472. Is Trump’s Peace 'Plan’ Forced Surrender for Ukraine?

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Speaker 2 Welcome to an emergency episode of The Rest is Politics. You'll meet Alistair Campbell.

Speaker 3 And with me, Rory Stewart. And this is us focused on Ukraine.
You've been speaking to people who've been at the G20, where most of the leaders, except for Trump, have been.

Speaker 3 We're talking on a Sunday night when in Geneva at the moment,

Speaker 3 Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, and the Ukrainian delegation are meeting.

Speaker 3 But the reason we're talking, of course, is this plan, which was leaked, which seems to be the working draft put together by Steve Witkoff, who's Trump's main negotiator, with Kiril, who's doing the negotiating on behalf of the Russians, and which has produced some extraordinary results.

Speaker 3 Over to you.

Speaker 2 It depends what you mean by extraordinary, extraordinary reactions. I don't think there's been any result.
Yeah,

Speaker 2 I suppose apart from these meetings that are now going on in Geneva.

Speaker 2 I mean, this is a little bit of a rerun of the Gaza plan, but I think it's even worse in that we talked when Trump came up with his Gaza plan, and we should maybe point out that we're talking on a day that Israel has just been, has just taken out the chief of staff of Hezbollah in Lebanon, where more Palestinians were killed yesterday.

Speaker 2 So I think it's mythology to say that peace has been delivered there.

Speaker 2 But this one, next to no reference to the Ukrainians, some doubt even as to whether this might actually have been written by the Russians.

Speaker 2 There are American senators who've come out and said that Rubio told them that he had very little input into it. He's now denied that.

Speaker 2 But I think that, you know, if okay with you, Rory, I'd quite like to do what we did with the Gaza plan when it first came out, which is essentially to go through the whole thing.

Speaker 2 Because, I mean, it's 28 points. We don't need to do them all.
But I just think it... As we go through and see what Ukraine is being asked to take,

Speaker 2 I hope that most decent, reasonable people will think this is this is this is more than Trump just driving a bulldozer. This is basically saying, I'm sick to death of dealing with this.

Speaker 2 I'm sick to death of being told that I'm the only person who can sort it out. For God's sake, it's going to end, and here's the basis on which it ends.
So, shall we just have a quick run through?

Speaker 3 Yeah, brilliant. Let's maybe even chat a few of the points as you raise them.

Speaker 2 Absolutely. So, the point, point one,

Speaker 2 and you do sort of wonder why this even has to be said. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

Speaker 2 Whoever put it in doubt?

Speaker 2 And then I think you have to go after that, you have to go to point 21 of the 25-point plan, which relates to territories.

Speaker 2 Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States.

Speaker 2 Now, what the Americans can say is, well, the Russians aren't happy about that because they want de jure.

Speaker 2 They want to say this is theirs. But it does somewhat conflict with the idea that Ukraine Ukraine has sovereignty.

Speaker 3 Let's just come to that for a second and just expand on that a little bit, because

Speaker 3 the big news there is that contained within that is that Ukraine currently occupies bits of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Speaker 3 These were of course all Ukrainian territory before Russians' invasions in 2014 and 2022.

Speaker 3 Ukraine has been fighting very, very bravely, but at huge cost to hold those lines. And the Russians have been advancing, as people have pointed out, very, very slowly.

Speaker 3 Some people calculate it would take them years to conquer that territory. They don't currently conquer the western edge of that territory.
They currently don't occupy.

Speaker 3 So the first thing to note is that this plan is not just freezing the front lines where they are. It's giving Russia more than they currently have.

Speaker 3 And then there's an ambiguous phrase halfway through about international recognition, which even makes it a little bit unclear whether they're trying to sneak in something more than just de facto Russia controls this, because there's a toy about full international recognition for a buffer zone as Russian territory.

Speaker 2 Donald Trump has said

Speaker 2 they may have to give up on land they have not lost.

Speaker 2 So they're actually being asked to give up more than Russia has already taken. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it

Speaker 2 controls outside the five regions. Your point, Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk, God blast, that they currently control.

Speaker 2 This withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone. Russian forces will not enter.
Now here we are. Just listen to this one, Laurie.
This is point two. So that's one and 21.

Speaker 2 Point two, a comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
Now,

Speaker 2 I don't know if I'm the only person. When I hear a comprehensive non-aggression agreement,

Speaker 2 the names Molotov and Ribbentrop sort of flow somewhat into my head. This is when the Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact was made.

Speaker 3 And I think you're making a really good point here because I was talking to a good friend from the Baltic earlier today who said that fundamentally this is what the Soviet Union, the USSR, did to Finland.

Speaker 3 So effectively, they invaded Finland and then they created the situation where they took away Finland's sovereignty. And effectively that's what's happening here.

Speaker 3 The idea is that Ukraine wouldn't be fully sovereign. A fully sovereign country is a country which is free to have its own army, invite people in, create international treaties.

Speaker 3 This is essentially Finlandization. This is making Ukraine into a state that simply doesn't have the same sovereign rights that Russia would have.

Speaker 2 Okay, number three. It is expected.

Speaker 2 Interesting choice of word, that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.

Speaker 2 Now, first of all, it is expected, well, it was expected, not least by the United States intelligence services, that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine.

Speaker 2 NATO not expanding further, I assume that is them responding to Russia, your point about Finland, saying they weren't very happy about NATO expansion as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. But

Speaker 2 here's one that absolutely, and I was speaking to one of the leaders who's at the G20, who said this one really kind of got them absolutely,

Speaker 2 they just couldn't begin to believe what this meant. Number four, a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues.

Speaker 2 Now, NATO is the United States, and the United States is NATO.

