Michael Weiss: Helsinki in Anchorage?

Speaker 2 We, the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

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Speaker 20 Hello, and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast.

Speaker 12 I'm your host, Tim Miller.

Speaker 40 Before we get to the guests today, I just have a couple things.

Speaker 41 I just finished popping off a quick take on some pretty alarming PPI numbers with regards to inflation that came out this morning.

Speaker 9 And we also have some stories about the new Commissioner of Labor Statistics, the weird Mortician man, having a Nazi ship fetish.

Speaker 45 That's a shocker.

Speaker 9 And being there on January 6th.

Speaker 28 So I talked about that with Bill Crystal over on the Bulwark Takes feed.

Speaker 31 Make sure you go check that out and check out the other stuff that we've been popping out over on Bulwark Takes when there's rapid response news that we want to get to you.

Speaker 48 I also just want to say, I was blown away by the overwhelmingly positive feedback to yesterday's podcast.

Speaker 3 So I wanted to share a few of the rave reviews with you. Gina,

Speaker 41 well, that one stuck with me.

Speaker 6 In fact, it made me wake up in the middle of the night.

Speaker 40 Socks dogs.

Speaker 41 It just made me want to go as far left as possible.

Speaker 12 Chris Nowak, listening to Jason Callacanis will awaken your inner Lenin, whether you think you have one or not.

Speaker 41 Pete Rabbit, your last episode turned me into a full communist.

Speaker 41 So,

Speaker 41 you know, not exactly aligned with the pods stated mission there, but at least we're having an influence on you. Always appreciate your feedback.

Speaker 49 We'll see how today's podcast goes. He's the editor of The Insider, a Russia-focused independent media outlet and a contributing editor at New Lines Magazine.

Speaker 45 He's the author of ISIS, Inside the Army of Terror, Terror and a forthcoming book about the GRU, Russia's Intel Agency.

Speaker 28 It's Michael Weiss.

Speaker 8 Hey, man, what's happening?

Speaker 51 Welcome to my life in Portugal, where I have emigrated for the month of August.

Speaker 14 Is it maybe potentially permanent?

Speaker 41 Are you testing that out?

Speaker 10 You know?

Speaker 37 Tempting, but not really possible.

Speaker 54 Too many commitments back home.

Speaker 5 All right. Well,

Speaker 48 as of right now, your home in America has not been militarized.

Speaker 46 Not the same for listeners in Washington, D.C. And so so I want to obviously talk mostly about the Alaska Summit or the Russia Summit, whichever way you want to look at that.

Speaker 46 But just really quick on what's happening in D.C., there are images of checkpoints on 14th Street last night, people shouting at the military this morning, military vehicles on, you know, monitoring the people jogging on the mall, which is very high crime area, you know, the National Mall at nine in the morning.

Speaker 30 What are you hearing from folks?

Speaker 9 Like, what's your sense of alarm?

Speaker 45 as far as parallels to other countries, or you're hearing from your European friends over there in Portugal.

Speaker 46 What's your sense of the the state of play with that?

Speaker 65 I mean, I think a lot of people's expectations have been reset over not only the first eight months or whatever, this administration's second term, but the last decade, seeing the United States opt for a guy like Trump and then opt for him again in spite of his attempt to foment an insurrection and the overthrow of a government that he led, including hanging his then vice president.

Speaker 70 I mean, this is very

Speaker 62 par for the course for Europeans who have a history of.

Speaker 23 I mean, I was in Spain in June where there was a pretty vicious fratricidal war fought in the 1930s.

Speaker 65 There's a Plaza de Orwell in Barcelona, which is the only like touristy thing I did when I was there because he famously fought on the side of an anarchist brigade defending the Republic.

Speaker 73 Europe

Speaker 75 is very accustomed to the rise of populist dictators and obviously, you know, world war and

Speaker 8 things like that.

Speaker 61 But there was always this kind of prevailing assumption that that wouldn't happen in the U.S.

Speaker 77 You know, I used to be quite

Speaker 72 kind of pissy about Europeans who would say, well, you know, what's to choose in America, Democrat, Republican?

Speaker 71 It's two sides of the same coin of reaction.

Speaker 82 And I said, yeah, but we don't have communism and fascism like you guys do.

Speaker 62 That sort of mind-numbing centrism or that kind of

Speaker 65 political equilibrium has served us pretty well, certainly since World War II.

Speaker 86 And now, obviously, that's no longer true.

Speaker 66 So, I mean, I don't know.

Speaker 87 I'm not in D.C.

Speaker 88 I'm not walking the streets, you know, with

Speaker 83 the National Guard on the hill or whatever.

Speaker 35 But

Speaker 58 for me, it's kind of strange because I feel a little bit desensitized to it in a bad way.

Speaker 90 You know, you forget

Speaker 78 that he also sent U.S.

Speaker 62 military into Los Angeles, you know, a few weeks ago.

Speaker 91 It's like, wait, what?

Speaker 8 Oh, that happened, right?

Speaker 51 And now we're redeploying to Washington.

Speaker 72 So what's next? I don't know.

Speaker 92 I mean, you know, he seems to be keen on interfering in the New York mayoral race.

Speaker 65 And maybe if that doesn't go the way he wants, if Momdani becomes mayor,

Speaker 51 he's going to do something similar in Manhattan.

Speaker 42 And I mean, Tom Homan was saying yesterday, they seem to be indicating, like, the D.C.

Speaker 46 situation is in some ways unique because he can do this legally for 30 days, but they're already kind of indicating that that might want to go on on longer.

Speaker 56 There has been a small, I guess, individual act of resistance.

Speaker 46 You know, you never know what individual act of resistance will resonate.

Speaker 95 You know, who threw the first brick at Stonewall, for example.

Speaker 13 This was a man that threw a sandwich, threw a Subway sandwich at ice.

Speaker 21 For the YouTubers, I'm going to put the video of this

Speaker 47 too. It's too funny.

Speaker 71 The ICE guy he threw the sandwich at probably worked at Subway, not like three hours ago.

Speaker 64 I actually went on the website to see like what the requirements are for applying because I saw the South Park of it.

Speaker 65 And you assume that parody is always kind of a hyper-reality or an exaggeration.

Speaker 57 There's no exaggeration.

Speaker 8 I mean,

Speaker 37 no college degree, no high school diploma. Come on in.

Speaker 57 The water's fine.

Speaker 48 I mean, I debated a former actor,

Speaker 46 a low, former low-level Superman actor who's 59 years old, who's joined ICE.

Speaker 37 So I think that's that Dean Kane.

Speaker 96 Yeah.

Speaker 55 That was Dean Kane.

Speaker 75 Me and Dean went at it.

Speaker 40 I want to play just for you.

Speaker 22 I'm just trying to to sensitize you.

Speaker 30 I was trying to sensitize you.

Speaker 27 This is the United States Attorney from Washington, D.C.

