Barack Obama on Democracy, Gaza and 2024
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Speaker 14 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau.
Speaker 15 I'm Tommy's accountability partner, John Lovett.
Speaker 14 I'm Tommy Peter.
Speaker 16 That's my worst nightmare.
Speaker 14 On today's show. We're a weird.
Speaker 15 I have a different feeling about it.
Speaker 14 Go.
Speaker 14
We'll get to that later. On today's show, Donald Trump takes the stand in his civil fraud case.
His advisors draw out plans to use the military against protesters if he wins the election.
Speaker 14 A new set of battleground polls in the New York Times show Trump ahead of Joe Biden just about everywhere. Speaker Mike Johnson uses an app to monitor his son's porn intake.
Speaker 14 And later, our interview with Barack Obama on the 15th anniversary of his 2008 election. How about that for a description of the
Speaker 15 couple accountability partners getting together in Chicago?
Speaker 16 Think you would have done this if we told him what was his lead-in?
Speaker 14 Probably not. But first, it's Election Day, where Ohio will vote on a ballot measure that would protect abortion access.
Speaker 14 Virginia will decide whether to give Republican Governor Glenn Young the Republican legislature he needs to ban abortion.
Speaker 14 Kentucky will decide what polls are now showing is a very close race between Democratic governor Andy Bashir and Republican anti-abortion extremist Daniel Cameron.
Speaker 14 And Mississippi decides whether to elect a Democratic governor for the first time in 20 years. If you live in these states or other places with elections on Tuesday, go vote.
Speaker 16 Pennsylvania, Supreme Court.
Speaker 14
Thank you, Tommy. Thank you.
Big big elections. There's some New York City elections as well, local elections there.
There's elections, people.
Speaker 14 If you need more info, if you want to know whether there's an election near you or how you can help, head to votesaveamerica.com, as always. and we'll be breaking down all the results later this week.
Speaker 14 All right, let's get to the rest of the news. Okay, uh, we are a year out from Election Day 2024, and the New York Times is kicking off the party with a new poll of more than 3,600 registered voters.
Speaker 14 It's a big sample across the six most competitive battleground states that show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by an average of 48 to 44 percent. So, they did 600 voters per state.
Speaker 14 Trump is up 5241 in Nevada.
Speaker 14 4943 in Georgia, 49.44 in Arizona, 4843 in Michigan, and 48.44 in Pennsylvania, with Joe Biden leading only in Wisconsin by 47 to 45%.
Speaker 14 The results don't seem to reflect either Trump's strengths or the Democratic Party's weaknesses. Trump is slightly more unpopular with voters in this poll than he was in 2020.
Speaker 14 And voters would choose in this poll an unnamed generic Democrat over Trump by eight points.
Speaker 14 And at least in this poll, even Vice President Kamala Harris performs two points better than Biden against Trump.
Speaker 14 What is mostly bothering voters, at least in this poll, is what we've seen in nearly every single poll for the last several years.
Speaker 14 Biden's age, his handling of the economy, and his ability to do the job. I'll stop there so you two can get in on the fun.
Speaker 14 And maybe we can start with your takes on the reaction from the Biden folks and some Democratic strategists, which I'd summarize as it's one poll. Obama was in a similar spot back in 2011.
Speaker 14
The election is a full year away. The campaign hasn't started yet.
The economy is improving. And Trump might be a convicted felon by the time people start voting.
What do you guys think?
Speaker 16
Yeah, I mean, the point that we're a year out from the election is absolutely right. Lots of time.
Events will change. There's time to campaign.
The campaigning hasn't really even started.
Speaker 16 There will be lots of paid media, billions of dollars of paid media, to try to sell Joe Biden's message to America. That's all right.
Speaker 16 The response that grinds my gears a little bit is the everyone stop bedwetting.
Speaker 16 It's like, ah, we can't tell people that, you know, the future of American democracy itself is at stake, but also like chillax. You know, like, I think everyone's allowed to feel a little anxiety.
Speaker 16 And so, you know, I think what you do with that anxiety is up to you.
Speaker 16 And, you know, those of us who want to channel it into action by volunteering and donating and getting involved, I think that's the path forward here.
Speaker 16 But in terms of what we learned from this poll, I mean, it's clear that Joe Biden personally has real challenges at the moment with younger voters, especially voters under 30.
Speaker 16 He went from being up considerably in the last election to basically tired. He has real challenges with voters of color, both African-American and Latino voters.
Speaker 16 And there's real questions about his age. And, you know,
Speaker 16 the challenge going forward is whether
Speaker 16 Biden can convince these voters of color and young voters that he's actually working for them and that his policies are improving their lives, because a lot of people are saying in these polls that they're not feeling that improvement.
Speaker 16 And then separately, I think there's this age question of whether he can convince voters who have been convinced by, I don't know,
Speaker 16 maybe it's misleadingly edited social media videos on TikTok or whatever that he's not fit for the job that in fact he is. But, you know, a lot of different tracks here for problems he needs to solve.
Speaker 15
Yeah, I mean, it's also, by the way, like, you don't need to see misleadingly edited footage of Joe Biden to worry about Joe Biden's age. Joe Biden's age is his biggest liability.
He is very old.
Speaker 15 It makes a lot of people, including us, nervous. And I think, like, you look at what the response has been, you say, all right, Barack Obama went through a new cycle like this.
Speaker 15 You can look at previous incumbents, George W. Bush, and say, like, these are all people that saw polls at around this time that showed them down and they managed to claw their way back.
Speaker 15 The uncertainty in all this, which I think is a reason for a lot of grave concern, is the effort you can make in the ways that you would in any race to close some of these gaps around making sure people understand your accomplishments, making sure people understand the threat that Trump poses.
Speaker 15 I mean, one number that I think
Speaker 15 is really bad in this poll, but is actually in a strange way, like a glimmer of hope, is it says only 46% of voters say Mr.
Speaker 15
Biden has the proper temperament to be president, barely higher than the 43% who said the same of Mr. Trump.
Like you can look at that and say, hold on a second.
Speaker 15 That's how, look how badly Biden has lost his edge. But then you say, well, hold on a second.
Speaker 15
But then you say, reintroduce people to the Donald Trump they know and hate. And all of a sudden, you'll see those numbers come down.
But what we don't know is, okay, you've done that.
Speaker 15 You've made a case for Joe Biden and his accomplishments, his legacy as president. You've made a case against Donald Trump.
Speaker 15 Does the age factor continue to matter in a way that you can't control for it, in a way that you can't change? Is it a liability that is
Speaker 15 it an unwinnable assignment to overcome the age question? That is, I think, the fear.
Speaker 14 I want to separate our analysis from our advocacy here. Like, obviously, we want to do everything humanly possible to make sure Donald Trump doesn't become president again.
Speaker 14
And that includes doing everything humanly possible to re-elect Joe Biden if he's the nominee. But as always, we want to give you like the most honest analysis.
And that means no sugarcoating.
Speaker 14 And it also means no like unnecessary doomerism either. Neither.
Speaker 14 So with that said, like here's where I think the Biden folks have a point. It is just one poll.
Speaker 14 Even excellent polls, which I think the New York Times Sienna poll is, can only tell you about how voters are feeling at that given moment. And this happens to be a moment where the U.S.
Speaker 14 and the world are in turmoil. And Barack Obama did have approval ratings that were almost as bad as Biden's one year out from the 2012 election.
Speaker 14 But here's where I disagree with some of the rosier analysis. The polling averages all show Trump slightly ahead right now, not just this poll.
Speaker 14
And you can, you know, a lot of people are like, the Susquehanna poll last week had Biden up seventh. Like, yeah, it did.
But when you average all the polls, Trump is slightly ahead.
Speaker 14
Unlike Barack Obama, Joe Biden's approval rating has been stuck in the low 40s for two years now. Two years.
That was not the case with Barack Obama. It went up and down, up and down.
Speaker 14 For Joe Biden, it was in the low 40s when other Democrats, not named Joe Biden, overperformed in the midterms.
Speaker 14 Midterms where the New York Times poll basically nailed the results of the most competitive Senate races and where most of the polls that weren't done by partisan Republican firms were also pretty accurate.
Speaker 14
Polls did not predict a red wave in 2022. The political coverage suggested a red wave.
The nonpartisan polls were actually really good.
Speaker 14 And when Nate Silver wrote his trollish, is Obama Toast piece in the New York Times that everyone's citing from 2011, this is what the polls in the months of November and December said about an Obama-Romney race when Nate had that headline.
Speaker 14
Obama plus six, Obama plus six, Obama plus four, Obama plus one. There were 13 polls in those months.
Only two had Romney ahead. The rest all had Barack Obama ahead.
Speaker 14
So, and like the other, yeah, the other challenge, the age challenge, obviously, inflation has come down. Prices have not.
And so the problem is like, you know, you're pissed about a $15 cheeseburger.
Speaker 14 The $15 cheeseburger is no longer, the price isn't going up anymore, but it's stuck at $15.
Speaker 16 It's not going to be 12. It's not going to be 12.
Speaker 14 That's the issue. And that is a source of real frustration for people.
Speaker 15
People say, oh, it's just one poll. Yes, it it is a snapshot, and polls catch people at a moment in time.
