Looking for economic clues in corporate America

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Speaker 3 One looks for clues about this economy where one can find them. Today, it's in the books of corporate America from American Public Media.
This is Marketplace.

Speaker 3 In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdahl. It is Monday today, 21 July.
Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. This is going to be a fairly light data week coming up.

Speaker 3 We'll get home sales, both new and used, durable goods orders, a couple of speeches by Fed officials. That's about it.

Speaker 3 Never fear, though, because in the absence of A-list economic indicators, we are going to get a whole lot of information about how corporate America is doing.

Speaker 3 Quarterly earnings reports from the likes of Coca-Cola and GM, Lockheed Martin, Alaska, and American Airlines, Alphabet, Tesla, as well. We heard from Verizon today.
They did pretty well.

Speaker 3 Also, Stellantis, which didn't. The car maker, which reports in Europe, it's a conglomerate of Peugeot, Fiat, and Chrysler, lost $2.7 billion in the first half of the year.

Speaker 3 Some of that, it said, thanks to tariffs, and it warned of more pain to come. Marketplace Mitchell Hartman gets us going with what we might learn from the rest of this week's reports.

Speaker 6 About 15% of SP 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings so far. And says Mike Dixon Dixon at Horizon Investments.

Speaker 7 Overall, the early read from a corporate fundamentals perspective is quite strong.

Speaker 6 Starting with the big banks that reported last week, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America.

Speaker 8 They came in fairly strong, most beat expectations.

Speaker 6 Says Chris Haverland at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He expects a lot more beating of Wall Street expectations as the earnings roll in.

Speaker 8 But he points out, the bar has been set pretty low coming into this this earnings season.

Speaker 6 Many companies actually cut their earnings predictions in the past few months as uncertainty mounted about how much the Trump tariffs would hurt their bottom lines. Rob Hayworth at U.S.

Speaker 6 Bank Asset Management says now analysts want to know, are companies starting to see impacts from tariffs?

Speaker 10 Are those costs being borne by themselves? And so it's reducing their profits and profit margins. Are they passing them on to consumers? Or are they getting their suppliers to eat those costs?

Speaker 6 Hayworth expects to see the biggest impacts on industrial and healthcare companies.

Speaker 10 Steel and automotive tariffs very directly impacting the consumer discretionary sector. There's talk of significant tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

Speaker 6 Expectations are high for big tech, but not necessarily all of big tech, says Mike Dixon at Horizon Investments.

Speaker 7 We've got Apple, Tesla, and Google, which are still down on the year. And then, of course, you've got NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, you know, up 15, 20%.

Speaker 6 Now, remember our oft-repeated adage, the stock market is not the economy.

Speaker 6 But it does reflect what people and businesses are doing in the economy, spending or saving, investing or hunkering down, says Rob Hayworth at U.S. Bank.

Speaker 10 We do think of this right now as glass half-pull. There's consternation in consumer and small business sentiment, but the activity remains strong.

Speaker 10 Weekly retail sales, a solid labor market, solid wage growth.

Speaker 6 Meaning, companies can count on fairly strong demand to boost their bottom lines. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 Traders today were fine with what they're seeing from corporate America. Not very enthusiastic either way, up or down.
We will have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 3 There's a saying in colder parts of the country, or so I'm told, I mean, I live in Los Angeles, but there's a saying in more northerly climes that when it comes to driving, there are two seasons, winter and construction, which means that as we sit here in mid to late July, it's road construction season, which also means it's road closure season.

Speaker 3 And when that happens, when towns and cities replace sewers or sidewalks or repave roads or what have you, residents and local businesses do get the benefits when all that construction is done.

Speaker 3 But during, those businesses can pay a pretty significant short-term cost. From his hometown, Burlington, Vermont, Marketplace's Henri Epp takes it from there.

Speaker 11 Much of Main Street in the middle of the small city's downtown is a construction zone. Several blocks lined with small small shops, restaurants, and venues are closed to car traffic.

Speaker 11 Sidewalks are torn up too. In the middle of the street, crews have been working to replace a 150-year-old sewer 30 feet underground.

Speaker 11 It's been like this for well over a year now, and construction is supposed to go on for at least another year. Ray Taylor Burns lives in an apartment on Main Street.

Speaker 13 It feels like a wasteland instead of a lively downtown block.

Speaker 11 For businesses, that's hit the bottom line. Kara Tobin owns Honey Road, an upscale Mediterranean restaurant on Main Street.

