The job market's bizarre balancing act

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Just how balanced is the job market?

Some corporate workers get a raise, plus the view on Trump's trade war from a Kansas farm.

From American public media, this is Marketplace.

In Denver, I'm Amy Scott in Ferkai Rizdahl.

It's Thursday, September 18th.

Good to have you with us.

A day after the Fed cut interest rates, citing some weakening in the job market, the Labor Department put out its weekly snapshot of unemployment claims.

The number of people filing first-time claims fell last week to 231,000, roughly in line with the recent average.

That's after the jobs report a couple weeks ago found that the number of people hired in August and the number who were let go or quit that month were about equal, which means employers aren't rushing to lay people off, but they're not rushing to hire either.

Marketplace's Sabri Beneshore has more on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has called a curious balance in the job market.

Employers over the last few months, generally speaking, have become less and less thrilled with the idea of hiring new people.

We've seen a lot of that.

Low hire,

much less demand for newer workers and job postings.

Corey Staley is a senior economist at Indeed.

Lots of reasons for this, a couple years of higher interest rates, general slowdown in the economy.

But employers are also not firing a ton of people.

They're just doing neither.

Employers are kind of acting like deer in the headlights right now.

Aaron Sojourner is a senior economist with the Up John Institute.

They're blinded a bit.

They're uncertain what's coming at them.

There have been big swings in economic policy.

And so they're really just scared to make a move.

Now, usually, if businesses don't want to hire as much, you get more people out of work looking for jobs.

But that is not quite what we are getting.

Eric Winograd is chief economist at at Alliance Bernstein.

Because of immigration and migration policy and perhaps even due to deportations, there are a lot fewer people available to work.

Employers want fewer people working and there are fewer people who want to work.

The demand for labor and the supply of labor are curiously in balance when they would not normally be.

And Winnograd says this balance is precarious.

When you're already running at much lower rates of hiring, it doesn't take very much to flip from net hiring to net layoffs.

The supply of jobs is pretty precarious right now, too.

The sectors with strong hiring have gotten fewer and fewer, says Indeed Staley.

Healthcare is the last one standing right now.

You know, you take two legs off that tripod and you're like, okay, you might be able to balance on one leg.

But for how long?

In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

Elsewhere in job news, some corporate workers will soon see a bump in their paychecks.

Bank of America said yesterday it'll start paying employees at least $25 an hour next month.

Amazon is also raising pay to more than $23 an hour on average for people who work in its fulfillment centers and in transportation.

The company will also cover more of their healthcare costs.

Marketplace's Samantha Fields looked into why now.

Bank of America first announced it would get all of its workers to at least $25 an hour by this year back in 2021.

That was a time when we had a very tight labor market.

Workers were hard to find.

And Aaron Dubay at UMass Amherst says Bank of America and other companies responded by raising wages.

I think we are seeing that the labor market, while it's getting less tight, still is generating wage growth as companies try to stay competitive.

Michael Strain at the American Enterprise Institute says turnover is expensive and being able to attract and keep the best workers tends to pay off.

Wages that are on the high end of the market will allow them to get some of the most productive workers who they can.

And so that's great for them and it's great for those workers.

Announcing these latest wage increases is also kind of a PR move, says Ben Zipperer at the Economic Policy Institute.

They are pretty much signaling the kind of wage increases that we're seeing most companies in the United States making.

Bank of America and Amazon are both bumping wages up by about 4% this year, which is in line with the national average.

Still, Zipperer says $25 an hour is not a bad starting salary.

That is close to the median wage in this economy.

So, what they're announcing is that these are kind of like middle-class jobs.

About 67 million people, nearly half of workers in this country, earn less than $25 an hour.

I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Wall Street today gave itself a raise.

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

I spent some time in Kansas last week talking to farmers for the upcoming season of our climate podcast, How We Survive.

It's all about the future of food on a hotter planet.

And while weather conditions are definitely always on a farmer's mind, there was something else they wanted to talk about, the trade war, which has driven up prices for farm equipment and fertilizer and driven away global buyers like China.

Even if this trade war were over today, there would be a one or two year lag before we kind of got back normal.

And I don't know that China's ever going to come back for

grain sorghum or soybeans or anything else.

I think we've shot ourselves in the feet.

That was Vance Emke, who farms in Healy, Kansas with his wife Louise.

