434. Why the West is Finally Recognising Palestine

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Gaza is an emergency, immediate humanitarian horror.

Israel and Netanyahu's government has made it clear they no longer even say they believe in the two-state solution.

It is an extraordinary change.

It would have been almost inconceivable 12 months ago that all these countries would have recognised Palestine.

It's a sign of the focus on the starvation, which is becoming so brutal and so clear.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu is now talking about taking over the whole of Gaza.

It's a brutal, almost existential divide between how Israel sees itself and how the rest of the world sees Palestine.

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Welcome to The Rest is Politics.

I'm Alice Campbell.

And with me, Rory Stewart.

And Rory, welcome back from Colombia.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

And something to discuss maybe in tomorrow's podcast.

Yeah, we're going to do lots of Columbia in question time tomorrow, but I think this week a lot happening in Gaza, Israel.

We should focus on that, not least.

I don't think we've done an episode since the whole recognition issue, France, Canada, UK, etc.

And then also, I think we should revisit tariffs.

I mean, God knows what you're thinking if you're Brazilian, Swiss, Canadian, Indian, Lesothan.

But first of all, Rory, I, when I was at school, I was very, very good at languages and very, very good at maths.

Were you very good at maths?

I was quite good at maths, yeah.

I was sort of 98% in my O-level mock.

But then had to make a choice.

Do I go down the maths route or the languages route?

And I went down the languages route.

But my maths knowledge is being severely, profoundly tested by Donald Trump.

Keep saying that he's cut drug prices by 1500%.

And I want to know if...

Can you explain that?

Yeah, well, I guess if someone said they were cutting something by 300%, they'd mean that it was down to a third.

So I guess if

it's down to 1,500%, I guess, yeah, off the top of my head, maybe he says they're now 4% or 5% what they were.

If they were a pound, they're now four or five pence.

But surely it means that he's now paying us to take the drugs.

Yeah, I agree.

It's testing me.

And it's presumably not true.

His other great one, which we I think have touched on in the past, is this amazing two-week thing.

Everything's always going to happen in two weeks.

Yeah.

We're going to have a great deal in two weeks.

In two weeks' time, we're going to have this.

It's going to be sorted in two weeks.

I think he'd reduced it to 10 to 12 days for the ultimatum to put in, during which he and Medvedev have indulged in this sort of really childish tit-fit-tat on social media, which then involved Trump claiming he was moving nuclear submarines.

Anyway, let's put him to one side until part two and let's talk about Gaza.

What have you made of the whole recognition?

So I think the first thing is that it is an extraordinary change.

It now looks as though by the UN General Assembly, the likelihood is that three of the countries out of the G7, Canada, France and the UK, and two members of the permanent members of the Security Council, in addition to Russia and China, so it'll be four out of five members of the Security Council, will have recognised Palestine as a state.

There's a big thing we can get into about whether it's been done in the right way, whether it should have been made conditional on Gaza and Israel in this way.

But there's no doubt, I think, that this is the product of Israel's actions actions in Gaza.

It would have been almost inconceivable 12 months ago that all these countries, and it began obviously with Spain and Norway doing it in November, would have recognized.

And in particular, it's a sign of the focus on the starvation, which is becoming so brutal and so clear.

Yeah, just on that, I mean, just to give some facts on the starvation, we're recording this Tuesday morning.

More people died of starvation in the last 11 days than in the previous 21 months.

And When you were away and I was talking to Katie Kay about this, we had an input from this guy who's who

used to run starvation, anti-starvation projects for USAID.

And we're explaining once it starts, even if you get food in, it is very difficult to stop.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military killed just short of 100 Palestinians, including 56 on the way to try to get aid in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the Jerusalem Post, is now now talking about taking over the whole of Gaza.

Meanwhile, Ben Gavir, in breach of his own government's policy, went to pray with Jews at one of the sacred mosques.

Taking, I think, 4,000 people.

With 4,000 settlers.

I think this is all built up to a sense of...

public opinion in the democracies that you talked about, UK, France and Canada.

Public opinion really demanding

change in stance, change in attitude.

You made a very interesting point about whether we could argue about whether it was done in the right way.

So Macron, I think, clearly wanted to be out front because that's where Macron likes to be.

I thought there was a very odd line in his approach, essentially saying that he talked about this would have to be a demilitarized Palestinian state.

Well, that's quite a big thing to say.

It's one thing to say Hamas should have no rule in the governance of Gaza, which they're all saying, but demilitarized basically means, you know, you can't have armed forces.

And then with Kierstalma's recognition, there was a lot of debate about this because I think a lot of people think, yes, two-state solutions, so let's recognize, as it were, both of the states.

And we can get on to the Montevideo definition of what a state is.

The issue with Kierstama's recognition was essentially

he was applying conditions of recognition that applied to Israel.

In other words, we won't recognize if Israel does ABCD.

Whereas I wonder whether it might have been sensible to say, you know, the context is the war.

We condemn the way that Israel is conducting that war.

We will recognize Palestine provided that Palestine does ABC.

I think that's a different way of doing it.

And in Canada, poor old Canada, I know we're going to talk about tarots later.

Mark Carley comes out and does it.

And immediately Trump makes it part of his trade war.

A couple of questions on Stalma.

One is I think it would have been incredibly powerful if Macron and Stalma had made a joint statement with the same policy at the same time.

Yep.

Because Britain and France are the two two authors of the Sykes-Pico Agreement, which is right at the heart of the problems in the Middle East.

