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Heed the Call with Dan Hanses and Mark Sessler is on Underdog.

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All right, let's get to it:

the heed the co podcast

is ready for some sunday night football on thursday night listen we get it it's confusing but it's not our company's branding and i want to make that clear dan hands is here mark sessler yes the season is one day closer to beginning Thursday night Chiefs, Ravens.

A great showdown, Marky Sessler.

And I know you're pumped.

You know that it's beginning when our, you know, our outlines for these shows, we like to prep, we like to put our personalities into what we do, different segments.

Oh, yeah.

But when you're spending half a day, you know, grinding out last year's AFC title game between the Chiefs and the Ravens and digging through data and notes to talk about an actual game, the script has flipped a little bit, Dan.

We are right back in the thick of it.

We absolutely are, and that will be the

first thing we talk about after news will be a preview, our first game preview of a new season, and we're going to get to that in just a little bit.

Also, coming up a little bit later,

I mean, the guest list for the week one, ahead of week one, is killer.

Of course, we had Damashek on on Monday, and that was a great old time.

Coming up a little bit later, Bill Barnwell of ESPN, one of our faves, who is going to help us get a little deeper into some storylines that have not been played out to death before the beginning of the regular season.

So, all that coming up.

But, like I said, let's start with just taking care of a little bit of housekeeping and the news.

Welcome to Applebee's.

Can I interest you in America's favorite boneless wings for just 50 cents each?

I have the 50 cent bonelings.

Cover your mouth.

They could steal your order.

That's where we're at now with Dan Campbell, Sestock.

I think he's entered that rarefied territory where

he's a darling of

the

industry, the way Rex Ryan was once upon a time.

And now it's his time to shine.

Now all the lions have to do is actually win a goddamn thing.

Yeah, we're, you know, it's back in the day when like Ron Meyer was running the Indianapolis Cults, like, it wasn't like you also needed to be like a fespian doing like car car commercials and Applebee spots with genuine acting talent because we've seen Andy Reid take his turn at that, did pretty well.

But Dan Campbell, he's a natural.

I thought that was, you know, it's like he's a bit of a Stanislavskian type actor right there.

Went right into the role, very deep.

You know,

it's such a different world now than it used to be because in the old days, you didn't have to do anything as a head coach other than just no ball and connect with players and win games.

I don't know why an image of Wayne Fonts is just like beaming into my brain, another former Lions coach.

But now you have to be the CEO.

You kind of got to be good-looking now in a weird way, and you have to be able to present yourself in a way that goes just beyond the X's and O's.

And Dan Campbell has done that.

One other thing before we get to the news, I want to just set the table a little bit for the week here.

We have obviously a new show today.

We had the Damashek mailbag episode yesterday and our NFL season predictions.

Amazingly, this show, out of this show, the Jets, Browns, and Titans all cracking the postseason in various predictions.

We have the Thursday preview show, big deal Thursday preview show with Jordan Rodrigue and Michael Sean Dugar of the Athletic.

Every week, we're going to be doing a TNF recap.

Well, it's SNF via TNF, or is it TNF via SNF recap with a special guest of Chiefs, Ravens.

And then Friday night, I don't know why.

There's a game in Brazil.

No one knows.

I think it has something to do with money.

But the Eagles and the Packers play on Friday night.

We'll do a recap that night.

So you're not going anywhere, Cecil.

You're not doing any of your, you know, Bob Seeger Hollywood nights,

you know,

routine because we're talking ball.

Because then two days after that,

it's the flagship show and the return with Connor Orr.

So I hope you enjoyed your flights of of fancy up and down Cielo Drive.

No, I mean, this is a rather important venture for us.

I wasn't planning to hatch like a new four or five days of, you know, waltzing around town.

That period is over.

You know, and I think in past years, that would have agitated me to some degree because I also like to drive to an office and sit in a cubicle.

And now we are completely free.

We're running our own show, and it feels different.

It feels better.

I am not annoyed on any level.

I'm excited.

This is a different type of season for us.

I love to hear that.

I need to hear it.

And now I've heard it.

And now we can move on with the show.

Not that I was taking the temperature.

I've never seen enjoyment.

There we go.

I mean, that is a great way to cap what you just said.

All the things you said previously.

And then what you just said just there, Mark, was a great way to put a finish on it there.

Thank you.

I appreciate that.

All right, let's get into the news.

The big story that everyone woke up to on Tuesday, a couple days ago, we learned that Brandon Nayuk and the Niners had ended their contentious little summer.

And now, on Tuesday, it was Trent Williams' turn for his holdout to come to an end, the future Hall of Fame left tackle and really anchor of so much of what the 49ers do.

They are, according to Adam Schefter, as of this taping, they are finalizing a new deal according to his agency.

Trent Williams is posting on social media, and he's excited.

They're going to get suited.

up and return to the fray and all this pointing points to Mark, the 11-time Pro Bowler

being on the field on Monday night when the Niners begin their defense of the NFC title against the New York Jets.

So, yes, Ayuk back in the fold.

You have now Trent Williams back in the fold.

You have Christian McCaffrey returning to practice.

He missed much of training camp with a calf issue.

So the Niners are becoming whole right just in time.

Just in time.

You know, it's like hard to gauge how all this was going to get done, but I always felt that the Trent Williams piece was simply just more critical than Ayuk.

I mean, someone could argue differently, but

this was the sixth worst pass-blocking line in the year ago.

But you've got the greatest left tackle in football somehow masking a lot of that and also Shanahan's system.

But it's pretty incredible when you start to look at how much he means to the team.

And that's even beyond the fact that I think he is the guy in the locker room that everyone looks to.

There was the video out there a week ago that showed when I I think it was against the Browns number, you know, that they were kind of jawing with the Niners.

And Trent Williams comes out of nowhere, like 20 yards up the field and just blows up like five Browns before the game.

And it's like, that's who Trent Williams is.

And when they ran to his side,

six plus yards per carry.

It is a yard and a half less anywhere else along that line because that's not a star-studded line.

Look, if you look at what Christian McCaffrey's numbers were with or without Trent Williams during his run there, it's pretty insane.

They're 4-10 without him.

When he wasn't in the lineup last year, they started to sink.

So he is the piece.

And you kind of just trust that this guy is in his 15th season, 36.

He kind of belies his age, that he's going to step in and be all right.

I don't mind that there's an extra day between Sunday and Monday and even into the night for him to kind of just get acclimated.

But as long as he's taken care of his body, and I trust he has, like, the Niners,

it started to feel like all of this could have started to take a toll because it's been about as dramatic as a training camp, as you can imagine.

But this is what they do: they get it fixed in the 11th hour, and suddenly the Jets have to deal with two players in another world they wouldn't have had to.

Yeah, so obviously, if you're the Jets, you were hoping this drama would play out a little bit longer, but it's not.

My one feeling is, and yeah, Trent Williams is an old man by NFL terms.

And I was just thinking about this, and it's kind of the nature of the beast with the NFL, but I'll use like baseball as a comparison point.

When a player, whether it's a long holdout or their free agency extends longer than expected, or they're coming off an injury,

the way that sport works is even once you get healthy, there's a ramp-up period.

You might go on a minor league rehab assignment.

You might have to essentially start over a spring training regimen to get you to get back on the field.

The NFL, it's like, okay, you're back.

All right, Trent, go out there and play 60 snaps on Monday night.

And Christian McCaffrey, okay, we know you have a calf injury and you're a running back, but you've been working off on the side.

So, you know, what are they going to give McCaffrey

30 carries and touches on Monday night?

It wouldn't surprise me.

It's just the nature of the beast in the NFL.

And I would just say, as a Niners fan, you're kind of holding your breath that some of these issues that you now believe that you're over don't have any type of shadow.

That would be the last concern.

But, I mean, ultimately, that's a minor quibble compared to where we were a few weeks ago when McCaffrey's status was unclear and Ayuk and Trent Williams were super unhappy.

Things are where where they need to be for the Niners right now.

Now, one other Niners' note, and this was a scary story that we learned over the weekend.

Ricky Pearsall, their wide receiver who they took at the end of the first round, was involved with a violent incident in San Francisco where he was shot by a 17-year-old male who was attempting to rob him.

And Mark, he was shot in the chest.

And it's kind of a miracle because he's shot through the chest.

The wound, exit wound is through his back.

Somehow misses all vital organs.

He's got his lungs and his heart and all sorts of stuff in there.

Missed those.

So he's out of the hospital.

In fact, he was back with the Niners on Tuesday.

So kind of a miracle, a scary situation.

He's already now been ruled out the first four weeks of the season.

But considering the circumstances here,

it could not have been a better ending to what was a tragic incident, potentially.