Speaker 42 talking about the sandwich incident.

Speaker 101 And the president's message to the criminals was, if you spit, we hit.

Speaker 101 Well, we didn't quite do that the other night when an individual went up to one of the federal law enforcement officers and started jumping up and down, screaming at him, berating him, yelling at him.

Speaker 101 And then he took a Subway sandwich about this big and took it and threw it at the officer. He thought it was funny.

Speaker 101 Well, he doesn't think it's funny today because we charge it with a felony, assault on a police officer.

Speaker 34 Well, I don't know.

Speaker 56 I kind of want to, where is

Speaker 44 Shepherd Ferry when you need it?

Speaker 57 By the way, Subway sandwiches are notoriously soft and squishy.

Speaker 71 They never use stale bread.

Speaker 84 So if you're going to throw something at a cop, you know, it's not like you're throwing a Burger King

Speaker 76 or a McDonald's, you know.

Speaker 45 So anyway, that's where we're at, though.

Speaker 40 That's what's happening back here.

Speaker 19 Are you sure you want to come back?

Speaker 12 No, it was again.

Speaker 9 I just want to reiterate: that was the United States Attorney, top, top prosecutor for Washington.

Speaker 8 Slurring.

Speaker 55 Good to have your priorities seem to be slurring there

Speaker 9 on the sandwich toss.

Speaker 41 Okay, we'll move on. I want to get to the summit, which is why you're here tomorrow in Alaska.
There's a bunch of elements to this.

Speaker 27 Trump and Zunskin EU had a virtual meeting yesterday.

Speaker 104 But before we get into that, I just like the biggest picture.

Speaker 46 like what do you assess the sides are trying to get out of the meeting?

Speaker 52 Well, let's first assess the obvious, which is the Russians already gained an enormous symbolic victory here.

Speaker 93 Putin is an indicted war criminal according to the ICC, which we're not a party to, but still we made a big deal about it when he was indicted.

Speaker 65 We are welcoming him onto American soil, not just any strip of American soil, but Alaska, which the Russians controlled up until 1867.

Speaker 62 and the Russians like to sort of trollingly joke that they may one day yet control it again.

Speaker 102 Also, I'm hearing from my friends in the State Department.

Speaker 85 Do you know how many visas the Russians have asked for for their people?

Speaker 16 I have no idea.

Speaker 5 No, tell me.

Speaker 15 Take a wild guess.

Speaker 65 Take a wild guess.

Speaker 47 12.

Speaker 53 450.

Speaker 32 More than that, do you know what they've also done?

Speaker 59 They've requested State Department assistance in finding accommodations for their people, which include an enormous delegation of journalists.

Speaker 65 They have more journalists, quote-unquote journalists, how many of them are FSB or GRU agents, I don't know, coming in.

Speaker 46 We can't really mock their journalists anymore. I don't know if you've been watching any of the United States press conferences that we've been having lately, but some strange, strange cow in there.

Speaker 43 Their victory lap is taking the form of expecting our own foreign ministry to be like an expedia.

Speaker 71 for the Russians and find them hotel rooms in Anchorage.

Speaker 103 And I mean, if Sarah Palin could see Russia before, she can really see Russia from her house now, man.

Speaker 41 I mean, how many hotel rooms do we think there are in Anchorage?

Speaker 21 I don't know. Our Alaska listeners will be upset at me for,

Speaker 56 but it's not, you know.

Speaker 6 Yeah, both of them.

Speaker 40 It's not a high convention town.

Speaker 9 You know, it's not a big convention.

Speaker 84 It's not a Hootenani town.

Speaker 8 But anyway, you know, the Russians are coming in very high on the hog about, well, Trump has.

Speaker 103 mooted this idea.

Speaker 59 He's the one who wanted to meet with Putin, desperately seeking an audience.

Speaker 65 And as I think the White House press secretary said that Trump is, quote, honored to sit down with this war criminal.

Speaker 10 Now, there's a lot being thrown around in the media about supposed deals that have already been struck or the kinds of things that may be struck.

Speaker 85 I mean, I'm trying not to get ahead of myself here because I've seen this movie before where a lot of people run out there with very authoritative claims that then sort of evaporate.

Speaker 111 Trump has not got Putin to agree to a ceasefire, much to his chagrin, much to his evident exasperation.

Speaker 71 This is a guy who who said, the force of my charisma, he literally described himself the other day.

Speaker 78 He said, I was the apple of Putin's eye.

Speaker 6 He said this in his. He said that a couple times.
He said that a couple times, right?

Speaker 90 So the force of his charisma, you know, Putin sees Donald Trump as like, you know, Vladimir Jr., the apple of his eye.

Speaker 102 The force of his charisma and his warmth and affection was meant to get Putin to say, yeah, you know, that war of conquest I launched a few years ago to take an entire sovereign nation in Europe.

Speaker 68 Yeah, I'm going to undo all that because, because, you know, Donnie from Queens asked me nicely.

Speaker 90 So that didn't work out.

Speaker 66 Now it's what can I put on the table?

Speaker 76 How can I better negotiate with Putin directly to bring this thing to a close?

Speaker 111 And

Speaker 114 you don't have to be a Russia expert or a scholar or even particularly well-versed in the vagaries of Russian foreign policy to realize

Speaker 92 the Russians are not interested in ending the war.

Speaker 70 And Putin himself cannot end it because the entire economy revolves around fighting this thing, right?

Speaker 97 I mean, he has now invested so much of his own strategic imperative as the, you know, dictator of Russia,

Speaker 85 his very regime kind of depends on prosecuting this war, however it may go.

Speaker 106 That doesn't seem to have penetrated in the minds of Donald Trump.

Speaker 108 Steve Witkoff, who I prefer to call Dim Philby, who I was told was taken off the Russia portfolio because the New York Post wrote a very withering piece about him where some unnamed official from Trump's first term said, You know, Steve Witkoff, nice guy, but a bumbling fucking idiot who should be nowhere near any of this stuff.

Speaker 65 I was told he had been shunted off onto the Middle East portfolio where he was going to end the war with Hamas and bring the hostages home and all of that good stuff.

Speaker 74 And suddenly he comes back and he's negotiating with the Russians.

Speaker 8 With a medal. With a medal.

Speaker 86 With a medal, the Order of Lenin, which Putin evidently gave him to bestow on the CIA officer whose deeply fucked up son went off and fought with the Russians and got killed in Ukraine, right?

Speaker 84 So talk about the Russians kind of

Speaker 106 twerking the Americans here.

Speaker 69 Trolling. Yeah.

Speaker 5 He didn't understand.

Speaker 96 He didn't understand it.

Speaker 8 He thought it was nice.

Speaker 76 He thought it was like a legitimate bauble to be handed to an American intelligence officer.

Speaker 51 So yeah, I mean, and he also created a diplomatic crisis by saying, well, the Russians want all of Donetsk and Lugans, which they do not control in full, right?

