Trump’s bid to take down the 10-year yield

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Speaker 4 Interest rates, but not the Federal Reserve kind.

Speaker 4 From American public media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 4 In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdoll. It is Thursday today, the 6th of February.
Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 4 We begin today... by flipping through the well-used folder that we keep around here labeled, sure,

Speaker 4 you you can try to fight the market.

Speaker 4 Our protagonist at this time is Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who told reporters this week the Trump administration isn't really so much focused on the Federal Reserve and how and whether it's going to cut interest rates, but rather the White House is just going to work on bringing bond yields down, specifically the yield on the tenure Treasury note.

Speaker 4 Marketplace's Sabri Benishor gets us going with why the administration might want to bring bond yields down and how that might go.

Speaker 6 It makes sense that the president would want ten-year yields to come down. Plenty of people would love that.

Speaker 7 So a lot of consumers feel

Speaker 8 what happens in ten-year rates.

Speaker 6 Brian Rayling is head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The rate of return on U.S.

Speaker 4 ten-year bonds influences interest rates all over the economy, credit cards, car loans, mortgages.

Speaker 8 So if the ten-year yield goes lower, then mortgage rates are going to go lower. So, you know, people are going to be able to better affect.

Speaker 6 So how might one bring down the yield on 10-year bonds? Here's what Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told Bloomberg today.

Speaker 3 With the president's policies of energy dominance, deregulation, and non-inflationary growth, I think that the 10-year is going to naturally come down.

Speaker 6 When he says energy dominance there, Besant is referring to the administration's desire for the U.S. to produce more oil, bring down energy prices and lower inflation.

Speaker 6 Inflation, it just so happens, can drive up treasury yields. So bringing inflation down can bring yields down.

Speaker 7 We wouldn't see that for quite a number of years.

Speaker 6 Ken Kuttner is professor of economics at Williams College.

Speaker 8 You can reduce the oil price, but then once it stabilizes, then inflation is kind of back where it started.

Speaker 6 So drill, baby, drill might not actually bring yields down. There is another way to do it.

Speaker 4 Again, Brian Railing.

Speaker 10 Shrink the deficit or the amount we have to borrow.

Speaker 6 If the government isn't as desperate to borrow money, it won't have to offer as high a return on bonds to get people to lend to it.

Speaker 8 Then, yes, you're likely going to see the 10-year yield fall lower because we don't have to issue as many 10-year bonds to fund the debt and the deficit.

Speaker 6 Besides cutting government spending could do this, but shrinking the deficit is also a heavy lift for an administration planning tax cuts that could cost several trillion dollars, even with an Elon Musk-led department of government efficiency.

Speaker 6 Guilaba is chief fixed income strategist with Janny Montgomery Scott.

Speaker 9 I am skeptical that cost cuts will be large enough to make a material difference in the size of the budget deficit.

Speaker 6 He says the administration has good intentions with a dose of wishful thinking. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 Wall Street today, a little of this, little of that.

Speaker 4 We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 4 One of the brighter spots in this economy over the past couple of years has been worker productivity. How much stuff we're making compared to how much time we spend doing it.

Speaker 4 We learned this morning productivity in the fourth quarter of last year was up 1.2%. That's annualized, of course.
It is the ninth straight quarter of growth.

Speaker 4 Economists keep a real close eye on productivity because growing it,

Speaker 4 having a more productive economy, is a more prosperous economy. Incomes go up and along with them, standards of living.
Higher productivity can also help keep a lid on inflation.

Speaker 4 So Marketplace Justin Ho looked at a few of the factors that have been pushing productivity up of late and he started at a machine shop in Simi Valley, California.

Speaker 12 The shop I'm standing in is a training center run by the Simi Institute for Careers and Technology. Liz Valdez is a student here.

Speaker 12 She's setting up a tool called a vertical mill so she can shape a piece of metal.

Speaker 13 This is a piece of aluminum right here, which is a lot more malleable than like steel.

Speaker 12 Valdez used to wait tables, but last summer she quit and became a full-time student at the machine shop.

Speaker 12 A big reason she signed up for this class, she says, is because a job in manufacturing will pay much more than she was making waiting tables, especially if she's fully trained and certified before she even starts.

Speaker 13 The more you do it, the the more you practice, it becomes easier and you kind of, I'm so glad that I can, you know, kind of trip and fall here and not over there.

Speaker 12 Hiring someone who can hit the ground running improves productivity because it can help a business boost output without sacrificing much time, says Agar Linskop, the class instructor.

