Why the N.B.A. is Betting Big on China

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I think it's really fascinating how we've seen, you know, on the trade side in areas like soya beans and rare earths.

Really, China and America can't seem to catch a break.

They've been slugging it out in all types of different arenas.

But in basketball, things are going a lot better.

This is a rather interesting situation.

Welcome to China Decode.

I'm Alice Han.

And I'm James King.

So in today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing Trump's war of words with Xi heating up after Beijing clamps down on rare earth exports, why the NBA returned to China for the first time in six years, and how Chinese surgeons pull off a world-first a pig-to-human liver transplant.

There's a lot of exciting topics, James, but I know that you've probably been very busy like I have in the last few days, mainly because of the whole rare earths shenanigan.

It's been really frantic, actually.

This is a massive story for us, Alice.

We're both in

the China commentary business.

And I must say, if I could just start off with a few top lines, it seems to me that if you're looking for one choke point,

one issue that might do more than anything else to decide the superpower rivalry between the US and China, it would probably have to be at this stage anyway, rare earths.

It really is that important, it seems to me.

And the reason is that China has a stranglehold.

It processes about 90% of the rare earths that are used around the world.

And these days, it restricts the export of about 12 of the 17 rare earths that are known to exist.

Now, these rare earths, they all come with long names.

It's all, I'm not going to belabor it, but they're all crucial to all kinds of things, you know, from smartphones to defense systems to all sorts of electronics that we use in our daily lives.

But anyway, Alice, I know you've been spending a lot of time on this.

Could you tell us why is China putting restrictions on the export of rare earths, not only to the US, but to everybody around the world?

And why are they doing it now?

Well, firstly, let me backtrack a bit and say, I'm sure it's the same for you.

I've had more back and forth in my clients and interested individuals in the last few days than I would say since April.

So that gives you a sense of how dramatic and drastic both the Chinese policy was and how it was interpreted.

So again, to give it a bit of context, this is a big escalation on the U.S.-China trade and tech front.

President Donald Trump is now threatening economic retaliation against Beijing after China moved to expand export controls on five additional rare earth minerals.

The U.S.

President blasted Xi Jinping on social media, calling China's move hostile and saying he no longer sees any reason to meet with President Xi during his upcoming trip to Asia.

That was the mood music as of Friday, but of course, in the Trump world, things move and progress very, very rapidly.

Since Friday, we've seen a bit of, I would say, a walk back, a withdrawal on both sides, a de-escalation attempt.

And certainly, Donald Trump's tweet this Monday, I think, gave markets less cause for panic because he basically tweeted, don't worry about China, it will all be fine.

Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.

He doesn't want a depression for his country and neither do I.

And I think since then, you know, people watching this believe that we're in a de-escalation moment.

And certainly, if you look at the SP, which dropped 2.7% Friday, it's walked back some of that decline as of Monday.

But certainly, I think people were taken aback by both China's policy, which I'll get into just a bit, and obviously the rapid 0 to 100% escalation of tariffs that Trump was threatening on the back of these export restrictions.

Now, firstly, I want to give everyone a sense of what these export restrictions are, because I think there's still a lot of confusion about what these export restrictions entail.

And secondly, why rare earths are still so critical for the global economy.

So, on the first level, I would say these export controls have been part of a way in which the Chinese government government is formalizing an export control regime that is very much mimicked on what the U.S.

has done over the last few years, ever since the Trump administration.

So, as of 2020, we saw the announcement of these export control law frameworks, and they were designed to basically give China more strategic control on the exports of what they consider high-advanced core technologies.

The move on Friday was, I think, significant because it meant that five of the remaining critical minerals that were not yet subject to export controls were added to the list, as you correctly identified, James.

So basically, all rare earths are subject to now export controls as of December the 1st.

And China basically has this licensure framework, meaning that companies that are seen to be exporting critical minerals or even parts of critical minerals within a bigger technology like semiconductors will have to get approval from Ofcom.

And I think what really shocked a lot of people was the fact that even, and I was looking into the details of this, even a good or a technological product that has 0.1%

content of Chinese rare earths is subject to these export restrictions.

So effectively, it increases the scope and depth of China's control.

And certainly, again, to go on to the second element of this, rare earths are so significant, not only because China dominates about 90%

of the higher-end heavy rare earths and 70% of the complete total rare earth mining.

