Vox's Unexplainable Presents: Jumping the Gun

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Hello, it is.

Is me?

Either way, it's Pablo.

Listen, it's been a hell of a two weeks here at Pablo Torre, finds out.

My brain is a little broken by that, as the intro to this might suggest.

And we'll get to all of the stuff that has been developing in these last several days with the nflpa and more in coming episodes and coming weeks but today we wanted to bring you something different and also give our overworked and underrated staff some time off

and what we have for you today is an episode from one of our kindred spirits over at Vox.

This is an episode of a show called Unexplainable, in which they use science multiple times a week to tell a story, to explain something.

And this episode just happens to be a sports episode.

It happens to be about an object I've long been fascinated by.

And that object happens to be a gun.

There's Confident.

And then there's Tania Gaither.

When I was younger, I used to beat up on the boys in PE, and ever since then, like, I've been addicted to what I do.

What she does is sprint for Team Bahamas at the highest level.

I love the adrenaline rush that I get every time I line up.

I love making my family and my country proud.

I wouldn't choose any other career for myself right now.

Back in July, Tainia was gearing up for a huge race in Oregon.

This was the World Championships, which is the biggest championship that we have as professional sprinters for the year.

Tainia had been training for months, day after day, to get ready for this championship.

And she'd reached the semifinals of the 100-meter dash.

These moments are everything to us.

It was a beautiful day, high 70s, clear blue sky.

Got out on the track, everything was perfect.

I was really zoned in to this race because I knew what I was capable of.

I knew that I was ready to run the race of my life.

Tanya Gay through the Bahamas.

She lined up in the second lane.

Twice a world championship finalist over 200.

And Tanya was locked in.

If you go back and watch the video, you can just see how like tense my face looks.

I'm like, okay, yeah, like this is going to be great.

She made sure to do her pre-race ritual.

My teammates like to laugh at me about that.

I slap my legs and I throw my arms up in the air and throw them back over my head and just do like a little shimmy with my shoulders.

Then I get into the blocks.

She sat up in the blocks, one leg in front, one leg behind, with both her hands on the ground in front of her.

I heard the crowd go quiet.

Of course, you can hear, you know, a few murmurs or whatever, but that's normal.

And, you know, when everybody gets set and still, only and when everybody's still, they'll stay set.

Sure.

And you'll come up in your set position.

And then I heard the gun go off, and I took off, and then I heard the gun go off again, and then I stopped.

At this point, it was all confusion.

That second gun was officials stopping the race because someone had broken a rule.

No, I'm not sure I can see that to the naked eye either.

It's a bit hard to hear, but behind the voices of the commentators, you can just make out an in-stadium announcement.

I mean, and

false start line two

yeah it's it's coming up on our screen a false start means that tainia didn't wait for the gun before she reacted she started too early i i i couldn't believe it because i just knew it wasn't me there was no way i've never false started ever in my life after a false start all the runners have to line up again and restart but without tainia this time because once you false start you're immediately disqualified i thought it was an error.

It wasn't immediately obvious to the naked eye.

I quite like to see that again.

I knew I started once I heard that gun go off.

That one was so tight I think it was indiscernible.

The crowd was like no no like you didn't fall start.

Crowd don't like it.

They was like protest protest no you didn't do anything.

And then I was like okay no I'd like to protest.

Okay so this might take a little while.

Tainia walked off the track to make her case to the official.

And he has a little screen that shows him the video replay.

Wow, that's so marshal.

That's really hard to tell with the naked eye.

Literally looked like I did nothing wrong.

But the official wasn't just looking at the replay.

He also showed me my reaction time, and it was like lit up in red,

which means, you know, basically the start was just too fast.

Pressure sensors in the starting blocks showed that Tainia had started 0.093 seconds after the gun went off.

After the gun went off.

Like I'm mind-blown.

You're telling me I'm penalized for something I did after the gun went off.

Just a reminder, I know many of you will be familiar with this.

