Twitter’s new audio innovation, Apple’s dominance gets a closer look and a prediction on the impact of online trading apps on mental health

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Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara Swisher.

And this is Scott Galloway.

So I heard that you're the king of all media to this week, Scott.

I mean, what is going on?

There was another big piece of money.

More like a court gesture.

No, but seriously, there is another big piece about how wonderful you are.

And I'm like a sidekick.

I'm like, I've been relegated to sidekick lesbian straight man status, which is my favorite thing.

I'm moving on, Kira.

I'm moving on.

I'm, you're Dayton Hudson.

I'm Target.

I have outgrown you.

I have outgrown you.

See you later.

Don't let the door get you.

As my dad said to my mom, his second wife, in 1973, I've outgrown you.

All right.

Okay.

I've got outgrown you.

I'm moving on to number three.

Let's see how that works out.

By the way, thanks for the nice words.

You said some nice things about me.

I appreciate that.

I did.

I did.

It was, it was good.

And then I like.

Can I, can I, so seriously, can I be honest?

My first reaction is, as a narcissist, wow, it's about me.

This is awesome.

I hope everyone I know from high school sees it.

Yeah.

And then, you know what?

I start, I've actually become, and I'm sincere about this, a little bit uncomfortable.

And I'm like, this is so clear how this ends.

I'm just going to fall so fucking hard.

Yeah.

Oh, my God.

Probably.

No, maybe not.

No, I don't think so.

As long as we keep producing great content, Scott, which is entirely within your ability.

I think the issue is you have a love-hate relationship.

You love the attention and you also hate it.

And so it's difficult.

But you love it.

So don't like to deny that you love it is hard.

And you often say hate.

Yeah.

I acknowledge the tension.

I don't like people, but I'm desperate for their affirmation.

Yeah.

It's and it's that's my that's my demon.

I'm so glad we started off talking about me because there's nothing going on in the news.

No, there's so much.

Let's go through it.

There is so much going on, speaking of things that are happening.

Twitter is testing a new audio feature called Twitter Voice.

I have access to it.

I made a Twitter voice twice, a twice.

Do we call it a toice?

That allows certain users to share 140-second audio, which is very long, FYI, clips in the tweet.

Twitter's move to get into the audio podcasting craze.

I did one saying thanks for giving Donald Trump this tool now.

It's an interesting thing.

They haven't done a lot of innovative things, Twitter.

So that was interesting.

I don't know if you have the access to it, like the important people on Twitter do, but me and Cardi B and people like that.

Hey, I got to use the Apple credit card early just because I know you.

I call them.

And also people, people,

do you get, I get, people send us shit all the time.

But anyways, Twitter,

it's a little innovative.

It's a little innovative.

It's innovative.

Yeah, go ahead.

Yeah, it's

innovative-ish.

I heard it was supposed to take

12 months, but it took 24 because they have a part-time CEO.

But anyways,

see what I did there?

See what I did there?

I see what you did.

But I want to know what you think about it.

Do you think it's a good thing?

I thought it was kind of fun.

I think it's kind of fun if people don't go to too many.

I think it's fantastic.

And I think that this times 50 is where Twitter would be if it had a full-time CEO and a management team that wasn't a revolving door.

Twitter has an outstanding platform.

It commands a much bigger space than it occupies or occupies a bigger space than it commands.

Their innovation has been absolutely anemic.

Absolutely anemic.

And this is a great idea.

And there should be about a dozen, there should be one of these every two weeks.

Yeah.

I agree.

It was like the first thing was

delightful.

It was like, oh, delightful.

And you wonder where it's going to go.

I was trying to think because I felt like two and a half minutes is a long time and that people won't be listening to them.

But then I was trying to think of what we could do with it, like what things you and I could do, what we could put up, put parts of our show.

like it's it's a marketing opportunity it's a fun opportunity comics for example uh just all kinds of i thought of all kinds of things and then i thought of all kinds of horrible things that i did my first twice was about donald trump getting a hold of this being crazy and saying crazy things you know directly to people yeah but he everyone has their medium and one of the one of the things i tell my kids when i say kids students to do is to figure out what is your medium and also to avoid what mediums you're bad in.

Donald Trump is not an eloquent person.

And when you hear him in audio, he just sounds ridiculous.

Which is why Sarah is very good on Twitter.

Yeah.

Yeah.

100%.

100%.

You see how bad he is.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Good point.

What it comes right down to is what they decide to do with the algorithm.

