.

Speaker 3 And yet, he has now spent months going inside of the government and seems to have learned nothing about it.

Speaker 3 And I'm wondering how you explain someone who clearly has moments where he's able to understand the deep functioning of a rocket ship, a car company, whatever, approaching this in such a cavalier way.

Speaker 2 I could, I don't, I've never, I haven't spoken to him, and I'm, I'm guessing. I'm flying by radar here, but there are a couple of thoughts pop to mind.
The more reasonable interpretation is that

Speaker 2 he comes from the private sector and his one experience of really like reforming an institution is Twitter.

Speaker 2 I mean, he didn't, it's funny, he didn't found any of the companies he's famous for founding, right? He just came in, he didn't found Tesla. But,

Speaker 2 and presumably someone else is mostly managing it.

Speaker 2 But he, in a great public way, took over Twitter and clearly thought that if you got a, he wanted to reduce headcount, the way you do it is this dramatic way.

Speaker 2 You just basically fire everybody and hire back who you need and um

Speaker 2 which may or may not work in the private sector certainly doesn't seem to have worked for Twitter it's hard to know but I before he just sold it to himself at a at what looks like an inflated price to me um

Speaker 2 I know people who invested alongside him who had lot felt they lost half their investment. So

Speaker 2 I'm not sure even that was a smart way to do that, but he has that metaphor in his head, like run it like the private sector.

Speaker 2 And in the private sector, you're ruthless to the employees and all that it's not really true like i don't think there's any a whole lot of smart managerial types in the private sector who think the best thing to do is traumatize your workforce first um and insult them and condescend them and all the rest and i don't think you know i think there's this halo thing that goes on with elon musk that because he's got a lot of money and he's been present and involved in marketing things very well and with startups he's he's he's a he's a good front man for for businesses that he has some managerial gift.

Speaker 2 And I'm not sure he's ever really displayed that managerial gift, but he may think he has it and other people do.

Speaker 2 So then the polite explanation is this is his model for how you do it in the private sector and that's better than the public sector. And he's just going to impose this.

Speaker 2 So that maybe that's one explanation. It doesn't really ring completely true to me.
I think that

Speaker 2 I think he gets off. I think there's some psychological, he's just, I think he's a disturbed person

Speaker 2 and like mentally not stable. And he's clearly kind of addicted to controversy and to back and forths on little duels on Twitter and all the rest.

Speaker 2 And so anything he does that provokes those kind of gets him high. It's like a drug.
And this is a way to do it to the opposition. And no one immediately around him comes back at him on it because

Speaker 2 he's got like-minded people just around him. And so

Speaker 2 the actual controversy is what he's after.

Speaker 2 And that may be part of it.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 Donald Trump's letting him do it.

Speaker 2 The other part of it is, like Trump, he may be seeking to eliminate anything that gets in the way of his personal ambition. And one thing that gets in the way is regulators.

Speaker 2 I mean, they've been, they essentially seem to be gutting regulation everywhere they turn. And

Speaker 2 the refereeing function of the federal government.

Speaker 2 Another thing that gets in the way is law.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 it's congruent. What he's doing is congruent with his own narrow interests,

Speaker 2 or seems to be,

Speaker 2 but isn't fully explained by it. I think that

Speaker 2 to some extent, you can explain it, that you're dealing with someone who's not, he's kind of unhinged

Speaker 2 and he's got a screw-loose.

Speaker 2 he's doing things just because he can do them.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 when you get upset,

Speaker 2 it makes him happy. Literally, you.

Speaker 2 When you all get upset,

Speaker 2 he thinks that works. That shows it's working.
He's owning you.

Speaker 3 Right. Well,

Speaker 3 the reason I ask about it is there's a, I don't know if you would agree, but to me, there is some kind of a through line here.

Speaker 3 You look at people who, for various differing motivations, some good, some not,

Speaker 3 look at a consensus in an industry, inside an institution, and decide that they see a better way to do it.

Speaker 3 And they're willing to take a risk, whether it's risking their professional lives or risking financial success in order to pursue something that a lot of people are telling them is either dumb or wrong or going to hurt them in some way.

Speaker 3 And I'm wondering if you, like, look, I'm not high-frequency traders with like a Pepsi Rolex are not the same as a charity dean. You know, these are not the same kinds of people.

Speaker 3 But I'm wondering if you see a connection. between the kinds of people that are willing to say, hold on a second, the way we're doing things doesn't make sense.
I see a different path.

Speaker 2 Yeah, no, you know, in a funny, in the very beginning, in the very beginning, I had a sliver of hope. That's what we were going to be watching with him.