If it's quicker than a tenth of a second, it's deemed to be illegal.

Tania was officially disqualified for reacting seven thousandths of a second quicker than the legal limit.

According to what they were trying to tell us, no human can possibly move that fast.

without anticipating it.

The officials were saying that because it's impossible to react within a tenth of a second, Tainia must have started before the gun went off, even if no one could see it.

They were basically telling Tainia, you didn't wait for the gun to go off before you started.

You cheated.

You guessed.

There was no guessing in my start.

My coach trains us to wait until we hear the start.

In fact, sometimes she'll hold it extra long for us just to see if we would jump out the block.

So we train to make sure that we don't throw away our opportunities.

Tainia wasn't the only one who was disqualified for a false start after the gun at these World Championships.

It happened to Julian Alfred, who started 0.095 seconds after the gun.

She's right in the center of your picture in the white.

Yep.

It's very, very, very marginal.

And then it happened to Devin Allen, who started 0.099 seconds after the gun.

And he is faster than that tenth of a second allowance.

You know how much faster he is?

By one thousandth of a second.

I just saw the start official say, I'm sorry.

All three of these sprinters started after the gun, and all three of them were disqualified in some of the biggest races of the year.

I really don't like seeing people disqualified.

Having said that, rules are rules, aren't they?

You're right.

But I just couldn't understand what they were saying.

I'm Noam Hassenfeld, and this week on Unexplainable: How fast can humans react?

And is a rule like this actually fair?

Okay, Brian.

Nob.

There's this rule in running that we've both been thinking about for a while.

Yeah.

It's designed to prevent people from guessing when the gun goes off.

And it all relies on the assumption that it's impossible to react in less than a tenth of a second.

That people who start that quickly are actually starting in their heads before the gun.

So, I wanted to ask you about the science here.

Like, does this idea of a limit to human reaction time make sense?

Yes, the concept behind this rule does make sense.

You can't react instantly to a sound.

There is a neurophysiological limit that need to be defined to prevent some athlete to have an unfair advantage by anticipating the gun.

So, I found a scientist who's doing his PhD on this exact question.

His name is Mathieu Melos.

My name is Mathieu Melos.

He's French, so I apologize if I've said his name wrong.

And he thinks this idea of setting a limit makes sense because reacting to a gun just takes time.

There's so many things that need to happen just to get you out of the starting blocks.

There is like different components to the response time.

So first, the gun goes off.

There's time it takes for that sound of the gun to get into your ears.

So there is the time.

Your ears have to convert that stimulus into a neural signal.

Then there is the time.

Your nervous system has to identify that signal.

Send a command down to your muscles to start moving, and that takes some time.

And then there's time for the muscle itself to start contracting, to move.

And then there is

the time.

Like you actually exerting force on the starting blocks that would detect your movement.

So there is all these different components.

It's complex.

So this idea of a limit in sprinting makes sense, but what I just cannot figure out is where this number, 10th of a second, where does that come from?

So I looked into this.

I talked to a historian who wrote a report about this for World Athletics, which is the organization that runs these world championships we've been talking about.

His name is P.J.

Wiesel.

And he told me that it actually actually traces all the way back to the 60s and this West German sprinter named Armin Hari.

He had surging power and explosive pace, but he also possessed the most dubious starting technique that international sprinting has ever seen.

Hari was famous for being a suspiciously fast starter.

His fellow Germans called him the thief of starts.

He did apparently have a really fast reaction time.

They tested him, though we don't know exactly how accurate that was.

Many believe he actually beats the gun.

Ultimately, we don't know if Hari was guessing his starts or if he just had superhuman reflexes, but in 1960, he won a bunch of races, got called for some false starts, and people were pissed because back then, you know, you didn't get immediately disqualified for your first false start.

They would just run the race again.

Oh, it got a little messy.

And West Germany, you know, they wanted something more objective, so they got these force sensors that could automatically detect when someone started.

