Bonus Episode: South Carolina Circus Special

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Speaker 1 Welcome to a bonus weekend at South Going to Primary Edition of the Bullwork Podcast. I'm Tim Miller.
I gathered the whole circus crew for the occasion. We got Jen Palmary.

Speaker 1 She was communications director for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Mark M.
Cat McKinnon was media advisor to W and McCain.

Speaker 1 John Heilman, national affairs analyst for NBC News, author of Game Change and Double Down, some other mysterious pursuits. Y'all, bring on the clowns.
So good to see you. Bring on the clowns.

Speaker 1 Most of them within the bounds of the law. Most.

Speaker 1 Most.

Speaker 1 We are taping this on Friday afternoon. So there's one potential problem with that is that the South Carolina primary hasn't happened yet.

Speaker 1 And some of our good listeners might listen on Sunday or Monday. But the good news is, I think we all know what's going to happen.

Speaker 1 Haley's going to get schlonged by about somewhere between 20 and 45 points. So before...

Speaker 1 Can we not say schlonged in this context when it's Donald Trump and Nikki Haley?

Speaker 3 You know, I think Barack Obama got in trouble for that

Speaker 1 once. Okay.
Right? Right.

Speaker 1 I apologize. Well, Nikki Haley's going to get beaten decisively between 20 and 45 points, I think.
We can all stipulate that before the convo, right? Memcat,

Speaker 1 do you want to offer a...

Speaker 18 Yeah, listen, I always thought that there should be something called the Al Gore rule, which is if you're running for president, you should have to win your home state, although Donald Trump changed that equation.

Speaker 1 But yeah,

Speaker 18 and this is just a testament to just how much the Republican primary has changed that she can't win in her home state.

Speaker 1 Can I just say one thing, though, about this? There's a data point that I just want to inject in this, which is I looked at this today. Please.

Speaker 1 Donald Trump has not had lower than a 20-point lead in South Carolina for the past year.

Speaker 1 There's like literally not a poll in one year in which he hasn't been at least, he's been between 20 and 40, a 20 to 40 point lead for a whole year.

Speaker 1 There's one poll back like in January of 2023 where he was only had like a 17-point lead. And every other poll, he's been between 20 and 40.
Yeah. He's got plenty of time.
No better time than now.

Speaker 1 No better time than present. Okay.
So given that, I thought it would be fun to, I gave you homework. I assume Heilman didn't do it, but we're going to start with him first.
I did it. And

Speaker 1 you did great. And the homework was, was if we had a circus this week, what would the show be called? And do you have a theme song for it? You get bonus grade points if you had a theme song.

Speaker 18 I have a theme and a song, and they're the same.

Speaker 1 What is it?

Speaker 18 Carolina in My Mind, James Taylor.

Speaker 1 Okay.

Speaker 1 A little, you know, that. Yes.

Speaker 3 It's a different Carolina.

Speaker 1 Is that right? Where was James Taylor singing about?

Speaker 3 North Carolina.

Speaker 1 North Carolina. But, you know.

Speaker 3 Yeah. Anyway.
I didn't know about the song. I got to like do some thinking.

Speaker 1 Okay. You can go last.
You have time to think about it. Heilman.
Thank you. I think that

Speaker 1 Jen palmary will definitely remember this mark mckinn will definitely remember this you tim as a student of history may remember this although you're too young to have experienced it but at the end of the of the at the end of the 1996 presidential campaign when uh when bill clinton with all of his problems was spanking bob dole there got to be a period in the last like week or so when dole was just so uh

Speaker 1 there were two things about the end of that campaign that were great one was at the end of long of the long day at like five o'clock whenever you were out on the road dole would cut his speech off at a certain moment.

Speaker 1 And because of the time that they had for the curfew at National Airport, he would go, I'm sorry, this speech is now over. National, here we come.

Speaker 1 And he'd run to the bus because he was just like, I'm done with that. I'm done with this shit.
I'm not going to have to stay in this place where I am.

Speaker 1 The other thing was he would, he would just burst out. He had these outbursts all the time.
He would say, Where is the outrage?

Speaker 1 Where is the outrage? Where is the outrage?

Speaker 1 Would be my episode title, because if you, if you think about what's the things that Trump has done and said in any other era in a South Carolina primary, you know, a South Carolina that is dominated by veterans and, you know, has been the idea that, you know, Donald Trump sucking up to Vladimir Putin, not saying boo about Navalny's assassination, trashing Nikki Haley's husband, who's an actively deployed military person, there'll be out.

Speaker 1 I mean, you know, he has just been an

Speaker 1 self-aggrandizing, Putin-stroking gibberish

Speaker 1 and perfidy. And yet no one gives a fuck in South Carolina.
It doesn't give a fuck. Nothing's changing in that race.
She's hitting him harder

Speaker 1 and trying to gin up the outrage and is getting nowhere. There's no traction for it whatsoever.
And so that's Where's the Outrage would be my title, would be my episode title.

Speaker 1 And my theme song for it would be, Tim, this is right for you for reasons you'll understand in a moment.

Speaker 1 Would be a classic song by the Pet Shop Boys called Being Boring, which

Speaker 1 pretty much describes the entire Republican primary. I could give that, that'd be a half-season or overarching theme song.
Yeah. So boring.

Speaker 1 Could you imagine doing this show every week? What are you going to talk about?

Speaker 1 It's the most flaccid, lifeless, sad, deflated presidential campaign I've ever seen, covered, or hoped to ever witness again in my life. It is fair, though.

Speaker 1 I could, just before I get to you, Jen, it is like the Where is the Outrage? And this is a very bulwarky pick, so it also fits for this podcast. Where is the outrage? Because

Speaker 1 it's

Speaker 1 hard to really kind of imagine that everyone has just gotten in line.

