Cheaper Teslas, OpenAI’s Cash Burn, and Apple’s CEO Succession Plans

Support for this show comes from Smartsheet.

Have you ever wondered about all the incremental steps it takes to launch a rocket ship, or maybe get a race car around a track, or perform a life-changing surgery?

These feats of human ingenuity are executed by many people taking many steps that lead up to one big goal, making the seemingly impossible possible.

Whether you're organizing a team, scaling a business, or sending a rover across solar systems, Smartsheet is a work management platform that helps all those details turn into one big leap.

Smartsheet, work with Flow.

Learn more at smartsheet.com slash Vox.

Support for this show comes from The Economists.

Sometimes knowing how the news gets reported is as important as knowing the news itself.

Insider is a brand new video offering from The Economist that lets you feel like a fly on the wall of their editorial meetings.

With Insider, you can get direct access to the internal debates that shape how The Economists make makes sense of an increasingly complex and turbulent world.

Hear trusted voices debate the biggest global issues with Insider.

Free at launch for all subscribers to The Economist.

Learn more at economist.com slash Insider.

Support for the show comes from Saks Fifth Avenue.

Saks Fifth Avenue makes it easy to holiday your way.

Whether it's finding the right gift or the right outfit, Saks is where you can find everything from a stunning David Earman bracelet for her or a sleek pair of faragama loafers to wear wear to a fancy holiday dinner.

And if you don't know where to start, Saks.com has customized your personal style so you can save time shopping and spend more time just enjoying the holidays.

Make shopping fun and easy this season and find gifts and inspiration to suit your holiday style at Saks Fifth Avenue.

And you know, there are some gay rednecks.

Yes, I understand that.

There's gay everything.

Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara And I'm Scott Galloway.

Scott, guess what I'm doing tonight?

I know what you're doing.

You're interviewing Kamala Harris.

Yeah.

What do you think?

You know, I'm not going to focus.

Honestly, she's answered a lot of questions about Biden.

I want to spin it forward.

I feel like

that's what we should do.

Like, I could ask, she's answered a lot of questions about why she didn't say anything.

And the answers have been okay.

I don't know if I'll get a better answer out of it, but I feel like I should spin it forward, don't you?

What do you think she's going to do next?

I don't know.

I'll be honest with you.

I think she wants to run for president.

That's my impression.

She's still young.

She's, yeah, she is the best known one, right?

Like, no matter how you slice it, she's got the most name recognition.

And a lot of men have failed and tried again, right?

George Bush comes to mind.

Lots of people do.

Joe McCain tried a number of times.

So there's no reason she shouldn't necessarily.

Yeah, there's no reason other than she'd lose for a third time and we wouldn't have a female president for 50 years on the Democratic side.

But other than that, she should have.

I'm just saying she's said she brightens up a room by leaving it and her total political victories have been not making it to Iowa.

Okay.

That said, that was so George Bush like tried it 83 times like, and that was okay.

And then he got to be president.

I'm just saying, like, she was a senator.

She was the AG.

She was the AG.

She's had a lot of big jobs.

I don't know.

You know my view on this.

I'm incredibly luxist.

The only thing I know is the Democrats are going to nominate a white heterosexual male over six feet tall.

Full stop.

That's the only thing I know.

Maybe Wes Moore, maybe Governor Moore.

America seems comfortable with non-whites.

I don't think they're comfortable.

I don't think the, what's weird is I don't think the Democratic Party is comfortable with a gay president, but we'll see.

But it's going to have to be somebody tall.

And, you know, who is, who's very good, who I interviewed or we talked to for Raging Moderates is Governor Pritzker.

He has very comforting dad energy.

He has comforting dad energy.

But, you know, let me just...

point out, and I'm not to put a two-point fine point on it, but you've been spectacularly wrong about political traditions a lot.

oh i'm awful at politics yeah so that's why i'm like i'm awful i don't know i don't there's a there's a there's a real opportunity not necessarily harris i think someone from outside like someone that we don't aren't thinking about right not not someone who's unknown but someone we're not definitely gonna be kamala harris and taylor swift that's it's definitely that's she would be great she knows how to again she knows how to sell records to just beat everybody's record again i i don't have to dwell on it but she could she could do well um uh one of the things was uh you saw the the scare about dolly parton i would like to vote for her um her sister put up something on facebook like she was dying we need prayer warriors and then she had to get up and say

i know but then she had to do a video is like i'm not dead not dead i was like i get the sense the sisters in the will was praying for a different outcome yeah now i think they're very oh that's awful oh that's awful have you been to dollywood i have of course hello what's it like oh i love it i love it i went when my nephew will who i love and his wife lee got married uh they went they had they had gone to vanderbilt um and but then they got married in where's dolly it's in pigeon forge but it's next to a big city in tennessee and so i did go sound like such a cultural elite right no i loved it what are you talking about i did not a cultural elite i went i i was very excited and so i brought all the kids you triggered look at you with your your georgetown sensibility i got i well i i love dolly parton you know i've been to tupelo you have not let me just say i'm a very complex liberal

I love Elvis.

Dolly also unites the country.

But I went and I took all the kids and there's butterflies everywhere, which is wonderful.

But one of the things that struck me, and it's a very good theme park, I have to say, it's really homey.

The food is fantastic.

It's really beautiful.

It's not too big.

You see the coat of many colors, et cetera, et cetera, which is great, the Dolly Museum.

But what I

really struck me, and it was highly noticeable, it was all kinds of different people.

It was the gays, obviously.

The gays were out in force.

Then it was like sort of the rednecks.

They were there too.

Then it was sort of the Christian-y kind of people.

You know, there are some gay rednecks.

Yes, I understand that.

There's gay everything.

And then there was like sort of Christian conservative type of people.

And let me tell you, every- Sounds like America.

It was.

In Dollywood, everyone was getting along.

We're all like Dolly.

It was like so interesting because the minute you step out it changes of dollywood i wish i wish the whole world was dollywood because everyone was getting along everyone liked dolly there was a lot of talking it was the most enjoyable theme park i've ever been to but then i we got out and pigeon forage is a little much it's there's all kinds it's sort of gotten overrun with all kinds of touristy stuff um but my son louis wanted to get a knife and so we went into this store that said the world's biggest knife store on the top of it.

And I missed the end gun part when when I didn't see it.

It was behind the thing.

And we go in and it was a different, it was like people throwing bullets into like bullets and guns and everything into like these carts, like a lot, like a lot of bullets and stuff like that.

And Louis went off and got his, the knife he wanted for cooking.

And, and I'm sitting there watching this woman put like maybe a thousand bullets into.

the cart and i was just curious i'm like why do you why do you buy so many bullets like not you shouldn't buy i wasn't saying that i was like i'm just curious why you're buying so many bullets and she goes it's my right to buy bullets and i said hey you absolutely you should be able to buy as many i'm just curious why why why why you're doing it and she said because antifa was coming it was and then i just was thrown out of dollywood because i was like oh yes of course antifa that's what's happening if someone had been buying a lot of plan b would you have asked them why they were buying i would have so much plan buddy i would why they're buying so many

yeah i do i talk to people in stores on that i think that's passive aggressive but that's just me.

By the way, I like to shoot guns.

I hate to tell you, but I like it.

And I think people should have gun rights.

I just think it should be gun controls, too.

Oh, we're really going off topic.

I'm going to try and save you here.

You mentioned Vanderbilt

as someone who's in the midst of the most manufactured stress in history, college apps for their son.

Parents want to send their kids to college in the South.

They don't want protests.

They don't want wokeness.

They want a pure college experience.

And the southern schools are booming.

Oh, are they?

Interesting.

And public schools because they're a better value.

Yeah.

Well, Vanderbilt is also a beautiful school and a very good school.

Maybe the parents want the non-wokeness, but I think it's because kids love the party.

That's a party school.

All that stuff is going on there.

I think it's not as woke as you think.

It's not as unwoke as you think.

It's really, it feels like you're in the middle of a big city in Nashville.

I love Nashville.

Yeah, so do I.

Yeah.

And also hot chicken.

Go hot chicken.

Anyway, I love Dollywood.

Thank God Dolly is not that sick.

And I'm I'm thrilled for her to live for decades to come.

We've got a lot to get to today, including OpenAI's Cash Fern and Apple's succession plans.