I mean, it was pretty jarring to watch the video of him that they captured as he was able to walk away from the incident.

But I mean, he looked obviously

totally shaken, totally physically shaken up.

Yeah, it's like, you know,

an inch to the right or left or something, and the story is completely different.

So the idea that he's going to get to even play football again this season,

you know, it's crazy.

And they need him.

I think it's the one thing, the one system where you can trust that like younger receivers can come in and thrive early.

But

all that kind of, you know, it's like with all these sports stories where it just takes on generally a life of its own.

It's about life.

Like,

just hope that he can heal quickly.

And also, that it wasn't like totally traumatizing because, like, you know, he's moved from another place to San Francisco, and you could live in San Francisco for 10 years and nothing would happen to you, but you've got a 17-year-old hitting you up with a gun.

I mean, shaky.

So I'm glad you got it.

I mean,

this is a separate story, but we learned this week that Clyde Edwards Solaire, the Chiefs running back, he's been put on the NFI list, dealing with a form of PTSD that's connected to his own, as we understand, a violent incident that he was involved with, not directly.

It wasn't him perpetrating violence, but something he witnessed that has had long-standing issues for him personally.

So, you're right.

Like, that this isn't something that's like, oh, the bullet missed my heart, so now I'm good.

So, you just hope for the best.

And just in terms of his background, he's, he's really hasn't played that much throughout the summer, been dealing with a couple of different injuries.

So, you would think now this incident, he it's kind of a total restart, and we'll see if he can make something out of his rookie year.

But just the fact that he is alive

matters more than anything.

So,

that is that situation.

Anything else that we need to hit here?

No, I think that's good.

I think we should transition.

I think we should get into it.

That's what's happening in the news.

And, Mark, I think

a good way to get into this Thursday night game.

And it's again, I'll say this, Marky, I'll say this, that I am always a little bit, although everyone's excited for football to start and

what a better way to start a football season than a rematch of the AFC championship game.

It always gives me a little bit of pause that you're getting these teams before they've figured out who they are and their identity.

And it's such a huge game because the Ravens and Chiefs, if you want to pick who are the two teams in the AFC

that I feel

most comfortable,

or even the desert feels most comfortable saying, oh, they're going to win 12 or 13 games, it's these two teams probably.

And then you factor in what's the first tiebreaker in the case of teams finishing with the same record in the regular season.

It's head-to-head matchups.

So this is a massive kickoff at a time mark where both the Ravens and the Chiefs are, whether it's injuries or new players in new positions or just the general butterflies that come with NFL season now begins with barely anybody of consequence getting much preseason playing time in games.

It's going to be a hugely important game, but also one that there's going to be significant rust.

And that's just part of these Thursday night openers and in general, the opening of the season with these primetime games because the league's always going to want to put these teams, high-profile teams, in these spots.

And the games count just as much now as they will in early January.

And it takes on a different life than a year ago when the Chiefs were almost, to some degree, drowned out by the lovable nature of the Lions and the fact that the Lions had been picked for the kickoff game.

And the fact that what happened in that game, you know, which was different because it's an NFC team, but this really is the kind of game you could look back on months from now and say, whoever takes it could have the end up, end up with home field advantage, depending on how the record ends.

And I, you know, that AFC title game, which we've all kind of taken a look at recently, which was a weird game for the Ravens in so many ways,

leaves a lot of questions for them to answer right away.

Forget all this business about revenge game.

I think it's just kind of like a look-in-the-mirror type game because Todd Munkin, who did a nice job with this offense and had an MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson.

They just lost themselves in that game entirely.

You had six running back rushes the entire time.

They lost their identity.

To me, you're looking at a team on with Todd Munkin, it's like answers right there.

How do you come out and reset what this offense is against a very good defense?

But it's also a Ravens team where you look at that game and you can say, well, there's a lot of newness here because Zach Orr is your new defensive coordinator.

He's replaced Mike McDonald, who did an incredible job last year and really transformed that defense and maximized them.

This is a 32-year-old defensive coordinator who's been with the Ravens for

seven of the last eight years, but

he was a player.

I mean, I remember when Connor Orr and I were talking about the fact that there was a Ravens player with the last name as his.

He didn't last long as a player, he's now a coach, but he lost a lot of guys on the show.

The Ravens D.C.

isn't Connor?

It's not related to Connor.

Not related to Connor.

They thought we had a real coup d'état there.

No, that would have been.

I mean, also because he just appeared on our show a week ago to shift into that job would have been interesting.

I mean, it's just there's change all over the place because for me, the key is if you go back to that title game, Steve Spagnola rushed Lamar Jackson a ton it was the second most rush rate for that chiefs defense of any game all year and they've since that Ravens line has lost three starters and you've got Andrew Voorhees who last year was a highly picked rookie did not play at all he's at left guard and Roger Rosengarten who's a second rounder from this year at right tackle and it that is like there's a lot of TBD there and so I wonder if three starters

three new starters that I mean that's the kind of thing where you can can say, we can say to ourselves, like, the Ravens are so consistent.

They've got a new coordinator.

They've got an entirely new offensive line from some angle.

They've lost a bunch of guys all over the place.

I know you're not a big Judavian clowny guy, but they needed him last year.

He had his first best season.

How could he not be?

He was great.

Exactly.

Just to

focus it in a little bit here, let's start with the offense.

So, like, you're right.

What Monken did taking over for Greg Roman was remarkable when you look back on it.

And

if you look, they had, this is a great stat

from the football almanac, Aaron Schatz's football almanac.

The Ravens offense generated 132 explosive plays in 2023.

That was seventh in the NFL.

They also,

you know, just in a way, they were able to open up the field for Lamar Jackson was something that in Roman's offense, things had gone stale and it just really needed to be updated.

And they were able to do that and create those explosive plays despite, obviously, Mark Andrews missing a large chunk of the season and despite there being a lack of consistency in the running game behind Lamar Jackson and questions at wide receiver as they were trying to get Odell Beckham going throughout the season and get Zay Flowers who really hit the ground running, but having a rookie wide receiver in the mix and all the challenges that come with that.

The fact fact that it all kind of went away in that AFC title game, it has to be a sort of, I know they don't talk revenge game.

I think what a cliche.

Lamar said, every game is a revenge game.

Whatever, bro.

You had the best, one of the best offense since your 2019 first

MVP season.

You had the best defense in the league by a large measure.

and a Chiefs team that was clearly not the same team last year, and you couldn't get it done.

And the fact that

you look at that, Mark, that AFC title game, I mean, what a sin.

You had Lamar throwing 37 passes in that game and you had Lamar leading the team in rushes with eight

Gus Edwards, Zay Flowers, and Justice Hill, three, two, and three carries in that game, 16 carries.

What a sin.

So as much credit as Monkin deserves, Harbaugh and Monkin went off the script and they got killed for it in the AFC title game.

Enter Derrick Henry.

And I think that's a big part of this now.

So you have the offensive line questions, which are fair, but you have Lamar Jackson, who's said earlier in camp that he's shed some weight and he's looking to be more explosive.

If that's true, if that's not just training camp talking, he actually is, because you notice that even in winning the MVP, he wasn't as fast and devastating a runner last season.

And Derrick Henry still has gas in the tank.

This team is going to be a mess to deal with for opposing defensive coordinators if that offensive line does its job.

Yeah, I'm with you.

I mean, you are facing a Chiefs' defense that allowed the fewest 20-plus-yard plays around.

That's something I can trust to stick around more than just some of the stuff, some of the other changes.

They also allow the 10th highest explosive run rate.

So I think if you're the Ravens and you want to make a statement out of the gate and you want to, I think Derrick Henry, you're not going to use him heavily every game if you can help it.

But this is a game where I'd like to see Derrick Henry come in and set the tone early along with Lamar and and just sort of say what was missing in that last title game.

And, you know, that's it.

Some of this is, you know, not to go like talking head, but some of it is like

it does lead to like deeper questions about Lamar Jackson in the most critical spots.

He's one and four against the Chiefs.

You know, so are the Ravens with him in there.

So it's a team thing.

But you're facing an Andy Reid team that is 9-2 in openers.

And, you know, the loss last year was unusual for them.

They're going to be totally well prepared.

And if we flip it to the Kansas City offense, they've gotten faster.

I think Xavier Woods changes what you can do.

They really obviously struggled with long, you know, mundane, grinded-out drives last year.

And the way they used Xavier in the preseason, he was on the field for about 90% of the drop backs that Mahomes was there for.

So they've got a lot.

As much as you can get work together, they've tried.

And I got to imagine if you're Andy Reid, if you're all of them, you're drawing up stuff on napkins with a bunch of Chinese food boxes around you, it's got to involve this new wide receiver and what you couldn't do a year ago, correct?

