James Hohmann: Kevin in a Vise

Speaker 1 Delta Airlines just turned 100 and is already shaping the next century of flight with the Delta Sustainable Skies Lap. Here, they're building the future of flight.

Speaker 1 Think electric air taxis and next-gen aircraft aiming to cut fuel burn significantly. And this isn't just future talk.

Speaker 1 Today, their fleet of Boeing 737s have marine-like finlets designed to reshape airflow that reduces drag. The future of travel is more sustainable, and Delta's leading the way.

Speaker 1 Learn more at delta.com/slash sustainability.

Speaker 2 Time for a sofa upgrade? Introducing Anibay sofas where designer style meets budget-friendly prices. Every Anibay sofa is modular, allowing you to rearrange your space effortlessly.

Speaker 2 Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anibay is the only machine-washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain-resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy.

Speaker 2 Liquids simply slide right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high-resilience foam lets you choose between a sink-in-feel or a supportive memory foam blend.

Speaker 2 Plus, our pet-friendly, stain-resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price.
Visit washable sofas.com to upgrade your living space today.

Speaker 2 Sofas start at just $699 with no risk returns and a 30-day money-back guarantee. Get early access to Black Friday now.
The biggest sale of the year can save you up to 60% off.

Speaker 2 Plus, free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washable sofas.com.
Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

Speaker 1 Welcome to the Bull Work podcast. I'm Charlie Seitz.
It is September 12th, 2023, and we have a lot of things to sort out.

Speaker 1 We are joined by our good friend James Holman, editorial writer and columnist for the Washington Post. James, welcome back to the podcast.

Speaker 3 Charlie, great to be with you.

Speaker 1 Well, first of all, before we get into everything, did you notice that the Packers beat the Bears over the weekend? I just have to mention this again.

Speaker 3 I did. I'm actually, I'm going to

Speaker 3 watch the Packers play the Falcons in Atlanta this weekend.

Speaker 1 Oh, really?

Speaker 3 I'm jealous. I'm looking forward to it.
Even we post Aaron Rodgers, new era.

Speaker 1 I just wanted to take a moment. The reason I bring this up, I want to take a moment.

Speaker 1 Thoughts and prayers to all you fans of the New York Jets. That's all I want to say.
There's no Schotten Freud. Just thoughts and prayers for all all you New York Jets fans, okay?

Speaker 1 So can we move on to the business at hand? Because I

Speaker 1 had to get that out of the way.

Speaker 3 Let's talk about something less divisive, which is politics.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so I'm looking at the headline in the NBC News website. Kevin McCarthy faces a perfect storm of demands as shutdown looms.
September 30th deadline.

Speaker 1 The House Speaker confronts right-wing demands to cut spending, migration, prop up Trump, and impeach Biden with veiled threats to his gavel. So here we have my Kevin once again.

Speaker 1 It kind of feels like Groundhog Day, doesn't it? Like, you know, Kevin McCarthy in a vice. How bad is this going to be? How about that for a general question?

Speaker 3 I think it is going to be bad, but I learned to kind of respect McCarthy's political skills during the speaker vote fight.

Speaker 3 Obviously, he has such a narrow margin for error, and who knows what his own agenda is. I think he's just trying to survive, but he was able to hold on for that speaker's fight.

Speaker 3 Obviously, some of the hardliners say this time's going to be different. They said that a few months ago.

Speaker 1 And the debt limit, the debt limit he pulled out of a hat, kind of.

Speaker 3 Exactly, exactly. You know, on paper, it's really difficult.
There's a lot they have to do. The base is restive.

Speaker 3 It feels like they're walking into all the same traps that opposition parties have walked into in the past.

Speaker 1 Well, is there any way to avoid a shutdown? Because it appears that the hardliners, this is their last card to play, right? I mean, the hardliners are demanding an impeachment inquiry.

Speaker 1 And we learned this morning that Kevin McCarthy is going to cave in on that. They're talking about defunding the special counsels.
They're talking about defunding Ukraine.

Speaker 1 Others have draconian spending cuts that have no chance of actually being passed. But is there any way that he can finesse this without shutting down the government?

Speaker 1 Or is that a just foregone conclusion?

Speaker 3 Sure. I think he could.
I think that there's a way that you can rest the votes with the right kind of leadership and the right sort of face-saving.

Speaker 3 But a lot of people that I am talking to on Capitol Hill and both parties are very, very pessimistic. But leadership has a lot of tools at hand to twist arms and to get the vote.

Speaker 3 If Kevin McCarthy wants to avoid a shutdown, he can. He might need a little help from the White House.

Speaker 1 But can he do that? You're right. I mean, obviously, if he wants to avoid a shutdown, he can cut a deal with the White House.
He can get Democratic votes.

Speaker 1 But wouldn't that come at the price of perhaps his speakership? I mean, I can see how he can keep the government open. I can see how he can keep his speakership.
I'm not quite clear how he does both.

Speaker 3 Well, perhaps this playing footsie with impeachment is part of an effort to sort of

Speaker 3 let's avoid a shutdown.

Speaker 1 Feed the alligator.

Speaker 3 We'll give you your committee to pursue impeachment, but don't make us look like we're unserious about governing.

Speaker 3 That could be... part of the calculus.

Speaker 1 Okay, so let's talk about this. Does he have the votes to go ahead with the impeachment inquiry?

Speaker 1 You know, over the weekend, we have people like Ken Buck, who's a very, very conservative congressman from Colorado. We're saying, look, he doesn't have any reasons to pursue this.

