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Speaker 3 Well, let's talk about this week, shall we?

Speaker 3 From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 3 In Los Angeles, I'm Connor Risdahl. It is Friday today.
This one is the 24th of January. Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 3 One week does not, of course, an entire presidency defined, but we learned some things past five days about where this economy is going.

Speaker 3 I think.

Speaker 3 David Gura is at Bloomberg. Anna Swanson is at the New York Times.
Hey, you two. Hey, Kai.
Anna Swanson, we go to you first, and I will say only this.

Speaker 3 We were promised tariffs, and yet here we are, end of week one. I'm kidding.

Speaker 3 No tariffs. I mean,

Speaker 3 they are clearly coming, right? Canada and Mexico on the 1st of February, and China, maybe, I don't know. But it does seem that there has been a delay, shall we say.
Mm-hmm.

Speaker 4 Yeah, it was somewhat surprising because the president had said on Truth Social that he would do tariffs on Canada and Mexico and China on day one. Now that's February 1st.

Speaker 4 You know, we'll see if that actually really happens

Speaker 4 because those are sort of a negotiating tactic against those countries.

Speaker 4 But I think that

Speaker 4 at his core, even though we didn't see tariffs on day one, Trump still really likes and believes in tariffs.

Speaker 4 And personally, I think it could mean just a bigger windup for some of the same tariff actions.

Speaker 4 This went a little more under the radar, but on day one, he signed an executive order on trade that requested reports on about two dozen different trade issues by April.

Speaker 4 And so those reports, I think, are going to give him a lot of ammo to pursue different trade actions in the future if he wants to. And they could also help shore up the legal

Speaker 4 justification for tariffs so they wouldn't be challenged and struck down in court.

Speaker 4 So we could ultimately see tariffs that are more kind of comprehensive and strategic just in a few months instead of day one.

Speaker 3 Let me read between the lines here.

Speaker 3 You think they're coming for real?

Speaker 4 I think something is coming for real. I mean, he's proposed so many different plans.
We don't know exactly what they are. Are they universal tariffs for revenue?

Speaker 4 Are they against Canada, Mexico, China, Europe? But I know from a lot of years of reporting that he really does believe in tariffs. And so I do expect to see some.

Speaker 3 Interesting to me, David Gurra, that he wants to renegotiate early the trade deal that he signed with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA.

Speaker 3 He's kind of going all in here, early.

Speaker 5 He's going all in. And, you know, it wasn't too long ago that he was really proud of that agreement that he negotiated with Canada and Mexico.

Speaker 5 But, of course, he's been making these threats since before he was inaugurated and left everyone hanging. I mean, inauguration was

Speaker 5 odd, chiefly because we were left wondering all day how many executive orders are there going to be, what are they going to be on, and kind of the week preceded

Speaker 5 from there. And then there was this big meeting in Switzerland, this meeting in Davos.
And

Speaker 5 this is a big deal in my world at Bloomberg. And so there's like a week of interviews with CEOs.

Speaker 5 And I'd characterize the kind of zeitgeister vibe there as a lot of kind of optimism and excitement about what he's doing.

Speaker 5 But then in every interview, a question of what are these tariffs going to be? How big are they going to be?

Speaker 5 But it did feel like a markedly different set of executives than the last time he was there in 2020 and in 2018 before that.

Speaker 3 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Yeah.

Speaker 3 I thought it was interesting, Anna, that Ursula von der Leyen on whatever it was the first day, Monday or Tuesday, gave a speech in which she basically said, number one, Europe, we're on our own.

Speaker 3 And number two,

Speaker 3 the sort of

Speaker 3 global trade for the common good order that we've had for the last 25, 30 years is no more.

Speaker 4 Right. Well, yeah, a few days after that, Trump was also pretty critical of Europe in his speech to Davos, right?

Speaker 4 Talking about tariffs on Europe. So apparently the feeling is mutual.

Speaker 4 But yeah, it's been interesting to see, you know, Europe also in recent weeks has kind of extended its efforts at signing new trade agreements with other countries.

Speaker 4 And it really is just a big shift from the Biden administration, where the United States and Europe were working more closely as allies to take on issues with China.

Speaker 4 With the Trump administration, you know, it's kind of America against the world again, and that includes a more confrontational approach to Europe.

Speaker 3 Speaking of confrontational approaches, David, he also said in that speech

Speaker 3 he's going to demand lower interest rates, which,

Speaker 3 number one, that's not the way it works. And number two, also his policies in and of themselves could prove to be quite inflationary.