Yeah, I think if you look at the Chiefs getting beat, and what a tough start

for Tugboat to the, I remember locks last season.

I opened the season by locking up the Chiefs, and they lose by one point, and they lost that game because of two players, one who was there and one who wasn't.

Chris Jones, the best player on the other side of the ball for the Chiefs on defense, he had a long holdout, so he missed week one.

And then you had Kadarius Toney, who they were trying to cosplay him as potentially their number one wide receiver, and he immediately blew up with a catastrophic week one that featured multiple drops that cost him the game straight up.

So he's out of town.

He was cut last week.

Chris Jones is back.

Xavier Worthy is in the building.

We don't have Hollywood Brown yet.

He's coming back from that injury, but Rashi Rice now year two.

He's not going to be suspended, at least for the start of the year.

Isaiah Pacheco is back.

And I think, Gravedigger, I'm curious

what you see.

Obviously, Travis Kelsey is back, another year older, sure, but also Kelsey and Mahomes have chemistry that we've never seen between QB and tight end.

I expect this offense to be a lot better.

I expect the Ravens' defense to come down from their nearly historic rates last year.

If you pop the hood on their metrics, you're comparing them favorably to the 85 Bears and the 2,000 Ravens and the 91 Redskins, Mark, who we were talking about earlier, and the 07 Pats.

So that will be the thing I'm kind of watching maybe the most.

Do the Chiefs look better and more explosive?

Are the Ravens not quite where they were defensively last year?

Because that could decide the game.

I think it's going to be interesting to see how long this Ravens team takes to gel on both sides of the ball because you mentioned all the turnover on defense.

They still have some really great players on that side of the ball and Kyle Hamilton, Justin Matabuke, who's now going by Nandi Matabuke.

Yeah, we didn't think about that, by the way, just a quick aside.

So he turns away from Justin Nation in a big spot for whatever reasons, his personal reasons, but to discard your name, it had to at least ring an alarm bell for you.

It's got to raise an army.

It's tough, but I respect him because he's going back to the name that his parents gave him and what they call him, and I like that he's bringing representation to that.

I will say, name changes in the NFL for players haven't always worked out well.

Like, they sometimes fade into obscurity.

You look at Shaquille Leonard, who was Darius Leonard, and then injuries took their toll.

You look at Robbie Anderson, who then became Rob B.

Anderson, who then became Robbie Chosen.

It's like, I don't know if that's working out for him.

Can you change your name?

Can you be Nam Day Graver?

That would be cool.

It would be cool, but I think that might be cultural appropriation or something else that might get you.

That could get you in hot water, and we would wash our hands of you immediately.

All right, go on with your point.

My point being, there's still great players on this defense, but there are also guys who are going to step into roles that they either filled in last year in spot starts when people were injured, or guys that had somewhat breakout campaigns like Brandon Stevens at cornerback that's going to be replacing Ronald Darby.

But with Zach Orr taking over and losing not just their defensive coordinator, but a bunch of defensive assistants who went on to be defensive coordinators elsewhere.

It's going to, it might, it may not, but it might take them a few weeks to really figure it out and come together.

So, this is definitely a tough spot.

Like, if you're the Ravens, you'd probably rather play one of the best teams in the league, not the first game with your new defensive staff.

And then, same thing for the Ravens on the offensive side of the ball.

We keep talking about three new offensive line starters.

Mark, just a minor correction for you.

You said Andrew Voorhees was a high-drafted player last year.

He was actually a seventh-rounder last year, and he's now missed the whole season with the game.

It's fine.

I just wanted to make sure that our audience knows that Mark knew that.

He just said it wrong.

It was a misspeak.

But anyway, correct on that.

He got all these new.

Mark already struggles to sleep.

You know, he's going to be staring at the ceiling, going full Dracula, thinking about

the seventh round designation.

Yeah,

absolutely.

So anyway, what was I saying?

The offensive line could take a little bit of time to gel.

You got a rookie second round pick in Roger Rosengarten who's expected to step in at right tackle.

However, the craziest part about this offensive line to me is that John Harbaugh, is not announcing who the starters are going to be.

He said, what would be the point?

We're just going to to go play the game.

So they lost both their starting guards in free agency.

They traded their starting right tackle.

Might have a rookie starting there.

We don't know.

But the thing about this Ravens offensive line, the last two years, they ranked first and second in rush yards before contact per carry.

Derrick Henry ranked eighth last year and fourth the year before that in rush yards after contact.

per carry and the titans where derrick henry was running obviously they ranked 30th in the league both of the last two years in yards before contact for Carrie.

So if this offensive line can play at a similar level, they've played the last couple of years, especially when it comes to run blocking, Derrick Henry could be, I mean, an absolute game changer.

We talk about him like he's sort of washed in the later stage of his career, and he's definitely not the same guy he was when he ran for a 99-yard touchdown and threw Jacksonville defenders out of the way like they were sacks of flour.

He still was up there near top of the league in yards after contact per carry last year.

So if they can create some space for him, I think this running game could be really dangerous.

But it all hinges on like, how long is this offensive line going to take to gel?

Can they gel out of the gate?

Or is this like a week five?

It comes together thing.

Well, there's also, there's another X factor here, by the way.

Like their offensive line coach, beloved inside the building, passed away a couple years ago.

And so a couple weeks ago, like Joe DeLessandros was like absolutely critical to that line, and they brought in George Warhop, who is a veteran coach, but he was from outside the org.

I mean, like, that's that is a lot of transition.

And I think that you know the

players like working with a certain coach for years or in this case for rookies during the summer, I mean that's a human thing too.

And it's just like you're asking this unit to do a lot out of the gate.

I like those Derrick Henry stats.

And also you can focus on the fact that Derrick Henry Like he played behind a pretty shattered Titans line the last couple of years.

So this is a wait and see situation, but it is the opening night in Kansas City with guys who have not been in this situation.

It's kind of like you can't really look back on the AFC title game on some level and say this is the same operation.

All right,

let's pick this game.

Why not?

Oof.

Gravy, get us going.

Do you think the Chiefs' pregame banner ceremony will have any impact on the Ravens' mentality as they're sitting there on the sidelines watching them hang this banner?

And they're like, that should have been us.

I agree.

It might be a good thing.

I mean, if they need that, if they need that, like, they're, I mean, if you want to tell anything about the Ravens' mentality, I would say,

again, that team last year

had a historically great defense playing out of its mind for three and a half months, killing everybody.

Their losses were fluky.

Their wins were dominant.

Every contender they faced, dominant victories.

Remember the Christmas night game?

My goodness, what they did to the 49ers that night.

They looked unstoppable.

And I would say, in terms of like battle damage and scarring,

to not get over the hump when you had that defense and the MVP at quarterback to not even get to the Super Bowl, you just wonder if, yeah, they're and now to lose the DC, to lose players.

The climb, it starts, it's like how I feel about the Niners a little bit, that climb, you start to look out at the beginning of a new season, and it just seems a little steeper every year because you've had so much disappointment.

But all that stuff, I think, we won't know.

This team's going to to be fine if they stay healthy.

I think they're going to win 11 or 12 games.

But, you know, the pressure is building.

It has to be.

And if they're saying it's not, they're lying to us.

Context for that historic defense thing.

First team in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed per game, total sacks, and total takeaways.

That is incredible.

I don't know.

And they had the MVP at quarterback and they couldn't get out of the AFC when the Chiefs were, you know, clearly

the worst Chiefs team of this run, and they still couldn't get over the hump.

That has to sit with you in a way that's either motivating or a little bit, you know,

and they shut him out in the second half of that game.

Yeah, I think the defense

flowers was an inch away from tying that game, but Losarius Need, who's not there anymore, knocked the ball out of the goal line.

I do think that the Ravens, like, I think all the talk about motivation and mentality and stuff, like, maybe that lasts for one snap and then you're just playing football again.

So I kind of hate all that talk anyway.

I'm going to pick the Chiefs.

I think if this, like I said, I think if this matchup was like week 10, the Ravens would win because I think that defense and offensive line would have the time it needs to gel.

But I am going to take the Chiefs.

However, I don't think they cover three points.

I think it's like a Patrick Mahomes game-winning 24-23 type of score for Kansas City.

All right.

How about you, Marky?

Yeah, I mean, if you look at these Chiefs teams, like, they don't go in and beat teams 45 to 3.

They tend to find a way to keep these games close.

A lot of the, I mean, a lot, like just the way that they overcome really dramatic situations and their own, you know, misfortunes, to me, though, emboldens who they are and what they are.

And when that flag raises for them, it's like, well, we got through last season

with our worst offense, with an offense that was

not able to function the way that we'd want.