And this 10th of a second limit basically comes from the company that designed them.

The traditional brand Jum Hans has been a trailblazer in watch design for 160 years.

That said that they had tested a bunch of runners and found that no one could start faster than a 10th of a second.

Okay.

So that sort of like company finding became the basis for this rule of thumb that continued for a couple decades until 1989 when World Athletics, then known as IAAF, made it official.

So, when Tainia was disqualified and told you couldn't have possibly started that fast,

that was just based on something a German company said in the 1960s.

Yeah, basically.

Okay.

That's what this historian told me.

World Athletics has said it's based on science.

So I reached out to them and they told me that a tenth of a second was determined to be the, quote, minimum auditory reaction time.

But they didn't point to a specific study okay the main study that other people point to is this study on eight amateur sprinters which is just a really small sample size and it also seems like the study came out after they made the rule so i just basically have a ton of questions about the science here Okay, so this whole story you're telling me makes perfect sense considering when I asked Matsu about this number, like, do you think it's like valid?

He told me the 100 millisecond false start threshold is not science-based.

He argues that this tenth of a second limit is just not based in rigorous science.

And we really don't know what the actual number is, what the limit ought to be.

If you look at the scientific literature, you can find there have been a bunch of studies that try to answer the question how fast someone can start a race.

And they all kind of find slightly different numbers.

People can start faster than 0.1 seconds.

Matt Chu says he's even found this in his own work.

I'm sure that you can react in less than 100 milliseconds in spring start.

And there is no paper you can go to that has like the gold standard for studying how fast people can start.

There's a lot of small studies on this.

They find different numbers.

So there's just not a lot of confidence from the scientific community that World Athletics has like a correct firm number here.

Yeah, I actually came across a study that was commissioned by World Athletics itself in 2009.

And that study said the tenth of a second limit is incorrect.

Oh, so they know this.

Apparently.

And I asked them about that, but they said this study was too small to actually merit a rule change.

So do a better study.

Right.

I mean, given that all of these studies are so small, it makes me wonder, like, is reaction time in a race a particularly hard thing to study?

When I asked Matthew about this, he explained it is very complicated.

There are just a lot of variables to control for.

So one thing here is that depending on how loud the start sound is, people might start faster.

Like a start all response or something?

Yeah.

Well, it's just like if it's louder, people seem to start faster.

And then the longer the official wait, the faster the start times can be because like you're just, you're just so ready to start.

It's like a it's like a spring being coiled up or something.

Yeah.

And then like when it comes to to these sensors themselves, apparently, like, how they decide when a start happens can be very variable between sensors.

Like, there doesn't seem to be enough consistency here in either the science or the practice to really exactly nail down a number.

So, if this tenth of a second limit isn't based on rigorous science,

do we have a sense of what a better general area of rightness might be?

So, I asked Matthew this question, and he said, if I give you a number, no, I will kind of lie to you.

If I gave you a number, I would be lying to you.

If you look around, there are some scientists who have done some like back of the napkin calculations, you know, that whole list of things that I outlined that need to happen before you can start a race.

Some say that could take 85 milliseconds.

So 15 milliseconds faster than, you know, what is allowed.

But then again, like, you know, Matthew was, he was very insistent on there's like, there's no perfect way to measure anything.

So any measurement is going to come with some range of error.

At the same time, Machu thinks it's important to get a better range of what the limit could be because the victories here can be decided by hundreds, thousands of a second.

The margin of victory is so small in sprints that

I think it's worth to try to improve this.

Machu basically thinks that improving on this number and getting a better estimate of it will really make races fair.

So is there a way to get a better sense of what this limit might be or is it just too many moving parts?

He just wants to make this research a lot more rigorous.

He really wants to take the fastest elite athletes and bring them into the lab.

So not amateurs anymore.

Yeah, not using amateurs.

Top-level sprinters react

quicker than you and me.

