Nvidia Hits $5 Trillion, Elon Musk Launches Grokipedia, and OpenAI's IPO Future

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Speaker 3 So let me get this straight. Your company has data here, there and everywhere.
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Speaker 3 And you did something you almost never do. You didn't let me finish.
That's really unlike you. Oh, yeah, right.

Speaker 2 Do you like to see the statistics on the talking of this show?

Speaker 2 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher.

Speaker 3 And I'm Scott Galloway.

Speaker 2 I have returned to our country, Scott.

Speaker 3 Yeah, you look much better. Thank you.
How was your travel back or your trip back?

Speaker 2 You know, you leave yesterday and arrive today. Or no, you leave tomorrow and then you arrive today.
I don't know. It's just like I left at 10 a.m.
and then I got back. It was the same day at 10 a.m.

Speaker 2 That's all I know.

Speaker 3 It's funny because I can confirm you have not aged since yesterday.

Speaker 2 Do you like my I had a treatment? I think I look good.

Speaker 3 Very nice. You're a great skin.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I wore a robot outfit. I wore a robot.
It was good. It was good.

Speaker 3 But I had a robot outfit.

Speaker 2 I really am happy to be back. I don't like traveling that much.

Speaker 2 I don't, even though I travel a lot.

Speaker 3 So I didn't want to tell you this while you were in Asia because I didn't want to trigger anything, but occasionally I have,

Speaker 3 I can tell you think it's going to be a dirty joke. It isn't.

Speaker 3 You're literally waiting, like, oh, no, here it comes.

Speaker 2 I'm slowly catching up on my side.

Speaker 3 So one. Is there going to be something about, I don't know, some sort of bad Asian flu joke or something?

Speaker 2 You know, those funny Democratic ladies, they said the word TWAT, so we can do anything we want now.

Speaker 3 Well, that's the great thing about living in London is technically you can use the C word. Oh, yeah, something different.
I still don't use it, anyways.

Speaker 2 You can't say it, can you? I can't say it.

Speaker 3 Uh, you can say it, I can't say it.

Speaker 2 I can.

Speaker 3 I'd say, I just think there's certain things that are just off limits for a stray white guy. We just agree.
There's certain words that we just have lost. Yeah.

Speaker 3 That are just a give. Anyways.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 You can say it to me on our tour every night. You could say it to me just quietly.

Speaker 3 I'd never say that to you. Anyway, so

Speaker 3 I occasionally

Speaker 3 when a couple times, a couple times, yeah, twice when I've been in Asia, I used to go to Asia a lot for business.

Speaker 3 And there's something about that amount of jet lag or crossing the date line that triggers something in my, you know, hypothalamus or almond gala or whatever.

Speaker 3 And I get, I have a pretty serious depressive episode. And it's happened to me twice.
And the last time I was in Hong Kong and I was staying at one of the most remarkable hotels.

Speaker 3 I was like on the 88th floor. Like the Grand Hyatt or whatever.
No, it was called the Upper House. And it was just remarkable.

Speaker 3 They bring you this incredible tea set and you're, you're on top of the clouds and looking at Hong Kong. And I woke up and I get this weird sort of

Speaker 3 fear anxiety that I'm too far from anyone that cares about me or that I care about. And I feel very isolated and very frightened.

Speaker 3 And like what series of bad decisions led me to somewhere where I don't know anybody and no one cares about me. And if I get sick or something,

Speaker 3 I just start freaking the fuck out. And last time I was supposed, I was meeting with Mandarin Oriental, the hotel group, the next morning, I was supposed to meet with the CEO.

Speaker 3 And instead, I just checked out, went to the airport and got on the first flight home. Really? But there's something about

Speaker 2 I was waiting for the dick joke too. I was like, where is he going to tell you?

Speaker 3 No, no, no.

Speaker 2 Wow. That's amazing.
That's interesting. I get that feeling.
I have to say, I was, I was saying this to Amanda last night.

Speaker 2 I. I was just wanted to get home.
I like, I felt unsafe.

Speaker 3 I don't know what's

Speaker 3 by myself. So you just described times up by 10.
Yeah. Where you're like, you're, you start to kind of shake a little bit and you feel really upset and insecure and like foreboding.

Speaker 3 And I, I just went straight down to the lobby, went straight to the airport, looked at the, looked at the board and said, get me the first flight back to the U.S.

Speaker 3 Because I find, I don't know if you found this, and this sounds more virtuous than it is because it only lasts about five minutes before I start hating them again.

Speaker 3 As soon as I'm around my kids, it was like the solve.

Speaker 2 It was the oh no, I love my kids. I was just thinking how much I love my kids.

Speaker 3 I'm so excited. That's what I mean.
I mean, it immediately snaps me back to just something okay.

Speaker 2 Yeah, it was great to see them.

Speaker 2 And of course, it was just one or like when I got back, Saul often gets into bed with us in the early morning and he goes, he looked at me, he goes, I really missed you. And I was like, oh, my God.

Speaker 3 Where are the cameras, right?

Speaker 2 Yeah, right. I think he knows the impact too, which is really cute.
Well, so.

Speaker 3 Another quick parenting piece of advice. One of the biggest, one of my biggest regrets about raising my kids is with my youngest one.

Speaker 3 Not until he was like two or three, we didn't let him co-sleep with us because we read somewhere it was bad for you or bad for him.

Speaker 3 And he used to show up at our bedroom with a basket of cars like as an offering

Speaker 3 saying, if you let me sleep with you, you too can play with these cars.

Speaker 3 And I look back, and fortunately, we did co-sleep with our younger one.

Speaker 3 Co-sleeping is a gift from God.

Speaker 2 It is. They come in.

Speaker 2 It's unavoidable.

Speaker 3 They come in and and you sleep better, they sleep better, and you'll wake up occasionally.

Speaker 3 And they'll be looking at you and they'll smile and then they'll put their arm on you and then they fall to sleep and like everything is right with the world.

Speaker 3 I think co-sleeping is the Japanese cultures do it, Indian cultures do it.

Speaker 3 Some psychiatrist fucked up in the head, in my view, in the 50s or 60s, convinced American parents we're not supposed to co-sleep. I mean, I just, I really

Speaker 2 well, it's unavoidable with us. On point, Amanda's covered with a cat and both kids.
Like, I'm like, hi, good to see you over there.

Speaker 2 Yeah, it is a nice thing.

Speaker 2 Before we get to this award you got, last night I was at Mount Vernon, which they're redoing.

Speaker 2 Mount Vernon is privately run, so they can put up whatever they want. They have a whole new

Speaker 2 things about the slaves of George Washington. It was really well done.

Speaker 2 But Ken Burns was showing off his new American Revolution series there last night, an outdoor in the middle of sort of a rainstorm. It was wonderful.

Speaker 2 And it was quite lovely. I have to say, say, I had the loveliest time last night.
I love that, Ken Burns.

Speaker 3 There is some wonderful things about social media.

Speaker 3 Social media, I always loved his documentaries, but now that I have the attention span of a cat that's gotten its owner's meth supply, I don't watch a lot of, you know, that PBS documentary style stuff.

Speaker 3 He's been on... He's been all over social media talking about the current administration and history.
He is an outstanding thinker.

Speaker 2 He is, I have to say. But it looks actually

Speaker 2 really good and really pertinent right now. So anyway, tell me about this spirit of hope.
Speaking of hope in America.

Speaker 3 Well, Kier, I don't like to bring attention to myself.

Speaker 3 As you know, I've successfully navigated all awards since I went most comical in high school. Yeah.
But last night I was in Toronto at the Simon Wiesenthal Center and I got an award with Van Jones.

Speaker 3 Wow.

Speaker 3 For, I think it's.

Speaker 2 He's a handsome man. Oh my gosh.

Speaker 3 He's so dreamy. He's really nice, too.
Very spiritual, really.

Speaker 3 I'm trying to get him to run for some.

Speaker 2 Was he wearing like a spiritual spiritual outfit?

Speaker 3 Yeah, he looks like a sexy monk. He just looks

Speaker 3 monk is in spiritual figure. Yeah.
He's very,

Speaker 3 yeah, and he's, I traveled back to New York with him. He's very, I'm really very impressed with that.

Speaker 2 What's the spirit of hope?

Speaker 3 What was the, what was the award for? So every year, the Simon Wiesenthal Center gets together and they have, they present an award to people for defense. I think it's Defense of the Jewish Community.

Speaker 3 And they do a talk and a speech. There was like 1,600 people.

Speaker 3 Canada has a very strong Jewish community.

Speaker 3 Toronto is particularly. Yeah, Toronto.
And

Speaker 3 they reached out to me and I was really excited to do it. I don't,

Speaker 3 quite frankly, I was really excited. You ever do those things?

Speaker 2 I'm surprised.

