Counting the ways tariffs disrupt our economy

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Speaker 6 How are tariffs affecting this economy?

Speaker 8 Let us count count the ways.

Speaker 9 From American public media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 10 In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdahl.

Speaker 9 It is Tuesday, today, the 15th day of April.

Speaker 12 Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 9 Yeah, so I'm not actually going to count the ways that President Trump's trade policy is affecting this economy because the show

Speaker 11 But ways number one, two, and three for us today are in this order, supply chains, steel, and oil.

Speaker 18 Supply chains, of course, are about availability of materials at reasonable costs, both of which tariffs affect and not in a good way.

Speaker 6 Businesses do have some recent experience with supply chain disruptions, so Marketplace Adjustin Home made some calls about lessons learned from the pandemic that might apply today.

Speaker 20 Up until this week, Ken Gidden, the owner of Rothman's, a men's clothing store in New York, would order 20 suits a week from one of his suppliers in China.

Speaker 21 But on Monday, we decided to buy 200 of them.

Speaker 20 Gidden says one reason was to get them in before tariffs on Chinese imports take effect. Another was to buy himself some time to find other vendors in different countries.

Speaker 20 Gidden says all the supply chain congestion that happened during the pandemic taught him how important it is to have multiple suppliers.

Speaker 21 The economic world always evolves. So if one road is blocked, another one will open up.

Speaker 20 That said, the pandemic also taught retailers that having too much inventory can be a drag, especially if the economy and consumer demand slows down.

Speaker 20 Jason Miller is a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.

Speaker 22 If we front load today and demand drops, let's say in the next two or three months, then we're stuck with all this inventory that we then have to discount.

Speaker 20 Loading up on inventory also requires businesses to shell out a lot of cash up front, says Nicole D. Horatius, a professor at Columbia Business School.

Speaker 23 Firms right now are trying to make the decision is do I want to tie up that capital by having excess inventory in my system, or am I willing to endure shortages?

Speaker 20 And right now, many businesses don't even want to make that decision.

Speaker 25 You know, let's not change anything. Let's just hold tight to see what happens with the dust settling.

Speaker 20 That's Ben Coates, the CEO of Revel Bikes in Colorado. He says there are just too many unknowns.

Speaker 25 Do the tariffs stand? How do you manage them? Do we stay the course and not worry about it? Do we move supply from Taiwan to Vietnam because the tariffs are lower?

Speaker 20 Coach says any lessons he learned during the pandemic don't apply to those kind of questions. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

Speaker 19 Wall Street today lower across the board, but not by much.

Speaker 14 We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 11 Steel is way number two for us today. That tariffs are affecting this economy.

Speaker 9 And the obvious question, if you remember that back in Trump one, steel and aluminum tariffs were the tariffs, the question is, how is this time difference?

Speaker 10 We called our go-to, Lisa Goldenberg, the president of Delaware Steel Company, to get the answer.

Speaker 27 The part that's new is

Speaker 27 the amount of energy it takes to sustain this amount of chaos is more than everyday business.

Speaker 27 Navigating through one day, it's literal, the next day it's conceptual, the next day it's a notion, the next day it's policy. That just requires an enormous amount of focus and energy.

Speaker 27 My job is to buy low and sell high.

Speaker 27 And what we learned from the last tariff experience is that what goes up must come down. So it's kind of a last man standing.
The first sales out the door, you can make the most money.

Speaker 27 Whatever you're left with after you replace the steel at a higher cost and then have to sell it, you lose money. So the trick is to make enough that you don't have to give it all back in losses.

Speaker 14 You've been doing this.

Speaker 3 uh a long time and we've been talking for

Speaker 11 no no uh no pejard of intent there but but look you are you are here's a better way to say that. You are deeply experienced in this.

Speaker 27 Yeah, almost 40 years.

Speaker 18 You have a wide network of contacts here and abroad. And I want to ask you two questions.

