77. TRUMP BACKS DOWN - TARIFFS FROZEN

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AKA Charlie Sheen, only on Netflix, September 10th.

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Welcome to the Rest is Politics U.S.

I am Anthony Scaramucci, and I'm bumping in here ahead of our original podcast.

Right now, it is about 7 p.m.

U.K.

time, 2 p.m.

here on the East Coast in the United States.

There's a new announcement from the Trump administration, ever-changing, which is why we're bringing you this new information.

The president has capitulated on tariffs, a volatile trading session here in New York.

The Dow Jones is up over a thousand points right now.

And my MAGA sources are telling me that Secretary of Treasury Scott Bescent

had a little bit of a face-off with the president, said that he was probably going to have to leave the administration if they didn't do something differently.

And so now it looks like he's got the ball on tariffs, and he is basically telling people we're going to suspend these now at least for 90 days.

Positive activity in the global markets.

Hopefully, that will prevent some of the retaliation that's already been out there from the Western European leaders and the Chinese.

And unfortunately, not joining me at this moment is Miss One Arm Bandit herself, who's located somewhere in an undisclosed casino location in Las Vegas, living it up right now.

So she's not going to be joining us for this intro here,

my erstwhile partner, Katie Kaye.

But good news, and I'll just point out three things I think are positive about this.

The cooler, more rational heads are prevailing in the Trump administration, away from the Navarros and the Luttnicks.

Number two, I think House Republicans have also flexed here a little bit and said that their very thin majority in the House is going to be jeopardized if they continue on this course.

And last but not least, in a personal face-off, in a personal conflict, Donald Trump, being a conflict avoider, I think did not want to have this on his face here that Bassett was going to leave the administration as a result of these tariffs.

In the final analysis, even though he's frozen the trade tariffs on most countries, at least reduced them down to 10% and they're going to hold them there for 90 days to allow for some negotiations.

He's upping the ante on China to 125%.

You'll hear in this broadcast, we said 104, but it looks like it's going to 125.

And you'll hear Caddy and my analysis about why this is so dangerous.

Enjoy the episode, guys.

Thanks for listening.

Caddy, here we are.

We're living in an economic horror movie.

Trump is slamming China with 104% tariffs.

Beijing is hitting back, Caddy K.

And the markets around the world are in turmoil.

EU hitting back too, right?

EU is hitting back.

But we're having a billionaire slug fest as well.

Musk and Ackman are going off on Trump.

Musk offered an apology on X last night to Bricks because he said that Peter Navarro was as dumb as bricks, and he thought that that was an insult to the bricks.

And so Elon has said, I'm sorry to the bricks out there, which I do think is true right away.

I think he's dumber than a box of bricks.

But the call is coming from inside the house in this horror movie.

It happens to be inside the White House.

A man wearing an orange wig.

We're just looking for his hockey mask.

And there is a cleaver out there.

It's cleaving at my portfolio, Caddy.

But how are you?

Can I just show you where I am?

Let me see the view.

Let me see.

There you go.

Welcome to Vegas, baby.

Treasure Island.

But then look at this.

Look at my actual view.

Oh, yeah, there's the Trump protest.

Do you see it?

The big, tall, gold Trump tower.

Okay, just to disgrace myself with all of our viewers and listeners, I've done more than one fundraiser eating very shitty chicken in that lobby there, but that's fine.

But anyway, look, I mean, this is, there's so much to talk about.

We should talk about the markets.

We should talk about the little bit of pushback that we're starting to see, not just from the billionaires, but also from Republicans who suddenly seem to have become aware of the fact that this is not great for them or their voters.

Donors who are saying, hold on a second, what?

You were really serious about tariffs?

Although Donald Trump has been saying that for decades.

But also Trump's own state of mind.

I've had a couple of conversations with people who are fairly close to the President and

know him well and have said, look, he is in this mode of

bragging that he has, and he's said it in public, he's got world leaders begging him for a good deal.

Other countries are on their knees asking for the best possible negotiating terms.

He has a real sort of sense that he has to prove all the naysayers wrong, that he did that by winning the election, he did that by rebranding January the 6th as another kind of liberation day for MAGA,

and that he feels he's going to prove the naysayers wrong on this one.

Well, I mean, it's I'm not a psychologist, obviously.

I think the guy is unwell.

I think that there's a

there's an issue related to all of this narcissism that he's displaying to the world.

But what I can't figure out, Caddy, and I'd like your help on this because you live in Washington.