Speaker 1 And when I think about that episode title, I would point it more towards, you know, the kind of Republican establishment figures that just gave in right this time.

Speaker 1 You know, you have your Tim Scott, and you can remember the South Carolina primary of 16. We have Marco and Haley and Scott all campaigning together.
I mean, they could have at least tried to try.

Speaker 1 You know, in the last week, Mike Gallagher just quit Congress. I mean, like the types of people that should be outraged are just either giving in or giving up.
It's pretty, it's pretty remarkable.

Speaker 18 By the way,

Speaker 18 I have a real uh vision of that primary um and a spectacularly visual evening when uh haley endorsed rubio

Speaker 18 uh there and it was so cinematic and they look both look so young and energetic and i just thought man if this is the face of the republican party

Speaker 1 every single major republican elected official in south carolina except i think one congressman right is backing uh Trump.

Speaker 1 Alvin Norman, who's an insurrectionist. Who's an insurrectionist, yeah, who somehow is still with Haley.
I don't really understand that. That's one one of the great mysteries of our time.

Speaker 1 But it's amazing that the whole South Carolina political establishment is just behind Trump.

Speaker 1 And it does, and they don't, I mean, I'm standing out there by the USS Yorktown looking at, I'm thinking about all the events I've been to with Republican candidates on that.

Speaker 1 And all of them, because it's all about the military there. It's all veterans, active duty military.
And John Kerry.

Speaker 3 That's where John Kerry announced his president. He did.

Speaker 1 That's exactly right. But Republicans just always go there.
Like every Republican, Ted Cruz,

Speaker 1 Rand Paul announced his campaign there. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, they all do events out there.
It's like the most trafficked venue in the state for this good reason. It's

Speaker 1 one of the most military states in the country. And Trump has just been like just shitting on the military in every way imaginable.
And no one cares.

Speaker 1 Except for the people who already cared, the people who are already against Trump. They're all outraged, but you know.

Speaker 3 Well, it's not, yeah, but I mean, 30% of the elected cares.

Speaker 1 That's not nothing.

Speaker 3 30% of the Republican elected.

Speaker 1 Well, I mean, those people that had already decided that those are the people who are going to be, who are going to be against Trump.

Speaker 1 The Andy Trump part of of the party is outraged, but no one else is.

Speaker 1 No persuadable votes. It's not moving any votes around, right? Again, to the point of his giant lead in that state.
He's done the things that would normally be catastrophic in South Carolina.

Speaker 1 And there's no even a flutter in the numbers, you know. All right, Jen.
I saw you scrolling your Spotify. Did you come up with something?

Speaker 3 Yeah. So my title.
So I think what's important this week is that it did, it felt like this is the week that Russia really broke through, right?

Speaker 3 It like came full circle from 2016, where the House leadership, the big four, right?

Speaker 3 The Senate majority leader, Senate Minority Leader, House Speaker, and House Minority Leader were all briefed on Russia interfering in the election prior to Labor Day.

Speaker 3 The administration wanted to make it public. Mitch McConnell said no.

Speaker 3 To this week, where you have Navalny killed. You have the Shmiranov.

Speaker 3 House Republicans have now gone from being skeptical about intelligence from eight years ago to now passing on Russian intelligence to try to impeach the sitting president of the United States.

Speaker 3 So my title is going to be Shmirnoff Schmash, which is their new vodka seltzer.

Speaker 3 And my song, which, as you know, I just came up with because I just

Speaker 3 scrolled now, is Sweet Tea. Keeping with the beverage theme, which is a Craven Melon song.

Speaker 1 And they, unlike James Taylor, are from South Carolina. Ooh.
It's pretty good. That was pretty good.

Speaker 1 That is pretty good. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Great. That's a great.
That's a great on-the-fly poll. Wow.
Nick Finch. Jen's impressive.
I'm impressed. That is good.
The Russian thing is,

Speaker 1 MKet, have you lost the ability to be outraged? I'm tying their last two questions together. Like, it is the Smirnov thing has had me in a state all week.

Speaker 1 I mean, it's pretty insane that the House Republicans are literally passing along fake Russian disinfo. Where are you at on that?

Speaker 18 Well,

Speaker 18 I'm in full Bob Dole mode.

Speaker 1 He's plenty outraged.

Speaker 1 Goddamn outrage. It's incredible.

Speaker 18 But on the topic of South Carolina, man, I just

Speaker 18 talk about a river of memories, you know, for all of us, I know.

Speaker 18 Just epic campaigns that were so significant and

Speaker 18 determinative and, you know, comebacks,

Speaker 1 you know, rallies.

Speaker 18 And this thing is just kind of petering out in a way that kind of, you know, flushes all those memories.

Speaker 1 It goes to the being boring that Helman said. So, which side were you at on OO, McCain and Bush? I mean, that is the prime.
He was involved in the destruction of John McCain. You're on the bad side.

Speaker 18 Do you remember the drunk debates?

Speaker 18 The debates where people were drinking.

Speaker 1 Yeah, because South Carolina used to be, you used to be able to get used to being able to drink.

Speaker 1 When they had those debates at Myrtle Beach, the Republican crowds would always be drunk as fuck and they'd be like screaming. There was no restraint on the audience.

Speaker 1 There was the one in 2012, the Gingrich one, where CNN asked about his extramarital affairs. In 2012, that was like everyone was drunk there in Charleston.

Speaker 1 And the Myrtle Beach debates were always like

Speaker 1 everyone was rowdy and shit-faced at those debates. Those are really fun.

Speaker 1 I was screaming. Both of my two presidential campaigns ended in South Carolina.
Palmetto State, which would have been your good Jason Isbell alternative pick for you, Jen. But yeah, I got to have

Speaker 1 a lot of fun. No, I assumed it was going to be.
Palmetto Rose. I assumed we were going to have a Palmetto Rose.

