Ali Vitali and Will Saletan: An Epiphany on Ukraine?

Speaker 5 Get ready for Malice, a twisted new drama starring Jack Whitehall, David DeCovny, and Carise Van Houten.

Speaker 11 Jack Whitehall plays Adam, a charming manny, infiltrates the wealthy Tanner family with a hidden motive to destroy them.

Speaker 17 This edge-of-your-seat revenge thriller unravels a deliciously dark mystery in a world full of wealth, secrets, and betrayal.

Speaker 23 Malice will constantly keep you on your toes.

Speaker 24 Why is Adam after the Tanner family?

Speaker 13 What lengths will he go to?

Speaker 27 One thing's for sure, the past never stays buried, so keep your enemies close.

Speaker 30 Watch Malice, all episodes now streaming exclusively on Prime Video.

Speaker 35 California has millions of homes that could be damaged in a strong earthquake.

Speaker 40 Older homes are especially vulnerable to quake damage, so you may need to take steps to strengthen yours.

Speaker 43 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com to learn how to strengthen your home and help protect it from damage.

Speaker 49 The work may cost less than you think and can often be done in just a few days.

Speaker 52 Strengthen your home and help protect your family.

Speaker 55 Get prepared today and worry less tomorrow.

Speaker 58 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com.

Speaker 60 Hey JVL, it's been months since I've seen you without a screen intermediary. I'm just dying to lick your face and put my hands on you.
And so,

Speaker 60 are you going to come do some public events with us and

Speaker 60 human contact? Human contact? Yes. Yes.
I'm I'm going to do it. I'm coming out of the house.
I'm leaving the basement for two days.

Speaker 60 May 1st in Philadelphia and May 15th in Washington, D.C. This will be the first Bulwark event where we encourage jeering because it's Philly, people.
So jeer us. Yes.
It's May 1st.

Speaker 60 If we have a bad show, I expect the Philly crowd to boo us. Please.
Or anyway, even if it's a good show, boo us anyway. We deserve it.

Speaker 60 May 1st in Philly, May 15th, 6 and I Synagogue in Washington, D.C. Come hang out.
Go to thebulwark.com slash events to get your tickets. Thebulwark.com/slash events and JVL.

Speaker 60 I just can't wait to get all up on you.

Speaker 60 Hello, and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. It's Thursday, April 18th.
I'm delighted to be here with my pal Allie Vitale, Capitol Hill correspondent for NBC News.

Speaker 60 My favorite person, one of my favorite.

Speaker 60 Let's not overdo it. One of my favorite people.

Speaker 61 My favorite person. It was just fine.

Speaker 60 One of my favorite people to be on MSNBC with, author of Electable, Why America Hasn't Put a Woman in the White House Yet.

Speaker 60 Obviously, Ellie is here to discuss the craziness on the Hill and maybe just a hint of sanity on the Hill, actually, from the Republicans.

Speaker 60 But before we do that, because you've written that book, I'm just kind of dying to ask you about Vice President Harris and the context of the book.

Speaker 60 Like, we can stipulate that she's had some political struggles. Yeah.
I'd argue that some of that's her own mistake. Some of that's the nature of being VP.
They made a satire out of Veep for a reason.

Speaker 60 But some is obviously succumbing to the misogynist tropes that have bedeviled other women politicians. So I like you studied this.
You looked at Geraldine Ferraro. You went deep.

Speaker 60 So I'm just curious what your take is on how Kamala has navigated all that.

Speaker 61 Well, Tim, this is my first time on the pot, but I'm definitely coming back because you just said I was your favorite of all the people you ever have done television with.

Speaker 61 Is that what I heard correctly?

Speaker 60 One of my favorites. Sometimes,

Speaker 60 yeah, sometimes I can buff it up a guest a little bit. You know, I'm new to the host game.
I want people to come back.

Speaker 61 We love that. So you have me now on the hook.
Look, when it comes to Kamala Harris, I think that, and I write this in the book, like she is subject to both the fair and unfair.

Speaker 61 Her allies would tell you that most of it is unfair. Her critics would tell you that all of it's fair.

Speaker 61 I actually fall somewhere in the middle right alongside of you, which is that as a politician, you got to deal in the world that you live in.

Speaker 61 You can't wave a magic wand and make people not still fall prey to misogyny and racism. You can call it out.
And certainly that's the ecosystem that I hope that we're living in more.

Speaker 61 But I think that this last phase of the administration, the last two years, and going into an election year are really Kamala Harris's chance at redemption, in large part because abortion is such a front and center issue.

Speaker 61 And we watch the ways that Joe Biden has been willing to talk about it, but he is more reluctant to dive in on this issue in large part because of his background.

Speaker 61 Vice President Harris has been very outspoken. She has gone to the center of these states in Florida, in Arizona, immediately after those news cycles on whatever abortion restrictions were passed.

Speaker 61 That's a really motivating issue for the electorate. It's important to have a woman and a black woman at that talking about that issue at this moment.

Speaker 61 And I do think that because she's at the forefront of that, it is an opportunity for her to be seen as a passionate advocate on a policy that she's comfortable about.

Speaker 61 And that's really going to be important when we write the legacy of the first female vice president.

Speaker 60 I'd add one more thing to that. I agree with all that.
I'd like to see her back in that prosecutor role this year, prosecuting the case against Trump aggressively.

Speaker 60 Biden is pretty good at that, but he's lost a step, and she could really take that. I think that she's been a little reluctant to be the attack dog, but I don't know.

Speaker 60 In some ways, I'm curious your view on this.

Speaker 60 Being more aggressive might help overcompensate for some of those unfair implicit biases a little bit too. And I think it placed her strengths a little bit.

Speaker 61 It might, but also, and I again write this in the book, is like vice presidents are not supposed to overshadow the boss.

Speaker 61 Biden's actually an example of what not to do when you look at the ways that he overstepped Obama on a variety of different issues, including, but not limited to, gay marriage and the ways that he made news around Obamacare and other things like that.

Speaker 61 You're not supposed to do that if you're being a good vice president.

Speaker 61 Every former aide that I talked to who worked at a vice presidential office was like, the job is to ride the coattails and amplify the message.

Speaker 61 If she were stepping out in front, what's the thing that we would be hearing consistently? Oh, she's too ambitious. Oh, she's trying to get ahead.
Those are unfair misogynist tropes to begin with.

Speaker 61 But yes, I do think there's an opportunity for her, especially in a vice presidential debate. And I put that with an asterisk because like, I don't know if we're getting debates this time.

Speaker 61 But if we do, what an opportunity. Because we watched what she did with former vice president Mike Pence, although the fly certainly played its own role too.

Speaker 61 But I do think that if it's someone like Tim Scott or Elise Stefanik or Christy Noam, that's a fascinating dynamic to watch in a debate stage.

Speaker 60 For sure. And maybe the expectations gave my playdoard benefit there.
Okay. I want to get to the hill, but where are you right now for our YouTube viewers? You have fake books there.
There's a flag.

Speaker 60 What is happening? Where are you right now?

Speaker 61 I look like I'm some mix of like a lawmaker with the flags, but no, I just found a closet in our area on the hill where reporters dwell, our little lairs. So this is one of the nicer lairs.

Speaker 61 I dressed it up for you.

Speaker 60 A Capitol Hill closet. It looks really great.
Okay. So Mike Johnson has found Jesus on Ukraine and it's kind of shocking.
And so I don't want to be loosey with the football. We'll see.

Speaker 60 We're taping this. The The Rules Committee is about to meet here as we're taping this.
So we'll kind of know more, I guess, by the time this publishes.

Speaker 60 But it seems like Mike Johnson is willing to take one for the team, maybe take one for his speakership on this.

Speaker 60 Let's listen to what he said at a press conference yesterday on the Ukraine funding bill. You do the right thing and you let the chips fall where they may.