Speaker 1 I'm just reading a quote from Ken Buck. On the one hand, we've got to pass a short-term funding bill, and we also have the impeachment issue.

Speaker 1 We also have members of the House led by my good friend Chip Roy who are concerned about policy issues.

Speaker 1 So you take those three things put together, and Kevin McCarthy, the speaker, has made promises on each of those issues to different groups, and now it is all coming due at the same time.

Speaker 1 I guess the question is: are these reconcilable? Because Kevin McCarthy has finessed this so far.

Speaker 1 His political skill has basically been to throw out promises like Skittles, some of which are mutually exclusive.

Speaker 3 Exactly.

Speaker 3 Yeah, and I mean, the Post did a feature a few months ago, and it was the five families of the House Republican Conference.

Speaker 3 But what's funny is the McCarthy folks loved it.

Speaker 3 And they said, this really is actually what it's like. And I think that it's true.
And maybe that's not tenable in the long term.

Speaker 3 Obviously, this is coming against the backdrop of an election being not much more than a year away. And so if you're Kevin McCarthy, how much are you thinking about your own survival? Yeah.

Speaker 3 Which obviously everyone thinks of that first. But how much are you thinking of strengthening your party's hand going into the election?

Speaker 3 Biden looks so weak right now in the polls, but a Republican impeachment inquiry could end up playing to his advantage. Even a shutdown fight could end up playing to Biden's advantage.

Speaker 3 And are they thinking a year ahead or are they thinking three weeks ahead? And that I don't know.

Speaker 1 This is where it's counterintuitive because normally I think it's a safe bet that nobody wants to be impeached. Impeachment inquiries are bad, sort of like indictments.

Speaker 1 And yet, in this sort of upside-down political universe, Joe Biden could use a lifeline right now. And maybe this clown car impeachment inquiry could be exactly what he wants.

Speaker 1 Because it's interesting, they're backing into this before they have any real evidence. I mean, and this is kind of the problem when

Speaker 1 Republicans are pressed. Well, what exactly is the hard evidence that would justify the impeachment of Joe Biden?

Speaker 1 The answer seems to be, well, that's why we have to have an inquiry to find the evidence that we don't have right now, which is generally not the way things have been done in the past.

Speaker 1 So, how do you think the impeachment plays out? So far, Jim Comer's investigations have not been, I mean, this has not been the Army McCarthy hearing.

Speaker 1 This has not been really successful, the Watergate hearings.

Speaker 3 So it depends on whether they have the goods or are going to get the goods.

Speaker 3 I mean, all indications are that they have a lot of scintillating and embarrassing stuff about the president's son, but they don't have enough.

Speaker 3 So when you ask about Ken Buck, yeah, I think that McCarthy can thread this particular needle and buy himself a couple weeks by saying, look, this is just an inquiry into whether there should be impeachment proceedings and to see if evidence turns up.

Speaker 3 And that's how you can sort of get the bucks of the conference to go along. But then, you know, you send articles of impeachment to the House Judiciary Committee.

Speaker 3 I'm not sure what those articles of impeachment would be for. And that is where it gets dicier.
And if they don't have the goods,

Speaker 1 give me an example. What are the goods for people who haven't been paying attention to all this?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, I think in this case, it would be evidence that Joe Biden directly benefited financially in more than just like Hunter paid his cell phone bill one time.

Speaker 1 That he was part of these sleazy deals of Hunter.

Speaker 3 Exactly. And the deals were sleazy.
And I think Democrats should stipulate that.

Speaker 1 No, I mean, Hunter Biden clearly was trading upon his father's name. He had these sleazy international deals, and he made a lot of money, which he blew on cocaine and women.

Speaker 1 I don't know what he did with it. But so far, there is nothing tying his father to that.
And so that's what they're desperately in search of, right?

Speaker 1 They're in search of that nexus, that transfer of cash from Hunter to dad. And so far, do we see any of that? Is there any evidence?

Speaker 3 We don't. There is some smoke, but we don't see any fire.
And I do think that the Republicans, smart Republicans, of which there are a bunch in leadership and in staff.

Speaker 3 And once you start going down this road, it's dangerous. You know, it's like building a weapon that you're going to want to use.

Speaker 3 It's hard to imagine what the off-ramp would be because once you start the impeachment proceeding or the inquiry or whatever you're going to call it, it's impossible to imagine Comer or anyone else saying, oh, well, we didn't find the smoking gun.

Speaker 1 We're giving up. Yeah, he's innocent.
He's exonerated. Yeah.

Speaker 3 So then you end up, you put it on some of your members where, you know, it's like, oh, it's so frustrating that the rhinos won't. go along.
And again, you know, I mentioned an election in a year.

Speaker 3 The Democrats' odds of winning the House next year are higher than their odds of holding the Senate.

Speaker 3 And the presidential election is going to be decided by moderate suburban Republicans in four states, and control of the House is going to be decided by moderate suburban Republicans in California and New York.

Speaker 3 And the members who represent those districts are going to have really tough votes.

Speaker 3 And so, you know, one of the jobs of a speaker is to protect those frontline members, whether they're a Republican or a Democrat.

Speaker 3 And because McCarthy has such a small majority, he really is caught in this really tough place where he has to protect his frontliners, but also placate the Marjorie Taylor Greens,

Speaker 3 who, as you noted in your newsletter today, on September 11th is out there calling for secession. I mean, it's hard.
I'm not sure.

