401(k) From Birth? Inside the “Trump Accounts” With Brad Gerstner

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If money is evil, then that building is held. Show those up!

Detroit and never quite sell, sell!

Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson.
It is December 4th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.

The major indices climbed after ADP jobs data fueled bets on a rate cut next week. Private sector jobs fell the most since 2023 in November.
That data also sent treasury yields falling.

Meanwhile, the dollar had its worst day since September. Bitcoin continued its rebound, reaching a two-week high.
Microsoft also fell 2.5% on reports of lowered AI tool demand.

And finally, Apple fell 1%

after Meta poached its most prominent design executive.

Okay, what else is happening? Amazon just introduced a new chip to the AI Wars, Tranium 3. AWS announced this new chip at its reInvent Developer Conference on Tuesday.

According to the company, Tranium 3 is four times faster than the previous version.

It also has four times greater energy efficiency, and it can train AI models for half the cost of the previous generation.

So here to tell us more about this Tranium 3 chip and also what we learned at Amazon's conference. We're speaking with someone who is at the conference right now.

We're speaking with Patrick Moorhead, CEO and chief analyst of More Insights and Strategy. Patrick, good to see you again.
Yeah, great to see you too. You know, another week, more chip talk.

More chip talk. It never gets old.
And you're there. How is it? How's the conference? It's really big.
And I mean, it seems to take over two or three hotels.

And AWS is in so many things. They're a full stack company.
And so they're basically doing everything.

And there are a lot of people here who are interested to hear what they have to say and how to get involved and how to do comparisons to other tech vendors. Yeah.

So the big news coming out of the conference is this Tranium 3 chip, which is

better, faster, stronger, all of the above. Tell us about the Tranium 3 chip.
Why is this important? Is it important? What does it mean for the chip race?

The simple way to think about Tranium is if you've done, I think we talked about the TPU before from Google.

This is Amazon's version of an ASIC. And like Google, they use GPUs as well.

But when it comes to AWS's very close-knit development network and the software that they run for AI, it's really the standard for that.

And the other fun fact here is that Tranium is the chip that powers Anthropic, who we can debate whether it's OpenAI is number one or number two to anthropic but uh those are the you know uh the the two big platforms you got microsoft with open ai uh you have aws with anthropic and you've got google and now everybody is working with pretty much everybody now because they just need capacity and they want choice right some of the stats we've seen tranium three is four times faster than the previous models uh it can also train models at half of the cost um sounds good

um but i'm almost more interested in how does it compare to other chips? Do we know anything about how Tranium would compare to, say, NVIDIA's blue chip, GPU chip,

or Google's?

How does it compare? Yeah. So again, I'm going to just simplify this

a lot of details that go along with this, but think of NVIDIA Blackwell. If you want the highest raw performance and the broadest software ecosystem, you go with Blackwell, right?

It's expensive hardware, very strong performance per watt, and it's everywhere. It's in every cloud.
Tranium 3 is the best TCO inside AWS for their workloads that you're willing to port to.

And it's not necessarily a raw performance leader. And then you've got Google TPUs, Trillium and Ironwood, cost-efficient, high-performance training inside of GCP,

particularly if you're tied to what's called JAX. That's kind of like the CUDA

equivalent. And then, you know, AMD, right? Competitive to slightly better compute and memory footprint versus Blackwell,

lower levels of vendor lock-in. Software is still catching up.

So one of the things that I keep on seeing online is these benchmarks, trying to measure which one is the best, which is better than the other. And

I can never tell whether to take it seriously because it seems like it's changing all of the time

or whether I should not.

And I'm starting to think that maybe just the best benchmark is just the market. Whoever sells the most is the best.

Is this a impossible game to figure out which one is the best? So the short answer is yes. And

I have served on benchmarking committees before. I was an ex-executive at AMD where we did benchmarks.
And having benchmarks are better than not having benchmarks.

They're only good at a certain point in time, a snapshot. And what matters is the type of workload, right? Is it FP4, FP8?

Is it written in CUDA? Is it JAX?

Is it something different? So there's a lot of variables, but you nailed it, Ed.

The market does speak. And what happens before any of these companies make a giant investment is they go through the architecture, they run their code.
But right now,

because OpenAI and Anthropic are all running on everybody's hardware, right? That shows you their certainty, which is they're uncertain.