Speaker 3 I'm going to see him tomorrow night at Radio City Music Hall.

Speaker 1 Here's this thing, though, that I just,

Speaker 1 having spent a week there, this goes to MCAT's point, you know, which is, and it's true, obviously, on the Democratic side, too.

Speaker 1 You go through Iowa nice, and then you have this New Hampshire, you know, both of the, they're basically, they're basically, they're, they're basically kind of like gloves off states.

Speaker 1 They don't really get, you know, they're not down and dirty, right? And the thing about South Carolina in both the Democratic and Republican side is you would get down there and it was always a brawl.

Speaker 18 They let the dogs off the chains.

Speaker 1 Yeah, right. Like the big red dogs off the leash, right?

Speaker 1 And it was like, you know, dirty politics and Democrats and Republicans alike, a lot of like nastiness and the mailing, the mailers on the car windows and the radio, the radio ads.

Speaker 1 And it was like, it was

Speaker 1 appalling sometimes, but always like electric and fun.

Speaker 1 You know, like there was just a lot of energy there, you know, and they were also often in the Republican side decisive, but, you know, somebody pointed out. South Carolina primary invented in 1980.

Speaker 1 Everybody who has, everybody but Newt Gingrich, who's won the primary, has gone on to win the nomination. So it's like, in some ways, the decisive primary for Republican side.

Speaker 1 And being there for five days this week, it was,

Speaker 1 I couldn't believe that it could, anything could be more desultory than Iowa, New Hampshire this year. But it was just, it was like low energy Jeb had taken over.

Speaker 1 There's no Trump lawn signs. Like even the Trump fans, like he does one event a week.
So yeah, they all show up. They'll do a giant rally tonight and a bunch of people show up.

Speaker 1 It looked like energy, but he's not been in the state all week. I mean, he flew in for the Laura thing.
It's the only other event he's done all week.

Speaker 1 So it's like, even the energy of the Trump people in 16 and in 20, it's just not there. It's like there's this, this kind of

Speaker 1 acquiescent quality to the whole thing where there's just no energy anywhere. It's like, you know, yeah, there's a bunch of Nikki Haley ads on the air, but no one gives a shit.

Speaker 1 Everyone is just basically like, we know what's going to happen here.

Speaker 1 You know, and I think broadly, that's how the country is about the whole race, which is sort of like, we don't love the idea of Biden and Trump.

Speaker 18 The rerun we don't want to see. Yeah.

Speaker 1 And it's, and I think it's overstated.

Speaker 1 You know, the thing that gets missed, a lot of people say the Democrats aren't super psyched about Biden, and there obviously are a lot of questions about Biden among a lot of voters.

Speaker 1 But I just, even on the Trump side, you know, he's got his hardcore base that are really nuts, but there's a big chunk of the Republican Party that's sort of like, yeah, he seems inevitable.

Speaker 1 I like him better than Biden, but they're not like really, you know, they're not anti, but they're not really pro. You know, there's at least a third of the parties like that.

Speaker 1 And man, it just makes for a really dissolute kind of like, you know, everyone's just sort of shrugging their shoulders and walking around, which is not a lot of fun.

Speaker 1 Did you make it to the Meatball Ron event in South Carolina while you were down there?

Speaker 3 Wait, did he go?

Speaker 1 It was sad. He had one sad event in South Carolina this week.
It was kind of like trying to stay in the mix, you know. Who was he campaigning for?

Speaker 1 Neither of them. It was like an issue-based, you know, one of those groups I think that had invited to him to an event, but when

Speaker 1 he was still in the race, he decided to go anyway. I want you to say this phrase again.
Did I go to a Meatball Ron issues-based event where he was campaigning for no one?

Speaker 1 He went there to talk about issues. It seems like you were bored.
It seems like you were bored. Maybe that sounded entertaining.

Speaker 18 I did get caught on

Speaker 18 a phone call that got leaked out that he, once again, was trashing Trump. Yeah.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 There's a Zoom call with his delegates where he said he didn't want to be VP.

Speaker 1 And then it really has been the most heated exchange of the whole week has been like Las Vita, Trump's campaign manager, tweet dunking on Ron DeSantis, who's not even in the race on Twitter.

Speaker 1 That shows you how weak it's been. What was the Haley event like though, John? I mean, he says quiet, like, who are there? Like, when you're talking to people, is it Democrats that are there?

Speaker 1 Like, who's there? I'll say something that, like, not that many Democrats. You know what it is? Is it, it reminded me,

Speaker 1 it's like a little bit like John Huntsman. The John Huntsman crowd.
Honest to God. Honest to God.
Like, we're doing your grandma.

Speaker 1 It's like. My people.

Speaker 18 By the way, I was with you at that last South Carolina wind down.

Speaker 1 I was there.

Speaker 1 You know, it's upscale.

Speaker 1 You know, she's, she's got in that, in the low country along the coast where she's going to overperform relative to the rest of the state, you know, and where some of her money, there's a bunch of, she got a bunch of wealthy backers down there who are still going to keep funding the campaign going forward.

Speaker 1 There's a little more enthusiasm for her there. But, you know, the events are basically, you know, a couple hundred people.
You know, if she gets 500, it's a big event.

Speaker 1 And they're, it's, they're not, it's not like they're lifeless and dead, but they're, they're very, uh, they're very dockers and and polo shirt, kind of like that, that sort of, you know, that, that kind of

Speaker 1 the part of South Carolina. South Carolina is a very diverse, income-wise, culturally and economically, very kind of diverse state.

Speaker 1 You can run all kinds of, all kinds of, there's redneck parts of that state, and there's very upscale parts of that state, investment bankers. And, and she's got the upscale.
That's her thing.