Speaker 60 I don't, if I operated out of fear over a motion to vacate, I would never be able to do my job.

Speaker 60 Look, history judges us for what we do. This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage.

Speaker 60 I could make a selfish decision and do something

Speaker 60 that's different, but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing.

Speaker 60 I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. I really do.
I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we've gotten that

Speaker 60 I believe Xi and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil. I think they're in coordination on this.
I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed.

Speaker 60 I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.

Speaker 60 To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall.

Speaker 60 This is a live fire exercise for me, as it is so many American families. This is not a game.
It's not a joke. We can't play politics of this.
We have to do the right thing.

Speaker 60 And I'm going to allow an opportunity for every single member of the House to vote their conscience and their will on this. And I think that's the way this institution is supposed to work.

Speaker 60 And I'm willing to take personal risk for that because we have to do the right thing. And history will judge us.
That's a change of tune, Ellie.

Speaker 60 I mean, you've been over there even following this more than me, but I haven't heard Mike Johnson sound like this in the time that he's been speaker.

Speaker 61 I think that's right. I mean, he definitely sounds different than he did as just Congressman Mike Johnson.
Sure.

Speaker 61 Now that he's in the role of speaker, though, I do think this is the first time that he's really speaking explicitly to the stakes of this moment.

Speaker 61 I mean, even calling himself earlier this week a wartime speaker, it was real escalation escalation in rhetoric on that one.

Speaker 60 A little eye-rolly.

Speaker 61 A little eye-rolly, but, and I take that point. I agree with you.
However, I do think that it also speaks to this moment and why we might be seeing a pivot from him.

Speaker 61 Whether or not it costs him his job, I don't know. I guess we'll see.

Speaker 61 I just talked to him, you know, minutes ago before they, when they opened the house floor, and I asked, are you trying to change the rules around a motion to vacate?

Speaker 61 And he sort of downplayed the idea being like, we're focused on the supplemental right now.

Speaker 61 I don't know if that's the right way to take it, given the fact that Marjorie Taylor Greene says she's not going to privilege her resolution until after and if after this foreign aid supplemental vote on Saturday.

Speaker 61 So we'll see. Maybe he waits too long and he ends up being motioned to vacated.
Maybe he gets McCarthy before he can change these rules.

Speaker 61 I don't know, but the rules are going to have to be changed at some point because however this plays out, you can't keep governing. That's what you want to call this.

Speaker 61 rigmarole that we've been in lately. You can't keep doing that with the rules as they are right now.
That's not sustainable.

Speaker 60 I want to hear more about the reactions from the crazies, but just really quick on Mike Johnson. Here's one thing that he said.
I just want to read the sentence.

Speaker 60 I can make a selfish decision and do something that's different, but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing.

Speaker 60 That right thing being making sure that these aid supplementals get up for a vote. He really could have kind of blamed the crazy caucus, right?

Speaker 60 And sort of done the hemming-hawing, and I think we should do it, but I've got to defer to my caucus. Like he probably could have gotten away with that, right?

Speaker 60 And he said, he has set this up specifically so that Democrats are going to have to be the ones that help bail him out. And I saw this morning, I was looking at this.

Speaker 60 If they do get this to the floor and through the rules committee over the objections of Republicans, it'll be the first time since 95 that that has happened. And that didn't happen in 95.

Speaker 60 That's just when we started, they started measuring this. It hasn't happened in recorded memory.
That would be a pretty, I don't know, maybe overstated to call it brave, but bold move by Mike Johnson.

Speaker 60 No? I mean, out of character.

Speaker 61 I mean, he said he's hoping not to have to rely on Democrats to get the rule through.

Speaker 61 And like, here's the best way that I think about the rules, because I do get questions from people about this all the time, even people who are political junkies.

Speaker 61 Like, the House functions in a weird way.

Speaker 61 Basically, I think about the rule vote, both out of the committee and on the house floor, as like the bouncer that you have to pass through to actually get drinks in the bar, right?

Speaker 61 Like, you can't get a bunch of people.

Speaker 60 Is this like the Berlin Club, though? Is this like the Berlin Club where the bouncer just looks at your outfit and decides if you can get in?

Speaker 61 No, I think this is a strict idea. You have to pass the test.
Yes or no? It is very strict here.

Speaker 61 But look, the fact that Democrats are even considering this, I think, speaks to why Johnson had to change his tactic in the first place.

Speaker 61 I am not someone who buys into the Hail Mary pass of discharge petitions.

Speaker 61 Democrats have tried this time and again, and they've never amounted to anything, but they had a discharge petition brewing on the Senate supplemental, which is basically what this is, except Johnson wants to do this piece by piece as opposed to voting on it all together.

Speaker 61 But they've had this brewing and they've been asking explicitly this week in their Democratic caucus meetings, hey, use your personal relationships with Republicans.

Speaker 61 Get them to sign on to this discharge petition. Maybe because they have trust issues over whether or not this is actually going to come to the floor.

Speaker 61 And I have to say, there are Republicans who really, really want this vote. And I know we often talk about the hardline conservatives who are often the thorn in the side.

Speaker 61 But at some point, maybe, I don't know, moderates decide that they have just as much sway here and could have gone the other way.

Speaker 60 Yeah, Mike Lawler and that. Again, yeah.
So that's the interesting thing about this. Lawler, McCall.
Yeah. Yeah.
That Johnson hasn't forced them to do that, though. Right.

Speaker 60 Like, Johnson could have played this in a way that's like, you guys have to do that over my dead body to help me survive.

Speaker 60 And if this comes up in a vote today, that's the interesting thing about the rules. Like, if it happens so that who are the three? It's Norman, Roy, and Nassew that are on the rules committee.

Speaker 60 If the three Republicans and the Freedom Caucus sent out a letter that was like comparing Johnson to Boehner and Pelosi, that's not a winning place to be as a Republican speaker.

Speaker 60 So if those folks go against it, but the people you're talking about go for it. I had Moskowitz on the podcast.
Moskowitz said he would help.

Speaker 60 You know, if it turns out like that, that it happens, that's definitely interesting.

Speaker 60 And it's a change of tactic that puts Johnson, I guess you hate to hand it to the Freedom Caucus, but that does make Johnson more kind of like Boehner than what we expected.

Speaker 61 Yeah, I think that's right. I think Democrats think about him differently than they think about McCarthy.

Speaker 60 Why is that, do you think?

Speaker 61 You know, I don't know. I think I'm trying to remember what Dan Kildy said this morning, but it was something to the effect of like, he doesn't lie as much and he's a little bit less bad at the job.

Speaker 61 I don't know. Kildie said it much more funny than I ever would have.
But I do think that there's a view that Johnson is someone that they can work with.

Speaker 61 There are some Democrats who I've spoken to who will offer the reminder that he is anti-LGBTQ, that he is anti-a lot of the positions that progressives themselves espouse.

Speaker 61 But the people here who would call themselves, I think, institutionalists, who want to see this place just function, the bar is so low now that they'll pretty much do anything to make that happen.

Speaker 61 So I actually think, look, in the world where people like us, or at least me, love to see what strange political bedfellows can be made on policy and politics, I actually think that if we actually get a vote on these substantive bills, we're going to see some really weird vote totals because some Democrats won't vote for Israel and some will vote for Ukraine.

Speaker 61 And then there's the TikTok bill that also has maybe some border provisions in it.

Speaker 61 Like there are a lot of different things being lumped into this that could come up with some pretty strange ways of bipartisan pairing. At the end of the day, isn't that how this place should work?

Speaker 61 But it's not. I mean, that's the utopia, right?

Speaker 60 Yeah, I know. That sounds very bulwarky, actually.
Like, oh my God, holy cow, we could get some bipartisan foreign aid passed. Wow.
Like, things keep coming up bulwark. Okay.

