Why No One’s Winning Young Voters (Ep. 5)

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Speaker 6 Hey, everyone. Just wanted to let you know that we recorded this episode a few days before the debate that has changed everything.

Speaker 6 But we still want to bring you the episode that we recorded because the concerns that you're going to hear from these voters are concerns that they expressed before the debate, and they are concerns that they will express after the debate, I'm sure.

Speaker 6 So, with that, here's our episode.

Speaker 8 That's sort of where young people sit generationally in history in general: is like we are always the group of people that are going to be fighting and begging and demanding change.

Speaker 8 Like, we're never going to be okay with what the status quo is.

Speaker 8 So, even if Biden has been the most progressive president and we do talk about that, I think young people are always going to be the group that pushes us to be better, to have a more equitable and fair society because we've always been that way on every civil justice fight that's existed, in my opinion.

Speaker 8 So I think we just need to do a better job at talking to them.

Speaker 6 Anderson Clayton is a 26-year-old voter in a swing state who wants to see a generational shift in our politics. That makes her just like most Gen Z voters.

Speaker 6 What makes her different is that she decided to run for state party chair in North Carolina and is now the youngest person in America to ever hold that title.

Speaker 6 We called her up to talk about what she's hearing from young voters in North Carolina as she tries to flip the the state this November.

Speaker 6 A tough challenge in a place that's only competitive because of an electorate that keeps getting younger and more diverse.

Speaker 6 For a few decades now, young voters have been a big reason that Democrats win elections.

Speaker 6 In 2020, over half of 18 to 29-year-olds voted, low compared to other age groups, but still the highest youth turnout since the voting age was lowered to 18.

Speaker 6 For the first time ever, there were more Gen Z and millennial voters combined than there were baby boomers and the silent generation.

Speaker 6 And these voters supported Biden by around 20 points more than Trump, a huge gap that we also saw in the 2018 and 2022 midterms.

Speaker 6 But there are warning signs everywhere that 2024 may not look the same. You see it in polls, you hear it in focus groups, and you've probably heard it anecdotally.

Speaker 6 A lot of younger voters seem more disillusioned and angry than usual about politics, the two parties, and their presidential candidates.

Speaker 6 Democrats have always had challenges getting younger people to actually vote.

Speaker 6 But this time, there's a concern that even if they do vote, they might not support Biden or other Democrats by the same margins they have in the past.

Speaker 6 The big question, of course, is why?

Speaker 6 And what would actually motivate young voters to get out and help defeat Trump and MAGA politicians with the same turnout and margins that we saw in 2018, 2020, and 2022?

Speaker 6 We asked Anderson what she thinks.

Speaker 8 I think that parties in previous years have been the ways that people were motivated to turn out and vote.

Speaker 8 But I think, in terms of young people, issues are going to motivate them a lot more this year and in future generations and in future cycles of political organizing that we're going to see.

Speaker 8 And young people really care about specific policy issues. Finding a job, finding a house, being able to live, like deciding where they want to.
Do they want to start a family? Do they not?

Speaker 8 Like that should be their decision to make at the end of the day. Like Gaza, and I, because I think about it.

Speaker 8 I'm like, that is the one issue I hear so much talked about when we put young people in that category. We have heard the president call for a ceasefire.

Speaker 8 We've heard the vice president call for a ceasefire.

Speaker 8 Like, I am not negating that that is a huge issue for a lot of young people, especially a lot of politically active young people that are aware of that issue, have been aware of it, and know what's going on and have also come into a political awakening on it.

Speaker 8 But I also think that like young voters, especially in the South right now, have seen our rights be fundamentally stripped from us.

Speaker 8 And I think that people here in this region of the country care a lot about what is happening at the state level and at the local level, because it is causing us to not be able to see a future staying in the state that we grew up in, that we care about, that we want to live in for the next 50 years.

Speaker 8 And so a lot of those issues look like housing affordability. It looks like wages in North Carolina, abortion rights is something that I hear from college campuses every day when I'm on them.

Speaker 8 And also the fact, I mean, UNC Chapel Hill had two school shooter drills last year alone, and they had a faculty member that unfortunately was killed with an active shooter on one of their campuses.

Speaker 8 And that came from our state legislature repealing the pistol permit vote that came down in 2023. And we have seen this legislature come for young people.

Speaker 8 And I'm like, God, if I can't get y'all motivated by the fact that these people are literally stripping away your fundamental freedom, I don't know what more I can do in this election cycle.

Speaker 6 This will sound repetitive, but contrary to the impression you may get from the news and social media, it turns out that the majority of young people care most about the same issues nearly every other group of voters cares about.

Speaker 6 Their cost of living, their basic rights and freedoms, and the safety of their communities.

Speaker 6 The difference is, they are more doubtful than most that the people who represent them will actually be able to deliver for them, especially when those politicians' life experiences seem so different and distant from their own.

Speaker 8 I tell people all the time, I'm like, young people got to organize young folks. Like, did you listen to your parents necessarily? Probably not.

Speaker 8 Like, we listen to the people in the community that is around us. And like, what is our voting block feeling about this election cycle?

Speaker 8 Do they feel the doom and gloom that's provided to us every day with a phone screen that tells you you can do nothing about politics whatsoever, You can't change it?

Speaker 8 Or do they listen to the person that's out there in their group chat that's saying, hey, I'm going out to knock doors today for Joe Biden and for Kamala Harris or for Josh Stein and for Allison Riggs, who's running for Supreme Court in North Carolina.

Speaker 8 I need you to come out with me. Let's go out and knock doors for a candidate that actually wants to see a future that envisions young people in it in this community.

Speaker 6 Anderson's last point is an important one. Even though younger voters have the same concerns as other generations, they have the longest future ahead of them.

Speaker 6 And they're not going to participate in a political system that doesn't focus on that future, especially when it seems so uncertain right now.

Speaker 6 So how do we convince young voters that their participation is the only way to fix what's broken about politics?

Speaker 6 How do we get more Anderson Claytons, or even just enough young people who are willing to stave off the threat of Trumpism again?

Speaker 6 A few weeks ago, I caught up with two people who've been talking to young voters and asking these questions for years, John DeLa Volpe and Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Speaker 6 John is an advisor to the Biden campaign, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School of Politics, and the author of Fight, How Gen Z is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America.

Speaker 6 Kristen is a pollster who leads focus groups for the New York Times and is the author of The Selfie Vote, Where Millennials Are Leading America and How Republicans Can Keep Up.

Speaker 6 You'll hear our conversation next, followed by more from Anderson on what's happening on the ground in North Carolina this year.

Speaker 6 I'm Jon Favreau. Welcome to the wilderness.

Speaker 6 All right, so we are talking this season about different groups of undecided voters who aren't yet sold on Joe Biden or Donald Trump or even voting at all.

Speaker 6 And I wanted to talk to the two of you because one of the biggest mysteries of this election is what's going on with young voters, a group both of of you have spent years polling, studying, talking to, writing entire books about.

Speaker 6 So I guess the first thing I'd love to hear your thoughts on is this. Historically, the debate about younger voters has been whether or not they'll show up.
Still a big question in this race.

Speaker 6 But now there's a debate about who they'll vote for.

Speaker 6 We've seen some polls like yours, John, like the most recent CBS poll that show Biden maintaining roughly the same advantage with younger voters that he had in 2020.

Speaker 6 Other polls that show Trump gaining quite a bit of support among these voters. John, what do you think is going on here?

Speaker 9 I think

Speaker 9 it really is

Speaker 9 dependent upon the definition of the poll, definition of the sample. The poll that you're referring to, which is the 25th year at Harvard, shows among likely voters that the race is relatively normal.

Speaker 9 In other words, the Democrat, you know, five or six months out when we conducted the survey, is in the mid-50s. Republican,

Speaker 9 somewhere in the mid-30s. So among that relatively narrow set of likely voters, that's kind of what I see.
And I think that's what was reflected in the CBS YouGov poll over the weekend.