Speaker 2 That it would, he could actually, the government does need work. It's not like it's all great.

Speaker 2 I mean, it's got a pay system that goes back to 1949. It's got, it's too hard to fire people.
There's a lot of problems. People aren't incentivized properly.

Speaker 2 The problem with trying to like makes rationalize what he's doing is that the thing, the specific things he's doing

Speaker 2 are the opposite of what he says he's doing so let's just take them he in the beginning he said he was going to cut two trillion dollars out of the out of the deficit um

Speaker 2 uh and he was going to eliminate waste fraud and abuse that was the that was the mission and he focused entirely on

Speaker 2 on the civilian the civil service

Speaker 2 which is, you know,

Speaker 2 like 86% of the budget is, you know this, it's either military interest payments on the debt or entitlements. So that was, that's off the table in the very beginning.

Speaker 2 And so he's looking at 14% of the budget. And, and, and of that,

Speaker 2 a fraction is the pay of these people he's trying to get rid of. He, so he's not going to get to his eliminate the deficit this way.
That doesn't

Speaker 2 make any sense to go at it this way. And then, and then he starts, he starts by firing inspector generals.

Speaker 2 And those are the, that's the quickest way to identify the fraud and the abuse and even the waste.

Speaker 2 And so

Speaker 2 you do, he's doing the opposite of what you would do. If you or I walk in there, we would go right to the inspector general and say, let's beef you up and let's go.
And

Speaker 2 so

Speaker 2 he's doing, it's a little hard to

Speaker 2 figure out what he's even trying to achieve because he's saying something is obviously quite different from what he intends to do. So you're in the land of guessing.

Speaker 2 Right.

Speaker 3 Well, there's the, it's guessing, but then it's also like, even if you look,

Speaker 3 it's, I think there's like sort of an original sin here, which is thinking that one person can do any of this, right? Like, forget going to the inspector.

Speaker 3 Like, if you were trying to go in and say, let's cut, we need to cut a trillion dollars from this budget. You would go to the department heads and you'd say, you have a month.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 Come to me.

Speaker 3 Come to me with cuts. Yes.
You know your agency better than me. I don't care how you do it.
I need to see results. Yep.
But he doesn't do any of that. No.
He fires the people that do that. Right.

Speaker 2 And he thinks he's smarter. And it's a funny, it's just a funny reflex we have in American life right now.
And it's probably a byproduct of inequality that he has $300 billion.

Speaker 2 So therefore he's smarter than everybody and everything.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 as opposed to having some narrow skill set that because he lives in this very indulgent society has yielded him $300 billion,

Speaker 2 it doesn't mean.

Speaker 2 It doesn't mean he's best at managing the federal government. And it comes in knowing nothing.
So

Speaker 2 no, it's just not the way you would go, you or I or any sensible person would go about it.

Speaker 2 But because he has

Speaker 2 got this glow of a very rich person,

Speaker 2 it's just assumed he knows what he's doing. And

Speaker 2 I'm convinced he doesn't.

Speaker 2 But back to your original point was like,

Speaker 2 I think you were saying, like, maybe we need something like this to

Speaker 2 jar this institution because otherwise it's it's unmovable.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 it isn't how you do it, but that idea might not be completely wrong. And

Speaker 2 the other idea, so the other hope I had for it was one of the big problems with the federal government is it just has real trouble for good for reasons we've been discussing implicitly in attracting talented young people to work for it.

Speaker 2 Because, like, who would want to work for a place where they only slap you around when you do something bad, but don't celebrate you when you do something good and it doesn't pay very well and all the rest.

Speaker 2 And I thought, thought, like, he's bringing all these young people in and they can code, and like, this could yield something.

Speaker 2 Uh, but then again, one of the first things they do is fire all the probationary workers. Those are the ones they can't have the civil service protections.
And who are those people?

Speaker 2 They're the young people, they're the ones who've just joined. And they're the young people and the people who've been hired to handle some specific problem that is urgent now.

Speaker 2 So he's firing exactly the wrong people

Speaker 2 if you're trying to do that.

Speaker 2 So I

Speaker 2 there, he's got, nobody thinks they're stupid. Nobody thinks they're crazy.
He will, no doubt, if we sat down with him, would have a story to tell us that sounds more intelligent than

Speaker 2 what we're groping for here.

Speaker 2 But he hasn't told it. Like, whatever it is, it's behind closed doors.
We haven't heard it.

Speaker 3 Right. And it's not clear, right? It's not clear when he makes up stories about how the Democrats are using Social Security to bribe people to become voters.

