How Trump Will Impact the Economy, Big Tech, and Social Media

Transcript

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Speaker 21 Together forever and ever to be.

Speaker 20 Together forever will be.

Speaker 21 Which one do you think is going to die first?

Speaker 20 Um, I'm banking on me.

Speaker 21 Yeah, I'm too.

Speaker 20 hi everyone this is pivot from New York magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network I'm Kara Swisher and I have my annual cold where I sound like Brenda Vicaro good to see you Scott it's good to see you I just want to kick off the pod today with one question one one query one inquiry Kara yeah what's your inquiry what the actual fuck fuck

Speaker 20 we are we were so wrong the actual actual fuck Scott how wrong were we let's discuss.

Speaker 23 Oh, you know what?

Speaker 20 As someone who's wrong a lot, this was especially wrong. This was spectacularly wrong.
Yeah.

Speaker 20 Yeah. No, I got it.

Speaker 20 I'm not sure. I could have been more wrong, Kiera.

Speaker 21 Yeah, I know. I know.
I got to say, though, on the morning after we taped, the morning of the election, I don't started to get a bad feeling. I don't know why.

Speaker 21 And maybe it was just the yips from the Hillary Clinton thing.

Speaker 21 But I was like, oh, no, no, no, no, no. Something like that.
And it was was weird. Um, but I never said it, but we were wrong.

Speaker 20 Describe your day, and then, which is my way of saying I want to describe mine, but I'll let you go first. By the way, where are you? You look very nice, and it's a very nice hotel room.

Speaker 21 I'm in Vegas, baby. I'm going to drink myself to death here, like a la Nicolas Cage.

Speaker 20 You're in Vegas.

Speaker 21 I'm in Vegas. I'm giving a speech so I can make money because I'm going to make more money under the Trump administration, while others who voted for him will not.

Speaker 21 In any case,

Speaker 21 I am here for a speech.

Speaker 20 What hotel are you at?

Speaker 21 I love Vegas. MGM Grant.

Speaker 21 Everything is green.

Speaker 20 All the lights are green. Yeah, you kind of missed it on that one.

Speaker 21 You kind of missed it. I know, I know, I know.

Speaker 21 Which one do you like?

Speaker 20 Which hotel do you like? Well, I'm getting old, so I like to stay at the WIM, specifically the Encore. But I was younger, I used to stay at the ARIA.
Also, the Cosmo is kind of cool.

Speaker 20 Yeah. Yeah, I've stayed at all those places.
I'm going for F1 next weekend, and I got a speech there next Wednesday.

Speaker 21 Yeah, there's a lot of F1 stuff in the, in the, all the, you know, the shoppies and stuff like that, a ton of F1 stuff.

Speaker 21 You like that. I haven't been to that.
Do you actually watch the race?

Speaker 20 No, I go to hang out with hot people and basically party. I mean, I'll go to the race one night, but I've been to F1 in several cities, and the city really does come alive.

Speaker 20 I mean, F1, Miami, Montreal, which in my mind is the best.

Speaker 20 I've been to, where else is that?

Speaker 21 We're trying to talk about anything else but the election.

Speaker 21 Okay, this is my day very quickly. I got it.

Speaker 20 How did it play out for Kara Swisher?

Speaker 21 Okay, took the kids to vote. We went to our area of voting.

Speaker 20 We voted.

Speaker 20 So

Speaker 20 election fraud. Is that what you're saying? Your kids voted?

Speaker 21 Yes, yes, exactly. They did several times.

Speaker 21 And we showed them the whole thing. I've done that.
You've done that with your kids.

Speaker 20 Who did your grandparents vote for?

Speaker 20 Yeah, right.

Speaker 21 And so then I went, Claire and I hung around for a little while. And then

Speaker 21 she got the day off from school because she's in public school

Speaker 21 to vote, obviously.

Speaker 21 The five-year-old voted.

Speaker 21 And then

Speaker 21 I did some work. I did a bunch of work.
And then I just hung out. I worked out.
I was trying to feel better. And then I kept getting the yips.
I really did.

Speaker 20 Was there a moment during the night where you're like, oh, no.

Speaker 21 No, when she gave her speech, even though it looked beautiful, her last speech in Philadelphia, I thought, oh, no, no, no, no, no. She's not going to connect.
This is not.

Speaker 21 going to connect with people.

Speaker 21 I don't know why. I just did, I felt like, oh, this is.

Speaker 20 And you don't, see, I felt that way about Kamala's speeches every time she opened her mouth. But you felt it was especially non-resonant?

Speaker 21 I don't know why. I thought it was really beautiful visually, and I was worried about the message.
I was like, huh. And there wasn't enough time.
I also didn't think there was enough time.

Speaker 20 But at what point during the evening did you go, uh-oh, where there's trouble in Mudville?

Speaker 21 Right away. Right away.

Speaker 21 I was watching, and I'm like, no, this is.

Speaker 21 This is something's happening here. I don't know what it was.

Speaker 21 And it was just, and Chris Wallace actually said there was something that when the independence came back in his favor in one of the states, and it was where they might have gone to her,

Speaker 21 even it was a state he won. I can't remember what it was.
There was something like that.

Speaker 21 And when they were talking about economy so much, Chris Wallace said she needs a miracle very early in the night. And I think Chris is very an astute watcher of these things, having done so many.

Speaker 21 But then I started to feel really sick because I got this cold and I was feeling Clara and Saul had had this same thing. It's like a 24-hour like nausea thing.

Speaker 21 And I went to sleep and I woke up the Nick at 5.30 the next morning and I was and then I knew. So what did you do?

Speaker 20 So

Speaker 20 I knew I had sort of this deja vu of 2016.

Speaker 20 I remember when they were showing the map of Florida county by county because that back then Florida was considered potentially a swing vote or a swing state. And it was just so obvious.

Speaker 20 I like math and I'm fairly good at it. And right away I thought she's not only going to to,

Speaker 20 Secretary Clinton's not only going to lose Florida, she's going to lose it by a lot, which means she's done. And for me, this was when, and it happened fairly early, happened at 1 a.m.

Speaker 20 my time, or I think about 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time,

Speaker 20 is when they announced the results of Georgia because he came in 2.2 points ahead of her. And I thought that's kind of not a blowout, but that's pretty significant for a state that

Speaker 20 there were some hopes she might be competitive in and that Biden won. And I thought, that's it.
She's done.

Speaker 20 And

Speaker 20 then

Speaker 20 the next day,

Speaker 20 so I was very stressed out about it. I was more stressed than I thought I was going to be or more upset than I initially thought I was going to be.
And

Speaker 20 I'm a huge fan of Dan Harris. And I thought he had that method, that straw breathing method to relax where

Speaker 20 you go in for two seconds through your nose and then

Speaker 20 like you're blowing out a straw for twice as long. So I did that.
And just to be clear, that shit does not work for me, Kiera. It did not work.

Speaker 20 So I went to my method of relaxation and I waited until noon. I had a Pironi, then a Xanax, and then another Pironi, or as I like to call it, Panix, the Panix method.

Speaker 20 And I find, I find it not only relaxes me, but a little insight about the dog. I become an outstanding dancer on prescription-grade pharmaceuticals.
Wow.

Speaker 20 And I listened to 80s music and I danced around. The dogs are very upset.
The dogs do not like me dancing. They totally freak out.
It's something.

Speaker 21 You turned off the TV. You turned off the TV.

Speaker 20 Oh,

Speaker 20 I went on, actually, I went on Amazon's live election coverage, which I really, I really love, by the way.

Speaker 20 Ryan Williams, who's the right host, he's a mix of really credible, but really comfortable at the same time. And you know who I saw? Was our good friend Jessica Yellen, who did a great job.

Speaker 20 Anyways, but the next day, I'm like, I don't want to hear the analysis.

Speaker 20 I don't want to hear anything. I don't want to hear everyone contradicting each other as to what went wrong or what went

Speaker 20 right. But it was,

Speaker 20 I, I haven't, I just literally 10 minutes ago upgraded from pajamas to athleisure. So I'm in, I've been in pajamas.
I've been drinking a lot. I've been watching Netflix and my stocks are up.

Speaker 20 It's COVID again. It's literally, I'm in COVID again.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 Yeah. So I'm not going to ask you who I think, but what do you,

Speaker 21 how do you, how do you think of the reaction? And

Speaker 21 how do you think our audience should process this?

Speaker 20 Well, look,

Speaker 20 what Dan also said, my new Yoda around anxiety, action absorbs anxiety. And I think one of the keys to success is the ability to mourn and move on.
So I've given myself 24 hours to mourn.

