What’s a Mike Johnson?

Transcript

Speaker 2 My uncontrollable movements called TD, tard of dyskinesia, felt embarrassing. I felt like disconnecting.

Speaker 2 I asked my doctor about treating my TD and learned about Ingreza, a prescription medicine clinically proven for reducing TD in adults. That's always one capsule, once daily, and number one prescribed.

Speaker 2 People taking Ingreza can stay on most mental health meds.

Speaker 3 Ingreza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with Huntington's disease. Call your doctor if you become depressed, have sudden behavior or mood changes, or suicidal thoughts.

Speaker 3 Don't take Ingreza if allergic.

Speaker 3 Serious side effects may include allergic reactions like sudden, potentially fatal swelling and hives, sleepiness, the most common side effect, and heart rhythm problems.

Speaker 4 Know how Ingreza affects you before operating a car or dangerous machinery.

Speaker 3 Report fever, stiff muscles, or problems thinking as these might be life-threatening. Shaking, stiffness, drooling, and trouble with moving or balance may occur.

Speaker 2 Take control by asking your doctor about Ingreza.

Speaker 4 Learn more at ingreza.com.

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Speaker 1 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau.

Speaker 7 I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

Speaker 1 On today's show, Joe Biden is about to get a primary opponent.

Speaker 1 Mark Meadows flips on Donald Trump, and former DOJ prosecutor Andrew Weissman joins to help us break down the week of bad legal news for the criminal defendant Republican Frontrunner. But first,

Speaker 1 the new Speaker of the House is allegedly a guy called Mike Johnson.

Speaker 1 A name that seems intentionally difficult to Google. I just made that one up so you Google Mike Johnson, you don't know what you're getting.

Speaker 1 Over the last three weeks, Republicans went from a Kevin to a Steve to a Jim to a Tom Tom before reaching outside their comfort zone and settling on a mic.

Speaker 1 The 51-year-old Louisiana congressman who seems just fine with being everyone's fifth choice, Johnson won unanimous support from his Republican colleagues.

Speaker 1 He's extreme enough for people like Matt Gaetz, who calls him MAGA Mike.

Speaker 1 MAGA Mike. That's what Matt Gates calls him.
That's what Donald Trump's calling him too.

Speaker 1 But he's apparently anonymous enough for the 18 Republicans in Biden districts who who are betting that their constituents won't find out they voted for a speaker who talks like this.

Speaker 8 You know, we don't live in a democracy because a democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what's for dinner. Okay, it's not just majority rule.
It's a constitutional republic.

Speaker 8 And the founders set that up because they followed the biblical admonition on what a civil society is supposed to look like.

Speaker 9 Roe v. Wade gave constitutional cover to the elective killing of unborn children in America, period.
You think about the implications of that on the economy.

Speaker 9 We're all struggling here to cover the bases of Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and all the rest.

Speaker 9 If we had all those able-bodied workers in the economy, we wouldn't be going upside down and toppling over like this.

Speaker 10 And, you know, the allegations about these voting machines, some of them being rigged with this software by Dominion, look, there's a lot of merit to that. The fix was in.

Speaker 10 You know, I could give you example after example in all these states.

Speaker 1 So after he wins

Speaker 1 the speakership, Mike Johnson holds a press conference with all of his Republican goon friends, and a reporter asks about his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election.

Speaker 1 And here's how he and the House Republicans responded.

Speaker 1 Boo elections. Go away, democracy.
Boo.

Speaker 1 So the Republicans have chosen as their highest ranking elected official in the country, someone who's been called a key architect of Trump's attempted coup, who wants to end Medicare and Social Security as we know it, who wants a national abortion ban, who's tried to criminalize gay marriage, gay sex, and introduce a national version of Florida's don't say gay law that would apply to not just schools, but any federal institutions, including public libraries, hospitals, and the military.

Speaker 1 Dan, how was Mike Johnson acceptable to the Biden District Republicans who thought that Jim Jordan was too extreme? And how did he succeed where Scalise and Emmer failed?

Speaker 7 I'm going to go on a limb here and suggest that these guys didn't really think this one through.

Speaker 7 What I think happened here is they were exhausted. He is clearly far right.
He is further to the right, particularly on these social issues than any of the other people who ran.

Speaker 7 He is, with the exception of Jim Jordan, more intimately involved in the coup than any of the people who ran. He just is largely anonymous.
He's less polarizing.

Speaker 7 I think he is a moderate demeanor in the halls of Congress, meaning he just doesn't want to run out without a suit coat bullying people like Jim Jordan does. He just seems like a pretty anonymous guy.

Speaker 7 And I think we got to the point where these Republicans were exhausted.

Speaker 7 frustrated, and he, Mike Johnson, was largely inoffensive to most of these Republicans who largely agree with most of what he says.

Speaker 7 And Donald Trump was largely agnostic on him and kind of appreciated his little motivational speech around the coup that Johnson gave Trump. And so they just went for it.

Speaker 7 If Johnson had been the second candidate or the third candidate or the fourth candidate, he would have failed. But because he was the fifth, when everyone was tired and exhausted, he snuck on through.

Speaker 1 I mean,

Speaker 1 people are now digging up all of the things that he has said, his positions, videos of him speaking.

Speaker 1 I mean, mean, this guy is further to the right on a lot of social issues than any Republican politician in America that I've heard about over the last several years. Like, just to go through a list.

Speaker 1 So, people in Maine right now are currently grieving the worst mass shooting in the state's history.

Speaker 1 In 2016, Johnson gave a sermon in which he said that in the 60s, we invented no-fault divorce laws, the sexual revolution, legalized abortion, radical feminism, and all of that is why, decades later we have mass shootings.

Speaker 1 He thought mass shootings that you could draw a straight line from the 60s and abortion and feminism to mass shootings today.

Speaker 1 He hates no-fault divorce laws so much that he's one of the leading proponents of something called covenant marriage, which I did not know what that was until I had to look it up because Mike Johnson is the speaker of the house now.

Speaker 1 Covenant marriage would make divorce harder and it makes it harder for women to leave bad marriages.

Speaker 1 So it makes it harder to get a divorce because you sign up on the front end for a covenant marriage.

Speaker 1 He has called being gay inherently unnatural and a dangerous lifestyle that could lead to legalized pedophilia and possibly even destroy the entire democratic system.

Speaker 1 He wrote about the evils of sexual conduct outside marriage. That's both homosexual and heterosexual sex.

Speaker 1 He said that the looting after, he's from Louisiana, he said that the looting after Katrina happened because of too much gambling and not enough God.

Speaker 1 He thinks public schools should teach the Bible as an accurate record of history. And here's my favorite.

Speaker 1 He tried to lobby, this is before he was a legislator, he tried to lobby for tax breaks for a Noah's Ark theme park in northern Kentucky that would teach people that there were actually dinosaurs aboard the ark.

Speaker 1 Did you know that, Dan? There were dinosaurs aboard. That is one way to square the circle.

Speaker 1 That's right. That is what he's that's how he squares evolution with creationism.
There were dinosaurs aboard the ark. Teach it to the children.
There will be less mass shootings. Case closed.

Speaker 1 That's Mike Johnson.

Speaker 7 That's Mike Johnson.

Speaker 7 Mike Johnson thinks the government should have no role in helping you have health care or have a secure retirement, but it should have a highly intense, very involved role in your sex life, your marriage, your health care decisions.

Speaker 7 I mean, Mike Johnson represents everything about Republicans that voters hate.

