Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!

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Pain plus reflection equals progress.

And from that principle, my company became the largest hedge fund in the world.

Managing how much?

$150 billion.

But I learned that history of things that never happened in my lifetime before were important things to understand in order to predict the future.

And we can get into that if you want.

Please.

So.

Ray Dalio is the legendary billionaire investor who decoded the cycles of human history to predict financial crashes, build the world's largest hedge fund, and now to warn us about what lies ahead.

Are you optimistic about the future of the UK?

No.

What about the United States?

No.

Why?

Okay.

In order to bet on what's going to happen on the global economy, I learned that there's five big forces that create a big cycle that's repeated through history, which lasts about 80 years.

The first is the money-debt force that creates wealth and opportunities gaps.

And it's connected to the second force, the internal conflict, where you don't trust the system, causing wars between the left and the right.

And it's not easy answers like tax the rich.

And we can get into that.

But the third is geopolitical force.

In other words, international conflict.

Then there's acts of nature.

And then number five is man's inventiveness, particularly of new technologies.

Now the question is who wins the technology war?

Because the winner of that determine how the new world order works.

Is it something to be concerned about?

No.

The question is how you as an individual handle it.

How do I as an individual handle it?

So there's building your financial strength, flexibility, importance of being open-minded, how to get more out of the minute, not how to work harder.

And I really urge your audience to learn all of this.

So first of all.

Just give me 30 seconds of your time.

Two things I wanted to say.

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Thank you.

Ray,

I want to describe to you who's listening right now.

And the question I have for you is, what is the most important thing that this persona of person should be thinking about at the highest level right now?

So the person that's listening is someone who is intent on improving their life.

They're really interested in business, potentially starting their own business.

They care about...

where they're investing their time and energy and also where they're setting up their home based on in terms of geography, they are aspiring to accomplish some goal.

They're probably between the age of 18 and 50, predominantly, and they are very, very interested in understanding what's happening in a world that feels incredibly scary, fast-paced and uncertain at the moment.

This is a very difficult question, but if anyone I was going to ask anyone, it would have to be you.

What's one of the first things they should be considering at this moment to safeguard their future, their family, their finances?

I don't think it's a difficult question.

I think it's very clear.

They have to understand how the life cycle works.

Okay.

They have to understand how it works.

We were just talking before, you know, in the book, and there was the arc of the life cycle, right?

And you have to understand that you're on an adventurous journey.

Okay.

And you have a certain nature,

you know, those qualities that make you have your your preferences and so on.

And then you're going after the things that you like and you're learning and it's going to have the ups and downs and so on.

And how you approach that.

So you asked from the higher level, if I'm looking down, you know, like that life cycle, that arc, what's that journey like?

How do you approach it?

You know, what are your principles?

How do you even learn how to approach it?

That's why we're having these conversations, right?

So that's clear.

You know, what's your nature?

How's the journey?

How do you find the path that's suitable to your nature?

And then you'll go down that path and you'll discover and you'll evolve.

What's that like?

That's what they need to know.

You said, what's your nature?

What do you mean by nature?

People are born with, and then also their environment creates their different nature, you know?

We have our preferences, our inclinations.

We think in a certain way.

You chose to be entrepreneurial, okay?

You're living out your nature, okay?

This isn't for somebody else.

You know, some people have a different nature, okay?

They would like to have the stability of a job and clarity and so on.

So when you have your nature, you want to know that and then find the path that is going to be good for your nature.

Then there's the particular tactical stuff.

So if you would ask me, should I be in the UK or should I be in the US?

Well, that depends on a lot of things, but that's a tactical question.

So if I want to be an entrepreneur and I want to build a technology company, do you think I should be in the UK or the US?

I think you should be in the U.S.

Why?

The U.S.

has a culture of

entrepreneurship, inventiveness.

There's a whole different culture, like in Europe, generally speaking, and in the UK, there's an establishment culture, right?

And here

you could be 25, have a blue streak in your hair and have the talent.

But if you got the talent to pull it off, you can get the resources and you can be an entrepreneur.

There's a culture of that.

That means that it's happening more.

That's why you even see the differences in the economies, okay?

Where is the inventiveness really happening?

Okay, it's happening here.

So I would say if you want to be an entrepreneur, this is an environment that's particularly conducive to being an entrepreneur.

So what is your honest perspective about the UK at the moment?

The UK has a financial problem.

The government has a debt problem.

It doesn't have enough money for what it wants to do and what it can do.

And so what you see is the non-dom problem, people moving, and so on and so forth.

And throughout history, when you have these sorts of things, then there's great clashes in people.

And the UK has been in decline since the war.

Even the development of the capital markets, can you raise capital there?

All of these things are much worse than they are in the United States.

And it leads to clashes, you said.

Of course.

You know, there are five big forces

that create a big cycle that lasts

about 80 years, give or take, 50, let's say.

And the five big forces are: there's a money,

debt, economy force.

Okay.

Debts are spending power.

So what happens is when you give somebody credit, they can spend.

And then, but it also produces debt.

And debt has to be paid back.

And so what happens is if there's not enough income to pay back the debt, then you have...

debt rising relative to income.

It squeezes out spending.

People don't want to hold the debt assets and so on.

The UK is going through that and has gone through that, and it's connected to the second force.

And we're all going through this in varying degrees.

The second force is the internal political and social force.

In other words, like between the left and the right with wealth gaps and opportunities gaps.

We have big wealth and opportunities gaps.

So when you have big wealth and opportunities gaps, there's conflict.

Okay, conflict between the left and the right.

And when you get to the situation where you don't believe the system is working for you and you don't trust the system, then there are wars, there are internal conflicts over that and so on.

So the third force is the geopolitical force.

In other words,

there's a cycle that usually goes from one big war to another big war.

So the last war ended in 1945, 44, and we began a new order in 1945.

And the way that works is that the winners of the war determine how the world order works.

They draw borders, they say, here's how it's going to work, and that's the new order.

Okay.

And that continues until there's a rising power challenging an existing power in the existing world order, which typically is deteriorating at that time.

And then you have international conflict.

Okay.

These orders, there's a monetary order, they all break down.

There's an internal political political order, they all break down.

And there's a geopolitical order, they all have this conflict, and they work together.

The fourth force throughout history has been acts of nature.

Droughts, floods, and pandemics, for example, have killed more people than wars.

And acts of nature.

Nature has a big effect.

And then number five force is man's inventiveness, particularly of new technologies.

Okay, because if you see that inventiveness, that that has raised per capita incomes, GDP per capita, any measures of the living standards over a period of time, and so on.

But it is also related to the first four that I said.

Those four forces interact.

Now, when we go back to your UK case, okay, they have a financial problem.

They and almost every country now is dealing with more of that internal political problem

for the same reasons, wealth gaps, opportunities gaps.

What do we do?

Who's got the power?

I don't trust the system kind of thing.

Okay.

Number three is we are certainly in an international great powers conflict, right?

And it certainly affects Europe and the UK as we're dealing with not only the Ukraine situation, but the Russian situation.

And what does that mean?

And that relates to the money thing, because, okay, where's the money coming from to have defense or military expenditures and so on and so forth?

So that matters, right?

The geopolitical matters.

Climate certainly matters.

And then, of course, technology and inventiveness.

So everything can be looked at through that lens.