They are the two permanent members of the Security Council.

I think that was a really missed opportunity to, as a way of partly demonstrating what you and I care about a lot, which is thinking about how there's a joint European voice on defense and security.

But just internationally, I think it would have been

to do some Trump maths, maybe three times as powerful to have the two together

than having them separately.

Any thoughts on that?

No, I agree with that.

In fact, fair enough, I was pinging texts to sources close to the Prime Minister and the French President at various points, not least around the summit that we had, saying, look, this recognition issue is clearly kind of in the ether.

Wouldn't it be really, really powerful to do it together?

I think that there were probably issues around

would they, could they, would they say exactly the same things?

I think they could have ironed those out.

I know that Jonathan Powell, and you know, Jonathan, as you know, I've got huge admiration for Jonathan, and he's a real sort of expert in peace processes as well.

I think he felt that

this should be part of a bigger thing.

And maybe what they were doing was they thought, well, Macron's going to go out on front because that's what Macron does.

Let's see if we can sort of build in a sense of momentum.

Then Canada comes in, etc.

But I agree with you.

I think that would have been powerful.

And of course, on the one hand, we said, again, talking to Catty, I made the point that Trump and Netanyahu sort of engineered this situation.

so it's like theirs are the only voices that count whereas I think if the European voices come together I think there's an acceptance that Merz Germany are not going to be in this position they're in a different position and they're gonna probably gonna stay there but I think the power of the international voice I agree with you I think I think it would have been more effective and now of course we get to September there's no way that Netanyahu is going to abide by these conditions he's made that absolutely clear au contraire patchet the Jerusalem Post they're going and and Ben Guevir as well I I mean, Ben Gavir is an incredible thing.

That's kind of like impunity within impunity.

We've talked about Israel, the government operating with impunity in Gaza, or seeming to.

Now we have Ben Gavir within his own government operating with impunity.

That's an interesting one, isn't it?

Just on Ben Gavir, because often when we are getting emails attacking what we're saying, one of the claims is, well, Ben Gavir doesn't really speak for the government.

But I think that makes no sense at all.

I mean, partly it is that Smartric and and Bank are able given these key posts of finance minister and security minister.

But also clearly, as you say, it's not just that they are part of the cabinet, it's that it appears that they can do whatever they want.

Nothing they do gets any criticism, presumably because they could topple the government at any moment.

Just a little overview again, because I was trying to get my head around this, about this question of recognition and why it didn't happen earlier.

So there's a strange story.

Up until 1967, there wasn't really a Palestinian state to recognize in the sense that Egypt had taken Gaza and Jordan had taken the West Bank.

They were part of other countries.

After 67, when Israel occupied that territory, and particularly from about 1980 onwards, there was increasing moves pushed by Yasser Arafat to try to get people to focus.

And I think by about 1988, you had this particularly not just Arab governments, but you had Eastern Bloc governments, former communist, or the then-communist countries recognizing Palestine, which is why quite a lot of Eastern European countries in the European Union today recognize Palestine.

They haven't had to do it recently.

I think Poland, for example, recognized it back in 88, and that's when Russia recognized it, etc.

But the real story, I think, began to change most dramatically after Oslo, because of course with Oslo, this Norwegian agreement, the world signed up to a two-state solution.

And once you get a...

an idea of a two-state solution, the logic is, well, why are you not recognizing a Palestinian state if you believe in a two-state solution?

And there was this mealy-mouthed excuse, which is, no, we need to hold it back for part of the negotiations.

Somehow, the idea was that conferring statehood would be the last stage of this complicated peace deal.

But in reality, it was because Israel would have been very angry if people had recognized it.

And so people held off.

There was a big push again with Abu Mazen, I think sort of 99, 2000.

And we ended up with a situation where

before October the 7th, nearly three-quarters of the countries in the world recognized Palestine as the state.

But the major Western European G7,

G20 countries generally didn't.

And then we had two little bits, didn't we?

We had, we just interviewed the Norwegian Prime Minister, which I think people will love because he was incredibly good, I thought, on Gaza, very strong, very clear.

So we had...

Spain and Norway, and now we're going to the second phase.

Rory, why do you keep forgetting Ireland and Slovenia?

They were part of the same move.

The four who did did it together, the four who did it together were Spain, Norway, Ireland and Slovenia.

So on that story, I mean, do you have memories of this over, I mean, what is your sense of what's been going on since the 90s with this recognition of statehood?

Was it a big issue when you were in government?

Given that we acknowledged a two-state solution, why were we not recognising a Palestinian state for the last 30 years?

I think you're right, because people assumed that what would emerge out of Oslo was the process, the progress towards a two-state solution.

The state of Israel was already in existence.

Palestine was recognized by some, but not by all.

And in a sense, it would become part of that process.

And what I think people are seeing is that Israel and Netanyahu's government has made it clear they no longer even say they believe.

in the two-state solution.

So I think that's what's changed the dynamics around it.

And also there is this sort of never-ending debate about what represents a state.

So I mentioned the Montevideo Convention, and this dates back to 1933.

And there are four key criteria for a new state to be recognised.

One is defined boundaries.

Well, you know, the whole settler thing has confused that.

A permanent population, a government, and the capacity to enter into international relations.

Now, you could argue that Palestine has got bits of all four.

although the level you know the level of Israeli intervention into the West Bank and the current situation in in Gaza makes government very, very difficult.

