A cold snap in corporate bonds

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Speaker 2 I don't don't want to be a downer here,

Speaker 2 but we are all going to wake up tomorrow in a whole different economy. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 2 In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdall. It is Tuesday.
This one is the 8th of April. Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 2 It is possible.

Speaker 2 It's desperately unlikely, but it is possible that between the time this program gets put to bed and the time you hear it, that President Trump will have changed his mind, that he'll have reconsidered the damage he's doing to global trade and the American economy.

Speaker 2 But we here cannot predict the news. We can only tell you what the news is.

Speaker 2 And the news is that at midnight tonight, the president's tariffs take effect and the whole global trade ballgame is going to change. Some of those changes actually have already started happening.

Speaker 2 Sabri Benishor told us yesterday about the yield on two-year Treasury notes, how it's been falling, on expectations of a weaker economy over the next couple of years.

Speaker 2 Those exact same concerns are playing out in the corporate bond market too. Over the past couple of days, the issuance of corporate debt has slowed to a crawl.

Speaker 2 Things are so slow that some traders are saying the corporate bond market has effectively shut down. Marketplace Adjustin Ho gets us going with what that is telling us.

Speaker 5 The problem with the corporate bond market is uncertainty.

Speaker 6 If you don't know what XYZ companies' profits are going to be six months from now, you're probably going to charge more in order to lend to them.

Speaker 5 That's Guy Laba, chief fixed income strategist at Janny Montgomery Scott. He says companies feel it when their borrowing costs increase, even a little.
It's just like a mortgage.

Speaker 6 If you have to pay an extra quarter of a percent on a 30-year bond issuance as a company, today well that's a lot of extra expense over the next 30 years. Doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot.

Speaker 5 As a result, companies are holding off borrowing money by issuing new bonds. Winnie Caesar, head of strategy at Credit Sites, says companies have been tapping other lending sources.

Speaker 7 They have access to bank lines of credit, which is basically like a massive credit card. There's also the commercial paper market, which is another kind of short-term source of funding.

Speaker 5 Cesar says companies will start inching back into the corporate bond market, but as long as the economy remains this uncertain, she says companies won't be issuing very many bonds.

Speaker 7 The outlook for the broader economy and tariffs and taxes and geopolitical, those are going to be the things that probably give management teams a little bit of pause.

Speaker 5 Meanwhile, any company that does issue new debt, say to refinance old debt, is going to have to contend with those elevated interest rates.

Speaker 5 Evan Raleigh, a finance professor at the University of Connecticut, says that's going to limit what companies want to do with the money they borrow by selling bonds.

Speaker 6 They still might make make the investment they think is the home run, but they might not make the investment that they're less sure about.

Speaker 5 Raleigh says that means companies might focus on short-term investments that don't require much borrowed money, say sprucing up a retail storefront, but longer-term investments that require a lot of borrowed money, probably not going to happen.

Speaker 6 But when you look at something oil and gas or mineral extraction or

Speaker 6 maybe even pharma or things that have returns that are way out in the future, those are the things that are the first to go when interest rates go up.

Speaker 5 And so, a slowdown in the corporate bond market is a drag on economic growth. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 Slowdown was the word of the day on Wall Street today, as in started strong, then slowed way down.

Speaker 2 We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 2 There's a whole bunch of ways to try to track what's going on in this economy right now. Justin did corporate bonds just now.
We'll do commodities later.

Speaker 2 There are banks, too, about which the Dallas Fed has a data point or two. A new survey shows a sharp slowdown in both loan growth and loan demand in the Lone Star state.

Speaker 2 Tariff-induced uncertainty was, of course, cited as one of the major factors. Marketplace Elizabeth Troval checked in with some lenders in her home state today and filed this report.

Speaker 8 Starting at the border in Laredo, IBC Bank's Jerry Schwabel says he's seen a dip in lending. His customers are importers, exporters.

Speaker 9 Everyone's taking a pause and wait and see as to what

Speaker 9 the implementation of the tariffs will mean to their particular companies or their particular sector.

Speaker 8 In Paris, Texas, in the northeastern corner of the state, Greg Wilson is president of Lamar National Bank, which does commercial ag and consumer lending.

Speaker 8 He worries if tariffs stick around, construction budgets could get out of control.

Speaker 10 That is a scary concern because at that point, a bank's going to have to either continue to lend beyond what was initially contemplated in the scope or kill the project.