This is malpractice.

This is completely irresponsible.

It's almost like we've got Biff from Back to the Future, is now the President of the United States, and he's a bully in the lunchroom.

And so we're going to go to this tariff, and you're going to go to that tariff, and we're going to go tit for tat.

And Trump is, to use a George Bush word, which isn't really a word, he's misunderestimating the Chinese, and he's misunderestimating.

That's not a word, Anthony.

I thought it was for so long.

I'm hoping that the erstwhile Oxford Dictionary will eventually make it a word so I can use it more regularly.

But he's misunderestimating China and Canada because, again, again, the Chinese have a history of poverty,

and they'll lock in now.

They'll be at 104% tariffs.

The yuan is plummeting.

People are saying, well, why are you allowing that to happen?

They're not going to back down from Donald Trump.

The Canadians, I think Mark Carney has more or less said that as well.

Okay, and so

we're in for it.

Now, Trump is out this morning.

We're recording

this morning, Wednesday, April 9th.

Trump is out this morning saying, be cool.

Do you know how many times I heard Trump say that in my life?

Be cool.

You have

ready to throw up when I hear it.

It's almost like Pavlov's dog.

I hear it, I get nauseous.

So, what the be cool is: I am an arsonist.

I'm going to set the house of the global economy on fire, and then I'm going to run in with a fire hose to put it out and then declare victory.

And then that's the be cool that Trump is talking about.

This fear factor that is pervading, that Trump so quickly in less than three months has managed to permeate through academia with his attacks on universities, through the press with lawsuits, and you've already had some major companies capitulating

through businesses who I've been told by a couple of CEOs I've spoken to and asked this question, you know, where is the business community?

Why aren't they speaking out?

And they said, well, it's fear.

You don't want the whole of the kind of MAGA ecosystem suddenly turning on you.

And so they don't want to speak out.

And then the Republicans, I I mean, it's interesting that you have had just this morning as we're speaking,

Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana has clearly decided in the last 24 hours that he needs to get a message across to Donald Trump.

And he is speaking on every outlet there is.

He was on Morning Joe this morning and he's saying, listen, this is Donald Trump's economy now.

That's the kind of warning to the White House.

This is your economy.

You own this.

And by the way, the polls are starting to show that the American public doesn't like this.

And then what was also interesting was hearing Senator Kennedy say,

in an almost direct kind of piece of advice to the president: look, take the win.

You did the right thing.

You've got these people coming to you.

Now do the deals and let's stop the madness, is really what Kennedy is saying.

So you've got a few.

You've got, what, now, seven or eight Republican senators who say that it's time for Congress to take back a little bit more control over tariffs in particular.

I got to ask you about Elon Musk

because Elon Musk is now.

Are you loving this?

I'm kind of loving this.

The Elon Musk Peter Navarro sideshow of all of this.

We needed something a little spicy.

I'm like Elon.

I accept Elon's on the spectrum, and so a lot of this shit is probably not.

You have not been so complimentary about Elon for the last few months.

Can I just say that?

Okay,

because I think what he's doing is asinine, but I think he's now, I think the Newtonian apple has hit him on the head, and he's now sitting there there saying, okay, wait a minute,

this is a little crazy.

But hold on, just on that quickly before you get to Elon Peter Navarro, the number of donors and Republicans who have become recent supporters of Donald Trump who are suddenly like, oh,

oh,

you mean he meant this?

He was actually going to impose these tariffs and trash the American stock market and economy.

I didn't realize he really meant that.

Like he hasn't been saying this for months anyway.

I don't know where they will.

I don't know where they've been under a rock for the the last three months.

We're going to get to the you turning Bill Ackman in a second, but I just want to talk about Elon for a second because if you can't see me, if you're driving in your car or walking around outside your house right now, if you can't see me, my little finger is up to my lips.

And I'm going to channel my Austin powers, Dr.

Evil, and say, Elon, the man that you have elected, you have lost $100 billion.

Okay, so I'm just asking you, is that a good move?

I mean, he took $100 billion out of your ass, okay, because he's a malevolent guy and he wants to harm people.

And you have to understand that a lot of this is about getting attention, Caddy K.

Are you talking about me?

Oh, that's fantastic.

He turned to two of my buddies who are still MAGA people in the White House and said, quote unquote, can you believe the Wall Street guys how upset they are?

And he said it with this level of jubilation.

By the way, I'm cool.