Speaker 3 No, you know, it was, it was, it was just, it was a really nice moment for me. You know, I don't, I've never been that in touch with my Judaism.
I'm an atheist.

Speaker 3 I don't feel much connection with Israel. I've obviously been pretty outspoken on it.
And,

Speaker 3 you know, regardless of what you think of the situation, there's a lot of people in the Jewish community who are very appreciative. And it was just very nice for me.
My mom would have loved it.

Speaker 2 Wow, we're going to be back in Toronto, too.

Speaker 3 Yeah, we're going back. Actually, a bunch of people came up to me and said, I'll see you next week.

Speaker 2 We're going to have such a good time.

Speaker 2 I'm excited. We sold out there first, which was really interesting.

Speaker 3 Toronto, yeah. Toronto.
Yeah. I love it.
And it's so strange. I don't know if you, I doubt you've been watching the World Series and you know less about sports than I do.
Blue Jays, right?

Speaker 3 It's so weird to be rooting for the Blue Jays. LA is my home team.

Speaker 2 Oh, why aren't you voting for LA?

Speaker 3 You know, I just find Canada to be, quite frankly, the nation

Speaker 3 the U.S. should be right now.
I think they've got a good leader. I think they're a reasonable people.
I think they're generous people. I think they take care of people.

Speaker 3 I don't think you can go bankrupt if your wife gets lung cancer. I think Canada is the underappreciated neighbor.

Speaker 2 We should move there. We should just stay there.

Speaker 3 Who recycles,

Speaker 3 sees your kid on the street and walks him or her home, pays the rent on time.

Speaker 2 I'll tell you, I think we noted Doug Ford, who is very conservative. And the Gavin News and Doug Ford thing about the World Series was very funny.

Speaker 2 And they took, like, they dumped on Trump at the same time as talked about, you know, the bet on the Blue Jays versus the Dodgers, which was interesting.

Speaker 3 It's a great series. I mean, I'm not into baseball, but it's a great series.
I didn't watch any of it.

Speaker 2 None of it. Not a bit of it.
Even slightly.

Speaker 3 I got cut from the baseball team in high school. That's my connection.
Yeah, I made the team and then I got cut midseason, which was really good for my confidence. Oh, wow.

Speaker 3 Mom, I made the baseball team. I got news.
How did you get cut?

Speaker 3 How did did I get cut? It's pretty easy. You don't play that well.
Right. And then the coach sits you down and says, we're cutting you.

Speaker 2 Why even bother? Why even just let you stay there, sadly, on the bench?

Speaker 3 I guess there's only a certain number of, I don't know, it's not everybody gets a trophy. I kind of respect that about sports.

Speaker 3 Okay. All right.
All right.

Speaker 2 Anyway, all right. Well, congratulations on your spirit.
You're my spirit of hope. Anyway, we've got my spirit animal.

Speaker 2 We've got a lot to get to today, including Nvidia making history, kind of crazy, and Elon making Gracopedia.

Speaker 3 Oh my God.

Speaker 2 But first, OpenAI is finally a for-profit company. And I knew this would happen.

Speaker 2 Elon tried to stop it, but announced this week that has formed a public benefit corporation similar to the structures of XAI and Anthropic.

Speaker 2 Under the new setup, OpenAI's nonprofit foundation gets a 26% stake worth about $130 billion and will run the for-profit arm.

Speaker 2 It's the same board, by the way, I think. Microsoft gets 27% and keeps exclusive rights to OpenAI's tech through 2032.
Sam Altman reportedly does not have a significant stake.

Speaker 2 I feel like he's going to do just fine.

Speaker 2 There's a buzz about an IPO as early as next year, possibly at a trillion dollar valuation out of the gate, but Altman's saying there's no specific timeframe yet.

Speaker 2 Talk a little bit about this because we've talked about the idea of them going public and this looks like, and a lot of companies not going public.

Speaker 2 And I just want to note, OpenAI is also sharing estimates for the first time. This is a drag on them, I think, how many ChatGPT users are struggling with mental health issues.

Speaker 2 The company says in a typical week, about 0.07% of users show possible signs of mental health emergencies. And while that percentage sounds small, remember ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users.

Speaker 2 OpenAI says they've consulted with more than 170 mental health experts to help improve responses during, quote, challenging conversations.

Speaker 2 Character AI, which is probably the worst of them, is barring people under 18 from using its chat box starting next month. You're kidding.
Character AI.

Speaker 2 Long time coming, should have happened right at the start.

Speaker 2 So these are a drag on these companies, too, because these companies do know much more so than a Google mental, what people are asking specifically about.

Speaker 2 So talk a little bit about the IPO and possible drags on, I would say this would be a drag on it, but maybe not.

Speaker 3 I think it's actually good that they're releasing this data. And supposedly, some people have said, although that the chatter has calmed down, that the number one app of AI was therapy.

Speaker 3 And so if you you can imagine a significant portion of those 800 million people are using it as a therapist, you know, 0.07% of users showing possible signs of mental health emergencies.

Speaker 3 That just may be representative of the population who wants to talk to a therapist digitally or in person. So I don't, I don't.

Speaker 2 They should be governed by therapy rules if they're going to be a therapist, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 I think that's a really good point.

Speaker 3 Can you say more, can you say more about what that means? I don't know what that means.

Speaker 2 When I was doing the parents of one of the kids who committed suicide, the chat GPT parents, she happens to be a therapist. And she's like, if I had given this advice, I would have been arrested.

Speaker 2 Therapists are governed by, you know, there's lots of bad therapists, by the way, let's be clear. But they have repercussions if they are.

Speaker 2 And so they have, first of all, privacy issues. And

Speaker 2 it's just these people have no, what you put into open AI is not, doesn't have any privilege, just like legal stuff, financial stuff. That's one.

Speaker 2 and then this and or privacy and then two they don't they're not governed if they do something wrong if the if the if the AI bot says something wrong like they have there's no repercussions for it

Speaker 2 and so therapists aren't governed people are governed if you if you shame someone into suicide you could be tried for it and have people have been and so that's the issue they have none of their they have all the all the uh usage and none of the responsibility, I would say.

Speaker 2 So if they're going to do mental health work with people, they should be licensed therapists and should pay the price if they fuck up.

Speaker 2 That's my feeling.

Speaker 3 Yeah, look, I agree with that. I think that more broadly, they should have adopted a similar approach that most content or the military or bars put in place.

Speaker 3 And that is there should be different versions of AI, and you have to show your age and your identity.

Speaker 3 And if you can't prove you're over the age of 18, you get an entirely different set of algorithms and, you know, processing and warnings.

Speaker 3 And also, I think kids, like if I went in and tried to buy beer under the age of 21 and I got caught, they call the cops and my parents get to know. Right.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 And my parents weigh in and say, okay, you shouldn't be buying beer. Why are you buying beer?

Speaker 3 Or

Speaker 3 why did you try to buy a gun? Or your kid was here with a fake ID trying to get a driver's license. Right.
So I think that it's pretty simple. There needs to be a different version of AI.

Speaker 3 And there needs to be, in my view, I've never bought into the notion of, so for example, I want to give the right,

Speaker 3 you know, throw the right a bone. I don't think kids under the 18 should be allowed to engage in gender affirmation drugs without the consent of their parents.

Speaker 3 And in sum, when someone is under the age of 18, they're a kid. And kids are stupid.
They make irrational decisions. Their brains aren't fully formed.

Speaker 2 May I point something out?

Speaker 2 This is almost every case they are.

Speaker 3 So they are not a good idea.

Speaker 3 It's a very rare case. And

Speaker 3 I agree with you. It's been weaponized and politicized.
But there are instances where parents found out after a lot of other adults knew. And that is wrong.
I think when you're under the...

Speaker 2 It's like the number of trans fencers, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 I know, but I'm saying just theoretically, it just shouldn't happen.

Speaker 3 What I'm saying is there should also be no kid who types in how to kill different ways to kill yourself and not have their parents notified. Right, exactly.

Speaker 3 They shouldn't be using them.

Speaker 2 They shouldn't be using them. I mean, there's only one way to do it.

Speaker 3 Well, look, you use them for homework. You use them for research.

Speaker 3 They're just, for example, if you're under the, if you go to a movie and you're 12, there's certain movies you can see and certain ones you can't. It shouldn't be any different here.

Speaker 3 There should be a certain type of AI that minors can have.

Speaker 3 I mean, do you know what's going to happen? Do you know how a 17-year-old boy is going to start using AI now?

Speaker 3 I mean, it's going to be insane.

Speaker 2 Yeah, erotica and stuff.

Speaker 2 They had a great piece in the New York Times with the guy who was in charge of that, how it had.

Speaker 2 They have a lot of insight into what people do compared to, you know, Google, you go, you search it, you know, like, I don't know, bondage or whatever,

Speaker 2 but you don't really know what they're doing. In this case, it's very, very explicit what's happening in the search.
And so it's a very different ball of of wax.

