NFL Over/Under Win Totals 2025: DRAFT EDITION

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I'm also the NFL's leading husher.

Hush up back there.

Wow.

I might have just set the hushing record.

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You know what's not going to be sad?

This is a big one.

I'm glad to announce it here.

Yeah.

Besides just making sure he's not vaping or eating a hoagie or something like that.

Tennessee Titans over five and a half.

Ooh.

Wow.

Heyo.

Heed the call.

Heed in the call.

Thursday, Dan Hands is here with Mark Sessler, Connor Orr back with us after his midweek sabbatical.

How are you, Connie?

It's good.

You just refer to it like it's a medical issue when, like, I miss you guys on the day that I'm not here.

I'm excited to come back.

Yeah, we don't like to talk about medical issues, but it was a...

What did you deem it as a urethral cleanout?

Was that what it was?

I did.

I did have a tooth fallout

the day that you guys were taping that I wasn't here.

I was just sitting on a chair eating popcorn and a tooth just fell out of my head.

It's not visible, thank God, but I don't think I'm going to do anything about it.

Like the classic,

the full-on tooth, or like a chipped

aspect of it.

That's intense.

That's almost like the comical thing where someone's turning into a zombie and first just the tooth falls out when you're sitting at rest, and then all of a sudden your arm falls off while you're crossing the street.

It's like, uh-oh, problem.

When it's your time, it's your time.

But I

don't, I'm now just wondering if there's anything I have to do about it.

Implants seem expensive.

It's not that uncomfortable.

Do I just do I just roll with it?

So time will tell.

All right.

So I do want to circle back though, real quick.

Like, did the entire root of the tooth come out of the, like, deep into your mouth area?

I was working with a, I had a half of one one

because it had, I had like a root canal.

This is really going to hook the listeners right off the top.

Go on.

Right.

Yeah.

Pretty below bar.

What is this show about?

Click off.

You asked me.

Below bar dentist, bad root canal, tooth cracked in half.

Decided to just roll with it because it felt good.

And then the other half just came tumbling out.

Tough.

Sorry to go then.

Glad that you're with us, though.

And the rest of your mouth is in order.

Let's see.

See,

this is a good one i love this show it's been on a bit of a sabbatical itself um and the stakes are sky hard sky high it's the over unders wins prediction and i know a lot of people when when these over unders first come out people jump all over it for content during the the slow cycle but we like to let it marinate a little bit you know we let we like to to jump in uh during this time of the calendar um

and that's what we're gonna do here and i know uh mark this especially for you there's got to be some pressure.

You did something that no one had ever done before in this exercise.

Previously, you went 0-4 in 2023.

And then during our own sabbatical last summer, big sabbatical show,

we did not have a show to do this.

So you've been sitting with that for two years.

So I imagine this is, you've been doing a lot of research and you want to get this right and be really re-entrench yourself as a top 10 insider.

I have no additional confidence that I'll achieve anything more this time around, but I will say that it's a classic,

I wouldn't say a trope, but a classic element of this show that we say that no one else ever went 0-4.

That is probably nonsense.

We've not researched that.

It's just that when I did go 0-4, it became a humoristic lever that we pulled like once a show to remind everyone that I don't know anything.

So that's the area you want to get out of.

Fair enough, fair enough.

And this is a show that because we're going to each make four picks and we want to keep the show moving and keep it like going at a clip where it feels like, you know, there's momentum to the show.

That's why we're welcoming back one of our great friends, Dave Damaschek.

What's up, Shaq?

There is no one who knows how to keep to the clock.

Like, I don't know who.

I don't know.

Anyway, all I know is this.

It's a pleasure to see you.

Congratulations to everybody on,

you know, crawling through the river of shit and coming through clean on the other side.

I think that reflects the state of the football fan right now, too.

We've made it through the offseason of shit, and here we are.

It's time for a kickoff.

All I'm going to say is, just before we got going here, someone was throwing the C-word around pretty good.

And that's all I'm going to say about it.

That's all I'm going to say because we got to keep it tight.

I love it.

She, by the way, I don't know if people are aware of this.

I think they are, though, because the promotional arm has been going pretty good.

Because Shek who my arm.

That's my arm doing it.

Shek is now in the Dan Lebetard universe with a brand new show.

I knew it was Football America, which is a great name, but then I learned right before we started via Shek, it's Football America.

There's a slammer at the end.

How about that?

That's correct.

And I think that says everything.

You know, your pal and my pal, Mark Sessler, took to social media earlier this week to express something that I sincerely believe.

It's okay to be enthusiastic.

It's okay for it to be fun, everybody.

If all we're here to do is to read the analytics into the microphone, isn't that basically the equivalent of using AI to generate your paintings?

You're not really doing anything.

Just cut out the middle, man, and have the AI voice read the analytics into the microphone, and then all of us can be out of our job.

In the meantime, you should have really introduced me as Taylor Swift.

We would have gotten better numbers on today's episode.

And by the way, I know, Mark, this connects with you.

The show title, you're a big fan of the Stars and Stripes and Patriotism.

So, Football America, I know, Mark, you're

well, I think the title is, Dave, you've done a great job there.

Again, this is a false narrative about my name.

I hear a parody song coming.

And I'm not a football American.

Well, I knew at least I know Jameis.

I don't know.

Is he still in the Rolodex?

He's still alive.

So that's a start.

It's a one-man houseband.

Yeah.

Shek, awesome to have you, bud.

Thank you.

Thank you.

What about you?

There was a

we have to get into this, but there was the actual pics here.

But there was a minor, what I thought to be a...

a misunderstanding that you thought that there was someone at our old place of business, NFL Media, that I saw as a mentor,

who was not a mentor, but we, in all sincerity, view Shek as a mentor.

And Shek gave us our start with

the debate club on the back of the Dave Damshek football program and our NFL media days.

And

so, Shek, you are always a man that we adore having on the program.

We would not be here right now on this show,

this group of us, if you had not kicked that door open for us.

I genuinely believe that.

And I always will.

Never been more scared in my life

than being down in the newsroom as a 31-year-old guy that had never spoken into a microphone before,

working at a part-time copy editor.

And Shek

called me upstairs late.

It was like a 5 p.m.

on a Tuesday.

Newsroom's quiet.

This is before we kind of even built out the newsroom.

And said, hey, do you want to come on and kibbits about, I would imagine, the Jets or something?

And I was like, first of all, I knew like this is all I want to do.

But then going in there, I could still visualize the lights in that old closet in Culver City, how bright they were, and being scared out of my wits.

But Dave saw something in us, and

I love you, buddy.

And if you listen to the early, like the first times we were ever on that show, I think I was like, I think Jason, Pierre, Paul will have a nice season.

It was like literally no idea what I was doing, you know?

I mean, so we all agree then.

Mistakes were made by by me way back when, and now we have to all live with them.

So listen, what a pleasure.

Obviously, you guys presented immediately with your pages before I even heard your voices.

I was reading your little write-ups, and that's why I said to you, you guys are great because you're giving the news as required, but you always sprinkle in a little bit of mirth right at the end of those things.

And that always broke through for me.

And obviously,

I was right in predicting your success, your future success.

So congratulations to you guys.

But more importantly, it's not that you're bringing me on now, but if you heard the Greg Olson, by the way, Greg Olson, episode two, guest on Football America coming up on Friday.

Plug.

That's right.

I'm a pros pro.

He talks to Tom Brady, and Brady, a little bit like a mob guy, is like, hey, as long as you and I are good, I don't care what anybody else.

I'll do anything for you because you've been helpful to me.

Who's got the more juice?

Tom Brady has the more juice in that conversation.

So it's sort of like, let's not get sideways because you've been good to me.

Now I may call on you for a favor one day.

But either way,

I mean, I don't know.

Connie, do you have something to add to that?

No, I think like sometimes I just, you know, you make a noise to just signify that you're in the background.

Yeah.

I didn't say, hey, you guys should come on the show so that one day you would bring me on your very successful show 15 years later.

But it is nice to know that there are people out there who recognize,

you know, where they came from.

Not I had nothing to do with your success, obviously, but that you feel and are like, let's bring Dave on.

That's what makes things go, especially in a world in which

it is getting ever-limited who's allowed to talk into a microphone and who people want to listen to.

That's fair.