What I find,
Speaker 15 to your point, this poll is a reflection of a lot of other polls.
Speaker 14 This poll is not an outlier of what currently it is. It is in such a way that it's not a science.
Speaker 15 Yeah, no, I'm saying. So it's like, yes, you can view this as a snapshot in time, but you can't say, oh, don't worry about one poll.
Speaker 15 Because this poll is capturing a mood, it is capturing a feeling, it is capturing a result that we've seen across the board.
Speaker 16 Yeah, in the interest of not sugarcoating it, I mean, the sort of biggest things that worried me are on the economy, a majority of voters say Biden's policies have personally hurt them, but they think Trump's policies helped them.
Speaker 16 So that means that 59% said they trusted Trump over Biden on the economy. It was 59% to 37%.
Speaker 16 That's a pretty large deficit on the economy. And then when it comes to the age question, 71% of voters think Biden is too old to be an effective president.
Speaker 16 Three years ago, only 30% of voters said he was too old to be president. Now, the Biden folks will push back and say in that same poll, 39% of voters say Trump is too old.
Speaker 16 And that's right and that's fair. But I think that speaks to
Speaker 16 probably a large subset of people in the country who feel like they're both too old and are looking for some sort of alternative, which might mean they lead to the Green Party, they could RFK Jr., et cetera.
Speaker 16 And so I think when it comes to the age question, it's just not guaranteed that you can change people's mind about whether someone is too old to do a job, right?
Speaker 16 That might be a view that gets hardened. The other last thing that worries me is half of the respondents think that Joe Biden profited from Hunter Biden's business dealings.
Speaker 16 Now, all available evidence suggests that that is not true at all. There's no evidence to back that up.
Speaker 16 But it again speaks to how powerful the right-wing disinformation ecosystem has been and how much efforts on the Hill to just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks have actually been effective.
Speaker 14 I want to zero in on the voters that Biden is losing here, as Tommy pointed out.
Speaker 14 Young voters, especially young non-white voters and also non-white voters in general.
Speaker 14 And I think when you hear that, maybe when a lot of people listening in our audience hear that, they think, oh, maybe those voters think that Joe Biden is not progressive enough. That is not the case.
Speaker 14 The young voters and the voters of color who have left Joe Biden in this poll are more disengaged from politics. They are more moderate.
Speaker 14
They do not necessarily think that Joe Biden isn't progressive enough. They also don't think he's too liberal.
Most of them say that ideologically he's just fine.
Speaker 14
They are upset about the age and they're upset about the economy. And abortion, democracy, a lot of the social issues are not their top issue.
Their top issue is the economy.
Speaker 14
That is the number one issue for a lot of these young voters. They are extremely disaffected.
And in general, they did not show up in the midterms.
Speaker 14 So you must be thinking to yourself, like, okay, what about all the young voters I know that are very progressive and voters of color who are progressive?
Speaker 14 They showed up in the midterms and they voted for Democrats and they have supported Joe Biden in the past. So those voters are with us.
Speaker 14 The voters who did not show up, if you just correct Joe Biden's problems with the voters who didn't show up in the midterms, he would be ahead right now.
Speaker 15 Yeah,
Speaker 15 and
Speaker 15 if you just take the young voters who were open to Kamala, but not to Biden, you erase a lot of the gap. And by the way, it's not like Kamala Harris is beating Donald Trump.
Speaker 15 A generic Democrat is beating Donald Trump. Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden is doing, but she still carries some of the effects of incumbency.
Speaker 15 59% of voters under 30 rated the economy as poor. Zero respondents under 30 in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin said the economy was excellent.
Speaker 15 The other thing about this, too, is the message that's driving the midterms right now, trying to turn people out against right-wing extremism and turn people out in favor of abortion, which helped a great deal in the midterms.
Speaker 15 These voters that we need to bring back aren't the kind of voters who turned out in the midterms. Now, the question is,
Speaker 15 are they people that are receptive to an argument around abortion and democracy, but it hasn't reached them yet?
Speaker 14 40% of voters who picked Trump in this poll said that abortion should always or mostly be legal, and they picked Trump anyway.
Speaker 15 And so, what is it that we need to do to reach those voters with a message around abortion?
Speaker 15 Or is it that questions around this, we've talked about this before, like, you know, we have this belief that this argument for democracy is really effective.
Speaker 15 It is for a certain segment of voter-strictly engaged people.
Speaker 15 And also, by the way, for a lot of like moderate older voters that are the kind of people that have come to Joe Biden.
Speaker 15 But for younger, disaffected voters, we're making an argument for democracy in a democracy they don't feel is working for them.
Speaker 15 So what is it you need to do to make that case around abortion, around democracy, and around basic economic issues to bring those people in in a way that we're currently not doing? Because clearly
Speaker 15 there is something really missing here.
Speaker 16 It's got a real Nevada problem. Well, 17% of Nevada Democrats said they'll vote for Trump.
Speaker 14
Also, the most diverse state. Yeah.
And it's very odd how, for the first time in a long time, racial polarization has gone the other way in this poll.
Speaker 14 So someone was like, people are, you know, rightly questioning, like, well, then why is Biden leading by two in Wisconsin? Wisconsin was a tight state.
Speaker 14 Wisconsin is the whitest and one of the older states. And he's doing next, the next two best states for him are Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Speaker 14 And those are also pretty white states, but except for the areas around Philadelphia and Detroit where he's not doing that well.
Speaker 16 And there's subsequent survey data that came that was done after this New York Times poll that suggests that Biden has some real problems with Arab American, Muslim American, young voters in Michigan that I think is just something to keep in the back of your head.
Speaker 14 The other interesting thing is when you
Speaker 14 Biden is doing better in this poll with likely voters than registered voters.
Speaker 14 And if you just go by likely voters, he actually catches up to Trump in Michigan, and then he does better in some other ones. And that's that's part of this is,
Speaker 14 and Nate Cohn goes into this in the polling analysis, which is like some of these younger voters.
Speaker 14 When you asked them the first time, do you pick Biden or Trump? They said neither. And then it was only when you pushed them, they said, maybe Trump, but they don't really love Trump either.
Speaker 14 They're not like sold on Trump. And the question is, did these voters just stay home in 2024?
Speaker 14 And so we also could be headed for a very bizarre situation where a lower turnout election helps Joe Biden, which is, again, why Democrats, one of the reasons why Democrats did so well in the midterms, because the type of voters who show up in the midterms, college educated, in cities, suburbs, like those are now more Democratic voters.
Speaker 15 There's also, I mean, look,
Speaker 15 young people
Speaker 15 are not suddenly discovering that they're open to Donald Trump in a strange way.
Speaker 15 This poll to me is a little bit of a bizarre version of what we started to see in 2016 and, you know, didn't really accept as what was happening, which is this idea of trump as just like this like giant middle finger you can pull like a lever like are you for joe biden are you for for donald trump i'm for neither well you have to pick fine then fuck you i'll vote for donald trump yeah so there's there could be a little there could be that or it could be serious or we don't know we don't know i mean the one thing i would say look i think we've done i think we've done our uh um our our uh penance to the pessimism gods i think we've we've paid our respects the fire is burning i i know i've i just real analysis i know no i know i'm not not i'm i'm agreeing i'm glad we're having this conversation there was one piece of this is, I think, like, there was a little note of, a little note of hope, a little,
Speaker 14
you know. Oh, I have a couple.
Yeah, I have a couple. I'm
Speaker 14 to the good side.
Speaker 15 Okay. Well, just that one, one that I thought was interesting is that
Speaker 15 if
Speaker 15 Trump is convicted of a crime, 6% of voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin said they would switch their votes to Biden,
Speaker 15 which would change this entire poll.
Speaker 14 It's not just
Speaker 16 gets it at 49%, Biden.
Speaker 14 No, that means, so it goes from Trump 48, Biden 44 to Biden 49, Trump 39. I mean, that's it.
Speaker 16 It's a ballgame, but it's just, it's not even a majority of the countries.
Speaker 14 No, but that's all you swear. No, I was, I know, 6% sounded small, but then when I looked at it, when you actually look at what happens in each state, Biden's winning by double digits in every state.
Speaker 16 No,
Speaker 16 it's the 49 is from
Speaker 16 people who switch from Trump to Biden and also people, Trump voters who go to third party.
Speaker 15 But what I was going to say about that is, okay, people are very bad, I think, sometimes at imagining how a changing circumstance will change how they feel.
Speaker 15 You'll see one number that I think was quite abysmal that I don't take very seriously is where people say they would never do this or never do that.
Speaker 15 There's several of our presidents have been people who have had polls that said more than the majority would never support them.
Speaker 15 But the fact that even just imagining it, there are 6% of people who switch tells you that the impact of what happens with Donald Trump is convicted could have
Speaker 15 a massive shift
Speaker 15 in polling.
Speaker 14 It is the biggest source of optimism in this poll that if Donald Trump is convicted,
Speaker 14 but it also speaks to all of we say it a million times, but like all of us who pay such close attention to politics and are like news junkies, like most voters are just normies.
Speaker 14 They don't pay that close attention to politics. And so you know what?
Speaker 14 Because we're all like, how could they see that Donald Trump did this and said this? And how could they still vote for him? And like, they're not paying that close attention.
Speaker 14 They forget pretty easily. And you know what?