I've been doing this for 40 years.

I'm really not that upset, other than the fact that it is my country and it is people of our country and fellow citizens of the world that he's harming.

That's what has me upset.

It's not my portfolio that has me upset.

It's that we have a malevolent actor inside the White House, this august institution called the American Presidency that we used to revere.

And we've got willing supplicants, Caddy.

That's the thing I don't get.

You have to help me with that.

Okay,

you're cheaper to talk to than my therapist, Caddy.

So please help me.

Help me explain the willing supplicants because I can't figure that one out.

Well, I think some of that is the fear factor that Trump has cast this kind of spell, a bit like Sleeping Beauty, over the Republican Party in general.

And now they're terrified.

I mean, the point is, he has these believers around him, right?

So Stephen Miller, who is not being talked about very much in this context, but because he's mostly associated with immigration, my understanding actually is that he's really weighing in on this one.

He is backing up the president.

He is supporting the pro-tariff agenda, urging the president not to back down.

He's also in this camp of if you back down, you look weak.

So, don't do anything that makes it look like you are capitulating or that you've capitulated to those Wall Street elitist types.

Then you've got, obviously, Peter Navarro, who spent four months in prison for Donald Trump during the Biden administration,

took a bullet in order not to disclose conversations that he had had with President Trump.

He was charged with contempt and therefore sent to prison for 120 days.

If you spend 120 days in prison for Donald Trump, that is going to impress Donald Trump.

That wins you a lot of loyalty.

So he is somebody that has still a lot of loyalty.

Russ Vought, I think, is in this camp of being a true believer.

Obviously, there are others around the president as well.

Bob Lighthouser, who you've spoken about, who is a believer, but I suspect would have been more sober about how to enact these tariffs, which is probably why he's not in there.

And the only one who is really raising his voice is your dear, newly beloved friend, Elon Musk.

And where's that going to get him?

That's interesting.

Where's that going to get him?

Well,

I predict that Elon will sheepishly return to the Democratic Party.

And the question is, are the Democrats going to be smart enough to open the tent and let them back in?

Because if I were them, I would do that.

And I would suck up the cancellation business and all the stupidity, stop setting the Teslas on fire, let them back in.

And by the way, I have empathy for people because I made this mistake with Donald Trump.

What I don't understand is there's 10 years of data now.

I made this mistake in 2016.

I went to work for Trump.

I bought into the dilemma of working class families and the need to help them.

The great irony of this in the last 10 years, the only people that have really been helping them was the Biden legislative agenda.

But of course, the president was sunsetting, so he couldn't articulate the agenda, couldn't get on the soapbox and explain the agenda.

And so now we've had the return of Trump, and we have this new manifestation of an ogre that's out of control.

And I think the right way to handle them is what the Chinese and the Canadians are doing, which is, no problem, we're going to lock in the cockpit with you until we break you.

And they're making the bet.

Remember this, Caddy, and I want you to react to this.

They're making the bet that the U.S.

system will absorb Donald Trump, meaning there's still enough checks and balances in the system.

There's still enough wise people, the Rand Pauls, the John Kennedys of Louisiana, the Tom Emmers, that will say, okay, guy, we're going to now caucus with the Democrats because we need to save the system from your insanity.

And so, again, I've maintained with political leaders say to me, well, what would I do?

Don't answer the phone.

He wants to put tariffs on you, no problem.

Put tariffs back on him.

So you're for the retaliation.

Go for the tariff war.

What the Europeans are doing, what the Chinese are doing, is the right tariff.

Yeah, because it will break him.

Unless you're telling me the U.S.

system is going to collapse because of one orange human being, then okay.

But I'm for breaking him because he he is perversely bad for the system, he's bad for the United States, and he's bad for the global economy.

And so the smart people in the United States that are political leaders say, okay, enough of this, this is wrong.

And they'll start caucusing away from him because they'll have to.

They won't really have a choice.

But remember this, the guys that are saying on Twitter, like the Kyle Basses that are saying, oh, the Chinese have no hand, you know, they have a poor hand, all this card shit.

None of these guys play poker, by the way, because the metaphors they use, they're not even correct, but they don't have the cards and all this stupid nonsense.

The Chinese don't care.

Don't fight the Chinese and don't fight the Canadians until you understand their culture.

Okay, these are people that fall in ice ponds.

Okay, they're skating around on the ice.

There's a crack in the ice.

They fall in and their buddies go over after they're freezing their asses off and pull them out of the ice pond.