Speaker 7 Hate. Yeah.
Paul Ryan's economic policies, Mike Pence's social policies donald trump's wacky views on the election is mike johnson so in some ways thank you

Speaker 1 i know like i was gonna say and he also connects them too like let's i want to like pick apart that quote we heard about roe v wade he wants to force women to uh give birth so that those children can then be able-bodied workers to help fund social security and medicare like that is so fucking crazy.

Speaker 7 It is.

Speaker 1 Which he wants to gut. Which he wants to gut.
Social Security and Medicare.

Speaker 7 This man is second in line to the presidency, just to end this thing on a sour note.

Speaker 1 Second in line to the presidency. Second in line.
Every Republican voted for him. Every single one who was there voted for him.
No one voted against him.

Speaker 7 They cheered him and chanted Mike, Mike, Mike, as it happened.

Speaker 1 Which might have been the Mike.

Speaker 7 The first time any of them said his name.

Speaker 1 Do you hear what John Fetterman said just now when he was asked about him?

Speaker 7 No.

Speaker 1 He said, MAGA loves a big Johnson.

Speaker 1 All right, so what happens now? Johnson has opposed aid for Ukraine in the past, seems supportive of aid for Israel, really doesn't like spending money on Americans.

Speaker 1 How do we get through the next few months without a government shutdown?

Speaker 7 It's a great question, John. It's possible.
We're not making predictions here, but

Speaker 7 before he actually won the nomination, Johnson put forward a bit of a plan to the Republicans that included a temporary bill, a continuing resolution, if you will, to keep the government fund at current levels for some period of time, could be 45 days, could be a little bit longer, so that the House could pass the appropriations bills they said they would pass, but mostly failed to pass.

Speaker 7 So it seemed like maybe as he was elected, we were going to avoid it.

Speaker 7 But then some of the right-wing members like Ken Buck came out this morning and said, sure, we're for a continuing resolution, but we need to get something for it, like some cuts in funding or some border policy.

Speaker 7 So we are basically right back to where we were. It's possible the Republicans, Johnson's going to have some honeymoon period with these Republicans.

Speaker 7 So it may be that he'll get a couple of opportunities to do something that may anger some people. They'll just like take it.
So we could get a temporary resolution.

Speaker 7 How we avoid a government shutdown at some point seems quite hard to imagine given the dynamics in his caucus.

Speaker 7 And he still has the same sort of Damocles with the motion to vacate hanging over him that Kevin McCarthy did.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, the dynamics haven't changed, the fundamental dynamics, right?

Speaker 1 Like, you could see maybe a CR passing for a couple months, but like eventually the hard right MAGA crew that ousted McCarthy in the first place is going to want their pound of flesh in terms of the policies they get, in terms of budget cuts.

Speaker 1 So I don't know how we're going to, I don't know how we're going to get past that. How do you think Biden and the Democrats should handle a Johnson-led house?

Speaker 1 Is it possible for the president to show he's willing to work with Republicans, but also remind people that they're a bunch of arsonists who just elected Mike Johnson to lead them?

Speaker 7 It's so funny when you say Mike Johnson because it doesn't seem like he's a real person.

Speaker 1 I don't know if he is. I don't know if he is.
I mean, we only discovered his presence.

Speaker 1 I think we have an AI speaker.

Speaker 7 I think the president should show he can work with Republicans by working with the small handful of Senate Republicans who want to keep the government open and provide funding for Ukraine and Israel.

Speaker 7 There should not be some courtship of Mike Johnson where Mike Johnson comes over for cookies and whiskey and i mean

Speaker 7 just have a meeting with all the members all the leadership invite mike johnson but you're never going to be able to work with him or this republican house you cannot the only way you're going to get things done is by coming to an agreement with the senate a bipartisan agreement in the senate and jamming the house that is the only way it's going to happen and i think that mike johnson is a perfect punching bag for Democrats for the next several months here.

Speaker 7 There's going to be a race to define him to the country. We should win that race.
The president and Democrats should be at the front of leading that race.

Speaker 7 I think it's really important that Democrats show that there's an obstacle to progress on the things we care about. And that obstacle is this extreme MAGA house.

Speaker 7 And Mike Johnson is the opportunity in this new role, is an opportunity to do that in a way that breaks through to some people.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I think the president can do both, right? I mean, he already congratulated him and said he wants to work with him, which is obviously what he has to do.

Speaker 1 But like, he should be very firm in holding the house to the bipartisan budget deal that he struck with Kevin McCarthy and label anything that deviates from that as extremism that's actually going to hurt people.

Speaker 1 And like you said, he has Mitch McConnell and some Senate Republicans who want that bipartisan budget deal to go through.

Speaker 1 And so if MAGA Mike and his crew want to throw in all kinds of extras and shut the government down, then Biden can go out there and talk about how those budget cuts are going to hurt people, how those policies are going to hurt people, and who exactly is standing in the way.

Speaker 1 And he's on the side of a bipartisan majority in Washington. And MAGA Mike and his kooks and Donald Trump, they're the extreme.

Speaker 1 So, you know, if nothing else, Republicans certainly gave Democrats some decent political ads over the last few weeks.

Speaker 1 Here's a sample of what Republicans are saying about themselves.

Speaker 11 What they're doing right now is walking the Republicans off the plank.

Speaker 7 We don't deserve the majority.

Speaker 12 I have to say,

Speaker 12 it's my 10th term in Congress. This is probably one of the most embarrassing things I've seen.

Speaker 13 And the dysfunction in the Republican Party right now

Speaker 13 seems to be saying we want to lose. We might as well have Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats control the Congress.

Speaker 3 This whole episode reflected a House GOP at this moment.

Speaker 1 Oh, very poorly.

Speaker 14 Very, very poorly.

Speaker 13 We're now part of the dysfunction of Washington. Yes.

Speaker 1 They're now

Speaker 1 part of it.

Speaker 1 Opposed to the fucking well-oiled machine it was before.

Speaker 1 I mean, that was just, you know, our,

Speaker 1 Saul put that super cut together

Speaker 1 in a couple of minutes. Just think of the ads.
Think of the, think what Democratic ad makers could do with the last few weeks.

Speaker 1 If you were running a House campaign in a swing district, would you use some of this material in your ads?

Speaker 1 Or do you think it's more effective to focus on the Republican candidates' vote for MAGA Mike or Jim Jordan, which a lot of them did? Would you do both? Would you do neither? What do you think?

Speaker 7 I would take that super clip. I would play it at a Democratic Party convention.
I would have a great laugh with it, and and then I'd be done with it. I don't think it

Speaker 7 the, you have to pick, you have to pick a lane, right? In this media environment, you have to, you need one story of Damner that story home, and I think that story is extremism, not incompetence.

Speaker 7 Yeah, and so, and I don't think, and it's not their vote for MAGA Mike. That's what we're doing that, that's the thing we're doing, MAGA Mike, MAGA Mike.

Speaker 1 Uh, I mean, that's what Donald Trump's saying, that's what Matt Gates is saying.

Speaker 7 We've never not listened to those two, so let's do it.

Speaker 1 We know, we know from polling that that um voters actually know the difference or see a difference between mega and republicans that's true yeah okay which i wouldn't which i by the way would not have guessed but apparently they do i think it's a little more nuanced than they voted in october for this guy in a what is this what essentially to most voters is like a high school class president election it is that we take the positions of the speaker and we apply them to everyone.

Speaker 7 We use it as a way to tell a story about an extreme Congress that will do these things.

Speaker 7 Like one of the things we've talked about before, you have to do is you have to keep abortion at the top of people's minds if we want to have a chance to make 2024 look like 2022.