Speaker 2 First of all,

Speaker 18 what are the conversations you're having like with your professional colleagues here in the United States about what the chaos of President Trump's trade policy is doing?

Speaker 27 Well, I think that steel is a unique environment in that it's generally a very

Speaker 27 pro-conservative economic environment. And in particular, more than not pro-Trump.

Speaker 27 The level of chaos is not what people expected.

Speaker 27 And most people are saying things like, well, overall, we think that a lot of good is going to get done.

Speaker 27 It's just the way it's going to get done is not going to be the way I would do it, but it's all going to work out. So I think there's a lot of kind of backpedaling on blanket support.

Speaker 27 But long view, people think that this is going to go in the right right direction, but the here and now is far too turbulent for anyone to stomach.

Speaker 9 What about then the contacts you've made in your decades

Speaker 2 overseas and the American reputation?

Speaker 27 Overseas is a whole other thing. Canadians think that we've lost our mind and they're angry.

Speaker 27 And generally speaking, when you're having trade, quote, issues, unquote, you negotiate, you have summits, you discuss, and then you walk away saying, geez, we've got an issue, we better work on that.

Speaker 27 But because the administration came in and said, there's been issues, so we're going to deal with it, and this is how we're going to deal with it, without actually coming to the table,

Speaker 27 it's like being served divorce papers when you didn't know there was a problem. So people are very, very betrayed.

Speaker 12 I was going to ask you whether you worry about the future of the American economy.

Speaker 18 But based on what you've said, I'm just going to ask you, how worried are you about the future of the American economy?

Speaker 27 I think that the next four or five months are going to tell a lot.

Speaker 27 If we can sort of get through the next four or five months bouncing around, some really crappy days, the market falling apart, some rallies, some nonsense, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, we can get through it.

Speaker 13 But what does get through it look like, though, Lisa?

Speaker 3 What does get through it?

Speaker 28 It's a mess.

Speaker 27 It looks like a mess. This is the level of volatility and mind-changing and lack of balanced forethought.

Speaker 27 And in this environment with this president, there's a lot of emphasis on the stock market and growth, which really only pertains to the Uber wealthy.

Speaker 27 For the rest of the group, the workers, the people that the president swore to stand by,

Speaker 27 at the end of the day, there is no data that supports that tariffs create jobs, that tariffs improve the lives of the worker.

Speaker 27 It just doesn't track.

Speaker 18 Lisa Goldenberg, president of the Delaware Steel Company of Pennsylvania. Lisa, thanks so much.
It's really good to talk to you.

Speaker 8 And I appreciate, as I always do when I talk to you, your absolute frankness.

Speaker 27 Thank you, Kai.

Speaker 9 Oil would like to get in on the President Trump's tariffs or messing up global trade conversation.

Speaker 18 It is way number three for us today.

Speaker 13 The International Energy Agency has revised down its expectations for global oil demand growth, saying, and this is a quote, escalating trade tensions have negatively impacted the economic outlook, which makes sense.

Speaker 8 Trade wars means there's less cargo moving around the world, which means less demand for fuel to move said cargo.

Speaker 30 Not great for oil producers who've seen prices soften a lot lately in what was already an oversupplied market.

Speaker 31 And lest you forget, the United States is at this moment the biggest oil producer in the world and a net crude exporter.

Speaker 8 Marketplace Elizabeth Troval has that one.

Speaker 24 Even with all the uncertainty right now, independent oil analyst Tom Kloza is sure about one thing. We won't be seeing $100 barrels of oil anytime soon.

Speaker 35 The fear of a trade war is hamstringing oil demand.

Speaker 24 The price of WTI or West Texas Intermediate is hovering around $60 per barrel, which is not low enough to kill the U.S. oil patch, but it's not exactly giving drill baby drill vibes.

Speaker 24 Rice data energy analyst Matthew Bernstein.

Speaker 36 $60 per barrel puts growth at risk

Speaker 36 for U.S. oil producers.
If WTI prices dip lower, $50 WTI frankly puts their business model at risk.