For a while, Twitter and Facebook were very much promoting video, but

an individual I work with who's smarter than me about this stuff says, do these videos for Twitter, but make sure they're less than two minutes and 20 seconds because the algorithm doesn't like long form video, it likes short form.

So it's really up to Twitter.

Twitter can promote the heck out of this product that they want.

It's all about what the algorithm decides is innovative or isn't innovative.

I was thinking it should be longer.

Why couldn't we put the whole podcast up there?

Anyway, it's just sort of like I got all kinds of ideas in the middle of the night last night, like what we could do with it and what could be fun.

It's, you know, like the same thing with TikTok.

I've been really exploring TikTok.

Anyway, I thought it was good for Twitter.

You're right.

They should do one of these a week.

You're right.

100%.

In a more serious topic, these issues continue around

racism and problems with diversity.

Pinterest early this week, two black women who held leadership roles on the company's policy team, Effie Ozama and Erica Shimizu Banks, said they experienced racial discrimination, unequal pay, and a hostile work culture.

Pinterest originally found no wrongdoing by the company when they complained, but later said they will commit to a non-white board member by the end of the year.

It seems, I don't know, I just, that's not really how

I just, I don't even understand that as a response, although that's great.

Uh, then PepsiCo, another big brand, they suns they they sunsetted a racial stereotype, uh, racist uh stereotype this time from PepsiCo, who will be retiring Aunt Jemima.

I I didn't even know Aunt Jemima was still around from the maple syrup brand.

Uh, we'll have Beth Ford, CEO of Land of Lakes, on the show next week to discuss why the company removed their branding of a Native American woman on their label back in February, which she did just on her own as a CEO and took a lot of gut.

But then, then, you know, people got used to it.

And the land and the lakes are still there, as someone said on Twitter.

So, you know, this is just rolling through all kinds of companies and everything else.

And as everybody has their moment of reckoning, where do you,

what do you think about them doing this?

I think Uncle Ben's is another one, which is another.

I didn't know it still existed.

So what do you do?

If you're a company, you just move in here and get them done.

My thing is, why didn't they do it before when it was the right thing to do, like Beth Ford did at Land of Lakes?

Long time coming, very late.

How do you look at these moves by these companies?

It's really, I think there's so many interesting things taking place, and that is typically crises or a function of anger or upset by your customer base.

People get, say, you know, your supply chain is unethical.

There are people making less than minimum wage in Vietnam.

And then you hire Edelman and you get Wyden Kennedy to come up with a communications plan and you

address it and it's about communications to the external stakeholders.

What's interesting about this so far is it's not as much the external stakeholders getting very angry, but your internal stakeholders, specifically your employees.

So it's not about running a 60-second spot during the Mass Singer.

It's about, okay, we have to make, we have to, and this is good, we have to affect

actual change and we have to communicate that.

internally.

I also think just as

just as with the brand age,

you could communicate and come up with a

tangible association.

Some people would just call it bullshit and wrap it around a mediocre product.

Companies are used to coming up with the right themes saying Black Lives Matter on Seraphant on a well-produced Black Square on Instagram and thinking that'll work.

And now with the introduction of Google, such that people no longer had to defer to the brand, but actually found out what that hotel was like, how good that car was or wasn't, actions are speaking louder than words here.

And that is people want actual actions.

And I think there is productive things taking place.

600 black managers signed an open letter to the management of WPP about what were specific changes that needed to happen.

And WPP is committed to it.

I would argue that as actual change.

The other thing that's sort of interesting here, and I now see COVID-19 as a metaphor for everything,

is that initially COVID-19 struck what you would call the most progressive areas.

Not because they're progressive, but because there were cities that had a lot of interaction

with international destinations where the virus originated, they were dense, and now it's spreading to more conservative rural states.

And what's interesting about

this controversy or this issue is that it seems to be hitting companies I would describe loosely as pretty progressive because the people within the company are progressive and they're outraged and they're upset and they want to see change.

Whereas more conservative companies, where I would argue there may be a bigger problem, don't seem to be having this internal strife.

So it's starting.

I mean, I know a lot of people, Pinterest, I know you do.

I wouldn't describe it.

I would describe Pinterest.

I know they need to make progress.

I'm sure there's a lot of issues there, but I wouldn't describe, you know, it's not.

It's not, I'm trying to think of a very conservative organization.

It's not In-N-Out Burger or Chick-fil-A.

It's not a conservative organization that is.

It's not the old South.

Yeah, but I would argue that it doesn't have to be like that because what they do is they constantly pat themselves on the back from for their for their like openness and everything else, and then they don't do anything.

So, in lots of ways, it's what's the difference.