Speaker 31 To take take all of Donetsk,

Speaker 64 the Ukrainians would have to withdraw from two fortified cities, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Speaker 65 If you go back to 2014, 2015, some of the most pitched battles against the so-called separatists at that time were fought for these population centers.

Speaker 62 So for the Ukrainians to withdraw from there, I mean, that's a non-starter.

Speaker 71 But anyway, Witkoff had originally suggested Russia wants Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia will withdraw from their controlled areas of Zaporizhia and Kherson.

Speaker 57 Russians never ever said that.

Speaker 8 Basically, all the Russians have done or intimated that they've done, because they're playing a little close to the chess in terms of what's been discussed, they prefer to see us in our media kind of chase our tail, figuring out what the Russians may have said.

Speaker 59 But all that they seem to have done is say, this is what we demand of Ukraine.

Speaker 66 What we're prepared to do is not up for discussion, right?

Speaker 32 So

Speaker 62 again, their starting position is they have annexed four oblasts of Ukraine. They will not un-annex them easily, certainly not for any kind of incentives that Trump might offer.

Speaker 65 Now, the one thing that's keeping me from suicidal ideation at the moment, even in the sunny climate of Portugal, where the wine is cheap, but also quite good, is there are certain means.

Speaker 109 Yeah.

Speaker 52 There are certain institutional bulwarks in place in the U.S.

Speaker 71 system, even now.

Speaker 73 Ding.

Speaker 8 Yep. Dang.

Speaker 52 Even now under an increasingly autocratic government or presidency that keep Trump from doing the worst he could possibly do.

Speaker 78 So what are these bulwarks?

Speaker 34 In his first term, there was something called CATSA, the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

Speaker 65 One of the architects of it, ironically, was Marco Rubio.

Speaker 114 What was CATSA?

Speaker 63 It was basically a way to keep the executive from signing all kinds of sanctions waivers and lifting sanctions unilaterally, especially on Russia, which at that point had been guilty of the first invasion of Ukraine.

Speaker 54 It was kind of like a manacle, a congressional manacle on White House authority.

Speaker 110 Since then, there have been all kinds of executive orders,

Speaker 88 all of them codified through CATSA, a series of legislation passed that basically does the same thing, right?

Speaker 57 Says that Congress gets oversight.

Speaker 65 You have to have a vote of Congress in order to lift some of the major sanctions on Russian oil and gas, on the Russian banking system.

Speaker 65 The second wall work, I would say, which is not in the American system, is the European Union.

Speaker 59 So the EU has said, not only not lifting any sanctions, we're going to pass new sanctions.

Speaker 100 And so you notice now Zelensky, in anticipatory terror of what's about to commence in Alaska, has been going, making the rounds with the European leadership, meeting with Mertz, having calls with everybody, saying, you have to have my back because if Donald tries to throw me under the bus again, it's going to fall to you to basically keep.

Speaker 62 Ukraine afloat.

Speaker 74 Now, there are other things too.

Speaker 66 And again, I don't credit anything Trump says.

Speaker 65 I prefer to look at what he does or he does not do.

Speaker 65 But he has said, if you want to take this as a data point, that regardless of what happens in Alaska, he will continue to sell weapons to NATO allies for the express purpose of their donating those weapons to Ukraine.

Speaker 100 So there's something called Pearl mechanism, which was recently cobbled together.

Speaker 8 That's P-U-R-L, whereby NATO is going to buy billions and billions of dollars in kit that can only be sourced here, or sorry, there, where you are in the United States, and that Ukraine badly needs.

Speaker 108 Now, these include long-range air defense systems like the Patriot, rocket artillery like Gimmlers and Attackums used by HIMARS, and howitzer 155 millimeter shells.

Speaker 119 So as long as the Europeans can buy stuff for Ukraine, Ukraine will be okay.

Speaker 82 It will not be completely forfeit in its warfighting capability.

Speaker 41 And that came out of yesterday's virtual summit?

Speaker 8 That was at least what was said by Trump or is kind of what the Americans are saying.

Speaker 59 I'm hearing some background reporting from various phone calls, including the one that Trump had with Zelensky, which went pretty well from what I've been told.

Speaker 54 But again, who knows what that means?

Speaker 66 And I wonder what the, you know, the margin of not so pretty well was in that discussion.

Speaker 87 But I mean, at the end of the day, there's things that he also cannot do unilaterally without factoring in the agency of other parties here.

Speaker 60 I mean, Ukraine's constitution forbids Ukraine from giving away territory.

Speaker 84 Right.

Speaker 52 I mean, you know, Donald Trump seems to think that war is the closing of escrow by other means.

Speaker 88 Like it's all just a real estate, you know, negotiation.

Speaker 112 It's not.

Speaker 74 Population transfers, ethnic cleansing,

Speaker 103 either de facto de your recognition of occupied territory.

Speaker 109 These are things that

Speaker 80 don't just happen overnight and cannot happen with the stroke of a pen, at least not in

Speaker 59 the 21st century, much as he would like them to go that way.

Speaker 120 So I'm not losing it just yet.

Speaker 75 But again, we've already given this unnecessary gift to the Russians by legitimating Putin in this way and inviting him onto the U.S.

Speaker 65 homeland.

Speaker 107 It's obscene.

Speaker 124 Hi, I'm Martine Hackett, host of Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition, a production from Ruby Studio in partnership with Argenix.

Speaker 127 This season, we're sharing powerful stories of resilience from people living with MG and CIDP.

Speaker 121 Our hope is to inspire, educate, and remind each other that even in the toughest moments, we're not alone.

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Speaker 129 After being diagnosed with both CIDP and dilated cardiomyopathy, he found incredible strength through community.

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Speaker 134 Listen to Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2 We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

Speaker 4 These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.

Speaker 7 They're a reminder of who this country belongs to and what we can be at our best.

Speaker 9 They're also the cornerstone of MS Now.

Speaker 14 Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the people at the heart of everything they do.

Speaker 19 Home to the Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, the briefing with Jen Saki, and more voices you know and trust.

Speaker 16 MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world.

Speaker 25 Their name is new, but you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades.

Speaker 30 They'll continue to cover the day's news, ask the tough questions, and explain how it impacts you.

Speaker 34 Same mission, new name, MS Now.

Speaker 37 Learn more at MS.now.

Speaker 9 Let's not catastrophize. Right.

Speaker 46 Let's look at it from the perspective of,

Speaker 46 okay, so

Speaker 46 of at least taking what was reported that Trump said yesterday of his virtual summit with Zelensky and a lot of other European leaders and NATO leaders, and let's just take it at face value. Yeah.

Speaker 14 I mean, we'll see what happens tomorrow, but just as an exercise.

Speaker 42 So if what he's saying is that,

Speaker 2 you know, that we'll still support NATO with weapons.

Speaker 42 He's just trying to get Putin to have a ceasefire.

