Trump’s Controversial Picks, Bluesky’s Pop, and Spotify’s Subscriber Jump

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Speaker 3 All right, I'm going to go make some tea back behind me. Get to see my underwear.

Speaker 4 Oh, Jesus Christ, Kara.

Speaker 3 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher, and I'm still not over my cold, Scott. I'm really sorry.
I apologize.

Speaker 4 And in a twist of fate, I'm the one that's going to file the sexual harassment suit. We have had to watch you walk around in briefs or underwear or whatever the fuck that is.

Speaker 3 Briefs. Men's briefs.
I wear men's briefs.

Speaker 4 Yeah.

Speaker 4 Men's briefs. Jesus, Kara.

Speaker 3 I love them. They're like shorts.

Speaker 3 It's like a bathing suit.

Speaker 4 That's something to be enjoyed when the camera is off.

Speaker 3 I understand, but you demanded that I make myself tea so I don't sound quite as bad. But it's very early in the morning.
I'm in San Francisco. That's where I am.
Yeah?

Speaker 4 You actually look nice. You look spry.

Speaker 3 Thank you. I am spry.
I think I'm still on East Coast time, though.

Speaker 4 So speaking of spry, I'm in New York. Yeah.
Back to me. Okay.
I'm in New York.

Speaker 3 Are you wearing underwear?

Speaker 4 I am wearing underwear. Okay, good.

Speaker 4 I'm going to go, Commando. Big Ed and the Twins need a little support.
Anyone should have that.

Speaker 3 Yeah,

Speaker 3 don't do Commando. It's such a mistake.

Speaker 4 Always. Come to New York, you know, London five hours ahead.
So I discovered something I just didn't think existed, and that is people are actually up at 6 a.m. and at Equinox.

Speaker 4 I went to Equinox at 6.30, 11.30 my time. Oh.
All of these horrible people that are super productive and get up, the gym was packed of these handsome, these gorgeous gay men who clearly have jobs.

Speaker 4 I didn't know those existed in New York. I thought everyone just had rich parents or like, I don't know, just writing a script or something.
The gym was packed.

Speaker 4 There are morning people out there, Kara.

Speaker 3 There are. Why did you go? What was going on? Did you just have nothing? I'm jet lagged.

Speaker 4 It was 11.30 my time. I'm like, I couldn't sleep.
I'm up at 5 a.m. I'm like, what I'll do? I'll go to the gym.

Speaker 3 What did you do? What was your routine?

Speaker 4 My routine?

Speaker 4 I do these lame old.

Speaker 4 Two years ago, I was literally doing CrossFit. Now I'm like, have one of those things that goes around your waist and jiggles you.
And I use like a little arm roller on my arm fat.

Speaker 3 Oh, I love those.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I'm joking. I don't do that.
But I can't, it's hard for me to do weights now. I do a lot of band work, which is sort of lame, but good for my shoulders.
And I do, I row a lot.

Speaker 4 And then I try and do like, you know, some dumbbell work. I love, the thing I miss most is I love pull-ups, and it's hard for me to do pull-ups now.

Speaker 3 Anyways. Oh, yeah, because your shoulder, it'll knock your shoulder out.
Do you still have trainers and things like that in London?

Speaker 4 Oh, Kara, I have an army of people trying to keep me alive.

Speaker 3 Trying to keep you young.

Speaker 4 I am supporting the UK economy, whether it's my NAD treatments or somebody come over and like my physical therapist or, yeah, no, I'm a big keeping Scott from falling apart.

Speaker 4 I'm a big fan of the services industry. They're basically paid friends.
They talk to me and like, how are you doing? Or they're really supportive. They're like, oh, I saw you on the daily show.

Speaker 4 You were genius. I'm like, what's that? I'm sorry.
Come again. They're just really supportive, nice people.

Speaker 3 Do you remember in in Florida when Alex worked out with you? Now he's really built. Alex is like built, like you can't believe now.

Speaker 4 He's white LeBron. The guy's a fucking specimen.

Speaker 3 I know he really is. Like, he works out now.
He did, but they have a little gym in the bottom of their frat. That's where he, and he does it by himself.
Just

Speaker 4 I love it, though. He looks.
And by the way, there's a lesson here. I really do believe that any man under the age of 30,

Speaker 4 our bone structure, our double twitch muscle, and then this amazing substance called testosterone flows over it.

Speaker 4 I think any man under the age of 30, and Alex has leaned into this, should be able to walk in any room and know that if shit got real, they could kill and eat everybody or outrun them.

Speaker 3 Okay, I don't want my son to do that.

Speaker 4 Well, I'm not suggesting you do that, but men who are really physically fit, if you ever see a guy break up a fight at a bar, it's the strongest guy in the room.

Speaker 3 Well, sometimes. Sometimes it's the strongest guy, some of those boneheads that are all jacked up causing it too, right?

Speaker 4 I have found the opposite, that when you get strong, you become more kind. And I think this has a lot to do with masculinity.
I think real men defend their country. They don't shit post it.

Speaker 4 Notice all the people that are trying to be macho by, show me someone.

Speaker 3 Let me put it this way.

Speaker 4 What do you think Stephen Miller looks like naked? Yeah, not good. He looks weak.

Speaker 3 Why did you put that in my head? Why did you just literally put that in my head?

Speaker 4 Look at all these tech bros who talk all big and macho and tough. You know, what do you think? What kind of shape do you think they're in? When you get strong.

Speaker 3 They're no Arnold Palmer. That's what I would say.
They're no Arnold Palmer.

Speaker 4 When you get strong, I really do believe this. I think you become more kind because you feel better about yourself and you're less insecure.

Speaker 3 I have to say, I encourage Alex to work out. And, you know, it's just good for his mental health for young people, I think, to have.
100%.

Speaker 3 Not just that, but just have other hobbies, do other things that aren't.

Speaker 4 work. And by the way, be more attractive to potential mates because

Speaker 4 it's not just much that, you know, big biceps. When you're physically fit, it says to potential mates, friends, and employers, I show up.
I'm disciplined. I can commit to something.
So I'm a huge fan.

Speaker 3 I am too. I have a trainer.
I go three times a week. I go.
I know you do.

Speaker 4 I love that. The first thing I saw Alex, we got on a boat, and the first thing I said is like, dude, take off your shirt.

Speaker 4 And he's like, gun shows in town.

Speaker 3 Listen, Matt Gates.

Speaker 4 He didn't even, he didn't even think that was weird that an old man was saying, take off your shirt. He's like, ripped it off and he's like, gun shows in town.

Speaker 3 He did think it was weird. He's just super polite and stuff like that.
So, you know, by the way, oh, did you hear about my Chris Wallace situation? He left the network in a flurry of flouncing.

Speaker 4 So Chris? Yeah, I heard Chris is out and that he's going into podcasting. I'm like, come on in, Chris.
The water's flying.

Speaker 4 Come on in.

Speaker 3 Anyway, they have us. They're pretending I have to tape tomorrow and they're pretending it didn't happen, which is why cable has a problem.

Speaker 3 I was like, I'm going to say, Chris, come over to podcasting. It'll be fun.
Good luck will kill you. But they don't want me to say that.

Speaker 4 Okay, so I have no inside information. I just know what's been reported.
First off, let me say.

Speaker 3 It's too expensive. They're all too expensive.
He's a great journalist.

Speaker 4 That's exactly right. Chris Wallace is an icon.
He's had an amazing career.

Speaker 4 And my understanding is based on what I've read in the trades, is that when CNN Plus was a thing and they wanted to bring him over,

Speaker 4 CNN Plue, they're paying an $8 million a year. And I bet they decided this guy's an icon.
He's amazing. And given the environment, we can pay him a million a year.

Speaker 4 And I think this is a conversation that is happening happening all across

Speaker 4 cable TV right now. It's when people's contracts are coming up, I think they're saying the following: Hoda, we love you.
We need you to take an 80% cut in pay. And Hoda's like, what?

Speaker 4 I'm going to go drink white wine and start a podcast.

Speaker 3 How can I keep up with my NID supplements?

Speaker 3 That's exactly right.

Speaker 4 So I would imagine, and I don't know this, they said to Chris, we love you. The economics of this business are just, do you realize? And I met with another guy

Speaker 4 who used to run CNN, a lovely guy. guy, and he said that 2020 versus 2024 viewership at CNN and the cable networks is down 50%.

Speaker 4 It is. It is.

Speaker 3 The numbers are tough. It's been cut in half.

Speaker 4 Cut in half, Kara?

Speaker 3 I, my God.

Speaker 4 I mean, a 50% decline in viewership, and I'm still just blown away by the fact that MSNBC, the typical viewer, is a seven-year-old white woman.

Speaker 3 It's like, okay.

Speaker 3 You know, it's interesting. I was just thinking, I'm thinking of that a lot because I was irritated because they're like, we're not going to discuss it on the show.
And I was like, why? It's funny.

Speaker 3 It's interesting. It's a cool topic.

Speaker 4 Where are you going, Chris?

Speaker 3 Yeah. Where are you going? Like, it's so stupid.
And they're pretending, like, we don't break the fourth wall was what I've been told. And I'm like, well, I do.
What's the fourth wall? I have no idea.

Speaker 3 It's like the wall.