We got to boost each other up here.

Enough of this love fest.

Let's get into it.

This is how it's going to work, okay?

So check out Football America with Dave Damishk, wherever you get your podcast.

This is how it's going to work.

We're doing a draft style, okay?

And we're all going to make our selections, four picks each.

If obviously, if one is taken, you can't take that same team unless you go the opposite.

So, if someone takes the Ravens over, but you have the Ravens under, you can grab that.

And we'll do it snake draft style.

And I have this New York Knickerbockers hat, and I have all four names in it.

Yeah, we'll cycle back in early in 26.

Can you believe it?

26 to see how everyone did.

Mark, a lot of pressure on Tessler.

Big spot.

All right, here we go.

I'm going to shuffle it.

I'm not cheating.

She Shek, should the first name be out of the hat?

The first pick or the fourth?

The first.

What's the...

Oh, I see.

You're going NBA rules here, NBA draft lottery.

I think the first one.

Let's cut to the chip.

This is the first pick.

Here we go.

First pick is

the con man.

All right.

Come on.

Second pick,

the Zuzzer.

I like exactly the way this is going.

I want to be last.

Third pick.

Handicap me.

Shek.

Okay.

I kind of like your spot, Sese.

Fourth pick, because you get the snake.

See, so there you go.

Con, Zuz, Shek, Storm.

Let's get into it, Connor.

Roll.

All right.

I'm pretty excited because there was one in particular that I thought I had to have, and I didn't know if it would fall to me any later than one.

And that is San Francisco over 10.5,

which is something that has only cemented my confidence with all the issues going on with Matthew Stafford's back.

We don't know how many weeks he's going to play.

I think that they're going to coast.

They have the easiest schedule in the NFL since the 2015 Falcons.

A total regifting after they got smashed last year by the committee.

Christian McCaffrey is healthy, and I think this team is going to roll.

Wow.

That's very interesting.

I was

months ago, we did a little game, Mark.

You had a great like Red Sox 0-4 comeback on me.

We did a little over-under game during the depths of the offseason.

And

the decider was the Niners, where we were guessing over-unders.

I couldn't believe the Niners were set at 10.5.

It felt so high to me.

And yet you see them as over.

Shaq, where do you stand on the Niners?

Obviously, Vegas sees them as a team that's going to have the big bounce back year, but they also are a team that,

you know, is coming off disappointment.

The wide receiver room's in flux, obviously.

McCaffrey is no, it's no given he's going to be the same guy when he comes back.

Sala's in there now to run the D.

That's a good thing, I think.

But I don't know.

That's an interesting one for the first pick.

Wow.

Well, you just ended with

what I think is perhaps the most important detail is Bob Sala.

We have seen this weird thing

play out over and over again, which is that some cats out there are more leaders of men and vibes guys for the whole 53, and then other guys are technicians who really get the X's and O's.

It would appear at least, I don't know how much you can take from the Jets experience, but we do know that Bob Sala with the Niners tuning up that defense yields results.

And so I think that's big.

And Kyle Shanahan decided, he's the QB whisperer, right?

He's one of the four or five that actually exist on the planet Earth right now.

He could have let Brock Purdy go.

He said, pay that man his money.

Paid, by the way, the worst high-end actor performance ever that we don't talk nearly enough about rounders, John Malkovich, like paid me in his money.

What a what?

Paid that man his money.

He tried.

Where are you from, man?

It was like we just talked about Oceans 11, Cheadle, going with the British accent.

That didn't work out very well, the Cockney accent.

You toss us.

You had one job to do.

Malkovich, a masterful actor, but just outside his range, perhaps.

Paid it men, paid it men, his money.

Where do you think you're from in this scenario, Malkovich?

Either way, I lost track of my thought, but he did say pay Brock Purdy that money.

That has to mean something.

The receiver thing matters, but it is slightly overstated this millennium of the importance of the high-end number one wide receiver in terms of who gets to and wins Super Bowls.

Okay.

I do like that the Niners have lost so many coordinators that they have no choice but to have some of them now return to do the same thing they once did.

Like, that's where we're at with the Niners.

Let's stick a pin in the Niners because they might, they might come up again.

Yeah.

But I'm going to go up.

I'm next, and this is, I'm running, I'm running to the podium with this one

because

it's been a few years, Shaq.

You know, we used to have the team of ATN.

The team of HTC, in my mind,

is the Denver Broncos.

So, how can I not pound the table and take the Broncos Broncos over nine and a half in a big spot here?

Oh, God.

I really, I fully believe in Bonix.

I think that he is going to take that next step.

Bonix,

I think the thing that surprised me the most in the NFL, because I remember watching him early in the season, he had a game against the Jets where he could not hit the broadside of a barn, and it looked like his hands were too small.

And it was like, ah, what a reach.

But then Sean Payton really got on the same page with his young quarterback.

And then that defense obviously got better and better.

And then what did they do?

They go out and draft a cornerback and Baron.

They add Drake Greenlaw, my guy, Hufanga.

They bring back DJ Jones as that run stuffer.

They add more depth to the running back room.

And that defense.

ranked first in EPA per play last season.

So I believe that, you know, what's the old, we talked about it with the FTN football almanac.

They talk about the plexiglass principle.

Sometimes those things can reflect downward, but I don't think that's going to be anything worse than a very good defense.

And I could see Peyton and Knicks together taking that offense to the next step.

I like them as like actually challenging the Kansas City Chiefs with around 11 wins.

So I'm banging the over nine and a half.

Banging it.

Who disagrees?

Anybody?

The only thing that starts to concern me with the Broncos is that everyone is saying this now.

It's more just a sports thing.

Like, everyone is just presuming that the Broncos win 11 or 12 games.

And it's like,

let's get out of the narrative discourse and just talk about this team and how good they looked last year.

Sessler is right, though.

Too many people in on this.

Yes.

They have a devastating defense.

Like, I think they can squeeze the life out of a lot of the teams they confront.

And if you get Bo Nix in year two growing even more comfortable in this offense,

we've got weapons.

And I see where you're coming from.

I don't really disagree.

It's just like everyone's saying it now.

That's a me thing.

I'm also wary of a team that whatever puts them over the edge in our minds collectively took place during free agency, right?

And if it's a guy that's on the near 30 or on the wrong side of 30 or has already had a couple of NFL years, those full healthy seasons are just not really even in the purview in terms of, hey, this is possible.

I mean, these guys could be wiped out by week two.

And I know that you can say that about anybody, but in particular, free agent teams where that's the one thing in our mind that just kind of pushes them over the edge.

It just does scare me a little bit.

That's why I stayed away from Denver.

Can I just, okay, that's fair.

Can I just say something, Mark, that on last show, we kind of made the rule because Justin had been distracting us backstage first with the giant bite of the open-faced turkey and egg white sandwich.

And then he took money out of the show by ripping on a giant vape.

Then I made the rule that turn off the camera when you take a bite of the sandwich.

And yet now when the camera turns off, I can't think about anything else other than what's happening with the camera off.

And look, look, he's got something in his mouth.

Right.

And for us,

if you're wondering what we're talking about, it's like we can see everyone, including Justin, on the screen that we broadcast in front of.

And I agree, when he goes off cam, I see it as a technical issue or something disturbing is occurring.

I'm just like,

me and the wife and another couple went to see weapons last night.

Absolutely stellar horror film.

Loved it.

Uh, I can't recommend it enough, but it's one of those movies where buckle up because you're in a dark house and you have the view turn in the corner.

I can't stop thinking about when that screen goes dark, what's happening, what's when that screen turns on.

So it's not even Justin's fault because we asked him to do that.

But well, it is all it all tracks back to something that could be charged as Justin's fault on some level if if you want to think about it from that angle.

I will say two things.

First of all, see Dan

practicing hyper-awareness with his surroundings.

What caught my ear, and I'm not going at the con man here, what caught my ear is I am fascinated by that there are three words in the English language, wary,

weary,

and leery.

Leary and weary mean the same thing.

Weary obviously means tired.

And yet, when people try to use one of those three words, somehow 98% of the time they choose the wrong one.

And the con man just said, I'm weary of the Broncos.

Like, are you tired of them?

I mean, I am.

Yeah.

Oh, you're tired of them.

Okay, well, so I retract the whole thing.

So he was tired of them.

