Can China Beat the U.S. Back to the Moon?

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I know that conventional wisdom is saying, yeah, this is all a process.

They'll get to a deal eventually.

But this time, the emotions are really high.

I just don't know which way it's going to fall.

You might have a better sense than me.

Well, I've long thought that they would rather play kabuki than have anything substantive on paper.

Structurally, there are too many difficult issues and tractable issues at play for them to be resolved as early as this year or even early next year.

So I would be in the same camp as you.

Welcome to China Decode.

I'm Alice Han.

And I'm James King.

In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing how Trump's trade war with Beijing threatens the global economy, the spy scandal that rocked Great Britain, raising major questions about UK-China relations, and experts in the US see China's capabilities in the space sector quickly catching up to theirs.

But who will make it back to the moon first?

All right, James, we've got a lot to get into, but first, let me ask: how has the last week been for you?

Oh, never a dull week in US-China relations, Alice.

I mean, really, it's just keeping us on the treadmill, I can say that.

How about you?

Well, I thought I could take a little bit of a break before the APEC Summit and potential Trump Xi meeting, but it seems that we've transitioned yet again from détente to brinkmanship.

And now, you know, everyone is laser-focused on whether or not there will be a meeting and whether or not there will be a deal.

So, no rest for the wicked, it seems.

All right, well, let's get into it.

Last week, many observers described the escalations in the U.S.-China trade war as existential.

And certainly, James, I'm sure that you have felt this way.

We've been exceptionally busy, I would say, in the last week, we China Watchers.

We've seen potentially massive implications, not just for these two countries, but for the global economy.

We've got things like export controls, rare earth metal restrictions, chip embargoes, and ship docking fees.

Now, these can seem exceptionally bureaucratic and complicated, and frankly, a little bit hard to wrap your head around.

So we're here to try to separate fact from fiction and make it a bit more straightforward, even though I think it is still quite a complicated issue.

It seems that the fate of the world's economy might depend on whether or not they can cut a deal, but I won't be too dramatic and I'll get right into the meat of things.

James, you know, firstly, I want to start off with export controls because I think a lot of people are somewhat confused about what export controls are, how China and the U.S.

have deployed them, what the actual implementation process looks like.

Certainly, what struck me when I looked at the recent bout of export controls was the fact that China has gone further than it did in previous years, in which it was a simple, to some extent, licensure regime.

MOFCOM, the Ministry of Commerce, would basically enforce rules for exporters exporters of rare earths to acquire a license effectively to export out of China.

Now it seems like China has cast a longer shadow and is basically mandating not just domestic companies, but also foreign companies that use as little as 0.1% of the total goods from rare earths coming from China to have to apply to these licenses as well.

That seems to me, when I think about it from a bureaucratic perspective, exceptionally difficult to realize.

And even when I think about in previous years when China put these license regimes in place, these things took time.

In fact, you had issues in Trop 1.0 when licenses weren't delivered on time, supply was somewhat limited, it affected the market.

I find it very hard to believe that Moffcom is going to sit there and physically go through every good line by line that has as little as 0.1% total goods from Chinese rare earths.

What's your take on this, James?

Well, as you said, Alice, everyone's talking about this fight between the US and China in very, very stark terms.

You used the word existential.

Before I get to the details, and let's do a little bit of an explainer of what these export controls really boil down to.

But before I get to that, let's have a little taste of the invective that's reached new heights in recent days going back and forth between the US and China.

In the words of Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times, it's like a couple of heavyweight boxers trash talking each other before a fight, But I think the real question is: is this actually going to come to blows?

Or are the two heavyweight boxers going to patch things up, patch up their differences before the fight occurs?

And we just don't know at this stage what's going to happen in that regard.

But anyway, in terms of the rhetorical punch-up, Scott Besant, the U.S.

Treasury Secretary, said that when it comes to trade, quote, this is China versus the world.

He said said that if Beijing does not withdraw its threat to restrict exports of these rare earth minerals, then the world will have to decouple from China.

You really can't get much starker than that.

Beijing, though, it hit back.

It said that the Trump administration's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China were, quote, a typical example of U.S.

double standards.