Speaker 20 And then the next day I thought, okay, should I be giving money to Planned Parenthood? Should I be getting more involved in Wes Moore's campaigner?

Speaker 20 I did a call with a guy named Seth Moulton, a Democratic Congressperson who I'm really impressed with. Should I be giving money to

Speaker 20 Amy Klobuchar? Is there, or I imagine already there's a 2026 candidates.

Speaker 20 I'm like, okay, that's it. Let's get on it.
Because the ray of sunshine here, if there is one, is that traditionally a midterm is a huge opportunity for the non-incumbent party.

Speaker 20 And so

Speaker 20 I'm spending time with my boys. I'm doing things I enjoy.
And I'm going to say, okay, I didn't like the way this turned out. What can I do to make sure it turns out differently in 24 months?

Speaker 20 So I'm already sort of trying to take action.

Speaker 20 What do you do, Kara?

Speaker 21 I wrote a really long thing at 5.30 in the morning talking about a lot of things. Like, I'm like, we don't have to go, you know, everyone's like, oh, the American people have spoken.

Speaker 21 I'm like, ah, 50%. I was looking at all the things and I get it.
He won in all the right places. Like, winning is winning, right? But that's different from everyone, right? It's really the

Speaker 21 polarization is absolutely even, Stephen, very close, right? If you look at various things.

Speaker 21 What I really want to understand is what was the messaging that didn't work, right? What was the message or that didn't get through? What was the calculation in their head?

Speaker 21 How did they vote for someone found liable for sexual assault?

Speaker 21 And

Speaker 21 what was the calculation and why did that message not resonate? And why was it okay

Speaker 21 given all the evidence that he's crazy, he's deranged, he's obviously addled?

Speaker 21 Why did none of those things matter to people? And again, the two choices are they don't believe them. They don't believe all those cabinet members.
They don't believe all these things

Speaker 21 about him and his history. Or they are fine with it if they can get lower grocery prices or they felt better than they did before.
You know, do you feel better today than four years ago?

Speaker 21 And I think that trumped it. And I just couldn't.

Speaker 21 I can't get past those things, but a lot of people can't. And maybe that's why we got it so wrong.
You can't believe that they could say okay to that,

Speaker 21 especially women, which who voted, a lot of white women voted for Trump again.

Speaker 20 Well, just I'm not talking about the way the world should be or our version of it, what it should be, but the way the world is.

Speaker 20 And that is, and I put out a thread on this, and immediately I'm going on

Speaker 20 CNN, MSNBC, and Smirconish in the next 72 hours to talk about what I bottom line is. I think the Manosphere won here.
I think this was the bro vote that

Speaker 20 won the election.

Speaker 20 And if you look at the age group that had the biggest swing from from 2020 in terms of who they voted for, hands down, there was an 11-point swing towards Trump among 18 to 29-year-olds.

Speaker 20 And

Speaker 20 if you're a self-appointed social justice warrior or you're making judgments on someone's character or you may not think they equit themselves well personally or professionally, but you can't afford a home.

Speaker 20 The government or the left is lecturing at you about bailing out people who went to college where you have absolutely no prospect of going to college, either because of inability to get in or inability to afford it.

Speaker 20 If you can't see a way to having anything resembling the life your parents had,

Speaker 20 you're not interested in being lectured about who's a better person. You not only want change, you want disruption.
You don't even want conventional Republicans. You certainly don't want Democrats.

Speaker 20 And the other age segment that swung the furthest was, in my view, their parents, 45 to 64-year-olds, because if you're a single mother yeah and and you're everybody this is what did not show up everybody vastly overestimated the role that bodily autonomy would play in this race you're right

Speaker 20 because

Speaker 20 Trump was able to distance himself by convincing people I'm actually not as crazy as some of the people here.

Speaker 20 And so people had some comfort that even if they voted for Trump, it wasn't necessarily a vote against bodily autonomy.

Speaker 20 But what they do see is if you're a mother or you're a parent and your kids, specifically your sons, are doing terribly,

Speaker 20 you just want change. You want to burn the whole place down.

Speaker 20 So if you look in my view, if you look at what really drove this election, it was one, bodily autonomy was not the referendum, the motivator that people thought.

Speaker 20 And it's not only young people that are struggling, 24% less wealthy than they were 40 years ago, where seniors are 72% wealthier. If pop-up banana complain, it's bad.

Speaker 20 But if your son or your daughter are doing really poorly and can't afford their rent and have see their lifestyle going down and are more depressed and more anxious, you want to burn the whole fucking thing down.

Speaker 20 And so you do. You do.

Speaker 21 I think if you don't have the luxury of caring, I think in a lot of ways, you know, I think what you're saying is you don't have a luxury of the social issues become a luxury.

Speaker 21 Yeah, that's what I mean. Yeah.
Yeah. You don't have that.
You don't have that. And so I get that.
I utter, I completely get that. What I don't get is the raising of darkness that he has.

Speaker 21 I guess they just don't believe that he really is like that, right? I think that's what it is. Although, you know, then you get all his crazy followers who are like Nick Cuentes today

Speaker 21 on Twitter and someone that sent it to me

Speaker 21 tweeted, your body, my choice forever. Like that kind of stuff is terrifying to lots of people.
And so I think the emboldenment of this is

Speaker 21 maybe they're overstating overstating it. Maybe, I don't know.

Speaker 21 I find them terrifying, these people. I do.
And I do have the luxury of finding them terrifying. And I think that's why, especially to my kids, to my marriage, everything else, and other people don't.

Speaker 21 I guess I'm not angry at them for that, but there is going to be a real split in people who. who can be

Speaker 21 scared of it,

Speaker 21 who can live with fear in that fear. And of course, that is a motivator too, because fear does motivate everybody rather than just joy.

Speaker 21 She was trying with joy. She was trying with forward.
I think, let me just say, I know everyone's piling on the Democrats. I thought she in the short,

Speaker 21 the error they probably made was not to have a primary, right?

Speaker 20 100%.

Speaker 21 A short primary so that we could pick if she had even been picked. I thought she did do a really nice campaign, the best that she could, but she was dragging Biden behind her the whole time.

Speaker 21 And she was was part of that administration.

Speaker 21 And I think that's what people were reacting against: the Biden administration and how they felt, even if lots of stuff was up and to the right for a lot of people.

Speaker 21 I think she couldn't shake him unless she shook him. And so another candidate that wasn't a Biden person might have been more appealing, but I'm not so sure.

Speaker 21 I'm not so sure that would have worked either.

Speaker 20 I think you're zeroing in on the fatal flaw here, and that is it was very difficult.

Speaker 20 So, first off, Vice President Harris should hold her head high given

Speaker 20 the hand she was dealt, given how much pressure was on her, given how outstanding she was in that debate. I think she can feel really good about herself.

Speaker 20 And we should feel good about her.

Speaker 20 President Biden should be buried in a crypt along with Senator Feinstein and Ruth Bader Ginsburg that says fucking narcissists that ruin their legacy.

Speaker 20 If we had had a competition, The primaries are outstanding at producing battle-tested candidates that people get comfortable with and who are really good on their feet.

Speaker 20 And she might have been that person, but if she'd been that person, she would have been better prepared.

Speaker 20 Or the nation might have said, well, who wins in a primary is who foots and rises to the moment. And voters get to decide in this moment, maybe we don't want, fairly or unfairly, the incumbents.

Speaker 20 Maybe we've just decided two-thirds of people think America is going in the wrong direction. So we want someone a little bit outside of the party who has a D, but says this is not working.

Speaker 20 Yeah, like Jared Collis.

Speaker 21 Colorado did amazingly well, like across the

Speaker 20 Democrats. Or someone we haven't heard of.
Someone could have risen up and been there at the right moment in the right time.

Speaker 20 This is absolutely, in my view, on Biden and the people around him in the Democratic establishment, including many of our friends who are emailing me saying,

Speaker 20 you're hurting by not supporting Biden. He's going to be our nominee.
It was

Speaker 20 insane that he didn't live up to his promise in 2020 that he was going to be a transition candidate. If there's any blame here, it's quote unquote the establishment and on President Biden himself.

Speaker 20 She did her level best. They also vastly overestated the role bodily autonomy would play in the election.
It just, do you realize more women or fewer women voted for Harris and voted for Biden?

Speaker 21 It's not quite the number because all the California votes aren't in yet. And her votes will rise with California.
But yes, I know she didn't, he didn't get that many more votes.

Speaker 21 I mean, a very, I don't even think, I think it's pretty even Steven with him. He just got the votes he got.
He kept his votes.

