Will Tariffs Affect Holiday Shopping?

Speaker 1 time for Black Friday, Dell Technology's biggest sale of the year.

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Speaker 13 This is death by a thousand cuts. Okay.
It may be a couple dollars here, a couple dollars there. As you're shopping, you may actually not notice.

Speaker 13 And then when you think about how much you've spent in the cumulative, you're like, where did all that go?

Speaker 13 I'm Christine Zeer-Clissette. I'm Kyra Blackwell.

Speaker 14 I'm Rosie Garin. And you're listening to The Wirecutter Show.

Speaker 13 Rosie, it's just us in the studio today. Flying Solo.
Flying Solo without Kyra. And I think she would actually love this conversation because we are talking about deals today, holiday deals.

Speaker 13 It's November. A lot of people are probably thinking about their or starting to think about their holiday shopping.
Are you a pre-planner for shopping?

Speaker 13 Do you shop ahead of time or do you wait kind of closer to the holidays?

Speaker 14 I am a mix. You know, I'm a maverick.

Speaker 13 I sort of can't be pinned down.

Speaker 14 No, I do like keeping lists throughout the year, but there is inevitably that moment where I'm panicked because it's two weeks out and I haven't gotten through the list.

Speaker 13 Yeah. I tend to do something similar.
I'll keep some lists. I am not historically a big Black Friday shopper.

Speaker 13 That said, this year I do have a list of things that I'm looking for for my kids that I have been looking for some deals on.

Speaker 13 So I think this is a great time for us to talk with somebody who really knows a lot about deals and what to expect this year.

Speaker 13 And I think it's going to be a little bit different than it has been in years past.

Speaker 14 Yeah, I think that's probably true. We've done two episodes on this show within the last year, specifically about tariffs.
and their connection to consumer product pricing.

Speaker 14 And that's been based on wirecutter journalists who are trying to kind of get to the bottom of this question, will tariffs affect the prices of the things I want and I need to buy? And if so, how?

Speaker 14 Those conversations kind of speculated how this holiday shopping season might be affected, but now it's upon us.

Speaker 14 So I think it's time to sort of really look at where we're at and what the next month and a half is going to look like.

Speaker 13 After the break, we're going to talk with Anne-Marie Conte.

Speaker 13 She is a deputy editor here at WireCutter, and she used to run our deals team and now reports on a variety of subjects, from answering reader questions in our Ask Wirecutter column to figuring out why pencil erasers are so bad.

Speaker 13 You need to look at this series. She's such a good piece.
It's really great. And her most recent piece is all about what to expect during this time with tariffs.

Speaker 13 It's called Wirecutter's Guide to Navigating Tariffs this holiday season. And I think that's really the crux of what we're going to talk about today.

Speaker 14 That's right.

Speaker 14 We're going to break down some of the product categories where Anne-Marie has seen the most price volatility and talk about some shopping strategies that you might want to consider heading into the holidays this year.

Speaker 13 So after the break, Anne-Marie Conte, be right back.

Speaker 2 It's time for Black Friday, Dell Technology's biggest sale of the year. Enjoy the lowest prices of the year on select PCs like the Dell 16 Plus, featuring Intel Core ultra-processors.

Speaker 7 And with built-in advanced features, it's the PC that helps you do more faster.

Speaker 5 Plus, earn Dell rewards and enjoy many other benefits like free shipping, price match guarantee, and expert support.

Speaker 10 They also have huge deals on accessories that pair perfectly with your Dell PC and make perfect gifts for everyone on your list.

Speaker 12 Shop now at dell.com slash deals.

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Speaker 13 Welcome back.

Speaker 14 We are officially into the holiday shopping season, and Black Friday in particular is a time many of us are looking for deals.

Speaker 14 This year, what it looks like is a little bit different, largely because of how tariffs are impacting product prices. Our guest today is deputy editor at Wirecutter Anne-Marie Conte.

Speaker 14 We're talking about her newest article, Wirecutter's Guide to Navigating Tariffs this holiday season.

