Confessions of a No. 1 Pick Gone Bust, with Alex Smith

Welcome to Pablo Torre Finds Out.

I am Pablo Torre, and today we're going to find out what this sound is.

You're alone.

Nobody knows what that's like.

Right after this ad.

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The club of number one overall picks.

Do you remember actually your statistics from 2005 with the Niners?

I cannot get the numbers one and 11 out of my head, which 11, you know, obviously the number that I wore for most of my career.

But one touchdown, 11 interceptions is just something that I will never forget.

Third and seven and perhaps out of field goal range unless down the middle, intercepted, picked off by Cato June again.

And June out to the 45-yard line as he has a twin picks against young Alex Smith.

Your adjusted net yards per attempt

1.11.

It was that high.

You had a positive adjusted net yards per attempt but your value approximately according to pro football reference and this does not really happen very often for that rookie year in san francisco number one overall pick was minus three it had to be negative yeah yeah yeah yeah like i was well below any average replacement

okay so negativity i want to talk to you about negativity and also replacement because my old friend alex smith the former number one overall pick in the 05 NFL draft taken by the San Francisco 49ers,

is intimately familiar with this concept.

Alex will go on to have one of the most impressive 14-year careers in NFL history, by the way, in terms of not just onfield success, but also injuries overcome and players mentored, as we'll discuss.

He has been both the upstart and also the incumbent.

The new guy and also the old guy that Patrick Mahomes, for instance, in Kansas City would ultimately replace.

But Alex Smith arrived in the league with the highest possible expectations,

and he was horrible.

Which is also how America has been describing Caleb Williams, the would-be rookie savior of the Bears and allegedly the next Patrick Mahomes, and also Bryce Young, the second-year savior for the Panthers, who lost his job last week and then had to watch his former backup cruise to Carolina's first win.

And also, it describes Trevor Lawrence at this point, selected first in 2021 by the Jaguars, who currently looks like he is in hell.

All three quarterbacks, like Alex, are members of the number one overall pick club.

All three, simultaneously struggling right now, are the story of this season thus far.

And so what I wanted to find out today is the stuff that this club of would-be leaders cannot say publicly while they're going through it.

What I wanted to find out is what it's really like when the NFL eats its yacht.

How did you deal, Alex, with the idea that maybe you were going to be a bust?

I mean, honestly, I tried to pretend like it didn't bother me.

I tried to pretend that I was tough enough, Pablo.

You're a football player.

You can just get through this on your own.

I didn't talk about it.

I just tried to present a strong, calm, cool, collected, because again, as the quarterback and the face, like you just said, the face of these organizations, like that's what you've been brought up in the football world to present, to strength.

And I had never dealt with expectations like that in my life.

Aaron Rodgers, why is Alex Smith the right guy to go number one?

Well, no question.

He was a guy.

And the delta between Alex Smith and the other quarterbacks to me, that's correct, Saul, was significant.

And I look at him and I see a polished college quarterback that projects well the National Football League.

And as a number one pick, it's there.

You know, I remember the cautionary tales of the bus growing up.

You know, listen, I grew up in San Diego.

I very much remember Ryan Leaf getting drafted, that draft with Peyton Manning.

And it haunts you.

It consumes you, Pablo.

And it festered and it got worse and worse and worse to the point where, honestly, there probably wasn't a second of my day that

I didn't feel the weight of it.

The notion of self-doubt.

That wait a minute, maybe the story I tell myself about myself is not actually the story of my life.

Yep.

When you're in a locker room, when you're a person in the world seeing headlines and the TV is saying all this stuff, and now, of course, with the internet, it's even more so.

Can you give me a sense of a glimpse into what that looked like, what you were hearing, what you were actually sort of trying to ignore?

I had one college scholarship.

Two and a half years earlier, I had one college scholarship and then, you know, jumped ahead two and a half years and I was the number one pick in the draft.

And there was definitely a part of me.

Again, to the San Francisco 49ers, it's Joe Montana, Steve Young.

And then, to your point, though, even embedded in that was this idea of the number one pick.

And I mentioned Peyton Manning because he is like the poster child

of the success story of the number one pick.

That's what every organization holds up: as like, we hope that this is what it'll be.

Huge imposter syndrome, Pablo.

Like, how long until they find out they made a mistake, right?

Like, how long?

Seriously, questioned if I was good enough.

Felt like I had to be perfect perfect was probably the biggest thing that I became consumed with fear to make like any mistake, any mistake.

Like I just tried to be perfect.

And so I walked around on eggshells.

I took the field on eggshells,

just consumed with fear and self-doubt.

And then again, my mind, though, actually wasn't ever really even present.

I completely like self-sabotaged.

I was in like a space mountain, you know, like wondering what they're going to write about me in the paper.

You know, I'll never forget.

You You go through the combine, you're doing these visits, the draft comes.