But just to say, for example, you know, sometimes you might get in a quiz, in a pub quiz, how many countries in the world are there?

And there's actually no agreement on that.

The United States says there are 197.

Others say there are 200 and even more than 200.

The United Nations has it 193.

And at the Second World War, when the United Nations was formed, there were 51, 99 by 1960, and 189 by 2000.

So, and you know, we interviewed recently, just two of the interviews we did, Albin Kurty, the Prime Minister of Kosovo.

Well, Kosovo is recognized by a lot of countries, but not by enough to get it accepted as a state.

We interviewed the president of Cyprus.

Now, right next to them, they have what the Turks call the Turkish Republic of Gaul Cyprus.

They're the only people who recognize it.

What was the last country that was recognized?

Was it South Sudan?

Was that the last?

Yeah, South Sudan

was definitely the last one that I remember.

And that was extraordinary because, again, Sudan was a big contiguous territory.

And this amazing combination of counter-terrorist people in the U.S.,

Christian churches, because South Sudan is predominantly Christian, and George Clooney, so sort of Hollywood churches and counter-terrorist people, put pressure on the U.S.

government.

We're now in sort of 2005 and recognized this whole new country.

And it was part of that.

moment that we often talk about of extraordinary optimism.

And the international community moved there and Juba became full of foreigners and Lebanese restaurants and discos and then collapsed into civil war.

And again and again, as you're aware, with a lot of these conflicts around the world, there are always people suggesting maybe the answer is partition.

You remember in Iraq, people would say, well, maybe

things will be easier if we partition Syria.

Obviously, the Druze and the Kurds, to some extent, are still trying to push for creating semi-independent nations, splitting these countries up.

And of course, we just interviewed Nicola Sturgeon.

Rory, you're plugging all these interviews.

So we should just sort of maybe let people know we've got Jeremy Hunt, and we're going to talk about him later.

We've got Jeremy Hunt two episodes.

We've got Nicola Sturgeon two episodes.

Then we've got the Norwegian Prime Minister.

And I'm really glad you liked Jonas Garstora because I think he's a very, very impressive guy.

And he was, you know, people will hear it, we put it out.

I thought he was brilliant on Palestine because he was coming at it the whole time from the position of the Oslo Accords.

And okay, Norway obviously has a sort of a sense of attachment to that.

But that was the closest we got to the sense of that process being there.

And what he's refusing to do is to depart from the principles underpinning that.

And, you know, when we talk about Colombia tomorrow, I think, you know, Santos, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in bringing the civil war in Colombia to an end, was always talking about the framework.

You have to get the framework right.

Otherwise, you get chaos.

I also thought, by the way, on the way of recognition roy the other the other thing that i don't think got nearly as much attention as i thought it deserved was when the foreign ministers met recently um mainly the foreign ministers some heads of government as well but david lammy was there for the uk and they met in new york and had this meeting about recognition one of the most important things i think was the fact that the arab league signed up to something that was a very, very, very clear recognition of Israel, which has been, you know, a complicated political, diplomatic process too.

Huge big move, exactly, because people are very aware, because we often hear that Iran refuses to acknowledge the existence of the state of Israel.

But that was absolutely true, as you say, of most Arab countries.

Many of them still don't have full diplomatic relations with Israel.

And I think countries like Indonesia traditionally didn't recognize Israel.

Many other Muslim

countries.

So I think that that's a huge thing.

Just to underline that, Rory.

So the statement that they agreed condemned the activities of what they call militant group savage attacks.

We know what that means, October 7.

And also they

linked the peace deal

of the future with the disarming and disbandment of Hamas.

And that included Turkey, it included Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia from the Asian side.

There were African countries, Latin American countries, Europe, obviously.

So I thought that was a pretty big deal.

The challenge we now face, of course, is that the overwhelming majority of Israelis, I think this is right, now reject the two-state solution.

It's not just Benimin Nitinah.

I think there are two different views on this.

There's the extremist Ben-Gavir

view, which is that the whole of

Israel and Judea belongs to us because the Bible says so.

And we're simply going to

factfully, for the sum of the extremist motra, which talks openly in terms that sound like ethnic cleansing, let's just push out all non-compliant Palestinians and just create a massive Israeli state over all the Palestinian territory.

The more mainstream opinion, I think, is not that they're making a great claim on the Bible.

Traditionally, these might have been people who'd be prepared to compromise on some of the history, but who simply believe that

any time they leave territory, leave South Lebanon, leave Gaza, they end up with terrorists, a terrorist state on their borders.

And therefore, they,

particularly after October 7th, can't contemplate the idea of a Palestinian state because they believe a Palestinian state is simply a guarantee that you get a Hamas or a proto-Hamas.

So we know, and that's just a long way of saying, we're now in a position where three-quarters of the countries of the world, and now Britain, France, and Canada, have signed up to something that is offensive to the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population.

So, there's now a

this is not the 90s anymore.

There's now a, and it's feeling more and more like a brutal, almost existential divide between how Israel sees itself and how the rest of the world

sees Palestine.

Yeah, I guess the other thing we should recall is that over

last weekend, Israel released another video that was filmed by Hamas

of one of the hostages emaciated, digging his own grave.

So that is, for obvious reasons, what drives a lot of the anger and the hatred within Israel.

But I think

where I'm not sure I completely agree with you, I think there is

a fairly unmovable

and pretty sizable chunk of Israeli public opinion that really does think Netya, who's been exploiting this at various points for his own survival, hasn't actually seized those opportunities when he maybe could have got more of the hostages back.