Aaron Powell, Jr.: And so what does this mean for the UK if all other countries are going through this as well?

Doesn't it just mean that all countries are going to suffer equally?

No, no, no, because they're not all equal.

Okay.

Some are more in debt than others.

Okay.

Some people are more willing to hold their debt than others.

Some means they have more resources.

Some are bigger and more powerful.

Some are less powerful.

They're different.

Okay.

They're all in different conditions.

Some countries have surpluses.

Some countries are not in the middle of where they're having a war.

Are you optimistic about the future of the UK at the moment?

No.

No.

Because it has high debt, it has the social internal conflict, it's affected by the geopolitical factors, and in terms of inventiveness, it doesn't have the culture that other countries have, like the US.

Is that yes?

The culture and the capital markets to support that at a scale that it needs to be supported to play seriously in the game.

And for anyone that doesn't know, capital markets mean basically the investor markets is a way of saying that.

Well, I mean, it gets you the money.

In other words, you're a guy with,

you know, what happens is

we have to enable people.

people.

Okay.

What works is finding great people, talented people, and identifying those who you want to bet on and enabling them.

And that works, that's the most important force, much more important than money.

Okay.

Because you could see.

Who's got the money and power and where did they come from?

Where did NVIDIA come from?

Where do they all come from?

Okay.

They're guys like you, entrepreneur in a sense, who's been enabled, okay, by you, because you have the talent and people want to bet on you, and that's the capital market.

So they give you money to help enable you because they want to bet on you.

And then good things happen.

But are you optimistic about the United States at the moment?

The United States is very much a big picture.

No, I think it's very much in this issue.

So if I go down my list, it definitely has this debt money economy problem.

We can get into that.

Okay.

Okay.

It definitely has the internal conflict power in which there is a fight between the left, you know, the hard left and the right due to wealth and values gaps and people not believing that the system will work for them.

And so democracy is at risk because they don't believe this, they're not going to follow the rules in the sense they don't believe the rules are going to.

Number three, it's of course the leading one side in this great power conflict of the world, right?

In other words, yes, between the United States and the one side, let's say, and China and the allies, their allies on the other side.

I mean, in the news, you just saw the meetings of Xi, Putin, Modi, and that group over there walking down, you know, and okay.

So now it should be pretty clear how the sides are lining up.

Okay,

it's always better to be in a place that's not in one of those wars.

Like, stay out of wars.

And of course climate has an effect.

And of course then we have technology.

The United States and China are in the big technology competitions.

The others are really not in the game.

They don't have the money, this innovation and talent, in a sense, to play at that scale.

And so on.

So we have a great, you know, technology war, which can be used to create great advances, but at the same time could be used for great conflicts.

And so now the question is going to be who wins the technology war?

Because the winner of the technology war is going to win all wars.

Okay.

In other words, they'll win the economic war.

They'll win the geopolitical war because technology.

And I'm not saying anything that hasn't repeated through history.

Give me that historical context, if you can, just for

the technology, for example, nuclear.

Yeah.

Nuclear won World War II.

And does this cycle go back further than just...

Oh, no, it goes back.

That book.

Okay.

In order to understand these things, because I have to bet on what's going to happen.

I'm a global macro investor.

I studied the last 500 years of history, and it happens over and over again in all cases.

So I could take the British Empire.

I could take you through all the empires, but the Dutch Empire before that and all this.

And it it happens uh all the time

i watched your i watched your videos about this and it was truly fascinating how predictable this stuff is and the work that you've done to uncover this trend throughout history i mean it's almost for me it was almost irrefutable watching the evidence in in i think it's like a 40 minute video on youtube where you show how this is playing out through empires and it begs the question you know because when you live in the united states when you're When you're in the present time, you almost never assume that the empire you're in could fall.

You just don't, you don't see how it could happen.

We're so strong.

We're so great.

You know, we're so that doing AI over here, have money over here, everything's good, the sun's shining.

It's inconceivable.

Of course.

People always think that the future would be a slightly modified version of the present, and it's not.

Okay.

Watch over decades, but it's like watching a person grow.

Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

You know, you watch your kid or you watch a person and your age, any age,

and that's what you see.

Yeah.

Okay.

And you don't see the life arc.

Yeah.

Okay.

But the life arc is irrefutable.

But the US, do you think it's conceivable that in the next 50 to 100 years, the U.S.

could no longer be the dominant power globally?

Yeah.

Yeah, more than conceivable.

More than conceivable.

What do you mean by more than conceivable?

I mean that these evolutions always take place

and they take place in a certain way.

And

that

if you look at the probabilities and the paths and the symptoms, there is a challenge.

The United States is facing a number of those challenges.

And we're at a moment where

it's a question of whether the system and

the people

can get control

of the situations and deal with it

strongly and well

in a way where they are not

fighting to the point of

damaging each other and damaging the prospects for the future.

Aaron Ross Powell, but I mean, the United States is very innovative.

Got all these great innovative companies here.

So surely they...

Yeah, but you can't make generalizations about the United States.

And you can't make generalizations, by the way, about the markets either.

What you see is

1%,

a small percentage, 1% of the population, if you're looking at the breakdown of incomes and also you're looking at the innovation, the stock markets, which stocks are doing well, who owns those companies, and all of that.

About 3 million people in a country of 330 million people are really unbelievably doing great.

And you could pick the neighborhoods they're in and what they're doing.

And then there's the top 10%, let's say, which is the people around them.

And they're really, really doing great in that world.

At the same time, the bottom 60%

60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.

Wow.

And that population,

in terms of the basics,

being productive.

You have to be productive and be prosperous.

So

what you need to have a successful society is to have broad-based productivity and prosperity.

Okay, and that's a problem.

Okay.

So

which America are you looking at?

And are you watching the war that's happening between these?

It's a little bit complicated for me as a bit of an outsider because I see Trump saying he represents those people.

But obviously Trump is from the billionaire class himself.

So,

I mean,

is he a savior for inequality?

Is he correcting it?

I think he sees a lot of the problem.

And

I think he sees the debt problem.

I think he sees the internal conflict disorder problem.

And I think he represents

the red, let's call it the red states.

I mean, you look at a map, and there's red and blue, and you see where they are, okay?

And he represents that, and they're united behind him in terms of doing some things.

Okay.

So he represents, let's call it the red side, which is located where the map shows red.

And then there are the blue.

And

he views himself as somebody who needs to take charge and to do certain things.

Others in that population would say, those who, let's say, are not getting, or having the food stamp program cut off

or having other programs cut off that they're dependent on, would say,

wait a second, that's not representing me.

And so we have gone, that population has gone to significant number behind him that are

devotees.

They're all in.

Okay.

At the same time as we have the other side, which will have their devotees,

we're in New York City, okay, and the upcoming mayoral

election will be an example.

of the two sides, okay?

And they will try to use the system, but there's a question: will the system have enough support to work?

Okay, but that's what we have.

Just to close off on this point of the UK in particular, if you were to try and fix it, what would you be aiming at?

I say this because we do have a millionaire exodus that's widely reported in the UK, where I think this year we're set to lose 16,000, roughly 16,000 millionaires.

When you look at the big, big countries like China, America, the UAE, the UK, we're losing more millionaires than anybody else.

And I was wondering if you think it's fixable, and if you were in charge of the UK, what you might aim at first.

It's different, you know.