And then they say that was a warm dip.

That's That's the Canadians for you.

Yeah, exactly.

Okay, so that's the people you want to fight with.

I personally don't want to fight with them.

If you want to fight with the Chinese, you haven't been to rural China to understand how these people think.

And so go ahead and fight with the Chinese.

And there's no need.

There's no need to do this.

But if you're a European leader listening, lock in, take on the bully, and you'll collapse the bully, and we can get through this nonsense.

He had 4% unemployment, 2.5%, 3% growth.

He was on the inflection point of an AI boom, not only for the United States, but for the rest of the world.

And in four months, he's taken $14 trillion out of the stock market.

So I spoke to somebody on the Chinese thing, and I do think it's interesting because I think there's quite a lot of confusion around the world and in China about what Donald Trump really wants, what the game plan is.

I think everybody is trying to work out, is this a long-term play?

Is he going to negotiate?

Does he just want, as one former advisor to Donald Trump put it to me from the first administration, he just wants the conflict.

At this point, he just wants the fight.

And what Donald Trump doesn't realize or doesn't appreciate enough is that all of these leaders have their own domestic constituents, particularly the Chinese.

And somebody who advises Trump on China said to me, look, the Chinese are confused because for them, this is for the Chinese Communist Party, this is existential.

I mean, this isn't just about winning another election or getting approval ratings up.

That's not their concern.

This is about the survival of the party.

And they're not going to let Donald Trump steamroll them on that.

They can't afford to.

I mean, it's just not an option for Xi Jinping.

He has to go all in on fighting Trump on this.

And they're surprised in Beijing that Trump doesn't...

understand

other countries' political imperatives.

I mean, let alone that he doesn't understand that the Canadians might jump into a pool of ice and say that was warm and cozy.

Every leader, I mean, the European Union is just proving that.

They can't afford to roll over and just accommodate the Chinese.

After the break, I want to talk about the system, though, because I'm not sure I agree with you.

I have been somebody that's been very sober about

the system and the chances of Trump being contained, but I'm starting to wonder if I have another point of view now on that.

So we should talk about that.

But I know we have to break, but you know, I don't like the break, so I just want to say two sentences, if you don't mind.

This is about the the Chinese quickly.

They are teeing up and blasting off on J.D.

Vance.

Okay, they have pushed out on all social media in China.

They're playing

ad nauseum the interview of J.D.

Vance saying that we're borrowing from peasants in China to buy

stuff that are being made by peasants with the insinuation that all the Chinese are peasants.

And this is how I know from the propaganda perspective of what's going on in communist China, the Communist Party, is that they are locked in, Caddy.

They've turned him into a villain in China, which means they have to stay locked in in this tariff fight.

We have Tariff War One has begun, started by Donald Trump.

And you can now take your break, but I needed to get that in.

You're right.

And the nationalist bloggers in China are calling this a war.

And the Chinese are saying they are not.

going to back down on this one.

So

let's see where this goes.

I don't think this is what a lot of advisors to Donald Trump expected from the second term.

But as you say, there's not a lot of them that are going to stick their necks out apart from Elon Musk, who has an awful lot of money and a platform on which to do it and say enough is enough.

And by the way, quickly before our break, didn't you love Caroline Levitt, the press secretary saying boys will be boys about the Peter Navarro Elon Musk's bat?

She is, she's kind of phenomenal.

I'm intrigued by her, her level of confidence and the way she handles all of this.

Okay, we're going to take a quick break and come back with whether the system will actually hold.

Hello, it's Steph McGovern and Robert Peston from the Rest is Money here.

Now it's absolute carnage at the minute on the stock market across the world, all thanks to Donald Trump and his tariffs.

So this week, we've gone daily.

We're going to bring you shorter episodes every lunchtime, just trying to make sense of it all because, Robert, I mean, we've been in crises before, haven't we?

Yeah, I mean, I've been at the front line of reporting financial crises for decades, from Black Monday and 1987, through the global financial crisis, through to the COVID crisis.

I mean, you know, the list goes on.

This is a unique crisis because it is driven by one man, Donald Trump, but it does share lots in common with those sagas we have lived through before.

And as we know, although what people see is falling share prices, it is to an extent what goes on in debt markets, financial markets, which is more important to our prosperity.

And we are seeing absolute turmoil in bond markets, for example.

So, this is going to affect every part of our lives.