And I think a lot of people of color and women who work there,

you know, or any what you would consider a marginalized community, which really aren't marginalized,

are made to be gaslit.

I've heard so many stories there, you know, and we had covered the Alan Powell thing.

It's the same story over and over again.

What would you mean that by that?

Made to be gaslit, right?

Oh, it's so nice here.

Oh, you're complaining.

Something must be wrong with you.

You know what I mean?

Like, and I think a lot of people I talk to.

We're better than most.

Shut up.

Yeah, Slack, others.

There's so many people I talk to who then either speak up or just leave.

Is that they'll get people in there and then they don't do the mentoring and the training necessary to keep them.

Or the way the system is, it doesn't hold people there.

And so it's just, it's sort of more insidious because

you are made to feel that it's your fault when it's not and i so i i i don't recommend either methodology you know very overt racism that occurs all over the place continually um and this and so i think that they're always surprised and they and then they turn towards unconscious bias and then the numbers are the same and you're like this is happening for a reason and it's not because you're better you pack of white men it's not because you're better like that's like i think in the back of their heads they think that's why there's 70 i mean I don't know.

I just, they just are constantly sort of in this move into a fascinating, like, just like the Mark Zuckerberg video last week with his wife.

It was they suddenly became aggrieved.

right when they're when they have their hands on on the on the on the reins of power and you're like you're aggrieved you don't get to be aggrieved you cause this and so that's a rant but it's just they just they move into victimhood really quickly uh but very important that these things happen i i just i i i can't believe they're still there the same thing with the Redskins.

There's all kinds of things, the Washington Redskins.

Just if you were advising Pinterest, what would you advise them to do?

You know, Ben Silberman, but what would you advise him to do?

I have talked to him about this a dozen times.

I mean, I just, I had heard lots of these kind of,

especially from women there.

I just, I think they're just, I, I, I don't know, and he happens to be a particularly earnest character compared to a lot of them and is not someone who resists a lot.

And like he will listen, just like Brian Chesky is similar.

Maybe they're just, you know,

just ignoring me and thinking in their grocery lists in their heads when I talk to them about stuff like this.

But they seem more cooperative or open to it.

You know, we're trying this and that.

It's a bra, it's slow.

The pipeline, like, I don't know.

I just would like to, we will fix it.

And by next year, we'll have a better number.

And here's how we're going to do it would be a welcome response.

It's often it's very

tangible change around number

tangible commitments to the number of non-whites on the board, senior management roles.

Right.

They seem to want to add one person of color to the board.

And I'm like, why didn't you do it before?

Why don't you examine?

It's literally like the same thing.

Oh, yeah, but you got to start with Mark.

I mean, you can always say, why didn't you do it?

The Myanmar stuff.

I was like, don't you want to know how it happened?

Rather than to, like, they don't have any interest in understanding how it got, how they got that many board members of the same kind.

Again, it's not overt that you can say, you're just a racist.

It's not like that.

It's so you get lost in this.

It's like fighting a pillow.

Like, I don't know how to explain it.

It's really hard to, and somehow you become a pain in the ass or you're mean.

I'm always known as mean, and I don't think I'm particularly mean, but maybe I am.

Anyway, but let's get to a big story, another big story.

There's so much, there's so many.

It's a roiling news, news situation out there, just so you know.

Department of Justice sent out a 25-page recommendation to lawmakers on rolling back Section 230, as a reminder to to our listeners, which we talked about last week, Mike Masnink was fantastic.

Section 230 is a law that protects platforms from legal accountability.

for the content that appears across their properties.

In a recommendation released on Wednesday, the DOJ asked lawmakers to repeal parts of the law that has given sites immunity from lawsuits for speech posted on their platforms.

So, for example, if the recommendation is taken up by Congress, users could sue companies in cases that involve child sexual abuse, terrorism, and cyberstalking.

This move comes after President Trump announced an executive order to roll back some of the

protections afforded these companies under Section 230.

So again, Bill Barr, the water carrier of all time,

I think that's what it is.

What do you think, Scott?

Well,

I think it's more reason why

there should be so much more energy focused on getting young people to vote.

Because if this administration has demonstrated anything, it's that our elected officials have more power than our institutions, which are supposed to slow down our elected officials when they start trying to overrun standard.

This is supposed to be the domain of the FCC and people much smarter than these individuals who don't have the domain expertise or a lifetime in communications or law.

And if you see what's going on,

I think it all directs kind of reverse engineers back to this thing, and that is voting has incredible power because our elected officials are now deciding deciding to become the FCC, like these bad versions of the FCC.

