Tariff pain and retaliation

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Speaker 5 One word, one guess, people. What do you got?

Speaker 5 From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 5 In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizdahl. It is Tuesday today, March the 4th.
Good as always to have you along, everybody. Should you be wondering whether we are in a trade war?

Speaker 6 Yes.

Speaker 5 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico, another 10% on China on top of the 10% already imposed. Retaliatory tariffs, because this is the way things go in a trade war, have already started.

Speaker 5 Canada is going to hit alcohol, clothing, and appliances. China's doing chicken, wheat, and other things, agricultural.
Mexico says it is going to.

Speaker 5 Exact list as yet, TBD.

Speaker 5 And look, this is a dynamic policy environment, right? Changes are possible by the very hour as we've seen since the inauguration. But spare a thought in this moment for the business owners.

Speaker 5 Stuck in the middle. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab made some calls.

Speaker 8 Paul Weissman at Healthy Avocado imports more than a million boxes of avocados a year. And he says the industry has been a little touch and go lately, even before tariffs.

Speaker 8 Supply from Mexico has been down because of bad weather.

Speaker 9 The prices for Super Bowl were twice what they were last year.

Speaker 8 Which impacted sales. It makes him wonder if people have already reached the price threshold for guacamole.

Speaker 9 Will consumers pay three or four dollars each for an avocado? I don't think so.

Speaker 8 Mexico is the biggest supplier of avocados. So all he can do is wait to see how tariffs impact prices and wait to see if farmers adjust to compensate.

Speaker 8 Erica York at the Tax Foundation says the cost of tariffs is a big factor for businesses and consumers. But a perhaps bigger consequence for the economy is the uncertainty of trade policy.

Speaker 10 That itself has a negative impact on business investment, on business activity. If you're a business trying to plan a long-term investment, you're going to sit on your hands.

Speaker 8 York says, even if a trade war doesn't emerge, and even if, say, Trump reversed these tariffs, they've created friction for companies across borders.

Speaker 10 These are business relationships that have developed over years. We don't really see them snap back into place overnight.

Speaker 8 This is the main worry for Chip McElroy at McElroy Manufacturing in Tulsa. Many of the components he uses to make construction equipment come from Canada and Mexico.

Speaker 8 That's also where most of the finished equipment he exports ends up. He thinks retaliatory tariffs might make his customers look elsewhere.

Speaker 9 There is an influx of Chinese equipment that is substandard to what we provide, but is,

Speaker 9 well, let's just say Chinese priced.

Speaker 8 While he waits to see how it all shakes out, he'll be doing some component pricing.

Speaker 9 Job one

Speaker 9 is to gain some clarity on

Speaker 9 what actual impact these tariffs are going to have.

Speaker 8 So he can quantify the new cost of thousands of components that go into one piece of construction equipment. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

Speaker 5 One of the realities of tariffs is that they hit differently depending on, among other things, where you are. Henry Epp did a story for us the other day.

Speaker 5 about New England and New York perhaps having to pay more for electricity than it gets from Canada.

Speaker 5 Sure enough, today Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, said that province is going to impose a 25% tariff on power it sends to a million and a half homes in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York.

Speaker 5 Texas, meanwhile, has what amounts to a roughly $300 billion trade relationship with Mexico all on its own.

Speaker 5 So after 30 years of free trade, Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval takes us to the state where everything is bigger, including the effects of tariffs.

Speaker 3 New tariffs could raise the price of what Texans eat and drink.

Speaker 11 It's beer, it's liquor, produce, agave, sugar, coffee, chocolate.

Speaker 1 And where they sleep.

Speaker 12 Softwood lumber, which is like your frame lumber, gypsum board, which is your drywall. All those are largely sourced in Canada and Mexico.

Speaker 12 And these tariffs on the building materials would drive up the cost to build the homes.

Speaker 3 That was Emily Williams Knight with the Texas Restaurant Association and Houston area homebuilder Matthew Ribenstein.

Speaker 3 Out in West Texas, oil producers who get pipes from Canada and Mexico could feel the squeeze, says Carr Ingham with the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.

Speaker 11 There's a lot of steel that is deployed in the business of drilling for and producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas.

Speaker 3 In the trucking industry, which has boomed under free trade, John Esparza with the Texas Trucking Association says he worries tariffs will increase the cost of semi-trucks and decrease demand for trucking.

Speaker 12 That could mean less business and that at a higher cost.

