The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

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Welcome to Raging Moderates.

I'm Scott Galloway.

And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

How are you, Josh?

I'm really good.

How are you?

I don't believe you.

And two.

No, it's true.

My algorithm.

doesn't hate me anymore.

I'm like coconut pilled again.

I'm having the best time.

I don't know if Elon just wants to spare me or what, but no, it's genuine.

So I can't tell if this election that I'm now older and wiser in this election really is that consequential and there's real reason to be stressed or I'm just older and stressed over anything.

And I found the only thing that helps is I listen to 80s music that plays over like Peanuts cartoons.

Okay.

That really calms me down, especially the cure.

And all the Peanuts characters dancing.

That brings me a moment of calm.

Also, the Traveling Wilberry, strangely enough, their music seems to calm me.

Okay, in today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing what the campaign trail looked like during the final week, what to watch out for on election night.

And of course, we'll wrap up with our final predictions.

The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa.

Yeah.

And actually, I'm going to let you take this because you're the pollster and you're so much better at this than me.

But explain for the listeners why that is significant and what it is.

Well, I wouldn't say that I'm better at it than you.

And I'm interested in your thoughts because I feel like I spend too much time crosstab diving or whatever it's called.

But Jay Ann Selzer, who is the pollster there in Iowa, is widely considered one of the top pollsters in the country, certainly the top one in Iowa and probably the top one in the country for most people.

And I think there is going to be, depending on the outcome, Tuesday night, there is going to be another reckoning with the polling industry that seems to have been quote unquote hurting all of these polls.

Like no one wants to be an outlier in any way.

So they're just telling us in like 50 different languages, this thing is really tight.

This thing is tied.

Maybe it's one point advantage this way, one point the other way.

And Ann Selzer comes out with her final Iowa poll that has Kamala Harris up three in Iowa.

Iowa, yeah.

In Iowa.

So Donald Trump won Iowa in

2020 by eight points.

So this is a significant swing.

And I think he was up like 18 on Biden before Biden left the race, which is not that surprising because a lot of people felt like Biden should have left the race.

So maybe then you take it down to in actuality, he would be like up eight to 10, something that you would feel is more normal.

But this is a complete earthquake in the polling conversation.

A lot of people want to dismiss it, but most of the pollsters and commentators who know what they're talking about are looking at this as a harbinger of a trend.

So even if Donald Trump wins by five points, let's say she's eight points off on this, that's still a really shitty result for Donald Trump and what he needs in all of this.

And it would be indicative of the fact that Harris should be winning Wisconsin and Michigan and probably Pennsylvania.

And the big underlying story in the poll was the gender gap, which we've been talking about a lot.

Harris up 20 with women, up 28 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are quote unquote independents.

But the thing that was blowing everyone's mind is the granny gap.

So Harris is up two to one with seniors, with female seniors.

And she did a ton of interviews over the weekend.

She was on with Tim Miller on the Bulwark podcast.

And I would really recommend everyone listen to it if you're interested in getting to know her a little bit better and hearing a deeper dive into the methodology.

But she was talking about how Iowa's abortion ban came into effect.

So it was litigated through the courts and it actually was implemented over the summer.

So this is fresh in people's minds.

She said, these older women are not only looking at a world where their daughters and their granddaughters are less free than they were, which frankly pisses anyone off, right?

No matter what the subject is,

you know, abortion, a healthcare issue, or otherwise.

But what was really interesting is this line between

what people think of as abortion, typically pro-life people, and what people think of as health care.

And now that we live in a world where you can have a miscarriage and be denied care for that, people are saying, like, how dare you lump this in with abortion?

And Iowa has this very restrictive ban that came into effect just a few months ago.

And there are other factors that could be playing into this.

Like tariffs have hurt farmers really hard.

It started under Trump and frankly did continue under Biden, the soybean farmers in particular.

And one kind of wild card in this that I was wondering if you thought had any impact is Tim Walls.

Because you would think that Tim Walls would be someone that was very resonant with an Iowa voting base.

And if they thought maybe Kamala was

a San Francisco lefty, that Walls would have felt like a moderating factor in all of this.

But NetNet, my mind is blown.

And what was really interesting for those who want to dismiss it, and I brought it up yesterday.

I was on Fox a couple of times on Sunday.

We did normal programming in the lead up to the election.

There was a poll out that Trump is only up five in Kansas, only up three in Ohio.