And I think when the reckoning is told on this whole episode, then

look, who are we to say what history judges?

But I think it's not impossible to imagine that Israel itself and the actions of this current government, particularly the extremists that we've talked about, have inflicted as much damage upon the standing of the state of Israel as any of our side forces.

Well, we've had this shift and we've got quite an important shift, which is two Israeli human rights groups, well-respected Israeli human rights groups now saying that what's happening in Gaza is genocide.

Ehud Olmert, who we interviewed, the former Prime Minister of Israel, being one more outspoken, there was a brilliant interview done by the Guardian podcast with a surgeon called Nick Maynard,

who'd just come back from Gaza.

And

for people who don't want to hear, and I I think a lot of people don't want to hear about what's happening in Gaza, or who hear Netanyahu saying, Netanyahu said it's a bald-faced lie that there's starvation in Gaza,

Nick Maynard just, I think it's the small details that are so telling.

He says that he was working with American doctors who'd heard that there was a shortage of infant formula.

So they'd flown from the US with their suitcases packed full of infant formula.

And every last packet of infant formula was confiscated from them by the Israeli military at the border, just weren't allowed to bring in baby formula.

Or what it's like working as a surgeon

with Palestinians whose all their children have been killed, their wife's been killed, who have to leave the surgery because suddenly their sister's been killed

in a strike and then return to scrub up again to do the thing.

And your point, which you did very powerfully with Kedike last week, which is the way in which malnutrition makes all the other medical problems far worse.

This compounding issue.

So

Nick Maynard's an esophageal surgeon, and he was describing a great detail reconstructive surgery he'd done on an 11-year-old girl who'd been struck by a bomb and how he was pretty confident she would have pulled through.

But of course, the malnutrition means that it's much more difficult for people to recover from surgery, secondary infections.

The other thing, maybe, before we go to your break, I'd like to plug is,

because, you know, in this modern age of TikTok and all the rest of it, and, you know, the Israelis, in their own way, are very powerful communicators.

I think their communications has been a bit of a disaster because

they're so kind of aggressive and denialist and so forth.

But

they're very effective historically as communicators.

But you have to be kind of snappy.

And one of the most impressive things I saw was a three-minute thing on social media from Mehdi Hassan, who, you know, coming very much from a sort of anti-Israel perspective on one level,

but he was just debunking some of the lies that they tell.

And that's where I think they're doing themselves a lot of damage.

And because they know that Trump lies a lot, Trump, we're going to talk about this in the second half.

He's, I think he's kind of sui generis in a way.

There's nobody else like him.

People may think they can operate like him, but I don't think it's nearly as

he gets away with more than other countries do.

he gets away with more than other leaders do i wish he didn't but he does and so i i think the israeli really i've said this many many times before that i know they don't listen and i and i mean david menzra stopped even replying to i i thought we might try and get the president on on october the 7th for example to talk about you know to reflective look back on on the whole thing but he's not even replied to that but i i think their communications is um a bit of a disaster for them yeah well i just to wrap it up i suppose those two things connect, don't they?

Because

it's clear that this recognition of Palestinian statehood is driven by what Israel has been doing in Gaza.

But I think it's also worth returning to your first point, which is there's something that doesn't feel quite right in making recognition of statehood conditional on Israel's actions.

I mean, either Palestine's a state or it's not.

And actually, you could recognize Palestine as a state separate from Gaza, because Gaza is an emergency, immediate humanitarian horror that should be pursued through international law, through international courts, normal approaches to international law, and shouldn't be muddled up with the question of statehood.

And I think there were some missed opportunities along the way.

I think it would have been very, very nice to see this done as a big joint diplomatic statement.

However, probably in the long run, it shows things strategically shifting against Israel and global opinion.

Let's take a break and come back and talk about tariffs, Trump, and some very interesting advice that Jeremy Hunt has for Keir Starboard.

Very good.

See you after the break.

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Welcome back to The Restless Politics with me, Rory Stewart.

And me, Aztec Campbell.

And Rory, before we get on to the substance, you kept dropping, dropping information about different interviews that we've been doing while we've been in different places.

So just to bring people absolutely up to date, Leading is a separate podcast channel that we Rory and I do where we interview somebody every week.

We've mentioned Jeremy Hunt and the current episode out now is Jeremy Hunt.

Part two of that interview is out this coming Monday.

But if you can't wait, you can become a member of the Restis Politics Plus.

And you do that by going to therestispolitics.com.

So we go Hunt, Hunt, Nicolas Sturgeon, Nicolas Thurgeon, then the Prime Minister of Norway, my friend Jonas Gastora, and then we might have a little bonus episode with the President of Guyana as well.

So we're getting loads and loads of really great interviews, and we hope that you enjoy them.

I mean I think Asta,

a huge thank you actually for getting some of these big names.

They're great A-listers and I think it's lovely to have current heads of state and current heads of state who are talking much more openly than I sometimes fear serving politicians do.

Yeah.

I think that King Harold might be upset that you just refer to Jonas Gastor as the head of state or you as a sort of out and out monarchist.

But there we are.

I'm going to say as well,

I I enjoyed Jeremy Hunt a lot more than I thought I would.

I thought he was, and it goes, he's still a politician, he's still an MP, but it does, I think, go to your theory.

He's no longer in the cabinet.

He was very loyal to Kemi Badenock up to a point,

but he was very much more reflective than most

frontline politicians are.