Speaker 3 Typically, most employers, if they're in the position of hiring, they need someone to come in and do work and not take one of their already skilled machinists out of the production line to train new people.

Speaker 12 Companies can also improve productivity by investing in technology.

Speaker 14 We placed on order a new state-of-the-art piece of equipment that'll be arriving here in Q1.

Speaker 12 That's Wayne Woodard, CEO of Argonaut Manufacturing Services, a company in Carlsbad, California that manufactures drugs and diagnostic tests for healthcare companies.

Speaker 12 The equipment he bought is an automated filling line that packages drugs into vials, syringes, and cartridges.

Speaker 14 That's the final stage in that manufacturing process for delivering those products into the market.

Speaker 12 Woodard says all of this has traditionally been done by hand. Automating it helps take human error out of the equation, which means fewer mistakes and more product.

Speaker 12 It also speeds things up and requires fewer workers to begin with, which could lead to fewer jobs.

Speaker 14 So you're down to sort of three or four folks on a line, maybe a little bit more, depends on how big the line is, where before you might have had, you know, 10, 12 humans doing that kind of work.

Speaker 12 Not every business can improve productivity with a machine. Matt Hetrick runs an accounting firm called Harmony Group.

Speaker 12 He says the only way he can make his business more productive is to make his staff better at their jobs. And that requires years of experience.

Speaker 15 If you're a tax CPA, for example, your first tax season is the first time you've seen how different forms work, how these conceptual ideas actually play out for a client.

Speaker 15 You simply can't teach that in a book. You have to learn how to do it.

Speaker 12 So Hetrick says his strategy for boosting productivity is to retain the staff he has so workers stick with the company and have time to develop.

Speaker 12 Hedrick says he gives every employee a clear plan to move up within the company. He also hosts regular training sessions and weekly office hours.
And he lets all of his staff work from home.

Speaker 15 We find that that's amazing for retention because what we're saying to our staff is, hey, you come here. We're going to treat you like professionals.
We're not going to micromanage you.

Speaker 15 Yes, you're working from home, but yes, you are a professional who's on a growth path.

Speaker 12 As a result, Hedrick says accountants who've stuck stuck with the company are able to take on more clients, which means the business can pull in more revenue.

Speaker 12 He says that's helping his firm stay afloat, especially since right now he feels like charging his clients more is not an option.

Speaker 15 We don't have pricing power to drive pricing up, so we have to be more productive to sell the same service at approximately the same price.

Speaker 12 And he says higher productivity also helps him pay his workers higher wages. I'm Justin Ho from Marketplace.

Speaker 4 Just about two years ago, I had a chat with Mara Herpkersman and Emily Billegas about their then new restaurant slash wine bar called The Ruby Fruit.

Speaker 4 It was the first lesbian bar to open in Los Angeles since 2017, and I asked Mara back then how that was possible.

Speaker 16 It is pretty well known that women have a harder time getting capital in business.

Speaker 4 True for you?

Speaker 16 Yes and no.

Speaker 16 I mean, we're not fully funded yet.

Speaker 16 So I can definitely speak to being a new business owner that it's difficult to get funding, at least from banks and things, because you need to have assets and other capital, which doesn't make any sense because we're just getting started.

Speaker 16 So we're still trying to kind of put some pieces together as far as that goes.

Speaker 4 They bootstrapped the place, opened with a single $25,000 loan from a friend, so no reserves to tie them over.

Speaker 4 And about a month ago, right after the fire started, they posted on Instagram that they were closing their doors. Not permanently, they hoped, more of a pause.
Anyway, I took a swing by last week.

Speaker 3 Welcome back. Hi.
Good to see you. Good to see you again.

Speaker 3 Good to see you again.

Speaker 3 Oh, you know. Well, we'll get it.
Hang on. That's why we're here.
What a stupid question to start with, Pat.

Speaker 4 The place looks pretty much the same. Bright pink walls, books and wine bottles on some shelves.

Speaker 4 There were people working in the kitchen, temporarily renting it out to make meals for first responders.

Speaker 4 So how did you come to the decision to pause? The way I read the post on social was the fires were

Speaker 4 a thing that happened and it was a bad thing that happened, but it had been sort of a series of events.

Speaker 16 Yeah.

Speaker 16 You know, when you lose a week of sales, which we did because of the fires,

Speaker 16 there was no money coming in.