Speaker 24 Which is plausible if we see a full slate of tariffs returned.

Speaker 36 That would have really consequential effects for U.S. oil output.

Speaker 24 But wait a minute. Don't lower oil prices help tamp inflation? Yes, though fuel prices are a smaller percentage of consumers' budgets than they once were.
Garrett Golding is with the Dallas Fed.

Speaker 37 And this is primarily the result of just more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Speaker 24 It's also important to consider why oil prices have dipped. Tom Klose again.

Speaker 35 We're seeing low oil prices, but we're seeing low oil prices because we're seeing an economy that's clearly stumbling.

Speaker 24 So it's looking like a good year for consumers at the pump. Just don't check your 401k.

Speaker 24 I'm Elizabeth Troval from Marketplace.

Speaker 14 Coming up.

Speaker 39 I don't like going up there because I hate looking at all that debris. That gets just like depressing.

Speaker 9 The long road to recovery for businesses in Altadena.

Speaker 15 First, though, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 10 Dow Industrials off 155 today, 4 tenths percent, 4,368.

Speaker 9 The NASDAQ subtracted 8 points less than a tenth percent sixteen thousand eight twenty three the s p 500 down nine two tenths percent fifty three and ninety six

Speaker 31 the trade war is hitting boeing beijing has ordered a halt to deliveries of its planes to chinese carriers and that those carriers stop buying parts and equipment from the planem maker which i think we can all agree is now safe to call beleaguered Boeing descended 2.4 tenths percent today.

Speaker 29 Oil today, by the way, just going back to Elizabeth's punt, $61.53 West Texas.

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Speaker 10 This is Marketplace.

Speaker 18 I'm Kai Rosdahl.

Speaker 12 I was out for a walk with my dog the other day in the hills up north of downtown Los Angeles.

Speaker 10 And once we got up to the top of where we were going, I could see a whole stretch off to the east that was discolored.

Speaker 16 It was a couple of miles wide.

Speaker 3 Easy.

Speaker 2 And it took me a minute, but then I realized it was the burn scar from the Eaton fire.

Speaker 31 If you drive around up there, you can see the rebuilding happening.

Speaker 8 Dump trucks on almost every street, workers in yellow vests and hard hats fixing light poles and power lines.

Speaker 9 People from the EPA and and the Army Corps of Engineers, clipboards in hand, and business owners trying to figure out what to do next.

Speaker 42 You know, for me personally, it's completely taken the wind out of my sails.

Speaker 43 This is like the nightmare that you never think you're going to have.

Speaker 38 It's hard to tell what construction costs are going to be going forward, what the cost of labor is going to be, what the cost of materials are going to be.

Speaker 39 In essence, I can't move as fast as I want to move.

Speaker 9 The unknowns of this whole thing, the expenses, how long it's going to take, whether people are even going to come back, those are all real for the Altadena economy.

Speaker 7 And we're starting a series today about Altadena businesses because Altadena's recovery depends on those businesses.

Speaker 5 A series, we should tell you, that's going to have to go for a while because rebuilding after a natural disaster like this takes a long, long

Speaker 15 time.

Speaker 8 You can see that right in the heart of Altadena's business district.

Speaker 32 So I'll tell you what, it's been like a month since I've been up here.

Speaker 10 You forget.

Speaker 32 You forget. It's unbelievable.

Speaker 9 If you look at a map of the burn zone, you'll see that almost all of Altadena falls within it.

Speaker 18 18 people died in that fire. More than 9,400 structures were destroyed, homes, unattached garages, and commercial properties.

Speaker 9 More than 1,000 others were damaged.

Speaker 18 Joey Galloway owns one of those properties.

Speaker 12 I'm Kai. Nice to see you.
How are you? Nice to see you.

Speaker 26 Nice to see you.

Speaker 26 Here's Radio 101. You just got all the microphone up to your mouth.
That's it.

Speaker 39 I got to tell you, I signed up for a beginning voice action.