And just to add to the whole mood, the Chinese Foreign Ministry put out a video showing

Chairman Mao Zedong during the Korean War, that was in the 1950s, proclaiming, no matter how long this war will last, we will never yield.

So you can see on both sides, in the US and in China, emotions are running really high.

I must say, I've been covering China for more than 35 years.

I've never seen anything like this.

This really is emotional.

But maybe I could give a little bit of a recap, Alice, on, you know, the nuts and bolts of where we are on export controls and what they mean.

That'd be great.

Honestly, I think almost everyone needs this primer, so fire away, James.

Okay.

So on October the 9th.

China's Ministry of Commerce came out with a slew of new regulations on these rare earth exports.

Now, these rare earths have long names that, you know, normally we wouldn't know.

But basically, they're crucial minerals that are used in making everything from smartphones to electric vehicles and also, and this is key, to many different weapons such as submarine engines, radar systems, missile guidance systems, even the F-35 US fighter jet.

Basically what China said is that if you're a foreign company and you want to export products that are made with, as you mentioned, Alice, even a trace of these rare earths that are sourced from China, then you need to apply and get a license from China.

And of course, this is crucial because

China processes about 90%

of the rare earths that are used in the world.

So almost everything, almost all of the high-tech technologies that use these critical minerals are therefore subject to licensing from China.

They added something else onto that, which is that any equipment that you might buy from China in order to process your own rare earths also has to be licensed from China.

So it really gives China a stranglehold over this crucial aspect of global trade.

And it means that if China wanted to, and I'm not saying it will, but if it wanted to, it could simply stop huge chunks of global trade, huge numbers of high-tech goods from being imported and exported.

So I think

that's the really crucial background to this.

How do you see it all panning out from here?

Well, I come back to this conclusion that China kind of bungled this announcement.

And the reason I think about it in this way is that I think

Besant was canny to make it a China versus the rest of the world argument.

We've seen, I think, more moves amongst the G7 countries, I would say in particular, Europe and Japan, to really start to go beyond the rhetoric of getting the act together.

I think that in the coming months, there may be more movements to try to get more of a collaborative set of projects on the ground for alternative supply chains of critical minerals.

And I think that China's, again, the long shadow that it's cast by borrowing America's foreign direct product rule of de minimis or percentage of a component from Chinese critical minerals, that framework or that approach, I think, has really discombobulated and disconcerted a lot of the G7 countries because it effectively gives China the optionality at any given point in time to say, well, look, Brussels, we don't like your policy on X, so we're going to stop the sale or exports of certain types of critical minerals or certain types of goods that have a component of critical minerals from China.

That, I think, at a strategic level is deeply worrying.

I sense that China is trying to backpedal a little bit on this issue because it didn't realize how big a deal it was for a lot of these G7 countries.

But I think the cat is out of the bag already.

And it reminds me somewhat of what happened in 2010, if you recall, with the Japan-China Senkaku Dyutai spat over the islands, in which China then launched a two-month full embargo of rare earths on Japan.

I think

a trigger has been set in place to get the G7 countries, I think, to take a more concerted effort towards supply chain resilience.

What I would add to what you're saying, James, is the fact that America can't do it alone.

America is so behind.

MP Materials is the only company that has mines of rare earths that's actually active in California.

And Novion is the only American company in tangent with Linus, an Australian mining company, that can potentially produce performance magnets.

Performance magnets, as you rightly say, James, that are used in military equipment, in defense equipment, as well as wind turbines, batteries, and EVs.

So I sense that China has this window of opportunity, call it three, four, five years, to have this choke point or rather chokehold on America.

But when you broaden out beyond that five-year horizon, the technology itself isn't difficult.

It's not expensive.

It's just extremely pollutive.

And it requires, I think, in the US case, private-public partnerships.

which again, we can debate whether or not that is possible given the climate.

But certainly if the G7 banded together, I think that they could produce a potential alternative supply chain.

But certainly, in this narrow amount of time, call it three years, I think China has maximum pressure on the rare earths issue.

That's how I think about it more broadly.

Yeah, absolutely.

I very much agree with that.

At least three years, I think.

I must say, though, I do think it's really interesting that there has been a stock price rally in a lot of these companies that produce rare earths outside China.