Speaker 9 When we broaden that up, when we look at registered voters, when we look at the entire 18 to 29-year-old cohort, or when we add in

Speaker 9 third-party and independent candidates, the data becomes more opaque. And I think that's where we see a significant shift relative to what we would expect to be at this point.

Speaker 9 But right now, where I sit, it looks relatively normal when we look at likely voters. Kristen, what do you think?

Speaker 5 I think that I look at polls like John's and I put a lot of stock in them because they are specifically looking just at young voters. I do polls all the time of the broader electorate.

Speaker 5 And out of a thousand likely voters, the slice that's going to be in that 18 to 29 group is relatively small.

Speaker 5 Sometimes we're doing sampling using online panels that are matched back to the voter file in our data. That's one way that we try to ensure good data quality, but it doesn't fix everything.

Speaker 5 And so if you asked me, what do I trust more, a subsample of a survey or John's survey, I would say John's survey. 100 times out of 100.

Speaker 5 And so I think when it comes to the data where you're looking just at young voters, not at a small sub-sample that bounces around a lot, you do pretty consistently see a story of young voters being not that in love with Joe Biden, maybe being open to the idea of voting for Donald Trump, but they are not conservatives.

Speaker 5 They are not Republicans. And that's an important distinction to make.

Speaker 6 Okay, I want to take a step back and talk about what you guys have been hearing from young voters.

Speaker 6 John, you've been conducting focus groups and town halls all over the country, some of which you've generously offered to share with us today.

Speaker 6 Let's start with some general views from voters in Columbus, Phoenix, and Atlanta about politics, government, and what it's like to be young in America today.

Speaker 11 Who agrees with that? Like when you turn 25, everything kind of sucks.

Speaker 12 Is that what you said someone?

Speaker 14 Raise your hand.

Speaker 14 Raise your hand.

Speaker 15 Raise your hand if you connect in some way to what Chelsea said.

Speaker 17 Once you turn 25 or so, everything kind of sucks. Raise your hand and keep them up there for a second.

Speaker 13 I turn 25. All right, it was as soon as I got out of high school.

Speaker 12 Almost everybody.

Speaker 17 Kind of building off of that, a lot of the issues that we're facing in this country are systemic and they are primarily based in capitalism. And

Speaker 17 it would be great if we could address gun violence and reproductive rights and the cost of living.

Speaker 17 But when I see these things on the news and I think about it, it's like we need to do a complete overhaul of the system.

Speaker 17 And I know that the government's not willing to do that because they're profiting and we're just saving.

Speaker 13 And at the end of the day, I don't think the government's coming to save anybody i mean we're all self-reliant they're still over here trying to sit here and say oh you need to give money to ukraine give money to everybody else yeah but they have people on the daily who are in the streets dying barely able to survive and still nothing majority of politics are like extreme left battling the extreme right and it's like majority of people fall somewhere in between and don't have to be argued about every single policy that they have absolutely no say

Speaker 6 so i picked those because I thought they were fairly representative of the sentiment I heard from most of these voters. Frustrated, pessimistic, pretty cynical about politics and government.

Speaker 6 Kristen, does that track with what you've seen and heard?

Speaker 5 It does. And I got to say, it makes me so sad that so many of them said, oh, yes, upon turning 25, everything sucks.
Just like side note, actually, when you're 25, everything's amazing.

Speaker 5 When you're 40, you're going to think that everything was amazing when you were 25.

Speaker 6 Exactly what I thought.

Speaker 5 Just a side note there. Don't be so down down in your mid to late 20s.

Speaker 5 But I do think that for young people today, there's this disconnect that I find bizarre and disheartening, which is that on the one hand, objectively, there are lots of things that actually are really great about being a part of humanity at this moment in time.

Speaker 5 It is way better to be a human today than it was 100 years ago, than it was 200 years ago,

Speaker 5 even than it was 30 years ago.

Speaker 5 And so it just, I feel like we are living in a moment where there is a lot of reason why young people should not feel as down on everything as they are.

Speaker 5 And yet we live in, I think, a media ecosystem where everything is fine, nothing to see here, like doesn't get anybody to click on anything.

Speaker 5 But panic and doom and you're being screwed, everything's horrible, it's not your fault, the world is coming after you, like really sells this day in age.

Speaker 5 And I worry that we have a generation that has really fallen captive to this notion that they are victims of something that they can't control and therefore just go blame everybody else.

Speaker 5 Everything's terrible. They're not wrong to think that politics is frequently awful.

Speaker 5 They're not wrong to think that the two parties are not doing a good job of representing an awful lot of voters in America.

Speaker 5 I don't mean to say this to be Pollyanna-ish, but it just, it makes me so frustrated because I think back to the millennial experience, right?

Speaker 5 And maybe we were optimistic in a way that was unwarranted. And so this is maybe the pendulum swinging back the other way.
We were optimistic and then reality came and hit us in the face.

Speaker 5 And for Gen Z, they're going to start off really cynical about everything.

Speaker 5 And there's no way for them to possibly be disappointed because they already think things are as bad as they could possibly be.

Speaker 5 So it does line up with a lot of the data that I'm seeing.

Speaker 5 The one thing that I didn't hear in those clips, but I'm curious, John, if you have heard any of this as well, is that for a lot of young people, they think everything is terrible and they don't trust government or today's current politicians to fix it, but they actually have quite a lot of confidence in their own generation to fix it.

Speaker 5 So it's not like they think everything is going to be terrible forever. They just think it's going to be terrible until their cohort is in charge.

Speaker 9 And they do believe in the power of government to solve those challenges. They distrust government.

Speaker 9 They distrust the current government, but they do think that government and a robust government should have a responsibility to address some of these underlying systemic issues that you heard in those clips.

Speaker 6 John, I was just going to ask you, like, this does seem, when I hear these voters, it seems like a particular challenge for the party that wants people to believe that government can be a force for good and for progress, doesn't it?

Speaker 9 Well, that is, I think, is one of the questions, one of the main questions I have about this entire electorate, which is, as Kristen knows, that young people generally vote when they can see the difference that voting makes, right?

Speaker 9 For themselves, for the communities, for the nation.

Speaker 9 And where they're not able to connect those dots, they are less likely to be open to messages from either candidate and certainly less likely to vote and to participate.

Speaker 9 And the big disconnect I think we see kind of in this cycle is I would argue that no administration has been more youth forward in terms of their agenda as the Biden-Harris administration.

Speaker 9 I think when I ask young people four years ago, why are you going to vote, or now, why did you vote? I hear climate. I hear gun violence a lot.

Speaker 9 I hear economic issues, specifically student loan forgiveness. All of those things, all of these three things have been delivered in historic fashion.
Yet they're not able to see that.

Speaker 9 They're not able to feel that. And therefore, I think skepticism grows.

Speaker 9 It's always been a challenge with younger people because when you're older, I can measure, we all have money in the 401k, in our 401k, or in the stock market. You know,

Speaker 9 older voters know that their prescription drug coverage will be cost. Those are tangible differences that government makes.

Speaker 9 For younger people, it's hard to measure the day-to-day impact of climate or gun violence prevention, those sorts of things.

Speaker 9 And I think that adds to the cynicism and one of the more challenges we have to connect with them.

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Speaker 6 Kristen, I am prone to think and have argued that a lot of the doomerism is a result of the media information environment that this generation is growing up in.

Speaker 6 And, you know, we're millennials, like we went through 9-11 and the Great Recession, right? So we had our share of problems too. You know, and then I hear from Gen Z,

Speaker 6 people in Gen Z who say, well, no, no, we're dealing, it's not just the media that we're watching. We're dealing with these terrible problems.
Don't just blame the media or TikTok or anything else.

Speaker 6 And I do wonder if

Speaker 6 it's really the media environment, would that mean that young people who aren't as tuned into politics, who don't consume as much media, would they be more hopeful?