I find myself in the green room wearing this ridiculous suit.

What the hell is happening?

I remember this suit.

You know, like I couldn't even, what the hell is happening?

Then all of a sudden, the commissioner walks out and says my name first.

You hold up the jersey, you take picks.

Like all of a sudden, I'm going to the airport, Pablo, and I'm flying across the country to San Francisco.

I was in a mini camp a week later as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, right?

Like, you got to learn a playbook.

Like, again, like, I thought I was going to have this chance to exhale, and you don't.

And I'll never forget that first minicam.

I line up in warm-up lines, right?

Like, I've been doing this my whole career, and I line up in warmup lines, and I'm all the way over,

just for everybody to visualize, I'm all the way over on the furthest side of the right.

So I'm the line closest to the sideline.

And there are

90 reporters and photographers, Pablo, taking pictures of me, watching me stretch.

Man.

Stretch.

And I remember just like, like claustrophobic.

I mean, if that makes any sense.

Like it just, you overwhelmed me.

I had never experienced that.

I came from Utah.

Like I could walk around campus and not get recognized.

And now like there's a hundred photographers and reporters like analyzing my half stretch, you know, like whatever the hell.

Like it was ridiculous.

There is a, again, as always, a cruel poetry in the idea of you trying to stretch, loosen up.

And of course, the opposite is happening.

You are tensing up.

You are coiling inside of yourself and you're describing something that I always think about when I watch what I presume from afar to be the armchair psychological diagnosis of terror when I watch Bryce Young.

And I'm thinking to myself, if I'm him, I'm waking up in the morning on a Sunday and I am

dreading, dreading going to work.

And I'm curious if you felt that actually in those terms.

Sundays were just like miserable, Pablo, miserable.

And so when you play once a week,

you really live by like the day of the week.

And as you got closer to Sunday, that like anxiety crank just cranked up tighter and tighter.

And it just came.

So like on Monday, you were, even though you probably just got your ass kicked the day before, like there was like a sigh of relief because you're like, I don't have to take the field again.

And then like Tuesday, and it would just go.

And as you got to Thursday and Friday, that thing would just be cranking.

And Saturday's walkthrough, pregame walkthrough or travel.

And then Sunday pregame was when it was absolutely maxed out.

Like I'll never forget sitting on my stool at my locker, you know, the hours leading up to kickoff.

And

I was actually not even at that stool, Pablo.

Like, again, like, just in outer space, my head just consumed with self-doubt.

Like, God, what if I throw an interception?

What if I throw an incompletion?

What if they start booing me in the stadium?

I want to jump in on that.

The stadium, the crowd, hearing booze.

I remember watching you, and I remember hearing them chanting for your backup to play.

David Carr, right?

Yeah, 70,000 people chanting the backup's name.

I mean, just what a person is left with as they are disassociating from their physical form and hearing

a mass of people who are supposed to love you, by the way.

What do you actually want in that moment more than anything?

Oh, I want them to like me.

I want validation, Pablo.

All I wanted, and at the crux of all of this, is just to prove everybody that I was worth it.

Yeah.

That I was worth the number one pick.

And I want so badly to win for them.

Yes.

No.

And I'm holding on so tight that like, I've become my own worst enemy, actually.

You know, and I would look forward to your point, like of the games.

I so used to look forward to away games, Pablo.

I like, it was like, it was amazing.

Like my rookie year, my first few years, like away games were, oh, I was like, oh, yes, we're on the road, which is insane as a quarterback.

Now you got to deal with crowd noise and 70,000 people cheering against, you know, like literally making noise.

You can't even use a snap count.

Like, that's insane to say in hindsight, like for me, because that's just not the way it should be but i i several years like that like i looked forward to road trips right i just i felt like it eased the pressure just a little bit and so when you watch bryce young in the present tense a guy who has actually in real time been benched and replaced by a capable backup and andy dalton who just by the way became the first guy all season to throw for three touchdowns and hit 300 yards Yeah, but like this is the idea.

Like I heard this.

Dave Canalis came out and said when he, when he made this, he's like, hey, well, and ultimately it just kind of lands on my shoulders to be able to make the best decision for our group

to give us our chance, our best chance to win this week.

And we focused.

And he gave you the best chance to win all last year.

Like, just like I should not have been playing my, like, that's not the point.

Like, Peyton Manning didn't give the Colts the best chance to win his rookie year.

He threw 28 interceptions.

He said an NFL record.

Like, that's not the point.

That once you had committed yourself to that path, this whole like baptism by fire like and then here in carolina you pull the rug out two weeks in which i have a lot of i have a lot of emotions on this whole thing but like

having watched bryce's tape and this is it gets at the core of even what i went through yes

you can develop bad habits this idea that you're just going to play through dysfunction i is not very sane right like it's not logical like you go out there as a quarterback you're so dependent on everything around you not just the 10 guys in the huddle but defense and special teams and just to have a chance to show what you can do, right?