First of all, if you go back to the basic problem,

which is there's too much debt,

there are deficits,

there's differences in

education and opportunity levels,

and so on.

The most important thing that you can have

is a strong middle.

Political middle.

Political middle

to be analytically strong and also strong enough to get the people to do what needs to be done, even if they don't want to do it, to get to be productive.

Now, that's an easy thing to say.

It's not an easy thing to do, but you do need

that strong middle, middle and you do need to convey to people that you need to have this strong middle to change productivity

and you know and are you in it are are you in it are you patriotic and in it and you know but you look at history how did the united states come to be the united states people will go to the places that are better

than them, then stay in the places that worse for them.

This is fundamental, right?

Incentives.

Okay.

So you have to make the place

better.

Okay.

Now, I would say also you can take pockets and they go into the pocket and let it spread out, but you also have to have this equal education or, you know, you've got to strive for equal opportunity.

But anyway, it's a difficult question that I'm afraid I'm incapable of

solving.

It was unnerving to hear the tone of your voice drop when I asked it.

You seemed slightly

as if you've kind of given up on the UK a little bit.

Your facial reaction.

No,

I'm just a

practical guy.

I'm a realistic guy.

I made my money.

I'm in the business.

And it's my nature.

to try to be realistic

and to bet on how things will transpire.

And that's not healthy.

The situation in the UK is not healthy.

And the situation in the United States is very risky in many ways.

It's what we're describing.

So, you know, and then if you look where are people going, then you see the places that have the qualities we're talking about.

They're civil.

They're creative.

The people aren't at war with each other.

What happens next in history?

Well, usually there's a big fight for control.

Political revolutions and things like that.

The system breaks down

because they don't trust the system.

So

will the legal system resolve that?

Will the parliamentary system resolve that,

these disputes satisfactorily to the satisfaction of those people and the other people who have different points of view.

And the sides won't believe it.

And this goes back,

this goes back to Rome.

It goes back to Caesar,

you know, the Senate.

And,

you know, this goes back through history all the time.

Right?

And in the 30s, four major democracies chose to be autocracies.

That happened in Italy, Germany, Spain, and Japan.

What's autocracy for anyone that doesn't know the word?

Well, it means a dictatorship,

essentially, of a limited number of people at the top who are autocratic, which means that they are directing things, rather than a democracy

in which

there's representatives of all all different points of view that get together and follow rules to make decisions.

So the UK could become an autocracy, as could the US, I guess.

You're going to see a lot of pressure

for that strong leader who will get control of things and make it work well.

And you're likely to see two different views as to which side, you know, the red and the blue sides, so to speak, you're likely to see that type of clash.

Aaron Powell, you said the U.S.

is playing a risky game itself.

Is that from a debt perspective or other?

Well, from these things.

Okay.

From the debt, from the internal conflict, from the changing world order, the geopolitical world conflict.

You know, I don't know.

We're playing with nuclear weapons

in wars in different places.

And then, of course, climate and then the technology war, how we're doing that.

I saw that image the other day of Putin and President Xi and China together, walking together.

If China does become the dominant force in the world, the dominant power,

is that a smooth transition?

First of all, I don't think either side is going to be the clearly dominant power for a very long time.

And

the quickest way to have it is is some kind of a war, and that's a dangerous thing.

But maybe

it evolves,

hopefully, the way the Soviet Union evolved, that the worry of mutually assured destruction keeps everybody not having that kind of war.

And then

the systems, one system or another system, wins.

But that's an evolutionary process.

And, you know, I can't say in a.

do you think much about timeframes?

And because when I was watching,

when I was going through the changing world order, there seems to be somewhat consistent or predictable timeframes when these transitions happen.

Do you think about where we are?

Well, they're long-term big cycles.

Right?

It's like a life cycle.

On average, they are about a life cycle, about 80 years, but it's not predetermined, just like your life cycle is not predetermined.

Like if you take care of yourself and you, you know, I don't know, don't smoke, eat well, exercise, and so on and so forth, then you will probably have a longer life cycle than if you don't take care of yourself.

And it's kind of like that, you know, and so you see them in history, they evolve, but you can see the symptoms.

Okay, you can see the actions and the symptoms, which like taking a physical,

then gives you a sense of where they are in their life cycles.

We're 80 years from World War II.

80 years from World War II, yeah.

And you're seeing the symptoms.

Yeah.

Symptoms are clear.

They're all in that book.

You can see the charts of all the systems.

Is it something to be worried about or concerned about?

If you're in the United States?

No shit.

Yes.

And then the question is, how you as an individual handle it?

How do I as an individual handle it?

Well, first of all,

I think you have to be aware of the situation and the risks.

For me and my family, though, in terms of risks

and how I should counteract those risks, is it a case of me saving for a rainy day?

That's part of it.

Yeah.

There's a saying in Hong Kong, a Chinese saying, which is a smart rabbit has three holes.

And what that means is

you can see, is it the UK or the US,

I can then move to the better place and get out of the place that's a terrible place.

So, can I successfully be an immigrant or whatever and change my location throughout history?

That's been important.

So, the ability

to go to good places and away from bad places,

that's part of it.

Secondly,

Building your financial strength is important, which has to do with how you earn, spend, and save.

That will determine the amount.

And then what you do with that amount is invest.

And so how you invest

is also important.

So

if you have your financial ability

and you can make the move, And then you have knowledge,

you know, about what's happening

so that you can change things.

Those are the things you need.

So on that first point about a smart rabbit having three holes,

is it therefore

a better decision at this point in time to not

to not buy a house?

Because a lot of people end up buying a house and it anchors them to a place.

And it means that they then have to pay into a mortgage.

So a lot of the financial advice most of us have growing up is when you get enough money to buy a house, move in, pay that mortgage for 25 years.

But if I'm in a new economy, in a new world, and flexibility and the ability to get up and go and move is there's there's value to that.

The ability to move capital matters.

And if you look at history, this has been an important consideration.

Yes, so it matters.

So if you're nailing yourself down and that's your primary capital and it's nailed down there, then that

does limit your flexibility.

And on the point of earning, spending and saving, I wonder what you,

you're a father, aren't you?

Yeah.

What advice are you giving to your children about earning money in the current world?

Where they should set up their shop, the skills that are most valuable to acquire, the technologies, we talked about the US being a place to, one of the better places to build your career for all the reasons you described.

Well, that's

about

the particular that you asked me for that's below the level of the higher level.

Okay.

The higher level is I have a principle.

Make your work and your passion the same thing and don't forget about the money part.

Okay, if you make your work and your passion the same thing so that you're really enjoying your work, you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory life and you'll probably be better at your career that as a result, you'll probably advance and so on.

So you have a happier life and you will have probably a more successful life.

But it is true that the careers that you choose will have financial implications.

And if you say, I want to be a poet or something along those lines, you better consider the financial implications of that.

That doesn't mean that you have to go make a ton of money, because I think that that's, I think a lot of people fall into that trap, that they think the money.

is

like vast amounts of money is vast amounts of success.

And that's not true.

In other words, is your work and your passion the same thing?

So I think that what brings people happiness is meaningful work and meaningful relationships.

Okay.

If you have meaningful work, you know, that you're into and

your passion and your work is the same thing.

And you have meaningful relationships, whether through that work or beyond, you're going to have probably a great life.

Okay.

And so you have to keep that in mind.