Speaker 21 And he increased in certain places among everybody, except for a small group. What was it? I don't know.
What I was looking at was Colorado, where Democrats did astonishingly well.

Speaker 21 So what Paulus is peddling over there is working, like economy. Let's stop fighting over ideology.

Speaker 20 We're not self-appointed social justice cops.

Speaker 20 Strong economy. Let's be reasonable with strong economy.
But actually, he did better across every group in every region, except for black women who are 6% of the population.

Speaker 20 Any other demographic group, any other region. He won every swing state.
I mean,

Speaker 20 if you look at this, really is, and I don't think this is a good thing. You had the New Deal Democrats in the 30s who had a mandate and a pretty serious sweep.

Speaker 20 This wasn't a landslide, but it was a distinct, decisive win. You had the Republicans in the 80s.
I do think that

Speaker 20 this does signal a shift in policy around immigration, around foreign policy, around trade. I mean, there's just no getting around it.
This is America saying

Speaker 20 we want to go in a different direction. I do think this was a pretty big

Speaker 20 statement from the American people.

Speaker 21 Although,

Speaker 21 let me just say, people are like, oh, it's a huge landslide.

Speaker 21 You know what a landslide is? Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, 61% of the votes. FDR, 60%.

Speaker 21 Richard Nixon, 60%.

Speaker 21 Orange G. Harding, 60%.
Reagan, 58%. Herbert Hoover, 58%.

Speaker 21 Roosevelt, 57%. Eisenhower, 57%.

Speaker 21 T. Roosevelt, 56, 55.
This was not that. It was just not.
It just wasn't that. It wasn't a landslide.

Speaker 21 It's not even in the top 10. But that means half the country is dissatisfied.
So it's who do you want to, who do you want to bring over? And how do you bring them over

Speaker 21 to the other side? How do you make them feel like they're like every, although we may just be polarized, right? It may just be that

Speaker 20 way again. Back and forth.
Or not. Right.

Speaker 21 It'll never be 60.

Speaker 20 The three issues,

Speaker 20 the three issues that showed up or that were the most important were inflation,

Speaker 20 immigration. And the issue that I think was the biggest issue where the Democratic establishment made a huge error here around some of the the things we were talking about was incumbency.

Speaker 20 And that is, if you look at every Democratic nation across the globe, from India to Japan, they've gotten slapped hard. The incumbents have been getting kicked out.

Speaker 20 And to think that we were going to buck that trend in a nation where two-thirds of people saying we're headed down the wrong track was just incredibly naive. And then the big shocker for both,

Speaker 20 I'll speak for you, for you and me,

Speaker 20 I was convinced bodily autonomy was going to play a bigger role than it did. Me too.

Speaker 21 There were some interesting videos of people saying, oh, Trump is for abortion rights.

Speaker 21 Let me say the last thing, and then we'll have to move on and talk about some of the real impacts.

Speaker 21 I think there was an enormous amount of propaganda in this push by Elon and others that really worked, like worked in a way that they often do. So many exit interviews were so incorrect.
It was crazy.

Speaker 21 Like they were just doing just interviews. And I have to say, the interviewers were just saying, what do you think of this? They weren't like guiding them in any way.

Speaker 21 And there was this one woman where she's like, yeah, Trump isn't going to do this. He's for he's for abortion.
And there was tons and tons of

Speaker 21 just misinformation all over the place. And I think the role of it's like propaganda where people had different facts going in was really quite extensive, I think.

Speaker 21 I had a lot of people telling me things. I was like, no, that's actually not true.
That's actually not true.

Speaker 21 You know, and I think that it was sort of pervasive, the misinformation and the constant, the constant constant lying about things.

Speaker 21 And I think what she spent a lot of time doing was whack-a-mole. And that's a bad position to be in.
To be right and to tell people they're wrong is a bad thing because they don't want to hear that.

Speaker 21 So I think there's 10, 20 years ago, we're going to study the propaganda, uses propaganda by foreign and domestic.

Speaker 21 And it's going to be something else, including Russia and others. But that's something we're not, that's been building for a very long time.

Speaker 20 But just outside of the big three we mentioned, mentioned, right, immigration, inflation, incumbency was quote unquote democracy, constitutional democracy was a big issue for people.

Speaker 20 But what was so strange about that is that Republicans were more worried about it than Democrats. And I go to, quite frankly, misinformation.
Let me get this.

Speaker 20 You're worried, you genuinely believe that

Speaker 20 there's a conspiracy across

Speaker 20 our electoral officials and that the election was stolen. That's where your misinformation really came in.

Speaker 20 Republicans were more worried about constitutional democracy than Democrats who had seen their representatives cowering in fear because a guy still hasn't conceded the election.

Speaker 20 This is just, there's no getting around it.

Speaker 20 People are now getting two-thirds of their information from platforms that have a vested economic interest in spreading misinformation because it's just more novel

Speaker 20 and it's more interesting. There's going to be so many forensics, but I think where the Republicans tactically

Speaker 20 did really well was, I think, Trump's embrace of the manosphere.

Speaker 20 He went on the top five or six kind of manosphere podcasts and basically said, if you're a young person or a young man or someone who sees how a young man in your life is struggling, I got your back.

Speaker 20 And I think people are really turned off what they view as self-appointed social justice police on the left.

Speaker 20 And there's just just a,

Speaker 20 there's such an enormous shift taking place demographically. One of my role models, Peter Jarker, used to say demographics are destiny.
It's no longer true.

Speaker 20 If you look at the border states, Latinos and border states actually swung very much towards Trump.

Speaker 20 A lot of immigrants are like, I came here legally. I'm not down with what's going on here.
Or they don't have the same empathy for other immigrants.

Speaker 21 Let me read something. There was someone who was doing some research around Filipinos and other immigrants in Hawaii that are Republicans.

Speaker 21 The sources of information are nothing like we've ever heard of. Yes, there is still the staple of Fox News and NewsVacks.
There's also a lot of reading of Epoch Times, One America News, and Rumble.

Speaker 21 But I had a deep conversation with a native Hawaiian, let's call her Lily, who regards Trump as a demigod. She showed me on her phone the stuff she reads and listens to every day.

Speaker 21 I have never heard of them before, and we listen to them together. The conspiracy theories in these sites are wild to say the least, but she is convinced they are true.

Speaker 21 This is this, that it's really, it does work, these things of where people are getting their information. So that'll be, I think, the information environment.

Speaker 21 And now I understand why Elon bought Twitter. That's my feeling.

Speaker 20 You had a really interesting, you popped up in my

Speaker 20 feed, something you said on CNN about your thesis around

Speaker 20 True Social

Speaker 20 in Twitter. I thought that was really interesting.

Speaker 21 Someone very big wrote me that who was right before about him. And they think they're going to merge

Speaker 21 True Social with Twitter and then take it public.

Speaker 20 Well, it's already public. You're saying it'd be a reverse merger.
You have a public vehicle with True Social. Yep.
Yep.

Speaker 20 That would be a massive dilution for Twitter shareholders who would basically be getting 3 million revenue and have to give up a third or half the company.

Speaker 20 But it would be a way, to your point, of funneling billions of dollars from Muslims

Speaker 20 to Donald Trump legally, as far as I can tell.

Speaker 21 Yeah, yeah. Anyway, it was interesting when someone brought that up to me.
All right, well, let's get to everything now. And by the way, again, we're sorry we we were wrong, audience.

Speaker 21 I don't know what to say. I think we live in a different place and have different values and

Speaker 21 different things that are important to us.

Speaker 21 Anyway, let's move on.

Speaker 21 There's a lot to get to today. We're going to dig what the victory means for tech and business.
We're going to look forward, including the impact on the economy, big tech regulation, and social media.

Speaker 21 Let's start with the market. Stocks soared on Wednesday following the news of Trump's victory.
The Dow had its biggest single-day gain in two years on Wednesday, up 3.5%.

Speaker 21 The S ⁇ P was up 2.5% and the NASDAQ 3%.

Speaker 21 Trump media shares spiked to around $44 a share, though not quite as high as predicted.

Speaker 21 You predicted if Trump won, you thought $80.

Speaker 21 Tesla went up nearly 15%, making Elon Musk richer than ever. NVIDIA and Goldman Sachs hit all-time highs.

Speaker 21 The net worth of billionaires, led by Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, who we'll talk about shortly, surged by over $63. billion.

Speaker 21 Other winners, private prison company, Geo Group, and Core Civic, rose 42%,

Speaker 21 which is depressing, and 27%, respectively, likely anticipating detainments tied to Trump's immigration policies. Talk a little bit, Scott, about the stock reaction.