Like that, that just gives you, that's just the starting line.

You can go out there and in the midst of this dysfunction, which is what the Panthers are, dysfunctional, right?

That you can develop bad habits.

You can lose confidence.

You can become rattled, right?

The pressure and anxiety that certainly comes with the expectations of being the number one pick can consume you.

And I felt like that's what I saw in Bryce this year.

And it so much reminded me of myself.

And so actually maybe him getting to finally sit back and watch a guy like Andy, who, by the way, this is a like Pro Bowl quarterback.

He's taking his team to playoffs.

Like, this guy can play at a high level.

And he showed on Sunday.

But maybe that actually is the best thing for Bryce, but that still doesn't let this organization off the hook for like what they did.

Right.

The lack of a plan.

And this was really, I think, what I felt like.

When I was going through it,

you're alone.

Nobody knows what that's like.

And the small world of like top pick quarterbacks, it is a small world.

And I remember how alone I felt.

And then watching Bryce,

how bad I feel for him.

And

dude, what he's trying to do is so freaking hard.

It's so hard, right?

Like turn this organization around, play as a young rookie quarterback.

Here he's going, just heading into a second year.

Like, it is so hard.

And I think you lose sight of that sometimes when you're in it.

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You had how many offensive coordinators in seven years?

I had seven in seven.

So Bryce Young is on pace to break your record potentially in terms of just like coaches out, GMs out, the revolving door of dysfunction leading to a lack of consistency when it comes to who is

helping me actually.

This is what's crazy.

He's had three head coaches in a year, right?

Multiple play callers.

I think he's had three play callers in a year.

We mentioned my rookie season, one of the worst rookie seasons in the history of football.

Easily.

Agreed.

Pablo, I played eight years for the Niners.

Eight years.

That's

okay.

The patience that they allowed me to grow through.

I was not good for several years.

Not good.

And the patience that they showed to let me grow and develop compared to what Bryce is going through.

Like this is, this has never happened before.

We've never seen this lack of, lack of support for it for a number one overall pick and a guy they traded up for.

Well, that's the other thing.

They didn't just walk into the number one pick.

They traded up for this.

Which is, again, this is the other thing, right?

The rumors now, and again, man, if you're a number one overall pick and you're hearing, okay, we believe in this guy, already you're thinking, well, are they believing in me publicly because they're trying to goose my trade value so they can charge someone else more because they're just lying now?

I just imagine that you're living inside a hall of mirrors and every reflection of yourself looks

ugly.

That's what I imagine Bryce Young's life right now.

And you can't see out, you just can't even see the light of day, right?

Like there is no end of the tunnel.

You, this season just started.

Like, he's, I mean, you know, I, I, I only pray

that,

you know, listen, two guys that were just in that building that they didn't think were good enough were Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, right?

And the Carolina Panthers organization said, nah, these guys aren't good enough.

Meanwhile, you know, Baker Mayfield's kicking their ass in the division currently.

Sam Darnold, he was good enough for Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O'Connell.

He seems to be lighting up the scoreboard now, you know, like Minnesota.

This organization obviously

is struggling to identify and keep talent.

And that's an understatement.

You know, Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and Brian Burns all sent packing.

These guys are franchise players that they've just like, it was like a yard sale sign, you know?

Well, discount shopping.

When Andy Dalton gets in there and is revelatory to people on the outside who have been wondering, okay, is this a Bryce problem?

Is this a Panthers problem?

He's helping them, us on the outside, isolate the variable.

It looks like Bryce, right, has great culpability when it comes to, okay,

if Andy can do it, why can't you?

If you are Bryce, though, what are you thinking as you're watching Andy Dalton immediately go in there?

I hope that Bryce was able to analyze and watch Andy operate, right?

Like, and there is no, you could not put a value on the up close front row view to watch Andy prepare all week, right?

In the in the meeting rooms with coaches,

before and after meetings as he preps, in the, in the weight room, getting ready, how he deals with the receivers.

Like there are a thousand things that Bryce will get an up close view to watch Andy do.

And Andy's been doing this for 14 years.

Okay.

He is like the vast experience that he and knowledge that he has accumulated that now Bryce will get to watch that.

Right.

And even though that it's still not a great situation, but watch Andy go out and play fast and get rid of the ball and continue to do the little things that added up to the first 300-yard, three touchdown performance of of the season and this was like what was so ridiculous last year like this whole idea of like andy was sitting there all the last year yeah what was the rush like why you traded up to get bryce why wouldn't you as an organization do everything in your power to ensure that when bryce takes the field he has the best chance of success you have made this huge investment for your company, for your team, and you've literally just like sabotaged him.

There is no plan in place to like, how are we going to big-term vision, long-term vision, how are we going to ensure success?

And they're impatient and they just want to see the shiny new toy, right?

And they, they know it puts butts in the seats.