Speaker 14 They really care about the economy, but there are also people who, if they see a candidate for president get convicted of a crime, they're going to be like, oh no, I don't think that's a good idea.
Speaker 14
I don't want to vote for that person. I'm pretty unhappy with Joe Biden.
I think he's a little too old, but this guy's a criminal?
Speaker 14 Like, it does make sense that, like, when you, whenever you're confused about the electorate, just think, like, what are normal people who don't pay close attention to politics thinking right now?
Speaker 15 I will say I had that thought, and then I gave myself another anxiety thought, which is, okay,
Speaker 15 there's a huge concern among young people that Joe Biden is too old. And that is especially pronounced among people who are disaffected and don't play close attention.
Speaker 15 Over the next year, if they do start paying closer attention, if the coverage starts shifting to a head-to-head race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, is Joe Biden
Speaker 15 on the campaign for the next 11 months and 29 days, is that going to leave people reassured around his age?
Speaker 15 Or that's going to bring more attention, especially given the way it's edited and shared on social media,
Speaker 15 more fodder for people's deep concerns?
Speaker 14 That's up to him in the campaign.
Speaker 14 The other sign of optimism is: look, the voters that are giving Trump the lead in this poll are voters that have typically supported Democrats and just supported Biden, in fact, by large margins, right?
Speaker 14 Young voters, black voters, Hispanic voters. So in theory, these are easier voters to win back for Joe Biden, right? Like this, the idea that Donald Trump could get 20% of the black vote.
Speaker 14 Something that has not happened with, forget about Donald Trump, any Republican president in the post-Civil Rights Act era, like that would be, and, you know, Nate Cohn says this in the analysis, it it would be like a earthquake in American politics.
Speaker 14 And it is probably unlikely, right? Now,
Speaker 14
Donald Trump can still win without 20%. He can, he got 8% last time.
He could get 9%, 10, 11%, and probably win that way.
Speaker 14 But it does speak to the idea that once you, like Tommy said, throw a billion dollars into a campaign,
Speaker 14 start polarizing, you know, a campaign that reminds people what they care about, what Donald Trump is all about, what Democrats are all about, what's at stake for them and their lives, like the numbers could start shifting.
Speaker 14
That's the other thing. And the other, look, an unnamed generic Democrat led Trump by this poll by three in 2019.
Now the unnamed generic Democrat leads Trump by eight, right?
Speaker 14 And that just goes to show that like Trump has become less popular between 2019 and now. The problem is Biden led Trump by two in 2019 in this poll at this time and now loses by five.
Speaker 14 So it is a Biden issue.
Speaker 15 Yeah, and just the other piece of this, too, is
Speaker 15 people do not, again, this is not a poll that shows Donald Trump's strengths, it shows his weaknesses.
Speaker 15 People that are choosing between two options they're extremely unhappy with are not making a firm and solid choice.
Speaker 15 They're not, this is not a like, this is not a, this, this result may mirror a lot of polls in the past, but it's not, it's not stable because the support because people's decision is firm.
Speaker 15 It is stable because people are really unhappy with their choices and they continue to have that feeling.
Speaker 14 So our pal David Axerod caused quite a stir when he said that Joe Biden needs to decide whether it's in his best interest or the country's best interest to keep running.
Speaker 14 What do you guys think of Axe's Twitter thread there?
Speaker 16 I mean, let's just start with the fact that David Axelrod is a good person who genuinely cares about the future of the country, and he's not doing this to be a dick or because he wants to hurt Joe Biden or any other nefarious reason.
Speaker 16
He's just worried like everybody else. I think what is so hard about this situation we're all in is nobody wants to make the mistakes of 2016 again.
Nobody wants to
Speaker 16 convince themselves that, oh, there's no way a Democrat could lose Pennsylvania or there's no way that Hillary Clinton can't win to someone as terrible as a human being as Donald Trump.
Speaker 16 So we're going to all get asked the hard questions and kind of speak truthfully about these polls.
Speaker 16 But you also don't want to contribute to Joe Biden's political problems by helping generate unhelpful narratives about his candidacies, right? So that's
Speaker 16 the hard place we're all stuck in. But at the end of the day, unless you're a Dean Phillips supporter or you're excited by Marianne Williamson,
Speaker 16 there's no one else in the Democratic primary for you to to vote for. So, and I've seen no evidence that Joe Biden's considering dropping out.
Speaker 16 So as much as I respect Axelrod's opinion, I don't think that Joe Biden is going to listen to David Axelrod on this question. I don't think he's going to listen to us either.
Speaker 16 I think there's probably a very small group of friends and family and advisors that Biden may or may not talk to about a question like this. And so, you know, I...
Speaker 16 I get where Axe is coming from, but I also get why the White House is frustrated that he tweeted it, you know?
Speaker 14 So you're totally extremely small group of people. Probably a smaller group of people than most others, right? Like Biden has a very close circle, and Joe Biden is going to make this decision.
Speaker 14 And the only people he's going to listen to are probably Jill Biden and Valerie, his sister, and probably not even Barack Obama, right? Like not like it's a very small group of people.
Speaker 14
And so you focus on the things you can control and not the things you can't control. We cannot control.
We're not going to get like a hashtag trending on Twitter to get Joe Biden to step aside.
Speaker 14
Like, we cannot control this, right? And an acts can't control it. No one can control it.
So it's got to be something that he decides.
Speaker 14 Now, if he did decide at some point to step aside, then you have Kamal Harris, who's still in this poll losing to Trump by a little, by just almost the same as Biden, just slightly better.
Speaker 14 And then you've got Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker, maybe Raphael Warnock, none of whom have been tested on the national stage or even in the polls yet.
Speaker 14 They'd have to get on the ballot in most primary states this month. Then when are the debates? When and how do do they all raise money?
Speaker 14 How's everyone supposed to choose between them by January, February, or March when these primaries are? Now, I'm not saying that's all impossible.
Speaker 14 It can happen, but the alternative scenario where Joe Biden steps down tomorrow brings a bunch of challenges on its own that I think we should just be ware of before everyone's like, oh,
Speaker 14 that would be the saving grace if you just step down.
Speaker 14 There's a lot of challenges to that at this point, too. I was really very late.
Speaker 15 I also, by the way, one reason there's a very small circle of people that Joe Biden would listen to on this question is Joe Biden.
Speaker 15 One reason Joe Biden is president is because he didn't listen to the people who told him
Speaker 14
it goes through his head all the time. And it goes through his staff's head all the time.
And I get it.
Speaker 15
And it's right. And, like, you know, never, you know, Ron Clain said this, never underestimate how much people will underestimate Joe Biden.
I think that's true. I think about that.
Speaker 15 I think about that in my own reaction to this because, you know, I have this, we all have these, we're all in conversations.
Speaker 15 Everyone listening to this show is talking to people about their concerns about this and their concerns
Speaker 15 that as much as they are worried about Joe Biden's age and his liabilities, that you don't feel certain that you would want to live in a world tomorrow where Joe Biden said he wasn't running.
Speaker 15 And all of a sudden, not the fantasy of a perfect alternative, but the reality of a messy and very quick and very contentious process to choose an alternative is suddenly what we are dealing with.
Speaker 15
I don't know what that's like. Neither do you.
Neither does anybody.
Speaker 15 And so.
Speaker 15 I don't know.
Speaker 14 You know, Democrats, we get along. We don't fight.
Speaker 14 I'm sure a primary that lasted a month or two, I think it would go well. I'd say, I mean,
Speaker 16 if Joe Biden did decide to drop out to tomorrow, and I'm not saying I'm calling for him or I want him to or anything like that, but if he did, I'm actually fine with a messy primary.
Speaker 16 I think messy primaries are good. It gets a lot of attention around the world.
Speaker 14 Oh, yeah, I am too. I'm not sure.
Speaker 16
It's totally fine. It's just, it wouldn't be simple.
No.
Speaker 16 If you jumped in tomorrow, you already wouldn't be on the ballot in Nevada, New Hampshire, and you have to get on the ballots in Alabama, Michigan, and South Carolina by the end of this week, and California and Florida by the end of the month.
Speaker 16
So it's an incredibly complicated piece of business. And that's why I think people find Dean Phillips so fucking annoying.
Because
Speaker 16 even if people were like hungry for some Dean Phillips in their lives, he should have done this a year ago, not a week or two ago.
Speaker 14 And also, just start playing out. They're all going to want to differentiate themselves from each other on issues.
Speaker 14 The progressive base activists are still going to be there demanding certain positions.
Speaker 14 Just as an example, everyone gets in, Joe Biden gets out, and suddenly it's like, who's going to call for a ceasefire, right? And which of you are going to call the ceasefire?
Speaker 14 who's going to say no more aid to Israel, right? And then you're going to start dividing up there. And like things are going to get, and that's just one issue.
Speaker 16 Don't threaten me with a good time. I know, you know, I know.
Speaker 14
But I'm saying that's just one issue, right? Like there's, there's a whole bunch of other issues that are contentious. And suddenly we're like off to the existence.
I agree, Tommy, that like it,
Speaker 14 I do not fear primaries. I never have, but
Speaker 14 it's a scenario that's not without challenges.
Speaker 15 It is 44 years to the day since Ted Kennedy decided he was going to challenge Jimmy Carter. I think that looms over a lot of this.