Speaker 16 And for us, because we have no reserves, I mean, when no money comes in,

Speaker 16 you don't have any money. Right.
And things started, I mean, to back it up of what you're referring to, like things started to get tricky for us, like right when the kind of Hollywood strikes were,

Speaker 16 you know, an issue in LA. And that was the first moment that we really kind of were starting to start.

Speaker 4 And that was 2023-ish.

Speaker 1 Exactly.

Speaker 3 like the fall 2023.

Speaker 16 So six months after you guys opened give or take right and we had you know our first year we were really fortunate and we kind of rode the wave of like opening excitement

Speaker 16 and the money that we made our first year we were able to pay off the business which was very graciously funded by the previous owners but paying that off coincided with the strikes happening and this like slowdown of what we saw slowdown in restaurants all over Los Los Angeles.

Speaker 16 This wasn't a Ruby fruit problem, this was like a Los Angeles restaurant economy problem.

Speaker 4 Before any of this happened, well, between the strikes and the fires, how were you guys doing?

Speaker 4 I mean, I don't come down here a lot, but when I drive by on sunset during y'all's business hours, it seems pretty crowded.

Speaker 16 Yeah, I mean, overall, it was like really great. We have a really amazing community following, and we are really fortunate to have like a very dedicated clientele.

Speaker 16 But again, I think it's hard to overstate just how dependent we are on

Speaker 16 every single dollar that every single person who comes in here spends.

Speaker 16 And some days our sales are truly down to the dollar in order to break even.

Speaker 4 Which to me translates into margins, right? Yeah.

Speaker 16 Yeah. Exactly.
Labor is expensive as it should be because people should get paid what they're worth, of course.

Speaker 16 But the cost of food, the cost of rent, the cost of utilities, all these things are really expensive right now. People feel it when they go to the grocery store.
It's no different for us.

Speaker 4 This is none of my business and you should never take business advice from me.

Speaker 4 Why aren't you selling cocktails?

Speaker 16 We would love to get a full liquor license and that has been cost prohibitive for us.

Speaker 4 How much is a liquor license?

Speaker 16 Well, first of all, you can't just go and buy one.

Speaker 3 There's a certain amount that are available.

Speaker 16 And so you have to find one.

Speaker 16 And between the fees and how much they cost, that can easily run you $150,000 like if you're lucky seriously oh correct and that doesn't even this is why Kai's not in business

Speaker 16 well and not in the restaurant business specifically

Speaker 16 don't open a restaurant and they're right and they're doing it they're right but also that doesn't even cover how the bar needs to be modified in order to accommodate the possibility of serving cocktails so what's the plan what are you gonna do because the place is still here it's the lights are literally the lights are still on

Speaker 4 You've paused, but

Speaker 4 how are you going to get somewhere?

Speaker 16 Well, I think the first thing to note is that we have obligations, right? We have a lease, but we hope to reopen.

Speaker 16 We hope that this is a step for us to take a minute and sort of regroup and assess what was going really well and what we needed to fix in order to move forward.

Speaker 4 Okay, so let's interrogate that for a second. What was going really well? You had a community.

Speaker 16 Yes, yep, community engagement. And I think this speaks to the next part of what we need to address in order to move forward.

Speaker 16 The space and the community and the needs of all of that became, I think, so much larger than we thought. If you look around, there's about 30 seats here.
Okay, give or take, yep.

Speaker 16 So there's that, there's physical space, but then there's also this sort of

Speaker 16 need

Speaker 16 when a thing you built

Speaker 16 immediately sort of outgrows what you can offer.

Speaker 4 That's such a good problem to have.

Speaker 16 It is. But now the biggest piece of this puzzle is money is that we started, this is a marketplace after all.

Speaker 16 We started with nothing and in order to grow, we need more money behind us. And so we are right now

Speaker 16 looking for an investor or some sort of financial backing to help us bring this, you know, larger project now to fruition.

Speaker 4 You're not necessarily only looking for investment and interest from your community, right? You know, I mean,

Speaker 4 I'm overstating, but you'll take money from anybody?

Speaker 3 I think

Speaker 16 I think it's important to note that the Ruby fruit cannot ride on the backs of a marginalized community, and it is necessary that we offer seats at the table to folks outside of our community so that they can support a queer space.

Speaker 4 What's your biggest worry?

Speaker 3 That you won't be able to do it, I guess? Oh my gosh.

Speaker 16 That's a great question.

Speaker 16 I have like 4,000 words.

Speaker 3 I was going going to say there's one more. I'm sure there are a lot more

Speaker 3 beds

Speaker 16 that I don't even want to get into, sort of the state of things, you know, in this country right now and globally.