Speaker 3 Many trucks operate out of Laredo, which is particularly exposed to tariffs, says Daniel Covarubias with Texas A ⁇ M International University.

Speaker 14 On a 30-mile radius here across border, you have upwards of 1,500 logistics companies, transportation companies, customs brokers, or logistics warehouses.

Speaker 3 These firms grew out of decades of free trade.

Speaker 12 But economist Rape Herryman says now with tariffs, you really rip up an entire supply chain that we've spent the last 50, 60 years building. It really begins to impact employment in a significant way.

Speaker 12 Because of the inflation, consumers have less money to spend.

Speaker 3 He says if tariffs are sustained, all states will feel it, but especially Texas, because its economy is so integrated with Mexico's. I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

Speaker 5 On Wall Street today, well, let's just say the major indices closed off their lows, shall we? We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 5 Walgreens has been a publicly traded company for nearly a century. And according to the Wall Street Journal, it might be about to be taken private.

Speaker 5 The retailer, which also owns the Boots chain over in the UK, is said to be in talks to sell to the private equity firm Sycamore for about $10 million.

Speaker 5 Truth is, though, that Walgreens has been struggling for about a decade now, and it is not the only drugstore chain out there that's been having having a hard time.

Speaker 5 Rite 8 has filed for and come out of bankruptcy protection. CVS is in trouble.
And all three chains have been closing stores by the score.

Speaker 5 Marketplace's Samantha Fields has more now on what's going on with the retail pharmacy industry.

Speaker 15 Walking into a big pharmacy these days can be kind of depressing. Empty shelves, locked-up products, long lines to pick up prescriptions.

Speaker 16 If your stores aren't very good, then why would people bother to go in there?

Speaker 15 Neil Saunders at Global Data says chain pharmacies were designed to be convenient.

Speaker 16 The place you can quickly pop to if you need a pint of milk or you need to buy a replacement skin care or something like that.

Speaker 15 For years, he says pharmacies figured people would just keep coming in no matter what because of that convenience factor.

Speaker 16 They became very lazy. They just don't bother with retail.

Speaker 15 And with so many other convenient options now, including speedy online delivery, Saunders says customers have drifted away from pharmacies and sales have fallen.

Speaker 15 On top of that, Dima Cato at USC's School of Pharmacy says drugstores aren't making nearly as much as they used to filling prescriptions either.

Speaker 17 Reimbursement for prescription drugs has declined, and that's really the source of profit for pharmacies. So that's made it worse and more challenging for pharmacies to stay operational.

Speaker 15 The main reason they're making less on prescriptions has to do with the consolidation of pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, the companies that negotiate drug reimbursement rates with insurers, manufacturers, and pharmacies.

Speaker 15 George Hill at Deutsche Bank says today about 80% of prescriptions go through just three PDMs.

Speaker 18 They just have incredible negotiating power and incredible leverage and have done a great job of forcing retail pharmacies to compete against each other, which has led to dramatic erosion in pharmacy payments and pharmacy reimbursement.

Speaker 15 Couple that with the decline in the in-store experience, and Hill says big pharmacy chains have found themselves in a downward spiral.

Speaker 18 The customer experience isn't good, so fewer customers want to go there.

Speaker 18 So the stores make less money, so they have less money to invest in the customer experience, which means fewer people want to go there, which means earnings continue to erode.

Speaker 19 And on and on.

Speaker 15 It's a tough cycle to break. I'm Samantha Fields from Marketplace.

Speaker 5 We're past the dismal days of all that supply chain agedo we went through the pandemic.

Speaker 5 But what happened supply-wise back then is still playing out in where companies store their stuff, warehouses, specifically how many of them retailers need, how big, and where they should be.

Speaker 5 And the warehouse business just ain't keeping up. Liz Young wrote in the Wall Street Journal the other day about the warehouse market and which sizes of it are currently out of stock.

Speaker 5 Liz, thanks for coming on.

Speaker 4 Thanks so much for having me.

Speaker 5 Let's get a little ground truth here. When we talk small or smaller warehouses, what are regular warehouses and then

Speaker 5 how big are our smaller warehouses?

Speaker 2 So warehouses can obviously run the gamut in terms of size. They can be quite small, I mean a thousand square feet.

Speaker 2 They can be the million plus square foot buildings that we see on the side of highways.

Speaker 2 So I looked and set the definition of a small warehouse as anything under 100,000 square feet. Now, of course, that's still quite large.

Speaker 2 But compared to the whole gamut of what's happening with warehousing, those are considered quite small.