With trade negotiators from the U.S.

and China sitting down to talk this week in Spain, I called them back up.

Hi, you two.

Hi there.

Hey, how's it going, Emmy?

Good.

Well, I spent some time last week on your farm in Kansas, but for people who haven't been there, can you explain what you grow and why the Chinese market is so important to you?

Okay, we farm out here in the high plains, western Kansas.

It's a dry land area.

Out here, we grow a lot of weed, corn, milo.

Trade war and the tariffs are definitely paramount on our mind.

And

candidly, we're getting our butts kicked.

We are not winning this thing.

Yeah.

And for people who aren't familiar with Milo, also known as grain sorghum, what is it it used for and why is China such a big buyer?

Well, grain sorghum is a feed grain just exactly like corn.

You know, out here we'd feed it to livestock.

But on the export end of it, China buys about 80 to 90% of what we export.

And currently, because of the trade war, they are buying absolutely none.

And as a consequence,

It has really hurt the grain sorghum price and elevators are just not being able to sell any of of it at all.

Many of these still have the entire 24 crop in storage and here we're getting ready to harvest the 25 crop.

Wow.

And so what happens?

Go ahead, Louise.

As far as China goes, while they may use it for free grain, they also have a drink that they make where Milo is used and they like to buy our Milo for that beverage.

Is that Baiju?

Is that what it's called?

Yes, that is correct.

That is correct.

Well, anyway,

you know, China has gone to, oh, they read the mail and they decided that we're going to get the hell out of Dodge, basically.

And they're now buying all the Milo or grainstorm they need from our friends down in Australia.

And they're teaching the Brazilians how to grow it as well as the Africans.

And so will they ever come back?

to the United States.

You know, that's extremely doubtful.

They also want a reliable provider, as does any country.

And it's not just the trade war, right?

USAID was also a big buyer of Kansas Milo through the Food for Peace program.

How has that, the demise of that program under the Trump administration affected you?

Well, that was the first loss.

It was the first dollar a bushel loss was when that announcement was made.

I mean, it instantly went down.

I had just heard us.

That Food for Peace program was a great program started here in Kansas and Eisenhower and a local farmer suggested it.

And here we are.

So that's been a devastating market loss.

Well, annually,

USAID spent $2 billion

a year buying up surplus commodities like we're enjoying right now with the grain sorting thing and exporting that to countries in need that are politically vulnerable.

But it also helps support our price.

Anyway, that segment of the market is also gone, just exactly like the Chinese market is gone.

So again, we're being hurt by that loss.

So driving across Kansas last week, I saw just acres and acres and acres of Milo and corn and soybeans further east getting ready for harvest.

You mentioned all these grain elevators that still haven't sold last year's crop.

So where are they going to put all this stuff when it gets harvested?

Well, they create flatbeds on the side of the highway or near their elevator and they skim it off and try to put it, make it real flat.

They'll send,

you might weigh at the main elevator and then they're going to send you out to the pile, it's called.

You know, these piles are kind of in large part, they'd just be out on the open on ground and subject to the weather, you know, like rain and snow.

I remember a couple of years ago in the pile, they had two and a half million bushels of grain sword stored out there.

And that happened to be a year in which we got a lot of rain.

And when they were picking that thing up, there was about 30,000 bushels of just rotten grain

in the bottom.

Wow.

Well, I know you make a lot of your living as a seed dealer,

but

are you starting to feel this in the bottom line?

And how about your neighbors?

Yeah, absolutely.

You know, with the real low wheat price that we've got, which is just a little bit about $4

a bushel.

And that would have been a great price back in 1980.

Now here we are, you know, 40 years later.

Everybody suffers because of this.

There are no survivors out there.

You know, farmers just cut back on everything.

I mean, they're getting cuts, so they're going to cut back.

They won't buy machinery.

They might not till as much as they should, maybe.

I mean, that's the only thing you can try to control is that what you're putting into it.

Well, President Trump is scheduled to speak with Chinese President Xi on Friday.

What, if anything, are you hoping could come from the call and from the larger negotiations going on this week?

Going on, Luigi.

Wow.

Let's be friends.

Can you be friends?

Hey, I'm sorry.

Do you need some of those that corn?

You need some of that soybeans?

You know,

we need China as

a customer.

You know, at this point, I don't know what can be done to salvage the relationship.