Speaker 16 You got the pipe. You got the voice, man.

Speaker 3 I know. You got the pipe.

Speaker 9 Joey owns the commercial block that we're standing on.

Speaker 18 He calls it Mariposa Junction.

Speaker 9 Two brick buildings separated by an alleyway, 13 business tenants, retail shops, offices, restaurants, a little bit of everything.

Speaker 37 Give me a little history.

Speaker 44 I mean, you're born and raised in here.

Speaker 32 How'd you come to acquire these buildings?

Speaker 39 My father purchased. My father's a real estate investor.
My whole family's a real estate investor. My grandparents, uncles, they all invested in real estate in the area.

Speaker 39 My father bought this building 42 years ago um an african-american family owned it he knew the owner

Speaker 39 so um my dad bought it it was just kind of one of those things my dad just let me go talk to this guy you were a kid you were like 12ish right

Speaker 28 yeah yeah

Speaker 18 in the 1960s and 70s altadena became known as an la suburb where black families were able to buy homes and businesses Before the fire, about 43,000 people lived here. Median income, around $129,000.

Speaker 9 And something you hear a lot when you're here is that a lot of those families have lived and owned businesses in Alphadena for generations.

Speaker 13 Families like Joey's.

Speaker 9 One of these buildings is intact, right?

Speaker 26 Not able to be occupied right now for a whole lot of reasons, but all the businesses in it are mostly intact.

Speaker 6 25 feet to the what is that?

Speaker 8 West,

Speaker 45 it's a shell.

Speaker 8 Now, what are you going to do?

Speaker 28 Rebuild.

Speaker 39 Rebuild.

Speaker 18 There's a melted bike frame from the bike store, blackened buckets and shelves from the hardware store, and just a ton of other debris that is completely unrecognizable.

Speaker 18 All that's standing is a buckled brick wall.

Speaker 39 I've never had to dealt with anything that was a total loss, so it's kind of a

Speaker 39 learning curve for me.

Speaker 39 Because of the extent of the damage and the size of the building, I retained a public adjuster. Like, I just, don't have the time or effort to just.
To help you out with insurance.

Speaker 39 Yeah, yeah, I can't. I just have too much on my plate.

Speaker 18 Public adjusters, by the way, they work for the person making the claim, not the insurance company.

Speaker 44 How long are you going to give it?

Speaker 32 We're talking three years?

Speaker 37 Easy, right?

Speaker 32 And

Speaker 32 you're going to keep plugging away?

Speaker 39 I asked my, before I got to that question,

Speaker 39 I was talking to my public adjuster and I said, hey, I don't like going up there because I hate looking at all that debris. That gets just depressing.
I said, I want to get it cleared out now.

Speaker 39 He's like, you can't touch it. Going through insurance.

Speaker 39 Touch anything.

Speaker 39 In essence,

Speaker 39 I can't move as fast as I want to move.

Speaker 26 Granted, we've known each other for like 20 minutes, but you're striking me as a guy who doesn't like to sit still.

Speaker 45 So the inactivity that comes with this place must be killing you.

Speaker 3 Oh, without a doubt.

Speaker 26 Where have you found a little moment of Zen?

Speaker 3 The building's getting busy.

Speaker 39 Yeah, you know what my moment of Zen is? I go to the beach every weekend. There you go.
I just got back from the beach last night. Literally, that's my moment of Zen.

Speaker 39 But I got to tell tell you another thing, I was up here probably almost every day of the week. That hardware store, True Value,

Speaker 39 it's the anchor store.

Speaker 39 And it was like the hardware store in the neighborhood. But I was up here every day for two reasons.
One, I have a storage facility in the back, but two, I had an account with them.

Speaker 39 So I bought most of my parts from my apartment buildings from them.

Speaker 10 Besides the properties here, Joey owns a couple apartment buildings down at Pasadena.

Speaker 39 So I was up here, let's say five days a week, sometimes six.

