Why Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Matters Nationally

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I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And Anya Van Wagtendonk of Wisconsin Public Radio is with us from Madison.
Hi, Anya. Hey.
Today on the show, we are looking at Wisconsin's upcoming Supreme Court election on April 1st, which is turning into a very expensive fight over the balance of power on the state's high court. And Anya, we are talking about a state Supreme Court race, but the stakes are high.
There are two candidates. Tell us about them and why this race matters for the court's composition.
Yeah, so there's essentially they're representing both ends of the ideological spectrum. There's Brad Schimmel, who is the conservative candidate.
He's currently a judge in Waukesha County, which is a suburb of Milwaukee, former Republican attorney general. And before that, he was a DA.
And then there's Susan Crawford, who is the liberal candidate. She's a judge in Dane County.
That's where the capital city of Madison is. She used to work for a Democratic attorney general and a Democratic governor.
And she's also worked in private practice for clients, including Planned Parenthood. And so they really do represent kind of the two sides of the ideological spectrum in that way.
It's a nonpartisan race, but they're backed by the political parties. And they're running to determine the ideological majority on the court.
It's currently a 4-3 liberal majority. A liberal justice is retiring.
And so whoever wins decides, does the court lean liberal or conservative? And then they'll be deciding upcoming cases on issues like abortion and labor rights. And so whoever wins this race could essentially determine which way cases like that go.
It is sort of a remarkable thing that we are talking about a judicial race, but we are definitely talking about ideology, political ideology. A hundred percent.
Yeah. And this this has been it's kind of become the theme of Wisconsin judicial elections.
Again, even though they're nonpartisan, there's a lot of signaling of which way you'll kind of lean as a justice. Is this race being fought on local state issues like the ones you mentioned or on national ones? Like what are the big areas that they're talking about? Yeah, it's been really interesting.
You know, abortion is definitely a central theme of the race, which I think we've seen a lot of in judicial races here and elsewhere in the country over the last couple of years since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
These two candidates are both clearly on different sides of that issue. But when you turn on your TV, or in my case, you know, YouTube, many of the ads are about crime, which is almost more a local judge issue than a state Supreme Court issue.
And so that's been really surprising. And then both candidates have also just been really going after the other for being too partisan.
Like both are kind of saying, I'm the measured objective jurist, and my opponent is a partisan, even though they are both entirely propped up by millions of dollars in donations from, like I said, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, and then many partisan interest groups, including national political parties and national mega donors. Yeah, and this is one of those races that people are watching nationally, number one, because there's no other race going on right now.
And this is the first opportunity for Democrats and liberals to kind of register their frustration with Trump, but also what's become a big issue in this race, Elon Musk and his emergence in leading DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, and the millions of dollars he's pouring into this race, as well as millions of dollars that are coming from outside on the left that are really kind of putting musk in the spotlight and raises a lot of questions. Yeah, Anya, why don't you put some dollars and cents on that, though I know it is a rapidly changing landscape because more money just keeps pouring in.
Yeah, what I can say is there is so much money being spent in this race. As of last week, the race broke records last set here in Wisconsin two years ago.
So about $60 million we think so far have been spent. But there are new estimates that up to $100 million will have been spent by the time this is all said and done.
So that's just really crazy for a springtime judicial race, as Domenico just said. And lots of big donations are coming from those outside groups.
So Elon Musk, as we just mentioned, is backing Schimmel. He's so far spent more than $11 million.
It's quite notable. You see other conservative groups backing Schimmel as well.
And then on Crawford's side, you're seeing millions spent through the Democratic Party and big donations from people like George Soros and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker.
And that's been another point of contention in this race is what does it mean to get these big donations? Will it sway their decisions on the court, especially if donors end up filing lawsuits or being involved in lawsuits? For example, Elon Musk and Tesla has filed a lawsuit here to get to open Tesla dealerships. It's a wonky state law kind of situation.
So Crawford and her supporters have argued that Musk is basically trying to buy a judge on the Supreme Court in order to win a suit that will help his business. And Schimmel and his backers, of course, have made similar arguments about Crawford's support from the Democratic Party and especially groups that support abortion access.
Somebody sent me some of the literature that's being distributed by Elon Musk's group for Schimmel. And, you know, there's a picture of Donald Trump on it.
And it alludes to Trump's battle with judges to try to get his agenda through, saying that, you know, Schimmel will be good for Trump's agenda. It's sort of a remarkable thing.
Yeah. And that's kind of one of the open questions in this race is whether Trump will endorse Schimmel and to what extent this would be a continuation of the Trump election of November or whether this is an opportunity for Democrats or liberals to kind of show what they are doing in response to the Trump victory.
And remember, you know, Wisconsin is a swing state. I mean, 2028 is pretty far away.
But, you know, the Supreme Court in a state, you know, can make decisions on things like how elections are conducted, how congressional districts are drawn. Of course, there are more local things like collective bargaining that have been at stake in Wisconsin as well.
So a lot of issues that we could see fought over, not just statewide, but have importance nationally. All right, let's take a quick break and we'll have more in a moment.
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And, Domenico, this is a state election, but it is the first one since the presidential election last November. So does this become like a proxy referendum for how people are feeling about Democrats and Republicans? Who's energized? Who's not? You know, even though the two candidates are officially nonpartisan? Well, I mean, you know, we say this every time that there's a special election or a local election at this level, you know, in and off here.
But, you know, you don't want to overread the potential results from these kinds of elections. But they are an indicator of the activism on either side, right? I mean, in the era of Obama, when there were special elections, and Republicans did very well, it certainly told us that the energy and enthusiasm was on Republican side, a lot of special elections.
During the Trump years, we saw Democrats do well, and Democrats certainly did well in midterms as well. It doesn't always shake out that way, and there are plenty of examples that you could find for that.
But this is, you know, the first, like you said, temperature check of the activism within the Democratic base. And there's been so many questions right now about the Democratic base, whether or not they're enthused with the party.
You know, we've seen a raft of polling just in the past week that shows Democratic favorability ratings at all-time lows, at historic lows. I mean, 29% in CNN's poll, 27% in NBC's poll, and that has to do with Democratic respondents.
So this is going to be a test, not just of money, and there's plenty of it to go around in this race, but whether or not Democrats can get people out to the polls in an off year in a lower turnout election, which could be an indicator for how well they do or not in 2026. And Anya, there have been surrogates going into Wisconsin campaigning.
There was Donald Trump Jr. and Charlie Kirk.
Tim Walls, the Minnesota governor and VP candidate from the last cycle, was there just yesterday. Yeah.
And, you know, I think Wisconsinites get campaigned to so much. Obviously, last year's election was just kind of nonstop coming through Wisconsin.
And so I also have this question of whether voters are revved up, as Domenico asked, or whether they're kind of exhausted and worn down. You know, I work out of the state capitol, and we're used to protests coming through kind of all the time.
But the protests have also been a little bit muted over the last little while. And so I'll be really curious to see whether that translates to, even though $100 million might get spent, does that translate to anything interesting in terms of turnout? Or will it end up just being an April election? And you're seeing a lot of voters, frankly, when they're going to the polls here.
And Anya, I don't know if you're seeing this too, but I've certainly read a lot of accounts of people sort of talking about national issues in why they're casting their ballot. And that's really a fascinating thing about how all politics in many ways has become national.
Absolutely. Especially again in swing state Wisconsin, which I think often sees itself as a little bit of a bellwether for the rest of the nation.