Speaker 1 She's, she's, she's living in the space where, uh, like the Bill Bradley voter of the Republican Party, you know, that's like, those are the kind of people who are there.

Speaker 1 And they're, and they're perfectly pleasant, but they're all, they all know they're kind of there to show her support, but they, they know as well as everybody else that she doesn't have a chance.

Speaker 1 And do you have conversations?

Speaker 1 They're like, yeah, they're like, we're here to support Nikki because we think it's important she's in this race, but they're not like, nobody's deluded that they think she's going to win.

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Speaker 1 I didn't get to give you guys my title. Do you want it? Oh, yeah.
I can see what you think. Okay.

Speaker 1 I've been thinking about it. I came up with a pun.
I know Heilman likes puns, which was Last Rights.

Speaker 1 And my last rights of this was, I tried to make it about broader and it's about Nikki, of course. But I really think that like the Nikki Haley Bush party has been in hospice for kind of a while now.

Speaker 1 But she was the best next representative of it, really,

Speaker 1 that could potentially be up and coming. And for her to go to her home state and lose by whatever 25 points, it's maybe the official end, death.
We can do a time of death for the Bush Party at 2024.

Speaker 1 Jimmy Carter's been in hospice for a year.

Speaker 1 Give her a little more time. Give her a little more time.
What do we think, McKinnon, Jen? Is it a death of that party or could come back? Can we put the gravestone on it?

Speaker 1 Well,

Speaker 18 I'm all for her plugging away. Just as long as she's got money to put any gas in the tank, just fly the flag, just say we're still here.

Speaker 18 I mean, I know we're on an island and there's a few survivors left, but it's important to send the message. And

Speaker 18 our friend James Carville, as you recall in the last episode of our last show, said the era of strategic certainty is over. And that may be the only true thing about this election.

Speaker 18 And who knows what the hell is going to happen?

Speaker 3 I just think being the last person standing, and even if you've got 13 delegates who knows jen is it dead is it r-i-g-h-t or r-i-t-e-s because r-i-g-h-t

Speaker 3 yeah that that also with the you know nearby state of alabama that that's the whole thing with puns is that they can you can spell them either way that's where our editors do the backup and do it over again yeah divya could decide oh yeah i do the little curse divya would curse yeah she would like have the cursors back up with that I feel like it's been gone for a while.

Speaker 3 It's just going to morph into something else, right? It's just like, so I don't know if it's the end of anything because it's, I feel that

Speaker 3 that 30%

Speaker 3 hasn't nowhere to go.

Speaker 3 I think it is good that she's staying in, even if she stays in all the way to the convention, just because having a Republican make those arguments against Trump is like really helpful, even with just

Speaker 3 riling up Democrats or

Speaker 3 independents. I just, yeah, I'm just not sure what those people are going to become.
What are you, Tim? You're one of those, but what are you?

Speaker 1 It's over. I mean, it's over for me.
I think. Are you?

Speaker 3 I know, but are you?

Speaker 3 Are you a Democrat now?

Speaker 1 no i mean i so the only republican i voted for since 2016 uh is a guy named steven wagspack who ran in louisiana in the first in the first round who had no chance to win does he have a monocle does he have a monocle i vote exactly i vote for one hopeless man with a monocle in the in the first round so you tell me what i am i mean am i a democrat like i don't know if i lived in maryland there are a handful of states left where i might have voted for a republican but i i think that and i think that a lot of these people are your brian kemp some of them are swing voters or your kemp warnock voter, but some of them are practically Democrats now, functionally Democrats.

Speaker 18 Well, here's an interesting little data point, which you think about the party and who's part of it and what is it in the future.

Speaker 18 And I've been looking, thinking about Gen Z voters for a little project I'm thinking about. And

Speaker 18 I was thinking about

Speaker 18 obviously the Biden Gen Z voters and the split and the Democratic Party and all that. And I thought about Trump Gen Z voters, but I was trying to think about anti-Trump Gen Z voters.

Speaker 18 There's no anti-Trump Gen Z voters. If you're Gen Z, you're either Trump or you're not.

Speaker 1 Yeah, exactly. If you're a Gen Z Republican, you're Trump.

Speaker 18 They don't know any other party.

Speaker 3 They don't know any other party. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Let me ask you this question, Tim.

Speaker 1 Here's the counter thing on Haley, which was part of the reason I put this in this piece I did for Morning Generally because Dick Harpoulian, who's a Democrat, but was smart about this and just laid out a theory, right?

Speaker 1 And the theory was, you know,

Speaker 1 she stays in the race, and there is a chunk of the party that's still either hostile to Trump or kind of indifferent.

Speaker 1 And people, you know, people's actual political commitments are way overstated by all of us.

Speaker 1 Like, you know, these, there's these stories about the anti-Trump college voters who, you know, got upset about the insurrection and now they're back with Trump.

Speaker 1 It's like people, like most people in America don't give a fuck about politics enough. And they, they, they could change a lot over the course of the next eight years once Trump is gone.

Speaker 1 And his kind of thesis was, if, if she's right, that he's going to lose when it's over, she's going to have been out there, gone to a lot of states, been out on the stump in a lot of places.

Speaker 1 She's always been good at raising money.

Speaker 1 This gets to a question, which I'm trying to get to, which is not, his thing is like,

Speaker 1 Trump is gone now. The party's up for grabs.

Speaker 1 There's going to be, you know, a bunch of people contesting for leadership of it and what it actually is.

Speaker 1 And I think his point was not, well, Nikki Hilly's obviously going to be the next standard bearer. Her point was more kind of like, it puts her in the conversation around where does the party go?

Speaker 1 And she's going to be a familiar face who's going to be able to say, I told told you so. And like, I was right, you were wrong.
He fucked us again. We lost again.