Speaker 10 And neither one of those are good outcomes for banks or our customers.

Speaker 8 It's the inflationary impacts of tariffs on consumers that has in-touch credit union CEO Kent Lugrand worried.

Speaker 8 He does a lot of lending in the Dallas area, area, where people have already been squeezed by rent and insurance hikes.

Speaker 9 We are seeing an uptick in non-performing loans, mostly on the consumer side. We are concerned that

Speaker 9 if the present course continues, that could worsen.

Speaker 8 In the Houston area, TDECU CFO Jason Schneider is more optimistic. He thinks some of the slowdown is seasonal and that the dust from tariffs will settle in the second half of the year.

Speaker 12 We also know for sure on a little bit more around what the Fed's thinking.

Speaker 8 If there is an economic storm ahead, Texas is a good place to weather it. But that also means negative indicators here could mean worse things elsewhere, says Rice University's John Diamond.

Speaker 13 If credit is tightening in Texas, then that's probably likely going on other places.

Speaker 8 For now, when it comes to tariffs, the eyes of Texas and the world are upon you.

Speaker 8 In Houston, I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 One of the things that happens when you have a job in business journalism in, shall we say, interesting times, is that people you know around town will stop you, like at the grocery store and say, to put it politely, what the heck is going on?

Speaker 2 So we thought that might be a useful way to spend a couple of minutes of airtime. I went out on Blue Sky yesterday and asked all y'all what's on your mind, tariffs, the economy, and everything.

Speaker 2 Got a bunch of good questions. Here are a couple, three of them.
First of all, from Mary Peterson in Seattle. Is the U.S.
economy about to freeze up?

Speaker 2 People stop investing in the stock market, stop buying things. Countries stop doing business with the U.S.
because they can't trust what President Trump will do next.

Speaker 2 Well, the short answer, Mary, setting aside not trusting what the President is going to do, is no. The American economy is a $27 trillion beast.
It is dynamic and diversified.

Speaker 2 The fundamentals, as politicians like to say, are strong. For now.

Speaker 2 But let's just take the stock market for one example, which, Mary, you know, assuming you're a regular listener, stock market is not the economy.

Speaker 2 But when markets go up, there is this thing called the wealth effect. Even people who aren't in the market feel wealthier when stocks go up.
So they spend and consume and drive economic activity.

Speaker 2 But the negative wealth effect is real too. When the market is down, people feel less wealthy and so they don't spend and the economy slows.

Speaker 2 So, no, the economy is not going to freeze up,

Speaker 2 but it probably is going to slow down.

Speaker 2 Second question from John Ferrara in Eagleville, Pennsylvania.

Speaker 2 Does Congress, John wants to know, have the ability to repeal the tariffs that Trump has put in place, or are they powerless to intervene?

Speaker 3 John.

Speaker 2 John, John, John.

Speaker 2 Article 1, Section 8, the Constitution of the United States of America, the Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts, and excises, and to regulate commerce with foreign nations.

Speaker 2 Congress explicitly has the tariff power, but they've given it to the president over the past couple of decades. So yes, they could repeal his tariffs.

Speaker 2 Republicans, though, in Congress are choosing not to.

Speaker 2 From Tom Hulse in Lake Forest Park, Washington, trade deficits, he wants to know about. The word deficit seems to be Trump's sticking point.

Speaker 2 Can they be described in a way that doesn't make the net importer sound like they are on the losing end?

Speaker 2 I actually think the president's businessman brain sees the word deficit or hears it, and he understands it to mean a loss. For a business person, a deficit often is a loss.

Speaker 2 But in trade, that's not true and it's not right. I, for instance, have a trade deficit with my local beer store.
I give them my money, but they give me beer.

Speaker 2 Same thing, if somewhat more complicated in global trade, the United States is a big, rich country whose citizens like to buy things often more cheaply than they can get here.

Speaker 2 They like to buy them from overseas. We send them money, they send us stuff.

Speaker 2 Maybe? Honestly, it's a vocabulary problem, and we should just stop calling it a trade deficit.

Speaker 2 Okay, last question: my personal favorite from Eric Wilkinson in Baltimore. Why isn't the void answering my screams?

Speaker 2 We didn't get a question about the U.S.-Russia economic relationship today, but we totally could. And more questions, by the way, can come to us on my Blue Sky feed.