And in Nebraska's second congressional district, you know how there's one vote in Nebraska that is separate.

Kamala's up 12.

And I believe Biden only won it by seven or eight.

So that speaks to a regional shift versus just Ann Selzer is out over her skis.

What do you think about all of the things that I said?

So

first off, I think there's more than a kernel, a bushel of truth in everything you believe and that I believe.

The issue is we are absolutely cherry-picking data that makes us feel better about ourselves or better about our views.

It's our show.

That's right.

It's confirmation, confirmation bias gone crazy.

So it wasn't the Iowa poll.

It was that this woman, Ann Selzer, who is from the heartland.

She doesn't live in L.A.

or New York and has this annoying habit of being remarkably correct with her polls.

Arguably the best pollster in the nation.

And she caught Obama's rise and Trump's rise.

Yeah.

And doesn't appear to have a bias, appears to be doing what she's supposed to be doing.

And for Harris to be up three or four in a, that would be like if all of a sudden a poll came out in Florida and showed Harris up by almost outside the margin of error.

And if this in any way is a harbinger of what's going on, it's just exceptionally good news.

And then I look at Holly Market.

Yeah.

I was going to, and I'm still trying to, I'm thinking about doing it today, but I want to make Wednesday morning either really good or really bad for me.

So I am going to wager a significant amount of money for me on Harris.

One, because I do think she's going to win, but two,

supposedly, I know a lot of media is looking at this thing, and I like the idea of giving her a little bit of a bump.

And also, I think I told you this,

she is on a risk-adjusted basis just a great bet right now.

Because if you assume it's a coin flip, right now the odds are 39.6%

likelihood that she wins.

Meaning to get a million dollars back, you have to bet $396,000.

Now, if I'd had...

bigger balls last week and I'd done this last week when I said I was going to do it, I would have only needed to wager $333,000 and I would have got three to one.

I would have got a million bucks back.

Now, her odds have dramatically increased on Polymarket, which I think has an underlying bias because the people who are likely going to go on an online gambling site are younger and more male, i.e., more Trump.

But the fact that even these sites are seeing momentum with her, Iowa is big.

And the thing that

we talked about, Tony Hinchcliffe, the thing you mentioned, I heard that we have 300,000 people in swing states doing what I love the term used, souls to polls, helping people get to the ballot box, and that they have somewhere between 30 and 50,000.

So we're running somewhere between

6 and 10 to 1 in terms of actual ground game in these swing states.

And then, and I mentioned this last time, my friend Whitney Tilson says all of his friends on the ground are saying that the Latino vote is more energized.

The thing you haven't mentioned that I think is going to play a role

is in not one, not even two, but three of the most recent Trump appearances.

It feels as if in the last three months he has aged 10 years.

The last one I saw of him, he had that.

When I saw, remember when Joe Biden popped up to do the stupid garbage comment?

First off,

oh, wait, I forgot.

Joe's still here.

And he, it was if he was sending a video to his grandkids as he was going into hospice.

I'm like, Jesus Christ, this guy's dying.

We made the right decision.

Oh, Oh, unfortunately, we made it six months too late in my view.

But anyways, or maybe six months too late.

But Trump in that last rally, he looked adled.

He looked weak.

He's getting that weak breath, weak voice.

Maybe he's just exhausted.

I don't know.

It doesn't matter.

But he has always presented himself as much more robust.

Fairly, he comes across as more robust, says Biden.

But the last few times I've seen him speak, America has basically said,

we'll take obnoxious, we'll take offensive, we'll take whatever it is,

someone whose policies we won't agree with on the Biden side.

What we will not tolerate is old and weak.

That's it.

That's what kicked Biden out of the race.

Came across as old and weak.

It feels like the momentum

huge through the debate.

and the momentum flipped back to Trump dramatically over the ensuing three weeks.

And I would argue in the last

96 hours, maybe the last five days, it feels like the momentum has swung back substantially towards Harris.

And I can't tell if the only people I know knocking on doors are Harris people reporting back positive news that I want to hear,

and that my algorithm is just serving me the shit I want to see.

I went on diary of a CEO with Stephen Bartlett, who's the biggest podcaster in the UK and just this incredibly impressive young man to talk about the election.

And the comments, it was just 10 to 1 people railing against me.

You know, the same comments they give to us.

These people are not moderates.

The last week has been all Kamala.

Also, even did you see the SNL sketch?

Yeah, I thought she was so charming and funny.

