Did Republicans Just Lose the House?

1h 16m
In the middle of the night, the House narrowly passes Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," a witch's brew of tax cuts for the wealthiest and benefit cuts for the neediest, sending it on to the Senate. Jon and Dan talk about what Democrats can do to stop the bill—and the upside of Republicans passing something so massively unpopular, Trump's "white genocide" show-and-tell for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and the damning new data showing why Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election. Then, Dan talks with Rep. LaMonica McIver about getting slapped with criminal charges by Trump's Justice Department, and what it means for the executive branch to be targeting legislators for doing their job.

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Runtime: 1h 16m

Transcript

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Speaker 2 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau.
I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

Speaker 2 On today's show, we'll talk about the big billionaire welfare bill that just passed the House, Trump turning his meeting with South Africa's president into a white genocide media presentation, the most corrupt dinner in presidential history that's happening Thursday night, and brand new data that finally offers some definitive conclusions about why Democrats came up short in 2024 and who the party has to win back in 2026 and 2028 and beyond.

Speaker 2 Then Dan talks to New Jersey Representative LaMonica McIver about the Trump administration charging her with two felonies while she was conducting congressional oversight at an immigration detention facility.

Speaker 2 But let's start briefly with the deeply upsetting news on Wednesday night that two staffers at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, a couple who were just days away from getting engaged, were shot at close range and killed in an anti-Semitic attack outside an event at the Capitol Jewish Museum.

Speaker 2 The gunman, born and raised in Chicago, shouted, Free Palestine and posted a manifesto on Twitter titled, Escalate for Gaza, Bring the War Home. He has now been charged.

Speaker 2 The killings were universally condemned by elected officials and activists across the political spectrum.

Speaker 2 Trump posted his condolences and said that, quote, hatred and radicalism have no place in the USA.

Speaker 2 Though some on the right, like Stephen Miller, White House aide, called it an example of a, quote, growing cancer of far-left domestic terrorism.

Speaker 2 And here's what Republican Congressman Randy Fine said about Gaza when asked about the shootings on Fox.

Speaker 7 The fact of the matter is the Palestinian cause is an evil one. The only end of the conflict is complete and total surrender by those who support Muslim terror.

Speaker 7 In World War II, we did not negotiate a surrender with the Nazis. We did not negotiate a surrender with the Japanese.
We nuked the Japanese twice in order to get unconditional surrender.

Speaker 7 That needs to be the same here.

Speaker 2 Jesus Christ.

Speaker 2 So there's still information coming in about the killings since it's early, but what do you think the danger is in this moment beyond some of the gross and offensive takes we have read on the internet and seen on Fox?

Speaker 3 I mean, as you pointed out, it's a deeply disturbing, horrific example of violent anti-Semitism in this country. And it's what we have to unite to stop in this country.

Speaker 3 But what is scary scary about it in this moment with this president in the White House is that it is things like this, these sensational, emotionally evocative, violent events that authoritarians and fascists latch onto to use as a pretense for a broad-based oppression or targeting of a certain population.

Speaker 3 So you can easily, you can see that it is inherent in the language that Stephen Miller used that you quoted, that this can be used as a way to go after, as the Trump administration has, frankly, already been doing, the larger Palestinian rights movement in this country, the larger,

Speaker 3 almost entirely non-violent, peaceful Palestinian rights movement in this country, as a way to go after

Speaker 3 foreign students with their visas, to target universities, to target organizations, to suppress people's freedom of speech and their freedom of assembly.

Speaker 3 And so that is what it, like, this is, this is sort of thing you can easily see Trump and his minions latching onto in a very dangerous way.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, anti-Semitism and anti-Semitic attacks have been on the rise for the last decade, especially since October 7th, not just from the extreme left, like in this instance, but from the far right as well.

Speaker 2 It's also true that people who commit political violence almost always hurt the cause that they purport to care about.

Speaker 2 That's certainly true for those of us who believe the massacre of innocent civilians in Gaza is not the answer to the massacre of innocent civilians in Israel on October 7th.

Speaker 2 Yair Rosenberg wrote a piece in The Atlantic about the killings and had a good line.

Speaker 2 I thought, neither Palestine nor Israel will ever truly be free until their societies are liberated from megalomaniacal men who perpetrate demonic acts in their name.

Speaker 2 But as you said, aside from all that, the administration has been cynically exploiting anti-Semitism to further their own authoritarian project.

Speaker 2 And as you said, targeting sort of the pro-Palestinian movement nationwide, but also just anyone who disagrees with them, whether it's about Gaza or not, about any other issue.

Speaker 2 And so it's, you know, it's universities, and sometimes it's about protests, sometimes it's not about the protests. Sometimes it's protests about Gaza, sometimes it's other protests.

Speaker 2 It's whatever the protest is of the moment. They just don't want people who disagree with the administration to have the freedom to speak out and to organize in this country.

Speaker 2 And that is becoming very clear.

Speaker 2 It was clear today when the Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Harvard revoking their student exchange and visitor program certification, which means that, to quote DHS in the letter, Harvard can no longer enroll foreign students and existing foreign students must transfer or lose their legal status.

Speaker 2 There are 6,800 international students at Harvard. That is roughly 27% of the student body.
And imagine being one of those students right now.

Speaker 2 You have to, what, transfer schools or lose your or worried about losing your legal status.

Speaker 2 Now, there's a judge in California who issued an injunction on the administration's attempt to remove legal status from international students, and it's a nationwide injunction.

Speaker 2 So, unclear if it applies to this case or not. I imagine Harvard will also sue in this particular case.
And I imagine there'll be an injunction here as well.