Speaker 3 I think the speakership in this environment, with this party, with this conference, it might be an impossible job.

Speaker 1 Well, that's why it is kind of compared to a Rubik's Cube for McCarthy, because you have to get these Freedom Caucus guys, plus Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's been kicked out of the Freedom Caucus, whatever.

Speaker 1 Can't get too deeply into that particular food fight. He's got to get the hardliners in line.
But by doing that, he puts the 10, 12 members and swing districts very much at risk.

Speaker 1 I mean, there were a number of districts that elected Republicans, but voted for Joe Biden. And many of those moderates are saying, please do not make us walk the plank on these crazy issues.

Speaker 1 Do not force us as a litmus test vote. But you know, I can certainly conceive the impeachment of Joe Biden vote coming up.

Speaker 1 And any Republican that votes no is going to be tagged a rhino, is going to be targeted for primary and may have the same fate as Republicans that voted to impeach Donald Trump.

Speaker 1 I mean, it will be that much of a test. And for many of those congressmen from the swing districts, I mean, this is like putting a gun to their heads.

Speaker 3 Yeah, it is.

Speaker 3 You know, one of the things that makes this Congress different than other Congresses is that traditionally the House passes tons and tons of show bills that they know will never go anywhere in the Senate, but it's sort of to put points on the board and so people can say they voted for this and that.

Speaker 3 And there have been relatively few sort of show bills. And it is because on some of the conservative policy priorities, McCarthy doesn't want to make the really tentative members walk that plank.

Speaker 1 Let's move on to something else. I need you to explain to me the Elon Musk Walter Isaacson story.

Speaker 1 Now, for people who are just tuning into this particular story, Walter Isaacson is an immensely prestigious author.

Speaker 1 He's written a biography of Leonardo da Vinci and of Ben Franklin, of former editor of Time magazine. And he's been working on a biography of Elon Musk.
And, of course,

Speaker 1 wow, what a tangled web, you know, dealing with the mind of Elon Musk is.

Speaker 1 And there was a back and forth over the last couple of days played out in the pages of the Washington Post where Walter Isaacson wrote a story about Elon Musk essentially shutting off Starlink satellite access to Ukrainians who were trying to attack the Russian fleet.

Speaker 1 Elon has pushed back. Walter Isaacson has corrected that story.
I mean, it seems like a terrible mess. We know that everything Trump touches dies.

Speaker 1 Is this one of these cases of everything Elon touches dies? I mean, where's the Walter Isaacson book on this whole Starlink thing? Because I have to admit, it's making my head hurt.

Speaker 3 It is making my head hurt, too. I've been following it closely.

Speaker 3 The publication date for walter's book is today we ran an excerpt obviously last week and you know i think in this particular case elon does a lot of things you know he he's very much kind of a shoot first ask questions later kind of guy you know i don't think he consults his lawyers as much as someone normally would i think that's apparent yeah or consult anyone at some point i mean it's He strikes me as the kind of guy that wakes up at three o'clock in the morning and like, I am a genius and I have this brilliant idea.

Speaker 1 I had this dream. I'm just going to not call it Twitter anymore.
I'm going to call it X. And by 4 o'clock, it's X, right? I mean.

Speaker 3 And he only surrounds himself with people who will kind of allow him to do that. And the people who

Speaker 3 don't validate those kinds of crazy ideas or tell him that they're genius, he quickly pushes out of his orbit. And I think it's a cautionary tale for those of us who don't have a billion dollars

Speaker 3 that it's good to have people who are willing to tell you when your ideas are stupid.

Speaker 1 That, by the way, in and of itself is valuable. Okay, let's go back to this.

Speaker 1 So, did Elon Musk fuck over the Ukrainians in order to appease Vladimir Putin or because he was genuinely afraid that if the Ukrainians used the drones to attack the Russian fleet, that it would lead to some nuclear Holocaust?

Speaker 1 Did that actually happen? Because now Walter Isaacson is walking that story back. And so there's a version 1.0, and now there's a version 2.0.
Can you explain that to me?

Speaker 3 Yeah, so the version 1.0 is Elon Musk found out that the Ukrainians were going to attack the Russian fleet in Crimea and shut down access to his internet platform that they're depending on for targeting and a lot of other things.

Speaker 3 And that thwarted what could have been a major coup in the war and really turned the tide in favor of the Ukrainians.

Speaker 3 The version 2.0 is Starlink was equipped to cover basically the wartime boundaries of Ukraine and that it wasn't covering Crimea.

Speaker 3 And so they would have, Musk would have had to extend the service to allow the Ukrainians to invade.

Speaker 1 Turn on something that was not done. Exactly.

Speaker 3 And so, I mean, I think that this is like where I don't have any insight into it, you know, reported insight, but Musk clearly does have a coterie of public relations advisors and lawyers who are, I think, in his ear saying,

Speaker 3 you know, this explanation protects you from congressional investigations and other problems. I mean, he ultimately is, it's insane to believe, but Musk is a huge government contractor.

Speaker 1 Which raises all kinds of questions, doesn't it?

Speaker 3 It does, which are legitimate and should still be asked.

Speaker 1 Yes, exactly.

Speaker 3 And I do think, you know, this should be bipartisan. Congress should look into this and get to the bottom of it.

Speaker 3 And also, the Ukrainians shouldn't be depending on the whims of this boy genius, you know, who wakes up at 3 a.m.

Speaker 3 with these silly ideas, as you know, correctly, for their national defense when they're facing an existential attack.