Speaker 16 I think my biggest worry is that we will

Speaker 16 not be able to put all of these pieces together.

Speaker 16 And pardon my use of like a very tired old cliche, but it's like this chicken or the egg thing where I don't know what part needs to happen first or does that need to happen first in order for this to happen.

Speaker 3 It all needs to happen kind of all at once. Right, right.

Speaker 16 And I think my biggest worry is the time constraints because we are really on very limited time frame here and we ultimately probably only have till the end of March.

Speaker 4 That's like tomorrow.

Speaker 3 You're right.

Speaker 16 Yeah. So

Speaker 16 that's the thing that worries me the most. I know that we can garner support from our community.

Speaker 16 I know that we can somehow find this money, but I'm worried that we can't do all of these things in time.

Speaker 4 Here's a very practical question. How are you doing it? Are you just leveraging your contacts and saying, Do you know anybody with a quarter million dollars?

Speaker 16 I mean, we have a lot of folks who have reached out to us to offer support, and so we are reaching out to our community and asking for help in ways that we have not asked for before.

Speaker 16 I think Emily and I have been a little bit stubborn and sort of we can handle this ourselves, and that is simply just not true any longer.

Speaker 16 And so, we need help, and that's what we're doing right now: reaching out for help.

Speaker 4 Thanks, you guys.

Speaker 16 Thank you, Kai.

Speaker 3 Thank you, Kai.

Speaker 4 Coming up.

Speaker 11 I was instead all the way in the back and sort of looking out over everyone's head.

Speaker 4 Sometimes the best seat in the house is not up front. But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 4 Dow Industrial's down 125 today, 3 tenths percent, 44,747. The NASDAQ added 99 points, about 1%,

Speaker 4 19,791. The SP 500 found 22 points to the good just shy of 4 tenths percent, 6,083.
You can call this one doing a GE.

Speaker 4 If you know, you know. Honeywell said it plans to spin off its aerospace and automation divisions as separate companies.

Speaker 4 It also said it expects profits for this fiscal year to come in below Wall Street's estimates. Said Street was unimpressed.
Honeywell descended 5.2% today.

Speaker 4 Super Microcomputer added 7.5% on the day after announcing its new AI server systems are available. The chips therein come from

Speaker 4 NVIDIA accumulated 3.10% on the day today. Bonds fell, yield on the tenure treasurer note rose.

Speaker 4 Hello, Secretary Besant. That's the bond market paging you 4.43% on the tenure you're listening to marketplace.

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Speaker 4 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
The Walt Disney Company has high hopes for a new model of paid TV that looks a whole lot like the old model of paid TV, just less.

Speaker 4 CEO Bob Iger said this week that a new set of skinny bundle apps could help bring ESPN to bigger audiences as the subscriber count of the standalone ESPN streaming app is down and as pay TV subscribers are generally continuing to cut the cord.

Speaker 4 Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has the skinny.

Speaker 17 This idea has been around since ye olden days of cable TV.

Speaker 20 A smaller cable package that's cheaper.

Speaker 17 But in the past, Ross Benish, senior analyst at eMarketer, says high-value content like sports was pretty much never on the menu.

Speaker 20 You couldn't just like get ESPN and nothing else from Disney if you were a pay TV operator, but there's more flexibility on that now.

Speaker 17 Last month, Comcast and DirecTV announced new services that bring together most of the top sports and news channels and nothing else.

Speaker 17 At $70 a month, they're not exactly lightweight, but they're at least $10 cheaper than comprehensive live TV services from YouTube or Hulu.

Speaker 17 That puts them in a sweet spot, says Elizabeth Parks Parks at Market Researcher Parks Associates.

Speaker 21 We're tracking consumers spending about $71

Speaker 21 a month now, and that's actually a drop from a peak of $91 we saw a few quarters ago.

Speaker 17 The skinny bundle model could be repeated across different genres, says Vincent Peturo, a professor of media studies at Metropolitan State University, Denver.

Speaker 10 We're going to have a skinny bundle of sci-fi, a skinny bundle of documentaries.

Speaker 10 I think what these companies have to find is the point where people will pay for what they want, but also convenience too.

Speaker 17 While going a la carte might have seemed like an answer to the bloated buffet of cable TV packages, the smorgasbord of streamers also became overwhelming.

Speaker 10 It was too specific, too expensive, and it was too confusing.

Speaker 17 However, sports fans hoping to survive on a skinny bundle diet may be disappointed.