I thought he was wary of predicting a team's going to lose.

I wasn't an or dig in a big spot.

It wasn't a dig.

I'm just saying I'm fascinated by it because it happens to everybody.

Everybody does it except for Dave Damaschek.

Now, Shaq, you're on the clock.

Don't tell me.

I'll do what I need.

Now listen to me.

The Broncos are, what is interesting is not just everybody knows at this point that you want the guy at QB on his rookie deal.

That's when you can really make your hay.

But I don't know if people know how extreme it is.

Two-thirds of the quarterbacks, if you go seasons two through six,

get there twice as likely as QBs in season seven through 14.

It is a massive difference to have your, to not just have the answer, but to have him before he starts getting paid as such.

Year two is the best year, believe it or not, for starting quarterbacks to get to the Super Bowl this millennium.

So Bo Knicks is in a good spot in that regard.

All right, you're up, Shaq.

Third pick.

I don't want to do this one.

Sincerely, I don't.

The Pittsburgh Steelers at eight and a half over is the perennial.

They got you.

They got you.

I didn't think they were going to get you.

I didn't think Rodgers was going to get you.

What do you mean get me?

I don't care who the quarterback is.

You could be the quarterback, Dan.

They would still go over that eight and a half.

They always do.

Duck Hodges, Ben Rothlisberger, when he could no longer walk,

you know, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett teaming up.

They're always going to get the nine or 10 wins no matter what.

Why would this year be any different?

Yeah.

This is coming from obviously someone who was a little bit close to it with Aaron Rodgers last year, but I actually think he is the reason.

I feel like that he has that type of

transformative power in the negative at this stage of his career to be the one guy who can mess up this streak.

I don't think he's going to play well with others because that's not how he does it.

This, all this, like, Tomlin Rodgers love fest makes me laugh.

The Arthur Smith Aaron Rodgers thing seems messy.

They traded away

their most talented guy.

They brought in a wide receiver.

They brought in, obviously, Metcalf.

We'll see about that.

Is Metcalf even the same guy he was three years ago?

I don't know, Shaq.

I think that we'll be looking back at this as something that can get Mike Tomlin fired rather than something that gets the Steelers closer to the Super Bowl.

Because certainly

the way they've spent and the way that they've chased players, they believe themselves to be a team that could be playing in the AFC title game.

I don't think they're anywhere close to that.

I mean, I happen to agree with everything you said and still know that the floor is high so long as Mike Tomlin is

at the wheel.

I mean,

the problem is the other side of it is how far he's capable of taking teams against high-end competition in December and more importantly in January.

But

what you know is solid is the ground floor with Mike Tomlin.

Like I say, I hear

all your concerns and the things you're pointing out there.

The defense, though, practically should be mighty.

I mean, Broncos, Texans, Pittsburgh, those might be your three best defenses in the conference this year.

I think if you want the Steelers to win nine games,

they'll win nine games.

If you want them to win 10, they'll win nine.

Like, that's just how this works.

And I don't see a reason why they're drastically different than last year's team.

They've been through a river of quarterback chaos for half a decade now, and Aaron Rodgers does not take away from them.

I understand you've got some PTSD potentially on the Aaron Rodgers front team.

He doesn't take away.

In fact, it's not a river of quarterback.

He's a tsunami that swallows up everything in his path.

And I do think he'll have actually, and he's old now, obviously.

I think the...

The decline of him to being kind of a league average actual player combined with everything else, I think that's where the old principle we talked about: some people bring things to the table, some people just sit at the table, and then there's some people like, oh, where's the salt shaker?

I took it off.

Like, oh,

where's that fork?

It's gone.

I think Rogers is at the stage as a player where he's taking things off the table.

Well, you got two games.

You're not going to be able to do the difference between nine and eight and eight and nine.

You got two games against the Browns, and there's a couple other gimme's in there.

I just, I think it's like it's a 17-game season.

And this whole over-under thing, it's like, I don't think you have to be a quality to high-quality team to win nine games

in 2025.

I just don't.

And I think that they're kind of just in the middle of the pack.

I don't want to belabor it because obviously I talk too much Steelers as it is.

And I've said this a thousand times this offseason, but you brought up horror movies.

The thing I keep saying about it is, did Mike Tomlin not see sinners or extract the main message of the movie?

You don't invite the culture-sucking vampire inside the building.

He wants to turn your culture into his and put his culture onto you.

And that's clearly underway here.

They have to get through this year and come through clean on the other side.

I have legitimate concerns that you're expressing there, Dan.

I do think, though, I side with Sessler.

17 games.

They're going to get to nine games at minimum.

How about you, Connor?

Where do you fall on this one?

See, I have said time and time again that I think that Aaron is properly understood outside of football, but misunderstood inside of football.

And that just comes from speaking to people in that Jets building, even very recently, about how much they actually enjoyed having him around.

And so I think nine or 10 wins is smart.

I'm almost more dubious as to why a Vegas team, like there was that bet a couple of years ago where there was a guy betting like $100,000 a night on LeBron James scoring more than 10 points because it had happened every single game for like five and a half years.

Why all of a sudden is a sports book dipping below, putting the Steelers below 500 when in all other shapes and forms, like Dave said, Duck Hodges, they were a little bit more optimistic of them.

You know what?

It's people like me and the general discourse around Rodgers.

People are so exhausted and kind of just don't like him and they think he's going to poison the well.

It's people like me.

They bait you.

They bait you.

I mean, that's part of what Vegas is trying to do.

Ceci, you're up.

All right, running to the podium.

And one of the reasons that I fail at this exercise, notably, is that I do this with my heart versus logic, but I am banging the Falcons over 7.5 wins.

I love the idea that you've got one of the most exciting backfields in all of football with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Algier.

If you look at the three starts that Michael Pennex, I know he was incorrectly named on a news show as something else this morning, but if you look at Michael Pennex and his three starts, that offense offense started to cook.

96 points in those three games.

I think he can throw the ball in any way you want him to.

He's powerful.

He looked comfortable.

There are a lot of weapons on that offense.

The defense has improved.

You play in the NFC South, and you're telling me that they're only going to win seven games?

I totally disagree.

I think they're a massive contender to win the division.

At least vie with the Buccaneers for the top of the NFC South.

I'm hitting the over on that one with a hammer.

All right.

I'm cool with that.

The only thing that I always perennially push back on is beware of small sample sizes in late December and early January.

But I'm not even strong on this with Penix because he looked enough of the part where you're allowed.

You're allowed if you're a Falcons fan to have enthusiasm and excitement.

And I kind of agree with everything else you said.

Connor, I think the Falcons in general, I'm dubious of them organizationally ever getting things right.

But at seven and a half, this feels like a doable over.

I'm in.

I think it's a doable over.

And just like you guys made the point with Sala coming back to San Francisco, if Sala was not available to go back to the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan's A choice was Jeff Ulbrich.

He wanted Jeff Ulbrick as his DC for years before when Ulbric was the DC with the Jets.

And so I think that there is definitely some room to grow there because that Falcons defense was lost in the woods last year.

That was not Jeff Ulbricht's fault what happened with the the Jets last year and then getting promoted as interim coach.

He's very good and qualified.

Jen you flecked a little bit too much to one Aaron Rodgers, like in the, in the in the defense room, like, hey, guys, you see that throw that guy made?

He's on our team now.

Settle down, Leonard.

Let's go.

Let Jets fans have the pre-Achilles.

You know what?

I don't need it.

I don't want it.

Let Jets fans have that summer before the Achilles blew up because that was a special summer.

I just wanted to say, I just wanted to say, because I don't need to be redundant with Sessler and the rest of your points,

I love this pick.

It was my third pick on the board there was the Falcons.

I think, and by the way, as you mentioned there, Sessler,

take a look at the neighborhood that they're in.

I mean, there's no guarantee that Bryce Young's going to get it right this year.

Who knows what becomes of the Panthers?

We know the Saints are going to stink.

I think there's a chance for the Falcons this year.

All right, Cesi,

snakes to you.

This feels like another fatal flaw of mine, but I am going to hit the Jets going over 5.5.

Nice.

I'll tell you why.

Number one, I think this is a team that has genuinely.

Don't put that on my team, Sesame.

No, they've genuinely changed.

I think Aaron Glenn simply will not allow them to win less than six games.