Speaker 3 I was like, you can't have a relationship with viewers unless you tell them what's going on, right? Including about yourself. And it's a really cool discussion to have, if you're honest with yourself.

Speaker 4 100% super interesting.

Speaker 3 Interesting. Right.
And they're like, don't say anything. I'm like, oh my God, whatever.
It's your station if you want to run it that way, but put, you know, file it under death of cable television.

Speaker 3 But, um, but one of the things I think is interesting, do you remember when television only had one way to go? And then they went into streaming and all kinds of ways.

Speaker 3 I think that's where you are with cable. You can make interesting shows that become digital.

Speaker 3 I think Thompson has a very difficult situation ahead of him and continues to, as do all the cable companies, cable networks. But remember when TV was dying it was declining?

Speaker 3 It was broadcast television, but television wasn't, right? I mean, video,

Speaker 3 right? Video wasn't. So how do you then, how do you translate something like a CNN into something that's popular again, right? How do you get it to the right people?

Speaker 3 It's not like all the content is bad. Some of it's ridiculous, you know,

Speaker 3 but

Speaker 3 how do you do that? That's what's interesting to me. Like, does it have the same trajectory that broadcast television does, which has never been more vibrant, right?

Speaker 3 Netflix is worth a fortune, blah, blah, blah. Stuff like that.
I don't know. It's just an interesting, I think about this a lot.

Speaker 4 Standards are going to increase in value over the next two to three years because what they're probably going to do is reduce costs by 20 to 40 percent.

Speaker 4 And my fear or my cautionary tale, and Mark Thompson has not asked me this, but CEOs tend to look at their most successful season and try and replicate it, not recognizing the world has changed.

Speaker 4 And I'd be shocked if Mark Thompson wasn't thinking the following. I'm going to try and find

Speaker 4 and or create a bunch of incremental content that I can put behind a paywall because he's going to take the playbook that was very successful from the New York Times where they built a really nice subscription business by moving the paywall increasingly forward and having more subscription products.

Speaker 4 CNN, I don't think that's the right strategy. CNN still has the most traffic news site in the world.
That's worth a lot.

Speaker 3 He talks about that a lot.

Speaker 4 And because everyone has gone behind a paywall, because they listened to the market that valued every dollar from subscription at 3x, what they were valuing.

Speaker 3 Like a Netflix-like thing, right? 100%.

Speaker 4 So unfortunately, though, the the consumer has been trained that for every dollar a month you pay on subscriptions, you should get a billion dollars worth of content, whether it's Netflix or Spotify.

Speaker 4 I mean, those

Speaker 4 you want to talk about consumer value?

Speaker 4 Wait, I get $18 billion of content for $12 a month, and I get, I don't know, I don't know how you measure the dollar value of Spotify with every single podcast or music, music ever, song, ever written for whether it was $8.99 or $10 a month.

Speaker 4 That is the measuring stick for a consumer. Now, what has happened, and this is the opportunity, and this is why, you know,

Speaker 4 we decided every six months to say no to the idea of putting Pivot behind a paywall, is that advertisers still need a way to reach consumers.

Speaker 4 And the most valuable consumers are getting harder and harder to reach because between Netflix and Spotify, there's nowhere to find them with your ad on the release of Wicked or the new Range Rover or the new Air Jordan, whatever it is.

Speaker 4 So if you're in the business of good content that is ad supported, I think it's actually a pretty good time because all of these companies still need to find these consumers.

Speaker 3 I agree. I agree.
I find it really, there's a whole new way once you begin to cut. There, obviously there's rumors of layoffs, but then these spin-offs are interesting.
And then everything gets real.

Speaker 3 That's to me is like, once we understand the economics, we can figure out what's great, right?

Speaker 3 That doesn't, instead of being like bemoaning the end of like seven to $10 million anchor salaries, which just, I just sat there, I was like, all of you, like, not just Chris, you know, he does, he's a great journalist and everything else.

Speaker 3 And that was the way it was.

Speaker 3 But it's, it's like what can we do now with this right i see opportunity if you start to cut costs and just accept what's happening and then create great content because that that doesn't die it just reminds me of broad what happened to broadcast television in news i guess if that makes sense because it's still valuable like we're we're rising like crazy on the charts lots of news commentary and all of them if you look at these news commentary podcast not just podcast podcast slash video podcast charts they are all independent every one of them, practically.

Speaker 3 It's not from, you see an NBC news in there or something like that, but you largely see entrepreneurial efforts, which is especially from the right wing.

Speaker 4 Yeah, but Chris is such a, you know him better than I do.

Speaker 4 And by the way, thank you because I know Charis Fisher, he featured me in his show, Look Who's Talking to Chris Wallace, which I think had about 14 people watch it because I stuck it on HBO.

Speaker 4 But that was, I really enjoyed it. He's a fantastic interviewer.
His voice is wonderful. He's smart.
He's really an icon. It would just be so interesting, I think.
You know, it would be great content.

Speaker 3 What would be his podcast? Would you put him with a black lesbian from San Francisco? What do you do?

Speaker 4 What do you put him with? No, no, no, just a lesbian. I don't want to play identity politics, just a lesbian.

Speaker 3 Okay.

Speaker 4 Anyways, don't go there, Scott. Don't go there.

Speaker 4 Anyways, but the most interesting content you could have on Saturday morning was you guys asking Chris what happened and him in a transparent, authentic way, going through exactly what happened in his thought process and what he's planning on doing next, because

Speaker 4 this is where Chris is. He's highly prestigious, top of his game, but he's effectively a pilot for Pan Am Airlines in the 70s.

Speaker 3 He'll like that.

Speaker 4 And it's like, what do we do next? We're the man. We're banging stewardesses where people think we're really interesting.

Speaker 4 We're making $500,000 a year in the 70s.

Speaker 3 He's banging stewardesses.

Speaker 4 Well, you get what I'm saying, right? It was good to be a pilot in the 70s with like a mustache. He looked good in that outfit.

Speaker 4 A mustache, and people would say, oh, you look like Clint Eastwood or James Coburn, Jimmy C., big hero. Those guys had a good life, but they saw the writing on the wall.
They're like, okay,

Speaker 4 in about 20 years, I or someone like me is going to be making $68,000 a year flying fucking Spirit Airlines with people getting off bitching about, you know, what a terrible experience this was.

Speaker 4 The news anchors, I think, are literally pilots for Pan Am in the 70s.

Speaker 4 They know, and these are smart people and they're really talented. They know their best days from a compensation standpoint are behind them.
They don't, though, Scott.

Speaker 3 I think they do. They do, but they don't like it, I'll tell you that.

Speaker 4 Well, of course, no one likes it. No one ever, it's really interesting.
No one ever, I've never, I've done, I don't know, 1,500 reviews.

Speaker 4 And when I say review, at the end of the year, we give people bonuses, right? Right.

Speaker 4 No one ever says realistically, I've never heard anyone say, you know what, on a risk-adjusted basis, looking at my skills in the marketplace, I'm probably overcompensated.

Speaker 4 And mathematically, 50% of your people are overcompensated and 50% are undercompensated unless you can perfectly figure out what someone's worth is in the marketplace, which no one can.

Speaker 4 No one has ever said, oh, yeah.

Speaker 3 They're always, it's always backward looking.

Speaker 4 Everyone's like, oh, in 2007, I was overcompensated. No, what they think is in 2009, I got ripped off by these suits who aren't paying me as much.
Everyone will anchor off the high point.

Speaker 4 And they think that is the world's natural order, the year I made the most money. And everything else is an anomaly or injustice.
No, you are overpaid.

Speaker 3 Well, there you have it. This is the interesting discussion we should have been having on CNN.
Anyway, thank you, Scott. I was glad to hear your analysis because I I was irritated.

Speaker 3 All right, we got a lot to get to today. Donald Trump, speaking of crazy cable shows, it's like Dancing with the Stars, but freak show,

Speaker 3 has raised eyebrows with some of his cabinet pics. And his best friend, Elon, gets a new role, Doge King, whatever.
Plus, as ex-users flee the platform, Blue Sky is reaping the benefits.

Speaker 3 And so is Threads, by the way. Number one and two on the app list.

Speaker 3 But first, President-elect Donald Trump will reportedly deliver on his campaign promise to stop the TikTok ban, though how he'll do it is unclear. He's just saying it.

Speaker 3 The federal law passed in April by Congress, both houses, says TikTok must be sold by January 19th, the day before the inauguration, or face a ban.

Speaker 3 If TikTok doesn't sell by that deadline, Trump could call on Congress to repeal the law or ask his attorney general for selective enforcement, whoever that is. We'll talk about that in a second.

Speaker 3 And remember, TikTok took the government to the U.S. Court of Appeals back in September to overturn the ban.
Depending on the decision, the case could still go to the Supreme Court.

Speaker 3 There's probably a deal to be had here, right? I mean, I would assume if he goes the non-enforcement route, which by the way, Andrew Jackson did, a whole bunch of presidents have done that.

Speaker 3 It puts Apple and Google in a tricky position because, trusting Trump, they won't be penalized for distributing TikTok in their app stores.

Speaker 3 It's really an interesting, it's actually fascinating because he could

Speaker 3 non-comply, I guess, right? That's correct. With anything the Supreme Court or the Congress has put out.
Any thoughts?

Speaker 4 Well, one of the many things that is disturbing that's being normalized is that the last week has been basically updrafts in the market.