Speaker 14 I mean we went from being the best location in Burlington to the worst location in Burlington overnight.

Speaker 11 Tobin estimates her revenue has declined during construction by 20 to 30 percent.

Speaker 14 The restaurant industry already operates on really small margins. Everyone knows that.
So to lose 20 to 30 percent of our revenue was huge.

Speaker 11 Tobin says she no longer counts on walk-in customers. She's closed her patio seating, taken out loans, and cut her own pay.

Speaker 11 Down the block, the music venue Nectars, famous for being the place where the band Fish got its start, has closed for the summer. And a breakfast place called the Cafe Hot has cut back too.

Speaker 16 So it got to a point where we had to play off the staff, got to a point where we've reduced from a seven-day schedule to a five-day schedule.

Speaker 11 Travis Walker-Hodkin is the cafe's co-owner.

Speaker 16 And it seems like there's a huge sacrifice being asked of this city for the future of this city. And the small businesses are receiving the bill.

Speaker 11 There's some evidence that large projects like this can have lasting effects on small businesses. Engling Fan is a professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Minnesota.

Speaker 11 She conducted a study that found even after a project ends, restaurants especially see lower revenue.

Speaker 15 Some of the previous customers

Speaker 15 may identify new businesses to visit and are no longer going to return as customers to some of those smaller businesses.

Speaker 18 Unfortunately, there's always some pain in all of these projects, no matter what you do, especially if they're much bigger.

Speaker 11 Dominic Longobarty is president of the American Public Works Association. The best way to minimize that pain, he says, is to communicate the overall goal of a project.

Speaker 18 Make sure that the people know, while it's a short-term inconvenience, I'll say, the benefits you hope are planned out to be long-term.

Speaker 11 In Burlington, the city's public works director, Chapin Spencer, has been trying to make that case, that doing the work now will pay dividends down the line.

Speaker 19 During my lifetime, we will not need to touch these sewer or water mains again.

Speaker 19 And that will allow the future vitality of this city for many, many years.

Speaker 11 Spencer says the city has been trying to help businesses by offering some interest-free loans, free parking downtown, and a marketing campaign.

Speaker 11 And soon, parts of Main Street will open to car traffic on nights and weekends.

Speaker 11 Some business owners here feel like the city's communication efforts throughout the project have fallen short, making it hard for them to plan.

Speaker 11 But Kara Tobin, owner of the restaurant Honey Road, says she's starting to see signs that the disruption will eventually end.

Speaker 14 Parts of Main Street, just south of us, you can see the sidewalks starting to be done and the roads being paved. And you get this little like glimmer of hope.

Speaker 14 You're like, oh yeah, when this is done, it's going to be nice.

Speaker 11 The question, she says, is whether her restaurant and the neighboring businesses can survive until then. In Burlington, Vermont, I'm Henrietta for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 While premiums for 2026 haven't been finalized as of yet, if you buy your health insurance through healthcare.gov or through your state marketplace, your premium is probably going up next year.

Speaker 3 According to some new analysis from the health policy nonprofit KFF, it looks like insurers that sell Affordable Care Act, Obamacare, if you like, plans, are going to be raising rates by about 15%, the biggest premium increase in seven years if it happens.

Speaker 3 And the enhanced subsidies that the federal government's been offering since 2021 are probably going away. Marketplace of Samantha Fields has more on that one.

Speaker 20 When health insurance companies want to raise premiums, they have to submit paperwork to state regulators justifying why.

Speaker 21 Usually these filings are just filled with a lot of math and numbers.

Speaker 20 Cynthia Cox at KFF says sometimes insurers also include a little narrative explanation about why they want to raise rates. This year, some of that narrative is the same as usual.

Speaker 20 The cost of health care has been going up and companies want to pass more of it on to consumers.

Speaker 21 But what's different for 2026 is that we're also seeing insurers talk a lot about federal policy.

Speaker 20 Tariffs, for one, and how they might push the cost of prescription drugs and medical devices even higher.

Speaker 20 But the main reason insurers plan to raise rates is that they expect Congress to let the enhanced subsidies that have made it a lot more affordable for people to buy ACA insurance expire.

Speaker 20 Matthew Fiedler at the Brookings Institution says if that happens, many enrollees are going to pay a lot more for their coverage.

Speaker 23 Some of those people are going to decide to drop their coverage as a result.

Speaker 20 And insurers are assuming that the people who are most likely to drop their coverage are people who are relatively healthy and that people who are sicker are more likely to keep theirs.

