Election Day 2025: Eyes on Jersey & NYC | 11.4.25

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Speaker 2 Election Day is here with pivotal races that will determine the direction of several cities and states.

Speaker 4 College-educated voters have moved somewhat towards Republicans and non-college a little bit away from Republicans.

Speaker 5 We look at the final polling and what's on the line for each party.

Speaker 2 I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire executive editor John Bickley. It's Tuesday, November 4th, and this is Morning Wire.

Speaker 5 New Jersey's race for governor tightened in the final weeks. We walked through the clashing stances of the two candidates.

Speaker 6 I'm declaring a state of emergency on day one.

Speaker 6 Freezing utility rate hikes.

Speaker 7 When I'm governor, we will not be a sanctuary state. I'm reversing that policy on day one.

Speaker 2 And Zoran Mamdani comes into the day with the electoral wind in his sails. But where will his agenda lead America's biggest city?

Speaker 8 Together, New York, we're going to freeze the

Speaker 8 together, New York, we're going to make buses fast and

Speaker 5 thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned.
We have the news you need to know.

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Speaker 5 It's election day as millions of voters in several states will make their voices heard.

Speaker 2 Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips has more on these closely watched races. Hey, Cabot, happy Election Day.
Same to you, Georgia.

Speaker 2 So, Megan and Amanda are going to drill down into two of these races, but I want to start with you with a general overview of what we're looking at this election day. What are we expecting to see?

Speaker 10 Well, to begin, this could well be a rough night for the GOP. The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly when it comes to off-year elections.

Speaker 10 And the biggest races this year are in blue states and blue cities. But conservatives are still hopeful that they can pull off at least one or two upsets, hopefully.

Speaker 10 And it looks like their best shot is in New Jersey. That is where Republican Jack Chitterelli has stormed back from a 20-point deficit to give Democrat Mikey Sherrill a real run for her money.

Speaker 10 The latest polling out of the state has him within the margin of error. That's a place, again, where Donald Trump got within six points last year.
So he's looking to continue that GOP momentum.

Speaker 10 But if Chitterelli is going to win today, he's going to have to have enormous turnout from his base and also win the majority of independents, likely by around seven, eight, 10 plus points.

Speaker 10 Remember, New Jersey has nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Speaker 10 And based on the latest data right now, Democrats have already cast about 220,000 more mail-in ballots than Republicans. So Chitterelli is already digging out of a significant hole.

Speaker 10 That's where the turnout on election day comes in. This week, Democrats brought in former President Barack Obama to make the closing pitch to New Jersey voters on behalf of Mikey Sherrill.

Speaker 10 And he spent most of the speech talking about Chitterelli, though he didn't use his name. He tried to tie him to Donald Trump.

Speaker 10 Now, for his part, Chitterelli did not seem too worried by those accusations. Have a listen on the trail this week.

Speaker 11 Obama said you're sucking up to Trump. Pushes

Speaker 11 President Obama? Is that President who? Yes, exactly.

Speaker 2 So, Democrats looking for a boost from President Obama in New Jersey, but how are things looking for them in Virginia?

Speaker 10 Yeah, this is the race where Democrats are viewing it as a safer bet, with their nominee Abigail Spanberger, holding about a 10-point lead over the Republican Winsom Earl Sears.

Speaker 10 Republicans were hopeful that the texting scandal involving AG nominee Jay Jones, which we've talked about a lot on the show, would drag Spanberger down.

Speaker 10 But despite her refusal to retract her endorsement of Jones, she is holding steady. For more on the Virginia race, I spoke with Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster who founded Signal Polling.

Speaker 10 Here's what he had to say about what it's going to take for Winsom Sears to pull off this GOP upset.

Speaker 4 The southwest, which is the more rural Republican parts, have to come out in droves equaling or going beyond what they did for Donald Trump.

Speaker 4 She has to hold her own in what's called the Hampton Roads area, which is the Tidewater, Virginia Beach, Norfolk area in the southeast of the state.

Speaker 4 And the election day turnout in the suburbs and urban areas of the state have to be pretty darn low. It's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place for Winsom Sears to win.

Speaker 2 Now, one more topic before you go. Prop 50 in California, that's been pretty controversial.
Where do things stand there?

Speaker 10 So, just for context, Prop 50 is known as the Election Rigging Response Act.

Speaker 10 It was proposed by California Governor Gavin Newsom, and it would suspend the state's existing congressional map and then allow Democrats to redraw the districts along partisan lines, essentially allowing them to add up to five new Democratic seats.

Speaker 10 That measure has drawn outrage from Republicans around the country. For their part, Democrats claim that it's a response to similar legislation in states like Texas.

Speaker 10 But regardless, it looks almost certain to pass tonight and likely by an overwhelming majority. That could have major ramifications in a very closely divided Congress back in D.C.