Speaker 4 And for what I'll call a legitimate reason, and that is the market's hit uncertainty. And even if you don't like the outcome, the uncertainty of the presidential election has gone away.

Speaker 4 People now are sort of

Speaker 4 no longer holding their breath, getting on with business, getting on with

Speaker 4 making investments, and the market's gone up. The other component of the market is much more troubling, and that is Tesla's stock is up, whatever, 20, 25% since Trump won or 20%.

Speaker 4 And is it because demand for EVs has gone up? Is it because there's some new innovation? Is it because they've announced, I don't know, a new model? No.

Speaker 4 The reason why Tesla's stock has gone up is because Elon Musk went all in on one candidate, gave him $119 million. And there's a natural assumption that we are now in a kleptocracy.

Speaker 4 And this company will get ridiculous subsidies or be able to control regulation that hurts his competitors. So what used to drive the economy was consumer spending.

Speaker 4 Now what's driving the stock market is the expectation of kleptocracy for people who are on the right side of Trump right now. And that's just not how markets should be run.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 All right. So we're going to get to that in a minute, but so what's going to happen here specifically?

Speaker 4 I now believe that TikTok, I'm going back on a prediction because when the data changes, I change my mind.

Speaker 4 I now doubt it'll be banned because

Speaker 4 it's Occam's razor. The most obvious explanation is the right one here.

Speaker 4 And that is, look, one of his biggest donors is one of the biggest shareholders in TikTok, and he hated TikTok until he liked it. And so

Speaker 4 I think he's now willing. He's now going to not ban it because I think it was this straightforward.
And a lot of people.

Speaker 3 What can he? Like, he can say it, but what can't, these are things he can't do. At some point, he may not have the...
power to do something.

Speaker 4 Well, I don't know the semantics of how enduring Biden's executive order is.

Speaker 3 It's a congressional law. It's not an executive order.

Speaker 3 Remember, it was passed in Congress.

Speaker 4 Oh, it was approved by the Congress.

Speaker 3 Yeah. So now it's in court.
So it's then got to go to the Court of Appeals and Supreme Court. But he doesn't have to enforce it as a law.

Speaker 4 Yeah, but if the new Attorney General, Matt Gates.

Speaker 3 Yeah, we'll get to it. We'll get to it.
Hold it. Hold it.
Hold it.

Speaker 4 New Secretary of Education, Joe Exotic.

Speaker 3 Oh, my God.

Speaker 4 This is fucking dancing with the stars, not a presidential cabinet.

Speaker 3 It is.

Speaker 3 Yes, it is. That's what I said.
I said, or the Star Wars cantina. Some people are using that thing.
We'll get to that in a minute.

Speaker 3 So he could, he, he is going to try to make a deal here with TikTok, I assume. That's what we think, correct?

Speaker 4 It sounds to me like the market, which has been eerily right, is predicting that we are now full kleptocracy and that if a big donor has a big stake in TikTok, the president is going to figure out a way to pay him back.

Speaker 4 And what, to be fair, what a lot of people in the Trump administration or cynical voters will say is, Scott, that's always happened. It's just not happening as elegantly as you would like.

Speaker 4 And let me use an analogy here that I think is apt.

Speaker 4 Becky, Aunt Becky, Lori Laughlin, didn't go to prison for giving USC a half a million dollars to get her daughter in or paying a consultant.

Speaker 4 She went to jail for not giving USC two or three million dollars directly.

Speaker 3 Yeah, to buy a library.

Speaker 4 Yeah. If she had done maybe even a million dollars and gone through the front door of the development department and had the Laughlin School of Creative Arts, her daughter would have got in.

Speaker 4 But because she tried to cheap out and only spent a half a million dollars on a consultant, they basically put her in prison. And that's what's happening.

Speaker 4 You know, that's effectively what's happening here. And that is, or that's what people would say.

Speaker 4 I said, Scott, you're angry because you want them to go through this opaque lobbying infrastructure where a bunch of lobbyists and congresspeople get supported by the National Association of Pharmaceuticals and get their campaigns.

Speaker 4 Instead, people are just going to have cut out the entire infrastructure of the lobbying, you know, K-Street, whatever they call it, and are just going direct to the president.

Speaker 4 And that's what you're, the same thing has happened. These people are just being more transparent and more direct and more efficient about it.

Speaker 3 Yeah, that's what's going on. We think they'll do some deal.

Speaker 3 Interesting, speaking of the market, Disney shares are up 14% at the time of this taping after narrowly beating estimates with the help of its growth in streaming.

Speaker 3 Revenue for the company's entertainment segment increased 14% year over year, fueled by record numbers from Inside Out Too, which was a surprise hit, I think. And Deadpool and Wolverine.

Speaker 3 Disney's sports segment revenue, which is primarily ESPN, was flat, flat, but profits fell 6%. The company says it expects a double digit percentage growth in its entertainment segment in 2025.

Speaker 3 And separately, Spotify's shares are up 17% after the company reported a 12% jump in total. Paid subscribers, you recall a couple last weeks.
Snapchat, Snap did really well.

Speaker 3 The streamer's total revenue was up 19%. It's on track to have its first full year of operating income profitability.
Wow. Wow.
That's amazing to think about.

Speaker 3 The company also seems to be ready to take on YouTube and video podcasting, announcing a new program that will pay creators a cut of subscription earnings and ad revenue for videos.

Speaker 3 I guess it's Akadani-like's second try at the podcast business, which he failed relatively miserably in, except for the Joe Rogan thing. Did well, it might be part of this.

Speaker 3 Will this make any notable dent for YouTube or are they far too far ahead? So talk first about Disney and then Spotify.

Speaker 4 Well, the tale that's wagging the dog in terms of the market's reaction to Disney stock is streaming. People think, okay,

Speaker 4 that's the future. And its streaming business delivered a $321 million in profit, which is about a seven-fold increase in the last quarter.

Speaker 4 So some of the consolidation that's happening in the streaming market and also the pricing power that the market now has, looking at Netflix raising the prices, and also just the unbelievable content of IP.

Speaker 3 Of Disney. Yeah, we always suggested that, that they were one of the ones standing.
Survivors.

Speaker 4 Yeah, they were one of the survivors. And also their positioning is really clean.
Their positioning is family.

Speaker 4 And I just can't imagine any of these things.

Speaker 3 I have to tell you, can I just interject? We use it every single day of the week, card to click. I'm sure.
It's so worth the money. It's so worth the money.

Speaker 3 And not just my older kids use it for the Marvel stuff. And we use it for like Agatha.
And, you know, there's something on it for all of us. And now that they've integrated Hulu, it's really.

Speaker 3 It's a must-have in our house for everybody.

Speaker 4 If you have kids, it's child abuse.

Speaker 4 If you don't, take them and wait in line for three hours to do avatar and spend $900 a night on a shitty hotel room called, you know, the Disney, whatever it is, Princess Hotel.

Speaker 3 Yes, I've been there.

Speaker 4 Kara's been there. But Disney has a really unbelievably strong positioning in the marketplace.
And I remember when I signed up for Disney Plus, and by the way, this signup was a fucking nightmare.

Speaker 4 It was like five or six years ago, maybe eight years ago, because with

Speaker 4 whatever they were, 10 and seven at the time, we had to see the first episode of The Mandalorian.

Speaker 4 Like we were going to spend two, four, eight hours trying to figure figure out how to sign up for Disney Plus to watch The Mandalorian. So they're streaming.
There's consolidation in the market.

Speaker 4 There's weaker players cutting back their spending. For the first time two years in a row, Disney or excuse me, Netflix has not increased its content budget.

Speaker 4 The market is rationalizing consolidation, cost cuts, and Disney is reaping the benefits with great IP, very singular positioning.

Speaker 4 And the market, the market has, I mean, yeah, they want the parks to do well. This is their cash generator.
The movies are important, unpredictable business, though.

Speaker 4 But I think the real white meat, if you will, for the markets is

Speaker 4 what's happening with streaming. And you know what? I really like this because Bob has announced a successor or that they're

Speaker 4 by 2026. It's going to be really nice for Bob to go out again with a medal.

Speaker 4 He's going to return from his second tour of Afghanistan with another medal on his uniform. He's going to leave on a high note here.
So I'm happy for him and the company.

Speaker 3 Yeah. They may go outside.
There's rumblings, and you and I have mentioned some possible candidates, but there are rumblings of outside.

Speaker 3 The guy who's conducting the search is apparently quite serious.

Speaker 4 Oh, they always have to have consider outside candidates if it's a good board.

Speaker 3 Anyway, what about Spotify?

Speaker 4 Well, the interesting thing here is Spotify, Netflix, but five years behind, and that is Spotify lost a ton of money, made huge investments to basically consolidate the music market.

Speaker 4 Netflix controls 7% of all streaming video. I would imagine Spotify has near monopoly power on streaming music.
I mean, I just don't see how you're into music and you don't have Spotify.

Speaker 3 Also. Well, Apple's puts on a pretty good fight, but go ahead.

Speaker 4 I think any 19-year-old claims to be into music has an account on Spotify.

Speaker 3 I got to say, my sons use Apple Music better, and I use Spotify more.