And kudos to them.

Kudos to the writers who figured.

I mean, these people naturally aren't that funny themselves.

Some of them are.

I thought actually Obama had decent instincts around humor.

But the writers, I get, you get the sense,

spoiler alert, that SNL writers are probably pretty progressive and that they sat down and they said, all right, this shit is serious.

We have got to make our likable intelligent and it's got to be funny, yet poignant.

And they just nailed it.

I mean, they just nailed it.

She came across as likable, funny, poking fun at herself, but not enough while depositioning Trump and Keep Kamala and carry on a lot.

I mean, it just.

Give me your Pamala.

Oh my gosh.

That was, it was, it was wonderful.

I keep hearing about the ground game.

Every time I see him, I think, wow, he looks older and older and older.

Yeah, I think the SNL moment was definitely worth the FCC violation.

So NBC had to give Trump, I think, like a minute and a half commercial during a car race yesterday or something like that.

I don't think they care.

Okay, let's take a quick break.

Stay with us.

Hello, Daisy speaking.

Hello, Daisy.

This is Phoebe Judge from the IRS.

Oh, bless, that does sound serious.

I wouldn't want to end up in any sort of trouble.

This September on Criminal, we've been thinking a lot about scams.

Over the next couple of weeks, we're releasing episodes about a surprising way to stop scammers.

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Welcome back.

We, of course,

had a great guest because I believe you know him or friends with him.

We had Charlemagne the God on.

Let's hear a quick clip from that appearance with Charlemagne the God.

Like, you know how many people I run into every day who literally have not heard

95% of the crazy rhetoric that has come out of Trump's mouth or come out of people in his camp's mouth.

And so it's like, you should keep putting that in people's face to let folks know what he's saying, what he's planning to do.

And you should keep drilling home your message.

Your plan for the economy, like, you know, especially her, because she's only been running for

100 days.

So to find the rest of that interview, type in Raging Moderates, wherever you get your podcast, and hit follow.

We have more election coverage coming out, so please subscribe so you don't miss an episode.

All right, enough of the MidPod ad, Jess.

Let's get on with the show.

So both campaigns have been crisscrossing across battleground states.

We had Harris wrapping up her message on the ellipse and appearing on SNL.

Biden making a gaff that Republicans jumped all over.

Trump dressing up on Halloween as a garbage truck driver, and RFK Jr.

declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw again as yet another unforced error.

What other moments are are there any other moments than these that stand out to you?

And And do any of these moments, do you think, make a difference?

I mean, those were the big ones.

Obviously, if you don't want to get into the minutiae of the specific things that he said at a rally, you know, the Yana Santa Tacumpo lines, I do think that the prominent role of RFK in health and safety is something that low-key matters a lot to people.

And I think that

because they are the island of the misfit toys, which I know is how you describe your business as well.

My staff, not my business, my staff.

Oh, your staff.

Yeah, yeah.

Well, I don't see them in that way, by the way.

They seem

to be a little bit more.

It's like the functional families.

The

functional families, you know, are the dysfunctional ones.

I always say in our reviews,

this person isn't doing this well.

And I'm like, if they could do this well, they'd be working at Google, not for you here at this Joey Bagadonitz podcast.

Anyways, love my staff.

Love my staff.

Go ahead.

So, because you have this

wild cast of characters and you can't get a lot of the people that you would want to be out there, you end up with a showcase that has Dana White, Hulk Hogan, RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, et cetera.

And I think for a certain piece of the base, that's really resonant.

But RFK Jr.

for a normal person

is really like anathema.

You know, because he's not even representing a departure from the Democratic Party that I think is resonant with a lot of people, the reasons that it happened, for instance,

because he holds these kinds of beliefs about health because of what a terrible person he has been morally himself in terms of what he put his wife, former wife through, and ended up resulting in her suicide, and just the weird stuff, right?

Like having a whale head strapped to the top of his station wagon and dead bear cubs in Central Park, et cetera.

And

I think think that,

you know, Trump this time around can't say, I'll be surrounded by great people because 40 out of 44 cabinet secretaries have said that they're not for Trump anymore.

So then you think, okay, well, maybe there's this other layer of like not the worst people in the world, but kind of okay people that might go into the administration.

And listen, people love a fancy title.

I'm sure he will be able to get some good people from the business community to go work for him, people who have served the country and feel that this is their patriotic duty.

But

RFK Jr.'s views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream.

