New Poll Results Show Democrats With An Edge, Topping Off Tough Week For Trump

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Speaker 2 Hi, this is Sherry in Sioux City, Iowa, and I'm cooking lots of Adobe-style chicken for a tailgate we'll have this weekend in Iowa City

Speaker 2 when the Hawkeyes play and my family will be together for a tailgate. This mom cannot wait.
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Speaker 3 on Friday, November 21st, 2025.

Speaker 2 Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but hopefully the Hawkeyes will have won and I know we'll have enjoyed a sweet weekend of family time together. Enjoy the show.

Speaker 4 Food, time stamps are the best.

Speaker 1 Interesting, a Sioux City Hawkeyes fan because, you know, Iowa is pretty far east of the University of Iowa and a lot of the more conservative portion of the state roots for Iowa State.

Speaker 1 But that's just some deep Iowa local stuff for those of us who've covered a lot of politics there.

Speaker 3 I just, I haven't eaten lunch yet, so I feel like they should have to ask permission before they do a food stamp.

Speaker 3 Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks.
I cover voting.

Speaker 1 I'm Domenico Montanero, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

Speaker 4 And I'm Mara Lyason, Senior National Political Correspondent.

Speaker 3 And today on the show, we are unpacking another very busy political week. I want to start with with the Jeffrey Epstein case.

Speaker 3 President Trump signed a bill to allow for the release of thousands of files related to the convicted sex offender, but this is something that President Trump was fighting up until very recently.

Speaker 3 Domenico, why do you think he changed course here?

Speaker 1 Well, he's going to lose. And, you know, he really waved the white flag.
You know, he tried to pressure Republicans.

Speaker 1 There were four of them who continued to hold out for a very long time because they wanted to have these files fully released. He campaigned on saying that he would release them.

Speaker 1 The Justice Department tried to say that they didn't have enough evidence to charge people over the summer and said, you know, they're not going to release whatever other things are to protect the victims.

Speaker 1 And that was a line that the White House tried to continue to push with Republicans. And then he waved the white flag.

Speaker 1 It gave an openness to allow other people to go and vote in favor of the full release.

Speaker 1 And it passed almost unanimously in the House with only one person objecting, which really raises a lot of questions for me on what people privately believe versus what they publicly will do if they're a Republican and the president tells them not to.

Speaker 4 Aaron Powell, and speaking of flag metaphors, remember the president created this own monster. He campaigned on that there was a terrible scandal in those Epstein files and he was going to uncover it.

Speaker 4 And his attorney general said she had Epstein's client list on her desk. Oops.
Then she changed her mind. Nope, it wasn't there.

Speaker 4 So what he did is he ran to the head of the parade and grabbed the flag because he knew he was losing.

Speaker 4 And he tried to do a little political jiu-jitsu by saying, I'm signing this bill and we're going to find out about the Democrats in these files. I don't know if that stuff is working anymore for him.

Speaker 3 Well, Dominico, you touched on the unanimous nature, or almost unanimous nature, of these files with only one vote against in the House and the Senate cleared it unanimously.

Speaker 3 What do you all make of the fact we can never find bipartisan agreement about anything and yet this seems to have done it? Aaron Powell, yeah.

Speaker 1 I mean, I think it showed again how much Republicans have cowed to Trump over the years and been willing to do what he wants, not necessarily what they morally think is the right thing to do on every occasion.

Speaker 1 I think also Trump, though, revealed himself on his relationship with Epstein, and not in a very good way.

Speaker 1 I mean, if you think about what he said in the White House, with what is now another wrinkle and change in story about his relationship with him, that he said he threw him out of his club for, quote, being a sick pervert.

Speaker 1 You know, that really begs the question here: does that mean Trump is lying, or that he actually knew what Epstein was doing and just didn't say anything about it to protect the girls?

Speaker 1 Neither is really good.

Speaker 3 Mara, does any of this matter politically for Trump? I mean, I just feel like we've been doing this for 10 years. The president has weathered every number of personal and political scandals.

Speaker 3 Why is this any different?

Speaker 4 Well, I think what's interesting about it is that he pushed so hard to not let these files come out. And usually, like you said, scandals just roll off him like water off a duck's back.