Speaker 13 Anne-Marie, welcome back. Oh, I'm so excited to be here.
It's great to have you. I always love it when you're on the show.

Speaker 14 Anne-Marie, before we jump in to the nitty-gritty on tariffs and shopping this season, I want to know, this

Speaker 14 reporting specifically might not be everyone's cup of tea. You have delved deep into it with both feet.
Talk about your background a little bit and why this doesn't put you to sleep.

Speaker 13 Rosie, I am deeply shocked that not everyone is as excited about about tariffs as I am. I'm a massive cheapskate, right?

Speaker 13 And so I was definitely grew up in a household where value was really important to us. And so when I came to Wirecutter and, you know, money and value and deals is very inherent to who I am.

Speaker 13 And it's inherent to Wirecutter. We really want people to never regret their purchases and to get the most for their money.

Speaker 13 And that doesn't necessarily only mean spending the least least amount possible. You can indulge and splurge on things, but you have to be smart about it.

Speaker 13 And so this is the stuff that gets me really jazzed. And what I don't like is people overpaying for something or feeling like they've been hoodwinked.

Speaker 13 The best feeling is feeling like you got something that's really great, really useful for a really good price.

Speaker 13 Back in June, you joined us on the show to talk about this deals tracking project that you and the deals team have been working on where you tracked 40 wire cutter picks.

Speaker 13 And at that point, you had had been tracking those prices for about two months, right? And now you've been tracking them for almost six months, the same products.

Speaker 13 In June, the story was not much has changed, but there might be some changes coming down the pike. Where are we at now? This was a real surprise.
It's changed both a lot and a little.

Speaker 13 Broadly, prices haven't moved as much as we thought they would. And we've seen the peaks in the valleys.
Some companies were able to get exceptions.

Speaker 13 So Apple, they haven't had to increase their prices because they got exemptions to the tariffs. But if they don't get extended, those prices might go up.

Speaker 13 So we are still in this position of a little bit of wait and see.

Speaker 13 Things have changed individually, but not necessarily broadly.

Speaker 14 And so when you did that tracking, when the deals team did that tracking, you were looking at... a diverse array of products, right?

Speaker 14 These were things across multiple product categories.

Speaker 13 Yeah. And we really wanted to pick things that you would buy frequently and larger purchases.
So we did have things like a washer-dryer in there. And then we also had baby kid products like car seats.

Speaker 13 Those have increased. We were just picking what we thought was best at the time.

Speaker 13 And so it was emblematic of someone's daily life, but not necessarily of what would be affected by tariffs because we didn't really know at that point.

Speaker 13 But you're still tracking those same 40 products. And so it's been about six months now since you've been tracking them.
Yep. And so the baby kid products have increased a bit.

Speaker 13 And anything made with steel, the tariffs have hit that industry pretty hard. But mostly we're seeing normal price fluctuations and deal pricing.

Speaker 13 That's the other thing that I think people need to know is that prices fluctuate normally anyway, depending on the deal cycle or depending on the time of year.

Speaker 13 We are not seeing too many aberrations around that.

Speaker 13 Do you think the average shopper is going to get online this year or go into a brick and mortar store and go shopping and be sticker shocked by prices they're seeing?

Speaker 13 Or do you think it's kind of like sort of a little bump? This is death by a thousand cuts.

Speaker 13 It may be a couple dollars here, a couple dollars there. As you're shopping, you may actually not notice.

Speaker 13 And then when you think about how much you've spent in the cumulative, you're like, where did all that go? I think that's why the average person hasn't quite

Speaker 13 seen those increases that we've been seeing because we look at this stuff every single day of the year. But on some items, things have gotten significantly more expensive.

Speaker 13 The actually really interesting thing is one of the sources that I interviewed told me that initially when the tariffs were announced, people were what they called trading down.

Speaker 13 So they were buying less expensive products. But that leveled out as the economy wasn't necessarily as bad as everyone thought it was going to be.

Speaker 13 I think people were sort of girding themselves at the beginning and then things leveled out. Now, we're not talking groceries.
We're not talking about things like that.