Speaker 60 Just really quick on the crazies. Your word.

Speaker 60 My word, not yours. I wouldn't put it in your mouth.
You're a reporter. You know, you were over there during the McCarthy regular role and the Gates, and we had all the votes.

Speaker 60 And you can kind of sense the tension in the conference at that time.

Speaker 60 It's hard for me as an outsider to see right now, is that tension bubbling up to the same level when you hear from the Roys and the Masseys and the Gateses? Or is it a little bit performative?

Speaker 60 They feel like they have to say that they're against it, but they might let it slide. Like, how do you assess it?

Speaker 61 I actually think this is a very individual by individual basis. Like, Massey is the only one of that crew that's come out and explicitly said, I'm going to go the route of motion to vacate.

Speaker 61 I could go that route. I would co-sponsor it.

Speaker 61 Roy and Norman are different in that they do not like this approach and they have very powerful positions on rules that, frankly, several of their colleagues are calling for them to not have if they vote against this rule.

Speaker 61 So we'll keep an eye on that space.

Speaker 61 But they're not for, at least in my conversations with Ralph Norman, they're not for another motion to vacate and another cycle of just complete and total dysfunction.

Speaker 61 A, I think because everyone here recognizes like no one would get 218 or 216 if that's the magic number. No one is getting those votes.
So like, I don't even know where we would go.

Speaker 61 They were, they were scraping the barrel for names the last time around at the end of the year when they were looking for Mike Johnson to ultimately get this job.

Speaker 61 So I don't even know where that would put us if they were to do this again. That's why I think a lot of people don't know if it's real.

Speaker 61 But when you talk about the emotional aspect of this, yes, there are people who are very angry.

Speaker 61 Is it at the fever pitch that it was last year at Matt Gates and the rest of the folks who voted to oust McCarthy? No, not yet.

Speaker 61 But I'm also someone who thinks it could easily get there if more people keep piecemeal adding to Marjorie Taylor Greene's effort.

Speaker 60 Ralph Norman's like got to be the most interesting guy on the hill right now.

Speaker 60 He was at the January 6th or helped organize the January 6th rally, endorsed Nikki Haley, and is now going anti-Mike Johnson on this. Say what you want about Ralph Norman, I guess.

Speaker 60 He goes his own way. He marches the lead of his own drummer.

Speaker 61 I mean, look, I spent a lot of time with him when I was on the road with Nikki Haley because he was consistently out there.

Speaker 61 And I think on paper, for those of us who have watched him in Congress the last two years, especially, it's like, what do you have to do with this woman who is sort of espousing like a different way of being a Republican, even if on policy she is in line with a lot of the things that this Trump era has brought us?

Speaker 61 Certainly not on foreign policy, but like on a lot of of the domestic issues, certainly she's there. But it always seemed like a mismatch.

Speaker 61 But again, South Carolina political roots go deep, and that's what that was about. And again, I think that Ralph Norman, while he might vote against this rule,

Speaker 61 the idea that any of these hardline conservatives were ever going to support this foreign aid package, however you chop it up, chunk it up, or put it together, is just wrong.

Speaker 61 Like they were always going to have a problem with it, but they were also never going to vote for it.

Speaker 60 All right. Last question.
I'll let you go. What are you hearing from the Democrats on that weird fourth element to this? The TikTok ban, there's maybe border.
There's a Lend-a-Lease Act.

Speaker 60 There's like, it's all the stuff I like, actually. But it's just, it's a weird mishmatch.
What's the sense from the Democrats on that?

Speaker 61 I think this one's the wild card because I hung out with our friends at Way Too Early this morning filling in for our friend John Lemire.

Speaker 61 We had Jake Auchenklos on, who is a national security-minded Democrat, obviously a former Marine or a Marine himself. He never stopped being a Marine.

Speaker 61 And he was excited about the TikTok component of this. He was excited about the fact that Senator Maria Cantwell seemed on board with the fact that her version of this bill was in it.

Speaker 61 That might make it a sweetener over on the Senate side. But then the hangup, of course, is something like the border provision, because Democrats want to be careful about what this actually is.

Speaker 61 And if Republicans, again, speaks to the lack of trust, if Republicans are trying to sneak something in here, that's going to be the real wildcard, that fourth bill that sort of has the potpourri of issues of the day in it.

Speaker 61 Because I think at the end of it, there's probably more things that Democrats want to vote for in that than against. But one bad thing could outweigh all of the pretty good things.

Speaker 61 And that's the, you know, the balancing act that we're watching play out here. Because frankly, the other three bills, the Ukraine, the Israel, and the Indo-Pacific bills, are basically the same.

Speaker 61 as what they were in the Senate supplemental, except for like this loan forgiveness piece in the Ukraine thing that says you can't forgive the loan that we're giving Ukraine until after like mid-November of this year or something.

Speaker 60 Okay, I lied. One last really quick question for those of us that are not, don't understand the parliamentary procedure as well.
So do all four need to pass then to get to Senate?

Speaker 60 Like, or like, what would happen if they passed three and then that one failed?

Speaker 61 So this is actually, I think, one of the things that we do not yet know. In theory, all four of these bills are under the umbrella of that same, actually.

Speaker 61 Maybe we don't know this. I thought all four of these bills were under the same umbrella as, you know, each other, which means that they're governed under the same rule.

Speaker 61 But then there was talk about separating the border to be its own rule and its own vote. So I actually don't know how we're going to see this play out.

Speaker 61 I think maybe because it's still being figured out. And also, I think they're watching the rules committee right now pretty closely to see how that actually goes.

Speaker 60 Okay, we'll keep an eye on that. And if we if we have some clarity before this pod comes out, I'll pop on and do an intro.
Ali Vitali, thank you so much. Come back soon.
You're the best.

Speaker 61 I will. Thanks, Thanks, my favorite contributor.

Speaker 60 I appreciate you. We'll be back on the other side with Will Salatan.

Speaker 3 Get Ready for Malice, a twisted new drama starring Jack Whitehall.

Speaker 8 David DeCovney, and Carice Van Houten.

Speaker 11 Jack Whitehall plays Adam, a charming manny infiltrates the wealthy Tanner family with a hidden motive to destroy them.

Speaker 17 This edge-of-your-seat revenge thriller unravels a deliciously dark mystery in a world full of wealth, secrets, and betrayal.

Speaker 23 Malice will constantly keep you on your toes.

Speaker 24 Why is Adam after the Tanner family?

Speaker 13 What lengths will he go to?

Speaker 27 One thing's for sure: the past never stays buried, so keep your enemies close.

Speaker 30 Watch Malice, all episodes now streaming exclusively on Prime Video.

Speaker 35 California has millions of homes that could be damaged in a strong earthquake.

Speaker 40 Older homes are especially vulnerable to quake damage, so you may need to take steps to strengthen yours.

Speaker 43 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com to learn how to strengthen your home and help protect it from damage.

Speaker 49 The work may cost less than you think and can often be done in just a few days.

Speaker 52 Strengthen your home and help protect your family.

Speaker 55 Get prepared today and worry less tomorrow.

Speaker 58 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com.

Speaker 5 Get ready for Malice, a twisted new drama starring Jack Whitehall, David DeCovney, and Carice Van Houten.

Speaker 11 Jack Whitehall plays Adam, a charming manny infiltrates the wealthy Tanner family with a hidden motive to destroy them.

Speaker 17 This edge-of-your-seat revenge thriller unravels a deliciously dark mystery in a world full of wealth, secrets, and betrayal.

Speaker 23 Malice will constantly keep you on your toes.

Speaker 24 Why is Adam after the Tanner family?

Speaker 13 What lengths will he go to?

Speaker 27 One thing's for sure, the past never stays buried, so keep your enemies close.

Speaker 30 Watch Malice, all episodes now streaming exclusively on Prime Video.