So all we're asking them to do is go to win six games.

I think you've got a good offensive line.

You've got some legit stars on this team.

We're built for this shit.

That's right.

And Justin Fields, like, if he stays healthy and

if you can coach him the way that we've we've seen him in spurts, like the Jets are going to win six games or more.

Like, I actually think this is a pretty good team and has been a pretty good team that's been mismanaged, poorly coached, run into nightmare scenarios, and just been the Jets.

But Aaron Glenn to me is a change agent.

And I simply think that they're going to look different to us.

And I'm optimistic about 5.5 being like you could suck complete butt and win five games.

So it's like winning six is not that hard in today's NFL.

I'm so jealous.

I thought this was a great pick.

This was my next pick.

And the reason why, seven wins last year with a quarterback who was worse in terms of advanced stats than Justin Fields was, and a quarterback who completely sucked your running game into a vacuum and took it off the field of play.

Now you have a run game that's going to be married to a mobile quarterback who we've already seen scoring rushing touchdowns in the preseason.

If Fields can stay healthy, I think this is no-brainer.

You're in a division with the Miami Dolphins, who are free-falling.

The New England Patriots are a hot team this summer, but are not unbeatable when you look at the New York Jets.

I think this is a lot.

I think it's a good thing.

I'm in stayaway because they are my team.

But

these are points that are similar to what I was making, I guess, a couple of shows ago about

you don't have to squint to see a path to the offense being much more functional post-Rodgers, and the defense, I think, will be better this year as well.

Shek, can you give me a little, I know it was a small sample size for you as well before before they turned to Russell Wilson, but Fields was obviously there last year in Pittsburgh.

What were your thoughts on what you saw from him when he was on the field?

Well, he was misused is the main thing that my takeaway was.

Obviously, his primary virtue as a quarterback or at any other position on offense is running the ball.

And they just did not give him those opportunities to do it.

They obviously should have gone back.

I said, at the height of the Russell Wilson experience 2024, when it looked like he he was the change agent, as you would say, Dan, in a positive sense with the Steelers, I said, this is not going to work out.

And they should really be going back to Justin Fields in time for the playoffs because at minimum, it's going to cost you Justin Fields, who should have been the bridge quarterback in 2025.

And yet here we are.

Yeah, I think if you run him around and that offensive line should be

an asset.

And they have the running backs behind them.

I think they should be able to bang some teams around a little bit, running the ball, especially with Justin Fields there.

So

I love this one too, Sessler.

I think you got it exactly right.

That was my number five pick there.

Optimism around Sese in a big spot.

I like that Hanzus was like,

over five and a half.

Don't you put that voodoo on me?

You're picking him to go six and 11, Dan.

That wouldn't be a.

I know, but it's been 14 years, Dan.

I know.

It's sad.

It is sad for you.

You know what's not going to be sad?

This is a big one.

I'm glad to announce it here.

He's just making sure he's not vaping or eating a hoagie or something like that.

Tennessee Titans over five and a half.

I do not think they are.

I don't think they're world beaters in 2025.

I think

they did get the guy.

I think I said this the last time I was here on the show with you guys.

The Aaron Rodgers, what's going to happen to him storyline, and boy, the 2026 draft class is even better.

And I don't know about this group.

And all of that has added up to this lack of attention being paid to Cam Ward, who just about, I keep saying he won the Heisman.

And then I remember, oh, yeah, no, Travis Hunter took it from him at the end.

Either way, Cam Ward's the real deal.

This guy is going to be a real good NFL QB.

And he's in, you know, it's not insane.

The conference is loaded up, so it's hard to make a case for a team like the Titans getting into the postseason, but it's not insane to think that they could win the South.

Look at the other teams in there.

You can make a case for them as well.

But is it insane after the Jaden Daniels experience?

You'd have to have amnesia.

The commies were a punchline.

They drafted a quarterback.

Voila, they're in the title game.

Why would that not be on the board for the Tennessee?

During the Shek Bonner.

Well, Dave has done something very smart, which is if you do anything pro-Titans, it becomes the social clip that gets sent out and used.

And it's the show T's, you know, everything.

We're all locked in now.

Take that off the post-production to-do list, Gravy.

6-11?

What are we talking about?

I do want to, if we're going to talk about the visual with Justin,

that pick was made while the little Titans helmet was not rotating behind him.

That could be a little bit of a whammy.

We had a power outage yesterday during a rainstorm, and the helmet snapped to the top of the magnet and scared the the shit out of you.

That's not ominous at all.

Speaking of weapons.

Holy shit.

All right, I'm up.

Wait, Connor has something to say.

Oh, Conman, go ahead.

His mic would have to be on to say.

Silent assassin.

We can assume he's agreeing with me, right?

Can we just stop saying that no one is talking about the Titans and say

that the reason that no one is talking about the Titans is because they're doing nothing worthy of being talked about?

Like the quarterback, arguably, out of all the young quarterbacks in the NFL, had the worst preseason debut.

He threw the worst pass out of any of the rookie quarterbacks that I watched this past weekend.

Do cool shit, and we'll talk about you at the end.

Sorry.

Wow, I guess I shouldn't have brought up the weary thing.

I don't know.

I don't know a sec if you, if you're aware, but it's not like we needed one nationally, but there is like a

national Titans hater, and it happens to be Connor, and our producer is the one Titans fan I've ever met.

So it's a nice little dichotomy on our show.

Yeah, some tension.

All right, I'm up.

Let's keep moving.

I'm going to stay in this division.

I'm glad it's still here.

I'm very happy.

I'm banging.

I am pounding

the under on the Indianapolis Colts.

And I can't believe it's still here.

I mean,

what am I missing here?

This has been one of the most milquetoast, boring,

non-competitive teams in recent seasons.

And they obviously are sitting on a massive bust in Anthony Richardson.

It took a while for the

national,

you know, the football cognizante

to see what this show saw early last year, that this guy's not the guy.

But they're kind of roped in.

So they're like, all right, we're going to go one more year, as you must, as someone who's been through Zach Wilson and 100 other quarterbacks.

You kind of got to go into year three and be like, all right, let's kind of hitch the wagons.

But then they handcuffed him with Daniel Jones, who stinks.

So you got two bad quarterbacks, two injury-prone bad quarterbacks.

And unless you're going to say that Lou Anarumo is going to come from Cincinnati and be this huge difference maker and in a division that's a little bit milquetoast.

And I see you shaking your head, Connor, so it's getting me a little nervous that they're going to lift the boats here.

I think this is going to be potentially the worst offense in football.

That's how bad I think the Colts can be,

because that's what I think about the quarterback room and how it could submarine the entire season.

So bang the under on seven and a half.

I think this is a 5-12 team and I'm coasting to 2-0.

Go ahead, Connor.

God,

so

the Colts have been the points leader in the division each of the last two years with a combination of Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson.

Anthony Richardson.

What division is this again?

Anthony Richardson, as we've discussed last year, was one of the worst quarterbacks in like modern NFL history from a clean pocket.

Even if you replace him with the highly mediocre Daniel Jones and you improve defensive coordinator, I don't see how you go backwards from where they were before, which is what we're doing.

Well, who's the third string quarterback?

Because we're going to see him too for three to six games.

Riley Leonard from Notre Dame, one of my preseason teams.

Oh, no.

I keep on walking into him.

We got the Notre Dame guy in Connor.

Let's go.

And you're also a big steichen guy, as I believe, Connor.

Like, I feel like this is one of your weird pet teams.

And so although I highly respect your football acumen in this case I think you're too close to the Colts so I don't this doesn't wait I'm not wavering on this and I'm not weary I didn't like being lost and and arguing fighting in a in a fender bender with Connor or I'm more in a comfy place parking my car in the same garage with him I am a stiking guy too, and I am even more so a Lou Annarumo guy.

The results maybe don't match up with like, man, those mighty Bengals defenses when they were going to Super Bowls and getting close to getting there.

That's because the pieces weren't great, but he made lemonade out of the orange-colored lemon there in Cincinnati, and he's going to do the same in Indianapolis this year.

It was weird, in fact, that the Bungles reacted to it, like, yeah, fire that guy.

Um, I think they're going to benefit from that.

And don't forget about Jonathan Taylor in that backfield with in a team that you would presume is going to try to lean on the defense and beat you up a little bit on the ground.