Speaker 20 So to be fair, the market's actually bifurcated here, and that is the stock market likes it because stocks are basically the present value of growth opportunity and

Speaker 20 what the earnings or projected earnings are of a company.

Speaker 20 And there's a belief that They call it growth, but basically what they're anticipating is an extension or even additional tax cuts on corporations, which will increase their earnings and increase their stock price.

Speaker 20 So the markets love it. But the first person I heard from who said it's over, the first person to call it, and he was right, was

Speaker 20 a friend of mine named Justin, who's the chief investment officer for Millennium, which manages $70 or $80 billion. He was the co-head of Goldman Sachs, this fixed income department.

Speaker 20 This guy has a very big brain. And I said, how do you know? And I said, I immediately went to, because of Georgia.
I'm like, what are you, you're watching the map?

Speaker 20 And he said, no, the credit markets, the tenure is spiking, and the markets understand that Trump, whose policies will be much more inflationary, is about to win.

Speaker 20 And I thought that was really fascinating because if you look at the credit markets, they believe that Trump's policies will be inflationary, and the tenure is actually spiked in terms of the yield.

Speaker 20 So companies are, the equity markets like it because they think earnings are going to go up because of a lower tax burden on them.

Speaker 20 But the credit markets right now don't love it because they think his policies are going to be inflationary.

Speaker 20 But the SP had its best day in nearly two years.

Speaker 20 I mean, the markets, the equity markets like this, and again, I hate these signals because they're false flags because the vast majority of equity, of stock market equity in this country, is held by a small number of people.

Speaker 20 So basically what the market was telling us is that one, his policies are likely going to be inflationary. And two, the rich and corporations are going to do really well.
Yep.

Speaker 21 Yep. That sounds about right.
The price of Bitcoin also rocketed to an all-time high of $75,000 on election night, crypto-related stocks.

Speaker 21 Also, ticking upwards, Trump has previously voted the idea of government-owned Bitcoin Reserve and pledged to fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who's considered an enemy by the crypto industry.

Speaker 21 They spent a lot of money trying to get rid of Sherrod Brown and others who are opposed to their sort of wild lifestyles, essentially. What do you think will happen if he strips back any regulation?

Speaker 21 There's hardly any, but any regulation.

Speaker 20 Well, the bull case is that they have have been somewhat remiss to embrace innovation in trying to protect the dollar, and that they're getting in the way of true innovation across what is the biggest asset class in the world, and that is the dollar.

Speaker 20 So we know we're going to get, we're going to get less regulation, which will be, if you're a bull on Bitcoin and innovation around this stuff, there'll be more investment into the category.

Speaker 20 You can already imagine. Andreessen and some other funds starting to deploy capital again into the crypto world.
You're going to see more fraud, more people lose money, more shitcoins.

Speaker 20 You probably will see, to be fair, more innovation. You'll see less regulation.
You'll see soaring prices, I believe, across some of the mainstays. It's already happened, Bitcoin, maybe ETH.

Speaker 20 But you're also going to see

Speaker 20 a bunch of people basically, Gensler will be gone. You'll see

Speaker 20 what you also might see, though, is actual stimulus or support. I can see, I just, I wouldn't be surprised if these guys were money good on being publicly very supportive of him.

Speaker 20 And in exchange, their payback now or their compensation is he's going to say, each year we're going to take, you know, $100 billion and put it into this asset class called Bitcoin.

Speaker 20 I wouldn't be surprised if he basically comes up with something that not only blesses it and reduces regulation,

Speaker 20 but creates stimulus for

Speaker 20 this sector. So you're about to see a massive, you're map, you're about to see the go-go days again, I think, in kind of blockchain and crypto and funds pop up and start deploying capital again.

Speaker 21 Yeah, we'll see. And lots of problems, of course, if there's no regulation.

Speaker 21 Moving on to the bigger picture of the economy, voters cited the economy as one of their top concerns in exit polls, and clearly they think Trump is the man to manage these things.

Speaker 21 A reminder, Trump has pros high tariffs and targeted tax breaks. He's also floating, ending federal income tax and replacing it with revenue from tariffs.

Speaker 21 He said the economic plan will rapidly defeat inflation, which most people think the opposite, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.

Speaker 21 How soon before inflation goes up? You just mentioned it.

Speaker 21 Talk about that. What do you think?

Speaker 21 The tariff thing is terrifying to most economists.

Speaker 20 Yeah, but to be fair. What he said.

Speaker 21 What he said, what he said about tariffs.

Speaker 20 So he's proposing anywhere from like 60 to 100% tariffs. To be fair, what the market is saying, and so far the market's kind of gotten it right.

Speaker 20 I thought polymarket, these betting markets, were way overestimating the probability that he would win. Very early in the evening, if you went on polymarket, it had him at 90-10.
And I thought, what?

Speaker 20 90%, there's no path.

Speaker 20 But basically, the market is saying that they believe, as far as if I tried to interpret the market, that they believe there's going to be a split government and he won't be able to push through these economically disastrous tariffs because the market does not seem that spooked.

Speaker 20 The credit market does think there's going to be inflation, but we live in a consumer economy. And if you saw these tariffs actually

Speaker 20 implemented, I do think you'd immediately see a recession. And the market, I think, is saying we don't think he's going to get these through or he's not going to go through with it.
Because

Speaker 20 these actual proposed tariffs

Speaker 20 are just insane in terms of what they would do to the economy.

Speaker 21 Yeah.

Speaker 20 Market's not buying it. Market doesn't think it's going to happen.

Speaker 21 They don't think he can do it, even though he talked about it.

Speaker 20 I think in general, the market has basically had a big yawn and said, other than cutting taxes on corporations and the wealthy, we think this is going to be, if I read what the markets are saying, we think this is a split government and there aren't going to be any radical changes to fundamental radical changes to Well, not if he wins the House also,

Speaker 20 which is still up for grabs, although it looks like it's I don't see, I can't imagine several Republicans, I think several Republicans are going to go Joe Manchin and love the limelight and say tariffs are a tax on the consumer.

Speaker 20 And I'm not comfortable with this. I do think you'd see some Republicans defect.

Speaker 21 Because he really can't come and get them the same way because he's almost dead, right? He's old. He's not going to be able to explain.

Speaker 20 He's not going to have the energy. He's not going to have the discipline.
88% of Christmas gifts under the Christmas tree are from China.

Speaker 20 You don't see that. And no one's really scared of fans, are they?

Speaker 21 Yeah.

Speaker 20 There's no making a populist argument saying, no, we can't have our Christmas gifts for our little ones go up.

Speaker 20 I mean, I don't think he's the market is saying they don't buy these tariffs, at least at the scale he's proposing.

Speaker 21 Yeah, yeah, because he's more enervated and he doesn't have the, he can't target people as well.

Speaker 21 He doesn't have that power that he has.

Speaker 20 Isn't he technically a lame duck president starting in about a month?

Speaker 21 Yeah, well, that's interesting to think about. And Vance certainly doesn't have the juice that other, that he does.
He's going to try to grab it, but I don't think he has the juice.

Speaker 21 Big tech leaders are taking to social media, of course, to congratulate Donald Trump.

Speaker 21 This is typical. Let's just start off with that.

Speaker 21 The one that stuck out, Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Sachinadella, Sunar Pachai, and Sam Altman wished Trump well. I thought they were pretty anodyne.
So did Mark Cuban. He was like, Godspeed.

Speaker 21 You know what I mean? He was like, you won fair and square, which I thought was fair. I thought that was classy of him to do so.
He didn't like slavishly. say something.

Speaker 21 The person who did, Jeff Bezos, was quite different from the others.

Speaker 21 He was on the first to kiss the ring, calling Trump's win an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory.

Speaker 21 It did not have a tone of someone who owns the Washington Post. He's the only one who actually has another thing he's got to think about, which he didn't at all in any way.

Speaker 21 So I thought that was problematic. And it was much more effusive than the others.

Speaker 21 You know, they all want to work with this administration. They've done it before.

Speaker 21 They don't want to be in his crosshairs, and they'd like to get rid of all the different investigations and things like that. Although a lot of Republicans like these investigations very much.

Speaker 21 And so that's a really interesting pushback.

Speaker 21 Talk a little bit about these CEOs, obviously.

Speaker 21 More than anyone, tech CEOs weighed in.