But also because they are so critical in different components and different technologies around the world, whether it's defense-grade equipment, semiconductors, data centers, heavy magnets used in EVs and batteries.

These are basically, I would say, the DNA of a lot of the technologies that we use today.

And it's going to take a couple of years for the US to follow Japan's path, I would say.

If you remember the Senkaku Islands incident back in 2010, where Japan had to learn very quickly after a rare earths embargo was put upon it by China to create its own domestic supply chain.

The US and other countries are going to have to do so as well.

But certainly I think this has been a bit of a wake-up call for Washington.

They were definitely caught up by surprise.

But I also think and curious what you think here, James, that Beijing was caught by surprise as well because it didn't expect the Trump administration to go so aggressive in response to this.

My own, and forgive me if it's a little bit of a contrarian view.

My own view is that they wanted to announce this to give them future optionality if trade talks weren't to go well, so that they could deploy effectively the rare earths card.

And at the same time, they are trying to do, I would say, a formalizing of these export control frameworks ahead of the Fourth Plan and 15th Five-Year Plan, where I think a big focus will be on trying to indigenize and securitize China's supply chains.

But I'm curious what you think about this.

I know that there's a lot of different views out there as to why China timed it right now and what China's intent was.

Yeah, I mean, I think that China has short-term and long-term aims in this.

And as you've said, I think the short-term aims are mostly about giving themselves leverage ahead of negotiations with Donald Trump over some kind of trade settlement between China and the U.S.

As we mentioned last episode, Alice, we saw the soya beans issue last time.

In other words, China not buying a single soya bean from the United States yet this autumn harvest in the US.

That's one source of leverage.

Now we've got this rare earth one, which is far and away greater than the soya bean leverage because, as you've already said, these rare earths go into so many products that are essential for the US military-industrial complex.

These are essential for the weapons that the U.S.

makes and uses to defend itself.

And if there's anything I think that gets minds and pulses really racing in Washington, it is precisely that.

So, the idea that China has a stranglehold over the ability of the U.S.

to make weapons.

So, that's another piece of leverage that Xi Jinping is giving himself.

And then there's been a couple of other things, such as a retaliation by China on a U.S.

measure to increase port fees.

So now China is putting port fees, increased port fees on US ships going to China.

So there's a whole load of different leverage which is being built up by both sides ahead of what we think is going to be talks to resolve these trade frictions and the tariff war, et cetera, et cetera.

But at this stage, we really don't know how this is going to be resolved.

We're all assuming there are going to be talks, but if both sides keep on piling on the leverage, to me, it's more than possible that we'll just get into a slugfest.

We'll just have one side slugging the other.

And at a certain point, maybe one or the other side may lose an appetite to reach a deal.

So I really think that this is a very major issue.

Of course, it could all be resolved.

You know, China and the U.S.

have been known to do this before, bring it to the brink and then bring it back to reach a resolution.

But, you know, at the moment, this looks serious, I would say.

Do you think it's going to go to a deal or do you think that this is just going to be a big bust up?

I don't think either scenario happens.

And I think ultimately we'll get a deal that is no deal.

In effect, both sides will agree to keep talking and to try to freeze any escalation in trade and tech-related sanctions.

On the Chinese side, they think it's to their advantage if the status quo ex ante continues because they've been able to large the additional 30% tariffs that have been put on place earlier this year.

They have been able to find workarounds for the semiconductor sanctions.

And ultimately, they believe that they're in a position of strength again, which is why I think they hit hard, to demand more.

And I think they will demand more in Taiwan, where they might ask Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence.

And they may demand more in terms of walking back some of these higher-end semiconductor restrictions.

On the Trump side, certainly the people around him, like Besant, will want to see tariffs not escalate for business financial related reasons.

But it's worth bearing in mind that he's got a lot of hawks around him who've been remarkably silent thus far.

I'm thinking of Marco Rubio, chief among them, who may use this as ammunition going to 2026 for a more hawkish posture.

The way that I've always thought about this relationship is that this trade war is a divorce that neither of the US nor China can afford.

And so ultimately, they've realized that decoupling is a settlement that they cannot afford.

So they have to continue to be seen to talk.

And unfortunately, talking is its own form of, I would say, resolution, meaning that both sides decide not to escalate.