Speaker 3 So the thing there that's so amazing, and this is part of something you often talk about, which is the way that Trump

Speaker 3 eventually, over time, does things so extreme that it begins to change all our expectations. One almost has to remind people of why that is so mad.

Speaker 3 And the reason it's so mad fundamentally is that

Speaker 3 NATO was created by the United States. The whole idea of this whole thing was NATO was lining up with its liberal democratic allies in Western Europe against Russia and the Soviet Union.

Speaker 3 So for the US to then pose as a sort of neutral mediator, hey, it's nothing to do with us, this is just between you guys,

Speaker 3 is the most extraordinary kind of revelation.

Speaker 2 Aaron Ross Powell, and that's why, in what's now becoming a European counter-proposal that's being put, one of the things they're saying is that Ukraine should be, when we get on to security guarantees, which is point five, so point five is Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

Speaker 2 There's no reference to American forces doing anything on that. It just says reliable security guarantees.

Speaker 2 So, what the European counter-proposal is saying is that that should include an Article 5 type relationship for Ukraine. No response from the Americans.

Speaker 2 Number six, the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, not just the army, the armed forces, will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

Speaker 2 Now, why are the Russians so insistent on lower levels of personnel if it is not that later down the road they'd like to take on a weaker

Speaker 3 armed forces?

Speaker 3 So this isn't a weird element of spin in the sort of micro-concessions. And you're completely right.

Speaker 3 The way to think about this is this is a repeat, basically, in many ways of what Trump did with Gaza, which is it's an attempt to create peace through giving almost everything to the stronger party.

Speaker 3 And the stronger party makes these sort of mini concessions. So the Russians would say 600,000 is still a lot of people.
It's more than we wanted.

Speaker 3 We wanted to limit the Ukrainian army to, let's say, 100,000 people. But the fundamental point is this.
I mean, you're limiting the sovereign ability of a country that's been invaded to defend itself.

Speaker 3 Yeah.

Speaker 2 And the point about the armed forces is that that includes Navy, Air Force. So the Army is currently, I think, about 880,000.

Speaker 2 The European counter-proposal, which is being discussed now, they're saying they would accept 800,000.

Speaker 2 But the point is, if you're a sovereign country, you can decide how much you want to spend on defence, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin has done.

Speaker 3 Furthermore, if you are a sovereign country which has actually been invaded in the last two and a half years,

Speaker 3 you need to be able to increase your forces and do what you want.

Speaker 3 Anyway, let's keep running because it gets worse and worse. Keep rolling through these points.
Right, number seven.

Speaker 2 Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO. And NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
So again,

Speaker 2 if it's a sovereign country, it has a sovereign choice about which defense partnerships to make.

Speaker 3 And if we're serious about security guarantees, and logically all of Europe is agreeing to security guarantees and the United States is agreeing to security guarantees.

Speaker 3 So if every NATO member wants to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine, isn't it basically in NATO anyway? So refusing to allow it to join NATO is essentially Trump signaling that the U.S.

Speaker 3 security guarantee will not be as firm as a normal Article 5 guarantee. Correct.

Speaker 2 And we'll get onto that when we get onto point 10. In fact,

Speaker 2 point 8,

Speaker 2 NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine. Well, it hasn't stopped Putin putting Russian troops into Ukraine.

Speaker 3 That's another very fundamental one. So if we think about a world in which increasingly the U.S.

Speaker 3 pulls its support out and in which the US says to Europe, Russia's your problem, you haven't been spending enough on defense, step up and deal with it.

Speaker 3 Well, the only way that you could actually provide a security guarantee to Ukraine is by putting troops in. And we talked about what that could be.
That could be brigades back.

Speaker 3 That could be brigades forward. That could be tripwires, that could be training.
But how can we possibly talk about providing security guarantees to Ukraine?

Speaker 3 This American story, Europe needs to step up. If Europe is now banned from putting troops in, what kind of security can it provide?

Speaker 2 Number nine, European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland. Well, that's fine.
Number 10.

Speaker 3 No, wait, wait, but let me hold on that too, because I think that the small print there is twofold.

Speaker 3 As my Baltic friend was pointing out, does this mean European fighter jets can be stationed in Poland but no further forward?

Speaker 3 And does it mean only European fighter jets, so you can't have fighter jets from the US and Poland? I mean,

Speaker 3 why is this thing here? I mean, we have fighter jets in Poland already. Exactly.
So what is this clause unless it's trying to restrict fighter jets?

Speaker 2 Well spotted. It's even worse than I thought.
Number 10, the US guarantee.

Speaker 2 Now, you have to remember, and this is, there was a very, very good editorial in the Financial Times yesterday, which said that this has laid bare the cynical, money-grabbing nature of Trump's approach to everything.

Speaker 2 The US will receive compensation for the guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.
If Russia invades Ukraine,

Speaker 2 in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, again, USA not mentioned, all global sanctions will be reinstated.

Speaker 2 Recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. And then get this one.
If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St.

Speaker 2 Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid. When have we ever heard of Ukraine whacking off a missile at Moscow or St.
Petersburg?

Speaker 3 Well, there have been allegations of drone attacks and things, but I agree with you.

Speaker 3 And remember also that the only threat that Russia faces there is that if it invades Ukraine, it returns to basically the position it's in at the moment. Correct.

Speaker 3 It doesn't actually end up any lot worse off. It's just re-imposition of sanctions.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 Now, having made clear that it can't join NATO, number 11 says Ukraine is eligible for EU membership.

Speaker 2 Okay, but then we really get on to the meat of what Witkoff and by the way, I noticed in the picture they released of the meeting in Geneva today, who should be there in the background again but Jared Kushner, yet again, and we know what his prime interest is.