Speaker 7 And one way to do that is the fact that one of the most extreme anti-abortion politicians in America is the most powerful elected Republican in the country. And I think you can use that as a way.

Speaker 7 It's not that they voted for Jim Jordan or Magic Mike. It's that MAGA Mike, Magic Mike.

Speaker 1 That's the part of the story you didn't know

Speaker 1 for MAGA Mike.

Speaker 1 He has probably introduced legislation to ban that move

Speaker 1 the whole series.

Speaker 7 It is

Speaker 7 what MAGA Mike stands for as a way to tell a larger story about Republican extremism.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, look, if I was like Mike Lawler is one of those Republicans who's in a Biden district, right?

Speaker 1 If I was a Democrat running against Mike Lawler, I would make sure that everyone in Mike Lawler's district

Speaker 1 knows who MAGA Mike Mike Johnson is, knows what he said about gay people, knows what he said about abortion, know all of his views.

Speaker 1 I would make him famous in that district. I put pictures of the two of them together everywhere that I ran ads.

Speaker 1 I mean, this is like what Republicans used to do this with, you know, Biden and the squad, right? Nancy Pelosi for a decade. Nancy Pelosi for deck.
Yeah, for years and years and years.

Speaker 1 And look, I don't, I think that like, and a lot of times Republicans are just exaggerating the connection. In this case, all these Republicans just voted for him as speaker.

Speaker 1 They could have had a choice. They could have worked with Democrats.
They could have worked with Hakeem Jeffries to still have a Republican speaker and merely kept the government from shutting down.

Speaker 1 That's all that we were asking. Wasn't even, Democrats weren't even asking for more than that.

Speaker 1 They just wanted to fund the government and they would have still had a Republican speaker and like bring legislation to the floor that had a majority in the House. That's all.
Nothing crazy.

Speaker 1 But instead of that, they chose Mike Johnson. That's the path they chose.

Speaker 7 The most powerful Republican, the country wants to put people in jail for having sex.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Yeah.
And they, uh, and dinosaurs were on the arc. That's what we're, that's, that's the important thing.
Dinosaurs were on the arc. Need to make sure our kids learn that.
Okay.

Speaker 1 That's that. That's where the house is.
That's where the house. I do think it is like in 2024 for Democrats who want to take the house back.

Speaker 1 Like, you know, there's a lot of over-exuberance on a lot of different developments. This one,

Speaker 1 I mean, this is, it's like you said, he has all the worst politics.

Speaker 1 Not just worst politics for people like us, who are liberals and partisan Democrats, but for, I can tell you, most voters in this country do not think that sex should be criminalized, that gay marriage should be criminalized, that all abortion should be criminalized, that there should be a don't say gay law in every single state in the country that includes federally funded institutions,

Speaker 1 libraries, the military. I mean, this is fucking nuts.

Speaker 1 This is nuts. And you you think you hate his social policies?

Speaker 7 Wait till you check out his economic policies.

Speaker 1 Right. Yeah.
No kidding.

Speaker 1 And he just voted for a CR that cut like a 30% across the board cut, which doesn't sound like much, except when you actually get into the programs that that would cut and what that would mean for people.

Speaker 1 So yeah, he's nuts. Okay, before we head to break, two quick housekeeping notes.

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Speaker 1 Okay, when we come back, Dan talks to Andrew Weissman about Donald Trump's very bad week in court.

Speaker 2 My uncontrollable movements called TD, tard of dyskinesia felt embarrassing. I felt like disconnecting.

Speaker 2 I asked my doctor about treating my TD and learned about Ingreza, a prescription medicine clinically proven for reducing TD in adults. That's always one capsule, once daily, and number one prescribed.

Speaker 2 People taking Ingrezza can stay on most mental health meds.

Speaker 3 Ingreza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with Huntington's disease. Call your doctor if you become depressed, have sudden behavior or mood changes, or suicidal thoughts.

Speaker 3 Don't take Ingreza if allergic.

Speaker 3 Serious side effects may include allergic reactions like sudden, potentially fatal swelling and hives, sleepiness, the most common side effect, and heart rhythm problems.

Speaker 4 Know how Ingreza affects you before operating a car or dangerous machinery.

Speaker 3 Report fever, stiff muscles, or problems thinking as these might be life-threatening. Shaking, stiffness, drooling, and trouble with moving or balance may occur.

Speaker 2 Take control by asking your doctor about Ingreza.

Speaker 4 Learn more at ingreza.com.

Speaker 3 That's -

Speaker 3 R-E-Z-Z-A.com. Ingrezza.

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Speaker 7 Here to talk about Donald Trump's major legal troubles is Andrew Weissman, a former federal prosecutor, MSNBC legal contributor, and host of the truly excellent podcast, Prosecuting Donald Trump from MSNBC.

Speaker 7 Andrew, welcome back to the pod. Nice to be here.
All right. Thanks for doing this.
There's so much to talk about this week regarding all of Donald Trump's various legal challenges.

Speaker 7 The news is coming fast and furious, but I wanted to go through some of the big stories that all happened so you can help our listeners understand what's really happening and what it means for the former president's legal predicaments.

Speaker 7 And let's start with the report that ABC News published on Tuesday saying that Mark Meadows, Trump's last White House chief of staff, had been granted immunity by special counsel Jack Smith and that he had met repeatedly with Smith and testified in front of a grand jury.

Speaker 7 Now, I recognize that other outlets have yet to fully confirm the story. But if ABC News is correct, what do you think that means about Donald Trump?

Speaker 11 Yeah, so it's sort of interesting because this is the biggest story, but it's the one that's least confirmed.

Speaker 11 Because everything else, you know, it's happening in court, so we know a lot, not everything, but we know a lot about what's happening.

Speaker 11 So one of the pieces of corroboration here, which is interesting, is his

Speaker 11 Meadows' own counsel

Speaker 11 basically issued a statement saying this is essentially largely inaccurate,

Speaker 11 which, Dan, you probably know,

Speaker 11 both in my world and probably in your world, is basically a confirmation.

Speaker 11 Yes.

Speaker 7 You know, it's just means they got the number of times he met with Smith wrong.

Speaker 1 So funny you said that. It's a confirmation of the truth, yes.

Speaker 11 That's exactly what I was thinking. It's like when it said that he met with Smith three times, it was four times.
And when he said he was in the grand jury once, it was twice.

Speaker 11 I mean, so

Speaker 11 it's just, it was just notable that it wasn't a flat denial. So what does this mean?

Speaker 11 So if Mark Meadows, the chief of staff, to the former president of the United States, was granted immunity and has now gone in and spoken to Jack Smith and to a grand jury, could not be larger.

Speaker 11 And the reason is you just, just as a prosecutor, you are not going to grant immunity to somebody unless you have been given a very detailed proffer by

Speaker 11 the attorney for that person and often even a sort of informal meeting called a proffer session with the person. So essentially you're not buying a pig and a poke as we like to say here in New York.

Speaker 11 And so you know, it's just a big deal to decide to immunize somebody who could have their own significant exposure.

Speaker 11 And that means that you have to have made the evaluation that you could not otherwise prosecute them and that they have information that's so significant about people who you think are more culpable.

Speaker 11 And in this situation, that's one person, which is the point.

Speaker 1 Right.

Speaker 7 There's only one person indicted in this case, that's Donald Trump. So this is not something that could affect some other person.
He's obviously telling them something, if this is all true.

Speaker 11 Yes, exactly. I mean, it could affect, yeah, if it could affect somebody else, but it's not going to only affect that person.

Speaker 11 They have to be giving something up on the president.