Speaker 3 I do think that there are lots and lots of questions we don't know the answers to, but it does seem like Musk basically did undercut the Ukrainians.

Speaker 3 On the other hand, to be fair, Musk gave the Ukrainians Starlink in the first place when he didn't have to.

Speaker 1 But that's the thing about the largesse of billionaires. What they give it, they can take it away.
I mean, you're coupling Eugene Robinson. I'm just looking at the headline here.

Speaker 1 You know, it raises the really large fundamental question that Elon Musk should not be calling the shots on how Ukraine fights or any other ally of the United States.

Speaker 1 It's one thing to say, okay, Elon Musk is screwing up Twitter and he's created this cesspool of anti-Semitism and hate speech and all of that. That is bad enough.

Speaker 1 But here we have a major government contractor who feels somehow entitled to make major decisions of life and death, foreign policy, war and peace. And wow, that just doesn't seem like a good idea.

Speaker 3 It doesn't. And let me add, you know, while we're talking about Russia, and Musk Musk has had conversations with senior Russian officials and all that.

Speaker 3 I mean, the thing that actually should alarm us more than Russia, I mean, in addition to, is China, where Musk really has played nice with the Chinese Communist Party and, you know, is knee-deep in construction in China and trying to do business in China and is totally very much caught up in the CCP.

Speaker 3 And I think that that should be really alarming that this guy has such business interests.

Speaker 1 If you are a United States senator right now or member of Congress, I mean, wouldn't this be like the most urgent thing to have a public hearing about?

Speaker 1 Is Elon Musk in the position to do anything to kneecap U.S. defenses against, say, China because of his conflict of interest? Why have we given him this kind of access?

Speaker 1 Or how much power does he have to do that? I would just like the answer to that.

Speaker 1 Maybe the answer is, no, no, he can't shut off our satellites because the Chinese called him up and say, you can't build Teslas here anymore unless you shut off the satellites that are protecting the United States.

Speaker 1 You know, maybe that doesn't happen, but maybe it does.

Speaker 3 Also, I think the question I would ask is: How can we,

Speaker 3 whatever dependency we have, however bad it is as a country on Elon Musk, like, how do we get rid of it? How do we stop it? How do we backfill it?

Speaker 1 How do we zero it out?

Speaker 3 Are there reliable defense contractors that we can partner with? Those are the questions that I'd be asking if I was a senator.

Speaker 4 What does Zen really give you? Not just hands-free nicotine satisfaction, but also real freedom. Freedom to do what you love, when and where you want.

Speaker 4 And with Zen Rewards, you'll unlock even more of what you love.

Speaker 4 Simply redeem codes to earn points toward premium tech, outdoor gear, and gift cards to your favorite retailers, all waiting for you in the largest reward store of its kind. Why try Zen Rewards?

Speaker 4 Because it offers more than just premium items. Zin Rewards unlocks access to exclusive experiences, promotions, and perks you won't find anywhere else.

Speaker 4 And like any journey, our reward store evolves with fresh, new items every season. So you can always find something for your next adventure.
Keep finding the freedom to enjoy more with Zinn Rewards.

Speaker 4 Find your Zen and explore everything our reward store has to offer at Zinn.com slash rewards.

Speaker 4 Warning. This product contains nicotine.
Nicotine is an addictive chemical.

Speaker 2 Time for a sofa upgrade. Introducing Anibay sofas, where designer style meets budget-friendly prices.
Every Anibay sofa is modular, allowing you to rearrange your space effortlessly.

Speaker 2 Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anibay is the only machine-washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain-resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy.

Speaker 2 Liquids simply slide right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high-resilience foam lets you choose between a sink-in feel or a supportive memory foam blend.

Speaker 2 Plus, our pet-friendly, stain-resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price.
Visit washable sofas.com to upgrade your living space today.

Speaker 2 Sofas start at just $699 with no risk returns and a 30-day money-back guarantee. Get early access to Black Friday now.
The biggest sale of the year can save you up to 60% off.

Speaker 2 Plus, free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com.
Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

Speaker 1 Okay, totally switching gears now.

Speaker 1 I want to get your take on this controversy involving the Democratic governor of New Mexico, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who just issued an edict temporarily banning the carrying of firearms in Albuquerque.

Speaker 1 Let me just read you this story. I think this is from CNN.

Speaker 1 New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed an emergency order banning both open and concealed firearms in Albuquerque and the surrounding county on Friday, setting off a stream of backlash and legal challenges.

Speaker 1 The ban is part of a public health emergency declaration over gun violence and drug abuse.

Speaker 1 The Democratic governor cited the killings of a 13-year-old girl and an 11-year-old boy, as well as two mass shootings in the state in May in her declaration.

Speaker 1 So this is a 30-day suspension of open and concealed carry laws.

Speaker 1 So your take on that, I mean, you kind of understand where she's coming from on all of this, but it is kind of breathtaking to issue an edict wiping out all Second Amendment rights.

Speaker 1 And of course, the backlash is national and local, local sheriffs saying they're not going to enforce it.

Speaker 1 A lot of gun rights advocates saying, see, we told you they were going to suspend the Second Amendment, and she just freaking did it.

Speaker 3 It is breathtakingly unconstitutional. It is a gimmick that will be struck down in court, should be struck down in court.
And it is exactly the wrong approach for lots of reasons.

Speaker 3 Again, you can be sympathetic to gun violence, horrifying those cases, but we're seeing this rollback of public health emergency powers in lots of places because there was overreach during COVID and there were too many restrictions.