And they want to support everything to see in the end, which one has the best total cost of ownership. Okay.
Patrick Moorhead, CEO and chief analyst of More Insights and Strategy.

Patrick, always always good to hear about chips from you. I hope you are enjoying your time at the hotel, at reInvent.
Where is it? It's in Las Vegas, right?

The only city big enough to hold a conference this size. It's kind of my second home, you know, as an analyst, I'm kind of this professional event attender.
That's my

second job.

I love it. I love it.
Good to see you, Patrick. Thank you for joining us.
Thank you.

After the break, a look at the new Trump accounts. If you're enjoying the show, give ProfG Markets a follow.

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We're back with Prof G Markets. The White House has officially launched the long-awaited Trump account program.

The federal government will be granting $1,000 to every child born between 2025 and 2028.

The money will be housed in a tax-deferred account and invested in low-cost index funds, only accessible once the child turns 18.

Additionally, 25 million children under the age of 10 will be eligible for an extra $250,

and that is thanks to a $6 billion donation from Michael Dell and Susan Dell. So for more on this new program, we are speaking with the man who played a crucial part in making it happen.

We're speaking with Brad Gerstner, founder, chairman, and CEO of Altimeter Capital. Brad, good to see you.
Thank you for joining us. Great to see you too.

So I first want to just say congratulations, your idea that you actually came on the podcast and discussed. It's now a reality.

You founded the nonprofit group, Invest America, which was really the force that made this happen.

Let's just start. with that.
How did this all come about?

What does this mean for America? Well, I think it's transformed. First, thanks for having me on, Ed.
It's great to be back. And,

you know, I know how much, you know, you and

Scott, you know, worry about and think about the fact that too many Americans are left out and left behind, not in the game of capitalism.

And when I was on before, I said this will be transformational if we get it done.

You know, this is a platform that literally creates universal private ownership from birth, a 401k from birth, that gets every child, 3.7 million kids born a year, gets every one of those kids into the game.

Now, think about this, Ed. Under the age of 18, that's 65 million kids.
And of those 65 million, 50 million would never own an account that compounds.

And now they will all own an account that compounds that's aligned with the upside of capitalism.

And we know, unless you have a compounding asset in this country, like there's no chance that you can keep up

with the cost of living increases, et cetera. And so I think in that regard, it's a game changer.

How did it come about? Well, you know, I've been working on this idea to first get it passed into law for four years.

And we were working with both sides of the aisle.

You probably saw the letter out today with Corey Booker and Ted Cruz that went out to a thousand chief executives asking them all to contribute money into the accounts

of our kids. And, you know, I've been working with both of those centers and many other people on Capitol Hill across the political spectrum.
And we were prepared.

We tried to get this done with Biden. As I explained to you guys, we didn't make a ton of progress there, even though we had a lot of support.
And we had an opening with this president.

You know, Michael Dell did, who's a good friend, played a key role in brokering the final relationship. He and I went and saw the president,

and the president loved the idea. He made the final call to the speaker that got it included in the reconciliation bill.
That occurred in April of this year.

Now, fortunately, we already had the beach softened in the House and the Senate.

So when the president made the call that he wanted to see it in the reconciliation bill, we had already the draft of the Invest America America Act on the Senate side. We dropped in the language.

So it was pretty easy from there to get it included. And then, of course, the bill passed, which, you know, let's just stop there for a second.

This is a change to our social contract on the order of magnitude of Social Security itself.

The federal government is going to launch the largest consumer project in the history of the federal government, 60 million accounts for every kid under the age of 18.

And so I think it was extraordinary that we were able to get that accomplished in the law is a is a fact to celebrate. But as you know, that was never what this was about.

It wasn't just, you know, getting it passed into law. It was then executing it and making sure that we turned it into a platform for change.
Yeah.

Just to put it out there, I think most people know this, but I think it's an incredible idea. I'm really excited about it.

Just the idea that, you know, so many people are losing their faith in the system. And a lot of that is because they've been left out of the system.
So what are we doing here?

We're automatically buying you into the system by investing you in the stock market, in just low-cost index funds, which we should really all be invested in.

But I want to play devil's advocate and just throw out criticisms that I've been seeing online.

One criticism I've seen is this just makes rich people richer because rich people already own stocks. And so now we're putting more capital into the market.
So they're going to get richer.