Speaker 46 He feels like he is uniquely suited to do it because of his great relationship with Vladimir, etc.

Speaker 45 I guess War Game,

Speaker 11 you're Marco Rubio's chief of staff.

Speaker 55 What's the best case scenario tomorrow?

Speaker 46 I don't even understand what they're trying to achieve.

Speaker 9 I guess they're hoping that Putin just says, yeah, I'll take a ceasefire in exchange for you guys not sanctioning me?

Speaker 58 He doesn't need to have gone to Alaska to do that.

Speaker 99 He's had ample opportunity to agree to that over the past three months.

Speaker 64 He's declined.

Speaker 80 I think basically what Putin wants is a replay of Helsinki in 2018.

Speaker 65 We all remember that.

Speaker 82 He has this one-on-one with Trump, very limited contingent in the room, translators.

Speaker 62 And

Speaker 106 Fiona Hill, I think, was in the room.

Speaker 53 Maybe she wasn't.

Speaker 114 But anyway, she has the best recounting of that tete-a-tete, which was, I mean, Putin just, he rolled Trump.

Speaker 85 I mean, he flattered him.

Speaker 106 He cajoled him.

Speaker 71 He manipulated him.

Speaker 112 He convinced him that his own intelligence community was lying about Russia's election interference in 2016.

Speaker 103 He may well try to do the same thing.

Speaker 2 What are the smart people, quote-unquote, in his world?

Speaker 16 Like, what does Rubio

Speaker 46 think is a good option here?

Speaker 42 Like, a good outcome for tomorrow?

Speaker 59 It's hard for me to sort of get inside the mind of

Speaker 93 Marco Rubio at this point.

Speaker 103 I do think he, or the dead end soul of Marco Rubio.

Speaker 45 Okay, how about this way then?

Speaker 47 Let's put it this way.

Speaker 41 What would happen tomorrow that Michael Weiss would text me?

Speaker 56 At the end of the day and be like, well, that went pretty well, actually.

Speaker 45 That went surprisingly well.

Speaker 8 So, one constant in nature is the Russians, when it comes to dealing with the Americans, even when they win, they eventually lose because they ask for too much and they play it too, too rough, right?

Speaker 90 And my one hope is that Dim Philby made assurances to the American side, to Trump, the Russians are going to meet you here.

Speaker 62 Putin gets in there and says, no, I never said that. I'm not going to meet you here.

Speaker 71 So then Trump comes away angry at both Putin and Witkoff.

Speaker 52 That's the best case scenario.

Speaker 65 Trump gets really angry, like he's been manipulated or misled or lied to by his own outer borough real estate developer chum and by vladimir you know who has not stopped

Speaker 5 he's not going to get his peace prize he's not going to get his peace prize so he's mad i mean by the way the norwegians could do us a big favor just coming out and saying you're never going to get it they're just like you're never going to get it you're never going to get it like i don't know i mean i guess maybe that's that violates the rules or whatever but you know um they really could yeah all right so yeah i guess it turns out those are two different questions because, or maybe not.

Speaker 104 And Marco Rubio could not possibly be hoping for that, right?

Speaker 46 That he's just like a bang shop.

Speaker 49 Maybe boss gets mad.

Speaker 46 We're doing this. Maybe boss gets mad.

Speaker 22 It's this legitimate question.

Speaker 42 Like, I genuinely can't fathom what they think they're going to get out of this.

Speaker 45 Like, I don't understand it.

Speaker 102 I don't see a fire sale of Ukrainian territory.

Speaker 52 happening.

Speaker 92 It may be introduced.

Speaker 66 It's not going to go anywhere.

Speaker 106 The Ukrainians cannot do it.

Speaker 71 It's not just Zelensky, by the way.

Speaker 65 The entirety of the Ukrainian political class would be against that.

Speaker 66 The Ukrainian population is very keen to see the war end, and they're willing to negotiate with Russia in a manner that they weren't even a few months ago.

Speaker 117 But there are certain red lines here, right?

Speaker 65 And the Europeans won't go for that as well.

Speaker 87 I would say, you know, at minimum, you may be looking at prisoner swaps, which was the only sort of tangible outcome of the Istanbul meetings between the Ukrainians and the Russians.

Speaker 80 You may see a ceasefire in the air, which is something that's also been mooted.

Speaker 62 So, you know, the Russians stop bombing and droning Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centers, and the Ukrainians agree not to go after Russian oil and gas refineries or military installations inside Russian Federation territory, right?

Speaker 91 Maybe you get that. I doubt it, though.

Speaker 51 I don't see Putin wanting to pump the brakes at any point.

Speaker 110 And just this week, you know, everybody got into a bit of a frenzy and panic mode, which is understandable.

Speaker 106 But just this week, the Russians broke through Ukrainian defenses in the east.

Speaker 37 Hold on.

Speaker 56 I want to get to that next. Let's go to that.

Speaker 46 It's just one more thing on the deal, because there's a Telegraph story on the process.

Speaker 46 And I know you said you don't want to get ahead of what crazy stuff Trump could possibly offer, but I just think this is just worth putting on the table since it's out there.

Speaker 41 It said this Trump will arrive.

Speaker 8 They say will.

Speaker 104 We'll see if the reporting's accurate.

Speaker 46 I think you really probably shouldn't use the word will with anything about what Donald Trump's going to do the next day because who the fuck knows?

Speaker 104 But

Speaker 42 armed with a number of money-making opportunities for Putin, including opening up Alaska's natural resources to Moscow.

Speaker 47 Now,

Speaker 6 I hear you on not wanting to get ahead, but that just caught my eye because that's like, now that kind of sounds like Donald's, actually.

Speaker 46 Maybe that's the plan to go there and to be like,

Speaker 45 well, enriching you, maybe a crypto deal.

Speaker 57 I mean, look, you know, before the war, first of all, Russia has a GDP smaller than the state of California.

Speaker 100 If you're looking to make money, you're much better off going to Asia, which was, you know, we've had this sort of fantastical pivot to Asia over successive administrations.

Speaker 50 It never seems to be realized.

Speaker 115 But also dealing with the Europeans and the European Union.

Speaker 105 I mean, they are our largest trade partner.

Speaker 37 So it makes no economical or financial sense to say we're going to do big business with Russia at the expense of our biggest trade partner, right?

Speaker 98 Like, you know, we can all be very cynical about Donald Trump, but

Speaker 106 he does seem to be very transactionally motivated here.

Speaker 77 And offering the Russians something that A, they don't want, B, they don't need, and C, is not going to get us what we need out of them.

Speaker 80 Eventually, he's going to have to realize just that's the way it is.

Speaker 106 It wasn't so long ago that one of the ways that the Ukrainians were seeking to curry favor with Trump and lock him into this alliance or strategic partnership with Ukraine was the minerals deal.

Speaker 106 We all remember that, the rare earths thing, which that was meant to be signed in the Oval Office in February, and then they had their big two minutes of hate against Zelensky, both Trump and Vance, and it blew up, and then it was signed.