Speaker 11 That's where the reporting has various pieces of information attributed to Mark Meadows. That's where the reporting could be wrong.
But presumably, Mark Meadows will join in

Speaker 11 a litany of people who told the former president after the election that he lost.

Speaker 11 And so, you know, there already are just, you know, a boatload of people like that, but having the chief of staff on board with having said the same thing would be useful.

Speaker 11 Just to be fair, he will be cross-examined with the statements from his book where he is all in

Speaker 11 on the

Speaker 11 fraud in the election. You know, he joins the Republicans who we all saw, you know, denigrating a reporter for even asking the question about that just just yesterday.

Speaker 11 But this is a huge development, if true.

Speaker 11 And

Speaker 11 in terms of dominoes falling, I mean, this is the biggest domino. The chief of staff, as you know, there's no one sort of closer,

Speaker 11 a sort of closer bodyman to the president of the United States than the chief of staff. So it could be huge.

Speaker 7 I want to move to Fulton County now, where over the course of the last week, we've seen three people who have worked in and around Donald Trump's legal team, Sidney Powell, Kenneth Chesborough, and Jenna Ellis plead guilty.

Speaker 7 And when Sidney Powell and Chesborough pled guilty, there was a lot of triumphalism on Twitter. We got them.
This is a terrible day for Trump. You and your podcast with Mary McCord

Speaker 7 had some caution for why that may not mean what it thinks it means.

Speaker 7 And I'm going to get to Jenna Ellis in a second, but help understand what happened there and why are you a little more cautious than all the other, all the non-lawyers on Twitter who are popping champagne bottles right now.

Speaker 1 Yep. So

Speaker 11 first for my kind of snarky line, which is like, it's hard to keep track of the number of Trump lawyers who are going to be witnesses against him, many of whom have now admitted their criminality and complicity

Speaker 11 in federal schemes. I mean, it's which, you know, I'm a lawyer.

Speaker 11 It's just unbelievable to me that

Speaker 11 they would participate in this. That's, you know, that's obviously we're not immune from being criminals, but it is fairly shocking.

Speaker 11 So, to answer your question, though, directly,

Speaker 11 with Sidney Powell and with Kennis Chesbrough, especially when we end up looking at the language that was used for the agreement with Jenna Ellis, they did not

Speaker 11 agree to, quote, fully cooperate, unquote, language that is in the Jenna Ellis agreement. They did not agree to give repeated statements to the Georgia prosecutors.

Speaker 11 They did not agree that they would meet and be interviewed repeatedly by Georgia prosecutors. What they did agree to is testify truthfully if called at a trial of any of the co-defendants.

Speaker 11 Well, Dan, you and I have an obligation to testify truthfully if we're called to the stand too, because we will be sworn under oath and we have to tell the truth.

Speaker 11 The difference is obviously their agreement is on the line if they were to be found to say something false, but we don't really know that they're fully cooperating. And

Speaker 11 maybe it helps to know what's going on in the back of my head. When I was a prosecutor, when you have a cooperating witness, let's say, Dan, you were the witness.

Speaker 11 Before we signed you up, I would be meeting with you for days, if not weeks, to debrief you about everything you knew, to be comfortable that you have been telling the truth, to go over relevant documents,

Speaker 11 and

Speaker 11 to be sure, okay, we could use you because we've debriefed you on everything you know and we're confident you're telling the truth. Then we would sign you up as a cooperating witness.

Speaker 11 And that just doesn't seem to be what happened here or the nature of the agreement that was reached between Chesbrow and Powell.

Speaker 11 Now, that's not to say that they may not ultimately be good, but I think it's just

Speaker 11 at the very least, it's premature to describe them as cooperating witnesses in the the way that you would for sort of a typical federal cooperator, or I actually think with respect to Jenna Ellis.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 7 Before we get to Jenna Ellis, why, if that is the case, why would Fonnie Willis cut these deals with them if it's not going to, if it's not going to deliver what we hope it might deliver?

Speaker 11 So one, that could cut the other way. I mean, it could be like you'd agree to a non-jail time plea disposition because they have given you something important.

Speaker 11 So to be clear, maybe that is what is happening, but we don't know that. And I'm, you know, I just didn't want to jump to that yet.
But I can give you a couple reasons why you might do this. One,

Speaker 11 you avoid a five-month trial where you lay out all the evidence to people who you think are more culpable. The person who goes second or third has a real advantage.

Speaker 11 So, if you're keeping your eye on the prize and you think Donald Trump is your main person here, avoiding laying out all that proof is a good thing.

Speaker 11 Two, you avoid the risk, even if you think you have a really strong case, there's always the risk of either an acquittal or a hung jury. It only takes one juror to have a hung jury.

Speaker 11 And just to be clear, if there was a hung jury here, I personally think the election would be over in many ways because that will certainly be touted by Donald Trump and his allies as a huge loss.

Speaker 11 A hung jury is typically viewed as a loss to the government and a win to the defense.

Speaker 11 So it avoids all of those risks and you have a sure,

Speaker 11 you know, a sure conviction. And there is the

Speaker 11 sense of momentum because if you do look at

Speaker 11 sort of Powell and she pled to misdemeanors, but then you had Chesbrow, he pled to a felony. Then you have Jenna Ellis and she pled to a felony, but she had a much more fulsome cooperation provision.

Speaker 11 So even though they're all no jail time, you do get the sense of at least it is escalating. It's going in the right direction.

Speaker 11 It's not getting weaker over time.

Speaker 11 The deals are getting stronger for the government.

Speaker 7 Does it put pressure on potentially other people to cut deals if they feel like they could be the last one? You don't want to be the last one standing.

Speaker 1 Absolutely.

Speaker 11 Absolutely.

Speaker 11 You know, again,

Speaker 11 we'll turn to Jenna Ellis, but if you look at the pressure, Jenna Ellis, I viewed that plea as like a heat-seeking missile directed at Rudy Giuliani.

Speaker 11 I mean, she pled to aiding and abetting, and it was

Speaker 11 two co-defendants, one of whom was Rudy.

Speaker 11 So that was just direct aim, and that is how you do these cases, which is, you know, Fonnie Willis had a great strategy and has a great strategy of indicting big.

Speaker 11 And when you indict big, you sort of try to roll up and have this domino effect and a sense of momentum. and to have defendants worried about the proof getting stronger and the deals getting worse.

Speaker 11 So there's an idea of the, you know, come in now and strike the best deal you can.

Speaker 7 Let's get to Jen Ellis because as you point out, she has a different agreement, a stronger agreement. So how is it different? And what is the reason?

Speaker 7 Do you think the reason she took that deal was because of the pressure of these previous ones or is there potentially a stronger case against her or a stiffer penalty that she's trying to avoid

Speaker 11 first let me just deal with why her agreement's different.

Speaker 1 Of course. Yeah, yeah, please.
So

Speaker 11 similar in that she pleads to a felony like Chesbrow. So, you know, it's different than Sidney Powell, who pled to misdemeanors.

Speaker 11 She, though, agreed to, quote, fully cooperate, unquote. She agreed to meet and be prepared by and give interviews repeatedly to the Georgia prosecutors.

Speaker 11 I think those are the two key things.

Speaker 11 And

Speaker 11 obviously, she also has to testify truthfully at a trial, but she'll have been fully prepared.

Speaker 11 And she also has agreed to give full statements, not just that one statement, but to give repeated ones if necessary.

Speaker 11 So that looks so much like what a federal cooperation agreement looks like. So there's just no way for my cynical or what I would say is,

Speaker 1 you know, just a little worried about the others. Skeptical, skeptical.