I've also seen people say, oh, if everyone gets an investment account, then that's like no one getting an investment account because you're not actually getting ahead.

And then I've also seen another criticism, which is this is billionaires appeasing the president. This is a big, bit, a big concern with this administration.
Michael Dell gives $6 billion

and gets in good with Trump. I just want to hear what you would say to those criticisms.

Yeah, let's first start with this idea of, you know, the rich getting richer somehow, because I think this is the biggest fallacy, Ed.

Listen, the rich already have a lot of money.

Rich kids already have a lot of money. So the fact that they have an account is somewhat irrelevant to those kids, because remember, in this country, we have something called 529 accounts, right?

There's 16.1 million 529 accounts. These are accounts for college savings.
15.8 million of those are owned by people in the top 10% of income.

Okay, they already have all their kids already. My kids have these accounts.

That's how, in fact, the motivation, the story with my kids, how Invest America started was my older son, Lincoln, said, dad, this is great that we have an account, but what about all the kids that don't?

That was really the inspiration that drove this. So those kids are doing fine.
This takes the 50 million kids who would never.

not only as children, but never in their lifetime, have an account that compounded with the stock market and getting them into the game from birth.

So, by definition, they disproportionately benefit because the alternative is zero ed. Right.
Right.

And now, these kids, if they start with a thousand bucks and an employer or mom and dad or a philanthropist adds just $750 a year, that's $50,000 at the age of 18. That's $150,000 at age 30.

And it's $1 million at age 50 or 55 using the 75-year track record of the SP 500. So undisputably, undisputably, this will disproportionately benefit those who have less.

And let's talk about the Dell contribution. A key component of their announcement,

Ed, was that their $6.25 billion is only going to families that live in zip codes where the average income is less than $150,000.

So they're targeting, they're excluding the highest earning zip codes in the country.

And so I think you're going to see a lot of that as people start announcing additions to these programs, the philanthropic contributions, the corporate contributions.

I think a lot of those will be income-based.

And so that will also help to ameliorate that. Secondly, let's talk about this question of billionaires appeasing the president, right? There's no doubt, right?

That I think in all administrations, you have people who are currying favor with administrations, doing things that administrations, you know, might like.

And, you know, when it comes to this president, certainly he's closer to the business community than Biden was.

But I'll tell you, if you look at the people who are, you know, in the White House, it's Democrat and Republican CEOs across the board.

Even if you just look at the day that we announced, you know, had the Invest America roundtable, Dara Kashrashahi, who's been a critic.

And, you know, and I think if you follow his Twitter feed, pretty clear he's on the left of a lot of issues. You know, he was there and he praised this program.

Corey Booker and Mark Warner, lots of people on the left, the Clintons have been big supporters of this idea. And so like, this is a big bipartisan tent.

And so the fact that Michael Dell, who nobody views as a die-hard or super conservative, you know, raging Republican, steps forward and says, listen, I'm going to do this because my foundation has been investing in kids.

And you know, the number one thing they like about it, Ed?

If you want to give away $6 billion,

okay,

and you have to give it away today, how do you do it?

You give it to a charity and then the charity somehow gives it to kids, but how much actually makes it to the kids, Ed?

And how do you track what makes it to the kids? And as entrepreneurs, a lot of people want to give away a lot of money, but they want it to be performance-based.

They want to know that it makes it to the kids. They don't want some charity apparatus in the middle to take half of it.

So for the first time, we have a direct giving platform where these folks can give away billions and billions of dollars at scale. They know it goes directly into the kids' accounts.

Nobody's taking a scrape in the middle, and it's going to compound according to the rules that have been promulgated, which means that the kids can't take their money out, right, until they're 18.

And then at 18, they can only use it, a part of it, to buy a home, start a business, go to school, or it rolls into the IRA retirement rules. And so now we've set up a platform.

I think of it a lot like, you know, iOS. And now these are the applications that are getting built on top of it.
We now have a universal operating system for kids.

It's universal ownership, private accounts from Burry.

Yeah, it certainly seems as though this is perhaps the infrastructure through which the ultra-wealthy can start giving away money back and putting it, investing it back into America.

Michael gave away around 6% of his net worth. I'm waiting for someone to match him.
I'm waiting for someone like a Zuckerberg

to get out there and match him. Do you think that that's going to happen? Are we going to see more mega billionaires or just wealthy people in general contributing to this program?