Speaker 5 Okay. Now let's talk vacancy rates.
What's the difference between above and under 100,000 square feet?

Speaker 2 So the overall nationwide vacancy rate in the fourth quarter was 6.7%, which has been climbing quarter over quarter. And what I found was that the vacancy rate for U.S.

Speaker 2 warehouses under 100,000 square feet was 3.9%,

Speaker 2 while buildings that are more than 100,000 square feet had a 10.1% vacancy rate.

Speaker 6 Okay, how come?

Speaker 2 So the reason is a few different things. There's a lot of demand for smaller spaces, especially as companies get more careful about their leasing decisions.
There's general economic uncertainty.

Speaker 2 A ton of companies expanded quite a lot during the pandemic. And so companies have since kind of dialed that back.
So if they've taken on more space, they've looked to take on smaller spaces.

Speaker 2 At the same time, that kind of frenzied pace of expansion during the pandemic prompted a lot of real estate developers to say, hey, we want to get in on this. And they started building warehouses.

Speaker 2 But almost all of those have been concentrated in that large category, if you will.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I mean, you can go, and we did during the pandemic. We did stories out there.
You go 35 miles east from LA, 40-ish, whatever.

Speaker 5 You get out to the the Inland Empire in Riverside County, and there's warehouses all over the place, and they're huge. And now they want smaller ones that I'm going to guess are closer in, right?

Speaker 5 It's that whole last mile thing.

Speaker 2 Absolutely. Yeah.
So a lot of these properties, when they're smaller, are closer to cities. So they might be in urban areas themselves.
They might be in suburban areas.

Speaker 2 And that means space is tight and land is expensive.

Speaker 5 So talk to me about the retailers who want these smaller spaces. You talked about in this piece, half-price books.

Speaker 2 So half-price books is a discount secondhand books retailer. They have stores across the country.

Speaker 20 They

Speaker 2 have kind of localized so that mostly they fulfill orders out of their stores, but they like to have a little bit of warehouse space, especially in certain markets, to have extra stock on hand.

Speaker 2 So, one example of where they've run into this problem with a shortage of small warehouses is that they've been looking for a new warehouse in the Twin Cities region of Minnesota for more than a year and haven't been able to find anything.

Speaker 5 So, what are they doing? I mean, it's not like they can go to one of those, you know, maybe they can, one of those self-storage places and rent like a storage garage.

Speaker 2 Yeah, they are, in fact, using temporary storage.

Speaker 20 I was kidding. Sorry.
Yeah, and

Speaker 2 they also are just doing what we all do with our homes, right? If you run out of space, you start to go through and think, okay, what can I get rid of?

Speaker 5 What about the biggies? Because the biggies have that whole, you know, we'll get it to you in three hours thing. And it's not like they're driving from Riverside County to my house in L.A.

Speaker 5 in three hours, even on a good day, you know?

Speaker 2 Yeah, absolutely. So a lot of the big companies, of course, are the ones driving up demand for this space.

Speaker 2 There's also companies that specialize in renting out.

Speaker 2 If a company has an extra 100,000 square feet in their own warehouse, but they're not using it, there are companies that then come in and connect, you know, somebody who wants that space with the company that has it.

Speaker 5 Aaron Powell, Jr.: So as the person on this call who specializes in supply chains and logistics, what's your sense of how companies are feeling now given the economic audita that is out there and seems to be on the horizon and what these companies are feeling in terms of their supply chains and logistics and how they're going to be able to do business.

Speaker 2 Yeah, absolutely. I think that this is creating a stressor.
I think they need the space.

Speaker 2 There's uncertainty about when construction will pick up in this category, and they don't know what they'll do without it.

Speaker 2 So, I'm sure that some of them will have to think differently about their supply chains and organize things in a different manner because they're unable to get the space that they feel they need.

Speaker 5 Liz Young at the Wall Street Journal. Liz, thanks a bunch.

Speaker 2 Thanks so much for having me.

Speaker 5 Coming up.

Speaker 13 So we grew up watching Manchester United play. So I think soccer has just always been around me.

Speaker 5 Turning that into a business. But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 5 Dow Industrial down 670 points today. 1.5% closed at 42,520.
The NASDAQ slipped 65 points. That's about a third of 1%.

Speaker 5 18,285. The SP 500 subtracted 71 points, 1.2%,

Speaker 5 57, and 78. Best Buy beat fourth quarter expectations, but the outlook was mixed.
CEO said price increases are likely due to China and Mexico tariffs. Where have you heard that before?