Speaker 39 Now it's maybe I'm up here every two weeks, if that.

Speaker 7 Insurance is going to cover rebuilding expenses in full, plus 30 months of lost rent.

Speaker 18 But it's not only this building that Joey needs to worry about.

Speaker 7 Right next door, in the one that's still standing, not a single of the six businesses leasing space there have reopened yet.

Speaker 39 They could technically open if they wanted to, but they kind of had the same mindset I did with all this debris around here.

Speaker 39 For starters, I'd have to go in and do all the smoke and so forth, work and so forth. If I had my insurance company do that

Speaker 39 and they opened up, once the brewer was removed, I'd probably have to go back and do it again.

Speaker 3 Yeah, it just doesn't make sense.

Speaker 45 Have they told you that they intend to open back up in this location?

Speaker 39 Every one of these businesses

Speaker 39 has said they're coming back with the exception of Sudecca.

Speaker 18 Sudeca is a woman's clothing shop on the corner. The owner's still trying to figure out if she can reopen.

Speaker 14 But if she doesn't come back, Joey's gonna need to find somebody who will.

Speaker 32 You say you're gonna rebuild.

Speaker 44 You didn't really hesitate.

Speaker 26 My question is: how are you gonna do it?

Speaker 26 You gotta, here's why I'm asking: you gotta figure out the tenant situation, right?

Speaker 32 You gotta get people to want to come back to do business, but you gotta get people, people, to live here and work here and shop here.

Speaker 39 That's like the least of my concern.

Speaker 30 For reals?

Speaker 3 For reals.

Speaker 39 For reals.

Speaker 28 If

Speaker 39 If people who lost their homes don't come back, somebody's going to come back. Somebody's going to fill that void.

Speaker 39 You're not going to see vacant lots in Altadina.

Speaker 39 It's on the flip side, you know,

Speaker 39 when bad things happen, sometimes there's some opportunities there. You know, I hate to say it under these circumstances, but I see opportunity.

Speaker 39 You're a businessman. I see opportunity.
I don't think all my tenants are going to come back,

Speaker 39 and I'm not worried about it.

Speaker 34 Not worried, but he does figure it's going to take him three years to rebuild.

Speaker 18 Three years before his biggest tenant in the building that burned can move back in.

Speaker 9 Tell me who you are and what you do for a living.

Speaker 42 My name is Jimmy Orlandini. My family owned Alzheimer's hardware.

Speaker 44 Tell me what we're looking at.

Speaker 42 My baby, this is my hardware store.

Speaker 42 You know, I'm technically third generation hardware.

Speaker 42 My grandfather bought a store in East LA in the 60s that my dad still has and he runs.

Speaker 42 We bought this store in 2010.

Speaker 42 The store's been here forever. It's been a part of the community forever.
And when we came in, we just redid it, and the community just fell in love with it. And it was an amazing store.

Speaker 18 Like Joey Galloway, Jimmy Orlandini is part of a multi-generational family business.

Speaker 45 He grew up in Alphadena and still lives here.

Speaker 32 When did you find out that this building had burned?

Speaker 42 It was probably about 8 o'clock in the morning on

Speaker 42 Wednesday morning.

Speaker 18 Jimmy had evacuated the night before with his wife and his three kids.

Speaker 9 First thing the next morning, he drove back in to check on the store.

Speaker 42 I think it was about 8, 8.30. My dad actually,

Speaker 42 before he even checked on his house, he drove up here to see the store and he came down. He just looked at me and said, the store's gone.

Speaker 42 And then about two minutes later, I got text from Joey with a picture of the store on fire.

Speaker 9 Since the fire, Jimmy's been coming up here at least once a week.

Speaker 32 What do you do up here though, Jimmy?

Speaker 44 There's nothing you can do here, man.

Speaker 42 You know, we still have, we have garages in the back.

Speaker 42 We have four of them. I have inventory in there that I've been, you know, this store we treated like kind of like our hub.