Speaker 20 They're smart to do it, Kara. He responds to this type of obsequious flattery.
And if

Speaker 20 they're focused on their shareholders, they're smart to do it. And

Speaker 20 you kind of have to, you throw up a little bit in your mouth when it's more than anything, just than just a polite congratulations.

Speaker 20 But if you reverse engineer it to shareholder value, they're smart to do it. Just like a lot of foreign leaders pretend that he's really interesting and that they're fascinated with him.
And

Speaker 20 he's going to get more, he's going to get more,

Speaker 20 you know, when

Speaker 20 you're courting someone and they tell you that they're really into jewelry or baseball trading cards and that they will like you if you buy them these things, you buy them these things.

Speaker 20 And he's made it clear that if you say nice things about them, it works.

Speaker 20 So I think they're smart to do it.

Speaker 21 Yeah, I agree, but I thought Bezos was a little bit abusive. Compare.
If you could put them next to each other, it's really quite a different tone. And he does also own the Washington Post.

Speaker 21 He might have been a little less assy.

Speaker 20 It's a rat field. It's all about money.
The Washington Post is a bad thing. I understand that, but nothing but a name.

Speaker 21 He shouldn't own it then. He shouldn't own it then.

Speaker 20 Stop owning something where you have to.

Speaker 20 We're talking about should versus is.

Speaker 20 Jeff Bezos is all about money.

Speaker 21 He already did that already with the dumping the endorsement. So I just felt like he should have maybe been a little less kiss assy.
That's my view.

Speaker 20 But you're saying he's the wrong owner, and we've agreed.

Speaker 21 Yes, that's correct. Anything about the Peter Thiel factor? I think he's the quiet one here.

Speaker 21 Musk gets all the, we're going to talk about Elon in a second, but I think Peter Thiel is the one, the real mastermind here in so many ways.

Speaker 21 And I know people, I thought he clocked Trump early and was in there at the last election. I think he clocked Vance.

Speaker 21 I think he's been quiet. He doesn't need all the attention the way Musk does.
I think he's far smarter than Elon Musk in many ways.

Speaker 21 And I think he's

Speaker 21 all roads lead to Peter Thiel in this regard, even though it seemed like he was out of the election, right? But I don't, I feel like every one of his tenants is here, is present here.

Speaker 20 You, you first highlighted this to me, and it struck me as something I hadn't, I just hadn't thought about it.

Speaker 20 Not at least I hadn't connected the dots the way you had, and I've thought about it more and more. And I think what you're saying makes sense because, I mean, here's the scary thing.

Speaker 20 With Trump's age and body mass index, there's about a one in three chance he leaves the White House feet first.

Speaker 20 You know, in four years and two months, an obese, what is he, 78-year-old man, it would be very hard to get life insurance.

Speaker 20 And that puts a guy in the White House who will never utter one word to Peter Thiel, and that word is no.

Speaker 20 He owes everything to Peter Thiel.

Speaker 20 That's how he got to be a senator. That's how he got the VP spot.

Speaker 20 And so, if Peter Thiel calls him and says, I need you to do this tax or put a tariff here or deregulate this or create a floating island where billionaires don't have to pay tax or we totally ban the following activities.

Speaker 20 Vance, if he can, will do it. I just don't think Vance could ever say no to Peter.

Speaker 20 He is where he is. He is one heartbeat from the presidency because not because of an impressive business career, not because he's a great politician, because of Peter Thiel.
Yep.

Speaker 21 That's the one to watch. And even though Elon, as usual, the circus clown, likes to take all the attention, as Bloomberg put it, Elon is about to find out what $130 million for Trump gets him.

Speaker 21 We mentioned the Tesla stock surge. That's added $26 billion to his net worth.

Speaker 21 But Elon stands to benefit in a number of other ways, including government efficiency commission role, EV and autonomous driving policies that benefit Tesla, and more government contracts for SpaceX.

Speaker 21 Trump has previously pledged his support for Elon's goal of sending a rocket to Mars. That one I don't mind so much.
I honestly don't. And as I mentioned, I think Elon merges X with True Social.

Speaker 21 So I also think think they're going to have a falling out. I really feel like this is coming.
If I had to make any one prediction, that's what I feel like.

Speaker 21 Peter is very quiet in the background and gets exactly what he wants. Elon can't help himself, and neither can Trump.
And Trump's the president. So thoughts?

Speaker 20 This, arguably, you could say that Musk's $119 million

Speaker 20 in donations to Trump were one of the best investments that's ever been made.

Speaker 20 He made it over approximately three or six months, and in exchange, his net worth has gone up $15 billion just from his Tesla shares, which skyrocketed on

Speaker 20 news that Trump was retaking the White House. So, if someone said to any billionaire or any institution or any hedge fund,

Speaker 20 here's $119 million.

Speaker 20 If you give us $119 million, we think if the markets are right, there's a two-thirds chance you're going to get $15 billion back.

Speaker 21 Yep.

Speaker 20 So

Speaker 20 you got to give it to the guy. It's all along the whole time.
The best investment of the year was Musk's dollar,

Speaker 20 his $119 million investment in the Trump campaign.

Speaker 21 Yeah, because

Speaker 21 if she had won, he was never going to get that dinged for it.

Speaker 20 No.

Speaker 21 Yeah, that's exactly right.

Speaker 20 $15 billion on $119 million. That's the best trade of 2024.

Speaker 21 Yeah. So what's going to happen next now?

Speaker 20 Well, so I need to disclose, we talked about this. I was planning, you know, under C Above got it wrong.

Speaker 20 I thought Polymark at the gambling site, which had, it was 40, 60, which is owned by Peter Thiel, FYI or is invested in by Peter Thiel. I didn't know that.

Speaker 20 So 40, 60 Harris to Trump's likelihood of being elected. So you were going to get two and a half to one.

Speaker 20 I saw that as an asymmetric upside because I thought it was a coin flip according to the polls that I saw. So I was going to take $400,000

Speaker 20 and put it on Harris thinking I could get a million back. And I want to be clear for people listening.
This is not investing. This is gambling.
And I can afford to lose that.

Speaker 20 And it would ruin maybe an afternoon, but it wouldn't have any impact on my life. And I don't want to, in any way, tell people that they should be doing this.
So, but I was planning to do it.

Speaker 20 So I went to the site, signed up for it, wait till Harris went down to 38, then up to 42.

Speaker 20 And the site said, you can't be a U.S. citizen.
And then it said, you can't transfer money in from the UK. So I could not figure out how to get one of these betting sites up.

Speaker 20 So I went to a different strategy.

Speaker 20 I decided to, I sold, I did a caller call strategy on Donald Trump Media. And that is, I thought, if this stock, if he loses, the stock goes below 10.

Speaker 20 If he wins, it could skyrocket. But I also thought if he wins, this is no longer a prediction vessel.
It's just a shitty company.

Speaker 20 And I actually thought there's a chance it might go down even if he wins. So

Speaker 20 I sold

Speaker 20 calls at 20 bucks a share way,

Speaker 20 way

Speaker 20 into the money, thinking this thing could crash. There's a good likelihood it could crash.

Speaker 20 But I was worried, well, what if something fucking crazy happens and it goes to 400 and I owe someone $8 million who I sold these calls to? So I bought calls way out of the money at 60.

Speaker 20 I got $20 in premium for buying or selling calls at 20. I got six bucks.
It cost me six bucks to buy calls at 60. So my downside was limited to like 2.5 million bucks.

Speaker 20 My upside capped at $1.5 million. And what's happened is he won.
The stock spiked. I'm like, oh, fuck, bad day for Scott.

Speaker 20 But since then, the strategy around it's no longer a tracking stock, it's just a shitty company now.

Speaker 20 It's come down. I think it opened at about 31 bucks today.

Speaker 21 Yeah, it's gone down.

Speaker 20 So I got very lucky. It's better to be lucky than good.
I was going to make a straight wager on Harris and couldn't because I'm in the UK and I'm impatient with websites. Oh, you can't use it.

Speaker 21 Yeah, that's right. Yeah.

Speaker 20 So this, this kind of, I think it's called a collared call strategy so far.

Speaker 20 So far is working out because Donald Trump Media, I think people are waking up and going, okay, now what? This is a shitty little company that's

Speaker 20 no longer a prediction machine or a gambling. It's basically shares or ownership in a company that has no revenues, but is hemorrhaging money.

Speaker 21 Yeah, interesting. We'll wait and see for you.
But anyway, Peter Thiel has, along with the founder of Ethereum, raised money for Polymarket

Speaker 21 earlier this year, just so you know, he's involved in that one too.

Speaker 21 It's interesting times, but

Speaker 21 Musk and Trump falling out.