Speaker 116 Well,

Speaker 102 what happens to that, right, if the Russians continue to move forward in the East, where a lot of these deposits are?

Speaker 59 Suddenly, the contract is invalidated, it's torn up, and we have to write a new one between the United States and Russia because these mineral deposits become Russian-held assets.

Speaker 120 You know, it doesn't make any sense.

Speaker 66 You've just concluded one board and room negotiation and sanctified, you know, what it was agreed on, and now you've basically forfeited by doing something else with a third party.

Speaker 59 At the end of the day, I still see a chance for Ukraine not to come away as successful as it should have come away, particularly in the last administration, where I think we were a little bit too slow and too fearful of escalating with the Russians, and we gave them things too late, although they made ample use of them.

Speaker 59 I'm not in sort of end-of-the-world mode yet.

Speaker 66 We are still providing arms, however indirectly and for whatever cost.

Speaker 102 We have yet to lift sanctions. I don't expect Trump to impose new sanctions.
Maybe he'll he'll surprise everybody.

Speaker 62 Maybe he'll come out of this meeting deeply aggrieved with the Russians and hit crippling tariffs on China and also escalate the sanctions regime against Russia.

Speaker 74 But even if he doesn't, it's not the end of the world, right?

Speaker 109 I mean, Europe gets a lot of grief, but I want to read you a few statistics here because I think they're quite telling.

Speaker 106 In the last six to eight months, you have seen two parts of Europe step up significantly in terms of security assistance and also seeing the writing on the wall that the United States was in a kind of recessional, not only pulling out of Ukraine, but essentially trying to relitigate, if not completely abandon, the transatlantic relationship.

Speaker 85 I mean, we all remember J.D.

Speaker 111 Vance and Elon Musk interfering in Germany's election on behalf of AFD, a far-right.

Speaker 114 Nazi party that has seats in the Bundestag.

Speaker 84 But the two parts of Europe that have done really a great deal of good, and they don't get enough recognition, are the Nordic countries and the Baltic countries?

Speaker 102 Individually, perhaps small, but collectively kind of powerful.

Speaker 66 So, I want to read you the following just to give you a sense not only of what they're doing, but just how in stark contrast this is to the notion that Trump and his surrogates have peddled that the Europeans are a bunch of freeloading welfare queens who don't do their fair share here.

Speaker 118 Okay, since January of 2022 and June 2025, Denmark has spent 2.9% of its GDP on Ukraine, Estonia 2.8%, Lithuania 2.2%, Latvia 1.8%, Sweden 1.4%, and Finland 1.3.

Speaker 119 These are figures.

Speaker 74 These are percentages of GDP spent on a foreign country that are in excess of the percent of GDP that some European countries like Spain spend on their own defense as part of NATO.

Speaker 83 These are countries that are giving emptying their stocks of all the weapon systems that they have but do not need right now and understand

Speaker 66 are but much better used on the battlefields of Ukraine to destroy Russian armor and personnel there so that the Russians cannot turn around and invade another European country in future.

Speaker 92 There's a lot of kind of naysaying, and I get it.

Speaker 66 Like Mark Rutte with his daddy comments, the way that the Europeans come across awkwardly.

Speaker 40 Didn't love that.

Speaker 87 Didn't love that. They come across awkwardly as too kind of deferential, if not slavishly devoted to keeping Trump in good odor.

Speaker 113 They're doing it for a reason, though, right?

Speaker 103 Which is, you know, decoupling from the United States or getting the kind of security autonomy, as Macron has put it, in place, it's like wheeling a tanker around in the ocean.

Speaker 59 You can't just whip it around.

Speaker 66 You move it by degrees, right?

Speaker 71 And it takes time and it takes energy.

Speaker 112 So I have to give the Europeans some breathing space and some credit here.

Speaker 113 And again, the real test will be if Donald Trump puts a gun to their head and says, you know, you have to sell out Ukraine, even though he has repeatedly said this is your war.

Speaker 21 or this is in your neighborhood, you should sustain this.

Speaker 64 You should be responsible for it.

Speaker 103 And they say, thank you, but fuck you.

Speaker 90 We're not lifting sanctions.

Speaker 62 We're only imposing more sanctions.

Speaker 74 And we will continue, so long as this NATO mechanism is in place, to buy American weaponry for the purposes of giving it to Ukraine.

Speaker 109 That's a good thing.

Speaker 92 That's a good thing in many respects, right?

Speaker 109 Like we are telling an autocratic and corrupt American government that we appreciate everything you've done for us for the last 80 years, but we'll take it from here.

Speaker 80 you know and i've been advocating to the europeans you have to do this you know you absolutely have to do this it's in your own interest, and it certainly is in Ukraine's interest.

Speaker 102 So I don't genuinely come across as overly optimistic on these things.

Speaker 116 Okay, I'm loving it.

Speaker 103 But I'm not, again, if you just look at sort of the data,

Speaker 119 things could be so much worse for Ukraine than they are.

Speaker 57 They're not great and they're not rosy.

Speaker 65 You know, again, I mentioned that Russia had this kind of

Speaker 102 breakthrough, but it's not catastrophic.

Speaker 116 And if you query intelligence officials, if you query military analysts, they'll tell you the same thing.

Speaker 64 It's not catastrophic.

Speaker 124 Hi, I'm Martine Hackett, host of Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition, a production from Ruby Studio in partnership with Argenix.

Speaker 127 This season, we're sharing powerful stories of resilience from people living with MG and CIDP.

Speaker 121 Our hope is to inspire, educate, and remind each other that even in the toughest moments, we're not alone.

Speaker 132 We'll hear from people like Corbin Whittington.

Speaker 129 After being diagnosed with both CIDP and dilated cardiomyopathy, he found incredible strength through community.

Speaker 131 So when we talk community, we're talking about an entire ecosystem surrounding this condition, including, of course, the patients at the center that are all trying to live life in the moment, live life for the future, but then also create a new future.

Speaker 134 Listen to Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2 We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

Speaker 4 These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.

Speaker 6 They're a reminder of who this country belongs to.

Speaker 7 and what we can be at our best.

Speaker 9 They're also the cornerstone of MS Now.

Speaker 14 Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the people at the heart of everything they do.

Speaker 19 Home to the Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, the briefing with Jen Saki, and more voices you know and trust.

Speaker 16 MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world.

Speaker 25 Their name is new, but you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades.

Speaker 30 They'll continue to cover the day's news, ask the tough questions, and explain how it impacts you.

Speaker 34 Same mission, new name, MS Now.

Speaker 37 Learn more at MS.now.

Speaker 46 Back to what you were saying earlier about what is actually happening on the ground, because I've seen some reports that there were additional Russian military advances.

Speaker 10 That's been happening this week.

Speaker 46 They got behind Ukraine in certain areas.