Yeah, they're going to have like 10 in the box like every single down with this passing attack.

It's going to be.

And Taylor is not always saying healthy.

I feel good.

Here's the thing.

Here's the thing.

The only thing that would make me nervous, the schedule is pretty nice for them, especially the first six weeks.

They better, they better bank at least three.

They better get out of the first weeks, first six weeks, three and three, or I'm coasting to a dub here.

Home Miami, home Denver, it'll be tricky.

At Tennessee, at Rams, that might have Jimmy G a quarterback.

Home Raiders, home Cardinals.

That's the first six weeks.

You got to do a little business there.

If you can be four and two there, I'm in deep trouble.

But if you go three and three, two and four or less, I'm feeling great.

I think this was a daring pick because we each had to do four of these.

And so I came up with my list of 16

just in case, you know, whatever disaster would occur here.

But I did not touch the Colts.

I thought that's one of the more confounding teams to pick an over-under for because I am a Steichen guy.

And I think Daniel Jones

could actually piece together a pretty good season under Steichen.

And I think there's pieces on this offense.

We cut that for later.

I also see the other side of it where he could be a disaster or get injured.

He doesn't have to do that.

He had five good weeks his entire career.

He had five good weeks and got him paid.

And the Giants was the biggest mistake the Giants made until Saquon Barkley, who left the goddamn organization because they paid Daniel Jones.

One of the worst.

I don't think he is.

One of the worst business transactions made in the last 25 years is that the Giants getting suckered into Daniel Jones.

He can't play.

We'll see because

I disagree with you on that front that he's completely done and fried.

And I think the mistake would be trying to make something out of Anthony Richardson if we know within a week or two that that's not going to work.

I agree with that, but you don't know that he isn't going to turn the corner in year three, as young as he is.

Every journey is not the same as Jaden Daniels day one

ascending to the heavens.

Connor Orr, though, very quickly, Rams, if it is like Stafford ain't going to go, isn't it Kirk Cousins time, right?

Isn't that the move they make?

I actually checked on this recently.

The Falcons asking price for cousins is still ridiculous to the point where teams are just like, you're not being serious when we call you.

And I'm not saying the Ramsay.

Would Raheem play kinder with the Rams, knowing his ties there?

And I mean, we know Kyle Shannon has a cousin's fetish.

I mean,

that makes sense.

But would Raheem want him in the conference when he has aspirations to

hopefully make a deep title run?

Shaq, I also capital Jay Gerno this one and reached out to Jordan Rodrigue, who knows the Rams better than anyone.

And she said McVay loves Jimmy G.

They love him.

They totally believe in him

if it comes to it.

Interesting.

Great insight.

Conman.

So I had to do this one on the fly just based on how the board is falling, but I'm pretty surprised that the Saints are still sitting there at 5.5.

I'm going to whack the under on that one.

Yeah, that's a good one.

You're starting, at best, your second round pick who came after

Jackson Dart and Cam Word sucks.

And no, just kidding.

And

I think that you have a brand new head coach.

You were the last team basically to settle on a head coach.

And so you didn't really necessarily get your pick of the litter there.

This is a veteran team that I think could kind of fall apart.

My all 272 predictions went live on SI.com today.

Ooh, check it out, everybody.

Yeah, I have it.

It's three

wins.

Three, yeah.

What is it, five and a half?

Five and a half feels rich for you've got no you've got no overt starting level quarterback and you're about to get your ass kicked by about 14 teams

i like this one if it was four and a half which i think it was earlier in the in the offseason i would have hesitated but yeah five and a half i don't i just don't see them getting to six wins the way going to be.

If they swept the Panthers, which they won't, I guarantee they won't.

Try to find me a couple other wins on that schedule.

I don't know, man.

They're going to be terrible, but I kind of want them to

play themselves out of the first overall pick because if Arch Manning does, in fact, sit there, and I don't care what Archie says or anybody else, if the Saints were the worst team in the NFL, Arch would certainly announce because of the opportunity of completing the Manning Circle of going from Archie Manning with the Saints to his two sons growing up, or sons all growing up in New Orleans, in NOLA, and then rounding it out with Arch taking over for Grand Pappy.

And they took Tyler Shuck.

You didn't have to do that.

Why did you do it?

Why wouldn't you just treat it all as a red shirt to try and get Arch in 26?

Very weird.

Connor, back to you.

All right.

I have one that I am hanging on to for the last pick, which I positive is going to be there.

So I'm not worried about it.

I'm going Dallas, and I'm taking the Cowboys over seven and a half.

Jerry Jones is ridiculous and completely unserious.

However, this team was a seven-win team a year ago that beat the Commanders once and almost beat them a second time.

Their offensive line can't get worse than it was.

And you still, if your tent pole players are healthy, still have a top 10 quarterback, a top five wide receiver.

And if Micah Parsons gets signed, which he will the day of the season, season opener, he's going to be an 11 to 15 sack guy.

And I think that all combines together with two games a year against some of the worst teams in the division.

I think they're an easy lock for eight wins at least.

Easy lock, huh?

The George Pickens, we brought him up earlier with the Steelers.

The reason he's not on the Steelers anymore, because he's on that, is he on Malcontent Mount Rushmore for Pittsburgh wide receivers?

Like, does he get one of the spots?

I know there's a lot of options.

He is, but he is in his contract year, and surely he understands and his reps understand one good year.

Behave yourself, and you will set up your family for the next hundred years with generational wide receivers.

He's a knucklehead.

Sometimes it doesn't.

I get it.

What I like the Cowboys to do specifically is if you're a fantasy football player and you have the ability to get one offense, I don't think you could do a ton better than the Cowboys right right now assuming Jaden Blue gets the gig.

One interesting, very quick note on Pickens, which concerns me and doesn't play into my prediction.

If you go back to the Pittsburgh film and you watch it and everyone's predicting a big explosive year for CeeDee Lamb, Pickens is really bad at running routes that get other people open.

Pickens wants to run routes that get Pickens open.

And so can he change his stripes in Dallas?

I don't know.

That's a big question mark for me.

Brian Schottenheimer, man.

That's a tough one, too, for me also.

Because I flirted with this one too, Connor.

And then I was doing some reading and some research and you're right.

I agree with all your points.

But to me, such an underwhelming hire is, is he of the juice to kind of revitalize this organization a little bit?

You don't necessarily have to revitalize nine and eight is not revitalizing the franchise.

That's where we're talking nine or 10 wins.

Is that where you see the ceiling here?

Yeah, I mean, it's seven and a half.

And Mike McCarthy, who is clearly on his way to checking out, got to seven and almost eight with, again, I mean, there was a couple of games there that were really close with Cooper freaking rush at the the end of the season so again you get Dak Prescott for 17 games I think you can put this thing on autopilot for at least a mediocre season and this is not this is not a Marty Schottenheimer angled take um one of my favorite people to have ever ever existed in the NFL but I actually think that Brian Schottenheimer is going to be one of the bigger stories of the first two months of the season I think he's going to do a good job now

Record that and tell me how wrong I am possibly in deep October, but I truly think he's going to do a good job.

Wow, gutsy.

I like it.

Well, it's gutsy, but it's like, I'm just saying I'm on a podcast.

Like, what does it mean?

Well, we're going to use it at the top of the show tease to really amplify it.

Really put you on Schottenheimer Island in a big spot.

Really getting meta there, really philosophical.

What does any of it mean?

I don't know.

I am absolutely on fire with how this draft board is going for me.

You guys haven't taken anything from me, and I know my last pick you guys are going to go near because you guys are having a love affair with that team.

So, I'm going to leave it there, and I'm going to go and grab the over on the Minnesota Vikings over nine and a half.

I don't understand this.

I don't understand.

Like, everyone, I don't think anybody knows even what they're thinking about the Vikings because nobody seemed to take Sam Darnold seriously.

It almost didn't matter what he did.

Everyone was waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin, and then everybody got what they wanted.

And the last two weeks, things went south.

That team went 14 and three with Darnold, who nobody even thinks is a special quarterback.

So he's in Seattle.

Here's the rookie, now a second-year player, but hasn't played.

And J.J.

McCarthy.

I mean, who do we trust?

It's a very short list in our league of

people that I trust more to understand whether a guy's got it on offense.