Yes, and so we'll be looking at things like what do we think is going to happen next, how much pain is Trump willing to take, and what similarities are there with things like the credit crunch that you and I covered together.

So, to try and make sense of all of this,

join us on The Rest is Money, wherever you get your podcasts.

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Welcome back to the rest is politics US.

I'm Katie Kay with the very silent and non-talkative Anthony Scaramucci, who has just revealed that he doesn't like breaks because he might be mid-flow and God forbid that he should be interrupted.

I thought that was very insightful of you.

That showed a lot of

self-awareness.

Listen, just while we were in the break, I got a text from an EU official who said to me this rather alarming thing.

So I thought I'd bring it up just at the beginning of this and see what you think about it.

Part of the real worry is that no one really knows what Trump wants.

And that's what we were saying.

The Chinese don't really know what Trump wants.

The EU doesn't really know what Trump wants.

Probably the Canadians don't really know what Trump wants, apart from the fact that he wants to make Canada the 51st state.

Here is what worried me about the text.

This guy wrote to me: he said, Listen, a good war is always useful for authoritarian leaders.

Think of Iran, Israel, Saudi.

And he points to these authoritarian leaders who, when they have a crisis or they have a crisis of approval or things are going badly, they turn not just to cyber wars or trade wars, which is what we're in already, but they turn to actual shooting wars.

You know, the nice, sober Catty Kay doesn't think we're going to get there, but to have somebody from the European Union suggest that we might do is in and of itself.

I mean, I think occasionally we have to just stop and remind ourselves of how extraordinary this moment is and how incredibly unusual this presidency is that you have an allied official saying, we are concerned, there is a concern, that this could lead to an actual physical shooting war.

Even if that never happens, it is in itself pretty remarkable, don't you think?

Let me ask you, is it a 0% chance?

No, I don't think it is a 0.

Okay, so you're an optimist.

I'm an optimist.

You can't say it's a 0% chance because

what's happening is you started a trade war.

And what we know from the history of war, things never go as planned, right?

Right?

It's like,

you know, what did the generals say?

We have our war plans, and then we have to immediately change them once we have contact with the enemy.

And so now things are happening around the world that people wouldn't predict.

Some of them are predictable.

But if you told me that we entered entered into a kinetic war over this for some reason, or if you're telling me now that he's got bombers set up, he's negotiating with Iran on Saturday, and if it doesn't go well, he's got bombers lined up and he's got a willing accomplice in the Defense Secretary to order those bombs to be dropped.

There is a chain of command in here that unless somebody's going to mutiny and bust the chain of command, you know, you're going to have bombs dropped.

That was what this EU official was referring to, that meeting with B.B.

Netanyahu, where he repeatedly talks about nuclear weapons and just brings up we cannot let the Iranians have nuclear weapons.

But it was the stress that he was putting on nukes in that setting, kind of uninvited, that was worrying to this EU official that you're right, you can't rule it out.

And I think the other thing that is interesting is that other countries aren't just thinking about the tariffs right now.

And that's why this is such a fascinating subject, because obviously there's the reaction to the tariffs and what is he doing and how do we play that and this we've spoken about it on the podcast before the kind of mistrust that there is now in the American trading system that okay well the tariffs could come off again but they could go back on again are we just in a protectionist era but it's bigger than the tariffs Anthony now there is a concern that the American system is not what people thought it was is not as robust as people thought it was because so much power has been consolidated in the hands of Donald Trump because of the fear we were speaking about, the fear from the universities, the fear amongst business leaders.

The business leaders is a big concern, the fear in the Republican Party, the fear even in areas of the media.

Does that erode the checks and balances, which were the foundation of the American system, that made the system strong?

And we're all looking at the courts to see if the rule of law upholds.

But

I don't know that you can say as confidently as you might have done even three months ago, or two months ago, or one month ago, that the American system is robust.

I mean, I hear you when you say the system will win, but I have to make the bet on the system because

I don't want to predict a war, okay?

I think what you're saying, though, is accurate.

I think we have to look at it historically.

We've seen patterns like this before, okay?

And unfortunately, most people don't recognize the patterns until it's too late.

And so, if you said to me, we were in a war hospital, and you and and I were war doctors and we were looking at historical patterns and we looked at the patients, we said, okay, wow, there's trends lines that are heading for a kinetic war.

And so

how do you diffuse it?

And I said on Monday, 11 people could stop this right now.

They could, they could caucus with the Democrats.