And it doesn't have much correlation past a certain level of money.

It doesn't have much correlation with that well-being, with the amount of money you have.

And if you see studies across societies, and you'll see that past that certain basic level, there's no correlation between the amount of money they have and how much happiness they have or well-being.

That the highest level of correlation across societies and studies of happiness and well-being is community.

Do you have a sense of community?

Do you have those around you who are your community?

You'll live longer that way.

You'll have a more joyous life and it'll be a better outcome.

But anyway, so thinking about those things I think is important.

Based on your life cycle in this book, Principles, Your Guided Journey, Create Your Own Principles to Get the Work and Life You Want.

Do you think you have to play different games in different seasons of your life cycle as it relates to generating wealth?

And what I'm talking about here is really like risk profile or what I should be optimizing for.

Should I be trying to hang around with Ray Dalio or should I be focusing on the job that pays me the most?

First of all, the answer is yes.

And

the second question you asked, the answer is

that you should be around

the people.

who are the best people to teach you, to operate by the mentors and the learnings and so on.

You should be around the the best people.

And when I say best people, I mean people of good character and good capabilities.

Okay.

And so you should be around the best, not the job that pays you the most.

And I could explain why that is.

But, and yes, in terms of that arc, you will play it differently at different parts of your life cycle.

So in the early part of your life cycle, what you're going to do is, I mean, the more

learning and experiencing is the most important thing that you can do in the learning and the early part of your life cycle.

It's like you're going to make your choices, what direction am I going to be in?

And so on and so forth.

So learn.

Okay.

That's that's most important.

And then once you're at the end of your life cycle, you're pretty much relieved from all of that.

You're not going to be working to earn.

Okay, you're going to be free of all of that.

You're going to have, and you have freedom of choices and so on.

And you're going to be thinking about transitioning.

How do I transition well-being or how do I transition my wealth or how do I transition and so on?

You know, that's where you are.

Still, learning is a joy.

But at the same time, in terms of trying to accomplish, it's not the same at your late part of your life cycle as it is in your early part of your life cycle.

So I want to ask about your early life cycle and what were the most important strategic or wealth generating decisions you made

that you would encourage everybody to consider if their nature is aligned to yours.

Okay, my nature was I hated school.

I didn't like the whole thing of remembering this and remembering this and then give it back to me.

And there were these, you know, history like.

There's William the Conqueror in 1066 and what did he do?

And, you know, like all of that was what education represented.

And when I was

12, a kid, I earned money with odd jobs like

I had a paper route and

I mowed lawns and I caddied.

And I took my caddying money.

And when I was 12, I got, everybody was talking about the stock market.

So I put some money in the stock market.

I didn't know what I was doing, of course, but

I picked the stock.

It was the only stock I ever heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.

And my reasoning was I could buy more shares.

So if it went up, I could make more money.

Okay, that was a stupid criteria.

But it was a company that was about to go bankrupt.

And another company acquired it and it tripled in price.

And I said, I like this game.

So

I got hooked on the game.

I'm still hooked on the game, right?

So I liked it.

Okay, that affected me.

So I barely got into

C.W.

Post College.

I mean, then I went to Harvard Business School.

And that opened my eyes to the world in many ways because of who were there and what it was like and all that, you know, the best and the brightest kind of thing.

But I always still traded markets because I always played the game.

I can tell you stories.

You want a couple of quick stories?

100%.

Okay.

So I'm clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange between graduating from college and in the summer between graduating from college and going to Harvard Business School.

And that is

the summer of 1971.

And on August 15th, 1971, Richard Nixon

gets on the television television and says

that, you know, the promise that you were going to be able to take your paper money and go get gold?

You can't do that.

And we're going to cut that off.

He didn't say it in exactly those words, but money then was gold.

And what we think of as paper money, fiat money, was claims on the gold.

So I walked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange that summer, and I thought the market was going to go down a lot, and the market went up a lot.

And I didn't understand why, because I never went through a devaluation before, and I studied history, and I found that in March of 1933, Roosevelt got on the radio and made the exact same announcement that you're not going to get your gold, and they're going to print the money.

And when you print a lot of money, you have that.

Okay.

So I learned that history of things that never happened in my lifetime before were important things to understand.

Okay.

I went back then to Harvard Business School for two years.

And two years later, as a result of all the printing of money and the oil shock because of all of that,

we had the, in 1973, oil shock.

And now, because of my background, I'm hired to be director of commodities at a Wall Street brokerage firm.

Okay.

Which, and then all sorts of things happened,

turbulence and so on and so forth.

That firm went broke.

I went to another firm and I was

rowdy.

I wasn't your typical good employee, you know, follow everything.

And

so I got fired.

And that was in 1975.

And then I, but clients all like me for things.

And so they would pay me for advice.

And I continued to trade the markets.

And that's when I formed Bridgewater.

Okay.

That was 1975.

I just passed along Bridgewater 50 years later.

Yeah.

Okay.

So there's a journey there that has failures and successes and learnings.

You know, I have a principle.

Pain plus reflection equals progress.

Okay.

Your best learnings come from the pain.

It's a message.

Pay attention.

Learn how reality works and how to deal with it differently.

So you have principles for dealing with reality better.

And I learned that process.

And from that process, my company, Bridgewater, became the largest hedge fund in the world,

extremely successful.

Managing how much?

$150 billion.

1,500 people, $150 billion.

And that's made you a very wealthy man.

And made me a very wealthy man, which, by the way, was not my intention.

Okay.

I just wanted to play the game and to have meaningful work and meaningful relationships.

That was paramount, but it happened to be the game I played.

If you're good at the game, you make a lot of money.

And now I'm at a stage in my life where

I want to pass things along.

I need to pass things along, right?

So hence the books, hence our conversation.

And here we are.

That's the life arc.

But I learned a lot.

And so, that's the journey.

I think B2B marketeers keep making this mistake.

They're chasing volume instead of quality.

And when you try to be seen by more people instead of the right people, all you're doing is making noise.

But that noise rarely shifts the needle.

And it's often quite expensive.

And I know, as there was a time in my career where I kept making this mistake, that many of you will be making it too.

Eventually, I started posting ads on our show sponsors platform, LinkedIn.

And that's when things started to change.

I put that change down to a few critical things.

One of them being that LinkedIn was then and still is today the platform where decision makers go to, not only to think and learn, but also to buy.

And when you market your business there, you're putting it right in front of people who actually have the power to say yes.

And you can target them by job title, industry, and company size.

It's simply a sharper way to spend your marketing budget.

And if you haven't tried it, how about this?

Give LinkedIn ads a try, and I'm going to give you $100 ad credit to get you started.

If you visit linkedin.com slash diary, you can claim that right now.

That's linkedin.com slash diary.

Just for context, people don't like talking about money and I understand it, but you're a prolific philanthropist.

Also, Google says that your net worth is in the tens of billions of dollars.

And I'm sure there's some people that have clicked on this conversation and aren't aware of the scale of wealth you built up and the scale of Bridgewater Capital and how prolific and famous it is in the investing world.

In that 50-year life arc, one of the things you mentioned is pain.

All of us will encounter pain.

And you said, pain plus

reflection equals progress.

How have you learned to deal with pain?

You've had a lot of pain in all facets of life because you've lived the life arc and you continue to.

What's the best principle for dealing with pain?