Speaker 5 Yeah, he also demanded lower oil prices and kind of looks in compliment.

Speaker 5 But yeah, this is this, as you know, this is going to be a big test of Jay Powell, the Fed chair, who has thus far shown a lot of resolve and been really adamant that the Fed is insulated from political influence.

Speaker 5 But I think what we got this week was a taste of what's to come, and that is this president talking an awful lot about how he knows interest rates better than the current Fed chairman.

Speaker 5 He's going to opine on this a lot. There's been some speculation that he might work some way of kind of being somebody who has to be consulted on interest rates.
We'll see what happens there.

Speaker 5 But I think what we're seeing shape up here is just a test that's going to play out over the course of this term.

Speaker 5 How can Jay Powell, whose term isn't up until 2026, deal under the pressure of a president who, unlike his predecessors, really wants to have his opinion on this known?

Speaker 3 So, David, on the theory that the sound you hear is Jay Powell's head hitting his desk, we're going to play my favorite game. What is Jay Powell thinking in five words or less? You get to go first.

Speaker 3 Anna gets to think about it for a minute. Jay Powell, Fed meets next week.
What is Jay Powell thinking? Five words or less, David, Gara, go.

Speaker 5 What will the tariffs be?

Speaker 5 And I think that's just the big question that they're going to have to wrestle with as they come up with each and every interest rate decision.

Speaker 5 What's he actually going to do and what's the effect going to to be?

Speaker 5 Just to go back to what you said a minute ago, Kai, so many of the things he's proposed are, as any academician will tell you, inherently inflationary.

Speaker 5 I think it has to be something that's going to be discussed a lot when the Fed meets next week.

Speaker 3 Aaron Trevor Burrus, Ana, before we get to your answer to the question, it's worth pointing out here that Powell will almost certainly say we've got to wait to see what the tariffs do, right?

Speaker 3 Just in terms of what David was saying, Ana, that

Speaker 3 we just don't know, and he's not going to speculate, right? He's not going to answer the hypothetical.

Speaker 4 Yeah, yeah. Actually, he was asked about it in December, and he talked about, you know, how they were dusting off their data from tariffs in 2018 and seeing what they should do.

Speaker 4 But there is a debate about whether the Fed should

Speaker 4 consider them more of a one-time price increase and quote-unquote look through them or treat them as inflationary and then act against them.

Speaker 3 Aaron Powell, Jr.: For whatever it's worth, I did see it go by in one of my news feeds this past week, maybe it was 10 days or so ago.

Speaker 3 What if the Fed's first move of this year is not even first move, but what if the Fed at some point raises and doesn't lower? And then what happens? Anyway, Anna Swanson, over to you.

Speaker 3 You've had plenty of time to percolate on this one.

Speaker 3 What is Jay Powell thinking in five words or less? You're going to send us off into the weekend.

Speaker 4 Well,

Speaker 4 since David took the tariff one, I thought I'd

Speaker 4 just make a little joke and say, don't call me Bonehead, because

Speaker 4 he did use that term before, right? Trump spent the first presidency publicly attacking the Fed.

Speaker 4 I know that Powell says that

Speaker 4 he's not focused on that, but I think the question is: you know, Trump is certainly going to try to jawbone him this time, but is he going to do more than that, right?

Speaker 3 Yeah, you got to believe Powell reads the papers. All right, Anna Swanson at the New York Times,

Speaker 3 David Gura, not Jay Powell, David Gurra at Bloomberg. Maybe we'll get Powell on.
I don't know. Maybe never again after this.

Speaker 3 David Gurra at Bloomberg. See you guys.
Have a nice weekend. Thank you.
Thanks.

Speaker 3 Wall Street to end this week. Traders, we're a little cranky.
Details, numbers. You all know the drill.

Speaker 3 American consumers need them, though this economy does can be a fickle bunch. We have talked about that quite a bit.
Price is probably first among equals in why consumers shop the way they do.

Speaker 3 And new data from the Private Label Manufacturers Association shows that store-brand sales, names like Target's Everspring or Costco's Kirkland, the data backs that up.

Speaker 3 Brand sales hit an all-time high in 2024. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab has more.

Speaker 6 Shoppers traditionally turn to private labels when they're looking to save money on items that feel sort of ho-hum. Paper towels, glass cleaner, beans.

Speaker 6 But Matt Hammery, a grocery consultant at Alex Partners, says he's seen a shift.

Speaker 7 There's a big uptick in customers being willing and in fact interested to buy prepared foods, chilled foods of those sorts of, you know, fresher, just warm it up, ready to eat.