These guys, I would like to see Donald Trump explain what 230 is.

Our guest, what is the individual's name?

Mike?

Mike Mack.

I thought I knew what 230 was until I spoke to Mike, and I realized I don't really understand 230.

So the notion, all they see it as they want to employ their political machinery of intimidation and delay and obfuscation and saying, basically saying to media companies, if you you don't sign up and become part of, you know, don't be, if you don't become

state media, I'm going to use all of these institutions to try and punish you, that I can do that.

And it's just, Bill Barr and Donald Trump have no business talking about 230.

This isn't even a Department of Justice issue.

It's an FCC issue.

So I don't, it all reverse engineers back to, okay, what do we do about it?

We vote.

I hope a lot of the rage and upset out there gets translated at the voter booth this November because our elected officials, our democracy is actually working too well.

The demo in democracy is the problem, and that is elected officials can overrun our institutions that have stood there for decades or even centuries.

Well, yeah, they just haven't.

It's really interesting.

They really haven't done it as much as you would think they could.

And I think one of the things is that they, you know, in this case,

as what I've been saying is I'm glad, I guess, Facebook and the others have lobbyists to stop this kind of thing, but then it prevents real legislation from happening.

So the reason why I find this so ham-handed by Bill Barr and others is because it doesn't, it negates the ability to create real legislation because it's sort of

dirtying up the pond here so that internet companies can point to this kind of behavior and then not really be liable for the things they deserve to be liable for.

So you can't do intelligent legislation in a slow process that, you know, as much as people complain about Washington and laws and states, slow process always ends up with, can end up with better legislation.

Not always, of course, but this sort of bifiat stuff that Trump is pulling.

And again, it's the last desperate grabs of this guy who seems every day to do something crazier.

Okay, Kara, we're going to take a break.

When we get back, we're going to talk about hey.com, the email startup that's having issues with Apple, the Monopoly Apple, Apple Monopoly, a Monopoly, aopoly.

We'll be right back.

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Okay, Scott, we're back.

Let's talk about Basecamp's new email service, Hey.com.

They're claiming Apple is abusing their power against them in the App Store.

Hey.com is a new email service that helps sort through email clutter.

It is an ambitious attempt to dethrone Gmail and other big email providers.

It was launched earlier this week.

I had the CEO of Basecamp on the show on the Recode Decode talking about it.

But Apple has threatened to remove them from the app store if the company does not start offering in-app subscriptions and cutting and sharing a cut of the service's revenue.

David Heinemeyer Hansen is the CTO of Basecamp.

He went crazy on Twitter calling Apple gangsters, mafiosos, and things like that.

I'm running a column this week for the Times about it.

He claims Apple is rejecting a bug fisc update and that Apple has asked the company in a phone call to commit adding an in-app subscription to prevent it from being removed, which is one of their rules, one of their guidelines.

Meanwhile, the European Union has opened antitrust investigations against Apple's App Store and Apple pay practices.

This is, I think, a big deal, and especially because it puts attention on a company that doesn't get as much attention for bullying.

But in this case, you know, Apple's saying these are our rules and you know it.

And in the case of someone like Basecamp, which is very typical of a lot of developers, they're finally speaking up, saying we don't like your rules and the way you administer them and the exceptions you make.

So what you know, you were talking about this and even Facebook is fighting with Apple over bringing a gaming

a gaming app to the store.

And that's a that's a different story.

But what do you what do you think will happen here, Scott?

This is not a good look for Apple, I think.

Yeah, Apple's largely managed to

stay out of the fray.

And that is, it's not obvious how you would break them up.

Tim Cook has been very elegant in his privacy as a basic human right.

He's more likable.

They're not seen as, because they're not in the business of data and they get most of their margin or most of their dollars from margin on tech products

as opposed to violating your privacy with data.

They've largely stayed out of the fray and have done a really good job starching their hat wide.

But there's just no getting around it.

The App Store is a monopoly.

If you look at just the stream, it's a duopoly.

It's Google and

it's two toll booths, essentially.

But if you look at the amount of revenue, if you look at where it's going, I agree it's a duopoly, but Apple's the lead dog.

Even though you look at the streaming video platforms, somewhere between 3 and 15% of the total revenue that goes to these guys doesn't go to them.

It goes to Apple because all of their apps have to be downloaded downloaded through Apple.

And Apple makes it very hard to, Apple owns the Rails and it's a perfect example of a company that's become a utility and needs to be regulated around apps.

So it's not antitrust, it's regulation, but the App Store should absolutely be subject to the kind of scrutiny.

