Occupy Gaza Plan, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks, China Economy

Speaker 1 Israel is making plans to occupy Gaza.

Speaker 2 You cannot destroy Hamas without controlling the entire Gaza Strip.

Speaker 4 But what would it take to hold the territory and what does it mean for the Palestinians living there?

Speaker 1 I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is up first from NPR News.

Speaker 1 Negotiators from the United States and Ukraine met in Saudi Arabia over the weekend to iron out a ceasefire deal with Russia. But as bombs keep falling on Kyiv, is is a real truce even possible?

Speaker 4 And China is trying to rebalance its economy. Steve is in Beijing for China's annual conference for global business to find out how China is planning to deal with the U.S.
trade war.

Speaker 5 Falling back to the law of the jungle will be a regression in history and a tragedy for humanity.

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Speaker 4 We have new details about military plans Israel has drawn up for Gaza.

Speaker 1 Israel is considering a ground invasion to fully occupy the territory within a few months and establish Israeli military rule over Palestinians there.

Speaker 1 It's unclear whether these plans will actually be carried out. We do know that Israel resumed its war in Gaza, where Palestinians have updated their death count, saying it surpassed 50,000.

Speaker 4 And Pierre's Daniel Estron is on the line with us now from Tel Aviv. Daniel, good morning.

Speaker 8 Good morning, Michelle.

Speaker 4 What can you tell us about these classified plans?

Speaker 8 Well, I've spoken to two people who they reviewed the classified plans, and they spoke to me on condition of anonymity to discuss them.

Speaker 8 The plans would have Israeli forces occupy Gaza, entering at multiple points, pushing Palestinians into a small zone designated for civilians, and that Israel is examining options for the military to control the distribution of food, which would be limited to a minimum caloric amount.

Speaker 8 Now, both people who reviewed these plans said it's unclear if they would would really be carried out or if they're just a negotiation tactic to pressure Hamas to release more hostages.

Speaker 8 In fact, it might be both.

Speaker 8 Getting some hostages free from Hamas captivity initially, but then gradually moving toward full military rule over Palestinians in Gaza, which would go far beyond what Israel has stated as its war goals.

Speaker 8 The military told me it would not comment on future operational plans.

Speaker 4 Do these plans for Israel ruling Gaza have the support of the Trump administration?

Speaker 8 We don't know. Trump administration officials did not return my requests for comment.

Speaker 8 We do know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israel's military operations in Gaza yesterday.

Speaker 8 We also know that President Trump's Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff has acknowledged that Bibi Netanyahu's return to war is not what many Israelis want.

Speaker 8 He talked about that in a podcast interview with commentator Tucker Carlson published Friday.

Speaker 9 I think Bibi

Speaker 8 And indeed, there have been daily protests in the streets here saying the return to war only benefits Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and endangers hostages in Gaza.

Speaker 4 To that end, what are you hearing from Israelis about these plans for Gaza?

Speaker 8 Some are seeing this as something that should have been done already and that can actually lead to the defeat of Hamas.

Speaker 8 We spoke with Amir Avivi, who's a former deputy commander of the military's Gaza division.

Speaker 8 So he's saying a few months, but other Israeli defense officials and analysts who I spoke with are more skeptical about that.

Speaker 8 Also, Dan Shapiro, a top Pentagon official on Medi's policy under the Biden administration, spoke with us. They're saying, okay, well, once Israel occupies Gaza, then what?

Speaker 8 This could mire Israeli soldiers in Gaza for decades, and we're hearing from reservist soldiers already.

Speaker 8 They're exhausted after more than a year of war and very skeptical that this could actually change the picture fundamentally.

Speaker 4 That is Empire's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Daniel, thank you.
You're welcome.

Speaker 4 Delegations from the United States and Ukraine have begun talks in Saudi Arabia to try to achieve a ceasefire in Russia's war with Ukraine.

Speaker 1 Ukraine's defense minister called these conversations productive. The Americans meet the Russians next.

Speaker 1 So far, both sides have agreed to stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure, although Ukraine's president says that is far from a genuine ceasefire.

Speaker 4 We're going to go now to Enkar's Eleanor Beardsley, who is in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Eleanor, hello.

Speaker 10 Good morning, Michelle.

Speaker 4 So you've been talking to people in Kyiv, people who are just trying to live their lives. Do the people

Speaker 4 that you've heard from think that these talks could produce a real ceasefire?

Speaker 10 Not really, because no one believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants to stop the war. And frankly, the proof of that is all around them.

Speaker 10 On Saturday night, Russia launched one of its biggest drone attacks yet against Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. And I was cowering in the bathroom as this battle went on for over an hour in the skies.

Speaker 10 And I stuck my phone out the window. Here's what it sounded like, Michelle.

Speaker 10 You know, that's the air defenses shooting down the Iranian Shahed drones, but they were overwhelmed and some got through. There were fires all night.

Speaker 10 Three people were killed, says the mayor of Kiev, and dozens wounded.

Speaker 10 I went yesterday to an apartment block near the river that was hit by a drone and where an older woman had burned to death in her top-floor apartment. And people were gathered out front.

Speaker 10 Everybody was looking up. The apartment was blackened.
The roof and ceiling were gone. Windows were blown out all around, and there was a lot of damage to the building.

Speaker 4 Wow,

Speaker 4 that sounds terrible. What do Ukrainians say? What do they tell you about these ongoing attacks, even as the ceasefire talks are taking place?

Speaker 10 Yeah, well, they say these attacks just sort of make the talks a farce. I spoke with a 19-year-old law student, Tatiana, who was at the building.