I mean, did you see the latest one that he wants to remove fluoride from the water?

Drinking water says it causes cancer.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Not only does it, does water turn frogs trans or something like that.

Now we want to get fluoride out of our water.

And Tim Scott was being interviewed, the senator from South Carolina, and he was asked about this.

And he tried to do the usual dance of, like, oh, you know, I don't know, I don't know what you're talking about, blah, blah, blah.

And it turns out that he co-sponsored a bill to make sure that there was fluoride and water in underserved communities in 2018.

Because guess what?

Fluoride is really important.

You know, I take a two and a half-year-old to the dentist.

They start talking to you about fluoride at one,

right?

And

I think that it will really hurt Trump's candidacy to have that be someone that we can identify as a harbinger of quote-unquote professionalism that he would have in there.

And then to add to it, that he would also be in charge of women's health, which is frightening to have someone who's so, first of all, disrespectful towards women anyway, but this weird pro-life Democrat sometimes, he used to be pro-choice.

I guess he says that he's pro-life now, but someone who has never taken any interest in this issue whatsoever or moderated the party on it since he switched over.

I thought that was another tactical error.

I thought that you should have said we're going to put him on something around the environment.

Well, he's actually.

Actually, yes, he believes in climate change.

He has some good, yeah.

He's good around the environment.

It would have softened his position.

I forget who was the

who was the guest when you and I were panelists on Bel Maher together, which is how we met,

how I fell in love with Jess Tarla.

Who was our guest?

Who was the third person or the person?

It was Cuomo and Melissa DeRosa.

Oh, and then you bailed.

For the interview.

It was when Marr, it's still only two people.

It was like post-COVID.

So it was only I was.

Yeah, but it's still only two.

That was easily like the most impossible.

I had to sit around and talk about post-COVID with the guy who with Cuomo as he started his apology tour.

That was the most uncomfortable TV I think I've ever.

And you got to bail because whatever Fox doesn't want it on CNN.

Anyway, it's Melissa DeRosa who was who worked for Cuomo as the other person.

Yeah, who worked for him.

I didn't understand the whole thing.

Anyway, we were promoting a book.

It was a thing.

Yeah.

And I said, well, anyways, but I met RFK Jr.

backstage.

He's very handsome.

He's very charming.

He's very likable.

And he started texting, can I come on your pod?

And I thought, well, yeah, sure, why not?

And I checked with the team and the team was a resounding no.

We're not going to platform this guy.

And I think they made that, you know, my island here is the wisdom of crowds.

It's always good for me to check in because occasionally, or actually quite frequently, they get it right and I get it wrong.

And he seems like he's just gotten crazier.

And the interesting thing, the reason I bring it up is that he was the guest.

He did the long-form interview up front.

And I thought Bill Maher tried to be as kind as possible, but asked hard questions and tore him limb from limb, just made him look like an idiot, in my opinion, just pointed out inconsistencies left and right.

And then RFK Jr., you know, he's supposed to come out for the conversation afterwards.

He didn't come out.

He refused to come out.

Really?

So, yeah.

Oh, I didn't know that.

Yeah, he didn't come out.

He was supposed to come out.

And I was like, he's a baby on top of that.

Well, his comms person.

And what's interesting is just a couple of days ago, I got a text message from his comms person saying, we need to speak.

And I'm like, I immediately texted back, what's up?

And I haven't heard back from him, but I can't imagine.

I have no idea what they want from me.

Anyways, this is, again,

another,

another absolutely

unforced

error.

So

they're pivoting through the swing states here.

Do you think there's anything if you're advising them?

I mean, this is pretty much it.

This is go time, right?

Yeah.

I mean, it's election day.

If you are advising either the candidates anything they should do tomorrow to put a cherry on the top, or is it kind of like the ball is out of their hands?

I mean, I think for Trump, he is facing, as you said, a rally scene that is not tip-top.

You know, it's emptier.

People are less engaged, and he, he is descending a bit.

And if he can muster a few lines of unity or even recentering around

his economic message, I mean, that has been the big problem here.

She has totally matched him in terms of who's best to handle the economy because he won't talk about anything normal, right?

He's advertising on anti-trans issues and he's giving no specifics on his economic plan anyway when he does talk about it.

So I would say to to him, if you could do all of your rallies and really be talking about the economy, that would be best for you.

For Kamala, you know, she can only do with what has been working for her, staying on message.