You know, like we were saying earlier, even if this thing were over today,

it would be one or two years before we could get back on track.

You know, the Trump people say that, trust us,

we know that you farmers are going to have some tough times here for a year or two, but

down the road,

we're going to enter this glorious age of agriculture and profitability.

The way I'm looking at things, one or two years from now, we're going to be at the bottom.

Bankruptcies are continuing.

I mean, the outlook is just flat grim.

And I had a great deal of trouble.

uh believing that uh there is something glorious out there because the people who win the trade war is not the United States or China.

It's going to be countries like

Brazil, Australia, some of the African countries who are going to pick up all that trade that we just dumped.

Well, Vance and Louise Mke, great to talk to you again.

They run a farm and seed operation in Healy, Kansas.

Thank you so much.

Thank you, Annie.

Yeah, any time.

You can hear more about how farmers are faring in a changing climate on the new season of How We Survive coming October 15th, wherever you listen to podcasts.

Coming up.

We've seen some people outside yell, like, what's a fat mall?

We'll find out, but first, let's do the numbers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 124 points, a quarter percent, to finish at 46,142.

The NASDAQ added 209 points, a little over 9 tenths percent, to close at 22,470.

And the SP 500 gained 31 points, half a percent to end at 6,631.

The world's most valuable company has agreed to invest $5 billion in a down-on-its-luck competitor.

NVIDIA and Intel plan to collaborate on new chips for personal computers and servers.

NVIDIA added 3.5%.

Intel accumulated 22.4%.

That means the federal government's stake in the company has appreciated by 49%

in less than a month.

You're listening to Marketplace.

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Others say Odo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable.

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This is Marketplace.

I'm Amy Scott.

In housing news today, Freddie Mac said mortgage interest rates have fallen to their lowest level in almost a year, 6.26%

on average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

For people who've been priced out of the traditional housing market, mobile homes have long been an affordable alternative.

But climate change is changing that equation.

People living in mobile homes are especially vulnerable to extreme weather, excessive heat, and cold.

Reporter Claire Carlson has been looking at some solutions for the Daily Yonder.

Welcome to the program.

Thanks for having me.

Your story starts with Sean and Brian King, who are living in an older home and then get an upgrade.

How did their lives change?

So they were living in a mobile home in Madras, Oregon, which is in the central part of the state.

And their home had been built more than 50 years ago.

So prior to a lot of the building codes that have since been created for mobile homes and manufactured homes that guarantee better insulation, better HVAC systems, things that make it more comfortable to live in during extreme weather.

So they actually applied for a program that is through the nonprofit organization Energy Trust

to help pay for a new manufactured home.

And in 2024, they got it.

So it completely transformed their lives.

Brian, he lives with a disability.

He's now able to actually access parts of his home he wasn't able to before.

Sean can now cook inside during the summer when it's hot.

Prior to their new home replacement, she was cooking outside because it would just heat up their house too much.

So it was a total transformation for them.

I think people are familiar with some of the extreme weather risks to mobile homes from, say, tornadoes or hurricanes, but I was surprised how vulnerable they are to extreme heat and cold.

Why is that?

So about one-fifth of all of the manufactured homes that currently exist in the U.S.

were built before mobile home building codes were put in place.

So insulation is often worse.

For Sean and Brian King, they had to, they would just put like bubble wrap and anything possible inside their windows to prevent the cold from seeping in, but still they would have ice on the inside of their windows before they got their home replaced.

And this can even be deadly.

I mean, you cite the heat dome in Oregon in 2021.

Yeah.

How many deaths were in mobile home parks?

So there was more than 100 people who died in that heat dome, and about 20% of them were actually living in mobile homes at the time.

How does this energy trust replacement program work?

It can pay for up to $16,000 for a single or double-wide home replacement.

And that does not cover the whole cost of replacing one of these homes.

I mean, for Sean and Brian King, theirs cost over $100,000 to replace, which is a lot.

But this program helps them get their feet through the door in terms of connecting them with other agencies that can get them funding.

They also got help through a low-interest loan organization.

So now I think their payments are about $45 a month, which is really affordable for them.

And we've also seen some recent federal investments in providing funds for weatherization,

energy efficiency get cut.

How is that affecting people who live in mobile homes?

Yeah.

So the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, that's a federal program that actually helps low-income people pay their utility bills.

And a lot of folks living in mobile and manufactured homes benefit from that program.