Speaker 2 Talk a little bit about the public offering, though, because this is going to be the blockbuster, right?

Speaker 3 We predicted this. When he announced,

Speaker 3 I mean, I personally think all this stuff around we need 50 nuclear power plants, just open AI.

Speaker 3 I think what he's saying is, my business is going to be so big, bad, awesome, and valuable, I'm going to need 50 nuclear power plants.

Speaker 3 I don't think he has any fucking idea at this point how much power they're going to need. I mean, generally speaking,

Speaker 3 there's a bunch of catastrophizing about how we don't have enough power. And my thesis is China is just going to develop AIs that are LLMs that use a lot less power.

Speaker 3 But in also signing a $300 billion deal with Oracle, what does that say to the market? It says, oh my God, he thinks it's going to be, he knows more than us.

Speaker 3 He thinks it's going to be a trillion-dollar revenue company. And all of this.

Speaker 3 He is a very bright guy. And to be clear, he is focused on nothing but his quote-unquote insignificant insignificant stake in AI.
And his insignificant stake might be only 5% or 6%.

Speaker 3 But of a trillion-dollar valuation, which it might get, he's going to make $50 or $60 billion.

Speaker 2 And he has energy companies and he has blank, blank.

Speaker 3 I just love how we continue to fall for the hushed tones.

Speaker 3 Oh, I don't get paid.

Speaker 2 It's going to make a lot of money.

Speaker 3 I don't get paid. That's the reason why I'm doing this.

Speaker 2 Yeah, he's getting paid.

Speaker 3 But meanwhile, I've decided that porn for kids, synthetic porn, lifelike porn for kids, is good for the world and is helping the original mission of using AI to improve and protect humanity.

Speaker 3 I mean, when do we clue in and realize everything these guys do is to get the incremental dollar? And

Speaker 3 in my view, that's fine as long as we recognize it, regulate them, and then tax them such that we can reinvest.

Speaker 2 Yeah, whenever they say, we're not here for the money, I'm like, you're here for the money. This is the only reason I appreciate Trump.
It's like, how much money can I make?

Speaker 3 He's naked. Yeah, he's transferred.

Speaker 3 I've always said any, I've always said the VCs who get on stage at business school and say, well, it was never about the money would fuck their sister for a nickel. But anyways, oh my God.

Speaker 3 These, okay, that's not fair. 10 cents.
So look,

Speaker 3 this is where the IPO markets are right now. The IPO markets are essentially branding events.
He is an amazing brand builder. He's done a great job being in the news.

Speaker 3 Open AI is the leader in what is considered the tectonic

Speaker 3 shift in the technology. Also, the capital needs of this company are so extraordinary because it's a capital war right now.

Speaker 3 Because I think they've all figured out there's probably going to be one in the seven dwarves, and it's a capital race.

Speaker 3 And by the way, the last stop on the valuation change are the only people, investors willing to pay a trillion-dollar valuation for a company with 10, you know, that's

Speaker 2 got to keep it hyped, in other words.

Speaker 3 That's going to be 50 to 100 times revenue.

Speaker 3 It's probably going to make Palantir look like a value stock. And the only people willing to pay that are going to be

Speaker 3 retail investors who are like, why not buy Open AI and just hold on? And so we've said, I think I said two months ago when he announced this deal with Oracle, I'm like, this means he's going public.

Speaker 3 Because the only way he could ever even begin to deliver against those, that $300 billion agreement for compute is if he went public and raised, you know, $100, you know, $50 or $100 billion over the next few years in the public market.

Speaker 2 Yeah, this is his move. He has to be, he has to be Google.
He can't be Netscape. He's got to be Google, right? This is his move.

Speaker 2 Even though there's other competitors and everything else, they have got to maintain the lead perceptually and actually, right?

Speaker 2 In terms of quality enough, they don't have to be the very best. AI, I guess.
It's sort of like Microsoft. They have to be a very good one, but they have to keep the brand.

Speaker 2 They have the branding lead still. I don't think you think of anybody else.

Speaker 2 People cannot name other ones, sort of unless they can say anthropic, I guess, but it's people who are actively using it or regular people think Chat GPT.

Speaker 3 And I've I have absolutely I think we should do away with the classic the classification

Speaker 3 as a public benefit corporation. I think it is such bullshit jazz hand.

Speaker 2 Explain what that is for people who don't know.

Speaker 3 It's defined as a corporation which is something along the lines of intends to produce public benefits or public good and operate in a responsible and sustainable manner, balancing financial returns to shareholders with a broader public interest.

Speaker 3 This is like British Petroleum in the odds saying

Speaker 3 BP is beyond petroleum. And they'd show some Asian dude in a lab coat working on algae.
And we were supposed to forget that 99.7% of their R ⁇ D was just drilling mower for fossil fuels.

Speaker 3 And finally, BP just said, let's stop fucking pretending. We're an oil company.
Everybody needs oil. They interact with it every day.
They're willing to pay for it. We're not doing anything wrong.

Speaker 3 We're complying with lies. We're complying with laws.

Speaker 2 Lies, too. We're complying with lies.

Speaker 3 That was a bit of a Freudian slip.

Speaker 3 My favorite Freudian

Speaker 3 slip was Senator Warren's Freudian slip. What did she call Trump?

Speaker 3 The C word? Yeah.

Speaker 2 You really just want to say that word, don't you?

Speaker 3 And a bunch of VCs here in New York started calling their companies public benefit. By the way, who enforces that? Who decides whether it is such

Speaker 3 marketing in BS? And so what I would like to see is, all right, you want to call yourself a public benefit corporation. There are certain guardrails here.

Speaker 3 One, you pay at least an AMT, an alternative minotai. You're at least a good taxpayer, right? You have, I don't know,

Speaker 3 you never get more than X number of complaints about X or Y. Or otherwise, just call yourself what you want.

Speaker 2 You always get this much money returned to shareholders. You could do all minor things.

Speaker 3 The CEO doesn't make more than 50 times the average worker's salary instead of 800, right? You could come up with a series of things.

Speaker 3 If you're really serious about quote unquote the benefit of the public here, here's a few ideas.

Speaker 2 Yeah, one of the things is that they started that way, right? And so they kind of had to keep, they couldn't like predict. Elon Musk was like, this is bullshit.
And he was right, like in that regard.

Speaker 2 But they did manage to jam it through. And there was a lot of, like, he was ginning up all kinds of trouble and state attorney generals were looking at it.

Speaker 2 And so they managed to jam this thing through, which shows how talented they are, meaning they are the farthest away from public benefit in terms of personality. But we'll see.

Speaker 2 We'll see where it goes. We'll see.
Would you buy into it? Would you buy or not? No, yes.

Speaker 3 Oh, if I could get into the IPO, I would do, I would do it, but I would do it as a trade.

Speaker 2 So you buy and sell.

Speaker 3 Yeah, because what they'll do is they'll get... I mean, this will be a monster IPO.
CNBC will just sit there touching themselves talking about this for three weeks. And then, and then

Speaker 3 that's good.

Speaker 3 And then, and then the thing goes out.

Speaker 3 What IPOs do right now is they check in with the bankers every other minute and they go, we want to price it such that we can manage a 20 to 40 percent pop right out of the gates and maybe more.

Speaker 3 Now, Chesky priced it too low and it was up 120 percent. Figma went up 140 percent.
Circle, those guys didn't realize that was going to happen.

Speaker 3 But what you want to be is this is what he wants the headline. He does not want the headline to be open AI flat in in IPO IPO Debbie.
What he wants is

Speaker 3 open AI surges in IPO. That is a branding event that is singular and can only happen once or not.
So

Speaker 3 the thing will be priced. They'll come up with some bullshit thing where they'll say that we're offering our users a chance and

Speaker 3 they'll let them buy $11 worth of stock and claim that they're letting their users participate.

Speaker 2 We made $14, yeah.

Speaker 3 And then they'll run around the world to the biggest hedge funds and biggest institutions. They'll go to BlackRock, State Street, and the bankers will make a shit ton of money.

Speaker 3 It'll be a huge ranting event. But right out of the gates, I bet it's up 30 or 60%.

Speaker 3 But the problem is, if I got access, which I don't think I'll have, given that I have this podcast where we're constantly critical of them, but the people, the institutions that get in will, some of them will hold, most, a lot of them will sell.

Speaker 3 And then the retail investor, the guy or gal on the street will buy at that first trade. That will probably not be a great price to buy in at.
But, you know, we'll see.

Speaker 2 We'll see if they'll give Scott some. All right, let's say speaking of high stock market, let's go on a quick break when we come back.
NVIDIA hits yet another major milestone.