And I just feel like they're so elastic.

They probably feel like they can win in any situation.

You already have a quarterback that makes you feel that way.

You got a coach that makes you feel that way.

Then you always mention the defense after those things, but the defense got them out of so many jams last year.

I think Spaggs is such a huge asset.

This is a team that kept all their coaches.

There's so much consistency.

They added at wide receiver.

I don't know how,

I would be very surprised if this Ravens team that's in flux, you're right, Justin, that in week one, there's just a lot to figure out.

You're in Kansas City.

This place is going to be going absolutely crazy.

The Chiefs are extremely healthy.

So are the Ravens.

But the Chiefs don't have really anyone of note outside of Hollywood Brown not appearing in this game.

And I feel like they win this 27-17.

Okay.

Wow.

I'm kind of in a similar boat as you.

I like the Chiefs.

I like the Chiefs to cover.

I do think the Ravens defense deserves a lot of respect, but also there's a little bit of transition, and that might take time.

I'm not going to be panicking for either of these teams if it doesn't go their way.

Again, owing to the fact that this matchup is just so early that these teams just, I mean, look at the Chiefs, an example.

The Ravens with their pieces on offense and the MVP.

The Chiefs haven't even had their full 11 guys on defense practicing until this week.

So there's certainly another end of this where the Ravens with Derrick Henry and Lamar and Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers and Rashad Bateman, they go off.

But I just don't see it.

Not yet.

Not in this setting.

Not in Kansas City.

I also, Mark, how about this?

27-17.

I'm with you.

Wow.

Chiefs win.

So Ravens fans who think we

hate you or whatever.

I'm with myself also.

I don't believe that.

I think the Ravens are going to be fine.

I picked them as a playoff team, but this is a very tough spot for them in a time of transition.

Speaking of,

I just blew that for you.

I'm so sorry.

I just wanted to throw one last thing out there because I picked the Chiefs.

You will take seven lashings.

And you have also lost your name, Justin.

It's gone now.

No, go ahead.

I just wanted to state for the Ravens fans out there, we didn't get to my Super Bowl picks on the last show, but I picked the Ravens to beat the Lions in the Super Bowl.

So I'm very high on this Ravens team.

I think this week one is just a little road bump that they are going to overcome.

Oh, my goodness.

I should take the lashing.

I forgot to get Justin at the end of the show with his picks.

It's fine.

I'll tweet.

Damashek just slid in and took the Justin spot, the former Justin.

No, Justin's back.

It's back.

Even Steven.

You blew my transition, but then i screwed it up on monday it's all good all right transition let's take a break and when we return bill barnwell talking about the things that you're not talking about but probably should be be right back

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Welcome back.

Our next guest is my favorite pro football writer.

Why?

He's a man who

blends expert knowledge,

historical perspective, subtle humor, pure passion.

All of this done with just a hint of the roguish charm that only an alumni of Northeastern University in Boston can possess.

It's Bill Barnwell.

I was waiting for like a little burn at the end of that, like my favorite football writer who went to Northeastern in 2001.

But no, you gave me the whole thing.

I'm honored.

That's very flattering.

I feel like I really need to deliver here on the show now.

I don't mean to ramp up the pressure, but yeah, now I I have set the table and a bar that perhaps is impossible to reach.

I'm not a very tall person, so I will do my best jumping.

Maybe I can get those cool shoes they had when you were kids that you could didn't have like a back half, and so you'd build up your calf.

I think Danny Kelly, I believe.

Oh, brother.

Yeah, like a 5'6 guy could learn to dunk, basically.

Yes.

Right.

Exactly.

On the way, have to assume you'd tear your Achilles maybe a half dozen times.

Also, that's clearly Fugesi.

I'm sure.

Did that company get sued?

I mean,

I can't imagine.

I mean, the product is.

You can buy something from,

yeah, that feels like something where you know you send them an email, you send them a letter, and you get a, you know, no address found response.

You are, you are chasing that company around the country like they're Carmen San Diego, is my knowledge.

Carmen San Diego, which I uh I once appeared in the studio audience, really, Yes.

What continent was the final challenge?

Oh, shoot.

Now you got me on that because this was 30 years ago, but you had to pass a test to be able to take the bus into Manhattan for the taping.

I think it was Manhattan.

And

to be up close with, we're really dating ourselves here, but like Rockappella and

the woman who was the host of that show, I believe.

It is foggy, but great program.

Where in the world is Carmen San Diego?

Let's get on.

I got Barnwell here.

And you could watch Barnwell.

He's all over ESPN, obviously, and then read him on ESBN.com.

And I thought, Bill, to have you on the show,

it would be a waste of...

our time, quite frankly, at this juncture with the season right upon us to talk about the same BS that everyone's talking about.

Because at a certain point, before the games finally start, it feels like everything that has been said has already been said and then said again and again and again.

So instead, we have Bill here to help

give you more nuance.

In fact,

this is what you people don't realize

is the segment.

And I would like Bill for you to kick it off for us.

I love, first off, I just want to say I love this premise.

And the you people don't realize I could live my life every day and have a half hour just where it's just around, just not football, just life.

You people don't realize, just around that's like the entire, that's like 40% of the dynamic with my wife is just us like, you know, like, what you don't realize.

And then if you get proven right, whether it's in life or in a football take, these are the ones that can carry us straight to March.

I mean, so here we are.

There's a real upside scenario here for us if we pull this up.

Okay.

Let's get into it.

I'm going to start with one I have been paying more and more attention to.

And I think people are missing something here.

Dan and Mark, I feel like there's something people are not paying appropriate attention to.

Everybody is talking about a Chiefs three peat,

but what you people don't realize is that the Chiefs are positioned to have an absolutely legendary regular season this upcoming year.

On the Mina and Dominique podcast that I did recently, my spiciest take was that the Chiefs would win 16 games this upcoming season, becoming the third team in NFL history behind the 1972 Dolphins and the 2007 Patriots.

And what this really gets at, guys, is that I think people don't realize how unlucky the Chiefs are.

No, no, you're more condescending, Bill.

But you people.

You people just don't, you don't, you don't get it.

You don't understand.

You don't think about it.

You're too distracted by shiny things.

What you don't realize is that when you when you grind the tape, when you're out there in R

putting together the data, or Excel, if you're me, because I'm not talented enough to know R.

What happened here is the Chiefs were a remarkably unlucky team who also happened to win 11 games.

And some of the stuff was apparent at the time, but maybe wasn't quite as clear when you look at the data.

Maybe became clearer, I should say.

when you look at the data.

I mean, everyone knows the Chiefs wide receivers were a disaster last year, but they had the worst drop rate of any group of wide receivers in any season over the last decade.

And they have made major upgrades at receiver in Xavier Worthy and when he gets back to play, Hollywood Brown.

Mahomes was 28th in the NFL in QBR on deep passes last season.

That is not going to happen again.

I just don't think that's going to happen again.

And that fundamentally opens up that offense in a way that they have not been able to do since Tyreek Hill left.

They have found a running game since then.

Mahomes has transformed himself into an incredible short passer.

Now they have the ability to attack teens deep again.

They were on top of that.

Something we associate with bad football teams, a middling or mediocre turnover margin.

That was the Chiefs last year.

They had a minus 11 turnover margin for the Chiefs, a team that they don't have problems.

with turnovers.

And they had a really good defense.

They should not have had a crazy bad turnover margin.

They lost a turnover margin in nine different games last year.

That did not happen previously in the Mahomes and Andy Reid era.

And when they win the turnover battle, or they just don't lose the turnover battle, they're 56 and 8 as a franchise.

Since Mahomes took over as quarterback, that's like a 15-win pace for an entire season.

I don't think they're going to lose the turnover battle as much as they did a year ago.

And then the defense, we all saw it play well all year.

And yes, they did lose Legerius Sneed.

But this is the second youngest defense.

of any team in football last year on a snap-weighted basis.

And without Sneed, pretty much everybody else is back.

A lot of those players are entering their prime.

They They have a key player in the Chris Jones vein.

Guys, I feel like,

you know, you can't project any team to win 16 games.

You can't project any team to be that good.

There's some element of luck going into that.

But I don't believe we've had a team that is better positioned to have that kind of upside since the 2007 Patriots than the 2024 Chiefs.

That's something that you people just don't realize.

I may not not realize it, but you're helping me to realize it,

I would say, because I feel like with Kansas City, it's just been such a rugged challenge the past two years.

I can think back to two playoff runs ago when you have Patrick Mahomes on an ankle that would knock other quarterbacks out, and yet he is using his scrambling ability to win games in the clutch in a way that really sort of defies logic from a health body standpoint.

And last year, it's like they learned to win in completely different ways.