We know Michael and I are leading the Invest America Giving Council. We're calling everybody who's signed on to the giving pledge.
These are a lot of our friends.

And I can tell you our phones were blowing up yesterday with people who wanted to sponsor states, right?

The state of Texas or California or Indiana or Wisconsin or Ohio to give to all the kids who are born in those states, who wanted to adopt cities, who wanted to follow Michael's lead.

And I see, you're going to see major announcements in this regard. And by the way, those were with people, CEOs, entrepreneurs, and billionaires on both sides of the political aisle.
Yeah. And so

Michael and Susan were bold and entrepreneurial in going first. Yes.
They were going to take the shrapnel to the extent there was any.

And I think now it's made it safe for other wealthy people to follow. But let's not just focus on the ultra wealthy.

We have a a long tail of extraordinary philanthropy in this country, right? And so there are going to be people who adopt their school, right?

It may be, or maybe adopt a grade in their school, say for all the kids in this grade, and they'll work with their school to make sure that they contribute to every one of those accounts.

There are going to be churches who raise money to make sure that all the kids of the church get money added to their accounts, right?

There are going to be moms and dads that just say, all the friends of ours who have kids. I will tell you this, Ed, the number of children that have been born into my life.

I did this with all my nieces and nephews when they were born, but it was hard. I had to set up custodial accounts for them.
Yeah. Right.

This will be the best baby gift or birthday gift or bar mitzvah gift you can possibly give to anybody, right? None of us really have good creative gift ideas.

Now we can just give them $1,000 worth of stocks and, you know, let it grow and compound. And so

I think, yes, the head end of philanthropy is going to be potent. It's going to be great.
I myself am looking at adding to the accounts in the state of Indiana where I'm born.

You know, state of Indiana, there are 87,000 kids born a year. And so I'm talking with the senators, the governor, and others in the state.

How can we add money to the states of every kid born in the state of Indiana?

The state of Texas just announced today they're going to add $1,000 to every account in the state of Texas, all the kids born in the state of Texas.

I'll tell you, I've heard from many states now governors or aspiring governors who want to add to those accounts. So we're going to set off a little competition in the country.
And,

you know, God bless, man this is what this country needs it's going to unify people it's going to get people back in the game there's a reason less than half of people under the age of 40 believe in capitalism ed right it doesn't work for them exactly they're left out they're left behind they don't own anything and if you don't own anything it's hard to get them excited about it so why not burn the system down and say let's start with a new system yes right but you get these you get people into the game You get them winning with America, and they don't have to win at the same level as everybody else.

We're not guaranteeing everybody they're going to be a millionaire, but going from nothing to something,

going from zero and the prospect of zero your whole life to one, that is a far bigger move than going from one to five. I will tell you, this comes from a guy who had zero.
Yeah.

I know what it feels like to be on the outside looking in. I know how it felt to go from nothing to something.
So that is the promise we're going to make to all of America's kids.

We're going to get you from nothing to something.

And then it's on you to get out there, to hustle, to add to the accounts. 100%.

My final question before we let you go here.

Again, you know, I love the idea. They're called Trump accounts.
Yeah. Did we have to call them Trump accounts? I mean, if we want, it seems like that's the easiest way to politicize the thing.

If we want to get everyone on both sides,

can we call them Dell accounts? Can we call them Brad accounts? Well,

I will say this.

You know, it's

when you look at the history in the Senate, we call Roth IRAs Roths after Senator Roth. We call Pell Grants Pell Grants after Senator Pell.

There actually is precedence for this.

I know for some people it's polarizing, but I will tell you, they would not exist without the efforts of this president. And, you know, Roth IRAs would not exist without the efforts of Senator Roth.

And so, you know,

for the time being that he's president, they're going to be called Trump accounts and they may be called Trump accounts forever. But history is ultimately the judge.
Yeah. Right.

And history will call these what history will call them. But I, for one, think due to his efforts,

you know, I look at it. And by the way, I can tell you he's talked to people on both sides of the aisle.

He's out there talking to corporations. He's out there talking to philanthropists.

He really believes in this. He said to me, it's the whole meaning of my presidency to get everybody else in the

Right.

Um, and so I know a lot of people, there are a lot of things people don't like about President Trump or do like about President Trump.