Speaker 2 It's Kai Rizdahl, K-A-I-R-Y-S-S-D-A-L at BlueSky.

Speaker 3 Google it.

Speaker 2 It'll get you there. Anyway, Moscow was entirely absent from the otherwise pretty comprehensive list of countries that President Trump tariffed last week.

Speaker 2 And the president's interests in rebuilding ties with Russia are no secret. At the same time, though, the post-invasion sanctions are still in effect with no sign that's going to change.

Speaker 2 And in point of fact, the Yale School of Management says more than a thousand international businesses have left Russia or pulled back drastically in the past two years.

Speaker 2 But what if?

Speaker 2 What if there was business opportunity to be had over there? Charles Hecker lived and worked in Russia for decades. He's got a new book out.

Speaker 2 It's called Zero Sum, The Arc of International Business in Russia. Charles, welcome to the program.

Speaker 11 It's a pleasure to be here. Thank you.

Speaker 2 Could we do a level set here first?

Speaker 2 Before

Speaker 2 the invasion of Ukraine, what were things like in the Russian economy for American businesses?

Speaker 11 Well, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, business in Russia was feeling slightly apprehensive, but relatively comfortable.

Speaker 11 I mean, Russia had gone from a fairly wild frontier to a place that was complicated, but where you could get deals done.

Speaker 11 And I think that's the way American businesses felt: that it wasn't the easiest market to be in, but it was a place where you could do business.

Speaker 2 Aaron Powell, and that was, as you said, the result of three decades of American and international investment.

Speaker 2 And the promise was that, and look, we've seen this play out before, most specifically with China, the promise was that changing the economy would change politics in Russia. Didn't happen.

Speaker 2 What's your sense of why?

Speaker 11 Aaron Powell, that's right. So we made a series of assumptions about what would happen to Russia.
And in the early 1990s, the assumptions were a few things. And that is that

Speaker 11 if you invest in a country, that companies can change the way a country works. The other assumption was that this would help steer Russia towards becoming a liberal democracy.

Speaker 11 And in fact, we assumed that the two had to happen simultaneously, that you couldn't have a market economy without a liberal democracy.

Speaker 11 You know, we found out in countries like China that that's not necessarily the case. But in early days, we thought, you know, get lots of business into Russia.

Speaker 11 They'll learn about how to run a market, and they will democratize at the same time.

Speaker 2 Then, just to skip ahead a little bit, we get to the annexation of Crimea. We get to the invasion.

Speaker 2 American businesses, Western businesses largely leave, not entirely, but largely leave.

Speaker 2 And now what you have over there is Chinese businesses, Indian businesses, and the specter under President Trump of maybe American businesses being able to get back in there. What do you think?

Speaker 11 Well, that's absolutely right. So while the Westerners were away, a lot of other countries came to play.

Speaker 11 Famously, one of the big highways, as you get close to the city limits of Moscow, that highway is sort of dotted with car dealerships.

Speaker 11 And those dealerships used to sell things like Volkswagens and Toyotas and Nissans. Those car dealerships now are almost exclusively selling Chinese cars.
So there's been some change on the ground.

Speaker 11 But you're absolutely right, Kai, to point out that the conversation in the United States now has completely turned around.

Speaker 11 And with the advent of the Trump administration, the attitude of the United States now seems to be towards normalizing relations with Russia.

Speaker 11 And what that's done is it's kicked off a fairly widespread and fairly intense conversation about whether or how or when companies should go back.

Speaker 11 And not every American company that left Russia will go back, but I feel quite strongly that a lot of companies are talking about it.

Speaker 2 Aaron Powell, so let's say, just to keep with cars here, that Mary Barr, the CEO of General Motors, and look, I'm making this up.

Speaker 2 I have no idea what her plans are, but let's say she calls you and says, Charles, you've lived and worked in Russia for a very long time. You're an expert on international business over there.

Speaker 2 What do you think? Should I do it? What would you say?

Speaker 11 Well, I think I would tell her that the safest way to do business in Russia right now is probably from a distance.

Speaker 11 If there were a way for General Motors to put cars in boxes and export them to Russia and then unload them at a port, probably somewhere around St. Petersburg, that might be one way of doing it.

Speaker 11 But to go build a factory that you'll want to see there for 40, 50, 60 or more years,

Speaker 11 that's a big leap before a lot of other questions get resolved resolved about the future of Russia and international business.