But first, Tesla had people buzzing about an exciting reveal this week, possibly the Roadster that Elon has been teasing for years.

But instead, the company, uh-uh, rolled out a cheaper version of the Model 3 and Model Y.

The new cars run about $5,000 less than the current models with simpler interiors and fewer luxury features like that cool light on the front, that's gone.

The cheaper cars could offset some of the hit Tesla expected to take with the end of the EV tax credit, they're hoping.

But investors seem to be unimpressed so far.

Tesla stock fell 4% after the announcement.

Talk a little bit, Scott, about these cheaper cars, because, you know,

a lot of the things I saw online were like, this is just a shittier car.

And it wasn't very exciting.

And cars are about being excited about the cars, right?

Or maybe not.

I don't know.

The way to summarize it is less for more.

With the end of the tax credit, they couldn't compensate for the end of the tax credit in terms of a

value, a product-to-cost ratio.

The new cars are about $40,000 and $37,000, respectively, or the Model Y and the standard, Model 3, or the Model 3 standard.

They're more expensive than the Model Y premium and Model 3 premium costs just last month because the tax credit expired.

And also, these cars are a significant downgrade.

Essentially, Tesla customers are paying more for less.

This is,

and when you compare that against, I mean,

the market is as it has, if you want to understand what's happening in Tesla, watch the movie Tucker.

There used to be like 50 or 60 automobile companies, and it's consolidating.

Unfortunately, it's consolidating not around American giants, it's consolidating around Chinese giants.

The costs are coming down, and Tesla can't keep up and doesn't have the scale.

GM, Nissan, and Hyundai all offer EV models that are cheaper than Tesla's most inexpensive vehicle.

And in China, the BYD Siegel is now under $8,000.

And even if we

ring-fence

our market,

China has had,

the CCP has had to send a letter to Chinese EV manufacturers and say, please raise prices, because a lot of these

EV companies are seen as national champions for the local jurisdiction and they're being subsidized.

But an $8,000 EV, so the amount of pressure here.

So what you have is, I mean, I don't know if you saw it, but he came up with this.

They're kind of shelving their robot plans, which was their latest attempt to distract people from the fact this is an automobile company, not a SaaS or a AI company.

But the death spiral here continues.

Tesla's market share in the U.S.

dropped to its lowest level since 2017.

Yeah, but that stock keeps flying, right?

It's a meme stock.

I get that.

But how long does that continue when there are really such obvious results here?

I have been wrong about Tesla for a long time, but all I can report is Tesla sales were down 43% year over year in the EU, and they're down 6.3% year-to-date in China.

And although September was a record-setting month for EV sales in the U.S.

because people were trying to get the tax credit,

which helped them a little bit.

Tesla sales were muted, and Tesla sales were only up 7.4% versus Ford had their EV sales granted off a smaller basis or up 20% and GM EVs were up 107%.

Yeah, because of this tax credit expiring, people rushing to get cars.

I thought about getting another, replacing my Kia with another, one of the Kias, actually, which are really nice.

One of the things that you were focusing on the price and everything else and the credit, but one of the things is it's a shittier version of a car and it's not interesting.

I've been looking at more electric cars again because I'm thinking you're going fully electric.

And there's so many cool cars out there, like so much fun, like shopping them a little bit.

And I wouldn't even look at a Tesla because it's, this hasn't changed.

Lots of reasons I don't want to pick money to him, but that's not why.

If it was, if he came up with a delightful car, I'd have a hard time not buying it, right?

Even to him, because I use Amazon and I and Jeff Bezos gives me a fucking headache because it's good, right?

And so I was like, when I look at the BYD cars, just online, I've never actually seen it, I haven't been to Europe in a while and I haven't seen, seen it.

They look delightful.

It's something I would buy if it was available.

I've been in several BYD because I took Ubers all around Brazil when I was in Sao Paulo, and you get in one and you think you're in

your first impression is, oh, you're in the cheap Tesla.

But the cheap Tesla is 30 or 35 grand.

And this thing, this guy told me, I asked him how many Reals it was, $80,000.

That's about $16,000.

You're basically in what feels like kind of the low model Tesla, but

it's for half the price.

And also what I found interesting is that

Tesla, they announced kind of under the cover of dark that they're they're abandoning the plans for producing the Optimus, their transition to AI.

And

earlier in the year, Musk said in an attempt, again, to justify what is just an unsustainable stock price, he said on an earnings call that Tesla would build 10,000 Optimus bots for internal use and that eventually get this, Optimus would make up 80% of Tesla's enterprise value.

He's just making it up.

And by the way, I mean, he's just like throwing shit out there.

There was one at the Tron premiere I saw.

Just like, this is ridiculous.

Well, the thing that kind of triggered it and said, okay, we got to put this thing on hold or basically find a polite exit from this.

The head of Optimus just left the company to be a research scientist in Meta.

And he also confirmed on X that he took a pay cut to do so.

But meanwhile, Tesla stock is up 14% this year.

Yeah, I know.

It's crazy.

If he made a great car, I bet people would buy it, right?

That's one.

Two, the thing that's interesting, even though he goes on and on about robots, is.

his spectrum and a mobile phone, right?

The stuff that Starlink is doing to me is actually

like that.

That's a great product.

It could be a great business.

He could do, he could steal market share from Verizon and the rest.

I mean, to me, that is the boring stuff that he could actually do rather well on.

Or he could make a car that's delightful again or innovative or feels fresh, but he won't do that.

He doesn't want, he's not interested in that at all.

Yeah, I think like he's a brilliant guy and he's trying to reposition the entire thing as AI and a combination of he does have an exceptional product with SpaceX, autonomous driving.

He's got a lot of data.

You know,

he's got Grok.

He just, he's raised, he's about to raise a shit ton of money for that.

I mean, he could try,

you don't, you can never count this guy out.

So, but he's trying to make like this.

He's trying to figure out a way to maintain Tesla's market cap so he can fund his move into AI and this other stuff.

And also, he's raising a lot of money and raising debt because a lot of people just want to be involved with him in hopes that they can either get into SpaceX or into the SpaceX IPO.

And just his name associated with anything takes the value up

tens of billions of dollars.

But there's just no getting around it.

The weak link in all of this is that the company that's worth the most is

overvalued by 10x.

And he keeps coming up with Robovan or

Autonomous Cars or Optimus Robots.

And it's like, please, please look over here.

Don't look at here as I try and pull this dead rabbit out of it.

We should pull up to our tour in a Robovan.

Can't.

They don't exist.

I know that.

We should bring a robot.

We should bring an Optimus robot.

Can you go buy one?

You know what?

I'll just take Xanax.

You'll think it's a robot on stage with you.

Anyway, Elon, make a better something.

Like, stop moving shit around.

He actually just paid off all those Twitter people.

He tried to keep their

salaries after he fired them.

He had to pay.

Of course, he ended up paying everybody back.

Anyway,

moving on,

this story is getting more and more interesting.

Open A has now signed about a $1 trillion in deals this year for computing power, partnering with NVIDIA, Oracle, and others.

This week's massive deal with AMD sent the Chipmaker stock soaring by more than 40%, a crazy, crazy amount of money.

OpenAI's cash burn is probably an estimated $115 billion through 2029.

And the latest valuation puts at $500 billion, making it the world's most valuable private company.

We know that.

Analysts are sounding the alarm about these circular deals.

As we talked about previously,

it it feels very AOL purchase pro circa, you know, the last century, a small network of companies pouring money in each other's coffers, fueling an AI bubble.

They're all waiting to make money.

You know, they're all desperate to make money to back this up.

Now, NVIDIA is also investing in XAI's latest funding round.

They're all sort of propping each other up with the same.

five dollars essentially so talk a little bit about this so people can understand there's all there was there's been some great stories showing all the the interconnections, you know, especially charts.

And it's really quite, it's really quite something.

It's like a, you know, someone called me when I said it was a round tripping.

They're like, that's someone at one of these companies said, that's really rude.

I said, would you prefer I use Circle Jerk?

And they were like, no, stick with round tripping.

So, anyway, there we have it, Circle Jerk.

Your thoughts?

Well, let's just do the math.

If NVIDIA invests $100 billion in Open AI

and with the agreement that they're going to turn around and buy and spend all of that $100 billion on NVIDIA chips,

okay, so

they're trading at $4 trillion.