Speaker 13 I think people are really seeing the sticker shop there. For sure, absolutely.
We're talking about everyday household products, gifts.

Speaker 14 So, running it back, 101, I want to know how do tariffs directly affect product pricing?

Speaker 13 Maybe that isn't 101.

Speaker 13 So,

Speaker 13 President Trump campaigned on tariffs. He, on inauguration day, he said, we're instituting the tariffs.

Speaker 13 Generally,

Speaker 13 that is paid upon import. So it's not paid by the manufacturer.
It's paid by us as things come into the country. There's actually a couple of things going on here.
It's not a one-on-one.

Speaker 13 So depending on if it's something that's a component, that can increase the price because these manufacturers need to use these components in a larger product. So, like a chip or something like that.

Speaker 13 Yeah, you know, steel coils in a mattress. Okay.
But also, there are tariffs on larger and more broad categories of goods as well. So, it's really hard to pin down.
Things are changing.

Speaker 13 Negotiations happen. And so, that's also been hard.
These manufacturers and these brands have been unable to plan for the year.

Speaker 13 And so, there are times when they say, our hand is forced. We had to increase prices.

Speaker 13 But what they tried to do was import as much as they could before the tariffs took effect, hold them stateside, and sell through that stock.

Speaker 13 And so now we're at a point where that stock has been sold down. And what's going to happen next is they're going to have to import more goods and they have to figure out what makes sense.

Speaker 13 But it's like throwing spaghetti at the wall.

Speaker 14 And that kind of stockpile move, ideally, was so so that prices weren't passed over to the consumer.

Speaker 13 Yes. And they were hoping that things would shift and change in a way that would allow them to just remain steady.
In some cases, that has worked.

Speaker 13 And in other cases, especially small businesses have had to say, we just can't absorb this cost anymore. Larger manufacturers, larger brands are more able to spread the cost out across their products.

Speaker 13 But the interesting thing is that back in April, President Trump was quoted as saying, saying, I'm paraphrasing, like the kids will have to have just two dolls this year.

Speaker 13 And guess what? Mattel has had to increase the price on their dolls.

Speaker 13 That actually was prescient in a way. You know, American Girl dolls, they had to increase them, I think, by $10 per doll.

Speaker 13 So we're seeing some larger jumps and some smaller jumps depending on the brand, the type of product, all of that.

Speaker 14 And the reality is that even manufacturers who could stockpile, you can only stockpile for so long. Correct.

Speaker 13 You mentioned earlier that you've seen prices increase on kids and baby gear, on things made with steel. So the mattress coils.
What are some other examples of steel-made goods? Cars?

Speaker 13 Are we talking cars? Cars.

Speaker 13 The screw industry. Like, you don't think about it, and screws are in everything.

Speaker 13 And so, including humans.

Speaker 13 I have screws in my wrist. So that's part of the challenge of this is that it's impossible to predict.
It's impossible to know. And so some things can be absorbed and other things can't.

Speaker 13 We're also seeing right now.

Speaker 13 gaming consoles, we're expecting those to increase.

Speaker 13 So that is something that we think really should, you know, if you're going to buy a gaming console, you might want to buy it now because we're concerned it might get even more expensive.

Speaker 13 What about other electronics at, you know, computers? Are we seeing any sort of of movement in those categories? Aaron Ross Powell, in some cases.

Speaker 13 So the really interesting thing is that Kimber Streams, who does all of our Chromebook testing, actually removed our top pick and replaced it because it had jumped by $100.

Speaker 13 That was not, as far as I know, it was not directly attributed to tariffs, right? A lot of this price increase is also due to general economics or trade or the value of the U.S. dollar.

Speaker 13 Not every company is attributing things directly to tariffs, but what we do know, just because we can see it in our own price tracking, is that some things are getting more expensive.

Speaker 13 So that Chromebook pick in the scheme of all of our Chromebooks no longer felt like the best value. And so they replaced it with something that felt like a better value.