Speaker 46 So

Speaker 5 talk about what's happening on the ground.

Speaker 102 It's complicated along the contact line.

Speaker 70 So the conventional wisdom has been that this sort of gray zone, which extends several kilometers on

Speaker 93 sort of a no-man's land between where the Ukrainians and the Russians are, particularly in Donbas,

Speaker 76 is so chaka-blocked with drones that it was preventing any kind of breakthrough on either side.

Speaker 66 So what the Russians have done characteristically in the last six months to even maybe a year is rather than try to push heavy armor through, they send in guys on motorbikes or buggies, you know, two-men rapid, you know, assault groups to try and probe and then penetrate gaps or weaknesses in the Ukrainian defenses.

Speaker 37 Well, they found one.

Speaker 106 Now, it's very unclear to me.

Speaker 115 I've seen a very credible source called Deep State, which is a Ukrainian mapping service that kind of plots points.

Speaker 114 They were claiming that that basically the Russians cut a very narrow but lengthy sliver, possibly seven kilometers, more than seven kilometers, right through from the Prokhrosk direction, which has been a very hot area on the battlefield.

Speaker 66 Pokhrowsk is the one town that the Russians are seeking to capture.

Speaker 72 It's kind of the new Bakhmut.

Speaker 63 But I'm also seeing evidence, and the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Ukrainians believe that they have stabilized that situation.

Speaker 85 So it doesn't quite count as what you would call an operational breakthrough, but it was a penetration.

Speaker 74 I mean,

Speaker 71 sometimes when the enemy comes through like this, they come through in too few numbers.

Speaker 63 They don't have a supply chain or they don't have a logistics line behind them.

Speaker 71 And then the defenders can simply cut them off, right?

Speaker 8 And

Speaker 93 hit them in the rear and whatever.

Speaker 74 So that seems that something like that has happened.

Speaker 91 But optically, it was...

Speaker 64 It was absolutely terrible, right?

Speaker 66 Because here we are, you know, on the eve of this thing in Alaska, and it looks like the Ukrainians are suddenly now on the back foot.

Speaker 100 You know, this attritional war has now shifted to, oh, the Russians are moving forward.

Speaker 86 So that gives ballast, however illegitimate and however meritless, based on everything I've just told you, to the kind of MAGA argument you see.

Speaker 83 Ukraine cannot win.

Speaker 112 In spite of all the gazillions we've spent on supporting them, they're still losing.

Speaker 108 We have to do a deal.

Speaker 65 And Putin will have absolutely capitalized on this development, especially the way that the U.S.

Speaker 66 media has framed it.

Speaker 59 going into this thing tomorrow.

Speaker 41 One other just I have under the umbrella of Russia shenanigans, because we haven't brought this up, just a couple of other news items that were out this week.

Speaker 46 There's a Colombian national, I guess, acting on behalf of Russian intelligence that carried out two arson attacks in Poland last year, but

Speaker 46 just this week they're finally indicted and they said that this was, in fact, Russia.

Speaker 45 There's been a hack in the U.S.

Speaker 46 Investigators uncovered evidence that Russia is responsible for a hack of a computer system that manages federal court documents, including highly sensitive records.

Speaker 45 I guess that part of the Russia op gets lost a little bit.

Speaker 46 And even myself, I'm kind of like, well, you know, they're distracted in Ukraine and some of this other stuff that they're doing, this other meddling, you know, they cannot possibly be focusing on as much.

Speaker 42 But that does not seem to be the case.

Speaker 43 Well,

Speaker 106 their army is distracted in Ukraine, but their special services are, I mean, their raison d'ete is to mess with the West and do exactly these kinds of things.

Speaker 87 I mean, the group responsible or the military intelligence service, the GRU, is behind these sabotage operations.

Speaker 71 And what they would do in the past is they would send their well-trained operatives into European countries, such as the Czech Republic or Bulgaria.

Speaker 90 They would plant bombs in storage facilities where weapons and ammunition destined either for Ukraine or Georgia, or in some cases, the Syrian opposition were being stockpiled.

Speaker 78 And they would blow these things up.

Speaker 61 So committing acts of war, acts of state terror on EU-NATO soil using officers of Russian military intelligence.

Speaker 8 A lot of those officers, though, got unmasked, including by my colleagues at The Insider for trying to poison Sergei and Yulius Skripal, for doing these kinds of bombings that I've just described.

Speaker 71 So what have they done since the full-scale invasion in 2022?

Speaker 100 They've taken a leaf out of the ISIS and al-Qaeda playbooks in that they're trying to remotely recruit assets in the West.

Speaker 106 for money, paying them cryptocurrency, in some cases a couple hundred dollars, in other cases thousands of dollars, communicating with them on telegram and tasking them with going and throwing a petrol bomb into a museum in Riga that memorializes Soviet occupation, or arsoning an IKEA warehouse in Vilnius, or, you know, in the case of Germany, planting incendiary devices, trying to plant incendiary devices on DHL cargo planes, and sometimes smuggled in little trinkets and even sex toys, right?

Speaker 112 And they're finding willing assets or agents in the West who are desperate for money.

Speaker 99 They're not necessarily ideologically motivated.

Speaker 59 In some cases, they may be.

Speaker 77 But now what they've done, there's a department called Department E, and it's run by the GRU unit 29155, which did all of these kind of kinetic operations I've been alluding to.

Speaker 100 And Department E is kind of a combination of the GRU and the old Soviet common term or communist international, in that they're looking for foreign nationals, not just in their own neck of the woods, but all over the world, that they can recruit, bring to places where they can give them some modicum of training, because they don't want to be complete amateur hour here, right?

Speaker 90 Because with amateurs, you run the risk of things going sideways, blowing things up prematurely, a lot of collateral damage.

Speaker 65 You want to have people who know how to build a bomb and how to install a bomb and how to work a detonator.

Speaker 33 So we're hearing and we're seeing evidence at the Insider, where I work, they're recruiting Cubans, Venezuelans, South Americans, Africans, who, I mean, as you may know, the Kremlin, the Russian Ministry of Defense, has actually given contracts to, I mean, peasants in Africa telling them, come to Russia and you'll be like putting shampoo in bottles.

Speaker 106 In fact, they're coming to Russia and they're building drones.

Speaker 90 And they're using children who are blowing their hands off and blowing themselves up because they don't know what they're doing.

Speaker 64 So it's very cynical.

Speaker 65 And, you know, they're enlisting people to commit acts of criminality, acts of state terrorism.

Speaker 99 But,

Speaker 110 you know, desperate people will do incredible things, particularly with anonymities they meet on the internet.

Speaker 105 So, this is a very kind of scary state of affairs.

Speaker 66 And, you know, one of the things I would be advocating if I were in the White House or

Speaker 74 working for the intelligence community in the United States is anything that gets discussed with the Russians.

Speaker 90 You know, the first order of business is Russia needs to stop not only its war in Ukraine, but its war against the West, which has been ongoing now for decades.