Speaker 4 So why was he so concerned about this? But the other thing that's happening is that we know from the off-year elections that the laws of political gravity have not been abolished.

Speaker 4 They still work for Trump. His policies are unpopular.
His approval rating is down. And voters just rejected his party.

Speaker 4 So I think that it shows that he doesn't have the complete 100% rock-solid hold on his base that he used to.

Speaker 4 I am not saying that MAGA is divorcing him or abandoning him, but he just doesn't seem as powerful as he used to.

Speaker 3 All right, well, let's turn to other news that the president made this week.

Speaker 3 A group of Democratic lawmakers, all with ties to the military or to national security fields, released a video where they encouraged military members to refuse orders if they thought they were illegal.

Speaker 1 Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders.

Speaker 5 You can refuse illegal orders.

Speaker 1 You must refuse illegal orders.

Speaker 3 That led the president to post on social media that the lawmakers were, quote, traitors and engaged in, quote, seditious behavior.

Speaker 3 And he also reposted commenters who suggested that the lawmakers should be executed.

Speaker 3 Mara, I should note that White House press secretary Caroline Levitt said yesterday that the president was not, in fact, calling for these lawmakers to be executed. But what do you make of all this?

Speaker 4 Well, he posted comments that said the lawmakers should be executed. This is a tough one.

Speaker 4 When my kid uses the F-word and then he says he's just kidding or he didn't mean it, he still uses the F-word and he gets punished.

Speaker 4 I think that saying that a repost is different than a post is is really splitting hairs too far. He said that they should be executed.

Speaker 4 This is not the first time that he said his opponents should be executed. He said that many of them have committed treason.
And of course, one of the punishments for treason is execution.

Speaker 4 But I think this is a president who's under pressure. And he's been responding in a pretty extreme way, even for him.

Speaker 4 You know, it's hard to explain your way out of this at some point, even for Donald Trump.

Speaker 3 Well, Dominico, I want to ask about the contents of the video for a second, because

Speaker 3 this is a video put out by Democrats featuring members who either serve in the military or have these national security backgrounds. And it does feel like a moment with Democrats see an opening here.

Speaker 3 Republicans have traditionally been the party viewed as the party looking out for the military. Do you feel like Democrats are trying to kind of seed into that?

Speaker 1 Aaron Powell, Jr.: If it's a broader strategy, it's a broader strategy to bait Trump.

Speaker 1 And it seems to have worked this week because there's always been these left-leaning veterans groups that have aligned with democrats and have tried to you know make these kinds of messages but we've seen this kind of message before you know in the first trump term for example uh where you had people trying to remind those in the military that they don't have to follow illegal orders that they believe to be illegal orders.

Speaker 1 In fact, they're not supposed to follow illegal orders. So it's an interesting choice and a time to bring it up for those veterans and Democrats to try to do this.

Speaker 1 And clearly, it's another thing that's gotten under Trump's skin.

Speaker 3 Well, I want to turn lastly to Texas.

Speaker 3 We got some news that the state's congressional maps that have been gerrymandered recently to give Republicans even more of a favorable map there in the upcoming midterms.

Speaker 3 They've been thrown out by a federal judge. And this was the gerrymander that sort of started the great gerrymandering wars of 2025.
Maura, what could this possibly mean?

Speaker 4 Well, we don't know yet until the Supreme Court rules on it. There are a lot of things piling up at the court now.

Speaker 4 They've been overall favorable to Donald Trump and his efforts to expand the powers of the executive.

Speaker 4 They could decide that this gerrymander is merely political. The Supreme Court has said political gerrymanders are okay.

Speaker 4 The reason the lower court threw it out is because they said this gerrymander was racial.

Speaker 4 And as long as the last few vestiges of the Voting Rights Act are still standing, you're not supposed to do racial gerrymanders. So I would just say this one, you know, let's just wait and see.

Speaker 4 I still believe that assuming this gerrymander is approved, it means that overall Republicans do have an advantage in the mid-cycle gerrymandering wars. They just do.

Speaker 4 They're going to come out with more seats than Democrats are going to be able to create for themselves unless the Supreme Court does something surprising.

Speaker 1 Aaron Powell, you know, Mara mentioned Trump being a potential lame duck, especially being on the wrong side of a lot of the issues currently, and seeing more Republicans start to maybe cross him a little bit.