Speaker 5 Best Buy down 13 and a third percent today. Target shares dwindled 3%.

Speaker 5 After that, retailer also warned tariffs could drag down profits. Target said price increases could take effect in stores as early as, get this, the next couple days.

Speaker 5 Samantha Fields was telling us about Walgreen Boots Alliance, going private, maybe. For now, still publicly traded.
Shares elevated 5.6% today. Competitor CBS Health took down about 1.10%.

Speaker 5 Bond prices fell as well. The yield on the 10-year Tino thus rose 4.25%.

Speaker 5 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 22 Lowe's knows that saving is always top of mind, especially this season. That's why we've picked some great deals for early Black Friday.

Speaker 22 Get free select DeWalt, Cobalt, or Craftsman tools when you buy a select battery or combo kit. More tools? Why not?

Speaker 22 Plus, we've got select pre-lit artificial Christmas trees starting at $59.98 because it's never too early to think Christmas. Get Black Friday prices without the crowds.
Flows, we help. You save.

Speaker 22 While supplies last, selection varies by location.

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Speaker 5 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
Here's your semi-regular reminder that just one in five federal employees live in or near Washington, D.C.

Speaker 5 The flip side of that coin, of course, is that four out of five, 80%, don't, including most of the 2,000 Forest Service workers who've been sacked by Elon Musk and his operatives.

Speaker 5 And in a lot of places, those public lands agencies agencies like the Forest Service are major employers. Places like McCall, Idaho, population about 3,700.

Speaker 5 The Mountain West News Bureau's Murphy Woodhouse has more.

Speaker 21 It's a postcard snowy day in the charming lakeside town of McCall, but it's warm inside the Flying M Cafe where Forest Service workers are preparing for a protest. One of them is Emily Koharski.

Speaker 21 She got laid off from Idaho's Payat National Forest on Valentine's Day.

Speaker 13 It felt pretty horrible.

Speaker 21 Kaharski was a trail crew lead, and in a memo, she was told she had not shown that her continued employment would, quote, be in the public interest.

Speaker 25 I mean, the main part of my job in the winter is safety. I ride out on snowmobiles.
I check avalanche reports. I disseminate information to the public.

Speaker 21 Kaharski was a probationary employee. She liked her work and did it well.
In her most recent performance review, she was deemed to be, quote, fully successful.

Speaker 21 Kogharski is here for the protest, but she also brought her resume.

Speaker 25 I want to work. I want to find a job.

Speaker 25 I'm going to pass out my resume and tell people what has happened to me and ask for help.

Speaker 21 A union steward with the National Federation of Federal Employees said that 45 Forest Service employees on the payette have been laid off recently.

Speaker 21 New Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins supports the administration's efforts to, quote, eliminate inefficiencies and strengthen USDA's many services to the American people, according to a statement.

Speaker 21 Last week, a federal judge found that the layoffs of probationary employees were likely illegal. The firings have spurred protests across the West.

Speaker 21 Some 50 people, including the Forest Service workers from the Flying M, are gathered at a small park near snow-covered Payette Lake. Bryce Spear takes the mic.

Speaker 21 He's a now former backcountry ranger and was also a probationary employee. He was also told that his continued employment was not in taxpayers' interest.

Speaker 26 I take a real great offense to that.

Speaker 21 Spare's job included patrolling trails and keeping bathrooms clean. Like many in the Forest Service, he started his career as a seasonal worker before getting a permanent position.

Speaker 21 Spare's supervisor was disturbed by his termination, and she provided Spear with a letter calling the notion that his work did not serve the public a farce.

Speaker 21 Spare says he and other laid-off colleagues represent decades of on-the-ground experience.

Speaker 26 There's a ton of knowledge that's being lost right now.

Speaker 21 By early afternoon, nearly 150 protesters line McCall's main drag.

Speaker 21 Chants and the honks of supportive motorists fill the air. Bethany Thomas works at a local bookstore.
Her sign reads, Valley County stands with our federal workers.

Speaker 19 You know, our neighbors, our friends, our kids' soccer coaches are federal employees. And without their income, our community doesn't have money coming into it.

Speaker 21 County data show that the Forest Service is the area's third largest employer, ahead of a school district, the local hospital, and a major ski resort.

Speaker 19 And I have huge concerns

Speaker 19 over

Speaker 19 what this means for our forests and our communities in the coming fire seasons.

