Democrats See Big Election Wins From California To New York City

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I'm Tamara Keith, senior White House correspondent.

Speaker 4 I'm Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

Speaker 5 And I'm Mara Lyasson, Senior National Political Correspondent.

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Speaker 3 So there were big wins for Democrats up and down the ballot last night in the states that had elections. And today we are unpacking those election results.
And can I just start with this?

Speaker 3 Were you two surprised by the results? Because I have to say, I was a bit surprised by how significant the margins were.

Speaker 5 I was surprised. It shows there's a lot of enthusiasm on the Democratic side, giant turnouts, big margins.
A lot of people expected Democrats to win, but they were watching to see by how much.

Speaker 5 And I think we learned last night that the political laws of gravity have not been repealed.

Speaker 5 When you have an unpopular president whose policies are unpopular and people are dissatisfied with the economy and the cost of living, that president's party, the incumbent party, loses.

Speaker 5 And that law has not been repealed. There's something called the thermostatic rule of politics.
You know, when a party is way up, the next cycle, voters correct that and take them down.

Speaker 4 You know, elections usually do tip in one direction or the other.

Speaker 4 And, you know, I think I was more surprised at just how wide the sweep of Democratic wins were up and down the ballot across the country, you know, everything from these marquee governors races all the way down to the Georgia Public Service Commission.

Speaker 3 So let's go race by race here, starting in Virginia, where Democrats regain the governor's mansion.

Speaker 3 Abigail Spanberger will be the state's first female governor, beating Winsom Earl Sears, who is the outgoing lieutenant governor. Dominico, what were your big takeaways from that race?

Speaker 4 Well, big shocker, MAGA doesn't work in a state that leans left.

Speaker 4 I mean, you know, the Republican in that race, Winsom Earl Sears, you know, know, really ran a race that was centered around a lot of culture war issues.

Speaker 4 It just didn't feel like it was on a message for what the state really has been trending toward.

Speaker 4 And Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat, obviously, she just seemed to run a race that seemed more in line with what Virginia has trended toward.

Speaker 4 Glenn Young, who's the current governor, the outgoing Republican governor, when he ran, you know, for this office four years ago, he ran kind of a similar race race in some respects to Spanberger, where he was trying to reach out to independents and even some Democrats.

Speaker 4 You didn't really see that from Sears, but you did see that from Spanberger.

Speaker 5 You know, what stuck out for me in Virginia was that the scandal-plagued Democratic Attorney General candidate won anyway. And that shows you this is a kind of Democratic wave.

Speaker 5 Now, look, we freight these off-year elections up with too much meaning. They're not necessarily predictive, but that was interesting to me.

Speaker 5 The other thing that I thought that Virginia told us is that the shutdown message of the Republicans, which is that it's all the Democrats' fault, didn't matter.

Speaker 5 And if it was going to matter, you'd think it would matter in a state like Virginia, where there are tons and tons of federal workers who have either been fired or furloughed.

Speaker 3 Right.

Speaker 3 And in fact, Spanberger made the Trump administration and its policies and its effect on federal workers one of the issues in the campaign, a campaign that was very focused on economic issues, kitchen table issues, some of those things that, you know, like there's sort of a divide in the Democratic Party about what they should be focusing on.

Speaker 3 Spanberger is like a classic case of what the people who say focus on the kitchen table, focus on the economy, focus on quality of life.

Speaker 5 Well, you know, what's so interesting about this big so-called civil war inside the Democratic Party, whether

Speaker 5 you should go left or centrist, you have to do both. And Abigail Spanberger made the cost of living, kitchen table issues, the centerpiece of her campaign, and she tied it to Trump.

Speaker 5 She didn't just run an anti-Trump campaign.

Speaker 5 She tied what he's doing in Washington, how he's enriching himself and his friends, how he's cutting taxes for billionaires, but not making it harder for you to buy groceries, et cetera.

Speaker 5 She managed to put those two things together. And I think that's the big takeaway for Democrats who are wondering about what their message should be.

Speaker 4 I also thought, though, in this race, in the closing days, how much abortion rights was used in closing ads, up and down the ballot, I think really showed how much Democrats still feel that there's strength in that issue as well.

Speaker 3 Let's talk about New Jersey. That's a state where President Trump did endorse the Republican candidate, Jack Chitterelli.
The thought was that it was going to be a much closer race.

Speaker 3 As we're taping, Cheryl is up by 13 points. That is a much wider margin than most people were expecting.