Speaker 11 Yeah, exactly. And there's just no way to be skeptical about her.

Speaker 11 I i mean you know cooperatives can sometimes not turn out but there's no question that at this point she is um she is signed on to be a full cooperator uh she did give a statement to the court which in which is much more typical in federal court and state court it's not necessary um i i would caution there was something unusual about her statement which her statement basically

Speaker 11 kind of said,

Speaker 11 I made a mistake as opposed to I did something intentionally. She She did say, if I knew then what I know now,

Speaker 11 I wouldn't have represented the former president. Well, you know, that might all be true and well, but that's actually not the standard for a criminal case.

Speaker 11 A criminal case, you have to, it's not by mistake. You have to do something intentionally, or it's not a crime at all.
So she obviously didn't say that's all she did.

Speaker 11 So it's not totally inconsistent, but it certainly

Speaker 11 doesn't suggest a complete acceptance of responsibility

Speaker 11 by her in her statement.

Speaker 11 But she did cry and she seemed

Speaker 11 upset and remorseful.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 11 all of that remains to be seen.

Speaker 11 Why she did it,

Speaker 11 not clear.

Speaker 11 Just remember, she is somebody who people had talked about being one of the more likely people to plead and to resolve because she had been talking about, you know, sort of not sort of really divorcing herself from the sort of MAGA movement, she did have this proceeding against her in connection with her bar license.

Speaker 11 And so there was some sense that she, for whatever reason,

Speaker 11 either because she had a pang of conscience or she just realized,

Speaker 11 as we like to say when I was a prosecutor, she was sorry she got caught.

Speaker 11 I don't know which of the two it is, but

Speaker 11 she does seem to be doing the right thing at this point. And as we used to say, she's now on Team America.

Speaker 11 Or the other way, just to give you as many

Speaker 11 prosecutorial phrases, she's on the other side. She wants to be on the other side of the V, meaning in the United States versus

Speaker 11 defendant, she wants to be on the left side, not the right side.

Speaker 7 All of these folks are thought to be involved in or even unindicted co-conspirators in the federal January 6th case.

Speaker 7 Do their

Speaker 7 various stages of cooperation deals where they're pleading guilty in the Fulton County case affect how they could participate or could be compelled to participate in the, in the federal case?

Speaker 7 Like, can they, if they're required, if they're required to testify truthfully, is that only count for Fulton County? Can they plead the fifth in Fulton County?

Speaker 7 Can they plead the fifth if they were to lie or plead the fifth in federal? Does that affect their probation deal? Or how does it just, how does that all interact?

Speaker 11 Yeah, so that is just the perfect question because

Speaker 11 it's not usual to have somebody, a defendant, who is charged in both federal and state court, but from time to time it happens.

Speaker 11 And the most unusual thing, whether you ask, you know, I've been a prosecutor and a defense lawyer.

Speaker 11 If you ask any prosecutor or defense lawyer, what is the most unusual thing that they've seen in connection with Powell, Chesbrow, and Ellis, it's that there isn't what's called a global deal.

Speaker 11 The idea that you would just have an agreement with one jurisdiction when you know you're facing facing liability in another

Speaker 11 makes no sense. And let me just this is why.

Speaker 11 So, Jenna Ellis, let's say there's a trial and she is required by her agreement to testify, and she's required by her agreement in state court to testify truthfully.

Speaker 11 So, she hops on the stand in Georgia and she testifies and she says things that implicates her in crimes that could be charged federally, not just the state state crimes that she has a deal on.

Speaker 11 Everything that she says, all of those statements are admissions that can be used by federal prosecutors.

Speaker 11 So let's say Jack Smith thinks that the deal with Sidney Powell is outrageous, that she's way too culpable to have gotten a misdemeanor offense. And let's assume he makes that judgment.

Speaker 11 Well, if she now testifies, her testimony is something that can be used against her. If she takes the fifth in state court,

Speaker 11 she obviously won't hurt herself in terms of making statements that could be used in the federal case, but she will be in breach of her agreement because her agreement is that she will testify truthfully.

Speaker 11 That's what the Georgia prosecutors bought with this deal, which was her truthful testimony at any trial of any co-defendant. So

Speaker 11 they're somewhat in a jam if that were to happen. Now, the only thing I could think of as to sort of why this is happening is that, one, there's no coordination at the prosecutorial level.

Speaker 11 And two,

Speaker 11 it doesn't look like the state cases are going to happen anytime soon. In other words,

Speaker 11 there was a trial that was scheduled for the end of October with Powell and Chesbrow. That's now off.
There is no other scheduled date. So

Speaker 11 this conundrum of what do you do when the trial comes and you have to testify truthfully is one that the can is kicked very far down the road.

Speaker 11 And if you are gambling, you may think, well, if Donald Trump or an ally wins the presidency, I don't have to worry about those federal cases anyway because they're going away.

Speaker 11 The Donald Trump cases are going away. Any case against Sidney Powell or Kenneth Chesbrough

Speaker 11 are going away. So I don't have to worry about this conundrum because the Justice Department will be in control of people who don't want to see that happen.
I worked on the Mueller investigation.

Speaker 11 I'm very aware of Donald Trump pardoned every single person who we indicted and convicted, except the people who cooperated.

Speaker 11 So Michael Cohen and Rick Gates, they didn't get pardons, but everybody else down to Alex Vanderzwan, a name that I'm not sure rings any bells to you, but I mean, basically,

Speaker 11 you know, this was the then president just sort of was like, I'm going to eradicate all of this. Everyone.

Speaker 7 Yep.

Speaker 7 Let's move quickly to the criminal fraud trial. I know you've been in attendance multiple times, the one there in Manhattan.

Speaker 7 Yesterday on Wednesday was quite a scene where Donald Trump testified and then immediately fined $10,000, then stormed out of court. You know, this is now, Donald Trump's now been fined $15,000.

Speaker 7 I know you don't like the term gag order.

Speaker 7 It's the only term I know.

Speaker 1 It's fine. It's fine.
I've been beaten down.

Speaker 7 Yes, I know it's not technically a gag order, but he's been fined $15,000 for saying things the court has told him not to say.

Speaker 7 $15,000, even if Donald Trump really, really inflates his assets, as the court has found him doing, $15,000 doesn't seem like a lot of money to him. What was your reaction to what happened yesterday?

Speaker 7 And what tools does the court have to actually make him adhere to the rules they're trying to set in place?

Speaker 11 So,

Speaker 11 obviously, greater fines. Two, you can

Speaker 11 say

Speaker 11 that any

Speaker 11 truth social posts or social media posts have to be reviewed by counsel.

Speaker 11 Three, you can say you can't do any truth social or any other media posts that are in any way related to the case or the cases that you're on.

Speaker 11 They have to just be political speech. As I like to say, you can run for president and actually not obstruct justice.

Speaker 11 I know I'm going out on time.

Speaker 11 And obviously, elephant in the room

Speaker 11 is he can go to jail

Speaker 11 or house arrest. I mean, there are restrictions on his liberty that you can have.

Speaker 11 I am very worried that the message of the $10,000 is going to be counterproductive because I think Donald Trump is extremely savvy about sort of figuring out power dynamics and

Speaker 11 sort of seeing what judges are willing to do and not willing to do. Just remember here, the judge found that he directly violated the order, that he was referring to his law clerk.

Speaker 11 that he lied on the stand where he had a short hearing about it. So he also found that

Speaker 11 at that point? Yes.