But I think as a result, we'll probably still have ongoing negotiations that deliver a degree of stability with some, obviously, volatility on the sides, like Friday's announcement.

One thing that I do want to end on is something that I found very interesting is that China is using a lot of the regulatory frameworks that the US has adopted.

So the new export control actually is the first time China has used a foreign direct product rule, FDPR.

This is a mechanism that was introduced in the US in 1959 and then recently used to restrict exports of semiconductors to China.

So in a way, China is trying to mimic again what the U.S.

is doing

in this kind of long dance of a divorce.

But ultimately, I think both sides will keep talking.

I think she and Trump will probably meet in Korea.

There will be a lot of gland handing, but there won't be a real formal deal is my take.

My sense of this also, Alice, is that there's a bigger, longer-term shift here.

And that is that, you know, China has shown itself now to be willing to weaponize its supply chain.

I mean, the supply chain, its dominance in the rare earth supply chain is what allows it to use this leverage against the United States and other countries.

But I think we should be clear that China has dominance like this in many different industries and many different supply chains.

And we don't know in the future whether they might be willing to use that leverage as well.

So China makes 80% of the world's solar panels.

It makes about 70% of the world's wind power equipment.

About half of all of the world's cellular modules.

These are little devices that turn basically a piece of equipment into a networked piece of equipment.

And it even controls about 35% of so-called legacy semiconductors.

Those are the old form of semiconductors, more than 28 nanometers, that are used in most products.

And according to UNIDO, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, China by 2030 will account for about 45%

of all of the manufactured products in the world.

So when that day comes, they'll have even greater leverage.

And so this is why I think this is such a crucial issue.

It shows the potential shape of things to come.

It shows how China could use its massive trading power to really get geopolitical ends or to aim at geopolitical concessions.

And it's taking on America this time, the world's biggest superpower.

So we really need to see how this works out.

You know, if China wins this, we're in a totally different world from the one that we were brought up in.

I mean, to me, I've been following China's trade rise since China joined the WTO in 2001.

I never thought that I would get to the day when China was potentially the boss, you know, beating America, as it were, or dictating terms to the U.S.

But we might just be there on this issue.

It's fascinating stuff, and I'm sure by the time we see each other again next week, a lot will have changed.

Okay, stay tuned.

We'll be back for more after a quick break.

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Welcome back.

The NBA seems to be well and truly truly back in China for the first time in six years.

Over the weekend, the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns faced off in two preseason games at the Venetian, marking the league's first major event in China since the fallout over the 2019 Hong Kong protests.

Brooklyn Nets owner Joe Tai says he is thrilled to bring his team back, and Celtics co-owner Mario Ho says the city is buzzing like nothing before.

And Chinese legend Yao Ming, who I'm a big fan of, is calling it a long overdue reunion for the basketball sport.

Okay, James, I have to confess, I am not a big basketball fan.

If this were a conversation about tennis, I'd be better equipped.

So I'm going to have to lean on your basketball expertise.

How significant is this moment for the NBA to be back in business in China after several years of a thaw?

Well, I mean, I'm no basketball player myself.

I did play quite a lot when I was at university in China.

It was definitely a daily occurrence over there.

And I think this is really major for the NBA.

Basketball is such a passion in China.

Everywhere you go, all over the country, you find people playing basketball.

I remember once I was sort of in the foothills of the Himalayas at a Tibetan Lamaist monastery, and I saw the monks in their saffron robes coming out of prayer, streaming into the courtyard, and then there was a basketball hoop in the end.

And they all started to play basketball with sort of raucous excitement.

It's just one of many experiences you get like that in China.

It really is a national passion.

I also remember, Alice, if I can just start with this story.

About five years ago, there were a couple of viral sensations in China.

One involved a young star named Li, who was two years old.

And you would see video of this baby sucking a lollipop in their family bathroom and then shooting hoops with extraordinary accuracy.

I I mean, the baby would put it into the hoop most of the time.

And then, more recently, there was another kid, also two years old, called Wang, who also went viral with the same kind of routine.

So it really is a big deal in China.

I think that from the NBA's perspective, this is big.

Obviously, it's big in terms of money.

The NBA lost about 300 million US dollars as a result of its rift in 2019 with Beijing.

Just to jog everyone's memory, that rift came about after the general manager of the Houston Rockets basketball team tweeted the words, fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong.