Speaker 21 Thought, real quick thought, then we'll go on you know more about this than i do kara what it's an interesting theory why do you think because you there was a movie with jean-claude van dam where the future and the past person could never come together it was called time cop i recommend it to everybody um and you couldn't ever be in the same room with your future self and your present self or your past self whatever because it would blow up the world can't take that in the same place.

Speaker 21 And at the very end, the villain gets into a, he gets them to get in a room together, and then everything breaks loose and they blow up, essentially. I don't quite understand it.
Whatever.

Speaker 21 I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much, for too long.

Speaker 21 That's my sense. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, but I feel like that Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around.

Speaker 21 And if the same, remember when Bannon got kicked out when he got all the attention as being the puppet master of Trump?

Speaker 21 And then Bannon got, I know, he didn't get totally kicked to the curve. He kept getting brought back, but kicked to the curb and brought back.
He kicked Bannon to the curb very early.

Speaker 21 We forget this in the Trump administration because he sucked up all the oxygen. So Elon might be very smart to not suck up all the oxygen.
That's my feeling.

Speaker 20 So

Speaker 20 I don't have a view on this other than a better version of Time Cop is the 2012 movie Looper starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Bruce Willis. Oh, yeah.

Speaker 20 Also with Emily Blunt, Piper Perabeau, and a vastly underrated actor, who's one of the best actors out there, who

Speaker 20 should have been nominated for his role in Escape from Danim or a guy named Paul Dano, who was also in Little Miss Sunshine. Anyways, that's a great movie in the same concept.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 Would you like to go back and meet your past self, Scott?

Speaker 20 I've thought about this a lot. I would like to go back to my past self and just say, trust me, everything's going to work out.

Speaker 20 Really? I could have used to hear that a few times.

Speaker 21 Interesting.

Speaker 20 How about you? Would you like to go back and

Speaker 21 I am the same person, so no, not really.

Speaker 20 Yeah, but would you like to go back and say anything to your younger self?

Speaker 21 Maybe invest in something.

Speaker 20 Buy NVIDIA, bitch. Buy NVIDIA.

Speaker 21 Take that job.

Speaker 20 Sell the Subaru

Speaker 20 Subaru Impreza and put it all in NVIDIA.

Speaker 21 Yeah. No, actually, take some of those jobs I was offered and then have the money to become Elon Musk of presidential politics.

Speaker 20 Anyway, take some of those jobs I was offered.

Speaker 21 Well, I was offered jobs at all the big tech companies. I would have been very wealthy.

Speaker 20 I would have been. You are very wealthy.
Because you just have to be a good person. No, but I would have been a big

Speaker 20 dog.

Speaker 20 That's right.

Speaker 20 Everyone asks asks on Reddit why she puts up with me. Three words, Ben Jamin.

Speaker 21 Benjamin, that's it. No, I like you.
I like you. You're one of the first person I want to talk to after this.
I like you.

Speaker 21 All right. Let's go on a quick break.
We come back. We'll talk about what regulation of these big tech companies will look like under Trump, plus the future of the TikTok ban.
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Speaker 21 Scott, we're back with more on what the second Trump era means for tech and business. Let's start with antitrust regulation.
We talked earlier about Gary Gensler. Let's move on to FTC chair Lena Kahn.

Speaker 21 Elon Musk wants her fired. J.D.
Vance has said he's a fan. I'm guessing she'll probably go, but the F FTC, if people don't forget, is currently suing Amazon and Meta.

Speaker 21 And the Meta case was launched originally under Trump and would lead to Meta unwinding Instagram and WhatsApp.

Speaker 21 I don't really know what's going to happen here. There's all these conflicting people in the Republican Party about her.
As you know, there's conservatives. I think J.D.
Vance is one of them.

Speaker 21 Thoughts on that?

Speaker 20 I actually am betting she's going to stay.

Speaker 20 She's one of the few,

Speaker 20 I mean, think about it. She's one of the few individuals that has fans on both sides, even if she has more fans on the Democratic side.
She's not offensive. She strikes me as quite politically astute.

Speaker 20 And also, Trump is not a big fan of some of the companies she's going after.

Speaker 20 He doesn't have the attention span to stay that focused on this.

Speaker 20 And doesn't it kind of soften his image to leave the existing younger, wonky woman in as chair of the FDC?

Speaker 21 Yeah, I don't know. I don't know.
I have to do more reporting on it to find out. But I mean, a lot of these tech companies are hoping that's what will happen and these, these will go.

Speaker 20 They shall be kicked out. Yeah.

Speaker 20 Yeah, but he's, it's really, I'm curious.

Speaker 21 Yeah, there's competing forces here.

Speaker 21 Vance particularly and Matt Gates, he's still hit with us, unfortunately.

Speaker 21 You know, those people are quite fans of them and they don't trust big tech.

Speaker 21 They'd have to kowtow to Elon now, but I think in general, they're not tech fans.

Speaker 20 But if he's just playing playing poker and thinking about leverage, why wouldn't he let these antitrust actions and trials continue?

Speaker 20 And then right when it gets to the eve, when he has real power, maybe call him and say, I want this and I'll kill it. I don't know.
Why wouldn't he play poker and continue to turn the screws on him?

Speaker 21 Yeah, it's called, he loves it. Someone, you know, that two dogs in a box thing, he likes that.
He does that all the time at his other company.

Speaker 20 The knife fight in a closet.

Speaker 21 Yeah, something like that.

Speaker 21 Let's move on to the DOJ, which is suing Apple for monopolizing the smartphone market. Then there are the two Google anti-monopoly cases, the one over ad tech and the other over search.

Speaker 21 The search one was originally launched by Trump's DOJ. The district court judge ruled this summer that Google has an illegal monopoly over search, but remedies won't get decided until the summer.

Speaker 21 I'm not so sure he has control over this at this point. He seemed to switch gears on breaking up Google, saying if you do that, are you going to destroy the company?

Speaker 21 What can you do without breaking it up to make sure it's more fair?

Speaker 21 Again, same thing. I'm not sure he has as much control over this as that because the case has already been decided, but certainly,

Speaker 21 you know, we'll see what happens. There'll be another antitrust person.
It'll be interesting to see who he picks. That'll matter rather than John Cantor.

Speaker 20 This is a guy that supposedly every person that presented to him was coached by the people who knew Trump.

Speaker 20 Just a few words and pictures.

Speaker 20 So I think anything that's complicated and exhausting, like the nuance of the DOJ trial, I think ultimately he just moves on and forgets about it. I don't.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 These are going forward, I think.

Speaker 20 I don't think he's that. I think he's like a cat chase, like, oh, look over here, a cat chasing a red dot.
So I think this stuff, my guess would be

Speaker 20 this stuff to explain why we're not doing it, bringing someone new, all the meetings required, all the economists he needs to talk to. I think he'll just get exhausted by it and say, oh, fuck it.

Speaker 20 Just let him do it.

Speaker 21 Well, they may try to slip it by him, right?

Speaker 21 I don't know. I feel like Devance will be important here in this.

Speaker 20 Or he could be.

Speaker 21 He could insert himself in this. We'll see.

Speaker 20 He might get

Speaker 20 that worked to Vance. Yeah, that's interesting.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 But obviously, everyone is focusing on TikTok. Trump is the first president to own his own social network, as shitty as it is.
He tried to roll back.

Speaker 21 portions of Section 230 during his first term rather cloddishly. Didn't work.
He wanted to ban TikTok in his first term.

Speaker 21 Back in september he wanted to put mark zuckerberg in jail um he seemed to change his mind on tick tock um do you think the ban is off the table it's certainly it's been passed though by congress so where does this go this this case There's so many moving parts here that we're not privy to.

Speaker 20 One of his biggest owners is this guy, Yass, who's Jeff Yass. Jeff Yas, whose biggest position is in TikTok.

Speaker 20 He has a lot of probably people who are big investors. Sequoia Capital, General Attic Partners, are in TikTok.
He claims that he's he's angry at Meta and TikTok is a threat to Meta.

Speaker 20 He could get on the phone with she and say, okay, you stop this bullshit around tariffs. You do this, I'll do this.
And they come to some sort of agreement. Or he could decide

Speaker 20 to let them continue to do their work. And maybe Ellison calls him and says, if you ban it, I'm going to buy it.

Speaker 20 I mean, there's so many moving parts in backroom dealing that's going to happen here that I think it's very hard to pass the ban.

Speaker 21 So the ban,

Speaker 21 it's not a maybe thing. It's a they have till this time to do something.

Speaker 20 Can he reverse it though?