You mentioned one there, MP Materials, but we've also seen the share price of USA Rare Earth and Australia's Linus, that's an Australian company, that have more than doubled this year.

And we're starting to see as well, the US state itself taking stakes in some of these rare earth companies like Lithium America's, Trilogy Metals, which are two Canadian miners, in attempts to bolster their financial firepower.

So it certainly seems to be the case that we're beginning to make out the contours of the US government being really galvanized by this issue and really putting some money into it.

And investors starting to follow that lead, thinking, wow, there's going to be such a shortage of rare earths that are produced outside China.

This has got to be an opportunity for the investors.

And just to also chime with your comment about the G7 getting galvanized, I noticed that there is similar disquiet about rare earths within the European Union.

And there was a statement by the Aerospace Security and Defense Industries Association of Europe.

Apologies for the long name, but it's a big organization that represents about 4,000 companies, mostly in sort of aerospace and military.

And they've put out a statement saying they're keeping a watchful eye on new Chinese measures.

That's that's kind of diplomatic language for we're really scared about this, we're really anxious about this.

And so I would say the impetus in Europe for doing something, perhaps with America, perhaps going it alone, is fairly strong as well.

But as you say, Alice, that will be in the long term.

We're talking several years.

And in the meantime, minimum three years, China has the whip hand.

And China therefore can use this leverage in its negotiations with America.

And that's exactly what's happening right now.

So we're back to the analogy of the Chinese prize fighter trash-talking the American prize fighter ahead of what we think will be quite bruising negotiations between the US and China to reach some kind of a deal.

Frankly, I don't know if they will reach a deal.

I still remain skeptical.

I know that conventional wisdom is saying, yeah, this is all a process.

They'll get to a deal eventually, but this time, the emotions are really high.

I just don't know which way it's going to fall.

You might have a better sense than me.

Well, I've long thought that they would rather play kabuki than have anything substantive on paper.

Structurally, there are too many difficult issues, intractable issues at play for them to be resolved as early as this year or even early next year.

So I would be in the same camp as you.

And just to tack onto what you said, I was in Rome over the weekend, talked to a civil servant in Roman politics.

And they intimated to me that before these export controls that China launched, there was a feeling that Europe could hedge between US and China and maybe marginally move more in the China direction.

But certainly that export control announcement has, I think, pushed Europe to reconsider that strategy.

And in fact, I think that that might end up being China's Achilles heel.

And in fact, it may have shot itself in the foot by doing this.

Two sort of quick factoids that I'll put out there so that listeners can get a sense of just the enormity of China's advantage in this space is China has 50% of the world's reserves naturally in its own borders, more than any other country.

It mines 70% of the world's rare earths and is responsible for 90% of the processing, as you say, James.

And the US is 13% of the world's rare earth reserves.

And most mining activity has stopped since the early 2000s.

So you get a sense of how far back the US has been because of what happened over 20 years ago.

That's something to bear in mind.

Okay, James, we'll be back with more after a quick break, so stay with us.

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Welcome back.

In April of last year, the UK government charged two men with gathering and providing information to China.

Spying, in other words.

Christopher Cash, a former parliamentary researcher, and Christopher Berry, a teacher and consultant, were alleged to have passed intelligence to a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party on over 30 occasions from December 2021 to February 2023.

Now, this case was set to go to trial until, abruptly last month, all the charges were subsequently dropped.

Prosecutors said that the government had failed to provide sufficient evidence that China posed a national security threat.

Facing pressure to explain what happened last week, the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly released three witness statements from the case, each written by Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Collins.

And they contain some, I would say, pretty sensational details with far-ranging consequences for the future of not just UK politics, but UK-China relations.

James, I have to ask you, I'm so curious, I've been reading up about this the last few weeks.

As a Brit, how significant is this case?

Certainly, espionage wasn't born overnight.

We've had a long history of espionage, but this seems to have really gripped the national and international imagination.

Can you walk us through some of the details?

How did we get to this stage where we've got these two Christophers who were implicated in this national security fiasco?

Yeah, absolutely, Alice.

I mean, you know, just stepping back from the details of the case for a minute, you're so right.

The media has been in a frenzy over this in the UK.

I mean, maybe it's something to do with the UK national psyche.