And that was in the middle of the Hong Kong demonstrations for greater democracy.

Obviously, Beijing took a very dim view of that and basically took a sanction against the NBA.

And that resulted in the NBA losing about 300 million US dollars

in various forms of revenue in the mainland.

About 490 million people watched NBA games in China between 2018 and 2019 on various different platforms.

That just gives you a sense of how massive basketball is and American basketball is in China.

And I think it's really fascinating how we've seen, you know, on the trade side, as we've just been discussing in areas like soya beans and rare earths, really China and America can't seem to catch a break.

They've been slugging it out in all types of different arenas.

But in basketball, things are going a lot better.

This is a rather interesting situation.

I don't know how you read that, Alice.

Why is the relationship with basketball improving while in just about all the other areas we've discussed, things are getting much worse?

Well, my hot take on this is that effectively the government is trying to boost the kind of tourism that happens with cultural sport-related travel.

And I think the more that they can get people to spend on games, the more tangential revenue that they can draw from these sorts of cultural sports-related activities.

So, I think this is part of a bigger push that we've seen the last year to get people out more and spending more.

And certainly, it chimes with the push that I've sensed from Beijing to also boost consumption in services in particular, which hires more people than the goods sector and is a bigger share of GDP.

So, I think my own understanding

of this is within the framework of Beijing trying to get people out there to spend money.

And what I found very interesting from a monetary perspective is that basketball has overtaken football or soccer as the top sport by media rights value, totaling $316 million.

I think that's pretty significant given this is a country that a couple years ago was very much into soccer.

Xi Jing was all for it.

It was a big campaign to get kids active and playing soccer.

But there's been a big, I think, cultural turnaround.

And I really saw that when I was in Shanghai and staying at the same hotel as LeBron James.

I saw a huge mass of young Chinese people in Lakers' sweatshirts standing outside the hotel hoping to get a glimpse of the tall giant.

Fascinating.

Well okay let's take a quick break and stay with us.

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Well, welcome back.

A medical first out of China, surgeons in China have successfully transplanted part of a genetically modified pig liver into a human patient, marking a major step forward in xenotransplantation.

The 71-year-old man lived for 171 days after the procedure, including more than a month with the pig organ functioning inside of his body.

Researchers say it is a breakthrough that could one day help bridge the global shortage of donor organs, though some experts caution it's still very early days for this kind of science.

I have to confess, James, when I came across this report, I was very shocked.

This seems to be blade runner-esque or dystopian.

And I'm not a biotech expert, but certainly it reminds me a little little bit of that scene in Spider-Man where they're getting parts of animals and turning them into superpowers.

It seems like China is already in that future, and it seems to be ahead in this global race to make animal-to-human organ transplants.

How do you feel about this?

And what's your hot take?

Well, I'm learning a lot of things doing this podcast, Alice, and xenotransplantation is a new word for me.

That's something I've learned doing this.

I think you're right.

I think China is ahead of the rest of the world in doing this type of transplant.

And I think what's crucial about it is that Chinese scientists are doing gene edits, in this case on the pig liver, before it's transplanted into the human body.

And it seems to me that that's the crucial part of the puzzle here.

So the idea is that if you replace those genes that are inherent in the pig liver and are likely to be rejected by human systems, particularly the immune system in the human body, and you put human genes into the place of those pig genes that you take out, then it's more likely that the liver will be accepted by the human host body.

And so, that apparently is what has happened this time.

And there's a very interesting quotation from somebody called Mr.

Beicheng Sun.

He's the doctor at a hospital in Anhui Medical University, that's in Anhui Province, who identified this as the problem.

He said, I think the liver is good if we can get enough human genes into the pig.

In other words, if they can put enough human genes into the pig liver, genetically modify it, then maybe

these pig livers will not be rejected so much going into the future.

But as you've already mentioned, Alice, this is not the first type of xenotransplantation that's happened in China.

Earlier on this year, surgeons put a pig lung into a human, and this one lasted only nine days before the lung stopped working.

And then there are other earlier examples of genetic modification in China, some of which are much more controversial.

Probably many listeners will remember in 2019, China put in jail a scientist who'd created the world's first gene-edited babies.

This was called the Designer Baby Case.

And the genes were edited in these twins.