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Speaker 2 Scott, we're back. NVIDIA just became the first company in history to hit the $5 trillion in market value a little over three months after it hit the $4 trillion mark.

Speaker 2 To give you some perspective, NVIDIA is now worth about 25 Disneys, 50 Nikes or bigger than the GDP of Germany. It's been a busy week for NVIDIA.

Speaker 2 The company is also taking a $1 billion stake in Nokia. Oh, that seems, I'm not loving that move.
Plus partnering with Oracle to build the energy department's largest ever AI supercomputer.

Speaker 2 And NVIDIA's annual conference, CEO Jensen Huang took an opportunity to lavish praise on Donald Trump. Why wouldn't he? Trump Trump has made him really rich.
Let's listen.

Speaker 6 President Trump deserves enormous credit. His pro-energy initiative, his recognition that this industry needs energy to grow.
It needs energy to advance, and we need energy to win.

Speaker 6 His recognition of that and putting the weight of the nation behind pro-energy growth completely changed the game. If this didn't happen, we could have been in a bad situation.

Speaker 6 And I want to thank President Trump for that.

Speaker 3 Oh, my God.

Speaker 3 Let me interpret for all of you out there what he was saying. Mr.
President, let me sell my shit to China. Yes, that's exactly what I said.
Let me sell my, okay, weapons,

Speaker 3 greater likelihood they can hack our systems, more cyber attacks on us,

Speaker 3 an increased probability they're able to invade Taiwan

Speaker 3 in a hot or a cold war using our GPUs, which American universities and IP protection have made me worth more than Boeing.

Speaker 3 Let me sell my chips into China and ignore all of the concerns from the Defense Department.

Speaker 2 And look how rich I've gotten off of you. Like, it's just, you know, let me tell you something.
I knew, I've known Jensen for a long time.

Speaker 2 I interviewed him many times when he had the company that was just selling chips to video game companies, essentially. He will not do an interview with me.

Speaker 2 I've known him 30 years. Like he refuses because I'll be like, so let's talk about China.
Let's talk about President Trump. Let's talk about, you know, smart.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I, it's just like, actually, you know what? I lost a lot of respect because I like Jensen, but boy, is he like he should go.

Speaker 3 Actually, he should go on your show because he'd be fine.

Speaker 2 I would agree, but he won't because I, because I know him, right?

Speaker 2 Like, talk about someone I've known for, like, just, it's fine if he wants to do it this way, but you know, it's some, he, he, he probably looked at a Cisco or something like that and, and is so much smarter, like that he, speaking of wanting to keep, you know, he doesn't want AMD to show up he doesn't want Apple to make he wants to control he wants to avoid the mistakes of Intel over the years you know he kind of wants to own it for the next the for the future essentially and so sucking up to Trump he'll do it he has no problem doing it whatsoever Though he dresses like a very attractive lesbian, I think.

Speaker 3 I'm sure that's what he's going for. That's what he says for style.
He's got that outfit. Pot lesbian.
That's what I want my closet to look like.

Speaker 2 What do you go doing? Like the leather. I have that exact leather jacket.

Speaker 3 Look, you got to give it to the guy. He's created more shareholder value in a shorter time than any person in history.
And he's created tremendous,

Speaker 3 he's made thousands of people millionaires, if not tens of thousands. He's created an ecosystem.
He's paying a shit ton of taxes indirectly and directly for the great state of California.

Speaker 3 A lot of that, it's great that that ecosystem and he's sort of the ground, you know, ground zero for the ecosystem is happening in America. I think the guy deserves a lot of credit.

Speaker 3 He seems like a very nice man. My Jensen Huang story is the following.
I spoke on stage at some thing at Cannes,

Speaker 3 and a bunch of people lined up to take photos. And this nice guy comes up and says, I just love your videos.
And I was like, the line was really long. And I'm like, boss, where's your camera?

Speaker 3 And he's like, oh.

Speaker 3 And he pulls out a camera and we take a snap. And I'm like, I'm sorry, boss, the line is long.
And I kind of shuffled him along.

Speaker 3 And the next guy comes up to me and goes, you know, that was Jensen Huang, right? Oh, and I'm like, Jensen?

Speaker 3 Jensen, come back.

Speaker 2 Was this recently? Because no one really paid attention.

Speaker 3 No, it was like, it was, that's, that's exactly, it was like three years ago.

Speaker 2 Yeah, because I gotta say, I always thought he was, he was, it was unusual for us to have him at Code because he wasn't that well known, right? But he was doing all sorts of innovative things in chips

Speaker 2 when others weren't. And it was largely around video games, as I recall, right? He was doing and phones, maybe.

Speaker 2 But this,

Speaker 2 his whole situation has changed rather drastically, including that entire company, which was sort of not as well known. But yeah.

Speaker 3 But he he has a feel for brand. One, the leather jacket is not an accident that he keeps wearing it.
And two,

Speaker 3 his annual meeting is now the new Berkshire Hathaway Summit. I forget what they called it.
But they are very, the investor relations there is.

Speaker 3 Very good. So he announced a bunch of promising new things, AI and quantum computing infrastructure.
He announced partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy and leading U.S.

Speaker 3 companies to build AI infrastructure, aiming to support scientific discovery and national competitiveness. He hit all the right notes.
AI supercomputers.

Speaker 3 He revealed a project to build an AI supercomputer for the U.S. Department of Energy with a reported $500 billion in bookings for AI chips.

Speaker 2 Yeah, he needs to keep selling his chips. I think he needs to keep selling this.
He's really good at it, but he's still a chicken shit.

Speaker 2 You're a chicken shit, Jensen, for not talking to me.

Speaker 3 I'm not that hard. That's probably a little rough.
By the way, you know who the only politician is, the only candidate who's refused to come on Raging Moderates?

Speaker 2 What, who?

Speaker 3 The leading candidate for mayor of New York. He's the only person that said no to us.
Yeah. Anyways, why would he come on your thing? I wouldn't

Speaker 3 really do smart.

Speaker 2 That's a smart move.

Speaker 2 He won't come on mine either. He's like literally talks to a general.

Speaker 3 He's already won. He's won.
Why take any risks? I would advise him to just go with family's right now.

Speaker 2 He won't come on mine either. It's weird.
I was in touch with him months and months and months ago when he wasn't ahead.

Speaker 3 No.

Speaker 3 Was he a babysitter? Anyways,

Speaker 2 no, he was like polling 2% at the time.

Speaker 3 So they revealed a project to build construction in America.

Speaker 3 They noted that their latest chips, including Blackwell, are now in full-scale production in Arizona, reflecting new investment in U.S.-based fabrication and supply chain. That will be a lot of jobs.

Speaker 3 He emphasized, at least in the short term to construct it, he emphasized the importance of accelerated computing, national AI strategies.

Speaker 2 He's a rock star.

Speaker 3 And reindustrialization. They're hitting all the right words.
Reindustrialization. That's a great word.

Speaker 2 So any kind of bubble? Are you worried?

Speaker 3 Oh, yeah. Yeah.
I mean, it's not, the fear isn't that these things go down.

Speaker 3 The fear is, imagine Leo, when he was hanging on to that piece of furniture at the end,

Speaker 3 when he was going down, took Kate Winslet and 400 kids down with him.

Speaker 3 When he vanished into the

Speaker 3 darkness of the depths, what if he had 11,000 arms and took everyone down with him? That's the problem. It's not that these companies correct and their stocks go down.

Speaker 3 That happens to every big tech stock. That happens to every stock at some point.
The problem is they're going to,

Speaker 3 they may take the global economy with them down because 40% of the SP is 10 companies, which represents 20% of the market cap of the entire publicly traded companies globally. So this is.

Speaker 2 Actually, not everyone goes down. Berkshire Hathaway didn't.
That's because he's so good. Like this guy's not.
Actually, that's not true.

Speaker 3 At the depths of the great financial recession. Oh, did it go down? When Berkshire had been hit hard like anyone else, if you did the calculation on Warren Buffett, at that moment, he was flat.

Speaker 3 Now, within 14 months, he was now up again 23%

Speaker 3 since his inception of his fund. But no one gets out alive if this thing, if these things, if NVIDIA, we should hope.

Speaker 3 We should hope that OpenAI goes public at a really good market cap and that NVIDIA

Speaker 3 keeps announcing record quarters or that it's sort of a soft pullback. Because if NVIDIA throws up, I mean, everyone else has the stomach flow.

Speaker 2 Jensen, keep looking like that lesbian you do. You're an attractive, very attractive lesbian.
Anyway, let's also talk about Grackopedia, the encyclopedia powered by XAI and his rival to Wikipedia.

Speaker 2 It sucks so bad. I tried it.
I just couldn't. Has complained about so-called propaganda on Wikipedia.
He's been doing that for a while.

Speaker 2 Grackopedia went online with around 900,000 articles and briefly crashed after launching. It was full of like, it loves Elon.
It loves Elon, that's for sure. It's full of errors.