First of all,

to calm yourself down

and to get centered.

Meditation has had a big beneficial effect on my life.

We can get into meditation in a minute of how it has.

But the ability to, you know, in a sense, calm yourself down

and when the time is right,

to reflect on what's happened,

both to understand how reality works.

You know, you want to be a hyper-realist.

I understand how reality works.

Therefore, I need to do this under this set of circumstances, which means developing principles.

And so what I did

when I would do that at any time, whenever I would think, what should I do, whether painful or not, I would pause, reflect on, you know, what should I do if that happened again?

And that's how I would write down my principles.

And what I did was I wrote down

a lot of principles.

A lot of principles.

A lot of principles.

If this happens, that happens, and whatever.

And so I wrote these principles down.

And then I found that in investing,

if I can computerize those

decision rules, I could backtest them, see how they would have worked, and so on.

So I built systems, decision-making systems.

Computer would make decisions.

So it was AI.

before LLMs, but it was AI to have decision-making criteria.

So it would be like I would make a computer chess game that would play while I am playing my mental chess game, what moves we would make.

And it's completely automated and so on.

But what I'm trying to say is that reflecting on how does reality really work?

And what do I do when this happens to that happens is the development of principles.

And that has been been invaluable.

And it also makes me see things differently.

Because a lot of people,

and if I didn't do this, I would be seeing almost as

a blizzard of things coming at me.

Instead,

I see everything as another one of those.

So let's say, for example,

It's a species.

So it's like seeing, okay, that's what kind of species is it?

And how do I deal with that species?

So it's one of those rather than just a lot of things coming at me.

Pattern recognition of

that.

But let's say if you think of us, it's a duck.

Okay.

Okay.

Oh, okay.

It's a duck.

How do I deal with a duck?

Or it's a lion.

Okay.

How do I deal with a lion?

Okay.

Rather than just a lot of things coming at it.

So this principle thinking.

and seeing it that way had a big effect on the quality of my decision making, and that helped.

Two questions I had there is, to become a principled thinker, I need to do more reflection, right?

And then the other thing.

You have to think about

how does the machine,

how does life, how do these things work?

So that's what I mean.

Okay.

And to write that down.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Write down your thoughts.

I find sometimes what I would do is I'd dictate them into my iPhone.

Okay.

Okay.

I'd say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, okay, ah, this is how when you're making a decision, why did you make that decision?

So not just make a decision, but think about the criteria you're using to make the decision.

Also, my emotions, my trauma, my insecurities, my anxiety.

Right.

And you might say, when reflecting on that, is that helpful?

Is that harmful?

And what do I do about that?

Like, for example, when what you're referring to is, yes,

that the motions and the things and all of those,

you have to understand that basically the brain's got two parts to it, right?

It has the logical

part of your brain, reasonable, tries to reason things through, and that which is conscious.

And then it has the subconscious mind, which is the subliminal that is really driving you.

And so when you

reflect, okay, how are my emotions entering into it?

What do I, you know, and so on, and you can think and you can align that, that's very powerful.

And meditation, by the way, naturally does that because what you do when you meditate, and maybe at times come, I should explain meditation, okay, how it works.

What you do is it's a process by which you sit quietly and you repeat in your mind what is called a mantra, which is a sound that it's a word that has no meaning.

Let me say the most classic example of that would be Aum.

Okay, so you're quietly there and you go

with your breath, you go, you know, om,

om, like that.

But you need to be taught.

But anyway,

om.

When you're doing that,

Because your OM is in your mind or your mantra is in your mind, you're not able to have other thoughts.

You'll see yourself wavering between

doing that and staying on the mantra and then having thoughts.

And then you go back to your mantra.

When you are in the mantra a lot, then it disappears.

The sound disappears and you go into your subconscious mind.

That's what they call transcending, transcendental meditation is the type of meditation I do.

And so you go there and you're not in a conscious state, and you're not in a subconconscious state.

You're in a conscious state, so it's subconscious state.

It's not unconscious, is you're sleeping.

Conscious is that you're awake, like we are.

You're in this.

So it's a different state.

Like if you hear the noise, you would hear that noise.

It would be big.

And not when you're sleeping.

But when you're in your subconscious state, then it's relaxing,

it's helpful.

And this process helps to

bring your conscious state and your un subconscious state into alignment.

In other words, you recognize both and it calms you down.

It's like the ninja in the ninja movies, you know, they're fighting, but it seems in slow motion.

The camera shows them in slow motion and they're doing whatever they're doing along that.

It kind of makes you in that kind of state of mind so that you're dealing with what's coming at you in that way.

And so, what you referred to is this:

these things that happen, and how you deal with those is really important to the quality of your decision-making.

How influential was Transcendental Meditation in your success?

Oh, enormously successful, enormously significant, very, very, very significant.

In other words, that way of

seeing things.

And how often.

And by the way, there's, you know, there's,

I

say,

there's a serenity prayer.

The serenity prayer is, God, give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control

and give me the power to control that which I can

and the wisdom to tell the difference.

Okay.

And so to how you approach these things, we're talking about reflection.

You asked me reflection.

Okay.

If you can reflect in that quality way,

then you deal with anything.

And

I've dealt with the worst possible thing.

I lost a son.

Okay.

And I would have rather died.

I would have rather lost everything to lose my son.

So it's the worst possible thing.

And then to see what it did, you know, the damage and the harm from the family, terrible.

Okay.

Then to go through that with meditation, with reflection, and so on, was invaluable.

And people have their own challenges, but to be able to do it that way,

I really urge your audience, I urge you, to learn that.

That's very helpful.

How did that tragedy change your perspective and your principles in any way on life, on happiness, on success, on all these things that you've written about?

Well, it's again,

I go above it

and you reflect on the life arc.

And

I realize at that higher level that that's what the life arc is like.

In all my books, there's this

arcing.

This arcing here, here's a bigger version of it.

Yeah, there's this arcing.

Okay, I don't know if your camera sees that.

Okay, whatever it is.

And that's what life and evolution is like to me, meaning you make advances,

you will have setbacks.

Okay.

If you reflect well and you learn how reality works and how you will deal with it,

you will get past that

and go on.

And that's just what it is.

That's just the way life is.

And if you do that well, then that's your best possible life

are you religious are you a religious person i'm not religious but i'm spiritual okay the dalai lama who i had the pleasure of meeting told me uh and i agree with um that religions are typically um a

mix between

superstitions and spirituality.

There's half of it is that element that nobody knows, but there is

the way people should deal with each other.

There is karma.

Okay.

All religions,

there's a part of them that says, do unto others as you would have them do unto you, or what goes around comes around.

And then you get to the particulars, okay?

And it is true.

that if we work well together,

that

even little things I can do to help you can make a big difference in your life.

And little things that you can do to help me make a big difference in our lives.

And so it's practical and it is also joyous.

Okay, that creates a relationship.

And we talked earlier about how that meaningful relationship is like the source of great happiness.

But when you have a community and you do that, you have a better society.

And almost all religions will tell you that.

There'll be elements of those.

And when I believe in spirituality, what I also mean is we're all part of this greater whole.

Okay.

We're all part of the greater whole.

And if you could see yourself as part of the greater whole and love the greater whole and whatever,

that is spirituality, really.

Okay.

And so I will go through my life arc, okay, and I will die, and I'm comfortable with that, okay?