I'm not going, I'm not here to litigate that battle over this piece of legislation.

The Invest America Act is unequivocally good for this country, it's a uniting feature for this country, it's a big bipartisan tent, and I'm grateful for his leadership in helping make it happen.

Well, I think it's really exciting, and I think it's really exciting that Michael Dell is contributing as much as he's contributing.

I really do hope that this continues and creates something of a domino effect. Brad, really good to see you.
Thank you for joining us. Great to see you.
And

I love watching you all the time, man. It's amazing what you

and Scott are out there doing.

Keep it up. And I'll come back and update you guys as this progresses.
Please do. Because I think it's so consistent with the platform and the message you guys are delivering.
100% agree.

Yeah, we really appreciate it. Thank you, Brad.
All right, great to see you.

So the other day, a friend asked me a question.

He said, if Trump did something good,

would you commend him for it on your podcast? Which I think was kind of a dig at me. He's basically saying that I'm biased or that I have Trump derangements into him or something.

but also kind of a fair question because I haven't really praised Trump for pretty much anything. And my response to him was, yes, I would

if he does something good.

If he does something worthy of praise. And to me, he hasn't really done that yet.
But I want to be clear. This policy is good.
This policy is worthy of praise. Now, does Trump deserve the credit?

I don't. think so.
I think he deserves maybe marginal credit. This wasn't his idea.
This wasn't his agenda. I don't think his name should be plastered on the accounts for the reasons I just outlined.

I think the credit is probably owed to Brad, maybe Michael Dell, who is helping to fund this. But the point still stands, these accounts are good.

And the reason they're good is because they begin to address what we believe is the most pressing problem in America, and that is the unprecedented rise in inequality, the rift between what we call the earners versus the owners, what Karl Marx would call the proletariat versus the bourgeoisie.

There are people who make their money through income, through labor, and then there are people who make their money through assets.

And the American system, for whatever reason, is heavily rigged in favor of those who have assets, in favor of those who own things, the owning class. And this is why inequality has run rampant.

And it's why the top 1% own about a third of the nation's wealth today.

It leads to a loss of faith in the system, which eventually leads to some form of civil unrest, which historically leads to mass violence. And this isn't hyperbole.
This is just history.

Now, there are a few ways to fix this. One fix is we could just pay earners more.
We could increase the minimum wage, for example. I would love that.

But for whatever reason, our politics just isn't letting it happen. Another fix would be to tax owners more.
I would also like that.

But again, we've tried this many times and our politics doesn't really let it happen. Or we could simply make everyone an owner.
We could give everyone a stake in this game that we call capitalism.

And that is what this does.

It recognizes the immense wealth creation that is afforded by the stock market, and it automatically buys you in no matter who you are. It makes every American an owner.
And that is a good thing.

Now, will it fix all of the problems? Absolutely not. It will not fix the cost of housing.
It won't fix the cost of college. It won't fix the cost of healthcare.
It won't even level the playing field.

If you're already wealthy, as Brad said, you're still most likely to win the game. But if you're not wealthy, at the very least, you are now in the game.

You start out on the playing field versus what we've had before, where you start out on the sidelines. And that is a marginal improvement in the grand scheme of things, but it is still an improvement.

So this is great policy and a great move from Michael Dell.

And we are grateful to the the billionaire who wants to try to save us.

At the same time, we should recognize that we are living in a timeline where we are essentially waiting on billionaires to save us. And that is not a good timeline.
And I'm not going to pretend it is.

But I'm also not going to pretend that this isn't a step in the right direction. Functionally speaking, these accounts are a good thing for America.

They're a good thing to lessen the problem of inequality in this country. And I will be the first one one to recognize that.

Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Passon, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.

Our associate producer is Alison Weiss, our research team is Dan Shalan, Isabella Kinsell, Chris Nodonah, and Mia Silverio, and our technical director is Drew Burroughs.

Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you like what you heard, give us a follow.
I'm Ed Elson. Tune in tomorrow for our conversation with Paul Krugman.

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And because it's all in Figma, you can use your team's existing design building blocks, making it easy to create outputs that look good, feel real, and represent your brand.

Whether you're a designer, product thinker, or founder, Figma Make helps you go from concept to something real fast. Figma Make, a prompt to code tool for making ideas real.

Try it now at figma.com/slash make.

That's figma.com slash ma k e.