So it's approximately a 2.5% dilution of the stock price.

So all else being equal, the stock price should go down 2.5%.

That's the cost they're spending.

They're taking 2.5% of their company or they're increasing their dilution by 2.5% for that $100 billion to invest in OpenAI.

That money comes right back in the form of chip purchases.

The average, the operating margin on

the GPUs that NVIDIA sells is about 55 points.

So that creates $55 billion

in

incremental earnings or profits.

The company trades at about a PE of about 33.

So loosely speaking, that's about 1 point

That's about $1.8 trillion increase in market cap.

So $1.8 trillion increase in market cap off of a $100 billion investment is a a 1,700% return.

The problem is, so theoretically,

it's a wildly accretive thing to do.

But all you're doing is, I remember we were doing this in the late 90s.

We were buying software from all the other startups we worked with backed by the companies who had backed us.

And then when the music stops,

it's not like the music stops and they take away one share.

When the music stops and one share gets taken away, a dozen shares get taken away because everything just accelerates downward so these deals uh we've talked about it these deals feel very late stage bubble can i ask you i saw ken griffin talking who is seems like a grumpy fella um but he was quite smart guy like that's what i'm saying but he was talking about gold you know the price of gold we're going to talk about gold in a second but he was discussing this he's like this is a real problem the frothiness around tech stocks and that they're holding up the whole things and he and many others are predicting this sort sort of market collapse.

I think they're not even using downturn.

They're like collapse kind of thing.

And sometimes I believe those things, but he has such a cogent argument about it.

How do you look at that?

Well, I'll give you a thesis and I'll tell you what I'm doing as opposed to offering financial advice.

First off, just some caveats.

When the experts are the most knowledgeable people are all convinced about something happening, I forget the name of the effect, but it almost, it usually doesn't happen.

Like experts on average, when experts have consensus, it's usually wrong.

And if you look at the arc of the growth of Open AI, it's kind of mimicking what happened in Netscape, and it's at a point where it's still two years away from the bubble bursting.

So like I said, the economists called the dot-com implosion perfectly, but they called it in 1997 before those stocks went up another 30 or 40 percent.

So do we know they're going to come down?

Yeah, the hard part is figuring out when they're going to come down and if they're going to they're if they're going to scream to new highs.

Now, what I see is effectively America right now is a giant bet on AI

because 40%,

let me just get political here.

If the S ⁇ P had been down 23% instead of up 23%,

there's no fucking way, in my view, Trump would have the cloud cover to send troops into Portland.

If he was totally distracted with, okay, shithead, you get into office and all of a sudden the market goes down, loses a quarter of its value.

He would be putting out fires and not have the cloud cover to start raiding Home Depots.

So essentially,

the bet on AI, the extraordinary evaluations of AI, the acceleration of these 10 stocks, which are responsible for 70% of the uptick in the S ⁇ P, are enabling Trump's behavior.

I think AI.

and the market valuations of AI are the reason that Trump has the cloud cover to move towards fascism.

Yeah, of course.

And there they were front row getting all the gimmickies,

the lack of guardrails, the money, the cryptocurrency.

They got all their stuff, and here they are helping him.

Well, and then he shows up and says, okay,

I'll pass AI legislation where you can suck value from the 490 of the SP that aren't you.

The tariffs don't impact you.

They probably help you because you can get talent.

Who the fuck?

What graduate of the Ross School, which is an amazing business school in Michigan, is going to go to work for Ford if they have an offer from Google or Meta or Broadcom right now.

And

you have some of the smartest people in the world.

Warren Buffett is selling like a maniac.

So, what I'm doing is, and I've been doing it for a long time, I have been buying European and Latin American stocks, and I am now contemplating, I'm trying to find an ETF and a way to go short the Magnificent 10.

I just, and by the way, I might,

there's a great saying, the market's going to stay irrational longer than explain what you mean, short the the magnificent 10.

Tell people what you're doing so people understand.

Because they're here for our business app, Gimmin.

Well, you are, there are now ETFs, and what they do is they go out and

they sell covered calls against those 10 companies, meaning they think that they take a premium.

And if the stocks don't go up, they get to hold on to that premium.

And they do it across the magnificent 10.

They're basically, you can invest in vehicles that are betting on the magnificent 10 going down.

But just a point of caution here.

You do not want to invest more than you are willing to lose all of it.

I'm doing it as a hedging strategy because I think if these 10 companies unwind, literally every company in the world is likely going to go down.

Because in the 80s, there was some incredible academic research that showed that you get a risk-adjusted free return and upside based on diversification.

And so everyone believed that and everyone started diversifying like crazy, meaning that if an iron ore company in Australia goes down in value, the people who own that iron ore company will probably have to sell Japanese stock.

So everything's sort of interconnected now.

And when you have 10 companies responsible for 40% of the SP's value and the SP makes up 50% of the total world's value, you have 10 companies responsible for 20%

of the entire valuation of public equities globally, meaning that is the string that if it gets pulled,

you know, everything, everything.

What pulls it then?

It's, in my opinion, everybody just goes, what?

It's that MIT study, which was not great research, but there was an MIT study that you could poke holes in, but it was, I think, directionally correct, showing that 95% of companies, when surveyed, said they are not yet getting the ROI they'd hoped based on these extraordinary expenditures and site licenses with LLMs.

So everybody has signed big agreements with Anthropic,

with OpenAI.

They have purchased chips to try and build their own things.

And so far, they're excited about it.

They see a lot of potential, but they're not seeing the ROI.

And if all of a sudden a bunch of big companies all of a sudden come out and say we're scaling back our investments in AI because it's not showing the ROI, and NVIDIA throws up and goes down 20 or 30% in one day, you could see just an unwinding very so NVIDIA is the domino.

Well, NVIDIA most likely, Kara, because the thing about Open AI is they're private, so they don't have to announce that they threw up their earnings and you don't see the stock go down 30% in one day.

I see.

Okay.

This is where it pays to be a private company.

So, you know, Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, all these guys, Palantir,

if Palantir went down 70% in two weeks, we would say, well, of course it did.

Yeah, right.

It still wouldn't look cheap.

Now, but

the company that probably creates almost like a global, a real, a real slowdown.

And we're very vulnerable right now because there's indications that we are seeing a weak job market while inflation is persistent, which is the S-word stagflation.

But the company, you never know.

It's almost impossible by virtue of saying it's NVIDIA

that is the epicenter of the earthquake here.

It probably won't be NVIDIA.

When this shit happens, it usually starts in a place you didn't expect it.

But it's definitely feeling like, you know, NASA em talbed the notion of anti-fragility.

We have way too,

let me finish where I started.

America right now is a giant bet on AI.

Everything, whether it's Trump's policy.

All in, as those idiots say.

Whether it's Trump having cloud cover to make the aggressive moves he's making, whether it's the fact that we can impose ridiculously stupid tariffs and the economy still is not

gone into a coma, it's because of the massive amount of capital chasing returns and momentum in 10 stocks right now.

Everybody, head for the hills.

And speaking of which, gold.

Okay, Scott, we're going to take a quick break and come back.

Why investors are going for gold?

Support for this show comes from Vanta.

Here are a few things that are probably essential to your company's survival in the modern world.

Internet access, a tax ID, a great snack pantry.

Well, here's something else that's essential.

Trust.

In today's fast-changing digital world, proving your company is trustworthy isn't just important for growth, it's essential.

That's why Vanta is here.

Vanta helps companies of all sizes get compliant fast and stay that way with industry-leading AI, automation, and continuous monitoring.

So whether you're a startup tackling your first SOC2 or ISO 27001, or you're an enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta's trust management platform makes it quicker, easier, and more scalable.

Vanta also helps you complete security questionnaires up to five times faster so you can win bigger deals sooner.

The results, according to a recent IDC study, Vanta customers slash slash over $500,000 a year in costs and are three times more productive.

Establishing trust isn't optional.

Vanta makes it automatic.

Visit Vanta.com slash pivot to sign up for a free demo today.

That's vanta.com slash pivot.

Support for this show comes from Smartsheet.

You know that frustrating feeling when you're getting really into the flow of a work task, but when you hear a little ping of a message notification, you then switch your your screen, then you open a new application, then check the message, then click on the link in the message.