Speaker 2 Aaron Powell, Jr.: Well, just on the way out here, let's lay out a couple of those questions.

Speaker 2 What else is there that's sort of floating around in your mind?

Speaker 11 Russian intellectual property law has been completely eviscerated. And what Russia is allowing its own companies to do is to essentially counterfeit Western medication.
So if I were an Eli Lilly

Speaker 11 based in the U.S., or if I were a Novo Nordisk, for example, based in Denmark, I'd be quite hesitant to go back until I knew that intellectual property rights in Russia were strong and defensible.

Speaker 11 And I think maybe even most importantly, there's been a change to the business elite in Russia that may or may not want Western business back.

Speaker 11 And if they do, it will probably be on their terms and conditions.

Speaker 2 Charles Hecker lived and worked in Russia for a very long time. His book on doing business over there is called Zero Sum, Sum, The Arc of International Business in Russia.
Charles, thanks a lot.

Speaker 2 I appreciate your time.

Speaker 11 It's a pleasure. Thank you.

Speaker 4 Coming up.

Speaker 15 Most of my friends had actual children, and I had this.

Speaker 2 A restaurant, but so much more. First, though, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 2 Yeah, the Wawa's early enthusiasm, and then reality hit tariffs, midnight, China 104%. Dow Industrials off 320 points, 8 tenths percent, 37,645.
NASDAQ down 335, 2.10%, 15,267.

Speaker 2 SP 500 dropped 79 points, 1.6 tenths percent, 49, and 82. Could have been, believe me when I tell you, so much worse.
Bond prices down, yield on the 10-year T-note up 4.29er%.

Speaker 2 percent you're listening to marketplace

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Speaker 2 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
President Trump is, of course, getting all the headlines, but tariffs are far from the only way that global trade gets short-circuited.

Speaker 2 The Democratic Republic of Congo, which mines a whole lot of cobalt, 77% of global supply, should you be curious, has banned the export of that metal since February and is now considering extending that ban in what's becoming something of a trend, countries restricting mineral sales to influence prices on the global market.

Speaker 2 Daniel Ackerman explains what that's going to mean for an American economy that at the moment doesn't really produce much in the way of critical minerals.

Speaker 20 You can find cobalt inside lots of technology. Your phone, electric car batteries, wind turbines.

Speaker 12 I would be exaggerating, but only slightly, if I said that airplanes would fall out of the sky without cobalt.

Speaker 20 Dinah McLeod leads the Cobalt Institute, a trade group. And she says more than two-thirds of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or DRC.

Speaker 12 DRC really depends on the tax revenues that are associated with mining. The government took this decision to try to prop up the price of cobalt.

Speaker 20 And prices have been propped.

Speaker 13 There's been a significant jump.

Speaker 20 Thomas Kavanaugh is editor of battery metals at the market intelligence firm Argus Media, and he says after the export ban started in February, the price of a key cobalt compound rose by more than 80%,

Speaker 20 and it could be just the start.

Speaker 13 There's actually been some talk of the DRC and Indonesia maybe teaming up and creating sort of an OPEC for minerals.

Speaker 20 There hasn't yet been OPEC-level coordination among mineral producers, but governments these days are taking more control of their mining sectors.

Speaker 20 Colin Hendricks is senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Speaker 20 He says they include not just the DRC in Indonesia, the world's top nickel producer, but also the top copper producer, Chile.

Speaker 13 They are

Speaker 21 seizing this moment where there's such an emphasis on critical minerals to really re-evaluate their development models.

Speaker 20 One goal is to ensure that the minerals mined in those countries get refined there, too. But Hendricks says the Trump administration wants to increase refining here in the U.S.

Speaker 21 That is now putting the United States in direct competition with the policy ambitions of many of these mineral-rich countries that are also trying to move into the processing space.

Speaker 20 Because when it comes to critical minerals, Hendricks says the real money isn't in digging them out of the ground, it's in turning them into something the world can use.

Speaker 20 I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 The restaurant business is tough even in the best of times. And the smaller and more neighborhoody a place is, the tougher that business is.

Speaker 2 Marketplace's Samantha Fields reports from Smith Street in Brooklyn, New York.

Speaker 22 When word got out that Leanda was closing, owner Ivy Mix says it started filling up early every night.

Speaker 15 Everyone wants to get a piece now that we're closing.