Speaker 5 That was the biggest surprise because New Jersey had been very, very close the last time Jack Chitterelli tried to be the governor. He lost, but not by much.

Speaker 5 And Mikey Sherrill was not considered as talented a candidate as Abigail Spanberger, but she won by a whopping margin. And I think that's a real blow to Republicans.

Speaker 3 You said you were going to be watching how Latino voters in New Jersey turned out and who they voted for. What's your big take there?

Speaker 4 Yeah, it really became a big storyline, frankly. I mean, you know, this was a group that Jack Chitterelli and his campaign thought that they could target.

Speaker 4 I mean, they, you know, did rallies where they were in North Jersey feeling like that they could win over Latinos and kind of piggyback off of what Donald Trump was able to do in 2024 and be able to make gains with Latinos.

Speaker 4 But I think it was pretty clear last night that Latinos are not necessarily in one party's camp or the other very cleanly.

Speaker 4 Mikey Sheryl was able to win over the counties in the state that have very strong Latino populations. You know, in Patek, Trump had won by three points.

Speaker 4 This is a place that's almost half Latino according to the census. Cheryl won it by double digits.
So it was a huge swing, 18-point swing we saw.

Speaker 5 You know, and speaking of counties, you know, those maps with all the little teeny, weeny red arrows that all went in the Republican direction in 2024? Guess what?

Speaker 5 All those little teeny arrows are now blue and they're heading in the other direction.

Speaker 3 Yes,

Speaker 3 it's just sort of stunning how the winds of politics have shifted. Again, this is an off-year election.
This is a different electorate, all of these things. But wow, those little arrows did move.

Speaker 3 And in a strange turn of events, President Trump admitted as much. He said it was not a good night for anybody.

Speaker 3 He said that the shutdown was a factor, that Republicans were going to have to talk about what this means for them. He was pretty reflective.

Speaker 3 Last night, Mara, he sent out this social media post quoting polls.

Speaker 5 That was so interesting to me. Trump, usually, no matter what happens, everything is great.
He's winning. You know, the economy is growing by 20%.

Speaker 5 But he said in that post last night, he said, the two reasons that Polster cited, I'm not on the ballot, also the shutdown. He didn't say the Democrat-led shutdown.

Speaker 5 He said, I'm not on the ballot and the shutdown. So he clearly acknowledged that the shutdown was a problem for Republicans.

Speaker 5 And the thing about I'm not on the ballot, he's never going to be on the ballot again. He's not going to be on the ballot in the midterms either.

Speaker 5 And what's so interesting is he does energize Republicans. And what he was lamenting was he wasn't on the ballot to energize them, but he energizes Democrats even when he's not on the ballot.

Speaker 4 Yeah, this is really a two-pronged Republican problem that they have with Trump. You know, he's unpopular.
He's a drag on his party when he's not on the ballot.

Speaker 4 But when he's not on the ballot, Republicans can't seem to turn out conservatives. So, you know,

Speaker 4 this is a huge issue for Republicans going forward, something they're going to have to really think about for 2026.

Speaker 4 But, you know, Republicans really haven't had the courage to be able to stand up to Trump, put their necks out there, because they're going to get whacked from the right if they do do that.

Speaker 4 And if they cling too heavily to Trump,

Speaker 4 they wind up getting dinged from the middle because he's so alienated independents.

Speaker 4 You know, another thing that was really clear, I mean, obviously the cost of living was the top issue for a lot of voters.

Speaker 4 And what was fascinating in this is that exit polls showed that for the voters who thought that the economy or cost of living was most important, almost two-thirds sided with Democrats, which is shocking because Republicans have for so long, you know, felt like they own the economy.

Speaker 4 And they certainly did during the 2024 presidential election because prices was so important.

Speaker 4 But we've seen a remarkable lack of focus on bringing prices down from President Trump as he's been president in this second term. Instead, tariffs have only made things more expensive.

Speaker 4 And when he's asked about affordability now, he often pivots to either talking about immigration and crime, two things, by the way, that they did well on last night, Republicans,

Speaker 4 or he blames former President Biden. You know, I don't think that strategy is working anymore.

Speaker 4 And clearly, voters are saying this economy is owned by Trump and Republicans, and his lack of focus on it came back to bite Republicans last night.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I said a calendar reminder earlier this year, probably in the spring, when Howard Luttnick, the commerce secretary, did a TV interview, and somebody asked him, when is this going to be Trump's economy?

Speaker 3 And he said, October. And here we are.
Does this result cause some Republicans to have a little pause about how closely they are going to campaign as Trump Republicans?

