Voice Memo: Occupy Gaza?

You are listening to an art media podcast.

Hey, it's Dan.

There's been some developing news from Israel, so I didn't want us to do a full episode on it quite yet.

Instead, we're trying out a new format here by sending Amit and Nadav a voice memo.

Here we go.

Amit Nadav, it's a little after midnight for me in New York on Tuesday, August 5th, which means a little after 7 a.m.

for you in Israel on Tuesday, August 5th.

Over the course of this night here, I saw news that Netanyahu and the government had ordered the IDF to effectively take over Gaza, occupy Gaza in its entirety.

And I just had two quick questions for you.

One, is this just a negotiating tactic, an effort to pressure Hamas diplomatically, politically, to take a deal, a ceasefire deal?

And two, what if Hamas calls Israel's bluff?

What are the practical implications if Israel actually has to go through with it?

Can it go through with it?

Does it have the capacity to go through with it?

Please share your thoughts with me.

I'm eager to hear your quick take on both topics.

Thanks.

So here's the thing.

Everyone then is convinced that Netanyahu is cheating.

But the question is, who is Netanyahu cheating?

Is he trying to talk the right wing out of leaving his government, saying, promising I'm going to attack Gaza soon, to occupy it, everything is going to change?

Or the other way around, and according to which he actually says to Hamas, listen, I'm coming after you, so you better do a mid-term deal, releasing 10 live hostages so I don't have to occupy Gaza.

And I would like to offer a third option that Netanyahu decided after a long, very long term period of time that it is no longer possible for Israel to actually muddle through, that it has to take the decision to either occupy all Gaza, conquer Gaza city, defeat Hamas, or releasing all the hostages and leaving Hamas in power.

That was the very, very difficult decision to make.

But the worst thing to do is to actually do none of the above.

not releasing the hostages because the war is still going on and not defeating Hamas because you're still waiting for a deal.

So, in my opinion, the decision that Netanyahu is trying to promote is to actually occupy Gaza.

I'm not sure that the IDF plans are the same as Netanyahu's.

And since in Israel, the army is very, very strong, and since none of the options that the army have offered over the last few days include occupying all Gaza, so I guess it would still not be the full month.

It would still not be the full occupation of Gaza.

So here's the thing: Israel needs to somehow pressure Hamas into a deal.

Hamas officials are rejoicing at the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

Now, to be fair, this humanitarian crisis is very much the result of mistakes made by the Israeli cabinet, of the Israeli cabinet stopping all food and assistance into the Gaza Strip back at March 2nd and all the way to May 19.

This created or at least escalated a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

And now it's playing into Hamas' hands.

Hamas officials, of course, don't care about the situation, the actual situation of civilians in the Gaza Strip.

And they're seeing the international distress of Israel.

And that's the reason that they're saying between themselves, hey, let's wait and see what happens now that Israel is bleeding internationally and countries are threatening to recognize Palestinian state, a victory for us.

Why should we go now to the type of deal, the type of Witkoff phase deal that the Israelis were discussing?

On the other hand, Israel at this condition, in this difficult spot, wants to get the Witkoff type deal.

I think this is the case.

I don't think that Netanyahu today, if he would be approached by the mediators, by Hamas, and they would tell him, let's go back to releasing just 10 hostages.

I don't think Netanyahu would have said no.

But he is left with no options but to try to have some sort of a credible military threat leveled against Hamas in order to push them.

And the reason he's left with no options is basically because he said again and again no to the Israeli defense apparatus that wanted the type of a deal that will end the war at this stage and will continue the fight later on.

And still, the chiefs of staff are extremely critical of the plan as it is being seen right now.

They do not want to go to a full military occupation of the Gaza Strip.

They will do as they are ordered, but this is a difficult spot for the IDF that feels very worn out.

And this is the reason why now the Netanyahu government is facing probably the worst crisis since the beginning of the war, together with Israel, of course, that as a result of that, is facing the worst crisis internationally since the beginning of the war.

Is it a bluff?

It is a bluff right now, but it can develop to a very real action, one that can tear the Israeli society if it is not agreed in unity.

The idea is not very new.

It's actually releasing Gaza from Hamas, defeating it, eliminating the senior figures, taking the infrastructures, tunnels, LPGRI, etc., and then handing Hamas, ending Gaza story to a new governance system.

The latest idea is a US-based administration with local officials and the representatives from the Emirates, Egypt, etc.

I'm not sure that we'll see the American flag over Gaza soon, but this is the idea.

And then again, the idea of differentiating Hamas from the population.

I'll give you one example.

There is an initiative by ITRAM to have a declaration according to which he promises to fund the recovery of Gaza, rebuilding the infrastructures if Habas surrenders.

And this is one effort to actually differentiate Hamas on the population because now the population knows that the only barrier for a full recovery of Hamas with American taxpayer money is the surrender of Hamas.

Let's hope it succeeds.

All right, thanks, guys.

This is the topic the three of us will be digging into in the days ahead, and that I'll be talking a little bit about in the the first episode of Inside Call Me Back, our new subscriber podcast, which will be released late Wednesday night, early Thursday morning.