It turns out on the track, like during a competition, there's some evidence that suggests that runners are not starting as fast as they possibly could because they just don't want to risk false starting.

They prefer to delay the response time to not be disqualified.

That's why he wants to bring them to the lab and say, Okay, everyone, don't worry about false starts.

We just want to see how fast you could possibly start and just collect a lot of data on some of the fastest people in the world.

He wants to make sure researchers can control for all those variables with the sensors and really just find a gold standard to agree on that this is the best way to record a race start

and then plot that data in a distribution curve and see really where we can better decide on where the limit is.

Okay.

He also thinks that we've been measuring sprint starts in just the wrong place.

What do you mean?

So far we've been talking about the feet.

Right.

You know, like when your foot moves, like that's when the race starts.

But he says like the actual first thing that moves when you start to run are your hands.

Like you're crouched in the starting blocks.

Your two hands are on the ground in front of you, and you're pushing off with your hands.

Yeah.

Yeah.

They push on the floor first.

So that is the first movement you do.

And like, he says that is much faster.

I have a difference, an average difference, about 50 milliseconds between the impulse in the legs and the impulse on the floor that reacts first.

So that's like a huge difference.

Yeah.

Maybe that's where we should decide where the race starts.

So that all sounds great.

Okay.

But to be honest, like I'm not actually sure more science and more technology is the whole answer here.

Isn't the answer usually more science?

We need more science.

So we say it on the show.

It's definitely often science.

But when it comes to sports, I mean, I think using technology in the name of fairness, it's harder than you think.

And there's an argument that sort of a hyper-focus on technology might actually be ruining sports a bit.

Oh, I want to hear that.

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So he yells out, ready on your mark, get set, and I was so key up, I just took off.

So we've got this rule that really seems to be unscientific, to say the least, and honestly, kind of unfair.

And there's rumblings that World Athletics might be considering changing it.

A World Athletics Council member from Finland actually called for a rule change on this, and the president of World Athletics said,

And yeah, the false start rule, I'm sure, will be looked at by the Competition Commission, and everything is on the table as it always is after a championships.

World Athletics actually sent me a great statement on this, which said, quote, it is standard procedure after each World Championships for the World Athletics Competition Commission to review the championships and recommend any rule changes.

So they're not saying anything.

Not really.

So until they do figure out how to change this, I guess I was wondering if we could try to figure out how we might get to a perfectly fair race.

Yeah.

Like, what are the options here?

Okay.

So on the one hand, we've got Matu, right?

He wants to use more science, more technology to kind of get finer distinctions on this limit, you know, take this.

kind of non-scientific 10th of a second limit and bring it, you know, firmly into the realm of science, rigorous science, like you said.

Yeah.

And that's broadly what a lot of the people i spoke to also told me so the historian i talked to pj he said he wanted a lower more precise limit i talked to a sports scientist matt payne who said the same thing and they both said we also need more transparency around exactly how these machines work yeah so you know we can hold them accountable yeah we need to know like each machine is making the same decision around like when that person started right and that's actually what some people think happened at the world championships with Tainia and these other runners, that something must have been up with the machines because reaction times were just like super fast across the board.

And honestly, I think that's a key problem with having this

really...

strictly enforced limit because applying this tiny distinction across tons of machines perfectly, consistently, without any error is clearly showing itself to be really difficult.

And it's also always possible that someone can come along, you know, with just superhuman reaction time and slightly, just slightly break this limit, whatever we find.

Yeah.

And the limit is always going to be a fuzzy number anyway.

Right.

And, you know, if you draw a clear line in the middle of what is ultimately just a fuzzy border, and someone is barely on the other side of that clear line, like, is it really enough to label them a cheater?

No, no, no.

Yeah.

Like, technology doesn't necessarily make fuzzy borders go away.

Sports have not been created or invented to deal with the technology that we have today.

So I talked to this sports writer, Joe Puznanski, and he's written a lot about the use of technology in sports.