Speaker 5 I don't think they have a choice. I agree with Domenico.
They are stuck. You can't separate yourself from him.
He might even come after you.

Speaker 5 And you can't stick too close to him because you're going to lose independent voters.

Speaker 4 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: And in the more immediate term, you know, you really wonder what it's going to mean for the shutdown. You know, on the one hand,

Speaker 4 you know, it it could mean that Democrats have the wind at their backs and that Republicans would be more willing to negotiate.

Speaker 4 On the other hand, it could mean that Democrats feel like they have the wind at their backs and Republicans continue to dig in and double down and Democrats do the same because they don't feel like they need to negotiate either.

Speaker 4 So, you know, this is going to be one of those things that's going to shake out in the next few days to see just how much does President Trump move?

Speaker 4 Because he is, you know, the mountain of Republicanism right now. And if he tells them, go ahead and negotiate over healthcare subsidies, they will do that immediately.
If he says, no, hold out,

Speaker 4 I believe we can, you know, push Democrats on this, then Republicans are going to do that. So this really comes down to one man.

Speaker 3 All right. Well, we are going to take a quick break and we will have more election results in a moment.

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Speaker 3 And we're back.

Speaker 3 Let's look at two other big votes that happened yesterday, starting with California and a ballot measure, Proposition 50, to allow the state to redraw the congressional map and tilt it in favor of Democrats.

Speaker 3 Mara, Prop 50 passed. As of this taping, it is up over 60% with support.

Speaker 5 That's right. California has taken a pause from its good government reform of having nonpartisan redistricting because Donald Trump told Texas, please find me five more Republican seats in the House.

Speaker 5 So this is the spiral of extreme partisan gerrymandering, mid-cycle, which breaks a political norm. Usually it's done only every 10 years after a census.

Speaker 5 But Republicans still have the advantage in mid-cycle redistricting.

Speaker 5 They have the ability to carve out more Republican-leaning districts than Democrats do, but California levels the playing field to a certain extent because it's possible that Democrats can get about five Democratic-leaning districts out of a redistricting.

Speaker 5 So I'm assuming this will just make Trump even more ardent for more red states to redistrict because if you're looking at a pretty crappy midterm outlook, you want to increase your structural advantages.

Speaker 5 And gerrymandering is one thing that Republicans can do and they have more opportunities to do it than Democrats.

Speaker 4 But they're already doing it, right? And pushing

Speaker 4 as much as they possibly could in any of these places.

Speaker 4 I think this is a huge win for Democrats because this is the only real opportunity they had to get this many potential seats that they could get out of one state.

Speaker 4 You know, California is so big, they could get, as Mara said, up to five seats, who knows how many.

Speaker 4 And that would be a huge counterbalance to Texas or other red states where Trump is demanding that he gets more congressional seats to try to shore up control of the House.

Speaker 4 Practically speaking, this may have been the most important election that took place last night, the most important outcome.

Speaker 4 And I will also say, you got to look at Gavin Newsom and how he came out last night doing a victory lap and not only doing a victory lap for this measure, but a victory lap for what I wonder is who he thinks should lead what he called an ascendant party, because he made it national.

Speaker 4 He talked about a whole bunch of different states, the National Guard and Trump, and really goaded him. He really showed that he wants to be that Democratic fighter.

Speaker 4 And I think that he's obviously someone who's got an eye on 2028. And boy, he was happy to lean right into it last night.

Speaker 3 Presidential ambitions not being hidden at all. Mikey Sherrill talked about this last night in her acceptance speech.

Speaker 3 Governors in the states are where the game is in terms of pushback on President Trump in the next year because in the House and the Senate, Republicans are in control and they've largely been compliant.

Speaker 3 And so winning those governors races for Democrats is significant.

Speaker 3 Let us move on to New York City. Last but not least, there is a new mayor coming in, Zohran Mamdani.
He's a state assemblyman. He's the first Muslim mayor of the city.

Speaker 3 He's in his early 30s, and he has described himself as a democratic socialist in the Democratic Party. Domenico, starting with you, how do you do?

Speaker 4 Well, I think first and foremost, you know, there are two kinds of politicians.

Speaker 4 There are ones who follow the winds of politics and the polls, and they decide that they're going to talk about the issues the way they think the polls are telling them they should talk about the issues.

Speaker 4 And then there are politicians who try to move the needle by the strength of their arguments. And that's Zoran Mamdani.
I think that he is quite the political athlete, certainly for New York City.