Speaker 11 And said, you know, I was referring to to michael cohen which made no sense and that's what the judge found um it seemed totally logical to me that that's what he he would say so i think that um

Speaker 11 understanding that donald trump is sort of egging the judge on and he sort of wants to play the victim i but i feel like you

Speaker 11 um i just don't know think in my opinion i don't think it was a strong enough sanction um if you're really worried as the judge i think correctly is, is worried about violence because of Donald Trump's words.

Speaker 11 Again, just to be clear, this is not just a First Amendment restriction for no reason. This is because

Speaker 11 it just cut back to January 6th. This is the concern about words leading to violent actions.

Speaker 7 Last question for you.

Speaker 7 As we look at the scope of all of these trials,

Speaker 7 particularly the criminal ones, what do you think the odds are right now that we will have a resolution in one of them?

Speaker 7 I guess most likely the January 6th federal trial as it relates to Trump before the election.

Speaker 11 Extremely good.

Speaker 1 You think we will?

Speaker 11 Yes. I think the March 4th trial,

Speaker 11 if it's up to Judge Chuck in that March 4th trial, as she has said, I'm not. saying anything she hasn't said, that trial is going forward.

Speaker 11 When they were arguing the gag order, I've been beaten to say that now. Yes.
Thanks. So

Speaker 11 that she has said that case is going forward. The only thing that could curtail it is this presidential immunity motion that Donald Trump has made.

Speaker 11 I don't think it's a terribly strong motion, but it is one that could go to the Supreme Court.

Speaker 11 So if it does that, there could be a delay in the trial because the Supreme Court may stay the case while it decides that issue. I think that's the biggest wildcard.
But I think absent that,

Speaker 11 I think that case is going to go to trial and there will be a resolution before the general election. I'm less confident.
Obviously, in Georgia, I don't think that's the case.

Speaker 11 I don't think it's the case in New York.

Speaker 11 There will be an argument, I think it's November 1st in the Florida case about the trial date and the schedule there.

Speaker 11 I think that one's a little harder to tell just because I'm not as confident that that judge is as committed to the trial date. And obviously

Speaker 11 the longer you wait on that, you really are going to start running up into significant issues in terms of how to schedule it.

Speaker 11 But I think that's why the March date with that one caveat I think is in stone.

Speaker 7 That is great to hear. Andrew, thank you so much for joining us.

Speaker 7 Everyone, check out Prosecuting Donald Trump is an excellent podcast to follow all the ins and outs of Donald Trump's various legal challenges and cases.

Speaker 11 Thank you so much. Thanks, Tim.

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Speaker 1 So even though Donald Trump's co-defendants keep flipping on him, he's still on a glide path to the Republican nomination because I guess Republican voters would rather risk having a convicted felon at the top of their ticket than take a chance on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley or any of the rest of them.

Speaker 1 And from a purely political standpoint, they may not be wrong.

Speaker 1 New polling from one of the big pro-Biden super PACs surveyed 3,000 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 1,000 voters in each state. That's a big sample.

Speaker 1 And found that if the election were held today, Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be tied at 50%,

Speaker 1 exactly 50% in a two-candidate race across those three swing states. They also dug into a group of up-for-grabs voters in those states who have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump.

Speaker 1 These are the so-called double haters. And this poll found that Trump is slightly ahead with that group by three points, 51 to 48.
Let's start with the top line number.

Speaker 1 A tied race in these three battleground states is actually as good or better for Biden than some of his recent national polls.

Speaker 1 And that has been a trend I've noticed in some of these state polls recently. Why do you think that is? What's going on there?

Speaker 7 Just so people understand why it's better is that the country as a whole is more Democratic than the battleground states, which is why Biden can win the popular vote by several points and then win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona by a point or two points.

Speaker 7 And so the opposite's happening. Trump's actually leading in the national polls, something Biden led in the entire time in 2020, but Biden is doing a few points better in the Battleground states.

Speaker 7 And I think the reason for that is that the race is more engaged in those states than it is in the rest of the country.

Speaker 7 Like I've said this before on this podcast, I think a lot of people have not yet fully comprehended the fact that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.

Speaker 7 And frankly, that Joe Biden's going to be the Democratic nominee. They just, that, that, they have not been paying a lick of attention to politics for a couple of years now.

Speaker 7 And the Battleground states where there was

Speaker 7 tens of millions of dollars of advertising spent in 2022, they're just people are just more dialed into what the race is going to look like. And we saw this dynamic.

Speaker 7 Democrats did better in the states where the races were more engaged, i.e., those battleground states that had big Senate governors races, than in other non-competitive states like California, New York, or more Republican states like in the South.

Speaker 1 Yeah. So we're going to be hearing a lot about the double haters over the next year.
Hillary lost them in 2016. Biden won them in 2020.

Speaker 1 And now, at least in this poll, Biden is losing them by a few points, but statistically probably tied. Who are these voters? What do we know about them?

Speaker 1 And what do you think Biden can do to win them over?

Speaker 7 At least in this poll, they are a little more Republican than the overall electorate. They are a little more male than the overall electorate.

Speaker 7 And they're more college educated than the overall elected.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 7 the fact that Trump did so overwhelmingly well with these quote-unquote double haters was why something no one expected.

Speaker 7 The assumption was going into the election in 2016 that they would, Hillary and Trump would basically split them.

Speaker 7 That's usually how that has worked in the past, although there had never been a race with such a large pool of double haters.

Speaker 7 Biden did better amongst them. And if they are tied in this Unite the Country, the Democrat, the Super PAC that did this polling points out that this

Speaker 7 Trump doing at this level with these voters means he'd win the very close battleground states is their sort of assumption.

Speaker 7 by not very much but enough because they were so close last time these people are not uniform in who they are or what they think and you're going to have to do two things sort of somewhat simultaneously and it's going to be a little bit targeted depending on various groups in here part of it is you're just going to have simply strengthen biden right joe biden is underperforming across the board with a whole bunch of groups of voters people on issues, on character traits, and we're going to have to remind people of not just like sort of what he's accomplished, but who he is.

Speaker 7 And I think particular strength, right? Cause I think one thing that's happening is the world seems incredibly chaotic. Biden seems old and to some voters and I think unfairly so weak.

Speaker 7 And so you're going to have to demonstrate strength. The other thing we have to do is remind people

Speaker 7 what a fucking nut job Trump is and how dangerous he is and how incompetent he can be and how chaotic he can be. Cause people are not paying attention to that.

Speaker 7 They are not, they have not seen Trump speak. They don't, these voters don't watch Fox News.
They're not consuming Breitbart. They're not listening to Pod Save America.

Speaker 7 They're just not encountering, frankly, Biden or Trump. And so they're kind of hearing some stuff that things don't seem great right now.
Biden said they'd be great. And maybe he's too old.

Speaker 7 And Trump, they haven't really thought about at all. They probably know he's involved in some crimes.
Maybe they don't care about that that much.

Speaker 7 And they think back to the fact that the economy seemed pretty damn good before the pandemic started and doesn't feel as good now.

Speaker 7 And so I think part of this is just a lot of for a lot of these voters, we're just going to have to stick Trump's craziness in their face for the next year and a half, make them focus on the dangers of Trump and put that in contrast and do a little bit to strengthen Biden to make him a better vehicle for their concern about Trump.

Speaker 1 And this is why the liberal laments that you hear a lot online, that we heard a lot in 2016, and I think it was more warranted in 2016, of like, do not platform Trump. Stop platforming Trump.

Speaker 1 No, no, no, do platform Trump. We need more people in this country to be reminded of what he's like because when they get that reminder, they do not like him.
They vote against this.