And so they're like, let's just get them out there, right?

And they, they, they can't stay patient.

They can't stick to their guns.

And the problem is, you have guys like Peyton and C.J.

Stroud that mess it up for everybody.

Yes.

Right.

Like C.J.

Stroud just had the greatest rookie season ever playing right away.

And so, probably the truth is that like there isn't one size fits all.

Like, that's just the truth.

Like, every situation that you walk into is different, right?

Like, the supports that are in place, how good's the team.

So, when you, when you're factoring risk here, you've taken this pick.

Do we let's play them early?

Let's throw them out there and hope that they work their way through it.

And let's hope they're CJ Stroud and hope that they're, you know, Peyton Manning.

And obviously, we've seen how many times that's happened in history, not many.

Or, you know, we let them sit and wait and watch.

Again, I don't think that I think that this, the NFL has undervalued the veteran quarterback, that there are guys out there that can still play winning football.

And let's let them be the bridge.

Because if you throw them out there more often than not,

they're going to have a negative war like I did.

You know, like it's going to be so bad.

I hope, you know, flipping again to this year, like at the Patriots, Jacoby Brissette is a good quarterback.

Let him go out and play.

That team is not ready.

Again, new head coach, lots of new things going on.

Offensive line isn't very good.

Like, let Jacoby go out there and play.

Let Drake May sit and watch.

I hope that Drod Mayo can stay patient and stick to this plan.

And

if the losses mount, can still stay strong to this.

I hope.

It is a remarkable thing.

You just don't hear many athletes, current or former, say, I wish I had been benched.

The lack of a plan and vision and long-term vision is so absurd when you think about how big, like these are billion-dollar organizations.

Multi-billion.

They got David Tepper, who's this hedge fund, one of the best hedge fund managers of all time, right?

This guy is really smart.

And they've just absolutely like this now is put this up on the wall is what not to do.

It's right.

Like you've got Peyton Manning on one hand and you got this one on the other.

Yes, two different models for

pain tolerance, for risk tolerance.

Look, I want to zoom out actually on Carolina here because it's not just this one case study.

The larger picture of starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season as of week one,

it was 27.6.

That's the average age of the NFL starting quarterback.

That's the youngest it has been since 1957.

Right?

In 2017, it was over 30 years old.

There were as many week one starters with only one to two years experience as with nine plus years of experience.

Your sport, as much as we are decrying

this trend line, is leaning ever more into throw him out there, it seems.

Did we not just watch what Tom Brady was still able to do late in his career?

There's such power in the veteran quarterback and just in what they've seen, right?

Like to go out and operate, so much of playing quarterback is decision-making, right?

Like beyond the physical attributes.

It is these little, incalculable, unmeasurable little things that add up.

And this is obviously to a much larger concept of kind of mentorship, but like you go look at Patrick's path, right?

You go look at like Jordan Loves and Aaron Rodgers path.

And all of those cases, could they have started earlier?

Sure.

Yeah, but

that's because of you, buddy.

Hold on.

Let's not abstract this.

That's because you were ahead of Patrick Mahoves.

Yes, but like my point, and it's hard when i was in it right like no one no one you don't want to get your the replacement you're you know they draft your replacement and he's sitting there uh right like that's not like something you wish for in the moment but from a football fan if you are a chiefs fan and you or if you like how about just an operational you know you look at like the the brilliance of it from a big picture

Like, yeah, like, hey, draft him.

I was in my 13th year at that point.

I had my career year by far.

I mean, I led the NFL in a couple of categories, like was in the MVP conversation conversation by the end of the season.

And the brilliance of the, again, Patrick got to see an up close view of it for an entire year.

Everything that I had accumulated, all the knowledge, the routine, like the operational playbook of playing quarterback, like Patrick got the up close view and it's like, hey, take what you want, take what works for you, and then send me on my way.

And oh, yeah, get some draft picks in return, right?

Like it's brilliant.

It's brilliant.

And then, oh, by the way, Patrick's first, like his first start the following season, I think he threw six touchdowns.

Like, like, you've just ensured, again, you made, you traded up to get him with the 10th pick.

You want to do everything in your power to ensure that it works, that he has a chance at success.

And that's part of this.

And like, it just, it, it seems so obvious from the outside looking in, and yet it's still so rare.

Yeah.

Look, it was not lost on me as I was watching the Super Bowl this year.

I'm watching Patrick Mahomes win his third Super Bowl, his third Super Bowl MVP.

And he goes up to the podium behind this microphone, the biggest television show in America, and he says, I want to thank Alex Smith.

I attribute a lot of my early success to Alex.

I mean, the way he was able to be a pro every single day and the way he was able to go about not only being a great football player, but a great human being,

it showed me a ton.

I mean, I learned a lot about how to read coverages and blitzes from him.

He gave me a blueprint of how to go about a week and preparing yourself.