So I think he's got that balance right.

Still in politics, but being interested.

And of course, for me, I think it's a real example of what the Conservatives could be doing.

And it's so sad they're not.

I think there is a huge appetite still for the centre,

for the left wing of the Conservative Party, for a Conservative Party that doesn't get caught up in culture wars, that

emphasises

pragmatism.

thoughtful approach to stuff, is open about mistakes and failures.

And I think there's huge opportunities, actually,

if the Conservatives wanted to, for taking on Labour, because I think there are real communications problems.

Keir Starmer's net popularity rating is catastrophic.

And a good Conservative Party speaking in the way that Jeremy Hunt was speaking, I think could have a real future.

And I think it's very, very sad that where they're likely to go is with is to lurch towards Robert Generich and an attempt to chase Farage on the right.

Yeah.

The point I wanted to highlight from Jeremy Huntson's interview, because he said something really interesting.

When he said it, I thought, thought this is nuts.

But he basically said Keir Starmer should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's book and communicate more, talk more to the public.

Now, I said earlier, I don't think there's anybody in the world like Trump and the way he, you know, those 75-minute rambles he did at Turnbury.

And, you know, he communicates four or five times a day.

And there's something about Keir's communication style anyway, which maybe doesn't lend itself to the same sort of communication.

But the more I've thought about it, the more I think, you know what, he might have a point.

We don't see enough of the Labour government talking about what the Labour government is doing other than when they're on the defensive.

Yeah, I think that's right.

And I think

definitely this is part of the trick of Zoran Mamdani, the New York Merrill candidate, too.

And it was actually something that even back in the day, David Cameron did a lot more of.

If you remember as Foreign Secretary, there were often videos of him going down the steps or when he was running to be Prime Minister, he'd have people on the train with him chatting and doing also when when when david cameron was prime minister i would reckon david cameron was on the main news bulletins pretty much every day of his premiership not far off it absolutely i remember that i exactly remember i remember someone observing that somebody who really didn't like cameron saying okay i mean there's a lot of things wrong with this guy but one thing you can say for him is that you basically turn on the main news every evening and there is david cameron whereas right now you turn on the main main news and you've got Nigel Farage sort of trying to stir up hatred and violence.

And obviously you'd have to find a way of doing it, wouldn't you?

Where

to

follow your friend the Norwegian Prime Minister who's very much about authenticity and being yourself, it would have to very much be

Starmer being Starma.

But

yeah, it would be lovely to see.

The question is, could he do it?

Because what, of course, Mamdani and Trump are able to do is respond very, very fluently without too much nervousness to whatever's going on in the world.

They're partly being commentators.

Something that, you know, traditionally, Linton Crosby, I remember saying to us, the Australian election advisor, the Conservatives, used to always say, don't be a commentator.

You know, your job isn't to be a commentator.

Your job is to repeat the government line.

Well, that's, do you remember when we interviewed Ed Miliband?

He said, that's what I used to say to him.

Stop being a commentator.

Don't commentate.

Well, maybe Crosby probably nicks it from you.

Anyway, but Trump and Mamdani, and these people have to slightly be commentators.

They have to be a little bit more like that.

Because if they're going to be talking two, three times a day, a lot of the time they're just speculating, reacting, holding forth.

I mean, Trump presumably does quite a lot of stuff, which isn't really much to do with global politics at all.

It's not at all.

Not at all.

He was talking to speaking about some woman who makes jeans and

he confused a country with a company in one of his sort of mad rambles.

He talks about golf a lot.

I think the,

look, it is not Keir's style.

And also, something I'd say about Keir is I think sometimes the way he projects himself in public isn't the same as he speaks in private.

And I think when people see the interview, for example, with Jonas Garstora, the Prime Minister of Norway,

His speaking style is almost identical, regardless of what he's doing.

And I do think that's the most effective form of communication.

Yes, when you get up on a platform and a rally in front of 5,000 people, you do a bit more of the kind of boom and boom and boom.

But actually, it should be a recognisable form of communication to how you talk to your mates.

It's one of the great tricks of modern politics which isn't quite being met by most people.

Because we see it, don't we?

When we interviewed Saja Javid, people were like, my goodness, have only been like that when he was cabinet minister.

And people, I think, will feel that when they watch the Nicholas Sturgeon interview.

My goodness, if only, you know, people like me, if only she'd been quite as open and reflective and thoughtful.

So somehow it's just, and I feel that with Kiosama.

When I meet him one-on-one, there's actually quite a lot of kind of charisma and energy and humor to him, which isn't coming across in his.

So it's about getting very, very controlled, cautious, slightly more introverted politicians to learn to speak in public a little bit more, like the way they speak in private.

And I don't know how you get them to do that.

Yeah, well, I think a lot of it comes with practice and just doing it.

I mean, the one thing I'll say about Keir Starmer, I think he's got a lot better at Prime Minister's questions than when he started, which shows that he can improve and does improve.

And I think on this communications point, I mean, again, you know, Nicola Sturgeon made the point.

that she said, you know, not just Keir, but a lot of the labor ministers, when they come on, they speak.

And then when they finish speaking, you think, what did they say?

Because there's just something a little bit robotic about it all.

Well, also from your point of view, and I think the other thing that, of course, makes people nervous is that talking that way, you're going to take risk.

If you're going to be talking two, three times a day about whatever, things will go wrong.

Headlines will be generated.

And so you need

politicians.

who are a little bit more like I guess Trump or Mamdani or Farage are are, who when their comms team come in and say, what the F have you done?