Speaker 4 You know, I mean, New York is not the rest of the country. It's a five-to-one Democratic voting advantage.
That's why the Democratic primary essentially decides the mayoral race.

Speaker 4 But here's somebody who started at basically 1% in the polls. Not that many people knew who he was.

Speaker 4 And he went out with confidence in his message on affordability that nice and neatly fits on bumper stickers, unlike most of the Democratic Party who can't figure out how to talk about their complicated policies.

Speaker 4 He certainly did, and he did it on a lot of different platforms.

Speaker 4 And he won over enough people, enough Democrats in particular, progressives, young progressives, to be able to win and become the youngest mayor in New York in a century and the first Muslim mayor.

Speaker 3 Mara, this was a three-way race. Andrew Cuomo is a Democrat, but he was running as an Independent because he lost in the primary.
And then there was Curtis Sliwa, who was the Republican.

Speaker 3 And late in the game, President Trump came out and said, actually, Republicans, don't vote for the Republican. Vote for Cuomo.
It seems like he did have somewhat of an effect.

Speaker 3 Sliwa did quite poorly, but it did nothing to prevent Momdani from winning.

Speaker 5 No, and actually, Momdani used Trump's endorsement of Cuomo. as a plus for him.
I think he posted something that said, congratulations, Cuomo, you worked hard to earn this.

Speaker 5 So that was the kiss of death in New York City. Look, there's this ridiculous conversation going on now about whether Democrats should run like Mom Dani or Spanberger.
I mean, it's crazy.

Speaker 5 They should do whatever is good and works for their state or district.

Speaker 5 Now, there's a lot of things from Mom Dani's campaign that Democrats could follow, like how he used social media, how he focused on affordability.

Speaker 5 Should Democrats run on freezing rent or government-controlled grocery stores? No, maybe that stuff works in New York, but probably nowhere else in the country.

Speaker 5 And also, if the Republicans are going to try to make Mom Dani into the poster child for Democratic leftist extremism, why is Mom Dani the poster child? He's just a mayor. Why not Abigail Spanberger?

Speaker 4 Well, because we know why.

Speaker 4 Yeah, no, I know that.

Speaker 4 It was a rhetorical question. Well, yeah, well, they found somebody who they think that they can put on a poster and make into a boogeyman.

Speaker 4 The way that they have with Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, also from New York, also considers herself a democratic socialist. That S-word, socialism, is a big reason why they're able to do that.

Speaker 4 He's also faced attacks for his faith. He's also said some things about Israel that have upset a lot of Jewish voters in New York City.

Speaker 4 He's said that he thought that the police needed to be defunded before walking that back as he ran for mayor because the top thing to be mayor is you got to keep the city safe and you need the cops to do that, right?

Speaker 4 So he walked that back and said safety is a top priority.

Speaker 4 But I was so fascinated because I was watching three different channels last night, all night, and not once did Fox News take Abigail Spanberger's speech or Mikey Sherrill's speech.

Speaker 4 What were they talking about? But Zoran Momdani.

Speaker 5 Yeah, as if he's the president of the Democrats. But Democrats have an answer now, Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill.

Speaker 5 Also, what's interesting about the word socialism, Donald Trump doesn't doesn't talk about socialism when he talks about Mom Dani. He calls him a communist.

Speaker 5 It just shows you that socialism doesn't pack the negative punches it used to. He has to call him a commie.

Speaker 4 I will say, though, tomorrow's point about the fact that you have to run your race the way you should run your race in the district you run in. You have to be natural.
You have to be authentic.

Speaker 4 And the person who most encapsulated that well last night, I thought, was Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.

Speaker 4 She was asked on MSNBC about whether or not Mom Dani now is the face and soul of the Democratic Party. And she was an early backer of Mom Dani.

Speaker 4 But what AOC said was that I don't think our party needs to have one face, that there's one assignment, and it's to send the strongest fighters for the working class wherever possible.

Speaker 4 And in some places like Virginia, that's going to look like Abigail Spanberger. In New York City, unequivocally, it's Zoran Mom Dani.

Speaker 4 So there is this sort of false choice that people are going to be talking about, but it is something that Democrats are going to be debating on what's the best style to push this message of affordability over the next year.

Speaker 3 And I think you're saying the answer is be authentic.

Speaker 4 Right. And take lessons where you can, but you got to be yourself.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 Well, let's leave it there for today. We're all ourselves.
I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

Speaker 4 I'm Domenico Montanero, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

Speaker 5 And I'm Mara Lyason, Senior National Political Correspondent.

Speaker 3 And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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