Speaker 17 Pro leagues like the NFL are increasingly selling game rights directly to streamers like Netflix or Amazon that aren't in any bundles. I'm Megan McCarty-Carino for Marketplace.

Speaker 4 You know those optical illusions where you might see a vase if you focus on an image one way, two faces if you look at it another.

Speaker 4 Point being, changing your perspective can sometimes change how you see the world.

Speaker 4 Naveen Kumar, the Washington Post's theater critic, learned that the hard way when a back injury forced him to watch a bunch of plays standing up.

Speaker 11 You know, I think I sat through one show where I was sort of writhing around in the seat being like, I really can't do this.

Speaker 11 Then I started to figure out, like I asked the press reps on the shows, like, hey, can I stand up to see this show? Because I could still think clearly and do my job as long as I could be standing up.

Speaker 11 Early on when I asked to do this, one set of producers said, oh, we're worried about your sight lines all the way in the back because it was a really big theater and they thought, you know, I won't be able to see the top half of the stage.

Speaker 11 So I said, hey, why don't I stand over to the side? You know, I've been in this theater and, you know, it's very big and there's a side wall and what if I hang out over there?

Speaker 11 So I'm over there and, you know, just a few minutes into the show, like an usher comes over and is like, are you in the performance? And I was like, Oh my gosh, no, what do I need to do?

Speaker 11 And you know, I realized that everyone could see me with my little notebook. So, the usher asked me, You know, can we move you to the back? And I was like, You know, that's absolutely fine.

Speaker 11 I was instead all the way in the back and sort of looking out over everyone's head, and it really changed my experience.

Speaker 11 If a show is supposed to be funny and and the audience is like crickets, you know, you can really see that when you're in the back.

Speaker 11 I think that's, you know, probably why directors like pace around back there and to get some perspective on the show.

Speaker 11 But you can also, you know, the opposite is true. Like if the show is really funny or very affecting, like you can sort of feel that when you're looking over the audience from behind.

Speaker 11 There's a musical, for example, on Broadway of the film Death Becomes Her. It's a big, campy, colorful show, really big last campy comedy.

Speaker 11 And that plays all the way to the back. You know, I could see people in the very last rows, like, you know, shaking in their seats with laughter.

Speaker 11 And that is sort of, it was pitched to the right frequency.

Speaker 11 And that was something that I was in a unique position to realize.

Speaker 11 Another thing I realized standing in the back was was that it's where people who are most enthusiastic about being in the theater generally stand.

Speaker 11 You know, whether that's the director and this is their baby or people who just want to get in the theater, you know, the show is sold out, they're the biggest fans, you know, are willing to stand up.

Speaker 11 And I felt that energy, you know, even just for myself.

Speaker 11 I was standing in the back and I was like, I am really excited to be here. Like, I love my job enough that like I will figure out how to get in this room and do it.

Speaker 11 You know, it really gave me renewed sort of love for what I do.

Speaker 4 Naveen Kumar, theater critic for the Washington Post. Tell us about your economy.
Were you just sitting, standing?

Speaker 12 Whatever's your vibe?

Speaker 4 Marketplace.org is where you can do that.

Speaker 4 This final note on the way out today, I want to set the stage for the January unemployment report that we're going to get tomorrow morning.

Speaker 4 The unemployment rate, of course, also the number of jobs added or lost last month.

Speaker 4 The numbers are going to be what the numbers are going to be, but what I want to make sure you're aware of is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is also going to publish what are expected to be pretty sizable revisions to the total number of jobs added or lost over the past year, as well as the size of the American labor force.

Speaker 4 Cutting to the chase here and trying to get ahead of the miss and disinformation that will surely spread wildly about this tomorrow, these will be totally normal, completely expected, and absolutely vital revisions that are made to ensure the accuracy of how we measure the American labor market.

Speaker 4 John Buckley, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Diana Parker, Amanda Peacher, and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace editing staff. Amir Babawe is the managing editor, and I'm Kyle Rizdahl.

Speaker 4 We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 4 This is 8 p.m.

Speaker 16 You've finally broken loose from work. Three friends, one tea time,

Speaker 16 and then the text: Honey, there's water in the basement.

Speaker 16 Not exactly how you pictured your Saturday. That's when you call us, Cincinnati Insurance.
We always answer the call because real protection means showing up, even when things are in the rough.

Speaker 16 Cincinnati Insurance, let us make your bad day better.

Speaker 16 Find an agent at cinfin.com.