Speaker 1 And I guess what that is premised on is this notion that after Trump, that there will be a big conversation about the future of what was once you guys were both attached to the Republican Party.

Speaker 1 Do you think that's true? Or do you think after Trump, the Trumpism just marches on?

Speaker 1 I'm inviting you to speculate. You know, I don't like speculation, but I'll invite you both to speculate because that's an interesting question to me.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 I think MCAT will maybe be more optimistic than me, as is his nature. So we'll see if not, but I'll go first briefly.
I just think if you said to me, hi, I'm John Heilman from the future.

Speaker 1 I've, I've, I've come in a time machine, and it's 2032,

Speaker 1 and the Republican nominee in 2032 is one of these three people, Nikki Haley, Matt Gates, or Tucker Carlson. I'll tell you that Nikki would be by far my third choice in that draft.

Speaker 1 I'm the most likely person for it to be. Is that just gut, or is that based on a just gut or based on a, an assessment of?

Speaker 1 No, it's based on, no, it's, it's a, it's based on an assessment of what MCAT was talking about, about Gen Z and younger voters, an assessment about who has checked into the party versus who has checked out.

Speaker 1 I mean, I think Deskarpoulian's talking to a lot of people who are not really representative of what the real party voter is. Yeah, they're older people who are kind of vestigial Republicans.

Speaker 1 They're still, it's part of their identity. But if you've in the last 10 years, if you've said, oh, I'm a Republican now, you like Trump or something like it, right?

Speaker 1 Maybe it'll be be a softer version. Maybe it won't be quite as crazy or quite as gerange or orange or whatever, but you want something kind of like it.
You don't want Nikki.

Speaker 1 You were a Democrat when the Nikki type of Republicans were in charge. And then if you're the type of person that likes Nikki, many of them,

Speaker 1 when you talk about how people don't have these political attachments as strong as we think, I think that's true.

Speaker 1 And I think there are a lot of people just looking at my friend group from high school who all voted for W and all voted for Biden with one or two exceptions who don't listen to the fucking Bulwark podcast, even though I beg them to.

Speaker 1 None of them, like, none of them had big identity crises about this. They just vote, they were for George W.
Bush and they were for Romney. And then one day they're like, Guess not.

Speaker 1 I guess I'm for Joe Biden. And now, and there are a lot of those folks out there, too.
So the makeup of the party, I think, has just changed too permanently for her. I would love to be wrong.

Speaker 1 I've been wrong a lot, but that's just

Speaker 1 how I would project it. MKAT, do you have any more optimistic outlook?

Speaker 18 I've got a rosier version. It doesn't surprise you.
I think that there is a real chance that Trump loses and then he will have lost in 20, 22, 24.

Speaker 1 18. Don't forget 18.

Speaker 1 18.

Speaker 18 And lost the House, the Senate, and the Presidency for the first time in 100 years since Grover Cleveland. And that they might start to finally get a clue that maybe this formula isn't working.

Speaker 18 I also don't think that

Speaker 18 I mean, I think Bannon is, you know, I think he's right about a lot, about just kind of it being a movement, and it could move on past Trump.

Speaker 18 But I also think that Trump Trump is such a unique, singular figure that I don't think anybody else is going to be able to carry that standard forward. And

Speaker 18 I've always thought

Speaker 18 the party is going to have to be burned down and resurrected from the ashes. And the question is, what comes up from that?

Speaker 18 And Nikki Haley at that point will have, you know, some really good notches in her belt.

Speaker 18 You know, she will have, you know, gone through this process as the second person standing and raised a ton of money,

Speaker 18 run a pretty good campaign, gained a lot of credibility. And despite what Don Lemon says, she will will not be way past her prime.
She'll be 55.

Speaker 1 Don't catching strays.

Speaker 3 You know, but the thing is that the person who finishes second always thinks that they can be the next

Speaker 3 person who finishes first, and they're not. They're just the person who came in second the last time around.

Speaker 1 Well, that's what it used to be in the Republican Party. It used to be.
That used to be true. It's just, you know, Trump just blew all that up, right? I mean, you know, Romney and Romney.

Speaker 3 Was that true for Romney? I guess it was true for Romney.

Speaker 1 I think it was true for Romney.

Speaker 3 That's true. You're right.
You're right.

Speaker 18 If he loses, and I think, you know, Republicans, among the messages of the beginning, is that maybe we should nominate a woman. And Nikki's been through this drill, and

Speaker 18 she's a proven warrior.

Speaker 3 Yeah, but it's like, if they're going to reject Trump, it's like, I think you're going to have to have somebody who had no connection to him.

Speaker 3 You know, she was his ambassador to the U.N., she propped him up. She propped him up when he needed it.

Speaker 3 I think, like, you know, bring on like, I don't know, like David Holt from Oklahoma City or somebody.

Speaker 3 Right.

Speaker 1 That's my boy, David Holt. Is that right? You're really pandering.
You're You're pandering to the Bulwark crowd.

Speaker 1 The last remaining Bulwark Republican. Oklahoma City meeting.

Speaker 3 He seems good. Like, you know, he's like a problem solver, you know, like getting stuff done.

Speaker 1 By the way, she still says she's going to pardon him. She still says she's going to pardon him if she gets a, if she, if she were president.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

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Speaker 1 I need to get Jen's opinion about the Biden discourse, but I have one more thing about Haley first before we lose everybody.

Speaker 1 You said on Morning Joe that you, I think someone told me this, so I haven't actually seen it. So it could, this is a game of telephone.

Speaker 1 Something about Nikki, maybe third party, maybe that there could be a no labelsy thing. There's some buzz about that.
What's your, what was that? What was the context of that?

Speaker 1 I said that there was, I think what I said was that there was that there had been the way that she's handled that, there's been speculation about it, and that's true.

Speaker 1 And so like the, there's been, I don't believe that that's true, but there has been speculation about it. And there's speculation because she's been asked about it.