Speaker 22 Laynda is a cocktail bar and restaurant with a focus on Latin American spirits, tequila, mezcal, rum, cachaça, and food from all over the region. Papusos, mofongo, tacos.

Speaker 22 Inside, there's a long wooden bar, gold ceiling, and candles on the tables. Out back, there's a private airy patio with string lights and creeping vines.
Mix opened Leanda almost exactly 10 years ago.

Speaker 15 This little place,

Speaker 15 this little bar, has been like my whole life. You know, most of my friends had actual children, and I had this.

Speaker 22 But this winter, she and her co-owners decided not to renew their lease and to close.

Speaker 15 I mean, there's many reasons, right? The restaurant bar industry is difficult. It's become more difficult over time, the whole country over.

Speaker 22 But especially in New York, she says. Rent and insurance have gotten much more expensive.
So has the cost of labor.

Speaker 15 I'm the type of person that thinks that it should go up, but as a business owner, I'm like, whoa. If you look at our labor costs now compared to 2017, it's a huge difference.

Speaker 22 Same with food.

Speaker 15 We sell a lot of guacamole here. The cost of avocados have skyrocketed.

Speaker 22 Then there are credit card processing fees, which take three or four percent of the sale every time someone pays with a credit card, which is all the time.

Speaker 15 At the end of every month, it's like, here you go, MasterCard and Visa. Here's all this money.

Speaker 22 It all adds up in a business where if you're doing really well, you're making maybe 10 cents on the dollar.

Speaker 15 And at the end of the day, we're like, is the juice worth the squeeze? Like, maybe not. Like, maybe not right now.
Maybe not like this. Maybe not this iteration.

Speaker 22 A lot of restaurant owners are feeling the same way.

Speaker 22 Five years out from the start of the pandemic, Mick says people tend to think of it as being over, but the effects of COVID are still very much here.

Speaker 15 If you got loans out during COVID, they're due now. If you

Speaker 15 are trying to still make up from losing all that revenue in COVID, we're in that now.

Speaker 22 And the jubilance of post-vaccine 2021 and 22 when everyone was going out a lot is decidedly over, she says. Now people are eating out less and drinking less when they do.

Speaker 22 Then there's the future and tariffs.

Speaker 15 Everything I sell here is from a different country, literally everything. Also, most of my staff is from a different country.

Speaker 15 It is very scary to look at this and be like, okay, if I'm forecasting two or three years from now, do I like what I'm seeing?

Speaker 15 If my lease is up now and I'm not not going to get penalized for leaving it, I might just take the out.

Speaker 22 One of Mix's biggest worries about closing was what would happen to her staff, but she says almost all of them have jobs lined up. And she's not leaving the business entirely.

Speaker 22 She still has a wine bar in a different part of town and a wine store. But Laendo was her first place where she built her career and a community.

Speaker 22 Lots of regulars have been coming in these last few weeks to say goodbye.

Speaker 23 I came here on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. I'll be here on Friday and Saturday, so five days in a row.

Speaker 22 Devin Flynn Pro used to come in a few times a week when he lived in the neighborhood to sit at the bar and have a cocktail and tacos. Even now that he lives an hour away in Queens, he still comes.

Speaker 22 This last week, he's been getting here early every day to make sure he gets a seat at the bar.

Speaker 23 Tonight I'm going to be here for a very long time. I will definitely be going cocktail, mocktail, cocktail, mocktail.

Speaker 23 It's a celebration of how great the bar was and also, you know, a bit of a wake.

Speaker 22 His old regular coffee shop nearby just closed recently, too. It's weird, he says.
It makes him sad.

Speaker 23 Businesses and people make up a neighborhood. So I consider this neighborhood my favorite neighborhood in the city.

Speaker 22 But he says, with friends who've moved away and his favorite business is closing, he might have to start rethinking that. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 This final note on the way out today, just because I haven't mentioned it in a while, oil, the U.S. benchmark West Texas, off another 3.7% today, $58.46 a barrel, which, yay, cheaper gas.

Speaker 2 But also, boo, oil is down because a slowing economy means lower demand.

Speaker 2 Our digital and on-demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Mangi, Dylan Mietenen, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Ellen Rolfus, Edward Silver, Virginia K. Smith, and Tony Wagner.

Speaker 2 Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On Demand. And I'm Kylie Rizdahl.
We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 2 This is APM.

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