Speaker 3 it's not clear whether he genuinely believes that or if he believes that that's valuable,

Speaker 3 a valuable way to describe what would be ultimately seen as a deeply unpopular gutting of the federal government.

Speaker 3 I think the reason I was asking about that, though, is putting Musk aside, you write about people that go inside of institutions and say, I'm going to do this a different way.

Speaker 3 And I look at the Republican Party.

Speaker 3 And if you would have gave me a list of 100 Republicans in 2007 and said, hey, 10 of these people are going to to blow up their lives because they believe Donald Trump is a threat and 90 of them are going to go along.

Speaker 3 I probably would have picked the wrong people.

Speaker 2 Oh, you know? Oh.

Speaker 3 But like, you write about people that are going to be...

Speaker 2 Let me stop you on that. Who would you have picked?

Speaker 3 I have no idea. I have no idea, but I don't think I would have expected like Bill Crystal to be applauding Bernie Sanders, right?

Speaker 3 And I and I would have been, I think, surprised by the number of politicians that acquiesced and the number of consultants who actually showed great courage, right?

Speaker 3 It's been a number of Republican right-wing political consultants that have refused to go along while all the kind of politicians have caved. I probably would not have picked Dick Cheney.
Yep.

Speaker 3 I wouldn't have picked Liz Cheney. When Liz Cheney ran for the Senate in Wyoming, I thought she was disgusting because she was campaigning against what they called the ground zero moss, right?

Speaker 3 Like she was, to me, the Republican Party at its worst. And then here she is campaigning with Kamala Harris, which obviously worked pretty poorly.
But

Speaker 2 I would never know who's going to be brave and who's going to be a coward.

Speaker 3 Right. And I'm curious what you've, but like, you, you know, Charity Dean had post-it notes, right, about how to be brave.
Right. And, and that's, you know, that's a shameful thing, right?

Speaker 3 It's, it's shameful for a system to require bravery in order to do the right thing. That's a, that's a problem.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 But I'm wondering what, what you learned about what, like, why are some people brave in these moments? And, and what do we do to encourage that?

Speaker 2 I mean, that's a great question. It's not a question I've ever, so I'm going to be answering this on the fly.
Great.

Speaker 2 My first step in answering that question is

Speaker 2 I think that people,

Speaker 2 first place,

Speaker 2 Red Badge of Courage, you know,

Speaker 2 Danny Kahneman used to love the psychologist who I wrote about in the Doing Project used to love this story as an example of what he thought was true, that behavior is so context dependent.

Speaker 2 and the same soldier who runs away in one battle is incredibly brave in another that it's not that the person is brave the person is entirely brave or entirely cowardly but that it's some combination of the person and the situation and so you never you never know because

Speaker 2 it's not just the person you're evaluating you're evaluating a complicated thing the mood they're in when they're required to make a decision or whether they're going to be brave how vulnerable they feel in that moment, whatever it is.

Speaker 2 So, so

Speaker 2 that's part of my answer: that this isn't stable.

Speaker 2 They're brave acts and cowardly acts, but it is not exactly right that they're brave people and cowardly people totally.

Speaker 2 However, I do think like a one precondition for the brave behavior is having a firm narrative in your head about who you are and what your life is about. And this was Charity Dean.

Speaker 2 She had insisted on this narrative for so long that she didn't know how she had, she's just, she didn't know how to do anything else. Or if she did anything else, it made her very uncomfortable.

Speaker 2 And there are different ways to acquire this narrative.

Speaker 2 John McCain had this narrative in his head, right?

Speaker 2 If John McCain was around, he would not have, he wouldn't be sucking up to Trump. You know, he would have blown up his political career before he sucked up to Trump.
And

Speaker 2 so

Speaker 2 I think narrative is a personal narrative is a very powerful thing.

Speaker 2 And when your narrative, so what is the, what is the substitute or what's inside of people when they don't have that narrative of I'm going to do what's right and I'm willing to pay a price.

Speaker 2 They usually have a narrative, a kind of vague narrative of personal ambition. It's like, I'm going to win.
I'm going to get ahead. I'm shrewd.
I'm a winner. you know, all that.

Speaker 2 And that when you, when that's the narrative, then you're really susceptible.

Speaker 2 like it comes along something like Trump comes along and you know you want to win you don't you don't you don't want to there's no point it's very easy to say there's not my it would be no point to being brave because I'll just get plowed over and I won't make any difference at all I'm sure that's what most of these people are telling themselves I'm remaining relevant for the good of my country not seeing that in fact they've rendered themselves a part of the problem

Speaker 3 yeah no I think that's and I think there's something deeper to what you're saying too, right? Because implicit in what you're saying is, I don't live in a society that rewards bravery anymore.