Speaker 6 Refrigerated foods was the fastest growing private label category last year, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association.

Speaker 6 And Hammery says that shows people trust retailers enough to buy their house brand of perishable perishable foods.

Speaker 6 Part of that trust is because of the sheer growth of national chains like Walmart and Kroger and how well they've gotten to know their shoppers.

Speaker 7 The retailer decides what the flavor profile would be, the quality, and effectively what they're doing there is they are taking a couple of steps further in building their customer relationship.

Speaker 6 It's part of the reason why stores like Trader Joe's and Aldi have cult followings. But not all generic products are a slam dunk.
Natalie Cutler leads retail and consumer products at BDO.

Speaker 8 Retailers have, in most cases, just one chance to get it right.

Speaker 6 One low-performing tub of dishwasher pods is enough to deter people from making the leap to laundry detergent or even trickier categories like shampoo.

Speaker 6 Jan Benedict Steenkamp, a professor of marketing at UNC Chapel Hill, says personal care is an area generics have yet to conquer.

Speaker 7 Private labels are still sold mostly based on logic, you know, on rationality. And in personal care, people are actually purchasing a dream.
They're purchasing an emotion.

Speaker 6 Something that feels aspirational or like a simple pleasure. For Hammery at Alex Partners, that's a crispy can of Diet Coke.

Speaker 7 You know, I don't have it all the time, but when I do, I love it and I won't take anything else for it.

Speaker 6 With certain purchases, brand loyalty is hard to break. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 If you need to know things as soon as you get up, I have a suggestion for your David Broncaccio and the gang at the Marketplace Morning Report.

Speaker 3 Get out of bed really early to get you all the business and economic news you need to start your day. Check it out.

Speaker 3 We are down to four. Count them four teams left standing in the National Football League playoffs.
Commanders and Eagles are the early game on Sunday. Chiefs-Bills in the late game.

Speaker 3 Four teams in, of course, means 28 teams out, and 28 teams worth game day outfits that fans wore all season long go back in the closet. Here with today's installment of our series, My Economy.

Speaker 8 My name is Kennedy Tweeton. I live in Mankato, Minnesota, and I am the owner of the Aries Archive.
I use thrifted and reworked materials to create game day pieces.

Speaker 8 I started the Aries Archive right after I had my son.

Speaker 8 I had really bad postpartum depression, and my now husband said, you used to love sewing.

Speaker 8 You should get back into that. And, you know, you'll be able to be around our son and work at the same time.
So, I picked that up.

Speaker 8 My sister-in-law is an influencer for the Vikings, and she said, I need custom pieces because I need content.

Speaker 8 If you could send me a box of stuff, and I'll promote it. And, you know, it just took off from there.

Speaker 8 My favorite materials to use are actually like blankets and towels and flags actually is one of my favorite things.

Speaker 3 All of

Speaker 8 the business is through social media. Most of it is through Instagram and

Speaker 8 the biggest challenge is being able to make enough material and

Speaker 8 have enough content to post.

Speaker 8 Off season, I typically slow down. I still try to make things, you know, like a couple things a week.
And now specifically, like, I'll be shifting more into hockey,

Speaker 8 which is new, so I'm really excited about that.

Speaker 8 I have learned so much about patience.

Speaker 8 Nothing good comes from being rushed.

Speaker 8 That is within, you know, the website development. That's within the pieces that I sew.

Speaker 8 I feel like I've learned so much about just grinding it out, even if it doesn't work right away. It will eventually.

Speaker 3 Kennedy Tweeden in Mankato, Minnesota. Aries Archive is her business.
Tell us about your economy, which no matter who you're rooting for, go cheeksmarketplace.org.

Speaker 3 Coming up. There's an insatiable appetite for people to look and feed yanks.
Yeah, we give you a little bit of everything on this program. But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 3 Now Industrial is off 140 points today, a third of 1%. Finished at 44,424.
The NASDAQ subtracted 99 points, about 1%,

Speaker 3 19,954. The SP 500 down 17 points, 3 tenths percent, 6,101.
For the week, the Dow picked up just shy of 2.2%.

Speaker 3 The NASDAQ added 1.2 thirds percent. The SP 500 gained about 1 3 quarters of 1 percent.

Speaker 3 Boeing descended 1.4 percent today after warning that its loss for the fourth quarter is likely to be nearly three times as big as analysts had been expecting.

Speaker 3 The plane maker said the red ink is down to fewer jetliner deliveries and also that strike last year.