Speaker 14 So thinking about these categories, the things that contain steel, the screw industry,

Speaker 14 laptops, headphones, How do you recommend shopping?

Speaker 13 Yeah, with things like electronics, our teams really believe that you generally don't need the absolute latest bells and whistles. Often, the improvements are incremental.

Speaker 13 And so for the majority of people,

Speaker 13 earlier edition tech is fine. And the thing that's really ironic is that

Speaker 13 older tech should be less expensive. Sometimes that's not actually the case.
Sometimes this tech is getting more expensive.

Speaker 13 Previous versions of laptops, headphones, things like that, you can usually get away with last year's version and it's going to be great. It's going to totally work for you.

Speaker 13 We also do recommend some refurbished items too. That's absolutely a way to go.

Speaker 13 And there's just a variety of ways that you can shop and frame your thinking about shopping for Christmas gifts or Hanukkah gifts or any general holiday gifts that I think helps ensure that you're not panicking because we never want you to panic.

Speaker 13 Just to recap, what we've talked about so far, Anne-Marie, tariff pricing is probably going to impact every product category this year to varying degrees, but you will probably see higher prices on things like electronics and baby gear.

Speaker 13 And if you're looking for a good price for a deal this season, make sure and check out Wire Cutter's Deal page.

Speaker 14 When we come back, Anne-Marie is going to give us some practical advice and some strategies for saving money while shopping this holiday season. Stick around.

Speaker 13 We'll be right back.

Speaker 2 It's time for Black Friday, Dell Technology's biggest sale of the year.

Speaker 6 Enjoy the lowest prices of the year on select PCs like the Dell 16 Plus, featuring Intel Core ultra-processors.

Speaker 7 And with built-in advanced features, it's the PC that helps you do more faster.

Speaker 5 Plus, earn Dell rewards and enjoy many other benefits like free shipping, price match guarantee, and expert support.

Speaker 10 They also have huge deals on accessories that pair perfectly with your Dell PC and make perfect gifts for everyone on your list.

Speaker 12 Shop now at dell.com slash deals.

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Speaker 13 Welcome back. We're talking about holiday shopping with deputy editor Anne-Marie Conte.

Speaker 14 Anne-Marie, last year around Black Friday, we talked to Nathan Burrow. He's the senior editor of deals here at Wirecutter.

Speaker 14 One of the things I thought was really interesting that he mentioned is this kind of,

Speaker 14 I don't know if shady is the right word, but this move where you see prices on products increase just before deals events to sort of give the illusion that when we say 40% off, you're getting this massive massive discount talk to me about that and what we're seeing a year later we've been talking about this for years we have been watching this happen over and over and over again across retailers multiple retailers do this it is not specific to any one retailer however

Speaker 13 As we've been doing our 40 product price tracking, we definitely saw this happen where a laptop would go from $7.99 to $8.99

Speaker 13 right before the deal event, and then it would go back down to $7.99. So it looked like it was on sale, and it was the same price it had been the whole time previous to that.

Speaker 13 And there's now a class action lawsuit against Amazon for this reason, claiming that they misrepresented their pricing to make the deals look better.

Speaker 13 That is why we really encourage price tracking and purchasing from a reliable place, like not to toot our own deals horn, but that's what they do.

Speaker 13 And they will not post a price on a deal that isn't a real deal. Right.

Speaker 14 So the deals team at Wirecutter tracks product prices of wire cutter picks across the site all year long. How do they do this tracking? How does it work?

Speaker 13 They are geniuses and they're very good at this.

Speaker 13 So a lot of it is manual. You know, they're checking every day to see what's on sale, to see what the prices are.
And then they also use tools that everybody has access to, right?

Speaker 13 So there are tools like Kipa, Camel Camel, Camel, even Google Shopping that will show you the price tracking over time.

Speaker 13 With Google Shopping, you need to create a list and it'll start tracking the product for you. But with Keepa and Camel Camel Camel, it'll show you previous history.
So you can take a look and see.

Speaker 13 And it just gives you a general timeframe and understanding of how much this product should cost so that you can decide if you're comfortable paying that price.