You've just generated another mad headline.

Just shrug and say, don't worry, I know my people.

I know.

I actually think Farage's communications is, I'm not sure he's as effective right now as he thinks he is.

I know they're doing well because they're getting this whole sort of focus on migrant hotels and that's where he wants it, and crime or what have you, but I think the thin skin is getting to be a bit of a problem with them.

The more I've thought about what Jeremy Hunt said though, I hope the Labour people, I hope Labour people listen to it and listen to it not thinking, oh, he's a Tory, what does he know?

I actually think there's something in this.

Labour's communications needs to change from what it currently is.

Because, you know, even I, as a political obsessive, quite often, if I'm sort of going scrolling through social media looking for interesting things,

I'm not hanging around long when I see most of the labor ministers pop up on my feed.

And I am an obsessive pro-labour tribalist in politics.

So there we are.

Listen, let's get to a man who definitely can communicate in an interesting

unique way.

And that's Donald Trump.

And you talk about flood the zone.

So just to go through the last few days, we've had this massive spat with Medvedev that quickly accelerated to moving nuclear weapons.

We've had the tariff mayhem.

We've had him sacking.

And this is real Putin stuff now, North Korean stuff.

Sacking the head of the government statistical service,

wonderful name Erica McIntartha I mean she's got to get a job just for having that name so I hope she won't be out of work for too long another Fox News host getting a big job the new US attorney we've also had maybe we should have covered this in part one the $60 million

that he wanted thanks for from the starving in Gaza turns out it was only three million but he has found 200 he is finding 200 million to buy to to build a new ballroom ballroom.

Meanwhile, Ghillene Maxwell is being moved to a low-security prison.

Oh, just after the Deputy Attorney General went to have a chat about Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump.

Interesting.

And to add to it, Columbia University has signed a very, very controversial deal where they've, you remember their federal funds were suspended by Trump.

He's now releasing money to Columbia University in return essentially for Columbia signing up to to what Colombian, as an academic at Columbia University, effectively means that when he teaches his Middle East course, he can criticize pretty much every country in the Middle East,

but he cannot make points about Israel.

He doesn't feel he'd be able to.

And there's an extraordinary sort of

academic policing outfit that has been agreed as part of this deal

to monitor.

courses, provosts, etc.

Just on tariffs, though, I mean, the thing that caught my attention, particularly because I'd been in Latin America, was what's happening in Brazil.

But as you've pointed out, there's much more than that.

But let's just start with Brazil as an example of what's going on.

Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil.

Now, we're so deep into this Trump world.

It's only August, that 50% tariffs doesn't startle people anymore.

But it's an incredible level.

I mean, these are levels,

this is essentially economic sanctions.

This is the sort of thing that people used to do against Russia or South Africa, and he's doing it against Brazil.

And why is he doing it against Brazil?

He's doing it against Brazil not because Brazil has a

trade surplus with the United States.

He's doing it against Brazil because Brazil and its Supreme Court justice are prosecuting Herr Bolsonaro, the previous president, who did his own mini January the 6th.

So they're pursuing him for essentially insurrection and a coup.

Bolsonaro's son has been hanging out in DC, presumably going to the new members-only club set up by Trump's kids and Witkoff's kids, and has somehow convinced the Trump family that they need to get his dad out of jail.

So 50% tariffs are now sanctions against the Brazilian Supreme Court justice

and travel bans.

And Lula, who's a leftist

leader, now has his own cap, which looks like a sort of pseudo-maga cap,

asserting Brazilian independence.

But he's in a very, very difficult situation.

Same situation Canada's in, Mexico's in.

We'll get on to Colombia tomorrow.

How on earth do you keep a sense of national sovereignty, national pride?

You can't say, listen, it's fine, interfere in my judicial processes.

We'll sack the head of the Supreme Court.

We'll drop the entire legal processes of Brazil.

Please, dear America, drop the 50% tariffs.

Anyway, over to you.

No, it's quite incredible.

And it's a sort of form of strategic mayhem, the whole thing.

I mean, the other two that really I found fascinating, one was the first was India, because Trump has always talked about this great relationship with Modi, and Modi has always talked about this great relationship with Trump.

And whenever they visit each other's countries, they have these 80,000 people rallies in massive cricket stadium, tell each other posters of each other all over the place.

But India's been very badly here.

But the one that really shocked me was Switzerland.

So there's Switzerland.

And we talked earlier about what is a country.

Switzerland didn't become a member of the United Nations till very late on because it's always

preciously guarded its sense of neutrality.

But the president, Karen Keller Sutter, she did something very, very clever, I thought at the time, and she thought at the time.

The talks between America and China, she organised for them to be held in Geneva.

And at the time, she managed to get a meeting with Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary.

She came out of that meeting and did interviews for the Swiss media, where she basically, and this must have been based upon something that Besant said to her, basically said that they were going to be hovering between the UK 10% and the standard 15%, down from the 31% that Trump had announced on Liberation Day with his game show board.

He comes out a few days ago, 39%.

So it's gone up.

Gone up from his game show.

Gone beyond 31.

They've gone to 39.

And this has led to an emergency cabinet meeting.

It's led to furlough schemes for some sectors of the economy that are going to be particularly hard hit.

And the other thing that's really got them scratching their heads, because Trump, of course, says it's all about the size of the trade deficit, Switzerland says two-thirds of their recent exports are gold bullion.

and bars that have been refined in Switzerland.