Speaker 23 So insurers are raising premiums to account for the fact that the typical enrollee in 2026 will now be someone who needs more care than the typical enrollee in 2025.

Speaker 20 Congress first approved the enhanced subsidies during the height of the pandemic in 2021. Since then, ACA enrollment has doubled from $12 million to $24 million.

Speaker 20 Cynthia Cox at KFF says with the rate increases insurers are planning and without the more generous subsidies, the average person will pay about 75% more to buy insurance for 2026.

Speaker 21 Let's say that we have a family of three making $110,000 a year. So right now they get a subsidy to help them with their monthly premium costs.
They're still paying almost $800 a month.

Speaker 20 Next year, without the subsidy, she says that same plan would cost them about $1,600 a month if they can afford to keep it. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 Coming up.

Speaker 5 But I don't think they're going anywhere.

Speaker 13 I say build them a stadium and move here.

Speaker 3 Same team, different city. But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 3 Dow Industrial is off 19 points today. That's less than a tenth of a percent, 44,323.

Speaker 3 NASDAQ picked up 78 points about 4 tenths percent closed to 20,974. The S P 500 up eight points about a 10th percentile 6305 first ever close above 6,300 should you be curious.

Speaker 3 So Lantis we talked about in the Mitchell Hartman lead shares even after that $2.7 billion loss up 1.5%

Speaker 3 because capitalism. Other car makers, General Motors flat, Tesla down about a third of 1%.
Ford banked 1.3%. Today Verizon, we talked about that as well.

Speaker 3 Up 4% 4% on the day after beating expectations. Bonds up.
Yield on the tenure. Tinot down 4.37%.

Speaker 3 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 3 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl.
So London was great and all. It's always nice to get out of the studio and do some reporting.

Speaker 3 But I did miss one of my favorite days on the economic calendar while I was gone. The Federal Reserve's Beige book came out last week.
We get it eight times a year.

Speaker 3 It's a broad, anecdotal-ish look at how economic activity out there is changing. And there were items on the usual suspects: retail and consumer activity, corporate investment.

Speaker 3 Also, the agriculture economy. Strained is a word that was used.
Falling repayment rates on farm loans, that popped up. Weak conditions is a quote.

Speaker 3 As Daniel Ackerman reports, it is tough out there for farmers right now.

Speaker 27 Clayton Johnson farms in the southwest corner of Minnesota.

Speaker 28 I farm with my dad. We farm corn, soybeans, a little bit of oats, and a little bit of alfalfa.

Speaker 27 Plus, a few cows and pigs.

Speaker 28 So we got a little bit of it all.

Speaker 27 Johnson says he's happy with the growing season so far.

Speaker 28 In my little area, we've been just getting by with timely rains.

Speaker 27 But even though the weather has been cooperating for Johnson, the market forces impacting his operation, not so much. He says the cost for fertilizer and pesticide applications has been rising.

Speaker 28 Honestly, it's scary. Input costs keep going up.
Our commodity prices keep going down.

Speaker 27 Low prices for commodity crops are a problem for farmers all over the country right now. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices are all fetching lower prices than they were three years ago.

Speaker 27 Brandon Gerrish is an extension specialist at Texas AM University. He says some wheat growers chose not to harvest their crop at all this year and let the livestock have at it instead.

Speaker 27 Beef prices are at a record high right now.

Speaker 29 Years like this, where

Speaker 29 wheat prices are low and beef cattle prices are high, we see a lot more producers grazing out their wheat rather than bringing it to grain harvest.

Speaker 27 Mitchell Hora farms wheat as well as corn, rye, and soybeans in southeast Iowa. And while he's noticed the rising input costs.

Speaker 30 For our operation, it's not that huge of a deal.

Speaker 27 Because Hora says he's invested in building up the health of his soil. He rotates his cash crops through different fields each growing season, and he plants cover crops over the winter.

Speaker 30 We've been doing these things now for more than a decade very diligently. and that's led us to be able to reduce our fertilizer usage by about 50%

Speaker 30 and reduce our pesticide usage by nearly 75%.

Speaker 27 Horace says that's improved his farm's resilience against both weather conditions and economic ones. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 People running arts organizations are most certainly not immune from the cascade of uncertainty that the Trump administration has brought to this economy.

Speaker 3 Earlier this year, the White House ordered the National Endowment for the Arts to cancel grants across the country, and in its 2026 budget, the administration has eliminated funding for that agency altogether.