Speaker 2 Number twelve, a powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to, the creation of a Ukraine development fund to invest in fast growing industries including technology, data centers and artificial intelligence.

Speaker 2 The United States, not the United Nations, the United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage.

Speaker 2 Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas, infrastructure development, extraction of minerals and natural resources, and the World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

Speaker 2 Point 13: Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, lifting of sanctions, long-term economic infrastructure invited to rejoin the G8. Now, number 14, just get this.

Speaker 2 We have talked so often on the podcast about these frozen funds.

Speaker 3 Frozen funds, which just to remind listeners, Europe was hoping that if we got these frozen Russian funds, we would be able to hand them to the Ukrainian government to fill in the holes in their budget, pay for their military.

Speaker 3 and basically pay reparations from Russia to the damage done.

Speaker 2 Exactly.

Speaker 2 And essentially, you and I, whilst accepting there are huge legal issues that flow from it basically means saying to europe for god's sake get on and do this here is the plan number 14 100 billion of the frozen russian assets will be invested in u.s to rebuild and invest in ukraine the u.s will receive 50 of the profits from this venture europe will add 100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for ukraine's construction this is like a mafia deal.

Speaker 3 Explain the business deal here: is that America puts in no money, there's $100 billion from frozen Russian assets, there's $100 billion from Europe, and the US gets 50% of all profits having put no money in.

Speaker 2 Correct. I mean, you know, Chatham House, foreign policy, right? And you know how they're normally very, very sober in their discussions.

Speaker 2 Their head of their Ukraine desk has put out a statement saying, this is like the mafia days of old in American business business deals this this is and it then says this the remainder of the frozen russian funds will be invested in a separate us russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas right number 15 a joint american russian working group on security issues american russian not the u.

Speaker 2 Nothing to do with Europe.

Speaker 3 No Europe, no NATO, no NATO. No Ukraine, no, no, no.

Speaker 2 Number 16, Russia will enshrine in law, oh, take that seriously, its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine. Utterly meaningless.

Speaker 2 Number 17, the US and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons. Fair enough.

Speaker 2 Number 18, and this to me is the one that if I was a Ukrainian reading this, I would say,

Speaker 2 and there's a Ukrainian MP, Lisa Yasko, who is saying that if we accept this whole package, it is an act of national suicide. That's what she called it, national suicide.
18.

Speaker 2 Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with, yes, you guessed it, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Budapest Mamorette Memorandum 1994.

Speaker 2 That's the one where Ukraine agreed to give their nuclear weapons over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, US, and UK. So why would they sort of not think of that one?

Speaker 2 Well, hold on a minute. Right, then there's more stuff about nuclear.
And then there's this one.

Speaker 2 Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice.

Speaker 2 This is all about language. This is all about you've got to speak Russian.
Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

Speaker 3 I notice it's Ukraine adopting those, not Russia. No, Russia's not adopting those yet.

Speaker 2 Correct, correct. And get this one, right? Get this one, right? All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
Well,

Speaker 2 who says whom is a Nazi?

Speaker 3 Right. Putin has consistently said the Ukrainians are Nazis, and what he's doing is placing a special military operation against Nazis.

Speaker 2 That's a way of saying to Russian people,

Speaker 2 we've got in this agreement that they won't be allowed to be Nazis anymore.

Speaker 3 Furthermore, they've admitted they're Nazis. I mean, otherwise, why did they sign this deal? At least they admit they're Nazis.

Speaker 2 right we've then got we've then got 21 which we've talked about we're getting near the end there folks 22 after agreeing on future territorial arrangements both the russian federation and ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force which is pretty much what was said in the past any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this this commitment 23 russia will not prevent ukraine from using the dnipro river for commercial activities and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

Speaker 2 24. Now this is where it gets really, really ugly.
A humanitarian committee will be established. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged.

Speaker 2 All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned including children. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims.
And here we are.

Speaker 2 All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or or consider any complaints in the future.

Speaker 2 So we know war crimes have been committed.

Speaker 2 It mentions children. Children have been taken from their families and taken to Russia.
No punishment. Blanket amnesty for all war crimes.

Speaker 3 Well, I mean, Alice, I think that that was really good. And I'm really pleased somebody's actually gone out in detail because it just explains how shattering it is all the way through.

Speaker 3 I think there are three main overall things that you might say.

Speaker 3 The first is that this is a peace deal that destroys Ukraine's sovereignty. That's what we talked about.

Speaker 3 It limits how an independent nation can have its army, its weapons, what organizations it can join, what alliances it can join. Secondly, these very hollow security guarantees.

Speaker 3 Not just no detail on what guarantee America has provided, but actually no European troops allowed into Ukraine, all the stuff about planes in Poland.

Speaker 3 And the third thing is the whole wider security of Europe, because the reason why this matters to us is that if Putin triumphs in Ukraine in this way,

Speaker 3 there is a considerable risk that he will then continue to push ahead in places like the Baltic.

Speaker 3 And, you know, people keep talking about the Russians needing three to five years to build up an army capable of fighting NATO.

Speaker 3 I don't see why he couldn't actually simply move his troops, move his troops straight from Ukraine to the Baltic border. And you can see him testing already, testing the drones, testing with attacks.

Speaker 3 So there's nothing here that explains, I suppose, the big question, which is what is going on in Trump's head.

Speaker 3 Now, if I was being cynical, and I'll hunt you on this, this ties in with my prejudice, which is I've basically kept saying

Speaker 3 since November that he's on Putin's side. His view of this is Putin's view of this.

Speaker 3 And this hopeful message that we kept hearing from European leaders that they'd changed Trump's mind, they'd shown him something he didn't understand.

