No Budging From Congressional Leaders As Government Shutdown Begins

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It's the NPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Miles Parks.

I cover voting.

I'm Claudia Grizales.

I cover Congress.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

And today on the show, it is day one of the government shutdown.

How long will it last and where do we go from here?

Claudia, let's just start there.

Where are we at with these negotiations and what is the latest?

Well, there really aren't any.

It really signals the deep partisan rift that we're seeing here after months of building distrust and acrimony on Capitol Hill on both sides.

So in terms of the closest exit ramp, Republicans are just hoping that they can continue voting on the same stop cap measure over and over and get enough votes to get over this filibuster threshold.

They need 60 votes and they need about seven to eight Democrats to join them.

So they did it again today and both times, last night, today, it failed.

And so they didn't see any new Democratic defections.

We've seen three from the other side so far, Nevada's Catherine Cortez-Masto, the independent senator from Maine, Angus King, as well as another Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

But we didn't see any additional Democrats.

So just a signal that they're holding on to their demands for Republicans to hold bipartisan talks to address rising health care costs.

And so while we saw three defections from the the Democratic side with the senators, Republicans also have to contend with one member who will continually vote no, fiscal conservative.

This is Rand Paul of Kentucky.

That's why potentially they're going to need an extra Democratic member to join them.

Well, it's interesting because we could have had this fight potentially in March, but Democrats decided then to vote to avoid a shutdown.

How is that vote shaping what we're seeing happening right now?

Right.

It really is shaping almost everything here because Democrats paid the price.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saw a lot of fallout, a lot of backlash from their base, from their rank and file members.

It was just another reminder of a continuing complaint from voters that Democrats are not doing enough.

So this has been building up all year long in terms of the Democrats taking this stand.

And we'll see how long they'll go.

However, it's going to be quite the pressure test here.

Yeah, and look, I think that there's been for a while Democrats kind of irritated with other Democrats.

In our new NPR PBS News Maris poll, Democrats in Congress only get a 25% approval rating, and that's because only 48% of Democrats approve of Democrats, of the job that they're doing.

Compare that to Republicans.

Republicans are 30 points more likely to say that they approve of the job that Republicans are doing in Congress.

So that's what makes the difference where Republicans have a 35% approval rating, slightly higher.

And I spoke to a couple of voters from our poll.

Robert Jenkins is a Democrat from Pennsylvania who talked about his frustration with the Democratic Party and how they're just seemingly not able to fight back against Republicans.

I think they're spineless.

I really do.

I think that they're getting run all over by the Republicans.

It's just fight back.

You know what I mean?

Fight back as far as what's going on.

But when I asked him, do you want the government to be shut down?

He said no.

So I think that it's really this catch-22 that Democrats are in where they want to feel like the party is fighting, that they're maybe winning the message war, which they're not, but yet they don't want to shut the government down.

They understand that there's limited options to being able to counter Republicans.

Right.

This is one of those leverage points as the minority party is the possibility of being able to force a government shutdown.

And Claudia, Democrats are focusing on health insurance subsidies through the Affordable Care Act that are set to expire at the end of the year.

Can you remind us a little bit about what these subsidies are, how many people rely on them, and what would be the impact if they do expire?

Right.

And this kind of goes to Domenico's point is that those kind of details Democrats haven't really shared readily.

So it's kind of hard to follow the argument of the widespread impact they're talking about.

I had to dig through a lot of statements from a lot of members to find some numbers and see what they're saying.

We know that the House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has argued that more than 20 million Americans are on the verge of experiencing rising health care costs because of Republicans' refusal to extend the subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year for the Affordable Care Act.

But when you look at other Democrats, it's hard to get a sense for the overall impact in terms of how much is this.

I saw one member say that the costs could rise by 65% in terms of what families could see in terms of increasing premiums.

For example, a family of four making $64,000 a year would see their premiums increase by more than $2,500.

But again, it's hard to dig up these details.

Democrats are just saying the subsidies need to be extended.

But in terms of the specifics and who it's impacting, it's a little harder to find out.

Interesting.

Well, and Republicans...

My understanding is that they say that they are open to negotiating on these healthcare subsidies.

They just don't want the government to be held hostage, as Vice President J.D.

Vance put it.

What do Democrats say to that when Republicans say, no, we're open to talking about this, just not as part of this?

Right, because the stopgap measure that Republicans are pushing does run out before the subsidies expire at the end of the year.

This stopgap measure will end in November.

So they think they can find time in November to address it.

However, Democrats argue that by then it will be too late for families that are planning on their health care plans for next year, and they will either have lost their insurance by the time this takes effect or they're going to be pretty desperate in terms of finding ways to pay for these new premiums.