Speaker 1 Nothing says lame duck than the out party, the party that's not in power currently, then taking over control of the House.

Speaker 1 So Republicans are desperately, especially the president, desperately trying to retain control of the House with just this very razor-thin three-seat majority.

Speaker 1 So Trump is trying to find anywhere possible to get more seats to have a bigger advantage for Republicans to hold on to that power.

Speaker 1 But there's going to be a lot of questions about a potential boomerang effect here because when you start to reduce the power of the seats of the people who are in Congress and make them more vulnerable to wave election and when you're banking on Latinos in South Texas to help you out in two or three of these seats we've seen those Latinos move away from the Republican Party and Trump this year so I think it's a it's a bit of a gamble bit of a roll of the dice for Republicans to think that they can be guaranteed those votes and that's why sometimes gerrymanders turn into what we call dummy manders they backfire all right time for a quick break.

Speaker 3 More in just a moment.

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Speaker 3 And we're back. A new polling from NPR says Americans are largely unhappy with how things are going in the country.
President Trump gets bad marks, as does his Republican Party, but so do Democrats.

Speaker 3 Dominico, what do you see in this new NPR PBS News Maris poll?

Speaker 1 Well, it was a pretty eye-opening poll, I thought, this week. You know, Democrats are up 14 points in what's known as the congressional ballot test.

Speaker 1 We ask routinely: you know, if elections were held today, who would you vote for in your district, a Republican or a Democrat? 55% in this poll said a Democrat. 41% said a Republican.

Speaker 1 In Maris polls, that's the biggest lead that we've seen since 2017, since Trump's first administration.

Speaker 1 And I have to say, in 20 years of covering politics, I can't remember seeing a good survey put out a congressional ballot where one party is at 55 in the congressional ballot.

Speaker 1 Look, this could be an outlier, but there's plenty of evidence that it's not.

Speaker 1 especially with the elections earlier this month, where Democrats did well up and down the ballot, and voters seem to be upset with Trump and Republicans, especially on the issue of affordability.

Speaker 3 14 points is a lot of points. It sounds like the makings of a blow-up, but we are still a year away from midterms.

Speaker 4 Sure, we're still a year away, but I do think that if Democrats can maintain a lead of anywhere from, oh, I don't know, 8 to 11 points advantage in the generic ballot, that's setting them up for a very good midterm.

Speaker 4 So things have changed, and the predictive power of these polls and the generic ballot question has really dropped. Why? Because there are so fewer truly competitive seats.

Speaker 4 We have more Democrats sitting in seats that Trump won than Republicans sitting in seats that Harris won.

Speaker 4 And also, Republicans have an advantage not even counting the mid-cycle gerrymandering that's going on in states like Texas and California.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I was going to say the gerrymandering has really led to a right-leaning number of seats in the country that are seemingly a majority.

Speaker 1 And that's why Democrats need to have a bigger advantage on this question.

Speaker 3 Well, thinking ahead to how Republicans respond to all of this, the first thing they did after this government shut down Dominico was to vote to force President Trump's Department of Justice to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

Speaker 3 Where does the party stand, or how are they thinking about moving forward over the next year?

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, I think it'd be too far to say that the party's fracturing and people are breaking away from Trump, but it's certainly easier to do that when a president has low approval ratings as Trump does.

Speaker 1 I mean, Arpole had him at 39% job approval, the lowest since just after January 6th. You know, it was 24% with independence.

Speaker 1 He's on the wrong side of a lot of issues, the economy, people thinking he's going too far on how the administration is conducting deportations.

Speaker 1 But I would say, you know, I'm skeptical that there will be that much change where we see Republicans suddenly abandoning the president because he's still very popular with base Republican voters.

Speaker 1 In our survey, nine in ten Republicans still approve of the job he's doing.

Speaker 4 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: And what's just a little caveat about the unpopularity of Democrats, they are unpopular, historically unpopular, but a lot of the people who say they are not happy with Democrats are Democratic voters.

Speaker 4 They're not happy with Democrats. Does that mean they're going to vote for Republicans? No.
Are they going to stay home? Probably not, because these voters are very, very angry.