Speaker 2 It leaves things out, like a lot of stuff out,

Speaker 2 factual stuff.

Speaker 2 And it's,

Speaker 2 does he, why is he doing this? Like,

Speaker 2 does he have just an extra five minutes to do something? I don't know.

Speaker 2 At the same time, Truth Social, which is majority owned by President Trump and his family, is launching a crypto-based prediction market platform to compete with Polymarket and I guess Kelchie.

Speaker 2 Truth Predict will allow truth social users to place crypto bets on outcome events.

Speaker 2 The guy in charge of the outcome events is going to have a betting platform. That's interesting.

Speaker 2 Also, I think Don Jr. is on the board of both the polymarket and

Speaker 2 he's involved with them.

Speaker 2 I just

Speaker 2 don't know what to say. And the last thing about Elon, of course, Tezo is looking for internal CEO candidates in case his trillion-dollar pay package is not passed and he leaves.

Speaker 2 So any predictions here? Any of these, any of these topics? Grackopedia?

Speaker 3 I think it's a nothing permanent.

Speaker 3 Grackapedia is an attempt to sort of establish a new truth right and one of the things i like about wikipedia is it's it's almost impossible to have a functioning democracy if we don't all agree that there is an objective truth And the Congress used to fall in line when peer-reviewed research would come in or data would come in, they wouldn't, I mean, they try and spin it, but they would acknowledge, okay, this is the data and we all need to rally around it.

Speaker 3 That's no longer the case. Everyone's decided there are quote-unquote alternative facts.
There is an alternative truth.

Speaker 3 And I just see this as an attempt to try and mimic what a lot of people, one of the things I love about Wikipedia, I was also, I was freaked out when my Wikipedia page went up because I thought there's no taking it down.

Speaker 3 That's the thing about a Wikipedia page. It goes up.
And then what really struck me was some misinformation went up. It said, you know, it's, it said one of my companies was now defunct.

Speaker 3 I'm like, you know, no, it's not. It's still, that company is still going.
Other people wade in. It's a community-based thing.
And if you show your notes and your work, you get to edit a page.

Speaker 3 So it's like this, this kind of user-generated, but they do try to pursue the truth. I find it actually quite apolitical, which I like.

Speaker 3 And what you see here, what you see here is they're saying shit like,

Speaker 3 instead of showing suggestions for gay pornography,

Speaker 3 it falsely suggests that porn exacerbated the HIV AIDS epidemic in the 80s.

Speaker 3 I mean, something like that, that's just not helpful.

Speaker 2 Why is he doing it?

Speaker 3 I care if he's helpful scott like really seriously yeah but i think you said this i think something happened to the guy and he's traumatized and angry at the left and wants i mean he's talking about he keeps going on and on about a white genocide he's just i i i mean i i i use a lot of examples for how the term genocide has been perverted and overused in a lot of different regions of the world but there's very few perversions that are less egregious or laughable than that right now there is a white genocide taking place.

Speaker 2 He's like a plot of White Lotus at this point. Like, you know,

Speaker 2 between him and David Ellison, they look like the new next cast of White Lotus. So

Speaker 2 why would he do this? Getting it on the action?

Speaker 3 Truth, predict.

Speaker 3 Well, so they've got to do something. The social media, okay, this is their second pivot.
The social media company doesn't work. No one's going there.

Speaker 3 So they pivoted to become a Bitcoin treasury company and they took their cash and bought Bitcoin. That's sort of working, not really.
So their next pivot is to become

Speaker 3 a betting market because there is, actually, I do think there's opportunity for new players there. And you're going to see Polymarket or Calci go out in a monster IPO.

Speaker 3 These things are the new casino, but they feel less dirty. Like, oh, it's about politics.
So it's not just gambling.

Speaker 2 Yeah. They do everything.
They don't just do politics.

Speaker 3 But on his...

Speaker 3 I mean, okay, so, but I got to give it to the guy. The stock is up 10% this week and 22% up this year.
Tesla, the fact they're able to keep this thing in the air just amazing. This is Tesla.

Speaker 3 Yeah, this is just amazing. And his stock package,

Speaker 3 he's looking for a grant of up to 12% of outstanding Tesla stock, which could feasibly be worth a $1 trillion package if the company hits a market value of $8.6 trillion, which I think is up to six or seven fold.

Speaker 3 I actually, I think one of the things about capitalism that I think works is you can't get in the way. I don't think you should get in the way of limiting compensation at a gross level.

Speaker 3 I think you should continue to publish statistics showing what multiple of the average worker's salary the CEO makes.

Speaker 3 But I think one of the intoxicating things in the incentives that works in the United States is that there's no limit on the upside.

Speaker 2 Well, here's the only thing. This is, look, first of all, it's offensive to people.
That's part of it. I mean, the whole like hand-waving part of it is offensive to people.

Speaker 2 So he knows he's doing that. He knows he's trolling people.

Speaker 2 The other thing is, if it gets an internal CEO, we will all value it at what it's worth, right? It will not get the Elon bump and

Speaker 2 it's not selling as many cars and it's not as good and it will become what it's worth, correct? A very good car company that has seen better days. And, you know, one of the things that it's cost,

Speaker 2 there was another Yale study out showing that his involvement is costing them, I guess, 1 million cars or something, some number. It was a massive number.

Speaker 2 So he's also a downside candidate. I think him out of there would be great for Tesla as a car company.

Speaker 3 But you're right, not for the stock. But where I was going with this $1 trillion pay package.
And you did something you almost never do. You didn't let me finish.
That's really unlike you.

Speaker 2 Oh, yeah, right. Do you like to see the statistics on the talking of this show?

Speaker 3 I love what you say. You say, no, you always say, is there a period coming? Anyways,

Speaker 2 73%, Scott, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 I occupy 73% of the words. That's right.
Is that right? Yes, you do.

Speaker 2 Yes, that's correct.

Speaker 3 Oh, now I feel shamed.

Speaker 2 Don't worry about it.

Speaker 3 Anyways, where I was going with it is I like the idea

Speaker 3 of some of CEOs and people making extraordinary amounts of money at a gross level. I also believe,

Speaker 3 and this book kind of changed my life, you know, Daniel Kahneman's,

Speaker 3 you know, thinking fast and slow and

Speaker 3 his research around money, above a certain amount, you don't get any happier. And the whole point of a good tax is a tax that is the least taxing possible.

Speaker 3 I believe the two least taxing taxes are the following. Over $10 million in revenue or from stock option income, from current income or from stock trades or selling your stock in Tesla.

Speaker 3 I believe we should have an AMT of 60 or 70%. And everyone grabs their pearls when they hear that.
That's the tax rate for the people. I just grabbed my pearls, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 That's the tax rate for people making over a certain amount of money for the majority of the last century, folks, when income inequality was not as out of control, when people felt better about America, when we weren't cutting off food payments to kids.

Speaker 3 So I just don't, because here's the thing: the person who's being taxed at 60%,

Speaker 3 who made $2 billion

Speaker 3 in equity grants, they're no less happy. But that $2 billion

Speaker 3 divided among, call it,

Speaker 3 you know, 100,000 households, that's $20,000. $20,000 in universal child care credits, food stamps, vocational training, Pelton.
Everybody's happy. That makes them significantly happier.

Speaker 3 And then the other one I can't stand is we should eliminate the deduction,

Speaker 3 pull the deduction on inheritance tax down from 30 million to 1 million. If your kid inherits 7 million instead of 11, he or she is no less happy.

Speaker 3 And there's going to be such an immense transfer of wealth. And that needs, a lot of that needs to be reinvested back in the middle class.
Anyways, my point is.

Speaker 2 Gosh, you know who you sound like? Zoran Mandami. But go ahead.

Speaker 3 He hasn't talked about any of this shit. You mean, what, government-sponsored?

Speaker 2 When you said 60%, I was like, ow, no.

Speaker 3 I think taxes should be lowered on what I'll call the working wealthy. I think taxes should be lowered on Kara Swisher.

Speaker 3 You make an exceptional living, but living in D.C., you're probably paying 51% of your income to taxes. That is correct.

Speaker 3 Whereas, I'm self-conscious saying this, Scott Galloway, who now makes all of his money from selling stocks and is a Florida resident, I'm paying about 20%.

Speaker 3 I know. That makes no fucking sense.

Speaker 2 Your fair share.

Speaker 3 That makes no fucking sense. I would agree.

Speaker 2 In fact, I think you should write me a check. That's what I think should happen.

Speaker 3 Anyway, make a trillion dollars, just put 600 billion of it back in the treasury.

Speaker 2 Is he going to get that? I think it's going to happen.

Speaker 3 They're all against it. I think the board.
I think it's going to get most of it so the board can say we took a stand and didn't give him what he wanted. And I think he'll get most of it.