In that, okay, it's all part of the greater whole, you know, nature and whatever it is.

That's true.

I can't tell you about other things, but I do believe in the things I just told you.

When it comes to living a successful life, we've talked about having dreams and understanding your nature and aspiring for things and then understanding reality, which transcendental meditation is a great mechanism mechanism and vehicle to do.

And in your book about a successful life, you talk about plus determination.

Plus determination.

Hard work.

If I want to be a successful man or woman, how important do you think hard work is?

Well, it gives you power.

It's very important, right?

Some people, you know.

I'm not saying they want to choose it, but the irony of things is

there are first-order consequences and there are second-order consequences.

This is like a rule of life, okay?

And most of the time, the first-order consequences,

whether they're likable or not,

has

the opposite

second-order consequences.

What I mean by that is like eating or exercising.

Okay.

Eat the foods you like.

Second-order consequences, probably not going to be good.

You know, I don't want to exercise.

Second order consequences won't be this good.

Okay.

Working hard, which gives you strength.

Where does strength come from?

I mean,

strength comes from working hard.

So working hard will give you power.

Power will make things easier and make things better.

That's just the way is.

And being open-minded while you do it?

Something that was open-minded.

Yeah, I say the importance of being open-minded and assertive at the same time.

I watch

people becoming so

tied to their own opinions.

Like, this is the greatest tragedy of mankind.

The greatest tragedy of mankind, because it so easily can be fixed, is

holding a strong opinion that is wrong,

that you could have made right

better

if you were open to learning more.

If you said, I want to be stress tested, I want my thinking to be stress tested.

I want to make sure that I'm making the better decision, and so I'll be challenged.

But a lot of people view that challenging like a fight.

It's not a fight.

If somebody holds a different opinion, it should prompt a curiosity.

You know, I don't know.

Am I wrong or is they wrong?

There's a 50% chance.

I don't know.

Maybe I'm wrong.

So it should prompt curiosity and in exchange to try to make sure that you're seeing the whole picture and so on.

But subliminal instincts are, I'm going to stick with it and I'm going to have a fight.

That's a problem.

Because there's too much on the line for so many people to it's subliminal, it's it's it just goes back to the mind thinking that the intellectual challenge is a fight and it's egotistical, you know, ego.

I must be right

as an investor and entrepreneur, that's obviously particularly important because

you're constantly dealing with new information and feedback, which you need to be flexible.

That was one of the two things that changed my

uh

my whole direction and made me successful.

I can't explain it if you want.

Please.

1979 and 80,

I had calculated that American banks had lent more money to foreign countries that they were going to be able to pay back and that we were going to have a debt crisis.

Very controversial point of view.

In August of

1982, Mexico defaulted on its debts.

And over the next decade, many other countries did, and it caused bank problems.

However, at that time, I thought things were going to get bad.

And that was the exact bottom in the stock market, August 1982.

So I couldn't have been more wrong.

I

lost money for me.

I lost money for the clients.

I lost money.

I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help to pay for family bills because I was faced with the choice.

What am I going to do?

And

do I go back to work on Wall Street, get a

tie, get on the train and go back that, which is, again, not in my nature or whatever.

And two things changed me.

Okay, reflection.

First of all,

I learned what we were just talking about.

I learned humility and fear of being wrong

and open-mindedness.

So I wanted the smartest people who could, I could find to stress test my opinions, because I always realized I could be wrong.

And then I learned how to diversify my bets so that I could dramatically reduce my risk without reducing my returns.

Okay, that was the bottom.

Okay, from that point, all the way over, that following those principles took me to the biggest hedge fund in the world, the most successful, and so on, because I applied it to the markets, applied it to what we did, and so on.

So, that notion of reflection, and then how do you deal with what reality is like, and then, you know, okay,

learn radical open-mindedness.

In other words, like there's a principle in the book, you have to take in before you put out, or that

decision-making is a two-step process.

First, take in, then decide.

Okay.

So yes, open-mindedness

doesn't in any way minimize your ability to decide.

So you still have the freedom to decide, but it's crazy not to be open-minded.

You recognize that the biggest threat to good decision-making is harmful emotions.

And that two-step process is first learn and then make the decision, which is funny because it sounds simple.

But when you said it, I think about all the worst decisions I've ever made in business.

And I missed step one.

I forgot to take a minute and do the evidence gathering or the like information gathering process.

Yeah, just smart people who care about your decision say, stress test me.

Why don't we do that?

That ego

and also instinct that that's a fight.

Is there any advice you would give me on becoming a better decision maker?

So I have a fund, I have many businesses.

Is there any sort of practical,

simple foundations of becoming a better decision maker that we haven't talked about?

Get smart people to interrogate my thinking.

Be open-minded.

I think we've talked about almost all of them.

I think then you have to then know about how to leverage yourself.

Okay.

In other words, as you do more and more,

how do you do more and more when your brain has a capacity limit?

Okay.

And there's only a certain number of hours in the day or the week.

Okay.

You have to know how to do that.

Is that focus or is that something?

No.

No.

It's knowing how to do it through others.

Okay.

It's knowing how to pick others and orchestrate well.

It's like running a symphony or whatever.

Okay.

Get the best players.

Okay.

When I say

good character and good capabilities and orchestrate them well.

And then provide that leverage.

Like

when I was doing the most, I had 30 direct reports,

whatever the number is.

The process is how to get more out of a minute or a day,

not how to work harder.

Okay.

It's how to leverage yourself.

And you're going to leverage yourself by picking the right people who you can trust.

They're not going to screw you.

They're going to operate in your interest and they're going to be capable.

And so a lot of of people, what you can do is you can deal with them and then you can say, like I would deal with them on this 30 reports.

I'd have maybe

an hour meeting with them once every two weeks.

And they'd go off and do things.

And when you do that, you can even find people who are much better at things than you would be if you did them.

Because if you have these different things,

okay, you better.

Because otherwise, you don't have the capacity.

You have these two key challenges to overcome as an entrepreneur, which is find these great, capable people that have great character and then like bind them with the right culture to make sure that they do the best work.

Right.

In other words, it's meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truthfulness and radical transparency.

Radical truthfulness and transparency.

Okay.

First, if you can have

meaningful meaningful work and meaningful relationships, the people are on the mission with you.

Wow.

That's fantastic.

But

you better be truthful and transparent.

That'll show that you're honest

because you have to get a truth, including what people are bad at.

and how to deal with all those things.

And most people hide them.

They don't bring them out into the open.

Okay.

Everybody's worried about hurting each other's feelings or, you know, that.

And then so they're not honest with each other.

And

that's the barrier.

We talked about the barrier of disagreement.

There's, it's like that.

Okay.

You know, Ardono, are you good at that?

Are you striking out?

If you're striking out and what is it?

How do we deal with it?

You better talk about that clearly because you need to have an A team of players.

You know, you have to work yourself so your team is an a team of players who are tight how did you do that at bridgewater how did you make people honest

oh well uh first of all um at a policy talk behind another person's back um

critically that happens three times you're out

and then i would have radical transparency so everybody could see everything

So you could see why I'm making decisions and I would reflect.

But the main thing is, you know, you know if it's happening or not.

Okay.

And I made that comfortable because that's ordinarily uncomfortable.

We talked about the fact that there's an intellectual you and there's an emotional, subliminal you.