Speaker 20 I don't think so. By executive order, could he extend the stay?

Speaker 21 So we have to find out.

Speaker 20 The honest answer is I don't know.

Speaker 21 Yeah. But where do you imagine he'll go? And talk a little bit about Mehta when he threatened to put Mark Zuckerberg, who's kissing his ass now in jail.

Speaker 20 I don't think he's going to go there. I mean, I'm turning into one of these people.
I don't want to be one of these people that finds his threats cute or, oh, he's not going to actually do that.

Speaker 20 I think it would be very difficult. And I think if Mark Zuckerberg, I mean, Mark Zuckerberg is very powerful.
If Mark Zuckerberg actually believes he might go to jail,

Speaker 20 you want to see someone put their thumb on the scale of certain types of content.

Speaker 20 If someone was coming for me for jail,

Speaker 20 I would. I would very elegantly, quietly, and in a disciplined fashion, put that whole ridiculous governance board, shove them to the side and say,

Speaker 20 I'm going to show you what it's like when you threaten to put me in jail. And you know what? People aren't even going to know what's going on because I control two-thirds of their newsfeed.

Speaker 20 And if you think the CCP has turned up polarization and division within America amongst our youth, wait and see what I do to you, boss.

Speaker 21 I don't know if he has the set to do it, but okay.

Speaker 20 That Zuckerberg has the set to do it?

Speaker 21 Yeah.

Speaker 20 I don't know. I think jail is pretty fucking scary.

Speaker 20 I think the prospect of jail, or let me put it this way, the opportunity to stay out of jail, if this guy really starts threatening you with what I'm sure Mark believes is illegal incarceration, he's going to say, all right, all right, bitch, you want to dance?

Speaker 20 Let's dance. Because people forget, Mark Zuckerberg

Speaker 20 is, hands down, one of the most powerful people in the world. When you control,

Speaker 20 when you, back to what you were saying about misinformation, more Republicans were worried about the peaceful transfer of power than Democrats.

Speaker 20 This is such, this, if anything brings home to you the power of social media, it's that.

Speaker 20 And to think that Mark Zuckerberg could make life very difficult for Donald Trump is not to acknowledge the fact that two-thirds of Americans are now getting their news from meta.

Speaker 21 Yeah.

Speaker 21 Yeah, it's interesting because Elon's explicitly aggressive and Mark certainly could be.

Speaker 21 It's not his style to be threatening, I would think. Anyway, it'll be interesting.
It's interesting to see who they try to go after.

Speaker 21 You know, I was joking with Mark Cuban that we're going to share a jail cell and we can call ourselves the Menendez brothers,

Speaker 21 except with 100% less murder.

Speaker 21 But I don't think he's.

Speaker 20 Who wears the wig? And who has, who starts dating the, who starts eyeing the hot guy in the shower? That's what I want to know. Wait, that guy's a tall drink of lemonade.
Have you been watching that?

Speaker 20 He's very sexy. He's very sexy.

Speaker 21 Now, the last thing, what do you think it means for content and moderation in general? They're not going to do it. They're tired.
They're not going to do it anymore.

Speaker 20 No, it's the fucking Wild West. No.
I mean, if there's

Speaker 20 a lack of content moderation got him elected. Republicans are worried about the peaceful transfer of power and democracy.
Thank you, misinformation.

Speaker 21 Yep, exactly.

Speaker 21 They now know they don't have to do anything. And I think, again, we're going to be studying this in 10 years.
The propaganda is such an important part of what happened here.

Speaker 21 All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

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Speaker 21 Scott, we're back. We're going to do wins today.
Only wins. We're going to skip fails because there's a lot of them and focus on the positive.
Why don't you go first?

Speaker 20 So I have

Speaker 20 one about the election, one just more about economics. So I'll have two wins.

Speaker 20 I think one way to feel, if you're feeling bad about this, is, and I want to highlight, I think a lot of people should feel

Speaker 20 some consolation because I know so many people who just left it all on the field, so to speak. My friends, Robert May, my

Speaker 20 partner at Propsy Media, Catherine Dillon, her husband

Speaker 20 Jeffrey, Liz Plank showed up at a rally in Philadelphia. My friend Whitney Tilson, these are people who got on planes from LA or trains from D.C.

Speaker 20 They went to Philadelphia and started knocking on doors. And while I imagine they're devastated, they can feel like, I showed up, I tried.
I think there are so many people

Speaker 20 that

Speaker 20 really tried hard.

Speaker 20 So my win is people who, quote unquote, left it on the field.

Speaker 20 The other win is I really do believe that we're about to to see disruption amongst local television stations who got about, I mean, just hundreds of millions of dollars in spending, actually three to one from the Harris campaign towards the end, thinking that old people decide elections and they can find them all on local news, which I describe as a depiction of what stupid people did today.

Speaker 20 Oh, two people in a...

Speaker 20 in a in a in a car in a bad part of town got robbed today. I mean, anyways, you're going to see most of that money not even go to digital.
It's going to go to podcasts, Kara.

Speaker 20 This was the election of the Manosphere as brought to you by podcasters. And you're going to see, and there's, when you think about it, when's the last time we had a political ad?

Speaker 20 We haven't.

Speaker 20 You're about to see a disruption in the local news, broadcast, television advertising market. And all of that money is going to go to podcasts.

Speaker 20 And if you look at graphs of attention versus revenue, 20 years ago, it was the internet is a third of time and 8% of revenue and newspapers were 8% of time and a third of revenue and it flipped.

Speaker 20 Money always follows attention and attention is skyrocketing. In 2025, we're going to see podcast revenue accelerate faster than TikTok, Meta, or Alphabet.

Speaker 20 And then in 26, we're going to see a massive disruption and transfer of advertising dollars from local news stations to podcasts because that's where voters are hanging out. This was no

Speaker 20 amongst seniors. Yeah, they voted.
And actually, interestingly enough, seniors was the only age group that went more Harris where Harris actually picked up votes versus 2020.

Speaker 20 But what they're going to find is the swingiest of swing voters are young people. They're the ones that are most impressionable and most up for grabs.
And guess what?

Speaker 20 Where's their medium? Podcast.

Speaker 21 I can't agree with you more. I mean, I was, I'm, I'm already talking to people who are well-known.
Like, here's what we're going to do. We're taking advantage of this and building our own.

Speaker 21 If there's a bro sphere there's another sphere right that you can really do well on and motivate and excite people right and not a bubble but really bring people together in a really interesting i think it's an opportunity i've been thinking of podcast ideas all day um uh i agree with you i think in two years second one in two years our our advertisers and not two years 22 months from now it's not going to be zip recruiter or athletic greens or linkedin

Speaker 20 we like them we love them it's going to be so-and-so candidate for for Senator, Congress, or president. You watch.
You're about to see

Speaker 20 billions of dollars flush into the system and economics always end up catching up to attention and attention is scarce.

Speaker 20 And not only that, the great white rhino of advertisers is the individual they no longer can reach. And that's a young, wealthy male.
Where are they?

Speaker 20 Podcasts.

Speaker 21 Yeah. But I'm just saying, it doesn't have to be just bros.
There's other, the bro sphere isn't the only sphere and there's other spheres. Well, I just just that's all I'm saying.

Speaker 20 Prof G is 80% male, pivot is 70%, average household income $150,000.

Speaker 20 That's called an advertiser's dream because those people are stupid and spend money on high-margin products like watches and cars and supplements and all this crazy high-margin shit.

Speaker 20 They're all on

Speaker 20 the demographic.

Speaker 20 The average viewer, age of a viewer on MSNBC is 70 years old. The average podcast listener is 34, which means for every person my age, there's someone who just became a voter.

Speaker 20 So, and those people spend a lot of money on high-margin irrational products, which is Latin for advertisers love those people.

Speaker 20 I think all the moons are lining up.

Speaker 21 What you're telling me is you're going to turn into a Joe Rogan suddenly over the next couple of years, and I'll have to kill you, right?

Speaker 20 Well, I hope we both turn into Joe Rogan in terms of our reach and our money.

Speaker 21 Reach is different than our attitude.

Speaker 20 You're talking to the guy who pulled his podcast down from Spotify because of vaccine. I know

Speaker 21 I know. I'm just watching.
I have to watch. I watch you because sometimes it's invasion of the body snatchers.
I've had several friends who've turned in ways I really can't avoid. I have to say.

Speaker 21 So it's an invasion of the body snatchers things. Don't fall asleep, Scott.
Don't fall asleep. What?

Speaker 21 You never saw Invasion of the Body Snatchers?