And you're kind of wondering, I always reference this team because it dazzled me when I was young.

Like the 89 Niners, a team that just learned how to kind of shape into who they were with a great quarterback, a great defense, a great cast around that quarterback, and an excellent coach.

And they started just to pummel teams left and right.

That has not been the Chiefs' experience.

They've had to grind out wins.

You know, last year, Patrick Mahomes, 15.5 passing points per game, the lowest of his career, and that had a lot to do with the environment around him.

They overcame so much that it's like you are kind of waiting for them to just flex their muscles and say, hold on, here's us at the A-plus version, minus some of the misfortunes, whispering about Travis Kelsey not being the same, you know, not having enough weapons.

Now we've added them, and it's like other teams, I think they break the spirit of other teams because they found a way to beat teams at their lesser so often that if you start to get them at the high version, high motor like aspect of this team, I don't, I'm with you.

I think that is very achievable.

All right, let me try to poke some holes in this then, because how many teams have won 16 or more games?

Well, certainly none since the schedule expanded.

But, you know, these are the truly special teams.

I mean,

I guess the most recent, well, the Panthers, they didn't win the Super Bowl, but they won 15 and one.

Obviously, the Patriots, 18 and 1.

That Redskins team that's come up recently on our show, a lot, Mark, because we were just talking about how they had an historic defense the year they won.

They went, I think they lost two games all year.

This is very, this is, once you get to this territory, you're a special team.

Now,

here are the holes.

I'll try to poke in it.

Please.

Xavier Worthy is the, if that guy hits the ground running and Rashi Rice plays a full season with his legal issues, yes, their offense is going to explode.

But neither of those are a given.

Travis Kelsey, yeah, I'm not going to hammer on the fact that he's a year older, but he is a year older.

And I guess I'm curious, were you come down on it, Bill, when you were watching him last year?

He certainly didn't have the season production-wise in 23 that he did in 22, but he was also a big-time player in the playoffs.

But still, age gets everyone.

The only thing I'll point out on the defense, I guess, would be in the secondary.

You know, Trent McDuffie is somebody that they can count on, but they're even saying, you know, the coaching staff, you know, Reid is like, we're not really sure who the other guys are right now, but we're going to figure it out.

So it's not like there's no question marks around around this team.

Which one of those brings you the most pause when you're like, shoot, I might not be right.

And they're more like an 11 or 12-win team.

Where are the holes here?

I would look at cornerback, post-Legerius scene.

I think you brought that up.

That's a legitimate concern.

I think they're in good shape relatively.

Like, you have Trent McDuffie, who to me is a superstar.

Like, that's a good place to start with.

They're going to be healthier at safety.

They lost Brian Cook the second half of last year.

He was a really good player for them.

And they're going to be able to use him this year with,

you know and have a deeper secondary to work with than they did towards the end of the season a year ago um it's a positive to me and it's going to have to look different there's going to be an adjustment period but i think if the offense is just blitzing people which i think they're capable of it's not a concern the the other one i might bring up is um left tackle where you have a rookie in kingsley sumataya as the one weak spot on an otherwise excellent offensive line they have said great things about him so far everyone seems to be thinking he's doing really well i have no doubt Andy Reid's going to help him a bit during the season.

But, you know, I don't think you can pencil in Suamataya as an instant superstar left tackle the way they have for, you know, good to great players elsewhere on their line.

But, you know, I think the interesting thing about this is, you know, we don't always see this happening in events, right?

I mean, go back to 2007.

The Patriots, that team, we weren't talking about that team as like a 16-0 team before the year.

I mean, Randy Moss had just been acquired from the the Raiders for a mid-round pick.

He was on a one-year deal, took a pay cut to go play for the Patriots.

Wes Welker hadn't even been a regular starter his time with the Dolphins on a terrible football team.

He had been like a slot receiver with middling numbers.

They traded, you know, a second-round pick and a seventh-rounder to acquire him instead of going through the RFA market.

You know, it's not like we were looking at those eyes thinking, oh man, they're going to be, you know, the most devastating offense in the history of football.

Like once we saw them week one, it was, oh, this is going to be terrifying.

Um, so, you know, I think

there's no perfect team, right?

Maybe you go back to, like Mark said, like the late 80s, early 90s, maybe you have teams that were just so deep before the salary cap hour that that wasn't the case, but every team has flaws, and I think relatively, the Chiefs' flaws are mitigated by what they have around them.

Um, left tackles may be a question, but the rest of the line is great.

Um, cornerback posting might be an issue, but I think they have a great defensive coordinator who's going to cover for that, and they have a front four that I think is good and getting better each and every season.

So, you know, it's going to be a little different maybe, but I think, you know, they have so many opportunities to cover for their weaknesses that on paper, they just look so good to me.

This feels like a good time for me to get that plug-in, by the way, on the underdog app that the Travis Kelsey free pick that we've been talking about still live until kickoff.

You just need half a yard.

I mean, he might have 200 and a half yards by the end of that game.

We shall see.

All right, Mark, give us something that, you know, the regs, the basics, they're not seeing.

Well, you know,

this matters to me as much as anything that's happening on the field.

And it's because it's the kind of thing that could impact our viewing of the sport if it goes well for decades.

And I think it's going to go well.

Coming off of a couple of years where I doubted that, I wondered if this was possible.

I wondered if this person would even actually chase this profession.

But I think that what people don't realize,

and you know what's annoying me that they don't,

that Tom Brady is going to step into this role, and he is going to thrive.

And it's going to begin this Sunday with the Browns versus the Cowboys.

Now, he is facing some challenges because we know what's going on.

This league doesn't want him to thrive.

That's how I feel.

Our league.

Our league,

they are tying him up with this Raiders' minority ownership.

Of course, the Chiefs don't want Tom Brady going into their complex and talking to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh.

don't want him doing that.

And no one in the AFC does.

But I think he could even overcome that situation until it gets ironed out.

There was an incredible clip.

I'll tell you, I never thought he was going to do this.

I thought he was maybe going to never become an announcer.

But there is a growing proof to me.

And what did I say, Sess Dog?

Sit tight, baby.

Because you know what?

$375 million talks.

It does talk.

It does talk.

But he also, you know, when all this started, other things were happening in his life.

I really think that Tom Brady

is absolutely driven to do this well.

There was a clip of him showing someone that for every single game he was ever in, in every season, he had these thick binders.

And instead of like, you know, the old investigator that has them like in a garage, you got to roll up the garage to go show some true crime, like some dusty file, like he's he pours through them non-stop to remember what happened, what's happening.

happening now, what will happen.

And I really believe that Tom Brady, even if he is prevented from some of these research aspects early on, is going to be able to translate his knowledge in a way.

That's what stopped like Johnny Unitis from being a good announcer.

That did stop Joe Montana.

Bill Walsh suddenly was pretty bland in the booth.

So it does require like Kevin Burkhart to come in and help him a lot.

And I don't like what happened to Greg Olson.

That part of it has always annoyed me.

Greg Olson is an absolute star, but that isn't entirely Tom Brady's fault.

I'm just telling you what, people do not realize.

They think like Tom Brady's the next guy that they can keep roasting off the summer roast, and he's going to fail.

And I think a bunch of people want to see him be less than perfect.

And we are kind of post-Tony Romo shine on some level.

We're ready for a new face.

And I think people don't realize that Tom Brady is going to be one of the biggest conversation points come Monday morning.

I love you, Tom.

I love Tom Brady.

Love you, bro.

I would be shocked.

I think it is a huge, not just media story, but a big NFL storyline this week.

I actually was going to talk about this, Mark, so we could kind of dovetail it, but

his debut in Cleveland is going to be the most scrutinized

telecast by an NFL announcer.

Like,

if you're older, you maybe Dennis Miller when he was on Monday Night Football, way back when, and this idea of like...

Brady is such a towering figure in the culture and also such a big target that, yes, if he is bad at this, he is going to get buried.

and Bill, I think like the thing that like kind of jumps out to me about it for a guy that's accomplished so much, that I'm kind of big fascinated by the psychology of Brady, that he seems like possessed with this desire to challenge himself and take big risks.

I'm still trying to figure out why he did that roast at the forum, for example, and

this broadcasting gig to do this at the same time he's trying to take on this ownership.

It just and then all the challenges that come with that and the restrictions that Mark's referring to i feel like this man is like an addict chasing another hit uh where he can go back and almost be like i'm the sixth round underdog again get help man

i feel like he's bored right i mean that's the best explanation for why he would do this or maybe when he signed his deal he anticipated being bored after he his professional career ended.

I'm of two minds of this, guys.

I mostly agree with Mark.

I think Tom Brady is going to be prepared.

I think he's going to be thoughtful.