Speaker 6 Would they be less cynical and pessimistic? Have you guys seen that at all in terms of like the split between very engaged young voters and not so engaged young voters?

Speaker 5 Well, what I think is interesting about this generation, too, is that even

Speaker 5 I'm going to rewind the clock for me back to when I was that age, because I am an old millennial. I am not,

Speaker 5 this is like a real misconception that I find a lot of people have. They think millennials are young.
No, no, we're like ancient at this point.

Speaker 5 But that

Speaker 5 being

Speaker 5 interested in current events is now,

Speaker 5 it is much more the norm. Um, it is much like being tuned in.
I don't, that does not mean watching hours of cable news each week. That's not what I mean.

Speaker 5 But um, I, it, it is no longer just the province of like the kids on the debate team.

Speaker 5 Um, that it is the thing that like the most popular influencers are talking about when something big happens, like the Dobbs decision. Like, the

Speaker 5 influence of politics and discourse around issues is not just siloed off into

Speaker 5 politics brain anymore.

Speaker 5 And I think that

Speaker 5 explains a lot of things. I think it explains a lot of why Gen Zers are driving their boomer bosses crazy by wanting their companies to take stands on political issues.

Speaker 5 That for an older generation, there was a little bit more of a siloing of your political views are over here. Here's what I do for my job.
Here's my family. Here's my church.

Speaker 5 And like those walls are all coming down for a younger generation that the same person they are getting beauty tips from is 30 seconds later telling them your reproductive rights are under assault.

Speaker 5 That those

Speaker 5 worlds have blended in such a way that I actually don't necessarily differentiate like young people who are less tuned in because it's like less tuned into what?

Speaker 5 Somebody who is not paying attention to political podcasts is probably following sports news or beauty influencers.

Speaker 5 And you can get political news that way in a way that you probably weren't 20 or 30 years ago.

Speaker 6 That's fascinating. I hadn't thought about that.
All right. So just about every poll shows that the economy is the top issue for young voters, as it is for all voters.

Speaker 6 This is especially true for concerns about affordability, cost of living.

Speaker 6 I will say, like, the sense of frustration and hopelessness feels more acute with young voters than with some of the other voters I've heard.

Speaker 6 And it came up in every single focus group and town hall that John sent us, Columbus, Phoenix, Irvine, Atlanta, and Detroit. let's listen

Speaker 17 for example I'm paying two

Speaker 33 thousand for a two-bedroom apartment to rent and they that that would cover their mortgage on like a mansion when they were younger I spent four years at school and I've been applying for jobs for the last four months yeah it's been hard finding places a lot of places don't want to email you back yeah and it doesn't give me much hope after I just spent four years in college trying to work hard for this degree yeah and can't even get an email back saying sorry we recommend somebody else.

Speaker 34 Seems often people, older people don't understand how expensive everything has gotten before it is younger.

Speaker 34 I worked really hard to move into like a more middle class lifestyle and then immediately was pushed into a lower class lifestyle from the cost of living.

Speaker 36 A lot of younger people pick up a lot of jobs and lose a lot of jobs very quickly and a lot of older people will feel like that's unprofessional that you may get a job quick, get another job quick but the rate we going and the pay we making is you don't have an option to stay stay where you're not getting what you deserve or what you should get.

Speaker 36 So they don't understand the severity of staying in a place where you're not making enough money to survive.

Speaker 36 Let alone they feel like you should overwork yourself and become a slave to your job so you can make bare minimum.

Speaker 38 I'm not looking to buy a house right now, but it is something I would like to do one day. And it feels like

Speaker 38 that goal just gets further and further away. Like by the time that you get to where you want to be, that benchmark has moved up again.

Speaker 6 Now, you look at economic statistics and see that the unemployment rate is very low for young people. Inflation has come down.

Speaker 6 The data doesn't seem to suggest that young voters are doing worse than other generations.

Speaker 6 So I'm curious, like, have you guys heard similar economic angst from millennials or Gen X when they were this age? Or is something different happening with Gen Z? John?

Speaker 9 This is different. This is different.

Speaker 9 You know, John and Kristen, I spend, man, probably 20 summers, you know, doing similar sorts of town halls and focus groups, you know, from the advent of the Harvard youth poll.

Speaker 9 And like, like I found the

Speaker 9 vibe in the rooms in 2017 different when Trump was in office in terms of the fear and the anxiety and the concern.

Speaker 9 I'm hearing the same thing, but in the economic

Speaker 9 perspective that I had never heard of before.

Speaker 9 And

Speaker 9 in addition to that, though, the other thing I'd be interested in in Kristen's perspective, the other thing which I'd never heard or seen before is there's barely a focus group or a town hall.

Speaker 9 The town halls, I'm talking about 24, 25, 30 people that I can assemble where a member or two had not already been homeless. feel like they're on the verge of homeless, you know, or something similar.

Speaker 9 So it's like the qualitative experience of the anxiety, which I think some context could be helpful, right, from all of us, Juan.

Speaker 9 But there is real, you know, kind of a connection to being without a home at such a young age that I think that we need to listen to and take seriously.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I will say that when I have done these focus groups too, like the one issue that relates to cost of living that comes up more than anything else is housing.

Speaker 6 And I do think you can say that like...

Speaker 6 Economic statistics are what they are, but housing especially, both rent and mortgage and with interest rates where they are, like that is quality. I mean, that is much different than it has been.

Speaker 6 But Kristen, what do you think? What have you been hearing?

Speaker 5 Yeah, I would say that what I am hearing, the Gen Z angst compared to say the millennial angst, they are not twins, but they are cousins.

Speaker 5 That for the millennial angst, it was.

Speaker 5 acute concern about the ability to get a job that really was backed up by the economic data at the time.

Speaker 5 For millennials, that was the, we were the generation where a lot of the, hey, you know what, if you want to set yourself up well in life, what you need to do is set aside 10% into your retirement fund and you need to buy a house and you need to get married and you need to go to college and get a degree.

Speaker 5 And we were the generation that started to go, are you sure about all that? Because the housing market just collapsed and I do have a college degree and I can't really get a good job.

Speaker 5 And so our generation was more the one where all of these things that we were told we were supposed to do, we started to go, I'm not so sure about that.

Speaker 5 Gen Z is just kind of outright rejecting them from the beginning and saying, like, I see through this facade. I'm not interested in participating in this farce.

Speaker 5 And that's where their anxiety is coming out. But so take something like housing.
For the millennial.

Speaker 5 generation, the problem would have been that the economy is so bad and you can't get a job that pays enough to save up enough for the deposit.

Speaker 5 Where for Gen Z, now we're in a world where it's harder than ever to say qualify for a mortgage because they've now changed what it takes to do that. The interest rates are going to be higher.

Speaker 5 So they may have a very different job environment, wage environment.

Speaker 5 But at the same time, if they're having to spend it all on groceries, then it's hard to save it up anyways to be able to pay for that down payment.

Speaker 5 And so it's, they are not identical, but they are similar. I do think that most young people come into adulthood and find that being an adult is very hard, is very challenging.

Speaker 5 And you're suddenly faced with all sorts of things that maybe the school system or life has not prepared you for adequately when you get there and you're right to be pretty ticked off about that i i i i'm not trying to necessarily walk back my earlier dismissal of of young people's angst but but to say that

Speaker 5 if you are 25 and you are frustrated that you cannot afford a home you're not wrong to be frustrated that you cannot afford a home.

Speaker 5 If you are 25 and you have a ton of student loan debt and a degree that you think is not paying off, you're not wrong to be upset about that. But I do also think that it's important to keep in mind

Speaker 5 what is the median experience, right? Like, so college for student loan debt. John, I'd be curious for your take on this.
I hear that as a concern amongst political elites a lot.

Speaker 5 Oh my goodness, is this going to be something huge that drives young voters? But a majority of young people don't necessarily have a four-year degree, or that's not part of their life plan anyways.