Speaker 3 You know, one month we were told that they'd shown him that Russia was less powerful than he thought. Next month, we were told they'd explained the importance for Europe.

Speaker 3 And you remember all this hokey-cokey, you know, bringing Putin to Alaska, putting out tweets saying he was cross, shouting at Zelensky, not shouting at Zelensky.

Speaker 3 But the common theme, I think, remains totally unbroken. Trump is much more more consistent than people appreciate.
This deal is

Speaker 3 only a hair breadth different from the deal that Russia was asking for and that basically Trump was fantasizing about when he said he could fix it in 24 hours. Yeah.

Speaker 2 A couple of points that we didn't cover. One of them is very important.
Point 25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

Speaker 2 Well, you know why Russia wants that, because they've convinced themselves that... Zelensky might lose.

Speaker 3 US wants it for the same reason. They also want rid of Zelensky.

Speaker 2 And one of the leaders that I spoke to in in Johannesburg said they were very suspicious that the timing was related to the fact that Zelensky is kind of engulfed, or his team is engulfed, in this corruption scandal that some of the people close to him have got involved in that.

Speaker 2 And then we've also got, Roy, just as we had in Gaza, point 27, the agreement will be legally binding.

Speaker 2 Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council headed by President Donald J. Trump.
So we've got a peace plan. He's on the board of peace in Gaza.

Speaker 2 He's on the Peace Council in Ukraine. And I think that the, I think that the,

Speaker 2 what I, if you're you, if you're Zelensky there, and we got that guy, he's got so much kind of resilience and courage.

Speaker 2 So his initial reaction was to say, this is the most difficult moment in Ukraine's history. We're either going to have to surrender our dignity.

Speaker 2 or we're going to have to lose a very, very important ally.

Speaker 2 Since when, and this is a sort of, this is a repeat of previous patterns of behavior, since when the Europeans have now come out, and to be fair, they seem pretty united.

Speaker 2 They're saying the right things.

Speaker 2 But I just think sometimes, because we all have to bow down to Trump in the way that so many leaders do, and even Zelensky was doing it tonight, Trump put out this most ridiculous social media post where he said, Ukraine is showing zero gratitude.

Speaker 2 for the efforts that we're making. And Zelensky put out a statement saying, I'm very grateful to everybody who's trying to save our country and save the lives of our people.

Speaker 3 But one of the mysteries here, which is, I guess, a mystery that we got to with

Speaker 3 the ceasefire deal that he pushed through in Gaza, is why other countries sign up to this. And this is basically about American power.

Speaker 3 So if you say to the Palestinians, or indeed a lot of the Gulf states, why on earth did you accept that particular ceasefire deal?

Speaker 3 They say, in the end, we had no choice.

Speaker 3 We'd run out of room here. So the question is, will he be able to pull it off again? Because Trump's gamble is always the same.
It's that

Speaker 3 if I don't care about including the other side and I just get behind one side in this, I can force through an end to the fighting, at least temporarily. I don't fix any of the underlying problems, but

Speaker 3 I get a bit of space where I get to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Now, This is a bit different.

Speaker 3 Here, he's not dealing with small Gulf monarchies, who are very wealthy, but are nevertheless relatively small countries compared to Europe as an economic size.

Speaker 3 In fact, their economic size is a fraction of Europe's. And he's not dealing with Hamas.
He's dealing with Ukraine that was invaded. So what leverage has he got? How's he going to make this happen?

Speaker 3 Why are European leaders being polite? Why is Zelensky saying, I'm very grateful? Why are we hearing people saying, well, look, this could be the beginning of a negotiation?

Speaker 3 Well, what do they mean by that? Well, all they mean by that is we're scared, witless, that we're going to really annoy Trump. And what we're really worried about is he can do things he hasn't done.

Speaker 3 So he can suspend all intelligence and satellite cooperation entirely.

Speaker 2 Which he did very, very briefly before, didn't he?

Speaker 3 He did. Exactly.
Sorry. You pulled me up there.
I think, sorry, that's worth bearing in mind that actually some of the things I'm about to list he has done and then stopped doing them.

Speaker 3 But that probably means that if somebody says, well, he's never going to do that, you could turn around and say, well, actually, he has done that. So stop intelligence and satellite sharing.

Speaker 3 Stop the sale of key weapon systems like Patriots.

Speaker 3 Stop the sale of European weapon systems which have American components in them.

Speaker 3 So there's a complicated American law that allows them to block things made by the British, Germans and French that have American components in them.

Speaker 3 And ultimately, he could push ahead and start doing more aggressive things. Sanctions, pressure.
against the Ukrainians and anyone who's supporting them.

Speaker 3 And Trump is capable of doing those things, which is why I guess, even though everybody looking at this agrees with you, agrees this is a terrible deal, this is a Russian deal, you're hearing people say, well, this could be the beginning for a negotiation.

Speaker 3 We're very grateful.

Speaker 2 Apparently, the discussion that the European leaders were having in Johannesburg, and including Canada, and including Japan,

Speaker 2 and including some of the others who were there, and the people I spoke to said there was no dissent about this.

Speaker 2 The only discussion was whether actually to reject this outright or and to say we will bring forward our own or to do what they've done, which is to say this is a point of departure, but it's going to need radical change before Ukraine or Europe can accept it.

Speaker 2 And just on the other point on Europe, Rory, in his insulting tweet about his post today about Zelensky showing zero gratitude, he also said

Speaker 2 he's angry with Europe because they're continuing to buy Russian oil.

Speaker 2 The only ones who are continuing to buy Russian oil are Hungary, with his blessing from a meeting with Orban recently, and Slovakia, his friends.

Speaker 3 Who he said could continue to do this, yeah.