Speaker 21 While Forest Service fire personnel are exempt from the layoffs, many non-fire staff play key roles in preventing or responding to wildfires.

Speaker 13 A lot of us are in support positions.

Speaker 21 That's Brad LaPlant, the Payat Union steward. Even though he works in Forest Health, he is regularly deployed on fires.

Speaker 13 It helps come July and August when fire season is really ramped up.

Speaker 21 LaPlante still has his job, but he's worried about whether he and the other workers who remain can fulfill the Forest Service's missions, like caring for the land and keeping communities safe from fire.

Speaker 21 In McCall, Idaho, I'm Murphy Woodhouse for Marketplace.

Speaker 5 These are solid days for soccer fans. The English Premier League is on, Europe's Champions League, MLS here in the States is going, and the NWSL starts next week, its season.

Speaker 5 And then in the summer of 2026, the center of the soccer universe comes to the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the World Cup. In the meanwhile, soccer in the U.S.
is booming.

Speaker 5 Participation from 2018 to 2023 up 28%.

Speaker 5 And more players means more customers. Which brings us to today's installment of our series, My Economy.

Speaker 13 I'm Ben Shahebar. I'm the founder of a new soccer shoe brand called 11, and I'm based in Washington, D.C.

Speaker 13 I grew up in a household that was really all about soccer. I have two older brothers.
They all played soccer. My dad was our coach.
My mom is from Manchester, England.

Speaker 13 So we grew up watching Manchester United play. So I think soccer has just always been around me.

Speaker 13 And then I've always also enjoyed building physical products and building a soccer shoe brand really was combining those two passions of soccer and engineering.

Speaker 13 You know, Nike, Adidas, and Puma have certainly dominated the market for a really long time.

Speaker 13 But we're seeing in other spaces like running or trail running or cycling where there are a number of indie or startup brands that are really starting to break through.

Speaker 13 and there really hasn't been a brand in soccer. And so I really think there's a big opportunity to do this for that market.

Speaker 13 One of the biggest learnings of starting the shoe company has really been about, I guess, building the physical product itself.

Speaker 13 You know, we spent the first couple months really on the digital design, but then you have to take that design, however detailed it is, and you have to actually make it in real life.

Speaker 13 And that translation step has really been the hardest, the most tedious, also fulfilling part of it. Our first sample that we got, I got the first pictures of it on Thanksgiving Day and it was awful.

Speaker 13 Before we got our first sample, we had provided to the factory very detailed, they're called tech packs, but it's essentially a blueprint of this is what the shoe should look like.

Speaker 13 And when we got the first samples back, you know, the shape of the shoe was wrong. A lot of those construction details were wrong.

Speaker 4 And I remember being like, Can I actually do this?

Speaker 13 Am I actually going to be able to make the shoe that I would want to wear? And

Speaker 13 what we really had to do is first we pushed back and said, Hey, here are all the things that you need to do.

Speaker 13 And when it was clear that they didn't want to put in that effort, we ended up switching factories. And we've made a ton of progress since, and it's all worked out.

Speaker 5 2025 is upon us.

Speaker 13 Our goal is to be launched this summer, so probably July or August, and then really get as many players as possible exposed to our product through a lot of in-person demos at tournaments and other events in the lead up to the World Cup, which I think is going to be huge in 2026 for our brand.

Speaker 5 Ben Shahabar, founder of the Soccer Startup 11.

Speaker 5 Manchester United shares, by the way, it has publicly traded ticker symbol M-A-N-U Manu off 17% the past six months, which is, coincidentally, perhaps or not, when the Premier League season started.

Speaker 5 Might have something to do with Manchester United sitting 14th in a 20-team league.

Speaker 5 This final note on the way out today. Should you be in need of 1,779,349 square feet of office space in the nation's capital, Elon Musk and his operatives have just what you're looking for.
The J.

Speaker 5 Edgar Hoover Building, the, I guess, soon-to-be former headquarters of the FBI, is on the General Services Administration's disposal list. Here, I quote the GSA.

Speaker 5 We are identifying buildings and facilities that are not core to government operations.

Speaker 5 Our digital and on-demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Manji, Dylan Netanen, Jenna Wynne, Olga Oxman, Ellen Roffes, Virginia K. Smith, and Tony Wagner.

Speaker 5 Francesca Levy is the Executive Director of Digital and On Demand. I'm Kyle Rizdahl.
We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 6 This is APM.

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