Speaker 5 And so I also do wonder how much some of this anxiety is rooted in the attention that gets paid to the voices of those who want to attend expensive colleges or get an apartment in an expensive urban area versus kind of the median Gen Z experience, which may not look like that.

Speaker 6 John, what do you think?

Speaker 9 Yeah, I think that

Speaker 9 I think a couple of things, one of which is the most anxiety I hear is actually from,

Speaker 9 you know, the two clips that stand out to me, one's from Detroit and one was from Columbus, where people, after they graduated college or community college, were expecting, quote, that, you know, working class or middle class lifestyle.

Speaker 9 And they're already saying they're falling behind and may never be able to kind of to catch up. And

Speaker 9 I think a lot of it is just like the cost of

Speaker 9 even rental income, right? So I think a lot of it isn't, I think it is that kind of lived experience. And the one word that kind of connects all this for me is stability.

Speaker 9 Younger people are looking for some place where they can find some stability. There is no stability in the political system today.
There is no stability when we look at where the world is right now.

Speaker 9 And there's very little stability in their own home or in their neighborhood.

Speaker 9 And that is, I think those three combinations, those three things in combination is what's really driving a lot of anxiety and angst. And I can't, and

Speaker 9 I want to hear what Kristen's perspective is on this, but I would throw out like, hey, you know,

Speaker 9 do you think the stock market, when the last time the stock market had a record? You know, yesterday.

Speaker 9 You know, I can't convince someone that their life is getting better, even though the stock market is getting better, or even the unemployment rate.

Speaker 9 It's how they feeling it and perceiving it at this moment in this very, you know, young part of their overall, hopefully adult experience.

Speaker 5 So I want to pick up on what you said about stability, because in general, I think that this axis of chaos versus stability is going to be totally decisive in this election.

Speaker 5 I think that voters overall are craving stability in what they feel has been a very chaotic last eight to 10 years of American life.

Speaker 5 At the same time, I struggle with how to square that with some of the young people whose voices we just heard in those clips that you played, where they're saying, I want to tear down the system.

Speaker 5 Like that's, and to like bring it back to the 2024 election, that's exactly the kind of rhetoric you would hear from someone who was a low engagement voter who decided to turn out in 2016 for Donald Trump and who I think in 2024 is susceptible to turning out for Donald Trump because they still want that wrecking ball style approach.

Speaker 5 And maybe they're RFK Junior Curious or what have you, but I think what's so interesting about young voters is that on the one hand, I agree that they would like some ability to, you know, feel like they have financial security, to feel like they have housing security and those sorts of things.

Speaker 5 But aren't they also the generation the most likely to say, I want to blow things up?

Speaker 6 Yeah, well, I think it's fascinating that we are talking about sort of the two candidates and the two parties, and we're talking about it on the axis of chaos versus stability, which I tend to agree with, or, you know, tear it all down or keep the system we have.

Speaker 6 And it does seem like

Speaker 6 the traditional maybe pre-Trump Republican message that government should, you know, get out of the way would not necessarily be attractive to these voters.

Speaker 6 But it also seems like they're skeptical that Democrats will be able to actually deliver on their promises to help make life more affordable.

Speaker 6 So, sort of, where does that leave both parties in terms of, like, do you guys think there are economic messages that would resonate with young people that aren't just, I'm going to tear it down, I'm not going to tear it down, I'm going to keep things the way they are, I'm going to change things?

Speaker 6 Like, do they have any sense of sort of like an economic message that's appealing to them? John?

Speaker 9 Yeah, the

Speaker 9 first time I conducted a survey many years ago when I was asking questions about capitalism, socialism, and other things, when I found a majority essentially rejected capitalism.

Speaker 9 And I learned very quickly through follow-up focus groups that it wasn't like a rejection of the system itself. It was essentially a rejection of how it was being practiced, right?

Speaker 9 And then in fact, when I share the definition in subsequent surveys, support for capitalism went up.

Speaker 9 What I have continued to hear is that when I challenge young people to tell me what's better, they would describe to me a combination of a Teddy Roosevelt and an FDR, kind of a New Deal and a square deal, something that provided some basic infrastructure,

Speaker 9 social infrastructure one, but also something that was big enough to like to

Speaker 9 break up monopolies and those sorts of things,

Speaker 9 give the regular person kind of an opportunity. So I think it's a more modern version of capitalism is what younger people are asking for.

Speaker 9 But I always love spending time with Kristen because I learned so many things. So when I think about the chaos versus stability it's really kind of

Speaker 9 how many different axes are there right are we talking economics because that tends to favor trump are we talking kind of political and democratic that would tend to favor biden i would argue right so it's just not chaos versus stability is really kind of what other axes are um that we're also looking at the second axes so fascinating Kristen, what do you think?

Speaker 6 Because it's interesting. The Republican Party's in a spot right now where policy-wise, it seems still, still, at least Republicans in Congress are still wooded to like a tax cut deregulation agenda.

Speaker 6 And then there's the Trump style of politics, which seems to be like,

Speaker 6 you know, economic populism as a style more than actual policies. But like,

Speaker 6 how do you see that?

Speaker 5 I think that a big part of the reason why you have seen more young people at least express an openness to someone like Donald Trump compared to, say, Mitt Romney 12 years ago, is in part that economic populist thread.

Speaker 5 Because I think for a lot of young people, their core concern with the financial, with our economic system, is a sense of fairness, which is not to say that they think that fairness means everybody gives 100% to the state and the state allocates it accordingly.

Speaker 5 Like

Speaker 5 actual

Speaker 5 centrally planned economy is not necessarily what they're thinking. So I agree with John on that.

Speaker 5 A lot of young people who say they want to tear down the capitalist system, when you ask them to describe their ideal system, it is not,

Speaker 5 it is not the Soviet Union. It is like Scandinavia.

Speaker 5 At the same time, I think that for Republicans, you know, there was a moment when kind of entrepreneurship and those sorts of things, I thought there was a way for that to be a message to young people in part because of, you know, you heard some of those respondents in the focus groups talking about their side jobs or, you know, they're the ones that have kind of struck out on their own.

Speaker 5 I had thought for a while that that entrepreneurship message would have resonance, but I have since come to think it has some limitations, in part for the same thing that I said about the college degrees and the housing.

Speaker 5 Like to what extent is entrepreneurship actually a dream of a lot of young people versus a dream of a small number of very vocal young people who maybe take up disproportionate space in our minds?

Speaker 5 And so for Republicans right now, I think the idea that the government is bad at allocating resources, the idea that the government is bad at making decisions about things

Speaker 5 is still resonant.

Speaker 5 I think you're seeing some interesting pushback among certain segments of young people on topics like crypto, for instance, where they tend to like it more and they feel like the government's going to screw it up if government gets more involved.

Speaker 5 That's just one little piece of where I do still think there is a, I don't want the government controlling everything strain among this generation, that that's not the same as, gee, I want to lower corporate tax rates so that we can be competitive with the rest of the world.

Speaker 5 Like that's not, those are not the same message.

Speaker 6 So we mentioned this briefly, but one economic issue that keeps coming up is student debt, but also just the financial value of a college education more broadly.

Speaker 6 And here's what some of these voters said about that.

Speaker 11 College was my biggest regret, honestly.

Speaker 12 Oh, really?

Speaker 17 I'm in debt for it, and I weren't even working what I went to college for.

Speaker 40 You know, you graduated with a college degree. You can't afford a house, a car, two kids, you know, but now people with like a bachelor, you know, they can no longer do that.

Speaker 40 Or, you know, then you have to reach like the next step, like master's degree.

Speaker 14 No, everyone gets a master's degree. So like the next one would be like, so I feel like just like not compensate anymore.

Speaker 17 That's debt, one form or another, they're living with everybody.

Speaker 16 Student debt. Student debt?

Speaker 17 Yeah. How many else said, how many people here have student debt?

Speaker 6 So everyone said they, or I think most people in that group said they had student debt.