We all love John LeCarre, we love spy novels.

I love John LeCarre.

Many of us live through the tail end of the Cold War.

You know, we remember the spy exchanges across the Misty Bridges in Berlin at the height of the Cold War.

So this really gets the national interest ticking away.

But just to come back to the case itself, I think that the reason why this spy case in the UK is important is because it's much more than than a spy case.

It shows how countries, in this case, the UK, but possibly in the future, many more countries in the West, have to manage the conflict between their security interests and their economic interests.

Obviously, China is a major security player these days.

I'll be talking a little bit more about things like cyber hacking, cyber spying.

China's clearly a big security challenge for all countries in the West.

But of course, at the same time, it's a massive market for many of the biggest companies that we have.

So that's the fundamental dividing line that I think this case helps to illuminate.

As you said, Alice, the case against the two men accused of spying for China was dropped last month.

And the Director of Public Prosecutions said that the British government had failed to provide sufficient evidence that China was, quote, a threat to national security.

It has to be said: both of the two men accused of spying have consistently denied any allegations of wrongdoing.

That needs to be very clear.

But then, what happened, which really created a flurry of controversy, was that the government released three witness statements from Matthew Collins, Deputy National Security Advisor.

And in each of these statements, it's clear that Collins says that China is a threat to national security.

Just to give you the detail on that, in the first statement, he says the Chinese state poses, quote, a threat to our people, prosperity, and security.

In the second statement, he describes various ways in which the government believes it's been hacked, cyber-hacked, of course, by Chinese state actors.

And in the third statement, he talks of, quote, active espionage threats posed by China to the UK.

So which is it?

Is it, you know, as the government said throughout this case, that you couldn't provide sufficient evidence that China is a threat to national security?

Or is it, as Matthew Collins suggested in his three statements, that China is indeed a threat to national security?

I'm not saying that one of these precludes the other.

The important thing to mention here is that the case was never tried.

we don't know if countervailing evidence would have come out in the case that would have weakened the assertion of the British state that indeed China is a threat to national security.

We just don't know that because the case was never tried.

But there is, it seems to me, an objective discrepancy between what Matthew Collins says and what the British government ruled.

So that's the basic contradiction that we're dealing with here.

Now, added to all of this is the sense, certainly among some politicians, that the reason the British government threw the case out was nothing to do with the merits of the case itself.

It was actually political.

And in this regard, we've got the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, saying that the events, i.e., the events around the case, leave, and I should be careful about what I'm quoting here: quote, a strong impression that your government, i.e., the current Labour government in the UK, a strong impression that your government undermined Britain's national security because you are too weak to do anything other than appease China.

So

you can see from Kenny Badenock's statement there, she's saying effectively that this was a political decision.

Honestly, we have no clue because we don't know all of the ins and outs of the case that was never tried.

But it is is certainly, as you said at the beginning, Alice, this is certainly creating a storm of controversy here and raising all kinds of questions about the UK's relations with China.

I mean the irony I was thinking as you were talking, James, is that this really happened during the Conservative government.

I mean, one of the Christophers, I believe, was Christopher Cash, who is a parliamentary researcher.

He was working for Tom Tugenhat, a backbencher in the Conservative government at the time.

So for Kemi Badenock to come out and say this,

I think might be a little bit hypocritical or strike one as being ironic, given that even before the Labour government, the Conservative government, say, under Cameron, was trying to pave the way for a golden relationship with China.

That's something that sort of struck me as you were talking.

But it sort of begs the broader question, which is

the UK I think has oftentimes treated China from a more commercial point of view rather than an ideological point of view.

I think it differs from the US, again, primarily for strategic reasons, because China is not considered a strategic rival in the same way that it is by the US.

But certainly, I think the UK feels as though there are a lot of commercial stakes at play, which potentially is driving this, you know, arguably more dovish position on China.

I was hearing from some people in the national security community that there are concerns about Chinese malware being added to electronics and goods that are then delivered and shipped to the UK.

What's your sense of this broader broader strategic and espionage challenge that China poses for the UK?

Because it doesn't seem to have the same restrictions on Chinese goods and technologies that, say, Washington has.

Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, this is the big background to the whole case.

And I was just doing some research.