Speaker 2 Well, a lot of states are going to have new maps by 2026, so very interesting to see how that goes. Cabot, thanks for reporting.

Speaker 12 Absolutely.

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Speaker 2 New Jersey residents hit the polls today to elect their next governor.

Speaker 2 The increasingly close race pits Democrat Mikey Sherrill against Republican Jack Chitterelli, who's hoping to flip the Garden State red.

Speaker 5 Here with Morris Daily Wire reporter Amanda Presta Giacomo hey Amanda. So we've been covering this increasingly tight race.
We just aired our interview with Chitterelli this weekend.

Speaker 5 In fact, Cabot has highlighted the numbers. First, why is this race so important on a national level?

Speaker 12 Yeah, well, first of all, like you said, John, it really is razor thin. Most polls are within the margin of error.
The important context here is that New Jersey is considered a blue state.

Speaker 12 Residents have voted for the Democrat presidential candidate in every election since 1992.

Speaker 12 The outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, he's a Democrat, and Mikey Sherrill, up until recently, she had a very substantial lead over Chitterelli.

Speaker 12 Now, as for this election, more than a million New Jersey residents have already voted, but Republicans do tend to show up right on Election Day.

Speaker 12 A beautiful weather forecast as far as November New Jerseys go for today in New Jersey. So, you know, we'll see if this upset is in the cards for Chitterelli.

Speaker 5 Now, we've seen some big names, the biggest, in fact, play roles in this race. Former President Obama and President Trump have had some influence here.
Tell us about that.

Speaker 12 Yeah, I mean, you know, Democrats are concerned about a race when they call in Obama. And as has been the trend of Cheryl's campaign, Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump.
Here's Obama.

Speaker 14 It's hard to know where to start

Speaker 14 because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch

Speaker 14 of lawlessness and carelessness and mean-spiritedness

Speaker 14 and just plain old craziness.

Speaker 5 Definitely a lot of Trump focus, like you said there for sure, unsurprisingly. Now, how has Trump factored into Chitterelli's campaigning?

Speaker 12 Yeah, the president has enthusiastically endorsed Chitterelli, calling him a great candidate who's all in on the MAGA agenda.

Speaker 12 You know, as for Chitterelli, he hasn't necessarily shied away from that, but there has been some nuance in his positions because he's campaigning in New Jersey and not Florida.

Speaker 12 So for example, he said that he will repeal the broad sanctuary policy on illegal immigration on day one, but he's also indicated that whatever it is the local mayor and police chief decide to do to keep their communities safe, he'll be on board with that.

Speaker 5 So he's maintaining some, if not distance, then autonomy there. Outside of the national politics, what are the main issues driving this election on a state level, locally?

Speaker 12 Yeah, I mean, economic issues are top of mind for New Jersey residents.

Speaker 12 Scott Pressler, who's known for his boots on the ground efforts, he's in New Jersey now, and he's gained national attention for helping flip Pennsylvania for Trump in 2024.

Speaker 12 He told the Daily Wire that this race is 100% in play, and he called this an economic election.

Speaker 12 Pressler said that New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes in particular.

Speaker 12 And it's not surprising that Chitterelli has really focused in on those issues and criticized Democrats for their energy policies in particular.

Speaker 12 Cultural issues and parental rights, that's also playing a factor here.

Speaker 12 Cheryl did take some heat for saying that she'd mandate an LGBTQ curriculum in public schools and for suggesting that parents don't have a right to opt out of that.

Speaker 12 She's also battling some negative press about a reported $7 million that she made from stock trades while in Congress. She was actually fined for violating the Stock Act, for example.

Speaker 12 There's also a cheating scandal from her Naval Academy days that happened in 1994.

Speaker 12 Now, all of these issues matter to New Jersey residents, but I will say, you know, hitting the pavement and good old-fashioned retail politics, that does seem to be helping Chitterelli.

Speaker 12 There was actually a really nice moment yesterday where at one of these stops, Chitterelli's son, who's serving in the U.S. military, he came home from Kuwait to surprise his dad.

Speaker 12 A NewJersey.com columnist said that he wouldn't be surprised if Chittorelli does pull off this upset.

Speaker 12 He said that the Republican has been keeping a frantic schedule that makes, quote, the energizer bunny look like a sloth on qualutes. So could be another factor.

Speaker 5 Definitely some promising signs for the Republican, but again, it's very hard to reverse electoral trends in a state. So we'll see tonight.
Amira, thanks for reporting.

Speaker 3 You're welcome.

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Speaker 5 Polls are open this morning in New York City, and Zoram Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, appears poised to win the mayoral race.

Speaker 2 Here to discuss is Daily Wire culture reporter Megan Basham. So Megan, just to start, how likely is it that Momdani wins today?

Speaker 3 Well, you know, Georgia, I would say if he doesn't, it's going to be an upset of pretty epic proportions.