Okay.

I made them understand, like if I had a team, a football team, and so on.

that this is going to be better for the team.

It's going to be better for you.

And you'll have your evolution.

Because what do you want to have?

Dishonesty?

Do you want people to think one thing about you and

really say something different?

How is that going to work?

So there's an intellectual, okay, we believe it.

And then also by having the meaningful relationships, I mean, I'm not, I don't force them.

I create a culture of meaningful relationships so that they have...

I've known each other for a long time.

They go to each other's parties or they go to each other's,

there are funerals, there are baby showers, there are these things.

Not that anybody's fault,

I created clubs.

I said, any club that you want to create that has more than 20 people,

whatever it is, up to $500 per person, I'll pay for half.

So I don't care what it is, if it's play softball or play chess or whatever it is that you're enjoying each other's company or you want to go to ball games or something, I don't care what it is, I'll pay for half up to that up to $500.

So I to nobody has obligations to or something.

But if I have that kind of meaningful relationships, so you can talk honestly with each other, I found that very helpful.

And you've built a famously built an idea meritocracy, which in my understanding means where the best idea ends up winning in the company versus just your idea because you're the most powerful person in the business.

Right.

I mean, I want, what do I want?

I want the best idea to win.

This sounds simple, but again, it's not how businesses operate.

One of the fascinations I've always had is that when businesses get bigger and they have more intellectual horsepower, by, I mean, if you just added up how many brains they had, they sometimes get less innovative and

it feels like the CEO.

Well, because they become more bureaucratic and more fragmented.

Yeah.

Okay.

I found it to be true, and it's a well-established fact, that if you get a group of people past a certain size, which is 75 to 100 people,

they don't know each other.

Okay.

They start to become different.

And then you lose those relationships, you lose a lot, and so on.

I found it because

at the holiday season every year, what I would do is I would write everybody

notes, long notes in their cards, and I would pick an individualized holiday gift for them.

And when it got to be the 67 people, I remember the year, it broke my back.

I mean, I just couldn't do it.

Okay.

And I realized that at that point, I was

going into another frame.

Okay.

And so it's an organizational reality that you can keep that group and then what you have to do is then you have different those different areas and you have to create cohesiveness between those different and cohesiveness common mission and how do you do that between that so like for example when we would have our holiday party where it used to be everybody would be you know, sort of go in and you have a holiday party and everybody together.

What I found out is we had a big arena that we would go to, and I'd have both.

I'd have, okay,

that department is in that area and whatever.

And then they come out and they all mingle together and so on.

So there's an organizational

thing that you've got to realize in terms of culture and management of that.

It's like villages in a city, I guess.

Like, you basically keep build the villages and then good example.

Yeah.

Interesting.

Okay.

Yeah.

Our media company is at that exact point now.

It's at

that 90, 90 odd people.

Oh, okay.

There you are.

So when you said 75 to 100, I was like, ah, interesting.

I was thinking about all the things I should be doing now to counteract some of those adverse effects of the culture splintering or relationships breaking down.

But I guess you've described it there.

Interesting.

And I have to say, one of the things that I found to be most, I'm 33 years old.

I just turned 33 last week.

It's crazy how

often people say that hiring is the most important thing.

Yet when you look at what entrepreneurs are spending their time on, it's usually like the product, the marketing, et cetera.

And it's maybe like one or two hours, in some cases, if they're lucky, on finding truly exceptional people.

They often just outsource it to someone else, the recruitment team.

When you think back through your career, how important was it to find truly exceptional people?

Of course.

Well, I systemized it.

First of all,

I think that anything I do or one does can be systemized.

So I would think, what are the personalities?

What are the backgrounds of the people that I'm hiring?

What are the choices?

How do I specify it?

And I've, and I got it by also maintaining a lot of data with people.

There's a TED talk I did that

explains how like data, everybody's going around and they're operating in a certain way.

So I know what people are like.

If you know what people are like, you know what you can expect of them.

And then I would then say

in a a very data way, those people who are successful in these jobs have the following attributes that would create a job spec specifications for that type of job.

So I knew that in that type of job, there would be that type of person I'm looking for.

Okay.

What works?

They work.

Okay, data.

And then I would find, that would be my job spec.

And so we had the systems.

And then we had some people who were responsible for doing that because you're right, it takes time.

How can I interview all those people and so on?

But who can you trust?

And you're operating that way.

And then the evaluation process doesn't stop when you hire them.

Okay, the evaluation process continues from that moment.

And you still learn more about what they're like.

And you do that same process and still think, would I still have hired them?

And if I wouldn't have hired them

in the first place, then they shouldn't be there.

And so I have a process and people, people in process.

Do people change after a certain point?

So if you've hired someone in six months and 12 months and they haven't changed, is it worth giving them another year?

Is it worth a performance review?

I found out that

for me, the big question mostly, there were two big questions, but

the big question is, how do you adapt to my culture?

And that would take about 18 months to find out.

Like, can you speak honestly about what, can we have thoughtful disagreement?

Do you like this evolutionary process where you're challenged and all of this kind of thing?

That culture.

That'd take about 18 months.

And then roughly speaking, then learning about the people.

their strengths and weaknesses would take 18 months, two years, maybe something along along those lines.

And so

then, you know, you could pretty much decide.

But always being open every day by day, so nobody's surprised that you're always talking about things.

You know, how's it going?

Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself.

I'm inviting 10,000 of you to come even deeper into the diary of a CEO.

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AI is a bit of an alien that seems to have entered the room

and has is going to change almost every industry.

Great.

Yeah.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

No.

Truly.

If you are

working with it, controlling it, if it's a good partner to be able to get a lot of leverage, it's truly fantastic.

As I said, in almost everything I did, we had the criteria, we had the systemized, would you do that?

Would you not do that?

How did you know, how does reality work?

What are the principles?

And so it's a fantastic leveraging.

Like I described, you know, I would make the decision-making model, like the computer chess game that would make it.

Well, now it's better than ever, those resources.

So it leverages you enormously.

What about having a strong middle?

We talked about having the strong sort of economic political middle.

Political middle.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Is it going to drive inequality?

Yes, it's going to, that's like all good, like all things, it's going to be,

it has good things and bad things.

And we were talking, let's say, first about managing and doing that.

I think in managing and knowing what people are like and how they're all, it's going to be very, very valuable, mostly very valuable.

In terms of changing,

there'll be

a limited number of winners and a bunch of losers.

And I think it's going to create much greater polarity, which as we're seeing

through the system, the ways that we talked about, you know, that top 1% to 10%

benefiting a lot.

And then, you know, so that will be a dividing force, I think.

It's got to pose the question, with robotics accelerating at the speed of light, with Optimus and Tesla and all the things they're doing and all these other companies, humanoid robots, and then with artificial intelligence, having trillions of dollars plowed into it and accelerating, we're in this crazy boom at the moment.

With these two things combining, you're going to be able to have a humanoid robot that can navigate human spaces, but is also smarter than I am.

Lawyers, accountants,

lots of people in the medical profession.

Why would one need them?

if we had a humanoid robot that is smarter than all of us and has a PhD and everything.

Well, we will not need a lot of those jobs for the reasons that you're saying.

Okay.

And then the question is, what our society does.

And what do you think we do in such a world?

I think we fight over about what we do, unfortunately.