A couple of cabinet members could leave.

I think Elon Musk and interestingly enough, his brother Kimball have both registered their displeasure with what is going on.

Kimball, a little bit more aggressive than Elon, but I'm sure he did that with Elon's permission.

And so it's ironic, you have 11 people out of 340 million people that could stop this.

But I just want to point out to everybody listening, something is really wrong.

And I want to explain this to you through the 10-year treasury.

And just very simplistically, people understand this.

When markets have gone down in the past over the last 50 years, the yield on the 10-year U.S.

treasury has gone down, meaning there's a flight to safety into the U.S.

Treasury.

If you're an economist or a business leader, you got taught somewhere that the 10-year Treasury is the assumed risk-free rate of return, meaning the sovereign debt of the U.S.

will pay on this.

It's a dollar-denominated debt, so therefore the U.S.

will pay in dollars on this.

And so that's your risk-free rate that you're benchmarking your investments off of.

So this should have gone down.

If you said to me, Caddy, we're going to have a 10, 15% drop in the SP since January 1st, where would the 10-year be?

It would be at about 350.

The 10-year started at about 4%, 4% when the crisis started.

It's now 4%

36, so 4.36.

And so what's happening is the world is telling you that they're leaving the treasury.

The world is telling you, I'm sorry, we're now losing confidence in the U.S.

government and the leadership of the U.S.

government.

And I know for a fact, based on my sources on Wall Street, the Chinese are selling the treasury.

Other big nations, industrial nations, are selling the treasury.

Gold is up.

There's been a steady bid on things like Bitcoin, digital assets.

And if Trump is not careful, okay, he'll break the trust in the system.

Even if he fixes it and waves a magic wand and fixes it tomorrow, Caddy, people are going to be looking around and saying, okay, there's a bunch of imbeciles running the American government.

And it's not just, I mean, I saw that, that the Treasury yield is up 17% this morning, and a lot of people are worried about what that means about the American system and belief in the dollar, belief in the safety of the American government as a safe haven.

What does that mean politically for Donald Trump?

Is he looking at the fact that for the first time, Raz Mussman, which is a conservative polling outfit that does a daily tracker that, guys, I watch so you don't have to watch it, for the first time, Raz Mussman's daily tracker went below 50% approval for Donald Trump.

I know that people in the White House watch these things.

The question is: is:

where are the elites now?

You've got Bill Ackman with his great U-turn, Kimball Musk, Elon Musk.

Will there be an insurgency from the elites that supported Trump?

You know, David Sachs, who's working for him, I like David a lot.

He's his crypto czar.

He posted something ominously.

He said, well, the Black Monday myth was over.

Of course,

he picked the top of the market for that, Caddy.

Market dropped 6% after he said that.

Well, will these guys get the Jim Mattis,

General John Kelly,

H.R.

McMaster wake-up?

Meaning, will they come out of the yoke of Trumpism and say, okay, my God, I'm working for, or I was affiliated with, a mad person.

I now have to retract my statements and go in a different direction.

Or will their egos get the best of them?

And they won't be able to capitulate and accept levels of and try to equivocate levels of the insanity.

What do you think happens?

Look, I think we're kind of in a bit of a race against time

because

if those people are going to try and pull whatever levers of power they have

to reverse this course, they have to do it fairly soon before irrevocable damage is done to American farmers.

to American workers.

And it is the working class Americans who are going to suffer from this because prices are going to go up.

You have a risk to some to employment in some sectors.

This fantasy that America is suddenly going to start making sneakers and t-shirts and even

cars in the way that it used to is a fantasy.

Every economist that I have spoken to has told me it's a fantasy and that you're going to have working Americans who are hit and that's the damage that is going to be done.

On the flight out to Vegas, I was reading Tim Snyder, the historian who actually has just left America to go and live in Canada and teach at Toronto University, I was reading his little book on tyranny.

It's a good book.

I mean, I promise you, I am somebody who is level-headed and sober and generally optimistic about this.

And I do believe the system will, if I had to bet, I'm in Vegas, betting is the thing.

If I had to put all my chips somewhere, I would say the system holds.

But it's a good read.

It's a very small little book, but it's a smart look at how history of the 20th century and the rise of fascism and the rise of communism and these authoritarian regimes, how we should look at this moment in the context of what happened.

So I would recommend that for everybody to have a read and then hope that saner heads prevail and that the system does hold.

Can I test one more thing on you?

Go on.