Speaker 1 And she keeps saying very, very self-consciously, I'm not thinking about that right now. I've given no thought to that.

Speaker 1 What I'm pursuing right now is the Republican nomination, which is like the kind of thing that people say when they want to leave the door open to it. Right.

Speaker 1 I would say, you know, that if you believe Nikki Haley is, is, and I say this, Jen, not in a loaded gender way.

Speaker 1 I think, as you know, I think most politicians are highly ambitious creatures, but she's very ambitious. And a lot of people think she's calculating.

Speaker 1 And part of the reason she's been ideologically so all over the place is because she's constantly tacking from one thing to another in terms of what her perceived advantage is at that moment. That,

Speaker 1 you know, that you look at no labels and you say, the no-labels candidate is not going to be president in 2024. It's not going to win.

Speaker 1 And the no-labels candidate is not going to be, then is not going to become the Republican candidate if they become first of the no-labels candidate.

Speaker 1 And so there's no way if you think you want to be the leader of the Republican Party in some reconstituted thing, if that's what you're playing the long game, or if you're playing the short game and you want to be president, being the no-labels candid is not the way to do that.

Speaker 1 And so it's not, I think, where she ends up.

Speaker 1 There is one alternative view of this, which is that being the no-labels candidate, if you decided that what you wanted to to do was make money and like corporate boards was your play, you're going to leave politics to the end of this.

Speaker 1 Like going to do the no labels thing would be a great credential to go and be, to connect to a lot of rich donors.

Speaker 1 Again, I'm just saying, I'm saying very, people, people look at her financial motivations. That's another prism that you get from the South Carolina people.
They're like, very financially motivated.

Speaker 1 If she decided that what she wanted was a pathway to corporate boards, that would open up that. Like, basically, I'm giving up politics.

Speaker 1 I'm just going to do this because that is obviously what, you know, a lot of the labels support.

Speaker 1 It comes from, you know, that kind of crowd, the corporate, the crowd and the people who have a lot of connections to corporate boards.

Speaker 1 I don't think that's what she's doing, but, but I just give you the, that's, I'll give you the whole thing. That's the whole discussion around Nikki and

Speaker 1 no labels.

Speaker 3 Kat, what do you think?

Speaker 18 I think it's unlikely that she would go that route.

Speaker 18 With the exception that

Speaker 18 if she made a calculation that

Speaker 18 there really was no future beyond Trump, but that Trump is the future of the Republican Party, whether he wins or loses,

Speaker 18 and that

Speaker 18 she burned her ship on the shore, and she can't go back, and that there's no route forward in the Republican Party.

Speaker 18 I think she'd look at it and it would make sense.

Speaker 18 And by the way, I think a Haley-led third-party ticket could be trouble. I mean, I think it would be competitive.

Speaker 1 I will say that if you listen to the speech she gave when she said she wasn't going to drop out, if you listen to what she actually said,

Speaker 1 if you were the Martian from the future or whatever, Tim, and you just landed and you said, okay, what is this person angling for? Her denunciation of Trump and Biden is equal.

Speaker 1 I mean, she does, she is a no-labels message right now, which is, you know, the country doesn't want either one of these people. Biden's too far to the left.
Trump's too far to the right.

Speaker 1 They're totally divisive. We need to have unity.

Speaker 1 I mean, she's. She's giving a speech that a no-labels candidate could give if you just listen to the speech itself on the substance.

Speaker 1 So I think that's part of what's fueled some people's thinking about this is that she is in the no labels slot. That's what she's, that's the message she's running on right now,

Speaker 1 even though she's trying to say she's a Republican, you know? I'm surprised nobody's pulled it. I'm surprised nobody pulled it.

Speaker 1 And as MKAT knows, we've gone round and round on this because I'm pretty, I've been hostile to no labels because I think most of the candidates have been floated. I look at them and say,

Speaker 1 these people are mostly going to take from Biden. The Haley case is interesting in that, you know, if you say that if you think about it, she has a third of the party.

Speaker 1 you know, or you know, 30% of the vote. You know, probably 5% to 10% of those people max are gettable for Biden.
And then there's another 20% that are more rank-and-file traditional Republicans.

Speaker 1 She might, I guess all I'm saying is unknown. I don't know.
She might hurt Biden too, but I think it'd be more interesting than the other names out there as far as conceivably pulling from Trump.

Speaker 1 Most of the no-labels people are people who would hurt Biden unequivocally. And she is one who you'd have to at least think it through.

Speaker 1 It's not obvious that she might, you know, hurt, she could conceivably take away more Republican votes than Democrat votes. That's right.
That makes sense to me.

Speaker 1 I wonder if Biden and Trump people are polling it. I bet they are.
If you're listening and you have that, leak it to us.

Speaker 18 To their credit, I will just say here,

Speaker 18 candidly, that, as you know, and I say repeatedly, I have no official role, I have no labels, and haven't in a long time, but I do call and talk to them occasionally. And

Speaker 18 I asked that question. I said, well, have you polled Nikki Haley? And to their credit,

Speaker 1 we don't poll. That's not, you know,

Speaker 18 we don't do that. That's not.

Speaker 1 Five people don't pollute people are going to decide themselves. this podcast is not gonna end up in a doj report five people are gonna decide themselves

Speaker 1 you think that's worse than the system that produces the two geriatrics i don't know jen uh if we had this show last week you know i think that the the golden goose would have been jen and nesra klein sitting down i don't know in brooklyn somewhere i don't know i'm trying to picture this like you know what what how do you think that conversation play would have played out where what do you feel about it oh boy oh boy.

Speaker 1 Oh boy.

Speaker 3 Also, I don't know if you know, do you know that I just said I wrote a response, a very polite response to Ezra Klein? I did, I wrote a, I voted, I wrote a very polite response.