There is a fascinating new report out by the UK National Cyber Security Center this month that shows a big increase in cyber attacks on the UK.

And many of these cyber attacks, of course, are trying to get sensitive information, whether it be corporate sensitive information or government sensitive information.

And the report found that 74%

of UK IT leaders, these are people that were canvassed by the report, identified China as a top concern.

In other words, a top concern behind the cyber attacks.

And that was a bigger percentage than was applied to any other country.

So in other words, China is seen by the UK's leading IT professionals as the biggest concern in terms of a country when it comes to cyber attacks.

Now, 18 of the cyber attacks mentioned in this report significantly impacted essential services in the UK or the wider economy.

So, these are regarded as really big, significant cyber attacks.

And the report also says that a quote serious incident of cyber hacking or cyber attacking is now occurring at a rate of nearly one every two days in the UK.

So, you know, if you ask me about this sort of trade-off between economic interests, many of our biggest companies sell lots of products and goods in China.

Many of them invest in the Chinese economy and they need good relations with China.

But on the other side of the ledger, we've got this really worsening security situation that makes China look like the perpetrator, as you mentioned, of espionage and also of cyber hacking, cyber attacking on

really important government and corporate entities.

So it's a tough one.

If you force me to make a judgment, I think that the security concerns will gradually eclipse the economic benefits.

And I think the orientation of policy will turn gradually more cautious towards China.

Yeah, you arguably have seen the same thing with immigration, where reform has moved the Overton window towards the Labour Party having a more hawkish position on immigration.

And I think I would agree with you, James.

And again, to put it into the context of our first segment, which was about China shooting itself in the foot over rare earths, I sense that China's peak geopolitical power was probably just after the summer.

I sense the tides are shifting because, to your point, we're hearing more stories about cybersecurity risks in the US posed by China and in the UK as well.

So, I sense that there is somewhat of a shift.

But, one last thing that I'll add is that China is planning a super embassy, so to speak, in London, but this may be at risk.

Apparently, this proposed facility would stretch across 20,000 square meters and it will be the largest embassy in all of Europe.

So, apparently, the proposal of the future of this project has been delayed until December 10th.

It may be delayed beyond that, but that's certainly something to keep keep in mind.

All right, so let's take a quick break.

Stay with us.

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Well, welcome back.

James, this has to be my favorite segment for today, and that is whether or not China can get to the moon.

China's advancements in science and technology aren't just in artificial intelligence.

They're making huge strides into outer space, with many observers noting that China may have the resources to beat America back to the moon.

In the US, NASA, along with Elon Musk's SpaceX as a partner, announced the Artemis III mission just a couple of years ago, which is planned for 2027.

But some high-profile launch failures have raised concerns that SpaceX might be behind schedule, and the budget cuts and ongoing government shutdown have hollowed out NASA.

The White House, I was looking looking at this the other day, proposed a 24% cut to NASA's budget in 2026, bringing the budget to the lowest levels seen since 1961.

And that was before they landed a man on the moon.

Meanwhile, China successfully completed their mission on the far side of the moon last year, which was the first of its kind.

And Beijing has said that they want to land humans on the moon by 2030.

I find this fascinating because as a kid, I've always loved space.

But I also think this is fascinating for two reasons, James.

One is in the context of great power rivalry.

And the other one is the way in which a lot of these space technologies have dual use implications.

What struck me when I was researching this was the similarities between the Soviet and US relationship during the early part of the Cold War.

It was really Sputnik, the Soviets' launching of the first satellite into space in 1957 that prompted the creation of NASA by Eisenhower a year later in 1958.

And it was subsequently the Soviets who got Yuri Gagarin and a dog into space that prompted Kennedy's famous speech, We Choose to Go to the Moon.

The US, in some respects, was propelled by the Soviets to race to the moon and to race to space.

And as soon as the Soviet Union collapsed, it was almost as if NASA and the whole project to go to the moon collapsed as well.

But I think the dynamic is shifting again now with China really wanting to get what it calls tichonauts, so to borrow a Chinese term, its version of astronauts into space.

That project, I think, is propelling the Trump administration to launch the project Artemis, which is to get American men and women back onto the moon.