And I did love that line that she had to Charlemagne when she did the town hall with him,

where he said, you know, there are people.

who say you're relentlessly on message.

You stick to your script.

You, you can't weave it all or whatever.

And she said, I say you're welcome.

That's my response to you.

You know, you want somebody that understands why they're there they're there to help the american people these are the ways that i'm going to do it so i want her to stick to that message but i do love when she

first of all like genuinely asks people for their vote i have found it to be one of her more compelling sides where she says i'm taking nothing for granted and i'm here asking for your vote and i want more as many of those human moments as possible in the last few hours of all of this where she says i know that we are building a coalition of people who are strange bedfellows.

You know, that we have these Republicans like you have Liz Cheney and AOC backing the same ticket.

That's rare.

And that she will be a president for all Americans and that her cabinet will reflect that and that she is not too prideful

to change the way that she thinks about things and to take advice from people that she wouldn't typically do so.

And I want to hear that kind of stuff because I think people are looking for the reassurance that if they've gone out on a limb, like if you are a Republican in Iowa that is going to end up with a Kamala Harris presidency, you have gone out on a limb to do that.

And she really needs to continue talking about how she's going to meet them in the middle and respects what they've done.

Before we break, just a quick review of the most recent New York Times Santa College poll.

In Nevada, the poll, or the New York Times Santa poll has Harris up by three.

In North Carolina, Harris up by two.

Wisconsin, Harris up by two.

Georgia, Harris up by one.

Pennsylvania tied.

Michigan tied, Arizona, Trump up by four.

The way I read this, and maybe I don't have the math correctly, but then doesn't it all come down to Pennsylvania?

I guess if...

Yeah, I think it always.

Always, but she has more.

I mean, what they're emphasizing is she has more paths than he does.

Like the Sunbelt is still in play for her, and he needs Pennsylvania, but it has to go through the Georgia, North Carolina path.

And he's having to spend way more time in North Carolina than he would have hoped.

My takeaway from the New York Times Sienna poll, what I was excited to see back to normal levels of Democratic support with black voters and Latino voters and, you know, the gender gap there.

I think it was the gender gap they were saying was the least in Pennsylvania, which surprised me.

We'll see how it all bears out.

But, you know, I'm still concerned about minority support for the Democratic candidate.

And one other thing that popped up during the week, I don't know if you caught this, Gallup released a survey around enthusiasm.

And Democrats are right now more enthusiastic than they were in 2008 with Obama and 10 points more enthusiastic than Republicans.

Have you been feeling that?

It honestly surprised me.

It's so hard because I live in London and I'm in a bit of a bubble around my social media algorithm.

And the people I talk to are so,

I shouldn't say everyone.

I have a lot of friends in LA.

A lot of my Jewish friends are very, I don't want to say pro-Trump, but squarely Trump.

And

there's just no getting around it, though.

I'm getting emails with like, check out this data.

Everyone's sort of, people are feeling almost a little bit, the way I would describe it, is bereft about a week and a half, two weeks ago.

And people are starting to get their mojo back.

Okay, let's take a quick break.

stay with us.

Welcome back.

Let's switch gears to the battleground states.

Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina might get called fairly quickly, but we could be waiting for a while for Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, especially if it's a close race.

Jess, this gets a little bit to predictions.

Do you think there's any potential surprises here?

Obviously, Iowa would be a big effing surprise.

Is there any

my gut is one way or or the other.

We're going to have two or three states pop up on the screen with Steve Kornacki or Bill Hemmer, who, by the way, is a lovely guy.

I met him in the Hamptons.

He's a very nice man.

Very handsome.

He's a big Sag Harbor guy.

Very, very handsome.

I mean, I hope HR is not listening.

I didn't mean it that way, but he's a handsome.

You know what?

It's okay if you objectify.

What I've learned, let me give you a little tip.

As someone who is an HR nightmare, it's okay to objectify people as long as you objectify men.

Then it's okay.

Anyways,

I've heard that.

Bill Hammer is a tall drink of lemonade.

So

what states do you think might be surprises here one way or the other?

Obviously, there's Iowa.

That would be a shocker.

Any surprise, any states that are traditionally or Harris thinks she has in the bag that could potentially pop up Trump?

I don't think so.

You know, obviously, if North Carolina, Georgia are going in Harris's direction, then we know it's a big night in her favor.

Trump really needs to hold those.

What I'm still curious about is that inefficient vote.