Joe says that, like, technology can give us a lot more data, but it's not always clear that more data equals more accuracy, especially when we're dealing with sort of fuzzy borders and sports, which are ultimately, they're games, right?

They're not scientific experiments.

There is a way to break down the context of any game to a point where it's no longer a game, where it's no longer makes any sense.

It's kind of funny.

We've been talking to scientists who the answer to this question is: well, we just need more precise sensors.

We need more science.

We need more, you know, data, data, data.

And I'm sure that's that's fun for them.

Right.

Yeah.

And Joe told me that it can cause some real problems

in baseball, for example.

Used to be that a guy stole a base and the tag was late.

he was safe that's how that worked there it goes

for rios so as long as you're touching the base you're safe that's the one thing i know about baseball right that's the main rule of baseball but now if you slow it down enough you'll see that occasionally the guy when he slides into second base just for a fraction of a second for just a moment watch this his foot will bounce off the bag for like the smallest amount i mean a millimeter you might have got him and what happens in baseball now sometimes is they go to this like instant replay review, and then the ump's like, he's out now.

That's not the way the game was intended to be played.

Nobody ever even knew this existed.

And they stopped the game for like a while.

You know, instead, it becomes this people just pouring over it.

Like it's the Zabruder film trying to figure out, is this guy safe?

Is this guy out?

It's not great.

You know, I'm realizing that if

we went the max technology limit and you actually got to an absurdly small view, you would see that actually we don't touch anything.

Matter is mostly empty space.

It's just electromagnetism that's convincing us we're touching, right?

Yes.

No runner is ever touching a base, and no fielder is ever tagging a runner.

This is this is a little, I think we got a little too deep for this topic, but I see what you mean in that, like

there's always going to be, like, the closer you zoom into things, you, you see, actually, actually, like, our experience of that thing, like touching a base, is not necessarily what's happening on a microscopic view.

Yeah, and it's not just baseball either.

Like, in basketball, there are these endless replay reviews on fouls.

I get so bored of these replays.

They got a great game going.

Again, it's a gray area of, like, what is a foul.

Is that an offensive foul?

Or I don't know.

And then in football, there's this kind of like deeply philosophical issue of what is a catch.

What?

Yeah, like it used to be.

Like, it's in your hands.

Yeah, it seems like this really simple idea.

Like, are you holding the ball?

But now it's like.

The runner did not complete the catch during the process of the catch.

Okay.

If you zoom in really close, is the ball moving a tiny little bit when you hit the ground?

Even though it's in your hands.

Even though it's in your hands.

And even though, like, it was always considered a catch before.

And you've got to continue through the play.

We will now review the previous play.

I don't want to sound like technology is really bad.

You know, it has its place in sports, especially when the lines aren't as fuzzy.

So who finishes a race first seems a lot easier to judge on replay than who started.

Or like tennis, where you know, whether a ball is in or out, like that's a pretty clear decision.

But using fancy technology and tons of camera angles on things like the start of a race or what is a catch in football, it can end up being really disappointing to fans because

you're expecting this clear objective result from all this technology, and it's just a fuzzy border.

Technology can't solve this problem.

Yeah, we signed up to come to a game, not to a slide presentation.

Yeah, it's like something you would do in a lab.

It's not something you want to do

in an arena.

So should we just throw out all the sensors, the cameras, everything, and just

go out there and have fun?

So I think there's there's a couple of things we could do here.

So we could throw out the limit entirely, like just go back to the eye test to see who false started.

But this sports scientist I talked to told me that like people's perception of movement can actually be different.

So some people could actually be better at spotting movement in other people.

So you're introducing yet another complication to when does a race start?

Yeah.

And we could also like keep these pressure sensors, but just get rid of this tenth of a second reaction time limit.

Like just have the race start when the gun goes off and just say, that's it.

That makes sense to me.

You know, like not giving people, you know, penalties for these apparent thought crimes that they've

started before the gun in their head.

Right.

That's intuitive, right?