Speaker 15 People are worried that they would jump in, lose, and leave behind a weakened Joe Biden.
Speaker 15 But underneath that is also, I think, the reality that, look, even Axel Rodman was asked about this by the Times.
Speaker 15 Obviously, he did an interview after, and he said, give me Joe Biden's record, chop off 10 to 15 years. I'd be really confident, right? Dean Phillips goes.
Speaker 15
Dean Phillips goes on television and says, I'm not running against Joe Biden. I'm running for the future.
Okay.
Speaker 14 What?
Speaker 15 Why? What's different? Why are you better? Why? And
Speaker 15 the
Speaker 14 Dean Phillips kind of proves the point of how the
Speaker 14 alternate scenario is complicated, but it's not the easiest either.
Speaker 15 Yeah, Barack Obama can challenge Hillary Clinton and he can use a generational frame, but that's as part as an avatar for deeper cultural, political, ideological differences. Which he laid out over
Speaker 16
the key one being supportive for the Iraqi. Of course.
Dean Phillips is out there having voted with Joe Biden 100% of the time, saying I'm better than him. Why?
Speaker 15 I just like, we are in one year.
Speaker 15 I don't think so.
Speaker 15
Right. In one year, there's four boxes.
One of them is Joe Biden wins. One of them is Joe Biden loses.
One of them is somebody else wins. And one of them is somebody else loses.
Speaker 15 If Joe Biden stays in the race,
Speaker 15 people will look back at this moment and say, I told you so. If Joe Biden gets out and a Democrat loses, people will look back at this moment and say, I told you so.
Speaker 15 I don't care about I told you so's.
Speaker 15 I just think collectively, collectively, we have to be honest about our own uncertainty and anxiety that it is legitimate, that it is real, but that nobody has an easy or simple answer.
Speaker 14 Yeah, yeah. And you know what? And I actually don't worry about the conversation and having this conversation.
Speaker 14 And I don't really worry about access tweet because we just talked about the voters who are worried about here. They are not paying attention to this.
Speaker 14 They have no idea we're having this conversation.
Speaker 15 It's just the freaks right now. Just us freaks.
Speaker 14 You know, and like if Joe Biden goes through and he's running and he's the nominee, we're all going to just do every fucking thing possible to get him elected because Donald Trump in a second term is fucking terrifying.
Speaker 16 I had a very smart, very thoughtful reporter today ask ask me if Barack Obama commenting on the situation in Gaza created political problems for Joe Biden.
Speaker 16 And I very, very confidently said, no, the situation in Gaza creates political problems for Joe Biden, right? Because that is the core thing that's ridiculous.
Speaker 14 No, I know, I know.
Speaker 16 It's a DC story from a DC outlet. So it is what it is.
Speaker 16 But it's like, yes, in terms of the things that actually move people, the voters are actually paying attention to, it's not going to be this debate we're all having.
Speaker 3 Did you know 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving?
Speaker 6 Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights.
Speaker 7 Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway.
Speaker 9 As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety with Greenlight Infinity's driving reports.
Speaker 11 Monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding, and more.
Speaker 5 These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety.
Speaker 13 Plus, with weekly updates, you can track their progress over time.
Speaker 4 Help keep your teens safe.
Speaker 10 Sign up for Greenlight Infinity at greenlight.com/slash podcast.
Speaker 14 A BetterHelp ad.
Speaker 17 This November, BetterHelp is encouraging people to reach out, grab lunch with an old friend, call your parents, or even find support in therapy.
Speaker 17 BetterHelp makes it easy with its therapist match commitment and over 12 years of online therapy experience, matching members with qualified professionals.
Speaker 17 And just like that lunch with an old friend, once you do reach out, you'll wonder, why didn't I do this sooner? Start now at betterhelp.com for 10% off your first month.
Speaker 14 So, the candidate who's somehow leading the race for the presidency took the stand in the New York civil fraud trial that could cost him his business empire.
Speaker 14 Donald Trump's four-hour testimony included multiple rants.
Speaker 14 He was yelling at Letitia James, the Attorney General. He was yelling at the judge.
Speaker 14 The judge at one point asked Trump's Trump's lawyer to control his client.
Speaker 14 At one point, told Trump this isn't a political rally.
Speaker 14 And then, of course, Trump couldn't help but talk to the cameras as he left the courtroom. Let's listen.
Speaker 14 I think it went very well.
Speaker 18 I think you were there, and you listened, and you see what scam this is. This is a case that should have never been brought.
Speaker 18 I don't have to be here for the most part, but I certainly do have to be here because I want to be here.
Speaker 14 This is a sad,
Speaker 18 I think it's a very sad day for America.
Speaker 14 Seems like he's really impressed the guy who's going to decide how much money he has to pay, huh? That's what I'm saying. I keep coming back to that.
Speaker 15
I keep coming back to that. There's no jury.
Not a jury trip. There's no jury.
Speaker 14 It's not televised. He's not playing for the cameras.
Speaker 15
The person he is antagonizing is 100% in charge. And by the way, not his guilt or innocence.
This guy already called him guilty a month ago.
Speaker 15 This is purely about assessing how much this guy wants to punish Donald Trump. And he walks in every day and just like puts a thumb in his eye.
Speaker 15 Every fucking day comes up with a new way to make this judge absolutely fucking hate him. And I love it.
Speaker 16 And he does these little press avails from behind a couple layers of bike rack that makes him look like he's currently in prison, by the way.
Speaker 16
And then to your point, though, about them like doing, worrying about all the wrong things, Don Jr. and Eric testified last week.
Ivanka testifies on Wednesday. Don Jr.
Speaker 16 and Eric, I believe, blamed their accountants or suggested they didn't look at financial statements.
Speaker 16 But then
Speaker 16 Don Jr. went on social media and basically spent three days whining that Sam Bankman Freed got like a weirdly hot courtroom sketch and that Don Jr.
Speaker 14 made him look ugly.
Speaker 16 And it's like, hey, man, maybe focus on the fact that SBF is going to go to jail for a very long time and you don't want to do that either.
Speaker 14
That courtroom sketch, though, that was wild. It was weird.
That did not look like him.
Speaker 16 Yeah. No, it did not.
Speaker 14 Anyway, that's just an aside.
Speaker 14 I just, I don't, like, I know that sometimes we assign strategy to Trump, and even if it's not like a well-thought-out strategy, it's like he's got like a good instinct or he's got an instinct for being a showman or media or whatever.
Speaker 14 But like, there is, this is not instinct pissing off the judge that's going to decide how much you owe. This is him being an undisciplined fuck.
Speaker 14 Like, he is just like the guy he, he, when you, because when he walked into the courtroom and they asked him questions, he did the like, he pretended he was like zipping up his mouth, right?
Speaker 14 Because he's under a gaggle.
Speaker 14
So he like knew that he shouldn't do this. And then he just can't help himself.
This is why we got to get him out on the campaign trail again. Got to get him out there, cover him all the time.
Speaker 14 The guy can't help himself. He always falls back into the undisciplined Donald Trump that screws himself.
Speaker 15 Well, it's also like, it's very, it's very much like an inner monologue that then pops out. So he's on the stand and he's about the judge.
Speaker 15 He said, he called me a fraud and he didn't know anything about me, Trump said, referencing the judge, the judge who's in the room.
Speaker 15
First of all, rude to talk about somebody in the third person when they're sitting there. Absolutely.
But then the judge retorts, read my opinion, perhaps for the first time.
Speaker 14 That was a good one.
Speaker 16 The New York Times live blog pointed out that he even embarked on an impassioned ode to his Scottish golf course, calling it the greatest golf course ever built.
Speaker 15 Again, who is that helping, Doc?
Speaker 14 I know. So in case voters aren't put off by electing a convicted felon who tried to overturn the last election, perhaps Trump's plans for a second term will give people pause.
Speaker 14 The Washington Post reports that Trump intends to use the Justice Department to not only investigate Democratic opponents like Joe Biden and his family, but also former allies who've turned against him, like Bill Barr and John Kelly.
Speaker 14
He's got the whole list. He's got the whole list.
And this is even more alarming. Because the Bill Barr, John Kelly thing, yeah, I kind of laughed.
Speaker 14 It's really alarming. Trump's goons are reportedly drawing up plans to invoke the Insurrection Act as early as Inauguration Day to deploy the military against any anti-Trump protesters.
Speaker 15 It has a name.
Speaker 15
It's a group of outside people. It has a name.
It's called Project 2025.
Speaker 14 Yeah, I think it's like, how's it the Heritage Foundation? What's happening over there?
Speaker 15 For the first time, nothing good.
Speaker 14 Accelerationists.
Speaker 14 But usually they're just talking about supply-side economics.
Speaker 14 Now they're using the military against the American people. Like, can we get enough people to care about that?
Speaker 14 Or would voters rather a president who threatens them at gunpoint than Joe Biden who's a little too old?
Speaker 14
Yeah, yeah. Put this in a fucking ad.
Put this in an ad.
Speaker 14 People need to.
Speaker 16 I'm not convinced this one's going to work. Look, this, I care a lot about this.
Speaker 16 Deploying the military against demonstrators is very bad.
Speaker 16 He's told advisors that he wants the Department of Justice to investigate all of his allies.