Speaker 3 United Airlines climbed 1.9% after a couple of brokerage firms raised their price targets for its shares. How about railroads, you say?

Speaker 3 CSX slowed down 2.9% after the railroad reported its profits in the fourth quarter were down almost 7% year on year. The auto industry, we got it all, man.
Planes, trains, automobiles.

Speaker 3 Auto industry has plenty of Texas Instruments chips stock banked up. Thank you very much.
I'll say that again: Texas Instruments chips stocked up. Thank you.

Speaker 3 Anyway,

Speaker 3 Chipmaker forecasts profits for the further quarter won't match analyst estimates. TI subtracted 7.5%.

Speaker 3 Sometimes things are hard to say.

Speaker 5 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 3 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl.
On a sunny Tuesday morning this past November, I stepped onto a trailhead in Cumberland County, Tennessee.

Speaker 3 I'm going to be too warm, man. I have to take this sweater off.

Speaker 3 It's mostly rural out here, kind of halfway between Nashville and Knoxville. Not quite 65,000 people.
Morning, John, how are you? Fine, how are you? Good, thanks.

Speaker 3 Beautiful weather you brought with us. Nice to see you.
John Conrad is one of them. Been living here in Cumberland County for 13 years.
I retired here and just love it.

Speaker 3 John was born and raised in the north of England, as you might be able to tell. And then with stops in Buffalo, Boston, and Tampa, he landed here.

Speaker 3 The way we tell it is that Buffalo and Boston's too cold and Tampa's too hot. Halfway in between must be perfect.
And it's been a great decision on our part coming here. Very nice.

Speaker 3 Let's go for a walk. Okay.
You're in charge. I am following you.
All right. I'm here to meet people like John.

Speaker 3 He's 73, an engineer in his working life, but retirement has changed how he spends his time and his money. We're going to go for a walk on the Soldier's Beach Trail, which

Speaker 3 we built

Speaker 3 2015, 2017. Proved to be very popular.

Speaker 3 Tell me about this we build trails thing. How did you come to be in the trail building business? For very selfish reasons.

Speaker 3 During my lifetime, I've been an occasional hiker when on vacation and things like that.

Speaker 3 But when I moved to Fairfield Glade, which is a beautiful area with hills and valleys and creeks, I was extremely disappointed that there were no trails.

Speaker 3 There was no access to all this beautiful countryside. Cumberland County has one of the oldest labor forces in the country, according to ADP.
The county seat is a town called Crossville.

Speaker 3 But Fairfield Glade, where John lives, is a retirement community with a median age of almost 70. In a rather arrogant way, and much to the horror of my wife, I wrote to the general manager and said,

Speaker 3 I'd like to volunteer to organize volunteers to build some hiking trails here. Is that okay?

Speaker 3 Fortunately, they said, go for it.

Speaker 3 We formed a trails committee, and it turns out I have a knack for finding talented people and exploiting them for my benefit.

Speaker 3 Well, everybody's benefit, John. Come on.
Hell, yeah.

Speaker 3 You're going to be hearing a lot over the next couple of years about the wave of retirements coming to this economy.

Speaker 3 It's a massive demographic shift that we've seen coming for decades, and it's going to have implications for where people live, where they work, and where they spend their money.

Speaker 3 In Fairfield Glade, a lot of the retirees are healthy. They're also relatively active, like John.
The Trails Committee in Fairfield Glade love doing rock work.

Speaker 3 Rock work? Rock work. They love picking up huge are you kidding slap stone slabs and either making staircases with them or putting retaining walls and the like if you walk

Speaker 3 exactly that's

Speaker 3 i much prefer sitting at a desk sending emails personally but uh that's right oh man boy it is lovely out here this is great it was crisp the day we were there fallen leaves underfoot on the meandering trail drifting down from the maple and oak trees up above all right no pressure here john but here's a stump that they missed okay i'll tell them all right

Speaker 3 it was noted on national radio that you missed a stump

Speaker 3 are you a trails guy from way back like from when you were a kid no no no i i mean as i say i hiked occasionally maybe three or four times a year and that was about it in retirement it's become something of an obsession now it's uh retirement's a wonderful invention i just love it

Speaker 3 Fills your time up, I guess. It does.
I keep busy, have a reason for getting up in the morning.

Speaker 3 My mother says to me all the time, she says, Kai, there's so much time when you're retired. Yeah, I disagree.
You need a project.

Speaker 3 John's got multiple projects going on. Trail building, of course.
He also puts on an annual hiking marathon to promote use of the trails.