Speaker 35 California has millions of homes that could be damaged in a strong earthquake.

Speaker 40 Older homes are especially vulnerable to quake damage, so you may need to take steps to strengthen yours.

Speaker 43 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com to learn how to strengthen your home and help protect it from damage.

Speaker 49 The work may cost less than you think and can often be done in just a few days.

Speaker 52 Strengthen your home and help protect your family.

Speaker 55 Get prepared today and worry less tomorrow.

Speaker 58 Visit strengthenyourhouse.com.

Speaker 60 All right, we are back by Popular Demand with Will Salatan, writer at the bulwark. This is also the last day to vote for his podcast in the Webby's, The Corruption of Lindsey Graham.

Speaker 60 He's currently in the lead for Popson. Stop the Count Award.
Stop the Count.

Speaker 60 Stop the Count.

Speaker 60 Will, I know that you'll cherish a Webby, and we appreciate all the listeners that are voting for you. We'll put a link in the show notes so you can vote as well.
How are you doing, brother?

Speaker 60 Good, good. You sat in and listened to my convo with Allie.
She's one of the best reporters on the hill on this stuff and just a workhorse and knows what's happening.

Speaker 60 But, you know, being a reporter sometimes limits your ability to editorialize. I'm interested in your take on this Mike Johnson Saul to Damascus thing on Ukraine that's happening right now.

Speaker 60 That's pretty astonishing. Who knows? Maybe he'll wimp out.
Maybe he'll revert to being Saul again any minute, but I don't know. What do you think?

Speaker 62 So this makes me think back, dude. Remember when Kevin McCarthy went down?

Speaker 62 It was like three weeks the Republicans were trying to get a speaker, and they cycled through just about everybody, and they ended up with Johnson.

Speaker 62 And you and I were both like, who the hell is Mike Johnson? Right. He was like deputy undersecretary for.

Speaker 60 I'd seen a single Mike Johnson speech. It wasn't even really a speech.
I'd seen a single thing of Mike Johnson. I was like, hmm, that's a weird character.

Speaker 62 Remember who was right before Mike Johnson? Jim Jordan was right before that, right? And so Jim Jordan couldn't quite get there. And then we ended up with Mike Johnson.

Speaker 62 That turned out to be pretty consequential because Jim Jordan is basically an isolationist. And Mike Johnson is a Reagan Republican on foreign policy.

Speaker 60 Pretending to be an isolationist.

Speaker 62 His heart is there. He, you know, the way he talks about like, if we don't stop Putin, he's going through the rest of Europe.

Speaker 62 Anyway.

Speaker 60 Every once in a while, it'll sound like Kinzinger or Bill Kristol or something. And then all of a sudden he reverts.
I don't know. It's very strange.
But you can tell it's in there.

Speaker 60 There's like a little hint of something. Yeah.
There's a little hint of Reagan in there somewhere.

Speaker 62 I think that historically could turn out to be an important moment. Then the next question, of course, is, is he willing to fall on his sword? Is he willing to die for this?

Speaker 62 And he's got the whole Christian thing going on. Like this is all about what's right and wrong.

Speaker 62 And look, when he gets to stuff like anti-gay, you're like, the Christian stuff doesn't really help there.

Speaker 62 But when he believes that the right thing to do is to, you know, save Ukraine, he's the kind of guy who seems willing to like take a sacrifice for that.

Speaker 62 And he talks about his, that was so weird yesterday. He talked about his place in history.
And we'd like members of Congress, we'd like speakers to think that way, wouldn't we?

Speaker 62 Like, I'm going to do the right thing. Like this bill, getting this passed, saving this country, stopping this aggression is more important than my job.

Speaker 62 We'd love for members of Congress to think that way. And God bless him, Mike Johnson seems to be doing that.

Speaker 60 Maybe there's a Mike Pence element of this. Again, like it's like plenty to criticize.
So please, this is not hagiography and it's six months late. But go back to that line I read to Ali.

Speaker 60 I can make a selfish decision and do something that's different, but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing. You know, it could be bluster, right? It could be fake moralizing.

Speaker 60 There's plenty of people that do fake moralizing.

Speaker 60 But if it turns out that he really jams this thing through with Democrats and faces potentially getting overthrown in his speakership and conceivably, it could end up making him more powerful also, right?

Speaker 60 Because like, let's say he jams it through, and these guys fail in their motion to vacate, which is also possible. He could end up coming out of this.

Speaker 60 It's sort of like, why don't more people try this? This is one of my biggest frustrations the last nine years.

Speaker 60 If he follows through on this, there seem like some pretty big upsides, both for policy and politics, as eternal soul, all across the board. It feels like it could be working for him.

Speaker 62 Let me pull on that eternal soul theme for a minute.

Speaker 62 People who believe this, people who believe that they're part of some some large thing, God's plan or whatever, they can be appealed to to do this large thing that ends their career because they believe that's going to last into eternity.

Speaker 62 Did they do the right thing in the story? Like a biblical character, right? If Mike Johnson sees himself that way, that's good.

Speaker 62 And speaking for myself, I can't speak for you on this, but maybe you would agree with me.

Speaker 62 I think it's really important for those of us who want conversions like you were for Trump, you know, now you like Chris Christie. At the end of Chris Christie's career, he does the right thing.

Speaker 62 He turns against Trump.

Speaker 60 Did you have to pick Chris Christie as the example?

Speaker 60 I think I'm going to agree with you, but you picked an example that's going to make it really hard for me. But go ahead, finish your thought.

Speaker 62 Okay, good, good.

Speaker 62 We should make it hard to test the proposition. We should let people be remembered for the last thing they did, if it was the right thing.
I understand all of what Chris Christie did going into this.

Speaker 62 So if Mike Johnson ends his career as speaker, by getting the money to Ukraine and at least preventing them from collapsing, which seems to be what's going on in a lot of the front over there.

Speaker 62 God bless him. And I'm willing to forgive and not forget, but to forgive a lot of what he did before that.
And I want to incentivize that.

Speaker 62 I want the people who come after Mike Johnson to say, you know, I may have been a cynical character here and there in my career, but here is a great way to go out.

Speaker 62 And instead of like the Kevin McCarthy character where you're always conniving to stay in power, have people be willing to say, this bill, this thing I'm going to do right now, probably will cost me my career, might might cost me my career, but it doesn't end the history of me.

Speaker 62 It makes the history of me. It is the headline in the history of me.
I did the right thing.

Speaker 60 I also think maybe it's sometimes okay to look at these things more in micro examples. I mean, some of my friends that work for campaigns that give me shit.

Speaker 60 They're like, oh, you're going to shit on my person constantly, right? Like, I had a friend that went and he meekly informed me that he was going to work for DeSantis' super PAC.

Speaker 60 It's not like it would have been helpful for the bulwark to compliment Ron DeSantis. There are always all these demands, like, why aren't you nicer to Ron DeSantis? You really hate Trump.

Speaker 60 Like, the nicest thing I can do to Ron DeSantis is talk about how crazy he is. So maybe the crazies will be like, oh, okay.
If the never-Trumpers hate him that much, he might be pretty good.

Speaker 60 Anyway, point being, I always said, look, if Ron DeSantis does the right thing one time, I'll say it.

Speaker 60 I'm for that on incentivizing that way. Does that change their character? Does it change the life story for me of Chris Christie? Is Chris Christie's headline that he did the right thing this year?

Speaker 60 Maybe if he really goes for it, maybe he can earn earn it, right? But to me, his headline might still be what he did in 2016. But like, that doesn't mean we can't say, hey, good on you, chap, right?

Speaker 60 This was good. This was meaningful.
Humans are complicated. We all make choices that are good and bad.
We all have angels and devils, right? In this case, you did the right thing and good on you.