Speaker 4 And we saw in the off years that they are motivated. Whether Trump is on the ballot or not, they are motivated.

Speaker 3 I mean, the thing I struggle with, Dominico, is just trying to figure out what matters right now, because it does feel like there's a new political controversy, scandal, something big happening every single day.

Speaker 3 And I get the sense that that advantages Trump, that nothing ever really seems to stick.

Speaker 1 Well, yeah, I mean, Trump is chaos. You know, that's always been his strategy.
That's been his playbook.

Speaker 1 You know, he puts out a fire hose of stuff, you know, controversial things online, as we saw even this week.

Speaker 1 I think the difference here is that Trump and Republicans, like Democrats and President Biden before him, can't escape the fact that people are feeling a pinch in their pockets.

Speaker 1 You know, it's arguably one of, you know, the reason why he won crossover voters in the 2024 presidential election.

Speaker 1 Still, the main issue in our poll, 57%, said that lowering prices needs to be Trump's top priority.

Speaker 1 Immigration was a distant second at 16%, despite the fact that Trump continues to say or has said repeatedly in the second term that immigration is really the most important issue.

Speaker 1 But even a plurality of Republicans were saying that lowering prices is the top priority. So they are screaming it out in the surveys and at the ballot box.

Speaker 4 The economy and particularly prices is a different kind of issue.

Speaker 4 It's easy to change the subject from a lot of issues, but not when people feel they are being pinched and prices are going up for their basic goods like food and rent and education.

Speaker 4 And it's very hard to convince people that the economy is better than they feel.

Speaker 4 And if presidents try, Biden tried, Trump is trying now, try to convince them that something is different than they're feeling, they are insulted.

Speaker 3 Well, I do feel like a lot can change in a year, specifically, and maybe most importantly, it sounds like, on the economy.

Speaker 3 How much can we really learn from a poll like this, Dominico, this far out from midterms?

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, I think it offers a lot of value.

Speaker 1 I mean, it offers a good framework for where we are right now, you know, what the mood of the country is, what the reporting lines, frankly, will be heading into the next year.

Speaker 1 What is it that voters care most about? We know what people think is most important.

Speaker 1 We see this as really a critical juncture of Trump's presidency because he's inching closer to that lame duck status and certainly would be if Democrats take back the House next year.

Speaker 1 But Democrats have to worry about peaking too soon. They're not taking Republicans by surprise on the issue of affordability.
There are some real warning signs for Democrats in this survey as well.

Speaker 1 As Mara said, Democrats don't really like the people in their own party. And the bottom line here is if prices stay what they are, it's advantage Democrats.

Speaker 1 But if they come down and people feel improvements, then this lead very much could recede.

Speaker 4 Right. That means Trump has to deliver.
He can't just convince people the economy is better than they think it is. He has to actually bring prices down.

Speaker 3 All right. Let's take one more break and then it's time for Can't Let It Go.

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Speaker 3 And we're back. And it's time for Can't Let It Go.
That's the part of the show where we talk about things from the week that we just cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise.

Speaker 3 Mara, why don't you get us started?

Speaker 4 My Can't Let It Go this week is a commemorative $1 coin issued by the United States Mint in honor of America's 250th birthday, which is next year.

Speaker 4 And the draft images show Trump's side profile on the front of the coin.

Speaker 4 And then on the back of the coin, there's the famous image of him raising his fist after the Butler, Pennsylvania assassination attempt, and the words fight, fight, fight are underneath.

Speaker 4 Now, what's interesting is that there's actually a law that prohibits living former presidents from being featured on a coin no sooner than two years following their death.

Speaker 4 But this one is considered a special collectible coin, so he might get around the law on that one.

Speaker 4 That law also states that there can be no head and shoulders portrait or bust of any person living or dead on the reverse of the coin.

Speaker 4 And that's why on the reverse of the the coin, it's just the picture of him with the fist raised, not his profile.

Speaker 4 What this to me symbolizes is not just that the rules and laws don't apply to Trump, but his motto could be, heads I win, tails you lose.

Speaker 4 And this coin is created to actually make that happen since it has a picture of him on both sides.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I wonder if this thing is actually going to get off the ground and if there's anyone in Congress that it raises any eyebrows for, or if he's going to get really mad at somebody at the U.S.