Speaker 16 Apparently, John Kelly, his former chief of staff, said that in the first term, Trump would tell his White House counsel to have the FBI investigate his enemies, and they would just kind of pocket veto those kind of crazy demands.
Speaker 16 But in the second term, you're not going to have thoughtful, reasonable people in any of these jobs.
Speaker 16 It's going to be the lunatics chosen by this Heritage Foundation group of whoever it is, Stephen Miller.
Speaker 14 I do not think,
Speaker 14 sadly, that people will give a shit if Donald Trump goes after Bill Bill Barr and John Kelly or even Democrats. And I hate that, but I worry about what the polls would say about that.
Speaker 14 I do think military against the American people is something that would get people going. And I could be wrong, but I'd love to.
Speaker 16 Maybe you just got to convince them it's like a real story and not just like hyperbolic reporting from Democrats or whatever.
Speaker 15 That's how I, like, I don't.
Speaker 15 There's this, we're in this vice grip again, which is that when Trump is off the front pages, people forget how terrible he is and how monstrous he is. And then when he's back on the front pages,
Speaker 15 the tears of his horrors kind of meld together and it ends up being a kind of like
Speaker 15 fire alarm that's always going off about the ways he'll abuse the Justice Department, his threat to abortion rights,
Speaker 15 his chaos, the fact that
Speaker 15 the military said they wouldn't launch nuclear weapons if he wanted to launch them, unleashing
Speaker 15 the cops into Lafayette Park. It's just like the crime and the corruption and the scandal.
Speaker 15 And I don't, I don't have an answer to it, but I do think that like it does end up becoming either silence or noise. And I don't, I don't know.
Speaker 14
I don't think it's it's it's we don't know because it's nothing right now. No one's doing it.
And I think like even on that one, I would,
Speaker 14
there's the images of the trip across Lafayette Park when he tried to do it there. There's him saying he wished he did it.
He wished he invoked the Insurrection Act. We have that.
Speaker 14
Then we have the Washington Post story. So you're right.
Like just a story and a headline. I don't don't think you're going to, I know there's challenges, but you can tell a story.
Speaker 16 Here's our square of the circle. Bill Barr, John Kelly, General Milley, the top military and political aides to Donald Trump.
Speaker 16 Maybe this can convince them to sit down on camera and tell the stories that they tell to the Atlantic on background or when they go to the Aspen Institute forum and they get drunk with the editors of some fancy magazine.
Speaker 15 Like, sit down, record these on camera, tell us what you heard, tell us the worst stories, and maybe you can prevent this outcome yeah that includes you getting prosecuted i mean we have some of them doing that and during the january 6th hearings and which i think had an effect in the internet what i was going to add is trump has now taken to referring to the january 6th uh insurrectionists who've been convicted as hostages did you see this yeah
Speaker 15 and i think that like images of the capitol and images of what these people did and of the people who died and the chaos and you put video of donald trump calling them hostages that he's basically saying or sometimes explicitly, sometimes implicitly, that he will pardon and release.
Speaker 15 I think that's like pretty fucking damning. Because again, one of his lowest moments is when people saw January 6th, they really internalized just how dangerous he was.
Speaker 15 We have to put that back in people's minds.
Speaker 14 Yeah, I do. It's like turning the military against the American people is going to be, it's chilling to people.
Speaker 14 And I think that like, we've got to, we've got to, I mean, you've got to figure out a way to make the case because it's the truth. It's not just like a political attack.
Speaker 14
It's, it's what he's going to do. It's what he wanted to do before.
And if for no other reason than that, you like, you have to make that case.
Speaker 15 I also think this ties back to the conversation we had about polling, too, because I do think that like we're, we're,
Speaker 15 you know, we're, our minds go right to, all right, what do you do? How to react? What does it mean? But you step back from this, and it's like, I think a lot of people see a poll like that.
Speaker 15
And like, to your point, they're like, I don't understand. I don't understand.
And you're like, the point you made is right. Like, people don't know.
They're not seeing it.
Speaker 15
These are the disaffected people. These are the people that aren't paying as close of attention.
That's a big part of it.
Speaker 15 But another part of it, too, is is like the fact that joe biden came in in the wake of a of a a pandemic facing a you know recalcitrant republican opposition and managed to get as much done as he did get done and that he's not getting any credit for it that is obviously something that joe biden campaign has to deal with it's something that we as people that want to make sure a democrat wins has to deal with but it is i think okay to point out like we are we start with a handicap of a media environment in which it is very hard for people to get informed and understand what's going on in the world.
Speaker 15
And like that sucks. That is really frustrating.
That makes politics a slog. It makes it feel impossible.
Speaker 15 And like that isn't even, that isn't, yes, the Joe Biden campaign has to deal with that reality, but that's not on, that's not on Democrats. That's not on us as individuals who care about this.
Speaker 15 Like that is the reality of dealing with this broken system that made someone like Trump eligible to be president in the first place.
Speaker 14
That's all. Let's not forget that if Trump wins, it's very likely that Mikey Johnson remains Speaker of the House.
And the more we learn learn about this guy,
Speaker 14 weirder he gets. Here's a clip from all the way back in 2022.
Speaker 14 I first saw this clip. I was like, oh, is this someone unearthing this from the early 2000s? No, no, no, 2022.
Speaker 14 Where Johnson talks about using an app that allows he and his son to monitor each other's potential porn intake.
Speaker 19
Covenant Eyes is the software that we've been using a long time in our household. It's a subscription-based, we don't make any money on this.
I'm telling you, we use it, okay?
Speaker 19
I'm endorsing it because I'm a user. It scans, you obviously opt into it, but it scans all the activity on your phone or your devices, your laptop, tablet, what have you.
We do all of it.
Speaker 19 And then it sends a report to your accountability partner. So my accountability partner right now is Jack, my son, right? And so he's 17.
Speaker 19 So he and I get a report of all the things that are on our phones or all of our devices once a week. If anything objectionable comes up, your accountability partner gets an immediate notice.
Speaker 19 I'm proud to to tell you my son has got a clean slate, all right?
Speaker 14 So
Speaker 14 who's going to be accountability? You two are going to be accountability partners?
Speaker 14 I got Dan? Yeah.
Speaker 15 First of all, I just, it's hard enough being a teenager these days without Big Brother stopping you from masturbating. You know? He's like,
Speaker 15 I'm so proud my son's devices are clean. It's like, okay, I guess he's using his imagination.
Speaker 15 What is a fucking teenage boy? I don't care. I don't care how many Bibles are in the house.
Speaker 16 There is an unspoken understanding between fathers and sons that
Speaker 16 you know that I know that you know what it's like to be a teenage boy.
Speaker 14 And you know that I know, but we're not going to talk about that.
Speaker 16
We're not going to send any transparency reports. We're not going to talk about any slate being wiped clean, wiped clean of what, sir.
Like, this is fucking madness.
Speaker 16 And I've seen a bunch of people on Twitter be like, oh, you know, I grew up in the evangelical church.
Speaker 15 There were apps like this.
Speaker 16 You know, like, this is the, that's the furthest thing from my upbringing. So cult chalk, that's a cultural blind spot for me, I guess.
Speaker 14 But having your accountability partner you know why you're you know why it's the spot's so blind having your accountability partner be your son
Speaker 14 that is that's a myth john
Speaker 14 having your accountability partner be your son is so fucking weird it's uh that is so weird i also like um someday he's gonna snapped and just to get back at his dad he's gonna he's gonna go house on that phone and mike johnson's gonna get quite a report someday um
Speaker 15 like i there's sort of a there's a there's a
Speaker 15 so speaker johnson sorry to bring this up but uh it sounds like but for Covenant Eyes, you'd be whacking it off constantly or what? What are we talking about here? How badly do you need this app?
Speaker 16 It is really sus that you need an app to keep you from looking at porn. Something's deeper there.
Speaker 15 This is from the promotional materials for Covenant Eyes.
Speaker 20
Install the sensor app on all of your devices to form a network of protection. The victory app is where it all comes together.
You get access to exclusive content to help you grow.
Speaker 15 The whole point of this is that you exclusive content to help you grow.
Speaker 15 Isn't the whole point to stop that?
Speaker 15 Isn't that the thing? Isn't that the enemy of these?
Speaker 15 Isn't that what God's trying to stop them from doing? By the way, isn't God the covenant eyes?
Speaker 15 Why do you need an app to stop you if God is seeing it all?
Speaker 14 Well, now we're getting into the real rest of it.
Speaker 14
I'm just saying. You know who I just really want to hear answer a question about Mike Johnson and this app just for just for fun because you know it's going to be a great response.
It's Donald Trump.
Speaker 14
Yeah. Don't you want to hear it? A type five.
Donald Jr. I want to
Speaker 14 I I want to hear a tight five from Donald Trump on the covenant because every once in a while Donald Trump he won't say anything bad but he'll have this smile on his face like he's like because he all know Pence is a freak because Donald Trump does not want to be tied to the guy who's this fucking freaky
Speaker 14 like he want he's just not like that I also want I want it to be a debate question this week let's ask I want to hear I want to hear Tim Scott talk about it I want to hear Ron DeSantis talk about it We always hear in the media and in polling that like Democrats are too liberal and that we're pushing this cultural agenda that some people don't like and it's foreign to them.