Speaker 10 She didn't want to give her last name, but she pulled up a video on social media of the woman on the top floor's death, and she asked me to share it with Americans.

Speaker 11 And this is a part of the video of the screaming.

Speaker 11 This is screening. So, like, if you can show it in your country and to tell what is happening, just see, just see what is going on, just see how we live in this reality.

Speaker 10 You know, she says she wants to show Americans who say they're sick of the war that we're sick of it too, and they're exhausted by the continued and constant attacks from a country that invaded them three years ago.

Speaker 4 And remind us, what is Ukraine pushing for in these talks?

Speaker 10 Well, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to broaden the ceasefire to include other infrastructure. He spoke last night.
Here he is.

Speaker 10 And he basically says, you know, everybody, the U.S., Europe, the world, needs to put more pressure on Russia to stop this terror.

Speaker 10 And Zelensky said after the last meetings in Saudi Arabia, where Russian President Vladimir Putin would only agree to stop targeting energy infrastructure, that it should be clear to everyone that Russia is the only one who's dragging out this war.

Speaker 4 And what is Russia expected to ask for in these talks?

Speaker 10 Russia will demand that Ukraine cede swaths of territory that the Russian army doesn't even fully control because Putin says these four regions are now part of Russia since he held illegal referendums there two years ago and annexed them.

Speaker 10 Russia wants the West to end all military aid. Europe says no way on that.
Russia wants Ukraine to majorly scale back its military.

Speaker 10 These are maximalist demands, one analyst told me, and they're not acceptable conditions for Ukraine.

Speaker 10 But to even be able to sit down and talk face-to-face about it, Ukraine says the nightly attacks on its cities must end.

Speaker 4 That is NQR's Eleanor Beardsley and Kiev. Eleanor, thank you.

Speaker 10 You're welcome, Michelle.

Speaker 4 In recent weeks, we have followed the news of President Trump's tariffs on China. Today we hear some of China's response because Steve is in Beijing.

Speaker 1 This is where China's second highest government official spoke this week. Li Chang addressed a big business forum here.

Speaker 1 There were a lot of international CEOs in the room, including Americans like Tim Cook of Apple, and they heard him suggest that China, not the U.S., is the stable country now, the country that plays by the rules, he said.

Speaker 5 Falling back to the law of the jungle will be a regression in history and a tragedy for humanity.

Speaker 1 Now, the Chinese premier did not mention Donald Trump or tariffs, but did speak of rising instability in the world and called for open markets. Our colleague Anthony Keon is here in Beijing.

Speaker 1 He's a longtime China watcher. And Anthony, it's great to be face to face with you since we normally talk over thousands of miles on the line.

Speaker 3 Exactly. Welcome back.

Speaker 1 Thank you very much. Glad to be here.
What is China doing with remarks like that about the situation of the world?

Speaker 3 Well, you heard Lee's speech in which he mentioned that China is preparing for external shocks, which is sure to include the possibility of a trade war.

Speaker 3 And we've heard that for some time, China has, for example, been filling up strategic reserves to cope with an emergency, filling up reserves of money, food, fuel, and minerals.

Speaker 3 And at that forum, we heard Premier Li Chang basically telling other countries what they want to hear, which is that, you know, China is a staunch supporter of multilateralism, they're a status quo power, not revisionists, and they're going to try to provide stability in an unstable world.

Speaker 3 And that means keeping its markets open and staying open for business.

Speaker 1 Of course, when we talk with Americans who do business in China, we hear some skepticism about the idea that China is truly that open. They have their own issues with the Chinese market.

Speaker 1 But you mentioned preparations for a trade war. Is China doing other things to strengthen their economy itself?

Speaker 3 Absolutely. They're trying to shift the whole model away from investment and manufacturing towards consumption.
And that's, of course, a big concern of President Trump, too.

Speaker 3 He wants to cut the trade surpluses. But China is doing this for its own reason.
It's not going to be done overnight.

Speaker 3 They're also trying to get foreign investment up, which is what this forum was about.

Speaker 1 Now, you've done some reporting on trying to get private businesses businesses a little more space in China.

Speaker 1 The government made an effort, I know, in recent weeks to pass a law that would assure the rights or at least the privileges of private businesses here. Is that opening for real?

Speaker 1 Is that effort for real?

Speaker 3 Yes, I mean, they're trying, and there are things Premier Lee did not address, like the balance between economic priorities and national security, which is a concern for businesses, and also the rule of law, stronger protections for private entrepreneurs.

Speaker 3 There are no signs of major moves to strengthen the rule of law.

Speaker 1 You know, you've lived here, I want people to know, for decades, ever since the early 1980s, which was the beginning of China's opening to the world.

Speaker 1 You've moved away, but still been pretty nearby in Seoul, and now you're back for an extended visit. What sticks with you?

Speaker 3 Well, I left just before the pandemic, and coming back now, I think the most obvious thing is the decline in people's confidence about the future. But I am seeing small signs of easing.

Speaker 3 For example, we were at the annual session of parliament, and lawmakers were a bit more talkative with foreign journalists.

Speaker 3 And more journalists, including myself, have been able to get in to get short-term visas to report. So these are small but welcome signs of easing.

Speaker 1 Okay, Anthony, it's a pleasure talking with you. Thank you so much.
We'll continue listening for your reporting through the week.

Speaker 3 Thank you, Steve.

Speaker 4 And that's up first for Monday, March 24th. I'm Michelle Martin.

Speaker 1 And I'm Steve Inskeep. The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket.

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Speaker 4 Today's episode of Up First was edited by Alex Leff, Rylan Barton, Rina Advani, Janea Williams, and Mohamed El Bardisi. It was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.

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