Speaker 4 I think Spotify is incredible. I'm using their AI DJ.
Okay. Oh, my God.
It's so good. I mean, granted, it's just...
It's just B52's REM and Calvin Harris songs.

Speaker 3 I know

Speaker 3 you have a lot, but what about the video going going into video podcasting and stuff like that?

Speaker 4 I always thought, I always thought, quite frankly, that now that the FTC and DOJ, I always thought that TED should buy Spotify.

Speaker 4 I thought if Netflix and Spotify merged and it was the ultimate content streaming subscription program, it'd be just irresistible. It would be.
But Spotify turned profits.

Speaker 4 Their stock is up 2.5x over the year. Revenue growth up 19%.
Paid subscribers grew 12%.

Speaker 4 They have essentially pulled off of Netflix, and that is they have so massively spent on content, consolidated the market.

Speaker 4 Now they have quote-unquote Netflix-like pricing power, and I would argue near monopoly power. People say Amazon Music, Apple Music.
I don't buy it. I think if you're into music, you got to be on.

Speaker 4 I think Spotify is the Netflix of music.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I just don't think they can adjacent. They had a real, didn't have success.
I mean, when like you and I think about stuff, what do we need them precisely for? I guess the audience, right?

Speaker 3 But do we? People find us anyway. I don't know.
I just feel like YouTube is the place that's going to dominate this for.

Speaker 4 Well, you're talking about two. Okay.
So when it comes to podcasts, the new primary means of distribution is not Apple podcasts. It's not Amazon podcasts or Spotify.
It's YouTube.

Speaker 4 And that is, okay, 15 million downloads of the Joe Rogan interview of Trump, 40 million views on YouTube, right?

Speaker 4 So, and the most, quite frankly, the most impressive podcasters, a guy like Stephen Bartlett, Rich Roll, what do they do? They're video-first podcasters.

Speaker 4 Their audio is perfect, but the way they differentiate yourself, Rich Roll demands, and I didn't want to do this, Lex Riemann does the same thing. Rich Roll said to me, I want you on the pod.

Speaker 4 I'm like, I love Rich Roll. I don't know if you watch him, but he's this great, smart, soulful, handsome dude that uses kind of his experience through recovery to talk about life.

Speaker 4 He's really just like, it's a great podcast, anyways. But he's like, do you want to be on? I'm like, yeah, and he's like, well, let me know when you're in L.A.
His studio is in fucking Agora Hills.

Speaker 3 Yeah.

Speaker 4 And Steve Bartlett said.

Speaker 3 Bill Maher has a whole studio system there, too. So does Howie Mandel.
I know it sounds crazy, but go ahead.

Speaker 4 Howie Mandel.

Speaker 4 That's a synapse that hasn't fired in a while.

Speaker 3 I'm just telling you, I was there. It was interesting, but go ahead.

Speaker 4 Howie's in podcasts now? Well, maybe he'll run some space to Chris Wallace.

Speaker 3 Yeah.

Speaker 4 That was good. Even hungover.
By the way, I've switched to tequila.

Speaker 4 I'm now Justin. My good, good friend Justin Thoreau said I should start drinking tequila, so now I'm drinking tequila.

Speaker 3 You should. You're going to look like him if you do.
That seems doubtful, but anyway.

Speaker 4 You know, if that's true, we're going to see tequila sales boom.

Speaker 3 Okay.

Speaker 4 If word got out that I could look like Justin Thoreau by drinking tequila,

Speaker 4 Casa Amigos would be worth more than Tesla tomorrow.

Speaker 3 Everyone you went out with last night is handsomer than you are. I'm sorry.

Speaker 4 How do you know who I went out with last night?

Speaker 3 I don't know why.

Speaker 4 I don't know if I drop names as much as you. I do like to drop names.
How do you know who I went out with last night?

Speaker 3 I just know.

Speaker 3 We can say who it was, but it was all, it was very handsome men. You went out with three handsome men.

Speaker 4 You know, I don't, I just think think it's tacky to brag about.

Speaker 4 I think it's tacky to brag about your friends. I don't.
Have you seen George Hahn or Anderson Cooper recently?

Speaker 3 No, they were out doing tequila shots with you. But here's what, listen, speaking of people we met, you and I met Barry Diller the other night.
We had a nice drink.

Speaker 4 Oh, my God. We are so full name-dropping right now.

Speaker 3 We're so full name-dropping. We're literally like.
No, but this is why something he said was the most interesting, which was there's a different experience with the audio and the video.

Speaker 3 And so there's different businesses in the same, that's why podcasting is so interesting because there's lots of ways to eat the apple, right? That's what's interesting.

Speaker 3 I wouldn't say now it's all video. I think if people go, now it's all video podcasting are wrong.
It's like all of all of the above, as you always say. It's my feeling.

Speaker 4 Let me interpret. First off, Kara is really generous with me.
She wanted to introduce me to Barry, so I went up. Late.
And

Speaker 4 I have traffic. Anyways, whatever.

Speaker 4 Anyways, so I, but those were really loving, supportive messages I got from you. Like, you're standing up someone who is so much more important than you, Scott.
This is pathetic. Anyways, so

Speaker 4 let me summarize.

Speaker 3 The guy said, if he eats your face, I will not stop it.

Speaker 4 Let me summarize my conversation with Barry. I'd say something, you know, my whole like innovation ramp and this rare podcast and going.

Speaker 4 And as delicately and as elegantly as possible, he would basically say to me, but Scott, you're a fucking idiot. And here's what I'm saying.
And this is what really is happening.

Speaker 3 He was right. I kept doing that over and over.

Speaker 4 By the time I walked out of there, my whole worldview was in doubt. I'm like, oh, well, you know why?

Speaker 3 Because he's done this, he's created networks, smart, but he's also done it. He understands and he's curious.
He's one of the most curious. He never is an impressive man.

Speaker 3 He's curious to the new things. That's why I like him.
Anyway, he looks good too.

Speaker 4 I love that. Hanging out at the Carlisle.
I literally felt like Woody Allen and Angie Dickinson were going to walk through the door. That is so old.
I felt so old and so white and so rich.

Speaker 4 I don't like to go above 14th Street.

Speaker 3 The Carlisle.

Speaker 3 Oh, my God. Do you know what I was telling him? That's where when lucky, when I came out, my mother was screaming at me at her.

Speaker 3 She had a penthouse around the corner, and I made her meet me at the Carlisle because she wouldn't scream there.

Speaker 3 And that's what, so when I walked in there, I was like, oh my God, this is where I talked to my mother about being gay for one of the first times. And it has such a memory.

Speaker 3 I was like, I hate this place.

Speaker 3 It was forgotten that that was where it took place.

Speaker 4 No, I can see Barry Diller there, like, like, and tell him worster, like, me and me and Jimmy Garner used to pick up chicks and head to cuba but i got to tell you barry jiller's on top of the fucking he's so smart he's so he's just very smart in no way antiquated we're totally name-dropping and like talking about how awesome we are but i have but more importantly back to me i now have friends i love this all of these people this is the best thing about last night kara okay

Speaker 4 everyone every dude has to find a posse of guys that all came together i'm not exaggerating i had nothing to do last night so I texted Justin. I'm like, what are you doing?

Speaker 4 He's like, I'm on my way to this event for the Hyundai Genesis. And he's like, he's like, it'll be lame, but you want to join me? I'm like, I'm in.
And I'm there 10 minutes later.

Speaker 4 And then we text George Hahn. We're like, what are you doing? He's like, nothing.
Like, come meet us.

Speaker 4 And then I text Anderson. I'm like, we're out drinking.
And he's like, I'm in a car. I'm on my way.

Speaker 4 So many people.

Speaker 4 So many people have fucking nothing to do when you least expect it. And all of us just came together on on like five minutes' notice.
It was very rewarding.

Speaker 4 Anyway, so I have my new drinking friends now. One of them doesn't drink, but that was the best.

Speaker 3 I love that. I think it's important for you to have your man friends.
Anyway, all right, let's get to our first big story.

Speaker 3 Donald Trump is back at the White House this week, meeting with President Joe Biden and promising a smooth transition, unlike what he did, by the way.

Speaker 3 Trump has also been busy with lots of announcements about his cabinet advisors.

Speaker 3 The one that is, they started off normal, Susie Wiles, Marco Rubio, and now we're at the Matt Gates' pick for attorney general and Fox News weekend host, Pete Hegseth, for Secretary of Defense.

Speaker 3 We'll get to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswani's leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or as I'm calling it, the Department of Grotesque Eagle Maniacs or the Department of Grandstanding Edge Lords.

Speaker 3 I don't, this is like gets weirder and fucking weirder.

Speaker 3 Also in the mix, Russia's best friend, Tulsi Gabbard, for Director of National intelligence, and Christy Noam, killer of dogs, for Homeland Security Secretary.

Speaker 3 Chuck Todd posted these confirmation hearings. He may just save cable TV for the short term.
He got sort of dinged for it, but I would have to agree.

Speaker 3 First, before whether they'll make it through, overall thoughts?

Speaker 4 Well, he's made, there's some additional announcements that have come out. He's announced that Sue Sylvester, Jane Lynch's character from Glee, is going to lead the Department of Performing Arts.

Speaker 4 Also, I don't know if you heard the most recent one, Gob Bluth from Arrested Development, Will Arnett's character, is going to be the new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

Speaker 4 And also, Baron Harkonnen from Dune will head spice production on the planet of Arrakis.