Speaker 3 That is, of course, a big deal for the organizations that get NEA grants, as our parent company has in the past. But it affects people downstream of all that, too.

Speaker 3 Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

Speaker 17 My name is Monica Leo, and I'm with Eulenspiegel Puppet Theater. That's E-U-L-E-N-S-P-I-E-G-E-L Puppet Theater.
Don't ask me why we picked a name that's so hard to spell and pronounce.

Speaker 17 And we're in West Liberty, Iowa.

Speaker 17 I did not actually ever plan to run a puppet theater.

Speaker 17 I had these puppets sitting around and I happened to have a neighbor and she came over one day and she said, you know, we should do some puppet shows with those puppets.

Speaker 17 She really only really wanted to do it as a hobby. And when people started wanting to pay us to do shows,

Speaker 17 she was kind of through. And I ended up with one

Speaker 17 artistic partner that I worked with for 31 years. We'd always worked out of our homes, but you get kind of tired of stumbling over a puppet stage every time you try to go to the kitchen.

Speaker 17 And settling in this little town has been the best thing that could ever have happened to us.

Speaker 17 We do a lot of shows a year. We also do a lot of school residencies.
We'll go into a school. A lot of times it's three days.

Speaker 17 where we work with kids and create puppet shows with them and also perform for them and have them perform for the school.

Speaker 17 In the past, I will say that our touring fees covered 75% of every year's budget, and the rest of it came from local people coming to shows and also from grant support.

Speaker 17 Ever since the pandemic, that has changed a little bit.

Speaker 17 I'd say still probably at least 50% and usually 60 to 65 percent of our income comes from touring, but more of it comes from grants and donations now than in the past.

Speaker 17 Right now, we are really uncertain about some of our funding sources, especially things like the National Endowment for the Arts, which of course funds all the state arts councils.

Speaker 17 We'll have to figure out how to make up that difference. I do, you know, having done this for 50 years now,

Speaker 4 it's,

Speaker 17 I know we're going to do it. I know the money is going to come from somewhere.
I just don't know where.

Speaker 17 Puppetry is a very powerful art form.

Speaker 17 People do not really realize it's, in my opinion, now I'm probably going to irritate some legitimate theater people, but in my opinion, it's more powerful than just human theater because it deals in symbolism.

Speaker 17 And the other thing I love about puppetry is that you, you know, you can be a jack of all trades. You can write, you can build, you can perform, you can make music,

Speaker 17 you can do everything.

Speaker 3 That was Monica Leo. She runs Eulen

Speaker 3 Puppet Theater in West Liberty, Iowa. Let me just say, it is not pronounced the way it looks on the page.
We cannot do this series without you, you know.

Speaker 3 So let us know how things are going, would you? Marketplace.org/slash myeconomy.

Speaker 3 The Major Major League Baseball team, formerly known as the Oakland Athletics, sits dead last in the American League West. That, though, is arguably the least of their worries.

Speaker 3 After 56 years and four World Series titles, and that book Moneyball about how brilliantly efficient they were, the A's have finally made good on their decades-long threat to leave Oakland if they didn't get a new stadium, which they did not get.

Speaker 3 The plan is that come 2028, the A's, just the A's, thank you very much, or Athletics, no Oakland included, are going to become the Las Vegas A's in a spiffy new 33,000-seat stadium right on the strip.

Speaker 3 Until then, though, the team is currently playing Major League Baseball in a very minor league part, about 90 miles to the east in Sacramento. Marketplace of Matt Levin has that one.

Speaker 9 On a June Saturday night in Sacramento, about 8,300 people watched the A's take on the Cleveland Guardian, 60% of Sutter Health Park's capacity.

Speaker 9 That's fewer empty seats than an A's game in the Oakland Coliseum the past few years.

Speaker 9 But a fuller stadium doesn't necessarily mean a louder one, even when a little kid leads the crowd in the A's signature chant on the jumbo truck.

Speaker 9 The A's have banned the drums and voodoo Zuelas that were the rowdy hallmarks of the Oakland days. The vibe in Sacramento is more, hey look, there's a baseball game going on.
It's nice.

Speaker 31 Yeah, this definitely feels like AAA, right? It was small,

Speaker 31 intimate, but the Coliseum was a lot raucous, you know, a lot more fun.

Speaker 9 Down the right-field line, Scott McDonald and his two sons watched the A's warm up. Raised in an Oakland suburb, McDonald grew up going to the Coliseum.