Speaker 16 This is so much weirder than anything that the Democratic Party talks about. This is batshit to me.
Speaker 14 We thought it was cool to do the
Speaker 14 car on the roof for Romney in the 2012 campaign. That was this, I would, I would be talking about this thing the whole campaign.
Speaker 15 I will say, I am sure too. I will, just to not to make, I don't want to go.
Speaker 14 I like
Speaker 15 there are plenty of people, like just to internet porn. Like, I I am sure the next round of this story is going to be what?
Speaker 14 The way the
Speaker 14 head on there's so much hedging on the streets. I'm trying to articulate this.
Speaker 15 I'm trying to articulate this.
Speaker 14 I can't wait for this to be a clip.
Speaker 15 I'm trying to articulate this. That I think the next round of this story is going to be conservatives saying that liberals, oh,
Speaker 15 you think kids looking at porn is good and you want porn is good.
Speaker 15 And look, like
Speaker 15 the creepiness of this aside, like, I am sure there's there's going to be a round.
Speaker 15 That's all I was getting at is it's going to be a round of story about, like, internet porn is bad for a lot of teens, and it is actually, I think, really harmful for a lot of kids.
Speaker 15 And it is, like, on a list of things that we,
Speaker 15 one thing I thought when I saw this is, like, in the same way that, like, food is really unhealthy and there's sugar and everything. So you need to either be more disciplined than
Speaker 15 you could ever hope to achieve or internalize body positivity, despite the whole culture telling you that you should feel ugly, that there's so much porn everywhere, and you need need to be disciplined and stop looking at it.
Speaker 14 We got a real Clinton V chip saffra over here.
Speaker 15 Well, I do.
Speaker 14
I just, that's what you're running for. I'm not running for anything.
I'm not running for anything.
Speaker 15 I'm running at home. I got some cool content I need to watch.
Speaker 16 Listen, all I know is that Mike Johnson is giving me a priest of confession who wants to hear a little too much about your masturbation vibes, and I don't like it. I don't like it at all.
Speaker 15 Wait, what are you picturing?
Speaker 16 Nothing.
Speaker 15 And what are they wearing in the.
Speaker 15 And they're wearing what?
Speaker 16 Robes.
Speaker 14 Well, kind of multiple. I just think it's something for families to figure out.
Speaker 14 Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, I think they have.
Speaker 14 They have.
Speaker 15 He's not making us download Covenant Eyes, not yet.
Speaker 14
Not yet. Not till Trump's second term.
Right. Not pissed you'd be if you're doing
Speaker 14 the streets and yeah, military instruments.
Speaker 16 That was really cute the way you guys did that together. Yep.
Speaker 15 Yep.
Speaker 14 That's why that's why we're accounting for
Speaker 14
you. You get Dan.
Yeah, you get Dan.
Speaker 15 You get to find out what kind of porn Dan likes.
Speaker 14 Are we done? Anyway, let's introduce our interview with Barack Obama. That was way worse than I thought it was.
Speaker 14 Before we get to our interview with Barack Obama, a few quick housekeeping notes.
Speaker 14 Thank God. Join us tonight.
Speaker 15
Knock, knock, knock. Housekeeper comes in.
You forgot to pay me. Oh, is there nothing I can do?
Speaker 14
What? I'm just doing corn. Oh, God.
Join us tonight, Tuesday night from 4 to 9 p.m. Pacific for our election night support group on the Friends of the Pod Discord.
That'll be fun.
Speaker 14 Then on Wednesday, November 8th, we'll be back on Discord for our group thread that will cover the third Republican primary debate. That should be fun.
Speaker 14
If you haven't joined Friends of the Pod yet, you're missing out on lots of fun. Discord's lots of fun.
You get great content terminally online. We've got more shows coming up.
Speaker 14
It's going to be really fun. Head over to crooked.com slash friends and join.
Also, check out What a Day and Hysteria.
Speaker 14
They're going to have their own breakdowns of Tuesday's election results and what it all means. So check all that out.
All right.
Speaker 14 Last Thursday and Friday, we had the privilege of gathering in Chicago with a couple thousand of our closest friends to celebrate the 15th anniversary of Obama winning the 2008 election.
Speaker 14 As part of the festivities that were hosted by the Obama Foundation, Tommy, Dan, Alyssa, and I got to sit down on stage with the man himself.
Speaker 14 We talked about how Obama thinks about the election now, the future of democracy, the war in Gaza, and what all of us can do to help save democracy.
Speaker 14 And also, if you like the 2008 Obama nostalgia, we have some great subscription-exclusive content on this very topic coming your way.
Speaker 14 So, again, sign up at crooked.com/slash friends to be the first to hear it. When we come back, President Barack Barack Obama.
Speaker 3 Did you know 39% of teen drivers admit to texting while driving?
Speaker 5 Even scarier, those who text are more likely to speed and run red lights.
Speaker 7 Shockingly, 94% know it's dangerous, but do it anyway.
Speaker 9 As a parent, you can't always be in the car, but you can stay connected to their safety with Greenlight Infinity's driving reports.
Speaker 11 Monitor their driving habits, see if they're using their phone, speeding, and more.
Speaker 12 These reports provide real data for meaningful conversations about safety.
Speaker 13 Plus, with weekly updates, you can track their progress over time.
Speaker 4 Help keep your team safe.
Speaker 10 Sign up for Greenlight Infinity at greenlight.com slash podcast.
Speaker 14 A BetterHelp ad.
Speaker 17 This November, BetterHelp is encouraging people to reach out, grab lunch with an old friend, call your parents, or even find support in therapy.
Speaker 17 BetterHelp makes it easy with its therapist match commitment and over 12 years of online therapy experience, matching members with qualified professionals.
Speaker 17 And just like that lunch with an old friend, once you do reach out, you'll wonder, why didn't I do this sooner? Start now at betterhelp.com for 10% off your first month.
Speaker 14 What up, what up?
Speaker 14 I
Speaker 14 was wearing a jacket and then
Speaker 14 there was, you know, this whole faux casual thing.
Speaker 21 It's not the, I've been this way my whole life.
Speaker 14 But then Alyssa did remind me, you know, that the whole shirt sleeve,
Speaker 14 you know, roll up the sleeves thing, you know, that is
Speaker 14
kind of the brand. That's the vibe.
Yeah. For this crew.
Speaker 14
So good to see everybody. You too.
Hello.
Speaker 14 Good to see everybody.
Speaker 21 Okay, so first question is from me.
Speaker 14 Okay. Okay.
Speaker 21 So 15 years ago, a lot of people in this room were in Grant Park, unarguably the nicest night that Chicago ever could have given us, weatherwise.
Speaker 14 Unbelievable.
Speaker 21 And I know that all of us have talked over the years about, well, do you remember this and do you remember that? And like our memories have iterated. And so
Speaker 21 I just wanted to ask you, can you tell us what you think about that night when you look back on it?
Speaker 14 I'll be honest with you, and
Speaker 14 some of you have heard me say this.
Speaker 14 I felt pretty sober that night
Speaker 14 because
Speaker 14 I was fairly optimistic at that point that we were going to win.
Speaker 14 And I had said to everybody on the campaign trail, to staff, that
Speaker 14 The point of winning
Speaker 14 was
Speaker 14 not
Speaker 14 the celebration and standing up. The point of winning was then to do the work.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 I have to say that by the time the official announcement was made, I was already spending a lot of time thinking about
Speaker 14 the work.
Speaker 14 And so
Speaker 14 there was a satisfaction.
Speaker 14 The thing probably that I remember the most
Speaker 14 was
Speaker 14 sitting in the hotel waiting for the final call.
Speaker 14 And Pete Souza took a picture of this. Some of you may have seen it.
Speaker 14 Michelle was off with the girls doing something
Speaker 14 in another corner of the room. And I'm sitting there with Michelle's mom.
Speaker 14 And we're just watching the television. And she's just quiet, and she's just sitting there.
Speaker 14 And I remember
Speaker 14 thinking to myself,
Speaker 14 what does this mean for her?
Speaker 14 She was born and raised in Englewood on the South Side, had moved then to South Shore,
Speaker 14 married, raised a family.
Speaker 14 During her childhood,
Speaker 14 even
Speaker 14 her going or being taken to Marshall Fields or one of the department stores downtown.
Speaker 14 If she could go in, she wouldn't have been welcomed.
Speaker 14 She had family,
Speaker 14 people,
Speaker 14 smart, skilled tradesmen,
Speaker 14 some educators who
Speaker 14 could never aspire to
Speaker 14 do more than
Speaker 14 work in a factory or work as a clerk.
Speaker 14 And so she's sitting there and she's witnessing that her daughter is about to be the first lady of the United States. And I remember her just, she was very quiet, and then she just
Speaker 14 and she's not a demonstrative person, and she just
Speaker 14 reached out and held my hand.
Speaker 14 And I think
Speaker 14 that's something that stayed with me.
Speaker 14 I was thinking about
Speaker 14 how much the world has changed over the last 15 years.
Speaker 14
And obviously, you dealt with your fair share of crises in the White House. We all remember that.
But
Speaker 14 we were never living in fear that if we lost the next election, that we might lose our democracy. And obviously, that is a fear that is very much with us right now.