Speaker 13 And just to be clear, Camel Camel, Camel, and Kipa are to track Amazon prices, prices on Amazon.

Speaker 13 And then, if you're wanting to track, you know, deal history and prices for other sites, use Google Shop. Yep.

Speaker 14 Okay, so based on that data, do you think and does your reporting suggest that we will see fewer deals heading into the holiday season this year?

Speaker 14 Or are the deals that we will see just going to be smaller and less impactful than in years past?

Speaker 13 We've seen deal quality reduce this year. So between July's prime day

Speaker 13 and

Speaker 13 October's big deal days, which now at this point, those are Amazon-specific events, but many retailers put deals on sale around that time to try to compete.

Speaker 13 So across retailers, we have seen in just those three months, the deal quality get worse. So you're getting a worse deal now than you would have three months ago.

Speaker 13 And that's for a variety variety of reasons, one being the stockpiled imports.

Speaker 13 But we also expect that for Black Friday, there will be plenty of good deals. They may not be the best deal you've ever seen.

Speaker 13 It may not be the onslaught of deals that we've seen in years past, but we're going to continue to vet and only post the deals that we deem worth it and worthy. But it's also probably

Speaker 13 not a good idea to wait until Black Friday to do all of of your shopping because it may not be the best deal you've ever seen.

Speaker 13 And we're also in a position now where Black Friday is the end of November. And so you only have a very limited amount of time to do your holiday shopping.

Speaker 13 It sounds like culturally we've been sort of trained to think of Black Friday as the time to sort of wait, think about what you want, and then see if you can get a good deal, right?

Speaker 13 So it sounds like what you're saying, En-ROAD, is that might be changing this year a little bit.

Speaker 13 If you see a a good deal before Black Friday, go ahead and get it because there's no guarantee you're going to see like a huge drop at Black Friday. Yeah.
Would you say that's accurate?

Speaker 13 It feels like a mistake to wait this year. I think you should absolutely can and should shop on Black Friday if that's important to you and if you want to see what deals there are out there.

Speaker 13 But we're not necessarily confident that doing all of your shopping on Black Friday will make the most sense right now.

Speaker 14 It's amazing to me how much shopping and the economy around shopping shopping has changed.

Speaker 14 I mean, even the fact of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, whatever Tuesday is, there's this whole week now that's focused. You mentioned both prime days.

Speaker 13 It seems like there are a lot of places to look at how broader economics...

Speaker 14 and tariffs included are affecting prices of things. And it feels to me to be so dynamic, so out of my control.
And that's an uncomfortable place to be when going into holiday shopping.

Speaker 14 So I'm wondering, what is your practical advice beyond, you know, you mentioned maybe don't buy the brand new laptop. If it's out of your price range, you might not need it.

Speaker 14 Last year's model might be great.

Speaker 13 It sounds so simple and it's literally make a list, right? And I think part of that is it doesn't even have to be a list of everything that you want to buy.

Speaker 13 It's the people in your life that you want to make sure you cover and a general idea of what they like and they're interested in.

Speaker 13 You still can have some serendipity here, but just getting yourself organized enough so that you know who's important to you and who not to forget so that you're not panicking at the last minute.

Speaker 13 And, you know, there are so many places where you can buy gifts that you may not expect to at a high-end grocery store or at a high-end pharmacy. There's all these lovely little delights.

Speaker 13 And if you see a good deal on something, something that you think is a good price, there's no harm in buying multiples of those and keeping them as future housewarming gifts, or especially when it comes to kids as birthday gifts, because we do expect things to get more expensive.

Speaker 13 And so having a little stockpile of things that you know will go over well with more than one person is not a bad idea. I love that.
Earlier, you mentioned that Don't wait for Black Friday.

Speaker 13 You also said Black Friday is actually quite late in November this year. So the shipping window is kind of short, right? Like comparative to other years.
What should people know about shipping?

Speaker 13 We've seen firsthand. I actually just ordered something from abroad and there were definitely customs delays.
It had said it had already arrived and it hadn't even left its warehouse yet.