And it showed me how to have success at an early point in my career that I don't think I would have got anywhere else.

He credits you for doing the thing that you did not receive which is it seems uh

you helped him feel less alone

pablo the two quarterbacks when i made my first start for the niners the two quarterbacks had a combined one start the two other qbs in the room so there were three of us one start they were a second year and third year player who had one start and i will never forget

after practice, sitting in the film room watching film by myself and having no idea what I was doing.

i i put in the hours pablo i was working hard i was trying hard like i would you know like i'd heard stories of again payton and these guys that like just watched so much film and i'd be in there too watching film and had absolutely no idea what i was doing like no idea what i was looking at what i should be looking at how to do it like none and i just i i stumbled for years doing this and and and slowly learned as i went and made mistakes but it was i like again, it was five, six years in the making, just inconsistency and crappy play and mistakes.

And so, uh,

fast forward to Patrick, again, I had been obviously an early pick.

And here's Patrick had been an early pick.

And like, I'm very well remembered what I went through.

And again, that, that feeling of being alone.

And

that, yeah, I didn't wish that on anyone.

And again, Patrick and I hit it off, like, you know, respect, respect, give respect, get respect.

And like, he and I became fast friends.

And and, uh, yeah, as much as he was the guy that's going to take my job, but like, you don't wish that on him, you know?

It makes me think, though, that when you are an NFL team trying to copy, again, copycat what the best teams are doing, I get why the Bears went and got Caleb Williams with the number one overall pick.

He is, of course.

you know, the most visually at least like Patrick among prospects that I can recall.

Although there are some imitators also in college, just for the record here, we're also just trying to be like him.

A couple.

A couple, a little startling, a little weird.

Dylan Riola, just know that we see you and it's obvious.

But

Caleb Williams,

you know, his thing in college was accuracy.

That was like the one thing nobody ever, I mean, it was a bunch of things, but nobody ever questioned how precise he was on top of his ability to overextend plays,

you know, which was fun more than anything.

But now, okay, he goes from super accurate to inaccurate through three weeks.

And I'm just wondering,

is that a nerves thing?

Is that a feat thing?

What do you diagnose when it comes to a number one overall pick who is struggling to do that?

You could take his first start, Pablo, and just burn the tape.

Like it's your first start.

Mine was a blur.

You hope to get through it and forget it.

You know, somehow they won that football game, which great.

I think there's a good player in there.

Like he's got it and that he's showing glimpses.

And I think you just got to continue to give him time.

There's been no running game to speak of in Chicago at all.

It's, it's been completely on his shoulders.

Young offensive line as well.

So like it's a work in progress, bunch of new faces.

He's running a different system for the first time.

Like it just takes time.

And as impatient as we all are and the media doesn't help right like with this,

they need to be patient.

For me, just even in these three weeks, I feel like I have seen progression from him.

When you were going through it it and there were people that you wanted to measure yourself against, not historically, but just like your sort of contemporaries, it does occur to me that I plan to talk to you about how all these young quarterbacks are fundamentally in some form

all sorts of beds.

And out comes another quarterback who plays for another one of your former teams, Jaden Daniels.

And that dude has a day that makes you feel like

we made the right choice.

And all of this is small sample size theater but i am curious how much were you paying attention

to guys that you would be measured against while they were off and occasionally killing it

well listen you're talking to a guy that to this day uh will forever be tied to aaron rodgers right uh he and i um forever and so i get it i i totally get it And, you know, my first few years obviously were very different than his first few years in the league, but that's the reality, right?

And Bryce Young and C.J.

Stroud

will forever be tied together.

And this draft class as a whole, all these QBs that went in the first round, again, will all be lumped together as we track their progress and careers.

I think one of the unique things about this draft class were especially was Jaden and Bo Nicks.

Because of the change in college football with NIL.

and the transfer portal, that listen, when I, I was 20 when I got drafted, like my choices were to stay at Utah, you know, Urban had left for Florida or go pro and make money, right?

Like it was very, it was binary.

That's it.

Like these guys now, there's lots of choices.

In fact, if you're not going to be an early pick, like you probably make more money in college, right?

And you can, oh, by the way, you can transfer anywhere you want and play immediately and, you know, guarantee, go to a great place to have success.

And so what I'm getting at is just that Jaden and Bo Nix, these guys are five-year starters.

Five years.

Bo Nix has has played more football than anybody ever.

You know, Jaden's right there with him.

These guys have so much experience.

And I think it's made the college game better.

It's made quarterbacking in college, especially better.

Definitely.

Older guys that are more experienced.

And now when they come to the NFL, I think they are more pro-ready.

Like I watched Jaden watch, he's so cool and calm in the pocket.

Like he does not look like a rookie.

Oh, that's a good idea.

And I do think that has to come from.

And the blitz is coming, and he hits that, you know, that deep go ball.

Totally.

We've only got 10 guys on the field.