Whoops, that opened a new application and your flow is totally broken.

Well, you're definitely not alone here.

On average, this toggling between tasks and application adds up to about 9% of time spent working each year.

That's five whole work weeks.

This distracting task switching is what Harvard Business Review called toggling tax and increases stress hormones, decreases focus, and makes it impossible to tap into a state of flow.

That's where Smartsheet comes in.

Smartsheet is the work management software where you and your team can plan, track, and deliver their best work without toggling back and forth between multiple applications.

Imagine that you could do with those extra five work weeks if your work happened all in one place.

Smartsheet, work with flow, visit smartsheet.com slash fox today to learn more.

Support for Pivot comes from LinkedIn Jobs.

As a small business owner, your work hours aren't dictated by the hands on a clock.

Your business is on your mind 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do.

That hiring partner is LinkedIn Jobs.

When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in by making it easy to post your job, share it with your network, and qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place.

LinkedIn's new feature can help you write job descriptions and quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights.

Either post your job for free or pay to promote as promoted jobs get three times more qualified applicants.

At the end of the day, LinkedIn wants you to feel confident that you're getting the best because the most important thing to your small business is the quality of candidates.

And based on LinkedIn data, 72% of small business owners using LinkedIn say that the platform helps them find high quality candidates.

Plus, you can let your network know you're hiring by adding the hashtag hiring frame to your profile picture to get two times more qualified candidates.

Find out why more than 2.5 million small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today.

Find your next great hire on LinkedIn.

Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash pivot.

That's linkedin.com slash pivot to post your job for free.

Terms and conditions apply.

Scott, we're back in our very business-focused show today.

The price of gold soared past $4,000 for the first time this week.

Prices are up more than 50% since the beginning of the year.

Gold traditionally climbs during periods of uncertainty, and it's currently on track for its best year since since 1979.

That's a long time ago.

What were you doing in 1979?

How old was I?

I was still in high school.

This latest rally kicked off right as the government shutdown began.

Up and up since Trump announced his Liberation Day terrorists back in April, obviously.

Are you going for the gold, Scott?

Are you wearing a gold belt right now, like in Billions, where you have a little gold, a little gold doubloons, et cetera?

Ray Dalio said this week that people should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold.

Thoughts?

Thoughts about gold?

Gold is best?

The first crush I ever had, and the first woman I ever remember registering as pretty, was a woman named Carson Evans.

And her and her husband, Charlie, he owned a printing company, were the first people I ever observed were rich.

They used to have big parties where people would drink, and they lived up in the hills, and they'd hire these bands.

And I thought, these people are so cool.

And Carson was just beautiful.

And her husband, Charlie, I was going to go to work for his company after high school because I didn't think I was going to go to college.

And really good man, my godfather, and his company went out of business, very depressed.

She told me he was leaving him.

And

he went into his room and killed, or went in the garage and killed himself.

Anyways, that's not the moral of the story.

She was a very,

she was, I'm going to come back to gold.

Okay.

She was a very good friend of my mom.

And when my mom was dying out of nowhere, she was by this time a raging alcoholic in her 70s, addicted to opiates because of bad.

Is it going to get better?

Okay.

All right.

It ends on a funny note.

She'd become addicted to opiates and Johnny Walker black because of the back pain she was from failed surgeries.

She showed up.

She called me and said, I'm going to come take care of your mom.

And I'm like, we're fine.

I didn't want an alcoholic there.

A canary yellow Corvette shows up with a dog and 12 bottles of Johnny Walker.

And she's like, I'm here.

And every night she would make hot pockets for us and keep my mom company.

And

anyway, so my mom, my mom passes.

Carson goes back to San Diego.

Carson dies four years later, and I get a call from a lawyer in San Diego saying you're the sole beneficiary of Carson Evans.

What?

Yeah, she left me everything.

Everything wasn't a lot, but she had no friends.

She had no kids.

Oh, God.

So

one of the things I inherited.

This is something I did not.

This is, my mind is being blown right now.

You had like Jennifer Coolidge as your godmother, essentially, right?

You know what?

That's a really, actually, that's the most apt analogy I would have ever used to describe Carson.

Yeah.

A drunk, a really drunk Jennifer Coolidge.

Okay.

So

my dad, I said to my dad, I said, go down there, find out what there is or anything.

Neighbors I had a funeral for, three people showed up.

Oh, no.

And yeah, and one of them, one of them was, one of them was the maintenance guy who she was filling around with.

But anyway.

I walked in on her topless, filling around with a maintenance guy when she was taking care of my mom.

And I still, that's like, still starching in my memory.

Anyways, so you'll listen to the moment I inherited

she had a safe no money nothing but she had a safe so we had to hire people to come out and drill open the safe and in the safe what I saw something that I used to see her wear all the time and it was this massive gold belt that had Indian Indian head five dollar gold coins it was a belt with 12 gold coins on it

And these gold coins, I guess, this is the only gold I've ever owned, were worth like three, five, or $10,000 each.

And at one point, gold soared and my closest friend was going through a divorce.

And I'd hid the gold coins, the belt, because I didn't know what to do with this thing.

And my oldest friend from home was going through a divorce.

And I had just sold my home in the Hamptons.

This story is getting douchey and douchey.

And so I shipped him all the furniture because he was going through a divorce.

I'm like, I don't need this furniture.

You can have it.

And then about two years later, gold spikes.

And I figured that, and I didn't have a lot of money.

I just started at NYU.

And I'm like, I could really use that money.

And I thought, and Indian goldheads were going for like $18,000.

So I'm like, I have a $200,000 belt.

I racked my home

looking for this fucking belt.

And then about six months later, my friend calls and he goes, oh, by the way, he goes, my youngest son, Nick, has been wearing this cool costume jewelry Halloween belt you have.

I'm like, what are you talking about?

And he's like, yeah, we found it in the drawer.

He wears it to school every day because he thinks it makes him look like a rapper.

Oh, my God.

So two years later, later, I found out that my friend's 13-year-old was wearing a $200,000 belt to school every day because he thought it made him look like Snoop Dogg.

I can't believe this.

He would wear it around his neck.

Where's the belt?

Where's the belt?

He would wear it around his neck.

Where is the weather?

He would wear it around his neck.

And so anyways, anyways, got it back, gave three of the gold coins to this girl next door who used to go and get Carson her prescription drugs.

And then we still have the other nine.

But anyways.

You still have the belt?

No, I just, I didn't.

It's not the belt it's the nine indian head gold where are they gold coins you have no i i just got very insecure again because again i can't remember oh my god god anyways you need to wear that belt to our goal but every time i think of that belt i think of this woman who you this woman literally in 1979

was the toast of the town and then wasn't

and then but and and then like 25 years was addicted to painkillers and an alcoholic

and and broke Wow.

Okay.

Anyways.

Gold is best.

Gold.

Gold.

Gold.

Anyways, let's talk about.

I think we're going to stop now.

Get into that walk down memory lane.

Oh, my God.

Oh, my God.

Scott, I was fascinated by that.

I thought at first, oh, my God, he needs to stop.

And then I was like, I want an old, I want, I need you to find the belt now.

Okay.

I like my Bitcoin.

You like my Bitcoin that's missing, wherever it is.

You need to find the same thing.

Mine's on a hard drive.

That's the whole story.

Okay, so I'll bring us back to gold.

The bottom line is the run-up in gold is essentially an indictment against the U.S.

because gold is sold.

Also, dollars.

Everyone's going into.

That's what Griffin was saying.

They're going into everything but dollars, right?

So people no longer have as much faith in the dollar and they no longer typically when there's kind of a risk on trade or you want something that might endure inflation or some sort of risk, there's just so much, it feels like there's so much risk everywhere.

You go into treasuries.

And people are even losing confidence in treasuries.

And that's foreign central banks are moving into gold because they no longer consider U.S.

debt a safe asset.

And per your comments last week, Citadel's Ken Griffin said investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar, which is obviously really concerning because what people don't appreciate is, well, whenever there's tumult in the world or danger, the presidents typically the first question they ask is, where are our carriers?

The most powerful carrier strike force in history that's invisible is the U.S.

dollar because very few companies, very few countries can transact a lot of business without going through US dollars.