Speaker 6 You know, as Kristen mentioned, John, like the polling among all voters on student debt relief is mixed,

Speaker 6 though young voters tend to be more supportive.

Speaker 6 Is anyone, by the way, giving President Biden credit for any of the student debt that he has forgiven on his own in any of your focus groups? Or is that just no one knows about that?

Speaker 9 Very few. So most of those focused groups, by the way, are younger people and we're really wanting to see whether they would vote or not.

Speaker 9 Okay, so that was like the, that was essentially the criteria for the, for the demographics that we selected for. It's not, and very few.

Speaker 9 You know, there are some people who had a family member who relieved some student debt.

Speaker 9 Having said that, when I talk to people in their 30s and their 40s, for example, who have had some student debt relieved,

Speaker 9 they represent some of the more emotional experiences I've ever had conducting research like this, you know, in several decades, right?

Speaker 9 When you can hear, you know, from a 45 or 50 year old African-American woman who, for the first time in her family's history, can now afford a house. because of the debt relief, right?

Speaker 9 Or doesn't have to make a choice between, you know, between saving for a child's education versus the rent, et cetera.

Speaker 9 So there are incredible numbers of very moving stories about the importance, point, and role of this policy. The fact is, we have $150 billion plus relieved.

Speaker 9 That's almost 20%, I think, of the Pentagon budget. And very few young people appreciate that.
Very few young people appreciate the fact that Joe Biden promised it in 2020.

Speaker 9 And despite the fact that what the Supreme Court did, it has been delivered to soon-to-be, I think, 10 million young people.

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Speaker 6 Well, Kristen, you mentioned this, but one thing I kept hearing in these focus groups is these young people questioning the value of a college education.

Speaker 6 And so, yes, they are upset and burdened by student debt, but they're also just like, why did I do this?

Speaker 6 Like, I did not get a job that can keep me financially stable, even though I paid all this money for college.

Speaker 6 And it does seem somewhat seismic to me that like questioning the very value of a college education and that it can get you ahead in life

Speaker 6 is sort of characteristic of people's opinions these days. And I feel like it hasn't been like that in the past.

Speaker 5 Well, and I think it is rooted in the idea that

Speaker 5 What is the purpose of getting a four-year degree, right? And maybe, and how has that question changed over the last 20, 30, 40 years?

Speaker 5 Why did our parents or grandparents' generation think going and getting a bachelor's degree was important?

Speaker 5 That I think especially after the Great Recession, there was this idea that the job market is terrible for young people.

Speaker 5 In order to get ahead, you have got to be extra credentialed in order to set yourself apart.

Speaker 5 And so you saw this real emphasis, and I think not misguided to say, hey, we should make sure that every student is on track to where if they want to choose to get a college degree, they've been prepared by the K-12 system to do so.

Speaker 5 But the problem is, one, you have a K-12 system that hasn't really prepared a lot of them to do so.

Speaker 5 So they get to college and completing in four years is going to be a challenge because they've been so let down by the system that got them there.

Speaker 5 Then they get to college and there's, what is the incentive of the college? Is the incentive of the college to get them out in four years and send them on their merry way?

Speaker 5 Like, and I think we've just had this misalignment of incentives that has led to a generation saying, hey, I came and I got this degree thinking it was going to do X, Y, and Z.

Speaker 5 And it's not clear to me that it's yielding that. So what was this all for?

Speaker 5 And, you know, if you talk to folks that work at colleges and universities, they'll tell you, well, the value of the degree is not just the dollars and cents that you are getting in your paycheck.

Speaker 5 It's that you find yourself. It's that you grow intellectually.
It is in all of those things. And that may all be true, but gosh, it costs an awful lot of money to become an adult and find yourself.

Speaker 5 And plenty of people become an adult and find themselves and don't wind up in severe debt doing so. And so I think this is a real crisis moment for the higher education world where

Speaker 5 Because the price of their product has gone up so much, but the return on that investment feels so opaque to people,

Speaker 5 that I think this is a crisis moment for the higher education world.

Speaker 6 Yeah, no, it certainly seems like that. And the degree doesn't matter as much if you then can't afford rent or mortgage after you leave college and get a job, right?

Speaker 6 So even though economic concerns top the list for young people, this is a group of voters who feel very strongly about what they see as an attack on their rights and freedoms.

Speaker 6 Here's some young people from Atlanta talking about that.

Speaker 43 What kinds of rights do you think are at risk right now in this country?

Speaker 16 Freedom of speech.

Speaker 43 Freedom of speech. Yeah.
Do you guys agree with that? I would vehemently agree with that. We vehemently agree with that.
Autonomy.

Speaker 43 Okay. I know we talked about it earlier.
I don't know if this is a right, but like you said earlier, your generation, like got easier access to college. Yeah.
You know? Yeah.

Speaker 43 Right to an education if you work for them. Right.

Speaker 9 Right?

Speaker 43 Is that a right that you feel like is like under attack, is accessible?

Speaker 43 Yeah. I mean, you could definitely say reproductive rights because a girl can't get an abortion now.
Right. In some states in Georgia.
Under attack in a lot of states.

Speaker 43 Yeah, I think that's crazy. And I'm a Republican, and I think that it's crazy.

Speaker 41 I have endometriosis and a lot of health issues concerning my reproductive system and some of the medications that I have to be on and different things like that and the possibility of having a risky pregnancy and not being able to get the health care I needed

Speaker 41 is a big right that I feel like I've lost.

Speaker 16 Yeah, I would say speech really comes to mind, freedom of speech.

Speaker 35 You know, I am Muslim, so it's, you know, seeing kind of all these hates on the Israel, Palestine, or is it I mean, it hits home in some level. So, I mean, just kind of seeing how

Speaker 16 the police can arrest so many people, you know, just for protesting, seeing how corporations and people can take action.

Speaker 6 So, John polls show that young voters are overwhelmingly pro-choice

Speaker 6 and list abortion as one of their top issues.

Speaker 6 The open question is to what extent the issue will determine their vote and whether they believe Biden will be able to protect protect abortion access or even that Trump will further restrict abortion access.

Speaker 6 What are you hearing?

Speaker 9 So, I think a couple of things on this.

Speaker 9 One of which is I think there's a large number of voters, younger voters, who don't necessarily understand or can't really see the difference in their lives based upon who the president is in four years, even on these issues, number one, right?

Speaker 9 So, that's a very, very kind of important thing to kind of, I think, appreciate that often the folks like ourselves who spend a lot of time thinking, talking about these issues, don't always hear.

Speaker 9 The issue of rights, I wasn't looking for rights, right? I'm asking people, you know, what keeps people up at night, right? What are they concerned about?

Speaker 9 And I think, and this is my sense is how the Biden campaign, you know, kind of rolled out

Speaker 9 its announcement is around there's a series of rights. And I think the definition of what is a basic right to Gen Z is different than the way in which my generation, Gen X, thought of it, right?

Speaker 9 The right to breathe clean air and drink clean water, the right to a K through 12 education without being concerned about a shooter coming in. That's a right.
The right to access health care.

Speaker 9 So I think this generation, obviously, reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, but also the right to feel comfortable sharing your views, you know, in a public or a private spot.

Speaker 9 So I think this idea of rights is something that is resonant, that can connect a lot of the four or five issues that we see in the top of these polls quite a bit.

Speaker 9 And the degree to which I think the Biden campaign can do that, I think that will be helpful for his success to kind of motivate some people to talk about the stability versus the chaos that Kristen talked about earlier.

Speaker 6 Kristen, Republicans are clearly worried about the political consequences of Dobbs.

Speaker 6 I know like Kellyanne Conway and some others have advised Trump to stick to a message where he talks about letting the states decide

Speaker 6 and then also, you know, attacking Democrats for not favoring any restrictions. Do you think that can work with young voters? And how much do you see this as a motivating issue for young voters?

Speaker 5 So what fascinates me about the polling around this is the way that it differs so greatly from the way it looked 10 years ago, especially for young people.