Speaker 3 Nice. Nice.

Speaker 4 I now believe

Speaker 4 that the appointment or the floating of the idea of Matt Gaetz for Attorney General, within about an hour, Lisa Murkowski or Senator Murkowski, who I love,

Speaker 4 basically said, this is that Matt Gaetz is an unserious candidate, and I look forward to vetting a serious candidate. I don't, I think this was them saying, you're a loyalist, give him something.

Speaker 4 And what they've done, I think, is run cloud cover for just a shitty pick as opposed to a fucking crazy, stupid pick. And that's what Matt Gates is to be AG.
That just makes no sense.

Speaker 4 And then if you really want to talk about...

Speaker 3 Well, it's been called a loyalty test for Senate Republicans and their newly elected leader, Senator John Thune. They all were pushing for Rick, whatever, the Florida idiot.

Speaker 3 Rick Scott? Rick Scott. He was the one that MAGA was pushing.

Speaker 4 Absolutely. Yeah, I don't think Rick Scott is an idiot.
I don't love his politics, but. Oh, my God.

Speaker 3 He made a mess of the Senate committee he was running. Are you kidding?

Speaker 4 But he's at least competent. He's elected.
I don't know. Look, perfect is not on the menu here.

Speaker 4 I mean, when Senator Rubio looks like a thoughtful pick with gravitas for Secretary of State, everyone's just hoping for someone who has some administrative and some leadership experience.

Speaker 4 But my favorite is that there are not one, but two heads of a committee on efficiency. I mean, that kind of tells you.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I know.

Speaker 4 I know. This makes no fucking sense.

Speaker 3 Are you kidding? It's such a ridiculous. It's like the Grace Commission, right? Do you remember the Grace Commission under Reagan?

Speaker 3 He was going to drain the swamp and he created that commission of leaders to cut everything.

Speaker 4 The private sector survey on cost control to reduce government waste. Clinton had it, launched the National Performance Review.

Speaker 4 W had the president's management agenda. Obama had efficiency reforms.
And Trump created the reform task force to eliminate inefficiencies. He attempted unsuccessfully to shut down 19 agencies.

Speaker 4 And this is a popular political move. Two-thirds of Americans think the federal government is wasteful and bureaucratic.

Speaker 4 But let's just look at some data here. Trump is by no means our most efficient president.

Speaker 4 Federal employment under Trump rose 3.4% during his first term, compared to an increase of 1.3% in Obama's second term.

Speaker 4 It did increase, federal employment did increase by over 6 percent under Biden. Despite all the rhetoric, the U.S.
government spends less as a share of GDP than its peers. U.S.

Speaker 4 government spending is projected to be about 38 percent of GDP. That's less than Japan, which spends 42 percent, U.K.
43 percent, and Germany at 48 percent. The U.S.

Speaker 4 public sector, which they claim is overstaffed.

Speaker 3 Well, they do more for their citizens, but go ahead.

Speaker 4 True. The U.S.

Speaker 4 public sector employs 14 percent of workers, which is more than Germany's 13% and Mexico's 12%, which connotes, based on what you said, is probably inefficient, but less than France's 21%

Speaker 4 and the U.K.'s 23%. Now, let's just specifically go to the pick

Speaker 3 of

Speaker 4 Elon or First Lady Elania to head inefficiency. Let's just talk about efficiency at Tesla.
The automobile industry, revenue per employee is $1.07 million per employee of BMW. GM,

Speaker 4 $1.2, excuse me, $1.02 million per employee. Ford, $980,000 million per employee.
Mercedes-Benz, $950,000. Toyota, $760,000.

Speaker 4 And pulling up the rear as the least efficient of these companies is Tesla clocks or registers revenue of $740,000 per employee. So the least efficient car company revenue per employee is Tesla.

Speaker 4 So anyways, I find the whole thing, it'll be very interesting. They claim they're going to cut this thing by, I don't know, $2 trillion, which means they'd have to like.

Speaker 3 No, but he didn't mention it in the press release. No numbers, like he went on and on on Twitter, but of course, like, that's just nonsense.
It's just nonsense.

Speaker 4 Anyways, I'm finding this thing is so, if you're going to be dumb, don't be dumb, be outrageous. No one's really taking this seriously because it just seems so outrageous.

Speaker 3 No, even congressmen were like, yeah, he can ask. We're not doing it.

Speaker 3 You know, even the Republican ones.

Speaker 3 The Gates nomination is interesting only because

Speaker 3 what's what's interesting about this is, of course, his behavior with young women, women underage. He resigned from Congress,

Speaker 3 alleged whatever, resigned from Congress on Wednesday, days before the House Ethics Committee was set to vote on releasing a highly critical report of their investigation into him.

Speaker 3 Kevin McCarthy said this on the record about his behavior, essentially. And the resignation,

Speaker 3 it ends the investigation, but they can still release it, from what I understand. So I don't see how they get this thing through.
I just don't.

Speaker 3 I mean, it would be ridiculous for this clown to be

Speaker 3 anything.

Speaker 4 What is your take? I agree with you that

Speaker 4 I just think there's a lot of Republican. First off, the thing I don't think the market or people have absorbed is as of today, Donald Trump is a lame dog president.
Yeah, that's what I mean.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 4 he's not going to have nearly the power to intimidate. Republicans.

Speaker 4 And I got to think it's going to be very tempting for Republicans on a pick like this to go, no, this is to basically pull a Murkowski and say, this is not a serious candidate.

Speaker 4 I got to think the Trump administration realized he probably wasn't going to be able to get Gates through, but they did it anyways. What do you think they're trying to do here? What's their end game?

Speaker 3 I don't know because they're frittering away an amazing victory, right?

Speaker 3 You know, it seems like now they're like, now we're like, oh, God, the idiots are back. Like, I don't know.
He has such an opportunity to not fritter away what was a spectacular return to power.

Speaker 3 And now we're talking about Matt Gates and

Speaker 3 jailbait. That's what we're talking about now.
Like, as opposed to like what he could be doing and Elon doing these stupid, you know, he's going to call it the Manhattan Project of our time.

Speaker 3 You know, it's going to blow up in their face. That's why it's the Manhattan Project of their time.
Like it's such a waste of... opportunity here.

Speaker 3 And largely because I think he is of the mind is I'll say something crazy and then I'll say the next thing that's crazy and the next thing that's crazy. But it's, I'm talking about being effective.

Speaker 3 And this is not effective in any way.

Speaker 3 If he really, you know, maybe over to the right, they're like going to be deporting people and hoping that people don't notice that if it's particularly ugly looking.

Speaker 3 And so I honestly, I think there's no planning here. And I think they're just letting people and interestingly,

Speaker 3 you know, I think the Doge thing is just fucking nonsense. It's just ridiculous.
And,

Speaker 3 you know, you can't really, there's not going to be a government department, which is kind of ridiculous. And you need to be creative with Congress's authorization.

Speaker 3 They're not wasting their time on that. And they're going to cut what they want, right?

Speaker 3 So one of the things that's interesting is that he's been down in Mar-a-Lago. And as I said, was an issue.
Everyone's now reporting how irritating he is.

Speaker 3 And NBC News quoted a source saying Elon is behaving as if he's co-president. People are irritated by him, the guests that won't leave.

Speaker 3 I think this is just,

Speaker 3 they're frittering away what was a clear and definitive win. And I'm not sure why they're doing it.
Suicidal nature. I don't know.

Speaker 3 I have no idea.

Speaker 4 I don't know. I do think that the appointment of the Bass Pro Shop swimmer guy as head of U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service makes sense. I know.

Speaker 4 Oh, and Roman Roy will be the new deputy administrator of NASA.

Speaker 3 Yeah.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I just don't. I don't get Hannibal Lecter is the new Secretary of Health and Human Services.
I don't, I don't get it. By the way, I'm so on BuzzFeed right now.

Speaker 3 Christy Noam, what a laughable, ridiculous personality she is. They're all Fox News people.

Speaker 4 You know who I like, though, who's now the new Senate Majority Leader?

Speaker 4 Soon. Soon.
He's very reasonable. I like him.
I think he's reasonable. And I think he pushes back on Trump.
And I think he's very handsome, Kara. Yeah, you like him.

Speaker 3 Did you go out for drinks with him?

Speaker 4 I don't know if he'd be up for impromptu drinks with me and George Hahn. I'll try, but I'm not sure.

Speaker 3 Yeah. All right.

Speaker 3 I'm going to give you a word of the day.

Speaker 3 It's called cacistocracy, government by the least suitable or competent citizens of the states, a state or society governed by the least suitable or competent citizens.

Speaker 3 The modern regime is at once a plutocracy and a cacistocracy. That is the word of the day here at Pivot.

Speaker 4 Okay, no joke. I heard that word an hour ago.
Scott Burns, who's the showrunner and the writer on this.

Speaker 4 this show I'm working on, said, was talking about rebranding the Democratic Party, and someone suggested cacistocracy. And he's like, Are you crazy? No one's gonna, no one can spell that word.

Speaker 4 Anyway, I, no joke, I feel like I should throw salt over my shoulder or whatever it is you do in your

Speaker 4 when you're, I don't know, superstitious. But I heard that word, no joke, 90 minutes ago, cacistocracy.