And Kevin O'Connell, KOC, this is a special, special guy.

And he thinks J.J.

McCarthy has it.

So now I have to say to myself, all right, so even if

there's some growing pains and let's say they take a step back and they win four less games, I still hit it because that's a 10-win season.

So

I think the Vikings are going to maybe, do they come down on offense?

Maybe a little bit, but I'm not freaking out about it.

And Brian Flores is still there.

And Brian Flores, because he sued the NFL, is never going to get a head coaching job.

So what they have, they kind of have what the Vikings have is kind of what the Chiefs got going with Spags, where Spaggs, totally different circumstances, but he's not going to get another head coaching job.

So, you just have this gifted DC that just parked there, and Flores and the Vikings.

So, that defense, I think, is going to be fine.

And I think the offense is going to be fine.

And it could be potentially very good if Kevin O'Connell is right about the quarterback that he hand-picked to be the future of the organization.

Bang the over.

I really like this.

I tend to agree with you on the over.

What would concern me is that, you know, any team with a quarterback, variable.

It's just a variable.

We just don't know.

Everything I've seen from J.G.

McCarthy, especially like in terms of his

personality, organization, presence, like I really dig him and I really hope.

Good looking.

It's a good looking kid.

He just kind of fits the whole part, right?

The old baseball.

That's a great face.

Great face.

You're in a nasty division.

My one concern would be one or two key injuries could sink any one of those teams in the NFC North.

That's the concern for me.

It's not any team.

Sure, but

it's not how we talk about the AFC South or the NFC South or a number of other divisions.

Like, it's a nasty dog-eat-dog world, and like getting to nine wins is

not as simple as it would be in other environments or in other neighborhoods, as Dave would say.

Well, as far as the neighborhood goes, that's the concern, Dan.

I get you, and maybe there's a little regression at QB or whatever, but it's more the rise of the Bears.

And even the Packers should be a better version of themselves this year versus last year.

Jordan Love, not talked about as much.

I mean, I suspect that he had leg troubles that endured much longer than when he got back out onto the field.

Either way, though, I completely agree with your main point about KOC.

He decided on J.J.

McCarthy.

I trust him.

I don't think that that is the reason for concern.

The thing that they are not going to be able to do that I don't see at least is they don't have a run game to lean on, really, do they?

And that's what you want for your young QB.

Yeah.

Connor, the one other piece of this,

a little sneaky, well, it wasn't sneaky because it's a key player on the team, but Christian Darasaw going down with the knee last year was, you know, a big, big, big, big hit to their team.

And Darnold was pretty spotty from that point on.

We'll see when he gets back, but I'm assuming if everything goes to plan, he is going to be, you know, back early in the season, potentially even week one.

And that's another huge boost for the offense.

You're right.

And I think that the one thing that we're discounting more than than anything is the benefit for J.J.

McCarthy is how the season ended for Darnold with all that pressure, how leaky the offensive line looked.

It wasn't just

the tackle situation.

They went out and they just spammed the interior market for offensive linemen.

It's better than it was.

And, you know, so I don't know.

I think it's a good pick.

I like it.

Thanks, bud.

Shek, third pick for you.

Easy peasy.

I'm kind of surprised they're there, although the number at nine and a half does seem pretty rich for a team that has a lot of

people feel that they have a pox put on them for whatever reason.

The Los Angeles Chargers.

It's Jim Harbaugh's sophomore season as the head coach of a football team.

That means good things, right?

Right.

Okay, because we just had money on voice of the Chargers, of course, and money is very bullish on this team.

And not and money, because money's, you know, you know money better than anybody else.

Oh, he'll shoot straight.

No, he'll shoot straight about the money.

He's the voice of the team.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And he not only is he bullish on the offense, getting where it needs to be, despite missing, you know, some

dynamic aspects to it, he was really talking up the defense

and sees them.

They were the number one scoring defense last year.

And that is not...

Here's the one thing, Check.

That is not in the popular conversation around the Chargers seen as something that's going to be a strength.

That's seen as something that they've lost players and they haven't necessarily found everything.

And of course, they lost their left tackle, and that's huge.

And you obviously Najee in the backfield who blew up his face with fireworks and he's not back on the field.

There is some reason for concern around the scene, but you seem confident.

Completely get the concerns.

I am riding.

I mean, I'm blurring my eyes.

Six months ago, I said it.

Oh, the second year with the Chargers, you know, is going to be good because of Jim Harbaugh's track record.

I stand by it.

I think the Raiders are going to be pretty good.

I wouldn't be surprised if we hear them floated here.

I think the Broncos are going to be good.

It's very hard to identify who's going to be the weak sister of the AFC West right now, right?

I do think that the talk about his Patrick Mahomes in a big spot this year for where his career is, kind of, yeah, because I think that this is the toughest West, AFC West, that he's ever going to have to fight through if they're going to win the division this year.

All right, we hit the Chargers pretty hard yesterday, so let's move off that and go straight to Sese now with his third and fourth pick as he closes out.

What's a very important draft for his legacy coming off?

Well, as you mentioned about yourself, I love where this board is falling for me.

A team that, Sheck, you just noted, the Raiders.

I'm taking the over on 6.5.

Again, this exercise, I'm not saying they're a playoff team.

They need to get to seven wins.

They won four a year ago.

I don't think there's a team in the AFC that did more to kind of overhaul who they are.

And we've talked about it a lot this offseason, but Pete Carroll doesn't go, doesn't do four-win seasons.

Like,

he's not going to

be the problem here.

He's going to absolutely guarantee that they're a steadier team.

You've got Geno Smith.

I think Tom Brady is a big part of this.

Like,

they've got a secretly pretty

competent and nasty defense.

I think they're just going to find a way to get to eight wins or something, maybe even nine, but they're going to to be one of these teams that's a good story.

And you're telling me that 6.5 is where a Vegas put its own home team, not buying it.

I'm going over.

Is that how it works?

I don't know.

I don't know anything about it.

Justin would know better.

Is there a home field advantage in terms of setting lines?

I tend to think probably not.

Oh, there's a home field advantage if you mean like the home team gets more points in the spread.

But in terms of Vegas.

Well, I think Dan understands that.

Vegas

doesn't care where the teams are located when they set these lines.

Wouldn't it be myself to Justin's advice and gambling stuff?

It's fair.

They say he's burgeoning in that department.

I know people said that the day it happened, however many moons ago it was now, but really...

As you look back, what a critical mistake.

The Chargers should have gone to Vegas and the Raiders should have gone to SoFi.

That was the move.

Absolutely.

The state of pro football would be much better.

And the Chargers present is, I think they would have won over.

The Raiders bring the baggage and their success to Vegas.

That's hard to embrace.

I'd rather have a brand new franchise and stink for half a decade rather than it's the same thing as signing Brett Favre, you know, at the like at the tail end of his career, or dare I say, Aaron Rodgers at the tail end.

Like, he's done enough stuff.

Now, the Raiders just feel like a mercenary team being dropped into Sin City here.

It's hard to embrace him if you're a Vegas guy.

And can I just add, this is a little bit of pushback on this one, Mark, because I'm not on the same page with you on this one.

Okay.

Connor does his yearly exercise, and it's upnow at SI.com.

We've done this before also back in the day on NFL.com.

It's really hard to do the whole like pick every game because inevitably you're going to have to figure out who's going to suck.

And then you can't have everyone be good in a division.

Just you're doing the math of it all, the math doesn't check out.

So, in this case, Mark, if you're saying the Raiders are going to be good, and you're thinking the Chiefs are going to be good, and you're in on the Broncos,

and you're in on who's the other team?

The Chargers,

like Connor, like somebody's got to probably come back from that division for the math to work on this.

I'm saying they're going to win seven games, not change the culture of America.

Yeah, so still, that's tight.

It's tight.

So, it's tight.

Here's why

I agree with Mark.

Like, how many wins?

How many wins do you think for the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Mark?

Sorry, Connor.

Like, how many that's going to be one of those divisions where you've got three playoff teams and one that wins seven, and that's that would be my Raiders.

My Raiders.

Yeah.

Your Raiders, Mark.

Justin.

Oh, no.

Sorry, Connor.

Go ahead, Connor.

No.

So I have the Raiders at

eight

in my projection and finishing in last place in the AFC West, which is totally feasible when you take away.