Speaker 14 And I know you've talked a lot about what it will take to protect democracy. And,
Speaker 14 you know, that involves policies that improve people's lives, and structural reforms, and strengthening institutions, and winning elections.
Speaker 14 But you and I have talked a lot over the years about the power of a really good story.
Speaker 14 And I wonder if you were running for president today in this political environment, in this media environment,
Speaker 14 what story would you tell about why democracy is a better choice than what the demagogues and authoritarians are selling?
Speaker 14 So
Speaker 14 I think the starting point
Speaker 14 is to talk about the things that are uppermost on people's mind to give you a permission structure to get to democracy, right?
Speaker 14 One of the things
Speaker 14 we learned about 2016 is
Speaker 14 if you are simply running against
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 fear
Speaker 14 and you don't have a positive story to tell about
Speaker 14 the concrete challenges that people face. Folks may not get to that higher level
Speaker 14 story about the meaning of the country and so forth. So
Speaker 14 I remember during the midterms when I was a surrogate helping folks out,
Speaker 14 one of the things I really insisted on is, well, we
Speaker 14 need to talk about inflation and we need to talk about crime and we need talk about immigration. We need to talk about the things that
Speaker 14 are
Speaker 14 uppermost in people's minds or are being fed to people,
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 speak about those squarely, and that's the gateway to then get to
Speaker 14 where we want to be. So,
Speaker 14 that's point number one.
Speaker 14 Look, if you think back to what we did in
Speaker 14 08,
Speaker 14 12,
Speaker 14 ideally
Speaker 14 when we were on our game during the course of
Speaker 14 the presidency,
Speaker 14 the story really didn't change about America.
Speaker 14 And the story was
Speaker 14 you have a bunch of people show up on these shores, many of them outcasts, many of them escaping tyranny, escaping
Speaker 14 crushing poverty, escaping discrimination,
Speaker 14 escaping caste,
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 trying to
Speaker 14 make
Speaker 14 of their lives what
Speaker 14 they could. And even more importantly,
Speaker 14 trying to make sure that their kids had something different.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 was
Speaker 14 always
Speaker 14 a
Speaker 14 from the very beginning
Speaker 14 an experiment in overcoming the gap between ideals and reality. And democracy was never exactly as promised.
Speaker 14 And then we had a bunch of people
Speaker 14 who worked together
Speaker 14 to realize that promise. And I think the argument
Speaker 14 we can tap into right now
Speaker 14 is
Speaker 14 remembering, reminding people of the fact that
Speaker 14 we've been through stuff like this before.
Speaker 14 We've been through eras in which
Speaker 14 not that long ago, in which
Speaker 14 black people were second-class citizens,
Speaker 14 in which gay people were in the closet
Speaker 14 out of necessity, because otherwise they might
Speaker 14 not be able to be employed,
Speaker 14 or worse.
Speaker 14 We've been in situations in which women
Speaker 14 were subordinate.
Speaker 14 And the good news is, is that
Speaker 14 because we had this system of being able to persuade each other
Speaker 14 about the better angels of our nature,
Speaker 14 in fits and starts,
Speaker 14 we got better.
Speaker 14 We got kinder, we got more tolerant.
Speaker 14 And it's never been perfect, and it's never been,
Speaker 14 it's always been messy,
Speaker 14 but
Speaker 14 there was a pathway for us to express our best selves.
Speaker 14 And that
Speaker 14 was true not just for Democrats, it was true for Republicans too.
Speaker 14 And so I think that's the starting point for them to be able to say
Speaker 14 And some of you have heard me say this, you know, it's not as if the entire history of this country Democrats were on the right side of this thing.
Speaker 14 Democrats, for most of modern history, up until the civil rights legislation,
Speaker 14 they were anti-democratic
Speaker 14 and terrorized people and killed them for trying to exercise their democracy.
Speaker 14
So we don't have clean hands. And I think acknowledging that is, again, an entryway.
What I'm always trying to look for is a way to
Speaker 14 get to the point
Speaker 14 where
Speaker 14 somebody
Speaker 14 who
Speaker 14 otherwise wouldn't listen and is fearful and is angry and suspicious
Speaker 14 can stop because they feel as if I saw them for a second and I understood their lives. And in that moment,
Speaker 14 Maybe then I can
Speaker 14 persuade them that
Speaker 14 this precious thing we have, which is our ability to sort things out
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 exercise forbearance towards each other and
Speaker 14 understanding and just getting along and listening.
Speaker 14 If I can get to that moment,
Speaker 14 then I think we'll be okay.
Speaker 14 And that's really the instinct that people have. Look,
Speaker 14 let's face it,
Speaker 14 we did well in this last midterm,
Speaker 14 not because all the trend lines were in our favor.
Speaker 14 It was because the majority of people believe in that story and they recognize it in their own lives.
Speaker 14 And so
Speaker 14 speaking to them on those terms is what's vital, which is why I think the last time we were together,
Speaker 14 you know, I said that kind of forbearance,
Speaker 14 we have to exercise, we have to model and exercise as well.
Speaker 14 And a losing strategy for us, I think, is when
Speaker 14 we
Speaker 14 are so
Speaker 14 insistent on our purity,
Speaker 14 when we're so self-righteous about our positions,
Speaker 14 that we can't see those folks.
Speaker 14 Or we're talking down to them, or
Speaker 14 our general attitude is
Speaker 14 that
Speaker 14 we're going to convince you about how wrong you are.
Speaker 14 I have not seen that work yet.
Speaker 14 Now, look,
Speaker 14 last point I'll make.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 I think about this a lot because I've been writing about it.
Speaker 14 There are times or moments there is room for a prophetic voice, just radical truth-telling.
Speaker 14 And not only is that sometimes satisfying, but our own base sometimes needs to hear that, right?
Speaker 14 But you have to pick and choose your spots, and you always have to...
Speaker 14 Even when you're in that mode, you've got to give people an opening
Speaker 14 to,
Speaker 14 you have to give them an invitation to,
Speaker 14 there's got to be room for them in that truth that you're speaking.
Speaker 14 I'm telling you something maybe that you don't want to hear, but you know what?
Speaker 14 I'll bet you can understand it and be a part of us addressing that truth.
Speaker 14 So,
Speaker 14 all right.
Speaker 16 Speaking of those kinds of conversations,
Speaker 16 last week you wrote this thoughtful,
Speaker 16 nuanced statement on the situation in Israel and Gaza. Unfortunately,
Speaker 16 the debate online, especially on social media, is not that. It
Speaker 16 can be very strident and dug in and a lot of people fighting and talking past each other.
Speaker 16 I imagine there's a lot of people in this room or people listening at home who see what's happening, care deeply, want to be educated, want to participate in the conversation, but they're scared of saying the wrong thing, hurting someone's feelings unnecessarily, or just kind of not knowing enough to participate, and therefore they kind of tap out.
Speaker 16 What's your advice to people who want to participate in these debates that can feel so fraught about what the path forward is?
Speaker 14 Look,
Speaker 14 I
Speaker 14 always say
Speaker 14 I probably wouldn't have been elected,
Speaker 14 even to the Senate, and certainly not the presidency, had there not been this weird convergence with
Speaker 14 the internet and early social media.
Speaker 14 I was an outsider.
Speaker 14 I didn't have the backing of
Speaker 14 institutions and organizations.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 there was so much power
Speaker 14 in seeing all these young voices being able to gather together
Speaker 14 from every walk of life. But
Speaker 14 I'm dating myself now. It was mostly MySpace and Meetup.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 I always,
Speaker 14 because I've been working a lot on social media issues and misinformation and now AI, I always point out, you know the thing about meetup
Speaker 14 was you had to meet up.
Speaker 14 Because it's a pretty crude flintstone tool, right?
Speaker 14 You send, it's like, hey, we're going to be in the church basement
Speaker 14 in Des Moines on Saturday, meet up.
Speaker 14 That was pretty much the extent of the technology. Yeah, it's like a corkboard.
Speaker 14 But the reason I tell that story is
Speaker 14 that
Speaker 14 the power of meeting up is something that all of you will remember whenever we'd walk into a campaign office.
Speaker 14 Whatever your idea of what an Obama supporter was when you got into the campaign office, just as
Speaker 14 was true if you went to a meetup meeting, is you've got
Speaker 14 a young black woman with a nose ring, and you've got some
Speaker 14 middle-aged white guy in a flannel shirt and a buzz cut who's an Army veteran, and you've got a
Speaker 14 Hispanic
Speaker 14 gay engineer.
Speaker 14 And the reason that was powerful was because you imagine at the first meet-up meeting, okay, I've got an assumption about what an Obama supporter is.
Speaker 14 But then when I sit there, it turns out that
Speaker 14 that person's not actually completely like me.
Speaker 14 And if they're talking, that means that they've got some quirky ideas.
Speaker 14 And I promise you, you all know we had some quirky volunteers.
Speaker 14 And
Speaker 14 who had some unexpected views that did not correspond to
Speaker 14 the litanous test of progressivism,
Speaker 14 right?
Speaker 14 The reason reason I'm telling that story is because what that allowed was for
Speaker 14 all of us to see each other in their complexity
Speaker 14 and then
Speaker 14 still decide, all right, let's work together. And then they had to all go out and knock on doors and meet people who were even more quirky,
Speaker 14 right?