How does Spotify ever compete with their superior product, Apple Music, when they have to pay a 30% tax to Apple?

You can't compete against a product that Apple then launches and has a 30% price advantage because they own the Rails and you have to pay a 30% tax to get to the end consumer.

So good for them.

They built an ecosystem, but it should absolutely be regulated.

Well, it's going to be interesting.

Let me just read something from Walt Mossberg, actually, my old partner,

that he just tweeted.

Walt.

Walt, I'm not weighing in on a growing controversy about the complex rules applied to developers in Apple's App Store, just based on what I've read.

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple is forced to change some of them, but I want to make three points that people seem to forget.

First, in free markets, any merchant is free to receive a a fee or share of a price of the goods it distributes to consumers.

This is not a tax.

You're free to think 30% is too much to sell your app on the phone with about 10% global share, but it's not a tax.

Second, there's a history to this.

Before the App Store, carriers controlled which apps could make it onto phones and often took most of the revenue, 50%, 70% and more.

I was there when Steve Jobs announced that Apple would only take 30% from a room, and a room full of developers cheered.

Third, even if some of the rules are judged illegal or unfair, I personally value Apple's tight control of third-party distribution as a guard against most most malware and a protection of privacy.

I favor curation.

So Apple, you know, and then others like John Gruber were like, this is ridiculous.

Apple's excuses for around, hey, for example, whether it's a consumer app versus a business app is specious.

So it's a really, it's going to be a really interesting debate.

And you're right.

Things are going to change.

There's going to be some kind of regulation here.

And I think Apple should probably step forward and get ahead of it themselves, as you often say.

Well, there's often, I think Walt's points are good.

There are benefits to scale.

Some of the things you talked about, and that is having uniform standards around malware or bad players.

There are benefits to scale.

Sometimes it makes sense to have a monopoly or duopoly in a given market or in a given business.

And when it does make sense, you regulate their pricing.

And so this might be a perfect example of a company where there's benefits of scale to having one or two places where you get apps.

But they should absolutely, in terms of their pricing in there,

I mean, if Spotify is growing, is is not growing as fast as Apple Music, it means there's trouble in Mudville.

And it's very simple.

If they have to start 30% down in terms of their ability

to reinvest capital in marketing or the product, then Apple Music with an inferior product is going to is going to win.

And they don't want to be forced to sign up subscribers via the app because of this.

I think it moves from 15% to 30% depending on the year and different things like that.

But it's still onerous.

I mean, even one of the people from Hey.com, the founders, was pointing out that credit card companies only charge 1.8, and they find that onerous, right?

Percent.

And so this is a, you know, they can't make this a business.

They've spent millions on creating it, and they can't compete.

And one of the quotes he said, besides calling them gangsters and mafiosas, was, you know, we thought we were fighting the Gmail monopoly, but really we're fighting these heavies too.

And so I think you'll find the column interesting, but

it's a really, it's, you know, and Apple has its argument to make about, you know, keeping standards and people knew the rules and this and that.

But I don't think they can deny there's only two toll booths in the mobile world and they belong to Apple and Google.

So it's something they're going to have to face.

100%.

100%.

So Scott, you do think they're going to change.

Apple is going to change.

And you think they'll be forced upon them or what?

What would you imagine if you were sitting next to Tim Coke?

What would you advise him?

So ground zero for this type of regulation is the App Store or store, specifically Apple and Android.

There are benefits to scale, as Walt pointed out.

There are benefits to, you know, they have earned their place in the world.

But when you get to a point where, you know, it makes sense for Florida Power and Light to be the primary provider of electricity generation and distribution.

But when you get to a point where you either turn on your lights or you don't,

which means being a customer of FPL, it requires regulations such that you don't have userous pricing and anti-competitive dynamics, both of which we have here with the App Store.

So this absolutely should be subject to really thoughtful, non-bar, non-Trump scrutiny around regulation.

So the other three guys, you know, I think the solution is antitrust and breaking them up.

Apple, you can't break up because who would have domain over

their key asset, which is the brand, but it is ground zero

for regulation with the app store.

And to make the, to have, to have standard, I mean, look, Google's one big Wild West situation.

And one of the other questions I have for you is, okay, if they do this, it's become a substantive amount of their revenue, the

service revenues.

It was $519 billion in overall sales, of which Apple gets a part of that.

So they've also created a very lucrative platform for

developers.

And at the same time, developers feel like they're taking too much of the toll.