Okay, I'm going to channel Donald Trump.

Will you do it with the voice?

Go on, do it with the voice.

I can only do it with the handset.

I can't imitate the guy's voice because who could imitate it?

You know, with the,

look at this everything computer.

you know, I mean, when he was in the Tesla, right?

Who could talk like that unless there's like some type of circuitry problem?

But let me just go over the Donald Trumpisms, ready?

We have been taken advantage of by the EU and other countries.

So therefore, I am putting out these tariffs to equalize things.

Now, the other countries are hitting us with more tariffs.

They're hitting us with retaliatory tariffs.

He's then going to say to his base, you see, they have really been taking advantage of us, and now they're trying to inflict more pain on us.

So there's going to be a segment of the American people who are not rational thinking about this, that are tied to Donald Trump, his base.

He could create even bigger anger in his base as a result of what's going on, as a result of the predictability of what's going on.

Aaron Powell, so that is the concern that I've heard from some members of Congress that when Americans start feeling the pain of what these policies could lead to, you will get civil disobedience and civil violence and retaliation in the street

and you'll get protests.

And at that point, does Donald Trump bring out the military?

And because he has a complicit now

Defense Secretary and a complicit Joint Chiefs of Staff, does the military do what Donald Trump wanted them to do in the first time, which is shoot at American citizens?

And I think that's the kind of scenario we have to keep watching.

And it's where you get from trade wars to kinetic wars, potentially, either within America or outside America.

This is all the worst case scenario, and I know that the White House, to put their case, would say, as Donald Trump has been saying, that this is a revolution that needs to happen in the American economy.

We need to bring back manufacturing and jobs and that Americans will fill factories again, even though there are a lot of economists.

And I know Gary Cohen in the first term presented Donald Trump with lots of data showing that actually American workers didn't want to work at furnaces and on factory floors.

That was not.

They were the ones leaving jobs with the people working in those kinds of conditions.

But Donald Trump believes this.

He just, as he said to Gary Cohen, I just believe this is the way to go.

And when Gary Cohen sent him the reporting is, well, why do you believe it?

And he said, I don't know.

I just believe this is what we need to do again.

And it is this old-fashioned view of America as the factory of the world for America.

Two more points, and I agree with everything that you just said.

Smooth Hawley, which were the trade tariffs that were put in place in the 1930s, which led to, I think, a...

you know, it was combustible.

You had a recession going that entered into a great global depression and obviously the rise of fascism around the world.

I just want to point out to people that the debt to GDP ratio was 16% in the United States.

It's 122%

today.

It's also the global debt to GDP.

If you took the aggregate debt in the society, it's 237%, Caddy Kaye.

I just want everybody to know how perilous this was.

If you were flying in the plane and looking at the economic dashboard on the control panel that I'm looking at, you would not want this.

You would want to be on the phone.

If you're Scott Besant, you'd want to be on the phone.

Now, Dom, our producer, said any billionaire back channeling.

Yeah, Besant is super upset.

He's talking to his friends on Wall Street, his former colleagues, and he's saying that Trump is unmanageable.

Okay, Scott, I could have given you that news flash show six months ago, okay?

And so he says he doesn't doesn't know what to do.

Welcome to the club.

Okay.

And now guys like Drucken Miller, his former colleague, and guys like Ken Langone are out there lambasting the tariffs

after the weekend.

So guys, this is a perilous moment.

The economic dashboard is blinking red.

I'm not saying that as a Wall Streeter.

I'm saying that as a citizen of the United States and a citizen of the world, that this will hurt everybody.

It's not, oh, Wall Street's going to get hurt and Main Street's going to benefit.

No, this is a melee situation where everybody's going to get meleeed.

Okay, we're going to leave it there.

The slot machines are waiting for me downstairs.

I've got to go and, you know, put it in the middle of the middle.

Alcohol, Caddy.

Alcohol.

It's eight in the morning.

A couple of margaritas.

We want the selfie with this salted margarita.

Okay.

Send it to us, please.

Yeah, fat chance.

Okay, thanks everybody for listening.

We will be back, of course, next week.

We'll be back on Monday as well with our live stream for founding members.

If you'd like to become a founding member and join us for those, that's super fun.

We get to take your questions in real time.

The rest is politicsus.com.

You can sign up there and tell your friends to come and join us too.

And thanks for listening, everybody.

Goodbye from Vegas.

Okay, guys, we'll see you next week.

Thank you again for listening.

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