Speaker 42 All our big orders came here and then we dispersed it to the other stores as we needed. It's just made it easier.

Speaker 10 So this fire actually has disrupted

Speaker 32 not completely, but your business models.

Speaker 42 Yes. Completely.
Yeah.

Speaker 42 Because those stores are out of product that

Speaker 42 they only make sense for us to order full truckloads. Oh, yeah.
And I have no way of doing that. One, the other stores don't have the area to take the product,

Speaker 42 and two, I have nowhere to store it.

Speaker 9 Some of his customers are reaching out to Jimmy directly.

Speaker 18 He's been meeting up with them in front of the store or at their homes to do small order drop-offs.

Speaker 26 Now, what are you going to do?

Speaker 44 I'll rebuild it.

Speaker 44 No doubt. No doubt.

Speaker 42 Yeah, it's coming back.

Speaker 42 We're looking for a temporary place.

Speaker 42 You know, there's not a lot of commercial buildings left that will

Speaker 42 take us in. You know, hardware is

Speaker 42 a little rough on buildings.

Speaker 44 Yeah.

Speaker 42 Right now we're mainly focused here in Altadena, but there's nothing.

Speaker 32 Yeah,

Speaker 44 inventory's got to be pretty low, right? Demand is super high.

Speaker 42 There are a few businesses in Altadena that survived,

Speaker 39 but

Speaker 42 their customer clientele is gone. And it's going to be very difficult for them to come back

Speaker 45 right now. This is a terrible thing to say, but that's an opportunity for you.

Speaker 31 For me.

Speaker 42 I'm hoping that it could be something where it kind of benefits both of us because we come in and rent the space while they

Speaker 11 recover.

Speaker 42 Right.

Speaker 42 It's just been difficult. You know,

Speaker 42 I had one realtor that

Speaker 42 works with hardware stores, and he's like,

Speaker 42 I tried. Good luck.
I don't think it's going to happen for you.

Speaker 42 You know, everyone, anything that's left, they're going to charge you an arm and a leg, and they're not going to want a temporary tenant.

Speaker 42 If you are going to sign a temporary lease, they're going to want a premium. You know, especially for a hardware store.

Speaker 44 Can you pay a premium right now? No.

Speaker 37 No, not at all.

Speaker 18 Most of the quotes he has are more than double the rent he was paying Joey before the fire.

Speaker 9 It's not a stretch to say that more than in most places, the local economy here depends on the community here.

Speaker 11 Altadena is kind of like a cul-de-sac.

Speaker 31 It fits snugly into the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains.

Speaker 9 It's surrounded on three sides by wilderness, so you can only get here by driving up the hill from Pasadena.

Speaker 15 You don't just pass through.

Speaker 16 So with so many people who used to live here scattered everywhere, all the businesses in town aren't going to have for a good long while anyway, the community that they need to survive.

Speaker 9 Coming up on the program tomorrow.

Speaker 38 We did our best to try and place as many of the employees as possible with other clubs and other locations.

Speaker 18 A story from one of the biggest employers in town.

Speaker 5 This final note on the way out today: we did a story the other day, maybe last week, I think, about Delta Airlines pulling its earnings guidance for the year because of, you know, tariffs, uncertainty.

Speaker 18 Unusual to pull guidance, but not unheard of.

Speaker 7 United, though, has decided to go Delta one better. The company said in an investor update today, it's not pulling its guidance.

Speaker 11 It said, hey, things could go one of two ways. If things stay stable, we'll make as much as $13.50 a share.

Speaker 12 If things get worse, United said, it'll be half that, which I think makes United and airlines our number four away.

Speaker 18 But President Trump Saris are messing up the global economy, huh?

Speaker 6 Our digital and on-demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Mandy, Dylan, Meethanen, Janet Wynn, Olga, Oxman, Ellen Rolfis, Edward Silva, Virginia K.

Speaker 9 Smith, and Tony Wagner.

Speaker 7 Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On-Demand. And I'm Kai Rizdahl.
We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

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