But as I say,

I don't think we have escaped a world where

most people,

to have a healthy society, most people have to be productive

and prosperous.

I think people need to be...

Now, certainly,

and there certainly needs to be a redistribution

policy.

I don't think that's just a redistribution of money policy because

uselessness and money may not be a great combination.

So I think that

has to be figured out.

And the question is whether we're too too fragmented to figure that out and agree on it.

And I'm worried about that.

Interesting times.

Is there any historical precedence for this, in your view?

Someone that knows history, is there any historical precedence for something like AI and robotics converging?

Well

through

evolution

We have gone from a period of time, which was called the Dark Ages or the Agricultural Age, in which

basically

there was land, it's agricultural and so on.

And people were treated, they were essentially like oxen, most people.

And then there were the landowners who were the nobles, and then there were the royalty who were the families that control most things and so on.

And then in history, with the

invention of the printing press, there became more knowledge,

more intelligence.

And we see an evolution in which you start to see new ages emerge and thinking emerge and power change.

And I won't take you through the whole history, but you start to see that individuals can be clever enough to earn money.

So you begin the age of exploration and the industrial revolutions in which machines replaced people and it's almost like they first replaced them physically that um in other words they didn't have they were not like oxen doing the thing so you get a tractor or something and and it's almost like from the body up

in terms of the mind and so you've seen that evolution through time and the rise of intelligence in its various forms go through this arc

of rising in intelligence.

And now you see that intelligence matters more than anything, okay?

It matters more than money.

It matters more than anything because intelligence will attract people, those with money, to invest in the development of that.

And so we have seen this arc through history develop in that way, right?

And we've seen people replaced.

Now the question is, as we get higher and and higher in thinking, okay, whether we've run out of capacity to shift or whether we're just going to be totally replaced.

Our muscles have been totally replaced, but okay, as this is happening, our best thinking may be totally replaced, and we're going to have to deal with that question.

Are you hopeful?

I'm excited.

I'm,

I think it all comes down to human nature.

Okay, I'm excited in that

fast forward, make the most of it, jump on it, whoo, you know, I'm excited.

I've also watched the evolution of species.

Almost all species have come and gone for certain reasons.

And they, one of the reasons that they come, have come and gone, is because almost their strengths are not in all respects great strengths.

You can use these things, intelligence, to your detriment.

And I believe that

the things that these technologies and so on bring us, while very important, it extends life expectancy and all of that.

is not as important as human nature.

And so if you were to go back in time and we're in different societies, do you have happier societies?

Is the well-being greater?

Okay, so you can go 50 years ago and you might say the well-being is greater 50 years ago, not in all ways, not in

many ways, the technologies and the consequences of those are much better, but you may have had a better life.

And it's human nature of how people are going to deal with each other.

So, I think the real question is: can people rise above this?

And which goes back to the spirituality question, can people then rise above it so that they think of the collective good and they think of, you know, collectively, how do we make the best?

And also karma.

you know, in other words,

the realization that if I help you in ways that can be so simple for me to help you make such a big difference in your life and you do do the same and we have win-win relationships, it'll be good.

But if we don't do that, and I worry about human nature and I worry about this process.

Especially when you've got geopolitical tensions.

It's because of human nature.

I've had a lot of conversations on the podcast about AI and I just can't seem to get to my own solid conclusion about this because when I look at human nature, as you say, I see greed, I see power, hunger, status.

Yeah, some problems.

Just accept the fact that you may not be able to be confident about a prediction in the future, so it'll always be a question.

And just get on with the fact of using it for yourself in the best way that works for you.

That's what I'm doing.

We have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next, not knowing who they're leaving it for.

You know this person

because I've seen you with them.

The question they left for you is: what is a book or books that you've recommended or gifted more than others?

And why?

Can't say your own book.

Right.

There are three books.

There's a book on evolution, but written by Richard Dawkins,

River from

Eden, I think it's called.

Then a book by

Will and Ariel Durant, which are maybe the greatest historians in time.

And it's called Lessons from History.

It's a very short book.

I think it's 104 pages.

They wrote massive amounts about 5,000 years of history and so on, and they sort of condensed their lessons, Lessons from History.

And then

Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey.

Is it the hero with a thousand faces?

Yes, that's it.

The hero with a thousand faces.

And why Dawkins' book?

Why did you say that one?

Oh, he understands evolution.

Everything is evolving.

Okay, all species.

Man is one of 10,000 species.

I mean, and they're all structured similarly.

There's a structure.

You know, like

two eyes, a brain that has a structure to it,

and the same parts of the brain.

There's the cerebrum, the cerebellum, the prefrontal cortex.

There's this structure that makes you think differently and so on.

There's evolution.

There's all evolution.

So it's not just limited to

human evolution or what humans are like.

It's the force of evolution.

Man is only

mankind's only about 200,000 years old.

In history, that's short, okay?

And the species, and all species evolve, okay?

And it's very interesting.

So that's, you know, that's what his books are about.

And, you know, I think they're very good.

And Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey, The Hero with the Hours.

It's about human nature and the evolution of life and the life journey that we're talking about.

What I find so interesting, Ray, is how you draw on principles from other domains, whether it's from nature or biology, as you were talking about there,

to tie into

your work in business and investing and everything else and life and happiness.

And it really says something to me about

being more eclectic and broadly curious in order to be successful in my more narrow.

yeah i just

see i i don't is that to me maybe too much of a specialist kind of mentality but the world is being interrelated to these things if you want to understand how reality works um you can't say i'm going to be just a specialist

i mean these are all affected by each other

thank you so much for writing for writing these books they are iconic and uh the youtube videos that explain these these these books are iconic.

I don't know who you have on your team that makes the animations and pulls it all together, but not only is the content so important because they are principles, so they're enduring through time, but they're so unbelievably accessible to all people of all ages.

And if people haven't read this book, I'd be shocked.

But

all of these books are fantastic.

This book, Principles by Ray Dalia, which I'm going to link all of them below for anyone that wants to read them.

I suggest you read them all.

Will be formative in your life, even if you're not interested in business or investing, because as it says on the book, they're principles and the economy affects us all in ways that we might not understand.

We're all trying to be successful or happy in our own right.

And that's interwoven into all of these books.

So thank you.

I hope you write more books.

Well, and thank you because, yeah, I'm at a stage in my life.

This is a symbiotic relationship.

Otherwise, we wouldn't be here.

Okay.

And

my benefit is that I want to pass along these things and we're doing it together.

And I have found, and it's joyous to me, to know that these things have made a big difference difference in people's lives.

People come up to me and they say, thank you for the difference you've made.

And, you know, at this stage in my life, that's what I want to do.

I think that's an understatement.

I think it's had a profound impact.

In fact, every person I know, all of my best friends have taken something from your work, which has had a profound impact on their decision-making, which has led them to be happier in some way.

And when I told my friends that I was interviewing you, I'm interviewing 16 people while I'm in New York over the next month.

When I told my friends, my best friends in the world that I'm interviewing you, all of them were telling me to pass on a message of thanks because there's something in one of these books that's helped them.

And they're all young people in that first season of their life.

And there's something in all of these books that's pushed them closer to their success and their happiness.

So thank you for it on behalf of me because you've had a profound impact on me.

But thank you for giving me that joy.

I know I mean, I know that.

Thank you.

I really, really mean that.

Thank you so much, Ray.

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