Speaker 1 Again, this is the MAGA candidates in the midterms that lost.

Speaker 1 It was because the race was engaged in these states and those voters were shown a lot of ads and a lot of like election-denying MAGA extremism shit. And they voted the other way.

Speaker 7 Trump campaigned in those states, was on their local news. Right now,

Speaker 7 most Americans are not seeing Donald Trump. Many of them do not, but you hear this in focus groups all the time.

Speaker 7 A lot of people, people who voted for Biden in 20 and maybe are disenchanted with the way things are going right now, they think Trump's going to be in prison, not on the ballot.

Speaker 7 And some of them think Biden's, or think Biden's not going to run. It is.
Right.

Speaker 1 There's a lot of people. Yeah.

Speaker 1 A lot of people would be very surprised to learn that the most likely matchup is Biden and Trump. And it's like a 95% likelihood.

Speaker 1 I know. And a lot of those people.
It's not even a lot like a lot of those people think that both of them are going to be the nominee.

Speaker 1 A lot of people think that neither of them are going to be the nominee of the party. I found this section pretty interesting in the in the memo about these double haters.

Speaker 1 It says, despite being more aligned with Republican values, they express fear about Trump and about the future of American democracy.

Speaker 1 Their hesitancy toward Trump is rooted in various aspects such as his role in leading a coup, multiple indictments, and praise for the Chinese dictator.

Speaker 1 So one thing that worries me about this group of people is the existence of no labels because it feels like these are exactly the kind of voters who would support a no labels labels candidate they are more republican they are more male they are maybe a little more centrist they don't like trump because he's uh you know tried to commit the coup they don't maybe want a convicted felon but they are republican they have republican viewpoints and so if you give them a larry hogan a john huntsman to land on you could see them choosing that uh that candidate which really worries me i mean there was some no labels polling that leaked out via political playbook this week which no labels tested biden trump head to head Biden-Trump head to head with a no labels candidate with a Democrat, like a Joe Manchin or Kirsten, a generic Democrat, but think in your head like a Manchin or Sinema type of ticket, and a no labels candidacy with a Republican type of ticket.

Speaker 7 And the Republican one significantly outperformed the Democratic one. It was the, it was much more devastating to Biden's chances.

Speaker 7 And this is obvious because these are many cases, Republicans who don't like Trump, many of them bit the bullet and voted for Biden in 2020 and are trying to figure out what to do this time.

Speaker 7 And they haven't gone all the way back to Trump, but they're not sticking with Biden as of yet either.

Speaker 1 Yeah. And again, like, like you said, there's different groups of double haters, right?

Speaker 1 And this sample just, you know, in the statistics that you read is just like, you know, the majority of them are this, or they tend to be disproportionately male Republican.

Speaker 1 But there's probably also a group that we've talked about of less college educated voters who are more in tune with the economy and who are struggling and are worried about costs more.

Speaker 1 There's probably some progressive voters and younger voters who don't like Biden and Trump because they think neither are progressive enough, right?

Speaker 1 And they're thinking about a Cornell West or whatever else, or maybe not voting at all.

Speaker 1 So there are different groups of these, but I think the group that tends to be more Republican, more male, and cares more about

Speaker 1 democracy and Trump's indictments, these are more of the centrist Republicans that I think this is like the, you know, who the like the Lincoln project is going after, and like the Republican, Sarah Longwell's report effectively, Sarah Longwell's Republican accountability Project and the bulwarker.

Speaker 1 Like, that's, I think that's those voters. And I, I, you know, I really worry about that.

Speaker 7 I mean, it is a, it's a, as you said, it's, there's when Donald Trump and Joe Biden both have approval ratings that are around 40%

Speaker 7 and are bleeding a significant part of their own party, and Biden's actually bleeding more of his own party, you're going to end up with a wide swath of voters who fit that category and you need strategies for the different specific strategies for the different elements of it.

Speaker 1 Well, in case any of you were losing sleep over Joe Biden's re-election, don't worry. Dean Phillips is here to save the day.
The Mike Johnson of Democrats.

Speaker 1 I have that. I said, you might be wondering, who's Dean Phillips? I said, isn't he the guy they just selected Speaker? No, that's Mike Johnson.

Speaker 1 Dean Phillips is the Mike Johnson running against Joe Biden in the Democratic primary.

Speaker 1 He's a little-known congressman looking for a big promotion. Mike Johnson got his.
Now Dean Phillips is looking for his.

Speaker 1 The 54-year-old three-term Minnesota Democrat will be announcing his presidential campaign in New Hampshire on Friday. That is the last day to get on the ballot in that state.

Speaker 1 There was already a Dean Phillips for president bus spotted in Ohio this week.

Speaker 1 What do you think, Dan? How scared should Joe Biden be of Dean Phillips?

Speaker 7 It's a hard question to answer, John. There is clearly, in all the polling, a significant number of Democrats who would be very open to an alternative to Joe Biden.

Speaker 7 And I think even with that case, if any significant Democrat like Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro or Raphael Warnock or Gavin Newsom were to run, they would be a significant underdog to the incumbent Democratic president of the United States.

Speaker 7 Dean Phillips

Speaker 7 is the longest of long shots for several reasons.

Speaker 7 No one knows who he is, but also he is a centrist, multi-millionaire congressman who doesn't seem to me, at least at this point, and we'll see what he says on the campaign trail, but does not seem to me to be a likely vessel for whatever anti-Biden sentiment.

Speaker 7 sits out there in the party, whether they think it's not clear he's more electable than Biden. He's not an obvious like next, you know, generational candidate, you know, call for the next generation.

Speaker 7 If you're dissatisfied with Biden because he's not left enough or not progressive enough, Dean Phillips is not your guy.

Speaker 7 It just is not clear what itched Dean Phillips scratches, which may be sort of the story of his life, I guess.

Speaker 1 Was that me? I don't know.

Speaker 1 No, what I mean. He's also getting, he has a primary challenge now,

Speaker 1 partly because he's done this in his house race. So look, it's also, he faces a few obstacles here.

Speaker 1 A few. uh

Speaker 1 just a few few other obstacles sorry um he's he's already too late for nevada uh to qualify in nevada that that deadline has passed so he's not getting any delegates out of that he's not getting any delegates out of new hampshire because uh there are no delegates There are no delegates in New Hampshire because of the DNC rules, because South Carolina is going first, and New Hampshire is still saying that they want to go first, so they're going to strip them of the delegates.

Speaker 1 So Biden is not competing in New Hampshire.

Speaker 1 Now, of course, Dean Phillips could win New Hampshire, partly because Biden's not competing, and I think they're just trying to do a write-in campaign for Biden there.

Speaker 7 Has he decided not to be on the ballot? I meant to ask this before we started recording, but.

Speaker 1 Has Joe Biden decided not to be on the ballot? I believe so. Yes.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 Because I think that they said that that's the I think the campaign said, no, we're not going to be on the ballot because that's the rules.

Speaker 1 And we would like to compete in New Hampshire, but the Democratic Party rules have said that

Speaker 1 they've made a decision that South Carolina is go first and that we can't compete in New Hampshire.

Speaker 1 So Dean Phillips is sort of just going around that and probably, I guess, is going to try to embarrass Joe Biden in New Hampshire. But maybe Marianne Williamson, I guess.

Speaker 1 The only other who I assume is on the ballot in New Hampshire. Yeah.

Speaker 1 But, like you said, I know you're like, Dean Phillips is probably someone who, if they knew him, maybe those double hater voters we were just talking about would like.