So we get to see everything.

Our sanctions have teeth.

We can, the economic firepower we have because the dollar is the default currency.

Now, fortunately, nothing looks like it's rivaling it, but the fact that gold's above $4,000, it doesn't speak well.

Bitcoin's up.

All the other alternates, he call them dollar alternates, Griffin called them.

By the way, I did just say that.

about 10 minutes ago and it's because that story was so long.

You forgot I didn't say it last week.

Anyway, I love that story.

Can I ask one,

I need you to answer this briefly.

Where's the fucking Corvette?

Oh,

I don't know what happened to the vet.

I think she sold it.

Yeah.

Okay.

For drugs.

No,

Carson is a cautionary tale for me.

Took care of my mom.

I checked in on her only a few times.

And I remember thinking at her funeral, like this woman who was taking care of my mom, and I couldn't find the time to go visit her.

Oh, don't, don't.

Don't.

Yeah.

Total lack of character.

We're going to move along.

We're going to move on.

That's a great story.

Carson, here's the fucking Carson.

How's that?

Here's the Carson Evans.

Here's the Carson Evans.

We're moving on from gold, since gold is best.

People go look gold is best and Apple up and you'll laugh your ass off.

Tim Cook may step down as Apple CEO in the near future and clear frontrunner for his replacement is emerging hardware engineering chief, John Turnas.

Turnes has already been in the Apple spotlight unveiling new Macs and iPads in the past.

He's 50 years old, really interesting guy, the same age as Cook was when he took the role and has a strong technology background as opposed to operations or sales.

There was the guy who left, just recently left, was thought to be the CEO.

I think it's Jeff Williams, was supposed to be the CEO, but now it looks like this guy.

Talk about the shifting over this.

I think they'll probably do a very smooth transition at Apple.

I don't think it'll be sort of ugly like many, many others, like Disney or whatever.

Not ugly, but just slow or confusing as many companies when they do these transitions.

I suspect they'll do it pretty smoothly.

The thing that I'm sort of shocked by is that Cook has been so acquiescent to Trump if he's leaving.

Like, what does does he have to lose to have some dignity?

But go ahead.

Well, Apple is arguably, I mean, Filco just consistently for the last 20 or 30 years has been the best run,

you know, best run company in the world.

And kudos to Cook, by the way.

Everyone thought it was going to fall apart when Jobs died and he's made it bigger and better.

And it was $300 billion when he took over and now it's $3.5 trillion.

And look,

there's a real, the biggest lesson people can take away from Apple specifically right now, and it's a really important lesson that our elected leaders and Bob Iger need to learn: fucking leave.

Leave.

You are too fucking old.

Leave.

Two-thirds of Congress will be dead in 25 years because they're so fucking old.

You really think they're worried about debt or climate change?

No, they're not.

You really think a 74-year-old Bob Iger can read the room right now?

Yeah.

Leave.

Tim Cook added more shareholder value than any individual in history with the exception of Jensen Huang.

He's 64, and you know what he's doing?

He's realizing it's probably time

for someone else.

And if you were to,

and I know I say this a lot, but if you were to reverse engineer the world's biggest problems, they reverse engineer it to some dude who won't fucking leave,

some guy who won't get out of the way.

Cook does not strike me as that person.

That's my point.

Kudos to him.

Yeah.

Kudos to him.

He has nothing left to approve or accomplish.

He should go watch Bama games or whatever he does and have documentaries made about him and go to film festivals and have sex with much younger men and just

enjoy himself.

Yeah.

Yeah, I agree.

He could be on the board.

Take too.

Follow his lead, Congress.

Follow his lead.

How old is he?

He's 64.

Yeah, he's not old.

He's not that.

He actually is incredibly fit, too.

You're right.

You're right.

He's in great shape.

He's in great shape.

He's with it.

He's done a great job.

Some missteps.

Humble here and and there's a nice

everything granted probably produced the most dangerous device in the world but look kudos to him i love i love that this guy is saying okay it's time to let someone else take over very well run company yeah he's got a lot of choices there what's interesting about apple and i remember when uh i think i've said this where when walt retired they had a little surprise party for him um at at one of the events uh cook and eddie q and the whole gang of them um and I have to say, I was really, sometimes I think when people all stay together for a long time, that sucks too.

But I thought this group of people, they kind of reminded me of the Rolling Stones.

They like kind of kept going pretty well for a long time.

And the fact that they've injected this new guy, who is a relatively new guy, I never met him, John Turnus,

into the equation without having to go to one of the older guys is kind of great, actually.

You know, I'm sure he's been there a while.

I don't know much about him, but

it's not one of the ones right below Cook, right?

That's the natural thing a lot of people do.

And so, you know, they should really, you're right.

Disney should do it.

Interestingly enough, Dana Walden was the one people think is going to do possibly hurt by the Jimmy Kimmel thing, but Kimmel just said she was great just publicly.

So these things should all just happen.

Like there's never a good time to leave, right?

Presumably.

I mean, you're a board member.

What's the problem?

What's the biggest just ego?

What do you put it at?

This is the problem.

And I'm virtually singling or patting myself on the back.

I always have a self-imposed term limit of four years on boards.

I always leave after four years.

Exactly.

Okay.

One, because I want to do a variety of things because I'm going to be dead soon.

And I need to shift stuff off my plate regularly to put more stuff on.

But also, this is what happens when you're on a board.

You start vacationing with Bob and Willow.

Oh, yeah.

And you find out they're really lovely people and you just want them to win and you like them personally.

And even though you've decided, okay, Bob, you've made some really bad decisions and you're 74.

Maybe we should give that parks guy or gal a chance.

You don't because you're on the board and you play golf with them and you like them and they're nice and you start making excuses for them.

And guess what?

Every CEO I've met is effectively not the fraternity president or the sorority president, but definitely the fraternity or sorority rush chairman and that they are really, really likable.

Because how you get to be CEO is not only being outstanding, but by creating a lack of enemies because you are so fucking likable

and everyone on the board or they're scared of you that's the there's another version of a ceo that's scared of you well that's that's more the musk or you get paid off like the musk things also they pay these board members but good boards are meant to be

i mean one of the first things i demand in every board is executive session where you and ceos hate this and good boards do this where for at least 15 or 30 minutes at the end of the board meeting the ceo leaves the room and you talk about how the CEO is doing, and then you have the chairman give them feedback.

And what bad boards do, and I've seen this in Fortune 500 companies, is they don't do it because, oh, the CEO is doing such a great job.

And

they all get paid off and they all start and they all want to be on other boards.

And before you know it, they are totally co-opted.

And there's usually two board meetings.

There's usually a board meeting, the official board meeting, and then what I call the real board meeting.

And that is the two or three people that have power on the board.

It's usually the biggest shareholders and the person, the the one person everyone kind of respects on the board.

And they meet in the parking lot after, and they start saying, I'm worried about Bob.

I'm not sure he's the right guy.

And that's the beginning of the end when it happens.

But people in boards typically don't like, and not only that, good boards have shareholders on the board, not just their buddies.

But look at, look at, you know, a little like a president who doesn't want to leave, requiring the vice president to go in and say leave, which is vaguely traitorous.

Anyway, just thinking.

Yeah, there's a, there's a real lesson in this, and that is, and I, you know,

you want, you want to surround yourself with people.

This is why I think kids are so valuable or teenagers.

You have to have people in your life that go on a regular basis, that's just fucking stupid.

You're wrong.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You're wrong.

Stop it.

You're wrong.

And if you don't have those people in your life,

if you don't have people saying that to you, it means you have the wrong friends or you have

or your family is scared of you because nobody, I don't care who you are, it is really hard to read the label from it depends on who they are.

I will say, Bob Ider does seek out people who don't agree with him.

I have spoken to him, like you know what I mean.

I don't, yeah, he does, he does, he does, and he doesn't

shy from it.

So, maybe he will in that case.

But, Tim Cook, good for you.

Um, we do have to move on, though.

Scott, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, we'll talk about major banks wanting a role in the IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Support for the show comes from PipeDrive.

I spent plenty of hours speaking to entrepreneurs, and the one issue that always seems to pop up, they struggle with their sales process.

It's all too common to jump between back-and-forth emails, scattered notes, and forgotten follow-ups, and spending more time chasing paperwork than actually closing.

