Episodes

December 26, 2022

Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary sys...

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December 22, 2022

The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump

As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding...

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December 19, 2022

What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms

Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Le...

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December 15, 2022

Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?

As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis R...

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December 12, 2022

We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022

With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchu...

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December 7, 2022

How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff

The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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December 5, 2022

Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race

Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. Learn more about your ad choi...

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December 1, 2022

Is Democracy All Good Now?

Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 28, 2022

If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?

Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic pri...

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November 21, 2022

How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP

Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 16, 2022

Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?

Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 14, 2022

Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022

Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 10, 2022

When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate

Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned from this election so far. Learn more about your ad choices. V...

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November 8, 2022

The Red Wave Didn't Happen

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come th...

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November 7, 2022

The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk

Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most ...

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November 4, 2022

The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending

The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 2, 2022

How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?

Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoice...

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October 31, 2022

The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge

With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 27, 2022

Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk

In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the res...

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October 24, 2022

How A College Education Divides American Voters

The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, th...

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October 20, 2022

Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs!

Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value — but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast liv...

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October 17, 2022

The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022

The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics...

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October 13, 2022

Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?

Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices...

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October 10, 2022

From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms?

It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of ...

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October 6, 2022

Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?

The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Learn more about your ad choices. Vi...

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October 3, 2022

What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?

The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washin...

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September 29, 2022

There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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September 26, 2022

Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live sh...

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September 22, 2022

Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists?

Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on Octob...

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September 19, 2022

Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the t...

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September 15, 2022

It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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September 12, 2022

Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megapho...

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September 6, 2022

What To Expect Between Now And Election Day

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press c...

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September 1, 2022

Why Sarah Palin Lost

Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica P...

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August 29, 2022

Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?

The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyz...

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August 24, 2022

If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble

Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other...

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August 22, 2022

The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them

What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trump’s actions, the leg...

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August 17, 2022

What Liz Cheney Might Do Next

Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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August 15, 2022

Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change...

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August 10, 2022

Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle

The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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August 8, 2022

Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?

The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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August 3, 2022

Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion

The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and...

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August 1, 2022

All The Political News You Missed Last Week

The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President ...

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July 25, 2022

The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the ...

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July 18, 2022

Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling." Learn mor...

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July 14, 2022

Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?

In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened...

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July 11, 2022

The Supreme Court Episode

With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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July 5, 2022

Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?

The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Flor...

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June 30, 2022

The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!

The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that for...

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June 27, 2022

What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/a...

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June 24, 2022

Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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June 21, 2022

Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. Learn more about your ad choices....

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June 15, 2022

More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. Learn more about your ad choic...

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June 13, 2022

Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this pa...

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June 8, 2022

Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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June 6, 2022

The Democratic Divides In California

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit mega...

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May 31, 2022

Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York a...

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May 25, 2022

Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 23, 2022

Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Learn more about your ad...

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May 18, 2022

What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain th...

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May 16, 2022

Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. Learn mor...

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May 12, 2022

The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Ce...

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May 9, 2022

How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting ...

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May 4, 2022

The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 2, 2022

Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit mega...

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April 28, 2022

How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where th...

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April 25, 2022

Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 21, 2022

Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have ...

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April 18, 2022

How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office?

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. Learn mo...

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April 14, 2022

Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 11, 2022

Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and r...

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April 7, 2022

Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree?

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. Learn more ...

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April 4, 2022

Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the “Parental Rights In Education Bill” -- or what its critics call the “Don’t Say Gay...

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March 31, 2022

How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 28, 2022

Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away?

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. Learn more about your ad choices...

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March 24, 2022

The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. Learn more abou...

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March 21, 2022

The Most Consequential Governor’s Races

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governor’s race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hotte...

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March 17, 2022

What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP?

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Learn more about your ...

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March 14, 2022

The Political Price Of Gas

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life h...

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March 10, 2022

How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 7, 2022

Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia?

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. Learn more about your ad ...

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March 1, 2022

Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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February 28, 2022

Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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February 22, 2022

What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.’...

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February 17, 2022

Is Boris Johnson Finished?

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how Brit...

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February 14, 2022

Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for...

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February 10, 2022

Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blu...

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February 7, 2022

Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean?

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megap...

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February 3, 2022

Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters

Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. Learn ...

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January 31, 2022

The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Learn more about your ad ...

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January 26, 2022

Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring

The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader political environment in a Midterm election year. Learn more about your ad choices. Vi...

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January 24, 2022

Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling." Learn ...

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January 18, 2022

Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw

The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. Learn more about your ad choi...

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January 13, 2022

How Likely Is Another Civil War?

In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of ...

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January 10, 2022

How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out

The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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January 4, 2022

Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point

In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded t...

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December 27, 2021

What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021

The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. Le...

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December 20, 2021

Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better

President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also loo...

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December 13, 2021

How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP?

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polli...

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December 9, 2021

Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump?

Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden t...

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December 6, 2021

Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022

On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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December 2, 2021

What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices appr...

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November 29, 2021

About Those 2024 Polls ...