I think this is a really, really interesting case study of how great power rivalry pushes people along the technological frontier and a great story for how conflict really breeds technological innovation, whether you look at shipbuilding through the 17th, 18th century, you look at the nuclear bomb in the middle of the 20th century, and fast forward to now you look at the space race and all the attendant technologies.

Part of this is going to be a satellite discussion.

And I'm curious to hear what your thoughts are on this, James, where China has roughly about 900 satellites in orbit, and it's overtaken the UK as this country with the second most satellites, but it's still quite a bit behind the US.

I mean, the US is 9,000 satellites in orbit, and I was calculating it spends about 10 times more than the Chinese on the space sector, although China is exponentially growing it.

So it remains to be seen how this all pans out in this greater space race.

But again, I'm very curious what you have to say on this, James, and whether or not you're a fan of space.

Yeah, I'm a big fan of space.

Just like Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, I've been coming up with some quotes that he's had on space recently.

But as I see it, this race back to the moon, because of course the US put a man on the moon in 1972 and China has yet to put a man on the moon or a woman on the moon, is really focusing people's attention.

The Chinese have said, as you pointed out, Alice, that they want to put a person on the moon before 2030.

So that seems way beyond the current schedule for the SpaceX system, which is called Starship Human Landing System,

which is scheduled for 2027.

But as you alluded to, there is a sense that the SpaceX program could be delayed.

There seems to be some issues, and of course, the SpaceX lunar lander needs to be built.

So we really don't know who is ahead at the moment.

By the way, in August this year, China successfully tested its own lunar lander, not in space, but on dry land in a northern Chinese province.

And everything seemed to work fine.

The ascend systems, the descend systems, it all seemed to go well, according to reports.

And this lunar lander, which is called Lan Yue, which means embrace the moon in Chinese, is going to serve as a living space, a power source, and a data center after it lands on the moon.

So it's quite an ambitious project in itself.

And this brings me to Xi Jinping and what the nature of China's true true lunar ambitions really are.

First of all, Xi Jinping is what we would call a big space nut.

I mean, he talks boldly about going into space, using celestial bodies for human advancement.

He talks about intraplanetary exploration.

He really loves the whole topic.

And last year, he went into rhetorical raptures when, as you said, this China lunar module picked up samples from the dark side of the moon for the first time ever.

But to me, it raises questions as to what China's end game is.

You know, what are its lunar ambitions?

Is it just wanting to put somebody onto the moon and gain the propaganda success that that will bring?

Or is it going after what's on the moon?

Resources, maybe even some of the rare earths that we were talking about at the top of the program.

Maybe China wants to claim parts of the moon.

I think these questions are sort of lurking out somewhere in mid-orbit, and they may become a lot more germane as China goes forward.

But in general, as you said, Alice, the US is still quite a long way ahead when it comes to space in just about every metric.

You mentioned the satellites, the US has got many more successful orbital launches than China, and the US has been spending much more than China over many years.

So the US is ahead, but this effort by China to put somebody on the moon before 2030 really, I think, focuses the attentions on what China's really planning for space and what it's going to do when it gets there, when it gets to the moon.

I mean, I think about this in relation to how China conceives of great power politics.

It wants to have a seat at the table, whether it's in the Arctic or whether it's in the multilateral institutions.

I think it's China saying, look, we want to be front and center more than we have ever been and actually have a stake.

I thought it was quite interesting that in 2024, so last June, China planted a national flag made from basalt fiber on the far side of the moon.

And apparently, this is indestructible.

And the whole point is that Americans can see this, or the rest of the world can see this, without it being ever destroyed.

I thought that was an interesting

visual depiction of China's ambitions.

But the other two ways that I think about this issue at play, number one is China is not privy to the research sharing of the Artemis Accord that the US launched.

So the US shares information with, I would say, largely allied countries when it comes to space-related data.

China instead launched its own rival initiative called the International Lunar Research Station Initiative with Russia and a host of other countries.

I would say largely small global south countries like Senegal and Venezuela and Nicaragua.

But that, again, shows you how China really does want to have a seat at the table.

The second thing that I would say is the way that I think about this is kind of like the race to the vaccine back in COVID, is that the U.S.

benefited from this strong relationship between a very innovative private sector, in the case of the vaccines Moderna, the mRNA technology, and the military-industrial complex led by the government.