Speaker 60 No caveats. And I would like to be able to say that about Mike Johnson next week.
We'll see.

Speaker 62 Look, I understand your point that when this is all written, do we really want to forgive and forget? Maybe not. But in terms of actually having an effect in the present,

Speaker 62 leaving open the possibility that somebody who has done the wrong thing a hundred times might do the right thing, even for reason of some quirk that they, you know, happened, you know, I always remember, who is it, Rob Portman, found out his son was gay and suddenly like changed his position on the issue.

Speaker 62 And I had people telling me, like, don't forgive this guy. And I'm like, look, this one thing happened in this guy's life that made him do the right thing.
And that's great.

Speaker 62 And here is a thing which is going to be, it has not yet decided what happens in Ukraine.

Speaker 62 And if Mike Johnson can be incentivized to do the right thing this one time, I am for any portrayal of him that gets that done. And then we can settle historical accounts later.

Speaker 60 Same. And by the way, on the Rob Portman situation, some people have gay sons and don't do the right thing.
So just

Speaker 60 I always was like, okay. I mean, yeah, I guess it helped him that he had that experience, but that still took courage.
I mean, shoot, he came up for gay marriage before a lot of Democrats did.

Speaker 60 Okay, here's somebody that I don't think is ever going to do the right thing. After that, kind of moral hand-wringing over how to judge someone, how to handle complicated people.

Speaker 60 Here's an uncomplicated person, Marjorie Taylor Greene. I don't know if you've seen this.
I literally thought it was a spoof. This is where AI is going to make our lives hard.

Speaker 60 Somebody posted onto Twitter. screenshots of two amendments that Marjorie Taylor Greene had filed.

Speaker 60 The first one was calling for all members who vote for Ukraine aid to conscript in the Ukrainian army. I don't think she knows what the word conscript means, but that was one.

Speaker 60 The other one that was literally what made me think it was a spoof said that Israel aid will be used instead for the development of space laser technology on the southern border.

Speaker 60 That's real. So I saw both those and I was like, that's not real.
The person linked to them. It's like, okay, it's real.
She's filed three more amendments since then.

Speaker 60 Amendment to the Ukraine aid bill. All the money in the bill is reduced to zero and instead provided to Hawaii and East Palestine, Ohio.

Speaker 60 Another one: no Ukraine aid can be expended until Ukraine closes all their bio-laboratories. This is Russian propaganda.

Speaker 60 That's not real. And lastly, she wants to use the money to start deporting people.
So Mike Johnson said he's going to have an open amendment process.

Speaker 60 So I guess in the people's house, we're going to have to vote on these very serious amendments. Any of those sound good to you? No.

Speaker 60 But

Speaker 62 you know, we know that she's got this bugaboo about Ukraine. you know, wants to zero it out and she buys this garbage about biolabs and Zelensky and all that.

Speaker 62 Her district is what, Trump plus 37 or something. I forget what it is.

Speaker 62 You can't get rid of her in her district.

Speaker 60 You can Madison Cawthorne her. That's maybe the right way.
Like a MAGA person,

Speaker 60 but it would be really tough. They again gay baited Madison Cawthorne and he like had a lot of weird personal issues.

Speaker 60 It's probably, it's really hard to get rid of her, but you'd need somebody that's like, that would be totally unacceptable to you and me. You know, you would need a MAGA person to primary her.

Speaker 62 So, okay, Tim, you know how this works.

Speaker 62 I don't really know this world, but like, you know, Kevin McCarthy has this revenge pact pact going where he's like trying to, trying to take down everybody who voted against him.

Speaker 62 So there are smart people who operate in what now passes for the middle, the mainstream, the leadership of the Republican, like the House Republicans.

Speaker 62 Some of them have got to be targeting, how can we get rid of her, right? She's the one who's like got the motion to vacate bug and, you know, she's constantly, they're working with a small margin.

Speaker 62 Even if they win some seats this fall, which they probably won't. They'd love to have a hook to get her.
Ukraine is not it, right?

Speaker 62 You're not going to like find like a pro-Ukraine candidate in that district who's going to run on that issue. But Israel, this Israel thing, it sounds like a joke.

Speaker 62 Is that amendment a joke or is she totally serious about that?

Speaker 60 Is it like some kind of troll throwback to her Jewish space lasers? I don't know.

Speaker 60 I got to tell you, sometimes I get called to be on liberal podcasts and stuff where they're like, help us understand what's happening. And it's getting harder and harder for me.

Speaker 60 You know, I can do my best in certain cases.

Speaker 60 There's certain things where I have expertise, where I know these people, but getting inside the head of Marjorie Marjorie Taylor Greene is a task too large for me.

Speaker 60 So I don't know if that one's a joke or not. Maybe the Israel aid.

Speaker 60 And I also just don't know that the military aid to Israel is

Speaker 60 the hook for beating somebody in a primary either. I think it's going to be kind of split.

Speaker 60 And there are going to be some people that very strongly want Israel aid in the conservative base and the evangelical base, but I don't know. I don't know that that's going to be a deal breaker.

Speaker 62 Well, I was kind of hoping that Israel would be the hook because I think she's cast some votes also that have put her

Speaker 62 in a position where you could run somebody to the right of her on Israel. You know, you always wonder how the new Republican isolationism intersects with the old Republican support for Israel.

Speaker 62 You know, on Russia, of course, the isolationists seem to be winning. But on Israel, don't send money to Israel.
We need to protect our own border. Is that really becoming a thing?

Speaker 60 A little bit. I think that younger, right? This is something that people misunderstand, like the MAGAization of the party is kind of inverse, right?

Speaker 60 The older voters, Mike Johnson isn't that old, but he said this. He's like, I'm a child of the 80s.
He said this in the Jake Tapper interview, right?

Speaker 60 Like I still believe in the Reagan peace through strength. So that's good.
You can use that. You can work with those people.

Speaker 60 The younger folks, so the TP USA, for example, I thought this was super interesting. They polled their members, Turning Point USA, and the guy gave it to me.
And I was out there reporting on it.

Speaker 60 And he showed me the poll. And it was like, should we give aid to Ukraine, financial aid? And it was like 397 or something.
Like nobody thought we should. Israel was like 50-50.

Speaker 60 I thought that was interesting. It was more for military aid, but like financial aid.
Should we provide aid to Israel? And it was kind of like, okay, is that number headed towards three?

Speaker 60 Or is this really a 50-50 split on something like Israel? And I just think that's kind of a TBD, you know, because Ukraine started at 50-50.

Speaker 60 Right? We had a many podcasts. You and Charlie are out here talking about this.
It's like, what's going to happen with the Republican base? It's interesting.

Speaker 60 Like the big, the Tucker Carlsons, a lot of influencers were out there saying we shouldn't help them. But the voters were kind of split.

Speaker 60 And now that, you know, slowly but surely, the voters have moved more into the Trump-Tucker camp. Would that happen on Israel? I don't know.
Israel, there's a lot more depth of relationship there.

Speaker 60 There's the religious element. I don't know that it's going to go the same trajectory, but you can see it moving that way slightly, I think.

Speaker 62 Yeah, I wonder if I were in Israel, Israel obviously watches U.S. politics a lot, and they want to have hooks in both parties.

Speaker 62 And if I were in the Israeli government or just an Israeli citizen, I might be worried about what's going to happen to the Republican Party in the United States and whether the isolationism that has already corrupted the party on Europe will also corrupt it on Israel.

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Speaker 60 While we're on anti-Semitism, you've been digging in on Alejandro Mayorkis and that impeachment. So we'll get to that next.

Speaker 60 But while we're on Israel, I'm going to listen to an audio, some audio from Capitol Hill yesterday. There was a hearing on anti-Semitism.

Speaker 60 They brought the head of Columbia to try to do a rehash of the successful hearing where the Republicans feel like they got a scalp of the Harvard and Penn presidents.