Speaker 1 I mean, it is,

Speaker 3 and I have to say, I think Ezra Klein really helped,

Speaker 3 he helped Democrats, he helped, he helped Biden because it's just, you know, if you, if you talk to someone who for five seconds who had ever worked on a presidential campaign, you would understand why it is bonkers to think that like the great move now when you have $130 million dollars that a presidential campaign is sitting on and or building organizations in uh in battleground states that you should wait until the middle of august like put the 130 million dollars aside not build any kind of coordinated organization and then like hope that you're divided uh that that after your press your sitting president admits defeat by resigning or saying he's not going to run

Speaker 3 that you can you know resurrect some kind of strong campaign to take on donald trump with 11 weeks to go it's just it's it's just ridiculous.

Speaker 1 Lincoln, it worked for Lincoln. Bill Crystal pointed that out this week.
Abe Lincoln. Especially since the record of broker conventions

Speaker 1 producing

Speaker 1 successful nominees is like, like somebody please point to the last time that's happened. We got

Speaker 1 Jamal Bowman charging the stage with some pro-Hamas protesters. It's going to be

Speaker 1 while Josh Shapiro tries to take the nomination from the first black vice president. That's all going to go real great.
That's going to be a wonderful scene. And

Speaker 1 another police riot in Grand Park. Yeah, that'll be great.

Speaker 3 Yeah, so I think, so it has helped. And then the other thing I feel like in the last 10 days, since the her report, now the her report, you know, some people were like, oh, this is good.

Speaker 3 They got the Biden campaign got their crucible over early. It's like, well, no, that just showed you like.

Speaker 3 how bad it's going to get when his vulnerability around his age comes into like the crosshairs right it's tough but at least we they like got through that and i think they are definitely he is out more he's also more relevant right now because he's in an actual fight with trump so you see more of him i think seeing more of him even when he screws up is important because we understand like oh he knows what's going on he like you know he's a he he talks to the he talks to the press most days he does q's and a q a's with the press on most days this doesn't actually necessarily get covered so i think

Speaker 18 it feels a little it feels stabilized jennifer i'll just say completely anecdotally that just in the last week or two i feel like i've heard and seen Biden more a lot.

Speaker 1 Yeah. In a good way.
Yeah. You know, it's just like, oh, right.

Speaker 18 And it wasn't, you know, some very, it was just like something sort of normal. It's like, oh, he's normal.
And he can do that.

Speaker 3 Yeah, he does. You know, he walks up and talks to the press on most days.

Speaker 3 And that is, and I think partly he's getting covered more because it's like, you know, Russia and Ukraine and, you know, seeing Navalny's widow. And jokes about his sex life.

Speaker 1 That was a good.

Speaker 3 Jokes about a sex life.

Speaker 1 All three of you guys know what it's like because you've all been involved in managing campaigns and dealing with

Speaker 1 communications.

Speaker 1 If somebody says to you something that's, I think in this case, is unequivocally true, but if you heard this and you were running the communications operation

Speaker 1 for Joe Biden, you would be like, oh,

Speaker 1 it's like, the reality is you've got to normalize his mistakes. They have to become

Speaker 1 around the middle. The only way for this to work, he's going to be making mistakes.
He's going to be looking old. He's going to be doing shit.
He's going to mix stuff up.

Speaker 1 He's going to make mistakes for the rest of the campaign. If you make it, you have to make it like he makes them every day and people see it and it's fine.

Speaker 1 If you make it, if it because it becomes isolated things where every time he makes a mistake people can focus on it i would like flood the zone with biden i'd like be like get it it's a huge risky thing to do but like the only way you can survive this is to make it so that when he makes the mistakes people shrug as opposed to

Speaker 1 things are still a bad joe things are still oh it's joe he does the yeah him grandpa joe it's fine he's still the but the ship of state's still floating and you know the economy is still getting better and we're still he's still holding nato to get that together and like dealing with Gaza and Israel.

Speaker 18 Falls down the stairs, but he still knows who to call it NATO.

Speaker 1 We're putting sanctions on Putin, and he's meeting with Navalny's widow, and he's doing all that stuff. And so he fucks him shut up every day.
Like, big deal, move on.

Speaker 1 He'll be more like Trump then, where like people just write off all of Trump's ludicy because it's all so normalized. You got to get there, and it's going to be painful.

Speaker 1 There is an asymmetry on the attacks.

Speaker 1 So Trump on Truth today had a little meme up there where it's like Biden is shuffling and then he goes into, you know, that old folks' home commercial, Visiting Angels.

Speaker 1 you know that one like

Speaker 1 trump is posting this on on his social media biden's campaign like you know has the has just the decorum to not do that right so that i i worry about i don't know if people are ready for that like the the just the low blow tick tock

Speaker 1 attacks are gonna be just off the chart i mean they're gonna be they're brutal i mean if you look on they're already out there

Speaker 1 they're brutal yeah they're already yeah if somebody said to me they went and spent some time where they just went and just went on TikTok and searched for Biden content just to see like what, just to do the deep dive of just like

Speaker 1 what's out there and like, what are young people seeing if they live on TikTok? And this person who was like a generally like not an anti-Biden, this is

Speaker 1 a curious person who wondered what, why is there this youth, the Gen Z problem? Like, just like, oh, let's go look at TikTok and really dive in there.

Speaker 1 Spend a week on TikTok and just look for all the Biden content you could. Not political content from campaigns or operatives, but just the normal shit that people are making.

Speaker 1 And he's like, it is fucking merciless. It's a merciless.

Speaker 3 Well, it's a lot of Gaza.

Speaker 1 Yes, but yeah, yes. But it's like, it's like, there's nothing positive.
I mean, it's like, it's a nonstop flood of mockery and criticism. And again, I'm not pointing at any finger.