Speaker 1 Mint who stands in the way of it, like he did the National Archives, people who you would never normally see talking out publicly.

Speaker 4 I don't think that's going to happen because the treasurer, U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach, posted on X, no fake news here.

Speaker 4 POTUS, these images are real. Looking forward to sharing more soon.
So I think that the Mint is on his side.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I'm a little skeptical, Dominico, of this. I don't know if this is going to happen thing.

Speaker 3 I feel like this is like eight years ago when we were like, the hatch act, the hatch act matters, the hatch act matters. It's like, ah, this one, I don't, I, we'll see.

Speaker 4 We'll see. Miles, what can't you let go of this week?

Speaker 3 So my can't let it go this week is also a little bit political. Follow me here.

Speaker 3 Okay, so do you guys remember, you may not remember this because you're not like in the voting weeds the way I am, but earlier this summer, there was this guy who was reaching out to a bunch of counties in Colorado asking to investigate their voting machines.

Speaker 3 He was telling these counties, many of them, that he was doing it on behalf of the White House. The White House said, no, we basically like, we're we're not associated with this guy.

Speaker 3 But the thing I cannot let go of about this story, which I had been kind of reading into again because I was doing a piece about threats to the midterm elections and all the things voting officials are worried about.

Speaker 3 But when CNN reached him and asked him about this, you know, asking all these voting officials to investigate their voting equipment, his attorney told CNN that he was doing it in his free time while he was on parental leave.

Speaker 3 And I was like,

Speaker 4 parental leave from where?

Speaker 1 I don't know.

Speaker 3 I don't know. But I was just like, it just flashed me back to the idea of like having a four-week old.

Speaker 3 And in some ways, it made it make a little bit more sense that I was like, wow, this guy probably had slept like two hours and was like, I'm just going to send some emails to some election officials.

Speaker 3 But the other part of it was like, man,

Speaker 3 I don't know about that. I'm curious to know how that was playing at home, that he was investigating elections equipment when there was a newborn baby around, you know?

Speaker 1 Well, you do a lot of sitting around.

Speaker 1 You know, babies sleep a lot. And, you know, who among us hasn't sent an email trying to,

Speaker 1 you know, influence how elections are run? Fair enough.

Speaker 3 Dominica, what can't you let go of?

Speaker 1 Well, you know,

Speaker 1 we're coming close to the holidays. And, you know, a little bit of stress always kind of creeps in when I start thinking about what I'm going to buy people.

Speaker 4 Oh, how nice of you.

Speaker 1 Well, you know, I don't know. It just feels like, what am I going to get? And especially if you have relatives who have kids, you're like, what am I gonna get? Kids, right?

Speaker 1 Well, now there are these AI-powered toys. I don't know if you've heard about that this week.

Speaker 1 I don't know if you remember the old Teddy Ruxbin from the 80s. I certainly wanted one when I was a kid.
You put an audio cassette in his back and he talked to you. Remember that?

Speaker 1 And it was this cute little toy and he would like read to you and stuff. This is very different.

Speaker 1 tells kids way too many things.

Speaker 1 Things we can't even talk about on a polite podcast, it was telling researchers, and including ways to go get knives and where they

Speaker 1 and other things that are not PG-related, where the kids could ask any question that they wanted. And it went into excruciating detail about some of those things.

Speaker 1 And people said, yeah, this is not what a toy is supposed to do. We've come a long way since Teddy Ruxman, let me tell you.

Speaker 3 We've got to go back to just regular action figures, right? There was nothing wrong with them. They worked.
They did the job. Let's just go back.

Speaker 1 Like, do we really need people talking to their toys and their toys telling them things? I mean, that's really dangerous.

Speaker 3 I want to be able to leave the room and know my child is not talking to the internet, you know? I just want to be able to know that. All right, that's all for today.

Speaker 3 Our executive producer is Mathoni Maturi. Our producers are Casey Morrell and Brea Suggs.
Our editor is Rachel Bay. Special thanks to Christian Dev Callimer and Kelsey Snell.
I'm Miles Parks.

Speaker 3 I cover voting.

Speaker 1 I'm Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

Speaker 4 And I'm Mara Lyasson, Senior National Political Correspondent.

Speaker 3 And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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