I do want to talk a little bit more about the Musk of it all, because Elon Musk is this big figure. He spent a lot of money to help get President Trump elected.
He now has his Doge team making cuts in the government and he's sort of everywhere.

He's ever present and he's also ever present in this race.

Domenico, do you see anything about how Musk is playing? And he's sort of everywhere. He's ever present.
And he's also ever present in this race.

Domenico, do you see anything about how Musk is playing in this race that might tell us something about whether he plans to continue to be active in politics, whether 2024 was a one-off for him or whether this is a new part of the way he is going to play in politics? It seems like a new identity for Musk because, you know, he was pretty new to politics in the 2024 cycle. And here he is playing again.
I mean, he donated something like a quarter billion dollars to Donald Trump's campaign efforts and the efforts to get him elected. So in a lot of ways, yeah, we talk about this as potentially a referendum on Trump and Musk, but he's inserted himself pretty boldly in this race where it is becoming sort of a test of Musk and of Trump.
And, you know, in our poll, in the NPR PBS News Marist poll, Musk's favorability rating was at 39 percent. So really not very popular with most people.
Early voting has already started. And so it's also just kind of interesting the way in which national attention is here.
Obviously, for myself as a political reporter, I'm thinking about this and paying attention to it all the time. And your average voter might not necessarily see it at the level of stakes that we kind of attribute it to.
All right, Anya, thank you so much for your reporting. Thanks for having me.

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
I'm Domenico Montanaro,

senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.