Speaker 20 Donald Sutherland.

Speaker 21 And if you fall asleep, you become snatched.

Speaker 20 You get snatched. What was that name? That was one of my first crutches.
Who's the female lead in that? Oh,

Speaker 20 Brooke, Brooke.

Speaker 20 Oh, very good.

Speaker 21 brooke something ah we're not gonna she was amazing what happened to her

Speaker 20 like all female actresses she hit 40 and couldn't find another job um

Speaker 20 brooke brooke adams oh man broke adams she was very good actually jeff goldbloom was in that god is that was he how what uh my my guess is his agent called the director and got him in it um

Speaker 20 uh Leonard Niemoy was in it. Oh my gosh.

Speaker 21 Well, go back. Let's go back and watch that together and then we'll wear our pajamas.
All right. So here's mine.

Speaker 21 I know everyone's feeling bad and I do. And I wrote a very, as I said, a long thread that like I was walking and like at least 50 people hugged me for my thread, which was fascinating to me.

Speaker 21 But one of the things that you,

Speaker 21 they're always like, I got a lot of right-wing people like, now you see we're right. I'm like, you're not that right.
It was 50%.

Speaker 21 And they really want you to like feel bad about feeling the way you do. Your opinions are just as good as anybody else's if you have them, if you feel that abortion is important, if you feel that

Speaker 21 whatever you think is important is important because it's what you think about it. And so don't give in to the now we have to understand them.
They don't want to understand us either.

Speaker 21 And I don't mean not to get along, but everyone's going to try to bring you to heal now.

Speaker 21 And don't. We don't have to like it.
You don't have to cooperate.

Speaker 21 I think a lot of what Trump was appealing to was rancor and selfishness. Fine.
That's, I get it. You don't, but you don't have to be easy.
You can resist. You can say no.

Speaker 21 Don't feel the need to be nice. In fact, be disrespectful.
They do it and worked for them.

Speaker 21 And I don't mean all the time, be the person you are. And also lose people who tell you to accept this.
If they don't, if you are not on the same plane, lose them. I'm sorry.

Speaker 21 It's okay to feel angry, fed up, disappointed. It's required.
And so I just, I'm not going to, just like they don't apologize, I'm not apologizing.

Speaker 21 And so I feel like there's always moments where you can get together and understand and listen to each other 100 fucking percent, but you do not have to agree.

Speaker 21 You do not have to knuckle under and you just fight for what you believe in and listen to what they have and try to build coalitions in that regard.

Speaker 21 But we are never, this election said anything is we do not agree. So how do we figure out a way to get somewhere where we're all moving forward? That's my feeling.
Thank you very much.

Speaker 21 That's my speech.

Speaker 20 I like that. And

Speaker 20 just to add on to that, something also very important is that we talk about Brooke Adams' filmography. She was not only in The Invasion of the Body Snatchers.
She was so good.

Speaker 20 She was in what I believe is one of the most underrated films from one of the greatest authors in history, Stephen King's The Dead Zone, who's starring Christopher Watkin.

Speaker 20 That is it, and also Martin Sheen. That is a fantastic film.
And a quick fun fact here, she is married to Tony Shaloub of Monk Fame. What an interesting couple.
What? Oh my God, Brooke Adams.

Speaker 21 Wait, she is?

Speaker 20 Yeah, since they've been married for 32 years.

Speaker 21 Kevin, I just met her because he came up to me in Nantucket and said he loved the podcast.

Speaker 20 Really?

Speaker 20 Yeah. That guy's a real talent.

Speaker 20 He's really talented.

Speaker 21 Yes, the guy who was Monk. Yeah.
And then he was on Marvelous Miss Maisel.

Speaker 20 Oh, my God. She was with him.

Speaker 21 I didn't know that.

Speaker 20 This is awesome. See, that's a victory for everybody.

Speaker 21 She was standing next to him. I didn't recognize her.

Speaker 20 That's a victory for every guy who's not that attractive, but is very talented and funny who can get away. He is attractive.

Speaker 21 so?

Speaker 20 Very hot woman. Very hot woman.

Speaker 21 He's totally attractive. Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. Then I actually met her and I didn't know it.
This is nuts.

Speaker 20 I love you, Brooke Adams.

Speaker 21 I love you, Brooke Adams. Let me just say I love you, Tony Shalouk, too.
Anyway, let's move on from the Brooke Adams Love Fest. Go back and watch her movies.
They're great.

Speaker 21 I want to also mention that on the latest episode of On with Kara Swisher, I spoke with two presidential historians today to get some perspective.

Speaker 21 It was really helpful to all of us as we try to anticipate what's ahead. One of those historians.

Speaker 20 Oh, stop it.

Speaker 21 No, these things do amazingly well on the pie. I'm sorry to tell you, Scott, they do well.
Lindsay Chervinsky offered a helpful reminder of how.

Speaker 20 And then Grover Cleveland said to the Secretary of Interior.

Speaker 21 She works. She does George Washington.
The other guy does Nixon. Let's listen.
Quiet, Scott Galloway.

Speaker 34 There are still ways that even if Trump can't always be held accountable, the people around him can be, whether it is through the rule of law, through our court system, through public accountability.

Speaker 34 And we have to continue to try and use every mechanism of accountability possible, which is, I think, the legal side or the public side of the don't, you know, obey in advance.

Speaker 34 But the best and most long-lasting way to combat authoritarianism is through accountability. And so we just have to keep trying because the most pernicious thing will be if we do give up hope.

Speaker 34 So we cannot give up and we have to keep trying to hold people to account.

Speaker 21 That's perfect.

Speaker 19 And the word you're looking for is, oh, no, you didn't.

Speaker 21 Anyway, it was a good interview. You should listen to it.

Speaker 20 We do incredibly well with those historians. We also had a presidential historian on property markets, and I'll give you, I'll let you guess who it was.

Speaker 20 He cited the following fact about presidents from George Washington to George Bush, total deficits, $7 trillion in four years with Donald Trump, $8 trillion.

Speaker 20 Guess who that presidential presidential historian was?

Speaker 20 Bash.

Speaker 20 Michael. Anthony Scaramucci,

Speaker 20 who is shockingly knowledgeable about history. He is.

Speaker 21 He is. He's a funny guy.
I love that. You know, when you were gone in August, that show, when we had him on, did incredibly well, by the way.
He does.

Speaker 20 Historians for the week. Wherever he goes.
He literally is the fan favorite of any podcast he goes on.

Speaker 21 Yeah, he's very funny. He's much, I think people are expecting him not to be quite as sharp.
I don't know why, but they do because of that

Speaker 21 time in the White House. Anyway, we want to hear from you.
Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

Speaker 21 Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-Pivot.

Speaker 21 Before we go, I want to share a clip from Amazon's election night special with Brian Williams, where, as you mentioned, you made an appearance.

Speaker 21 Brian had some fun with a classic Scott Galloway catchphrase at the end of your segment. And I think our loyal listeners will enjoy.
Let's listen.

Speaker 35 Those of you playing our home game, that was the first mention of champagne and cocaine for the evening. And the circle gets the square.
It goes to Scott Galloway in London.

Speaker 20 Thanks for that. I didn't know you were going to do that.
That's nice. Yes.

Speaker 21 Champagne and Campbell.

Speaker 20 Did you watch any of it on Amazon?

Speaker 21 I did not.

Speaker 20 Oh, it's really good. I still think CNN did the best job, but Amazon was really, it was really

Speaker 20 click. I went to sleep.
I didn't went to sleep. No.
I didn't have the energy.

Speaker 21 No. But champagne and cocaine.
That's the next four years. I think, you know, I think that kind of says it all.
Champagne.

Speaker 20 Splashing the cash, flinging the bling.

Speaker 20 Champagne and cocaine.

Speaker 21 Oh, I can't believe we have to look at that son of a bitch for four more years.

Speaker 20 Oh,

Speaker 21 the ridiculous hands, the tiny hands, the whole thing. I thought that was gone.
Oh, it's not. Okay.
Here we are.

Speaker 20 Stuck in the middle with each other. Stuck in the middle.
I know.

Speaker 21 We have each other. We have each other to deal with small hands and bad makeup.
All right, we'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot Scott Read Us Out.

Speaker 20 Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie Dratad introduced this episode.
Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Miss Averio, and Dan Shulan.

Speaker 20 Nushak Karo is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts.
Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine of Vox Media.

Speaker 9 You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/slash pod.

Speaker 20 We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.

Speaker 21 But sometimes it is.

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How Trump Will Impact the Economy, Big Tech, and Social Media

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