I mean, I have the Titans at four wins.

I have the Browns at two wins because I think the last time that they were this bad, they were strategically bad and they actually paid the coach in cash to lose games.

And so I think that that's probably more their mindset.

So if you take away enough wins from the real bottom of the AFC, you can make it happen mathematically.

And I did.

You can make the case.

The Chiefs haven't come up in this exercise yet.

I don't want to spoil it, but they're a team that they won 11 one-score games last year.

If you knock off three or four wins for them, you could delegate that across the league as well.

Close it out, Ceci.

You're dragged.

All right.

Well, I love this too.

And I just,

you know, I'm approaching this with just absolute confidence, but I'm taking the over on the Giants.

They have them at 5.5.

Connor, how did you let this happen?

I thought Connor was going to grab this, or it makes sense where he was going to go.

He was saving it.

That's always so dangerous.

I had a whole thing.

All right.

Well, I agree with you.

That was going to be my last pick.

I had a whole song and dance prepared.

Did hurt your friends.

Yeah.

I'll back you up, though.

Go.

Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go.

No, I'm sorry, Connor, to have, I don't like to steal from others typically, but I think Brian Dayball is a better coach than the results have suggested.

I really do.

I think that this team has more talent than the results have suggested.

I think they had a great draft last year.

They've got some tough young guys like Russell Wilson Dayball, and I think Jackson Dart's going to get in there.

And again, this is not rocket science.

We are saying they're going to win six games in a season that goes on for about 27 months.

So I don't think that's a huge ask.

Can I tell you why you're right, Mark?

Yes.

Okay, so when I was prepping this,

the one thing that I kept going back to on the schedule was the strength of the Giants is going to be that three-headed pass rush.

Abdul Carter looks awesome in the preseason.

And if you go over their schedule, I'm not saying they're going to beat these teams, but the Chiefs have a rookie left tackle.

The Saints have a rookie quarterback and left tackle.

The Patriots have a rookie left tackle.

The Vikings have essentially a rookie quarterback.

The Cowboys have a very bad second-year left tackle.

All of this could be kind of that grist for a feeding frenzy game for Abdul Carter that just gets muddy and disgusting.

And if Russell Wilson scores 18 points, you win that game.

They almost beat the Commanders twice last year.

If they had a field goal kicker, they would have.

So I'm with you.

I'll say this.

I agree the strength of this team and maybe top two or three in all the NFL is that pass rush.

The problem for the Giants is that the game script will require them to be in the lead in the second half to really unleash that and dominate teams doing that.

And I don't know how often they're going to be in that spot.

I agree with Sessler entirely about Dayball.

Weird couple of seasons there that have made him kind of on the chopping block.

I think that would be a mistake.

I am not the Russ guy.

Ride with Russ at age 37 and he'll make things okay.

I would get Jackson Dart in there.

The problem is...

For Dayball, as you say, if he wins five games or fewer, you would assume he's going to get fired.

So he is loath to do that because if you hold off on Jackson Dart for the majority of the season, you say, we're just building something now, boss.

We got to give us 2026.

But if you run Jackson Dart out there in September and you wind up, you know, 4-13, goodbye, Brian Dable.

Here's why I stay away from this.

Here's their schedule: at Washington, at Dallas, home KC, home Chargers, at New Orleans, home Philly, at Denver, at Philadelphia, home Niners, at Chicago, home Green Bay, at Detroit, at New England.

That's their bye week.

Can I change my pick?

I just want to say I see two wins there going into their bye week.

Yeah, I think it's the toughest.

It still gets the toughest schedule in the league.

I think it's got to be tough.

After the bye week, home Washington, that's another tough one.

Home, Minnesota, another tough one.

At Vegas, you're traveling across the country.

Who knows?

Home, Dallas.

I just, I don't, I could see them being a better team and not getting to this number.

I would be freaked out about that schedule.

That's a bad schedule.

In fact, I feel like I,

well, I've made my four picks.

Can I exit the show?

Do I leave now?

No, no.

Now you just pray to the football gods.

Stay safe.

It doesn't mean anything.

You just said it on a podcast.

It doesn't make a difference.

All right, check.

Close out your draft.

I was hoping that we could get Sessler to change his pick within 29 seconds after making it.

I think it almost happened there.

I kind of feel like it did.

By the way,

hedonists out there, we need a good Photoshop of Sessler as the Raiders logo with the eye patch.

Just remember, the good eye is closed.

One of the weirdest things in logos out there in sports right now.

Why is his eye?

He only has one eye and it's closed.

Anyhow, that's the uniform monitor.

There you go.

I am going to go with

exactly to what Hanzus was saying a couple of minutes ago about some teams are going to wind up on the wrong side of 500 here.

The New New England Patriots, I like them quite a bit.

The Dolphins might be bad.

The Jets, who knows, they may be the Jets, and then

they'll soar past eight and a half wins, but that's a lot to put on.

I like Drake May.

I like Mike Vrabel in that spot.

I like the pieces.

Check, you took mine.

That's just

a lot of wins when there are a lot of good teams in the conference.

Better be a little bit more than a little bit more.

A little frustrated, Dave, because I didn't think the one thing I didn't keep in mind is that you're not a regular on the show.

And I know Connor and Justin and Mark, it's a love fest about the Patriots.

And I thought I had this in my back pocket on the under.

Okay, Justin's saying no, but I thought I had this one locked and loaded, but I forgot to just, I didn't think about you and where you might come in on them.

I'm with you.

I'm going to move out of the way.

Under eight and a half.

Go ahead.

That's it from me.

I'd love to hear the pushback on this one.

I mean,

obviously, they're going to be tough to throw on with the pieces that they throw out there defensively.

And, you know,

it's the quarterback league.

They have the answer at quarterback, right?

We believe in Drake May.

If you do, then enough said on that.

My pushback is this has been one of the worst teams in football for back-to-back years, two four-win seasons,

minus 128 point differential last year.

And to kind of the point that was made earlier that they attacked free agency to fill all their voids.

And maybe that works, but maybe it doesn't.

And I think at the end of the day, and this is when I'm really on an island on the show, I'm just not like as huge a Mike Rabel fan as everybody else is.

Like, the way he's been treated just because

they botched the previous hire, like, this guy is some massive difference maker.

There's a reason he got fired in Tennessee.

Like,

his message stopped resonating.

They missed the playoffs back-to-back years.

And while I think he's a better and more qualified head coach

than Gerard Mayo, like, I don't see him as one of those eight difference makers that's going to totally turn this team into a playoff contender or anything near it this year.

So

I would have agreed with you.

I would have taken this one if it was there.

Connor.

I don't think

it's a solid pick, but I do believe in Variable and I would say also you can eat inside your own division because

I feel like the Dolphins were a team that I almost went on the under because I just sensed darkness there.

And if the Jets,

if the Jets wind up, you know, being a milquetoast,

lower pack team, like there's where your wins stack up.

And I think Vrabel, you're a little more down on Vrabel than I think I'm up on Vrabel.

It's like you're.

I guess I just don't see him as a huge culture difference maker at the same level.

Connor,

you're a Vrabel guy?

I'm a Vrabel guy, but I just want to push back on the idea that the Titans moved on for him for a reason.

I think if they had any other owner besides the one that they had, I mean, that was gross organizational competence and just ridiculous internal politicking that led to Mike Rabel getting pushed out the door.

He should still be.

Can I ask you

a question?

Because I know you, because you're such a real journalist,

you will clash occasionally with different organizations and figures.

Did you have some type of thing that happened with the Titans in your somewhat recent past?

No, no, the Titans have actually always been really nice to me.

One of the few teams, actually.

But I don't know what's driving this.

I'm going to have to meditate on it.

The niceness goes in one direction.

So

right church, wrong pew, or different pew, not wrong.

Because, Mark, I'm with you.

Like, the AFCEs, yeah.

Yeah.

So if I don't think the Jets are going to have a big year, which I don't.

Hopefully they'll have a more competitive year, but I don't think they're going to have a big year.

I hate the Dolphins.

Not personally, but maybe a little bit.

But I don't like their chances this year.

But I didn't pick them.

I almost did.

The Patriots, I just told my opinion on that.