Speaker 60 So they brought the Columbia Columbia president through. Here is Congressman Rick Green of Georgia, Republican, in case you're wondering, speaking to the president of Columbia.

Speaker 60 I mean, maybe you should have a course, and you know, you don't have to believe it, but you know, the Bible is an incredible book.

Speaker 62 There's a lot of history there, and you don't have to believe it, but you need to know what's in there. Maybe you should have a course suggested for those who are having problems with all of this

Speaker 60 on the Bible and what's in the Bible and kind of what will happen if, you know, under the wrath of God.

Speaker 60 Oh my God.

Speaker 60 Yeah, that's really something, Will. I didn't even play you the whole thing.
Actually, that was Rick Allen. I think I said Rick Green.
You know, maybe it could be a cousin of Marjorie.

Speaker 60 Rick Allen of Georgia. He also asked the Columbia University president if she's worried about suffering the wrath of God.
Interesting stuff there in the House of Representatives.

Speaker 60 On the one hand, I think it speaks to your point that maybe there's some still old style religiosity in the Republican Party that's going to prevent them from going full isolationist on Israel.

Speaker 60 On the other hand, that's some weird shit.

Speaker 62 That is some very weird shit. I mean, the idea of like...
I'm sure this was true 150 years ago, but we, you know, to have people in Congress who believe in the Bible, literally things.

Speaker 62 I mean, look, I love the Bible. There's a lot of good lessons, but the Bible says things like if you mix fabrics, you know, your blood shall be on your own head.

Speaker 62 The idea that God's wrath is going to punish you for your policy on speech on a campus. Come on.

Speaker 62 And it degrades the larger issues, which is what are the boundaries of free speech in the context of university? What counts as anti-Semitism? What is just anti-Israel? What is anti-Jewish?

Speaker 62 These are like serious issues. This wrath stuff is just not representing anybody well.

Speaker 60 No. And it also just speaks to the unseriousness of what is happening in these oversight hearings, which is related to my orchids.
The campus anti-Semitism stuff, I take very seriously.

Speaker 60 And sometimes I mock some of the most absurd right-wing arguments related to it because they are mockable and they deserve to be mocked.

Speaker 60 I think they undermine, like you're saying, the legitimate concerns. But I still think sometimes we need to have a little perspective about what's actually happening with the youth.

Speaker 60 And there's a Harvard poll out. this morning that I think is interesting.

Speaker 60 The question that they ask is kind of weird, but they ask whether or not they believe Israel's response so far to the October 7 attack by Hamas has been justified.

Speaker 60 And justified is an interesting word because I'm like, when I'm thinking about that, I would kind of answer that question. I think, yes, I think it's justified.

Speaker 60 But if you used a different word, like, has it been proportional? Like, maybe I would have. So anyway, that said, 45% said they didn't know.
21% said justified. 32% said not justified.

Speaker 60 I think it's like a very different picture of the youth than you're hearing and some of this stuff. I think there's definitely some anti-Semitism on campus.

Speaker 60 There's definitely a trendy kind of anti-Israel sentiment on social media. But I don't know.
Maybe the kids are all right a little bit on this.

Speaker 60 I think that's a pretty rational response, that breakdown. What say you?

Speaker 62 Yeah, so to me, the most interesting number that you read off was the don't knows. That was 45%, right? This is a Harvard poll, right? Yeah.
But it's done by Ipsos.

Speaker 62 There's another poll that has Harvard's name on it, right? The Harvard Caps-Harris poll, which is a Mark Penn poll.

Speaker 60 Yeah, that's crap. Right.
These guys are good. The Harvard Youth Poll guys.

Speaker 62 Harvard needs to get its name off the Mark Penn poll.

Speaker 62 But here you see a difference in methodology because one of the things that the Mark Penn poll does is they eliminate all the don't-knows when they report the numbers.

Speaker 62 So imagine if they took that breakdown you just gave me and inflated both sides of it, right? And made it what would it be?

Speaker 60 Right, it would be like 65, 35 or something, probably 60.

Speaker 62 Saying not justified, right? Yeah. And so that's a completely different read.
When you put the don't-knows in there, you get the nuanced portrait.

Speaker 62 These kids are like, wait a minute, what do I, you know, it's complicated. Those are people who are saying what you're saying, right?

Speaker 62 Like, well, I sort of think it's right because of what happened on October 7th, but they kind of went overboard. And so I'm going to say don't know.

Speaker 62 You got to give people space in polling to express nuance, at least give them a don't know, and at least publish those numbers.

Speaker 60 Yeah, I agree. It's interesting.

Speaker 60 I've been trying to get a couple other guests on the campus anti-Semitism stuff because I think it's interesting.

Speaker 60 I think that there's some really bad stuff happening that is worth discussing and exploring, but I also think it's a more complicated picture than sometimes people want to paint all right majorkis it's been hard for me to care about this i gotta say you know i've got to care about so much david sanger had me you know reading about the history of china yesterday and so i'm doing my best uh here and so occasionally i see something in the news and i'm just like i don't care about this anymore the maorkis impeachment was to me preposterous from the start i went to the senate i did notice yesterday that both Murkowski and Collins voted for the conviction, which was pretty disappointing, but they they didn't really seem to have a real trial.

Speaker 60 It's a party line thing. You've been following this more closely.
What say you about

Speaker 60 what's been happening over there with regards to the oversight, so to speak, of Alejandro Mayarchis?

Speaker 62 Murkowski and Collins didn't vote for, they voted to continue and have a trial.

Speaker 60 That's an important clarification.

Speaker 62 The Democrats were trying to dismiss it up front. So this was just to have, and Romney, you know, like there is an argument for having the trial.

Speaker 60 Just really quick, actually, because I want to get this right. So the vote was kind of like in the Trump impeachments, right? You vote on whether the Senate is going to take this.

Speaker 60 The House has passed an impeachment. The Senate decides whether to take it up and whether we have an actual trial and then create some rules around when the trial is, right?

Speaker 60 Like that's how the process goes. And the Democrats are saying, let's dump this.
There were some Republicans

Speaker 60 I thought were saying, let's table it. And then there were others saying, let's take it up, right? That was basically how it broke down.
Okay.

Speaker 62 So what they're required to do, what the Senate's required to do is to meet as a court of impeachment. But what they do from that point on is up to them.

Speaker 62 And Schumer just basically said, we're going to dismiss this thing because it's garbage. And it is garbage.

Speaker 62 And so then there were a series of motions that Republicans did to try to end run that, to like we'll table this, postpone that, change this. And then you have party line votes on all that stuff.

Speaker 62 But all of it was about whether to have a more serious trial where you hear all the evidence. And the Democrats prevailed, and they prevailed because they were right.

Speaker 62 This impeachment was one of those impeachments that says more about the impeacher than the impeache, right?

Speaker 62 I mean, Mayorkis was not guilty of anything that they accused him of, but it was absurd that they did this. And it's a reflection of how dysfunctional the Republican Party is.

Speaker 62 The articles of impeachment, for people who haven't followed this, were there were two of them. One was claiming that Mayorkis had refused to comply with the law.

Speaker 62 And the second one was that he had lied to Congress, okay?

Speaker 62 The refusal to comply with the law was basically some policy differences that Republicans had with Mayorkis, and they just decided to criminalize those and make it an impeachment thing.

Speaker 62 And by the way, they had all these hearings with Maorkis, and he would come in and they would say, you're not doing what the law requires. And Maorkis would say, yes, I am.

Speaker 62 And he would explain his position. And okay, if you don't like that, Republicans, you can sue to like say the DHS is not complying with the law.
And there were suits about this, right?

Speaker 62 And then you let the courts decide it. You don't impeach the guy over it.
Then they said he's lying to Congress. What were the lies, Tim? What were the awful lies?