Speaker 2 But a lot of these groups, the shareholders are rejecting it.

Speaker 2 Will he quit? He'll quit, right? Presumably.

Speaker 3 Yeah, but you'd have to get over 50. These shareholder votes, sometimes they're non-binding.
I haven't looked at the bylaws.

Speaker 3 But for example, every year, Sir Martin Sorrell's pay package was rejected by the shareholders of WPP, and he was like, honey badger, don't give a shit.

Speaker 3 And then they'd go back, and then the next 11 months of the year would click by and no one cared.

Speaker 2 But he cares. If he loses, he's going to stock off.
I know, but he'll stock off.

Speaker 3 But these shareholder votes are typically non-binding.

Speaker 3 It's the board that is supposed to take them into into consideration and the compensation committee, which by the, by the, by the way, I still maintain the hardest thing as a manager or the hardest thing for me, harder than clients, harder than hiring and firing, compensation.

Speaker 3 Compensation. It is so difficult to figure out the right number, keep people motivated, be fair, have the money to manage the company.
How much do you pay employees versus shareholder? It's really...

Speaker 2 So is he going to get this?

Speaker 3 I think he's going to get most of it.

Speaker 3 I don't think he he wants to give up the mantle at Tesla.

Speaker 3 Also, if he leaves, and I think he probably knows this, if this company starts trading like an automobile company, it loses 90% of his value and the majority of his net worth is in this company.

Speaker 2 Yeah, he's got to stay there. Stop whining.

Speaker 3 So they both, quite frankly, it's a bit of a suicide pact. And that is the board knows if he leaves.
The board's, here's the good news for him. He's invaluable to the company.
Here's the bad news.

Speaker 3 He's invaluable to the company. Correct.
And the majority of his net worth is tied up in Tesla. This board will do a symbolic haircut.

Speaker 3 They'll give him, you know, 50, 70, 80% of the trillion dollar potential upside he's asking for.

Speaker 3 But this board, and I've seen this happen, they have made so much fucking money with this guy, they all want to name their first child after him.

Speaker 3 You know, these are these executives on the company, I mean, they're talented executives who.

Speaker 2 But they're not that talented.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, they're probably people who are really good at what they do, had three or five million dollars, and now they're buying fucking yachts because they met this crazy guy.

Speaker 2 yeah we're talking to you robin denholm possibly the most egregious board chairman of history but you made a lot of money good for you robin anyway uh let's go on a quick break when we come back we'll talk about the latest tech earnings we're going to run through them really quick

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Speaker 2 Scott, we're back. It's time to do some rapid-fire highlights of the latest tech earnings.
First up, Microsoft, the company's Azure Cloud Service. Saw revenue jumped 40% in the quarter.
Amazing.

Speaker 2 And a total revenue rose 18%.

Speaker 2 Shares are up around 2% as of the last five days of the taping. As for Meta, the company saw a 26% rise in sales year over year and net income of $2.7 billion.

Speaker 2 Impressive, impressive, which, but it still didn't meet expectations.

Speaker 2 Meta blamed the net income shortfall and one-time tax bill, but also warned of growing capital expenditure and spending enormous amounts of money on AI. Shares are down 12% at the time of the taping.

Speaker 2 They got a real haircut there. Lastly, Alphabet, the Google parent company, saw a 16% jump in third-quarter revenue, topping $100 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.

Speaker 2 Really amazing, really impressive. Cloud revenue for the year rose 35% from last year, a little less than Microsoft's.
Shares are up around 3%

Speaker 2 at the time of the taping. Anything sticking out for you? And we'll note that earnings for Apple and Amazon are coming out after we record today.

Speaker 2 By the way, Amazon's laying off 14,000 corporate workers as it invests more in AI.

Speaker 2 But any thoughts on

Speaker 2 not, we'll talk about Apple and Amazon next

Speaker 2 week, but what do you think about these three, the three biggies?

Speaker 3 Nothing short of extraordinary. Advertising revenue at Meta up 26%.
And you want to know why your employer is dying, CNN, or your partner, CNN? Instagram video time was up 30%.

Speaker 3 Up 30%.

Speaker 2 Much of that is me watching it, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 I hate to say this. I'm embarrassed to say this.
People constantly ask me,

Speaker 3 what are your sources of news? And I always say the BBC, the FT, and The Economist, which is all a fucking lie. But you do watch those.
I subscribe to them so I can signal.

Speaker 3 For me, they're self-expressive benefits.

Speaker 2 I read those, but go ahead.

Speaker 3 When I go to breakfast at the Crosby, I take my FT because I think it makes me look smarter than I am. And I barely read it because my eyes are going.

Speaker 3 And then I go back and I watch reels on my phone and I watch The Geo Hussar or Justin Wolfers or a reel from Some Economist or YouTube or David Frum or

Speaker 3 and these little two and three minute hits. of really thoughtful people on YouTube and Instagram, that is now where I'm getting my news.

Speaker 2 I hate to admit. You and I both.

Speaker 3 You and me both. And they will take the best articles and they'll summarize them for them and they'll put someone better looking to explain the article or more articulate.

Speaker 3 Remember when the New York Times started doing video about 10 years ago? It was like, oh my God,

Speaker 3 that guy writes so much more handsome than he is.

Speaker 3 You know, you think.

Speaker 2 That's why they glowed up Ezra. They're trying to glow up Ross do hat, but that's impossible.

Speaker 3 When you find someone like Ezra who's handsome and kind of dreamy in sort of a metrosexual way.

Speaker 2 He wasn't even close to this dreamy. They've glowed him up.

Speaker 3 Or but like an Andrew Ross Sorkin, because I worked with a lot of these journalists of the New York Times and I'm like, Jesus Christ, swipe left a billion times. Yeah.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 And then they put him on camera thinking everyone would want to talk to the journalist. And you're like, no.
God. No.
Anyways.

Speaker 3 Anyway.

Speaker 2 So get back to the revenues.

Speaker 3 These are kids who are traumatized and

Speaker 3 found refuge at the day.

Speaker 3 All right, get back to the revenues.

Speaker 2 Cloud revenues up. Everything.
The stocks are not that up. The stocks are sort of up.

Speaker 3 People are anticipating this.

Speaker 3 The CapEx at Meta, you got to give it to him. He is not afraid to make unbelievable investment.

Speaker 3 As a result, though, the operating margins fell to 40% from 48. CapEx reached 38% of revenue.
That is crazy. I mean, Apple, I think, is in the high single digits most of its life.

Speaker 2 Mark, I'm going to pay you a comment. You are a baller.
I have to say, he's like, I'm going this way.

Speaker 3 He's not there.

Speaker 2 That's what control is about. He has full control of that company, so he can do whatever he wants.

Speaker 3 He's arguably, he's one of the great business minds of the last hundred years. Unfortunately, he's done more damage to young people

Speaker 3 more money than almost any person in history.

Speaker 2 Thank you for noting that.

Speaker 3 So, okay, their CapEx drew the harshest market reaction. He doesn't care.

Speaker 3 If you look at their valuation, it's up 25% year to date. It has some show-me risks now, but for the most part, it's just unbelievable and had can make these staggering investments.

Speaker 3 They have the cash flow alphabet. The thing that really struck me here, okay, cloud revenue, 34%, up 34%, net income up 33%,

Speaker 3 their income up 16%, and all of this fear, this existential risk of AI is going to ruin the search business. The search business was up 15%

Speaker 3 this quarter.

Speaker 2 Because they have a lot of AI embedded in it now.

Speaker 3 It's not only growing, it's growing faster. Paid clicks increased 7% year on year.
I mean,

Speaker 3 Google Cloud backlog.

Speaker 2 I got to say their AI is getting better, isn't it? When you search now on Google.

Speaker 3 They're like, no need to go to ChatGPT. Here we'll go.

Speaker 2 Let me say it was terrible and now it's good. I don't say it's as good.
It's not as good as ChatGPT. It's not.
It's not.

Speaker 3 Their Google Cloud backlog, which is basically business that they've signed up, was up 46% quarter on quarter, up 82% year on year.

Speaker 3 Over 70% of existing cloud customers now use Google AI products, and the company signed more than a billion dollars in deals this year than the prior two years combined.

Speaker 3 It's also their cloud, unlike the Amazon cloud, which AWS has had a real issue with,

Speaker 3 which is still the number one by gross dollar volume. But what Gemini

Speaker 3 has done, which is really smart, is they have made it, quote unquote, the AI cloud, and it's become the preferred platform for AI workloads.

Speaker 3 Google offers AI startups $350,000 in cloud credits, access to its technical teams and go-to-market support. And nine out of the top 10 AI labs use Google's infrastructure.

Speaker 2 Can I make a note?