And gold is supposed to be exempt from tariffs.

so this is, they just don't know what to do.

The India thing is, as you say, a similar story because I remember when this was all beginning in January, people I knew who were very close to the Modi government saying India is very convinced that they're going to be front row.

In fact, they were hoping they'd be the first to get a deal and were a bit disappointed that Britain got there ahead of them.

And Modi was very much communicating for all the reasons that you said that India is going to be in a very special position.

And of course, part of the reason for that is not just their friendship.

friendship, it was about China.

So the story was basically that the US needed allies against China, geopolitical competition, and the biggest potential ally in Asia was India.

You know, India is on track to become one of the very largest economies in the world.

It's growing very fast, population of over a billion.

And many companies were being encouraged to relocate their manufacturing away from China to India.

So Apple, for example, you know, move its manufacturing from China to to India.

So India thought it was sitting very pretty, that it had very cleverly positioned itself as the alternative to China, the big, rapidly growing investment location and the US's greatest ally in the region with its own navy, which could help.

So for all those reasons, both the personal connection and the geostrategic, they thought they'd be fine.

And they have been hit unbelievably hard.

Now, that means that if you are an international manufacturer trying to manufacture goods, you picked up that China wasn't going to work.

You were thinking, maybe I moved to India, maybe I moved to Vietnam, but all of them have now been hit with tariffs.

And this means that the basic goods that we're all dependent on, if you're an American consumer, everything from t-shirts to Apple, you're basically hit with a very, very high VAT.

It's like a sales tax.

So it would be like putting up VAT by 25%.

or in the case of China, you know, 40% on key products.

And this is bringing revenue in.

Trump's making a lot of money on this.

He may well make hundreds of billions of dollars off this.

But he's doing it by cutting taxes on the rich and then putting what's basically a VAT on the poor.

Yeah, absolutely.

And he's also squandering lots of goodwill.

I mean, say with Modi.

He spent so much time and effort building good relations with Modi and now comes along and does this.

And of course, the other thing that the Swiss are sort of really baffled about, because it's quite hard.

And, you know, Switzerland, they basically say they're already the world's sixth largest investor in the US.

They're the biggest per capita, right?

And there's even talk now, I mean, I can't see the Swiss doing this, but actually they've got a big order for F-35 fighter jets from the states.

Yep, that's right.

About saying, well, maybe we don't take their fighter jets.

But

so they have Switzerland, what have they done?

They've got the they've now got the highest tariffs in Europe.

And globally, there's only Brazil, Syria, Laos, and Myanmar that are higher than them.

Fiona and I are actually going to Switzerland in a couple of weeks, so we'll be able to check it out.

But I was reading one of their newspapers, Blick, and it said that this is the country's biggest defeat since the French victory in the Battle of Marignano in 1515.

What'd you do?

Come on, Roy, let's imagine you are the president of Switzerland.

What do you do?

Well,

it's impossible, isn't it?

Because

we know that one thing that Trump really likes and has worked for some countries is announcing a massive package of investment in the US.

So when Europe announced, I think it was $600 billion worth of investment, he cited that as a reason to bring the tariffs down to 15%.

Even though it's meaningless.

Even though it's meaningless, right.

But as you say, the problem for the Swiss is they've already got a huge amount of investment.

And of course, as we found with Norway,

when we were talking to the Norwegian Prime Minister, indeed when we talked to the Danish Prime Minister,

smaller countries in Europe like Switzerland, Denmark or Norway are very, very vulnerable to the US.

They're very open economies.

They're very much dependent on global trade.

And they're frankly very weak.

They don't have much leverage.

It's the first time I think that Switzerland has really experienced the pain of not being in the European Union Customs Union.

Because the trick that Trump didn't do that people were afraid he might do is to try to do divide and rule within Europe.

And I don't know how on earth Europe would have responded, but there was a fear for a moment that you remember that he might think, well, actually, you know, I don't really like what Spain's doing on recognition of Gaza.

We'll go after it.

Suddenly now, Switzerland, which seemed to have this very complicated but very fruitful relationship with the European Union, is in real trouble because it didn't manage to get in on that 15% tariff negotiation.

I don't know what you do.

And

God forbid you think that you can go down the Mark Rutter route, which is that if you just totally humiliate yourselves, say Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize, call him Daddy, call him Mr.

Bigley, wonderful president, you get out of this hole.

The other thing I think that's interesting is that we used to say in talking about Trump's tariff policies that there were four basic agendas which contradicted each other.

Number one, he wants to move manufacturing back to the US.

So leave China back to the US or leave Switzerland back to the US.

Number two, he's trying to make money, in which case the manufacturing stays outside the US and he makes the money as it comes in.

Number three, he's trying to chase fentanyl.

Number four, he's trying to punish China.

But it's clear, I think, now that it's quite different.

That, yes, he is going to continue to make revenue from it and he likes his 10% because it'll bring money in at the expense of poor Americans.

But it's now become a general purpose tool.

If you're doing stuff we don't like with Russia, which is the story with India, if you're prosecuting Bolsonaro, if in the case of Colombia, you're refusing to take people back on a plane, which is going to use this.

And Syria, I guess, I mean, presumably Syria doesn't have a big trade surplus with the US.

So those tariffs are just there, I don't know what, as leverage over the Syrian president.

They're sanctions, aren't they?

They're basically force of economic sanctions.

Having just lifted other sanctions.

And I mean, that's what I say.