So why am i overthinking this just go grab the bills at the over like that they're gonna beat up their division and they're gonna clear uh 11 wins they're gonna win 12 or 13 or 14 games in a weak division and a huge season where they are at the apex of their powers so i i usually stay away from these the juggernaut teams because it's usually such a high bar to clear if it was 12 and a half i would have really swallowed hard on it but 11 and a half give me i 12 and five in this division with the stakes around the bills barring a catastrophic injury.

I think they clear that with ease.

Shek, what do you think?

I agree with you.

I know it's a heavy number.

And what's interesting with them is at 11 and a half is they have gone in the last four years 11 wins, 13 wins.

11 wins, 13 wins.

So if you buy patterns, then 11 wins would be their win total.

But if you set that nonsense aside, I think that they are the best

team that would look on a piece of paper like a real contender out of the AFC to get to the Super Bowl.

They have the cleanest path, as you say, because of the other teams in the AFC East.

That's why I picked last week, and I stand by it for at least one more week.

My Super Bowl 60 pick is the San Francisco 49ers against the Buffalo Bills, harkening back to Boomer Berman, like, teach.

You got the Los Angeles Chargers, you got the Green Bay Packers, you got the Detroit.

Look, there are a lot of good teams in the NFC.

But the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers are putting something pretty special together.

Back on the blitz.

Has a nickname, Shaq, has a nickname in Chris Berman's case, Boomer, ever so neatly then slid into like the cultural zeitgeist viewpoint of who that person was as Chris Berman being boomer?

I never thought about that, but yes.

One other fact about the Bills,

tough one, awesome one, week one Ravens.

Can't wait, right?

A little too early for the matchup.

I like those.

I hate it.

That's my biggest curmudgeon take of every football season.

What do we need juicy week one matchup for?

We've been out in the desert for six months.

Just give us a cracker.

We don't need filet mignons.

I'm totally with you.

But it is still a game we're all going to look forward to watching.

The next six games on their schedule, teams that finished sub-500 last year.

So they have a chance.

And football changes so much year to year.

That might not mean shit come the end of October, but

it's not the Giants schedule, as an example that we just drew.

Like they can get out of the gates super hot, and I'm feeling spicy by Halloween.

Connor, put a bow on that one.

I totally agree.

I mean, you signed James Cook.

You've cleared out all the bad vibes.

I think this team is, you can airmail them to the conference championship game.

It's an easy one.

Stay healthy, Joey Bosa.

Even more likely.

Right.

All right, Connor.

We know you wanted the Giants bad here, but they're not there.

So what is going to be your choice to close out this draft?

Okay, so the Dolphins are the obvious pick out there, but I had felt like taking the Giants, and I still feel like laying my grapes on the table.

So I did prepare a total shocker to close out.

It's such a small fruit

of all the choices.

It's not the size of the fruit.

It's how you swing it.

And so I prepared a little bit of a shocker for the last one.

So I don't know.

How do you feel about this?

I can't wait to hear it.

Okay.

Yeah.

Well, before what, just to build up the suspense more, Shaq, you are the arbiter of all things fruit.

Fruits as parallels to balls,

what would be the top one?

Well, I'd like to honor the grapefruit because that's the biggest orb this side of watermelons and the melon family.

That means something's wrong with you medically.

Yeah, right.

That's a, yeah, like a,

as you, as you and anybody else knows, I resent the grapefruit for the laziness in its naming.

Like, hey, look at that orange circle over there.

What should we call it?

Call it a grapefruit.

Like,

yo, hey, Seth, you know, we already have a fruit called grape, and it looks nothing like that fruit.

It's a, oh, no, no, it's a grape, but it's a fruit.

Yeah, no, no, no.

A grape is a fruit, though, Seth.

You get that.

Like,

4.59 p.m.

on Friday.

Right, let's get to the bar.

Like, what the hell?

Shame on you.

And stay tuned for Fruit of the Year 2025 coming up at some point.

The white peach and watermelon and honey crisp.

Can I even tell you the heirloom tomato has had a delicious save it for Football America?

You can't use up all the good stuff.

You're right.

I do have a question.

Who got to name fruits?

Here's my

one of my favorite things that I've ever heard in my life that just trips me out to no end.

Dig that.

Sessler, I think you you at least are going to be interested in this

the fruit orange

preceded the color orange they they named the color orange after the fruit what that is what that means what that is

this guy's the king of fruit that's up there with jefferson and john adams dying 50 years to the day of signing the independent the the declaration of independence 50 years to the day within like an hour of each other all right that is don't use

gold.

Don't use up all the gold, check.

Got a brand new program.

I didn't say gold.

I said orange.

All right.

Okay.

Here we go.

That was a great runway.

Connor Orr hit it, Justin.

A final pick in

the over-under.

Heed the call draft

is

the Washington Commanders under 9.5.

Ooh, disappointment in the nation's capital.

And here's why.

Since 2000, they have one of the worst schedules in terms of facing opponents who are coming off of a buy.

It's one of the worst since 2000.

They also have seven standalone games within the first 13 weeks of the season.

A lot of their additions this offseason were veterans.

Laramie Tunsell, Von Miller, Debo Samuel.

Injuries could be there.

And we've seen guys like C.J.

Stroud have miraculous rookie seasons and then just level off just a little bit which is fine there's nothing wrong with that that's part of it a lot of these wins last year were one score victories like three point win over the Carolina Panthers last year barely squeaking by the Giants I'm not saying it's a bad team I'm just saying maybe we're setting our sights a little bit too high so I just want to be that one I just want to short them just a little bit like nine wins it's the opposite of the the broncos thing right like everyone's getting hot on the broncos you're gonna you're gonna do the same thing with the commandos and go the other way okay

spicy i'm all in on that i i think like they feel like a sneaky or not so sneaky regression candidate like kind of everything including like the feel and the vibe and the new oxygen and fresh water in that organization everything kind of went right a year ago and it's like does that happen for any team two years in a row um just a few things need to go less right and they've won nine games and they're still a good team as connor said i'm taking you over but I like, I like your gonads.

I like your grapes, your big, are they, is it a red grape or a

green grape, or what is it?

I don't know if the size is different in any of them.

I was just thinking that maybe cherry tomatoes would probably be better.

That big guy, I was going to go.

Tinier and tinier.

Your genitals keep getting smaller when we do this exercise.

All right, we got, we got to go.

Um,

Sheck, you said it all.

Football America, wherever you get your podcasts,

we love you, sir.

Thank you for joining us on the show.

And I, you, and you're very kind to have me on.

And spoiler alert, guess what we're doing tomorrow?

We're doing some more over-unders.

We'll get into some player season totals there as well as some teams.

But thank you so much for having me, fellas.

You guys are the tops, including you, Connor Orr.

I got the kibbutz with him a little bit on the side over the last couple of months.

Let me just tell you, I like to always do this.

People ask,

what's that guy like?

What's she like?

Who the good people are, I will always happily tell you the the people I'm talking to right now are in the good group.

These are good human beings.

And for that, at minimum, requires your attention.

Beautiful.

Right back at you, Sheck.

Should I just, should I, as the final, yes, right back at you.

Should I?

No, I just said that on a podcast.

Who cares?

It doesn't matter.

Yeah, it doesn't matter.

Should I just run off the final choices as we say goodbye?

Here we go.

Connor, San Francisco, over 10.5.

Under New Orleans, five and a half.

Dallas, over seven and a half.

Washington, under nine and a half.

Zuzzard, Denver, over nine and a half.

Indy, under seven and a half.

Mini, over eight and a half.

Buffalo, over eleven and a half.

She, Pittsburgh, over eight and a half.

Tennessee, over five and a half.

Chargers, over nine and a half.

Pats, under eight and a half.

And yet, I like them.

Ceci, Atlanta, over 7.5.

Jets over 5.5.

Vegas, over 6.5.

See, the classic optimist.

Sweep over 5.5 Giants.

What could go wrong?

Here we go.

We love you, audience.

Thank you for another great

enjoying our show as we enjoy doing it for you.

Three big shows, three extra long shows.

Well, we'll try to rein it in next week, but check out the patreon.com or maybe not.

Maybe not.

Maybe unnecessary.

Let us know.

Sound off in the comments.

Patreon.com/slash heed the call for more content, including the Friday fun show.

Till next week, do what you must.

Heed the call.

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