They're down and seven.

This one is launched for McLaurin.

He's got it.

Touchdown.

Well, even when you think about his progression in college, like Arizona State, again, he's starting as a young guy and playing.

And then, oh, by the way, well, I'll just transfer to LSU, which is like a mini NFL team, you know.

And then I'll go do this in the SEC.

And oh, wait, my style worked there.

I won the freaking Heisman Trophy.

And now I'm stepping up again.

So there's been this gradual step.

Like, it's not as much of the zero to 60, you know, for me, the going from the Mountain West Conference and playing Wyoming

to, you know, playing, you know, Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens.

Like, that just was very different.

So for Jaden, I feel like that experience that he possesses, the calmness in the pocket, like,

man,

it looks, it looks unbelievable.

It's why he's, you know, set records already.

I want to ask you, though, point blank: if Caleb Williams or Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence at this point, if they were to call you and say, hey, man,

what's the thing that I need to make sure that I do, whether it's any approach, any part of the approach of living this job, what do you think is being underrated still?

You know, Trevor is a little different.

I mean, he's signed his second contract.

I mean, he's one of the highest paid guys guys in the league.

And Pablo, with that, there was always a direct correlation for me.

It's like becoming the number one overall pick again.

The expectation is to play like it.

And,

you know, for me, if I, when, in my career, when I did sign a big contract, like my rookie one and also later was fortunate enough to sign, you know, another big contract, like expectations come with that.

Right.

Like, yeah, that's great.

Hooray.

We got, you know, like this is amazing, life-changing, you know, thing that happened.

But like, it, it mounts for you.

The pressure mounts.

Um, and so Trevor's kind of dealing with a whole nother animal.

And, and also the expectations for this team are no longer to like, hey, go seven and nine.

You know, they're there to make the playoffs and win playoff games and,

again, continue to elevate.

And so for them to be 0-3 and then just to not even be competitive,

you know, this last Monday night, like it, it, that, that's only going to increase.

Again, remember that, that, that, like, anxiety crank?

That, like, that's only getting jacked up here uh for them in that building um and it's going to mount and again that stress like how does it affect people how does it affect doug peterson and and trevor you cannot bury the self-doubt pablo like you it's there right you have to confront it like this is real this is hard it is tough and you have to meet it right you can't wallow in it either but you got to meet it in order to be able to move past it.

And anytime that anxiety kicks in or self-doubt, you got to be able to push it it aside and get back to like what's important.

And you've got to get back to the fearlessness.

You can't go out there and try to be perfect as the number one overall pick.

You can't go out there trying not to make mistakes.

You know, have the courage to fail, as crazy as that sounds.

Like that's what you have to, you have to get to.

And again, that's not holding on so freaking tight

that, again, you become your own worst enemy.

I want to take stock of the league because the state of the union right now for passers, for guys who did this job, it's not looking great.

You know,

when you're watching football right now, you're seeing less of everything that you'd want more of from your quarterbacks.

Passing is down.

As we said, the Andy Dalton thing, 300 yards and three touchdowns did not show up until deep in week three.

Average depth of completion is down.

Yards per game is down.

Yards per completion is down.

Touchdown passes.

So, and there's a bit of a murder mystery here, Alex, right?

There are a a bunch of suspects.

I want to lay them out here for you briefly.

The greater prevalence of young quarterbacks, as now chronicled, the rise of cover two defenses has been a thing, a debate, an active debate.

Should we ban them?

Has been an argument.

Of course, you have defensive coordinators who are getting better at disguising coverages, bad offensive line play, the lack of preparation because preseason has become less of a functional thing at all.

Do you have a favorite explanation as to why passing right now, despite being the thing everybody cares about the most, is also suffering in this way?

There's a lot of reasons that do go into it.

You hit on a lot of them.

I think the major issue is just cyclical here.

I mean, listen,

in the last five to 10 years, we really saw the emergence of kind of shotgun spread offense, RPO run game, take over the NFL.

You know, like

it wasn't that long ago.

Like I got, I ran a similar offense in college.

Like when I got drafted, it was like it was considered gimmicky.

Like, it was a joke, the offense that I ran in college.

Like, it would never work in the pros.

And then it has seemingly taken over the NFL.

And so you've really seen, I think, a swing on the defensive side that, listen, we're just not, we're not going to give it up.

We're not, you know, like, we're not going to let Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase throw it over our head.

We're going to keep them in front of us.

We're going to double it.

We're not like these, especially these receivers on the outside, certainly a bunch of them that all got paid here in the last couple of years.

These guys are monsters.

You cannot play them one-on-one.

They will absolutely wreck a football game.

And so I do think we've seen the emergence.

When I came to the NFL, do you know what middle linebackers look like, Pablo?

I mean, they were 260-pound neck rolls, just big giant like, because you want to know what they were used to doing is like taking on fullbacks and two-back run and stopping the run.