But that's that program specifically is named in the 2026 budget proposal from the Trump administration.

They are suggesting totally eliminating the program, which would significantly affect

everyone who currently relies on that program in the U.S.

But especially for folks in mobile homes who,

if they do have an AC unit and they're trying to cool down their house in the summer,

But the only way they can afford to do so is because they get funding through the low-income home energy assistance program.

That could create a big gap for them in terms of trying to cool down their home or heat it in the winter.

All right.

Claire Carlson wrote about mobile homes and extreme weather for the Daily Yonder.

Thanks so much for sharing your reporting.

Thanks for having me.

The global market for plus-size clothing is worth more than $300 billion and growing.

That's according to Grandview Research.

Some fashion brands understand that and have recently taken steps to be more size-inclusive.

But people with larger bodies say the in-person shopping experience can still be frustrating.

Enter a new mall in Seattle, tailor-made for these shoppers.

Marketplace's Savannah Peters takes us there.

Dakota Joiner is browsing a rack of string bikinis and body harnesses.

Those are bold, strappy accessories that come in black, shimmery pastels, and rainbow ombre.

So I really kind of want one of those.

I just can't decide.

Like, I do like the multicolor.

Dakota is shopping with his mom, Brandy Joiner, and weighing which color would look best with a crop top he picked out.

I don't know, I think I'm going to do a sweat mall.

What do you think?

They're fresh from the airport, here on vacation from Chicago.

Brandy says their first stop had to be the new Seattle Fat Mall.

We heard from this from a friend.

And I was like, how as a fatty could I not want to come here?

The fat mall has been open since April.

As part of a partnership with the city, its temporary and rent-free home is a vacant downtown office space, livened up with neon paint and rainbow tinsel on the walls.

Brandy and Dakota are finding some gems.

It's so hard to find like fashionable fat clothes.

I feel like everything is the same cut or just a graphic tee.

But here there are bold patterned mini skirts, sparkly cut-out tops.

Wait, but I do love a little like crop moment.

There aren't enough of these spaces for fat people.

There just is not.

We just kind of all get overlooked.

The Seattle Fat Mall and its dozen vendors are trying to make those overlooked shoppers feel centered.

Their bodies are accommodated and celebrated everywhere, from the spacious dressing rooms to the plus-size mannequins in the alteration shop.

Even the pop-up tarot readers cards feature people with larger bodies.

We've seen some people outside yell, like, what's a fat mall?

They're like, it's a mall for fat people.

It's really self-explanatory.

Candice Frank is one of the mall's co-creators.

Speaking to me from the chair in the mall's tattoo parlor, she's getting one of the artist's most popular flash designs.

It's a Miss Piggy tattoo.

Frank is a fashion designer.

She's been selling under her brand Chubrub Clothing online since 2023, but she knew there was unmet demand for joyful in-person plus-eye shopping.

We all grew up going to the mall, of course, but if you're a fat kid, you were probably buying jewelry and shoes while your friends were buying clothes.

Frank says the fat mall is trying to rewrite that experience.

Our bodies, whether they should change or not, I don't even want to debate.

They still need to be clothed no matter what.

So why shouldn't we wear things that we feel good in and feel excited about?

Look at this.

That is wonderful.

And it's so soft.

I know.

A few stalls over in one of of the mall's resale shops, Billie Grant pulls a forest green sweater dress off the rack and adds it to the arm full of clothes she's taking to the fitting room.

The hardest thing that I have to deal with is how

much time I'm spending looking for things that will make my body feel good.

And

that's not happening here, you know?

Like, it's not necessarily even about actually buying the thing.

It's just about seeing that someone cared enough to curate it.

But people are buying plenty of things at the Seattle Fat Mall.

Sales are strong enough that the mall's creators are looking into leasing a permanent space once its deal with the city comes to an end in December.

There definitely is money left on the table when it comes to plus-size consumers, like no doubt at all.

Candice Frank says, what the fat mall is doing really shouldn't be that subversive.

People in larger bodies have money in their pockets.

Businesses just need to give them a place to spend it.

In Seattle, I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

No final note today, just too much to talk about.

Our daily production team includes Andy Corbin, Nicholas Guillong, Maria Hollenhorst, Iru Ekunobi, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry, and Sophia Terenzio.

I'm Amy Scott.

Hope to see you back here tomorrow.

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