So to me, I think there's no good toll booth in the...

end but does there have to be so what do you what do you do when it's that much money for everybody including apple well it just might Apple might

lose some revenue here, or they may not.

I mean, a couple of things might happen.

One, they might be prohibited from entering certain businesses where owning the Rails gives them such an unfair advantage.

You know, no one initially thought Apple would be in streaming music.

Yeah.

But when they enter streaming music and they can place a 30% tax on the market leader and they start gaining share again

with an inferior product, it shows it demonstrates, it demonstrates the problem.

So I don't, you know, it's great to be a monopoly, but the fact that you are garnering an unfair share of revenues because of your monopoly abuse doesn't mean that you're entitled to hold on to that revenue.

So, there, yeah, it might hit them hard.

I think the biggest thing that dictates Apple stock price right now is the percentage of revenue they get from recurring revenue.

That kind of the revenue is EBITDA, but the multiple on EBITDA is the percentage they're getting from recurring revenue, which is now up to 23%.

And we've seen a recasting of their stock where it's gone from a PE of 12 to 24.

So, actually, that's more important.

But yeah, the app stores should absolutely be looked at and in my opinion, probably be regulated.

Yeah, I think they're not going to outrun this.

And it'll be interesting to see how they do it.

And I think when developers like Basecamp, which is a very popular pair of entrepreneurs, start to speak up, they're going to get a flood of these things.

It's not going to just be one or two.

And of course, there's an antitrust hearing coming up in the House.

And

the CTO of Basecamp did talk about this last time he was there.

He not just talked about Apple, but he talked about Google and Facebook.

And his last line, which i i quote in the column is uh help us congress we we we have no hope it felt like very star warsian um anyway it'll be interesting and it'll be interesting to see what apple does because don't you want to describe just as but just as an example don't you want i was really interested as i thought about it to try hey i thought wow email really has that's right i am using i don't know what i don't know yeah oh you use it yeah i use it what do you think of it uh i think it's great i i'm still working with it it's got some bugs actually they couldn't fix some bugs that like photos on uh loading up and stuff like that I think it's, I think email, you know, Brian Chan did an excellent review in the New York Times about this.

It's got a lot of issues, but at the same time, the idea of trying to fix email, he thinks you can't fix email eventually.

Eventually, it's impossible.

It's a, it's a war that you can never win and that people have moved on to other messaging platforms.

I, I am always searching for that, that silver bullet to kill email in a way that is not i hate email as you know but i am going to try it i think think it's very innovative and I like any, you know, there's been lots of email apps, but you know, Google continues to control and dominate and honestly spy on you during it.

I don't want to use all the Gmails iterations and I'd like there to be a more vibrant ability for others to do it.

I don't know if email is the hill I would die on necessarily because I do think I'd like to get rid of email completely,

but it just sits there.

Read the Brian Chen interview review.

I thought it was quite fair and I think so did Basecamp.

But you should try it.

It's fun.

And there's a thing called inbox, I-M-B-O-X, instead of inbox.

Inbox.

Anyway, I like it.

You should try it.

It's fun.

No, no, no, no, no.

There's a lot of little innovations like pinning certain things,

putting a file where your bills go,

saving things for later.

It's just instead of having to star them and all these, there's no innovation in email by Apple or Google or anybody.

And it's nice to see innovation.

So

I think that's great.

So anyway, anyway, we're going to to take one more quick break.

We'll be back for predictions.

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Okay, Scott, we've been making predictions about the next class of IPOs.

It's been a strong one.

We saw the stock market make some big gains this week.

Either was a story in the journal about this, the tech

you sent me.

What can we expect in the coming weeks?

It looks like the market, as Susie Orman said, the market is not the economy.

The economy is not the market, but the market rolls on.

Well, this is an observation and a prediction.

I think there's this incredible phenomena phenomena of the young male brain is especially

risk aggressive and gets a lot of reward from taking risks.

And

one of the ways that manifests itself is in gambling.

And gambling addiction is actually,

I believe, the addiction that has the highest suicide rate because you can get into a lot of trouble.

without people knowing.

There can be no external signals that you're in trouble.

If you're a raging alcoholic, the people around you know it and will hopefully intervene.

But you can lose everything with a gambling addiction before anyone even notices it.

And so, anyways, I think that's my prediction.

Just as I think we're going to find out over time that Instagram has been

the direct cause and also the concerted effort of the folks at Instagram to make it addictive has resulted in a lot of

skyrocketing levels of self-harm and suicide among teen girls.

I think we have the same unfortunate forces at play here

with

online trading.

And I'm hoping that the CEO of Robin Hood really took pause.