Speaker 3 And he created a tour group that visits local businesses and organizations. It's got about 500 people in it.

Speaker 3 And we do police departments, fire departments, colleges, anything where somebody is prepared to talk to 20 mainly mainly retirees.

Speaker 3 We have, I think it's 120 destinations we've now visited. Boy, that's impressive.
And some of them multiple times. We have a yak ranch in Crossroads.
I'm sorry, a yak ranch? A yak ranch.

Speaker 3 I believe we've been there 43 times now. No.

Speaker 3 There's an insatiable appetite for people to look and feed yaks, cute things, and Ali has a good story to tell. Oh, that's great.
I've just realized. What's that? Did we miss the trail? Yeah,

Speaker 3 My brain was having trouble figuring out what that bridge was. I thought we shouldn't have been going over a bridge.

Speaker 3 What'd you do in Tennessee, Kai? Well, I got lost with the trail. That's right.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 You built the damn trail and still got lost. We did find our way to the lake view eventually.

Speaker 3 This is,

Speaker 3 I wish I'd just bought a book. I'd send you guys back to the car and just stay here for a couple of hours.
You know, honestly. It's a nice, peaceful place, isn't it? This is a beautiful lake.

Speaker 3 God, it's beautiful. Here's the catch, though, and it's the reason we've come.
Not everybody in Cumberland County gets to have a peaceful, active retirement like John Conrad.

Speaker 3 As we start to head back, tell me about the

Speaker 3 Fairfield Glade and Crossville Divide, because they're very different places. They are indeed.

Speaker 3 The John Conrad perspective is that Crossville has been here many years with local Tennesseans and quite content.

Speaker 3 And somebody came up with a bright idea of building Fairfield Glade, building whatever it is, 15,000 lots and people started moving here and building homes. And

Speaker 3 they had more

Speaker 3 disposable income, I guess you'd put it, than the majority of people in Crossville.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 this has led to a

Speaker 3 kind of divide between the two communities where the people in Fairfield Glade are mainly retirees with a little more money. The people in Crossville feel that these outsiders

Speaker 3 coming in with their different opinions and views and attitudes.

Speaker 3 And I personally have not experienced in 13 years anything but

Speaker 3 a welcoming attitude, but you constantly hear stories about, oh, this happened to so-and-so, or that happened.

Speaker 3 Well, that's always the way, right? That's always the way, yeah. So

Speaker 3 I am very pleased and proud of the fact that the trails help to unite.

Speaker 3 There's no metrics for measuring it, but I just feel that it's doing good.

Speaker 3 We came to Cumberland County for more than just a morning walk in the woods, of course. We're starting a new series next week.

Speaker 3 It's called The Age of Work, because as the American workforce gets older, the way it is here in central Tennessee, Some of the dynamics happening in Crossville and Fairfield Glade are going to play out all over the country.

Speaker 3 Well, John, this this has been a pleasure. All right.
You're very welcome. I hope you know a little more about

Speaker 3 the county now. I do indeed.

Speaker 3 It's inspiring, actually, a little bit. Good.
Yes, you don't have to just sit by your fire and do knitting when you retire. There are other possibilities.
I'm going to tell my mom. There are.

Speaker 3 Yes.

Speaker 3 The Age of Work, episode one, coming on Monday.

Speaker 3 This final note on the way out today, which I believe comes properly filed under the heading Schadenfreude.

Speaker 3 The Wall Street Journal reports today that the Wall Street banks that loaned Elon Musk part of the money that he needed to buy Twitter are getting ready to unload some of that debt at, and here is the relevant bit, 90 to 95 cents on the dollar.

Speaker 3 That is to say, they want out so badly they are taking a loss.

Speaker 3 The journal also reports on a Musk email to staff that the paper has seen that says, and here I quote: Our user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we are barely breaking even.

Speaker 3 Our theme music was composed by B.J. Lederman, Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargali.
Donna Tam is the executive editor, Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager.

Speaker 3 And I'm Kai Rizal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody.
We will see you back here on Monday, all right?

Speaker 3 This is APM.

Speaker 3 Now's the time to start your next adventure behind the wheel of an exciting new Toyota hybrid.

Speaker 3 With the largest lineup of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electrified vehicles to choose from, Toyota has the one for you.

Speaker 3 Every new Toyota hybrid comes with Toyota Care, two-year complementary scheduled maintenance, an exclusive hybrid battery warranty, and Toyota's legendary quality and reliability.

Speaker 3 Visit your local Toyota dealer today, Toyota. Let's go places.
See your local Toyota dealer for hybrid battery warranty details.