The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 22, 2021

What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For

The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for...

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November 18, 2021

What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver

Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 15, 2021

The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling

We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.f...

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November 12, 2021

This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change

On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 8, 2021

Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy?

Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They al...

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November 3, 2021

A Good Election Night For Republicans

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm...

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November 1, 2021

Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond

The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or ...

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October 28, 2021

Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond

We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the president’s requests and has ...

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October 25, 2021

What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill?

The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 21, 2021

Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy

Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 18, 2021

What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular?

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the ma...

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October 14, 2021

What Happens When Local News Disappears

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and w...

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October 11, 2021

The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a “good or bad use of polling” on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the mon...

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October 7, 2021

Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 4, 2021

Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone...

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September 30, 2021

How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. Learn more...

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September 27, 2021

Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoice...

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September 23, 2021

What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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September 20, 2021

Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win...

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September 14, 2021

The California Recall Election Wasn't Close

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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September 13, 2021

Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is le...

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September 7, 2021

Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermat...

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September 2, 2021

Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could me...

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August 30, 2021

The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew ...

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August 19, 2021

Model Talk: How Climate Models Work

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of...

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August 16, 2021

What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2...

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August 10, 2021

Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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August 9, 2021

Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/ad...

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August 4, 2021

How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. Learn ...

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August 2, 2021

Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. Learn more about your ad ch...

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July 29, 2021

What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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July 26, 2021

Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a histori...

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July 22, 2021

The Great Inflation Debate

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit...

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July 19, 2021

Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how...

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July 15, 2021

Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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July 12, 2021

A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Vis...

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July 8, 2021

Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit meg...

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July 6, 2021

What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for De...

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July 2, 2021

What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also...

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June 28, 2021

Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth a...

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June 24, 2021

Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and,...

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June 22, 2021

What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. Learn more about your ad ch...

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June 17, 2021

Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how prog...

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June 14, 2021

The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebo...

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June 10, 2021

How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We ...

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June 7, 2021

One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains...

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June 4, 2021

How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this ins...

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June 1, 2021

The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoic...

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May 27, 2021

What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 24, 2021

A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan...

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May 20, 2021

20 Questions With Nate And Galen

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 17, 2021

Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. Learn more about your ad c...

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May 13, 2021

Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full seri...

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May 10, 2021

If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 6, 2021

How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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May 3, 2021

Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 29, 2021

Biden's First 100 Days

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 26, 2021

A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced ...

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April 22, 2021

Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 19, 2021

Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study...

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April 15, 2021

How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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April 12, 2021

Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republican...

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April 8, 2021

Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. Learn more about your ad c...

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April 5, 2021

How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-...

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April 1, 2021

Elections To Watch In 2021

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. Learn more about...

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March 29, 2021

Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 25, 2021

The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Learn more about your...

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March 22, 2021

The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 18, 2021

How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 15, 2021

Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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March 11, 2021

Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan ...

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March 8, 2021

Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen ...

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March 4, 2021

How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research C...

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March 1, 2021

Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. Learn more about your ad choices. Visi...

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February 25, 2021

What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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February 22, 2021

Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when B...

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February 18, 2021

How The Crisis In Texas Happened

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Danie...

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February 16, 2021

Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshap...

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February 11, 2021

The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its lega...

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February 8, 2021

What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. Lear...

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February 4, 2021

What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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February 1, 2021

Biden's Response To The Pandemic

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters. L...

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January 28, 2021

The Final Model Talk Of 2020

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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January 25, 2021

Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ...

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January 20, 2021

The Biden Presidency Begins

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit m...

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January 19, 2021

Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adcho...

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January 13, 2021

Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP...

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January 11, 2021

What Led To The Attack On The Capitol

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone....

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January 6, 2021

What Will The GOP Do Now?

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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January 4, 2021

Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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December 28, 2020

Goodbye To 2020

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit ou...

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December 21, 2020

Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground sta...

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December 17, 2020

What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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December 14, 2020

Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over. Learn ...

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December 10, 2020

What's The Deal With Pardons?

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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December 8, 2020

The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorall...

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December 3, 2020

How To Make Polls Better

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 30, 2020

What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/ad...

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November 23, 2020

Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politic...

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November 19, 2020

Will Georgia Stay Blue?

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 16, 2020

What Divided The Electorate In 2020

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 12, 2020

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 9, 2020

Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 7, 2020

Biden Is Set To Be The Next President

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 5, 2020

Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what ...

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November 4, 2020

Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to an...

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November 3, 2020

The Election Isn't Over

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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November 2, 2020

Final Reflections Before The Election

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoic...

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November 1, 2020

What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 31, 2020

How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 30, 2020

Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win...

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October 29, 2020

The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-c...

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October 28, 2020

How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 27, 2020

How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those pro...

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October 26, 2020

October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 23, 2020

Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 22, 2020

The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 21, 2020

How Voting Is Going So Far

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 20, 2020

The Most Competitive Races In 2020

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 19, 2020

Embrace The Uncertainty

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 16, 2020

Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 15, 2020

What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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October 12, 2020

The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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