Well, and it feels like there is a clear level of broken trust, right, in Congress.

I mean, it might be an understatement.

Just also part of that comes from how President Trump has operated when it comes to withholding money that Congress, for instance, has allocated, things like that.

I feel like I wonder how much does that play into Democrats being unwilling to take Republicans at their word when they say, no, we'll talk about this later.

Yeah, this is a pretty rare shutdown in terms of how much grievance politics is a part of this fight.

How do they find their way out of this?

That's really difficult, and it just is a signal to the rock bottom where Congress is today in terms of bipartisan talks when it comes to the budget.

We already saw, for example, Russell Vogt, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, say that he would look at restricting funds for certain places such as New York and maybe trying to cross lines when it comes to the power of the purse.

Now, we're not sure that any of this could actually be enacted, if they could play favorites in terms of who gets funding where, but we have also seen this administration break a lot of boundaries and potentially they may try to break the power of the purse boundary while this shutdown is ongoing too.

All right, well, let's take a quick break and more on all of this when we get back.

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and we're back and we've been talking about the government shutdown that begins today.

And Claudia I'm hoping we can zoom in on the real implications that people are going to start feeling in their communities as a result of this shutdown.

Can you talk about that a little bit?

Yeah, in terms of what everyday Americans may see, there may be a delayed impact when they see agencies feel that pain from having the lights turned out.

Now, for example, the Smithsonian Museums will actually stay open another week.

So we're seeing agencies try to adjust, but at the same time, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are now furloughed today.

Some have gone into work, maybe they check in remotely and they have a few hours to do an orderly shutdown.

That means closing down any kind of loops that they have open if possible or sending notifications that they will not be available during this time.

And then they are done for, you know, the unforeseeable future, depending on how long this shutdown lasts.

And so as that trickles down to affect public services, that's when Americans could see impacts maybe starting next week that could become more clear.

At the same time, the workers who are staying on, they've been designated critical employees, they will get paid later.

So when it comes to these critical services that will not go, that will will not be halted, that includes airport security personnel, air traffic controllers, and also programs like Social Security, Medicare, those payments will continue to go out and national security programs will stay in place and continue.

How does the fact that the Trump administration has made it clear that they could potentially use this shutdown as cover to fire more federal workers, how does that play into this?

Does that increase, I guess, the urgency for Democrats to potentially get the government funded again?

Or how is that playing into this?

Yeah, that's what they're betting on, that it will indeed increase the pressure on Democrats.

And that's why Republicans in the Senate are really betting on just a few more Democratic senators folding and joining them to overcome this filibuster.

So how that is executed, that will really impact how soon we could see Democrats move differently through this.

Right now, they're holding to their demands, but it's really going to be difficult when they start to see firings.

This is exactly why they didn't go into allowing a shutdown earlier this year.

This was their argument.

Schumer and others said that workers would be fired, and they didn't want to see that happen.

You know, so much of how people get out of shutdowns is because people feel the effects of them and who they wind up blaming for it.

So if most of the blame goes toward President Trump, as it did in the 2019 shutdown, that was the longest shutdown in American history, lasted over a month, then you saw Trump had more of an urgency or a reason to want to have to negotiate with Democrats.

If that's not the case this time, then this could go on for quite some time.

But if people start to feel like they're not getting through the airport or they can't go to national parks they want to go to or whatever else winds up happening and who they blame for that is how you're going to see

maybe the pathway for how the country gets out of the government shutdown.

Well, there is new polling on that, right?

Domenico, I mean, what does the new polling out this week say about how people are going to perceive the shutdown?

Aaron Powell, Jr.: And it's from us, the NPR PBS News Maris poll.

What it finds is that Republicans would get more of the blame.

38% of people say that they would blame Republicans.

27% say that they would blame Democrats more.

And 31%, though, say that they would blame both parties equally.

That's very different than 2019, like I was saying, that Trump was getting most of the blame.

There was an Ipsos poll, for example, back in that time.

51% said that they were blaming President Trump for the shutdown.

So, you know, the problem here is that nobody's really popular, right?

Everybody in Washington is seen as not doing their job really well.

We talked about Democrats a little bit earlier and the problems that they're having, but Trump has a 41% approval rating.

It's his lowest of this second term so far.

His base, though, is rock solid, right behind him.

87% say that they back President Trump.

Republicans in Congress, only a 35% approval rating, but again, 77% of Republicans back Republicans.

The problem really is with Democrats having a 25% approval rating and only having half of your party back you, that makes for a more difficult way to be able to message in any kind of messaging war because you wind up not everybody being in lockstep.

Well, that's what I was going to ask is like how much this poll was taken before the shutdown actually went into effect.