If he's running up the tally

in New York and Florida, I mean, we actually haven't talked about Florida a lot.

If Harris is performing well in Florida, that will also be a harbinger of something to come.

And obviously they have a huge Latino and Puerto Rican specifically population there.

But if Trump is banking votes, in New York, Florida, California, these places he's been going.

I mean, he was in New Mexico.

All of this is so bizarre if you're actually being strategic about it.

And I get it.

It's fun to win the popular vote.

Republicans should try it sometime.

I think they've only done it once in the last eight elections.

But

that will be, it'll A, be interesting if it ends up that Republicans somehow win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.

But it will be a very poor reflection on the electoral strategy that Susie Wiles, who's very, supposedly very, very good at her job, has taken with all of this.

And I get that he's hard to control and he wants a rally at MSG and he wants to go to Coachella.

But that's something that I'll be looking for.

And also his effect down ballot, because New York should decide control of the House.

And we talked about those close congressional races last week on the podcast.

You know, Trump is not a lift for most of these people that are in these tight races.

So inefficient vote is what is fascinating me currently.

One thing that's clear, this race is expected to be the most contested in history.

Trump is already toying with the public's trust in the results.

Both campaigns have teams of lawyers prepped and ready to go.

Lawsuits have been filed for weeks now, and we could be seeing legal fights over results for months if the margins are thin.

There are even zombie lawsuits, cases that Trump could bring back if there's a chance they might shift the vote.

What do you make of all these legal challenges, Jess?

Have you spoken to many of these lawyers?

How do you see them unfolding?

Does one side have an edge over the other?

Well, the Democrats have the edge and the Republicans even openly talk about that.

Mark Elias, who is our top elections lawyer, and you can see him, he goes on MSNBC pretty regularly, is a big target.

And the Republicans just talk about him.

They're like, we didn't have a Mark Elias in 2020.

And I don't think they have one guy, but they certainly have a better operation this time around.

But they're throwing everything they can at the wall and seeing what sticks.

I mean, part of the problem is the way that what they are perceiving or what they are frankly lying about as

being

unfair election practices are getting amplified on social media.

And either if they are getting community noted or not,

it's not making a difference to people.

And they're running with this argument.

Like there was this whole thing about that a bunch of ballots were just getting dropped off by this random person outside the door.

I think it was in Allegheny County in Pennsylvania.

And it turns out that it was a postmaster that was doing his job, or they went after Bucks County because they were saying it was election interference, that there were long lines.

No, baby, sometimes there's just long lines, right?

Like a lot of people showed up to vote and they were understaffed.

And in Georgia, they had to come into the courtroom to defend this.

There were more boxes for dropping off mail ballots.

You can mail your ballot in or you could put it in a drop box, which a lot of people like to do.

Like my sister in California, that's how they vote, that they go and drop off their mail ballot in person.

And there were, I think, four new drop boxes that were added.

And the Republicans were saying that it was illegal.

And they were brought in front of the judge.

I think it was like 8 a.m.

on Saturday morning.

The judge was like, what are you talking about?

Like, everything has, and I'm not saying that it's impossible that there's some minor fraud somewhere, but the theme is always that Republicans want less people to be able to vote.

And they hide behind this facade of election integrity.

But we know that election integrity in 2020 looked like calling up Brad Raffensperger and threatening him, you know, trying to stop the count in Arizona and continue the count in Pennsylvania.

And it's really so disheartening.

And I've been reading a lot of articles about former Trumpers and what turned them off.

And an interesting one, actually, or part of it has been that he went too left on abortion, which I never expected to see.

I would think, you know, getting rid of Roe v.

Wade would have been this huge miracle, but they feel that he's too left on it.

But a lot of it is about this disrespect for the electoral process and not being able to take a W.

It's more than a disrespect for the electoral process.

It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country.

A country is a series of structures, protocols, legal entities that create an infrastructure that can impose taxes, uphold laws, prosecute, defend those laws, and set up an operating system.

In this instance, 50 different operating systems, 50 different protocols to try and create a diversity around the process to maintain election integrity such that no one system can be hacked.

And

when Governor DeSantis spends $3 million for quote-unquote election integrity, that is so cynical.

There's no reason that Florida needs to spend $3 million on what are like 60 contested votes.

And I have a close friend who I went to college with who I would describe as a reasonable, intelligent guy.

And his entire Instagram reels the last few days has been what to do if you're worried about your vote being counted.

And he's a pretty hardcore Trumper.