There was a young man, a 20-year-old,

this kid named Alex Kearns, committed suicide, this 20-year-old in Naperville.

And they found on his phone

the last thing on his phone was it said he was, it registered that he was down 700 grand in his trading app, his Robinhood app.

And so you're seeing just a ton of young men

trading.

And then these these apps, you know, there's zero commission, encourage margin, encourage leverage.

And then

these kids basically feel like there's no way out.

Yeah.

Anyways, my prediction is I think these online trading apps

are going to be kind of the new.

It's interesting, Scott.

This is something that means.

If you have sons, you think like, Jesus Christ, would you, the parents had no idea.

The parents had no idea.

And it feels, it has echoes.

It has echoes of Instagram and the impact it's having on our on our girls and our young women.

And I wonder if there's the same very unhealthy, very unhealthy addictive-like qualities that these companies try and build into their apps.

Well, 100% that is going to result in the type of damage.

I'm curious because you were around for the last online trading boom when people were losing money and when E-Trade and all the others, Ameritrade, and everyone was at home being their own.

And people got in a lot of trouble doing it for the first time when they didn't, you removed, you know, a lot of the things.

Now, on one hand, it's great that you don't need to pay broker's fees and this and that, and be, you know, sort of these speaking of taxes.

How do you, how does that compare from your perspective?

Is it different?

Because it's a mobile app.

It feels even more like gambling.

Because that was, I recall.

Oh, go on, Robin Hood.

They have Confetti.

Yeah.

They have Confetti.

They've gamified it, gamified it.

They've clearly taken notes from gambling in terms of random rewards,

a series of unexpected and random opportunities, visuals, colorization, gamification, also offering leverage and things like pulled put option techniques to young people who have no background in investing.

It's there is something very ugly going on here.

You had thought about investing in this or do you, how do you feel as an investor?

You know, we had this discussion about Jewel.

We had this discussion about Jewel, the same thing, the whole idea.

I'm thinking about investing in one of these companies, a company called Public.

And the thing I like about Public is that

it is not letting kids trade on

leverage.

It's not allowing certain types of options.

It's trying to foot to, and let me be clear, there's some wonderful things about these apps to get young people interested in investing at a young age, to give them the opportunity to invest at a young age, to get them the ability to buy micro shares is an interesting thing.

I think zero commissions is an interesting thing.

So there's a lot of good that can come from this, just as there's a lot of good that can come from social media.

The problem is in order to scale and make money, you start going after the addictive side of the brain and you give them the opportunities to get into trouble.

And there's no,

I worry that the algorithms move the brain to a very ugly place where people feel they have no way out.

Same difference

as evidenced by this young man's suicide.

Yeah.

So you would imagine online trading is becoming the new Instagram.

Yeah.

So regulation.

I don't know.

I don't know what's or lawsuits.

They don't have the same protection as the media companies.

They don't they don't have 230.

So we'll see.

Yeah, I think they will.

I think they'll be

you know, I think there were lawsuits last time.

I'm so long ago when this was happening and it was a phenomenon.

I think there will be, I think just like with Jewel, you know, I remember meeting the Jewel people very early and they're like all up and to the right.

And I was like, it's still cigarettes.

I just don't see how you're going to avoid cigarette issues in the way you advertise to young people.

And the same thing here.

I think once they start sort of preying on, especially young people, and they'll have those statistics and demographics with all kinds of gamification of this, you'll have, this is perfect for regulators.

It feels predatory.

It feels something that's, so this is, this is like, you can see a state's attorney general going after this kind of stuff really quickly.

It reminds me of the same.

the same like if we can take advantage of people we will and i agree with you there's some great parts of kids learning how to how to invest but it is, you know, what Susie was talking about last week.

So I think this is a great prediction.

So I think this is a great thing to talk about.

But IPOs in general, do you have any?

Like they're coming, right?

The big ones are coming.

You see no stoppage.

Yeah,

the one I'm trying to get in on, I don't like to give investment advice anymore.

I just talk about what I'm trying to do.

So I'm voting, trying to vote with my feet.

I'll likely be investing in the IPO of Lemonade

only because, not only because, A, I think the CEO, they're smart.

I heard his interview with you.

He strikes me as a very, very thoughtful, bright guy.

Also, I think shareholder value creation is not only a function of the execution and the quality of the management team, but also the size of the opportunity for disruption.

And when I think about one of the few industries that really has tens of billions of dollars of margin they don't deserve, I zero in on insurance.

And so

I think, and I'm hoping, assuming

I can get stock at a reasonable rate.