Speaker 3 And if we could do it over again, I think even a lot of Democrats would say, you know, maybe we shouldn't have forced churches to close and that kind of thing.

Speaker 3 But now these emergency powers are being rolled back because they're being abused in this way.

Speaker 3 And I think for all of us who spoke out against Donald Trump using emergency powers to divert money that Congress wouldn't appropriate to build the wall, this is a similar illustration of a politician, mostly for show, kind of invoking these executive authorities that she doesn't have to do something that is extra-constitutional.

Speaker 3 I mean, I was heartened to see Ted Liu, the Democratic congressman from California, speak out against it.

Speaker 1 And to mention that, very liberal.

Speaker 3 Yeah, very liberal member. And even David Hogg, who was at Parkland and I think runs the group March for Our Lives, big liberal gun control group.

Speaker 3 He also said, this isn't the way to go about it, which I was heartened to see because I just don't want us to get to a place where governors are trying to one-up each other in ignoring the Constitution to pursue their agenda, whatever that is, whether that's going after undocumented immigrants or guns or climate change.

Speaker 3 Or, I mean, there's so many ways you could say, oh, there's an emergency. I'm going to claim all these powers that I don't have.

Speaker 3 And it is just so, as an American, kind of repulsive to our whole system of government. You cannot just do what Governor Grisham did.

Speaker 3 And the thing is, like, she clearly knows better, but this is just to try to raise her profile.

Speaker 3 Remember, she wanted to be vice president to Biden, didn't hold up in vetting, wanted to be HHS secretary, got passed over for Javier Becerra.

Speaker 3 And I think this is an an example of the Peter principle of someone who, you know, probably belongs in the House, not as governor.

Speaker 1 Well, I mean, your point about

Speaker 1 the outrage about Donald Trump calling for terminating the Constitution, and then you have a governor who basically says, Yes, I'm going to be terminating these constitutional rights because I think I have the power.

Speaker 1 Your rights is going to get slapped down. I'm really surprised by things on social media, but when Ted Liu, who's a very liberal Democrat, came out and said, Hey, really, you can't do this.

Speaker 1 I thought that was kind of an interesting tell.

Speaker 1 All right, I want to get to presidential politics in just a moment, but something else that hasn't hasn't been on my radar screen that is really immensely important and you've been watching closely, these upcoming legislative elections in Virginia.

Speaker 1 You know, there's been a lot of buzz. Is Glenn Young possibly going to be a late entry into the presidential race?

Speaker 1 And he's made it clear that he's going to focus now on trying to flip the Virginia legislature. And again, I understand people going, wait, this is one state, the legislature in one state.

Speaker 1 Why is it so important?

Speaker 1 Well, tell me why it is so important, because it certainly is going to give you an indication of what the mood of the electorate is, which is kind of a leading indicator going into next year, isn't it?

Speaker 3 Yeah, it is. And there's a lot of things that'll tell us.
You know, Glenn Young wins in Virginia by two points a year after Biden wins by 10 points.

Speaker 3 And if you'll recall, you know, the potency of parents' rights, parents' matter, the backlash to critical race theory, everything that was happening in Loudoun County relating to transgender issues and sexual assault, and Terry McAuliffe screwing up, you know, by saying parents shouldn't get to say what is done in the classroom.

Speaker 3 And, you know, there's a bunch of swing districts that are genuine swing districts, which is, you know, increasingly rare in federal house races.

Speaker 3 But here, you know, where there's a ton of districts with competitive state Senate and state house races, where Joe Biden carried it, Glenn Young carried it, you know, and then a Democrat carried it for Congress in 2022.

Speaker 3 And so it really is a great proxy and window for one on whether the parties will be motivated. You know, will voters be motivated to come out?

Speaker 3 The biggest issue, certainly as far as Democrats are concerned, is abortion. And right now, there's divided government.
The Democrats narrowly control the state Senate.

Speaker 3 The Republicans narrowly control the state House. And then you have a Republican governor.

Speaker 3 And Glenn Young says that if Republicans win control of the House and Senate, and both really up for grabs, then he will sign a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape and life life of the mother and incest.

Speaker 3 But what he has declined to say is if

Speaker 3 the Republican legislature passes a six-week ban, would he sign it? And he's kept the door open to that. And he said, look, you know, 15 weeks is what we're going to get.

Speaker 3 But so you have Democrats who are going around saying, this guy's, you know, he's going to sign a six-week ban if he can.

Speaker 3 He will be able to sign a 15-week ban if Republicans just pick up a couple seats.

Speaker 3 So it is a test of whether Democrats can still use the Dobbs decision and the abortion issue to rally rally their voters.

Speaker 1 So is that the dominant issue?

Speaker 3 Republicans are trying to make the kind of education, parents' rights the dominant issue. Yunkin's popular.
He's in the 50s, approval rating-wise.

Speaker 3 There was a big state surplus thanks in park to federal money, but the state's doing pretty well. Yunkin has done a bunch of good stuff with trying to raise educational standards.

Speaker 3 He has tried to invest in behavioral health. He has cut taxes.
I mean, there's the kind of a record that he can run on of actually doing a bunch of stuff in divided government.

Speaker 3 Young is going around the state doing these town halls in the swing districts because he is popular. And the big sign behind him at these town halls says parents matter.

Speaker 3 And he's still sort of, he pardoned the Loudoun County father over the weekend.