Speaker 1 I'm just raising the fact that that's out there. It's not like, you know, it's not like it's not already there.
You know, people are seeing a lot of stuff that's negative about Biden.

Speaker 3 It's the biggest thing.

Speaker 3 Like the people that like, that are outside of the campaign that raise money and worry about, you know, what's happening on the outside, the biggest, this is the biggest hole that everybody obsesses over is what do you do about tick tock okay one rapid fire than a final circus question my rapid fire right now today percent chance joe biden donald trump other

Speaker 3 are taking the oath of office next january we have to do percentages too we can't just say biden percent

Speaker 1 i'll get i can go first i'm like 57 biden 42 trump one other Wow, I'm 53 Biden. That's very bullish.
That's really bullish on Biden. Jesus.

Speaker 1 You're lower than 53, Wellman. Yeah, 50.

Speaker 3 I'm 53, Biden. I think that the...

Speaker 1 I'm like 49, 46,

Speaker 1 49, 46, 5. Yeah.
Because one of them, because one of them could die.

Speaker 18 Yeah, I'm with John.

Speaker 18 Yeah. I'm 48, 46,

Speaker 22 6.

Speaker 1 Well, we're not going to have being boring then in the fall. No.
So we're going to have a much better, we're not going to have a much better episode theme song in the fall if we if we come back.

Speaker 1 Everybody says this in their walk covering the primary or being out there in the world. You're like, but the stakes are so high.

Speaker 1 and people are like yeah i know the stakes are high but right now we're we're going through this part which is like the anointing you know trump will get his get to 1215 you know in the middle of march and by the time we get to the fall the stakes even though people are not psyched about the choice and a lot of people are like not loving the the two nominees the stakes will kick in at that point i think it will suddenly be able to start to feel more urgent a lot more urgent that song is not sweet caroline

Speaker 1 not sweet circus circus things i i want one thing for something you miss miss being out there or a memory, something people should search for on YouTube,

Speaker 1 a favorite circus moment.

Speaker 3 You know, here's one small thing that I would search for on YouTube that I think that the Biden campaign should look for,

Speaker 3 should use as an ad.

Speaker 1 Okay, I'm ready.

Speaker 3 Our Israel Gaza episode where he went to Israel and at the beginning,

Speaker 3 Divya Chungi, who was the head editor of the show, her team did this cold open that was Biden through the years. And And I think it started with like him meeting

Speaker 3 Jesus.

Speaker 1 Moses.

Speaker 3 Jesus, no.

Speaker 3 Indira Gandhi.

Speaker 1 Moses.

Speaker 3 You know, as a young senator meeting Indira Gandhi in Israel. And it like went through the entire,

Speaker 3 you know, for his 50-year career

Speaker 3 through a foreign policy lens and all the world leaders he's met with and all the situations he's been in. And then when you arrive to the present, you're like, of course he's the guy.

Speaker 3 And that was, so that was winter of,

Speaker 3 no, that was most recently, that was fall of

Speaker 3 2023, the Israel episode.

Speaker 1 Look at that.

Speaker 18 I miss the extreme balance and polar opposites of being at the Kremlin watching John take on a KGB

Speaker 18 super operative and just, I mean, seeing the best at their craft going at it.

Speaker 18 Juxtaposed with being in a county fair in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district watching something being shot out of a cannon.

Speaker 1 Did you see the January 6th pinball? We also missed CPAC. I had some CPAC clips we didn't get to, but that could have also been in this week's episode.

Speaker 1 There was a January 6th pinball at CPAC this week. I heard.

Speaker 1 You know, it's devolving. Heilman, last thoughts, memories, words of wisdom? I miss

Speaker 1 Jen's dark and foreboding. uh apocalyptic view of the world which uh always reminds me there's someone who thinks things are more fucked even than me.

Speaker 1 I'm Tim, I miss your fashion sense, the pearls,

Speaker 1 having a routine access to pearls on boys. The pearl necklaces are, your pearl necklaces are top of the line.

Speaker 1 And the common thing to say would be to say that you miss MCAT's hats, but I don't miss MCAT's hats. I miss MCAT's hat boxes.

Speaker 1 No one knows what it's like to be on the road with Mark McKinnon, where all these hats have to be carried around in their own pieces of suitcase. Each one has its individual suitcase.

Speaker 1 That was like, MCAT goes to Moscow.

Speaker 1 And I'm like, all of the overhead bins are filled with these stetson box hat boxes i'm like the craziest thing i've ever seen uh but i do miss that speaking of cpack it's just uh i just have to do a shout out for no peace bitch

Speaker 1 no peace bitch megan mccain

Speaker 18 i'm doing her podcast next week

Speaker 1 oh you are

Speaker 1 just send her our guards

Speaker 3 getting some revenge from carrie for on behalf of tim miller carrie lake oh my god maybe that should have been the episode title.

Speaker 1 No peace, bitches. Guys, Jen Palmieri, Mark McKinnon, John Hellman.
Thank you for doing this. Hope to see you guys this summer and the fall.
And we'll talk to y'all soon.

Speaker 1 Said his cap was his honest friend.

Speaker 1 Left hand jumping the trees in the wind.

Speaker 1 Probably had the red lights memorized.

Speaker 1 Blasting the gravel like the stars in the sky.

Speaker 1 He had a slow motion in between, living and dead.

Speaker 1 He looked in my eyes and he told me, he said,

Speaker 1 It's more than I'll wage to get up every day.

Speaker 1 It's a fiberglass boat, it's a sales in me.

Speaker 1 It's the women I love and the Lord that I hate.

Speaker 1 The Lord, let me die in the eye dynasty.

Speaker 1 Lord, let me die in the I've done straight.

Speaker 1 The Bullard Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

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