Speaker 3 It's the word of the day. It's the word of the week.
Well, we'll see what happens. All right, let's go on a quick break.
We come back. We'll talk about Blue Sky's big week.

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Speaker 3 Scott, we're back with our second big story. Ex-competitor Blue Sky has gained over 1.2 million new users in the past week following the election.

Speaker 3 Users has been announcing their exits from X due to Elon's Musk support of Donald Trump, but also a change in terms of service, which we talked about earlier this week, which means you can only sue Elon in this dumbass Texas area.

Speaker 3 One of those users is our friend Don Lemon. Let's listen to his announcement.

Speaker 4 I once believed that it was a place for honest debate and discussion. transparency and free speech, but I now feel it does not serve that purpose.

Speaker 4 In addition, starting this Friday, November 15th, X is implementing new terms of service, which, among other things, states that, quote, all disputes be brought exclusively in the U.S.

Speaker 4 District Court for the Northern District of Texas or state courts located in Tarrant County, Texas, end quote.

Speaker 3 Who is that again? Don LeMond.

Speaker 4 That was D. LeMond.

Speaker 3 Yeah, you didn't invite him last night. He's another handsome man.

Speaker 4 I'm intimidated by Don. Don always bitches at me when he hears about something that's cool and says, you didn't invite me.
And then I invited him. He's like, I'm sorry, I'm busy.

Speaker 3 Oh, now he's going to know.

Speaker 4 Now he's going to know. He wants to be invited, but he doesn't want to say yes.

Speaker 3 Oh, I see. You didn't even try.
You didn't even reach out.

Speaker 4 Dilemmon.

Speaker 3 Anyway, he's talking about what we've talked about last week. This is something.
But what's interesting is the departures. And, you know, despite the huge jumping years, Blue Sky is still,

Speaker 3 I had an account on there and I like it. It's quite good.
I'm still also on Threads, which I also like too. And Threads is really killing it with numbers and they're close to

Speaker 3 275 million. Right now, Blue Sky is 15.2 million users, while Threads has 275 million and X has 600 million.

Speaker 3 I think some

Speaker 3 it's an interesting, I like that there's competition. I don't know what to say.
I like the service. It's quite good.
It's free. It's run by, you know, very calm people, it seems.

Speaker 3 Reporters love Blue Sky. Amanda particularly goes at the Cool Bar and I'm at the Cheesecake Factory over at Threads.
I like Threads.

Speaker 3 As some users leave X, advertising agencies are reportedly expecting some advertisers to return to the platform for political leverage, given Musk's closeness to Trump.

Speaker 3 I think that's not going to last. It's not effective as an advertising platform.

Speaker 3 You know, and that what a way to get ads, like, because people are scared of you.

Speaker 3 And by the way, over at Meta, they plan to introduce ads. You knew this was going to happen early next year.

Speaker 3 So, Scott, if you're in advertising deciding where to spend money as a business versus anything else versus a casocracy,

Speaker 3 which of these platforms do you you spend on? And they don't have advertising on Blue Sky, I believe.

Speaker 4 I think that's correct. So I know nothing about Blue Sky.
I'm not on it. Other than George Hahn, who's really good on social, said you need a presence on Blue Sky.

Speaker 4 And I trust the judgment, but I'm not on. Are you on Blue Sky? Yes, I am.

Speaker 4 Can you describe for the listeners out there what

Speaker 4 is it? Why do you like it? What's different about it?

Speaker 3 Because they have different things. Like it's with threads, you get weird suggestions of who to look at.
It doesn't have, you know, in order of time, you know, it doesn't do that.

Speaker 3 So it's, you, you're always seeing things that are days old. It's, they defocus news and politics, although I get a lot of it.
My, my feet on threads is quite vibrant.

Speaker 3 Amanda looked at mine versus hers, and hers was like a lot of like, you know, come-ons and weird, you know,

Speaker 3 edge, edgelordy kind of stuff. Not edge lordy, more like marketing kind of stuff.

Speaker 3 It's more like Facebook is, I guess, versus the way Twitter used to be. I guess that would be.
And Blue Sky's cool. They're very funny.
I enjoy it very much.

Speaker 3 Although on threads, I really like the foods. There's a lot of food videos and planting plants videos that I like.
It's a little more like Instagram.

Speaker 3 I like them both and I like them differently. It's like liking, like she said, it's like a cool bar in Brooklyn versus a Cheesecake Factory.
And I like a Cheesecake Factory.

Speaker 3 So I don't have a problem with it.

Speaker 3 Some people might.

Speaker 3 So I think they're both really very good platforms. Obviously, Blue Sky is much smaller, but it's cooler.
It's definitely cooler. But it's not snotty either, I would say.
I like it.

Speaker 3 But where would you go if you're an advertiser? You wouldn't go on X. It's literally go over there.
It is a Nazi porn bar. There's so much white supremacy.
It's so nasty.

Speaker 3 Rick Wilson left Twitter. Paul

Speaker 3 Guardian left Twitter. It's just useless as a marketing platform, as an advertising platform, as a place not to feel sick to your stomach about.
humanity, essentially.

Speaker 4 Yeah, there's no doubt about it. But you said this.
So from an advertiser standpoint, you got to bet on meta.

Speaker 4 Meta's, people talk about the algorithms as it relates to the consumer and serving you up content and putting you literally in your own reality.

Speaker 4 And I think Reels has gotten better and better. The gap between TikTok and Reels, I think, is narrowing in terms of Reels.
I can't get over how good Instagram and Reels are right now.

Speaker 4 I think they're doing.

Speaker 4 I think they're doing a great job. I think Threads is fantastic.
The thing that doesn't get enough attention is the ad stack that Facebook has assembled.

Speaker 4 I mean, the things they can do for advertisers and how efficiently they can do it for you. And they basically,

Speaker 4 the biggest brands had the advantage of being able to hire media agencies to plan and allocate their media spend. And this has always been kind of L'Oreal's.

Speaker 4 and Unilever's core competence was always media spend. And that is, it's not that their creative is any better.

Speaker 4 I would argue it wasn't that their products were any better, but they had the smartest people figuring out how to spend their marketing dollars, their 12 or 15% of top line revenue more efficiently, more elegantly, more strategically than any other firm because they had these amazing media planning and buying agencies.

Speaker 4 Now, essentially, what the ad stack at Facebook has been able to do is like, okay, you're a small business doing $10 million a year selling beard oil, Jack Dorsey.

Speaker 4 We can give you kind of the media planning capabilities and targeting of a L'Oreal or a Unilever with our ad stack. And so when they turn that ad stack on

Speaker 4 advertisers who want to now run it across threads and with how robust the information, real-time information and sentiment and activity is going to be, people literally tell you what they're doing on threads.

Speaker 4 I think it's if you're betting on advertising dollars and efficiency and who wins and who gets the most ad dollars per person, I would think threads is immediately going to the first quarter that threads really get serious about monetization, threads will be a bigger business than Twitter or X overnight.

Speaker 4 The thing you pointed out, though, is that quite frankly, that's not Musk's probably primary objective.

Speaker 4 He has bought the ultimate propaganda machine to serve his aims that's not costing him a lot of money because he fired 80% of the people.

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 to use, and you pointed this out to me, to use ad revenue or business fundamentals as the metric for whether this $44 billion acquisition by Musk made any sense, by the way, which was financed, three-quarters of it or two-thirds of it was financed by other people's money or debt from who aren't going to complain yeah who all want to be in the space x ipo or all want to like hang have proximity to elon musk you pointed out that i i've been looking at the wrong metrics oh my god this is a stupid business he's lost so much money no it's increased his sphere of influence and that's worth 10 of his net worth so

Speaker 4 like but in terms of your question around where does an advertiser go an advertiser is going to go where everyone goes reluctantly, and that is to Meta.

Speaker 3 Yep, that's correct. 100%.
Meta is going to benefit from this. And let me just say, Instagram is a very good product.
Threats is a very good product.

Speaker 3 I know people don't have journalists always like belly ache, but for most people, it's actually pretty enjoyable. They never think of it like

Speaker 3 a regular person. It's very enjoyable, and so is Instagram.
And it's well done. I always find something to look at.
I don't feel bad after using it. I don't feel bad.

Speaker 3 It's very, I like, it's like it's replaced, i don't know television to me i guess i watch a lot less television i don't watch very specifically you know streaming and so i i don't journalists get like there's no politics there's no this i'm like shut the up like you're not the user they're looking at right you're not the user they're thinking so they put in a very good effort here um and i see i know exactly what their issues are and i they should have something where the timeline is much more current right it's not but let me just tell you kids all you journalists it's not twitter i'm sorry your Your girlfriend became a junkie.

Speaker 3 I don't know what to tell you. You can't, it's never happening again.
Twitter's gone. And it's, and you need to move on.
You need to move on with your life. And by the way, Blue Sky is lovely.

Speaker 3 I have to say, it's funny.

Speaker 3 There's a little too many lecture people on threads. Like when the comments, all I'm saying is great to have choices.
And I like that there's different businesses and you can have different things.

Speaker 3 I've always thought that the dissipation of social media was a good thing, not a bad thing. And advertisers aren't really going to move back to X.

Speaker 3 They maybe they'll buy $30 just to have their name there. So Linda Yaccarino can swan around New York and pretend she's an actual CEO.
And so, whatever, like, whatever. That's my rant.