Speaker 3 You can't win by being brave, right? And I, and that does seem to be part of what Trump is doing as well, right? When you fire the inspectors general, when you

Speaker 3 fire, when you, when you shut down the CDC's FOIA office, right? When you make accountability something you'll never have to face, right?

Speaker 3 When there's no price to doing the wrong thing, suddenly it becomes an advantage. And he wants everyone to think people think and act like him.

Speaker 3 And one way you do that is making bravery a bad investment.

Speaker 2 Yes. And he's hostile to bravery, right? Remember how hostile he was to John McCain's personal bravery? He's hostile to that and he's hostile to, I think this is a corollary.
He's hostile to trust

Speaker 2 that

Speaker 2 I found, and if you're going to kind of try to predict what Donald Trump's going to do next,

Speaker 2 look for where there is still trust and assume he's going to come for it.

Speaker 2 That

Speaker 2 our money, the dollar is a natural target. But it's like assume that we're,

Speaker 2 you may not even, the trust is usually assumed. Once you've got it, you're not really, it's there in the air you breathe, but be careful about taking it for granted because he doesn't like it.

Speaker 2 He doesn't like it for, I think, a really specific sort of lizard brain reason. He's so untrustworthy.
I mean, it is, it's not even an insult to say, right? It's just a fact.

Speaker 2 Like you have to, like, he just lies all the time. He lies so much that he lies so much that when he says something is true, it feels like an accident.

Speaker 2 And it's just like it's an impulse. It's almost like a reflex.
I just, lying is better

Speaker 2 is sort of how, and he cheats people. You know, it's just like one thing after another.

Speaker 2 So if he's in an environment, if he's in a small environment where everybody, it's, it's trust-based and people can trust each other, that environment spits him out. very quickly.
He does not succeed.

Speaker 2 But if he's in an environment where nobody can trust anybody, he's really good in that environment. He's really good at taking advantage of his,

Speaker 2 all his

Speaker 2 dishonesty.

Speaker 2 It works. It works better.
He's better being dishonest than other people. And

Speaker 2 so

Speaker 2 I think that like one way, one frueline in our government is there's lots of trust that's sort of built into it. We just take for granted.

Speaker 2 We take for granted that someone's keeping our water clean and that we can take our the pills that our doctor prescribes and it's safe and that we can eat the food and not get sick and whatever it is.

Speaker 2 And that those

Speaker 2 things

Speaker 2 are in some way antagonistic to

Speaker 2 his purpose on earth. And so, watch out because he's coming for them.

Speaker 3 One aspect of trust in a society is journalism. And I was

Speaker 3 thinking about how much

Speaker 3 the ability to report on powerful figures has changed since you wrote, say, Liar's Poker, right?

Speaker 3 And I'm wondering if you feel that change, right? Like

Speaker 3 today, there would be non-disclosure agreements. Today you'd be getting phone calls from lawyers.

Speaker 2 What like it's really changed.

Speaker 3 And do you feel that?

Speaker 2 Do you feel that when you're talking about it?

Speaker 2 Let me just tell you a story. It's amazing how it changed.
So I worked for the most powerful firm on Wall Street, Solomon Brothers.

Speaker 2 I worked when I joined, they were making so much more money than everybody else on Wall Street. It looked like they were in a different business.
It was, it was a force. I left three years later.

Speaker 2 When I was walking out the door, I told my bosses I was going to write a book about Wall Street. And their response was: it didn't even occur to them they could stop me.

Speaker 2 And in addition, they weren't even worried about it. That they were like, they were worried about me.
Like, you're leaving all this money behind. There's something wrong with you.

Speaker 2 Like, don't blow up your career.

Speaker 2 It was their attitude. It was sweet in a way.
The book comes out. There's a brief attempt to sort of add a counter-narrative from

Speaker 2 a weak Solomon Brothers

Speaker 2 PR firm kind of of thing, but not much. And that's it.

Speaker 2 The book just had its life. If I were coming out of the equivalent institution now, and the equivalent institution would be, say, Jane Street or Citadel, it would be a high-frequency trading firm.

Speaker 2 I would have signed non-disclosure agreements going in.

Speaker 2 They'd be lawyered up from the moment I walked out

Speaker 2 if I was going to do anything like this. I mean, well, look what happened to the woman who just wrote the Facebook book,

Speaker 2 right? I mean, she couldn't get on TV all of a sudden because she had signed agreements that said she wouldn't disparage Mark Zuckerberg or Facebook.