Speaker 2 Many years ago, when AI, when Amazon pulled forward in the cloud market, I had lunch with Sundar Pichai, who was the CEO, and I was like, You really missed the boat on this cloud thing.

Speaker 2 And he was like, We did because we were using our cloud for our own search service, right? And he's like, We had so much business over here, we didn't pay attention.

Speaker 2 I'm like, You should go in a cloud, like you missed the cloud turn. And since then, I have to say, they have recovered rather nicely, I would say.

Speaker 3 Look, in Microsoft, a revenue on a big number up 18%. Azure, again, as goes the cloud, goes the stock in the company.

Speaker 3 Azure revenue, their cloud offering was up 39% year on year, topping Wall Street's 37% estimate. Azure remains the core growth driver for the company.

Speaker 3 He expects to double, thatch has said he expects to double its data center footprint over the next two years.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 these companies, there's just no getting around it. They're extraordinarily well run.

Speaker 2 Stocker seems flat, flat. Like this, you think it's going to keep running up?

Speaker 3 Well, I've said this over and over. It was my big tech stock pick for 2025.
It's up 62% in the last 12 months. So I think it's, let me put it this way, the buying opportunity is over.

Speaker 3 It was trading at a P of 17, which made no sense. And now I bet it's up in the hike 20s.
So I don't,

Speaker 3 you know, I don't, I don't think it makes,

Speaker 3 let me put this way. I was a buyer last year.
I'm not a buyer right now. I'm not a seller either, but I'm not a buyer right now.
It's come up.

Speaker 3 It was undervalued a year ago because of the quote-unquote existence. Everyone thought within a year, OpenAI, that Google search, and it had gone from like 99, 91 to 89.

Speaker 3 Everyone thought it was going to go to 50. It hasn't.
Google search gets 96 times the traffic of ChatGPT. It's big.

Speaker 2 It's big. And they've managed to be, you know, credit to, apparently, Sergey Brin's spending a lot more time there.

Speaker 2 Credit to them for coming back from that or making certain that they didn't get their lunch eaten um in any case uh last thing um uh cnn has launched its new subscription streaming service the service will be like quote close sibling of cnn's cable product offering access to select live programming for 6.99 a month uh it's not really cnn plue i i think it's how is it any different exactly

Speaker 3 how is it any different it's not it's not except now it's

Speaker 3 love and mark thompson it's cnn

Speaker 2 with cn remember when it was plue and i said how can you have CNN Plus without CNN? This has CNN.

Speaker 3 Oh, okay. Yeah.

Speaker 3 That's it. They have to do this, seven bucks a month, and subscribers will be able to access.

Speaker 3 My idea, and this was an idea that I said to Zara, you should have a bug on CNN on their streaming thing

Speaker 3 where you're just live streaming live CNN.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 Mark Thompson implement, this is typically what happens with managers. You have

Speaker 3 one, you have a business that works works and you think that's the playbook for the rest of your life.

Speaker 3 And he, to Mark Thompson's credit, he moved the company, he moved New York Times from an ad-based model to not an entirely subscription-based model.

Speaker 3 But the stock run up in the New York Times, which has been strong, not exceptional, but stock was largely because the revenue mix moved much more to subscription under the leadership of Mark Thompson.

Speaker 3 The problem is it just may be

Speaker 3 too late. CNN is struggling, even in comparison with other dying cable news networks.
In the September primetime slot, get this. Fox News averaged 2.5 million viewers.
That's flat.

Speaker 3 MSNBC, 810,000, down 43%.

Speaker 3 And CNN averaged 543,000, down 36%.

Speaker 3 And in the coveted 25 to 54-year-old demo, which is all advertised,

Speaker 3 the people buying their product, advertisers, they only care about people 25 to 54.

Speaker 3 Fox News averaged 280,000 in the core demo down 14%. CNN averaged, get this, Kara, 87,000.

Speaker 2 Yeah, we're bigger. I know.

Speaker 3 And MSNBC averaged 68,000.

Speaker 3 If you look at our downloads plus our video views, we're averaging, I think, around 350 or 400,000. 60% to 70%.

Speaker 3 of our listeners are in the core demo. So we're getting about 150 or 200,000 in the core demo versus MSNBC and CNN at 60,000.

Speaker 2 Our tiny little selves. We have like six.
We can fit everyone around these things. Literally, no one.
Table. We did fit everyone around a table at lunch.

Speaker 3 And I flew back. I flew back with Van Jones last night, and he said something really interesting.

Speaker 3 He said, all we're doing is bringing on people, encouraging them to yell at each other such that it gets clipped and goes on social and goes viral. Yeah, which is

Speaker 2 funny.

Speaker 3 Which we know. But what he said that I thought was really insightful, he said, just two years ago, occasionally we would make news live.

Speaker 3 Something would happen live on the program that would make news and change things instead it's like how do we get this on reels and on tick tock and then it starts having an impact they're all just essentially a content creation machine hoping to get to clear the hurdle such that it goes viral on one of these platforms not a moneymaker that's for sure i don't think they'll sell many of these i gotta say i don't know i think it's all like look they're all gonna get bought up all together whether it's comcast or david ellison it's a trophy property though you know nepo money there is

Speaker 3 There's got to be a Nepo billionaire who's a Democrat who's going to want CNN and B Wing to pay for it.

Speaker 2 Unless Ellison gets it. And then it just disappears.

Speaker 3 But what about a guy like Michael Bloomberg? Why wouldn't he buy CNN? I don't know. He's been a great steward of Bloomberg News.
He's moderate. He has the money.
I don't know.

Speaker 2 I just, I don't think they're really big businesses. That's all.
I think they're little businesses. Anyway,

Speaker 2 one more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions.

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Speaker 2 Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. What's your prediction? I predict we're going to have a great tour coming up.
It's one more week. That's right.

Speaker 2 And by the way, I predict your book is going to be at the top of the New York Times best side.

Speaker 3 You're very generous.

Speaker 2 Thank you for saying that. By the way, can I just make an insight before you start? The back cover, is that your back cover that you sent? That is wonderful.
It's a picture of Scott as a teenager.

Speaker 2 I don't know how old you are, 12, 13.

Speaker 3 13. Yeah.

Speaker 2 13.

Speaker 2 And you. And I love it.
I thought it was both Amanda and I were like, wow, that was really good. Oh, thank you.

Speaker 3 That's all.

Speaker 2 It's a wonder. I didn't see the back cover.
I love it. I love it.

Speaker 3 It's all Catherine Dillon. My partner for the last 15 years in business has been a professor of the arts at the Tisch School named Catherine Dillon.
And she's a creative.

Speaker 2 Well done, Catherine.

Speaker 3 She teaches visual design, and she's essentially run.

Speaker 3 my companies in addition to being a great manager everything we do just has a certain level of aesthetic strength it's very touching actually it's very hard to pull that off but it was very touching thank you um

Speaker 3 so look, my prediction is the following. AI is now absolutely the equivalent of corporate Ozempic.

Speaker 3 And that is what Ozempic or GLP1 drugs do is they turn off the switch, kind of the instinctual switch, that if there's food in front of you, you need to keep eating.

Speaker 3 And I hadn't realized how obvious or how linear when you're on a board.

Speaker 3 And the CEO is planning the next year and trying to get approval on CapEx and hiring, he or she will come in and say, our plan is to grow grow revenues 8%.

Speaker 3 And that means we're going to grow our headcount 6% because that'll increase profits by, you know, 8 or 12%.

Speaker 3 And there was always a correlation. And if they came in and said, business is tough, I think revenues are going to be down 8% next year, then, okay, we need to lay off between 6% and 12%.

Speaker 3 So the corporate growth number, the hunger, if you will, was always matched by how much calories you were going to intake or get rid of.

Speaker 3 And then Meta said, using AI for better targeting, they announced what I still believe is one of the most seminal earnings quarters in history. They said, okay, we

Speaker 3 grew 20%. I'm sorry, we grew 23% last year with 20% fewer people.

Speaker 3 So there's this entirely different gestalt in corporate America, especially among information age companies that says, wait, just because I'm growing, doesn't need, I mean, doesn't necessarily mean I need to eat more.

Speaker 3 I don't need calories. I don't need more people.
As a matter of fact, I may need, I may be able to pull off the ultimate gangster move for shareholders here.

Speaker 3 I'm not saying it's good for society, is that I can grow while reducing my headcount. So Amazon announced that they were

Speaker 3 doing a restructuring, 30,000 corporate job cuts, roughly 10% of its white-collar workforce. They say they're aiming to reduce bureaucracy.

Speaker 3 Do you realize Amazon has said on the retail unit that they think they can maintain the same level of top-level revenue or they can double their top line revenue by 2032 or 33 while maintaining the same headcount?

Speaker 3 That's insane. That's insane.
So I think you're the corporate Ozempicking of AI is already underway.