Speaker 3 So that then brings us to what is the American position. So one of the things that America is perpetually doing, particularly at the sort of senior official level, is pushing the blame onto Europe.

Speaker 3 So they will say, and you know, they're right in this, Europe has not spent enough on defense. It's spent 40 years not investing enough.
And therefore they say, it's your fault. It's Europe's problem.

Speaker 3 This is not the United States' problem. You sort it out.
And then if you're Elbridge Colbert, you say, we've got to focus on China. Russia doesn't matter.
China's what matters.

Speaker 3 China's much bigger than Russia. The US is going to focus on China.
Europe can deal with Russia.

Speaker 3 But

Speaker 3 if you really push and say, okay, but what happens if you can't trust Putin? What happens if he invades the Baltic? Maybe it's true. I mean, it probably is true.

Speaker 3 Sorry, definitely true that Europe's not invested enough in defense. But the the fact is in the next three, four years, they're not going to be there.

Speaker 3 So are you going to be providing the support to help Europe step up?

Speaker 3 I mean, if you're sincere, if what you're saying is we want to focus on China, Europe is meant to be taking on Russia, then you would expect the U.S.

Speaker 3 to be saying, here are the loans, here are the weapons systems, here is the glide path, this is when we exit, this is how we're standing up the European armies.

Speaker 3 And my guess is, actually, if you would say, but what happens if you're wrong and Putin invades the Baltic? The answer at some level, coming from people like J.D.

Speaker 3 Vance, is pretty close to we don't care. And it's beginning to feel like J.D.
Vance does not like Europe.

Speaker 3 We saw that in that amazing signal exchange.

Speaker 3 Really doesn't like what he sees as the liberal democracies of Europe. And the whole system.

Speaker 3 which America has set up since 1945, which was we're on the side of liberal democracies, human rights, democratic values against autocrats like Russia, has got out the window.

Speaker 3 And they're behaving as though these are two places at the other end of the world who they don't have any stake in and they don't care about at all.

Speaker 2 Yeah, that's why you and I were talking yesterday and sort of saying, I think people are underestimating the significance of this. And you mentioned Vance.

Speaker 2 I think this all goes back to Vance's Munich speech. Interestingly, Vance was the, more than Trump, Vance has been the one who's been talking directly to Zelensky of late.

Speaker 2 The other thing that's really sort of interesting and quite new about this, you've always had kind of advisors and what have you, but this idea of sort of

Speaker 2 freelance diplomacy. So the pictures, as I say, of the meeting with

Speaker 2 Zelensky's chief of staff, with Witkoff, there's Witkov, there's Rubio, who's the Secretary of State. You'd think he'd be the main guy, but there's Witkov.
There's Jared Kushner.

Speaker 2 And you mentioned earlier this guy, Kiro Dmitriev.

Speaker 2 He's the guy on the Russian side, and he seems to have completely sidelined Sergei Lavrov.

Speaker 2 And if you remember our interview with Radek Sikorsky, the Polish deputy prime minister, he said Lavrov's just a kind of, he's just a vassal.

Speaker 2 This guy is actually born in Ukraine.

Speaker 2 In a previous part of his life, he was actually a voice for Ukrainian independence. He's educated at Harvard.
He's worked for Goldman Sachs. He's worked for McKinsey.

Speaker 2 He's run a huge sovereign, a huge equity fund. And he apparently,

Speaker 2 I don't know the guy, but I talked to somebody who does, who who says that, or knows about him, and who said that this guy, he was featured in the Mueller report on Russian interference in the American elections.

Speaker 2 He was actually on the sanctions list at the time of the invasion. Of course, Trump has kind of, you know, led him off that.
And he's now driving Russian policy with Witkov.

Speaker 3 And certainly the big suspicion at the top of the American administration.

Speaker 3 which is confirmed basically by WhatsApp messages from Witkoff himself, is that this was the working draft between Witkoff and Kiro Dmitriev and the Kiro Dmitriev deliberately leaked it in order to put Ukraine, America on the spot,

Speaker 3 force Trump not to deny it. Now, the question then is, you know, what is the status of this thing?

Speaker 3 Is Europe and the West again going to get Trump to back off from the Russian position?

Speaker 2 Well, they have to. They have to.
They have no choice. They have no choice on this.

Speaker 2 Ukraine cannot possibly accept. Of those 28 points, I'd say there are, you could put on one hand the ones that they might be able to accept.

Speaker 2 This is a, this, let me just give you the headline of the Kiev Independent paper. U.S.
peace plan pushes Ukraine towards capitulation. The word that's being used is capitulation, surrender, suicide.

Speaker 2 I mentioned Lisa Yasko, the MP.

Speaker 2 This is just truly horrible for the Ukrainians.

Speaker 3 And the question, of course, is, how do you

Speaker 3 change Trump's mind? Because you've used all the arguments. I mean, you could think back in January or February that Trump doesn't really understand this, the stuff he doesn't get.

Speaker 3 So, a lot of those initial briefings, the Europeans were trying to turn up and with intelligence briefs and this stuff. But he's heard it all now.

Speaker 3 He's heard it enough times that he's sick of hearing it. So, you're not going to be able to say to Trump or Vance or Driscoll, who I think was even a college roommate of J.D.

Speaker 3 Vance, the Secretary of the Army, turned up in Kiev as this peace was launched to try to force it through the system. So, this treaty, all the hope hope now

Speaker 3 is that although Vance and Driscoll and Witkoff seem to want it, is it going to be a counter move from Marco Rubio?

Speaker 3 Can someone else get to Trump? Can the European leaders pull off a miracle? But I'm still left with this question, Alison. Maybe we should head over to comments.

Speaker 3 But what is it that allows Trump to back down for this? Does he care what the European leaders think?