Speaker 5 When I was writing my book on millennials and their political views, I actually dedicated a couple of pages to the fact that when I was looking at the way millennials differed from Gen Xers and boomers on issues, on things like LGBT rights, there were huge generational divides.

Speaker 5 But actually, on the issue of abortion, as recently as a decade ago, there really wasn't a huge difference. This idea that there were big generation or even gender divides was a little bit overblown.

Speaker 5 It is not overblown today. There are huge differences on these issues.
And for young women in particular, it is a much bigger deal. And part of that is because of the connection.

Speaker 5 And I think some pro-life folks would have said, oh, this is unfair.

Speaker 5 But now we've seen in enough states courts or legislatures taking action that have led to the entanglement of an issue like abortion with things like fertility care, with things like birth control.

Speaker 5 This was a real panic in the wake of the Supreme Court's hobby lobby decision. Oh, my goodness, is this going to become a political hot button?

Speaker 5 And it kind of subsided, like it flared up and then it sort of went out of the discourse. It is back in the discourse in a big way.

Speaker 5 And so I think it's in a way that it was not a political threat to Republicans 10 years ago, it is a political threat now.

Speaker 5 And that's because even if it's not someone's top issue, even if when you ask them that question and you say, you got to pick one, what's your top issue? They say, I can't afford my groceries.

Speaker 5 That comes to the top of the list, economy, cost of living. But that doesn't mean that abortion's not there as something at a sort of gut level of...

Speaker 5 I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who's on the other side of that issue.

Speaker 5 And I also think that the pro-life community was caught very flat-footed by the Dobbs decision.

Speaker 5 You know, I would hear from pro-life folks over the years that they attributed that lack of a generation divide on the issue to the fact that, you know, you have sonogram technology these days that allows you to see at a very early stage of pregnancy, look, there's that little flicker.

Speaker 5 And they sort of thought that that in and of itself would kind of win the public opinion battle for them.

Speaker 5 And as we see in the wake of the Dobbs decision, that has not been the case.

Speaker 5 The other issue, though, that I wanted to touch on was when you played that clip, it was fascinating to hear from the young man who said, I'm Muslim and I am concerned about freedom of speech on campus.

Speaker 6 I was literally just about to ask you that because it came from both sides of the political spectrum, the concern about the attack on free speech or what they perceived as an attack on free speech.

Speaker 5 So that has been a very quick kind of shift because I have followed the polling around young people's perceptions of free speech on campus.

Speaker 5 And really up until the last year, it has been primarily a kind of conservative concern.

Speaker 5 And it's gotten kind of dismissed as, well, this is just conservatives being mad that they're not allowed to be outrageous on campus. And I don't really care about their freedom of speech.

Speaker 5 And now suddenly that it is affecting different groups of students, not just, you know, the campus turning point USA chapter, suddenly you are seeing more and more young people beginning to go, wait a minute, I don't know if I like this idea that because I hold a certain opinion, I'm going to be quote unquote canceled.

Speaker 5 Or I know that term has been abused, but it's fascinating to me the way that this is now a broader concern beyond just the right.

Speaker 6 John, do you hear that come up a lot? Because I've sort of wondered this too.

Speaker 6 It becomes, and it's not just like a, you know, conservative activists and liberal activists or people on the right and people on the left.

Speaker 6 You also hear it from people who are apolitical or who aren't super politically engaged, just this feeling that everyone's getting in trouble all the time and they're like afraid to even talk about it and bring it up.

Speaker 6 And it feels like it reached its peak in like 2017, 2018 2019 and now it's sort of maybe subsided a little bit but i don't know what are you hearing yeah i hear some of that i hear some of that i still think it's more prominent you know in the conservative and the republican groups but um

Speaker 9 i do i do think that that is something that it also that is

Speaker 9 stifling people from sharing their views and therefore makes them less confident in their choices and thinking through

Speaker 9 who they are from a political lens and their values, et cetera, because they're afraid to even ask questions. I think that is a very significant factor

Speaker 9 in terms of driving or not driving support for people voting or not, because

Speaker 9 we don't have an environment where people are comfortable asking questions or sharing their opinions because they'll be judged. Young potential progressives feel that.

Speaker 9 Young potential conservatives feel that as well.

Speaker 9 And I think that speaks to like just a lot of work we need to do around civics and civic education with these young people because it's just not healthy for anybody.

Speaker 6 So there's that voter mentioned, the campus protests. And of course, the issue related to young voters that's probably gotten the most attention

Speaker 6 in the media, certainly on social media, is the war in Gaza.

Speaker 6 It was brought up in John's focus groups. But I thought it was notable that we also heard a different angle on why young people are upset about U.S.
involvement in foreign conflicts. Let's listen.

Speaker 42 I want to stop the genocide. I want to stop funding the wars.

Speaker 42 I can't, in good spirit, being a Muslim woman,

Speaker 42 continue to vote Democrat each year like I have on local and on a presidential level

Speaker 42 when I know that my taxpayers' money is funding bullets for children.

Speaker 34 Can I ask a follow-up?

Speaker 11 Do you feel like by not going for Biden, by voting for Trump or someone else,

Speaker 14 that will

Speaker 11 provide

Speaker 34 more peace or some assistance and some dignity and respect for the Palestinian cause.

Speaker 42 I think it's my responsibility to vote for that.

Speaker 42 Voting for Biden, I mean, we're just picking names. I voted for Biden last year because it was a lesser evil.

Speaker 42 But now,

Speaker 42 I can't in good faith vote for Biden for the same reason that he is evil.

Speaker 17 Thank you.

Speaker 42 Fixing the potholes, mental health programs in the United States, that's a priority for us. It affects our everyday.
The price of groceries going up, that affects our everyday.

Speaker 42 What's happening in XYZ country far away,

Speaker 42 which, again, we're in debt. So why are we bailing out other people's debt?

Speaker 6 So two different issues there, but I want to start with Gaza.

Speaker 6 So polls consistently show that most young people have become critical of Israel's response to October 7th and tend to sympathize with the plight of the Palestinians.

Speaker 6 On the other hand, Gaza tends to rank much lower on the list of issues that will determine their vote. John,

Speaker 6 does that track with what you're seeing?

Speaker 9 Yeah, I've asked the question dozens of ways and dozens of focus groups and surveys, and that's essentially it.

Speaker 9 The only thing I'd add slightly to that, John, is that in the Harvard polling, younger people sympathize roughly equally with both the Palestinian civilians and the Israeli civilians, right?

Speaker 9 It's the governments where we see the divide, but generally,

Speaker 9 generally, yes.

Speaker 6 Yeah. Kristen, I'm interested in your thoughts on the opposition to U.S.
financial support for foreign conflicts like Gaza. We heard someone mention Ukraine in an earlier clip.

Speaker 6 And of course, this is a position the Republican Party has moved towards under Trump that's quite different than the GOP you grew up with.

Speaker 6 Do you think that's where young people of both parties are headed? Or is there an isolationist streak now among young people?

Speaker 5 Absolutely. So there is no bigger issue set that divides younger Republicans from older Republicans than

Speaker 5 foreign policy, which surprises me sometimes, but the data is very stark. And it's not just Ukraine.

Speaker 5 It is really that for an older set of Republicans, and I think they share this with older Democrats as well to an extent. There is a view that America can be a force for good in this world.

Speaker 5 There is a, maybe it's like a cold echoes of the Cold War mentality, but that like when the, when when America is the world's leader, the world is better off.

Speaker 5 And that is not something that young people believe, no matter where they're at on the political spectrum, right or left.

Speaker 5 So for those on the left, it is a belief that America is fundamentally flawed in X, Y, and Z way. And how dare we tell the rest of the world how to behave when we have all these problems at home.

Speaker 5 For young folks on the right, it's not necessarily a view that America is bad, but rather a view that it's not our problem. We, you know, let's focus in at home home exactly kind of what you heard.