Speaker 3 Thank you very much.

Speaker 3 In any case, I think you should go on Blue Sky. I do.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I should start it, but just some numbers. According to a report released by Cantor, a net 26% of marketers, one in four, plan to decrease their spending on X in 2025.

Speaker 4 And then Blue Sky is up now at 15 million.

Speaker 4 Threads is now at 275 million. I mean, it's.

Speaker 3 It's going to catch X in seconds. Yeah.

Speaker 4 Although I will say, Twitter still,

Speaker 4 I haven't been on Twitter in two years. It does still seem to

Speaker 4 inspire a lot of water cooler conversation. I still get...
a ton of text messages with links to an X and an X tweet or whatever it is. And I have to write back.
I'm not on X. I can't see this.

Speaker 4 Can you send me a screenshot?

Speaker 4 it it does hold still a lot of what I'd call because of journalists and and the other thing that's sort of sad about what's happened here and it's happening everywhere is I would argue Twitter I mean Twitter's just gone red pill and I would argue threads is pretty blue pill because if I put out a tweet saying saying an American hero and a picture of Biden it'll get 2,000 likes.

Speaker 4 And if I say, we should have had a competition, not a coronation, my feed is filled with, look, either sign up for your PBS subscription or commit Harry Carey, but you don't understand the assignment.

Speaker 4 I think threads

Speaker 3 are very,

Speaker 4 not an argument discussion. Threads is very left.
The thing I like about threads and the thing I especially love about LinkedIn is the vibe is just less ugly.

Speaker 3 It's less angry.

Speaker 4 I don't know if it's fewer bots or there's fewer trolls, but I don't have some like little dick failed venture capitalist tweeting about me 450 times on threads because I made the, you know, I committed the crime against humanity of saying his shitty portfolio companies were not worth anything.

Speaker 3 How is that Keith, your boy?

Speaker 4 No, it's not Keith. It's someone, it's someone who's

Speaker 4 who's, anyways, it doesn't matter. Now I'm turning into fucking Twitter.
Anyways, but threads is a little more, people push back. I still get all these bots who are out there.

Speaker 3 I don't know if it's a GRU or CCP just trying to start a fight in my in my feed, saying stupid things with a dog picture and 22 followers but there's less of that on thread thread so far twitter always had that by the way twitter always had that for years and years it's just a question of what's an enjoyable user experience and i do think it's just it's dying it's clearly dying and people who i never i keep going just get off of it you'll feel better i i've had i agree there's a lot going on there but i think it's in the specific areas and it's not a pleasant place to be and a lot more people i thought would never come off are off and then once you go off you're like why was i there i can find this information on blue sky.

Speaker 3 I can find it on X. I can find it on blank.

Speaker 4 But you can just real quickly, you can see an environment where he lets Trump fold True Social into Twitter.

Speaker 4 And in exchange, he says all government agencies have to release all data, including information on when you're getting your social security check or everything

Speaker 4 through

Speaker 3 X.

Speaker 4 And so you can see now the full weight.

Speaker 3 Kacistocracy.

Speaker 4 100%.

Speaker 4 100%.

Speaker 4 So, and that's where we are. That the

Speaker 4 I'm being redundant. The market should move based on the consumer economy, not on the expectations of a kleptocrat.

Speaker 3 Right. So

Speaker 3 actually, that would be kleptocracy.

Speaker 3 Anyway, they're all bad words. Anyway, one more quick break.
We'll be back for predictions.

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Speaker 3 Okay, Scott, let's hear predictions, except the fact that you'll probably go in blue sky. What's your prediction?

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 just a couple quick ones.

Speaker 4 I've always been fascinated by the fact that all these local, do you ever watch local news?

Speaker 3 Sometimes. Not really.

Speaker 4 Yeah, if you ever want to throw back, if you want to know what it's like to be 80, just watch local news.

Speaker 3 And I would describe. Hey, Jim, what's up with the weather? That kind of stuff.

Speaker 4 We could have hail the size of golf balls.

Speaker 3 Killer bees. It could happen to you.

Speaker 4 Yeah, it's a mix between an older guy that has a grandfatherly comfort and a hot young woman who is still waiting to be on the Today Show.

Speaker 4 They basically hemorrhage money or make no money for 20 months and they get to underpay their talent because everyone's hoping to get elevated to, you know, Brian Williams old seat at NBC News.

Speaker 4 They don't make any money or they make very little money.

Speaker 4 The talent, and then for four months, every 24 months, they triple or quintuple their ad rates and they just get totally this tsunami of cash from elections.

Speaker 4 Because the general conventional wisdom, which is no longer that wise anymore, is that old people vote.

Speaker 4 And this is the place where you can reach a ton of old people in a local area for either the local congressional race, a ballot initiative.

Speaker 4 So a lot of smart companies, I think including Hearst, went and bought a bunch of local TV news stations and said, this might be a shitty business, but four months every 24 months, it's an unbelievable business.

Speaker 4 What I believe is going to happen is that those good times and that unearned income is about to come to an end. And I think you're going to see a lot of that capital flow to the new arbiter

Speaker 4 who gets elected, and that is podcasts.

Speaker 4 And I know we're talking our own book here, but you're about to see local TV stations start to reflect the economics that foots to the actual value of these companies. And this.

Speaker 3 Are we going to have to read Matt Gates' ads? Not doing it.

Speaker 4 I think political advertising is going to is going to wash over podcasts based on what happened in this election to the same extent it happens when you watch the local news.

Speaker 4 And then my just second real quick prediction is these tariffs are not going to happen at nearly the scale that Trump is threatening because you're going to see, given that Trump is a lame duck president, given that a lot of Republicans do have a business background, and I do think a lot of them understand economics, are going to decide to go out on a limb and say, if you want to increase the price of 88% of the toys under the Christmas tree by 60%, I am not down with that, and I have concerns.

Speaker 3 Republicans, because yes, they all have their line in the sand, don't they? And it's usually a financial one. It's money.
Yeah.

Speaker 3 Do you know what you know what a very prominent Republican told me who's like a fake Trumper, like pretends to like him and hates him behind the scenes?

Speaker 3 I said, I said, Are you going to put up with this craziness? And he goes, We only need him for two more years. Literally, I was like, it was so sinister.
It was so sinister. And I was like, what?

Speaker 3 They're like, we only need him for two more years. I was like, oh, good gods.
Poor Trump in some weird way. I mean, not really.
I don't care.

Speaker 4 But this is how tariffs work. Have you noticed Mexico has already announced reciprocal tariffs if Trump does anything along the lines of what he's threatening?

Speaker 4 They're like, okay, if you want to put Mexico and Canada are now our biggest trading partners. They've now replaced China.
Trade is still a function of proximity.

Speaker 4 Mexico is a fantastic trading partner. And they said, look,

Speaker 4 if you're going to put 20, 40, 60% tariff on our products, guess what, boss? We're going to do the same thing. Our consumers are going to see prices go up.

Speaker 4 Your consumers are going to see prices go up. It's just, when I first moved to New York, I was bored.
And I used to do yoga, which was fine. I did it to...
What?

Speaker 4 There are a few things I'm worse at than yoga, but I like the vibe. It helped with stress.
And there was a lot of hot women. But I also thought, all right, but I need to hit something.

Speaker 4 So I started boxing. And my trainer, who I'm paying, who's like, you should enter this tournament.
You're pretty good at what you do.

Speaker 4 You have good hand speed so I'm 6'2 190 and when you enter a 6'2 190 just fun little boxing tournament at a gym you end up finding fighting a guy who's 5'9

Speaker 4 and literally looks like Mike Tyson and all I remember was I got out there and the next thing I remember literally the next thing I remember is a bright light and it was because I was on my back staring up at bright light.

Speaker 3 I don't even remember. I could beat you off.

Speaker 4 I don't even remember him taking his fist back to throw a punch. And I don't know if for the viewers at home, see how my nose, see how my nose goes to the right?

Speaker 4 That's my souvenir for my one-boxing tournament. My nose goes permanently to the right.

Speaker 3 Oh, I wish, oh, I wish you could go back in time. I would love to see that.

Speaker 4 But this is the fatal flaw in strategy, or when people are trying to determine a strategy, and that is they assume in business that their competitors are a speed bag and don't hit back.

Speaker 4 I'm going to place 60% tariffs on China. Well, guess what? China is not a speed bag.
It will hit you back. And they, too, will go, fuck you, boss.
We're putting 60%

Speaker 4 tariffs on everything that comes into China. And by the way, everyone from Estee Lauder to Northface,

Speaker 4 you're going to take away Chinese consumer revenue from these companies?

Speaker 3 You know, Alibaba, a lot of U.S. products go to China via Alibaba.
Like,

Speaker 3 honestly, we have, there's a lot of businesses businesses here in this country.

Speaker 4 The only place we're selling Buicks is China. I mean, China, China loves American brands.
They love Ralph Lauren.

Speaker 4 They love our beauty products. They love Estee Lauder products.

Speaker 4 Beauty, anyways, Starbucks, Starbucks.

Speaker 3 Can I ask you a separate question, RFK? Like, he's the last crazy on the train, on the on the clown train. You know, I would imagine he gets pushback from the man's groups.
I think seed oils.