Speaker 3 Why is it that we keep seeing this repeated pattern of him essentially selling out Ukraine and then a few days later being sort of talked off the ledge?

Speaker 2 I mean, look, he is capable of changing his posture on all sorts of things.

Speaker 2 I mean, I don't know if you watched that extraordinary meeting in the Oval Office with Zoran Mandani, the newly elected mayor of New York. I mean,

Speaker 2 quite frankly, Trump looked like he had a massive great crush on him. He was sort of stroking his arm and he was...

Speaker 3 But but isn't isn't that

Speaker 3 but isn't that

Speaker 3 your point that you make with Michael Wolf about about reality TV, which is that Trump has an instinct for how to catch the headlines? And it's much more exciting in the headlines.

Speaker 3 If he goes from saying this man is a communist who should be in jail to this man is my best friend and then next week go back to this is a man communist who should be in jail.

Speaker 2 Yeah, and he said at one point, he said it at one point with Modani, he said, you know, I've had all sorts of world leaders in here, but you know, you should see how many cameras there are outside for this guy.

Speaker 2 You know, it was like, but also within and within, so he can change his posture. And likewise, you know, within that,

Speaker 2 somebody asked him about the row with the BBC. And although he rambled on about the BBC, he was at pains to say, I really like Keir Starmer.
He's a good guy.

Speaker 2 He's got problems at home, but I really like Keir Starmer. He's a good guy.

Speaker 2 The one who has, I think, been quite robust, as you know, I look at a lot of German media, Melz has been, Mertz had a telephone call with Trump where he, you know, Keir Starmer tends to have these telephone calls and they put out a line saying they're working together, close cooperation, da-da-da-da-da.

Speaker 2 The line from the German government was much more, you know, Melz had a long telephone call with Trump and made clear that this was unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe.

Speaker 2 Von der Leyen has done a rather effective piece to camera today,

Speaker 2 repeating the lines, but essentially saying you cannot.

Speaker 2 But partly what you're saying, you're talking here about a sovereign country that you're asking to do things that go completely against its own sovereign interests.

Speaker 2 And also made the point: Ukraine has chosen Europe. Ukraine has made that choice.

Speaker 2 And no outside power power from across the Atlantic or anywhere else can come along and say no, that is the wrong choice.

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Speaker 2 We're getting loads of comments and questions.

Speaker 3 Here's one that I wanted to tackle quickly. Elaine Shalice 1179.
How much what's going on in America right now is going to be determined by the outcome of advanced Rubio struggle.

Speaker 3 Oh, and listen, I haven't paid enough tribute to the extraordinary Jack Watling, who does suffer Russia, who very kindly interrupted his Sunday to talk me through things.

Speaker 3 And again, obviously, the errors are mine and the good information is his.

Speaker 3 But anyway, Elaine Shallis on the outcome of Vance Rubia Struggle. I am much more worried by

Speaker 3 Vance, actually, almost than by Trump. Because I think Trump is all the things that you've said.
Peculiar, erratic reality TV.

Speaker 3 Vance, I'm beginning to think, has a real problem with the European Union, with Western liberal democracy, with European allies.

Speaker 3 And he isn't, like Elbridge Colby, a tilt-to-China guy. I think he's a full-on America has nothing to do with the rest of the world.

Speaker 3 Let's retreat behind our big, beautiful ocean and occasionally throw some bombs at Venezuelan boats.

Speaker 2 I guess the questioner is assuming that Vans Rubio, of course, the other thing that's happened in Magaland is

Speaker 2 Marjorie Taylor Greene or Traitor Green, as he now calls her, clearly... trying to stake out a very, very different position.

Speaker 2 We've got a question, lots of questions on this theme. I'll just give you one.
Leon, Trip plus member from Hampshire.

Speaker 2 What will it take for the British public and media to start taking the threat from Russia seriously? Surely, such a threat should be dominating the political discourse.

Speaker 2 And just on that, Roy, I am absolutely staggered.

Speaker 2 I didn't watch the BBC this morning, but I saw a thing on Twitter and it said, How did Laura Koonsberg manage to get through an hour's program without mentioning that last year a

Speaker 2 former MEP went to jail for taking bribes from the Kremlin?

Speaker 3 And it has been sent to jail for 10 years.

Speaker 2 10 and a half years. Yeah.
Now, how is that not a...

Speaker 2 And you know,

Speaker 2 on the day after, on Saturday, the only newspapers that had it on the front page were The Mirror and The Guardian.

Speaker 2 There is, I'm sorry to say this, there is a right-wing media conspiracy to, as I kept saying on our live show, to what Chris Mason calls the rise and rise of reform.

Speaker 2 That that is the story that the right-wing media want.

Speaker 3 Well, just to remind people, this was a guy who was the head of Farage's party in Wales, who was with Farage in the European Parliament, and who's pled guilty.

Speaker 3 He said, I did it, to taking Russian money to pursue Russian interests in the European Parliament.

Speaker 3 In fact, the only sad thing is that we haven't, because he pled guilty, we haven't had the full evidence played out in court.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 there's a lot of stuff that did come out in court, which

Speaker 2 exposes the extent to which the Russians do this. I actually honestly think,

Speaker 2 I really do think it's time for the government

Speaker 2 to set up a full inquiry into the interference of Russia in our democracy, including Brexit? And let me tell you the story about this is this is such a European thing.

Speaker 2 So, the question from Leon, this debate is happening, as we saw with the interview with Sikorsky, in Poland. It's happening in Finland.
It's happening in Estonia.

Speaker 2 It's happening in Latvia and Lithuania. But as Sikorsky said, if Ukraine falls, we're next in line.
That's what he said.