Speaker 5 And so, oddly enough, I mean, eight years ago when Republicans nominated Donald Trump, I thought you could not have created someone in a lab who was going to be more off-putting to young voters to turn them away from the GOP than Donald Trump.

Speaker 5 But I would say that foreign policy is actually the one issue area that is a big exception to that.

Speaker 5 And that this is where, even though I think a lot of the sort of Republican foreign policy establishment believes, and I would say I think rightly, that the world actually is safer and more stable when America is strong and is in a leadership role and is working with our allies rather than just looking inward.

Speaker 5 But for most young people, they really don't think. They don't think that America is that great to begin with.

Speaker 5 And therefore, they don't think that American projection of power around the world does anything but harm.

Speaker 6 And again, and the Democratic establishment agrees with a lot of the Republican establishment on that.

Speaker 6 And younger Democratic Democratic voters seem to agree a little bit more with

Speaker 6 younger Republican voters that this is not our business and we should and America's, or at least American presence around the world is a negative, right? It's bad.

Speaker 6 John, is that what you're hearing with some young Democratic voters too?

Speaker 9 Yeah, very much so. And,

Speaker 9 you know, the context of that, that was...

Speaker 9 a middle of a town hall meeting with 25 people uh with a uh with a young muslim woman from from dearborn who's kind of shared that perspective um i think she's reflective of her generation on the issue of

Speaker 9 it's, you know, we need to stop funding, you know, other people's wars, et cetera, on one hand.

Speaker 9 I'm not sure that she's as reflective of her generation.

Speaker 9 I know she's not in terms of the connection directly to Biden and her being less likely to vote Democrat, because we have not seen that correlation.

Speaker 9 I think that's worth noting. The other thing is, every time I've been in Detroit having these very challenging conversations, the entry point into Israel and Gaza is through foreign aid, right?

Speaker 9 That is viewed as a value and not necessarily a place where people may or may not claim someone is anti-Semitic because they carry those values, you know, to other places around the world.

Speaker 6 Okay, let's end by talking about views of the candidates themselves. Spoiler alert, not a lot of Biden or Trump fans among these folks, which does reflect most of the polling.

Speaker 6 But I thought it'd be interesting to hear how they're thinking through the choice, starting with an Atlanta voter who talked about why he used to like Trump.

Speaker 43 I was like 18 years old,

Speaker 43 you know, going, starting off college, and you know, like he's funny and he tells it like it is. And, you know, he doesn't give a fuck, you know, if like he offends somebody.

Speaker 43 And, you know, that was very appealing to my, you know, 18-year-old sensibility.

Speaker 43 I would say Trump, and I think it's very easy for me being 22 for it to be skewed because I was a lot younger when Trump was in office. So I didn't really pay attention attention to it.

Speaker 43 I wasn't paying bills the same way I am now.

Speaker 43 And I also think that Biden's a little bit,

Speaker 43 like, there's lasting effects from COVID that really, you can't really blame on him that we're starting to feel right now, like inflation being one of them.

Speaker 43 I don't think he's definitely not helping it, but there was bound to be some level of inflation.

Speaker 43 But I mean, when I think about it,

Speaker 43 there was no foreign tension. There was.

Speaker 44 But as far as they were saying about Biden being bad, I kind of agree with that.

Speaker 18 But at the same time i feel like if that's if your choice is biden or a racist you kind of go with biden i think we all need to show up to vote and everything because there's so many like boomer generation politicians and plays that are literally insane like they should not be there anymore they they don't know what's going on they're not in tune with their people so we need to come together to make sure that there's people there that know what's going on and can speak up for what we need.

Speaker 6 So we hear a lot of younger voters talking about the lesser of two evils.

Speaker 6 It may sound frustrating or depressing to some people, but I don't know, John, could ultimately be an effective argument if you're trying to get someone to vote for Biden.

Speaker 9 Well, it's the old comparative. There needs to be a comparative, right? You know, Trump tried this.
Biden did that. Trump believes, you know,

Speaker 9 Trump believes in restricting abortion on a national basis. Biden is working to kind of create a national law to support women's reproductive rights, et cetera.

Speaker 9 So there has to be that sort of comparative.

Speaker 9 I think, John and Kristen, one of the more interesting focus groups I've done in a long time was with those first clips of those young men in Atlanta, right?

Speaker 9 And the idea of that first-time voter, their first reaction to Trump when they were in their early high school years, they view him as an anti-hero. And that is worth noting, right?

Speaker 9 Their values aren't necessarily aligned, but that first experience is a different experience than the young voter four years ago, you know, who kind of came of age and saw, you know, the policy and

Speaker 9 the comments, really, Charlottesville and other things.

Speaker 9 So that's a really important perspective in terms of how younger people's experience in this cycle is different than younger people's experience in the last cycle.

Speaker 9 And it goes just as well for Biden, by the way.

Speaker 6 Kristen, there's been some data that suggests a growing gender divide among young voters, with Trump appealing to more young men.

Speaker 6 Do you think his support among this cohort has grown over the last eight years? What do you think is going on there?

Speaker 5 So I think to the extent that you had somebody who at 18 took the view of Trump, like the young man in this focus group, right? That they liked something about his sort of

Speaker 5 lawless, I don't care kind of vibe, and that was appealing to them.

Speaker 5 I've been a strong believer that part of the reason why Donald Trump lost in 2020, and there are a million things you could put on this list, but one of them is in 2016, he retained this aura of celebrity around him.

Speaker 5 He's the guy who's good at economics. He's Donald Trump who you see on TV.
And the reality of President Donald Trump was not quite that.

Speaker 5 But now we've got another four years that we've been on where, you know, Donald Trump sort of backed away from being in the news that much. He's literally been on trial for felony charges.

Speaker 5 And most Americans were probably not that tuned in until maybe they heard about the verdict from, you know, someone who heard from someone.

Speaker 5 And so I still think that at this moment, and this will change by the time we get to November, that Trump has kind of reverted back in a lot of voters' minds to celebrity Trump.

Speaker 5 And you see him cultivating this, right? He shows up at UFC events.

Speaker 5 Like that's the, that's what he's leaning back into, this kind of, I am, you know, masculine, I don't care, I'm vibrant, I'm vigorous. He's trying to set up a contrast with Biden in doing so.

Speaker 5 But can that sustain itself over however many months we have until November with lots of advertising reminding voters of what Trump was like as president? That's where I'm not so sure.

Speaker 6 Well, John, that brings up like the challenge of reaching younger voters in an information environment where they're either not paying attention to political news or getting their news from social platforms like TikTok, or as Kristen was saying earlier, getting some political information from influencers who aren't necessarily like explicitly political.

Speaker 6 How has that changed the strategies necessary to communicate with and persuade these voters?

Speaker 6 Because otherwise it becomes sort of a vibes thing that Kristen was just mentioning, where it's like, oh, Trump seems cool and maybe it wasn't that bad.

Speaker 6 And he's showing up at UFC and Biden seems really old. And I'm seeing all these videos of him, you know, look at looking frozen and whatever else.
Like,

Speaker 6 what are those strategies like?

Speaker 9 Well, you need to play in that space.

Speaker 9 You need to play in the vibes playground, right? That's got, that's where young people get their information. You know, it's quite clear.
You know, and that starts, I think, with

Speaker 9 really having sophisticated strategies around two channels, around YouTube and TikTok from those two platforms. And just not in, you know, 30 seconds, 60 seconds, 90 seconds.

Speaker 9 It could be in 10, 15 minute chunks of video on YouTube, which young people actually enjoy that seemingly long form of content if they're able to learn something, because that is where information

Speaker 9 is,

Speaker 9 is, is, that's like the central place in terms of where information is moving. From there, it goes to, you know, Reddit and Discord and Twitch and the other gaming platforms.