Speaker 85 We like to dress this up in euphemisms, hybrid war, gray zone conflict, asymmetrical.

Speaker 54 I just call it war.

Speaker 77 I mean, you know, Gary Kasparov is very Orwellian in the good way about the use of language here.

Speaker 90 These are acts of war, and we like to downplay them or kind of act as the sort of unlikely legal defense counsel for the Russians.

Speaker 71 Why?

Speaker 65 Because we're terrified of the consequences of admitting what's happening, fear of escalation, right?

Speaker 59 What are we going to do to the Russians in retaliation?

Speaker 71 So, yeah, I mean, There are over 500 cases, some of them verified and adjudicated by different jurisdictions in Europe, others just highly likely it's the Russians behind them, but 500 cases in the last few years that have been exactly this, attempts to blow things up or to do provocations and acts of subversion on European soil.

Speaker 124 Hi, I'm Martine Hackett, host of Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition, a production from Ruby Studio in partnership with Argenix.

Speaker 126 This season, we're sharing powerful stories of resilience from people living with MG and CIDP.

Speaker 121 Our hope is to inspire, educate, and remind each other that even in the toughest moments, we're not alone.

Speaker 132 We'll hear from people like Corbin Whittington.

Speaker 129 After being diagnosed with both CIDP and dilated cardiomyopathy, he found incredible strength through community.

Speaker 131 So when we talk community, we're talking about an entire ecosystem surrounding this condition, including, of course, the patients at the center, that are all trying to live life in the moment, live life for the future, but then also create a new future.

Speaker 134 Listen to Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2 We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

Speaker 4 These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.

Speaker 6 They're a reminder of who this country belongs to.

Speaker 7 and what we can be at our best.

Speaker 9 They're also the cornerstone of MS Now.

Speaker 14 Whether Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the people at the heart of everything they do.

Speaker 21 Home to the Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, the briefing with Jen Saki, and more voices you know and trust, MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world.

Speaker 26 Their name is new, but you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades.

Speaker 30 They'll continue to cover the day's news, ask the tough questions, and explain how it impacts you.

Speaker 34 Same mission, new name, MS Now.

Speaker 37 Learn more at ms.now.

Speaker 46 I'm curious, you know, when you're having these conversations with folks, particularly in Europe, like developing thoughts on Israel, Gaza.

Speaker 46 And it definitely feels like, I mean, the Europeans weren't exactly the biggest advocates of Israel's actions in the war initially, but it feels like there's even, you know, been a...

Speaker 46 been a notable change in their posture over the last month or so with the humanitarian issues in Gaza and the journalists that have been droned.

Speaker 46 I'm just wondering if you are noticing any change and how that might impact things geopolitically.

Speaker 59 Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest sort of bellwether to me recently was Germany saying it's not going to send weapons to Israel.

Speaker 90 I mean, Germany has been kind of the most pro-Israel country in Europe.

Speaker 59 I mean, to a fault, you know, doing things like disinviting authors and journalists who have been critical of Israeli occupation in the West Bank from giving talks in German government institutions and things like that.

Speaker 93 And, you know, we all, I think, understand why Germany,

Speaker 93 among other nations in Europe, has

Speaker 99 taken this attitude.

Speaker 109 But if Mertz is now.

Speaker 40 You want to put a good foot forward if you're Germany.

Speaker 55 You don't want to send any wrong signals there.

Speaker 131 But yeah, I hear you. Right.

Speaker 91 Right.

Speaker 90 And now you have this sort of growing chorus,

Speaker 89 not just in Europe, I mean, Australia most recently, that they're going to recognize a state of Palestine, symbolically powerful, but materially isn't going to to change much.

Speaker 83 And another thing that,

Speaker 65 if I can sort of tie the two themes of this discussion together, another thing that might have been slightly useful in, again, the sort of muddled and somewhat contradictory reporting about the preliminaries of the Alaska summit is Steve Witkoff apparently is suggesting a kind of West Bank

Speaker 119 administrative arrangement for Russia and Ukraine.

Speaker 110 Now, I can only advocate Steve Witkoff touring European capitals and saying, right, so what we want the Russians to do is what the Israelis are doing in Palestine.

Speaker 96 That'll go down.

Speaker 68 That'll go down real well here.

Speaker 84 You know, like, again, you know, Dim Philby steps on a rake.

Speaker 8 Europe has been historically much more sympathetic to the Palestinian plight and cause than the United States is, although things seem to be changing in America as well.

Speaker 72 Opinion is not what it once was.

Speaker 66 And I think the Israelis recognize that as well.

Speaker 40 Do they recognize it?

Speaker 46 Do they care, I guess, would be my question.

Speaker 81 No, no, no. When I say the Israeli, I don't mean Netanyahu and his cabinet.

Speaker 61 I mean people who are certainly intelligence and military professionals of old,

Speaker 59 see that there is a massive international isolation taking place, and they're blaming Bibi for it.

Speaker 60 I mean, they say you can't afford to lose some of these allies because without them, we're kind of lost, a drifted sea.

Speaker 60 I think in some cases, Israel is a victim of its own military triumphalism and its successes in the region, particularly, you know, neutering Hezbollah, which was probably the cornerstone cornerstone of its

Speaker 113 multiple theater wars, what they did in Iran.

Speaker 106 They think that they, you know, they're the only game in town. No one can sort of confront them or challenge them and that everybody will kind of fall in line.

Speaker 66 Well, no,

Speaker 8 it's not working out that way.

Speaker 124 Hi, I'm Martine Hackett, host of Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition, a production from Ruby Studio in partnership with Argenix.

Speaker 126 This season, we're sharing powerful stories of resilience from people living with MG and CIDP.

Speaker 121 Our hope is to inspire, educate, and remind each other that even in the toughest moments, we're not alone.

Speaker 132 We'll hear from people like Corbin Whittington.

Speaker 129 After being diagnosed with both CIDP and dilated cardiomyopathy, he found incredible strength through community.

Speaker 131 So when we talk community, we're talking about an entire ecosystem surrounding this condition, including, of course, the patients at the center that are all trying to live life in the moment, live life for the future, but then also create a new future.

Speaker 134 Listen to Untold Stories, Life with a Severe Autoimmune Condition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2 We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

Speaker 4 These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.

Speaker 7 They're a reminder of who this country belongs to and what we can be at our best.

Speaker 9 They're also the cornerstone of MS Now.

Speaker 14 Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the people at the heart of everything they do.

Speaker 19 Home to the Rachel Maddow Show, Morning Joe, the briefing with Jen Saki, and more voices you know and trust.

Speaker 16 MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world.

Speaker 25 Their name is new, but you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades.

Speaker 30 They'll continue to cover the day's news, ask the tough questions, and explain how it impacts you.

Speaker 34 Same mission, new name, MS Now.

Speaker 37 Learn more at MS.now.