Speaker 14 So, going back to obviously a serious question,
Speaker 14 there is always,
Speaker 14 there's no way to avoid
Speaker 14 in this particular moment on this particular issue after
Speaker 14 so much blood has been spilled
Speaker 14 against the backdrop of this history.
Speaker 14 It
Speaker 14 doesn't matter whether it's online or in person, there is going to be
Speaker 14 rage
Speaker 14 and anger and
Speaker 14 not just generational traumas, right? I mean, this is
Speaker 14 century-old stuff that's coming to the fore. And
Speaker 14 you are, and you've witnessed the kind of worst cruelty and tragedy that can befall people with involving children and
Speaker 14 spouses and grandparents. And
Speaker 14 passions are going to be high.
Speaker 14 But
Speaker 14 what I will say is that
Speaker 14 if there's any chance of us being able to act constructively to do something,
Speaker 14 it will require
Speaker 14 an admission of complexity
Speaker 14 and maintaining
Speaker 14 what
Speaker 14 what on the surface may seem contradictory ideas.
Speaker 14 That what Hamas did was horrific and there's no justification for it.
Speaker 14 And what is also true is that
Speaker 14 the occupation
Speaker 14 and what's happening to Palestinians is
Speaker 14 unbearable.
Speaker 14 And what is also true is that there is a history
Speaker 14 of the Jewish people that
Speaker 14 may be dismissed unless your grandparents or your great-grandparents or your uncle or your aunt tell you stories
Speaker 14 about
Speaker 14 the madness of anti-Semitism.
Speaker 14 And what is true is that
Speaker 14 There are people right now who are dying
Speaker 14 who have nothing to do with what Hamas did
Speaker 14 and what is true, right? I mean, we can go on for a while.
Speaker 14 And the problem with the social media and trying to TikTok
Speaker 14 activism and trying to debate this on that
Speaker 14
is you can't speak the truth. You can pretend to speak the truth.
You can speak one side of the truth.
Speaker 14 And in some cases, you can try to maintain your moral innocence
Speaker 14 by virtue of
Speaker 14 just grabbing that slice of the truth.
Speaker 14 But that won't solve the problem.
Speaker 14 And so, if you want to solve the problem,
Speaker 14 then you have to take in the whole truth.
Speaker 14 And you then have to admit
Speaker 14 nobody's hands are clean
Speaker 14 that
Speaker 14 all of us are complicit to some degree I look at this and I think back what could I have done during my presidency to to move this forward as hard as I tried I've got the scars to prove it But there's a part of me that's still saying, well, was there something else I could have done?
Speaker 14 That's the conversation we should be having, not just looking backwards, but looking forward. And that can't happen if
Speaker 14 we are confining ourselves to our outrage.
Speaker 14 And even what I just said, which sounds very persuasive,
Speaker 14 does not.
Speaker 14 still doesn't answer the fact of, all right, how do we prevent kids from being killed today?
Speaker 14 So,
Speaker 14 which is why in conversations that I've had with some of the young activists, I've come with some humility and I say, look, I get why you might
Speaker 14 not want to look at history and context.
Speaker 14 That's your primary concern.
Speaker 14 But the problem is, is that
Speaker 14 if you are dug in on that, well, the other side is dug in remembering
Speaker 14 the videos that Hamas took of what they did on 7th, and they're dug in too, and which means we will not stop those kids from dying. So,
Speaker 14 my advice to young people who want to get involved,
Speaker 14 I guess
Speaker 14 it's not possible anymore to download Meetup,
Speaker 14 whatever it is,
Speaker 14 but
Speaker 14 approximate that. I would rather see you
Speaker 14 out there talking to people,
Speaker 14 including people who you disagree with.
Speaker 16 If you
Speaker 14 genuinely want to change this,
Speaker 14 then you've got to figure out how to speak to somebody on the other side and listen to them and understand
Speaker 14 what
Speaker 14 they are talking about
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 not dismiss it.
Speaker 14 Because you can't save that child without their help. Not in this situation.
Speaker 14 So, all right.
Speaker 14 We went over time, didn't we?
Speaker 14 That zero's been on. You know, look,
Speaker 14 come on, you guys know me.
Speaker 14 Don't bait me with a question like that and then think
Speaker 14 I'm gonna.
Speaker 14 This is why I could never
Speaker 14 win these debates.
Speaker 14 That's actually Dan's last question. That's right.
Speaker 14 You know, I mean,
Speaker 14
Put one on. That's all right.
All right.
Speaker 15 Sir, you
Speaker 16 sat down with us on your last full day in the White House, which is I'm sure how you planned to celebrate the end of your presidency.
Speaker 14
I did. You did.
And in that interview,
Speaker 14 you talked about how you saw your legacy.
Speaker 16 And you said that you wanted your legacy to be not necessarily the policies you passed, but what the people who got involved in politics through your campaigns, your administration, still doing years later to affect change.
Speaker 16 So here we are on the 15th anniversary of your election. Thousands of alumni are here.
Speaker 16 And I just wanted to close out here to get your reaction to what you see from what the people in this room are doing and how it makes you feel.
Speaker 14 I mean, I am beaming with pride.
Speaker 14 I'm
Speaker 14 listening to Jesse and Lauren.
Speaker 14 You know, I've had a chance yesterday, obviously, I stopped by
Speaker 14 your
Speaker 14 drunken bacchanal.
Speaker 14 I had a chance just now to speak to
Speaker 14 some of our senior team.
Speaker 14 Many, some of you have already heard this, but I'm going to repeat it because I just, it bears repeating.
Speaker 14 I actually generally am not nostalgic
Speaker 14 as I I'm writing about the presidency as I think about the presidency as I look at current issues
Speaker 14 I tend to remember the mistakes I made and and and and
Speaker 14 the the the doubts and questions I have and
Speaker 14 the things I didn't get done and
Speaker 14 I don't look at things through rose-colored glasses. I remember how hard
Speaker 14 every step of the way was.
Speaker 14 But as I just mentioned,
Speaker 14 the team,
Speaker 14 the people,
Speaker 14 the family, the culture that we constructed,
Speaker 14 that
Speaker 14 feels as true
Speaker 14 as anything in my life.
Speaker 14 And it was reflected
Speaker 14 on the campaign, and it was reflected in the White House. It was, as Michelle said, reflected in people in high-profile positions
Speaker 14
in the West Wing and East Wing. It was reflected in people who were working out of the limelight and agencies and embassies.
It was reflected by a bunch of kids dropped off in the middle of farms and
Speaker 14 communities that
Speaker 14 they had never imagined themselves being in.
Speaker 14 And yet somehow a bunch of 25 and
Speaker 14 some younger
Speaker 14 would persuade
Speaker 14 these communities
Speaker 14 that
Speaker 14 we had a chance to be better and
Speaker 14 listen to each other and treat each other with respect.
Speaker 14 And the fact that somehow that sustained itself
Speaker 14 across this many people,
Speaker 14 and
Speaker 14 this is just a fraction of the people who were involved,
Speaker 14 and that that now is carried forward,
Speaker 14 whether it's
Speaker 14 somebody
Speaker 14 like Lauren in Congress or
Speaker 14 Deb Halland suddenly goes to
Speaker 14 or
Speaker 14 it's somebody like Jesse
Speaker 14 or some of the folks you saw in the video who are
Speaker 14 in their own communities,
Speaker 14 transforming
Speaker 14 the culture of those communities
Speaker 14 and modeling
Speaker 14 that kindness and hard work and responsibility and consideration and
Speaker 14 openness to other people.
Speaker 14 That
Speaker 14 gets me
Speaker 14 choked up. That makes me proud.
Speaker 14 And that is something that
Speaker 14 I think part of what sometimes all of us who were part of this struggle with is
Speaker 14 we know that's out there in the country.
Speaker 14 We can feel it. And we know that
Speaker 14 when people
Speaker 14 have a chance to feel that
Speaker 14 in themselves and in their communities and in their neighborhoods, they feel better
Speaker 14 than they do when they're angry and hateful and
Speaker 14 closed off
Speaker 14 and lonely
Speaker 14 and feeling victimized. We know that.
Speaker 14 And so there's a part of us, I think, sometimes we just
Speaker 14 are
Speaker 14 so
Speaker 14 often
Speaker 14 what we're trying to figure out is
Speaker 14 how can we
Speaker 14 remind people of that?
Speaker 14 Not any particular campaign, but the fact that that honest human response is available to us and will ultimately save us.
Speaker 14 That's why I'm so proud of all of you.
Speaker 14 That's the thing that
Speaker 14 doesn't get old and stays with me and keeps me going.
Speaker 14 President Obama,
Speaker 14
thank you so much for doing this. Thank you for bringing us all together.
And thank you for giving every single person in this room and countless others the chance to go on this journey with you.
Speaker 14
All right. Appreciate you guys.
Love you.
Speaker 14
Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producers are Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Writing support from Hallie Kiefer.
Speaker 14
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Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis.
Speaker 14
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Speaker 14 Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman, David Toles, Kirill Pelaviev, and Molly Lobel.
Speaker 14 Subscribe to Pod Save America on YouTube to catch full episodes and extra video content. Find us at youtube.com slash at PodSave America.
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