Speaker 1 But again, this is a Democratic primary. And you're right, like a multi-millionaire moderate unknown in a Democratic primary is

Speaker 1 not maybe the best fit right now for the party. I don't know.

Speaker 7 I just think while a lot of Democratic voters will tell pollsters that they would like another option than Biden, it is just worth noting we should remind ourselves that for most of this year, Joe Biden's approval rating among Democrats has been exactly the same or a point or two higher than Donald Trump's approval rating among Republicans.

Speaker 7 And Donald Trump is walking away with that primary. So this idea that Biden is somehow extremely vulnerable to anyone, let alone Dean Phillips, is not yet borne out at the point.

Speaker 7 It's really hard to beat someone who has a 77, 78, 79% approval rating among the people who are going to decide the election.

Speaker 1 How would you handle the Dean Phillips candidacy if you were on the Biden campaign?

Speaker 1 I think the White House was asked, they put out a statement that

Speaker 1 mentioning how he's almost completely supportive of Biden, almost because he's obviously writing against him, but he has like voted with Biden nearly 100% of the time.

Speaker 1 So I think they're trying to say, well, he has supported the president up until now.

Speaker 1 He's, he has all the president's positions, has supported all the presidents, and we don't know why he's running, basically, seems to be the message. What do you think about that?

Speaker 7 That's fine.

Speaker 7 Sure. I think

Speaker 7 a written statement delivered in response to reporter queries is not like a sign of some huge strategic calculation on their part. My guess is the plan is to largely ignore him.
We should say this.

Speaker 7 Dean Phillips has every right to run. We said this throughout the year as everyone was saying,

Speaker 7 you know, the DNC's rigging the primary. Why is anyone running? Our view always was, if someone wants to run, that's their,

Speaker 7 they have the opportunity to do it. If they think they can make a case to win, they should do it.
Dean Phillips has chosen that path.

Speaker 7 We think he's a long shot, but if he wants to do it, he should do it. And there shouldn't be any effort to prevent him from making his case to voters.

Speaker 7 So I think the White House is doing the right thing.

Speaker 1 Well, so speaking of the DNC, they've already formally endorsed Biden and announced that they won't be holding any primary debates.

Speaker 1 That's when it was just Biden, Marion Williamson, and RFK Jr., who's now running as an independent.

Speaker 1 Do you think the DNC can get away with not holding any debates now that Dean Phillips is entering the race?

Speaker 7 I assume they're not going to hold any debates, and I assume they're going to get away with it.

Speaker 1 I'm not sure.

Speaker 7 What is the public pressure from the reason why it wasn't an issue with Marion Williamson?

Speaker 1 All the Deaniacs, the Deaniacs.

Speaker 7 Exactly, right? If obviously, if for some reason our assessment is incorrect, which is probably likely at this point, given our recent track record,

Speaker 7 and there's a massive political movement around Dean Phillips, much as there was around Howard Dean, to cite your

Speaker 7 very dated reference, then that could change. But as of right now, I just, the DNC is intertwined directly in the Biden campaign.

Speaker 7 They've been operating for a year as if there would be no true primary. Dean Phillips is a legitimate person.

Speaker 7 He is a Democratic member of Congress who was in the Democratic leadership until he resigned that position position to consider this presidential race.

Speaker 7 And so he is not the same thing as Marion Williamson or someone like R.F.K. Jr., who was running for the Democratic nomination under the encouragement and advice of people like Steve Bannon.

Speaker 7 But

Speaker 7 I don't see that that is going to be enough to force the DNC to change their approach. If he starts to get real support,

Speaker 7 that could change. But as of right now, I think it is we're all heading in the same direction, which is prepping for a Biden-Trump general election.

Speaker 1 Although I wonder, yeah, if he starts to get real support or he starts to get fake support. And by that, I mean people are going to look at this as an opportunity to cause trouble.

Speaker 1 And the Steve Bannons, the people on the right, the Elon Musk, the tech bros, like lefty progressives, Cornell West people, you know, like you can see a number of people being like, why is the DNC rigging the primary?

Speaker 1 Now, this is a congressman from Minnesota, even if they don't actually like Dean Phillips. This is a congressman from Minnesota.
And Joe Biden's refusing to debate him. Why can't Joe Biden debate him?

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 that must mean that Joe Biden's afraid of debating Donald Trump.

Speaker 7 And why is he afraid to to debate so i i could see a little i said i could see people causing trouble over oh yeah for sure this is going to be and this is the the ultimate the question that dean phillips is going to ask have to ask himself is

Speaker 7 given the long odds of success how much of what he says and does can end up being weaponized against joe biden to affect that race on the margins like i said he has a right to do it He should run the race he wants to run.

Speaker 7 He should give it a shot. He should follow all the rules by getting on the ballot and then making his case.

Speaker 7 But the people who are applauding Dean Phillips' entry in this race are going to be the people who want to defeat Joe Biden in November, who work for Republicans or on Fox News, et cetera.

Speaker 1 So you don't think we will see Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, Marion Williamson debate?

Speaker 7 Are we hosting one?

Speaker 1 Sure.

Speaker 1 No, I don't.

Speaker 1 What? Yeah.

Speaker 1 Our door's always open.

Speaker 7 We are not.

Speaker 1 Come on.

Speaker 7 I would be surprised to see that, John. That's what I was.
I'm not making any predictions, but I would be surprised.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I think it's a good trial run for Joe Biden. We know how first-term presidents, the first debate, it's always pretty tricky.

Speaker 1 We lived through that with Barack Obama, didn't do too well against our friend Mitt Romney in that first debate.

Speaker 1 Maybe this would be good practice for Joe Biden to take on Dean Phillips and Marion Williamson.

Speaker 7 Your friend.

Speaker 1 My friend Mary Williams. Yeah, they were.
Your friend Mitt Romney. Your friend Mitt Romney.
Oh, my friend Mitt Romney. Just to be clear, let's say that.

Speaker 1 I still thought you met my friend Marion Williamson who I have interviewed here. Yes.

Speaker 1 yes. Yes, you have.
Just keep in mind, I have interviewed Marion Williamson. All right.
So, Dean Phillips, not a problem, but we are sponsoring a primary debate. Just get that all squared away.

Speaker 1 Mike Johnson, also, if you want to come on, great.

Speaker 1 We're opening up Pods Have Mary to all kinds of people. Everyone, have a great weekend.
That's our show for today. What do we got to tell everyone? We're going to be in, where are we going?

Speaker 1 We're going to be in Louisville Saturday night. We are.
For a show.

Speaker 1 You can still get tickets to that that show if you're going to be in Louisville. Just go to Cricut.com, find some tickets there.

Speaker 1 We're going to be in Cleveland Sunday night, and you're going to hear both of those pods next week. So a lot of podcasting.
And

Speaker 1 Dan, I guess I'll see you in Louisville or Indianapolis. Is that where we're flying?

Speaker 7 I'm going straight to Louisville.

Speaker 1 Oh, good for you. Good for you.
Well, it's not straight.

Speaker 7 There's several legs to that flight, but

Speaker 7 eventually we'll land on a plane in Louisville.

Speaker 1 This is one of the more challenging trips. Just wait till our five and a half hour drive from Louisville to Cleveland.
That's going to be fun.

Speaker 7 Cannot wait for the discussion over where we're going to stop for lunch.

Speaker 1 That's going to be, we've got to start that weekend in the car. Yeah, well, I love it's already got one in mind, I'm sure.
All right, everyone. Have a great weekend, and we'll talk to you soon.

Speaker 7 Bye. Bye, everyone.

Speaker 1 Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producers are Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
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