Speaker 3 So certainly in Northern Virginia's swing districts, Republicans aren't running on we're going to restrict abortion after 15 weeks.

Speaker 3 But I do think if Republicans win control of the state House and Senate, I think it will say something about the flagging, galvanizing power of Dobbs, you you know, going into 2024.

Speaker 1 What are Democrats saying about this parental rights issue?

Speaker 3 They're saying, yeah, we want parental rights. You know, you have a lot of Democrats in competitive races saying it was a mistake to keep the schools closed for so long.
That was wrong.

Speaker 3 We shouldn't have mask mandates again. Parents should have a say over their schools.
And, you know, so they have moved to a reasonable place on these issues.

Speaker 3 And I guess what Democrats are saying is now like Republicans have gone too far, that this isn't just about like school closures, that this is about book bans and culture war stuff.

Speaker 3 And in one of these swing districts in Loudoun County, in an open state Senate race, the Democrat is talking a lot about whenever the education stuff comes up, she responds by talking about school shootings and the need to deal with guns.

Speaker 3 So I guess that's part of their messaging, too.

Speaker 1 Okay, well, speaking of culture wars, you had an item that was kind of eye-popping.

Speaker 1 I don't know who originally reported this, but at the Iowa game, where, of course, Trump was there and got loudly booed, and Ron DeSantis was there as well. I'm sure he got cheered and booed.

Speaker 1 But there was this initial report: DeSantis' campaign is geo-targeting an ad directly to people's phones in the stadium that hammers Trump for allowing transgender women to compete in Miss Universe.

Speaker 1 I mean, wow. And as you point out, you know, imagine this being your case for why you should be the leader of the free world, small, narrow-minded, and unserious.

Speaker 1 As it turns out, it wasn't DeSantis' actual campaign. It was DeSantis' super PAC, never backed down.

Speaker 1 But still,

Speaker 1 James, is this the issue? Yeah, it's their message. Is this the issue?

Speaker 1 Okay, you're sitting around the room and you're going, okay, Iowa football game. You know, what can we do? We can geo-target these messages.
What should we go for?

Speaker 1 Transgender women competing in Miss Universe, that's their go-to issue.

Speaker 3 It's really depressing.

Speaker 3 I mean, what it feels like is a Hail Mary Pass, which is that, you know, Ron DeSantis knows that he's behind meaningfully, you know, by a couple touchdowns, And they're looking for a way to peel off evangelicals in Iowa who voted for Ted Cruz over Donald Trump in the 2016 caucuses.

Speaker 3 And they see this as a wedge to be able to do that. And so they're running that play.
But I do think it shows a fundamental unseriousness. That's your rationale for being the leader of the free world.

Speaker 3 You shouldn't be the leader of the free world. You know, it is the super PAC, not the campaign, but it's embarrassing.
It's embarrassing that that's your message.

Speaker 1 I'd forgotten that Donald Trump controls Miss Universe. I mean,

Speaker 1 or used to control Miss Universe. So is this a thing really that does he still control Miss Universe? He still owns it.
No, I think

Speaker 1 he sold it a couple of years ago. So did he allow transgender? I mean, what? This is like so weird.
It's like, you know, I'm embarrassed to ask.

Speaker 3 I honestly, I don't know the facts here. So I don't want to say anything wrong, but yeah, I mean, I think this was something that happened like a decade ago, and it was like one person or a guy.

Speaker 3 I don't really fully, fully, I don't know, so I don't want to speak out of school.

Speaker 3 But if the debate is over who has done more for trans rights or whatever, you know, Trump did a lot during his presidency to undo stuff that the Obama administration had done.

Speaker 3 But the conversation should be bigger. If you're trying to stop Republicans from nominating Donald Trump, trying to out Trump Trump is not the way to do it.
You have to offer something different.

Speaker 3 This, I think, it reflects sort of a strategy that clearly is not working. And it increasingly feels like, barring some actuarial issue, Trump's going to be the nominee.

Speaker 3 And so these are sort of gasps to try and stop that.

Speaker 3 But it just feels like if this is what you're throwing against the wall and hoping it sticks, it's like you're not in a very good place however many days out we are from the Iowa caucuses.

Speaker 1 Trevor Burrus We've talked before about this, the kind of the rocky marriage between Ron DeSantis and this super PAC run by Jeff Rowe.

Speaker 1 For people who wanted, you know, this is getting a little inside baseball here. But you have the campaign and then you have the super PAC.

Speaker 1 And the Super PAC has all the money, but it's run by somebody differently. And under the law, they're not supposed to coordinate.
They're not supposed to talk.

Speaker 1 So that's why they leaked that pre-debate memo that blew up in everybody's face. And there are multiple reports that Ron DeSandis is like, you know, what the F is going on with these guys.

Speaker 1 Jeff Rowe is basically... buying multiple summer houses off this campaign while the thing is just going up in flames.

Speaker 1 I mean, this is part of the massive mega grift of American political consultant politics, isn't it?

Speaker 3 Roe was Glenn Young's strategist in 2021.

Speaker 1 We did a better job there, but exactly.

Speaker 4 What does Zen really give you? Not just hands-free nicotine satisfaction, but also real freedom. Freedom to do what you love, when and where you want.

Speaker 4 And with Zen rewards, you'll unlock even more of what you love.

Speaker 4 Simply redeem codes to earn points toward premium tech, outdoor gear, and gift cards to your favorite retailers, all waiting for you in the largest reward store of its kind. Why try Zen Rewards?