So Operation Warp Speed really made America the frontrunner in the vaccine race.

And I think a similar dynamic is at play when we think about SpaceX, Elon Musk's SpaceX relationship with the US government.

I mean, it's baffling to me, James, that I wonder what Kennedy would actually think if you were to come to the present day and realize that actually most of the satellites and most of the successful launches are made by a private company owned by Elon Musk, a South African.

So it's you know, SpaceX conducts fifty-two percent of all global orbital launches and it controls more than seven thousand six hundred satellites.

That's sixty-five percent of all active satellites in orbit.

And Musk has made it very clear that he wants Stalin to be the de facto broadband backbone of space.

So I think, again, we've got this Rockefeller-like figure who's playing a decisive role and may ultimately put the U.S.

ahead.

That's my hot take.

That's a very good point.

It's a private company led by a South African, contracted by the U.S.

space agency, NASA.

And this is so different from the Chinese effort, which is obviously state-led, state-funded, state-controlled.

It's basically the Chinese state that's going to space.

Exactly.

So, yeah, two very different models at play in this space race.

All right, James.

Last week, we did skip this.

So, now it's time for prediction time.

Each week, James and I are going to put forward one prediction about something China-related.

So, why don't you go first and then I'll share mine.

Okay, Alice, I think, you know, we've got some big Chinese meetings coming up.

We've got the fourth plenum, which I won't go into, just suffice it to say, it's a big Communist Party meeting.

I think the most important technology aspect of the Chinese plenum this month will be artificial intelligence.

And I think it will also be the most important technology aspect of the five-year plan, which will be announced next spring and which will follow the plenum.

The reason why I think this is important is because China's got a different approach to AI from the United States.

In the US, a lot of the energies with regard to artificial intelligence are about a moonshot towards what's called artificial general intelligence, AGI, which is supposed to be the time when machines can basically teach themselves.

But China's approach, as will be seen in this plenum and subsequently in the five-year plan published next spring, is to use AI as applications to drive just about every other form of human endeavor.

And so I think that there will be a plan explicitly which will say that AI needs to be incorporated in 90%

of the equipment and applications by 2030 in six broad sectors.

And these are science and technology, industrial development, consumption, people's well-being, governance capability, and global cooperation.

So the point I'm trying to make is that China wants to use AI to power technologies and to make money, and that's its main concern.

Of course, it's also going for artificial general intelligence, just like the US is, but on the way there, it's trying to make money from AI and use AI, harness AI to power basically the whole country.

So it couldn't be more important.

I think that this plenum and the subsequent five-year plan will be seen as historic with regard to how much it pushed artificial intelligence.

Yeah, I would agree with that.

And I think a lot of the focus will be on some of these choke point industries where China may relatively be somewhat vulnerable chips, for instance, some aspects of biotech and aviation equipment.

And to your point, James, I would agree with you.

I think this might be one of the most consequential five-year plans we've seen in a while.

So watch this space this time next week.

We'll give everyone a lowdown of what actually happened at the five-year plan.

All right, so my take is somewhat left-field or rather more Japanese-shaped.

I've been reading a lot about the future potential prime minister of Japan, who in some circles is known as the Japanese Thatcher, the Iron Lady.

She will be the first female prime minister of Japan, and she will lead a very, I think, hawkish pivot again on China policy.

When you read some of her works, and she's apparently a prolific writer, China is a big focus in her writings as a strategic rival and adversary.

I sense that under her leadership, we may see more inroads into nuclearization.

Japan may ultimately get a nuclear bomb.

That may change the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula, on Taiwan, straight relations, on the China issue writ large.

And secondly, back to the critical minerals point, I think she could be part of the pivot amongst the G7 to lean in a more hawkish direction, to collaborate more amongst each other, and to decouple further from China.

I sense that maybe she and Trump will be the new Thatcher and Reagan of our times.

That's my hot take for the week.

All right, that's all for this episode.

Thank you for listening to China Decode.

This is a production of Prof G Media.

Our producer is David Toledo.

Our associate producer is Eric Genikis.

Our research associate is Dan Shallan.

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And we'll talk to you again next week.

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