Speaker 49 One more, just kind of tying the conversation together is the tariffs.

Speaker 46 Just as like as one example here, Besant yesterday was talking about how we've put secondary tariffs on India for buying Russian oil.

Speaker 46 They're trying to use the tariffs as a leverage point here in these negotiations ahead of Alaska. This has sort of thrust India into China's arms, creating other geopolitical issues.

Speaker 46 You can go off on that or just anything broad that you're hearing about how the tariff conversation has impacted things.

Speaker 59 Yeah, I mean, look, you know, I understand the point of view of those who think Trump has not and will not ever do anything untoward to the Russians because he's either just

Speaker 59 feels it in his Kishkas that Putin is the best friend he just hasn't made yet or perhaps might be a Russian intelligence asset or whatever.

Speaker 59 I mean, look, the bottom line is if you're going to really hit the Russian energy sector, you're going to have to put tariffs on China.

Speaker 91 However, hitting India was sort of baked into the cake of the much-touted and yet unrealized Blumenthal or Graham Blumenthal bill, right?

Speaker 62 Which is meant to be this kind of neutron bomb of secondary sanctions, which would impose 500% tariffs on any country importing Russian oil, gas, petroleum products, or uranium.

Speaker 71 Well, India certainly qualifies in that regard.

Speaker 71 And you've seen some reporting suggesting that the Indians are saying, well, okay, we'll back away from importing Russian oil or we'll pivot to to American oil or whatever.

Speaker 45 It is kind of funny.

Speaker 40 It's like, it's like we're really, in order to show how strong we are in Russia, we're really coming down hard on India.

Speaker 103 No, I get it.

Speaker 52 It's a low order thing for Trump to do.

Speaker 97 He's very,

Speaker 59 it's very easy for him to beat up on our friends and allies, right?

Speaker 54 And then eventually he kind of climbs down.

Speaker 65 That's why he's taco. He doesn't like going after our adversary, or at least our great power adversaries.
I would not qualify Iran as that.

Speaker 86 And that, I think, as I said earlier on your show or in a previous episode, that was sort of

Speaker 71 an invitation crafted by the Israelis to come on in.

Speaker 62 The water's fine.

Speaker 8 We've taken care of it all, right?

Speaker 114 So it was the lowest order kind of military action for him.

Speaker 80 But it does not look very likely that he is going to impose any kind of penalty on the Russians.

Speaker 76 And if the best outcome here is that he doesn't give the Russians any new freebies.

Speaker 51 He doesn't improve the state of their economy, which is right now in tatters.

Speaker 66 And he allows the Europeans to kind of inherit the mantle of this conflict, which, as I've said before, they have done to a large degree already.

Speaker 57 That's probably the best case scenario I can envisage.

Speaker 76 So in other words, kind of benign neglect, wash his hands of it, move on to, I don't know, sending the Marines into Madison Square Garden or whatever.

Speaker 75 Like,

Speaker 8 you know,

Speaker 66 honestly, I just, we have to be very realistic here.

Speaker 62 This is not a guy who cares about Ukraine at all.

Speaker 66 In fact, the opposite.

Speaker 37 I think he sees it as a liability and a burden, and he would like to see Russia as a great opportunity.

Speaker 65 But if only the Russians would agree with him on that.

Speaker 96 All right.

Speaker 14 Michael Weiss, anything else around the world on your eyes?

Speaker 45 Anything I didn't ask you about? Anything

Speaker 45 you're monitoring?

Speaker 13 Or just preparing for anchorage?

Speaker 58 Yeah, no,

Speaker 65 I've been trying to be as switched off as possible while I'm on holiday here. All right, what?

Speaker 96 I'm sorry for taking off with holiday and beautiful K-K.

Speaker 44 People who who have not been there, it's spelled, Folson, C-A-S-C-A-I-S, right?

Speaker 47 Case-Kech?

Speaker 61 Yes, and I'm determined to mispronounce it even after I leave here because I hear different things from different people, including the way my in-laws pronounce it would probably get all Americans driven out of Portugal.

Speaker 46 I just had the most glorious afternoon there, and it was almost, it was bittersweet, actually, because I was just jealous I hadn't scheduled more time when I was there in Portugal.

Speaker 46 So I'm jealous of you.

Speaker 105 This has become like a very popular expat country because it's beautiful.

Speaker 77 The people are very friendly and warm and it's inexpensive.

Speaker 68 I mean, you will not eat a bad meal and you will not pay a lot of money for it.

Speaker 71 So I encourage all to come to Portugal.

Speaker 83 And no, I'm not being underwritten by the Portuguese Ministry of Tourism or Culture in saying that.

Speaker 41 All right. That's Michael Weiss.

Speaker 48 Appreciate you for taking an hour on your holiday.

Speaker 66 Appreciate your wife,

Speaker 46 you know, kind of having to mosey around here.

Speaker 48 No birds this time, but we've got people around us.

Speaker 46 You can only do so much.

Speaker 27 And everybody else,

Speaker 45 we've got an interesting guest for you. Tomorrow we'll be doing some rhyming, and I think you'll be enjoying it.

Speaker 30 So come back for that.

Speaker 29 We'll see y'all soon. Peace.

Speaker 79 stars got nothing on me

Speaker 47 Your sun's got nothing on me

Speaker 47 And the fool who sees it's the beastly's got nothing on me

Speaker 47 You know it's not because the light here gets brighter

Speaker 47 And it's not that I'm evil

Speaker 47 I've got a friend in the devil

Speaker 47 But I can't even be your friend.

Speaker 47 I can't even be your friend.

Speaker 47 I can't even be your friend.

Speaker 47 I hate it so wounds up, but I'm in alright. And if I get depressed, yeah, there'd be nights when I shouldn't do it.
I still do it.

Speaker 47 What you think is fine, the business do with this

Speaker 47 before you were born,

Speaker 47 I was all that sitting.

Speaker 47 Yeah, yeah, yeah. When I get to work, it's up, when I work it out.
And if I get deep down, I just shout it out.

Speaker 47 I've been not out at all, but the rest will do. And there's nothing that can sort of do with you.

Speaker 47 Before you were born,

Speaker 47 I was already sitting.

Speaker 47 It's not because the fly here is fine.

Speaker 47 And it's not that I'm evil.

Speaker 47 I just don't like to pretend

Speaker 47 that I could ever be your friend.

Speaker 99 The Fuller Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

Speaker 135 This is Matt Rogers from Lost Culturists with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.

Speaker 136 This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturists with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.

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Speaker 39 Are your AI agents helping users or just creating more work? If you can't compare your users' workflows before and after adding AI, How do you know it's even paying off?

Speaker 39 Pendo Agent Analytics is the first tool to connect connect agent prompts and conversations to downstream outcomes like time saved, so you know what's working and what to fix.

Speaker 39 Start improving agent performance at pendo.io/slash podcast. That's pendo.io/slash podcast.