I think Tom Brady is going to be a little charming.

Tom Brady has a little bit of charm to him when he wants to.

My only concern, my only reservation is that Tom Brady,

more than anybody,

since over the last year, to me, has been the guy saying, ah, the game is so much worse than it used to be.

The players,

they're not prepared as much.

The game is sloppy remember tom brady's tweeting during thursday night games and he wasn't playing he did not love those um and that's very different you're preparing for the game differently as a broadcaster as opposed to just watching it on your couch that's my only reservation is if tom brady comes into this practice and his his logic is you know i'm going to compare the game to what it was 20 years ago with i'm going to say this rose-colored glasses about what the game was actually like 20 years ago when you know i'm sure tom brady's games look great because he's incredible.

I guarantee you, those of us who had to watch, you know,

the Raiders every week for 20 years over that period, we didn't see great football.

Like

the Raiders 20 years ago were not as good as even a bad team now.

You know, I think that's going to come off very poorly.

And so...

To me, I think if it's just Tom Brady sticking to the game, sticking to what he sees, sticking to the actual performance of players, I think he's going to be great.

I think the big picture stuff, the context, the stuff that other announcers I think do really well.

I think a Greg Olson is a great example.

Someone who, you know, Greg Olson never,

he's very clearly analytically friendly.

He's very clearly a fan of the modern game.

He criticizes players when he needs to.

He's not someone who passes judgment on stuff.

He's not dismissive of what people are thinking.

He says, hey, this is what I'm going to call the game.

I'm going to let you make those decisions.

And I think that's my concern: I want to see if Tom Brady lets fans make their own choices about the quality of the game they're seeing.

All right, we'll see what happens.

Yes, Mr.

Grave Bigger.

Sorry to prolong this topic further, but any thoughts on the restrictions that Brady's under?

He can't criticize officials.

There's some other questions.

As I understand it, this is like a temporary

holdup and Fox isn't overly concerned with it.

And if Fox isn't overly concerned with it, I'm not going to be at this time.

But yeah, it does, it's quite a few restrictions that, again, given the responsibility that he has as the lead guy, he doesn't need another challenge in front of him.

So we'll see what we're doing.

I was walking through the Fox studios one day this summer.

You know, I came from Fox before we got to the bottom.

Oh, Bill, Bill, we poached Gravedigger.

We poached him hard from Fox.

Nice.

Yeah.

Just walking through the studio up to where we were taping our stuff.

And I go the normal way I'm always going.

And I see this big security bouncer guard guy in the middle of the hallway.

It's like, you got to go around.

And I'm like, I don't even know what around me.

Where do I go?

And I like walk, I find my way all the way around this building on the other end of the same hallway.

Another big security guard.

And I go into the studio and I'm like, what?

What's going on out there?

Like, why can't we go down our hallway?

Somebody goes, Brady's having a production meeting in that conference room.

So no one's allowed to even walk by the glass.

Oh, no.

It's like you can't make eye contact with me in the hallways.

Did I tell a story

with you guys in the past?

Wait, what was that?

I have a story about another Fox

who I was on eye contact with.

When I worked for IGN, the video game website, they were owned by Fox Interactive Media.

And one day, Rupert Murdoch flew into

Brisbane, California, and

visited the office.

And we were told you cannot make eye contact with Rupert Murdoch as he walks through the facility.

He interrupted my game.

I was playing, I think, WWF WrestleFest in the

greatest arcade game ever.

In the break room, and I had to stop and go back to my desk and work because I couldn't make eye contact with Roop.

So, you're a mere mortal.

It would be a common thing.

Right.

He's like the Ark of the Covenant if you stare into his eyes.

Yes.

And what you people don't know is that you lose a little bit of your life force every time someone looks at you in the eyes.

So maybe that checks out.

That's true.

That's what they said in the old, you weren't allowed to smile in photographs back in the day because your soul would be sucked out.

All that stuff is real.

All right.

Spinning back to the field.

I think one thing that you people don't realize, because you think you realize it, because you're like, oh, yeah, of course.

Like, I know this guy has been going high in fantasy drafts, and obviously he's got a ton of potential entering year two, but like, but you don't really realize, and I'm kind of embarrassed for you that you don't realize it, that Bijan Robinson is about to tear the NFC apart.

I

really,

really want to see this guy get a fair shake because playing in an Arthur Smith offense and the backwards nature of the way that offense was run at times last year with bad QB play and then a backfield that too often had Bijan on the sideline while Corder Earl Patterson was getting carries or Tyler Algier, who I like, but come on, he's not B.J.

Robinson.

Or, you know, trick plays being drawn up for John U.

Smith for Christ's sake.

And it was just like, do we understand here that this is a generational talent at running back?

I'm I'm picturing Bill.

Remember, there was that shot.

It might have even been from week one where they had the over-the-head wire shot of him doing a perfect 360 spin move on the way to the end zone.

And it reminded me of only a few running backs

when they came into the league, you were just like, this guy's different.

So, so much is different in Atlanta now.

And so much of the oxygen around Atlanta got sucked up by the Michael Pennix draft controversy.

And so much has been overlooked of like how good a quarterback, quarterback, I'm not saying great a quarterback, but how good a quarterback Kirk Cousins is.

And he's healthy and he's been taking all the snaps and he's going to be back.

In fact, I read in the athletic, who is a reporter?

I want to give him the pop that he deserves.

It was reported that he threw a pick six in practice, right?

And he decided to run down

the defensive back.

And he was clocked at 18 miles per hour on the

running after the DB.

And it was Josh Kendall, by the way, of the athletic.

And he was annoyed because he was clocked at 19 miles per hour pre-injury.

So, yes, he is still working his way back.

But the fact that he felt comfortable sprinting down the field in a damn practice, I thought that was a good sign, right?

So you have this very proficient quarterback who knows how to run an offense.

He's a veteran.

You have the skilled players.

And I'm not here to buy in on the Kyle Pitts actually will-be great thing, but he'll be better, right?

And Drake London, he is going to benefit.

The whole offense is going to benefit, but who's going to benefit most?

It's going to be Bijan Robinson.

But because in addition to those upgrades, Zach Robinson has now arrived.

Bye-bye, Arthur Smith.

Good luck to you, by the way, up where you're at these days in Western PA.

Here in Atlanta, Zach Robinson loves leaning on a running back, and that's my guy, and he's my dude, and he's getting the rock.

So I think that Bijan is going to get the touches that he needs.

And by the way, with all the somewhat disappointment on some level, he still had 1,400 total yards last year.

Bijan, I think Bijan, who, by the way, told Kay Adams in an interview this summer that he's been told by Robinson that he's going to be used like Christian McCaffrey, I do not put Christian McCaffrey-like production out of the picture with a player this special in this offense in that division.

So 2,000 total yards and north of, you know,

13 total touchdowns in play.

And you guys don't realize that this is me not realizing that i should have used my offensive player of the year prediction on bijan i did cd lamb so i'm doing a mulligan baby

it's so you don't realize that i didn't even realize it okay bill ultimate

um i i mostly agree i mean i i i clearly think um something that you people don't realize is that i'm not really sure arthur smith's scheme was really all that modern.

You know, we saw teens on the,

you know, who are typically on the cutting edge.

The Rams come to mind for me, they move towards more gap-heavy schemes last year.

We saw them get bigger offensive linemen and go with more of the gap stuff.

And Arthur Smith's scheme is really a zone scheme.

You know, he runs a little bit of power and stuff like that here and there, but a lot of it was, you know, using Robinson as a decoy.

He was using him on zone runs.

And I think there's the opportunity to use him in more power runs, and that might get more out of him.

I mean, he is

one of those rare players where he can be explosive, you know,

in a scheme where you have to be a little slower as a running back.

He has the acceleration.

He has the burst.

We all know that.

And I think

last year heading into the season,

we heard so much about how B.

John Robinson was not going to be just a traditional running back.

He's going to be an athlete.

We're going to line him up all around the field.

The problem is running backs are not good at that stuff.

The way you want to use a running back is as a running back.

You don't want to use him as a slot receiver.

And Basion Robinson was terrible when he lined up in the slot.

You don't want to use him as a split out player.

That's a decoy and teams knew it and he rarely got the ball in those situations.

You want to use him as a running back.

Throw to him a ton.

Use him in the McCaffrey role, but start with that in the backfield.

And I believe Zach Robinson is going to do that.

I don't think there is the same pressure on him and on Raheem Morris to use Basin Robinson in some crazy role because it took him in the top 10.

The guy who was at least partially responsible for that is now gone.

So

I think he is an incredible talent, and I have lots of reasons to believe the situation is going to be better for him in 2024 than it was in 2023.