That's where PipeDrive comes in.

PipeDrive is a top-rated CRM tool for small to medium businesses.

With PipeDrive, sales teams are quick to close deals at a much faster rate.

The visual sales pipeline shows you where every deal is, what stage it's in, and what needs to happen next, all in one dashboard.

Plus, PipeDrive lets you automate your follow-ups so no leads slip through the cracks, and its AI features can analyze your sales process to take your business to the next level.

It's a powerful yet simple CRM built by salespeople for salespeople.

Join the over 100,000 companies already using PipeDrive.

Right now, when you use my link, you'll get a 30-day free trial.

No credit card or payment needed.

Just head to pipedrive.com slash pivot to get started.

That's pipeedrive.com/slash slash pivot and you can be up and running in minutes.

I need a job with a steady paycheck.

I need a job that offers health care on day one for me and my kids.

I want a job where I can get certified in technical roles like robotics or software engineering.

In communities across the country, hourly Amazon employees earn an average of over $23 an hour with opportunities to grow their skills and their paycheck by enrolling in free skills training programs and apprenticeships.

Learn more at aboutamazon.com.

The world is changing faster than ever.

Now, with The Economist Insider, a new premium video offering, we're giving you unprecedented access to the debates shaping our world.

I have sat around that table at NATO.

There is an incoming missile attack now.

Could you answer the question?

I'm sorry, we've got very little time now.

With a few surprises along the way.

I can't promise we'll have a cocktail every time, but we'll try.

So, don't just be an economist reader.

Get on the inside track with The Economist Insider.

Go to economist.com to join the conversation.

Scott, we're back with more news.

Major banks are schmoozing with the Trump administration for a role.

Of course, they are.

For a role, as you noted last week, how do you work with the White House?

For a role of the IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, CEOs of the country's six largest banks have made visits to the White House in an attempt to become the favorite.

All six banks are expected to play a part, but all are pushing to have the two lead roles.

The administration is looking for an IPO combined value of $500 billion, raising roughly $30 billion, which could make it the largest IPO offering in history.

What is this is like another big payoff this time for the banks versus tech companies, correct?

Yeah, it's the reason why Jamie Dimon, who I think is a leader, or David Solomon, who I also think is a great CEO,

are less inclined to speak their mind and say the Fed needs to be independent, although they have said that, or these tariffs make no fucking sense because they're all hoping to get a part of that underwriting fee for this.

First off, this shouldn't happen.

Anything like this where the government has input, which it probably shouldn't, he should recuse himself from the decision and have a panel of thoughtful, smart people who say,

what is the best syndicate?

And the reality is the syndicate for an offering like this should be just everyone because they want to get as much distribution as possible and then competitively bid it out to try and get get the lowest fees possible.

But instead, like TikTok and everything else, he's going to decide who are his political allies and who will say things and show up to the White House.

And Jamie, will you say nice things about me?

Because if these guys come out and actually say, I don't know, I'm worried about stagflation and these policies don't make any sense.

Which Diamond has been doing compared to others more.

I think Jamie, to his credit, has been a leader on this.

And

also, I think Jamie right now, he has a lot of power and he's also very powerful.

In addition, the banks are rocketing right now because of this MA Lollapalooza because of a lack of FTC oversight and these incredible.

Do you have any insight of who's going to get the two

lead roles?

Oh,

it'll be the big guys.

It'll be JP Morgan, Goldman.

It'll be everybody.

I don't know who the book runner will be.

Right.

They're all going to be in it, but there's two lead roles.

I got to think it's going to.

He's not sitting.

It's two of three.

It's the two.

I don't know who the two are.

I know who among.

It'll either be JP Morgan, Goldman, or Morgan Stanley because

Trump is very brand sensitive.

And also, these companies have the largest networks and probably the best research, and they're probably the most capable.

But this will end up being a syndicate for everyone because it'll be such a massive offering.

But the whole thing, the president shouldn't be influencing these decisions because it creates an unfair market and it creates an ecosystem that withers away and erodes democracy.

Smells like TikTok.

Smells like TikTok.

The downside to autocracy is you punish your enemies.

The flip side is, and just as important to autocracy, is over-rewarding your allies.

And the problem is, if you're not in the president's ear every day, you're just a small or medium-sized business, which is responsible for two-thirds of the job creation, those companies suffer and the economy suffers.

So you're not supposed to, the president shouldn't be, the president, not even a cabinet-level decision should be involved in this.

It should be, it should be an independent committee of really smart people that that includes bankers, but don't have a vested interest or own shares in these companies, picking who the syndicate is.

Yep.

Well, there you have it.

Really briefly, 500 National Guard members are currently in Chicago, despite a lawsuit challenging their deployment to the city.

They're outside the city.

Apparently, President Trump has said several times a week that he would invoke the Insurrection Act if necessary.

The federal law from

1807 grants the president powers to deploy the military domestically and to federalize national troops, but only in certain cases.

I think it was used during the riots in L.A.

last time, I believe.

President Trump also took to Truth Socialist Week to further attack the city, saying Governor J.B.

Pritzker, who you just had on Scott, and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson should be in jail for failing to protect ICE.

58% of Americans, including half of the Republicans, think armed troops should only be sent for external threats.

What is, this just goes on.

And then there's these photos from Portland where people dressed as

fraud.

I mean, as dinosaurs.

Dinosaurs and frauds.

Like, you know,

it's crazy.

And then you have, you know, Christy Noam doing cosplaying.

Like, talk about Ice Barbie.

Like, what is she doing?

Like, what do you think about this?

Nobody likes this.

On any spectrum, it's sort of organically hateful for everybody, what's happening.

I don't know, very briefly, from a marketing point of view, Scott.

I mean, just a couple of observations.

I think we're going to look back on this era and we're going to be all, even those of us who think we liked it, that we're somehow we understand what's happening to us, we're going to just be horrified when we realize how much much mind control, profit-sinking people who aren't concerned with the well-being of our emotional and financial health, how much influence and how far they have taken us to really ugly places.

We'll be embarrassed.

And when I go online and I see all of these images around these horrible images of what's happening in ICE RAIDs, I feel so bad about America.

Yep, you said that.

And the rest of the world looks at us and goes, wow.

And also, they say they're distracted.

Let's fly attack drones over Estonia.

And it's bad for the brand.

It takes our eyes off of real problems.

It's really dividing America.

I mean, it's like liberal cities, you know, versus the federal government.

And not only that, it's incredibly fraught with risk.

What happens if someone loses it and starts firing on these troops?

They are.

Or opposite, the troops start firing on them.

Or the troops start firing.

That's just a more likely situation.

It's just not.

And also, it totally feeds into the juice, the mojo, the the creatine of fascism, and that is that the enemy is within.

I don't think everybody, it doesn't divide us.

It's the Trump administration doing this.

I don't, I have not run into anyone who, including conservatives, who thinks it's a good thing.

Like nobody, nobody, except for the occasional Fox person who's like, cities are crazy war grounds, which are so ridiculous.

People have never been to cities.

So I just, I think polling shows that most people

largely do not like this.

Everybody.

I think there's actually, actually, Kara, I think there's an uncomfortable number of people who are angry and have been convinced by Fox and Trump that

these immigrants are disproportionately criminal and that they've hurt their economic well-being and that these Democratic, these cities are so poorly run by virtue signaling Democrats that

they don't like it, but they're willing to tolerate it.

Would you have thought?

I have a lot of concerns.

They don't like it.

Nobody likes likes the troops and cities like that I have encountered among my conservatives.

We're tolerating it.

Certainly.

But that's different than thinking.

I don't think it's a,

I just have this feeling, people, this is of the many things like, look, what set people off?

Jimmy Kimmel, right?

The Jimmy Kimmel thing.

What a surprise.

This stuff sets people off, too.

It's like a look.

It's like, no.

But look at the polling.

We have some actual data here.

New polling on these deployments revealed that 47% of those surveyed oppose the deployments in D.C., 46 oppose a deployment to Memphis, 49 opposed a deployment of the National Guard to cities for law enforcement, 52 oppose deployments to their local area.

See, to me,

only half of people oppose deployment.

Only half of people are paying attention.

I don't think those people are vehement.

I guess what I'm saying is I don't think they're vehement.

I think they're passive.