Speaker 62 I recommend everyone read the articles of impeachment. He said the border was secure.
He used the word secure. He said the border was closed.
He said that we had operational control and we didn't.

Speaker 62 I mean, okay, like you can argue that that wasn't true. Then you're arguing about the meaning of things.
Like, did Michael Brown do a heck of a job?

Speaker 62 You know, was mission accomplished in Iraq, you know, in 2003? Okay, these things weren't true, but they're like interpretive things. It was absurd that they impeached him.

Speaker 60 You probably could have got some Democrats voting to impeach W over mission accomplished, the mission accomplished banner.

Speaker 60 I don't know if it would have passed the House of Representatives, but you probably could have got some Democrats to vote for that.

Speaker 62 Yeah. And then they said he had this scheme, and they quote from this guidance he issued about how to enforce the border in like 2021.
And like, this is some secret document.

Speaker 62 Tim, this was like a published thing. He said, here's how we're going to enforce this.
We have too many people coming in. The point is.

Speaker 62 All of the problems that Majorkis has at the border could be solved by increasing border enforcement, supplying more agents, more judges, right? And like tightening things like asylum standards.

Speaker 62 The Republicans had legislation in front of them that, you know, James Langford had helped negotiate, and they refused because, Tim, they don't want to solve the problem.

Speaker 62 They want to stage garbage like this theater of impeaching Maorkis.

Speaker 60 The whole thing is ridiculous. There's no precedent for it.
There hadn't been a cabinet secretary impeached since somebody that like literally stole money. It was like an actual bootlegger.

Speaker 60 I don't remember the exact story I read a couple months ago, but it's from the 1800s.

Speaker 60 The whole thing is silly. I think that the Biden administration has some failures on the border.

Speaker 60 Marcus has maybe not been the best cabinet secretary of all time, but we don't impeach cabinet secretaries for being bad. There have been a lot of bad cabinet secretaries.

Speaker 60 We could go down the list of the Trump cabinet and Obama had a couple of duds and

Speaker 60 Bush had some duds. We could go back through John Ashcroft.

Speaker 60 It's just stupid. The whole thing is stupid.
But part of the reason to me is what it says is going back to the Mike Johnson thing.

Speaker 60 these guys can't govern right they need democrats to govern what can they do they can virtue signal you know they also passed a thing condemning from the river to the sea palestine will be free and so it's like they can condemn people they can finger wag they can name post offices that's what the republican majority can do right so that's why that's what they did Tim, that is the core of the whole thing.

Speaker 62 And this extends to so many other issues. Like take immigration.
No one is representing the Tim Miller position. And I share it, right? This is an issue where we actually need a conservative party.

Speaker 62 We need a party that says there's too many people coming to the border. We can't handle it.
It's chaos.

Speaker 62 Whatever you think of immigration in general, this kind of immigration is like people abusing the asylum system. We need to tighten the standards.
We need more enforcement.

Speaker 62 And the Republican Party ought to be doing that. They're not doing that because you just nailed the important point.
That involves governing. That involves compromising.

Speaker 62 Lankford tried to do it and they said, no, no, because we just want the issue. And instead, you get this theater.
So you have a liberal party, which the Democrats are.

Speaker 62 And then you don't have a conservative party. You have this non-governing, virtue-signaling, Fox News theater party.
And we're not going to have a healthy country.

Speaker 62 And we're certainly not going to solve this issue until we have a real conservative party.

Speaker 60 And there are a handful of conservatives that are like border security only, but none of them are serious.

Speaker 60 Like, there's really nobody that is representing the real Tim Miller position, which is like, the Gang of Eight bill was great.

Speaker 60 Like, we had a lot of people representing my decision back then like let's give the dream like it is crazy when i was with my younger brother it was bachelor party i was there with one of his friends he's quite a bit younger than me and so this person is in the late 20s or early 30s and they had a friend that's a dreamer and it's like kind of crazy to think about that right like it's been so long that like dreamers are in their 30s and are still going through this where like they are not permanent residents they don't have a green card right like and like these sorts of deal making we're not talking about people like oh you know the least sympathetic migrants, right?

Speaker 60 Like, we're not talking about that. We're talking about people that were brought to this country that are really young.
Like, they've been here now for 30 years. They have jobs.
They're paying taxes.

Speaker 60 Right. And so, can we not cut a deal where we give them

Speaker 60 some stability in exchange for more judges, some more security? I don't know about the space lasers on the border, but somehow, right? Like,

Speaker 60 there's like literally nobody. represent There are a handful of Democrats that basically reflect that position, but not that many.

Speaker 60 Like there aren't that many Democrats that are out there actually, you know, trying to push the compromise side of it.

Speaker 62 You know, part of the tragedy is the people who think like you, they're leaving.

Speaker 62 A lot of them left.

Speaker 62 Like, they look at what's going on. They're like, we have no future here.
They're the problem solvers kind of people.

Speaker 62 And if we bring this back to Mike Johnson for a minute, it would be awesome if Mike Johnson had to rely on Democratic votes to survive a motion to vacate.

Speaker 62 If you had the beginnings of some cross-partisan cooperation, if only under duress, if only to save Congress and keep it functional.

Speaker 62 And we have the perverse problem of he knows that if he gets any Democratic support, that's going to kill him on the right because everybody's so defined by opposing the other side.

Speaker 62 But I would love to see something trigger a little bit of bipartisanship because on an issue like the border, there is a lot of agreement and there was demonstrated in that border bill.

Speaker 60 You know, to be fair, I was a little gloomy about this. There are a couple of members that are really pushing for compromise on this and understanding.

Speaker 60 And just for one example, by by the way, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy is in the bulwark today with a op-ed about immigrants and American anxiety and how the left can address the immigration issue while also still being humane and true to their values.

Speaker 60 And of course, James Langford worked across the aisle on the Senate Bill. So there are some examples of this.
Okay, what else do we got here?

Speaker 60 Do you want to talk about Arizona or do we want to talk about Biden's tariff push?

Speaker 62 I'll just say one thing about Arizona. I'm totally shocked.

Speaker 60 Just really quick, actually, and I'll let you explain your shock, what happened.

Speaker 60 So yesterday, they tried to bring up a couple of bills to repeal the 1864 law that the pedophile guy signed when Arizona was a territory and when women couldn't vote. And the Republicans blocked it.

Speaker 60 The Republicans blocked it so that it couldn't be overturned, which is just insane because it wouldn't have overturned it to pre-row, actually.

Speaker 60 It would have overturned it to a 15-week ban that had already been passed. And the Republicans in the legislature in Arizona blocked it.
Crazy. Right.

Speaker 62 Crazy. By the way, just one side note about the pedophile guy.
Tim, you can understand why somebody like that would oppose women having the right to vote because his wife was 15.

Speaker 60 So if you, if you're 12,

Speaker 60 I think you had a 15-year-old and a 12.

Speaker 62 So if you're marrying minors, you know, you can sort of see how like, she's not of age yet.

Speaker 62 But seriously, Trump, Kerry Lake, people who are actually like looking at the politics of this issue know that you can defend the 15-week line. You can't defend a zero, particularly in Arizona.

Speaker 62 It's a Republican state in some ways. It's a purple state, but it's a libertarian state.
Like you're going to lose all those people.

Speaker 62 So it was a no-brainer that they should dump that law as fast as they could for the Republicans to get rid of it because it's a loser of an issue.

Speaker 62 And the Speaker of the House, Toma, seems to be like, no, no,

Speaker 62 we're going to hold on to this. If they hold on through November, then the pro-choice ballot measure will pass and Arizona will go from 15 to 24 weeks or go to viability.

Speaker 62 But even if they don't, they're out there gathering signatures for this ballot measure right now, right?