Speaker 13 So it's potentially a huge issue. And we're not seeing as many of the tariff bills upon delivery that we thought we would.
So explain what those are. Yes.

Speaker 13 So the de minimis minimis exemption went away, which meant that anything under $800

Speaker 13 was supposed to get zero tariffs. When that went away, when you order something from abroad, sometimes

Speaker 13 the company in France or in England will absorb those fees or they will add it on at checkout.

Speaker 13 If they don't do that, the shipper will show up up at your door and say, we're not giving you this package until you pay something. It's usually around $30 from what we've seen.

Speaker 13 But Wirecutter has ordered thousands of products this year, and we've only received a handful of those tariff bills. So we don't think it's as big of an issue as we thought it might have been.

Speaker 13 However,

Speaker 13 We are seeing the shipping delays. So if you're shopping at a place like Etsy, you can actually filter down and make sure that you're shopping from US-based sellers.

Speaker 13 And that will reduce the friction potentially of an item not arriving on time.

Speaker 13 If you can't build in that extra time for something abroad, if you know that you need that French tart server, buy it now just to make sure it gets here.

Speaker 13 Because those companies, even on their sites, are saying there will be shipping delays. Keep that in mind.

Speaker 13 In terms of shipping generally within the continental U.S., most retailers are going to work their butts off to make sure that you get it. You might have to pay a little more, right?

Speaker 13 That's always the case. As things end up more last-minute, it might get more expensive to ship.

Speaker 13 But they're really going to do the best they can to get it to you.

Speaker 13 And

Speaker 13 if you are shopping last minute,

Speaker 13 the safest sort of non-

Speaker 13 nail-biter make sure it gets within the continental U.S.

Speaker 13 is like the second week of December for a Christmas arrival. We got to tell Kyra.
Yeah, she's not going to like that. They moved up Christmas.
You got to shop earlier.

Speaker 14 And then, you know, we should also say you can walk into stores still.

Speaker 13 It's amazing.

Speaker 14 All right, Anne-Marie, thank you so much. Happy shopping this holiday season.

Speaker 13 You know what? No matter what, it's going to be a great holiday season. We're going to get it together.
We're going to figure it out. Thanks, Anne-Marie.

Speaker 14 If you want to find out more about the advice Anne-Marie had for us today, you can find links to her reporting in our show notes or you could check out our website.

Speaker 14 And hey, if you like our show, first of all, we appreciate it. Second of all, we'd love if you share it with a friend.
Don't forget to subscribe on whatever app you like to listen on.

Speaker 14 That's it for us. Thanks for listening.

Speaker 13 The Wirecutter Show is executive produced by Rosie Guerin and produced by Abigail Keel. Engineering support from Maddie Mazziello and Nick Pittman.
Today's episode was mixed by Katherine Anderson.

Speaker 13 Original music music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Rowan Nemisto, Katherine Anderson, and Diane Wong. Cliff Levy is WireCutter's deputy publisher and general manager.

Speaker 13 Ben Freuman is Wirecutter's editor-in-chief. I'm Christine Sear Clissette.

Speaker 14 And I'm Rosie Guerin.

Speaker 13 Thanks for listening.

Speaker 13 Keep it, keep it, keep it. Sorry.
That's a hard one. Keep it.

Speaker 13 It's Campbell, Campbell, Camel, and Keepa. So I'm like, just all the Keepas.

Speaker 2 It's time for Black Friday, Dell Technology's biggest sale of the year. Enjoy the lowest prices of the year on select PCs like the Dell 16 Plus, featuring Intel Core ultra-processors.

Speaker 7 And with built-in advanced features, it's the PC that helps you do more faster.

Speaker 8 Plus, earn Dell rewards and enjoy many other benefits like free shipping, price match guarantee, and expert support.

Speaker 10 They also have huge deals on accessories that pair perfectly with your Dell PC and make perfect gifts for everyone on your list.

Speaker 12 Shop now at dell.com/slash deals.