And I called him and I said, You realize you're inciting violence.

He said, What do you mean by that?

And I said, Look, there's absolutely no evidence that there's anything more than 0.0001%

of election fraud.

Both Republicans and Democratic commissioners have done a great job having fidelity for the Constitution and their responsibility.

There are few processes that involve humans that have had the same integrity as our elections.

And basically, the last time we had kind of a split decision, a Republican or a conservative Supreme Court justice said, okay,

Bush is the president.

And then

in what has become a very unusual move, Vice President Gore conceded the election, recognizing he didn't want to have violence and he didn't want to have a revolution.

And all of this,

we don't trust the CDC.

We don't trust the American Pediatric Association.

We don't trust

the Secret Service when our guy gets shot at.

We don't trust any of these institutions.

The Fed, Jesus Christ, the Fed has put on a fucking masterclass here.

But this notion that you can't trust institutions, you need to trust your emotions and your feelings and what you get on a social media feed that is purposely there to take you further to the left, further to the right, and enrage you.

So it's more than just a lack of trust in elections, but this, I mean, you just see, it's just so naked.

If we win, it's democracy at work.

And if we lose its election fraud and our institutions, and you can already see on these

ridiculous social media feeds somehow laying the groundwork for cases.

You know, someone burned a ballot box.

Okay, I believe that.

What on earth does that have to do with a conspiracy around election fraud?

Someone lit a ballot box on fire.

Okay, you win.

Is there any evidence that that ballot box had more votes for Harris than for Trump?

It's just, it's so,

I mean,

it's what the head of propaganda for the Kremlin said back in the days of

Gorbachev, that this is how we win.

We just flood the zone with misinformation.

We make no one trust institutions, which is Latin for no one trusts America anymore.

And we just overwhelm them with information left and right and just confuse the shit out of them.

And they no longer believe in their government or in their country.

But it is this lack of respect for our institutions, especially, I think it went crazy in COVID.

I think people were kind of mentally unwell and were so upset about what was going on, didn't know what to trust and said, oh, we can't trust the CDC.

And when the American Pediatric Association says there is no correlation between these vaccines that we can see and myocardia in teenage boys or enlarged hearts, no one wants to believe them because they know somebody whose kid had an arrhythmia.

Okay, fine, but

that doesn't mean there's a there there.

So I find all of this very

dangerous.

It's just another example of there really is a double standard here.

You can tell it's going to be, I mean, Carrie Lake sort of embodies this, right?

That, and Arizona voters,

I just can't get over the fact that they decided to put her up.

That is going to be my ointment.

That is, if, if things go wrong for us tomorrow, I'm just going to, I'm just going to watch the numbers come in over and over on the Gallegos Lake Senate contest because my understanding is things are probably going to go

Representative Gallegos way.

Kamala may not win Arizona.

Ruben Gallego is going to win.

Split ticket, right?

Yeah, that's probably going to be.

I mean, people, yeah, people are doing it.

But hopefully she can pull it out.

Arizona looks tough, though, for Kamala right now.

And what do you think?

Do you think there's any chance that the Supreme Court, if something ends up in the Supreme Court, that they'll impact the election?

I mean, I don't want to say no, because the Supreme Court has been quite activist and activist in Trump's direction.

Pretty sure that all of them don't want to have anything to do with this.

and that they'll try to keep it in lower courts as much as possible.

But again, like it has has to be very

normal polling errors could lead to huge wins on either side of this.

And I continue,

if I was a praying gal,

I would pray for a decisive win, most of all.

And Trump actually this weekend, for the first time, acknowledged that he could lose.

Like he said something like, yeah, I got, you know, we could lose.

We shouldn't lose, you know, but it could happen.

And there was a report, I think, in Axios that Susie Wiles had put out a memo to the campaign that said,

you know, we're optimistic, but no matter what happens, blah, blah, you know, blah, blah, blah.

And that's a bit of a different tone from the usual Trump triumphalism.

And I'm sure they still think that they're going to win.

And again, it may happen.

But even having a little glimpse into the fact that there is some understanding that it might not be a a Trump victory is

a tiny bit heartening for me at this moment.

Okay, Jess,

this is it.

It's go time.

Your prediction and any nuance or any wrinkle around your prediction.

Nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins.

One thing that I had been actually feeling a little bit better about is there was some good polling for our friend John Tester in Montana.