Speaker 9 Like a lot of old school Bay Area fans in attendance, he felt a tinge of guilt buying a ticket.

Speaker 31 I swore I'm off and I said I wouldn't come once they moved.

Speaker 9 Part of the lure though, McDonald's two boys can lean over the wall and basically touch an A's play. In a cozy minor league ballpark, there really are no bad seats.

Speaker 9 You don't have to pay through the nose to avoid the nosebleeds.

Speaker 22 Actually tickets were pretty cheap like $33 and we're in the front row.

Speaker 9 Giovanna Magana is in the concourse behind home plate waiting for her dad to buy her a beer. She's also from the bay and used to tailgate outside the Coliseum.

Speaker 9 Official ticket prices through the A's box office are among the most expensive in baseball, but the secondary market on sites like StubHub can be very cheap.

Speaker 9 Although, if you're expecting minor league bargains at the concession stand.

Speaker 22 So, a house double cocktail is about $20,

Speaker 22 and a regular house cocktail, this one shot is $15. I don't remember the drinks being this expensive or the beer.

Speaker 9 Some of those higher prices are for fancier beers.

Speaker 9 The beer garden near the Leftfield Pavilion now features some upscale Bay Area craft offerings.

Speaker 9 Melissa Pehin and Chris Ryan used to spend an inning or two at the beer garden during minor league River Cat games here. They like the upgraded selections.

Speaker 13 Because we love Piny the Elder and that definitely wasn't here before.

Speaker 31 I do wish there was more like local Sacramento beers here though.

Speaker 9 Ryan was born and raised in Sacramento and a lifelong A's fan. Both he and PN are excited the team is here in their city.
Just wish the A's seemed as excited to be here too.

Speaker 9 Before the season, the A's announced their official name would not include the word Sacramento. Neither would the Jerseys.

Speaker 5 Yes.

Speaker 5 Because how long could this be, this residency?

Speaker 22 Possibly three years?

Speaker 32 I think minimum three years, max five years.

Speaker 22 No pride in the city that you're in.

Speaker 32 Seems like they're just like using us.

Speaker 9 Lots of Sacramentans feel this way. They're also offended by the huge Visit Vegas ad on the left field wall, which may be why A's home game attendance and the buzz inside the ballpark are sagging.

Speaker 9 Sure, the team's in last place, but Sacramento's NBA team, the Kings, has been bad for decades and still draws raucous sellouts.

Speaker 5 49.15's a new toll.

Speaker 9 In the absence of anything that actually says Sacramento on it, the hottest item at the on-deck merchandise store is the $40 t-shirt Stacey and Brian Peck just bought.

Speaker 9 A local landmark is emblazoned in green and gold on the front.

Speaker 5 Sacramento Bridge.

Speaker 3 The Tower Bridge. The Tower Bridge.

Speaker 13 And it's the only thing that shows

Speaker 13 the A's colors and the A's logos coming to Sacramento.

Speaker 9 The A's have said there's no mention of Sacramento on their merch because they don't want to mislead fans into thinking this is anything but temporary.

Speaker 9 Stacey Peck, though, she's holding out hope for something more permanent.

Speaker 13 But I don't think they're going anywhere. I say build them a stadium and move here.

Speaker 9 The A's lost to Cleveland that night 4-2. The Sacramento A's this year so far though, technically undefeated.
I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 This final note on the way out today, the last word, scorekeeping-wise, at least, on the GOP's big tax cut law.

Speaker 3 The Congressional Budget Office is out with its latest estimate of how much it's going to cost, that is, how much extra the government is going to have to borrow to pay for it.

Speaker 3 $3.4 trillion over 10 years. That matches earlier estimates.
10 million fewer people with health care as well. And that is going to bring costs of its own.

Speaker 3 Amir Babawi, Caitlin Esch, John Gordon, Noya Carr, Amanda Peacher, and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace editing staff. Kelly Silvera is the news director, and I'm Kyle Rizdahl.

Speaker 3 We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 3 This is APM.

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Speaker 12 With the largest lineup of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electrified vehicles to choose from, Toyota has the one for you.

Speaker 4 Every new Toyota hybrid comes with Toyota Care, two-year complementary scheduled maintenance, an exclusive hybrid battery warranty, and Toyota's legendary quality and reliability.

Speaker 5 Visit your local Toyota dealer today, Toyota.

Speaker 4 Let's go places. See your local Toyota dealer for hybrid battery warranty details.