Speaker 4 Because it offers more than just premium items. Zin Rewards unlocks access to exclusive experiences, promotions, and perks you won't find anywhere else.

Speaker 4 And like any journey, our reward store evolves with fresh, new items every season. So you can always find something for your next adventure.
Keep finding the freedom to enjoy more with Zen Rewards.

Speaker 4 Find your Zen and explore everything our rewards store has to offer at Zinn.com slash rewards.

Speaker 4 Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.

Speaker 2 Tired of spills and stains on your sofa? Wash away your worries with Anibay. Anibay is the only machine washable sofa inside and out where designer quality meets budget-friendly prices.

Speaker 2 That's right, sofas start at just $699.

Speaker 2 Enjoy a no-risk experience with pet-friendly, stain-resistant, and changeable slip covers made with performance fabric.

Speaker 2 Experience cloud-like comfort with high-resilience foam that's hypoallergenic and never needs fluffing. The sturdy steel frame ensures longevity, and the modular pieces can be rearranged anytime.

Speaker 2 Shop washable sofas.com for early Black Friday savings, up to 60% off site-wide. Backed by a 30-day satisfaction guarantee.
If you're not absolutely in love, send it back for a full refund.

Speaker 2 No return shipping or restocking fees. Every penny back.
Up right now at washable sofas.com. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

Speaker 1 We were talking about embarrassing and trivial things.

Speaker 1 There are actually, we need to remind people, there are actually really, really important things that could get screwed up with all of this, you know, performative politics, including in Washington, D.C.

Speaker 1 I mean, you know, Kevin McCarthy's trying to figure out how not to shut the government down, but we have FEMA money for disaster aid.

Speaker 1 And as you've pointed out in the Washington Post, Congress is going to have to decide whether or not to reauthorize the FISA authorization that was passed after 9-11.

Speaker 1 So talk to me about that, because I know you've done a deep dive into that issue.

Speaker 3 I have, yeah. So the Section 702 was passed in 2008.

Speaker 3 on a bipartisan basis and the idea was essentially to allow the government to conduct foreign surveillance, even if hypothetically like two Iranians are communicating over Gmail.

Speaker 3 In the old days, pre-2008, you could make an argument that because it was on American soil and it was going through American routers that they were do some protections.

Speaker 3 And so this basically created a legal framework to allow the NSA to collect on foreign intelligence targets.

Speaker 3 The challenge is that inevitably, of course, Americans are communicating with foreigners who are under surveillance.

Speaker 3 And so there's sort of incidental collection of American communications, phone calls, and emails when they're talking to people who are targets of foreign surveillance.

Speaker 3 And so the big question is: you know, who should have access to that material? Should they need a warrant to have access to it? And the government, so it's been reauthorized twice.

Speaker 3 It expires every five or six years. It's expiring again at the end of this year.

Speaker 3 And the government is quite persuasive that this has become like the most important tool for combating terrorism, espionage, that they've stopped assassination attempts, cyber hacks.

Speaker 3 They broke up a Chinese spy ring in the United States. What happened to Carter Page is very different.
It's a totally different section, a different part of the law than what's expiring.

Speaker 3 But there are a lot of people on the far right and the far left who don't want to renew this program. And there have been some abuses.

Speaker 3 The FBI was searching the database of 702, which is the foreign intelligence stuff.

Speaker 3 They were checking the names of Black Lives Matter protesters and January 6th rioters to see if they were involved with any foreign intelligence agencies, you know, out of fear that maybe there was some government behind what happened on January 6th, there was not.

Speaker 3 And so there's a lot of oversight, and it's sort of like that shouldn't have happened.

Speaker 3 And so we wrote an editorial in the Washington Post last week outlining some reforms that can be made to the program.

Speaker 3 For example, it shouldn't be used for non-national security-related criminal investigations, but the tool is so essential. 59%

Speaker 3 of the items in Joe Biden's presidential daily brief last year cited intelligence gathered under Section 702 of FISA.

Speaker 3 So that would all be closed off if this program isn't extended by the end of the year. And right now it looks like it may not be.
So I think it's essential to extend it.

Speaker 3 And Congress, in a bipartisan way, needs to get its act together. I think this is going to be the most important national security thing this Congress does.

Speaker 3 But, you know, you can do it in a smart way with reforms, and both sides can sort of get what they want. And there's some trading space, and the administration's willing to negotiate.

Speaker 3 But that's one of those issues that is on the back burner, but really does matter, especially, you know, here we are 22 years after September 11th.

Speaker 3 And this system was created to prevent sort of the high wall of separation between foreign intelligence gathering and domestic law enforcement. This was supposed to fix that.

Speaker 3 And so if you re-erect that barrier, we're just asking for

Speaker 3 another attack.

Speaker 1 So will this be up to Tommy Tubberville?

Speaker 3 Unfortunately, I mean, they can bring it to the floor. I mean, there's a lot of people that are never going to vote.

Speaker 1 This just brings up this strange story that I'm going to admit, I completely do not understand why

Speaker 1 the United States Senator is allowing Tommy Tuberville, one guy, to hold up all of these military nominations and promotions.

Speaker 1 Why Mitch McConnell is allowing this to happen, why Chuck Schumer is allowing this to happen, why the United States Senate continues to have this weird tradition of one member being able to put a hold on nominations.

Speaker 1 That's not in the Constitution, is it, James? I mean, that's not something that the founders, you know, thought was a good idea. I mean, isn't this a good moment to say, this is just crazy?