Right.

That's the difference.

Anyway, we'll see.

We'll see what happens here.

You're right.

The issue is there is going to be someone's going to, sooner or later, someone's going to lose an eye, like that expression.

Well, okay, let me let me back up.

If there are organizations cooperating with ICE, right?

There are companies from ATT to Halentir cooperating.

The outrage and the pushback, the red line, if someone had said, okay,

the masked,

basically a mass

secret police force at the behest of the president is going into predominantly democratically run cities and in masks

incarcerating and terrorizing

some people who've been here for 10 and 20 years, and a small but non-zero number of people are actually citizens, and

creating a sense of fear and terror in the homeland.

Or

a late-night talk show host gets canceled for saying something innocuous about Charlie Kirk, which one is going to trigger the red line?

I wouldn't have thought it was Kimmel.

I would have thought it had been this.

I guess the question is, what can we do about it?

I think it's because it's a slow burn.

I think this is like, look,

in the 60s, it was a much slower burn.

It felt like it wasn't a slow burn.

We were children at the time, but I think it took Kent State.

It took a number of things.

The same thing with civil rights.

It took that bridge.

It took those images.

Like it takes a thing.

Unfortunately, it's often a violent thing.

And so to me, the crossing line will be if the troops start shooting people and killing people.

Like, right?

And I think it's a much slower burn on something like this.

Like, I think it's a much slower, but we'll see.

I don't think I'm speaking out of school because this person called me, but a lot of people are running for president right now.

And I said to this individual, like, okay, you're, you're running for, let's call this what it is.

You're running for president.

Well, I'm just keeping my, okay, just stop it.

You're running for president.

And the person ultimately came to, And I can never tell when people ask me for advice, if they want my brain or they just want access to you or to the podcast, but it doesn't matter.

They asked me for my advice or money.

Fair enough.

Thank you for that.

And I said, in my opinion, the smartest thing you could do to be elected president right now would be to get arrested.

Yeah.

Whatever high-profile governor gets arrested first, has a moment to say, I'm sorry, I'm just not putting up with this, and gets arrested, I think that person jumps to the head of the police.

I like it.

I like it.

Should we get arrested?

I've never been arrested of you.

I have twice.

Twice?

Very briefly i will tell it once i was riding my moped they pulled me over you in vegas yeah no not in vegas in dc uh i was arrested uh i was i'll tell just tell one of them i was riding my moped back from something i got pulled over and at the time dc was undergoing a lot of drug issues around um crack and so a lot of apparently dealers were on mopeds and so they pulled me over oh yeah you look like a i know so they pulled me over and i was like what like i didn't like and then they wanted to look in my things i'm like dealer dealer in the wizard of oz yes exactly and i said you can't look at my stuff you can't you don't i don't there's no cost

it's just because it's a moped i'm like a college student i was at the washington post at the time and and they pulled they i was like you can't look at my thing i won't open it and so they said uh can you turn around and i just i turned around and then they cuffed me and they because i refused to let them look inside you know the seat of the moped has stuff in it like i wouldn't open it and they um they put me in one of of those patty wagons and I was like flying around the patty wagon.

They take, it was the park police, too, who arrested me, I think.

And then, so I, or maybe it was so Secret Service.

I don't know.

I was way over in Haynes Point.

They stuck me in a cell.

They charged, they put me to the wall.

They took my belt, my, my, my shoelaces.

I'm like, I'm committing suicide over this.

I was such a ridiculous.

I should have been, I would, and today I shouldn't behave like that, but I was a kid.

And so I was super rude.

And,

and, and my friend Renee Sanchez, who's now, who's the editor of the St.

Paul or the Minneapolis paper and now is doing this amazing thing in Louisiana, he and I were interns together.

And he came at the post and he came and got me and just laughed his ass off.

I didn't have anyone else to call, you know.

Anyway, that was it.

And I was arrested.

Oh, I was arrested for making out in a public park as a lesbian.

I'm not going to go into that.

Oh, my God.

I know.

I fell asleep.

It was a decent exposure.

Tell me more.

I was somewhat naked.

Tell me more.

I was somewhat naked in a public park and fell asleep at night making out with a girl.

And

they let me off.

Let's just say.

I just got to say, I knew I was partners with you for a reason.

I knew.

I fell.

You literally, I didn't think you could command any more respect from me.

I was wrong.

I was wrong.

I forgot about that.

That was bad.

You got arrested?

Yeah, because I was making out with a girl and we were naked.

That's awesome.

That is odd.

Hold up.

You're my queen.

You're my queen.

Well, they let us off of the war.

They did.

They're like, put on you.

Like, it was close.

It was an interview.

Did someone have to come?

I've had, I'm the guy that gets people out of prison.

I know, I know.

I'm

lucky, excited to get that call.

But can I just tell you at the time, it was bad to be, you know, it was like scary to be found out as a lesbian at the time.

By the way, it was International Lesbian Day on Wednesday, and I still haven't gotten my flowers from you, but that's okay.

No problem.

Well, that's because I I take the day off to pray and listen to Melissa.

All right.

You made me tell a story I really didn't want to tell.

Okay.

We're going to move on for a quick break.

We'll be back.

Oh my god.

I know.

I'll tell you.

That is a new spin on my story.

I know.

You know what?

When you come to D.C., I'll show you where I was.

That is literally the only reason I'm going to watch your biopic, just so I can see that scene.

Anyway, we're going to be able to do that.

Get someone hot to play you.

It was in my Honda Civic.

I had a Honda Civic.

It was, oh, God.

Now I'm remembering the whole horrible thing.

If this Civic's a rocking, don't come unknown.

Let me just say,

I have to tell you, at the time, it was terrifying because everybody

closeted.

You know, now today I'd be like, yeah, I'm naked.

Oh, so people didn't know?

No, but it was bad to be gay.

Like, people were not nice to gay.

Police predicted.

I've heard.

So you had to call Lucky and say, mom, I've got

two things.

I've got bad news and I've got worse news.

No, you think I'm going to call Lucky.

Lucky stopped parenting me when I was six years old.

Who sprung you from jail, you little saucy minx?

No, I didn't go to jail for that when they let me out there.

I talked my way out, but they gave me a, like a summons and everything else.

But they didn't.

The jail was the moped drug dealer.

The crack dealer was the jailing.

Okay, that's enough.

All right,

now I'm turning red.

I can't top that.

I can't top that.

Can I just tell you?

It would think it'd be you that would be indecently exposing things, but it's.

Do you think so?

Yeah.

All right.

One more quick break.

We'll be back for predictions.

Every day, millions of customers engage with AI agents like me.

We resolve queries fast.

We work 24-7 and we're helpful, knowledgeable, and empathetic.

We're built to be the voice of the brands we serve.

Sierra is the platform for building better, more human customer experiences with AI.

No hold music, no generic answers, no frustration.

Visit sierra.ai to learn more.

Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start?

Thumbtack knows homes, so so you don't have to.

Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin, or what that clunking sound from your dryer is?

With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one.

You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app.

Download today.

Every great company's story is defined by moments when the founders make bold decisions.

These are high-stakes moments that risk the business, but can lead to greatness.

I'm Rolof Boerta, managing partner of Sequoia Capital and the host of Crucible Moments.

We're returning for a brand new season.

Join us as leaders from Stripe, Zipline, Pala Alto Networks, Klarna, Supercell, and more.

Share what it's actually like to navigate the make-or-break decisions.

Crucible Moments is back on October 23rd.

Until then, catch up on seasons one and two wherever you find your podcasts.

Okay, Scott, we're going to use predictions slightly differently.

You and I are going to do guesses and see who's right on two predictions, okay?

So, Nobel Peace Prize.

We're recording this ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, which is tomorrow, or today or later today.

Trump has been so thirsty for this prize.

The committee reportedly made their decision about this year's award on Monday, so before the Gaza deal was announced, I think Navalny's spouse is going to get the Nobel Prize and in his name, both of them, right?

I think he's going to get it.

I think it's going to be, she's going to accept it on his behalf.

That's what I think.

I like that one.

I'm not, I'm going to go with other.

I think it's been so politicized.

I think they're going to pick an organization like, I don't know, Sudan's Emergency Response Committee.

Yeah, that's the top in polymarket.

Yeah, that's the top one.