They were twin girls in order to make them immune to HIV.

I was just doing a little bit of research on that.

Now, that researcher is back out of jail and he's back into the lab.

I don't think he's doing any gene editing for humans at this stage.

And the two twin girls, they're apparently in kindergarten, they're about five or six years old at the moment.

But

that was an issue that became very controversial in China and around the world.

But obviously, China is continuing with this gene editing in order to try to aim at medical breakthroughs like this one.

And just to say finally, there are about 300,000 people each year in China that experience liver failure.

And so, if China was able to come up with, you know, a sustainable transplant of pig livers into humans, obviously that would help a great deal.

It would extend many people's lives.

So, yeah, there's really a lot going on.

It's quite a happening scene in China.

Have you been looking at this from an economic perspective or from a market perspective at all?

Well, mainly from an economic perspective, biotech has been, I think, still the strongest performing sector in Chinese markets in terms of year-to-date performance.

So it's even outstripped the tech platform companies.

And a lot of that has to do with, obviously, a lot of government investment and attention being paid to the biotech sector.

It was one of the core pillars of Made in China 2025, and it will probably be in the five-year plan, I think.

And the other aspect of it is that China is becoming an even more popular destination for a lot of Western pharmaceutical companies to do very quick clinical trials?

So the pipeline for clinical trials to product is very, very rapid and affordable in China compared to outside of China.

So I think as a biotech ecosystem, it's become more and more developed.

We've seen RD spending as a percentage of GDP rising to around 2.7% in 2023.

That's up from 0.9%,

you know, admittedly 20 years ago.

But certainly we've seen more attention being paid.

They produce a record number of students every year.

STEM graduates make up about 50% of the world's total every year.

Now, a lot of them are going to AI, that's for sure, but there's definitely, I think, a strong contingent that are going into biotech, which remains one of the hot industries in China.

I just noticed on Friday, as we were all paying attention to the Trump tariffs and export controls, that the state council approved new regulations for biomedical trialing.

And my own reading of it is that it gives a fairly laissez-faire approach to some of the issues that we talk about.

So they list among these areas gene and cell therapies, new organ and tissue transplants, and research that involves human reproductive cells, zygotes, and embryos.

So I think we're very much living in this Frankenstein dystopian future in China because ultimately regulation is a lot less hands-on when it comes to a lot of these more ethical concerns about gene editing or designer babies.

So it'll be interesting to see what other organs that they will use moving forward.

But I think this story is just one example of the way in which China has less barriers to push the frontier in biotech.

Absolutely.

And I think, you know, we're already seeing huge growth in this area.

I mean, I read that global licensing of Chinese biotech products is up over 700%

in the past five years.

So this stuff is all happening in China.

As we can see, there's plenty of breakthroughs going on in biotech, such as in this example of the pig liver.

But then it's being licensed to companies all over the world.

And so, what's happening in China today may well be a product or a procedure that's in our hospitals or on our pharmacy shelves over here, either in the UK or in the US or somewhere else in the world.

the world.

So, this is an area where I think we should be looking at China for a sense of what's coming down the track.

And in some cases, we've already seen some big pharmaceutical companies in the West get disrupted by little-known Chinese upstarts that are making drugs that the big foreign pharmaceutical company sort of relied on for a significant part of their revenue.

And of course, like everything else, it seems that we talk about on this podcast,

the China drug costs a fraction of what the foreign multinational multinational charges for its drugs abroad.

So China's going to be a source of big disruption to the pharmaceutical companies, I feel, in this area of biotech and several other areas.

So, you know,

it's not just unusual stories about pig livers.

This is going to hit the bottom line of some of the biggest companies in the world.

Yeah, and just to quote Morgan Stanley on this, so the revenue from drugs they're predicting originating in China could jump to 34 billion by 2030 and 220 billion by 2040.

That gives you a sense of the scale and growth.

And they also project that approvals by the US FDA, so that's the Food and Drug Administration, for Chinese biotech products could rise from 5% to 35% of all approvals in the near future.

I think that's a pretty startling statistic.

And again, a sign that...

to backtrack to the beginning of the discussion that you know full decoupling between us and china is an outcome that neither side can afford and there are ways in which I think the relationship is actually getting more integrated and more codependent.

So definitely something to track in the future.

All right, that's all for this episode.

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