Like, that's what we think a race should be.

But without this reaction time limit.

Both of these other options might actually incentivize runners to anticipate the gun, like to guess when the gun would go off.

Is it a huge problem to anticipate the gun?

Couldn't that just be a part of the race?

Well, it's against the rules for one thing, but it could also just make races super chaotic.

Like there'd be false starts and restarts all the time.

I don't really think races would want to incentivize that.

Wouldn't runners still just get disqualified?

There's still a big cost for jumping the gun.

Yeah, there's a big cost, but the people I talked to said they think runners would risk it.

Like if you're racing someone who's just way faster than you and your only shot is to anticipate the gun, you might just risk it, even if you could get disqualified.

And then some people probably wouldn't risk it.

So, you know, if we're looking for the fairest possible race, like one where every single person is being timed from the gun to the finish line, I don't really think the answer is taking away the limit and maybe encouraging people to jump the gun more.

I think every option here will fail us in some way.

It's just deciding which failure feels like sports.

I think that's exactly right.

And that's something that Joe said to me.

He basically said, there's no way to make sports perfectly fair.

What you want to do is make it fair enough that people have faith in it.

But we accept the illusion.

So Joe's favorite solution for fuzzy borders in sports like baseball and football is just to accept the gray area.

Let the official watch the replay in real time, no slow-mo.

And if the call can't be overturned, just stick with the call in the field because perfectly fair isn't possible.

Yeah, I think perfect fairness is impossible.

But at least with this false start rule, we could probably make it a little fairer.

We definitely can, especially because we know this reaction time limit isn't right.

So lowering the limit seems like a clear move.

We can embrace the fact that we'll probably need to keep updating it over time.

And then ultimately, if we're honest about the fact that when a race starts is kind of this fuzzy border, we'll end up labeling fewer people cheaters who probably didn't cheat.

It's still embarrassing because,

you know, you don't want to ever be labeled as somebody that cheated.

Tania is still thinking about her false start at the World Championships in July when officials said she started before hearing the gun.

I literally waited till I heard what I needed to hear, just like I've done in hundreds of other races.

For a while, it was hard to shake.

You know, I haven't really shared this with many people, but I've kind of been experiencing a little PTSD with it because now, when, you know, when I get in my blocks, I'm, I'm, the only thing that I'm thinking about in my blocks is be patient.

That's literally like the thing that's been engraved in my head since that moment.

Be patient because you can't afford for that to happen again.

True lovers of this sport.

I love what I do.

And, you know,

as

big of a blow as that was, it hasn't changed, you know, my eagerness to step on the line.

And last month, in August, she was back on the blocks at another big race.

Brittany Brown, followed closely by Tania Gate.

She took home a silver medal, running a personal best in the 200-meter dash.

But the thought of that false start after the gun in July, it's still lingering in the back of her head.

So at the end of all this, I told her about our reporting and all the people we've talked to.

And I guess, like, it doesn't seem like to me like you cheated.

Yes, that's how I feel.

But I guess the data says I cheated.

And you know, I think based on the science here, we have good reason to say Tinia Gaither is not a cheater.

Wow.

Well, I really appreciate that.

I would love for the world to see that research.

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This episode was reported and produced by Noam Hasenfeld and me, Brian Resnick.

It was edited by Meredith Hodenott and Catherine Wells.

Noam wrote the music, Ephime Shapiro did the mixing and sound design, and Serena Solon checked the facts.

Mandy Nguyen is growing magic beans in her backyard.

Christian Naela is hanging out on the other side of the world from us.

And Bird Pinkerton hasn't found treasure in the woods yet, but she did find a mysterious key.

Special thanks to PJ Vazelle, Matt Payne, and Robert Johnson for their help this week.

If you have thoughts about this episode or ideas for the show, please email us.

We're at unexplainable at vox.com.

We'd also love it if you wrote us a review or rating.

Unexplainable is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network, and we'll be back next week.

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