Because I think this whole thing's been so politicized that I think they want to avoid it and they're going to pick something that's going to be hard to criticize that's not an individual oh okay all right so like something like the international criminal court the icc yeah maybe because if i'm on the if i'm on the fucking committee i just there's it's so charged it's so yeah except look the pope is doubling down on politics i think they will i think they they're like fuck this guy that's

and if he does the gaza thing next year he can have it next year if he does it and it sticks he deserves it right so you think trump deserves it Uh, if he ends the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, yes, yes, I can't stand him, but if he, if he is the critical person, oh, I think you're giving him way too much credit.

I think we'd have a better president, both of those conflicts, I think we would add a peacekeeping force already.

I think oh, that he caused the problem, okay.

All right,

tomahawk missiles destroying the oil infrastructure, and they would have already come to the table.

You're right, you're right, you're right, but you know, I'm biased.

All right, so you're going for the other, and I'm going for the Naval.

I'm going for a non-person.

I'm betting on a non-person.

I'm going for an organization.

I'm betting on an organization as opposed to a person.

Smart.

That's smart too, but I'm going to go for her because

I think he's a hero.

The second is the government shutdown, the length of the government shutdown.

Odds are currently at 62% for shutdown going longer than 20 days.

But if these flight delays get worse, by the way, I had one yesterday when I was taking some flights from the Midwest.

Do you predict it will end sooner or can people just hitch a ride on your plane, Scott?

How many days in are we, Kara?

I don't know, like a week and a half.

We're dying at those in the middle.

Seven, eight.

Eight, nine.

I'll go, I'll take, I don't know, it's the over or the under, I'll go longer just because shit takes a while.

I do think that they're going to come.

By the way, I thought Caitlin Collins did a fantastic interview with Representative Jordan.

Yeah.

I thought she was great.

I was feeling it.

Great.

Getting back in his face.

I wrote her a note about that question she asked about Jelaine Maxwell.

Yeah, I thought.

I thought she was great with Representative Jordan.

I think that they're, and again, I'm in my filter bubble, so I see the stuff that the algorithms think I want to see.

I think the Republicans are going to come up with something that gives the Democrats the ability to say, to claim victory here.

Did you see Marjorie Taylor Greene going all the way to the city?

You want to talk about a statement in our society?

What does it mean when Marjorie Taylor Greene is the sane one in the Republican Party right now?

Right.

And she's also being very effective.

She personalized it.

She said, my kids, the premium for my kids is about to double.

Yeah.

I was like, who is this person who

I've been openly critical of Edo Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Schumer.

They have been very

smart going after health care.

They have

pointed.

Did you see him go after Lawler?

LR came and tried to thirsty up the situation.

Jeffries.

That was his best social media post yet.

You posted it.

Yeah, that was Schumer.

That was Schumer.

He definitely looked old as dirt, but actually it was effective looking old.

He is old as dirt.

Yeah, but it worked.

He worked in his favor in that regard.

All right.

So you're picking what time?

He's slightly younger than Tim Cook's father.

Anyways,

I'm picking 47 days, just like those Trump people.

47?

Yeah, that's it.

They want it to be the number of his presidency.

I'm not exaggerating.

If it's 47, that'll ruin our pivot tour because I think you're going to have a shutdown in the FAA or the air traffic controllers.

All right.

Okay.

I heard Nashville Airport is.

pretty much almost it was okay it was actually no it wasn't we i got in yeah you know i talked to all the tsa people they were lovely i have to say shout out to the tsa people working yesterday.

Did you get caught making out his best?

God.

Oh, my God.

One time at TSA, I bought a set of handcuffs in New Orleans, and it was in my bag, and I didn't forgot I had bought them.

I bought them

for a friend.

I do not like handcuffs, but I bought them for a friend.

I put them, threw them in the bag because they have all that stuff in New Orleans.

And someone pulled them out and just dangled them in front of me, in front of everybody.

That is, oh, God, Jesus, I'm a terrible person.

You, I literally, you were arrested for for sex and drugs.

All we're missing is rock and roll here.

No drugs.

No drugs.

Well, they thought you were a drug dealer.

Although, I got to be honest, I don't think you look much like a drug dealer.

I don't.

That's why I got all testy.

Anyway, whatever.

I was in a jail.

I was jailed.

Actually, you're like the gus feeling that selling Tussie or ketamine to all your sorority sisters.

I wouldn't do that.

In exchange for sexual favors in a park.

You know, sending a lesbian to jail is not that scary for a lesbian, just so you know.

Anyway, I saw Orange is a new black.

It looked kind of fun.

Anyway, we want to hear from you.

Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

Gold coins and lesbian sex and parks.

That's why they come here, Kara.

That's why they come here.

Okay, we want to hear from you.

Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

Go to nymag.com/slash pivot to submit.

This is not CNN.

This is not CNN.

Call 855-51PIT Elsewhere in the Kara and Scott universe.

This week on Profit Markets, Scott spoke with Catherine and Edwards, economists and columnist for Bloomberg News.

Let's listen to a clip.

This was terrific interview, by the way.

You can't function in a $30 trillion economy with the data that you need to manage it if you are starving your statistical agencies for funds, which we've been doing for the past 15 years.

Firing the BLS commissioner, halting government data collection.

We are pushing over the edge something that was already deeply problematic.

So we can

see this as a, well, we should have done the right thing 20 years ago, but it doesn't matter when you get to the party as long as you brought a bottle of wine.

Ah, that was great.

That was really good.

I'm coming back as an economist, an agency, or a Broadway dancer.

Those are my three things.

Maybe a chiropractor.

You would be really good as an economist.

And reminder, we're going on tour, as we said.

We'll be going to Toronto, Boston, New York, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco, and L.A.

Visit pivottour.com for tickets, which are going fast.

Several cities are sold out.

And please, please stay away from scalpers and third-party sellers.

Very quickly before we go, I want to put a shout out to Marie Samuels.

She's a fifth grader who came up to me yesterday in an event I was at in Minneapolis.

And she asked an amazing question about what we should do about kids and social media.

Such a smart kid.

She actually started a fourth grade newspaper late last year, and she's now in fifth grade.

And they sent me copies of it, and it's wonderful.

Marie, you're going to be an amazing journalist someday.

I just want to say that.

Okay.

She was astonishing the amount amount of poise she had and a great question.

Anyway, I really appreciate that.

And again, keep going.

You did a great job so far.

Okay, that's the show.

Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

We'll be back next week.

Scott, read us out.

Today's show is produced by Larry Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Annika Robbins.

Ernie Interstead engineered this episode.

Jim Mackle edited the video.

Thanks to also to Drew Burrows, Mr.

Vera Undan, Shalana, Shakerwa, as Voxme is the executive producer of podcast.

Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media.

You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/slash pod.

We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

Folks, we do need to reopen the government.

We need our military.

We need to pay our great employees and we need to keep those national parks open so Jared can get some.

I love that.

I love that.

I need a job with a steady paycheck.

I need a job that offers health care on day one for me and my kids.

I want a job where I can get certified in technical roles, like robotics or software engineering.

In communities across the country, hourly Amazon employees earn an average of over $23 an hour with opportunities to grow their skills and their paycheck by enrolling in free skills training programs and apprenticeships.

Learn more at aboutamazon.com.

The world is changing faster than ever.

Now, with The Economist Insider, a new premium video offering, we're giving you unprecedented access to the debates shaping our world.

I have sat around that table at NATO.

There is an incoming missile attack now.

Could you answer the question?

I'm sorry, we've got very little time left.

With a few surprises along the way.

I can't promise we'll have a cocktail every time, but we'll try.

So, don't just be an economist reader.

Get on the inside track with The Economist Insider.

Go to economist.com to join the conversation.

Support for this show comes from Notion.

There's only one of you.

Only so many hours.

Only so much focus.

What if you had a teammate who could work just like you do, with all the context you have, but faster?

That's what Notion AI feels like.

Notion is the connected workspace where teams create, plan, track, and ship together.

Now, with Notion Agent, you can get an AI teammate that finishes the job.

Notion Agent can do anything you can do in Notion, completing multi-step actions end-to-end to move work forward while you focus on hard decisions.

You assign the task, your Notion Agent does the work.

Try Notion and NotionAgent for free at notion.com slash box.