So now there's this push from both sides to effectively blame the other for the shutdown.

Claudia, can you kind of describe how both sides are messaging on this?

Right.

Even though, for example, the House is away from a recess that began last week, we're seeing House leadership make plans to hold daily press conferences to send that message out that Democrats are to blame.

Meanwhile, Democrats are doing their own efforts at putting out the message that Republicans are to blame.

So it'll be interesting to see if those poll numbers that Domenico went over will hold or will people turn on Democrats and say, listen, I don't fully understand the argument.

I don't know how many people are going to be impacted.

Can we just end this?

And if we remember from the last shutdown, which Domenico mentioned, what brought it to an end was air traffic controllers calling in sick and not showing up and causing actual disruptions in flights.

And that's kind of that daily disruption that could really play a role here this time around.

Aaron Powell, Jr.: You know, I think the politics of this are going to be really fascinating to watch because in this information age, are press conferences, you know, the way to really break through?

I think Democrats in particular have had this, I don't know if it's a word, but I'm going to make it up, a virality problem, right?

When you open your Instagram feed, you know, it's harder, it seems, for Democrats to break through with their messaging, being able to say what they want to pick apart for what they think is a problem for how Republicans are handling this.

And it's going to be a challenge for them because they've had this challenge challenge since Barack Obama left the White House and the information atmosphere has completely changed since Obama's left with the social media and all of that.

It was a big problem for President Biden, who really wasn't able to get the message out, be able to make the argument.

And that's what this is going to be like kind of the first example of whether or not Democrats find their voice and find someone or people who are able to really encapsulate what their argument is.

But I feel like President Trump went viral this week for a video that spread false information and was widely considered to be racist.

And yet you're saying that basically it's a problem that Democrats aren't going viral, even though President Trump is doing it in a way that is false and offensive.

Aaron Powell, and that can produce backlash toward Trump as well, which is why his approval rating is as low as it is, where you have 31% of independents who say that they approve of the job he's doing.

And it's just a base play with the way Trump operates.

And that kind of video is not exactly the kind of thing that indicates he's serious about negotiating.

And we should note, I guess, there's an AI video where Chuck Schumer says something that he doesn't actually

say.

And Sakeem Jeffries is portrayed with a sombrero, I think.

A sombrero, a mustache, and a mariachi band in the back.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And also, when it comes to Republicans and messaging, Domenico's right that Democrats have failed with this virality, if I can steal your term, issue, but Republicans have not, even when they're spreading false and offensive information.

And that video is a great example.

And Democrats still struggle to keep up with that.

And And we should say the idea that the White House seems to be pushing with this video is that Democrats support paying for health insurance for immigrants without legal status, which, as you said, Claudia, is not accurate.

And I think Democrats struggle to push back, but it is a hard thing to debunk, it seems.

And these are serious issues that are, frankly, treated sometimes with a real lack of seriousness.

I mean, you're talking about people and getting health care, whether they're able to survive and be able to pay for their family, to be able to go to the doctor.

It's a very serious thing that sometimes can be boiled down to really superficial points when it comes to our politics.

Well, we are about a year away from midterms.

Any ideas to both of you about how this shutdown will or will not impact midterm results?

Well, I think it's going to be tough in terms of the length of the shutdown.

Let's say it lasts a week.

It probably won't have much of an impact at all, other than reinforcing this argument as we heard Domenico play that tape from that voter saying that Democrats are spineless.

It'll just bolster that argument a little bit more.

If this goes on and Democrats do not get a payoff, it could still hurt them as much.

But Republicans at the same time, they could use this as a moment to show that they're still steamrolling Democrats and getting a lot of what they want done.

You know, I found this fascinating.

I went and looked up all of the shutdowns that have happened in the last 50 years.

And, you know, Democrats ran the House from 1945, basically, all the way through 1995.

And, you know, they obviously were in control when there were several of these shutdowns.

But since 1995, all of the shutdowns that have happened, now seven are when Republicans have controlled the House.

The last four have been under President Trump.

So how much do people blame Republicans for that to say, hey, you guys have been in charge when these things have happened?

Or do they punish Democrats for losing the messaging war, let's say?

But I think when it comes to the midterms, there's not a huge impact from shutdowns generally toward which party wins in the midterms the next year.

2013 is a good example.

You know, 2014, Republicans still were able to win pretty big in those midterms, but you had a Democratic president, and usually the midterms are tough on the party in power.

And I think, number one, the economy is still going to be the big issue, prices.

Where is all that at in a year?

Yeah.

All right.

Well, let's leave it there for today.

I'm Miles Parks.

I cover voting.

I'm Claudia Grizeles.

I cover Congress.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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Time to catch one last squiggly snack before bedtime.

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