Speaker 2 And I think, and the French, I don't know if you saw the French, the head of the French military this week did an address to all the mayors of France to say, are we really preparing people for what might lie ahead, that we are going to lose some of our children in a war with Russia?

Speaker 3 Well, this so Awesome Penguin 42 says, this is very, it sounds like Boris Johnson, si vis pacem para bellum. So, you know, if you want peace, prepare for war.
It's as relevant today as ever, I fear.

Speaker 3 I think we are there.

Speaker 3 I mean, just on that, when I'm trying to explain what's happening to my children, what I'm trying to explain is that the reason why these conversations matter is that we're getting closer to war.

Speaker 3 We're getting closer to something that we in Britain haven't really seen since the Second World War.

Speaker 3 And all the lessons and all the architecture that was set up after the Second World War to try to keep European peace with America at the heart of it is being dismantled.

Speaker 3 And it's being dismantled not as America sometimes tries to suggest, you know, responsibly because we want to focus on China, because Europe needs to be spending more on its defense.

Speaker 3 It's being done entirely irresponsibly through carelessness and, I'm afraid, greed.

Speaker 2 I don't know if you managed to see him last week, but I saw your friend Gerald Knaus last week for

Speaker 3 lunch. I did indeed.
I had dinner with him the day you had lunch with him.

Speaker 2 Okay, very good. So he was doing the rounds.
I know he was seeing lots of people inside the government as well.

Speaker 2 But what was he, I've actually spent part of the afternoon writing my column for the New World, and I've written it thanks to Gerald about some information that he sent me.

Speaker 2 And it was a paper published by the alternative for Deutschland, the hard-right party in Germany. And it was setting out how they would, quote, save 66 billion euros from the budget.
Okay,

Speaker 2 get this. Stopping arms deliveries to Ukraine, 8.7 billion cut.

Speaker 2 Reduction of payments to the EU, 18 billion cut. So that's the amount of the European Union.
On top of the Ukraine, cuts to excessive defense spending, 10.7 billion.

Speaker 2 Cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund, 36.7 billion.

Speaker 2 Numerous other unnecessary or insufficient government expenditures. Back of a fact packet, here we go, 66 billion.
Now, just think about that.

Speaker 2 That's Germany, whereas you and I have been talking quite regularly,

Speaker 2 30% in the polls.

Speaker 2 Almost certainly going to win these regional elections next year.

Speaker 2 Mertz under pressure to say maybe we should do a deal with them blah de blah de blah de blah metz to be fair to him is holding firm but there you have that is why putin part one of the reasons why putin is prepared to play a long game he thinks trump will always side with him and he thinks if he can get rid of macron or if the french get rid of macron and the germans put the afd into a position of power he's kind of home and dry so that and and i think we why do we talk about the e3 this meeting today one of the leaders i was talking to said he was very he's he's not there and they're not part of it but the e3 is there.

Speaker 2 The E3 is France, Germany, and the UK. And people can rage about Kirstama being this and Kirstam being that.

Speaker 2 I've got to be honest. I'm quite pleased that he and Jonathan Powell are involved in this right now.

Speaker 3 Well, this point about the AFD in Germany is, and of course, as you've pointed out, JD Vance

Speaker 3 reached out to them, Elon Musk

Speaker 3 profiles them, as well as profiling Tommy Robinson. And a lot of this relates back to the whole vision that they get from Hungary.
I mean,

Speaker 3 we forget how a lot of the people on the populist right are hanging out together. This will be true for people in the UK or Brexit or reform camp in Britain.

Speaker 3 This is true for the Le Pen crowd, for the AFD crowd. They're all going to these conferences in London, in Budapest.
They're sharing ideas.

Speaker 3 And those ideas are, of course, as you say, often pro-Russia, anti-climate, anti-immigration, but also anti-liberal democracy, anti-woke, dismantle the universities, go after civil society, go after the judges.

Speaker 3 So

Speaker 3 the world that Vance is imagining is a world where he's putting ideology and culture wars, right, his hatred of liberal democracy, ahead of America's actual long-term security interests.

Speaker 3 He's supporting parties like the FD, which will make for a much weaker Germany and a much more dangerous, conflict-prone Europe.

Speaker 3 These are far-right nationalists who want nothing to do with international cooperation. And the one thing we know about far-right nationalists in Europe with weapons is that it doesn't end well.

Speaker 2 Well, the other thing they would cut is all overseas and international aid. Question here from Sir Wig, not a question, a statement.
Europe now has to take the US's place no matter the consequences.

Speaker 2 I mean, I guess that is part of what the MAGA right is kind of pushing for. It's your problem, problem, you deal with it.
And I think that part of what Europe is doing is sort of buying time.

Speaker 2 They actually I think it's agreed.

Speaker 2 Zelensky believes this, Starmer believes this, Macron believes this, they all believe this, that the American, whether we like it or not, the Americans are fundamental to any solution here.

Speaker 2 So they're trying to keep them broadly on board, but buy time to for European to develop its better defences.

Speaker 3 We're beginning to see also some of the arguments here. Paul made us five four three four.
While Rory really wants war. Why do people like these want to always send someone else's kids to die?

Speaker 3 Well, with respect, the people who are sounding the alarm on this are people who have served their country.

Speaker 3 Al Khans, who's now doing operations in the military of defence, is a British colonel who's had more frontline experience, Paul, than you will ever have in your life.

Speaker 3 Ben Wallace, the previous Secretary of Defence, had been a regular soldier in the military. I was in Iraq and in Afghanistan, being shot at.
This is absolutely nonsensical and disgusting.

Speaker 3 The reason why we are saying that we have to prepare and defend ourselves is exactly because we've seen places like Iraq and Afghanistan. We know how horrendous it is when things go wrong.