And that story about Ryan Sheehee, his opponent, opponent, who lied about

getting shot in Afghanistan, who ended up who did the shooting.

It was in a parking lot in a national park.

Um, that that story has actually been breaking through to people.

And I think that there's a lot of folks out there, especially in the age of Trump, that are looking for good people to put in office, that they feel that there's some baseline level of okay that they're going to be if you have ethical and morally sound folks in office.

And John Tester is that.

And so I'm a little bit more hopeful about that.

Still feel that the Republicans are going to control the Senate.

But was excited to see that.

And I think the Democrats are going to take the House back.

What about you?

Yeah, I agree with you, both the Senate and the House.

The markets are predicting that regardless of who wins, it doesn't matter, that it'll be a split government and that the populace and the media are overestimating the impact one way or the other.

And essentially, that's what the market is saying: is that

no one individual is going to have that much power to get much done over the other.

Why wouldn't that be fun?

Because it'll be a split government.

My prediction is it's going to be

actually a decisive win for Harris.

All of the things I've seen breaking our way,

the poll from Seltzer absolutely blew my mind.

All All of these self-inflicted wounds.

You mentioned the story about Tester.

It just feels like all the atmospherics indicate whether it's on the ground reporting back from canvassing, whether it's the amount of money, the 10 to 1 people on the ground trying to turn out the vote.

And again, I just might be in a bubble where I not only have a social media algorithm, but I have a friend algorithm, and people are only sending me things that are going to make me feel better.

But I was pretty honest, I think, with myself in the two weeks leading up to the last four days.

Seven days ago, I was pretty convinced that the edge was distinctly Trump.

And then these videos of him, which have been going around showing that he's just old, even little stupid things like him trying to open a door and having a tough time.

I feel like

I feel like he's aged 10 years in the last three weeks.

Even this is this polymarket thing.

I'm becoming addicted.

I'm like a kid trading crypto.

In just the time we've been on this pod,

Jess, the likelihood, according to Polymarket, that Harris will win the presidency has gone from a low of 38.6% to a high of 43.2, and now it's back to 42.3.

I mean, the market is just so volatile around this stuff.

You can just feel

the tension.

But every piece of media I'm seeing points to more people turning out.

And then I think this race will be remembered for a couple of things.

One, if Harris loses, I think Biden is going to have some splaming to do, so to speak.

I think people are just going to be furious at the Democratic Party and Biden and the people around him for not getting him to drop out sooner.

That how on earth did we not run away with this?

And

I do think that if he loses, the things they're going to remember here is that this was the podcast election.

I think her going on Caller Daddy and him going on Rogan were more kind of seminal in terms of identifying this new medium.

And also, I think this is,

you know, I hate it when people say, oh, this is the election of women or whatever.

But having raised boys, I just see the way we had a Halloween party for my son.

The party was supposed to be at 9 p.m.

And the girls show up on time.

They help clean up.

Their costumes were perfect.

They're just more organized.

And I think you're just going to see, I think women have a big issue here and they're organized.

I just think women are going to show up because, especially if you look at the demographics here, I think demographics are destiny.

There's 12 million fewer people on the voter rolls because they've died since 2016.

There's 20 million new voters.

And the 12 million that have died generally are older, whiter, and more Republican.

And the new voters, the 20 million new voters, are generally younger, more non-white, and I would, I believe, more

progressive.

And I think you're going to see that women showed up here and were just more organized across every age group.

And that leans Harris.

So I'm predicting, I believe this is going to be Harris and

it's going to be decisive.

I love it.

I agree with you about the women showing up.

And I do hope that a consequence of this, though, is not...

kind of browbeating men about the victory, but figuring out a better way forward to have a more balanced party where everyone feels included because young men have basically the same political beliefs as young women.

They're just not being spoken to in a way that is resonant.

And that's on us.

I love that.

That's where we're going to leave it.

All right.

That's all for this episode.

Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.

Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.

Our technical director is Drew Burroughs.

You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.

That's right.

Raging Moderates is on its own feed.

What a thrill.

Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts or I'm sending an incredibly intelligent person who is almost six feet tall.

And by the way, her husband's even bigger.

Don't mess with the Tarlovs.

Jess, stay safe.

Large people.

Enjoy your evening on Fox.

Watch Cure videos or REM or Tom Petty if things get really scary.

I promise it'll calm you down.

Happy voting.

Happy voting, where this will still be America.

All right, Jess.

Probably.

Probably.

America-ish.