Speaker 3 So just to break down a few of the polling numbers that we're seeing right now, most of the major polling outfits are showing that his margins range from anywhere from 10 points to 25 points in his favor.

Speaker 3 He's winning between 44 44 and 50% support compared to Cuomo, who's only getting around 25 to 34% support, and Republican Curtis Slewa, who's pulling about 15 to 21%.

Speaker 3 So Daily Wire reporter Recca Stoll was out on the ground in New York, and here's what she's seeing.

Speaker 17 Man Dami obviously has a really fun and great presence online.

Speaker 17 If I was in New York, I'd vote for him.

Speaker 18 I think he has some special interest groups that he will give things to, and then government grocery stores with long lines, probably no food, and a lot of promises that won't actually help people.

Speaker 18 As far as free rent goes, somebody is paying for that rent. There's nothing that's free in reality.

Speaker 3 Now, that said, a last minute poll from Atlas Intel does show the race tightening over what some of these other major polling outfits are showing.

Speaker 3 So they're giving Mom Dani only a 6.6% lead over Cuomo, but it's still a lead, and we're seeing that reflected in the betting markets.

Speaker 3 Right now, Polymarket has Mom Donnie's likelihood of winning at about 95%.

Speaker 3 And that's especially being driven by those young voters under 35. So I think, Georgia, if these numbers hold, we're looking at the first openly socialist mayor of New York City.

Speaker 2 Is this a harbinger for the Democratic Party at large, or is New York kind of a unique case?

Speaker 3 Well, I think it's definitely going to have some national impact.

Speaker 3 So one of the things we can look at here is the fact that the younger generation is much more open to socialism than older voters have been in the past.

Speaker 3 So according to a recent survey, only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism. And that's a massive 23-point drop since 2010.
So you can see a significant shift there.

Speaker 3 So it's not surprising then that Mamdani is having some success running on things like rent freezing, free city buses, free childcare, and even government-owned grocery stores with fixed prices.

Speaker 3 And then the other thing I think we can take from this is the split that we're seeing between foreign-born voters and American-born voters.

Speaker 3 So the bulk of Mamadani's support is coming from that foreign-born voting base. But for American-born New York voters, Cuomo actually holds the lead by eight points over Momdani.

Speaker 3 And it's also worth noting that Momdani would be New York's first Muslim mayor, and his positions on Israel have concerned a lot of Jewish Americans.

Speaker 3 He's done things like refuse to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He's also refused to condemn slogans like globalize the intifada.

Speaker 19 Do you condemn that phrase, globalize the intifada?

Speaker 20 That's not language that I use.

Speaker 20 The language that I use and the language that I will continue to use to lead this city is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights.

Speaker 3 So you are hearing a lot of concern that he represents a growing acceptance of anti-Semitism on the political left.

Speaker 2 Now, despite all of that success with young voters and perhaps foreign-born voters, it's worth noting there's a lot of reluctance from the party's top leaders to endorse Mom Dani.

Speaker 2 There's people like AOC and Bernie Sanders who have, but aside from them, we've seen pretty tepid endorsements at best from, I think, Hakeem Jeffries was the most recent.

Speaker 2 How's the party going to respond to this win, do you think?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I think that brings up a great point. They're obviously trying to handle him very carefully.
They want that momentum. They want that youth vote.

Speaker 3 And in respect to that, it's not surprising then that you are seeing the easily hard left members of the democratic party like you said your aocs your bernie sanders your elizabeth warrens coming out in support of him but the other major figureheads are treading very carefully barack obama for instance did call him and offer some support he offered to be a sounding board but he didn't actually endorse mom dhani and when you look at hakeem jeffries that endorsement only came at the very last minute.

Speaker 3 And when he was directly asked after that, if he thinks that Mom Donnie represents the new face of the Democratic Party, he said, no, he doesn't think that he does.

Speaker 3 And you can also kind of see the difficult dance they're having to do with Governor Kathy Hochul. She appeared at an event with Mom Donnie.

Speaker 3 And when the crowd was chanting, tax the rich, she responded, I hear you. But later, she denied that she understood what they were saying.

Speaker 3 And so she said that she would not back raising taxes on the richest New Yorkers because they're crucial to the tax base.

Speaker 19 One and a half percent of New Yorkers cover about a third of our budget. That's enormous.
I'm concerned about outmigration of people who are the ones who are supporting our budget.

Speaker 19 I cannot make up for that with middle-class tax increases.

Speaker 2 Well, Imam Donnie win would seem to solidify a very hard left turn for the party, at least in the eyes of voters, if not some of those top party brass. Megan, thanks for reporting.

Speaker 3 Yep, my pleasure.

Speaker 5 Thanks for waking up with us. And for those listening to the show, you can also also watch it free on Daily Wire Plus.
We'll be back this evening with more news you need to know.

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