Speaker 3 The number of managers dropped 6.1% between May 2022 and May 25, while executive level roles fell 4.6%.

Speaker 3 The average supervisor now manages six direct reports, double the number five years ago, and Amazon isn't the only one. Meta cut 600 workers inside its AI division.

Speaker 3 Salesforce eliminated 4,000 support roles. Chegg reduced staff by 45%.
Klarna downsized 40%. Duolingo plans to replace contractors with AI.
Target 1,800 people. Paramount, 1,000.
Intel, 24,000.

Speaker 3 Nestle, 16,000. All announced reductions.
And so some of this is a bit misleading because these companies went on a hiring spree after the pandemic, but these moves are still

Speaker 3 pretty big. And as the market normalizes, more workers are now moving down the ladder.
17% of workers who changed employers saw a pay cut in 2024. That's up from 15% in 2023.

Speaker 3 The share of job changers taking a pay cut was even higher for tech, 18%, managers, 22%, and managers transitioning to individual computer contributor roles was 32%.

Speaker 3 So

Speaker 3 look,

Speaker 3 the hard part is who's next. So I have some companies that I think are going to announce multi-thousand dollar, excuse me, multi-thousand person layoffs.
And I did a screen here.

Speaker 3 I spent some time on this.

Speaker 3 Etsy, Pinterest, Apple, Airbnb, PayPal, and HubSpot, I believe, and this is my prediction, along with a raft of other information age darlings, are going to announce 1,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 person layoffs in the next 90 days.

Speaker 2 Oh, wow. That's a big one.
In that vein, I'm going to have to be laying you off, Scott.

Speaker 3 I knew it was coming.

Speaker 3 I knew it was coming.

Speaker 3 I knew it was coming.

Speaker 2 Yeah, that's a good one.

Speaker 3 I like that.

Speaker 2 I love that. That's a great one.
That's a great prediction.

Speaker 3 And just to add on this, this has real societal implications because unfortunately,

Speaker 3 what you have is one of the greatest threats to democracies right now is that the ratio of young people who are productive and pay more than their fair share of taxes is getting flipped upside down in terms of its ratio to old people who are unproductive and don't pay their fair share.

Speaker 3 And without, it used to be 12 to 1 workers to Social Security recipients. Now it's 3 to 1.

Speaker 3 And if it goes much lower than that, we're not going to have the money. 40% of our entire budget now goes to payments for seniors.

Speaker 3 And unfortunately, our tax code encourages in our stock market, which drives everything, is now encouraging people to hire robots, not people.

Speaker 3 And the thing about robots, Kara, they don't pay Social Security or payroll taxes.

Speaker 2 Yeah, we're going to tax them.

Speaker 3 We've got to tax them. We've got to tax them.
We've got to start taxing robots.

Speaker 2 That was a Bill Gates idea.

Speaker 2 can i just say in this nature of what you're saying is i sent ale alex is um doing great in school and he's a he's a mechanical engineer i think he'll be just fine but um i i sent him the note about gm laying off a whole bunch of people too in the ev area that largely because of the tax credits uh etc he goes i love how all young people are being out-competed by experienced workers and ai so there is a zero opportunity for even the most qualified do you think we are totally cooked as a generation which was an interesting and he'll do fine is the thing.

Speaker 2 But it was an interesting thing for him to write me, I thought.

Speaker 3 Yeah, but this is what you have is labor and opportunity and equality. And that is your son is frighteningly bright.

Speaker 3 He's big, he's strong, and he's going to graduate from Michigan with a degree in computer science.

Speaker 2 Mechanical engineering.

Speaker 3 Okay, even better. Which basically means when you show up from Michigan with a degree in mechanical engineering, I don't care if you're interviewing at Warner Brothers or Google.
They just want you.

Speaker 3 Because the assumption is this kid is really curious and really smart smart and really hardworking. There's no way of faking mechanical engineering in Michigan.

Speaker 3 There's no way of, they're going to go, oh, he's a Nepo baby.

Speaker 3 He's a Nepo baby. I recognize that name, but he's clearly one of these kids who's who, despite being born a Nepo baby, is really hardworking and really smart.

Speaker 2 Let me tell you, I don't help him at all. He's so brilliant.
But I'm just saying, but that's his mentality. Like, you know what I mean?

Speaker 2 Like, a lot of younger people, even someone as qualified as Alex, is worried. They're worried.

Speaker 3 But this is the reality.

Speaker 3 A kid like that garners a disproportionate amount of wealth at a young age. There's more opportunity for Alex is in the 1%.

Speaker 3 There has never been a better time to be a 20 or 22 year old in the top 1%. There's never been a worse time to be in the bottom 90.

Speaker 3 And that is the kids who come out of a decent school, but not a great school, but had a lot of student debt and are good, but not great, a lot of us. I would have been fucked.

Speaker 3 I was not especially impressive at 22. And I got a job at Morgan Stanley Stanley because I lied about my grades and talked my way.
And I'm a good interviewer. And I rode crew.

Speaker 3 And the guy who ran the fixed income department rode crew.

Speaker 3 But in this age, if you don't have your shit together, if you're not one of the top 1%, and the problem is we all delude ourselves into thinking our kids are in the top 1%.

Speaker 3 And I can prove to every parent, 90% of our children, 99% of our children are not in the top 1%.

Speaker 3 So the inequality.

Speaker 3 I say this in my class. It's never been easier to be a billionaire.
I say, look around. My classes are 160 kids.
Two or three of you are going to be billionaires through tech, alternative investments.

Speaker 3 I said, but unfortunately, there's probably about 10 or 15 of you who are going to be living with your parents at 30.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Yeah.
Well, let's hope Alex is one of those billionaires because then I will live high on the high.

Speaker 3 Go to Korea a lot for treatments.

Speaker 2 He promised me he'd buy me a house with a roller coaster if he got really rich, which I'm very excited for.

Speaker 3 I was not expecting that.

Speaker 2 Anyway, we have to move on because guess what? I'm going to be interviewing Scott Galloway really soon. That's right.

Speaker 2 On.

Speaker 2 Talk about his book. Anyway, we want to hear from you.
Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

Speaker 2 Go to nymag.com/slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, gosh, you interviewed someone you made fun of on 60 Minutes recently.

Speaker 2 This week on Profit Markets, Scott spoke with Andrew Ross Sorkin about his new book, 1929, Inside the Greatest Crash in the World.

Speaker 3 I'm making fun of Leslie Stahl, not anyway.

Speaker 2 All right, Wall Street history and how it shattered a nation. Let's listen to Clip from our favorite Canadian.

Speaker 3 The truth is

Speaker 8 that,

Speaker 8 you know, over time,

Speaker 8 the market goes up. You know, a lot of people, by the way, since this book came out, they said, oh, Andrew, you know, you're calling for a crash.
It's all going to end terribly. What are you saying?

Speaker 8 And the truth is that you can have all the Cassandra's in the room

Speaker 8 saying the sky is going to fall, but over time, things have gone up.

Speaker 8 And I do think that's worth noting because being a professional optimist has been a better business than being a professional skeptic.

Speaker 8 Again, over time.

Speaker 2 Covering his ass on that one.

Speaker 3 He's actually pretty

Speaker 3 bold, though. He's not afraid to make statements about CNBC.

Speaker 3 Yeah, no, I love first, I want Andrew to run for Mayor of New York. And two,

Speaker 3 I want Andrew to be the trustee for my estate. I think he's just such an honorable, smart, nice man.

Speaker 2 It's a great book. I have it.
It's really terrific, actually. I love those historical books.
And he's a, we love Andrew. We love you.

Speaker 3 Seven years.

Speaker 2 We love you.

Speaker 2 We want you to father all our children.

Speaker 3 To imagine he does all this while maintaining a status as an undercover, undercover operative for the Canadian intelligence

Speaker 3 unit. I mean, it's really impressive.
He's able to balance all this. Yeah.

Speaker 2 Yep. And he does all the pickup and drop off at preschool.
Anyway,

Speaker 2 speaking of Canada, we're going on tour. We are sold out in Toronto, Boston, and San Francisco, but we still have just a, I think, a few tickets in D.C., not very many.

Speaker 2 Some in New York is a big place, and LA and Chicago. Please visit pivottour.com for tickets, especially you, Chicago.
It's a very big venue.

Speaker 2 We've got a big venue because you're such big shoulder people, but come see us there. Okay, that's the show.
Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Speaker 1 We'll be back next week.

Speaker 2 Scott, read us out.

Speaker 3 Today's show is produced by Lara Neyman, Zoe, Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher. Ernie Unertod engineered this episode.
Manala Moreno edited the video.

Speaker 3 Thanks also to Ju Burrows, Missourio, and Dan Shalan. Nishak Kuro is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.
Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

Speaker 3 Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/slash pod.

Speaker 3 We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. I'll see you in a few hours.

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