Speaker 2 But the big thing is the fear of lawsuits that the publisher or that whatever media enterprise I was dealing with would have deterred them from publication.

Speaker 2 And would it have stopped publication of Liar's poker? I don't know. Maybe.
I don't know. I doubt it.
But it would have been harder.

Speaker 2 And what happens is, you know, it's the equivalent of what is that Timothy Snyder line about the the guy who wrote On Tyranny, anticipatory obedience.

Speaker 2 You're seeing a lot of it now. You're seeing a lot of people sort of

Speaker 2 Jeff Bezos, you know, it sort of reconfigure their lives and the way they go through the world so as not to run afoul of Donald Trump.

Speaker 2 There's a kind of anticipatory obedience that goes on in the head of a writer or a journalist when they know that it is going to be a huge pain in the ass and a great risk to me to write about Ken Griffin, how to citadel.

Speaker 2 You know,

Speaker 2 I'll hear from the lawyers right away. I don't want to do it.
And

Speaker 2 why is this? Why has this changed? It's changed because we all of a sudden have not millionaires among us, but billionaires who use the law as a weapon.

Speaker 2 And it makes it really hard for the truth about people like Elon Musk to come out.

Speaker 2 Elon Musk might not be the best example, but it's just that, so it is a harder environment to do this sort of, to get transparency about the most powerful people in the society.

Speaker 3 Last question, and I have no knowledge, but I was thinking about this before the interview. And if I were a betting man, and I am, I'd bet you're interested in artificial intelligence.

Speaker 3 I just have a, that would be what I would bet you're interested in. And I'm wondering if that's true.

Speaker 3 And I'm wondering if you have questions about the way artificial intelligence companies are kind of recklessly putting this technology into the world while behind the scenes lamenting that it may lead to the destruction of humanity and what whether it's flashboys or going infinite uh leads you to wonder about what these companies are doing

Speaker 2 so

Speaker 2 when i think about taking on subjects one of the things i ask is what can i add like it's highly unlikely that i'm going to add anything to high-level discussions about artificial intelligence.

Speaker 2 I can't code a computer. You know,

Speaker 2 I don't know what's going on in there. I do know that it's pretty clear that the people who are the leaders of the movement, they don't know either.

Speaker 2 That nobody seems to know anything. It feels like what people used to say about Hollywood.

Speaker 2 They say lots of stuff about where this is headed. A lot of what they say is connected to their financial interest.
And so it's very hard to know what to think.

Speaker 2 And so my response to it, my literary response to it, I have one. I I have one, one, I mean, I have all kinds of other responses.

Speaker 2 It bothers me some that they're stealing my books to train their models and that kind of thing.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 I've enjoyed my interactions with Sam Altman. I think he's an really interesting person.

Speaker 2 And I had a dinner with him. That's like two years ago.
And I thought there is a great book to do. if you want to do it.
I said this to him,

Speaker 2 that all kinds of people want to write his biography and he was asking me about who might do it. And I said, don't let anybody do it.

Speaker 2 Let's let, when you are comfortable with your machine, with chat, GPT, whatever,

Speaker 2 writing your biography, let me supervise it. Let me let it write your biography and let me write the biography of it while it's writing your biography.

Speaker 2 So I can watch, because this is what interests me. I want to understand how it thinks and how it's different from how I think.
And

Speaker 2 because I don't think it'll ever be the same. I think

Speaker 2 it's powerful. It can replicate functions

Speaker 2 that humans do and it will replace jobs and all the rest, but I don't think it's going to replace human thought. And so it's like, what's the gap there?

Speaker 2 And like between what I'm doing when I'm telling a story and understanding the world around me and what it's doing. And

Speaker 2 he was interested, but he did say it's not good enough to do it yet. So when it's good enough, let's revisit.

Speaker 2 And I'm hoping he just kind of picks up the phone at some point, calls and says, let's do this because it would be,

Speaker 2 I think it could be really useful to

Speaker 2 have someone who doesn't think like it coming at it, trying to analyze what it's doing when it's trying to do what I do when I think.

Speaker 3 Fascinating.

Speaker 3 The book is who is government.

Speaker 3 There's a lot we need to do to figure out how to kind of repair trust, especially in institutions and people.

Speaker 3 I think one good place to start is throw in jail anyone who asks Michael Lewis who should write my biography.

Speaker 3 I think that's a good starting place. Michael Lewis, thank you so much for your time.
It's been great to talk to you.

Speaker 2 John, totally enjoyed it.

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