Speaker 3 I was like, he's going to get a, Trump's going to get a call from the mayonnaise people and they're going to be like, stand down on him.

Speaker 3 Like, you know, and in that way, you vaguely are like, well, he's right. Mayonnaise is bad for you.

Speaker 4 That's true. He is literally the definition of sweet and savory in the sense that

Speaker 4 occasionally I hear three or five minutes from RFK and I think, this guy is fantastic.

Speaker 4 Let him tell you about the food industrial complex and what this shitty food is doing for our kids. And you're like, you know what? This guy is a leader.

Speaker 4 I think when he talks about the environment, he is really good. Quite frankly, when he talks about Israel, I think he is fantastic.

Speaker 3 It's when... I don't think

Speaker 3 train, but go ahead.

Speaker 4 But then we stop at the vaccine station and he says the best thing you can do for a new mother who has a baby is come up next to her and whisper, don't get her vaccinated.

Speaker 3 And you're like, what?

Speaker 3 Huh? He's so crazy. He brings the whole crazy with him.
He doesn't.

Speaker 3 He brings his whole self to work. And that's the problem.
I mean, I think that it's very good to focus. I'd rather have Michelle Obama do it by let's all eat salads.
But let me just tell you.

Speaker 4 I heard she's not up for anything in the Trump administration.

Speaker 3 Speaking of people punching back, do you think the mayonnaise people aren't going to punch back?

Speaker 3 Do you think the pharmaceutical people, do you think the people that don't own, and Scott, and I call it this, the diabetic industrial complex, isn't going to punch friggin'.

Speaker 3 They're not, they're not speed bags either. And in fact, they are the person who knocked you out, Scott, right? So that's the, that's the problem he's going to have with RFK.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I don't know how much money they gave, but it's interesting. I mean, granted, we're lowering the bar so forward.

Speaker 4 But for example, I really did not want Mitt Romney or W to be president. I really thought these would be bad presidents.
Looking back. Oh, my God.

Speaker 3 They look like.

Speaker 4 I think Senator Romney seems like a wonderful president.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I know.

Speaker 3 Our expectations are so. All right, we have to end soon, but I have one short prediction.
Now, I would dearly love Kamala Harris to run for governor of California for 2026.

Speaker 3 Gavin Newsom gets termed out. She would drive Trump crazy in those last two years because the power of California, I think it's the fourth or fifth biggest economy now.

Speaker 3 Her in charge of California would be spectacular. It would be, because by the way, California is on the return.

Speaker 3 Like, I got to say, San Francisco, you know, I always say this, but all these cities are starting to see openings of stores. You're starting to see restaurants.
San Francisco elected Daniel Lurie as

Speaker 3 mayor.

Speaker 3 Things are turning around, including in New York. By the way, New York is as lively as can be.

Speaker 4 New York didn't need to be turned around.

Speaker 3 I know, but it had its moment that it went through the sad. It went through the sad for a little bit.
It did.

Speaker 3 I'm just saying, her running California, if they start to really address, which they have been, the homeless problems, the fentanyls,

Speaker 3 I think her being governor would be sweet, sweet revenge in a lot of ways, because that's a powerful position in this country, the governor of California.

Speaker 4 I don't know. I'm going to go off from the assignment.
I wonder if her political career is over and she's going to go be the head, the chair of a private equity firm and just make banks.

Speaker 4 I don't think she's, if I'm

Speaker 4 Vice President Harris, why wouldn't she go be like chairman of the Carlisle Group, make a lot of money and just enjoy her life? She wants to do that.

Speaker 3 But it's not for two years. It's not for, she could do that.
She could do both. Because I do think she's got another punch in her.

Speaker 4 Speaking of. But to what end? California is the most ungovernable nation.
It's the fifth largest economy in the world with a lot of special interest groups that make it impossible.

Speaker 3 I like the storyline. You're right.
You're right.

Speaker 4 I just like the storyline. I wouldn't be surprised, Kara, if her

Speaker 4 okay, this is what I think her next stop is. I think under the next Democratic president, she becomes a Supreme Court justice.

Speaker 3 I think that is what her political future is. That could be.
Make some money until then. And then.

Speaker 4 Does she really want to run another campaign? What if she loses?

Speaker 4 If I were her, I wouldn't want to subject myself to that bullshit.

Speaker 3 Maybe so. I don't think she'd lose.
I think people have a lot of affection for her. Anyway, just an interesting little idea to think about.

Speaker 3 That's why I like a, you know why I like us versus cable news. I like us because we consider everything.
We have problems, we discuss them. We have issues, we talk about them.

Speaker 4 Sort of. We're a little bit biased.
We're a little bit biased-ish.

Speaker 3 I know, but we kind of, I think we like each other more recently. I've just have great affection for you recently.
I don't know why.

Speaker 4 Oh, I appreciate that. I need that.
Hold that thought. Well, whatever it is I'm doing, could you please tell me so I could do more of it?

Speaker 3 We had a rough time over the summer, but I feel much better about our relationship. Anyway.

Speaker 4 Well, you came to your senses.

Speaker 3 No, I did not. You did.
You came to your senses. No, it's not true.
You came to to your senses. Anyway, once again, fuck you.

Speaker 4 You stopped abusing whatever meth

Speaker 4 you were doing in the closet, whatever.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 you made my career. I got it.
People come up to me and say, can Scott stop saying that? I said, no, just let him say it because it makes him feel better.

Speaker 4 Oh, yeah. You're turning into Trump.
People say, sir.

Speaker 3 Sir.

Speaker 3 Okay, we got to go.

Speaker 3 We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.
This is gold, by the way.

Speaker 3 Go to nymag.com/slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. And now, listeners, time for this week's threads poll.
We may put it on Blue Sky if Scott goes over there.

Speaker 3 The question this week is: who is the worst pick so far?

Speaker 3 Representative Matt Gates for Attorney General. I can't even say that out loud without laughing.
Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State.

Speaker 3 Fox News host Pete Hegseth, who's such a deuce nozzle for secret. Go watch some of his stupid videos for Secretary of Defense.

Speaker 3 He wears those dumb glasses that like douche nozzle men wear, those weird. Anyway, and Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswani for government efficiency.
Find us on threads at Pivot Podcast Official to vote.

Speaker 3 And we'll be doing another call-in show soon. We love those.
Submit your voicemails with questions you'd like to ask us live on air and let us know where to reach you.

Speaker 3 Okay, Scott, elsewhere in the Kara and Scott multiverse this week on this week's Prof G Markets, Scott, you and Ed spoke with Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Rit Holtz Wealth Management, about the accuracy of the prediction market.

Speaker 3 Super impressive, yeah.

Speaker 3 Bitcoin hitting an all-time high and advice to people who are concerned about a second Trump term. Let's listen really briefly.

Speaker 6 Spend the next four years, put your head down, make fucking money, focus on how you can improve your own life, and the pendulum will swing back.

Speaker 6 And if you're horrified by some of the things like the overturning of Roe v. Wade or the way we're going to see very cruel deportations

Speaker 6 of

Speaker 6 immigrants, like if you're horrified by those things, and rightly you should be, the wealthier you are, the more opportunity you will have to do something about it.

Speaker 6 Screaming on Twitter, crying into a TikTok, all that does is make the people on the other side

Speaker 6 feel even more emboldened. My advice is arm yourself with money.
It is the only way to make change.

Speaker 6 You don't have to like that what I'm saying is true. You just have to accept it because everyone else has.

Speaker 3 Wow, is he a brother from another mother? Jesus, that's Scott Galloway with the ass. He and I are the, yeah, we're of like minds.

Speaker 4 Wow. Yeah, we're of like minds.
That's amazing. He and his partner, Barry Ritholt, both listened to our show.
And by the way,

Speaker 4 they're such Long Island men. They are.
They're like the best of Long Island.

Speaker 4 They're the guys that like.

Speaker 4 have a trans am in their front parking lot and throw it throw a beer at you when you're on your way to high school and then on your way back they invite you in for your first bong load they're like such

Speaker 4 good guys they're such long island men

Speaker 4 and they're super smart. By the way, they have $5 billion under management in their business.

Speaker 3 There is, buddy.

Speaker 3 I love that. That's really good.
Anyway, go listen to it. Before we go, happy birthday to our best friend, George Hahn, who Scott went out with last year.

Speaker 3 He is 60 years old today. I don't know how old he is, but he looks fantastic.
Happy birthday, George. Happy birthday.
And by the way, I'm going to put out a happy birthday.

Speaker 3 My son, Saul, turns three on the day this publishes. Saul, let me just tell you.

Speaker 4 That's been three years. Let me see.
You had him. You had him when you were 73.
That makes you wait for me.

Speaker 3 Okay, good.

Speaker 3 Anyway, happy birthday. So speaking of balls out kids, he is one of them.
I'll tell you, he's like,

Speaker 3 let's go. And we're going to have an exciting birthday party for you this weekend.
And I love you. Okay, we'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot.
Read us out, Scott.

Speaker 4 Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Andretat engineered this episode.
Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Mia Severio, and Dan Shulan.

Speaker 4 Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts.

Speaker 4 Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/slash pod.

Speaker 4 We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business breaking new Secretary of the Interior, David Hasselhoff.

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Speaker 2 We all have moments where we could have done better, like cutting your own hair,

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Speaker 5 Could have done better.

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