And again, a quote-unquote pro-style system.

Do you know what middle linebackers look like now?

Like they are, they are fast flow sideline to sideline, you know, 220 pounds, maybe.

These guys are like safeties playing linebacker because you need people that could play in space given what offense has gone.

And now you again, once, and this is just, this is just the nature of kind of cycles in football.

We've seen the other way, the swing again to all these little bodies on the field.

And it's weird that you're starting to see a little emergence of like, oh, the Pittsburgh Steelers were just going to run the football.

The San Diego Chargers have a 300-pound fullback and we're going to run the football.

Derrick Henry

with the Ravens.

And we're these kind of old school, multiple tight ends, fullbacks back out on the field, big fullbacks.

And this is a way to win football games.

And it, and it's weird that now defenses are having a hard time defending those offenses, right?

Because they're, they seem so foreign that the guys out there, this is weird.

They're like, weird to eye formation?

What is that?

You know, like, that's, that's crazy.

I mean, really what you're saying is in the way that your suit as the number one overall draft pick was baggy.

Oh, God.

we're we're cyclically coming back around we've got skinny jeans now we're going back to 15 buttons up to your neck like you had it's fashion i pray not i do see baggy coming back on my instagram pablo but no i pray that the the six button suit the carmelo anthem the steve harvey suit that i was wearing never makes its way back

Listen, we're three weeks into the season, so there's still a lot of football left.

But I do think another thing is kind of the whole mentality to offseason and preseason as well.

Like to Bryce Young, and not him, it's not his decision, but like the Carolina Panthers, he played one series in the preseason.

One series.

He has a brand new offense, brand new head coach.

And to get ready for the season, he played a series.

And that's most of the NFL.

It is the vast majority of the NFL.

A few places, and it's weird, the places that take preseason seriously are Kansas City and San Francisco.

And, you know, these, the weird teams that ended up in the championships game, you know, Detroit and

Baltimore.

We know how much John Harbaugh takes preseason seriously.

You know, like it's funny how those teams seem to have success because they're operated differently.

There's a different culture.

Simultaneously, and we've alluded to it already, but the middle class of quarterbacks, right?

A small group now, ever smaller for those reasons, right?

Teams want to hit the giant home run.

But you watch and you see not just Andy Dalton, but as you say, Geno Smith,

these guys who are not going to be talked about or fetishized in the ways that number one overall picks have been.

But I just wonder, like, are we missing that market inefficiency?

We've lost the middle market for quarterbacks.

The whole nature of the quarterback in the NFL is like, if you're a starting caliber quarterback, Pablo, that you can ask for $50 million.

And then

you're either that or you're not.

Like that, there used to be a middle market for quarterbacks.

Like, hey, this guy's a pretty good player, but he's not top tier.

So we're going to pay him a middle market contract, which is still great money.

And then we can spend the leftover on a receiver or a, you know, a left tackle.

And that's just gone.

Like, again, if you're a starting caliber quarterback, like you can command.

Like when you look at the list of top 10 paid quarterbacks, I think two of them have ever made the playoffs or won a playoff game.

Like it's crazy.

Like, you know, that what these guys are getting paid and we've lost that.

And I also think there's this huge AFC NFC NFC bias, Pablo.

Oh, explain this.

I don't know.

I don't know this.

So like forever, like the last several years, the AFC is the best conference and a lot of it because of their quarterbacks.

Like when you think about the list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, it's all AFC.

It's Patrick.

It's Joe Burrow.

It's Josh Allen.

It's Lamar Jackson.

Aaron Rodgers over there now.

Like the list just keeps going of the Jason Herbert QBs.

Yeah, like these like superheroes larger than life.

And the NFC, I feel like just absolutely gets dismissed.

And you hit on this list.

Like these guys so far this year are are out playing their afc like the big name high profile guys like the geno smiths of the world that like oh this guy was i mean he was a backup for like eight years right like sam don was he out of football the guy you you you you have nightmares about winding up with starting for your fantasy football team are the guys killing it in real life killing it baker mayfield oh sonny's lining it up jared goff oh kyler murray these guys that like aren't seen as good as their like afc peers and like it couldn't be more untrue right now Like these guys are playing unbelievable football.

It reminds me of a bottom line feeling that I'm left with every time I end up learning a ton from you, which is that In the NFL, when it comes to quarterbacks in particular, nobody knows anything.

Like we can reverse engineer.

And again, I come to you because you lived it and you have this first person perspective.

But when you zoom out and you consider the cycle and the arc of all of it,

Alex, like

we don't spend, I think it's very difficult to find a thing that America obsesses over more than quarterbacks that they are worse.

at accurately forecasting.

I think it's fascinating.

And this goes back to the draft.

You know, you and I talked about the history of the Wonderlick.

Yes, the S20 and the Combine, the S2 test.

How do you identify an NFL quarterback?