Speaker 9 But these, these efforts, and it can't be directly from the campaign. They are the least, you know,

Speaker 9 they're the least trusted distributors of this tour content. So what has to happen, I believe, is that

Speaker 9 like Trump has been doing in some way, is tapping kind of influencers and newer ideas outside of the traditional political ecosystem, you know, see them on YouTube, see them on the ad-free, on the on the on the streaming platforms,

Speaker 9 and begin to kind of reestablish and make some sort of connections on the issues that matter so that the younger person who is at the 4th of July picnic or moving into their dorm, when they have that moment when another member of their group is questioning what it it all means or questioning government or questioning the difference, that information is available to be communicated from

Speaker 9 a peer-to-peer, right? There needs to be some organization kind of top-down, seeding information through TikTok

Speaker 9 and YouTube, in my belief, and then which gives permission to other people to say, you know what, may not be popular. I'm standing up for Biden because of this.

Speaker 6 Kristen, last question.

Speaker 6 For a younger voter who is open to the possibility of a second Trump term, isn't sold yet, what do you think the most effective argument is that might make them pause

Speaker 6 and decide that maybe they don't want to pull that lever for Trump?

Speaker 5 So I think the notion that Donald Trump wants to be,

Speaker 5 you know, he says, I want to be transformative. I want to be this wrecking ball.
But the idea that he does not want to be transformative in a forward-looking direction, but back.

Speaker 5 I mean, his message has always been: make America great again. It harkens back to a past.

Speaker 5 And I know that this is the summer of nostalgia and that we're in this moment where Jen's ears are like pulling up videos from when like people our age were graduating from high school.

Speaker 5 And they're like, oh, I missed that kind of an experience. Why don't we have this? Like, I understand that there is some nostalgia for 1999 that is completely justified.

Speaker 5 That's not what Donald Trump is talking about. He's not talking about going back to 1999.

Speaker 5 And I think it is the fact that Trump has set himself up to say, yes, I want to blow things up, but the way I want to move them is to hit the rewind button and go back and reclaim something that we feel like has been lost.

Speaker 5 There are a lot of things in America's past that are completely the opposite of what Gen Z wants for their future.

Speaker 5 And so I think if I was advising Democrats on how to best divorce Trump from the young voters who are curious about him, it would be that.

Speaker 5 It wouldn't be trying to say Trump is just as old as Biden or any of that stuff. It would be the

Speaker 5 that Trump does want to blow things up, that he does want to be vigorous and shake up the system. And he's in a second term, he's not going to be mild-mannered about it.

Speaker 5 He has said as much himself, but the direction that he wants to take things is the opposite direction of what you're looking for.

Speaker 6 And John, say you have a young Biden 2020 voter in your life who's not sure they want to vote for him again. You have a few minutes to persuade this person to get out and vote for Biden.

Speaker 6 What do you say?

Speaker 9 I'd say, why did he vote for him in 2020? And they'll say something to the effect of, I wanted progress on student debt, on gun violence, on climate.

Speaker 9 And then I would remind them that despite in many ways significant odds of Republicans fighting against in Supreme Court, he's accomplished those things.

Speaker 9 He's not only promised those things, he listened to young people, but he delivered in ways that no other president in many decades has delivered for them. And that those things are at risk.

Speaker 9 They may not be where they need to be at this moment, but they're at risk if he votes in some other way.

Speaker 6 John and Kristen, thank you so much for joining the wilderness. This was a fascinating conversation.
I really appreciate your time.

Speaker 5 Thanks for having us.

Speaker 9 Thank you.

Speaker 6 I found John's focus groups bleaker than most, but also enlightening, especially after my conversation with him and Kristen.

Speaker 6 These are two people with ties to the Democratic establishment and the pre-Trump Republican establishment.

Speaker 6 But because they've both spent so much time talking to younger voters, it's given both of them unique insight into where the future of American politics may be headed.

Speaker 6 And it's a place that's probably unrecognizable to the establishment of either party. Younger voters simply don't have the same faith in institutions that older voters do.

Speaker 6 Some of that has to do with the fact that they don't see themselves represented in those institutions.

Speaker 6 Some of it has to do with the fact that they feel let down by those institutions at a time when they don't feel secure about their finances, their rights, or their safety.

Speaker 6 some of it has to do with where and how they're getting the news and information that shapes their worldviews.

Speaker 6 This presents an especially difficult challenge to the one party that's currently fighting to defend our democratic institutions from the threat of authoritarianism.

Speaker 6 But the challenge isn't insurmountable.

Speaker 6 We've already seen young people turn out in record numbers in 2018 and 2020 and 2022.

Speaker 6 We've seen them march and protest and organize with a sense of urgency and intensity intensity that this moment demands.

Speaker 6 And as John and Kristen both mentioned, even if Gen Z doesn't have much faith in the older people who are currently in charge, they have a lot of confidence in their own ability to make things happen.

Speaker 6 Just look at Anderson Clayton.

Speaker 8 So right now in the state, we've got organizers on the ground. They are knocking doors across every county in North Carolina on every weekend.

Speaker 8 The traditional ways of voter contact are not always going to be the most effective to reach young voters.

Speaker 8 And I think that where we have to really chase the margins and chase young people is showing up where they are. So that means on college campuses, that means at your place of work.

Speaker 8 I was in a rural county out this past weekend and one of the guys that's running for county commissioner out there looked at me and he goes, where do, where are young voters at in this county, Anderson?

Speaker 8 And I said, do you have a Lowe's, a Walmart, a fast food restaurant anywhere in this county?

Speaker 8 Yes, absolutely, because the majority of those entities are actually the number one employer in those counties right sometimes.

Speaker 8 Walmart employs up to 300 people in any rural community that you live in right now. And so looking at that and saying like, you know, where's the shift change?

Speaker 8 Like on the shift change, like are you out there with the clipboard asking those folks they registered to vote?

Speaker 6 This is the kind of energy and creativity we need right now. We can't just sit around and worry and wait for better things to happen.
Better polls, better news cycles, better campaigns.

Speaker 6 We've got to go make it happen ourselves. We've got to go do the work like everything depends on us because it does.

Speaker 8 I think about it being in the South right now and I'm like voting this year is about survival to us in so many ways. 55% of Black Americans live in the South right now.

Speaker 8 And so I'm coming from a region that has felt overlooked and honestly ignored by a lot of the political apparatus in the entire country for a long period of time.

Speaker 8 And I need people to wake the fuck up this year that you're not just voting for yourself.

Speaker 8 You are voting for every other person in this country, in this state that is marginalized and that does not have what they need right now. And it's not about Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

Speaker 8 It is about the future of the world that you want to live in. If you don't want to vote this year to protect the people around you,

Speaker 8 what do you want to vote for? Like genuinely. And that's something that I think you've got to sit with it and decide it for yourselves.

Speaker 8 And there may still be people after that that look at me and say, Anderson, it ain't worth it to me. And I'm like,

Speaker 8 but that's on us. Like, that is humanity.
And I'm like, I know that we're better than that. We're better than that as people.
I know we have to be. Like, we have to be this year.

Speaker 6 We know things aren't great.

Speaker 6 We know our options aren't perfect. And neither are we.
But we can make things better.

Speaker 6 We can be better. And right now, we have to be.

Speaker 6 We'll see you next time on the wilderness.

Speaker 6 The Wilderness is a production of Crooked Media. It's written and hosted by me, Jon Favreau.
Our senior producer and editor is Andrea B. Scott.
Austin Fisher is our producer.

Speaker 6 And Ferris Afari is our associate producer. Sound design by Vasilis Fatopoulos.
Music by Marty Fowler. Charlotte Landis and Jordan Cantor sound engineered the show.

Speaker 6 Thanks to Katie Long, Reed Cherlin, Matt DeGrat, and Madeline Herringer for production support.

Speaker 6 To our video team, Rachel Gaietski, Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel, and David Tolles, who filmed and edited the show.

Speaker 6 If the wilderness has inspired you to get involved, head on over to votesaveamerica.com slash 2024 to sign up and find a volunteer shift near you.

Speaker 9 What's poppin' listeners?

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