So I didn't realize it, but I do agree with it now that I heard the argument.

Mark, do you agree as well?

Yeah, I think

it's almost like we're misremembering what he pulled off last year in an offense where it kind of like back in the day when you'd be playing fantasy and like Mike Shanahan would use like so many different running backs, like it was a clown car, and it was just a frustrating way to run your offense if you were trying to be a civilian playing fantasy.

And like Arthur Smith was last year's equivalent of that, where it's like, why is any player I'm looking at being used the way they're being used for the most part?

And I think there's going to be more common sense.

But you also did go out and get a competent veteran quarterback who is capable of a lot of work through the air.

So it is still a team where you look at the roster, it's like there are a lot of mouths to feed here.

So let's just lean into Bijan as much as we can.

I think that's a very sensible destination for him, Dan.

I mean, he could do more than he did last year, but he also piled up a ton of yardage.

Yeah, Beyond Cousins' physical abilities as a quarterback, like his ability to read defenses, check into things that make more sense, give Bijan just opportunities that, you know, with all due respect to Desmond Ritter and Taylor Heineke, I don't know if that was happening either.

So a lot to be bullish about there.

Bill, give us another one.

Let's go a little quicker around this time.

Okay.

Okay, I'll make this one quicker.

Everybody is focused on what's happening with the offensive contract situations that have now been resolved, by all accounts, in San Francisco.

But what you people don't realize is that the defensive uncertainty is what people need to be paying attention to in San Francisco because there are issues at every level with this defense or question marks about every level, I should say, on this defense.

Start with the injuries.

Dre Greenlaw coming off a torn Achilles in the Super Bowl is going to start on the physically unable to perform list.

Talanoa Hufanga, their excellent safety, tore his ACL last year.

He's playing early in the year, but not sure he's going to be playing 100% of the snaps.

This team could be starting, not starting, but at least playing Tracy Walker, who just got cut by the Lions at the end of camp for meaningful snaps in week one.

The secondary is a major question mark for this team.

Logan Ryan and Teshawn Gibson were playing pretty much every down for them in the Super Bowl, guys in their mid-30s, guys who don't typically play that late in their careers.

They're gone.

Isaac Yadem, who was really kind of a replacement-level cornerback, a waiver wire guy before he had a really good year for the Saints last year, is going to be their cornerback.

They signed Rocky Sin, who struggled to kind of play for the Ravens last year.

He got hurt early before the season and then didn't really get his job back on a regular basis.

I mean, they're going with, you know, not replacement level guys, but, you know, guys who are signing one-year deals, who are veterans, who have had limited success in the past.

And then up front, Chase Young, who they traded for, did not work out.

He left in free agency.

Arik Armstead got cut as a cap casualty.

I mean, they signed Leonard Floyd and Yidder Grossmatos.

Two guys, again,

okay edge players.

I think Floyd's underrated.

Had a good year for the Bills last year, although he did

cost them a game where he was on the field as 12th man against the Broncos.

They both suffered knee injuries in the preseason.

They're not serious injuries or short-term injuries, but they're already banged up heading into the season.

And,

you know, they changed defensive coordinator.

Steve Goltz got fired.

They tried to bring in Del Belichick.

That didn't work.

This is a team where I have no doubt the offense is going to be good.

I have serious concerns that this defense is a championship caliber defense.

And I believe if they get off to a slow start, you people don't realize they're going to have to be in the trade market at the deadline because they are all in to win a title with Brock Purdy this year before he gets prohibitively more expensive in 2025.

Yeah, and we just saw the Trent Williams deal, the Ayuk deal.

We talked about this gravedigger last week, the amount of pressure.

We talked about this, the Ravens at the top of this show, sitting on this team's shoulders.

So the fact that they have to kind of figure out this defense on the fly, as a Jet fan, I have to say that I kind of like when we're catching the Niners at a time of transition and when they have key offensive players that missed large chunks of the summer and are trying to kind of play catch up here, famous last words.

But that's where I'm at now.

I just, I know, Mark, you, for instance, took the Niners famously many years to win the Super Bowl and get over the hump.

This year, I know you don't even have them winning the division.

So I'm assuming that you might have realized on some level what Bill is saying here.

I think that's, you really outlined that effectively because I think one thing with the Niners is

there's been so much drama during camp with these holdouts and these situations, and we're so focused on what we saw from the offense in the preseason.

It's like, now wait a minute, like the defense has kind of been pushed into the background, and there's a lot of transition.

The only thing I'd say is that because, like a lot of good teams, they've been through a lot of coordinators, they've been thin at cornerback before in the past, they seem to find a way to, it doesn't seem to hamstring them like in terms of the regular season.

Like, I struggle to, I think there could be a little bit of a letdown, but But I struggle to see them suddenly becoming like a complete porous operation But when you're on your third or fourth coordinator It at one point it doesn't work out at one point You know and I didn't really work out with Steve Wilkes you could tell that Shanahan and Steve Wilkes were not on the same page for a big chunk of that so it adds another

Hurdle for them and it's a team right now with a lot going on at the moment and At some point, you know I've also played three or four more games than every other team year after year When does it catch up?

I mean, I don't think it's going to, but you're pointing it to real evidence of depth issues and personnel that they weren't in this place a couple years ago.

All right, Mark, what's your next one?

You know, every year there is a team that,

whether it's a surprise or not, like they jump out to a record that people weren't expecting it.

And I can think back to when I was a kid and I would, you know,

You didn't have the internet back then.

You had like Sports Illustrated and it would arrive on Thursday afternoon.

But I was also the kid that like would go to the library or like used books places and collect old school sports illustrateds and this one from before when i ever watched football the 1979 tampa bay buccaneers check out this cover this always stuck in my head tampa bay because this was a terrible football team for historically

from their formation but tampa bay unbeaten untied and unbelievable they started 5-0 and it surprised everyone i think this team that i'm going to point to is a little bit less of a surprise because we're expecting Jim Harbaugh to be a change agent for the Chargers in Los Angeles.

But they were,

when he went to the Niners, 6-10 the year before, and a disaster.

This Chargers team was a disaster a year ago, but he came in and he had that special sauce right away.

And I can just see that, whether it's an SI cover, that this team jumps out to a crazy record.

Look at this schedule.

And I'm saying I think that they can go 9-0.

If the Chiefs are going to have one loss, maybe it's this.

They have the Raiders, the Panthers,

the Steelers, then that Chiefs game, then Denver, the Cardinals, the Saints, the Browns, and the Titans.

If this is the Chargers team that I think they can become under Jim Harbaugh, that is your first nine games.

And I feel like they could be that team that, like, we kind of, I mean, I have them as a playoff team.

I don't think that's the craziest thing to think.

It's kind of like they underachieved massively under Staley, and it was a very frustrating watch with Justin Herbert and everything.

But if they can put it together, I feel like this is the team that jumps out to this insane record that catapults them into like a higher seed than you'd expect.

I think they could potentially win the division.

I put them in the AFC title game, but part of it is because this schedule, and because that's what Jim Harbaugh does.

He comes in and changes everything.

And I kind of feel like that vibe has played out with him so far.

So I'm high on a huge record right out of the gate.

I love this.

I don't want to say that I realized this because you people did not realize this, but I'm very optimistic about the Chargers.

A classic example to me of a team that we're going to be sitting here a year from now as a public and saying, How did we not see this coming?

Mark, you brought up the schedule, third easiest, I believe, per ESPN's Football Power Index.

A team that was better than their record last year, three and eight in one score games.

They had a seven-win point differential for a five-12 team.

And Jim Harbaugh, I mean, this is his thing.

I mean, people forget how bad that Niners team was.

You know, the fans were training.

We want

David Carr,

Alex Smith, who left after that year in free agency and said there's no way he could envision being back.

Harbaugh brought him back.

A year later,

he was the bell of the ball.

He was getting cheered candlestick.

by the you know by fans in that crazy playoff game still my favorite game i've seen over the last 20 years against the saints um in the divisional round.

That team had not had a winning season in eight years, and they go 13 and three, go to the NFC Champions Games his first year.

Okay, maybe the Niners were an underrated team.

He goes to Michigan, a place where they had had one 10-win season in the prior eight years.

They had won five games the prior year, doubles their win total in his first season.

This is a guy who gets more out of the talent you have than the prior coach.

And I think if he turns them around in close games, I think if he gets more out of them, I think they're much better up front than they were after adding Jill Alt to the mix.

I think this is a really good football team, and I think Mark is absolutely correct.

I think they're going to go off to a very hot start.

And what I said is by week six, by week six, people are going to be insisting that they were on the Chargers bandwagon all along when it was being driven by Mr.

Sessler himself.

Good job, Sess Dog.