What is actually important?

And how do you identify those traits?

And so far,

apparently nobody has a clue.

How does Brock Purdy go to the last pick in the draft?

I mean, it just, it doesn't make sense.

The greatest quarterback of all time, you know, for now, is Tom Brady.

Like, how does he fall?

Right.

And yet, how many,

you know, build a player type QBs have gone in the first round?

These just, you know, again, this, the 6'5,

shredded, can throw at 80 yards, huge hands, have not performed in the NFL.

Like, it's got the highest bus rate of any position.

in the draft.

Like when you look at first round positions, quarterback is like, they're the lead, it's below 50%, the hit rate.

And so clearly the NFL historically like has just has no idea what they're doing on this.

And so I think it's fascinating, again, that like, what are the attributes and characteristics that are most important?

And obviously, they're not measurables.

Like, let's, we can just start there.

Yep.

They're not things that, that, that we know how to measure to this point.

And certainly the S2 test is like trying to figure that out.

Yep.

Processing speed, all that.

I went around and asked, you know, with ESPN, I got to interview a ton of QBs this offseason in training camp.

And that was one of my questions for all these guys because I kind of wanted to go to the source.

Yeah.

No, you sat down with Aaron Rodgers.

Who else did you tell us?

Let's hear from Aaron.

Yeah.

Like, let's talk to Patrick.

Let's, you know, like Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff and Brock Purdy.

Like what, you know, you're a GM.

What are you looking for?

All of resiliency came up.

Right.

That just, it is going to be a freaking hard road.

And you better be mentally tough and resilient if you want a a chance to make it.

And I think that's something that we lose sight of because we only really see them on, see these guys on Sundays.

And we, you know, they're so glorified.

And even like the great ones, like it, they just, you go through struggle is such a part of everybody's story to success.

And so you better have the makeup, I think, to work through that, you know, beyond whatever physical attributes.

And so, and I get to the point that like there is a physical floor that I think any guy has to have, right?

But that's all it is, is just a floor.

And then from there, I think it's these things that you can't measure that probably have the biggest impact

on their success.

You need to own the vulnerability.

You need to own,

like, to be a leader means to be vulnerable.

The reason I say nobody is better equipped to talk about this job than you is because you, through pain and suffering and triumph, and then pain again, and then triumph again, and now podcasting,

you clued into that in a way that is is just blunt and honest.

I spent six years

trying to be perfect.

I was scared to death to make a mistake.

I took the field with the worst mindset possible.

And

certainly there was a moment of hitting rock bottom.

You know, we mentioned, you know, the entire all of candlesticks screaming, you know, David Carr.

was a moment that I'll never forget.

But I didn't, the only way I got out of it was through

great teammates and great leaders that helped me get back to like the other side of it, right?

The courage, the fearlessness.

Like Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reed, you know, changed my career.

Absolutely changed my career.

These guys, I think,

recognized, you know, how difficult it is to do this,

brought joy back into it, but really like the fearlessness.

Neither of those coaches reinforced

the kind of the fear of making mistakes.

Like I hate do-overs, like as a player, Pablo, I hated do-overs like in practice.

There was this like idea that you had to be perfect in practice.

And my first, like, I feel like that's what consumed my first like five years in the league.

Like, God, if we had an incompletion, I'll like, like, I can just hear like

Mike Singletary saying, do it again.

And you're just like, oh, no.

Now like the scout team knows the play and like the next one would be incomplete again.

It's like, do it again.

And like, It just was miserable.

Pablo was miserable.

And it like only reinforced this idea that like I had to be perfect.

And then to fast forward, tell it to Jim and Andy.

And that's just not the philosophy.

No job has more of a credit dysmorphia, if I can invent a term like that, where it's just sort of like everybody has a warped sense of what they're actually responsible for because everybody sees this as the most important thing.

The reason the NFL is the greatest challenge in sports is because it takes a thousand different things to get the formula right.

It does.

And those are constantly constantly changing.

And I think that's what I think is fascinating about it.

I think that's why people are consumed with it.

And I know that that's why I am as well.

But for anybody trying to take credit for the singular thing in that, like, you know, winning and quarterback success,

again, is just doesn't know what they're talking about.

Yeah.

Alex Smith, my friend, thank you for helping me get better at knowing what the f I'm talking about.

Anytime, Pablo.

For more from Alex Smith, by the way, I greatly encourage you to check out his new podcast entitled Glue Guys, which he co-hosts with Shane Badier and Robbie Gupta.

It is devoted to discussions from across sports and across business about how to make the people we work with better at what they do.

And because I now consider Alex Smith after our late night to ESPN Daily and these episodes of PTFO a branch of my podcast coaching tree, I should disclose to you that it's really good, this new show that he has.

As for us, I am Pablo Torre and this has been Pablo Torre Finds Out, produced by Metalark Media.

We'll talk to you next time.

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