Speaker 62 And you can't possibly do more to boost the signature drive than to be like, yeah, you know, abortion is totally illegal, even for rape and incest in Arizona.

Speaker 62 Yeah, that's just going to juice the pro-choice side. And they've already lost, what, the governorship, the Senate seats.

Speaker 62 They're hanging on to margins of like two votes in the House in Arizona, the Republicans, and similar margin in the Senate.

Speaker 62 They're just going to be completely cleaned out in November if they don't get rid of this law.

Speaker 60 Yeah, and they're going to lose a couple of judges too. I just, it's a total unbelievable self-owning.
They could have also, just being Machiavellian about this, like gone on off it.

Speaker 60 Like they could have repealed it, tried to pass something else.

Speaker 60 They controlled the legislature and forced or tried to cut some deal where the repeal is tied to something else that's pretty draconian and made and made Katie Hobbs veto it.

Speaker 60 The wild-eyed freaks that are like being recruited to run for these offices and that are attracted to the Donald Trump-era Republican Party. Let's just be honest.
Donald Trump might have

Speaker 60 some kind of instinct, some kind of lizard instinct when it comes to abortion, but he's attracted the craziest possible people to the party.

Speaker 60 And the people that were already in the party who are crazy have been emboldened. And like you said, the people who are like, this is a little too much for me have left.

Speaker 60 So you end up this trickles down. Like this whole, the whole impact isn't just happening in the national conferences at the legislative level.
All right, last item, the Biden tariff push. Oof.

Speaker 60 So there's a policy and a political element here that are worth discussing. Biden is campaigning in Pennsylvania.
He's got an ad up. It's pretty good.

Speaker 60 It's not the best ad he's ran, but it's a steel worker, black steel worker, talking about the thing that I like about it is he's talking about how Donald Trump didn't do shit for them, which is true, which I think is a really good message for Biden to stick on.

Speaker 60 By that Trump talks populists, he talks like he cares about the forgotten man, but he doesn't. He only cares about himself.
I think that's a really potent message for Biden this year. So that's good.

Speaker 60 But they're tying it to like they're going to increase the tariff on steel from 7% to 25%.

Speaker 60 And maybe there's a lag on this, on what the consumer impact is going to be. But even still, in a time where you're still worried about high inflation,

Speaker 60 the policy here is pretty bad.

Speaker 60 What do you think about that whole offensive here from Biden with an ad, you know, putting some policy behind it with the tariffs, going to Pennsylvania, leaning in on, you know, the industrial Midwest?

Speaker 62 Well, so you and I are democracy people. Democracy, rule of law, that's the big issue here, right?

Speaker 62 And for Democrats, they seem to be, the Biden people seem to be betting, at least in Pennsylvania, and maybe the other blue wall states, they're going to do the same thing.

Speaker 62 Like, thank you very much about the democracy message. Yeah, we'll talk about that.
But if you look at polls, what you and I care about is not cutting enough.

Speaker 62 Maybe in Fulton County, you know, that'll, it'll make enough of a difference. I don't know.

Speaker 60 Yeah, sure. Philly burbs.
Hello. By the way, we got a live event coming in Philly, May 1st.
Go to thebulwark.com slash events. Come see us.
Yeah. Sorry, Will.

Speaker 62 Yeah, no, go see Tim. But in the Blue Wall states, they seem to be going with the class message.

Speaker 62 Like, you know, like we're for the common man, Trump's for the, and as you point out, I mean, the ad's got a lot of good stuff in there. And Trump really took care of his buddies, the billionaires.

Speaker 62 He's a country club guy. And that's all true.
Tariffs are not my favorite issue for a couple of reasons. One, a tariff is a tax.
It hits everybody who buys the product. So it's a regressive tax.

Speaker 62 I don't like them. I think this is a case where markets generally work.
The other reason is

Speaker 62 there used to be a division of xenophobia. between the two parties.

Speaker 62 The Republicans had like anti-immigrant xenophobia, you know, and the Democrats had trade xenophobia, which was like, and this goes back to Dick Epphard and like, you know, we're going to stick it to the Japanese.

Speaker 62 You could play on people's hatred of the Asians, right, by talking about tariffs. And what Trump did, when Trump came in, he was like, hey, why not both?

Speaker 60 I'm a xenophobic,

Speaker 62 like universal xenophobia. So like, I'm against immigrants and I'm against trade, right? And so that was a, that was a politically smart play, playing to the worst in people, but it was effective.

Speaker 62 And it looks to me, Tim, like Biden's just trying to take that back. Like your tariff is what percent? We're going to triple your tariff, you know?

Speaker 62 So the Democrats, I think, are going to use some of the xenophobia. Like, I don't have a problem with the anti-rich message.
Rich people can protect themselves.

Speaker 62 I don't like the attacking of ethnic angles.

Speaker 60 I hear you. I think that your broader case is correct.
I'd love that you mentioned the Japanese because it was the Japanese before the Chinese. And that was Trump.

Speaker 60 Like, Trump was still stuck on not liking Japan when he started the campaign in 2015, right? It was like,

Speaker 60 you know, he had to kind of switch it because his head is still stuck in like the 1980s New York tabloid. But yeah, I don't know if they're preying on xenophobia.

Speaker 60 The Biden campaign is so much as they're just trying to do the rah-rah American worker thing in a way that is a little cheap and not actually going to work and maybe hurt consumers a little bit on the margins.

Speaker 60 But I'm trying to have a

Speaker 60 Democrat who's very excited about this kind of Democratic populism come on the pod in the next few weeks. So I will argue about that with him, not with you, Will Salatan, since we basically agree.

Speaker 60 That was a great Thursday podcast.

Speaker 60 I'm looking forward to seeing what happens on the Hill. We'll be back tomorrow with one of our favorite friends of the Bloor podcast.
So make sure to check us out then. Thanks so much, Will Salatan.

Speaker 62 Thank you, Tim.

Speaker 60 Everybody else, we'll see you back here tomorrow. Peace.

Speaker 63 This is Ground Zillow, where I'm rising from the ashes.

Speaker 63 The first step on the road to Damascus.

Speaker 63 I redefine my narrative. I'm Frederick Douglass.

Speaker 63 Nah, I tell my guys I miss them, nandai conditions. Trying to survive in prison, praying they don't die in Dixon.
Bro said, send them some pics of me without straying bitches.

Speaker 63 Back in America, they treat us like we Aborigines. Original man, they tried to wipe out our history.
As if the first universities wasn't Egyptian. Lauren Hill said invest is just miseducation.

Speaker 63 And Section 8 is just modern day segregation. I'm drinking from the whites only front and the youth.
They heard the cage birds sing, so I bought me a coupe.

Speaker 63 Part of the roof, it can shine the summertime. When mama said be home before 10, I had my number nine.
Thugging outside with them hooligans, ditching school again.

Speaker 63 The rack was my holy land, like the tribe of Judanim. Persecuted at home, like Philistines and Hebronists.
I'm staring past the wall from a rooftop in Bethlehem.

Speaker 63 Remind me of the project calls in Lawless Gardens. It's the same if you go back to Africa, Marcus Garvey.
A people without knowledge is a tree without roots. I'm a walk in contradiction.

Speaker 63 I'm a sailor on boots. Mobbin', standing on the west side with chairman Fred Hampton.
About to catch a red eye back to to my bed in the mansion.

Speaker 63 Yeah, when the hip-hop turned into hip propaganda, oh, they killed Dr. Sebby, they make meals off of cancer.
Their businesses keep us addicted to pharmacists.

Speaker 63 So we're too preoccupied with prescriptions for politics. Give a mass incarceration, leave the children fatherless.
I'm the voice of a generation, we won't be silenced.

Speaker 60 The Bullers podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

Speaker 62 This is Michael Lewis from Against the Rules, the big short companion. This podcast is brought to you by FedEx, the new power move.

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