I think we all had them in the playoffs and our predictions on Monday, but this, I didn't look at their schedule the way you looked at it, and it does set up well.

And I'm not even going to do the thing that's like not based on any logic, just like, but they're the Chargers.

They are the Chargers, and there's a reason.

I think part of the reason, Bill, that some of the, there's not as much hype around them

is because people are so sick of getting burned by saying the Chargers are going to be good.

And then it makes no sense to them when they're fighting for a playoff spot at 8-7 in December again that you just assume that's going to happen.

But, I mean, everything's there.

It's all there.

By the way, that Buccaneers SI cover, can you pull that up again, Gravedigger?

This just brought back some bad bad memories for me.

I grew up in Rockland County

outside of New York City and

I went to Pearl River High School and our rival, you know, everybody grows up and your high school has a rival.

Our bitter rival was Nanuette, okay?

The Nanuette Golden Knights.

And we hated Nanuette and Nanuette, Nanuette hated us.

And every October we would play the little brown jug game to decide who was superior.

And occasionally there would be fist fights in the McDonald's parking lot on Route 59 between the Pirates of Pearl River and the Golden Knights of Nanuette.

I just, I bring this up because in 1989,

the Nanuette football team won the state title.

And

they had this

motto that you couldn't avoid it.

Every restaurant, whether in Nanuette, they had a big photo of this goddamn Nanuette team.

And it said, unbeaten, untied, unscored upon.

and you know stick it up your butt nanuette because uh those days aren't coming back it ain't ever happening again so take down those signs it's been over you know 40 years almost anyway that was a little personalized nanuette peaked four decades ago

exactly it ain't 89 anymore golden knights

all right uh close it out bill barnwell with one more oh do you have one you want to do then you want me to finish it up i had a second one uh nobody wants to hear me saying that uh uh that that the Jets are going to be fine because Will McDonald has a great spin move and Hassan Reddick can go hang out with the Nanuette Golden Knights of 1989.

And I also wanted to talk a little Brady, which Mark hit, so I clear the floor for you, Bill.

Okay.

Everyone is excited about the Texans and their upside with C.J.

Stroud in year two and all of the moves they made this offseason.

But what you people seem to have forgotten is that the Jacksonville Jaguars were a great football team until the moment Trevor Lawrence couldn't walk anymore.

This was a team that went 14 and 4 between their bye week in 2022 and the week Trevor Lawrence got injured in 2023.

They were 8-3 at that time.

They were in position to be the top seed in the AFC.

In that game, Lawrence got hurt.

They lose to the Bengals.

They never recovered.

And I know we're hyped about the Texans, but I feel like this is a situation where the the offseason has turned a good team into a great team.

They were the fourth oldest roster on a snap-weighted basis in football last year.

They were not a young team the way the Lions and the Packers are.

They have young superstars, no question.

But the guys around them are veterans on short-term deals.

They jump from the third easiest schedule to the fourth toughest schedule.

You people think the AFC South is the Texans for the taking.

That is not true.

I think the Jaguars should be the favorites in the AFC.

Man, and that one's directly a shot across the bow of Heathcall.

Not so much with Gravedere because he lives in a dreamland where the Titans are the favorites of the South.

But Mark and I are both very high on the Texans this year.

Mark, you were a big fan of the Texans during their rise last year.

But I think it does get overlooked, yeah, that this team, even if they weren't a dominating outfit, they were in very good position for the playoffs before Lawrence's injury.

The Brian Thomas of it all, you know, how important is he, Bill, in terms of like, is he a guy that has to hit the ground running for this offense to be proficient and win games?

He does, but I think it's more about the clarity of their receivers.

I mean, Doug Peterson has this habit of sort of gathering the same kind of receiver and creating a mess on offense.

You think back to the Philadelphia days, there was that year they traded for Golden Tate, and they had about like, they had like four receivers three of whom wanted to play in the slot and so it just led to a an offense where you did not have consistent you know roles for your receivers and guys were being put in the wrong situations last year that was the case calvin ridley was playing as an ex-receiver that's not his role he should be playing in the slot he should be playing inside moving around he's better as sort of that that versatile player now this year they have sort of defined roles for all their guys you have christian kirk in the slot you have um gabe davis coming in for zay jones classic z receiver.

He's going to create space for you by getting downfield.

You can create stuff underneath him.

He's going to hit big plays occasionally.

And then you have Thomas has to be the X.

And that is the most important role in a way.

But a guy who has the body type to do it, the physicality to do it, the speed to do it.

If he's that...

He's a good receiver from day one, this offense should not have many holes because they also added Mitch Morse, I think, a very underrated addition this offseason at center, fixing a spot that had been trouble for them in years past.

So

I think Thomas doesn't have to be Justin Jefferson as a rookie, but if you people just realize that he can be a solid ex-receiver, I think they have all the other spots on the roster filled with players who fit those spots.

I think also, I mean, like, they play the Colts in week one.

That's one run, like, I think this tech, I'm high on the Texans.

I have them as my Super Bowl team.

That's feeling less and less original by the week.

But it's like the Colts are the kind of team that could teach them a lesson right out of the gate.

This is not just going to be handed to you.

And, you know, not to go down the Titans' avenue too deep, but I think that they're going to be a tougher team, better offensive line.

And, like, can that kind of a team steal a game from the Texans?

Yes, that division, which was flying junk a couple years ago, and, you know, it's led by the Jaguars there as well,

it's like there aren't a lot of tough outs or a lot of easy outs.

So I think the Texans' record and the way they finished last season, it'll be a tougher test, but I do think you've got the quarterback, the coach, a really deep roster.

They develop players.

You've got the offensive coordinator.

There's a lot of ingredients in 2024 that I like for them and how quickly they could grow and mature.

Big Lawrence here.

He got paid, obviously,

and he was touted as a generational quarterback.

And I think maybe, again, when you talk about why are the Jags not getting much love, this kind of feels like the first summer into the season where some people are backing off a little bit on, you know, buying in on Lawrence as a generational type, you know, top 10, top five QB.

But he's still

very young, Bill.

And like, if he's in an offense that, like you're saying, you think is better set up for success and he has better injury luck, there is,

I mean, I feel it, and

I assume you do as well, that there's still a next level that he can unlock as a quarterback.

Yeah, I mean, we were sitting here last year.

I'm assuming I'm not maybe on this show, but like certainly on plenty of shows, the idea that Trevor Lawrence could be the MVP was hardly out of wrong possibility.

He was coming off of a second half that was every bit as hot as Jordan Love's second half was last year for the Packers.

And, you know, it didn't work out because receivers also dropped passes at the highest rate of any offense in football.

That's not Chiefs were the highest wide receiver drop rate, but Jaguars across running back wide receiver and tight end.

You know, that could happen again.

Defensive line could be banged up the way it was a year ago and not ever really coalesce, but I think the pieces around him are better.

And I believe that we're going to see a healthier Trevor Lawrence.

I think a more confident Trevor Lawrence with the receivers he has to work with.

And I think you're going to see more big plays from this offense.

So I am

more optimistic than most.

Maybe Trevor Lawrence is not going to be a Hall of Famer the way that I think a lot of people thought he might be when he was the top prospect for really two years before he entered the NFL.

But I do think he is a guy who can be a top 10 quarterback.

He was a top 10 quarterback in that 14 and 4 stretch stretch.

He was great second half of 2022.

He was good.

Not great, but good

first half of 2023.

I think he can continue to take a step forwards.

He still has a lot.

You know, it is still very early in his career.

I think that, you know, he has more upside than I think it feels right now because of what we saw from him when he was banged up in the second half of last season.

All right.

There you go.

We hope everybody can take criticism because she got buried on this set.

We hope you people can take criticism.

And perhaps, yes, we'll look back at the end of the season and see if any of these takes actually worked out in our favor.

And we will speak about them ceaselessly.

And if we're wrong, it might be a little more quiet.

And that's just how this operation unfurls.

Bill, you've said it all.

Where could people read you?

What do you got coming up over on the Worldwide Leader?

On ESPN.com.

I have my playoff bracket coming in this week.

Went back through history and found that typically in a 14-team playoff, six teams drop out every year, six new teams every year.

So who are those six teams going to be?

I wrote about that for ESPN this week.

I believe I'm on Around the Horn on Wednesday this week, so you can check that out and then

getting ready for the season to start.

I mean, I don't know what I'm going to be doing, but I know I'll be writing over at ESPN, so check that out.

Awesome.

Thank you so much, Bill.

You lived up to the hype once more.

And the next time you see and hear from us, it will be with Jordan Rodrigue and Michael Sean Dugar of the Athletic, and we'll be previewing week one.

It's all happening, it's all happening.

Until next time, you know what you must do.

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