Speaker 3 Well, yeah, I agree. It's shameful what Tuberville is doing.
I know a lot of really great guys who are in the military who are affected by this directly.

Speaker 3 There are reasons why this is not in the Constitution. The framers, we had an article of Confederation that gave every state veto power over everything, and that didn't work.

Speaker 3 So we came back nine years later and wrote the Constitution.

Speaker 3 You know, so the kind of the heckler's veto is not a good way to govern. I'm a supporter of the filibuster.

Speaker 3 I think that it prevents craziness on both sides and prevents kind of erratic movements and lowers the stakes of our elections.

Speaker 3 But I do think that McConnell and Schumer both have levers at their power to sort of jam through these promotions.

Speaker 3 And these are all like deserving people who, you know, it's not just the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It's lieutenant colonels and colonels.

Speaker 3 No, I think this is a good moment to revisit some of the whole policy.

Speaker 1 You mentioned the anniversary of 9-11. Of course, we all remember what happened that day.

Speaker 1 We had a really powerful piece, I thought, in the bulwark yesterday by veteran Will Selbru, who said we also need to remember what came after 9-11, all of the wars we fought, all of the casualties, and the men and women who went to Iraq and went to Afghanistan and all the fallout from all of that.

Speaker 1 And this is is a good moment to look back and we have had two anniversaries. We, of course, have the 9-11 anniversary and we have the anniversary of

Speaker 1 the pullout from Afghanistan.

Speaker 1 And you've been looking at the question of, okay, let's remember what happened in Afghanistan, including the state of women in Afghanistan, because that continues to haunt us, doesn't it?

Speaker 3 It does, and it should. And it's hard because it's much harder to report from Afghanistan now because the Taliban took over two years ago.

Speaker 3 And, you know, what happened at Abbeygate was terrible and sad. And I spoke out against pulling out of Afghanistan.
I thought it was a bad idea. I think that's been vindicated.

Speaker 3 And the women who are left behind, it is like worse than the worst case scenario. They have done so much.
to suppress them, to keep them from learning. The Taliban, I never believed them.

Speaker 3 I don't think any serious person did, but the Taliban claimed this time was going to be different. It wasn't going to be like before.
They were going to let women learn and work, and they have not.

Speaker 3 And they've banned contraception. They've forced women out of schools.
They've banned women most recently from visiting national parks.

Speaker 3 You know, some Dubai billionaire offered a bunch of 100 Afghan girls scholarships to come study in the UAE, and the girls boarded a private plane, and the Taliban, the Ministry of Virtue and Vice, came and dragged the girls off the plane.

Speaker 3 I mean, it's, they're treating half their population like, you know, animals, and it's unconscionable. And this is a reminder.

Speaker 3 and I understand the problems with Afghanistan and Iraq and all that, but the essential nature of American leadership, and there is a vacuum. The jungle does grow back.

Speaker 3 When America is not there, there were 4 million girls who were getting education because of a relatively small number of U.S. troops who were keeping the peace in Afghanistan.

Speaker 3 We had virtually no casualties the last few years up until the pullout.

Speaker 3 So it is a reminder 22 years after 9-11, after the bad taste in our mouth from Iraq, American leadership still matters and that it's essential.

Speaker 3 And this idea that the world will be okay without us is just plain wrong, especially as there are so many people like the Russians and the Chinese who are now making inroads into Afghanistan.

Speaker 3 And, you know, China's getting mineral rights and various things. It is a tragedy on so many levels.

Speaker 3 Just because it's not in the newspapers or on the front pages doesn't mean we shouldn't be remembering those women left behind.

Speaker 1 Yeah, the jungle does grow back. James Holman, editorial writer and columnist for the Washington Post, thank you so much for joining us on the Bulwark podcast today.

Speaker 3 Always a pleasure, Charlie. Great to be with you.

Speaker 1 Thank you. And thank you all for listening to today's Bulwark podcast.
I'm Charlie Sykes. We will be back tomorrow, and we'll do this all over again.

Speaker 1 The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper and engineered and edited by Jason Brown.

Speaker 1 This is Matt Rogers from Lost Culturists with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturists with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Hey, Bowen, it's gift season.

Speaker 1 Stressing me out. Why are the people I love so hard to shop for? Probably because they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired.
Except for the guide we made.

Speaker 1 In partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts meet incredible value, it's giving gifts!

Speaker 1 With categories like best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto, or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have.

Speaker 1 Check out the guide on marshalls.com and gift the good stuff at Marshalls.

Speaker 5 This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart podcast. Hi, darlings.
I have a little seasonal secret to share. It's the new Kahua Duncan Caramel Swirl.

Speaker 5 Kahlua, the beloved coffee liqueur, and Duncan, the beloved coffee destination, paired up to create a treat that is perfect for the holidays. So, go ahead, treat yourself.
Cheers, my dears.

Speaker 7 Must be 21 or older to purchase. Drink responsibly.
Kahlua Caramel Swirl Cream Liqueur, 16% Alcohol by Volume 32 Proof. Copyright 2025, imported by the Kahlua Company, New York, New York.

Speaker 7 Duncan trademarks owned by DDIP Holder LLC, used under license. Copyright 2025, DDIP Holder LLC.

Speaker 6 At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're there for you when you need us, day or night.

Speaker 6 And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack.

Speaker 6 At CVS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store.
We can't wait to meet you.

Speaker 6 Store hours vary by location.