It's kind of strategic mayhem.

Maybe just before we close, Rory, what did you think of the...

I mean, I was sort of maybe a bit too light-hearted about it because of her wonderful name, Erika McIntarfa.

But

what are we to think about the president of the United States, still the biggest economy in the world,

firing the head of the statistical service because he said she was coming up with phony job figures.

She inflated the good job figures for Kamala, bad job figures for him.

Everybody in that world, including people who have worked under Trump before, has come out and said this is ridiculous.

And then if you look through some of the history, the New York Times had a very interesting piece about the history of countries where they've tried to

fiddle basic statistics.

I mean, there's the old joke about the Soviet Union, the tractor production, the potato production, but Greece, they got into a real mess by faking their deficit numbers.

China constantly manipulating their growth figures.

And, you know, Argentina, I'd forgot about this until I read it.

Argentina in, you know, the early in this century, systematically understating inflation figures.

So eventually the international community just no longer bothered to read Argentinian government data.

So this is this is a bad, bad move, isn't it?

It's a very bad move.

And it's also, again, creating this strange sort of Bulgarian Communist Party thing, which is that all the Republicans loved citing her.

Yeah.

That she was their go-to person.

And now they've had to flip to say, oh, this person I was, you know, quoting endlessly two weeks ago is now a villain.

So there's a bit of the kind of sort of show trials going on.

We don't know, I think to finish on a sort of bigger note, one of the things you're reminding me of is that there's no real historical precedent

for an economy the size of the United States in a world this globalized doing these kinds of things.

Because the things that you're citing are Argentina or even China when it is a growing closed communist country.

But there's something we don't know what to deal with, which

and the Switzerland story is part of this story.

The US is so powerful, so big, so impossible to ignore, so entwined in the global economy, so powerful partly because actually they export much less than they import,

partly because they're the world's reserve currency.

We don't really know what happens with this experiment as it goes on.

Normal economics tells you all those things that you've said.

If you start screwing around with your tariff policy, you end up with expensive domestic goods, non-competitive domestic industries.

You're shredding all your international alliances because you're alienating not just Switzerland and Western Europe, you're alienating Japan, India, South Korea,

Canada, Mexico.

And then you start destroying your statistics agency.

You start going after your central bank.

So we've got J-PAL having to take a very firm line saying, I'm not going to be driven to bring down this.

So at some point, you assume that investors are going to say America is ceasing to be a reliable, predictable investment location.

But the global economy is in such trouble.

Where else do they put their money?

I mean, the U.S.

is now at 70% of the world's stock market.

If you go into a tracker fund,

and this is, and U.S.

Treasuries are where you put your money.

So

Trump is...

There's so much in the bank.

There's so much economic power that he can do these things that nobody else has ever done.

And we don't quite know how long he can get away with it from and at what point the catastrophe happens.

And the catastrophe is, of course, eventually people selling off U.S.

Treasuries.

Yeah.

Leaving the US stock market and giving up on this project.

Or that the American economy sort of declines and drags the world into some kind of, you know, some sort of recession.

And of course, don't forget, he's got a lot of form on this going back to his very, very first day as president, term one.

If you remember, the big row, day one of his first term, was him claiming there were more people at his inauguration than there had been at Obama's, when clearly there weren't.

So he's, you know, if if the facts don't fit his narrative, he changes the facts.

And I should say that, Broy, have you ever heard of a guy called Olympi Kovitkin?

No.

Olympi Kovitkin was a Soviet Union census director who made the mistake of producing a population count that was lower than Stalin had already announced.

And for his troubles, I'm afraid he was arrested and executed.

So we're not quite there yet, but we're some of the way there.

It's not great.

It's not great.

And of course,

it's a fascinating just final thing: that remember that what undid Liz Truss was her attempts to attack the Treasury, the Bank of England, and the analysis of the ignore our own statistical predictions and our own agencies.

But in a small economy like Britain, that was kind of the end for her.

But in America, as you say, this was exactly if Argentina had done it, the moment at which there's a massive

currency collapses, the stock market collapses, the debt goes crazy.

But in the US,

okay, well, let's see tomorrow.

We're going to talk about Colombia.

We're going to talk about a couple of aspects of France and Germany not going too well.

We're going to talk about changes at the Samaritans, which I know quite a lot of people are worried about.

So we'll see you then.

Very good.

And if I could, Alice, this is very cheeky, but I just wanted to plug.

Two days ago was the first episode of my BBC series, which is partly inspired by a conversation I had with you on the idea of the hero.

So it's a programme called The Idea of the Hero from Achilles to Zelensky.

It's at nine o'clock in the morning on BBC Radio 4 on a Monday.

If listeners want to listen, a jolly romp through different heroes from the classical world through to some painful discussions about Musk, Trump, and Zelensky at the end.

I think you should also probably mention BBC Sounds.

You know, don't go to the bottom of the sounds.

BBC Sounds, that's right.

They will go on there eventually.

They will go on there.

A little shout out, if I may, Roy.

We've just had, I know you don't really follow sport, the most exciting test match series,

probably in my lifetime, certainly since Ian Botham's ashes, I think.

England, India has been absolutely amazing.

And I want to give a shout out to Testmatch Special.

When you're riding around the French countryside on a bicycle, there is no better thing to listen to than Testmatch Special.

So, Aggers and Co., thank you so much.

Oh, beautiful.

Great.

All right.

Well, a happy note.

See you soon.

See you soon.

Bye-bye.