I think the IPO of Lemonade might be the best performing stock of the quarter or it's registered the biggest pop.

I guess it's dependent upon how they price it.

But lemonade, a disruptor in the highly disruptible business of insurance, could be just a monster.

Marketing.

Insurance.

I really enjoy it.

I think about how much money they're spending on TV.

I agree.

Agreed.

Agreed.

Agreed.

And insurance is.

Do you have any predictions, Kara?

No, I don't.

I never do.

I let you have them.

And then you go out on the limb.

And then sometimes it gets sawed off and sometimes sometimes it doesn't.

So I like to just watch as you do that, as you perform your high wire act, Scott.

I don't like, I don't like when I say tweets like, you got this wrong.

I don't know what's going to happen.

All I do know

is that

what?

The key isn't what?

Tell me, give me a tip on predictions.

The key isn't to be right.

It's to catalyze a conversation.

Fair.

Okay, I'll catalyze a conversation.

People of Silicon Valley, as I've said a million times, you have to stop doing these band-aid approaches to things like racism and diversity and actually do some actual actions to get to the root of the problem.

You have to do this.

It's not just a moral imperative, it's a business imperative.

And the more you don't do it, the more I find you to be just like every other shitty capitalist that exists.

So if you want to rise high, try harder.

That's what I say.

Thank you.

All right.

There you go.

How's that?

How's that?

Or is that just election?

Was that predictions or indignant, self-righteous rants?

Which part of the throwing in right now?

You know what?

I'm right, though.

I'm on the right side of history, and you know, you don't have to listen to it.

But I'm right.

No, but he's not.

But I'm right.

The new book from Kara Swisher, but I'm right.

I have a book.

I'm writing a book.

You're going to be in it.

And it's going to be a tell-all about your FOMA and other issues.

Unfortunately, there's not a ball to tell here, but anyway.

There'll be new headlines about Scott Galloway and not just that he's the king of all media.

Oh, my God.

I literally wanted to.

I literally.

I'm the horrible all media.

It's not that my media is that good.

It's just I say yes to everything.

Why didn't it say the horrible media?

I say yes to everything.

Why did not it say the horrible media?

That was

a horrible media.

Literally, all the men have man crushes on you.

It's a tongue bath, like continually.

It's fascinating.

I'm just saying it's fascinating.

Anyway, there's not going to be a back a backlash against you, Scott.

Not yet, at least.

Anyway, do you have any plans for the weekend?

We got to go.

We got to go.

Any plans for the weekend?

Florida's having the COVID situation.

I'm trying to get my mother out of there before she

wanders her way into into record number of infections in Florida.

Yeah.

No, we're sheltering in place and, you know, time with my boys and all that good stuff.

How about you?

Are you not putting the kids out to the lawn anymore?

You've finally figured out a way to get along together.

We, you know, we're, we're, we're,

we're, we're having a great time.

We've been watching actually the Wonder Years and we've been watching.

Oh, I love that.

Fred Savage.

Oh, it's wonderful.

And the way I bond with my 12-year-old is everyone goes to sleep and then he sneaks downstairs and we watch Killing Eve together.

So inappropriate.

Which one do you watch?

So inappropriate.

What do you watch?

Killing Eve.

Oh, don't do that.

Killing Eve.

What is wrong with you?

Oh, yes.

He loves it.

He loves it.

I am going to do an intervention with the Florida government soon, very soon.

So don't just answer to me.

What are you doing this weekend, Kara?

I'm in Vermont.

It's lovely here.

It's lovely here.

And I will be bicycling and dealing with, I don't, the only thing, I love it here.

It's quite beautiful, but the bugs, I don't like bugs.

And I like to work.

I don't, I'm not a a vacationer, Scott.

I'm just not.

I'm just not.

I like to work.

I like the big city.

But it's beautiful here.

Amanda's parents have a beautiful house and

it's lovely.

It's lovely, nature-y, and very pretty.

So I think there will be maple syrup in my future at some point here.

Anyway, don't forget if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, email us at pivot at boxmedia.com to be featured on the show.

Scott, please read us out.

Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sonanos.

Fernando Finete engineered this episode.

Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer.

Thanks also to Drew Burroughs.

Make sure you're subscribed to the show on Apple Podcasts, or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify.

But wherever you listen to podcasts, if you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend.

Thanks for listening to Pivot from Box Media.

We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

This month on Explain It to Me, we're talking about all things wellness.

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Why do we want that so badly?

And is all this money really making us healthier and happier?

That's this month on Explain It to Me, presented by Pure Leaf.

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