Speaker 3 And this idea that you're going to be safe by putting your head in the ground and not getting a sense of urgency. I mean, this is really at the heart of it.
We don't have a sense of urgency.

Speaker 3 And if you really think about what's happening, we will be giving money to BAE systems. We'll be signing procurement contracts.
Rhein-Metal in Germany will be making stuff.

Speaker 3 But there is not remotely a sense of this is a national effort. Everybody together.
We sit and, you know, we look at the problem. We admire the problem.
We can't get 20,000 troops up to the Baltic.

Speaker 3 Fix it. Do it.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 And the other thing,

Speaker 2 it is really strange to me that America, we've made this point before. Trump's America seems to value its relationship with traditional enemies more than with traditional allies.

Speaker 2 And the hard right across Europe, in which I would include Nigel Farage and reform, they seem more tempted by a Putin style of leadership than a more

Speaker 2 civilized, standardized European leadership. And what was really interesting about that, that when Nathan Gill was sentenced the other day.
I don't think Farage has said a word.

Speaker 2 And, you know, he's normally never off the BBC, but he doesn't seem to have appeared, or perhaps they've just lost his phone number. But

Speaker 2 he's somebody who on

Speaker 2 the messaging from reform on the day the plan came out was you had Richard Tyson, Zu say, this plan is unacceptable to Ukraine.

Speaker 2 Brackets, we haven't really said much like this before, but we've just had one of our people go down to jail for being too close to Russia and taking bribes off them. So we better pretend.

Speaker 2 I actually think there is something very, very strange.

Speaker 2 And I think it relates to the extent to which the security services have been warning about this for years. Russia does not stint when it comes to hybrid warfare.

Speaker 2 It doesn't stint when it comes to intelligence gathering. And I think there is something very, very strange about the relationship of these hard-right parties and Putin's Russia.

Speaker 2 And we need to do a better job of looking into it, media and government included.

Speaker 3 Well, maybe, maybe final one for me.

Speaker 3 I think two things to take away. One is

Speaker 3 this document lays out now in black and white what Trump's position really is, what he really thinks of Europe, what he really thinks of Russia, what he really thinks the international system, the international order.

Speaker 3 And we should never fool ourselves again

Speaker 3 about who we're dealing with, the kind of guy we're dealing with. And don't underestimate that effectively what the U.S.
is saying is that it doesn't have allies anymore, that it no longer

Speaker 3 about the Western Alliance, it no longer cares about values, it no longer cares about human rights, it no longer cares about state sovereignty, it no longer cares about liberal democracy.

Speaker 3 What Trump fundamentally cares about is making money. Right at the heart of this deal is minerals deals, 50% profits, doing business with Russia.
Right at the heart of the Gaza deal is

Speaker 3 real estate deals, right?

Speaker 3 And the second thing I think that we need to take from this is your point, which is

Speaker 3 if we now are facing a Europe which is in almost every conceivable way making the world poorer through its tariffs, more dangerous through its policies on international treaties, not even turning up at the G20, let alone tramping at it.

Speaker 2 Or COP.

Speaker 3 Or COP threatening to invade Greenland to take it off Denmark,

Speaker 3 we need to step up. And stepping up is a complete change of mindset.
That is

Speaker 3 a Europe and a Britain that we just haven't seen. We can do it.
Of course, we can.

Speaker 3 This is 500 million people. This is one of the wealthiest regions of the world.

Speaker 3 If we wanted in three, four years' time to be in a position where Putin wouldn't think of touching us, we could be there. But we'd have to start now and do it seriously.

Speaker 2 And your point on values and the rule of law and all that other stuff that goes with democracy.

Speaker 2 The other big meeting in the Oval Office that got a lot of attention last week was Trump with Mohammed bin Salman, leader of Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 2 And a journalist from ABC asked a perfectly reasonable question

Speaker 2 about Khashoggi, who was famously journalist, who was famously lured into an embassy abroad and hacked to death or chainsawed to death.

Speaker 2 And before MBS could reply, Trump basically attacked the journalist, fake news, ABC, horrible woman, da-da-da-da-da-da.

Speaker 2 And then went on to say, a lot of people didn't like that gentleman, and these things happen.

Speaker 2 In other words, and so there you are, so far as he's concerned, if he's with a strongman leader that he likes, they are entitled to do absolutely what they want.

Speaker 2 And of course, that's what he believes he should be allowed to do, exactly what. he wants.

Speaker 2 And I think for Zelensky, and I know this corruption stuff is murky, and people close to him have clearly sort of, you know, let him down. But

Speaker 2 I think we've just got to stand by him as somebody who is really in one of the most difficult places it is imaginable for a world leader to be placed. And European leaders,

Speaker 2 Canada, Mark Carney, the Japanese, Australians, New Zealanders, and others. I think one of these leaders said to me that we just have to understand.

Speaker 2 He actually mentioned, you know, lots of the leaders who were at G20 are also a cop. Two big summits in recent days, he said, both boycotted by Trump and America.
Trump gets all the attention.

Speaker 2 We got a lot of work done. We've got a lot of stuff done.
We can do a lot of stuff with or without the United States. They're the most powerful country in the world, along with China.

Speaker 2 We have to work with them. We have to trade with them.
We have to do our best. But we are kidding ourselves, he said, if we don't understand our world of diplomacy has fundamentally changed.

Speaker 2 And that's what Zelensky is finding out right now.

Speaker 3 Well, Alistair, thank you. Thank you for everybody who joined us and for all the comments, for the challenges, for the questions.
And look forward to seeing you soon.

Speaker 3 We've got question time coming, got the UK budget coming, but this is something we've got to keep focused on. i'll see you soon bye bye