Speaker 2 Otherwise, you're going to have a bunch of international students who, if they don't transfer, could lose their jobs and potentially lose legal status and be deported.

Speaker 2 But it's just one example of, you know, the DHS is using the protests and anti-Semitism, but that's not what they really want to do. They just don't like Harvard.

Speaker 3 Yeah,

Speaker 3 they want to send a message to people that they view as their enemies.

Speaker 2 It's disgusting.

Speaker 2 And, you know, for the rest of us, whether it's a cause you care passionately about, whatever side of an issue you're on, recognize that the administration does not want to stop at pro-Palestinian protesters or media people that they don't like or different colleges that they don't like.

Speaker 2 Like they, they, unless you are completely in agreement with the administration and never speak out against them, you are at risk from this administration.

Speaker 3 If you're one of those people who believed that freedom of speech was a real reason to vote for Donald Trump in 2024, I have some bad news for you.

Speaker 2 Right. Right.
Yeah. What a fucking joke that was.
Okay.

Speaker 2 Biggest news of the week is that in the middle of the night, House Republicans passed Donald Trump's economic plan that gives $1 trillion in tax cuts to the richest 1% of Americans.

Speaker 2 These are Americans who make over $1 million a year.

Speaker 2 Just those trillion dollars in tax cuts are paid for by kicking 14 million Americans off their health insurance and cutting food assistance for nearly 11 million people, mostly children.

Speaker 2 The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which I regret to inform you is the official name of the legislation. It's actually, I had to look, it's actually on the paper.

Speaker 2 Would also put nearly 700,000 jobs at risk by gutting clean energy tax credits. And despite all of these cuts,

Speaker 2 because there's other tax cuts as well,

Speaker 2 this whole bill would still increase the deficit by $3 trillion, a little over $3 trillion.

Speaker 2 The bill passed by a single vote, 215 to 214. Every single Democrat voted against it.
Every single Republican voted for it.

Speaker 2 And it passed after Republicans made even deeper cuts and changes to win the votes of the hardliners in their caucus, many of whom still aren't happy, but gut to yes after a gentle nudge from dear leader himself, who said that a no vote would, quote, be the ultimate betrayal.

Speaker 2 The bill now heads to the Senate, where Republicans can only afford to lose three votes. You said last week it's the Republican moderates who always cave and the hardliners who always win.

Speaker 2 What did you think of how this one ended up?

Speaker 3 That's largely how this played out. The moderates,

Speaker 3 who originally wanted very few Medicaid changes, very little cuts to Medicaid, not people losing their health coverage through Medicaid, were willing to trade all of that away in order to get an increase in the cap for the state and local tax deduction, which mostly benefits wealthy homeowners up to $500,000 income in their states.

Speaker 3 So they traded that away for that. The far-right deficit hawks did not get a bill that reduced the deficit, obviously, since they got one who massively increased it.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 But they shut the runway there by a couple trillion dollars.

Speaker 3 They were just, you know, horseshoes and hand grenades, Sean.

Speaker 2 They were almost there. And

Speaker 3 the bill moved to the right on both Medicaid.

Speaker 3 They moved forward when the work requirements would go into place to the end of 2026 and made more drastic the cuts to the clean energy tax incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act, which is something the moderates almost universally opposed.

Speaker 3 So they gave in on that. And we'll see what the final vote is when they have to, we'll talk about what comes next when the final passage is vote.

Speaker 3 But the fact that it passed by one vote means that every single vulnerable Republican, every one of those people in a purple district or the ones who won a district that Kamala Harris won were the deciding vote for this bill.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I think that the conflict between the hardliners and the moderates is much less important than the role of Donald Trump here. And like,

Speaker 2 I think these Republican politicians, you know, they still have their own views about policy and they may even vote according to those views when a Democratic president is in office.

Speaker 2 But when Donald Trump is in office, the most important policy position that you have as a Republican is whatever the fuck Donald Trump believes.

Speaker 2 And the fact that he could go in there and tell the hardliners, oh, you're all pissed. You're all threatening to vote it down if it doesn't cut the deficit more, if we don't have deeper cuts.

Speaker 2 Fuck you.

Speaker 3 you're voting for the bill and told the moderates oh you're worried about losing yeah whatever you lose you lose but let me tell you you're gonna have a primary if you don't get on board this like they're they are all just they'll do whatever he says the part it's a cult of personality is the party and they're they all bend the need of one person and that person has an entirely incoherent and uneducated set of policy priorities he doesn't really know what he wants he just want wins doesn't matter what the win is doesn't matter what the cost is and he believes he can lie about it right he can lie about the deficit.

Speaker 3 He can lie about the Medicaid cuts and lie about all of it and get away with it. So all he cares about is his win.

Speaker 3 What it takes to get there and who gets hurt along the way is of no concern to him. And so these members then go along and it makes no sense.
Like we talked about this for weeks.

Speaker 3 It was impossible to square the circle. What people wanted could not happen.
You could not.

Speaker 3 Some people wanted Medicaid cuts. Some people wanted more Medicaid cuts.
Some people wanted to reduce deficits. Some people wanted bigger tax cuts.

Speaker 3 And they all just went in line because that's what Donald Trump wanted.

Speaker 3 Not because he cut some deal that met in the middle on various things. They just

Speaker 3 ended up going where he wanted to go because they were afraid they'd lose their primary. Because the primary comes before the general.

Speaker 3 If you lose your primary, you don't even get a chance to suffer the consequences in the general for your vote to kick your

Speaker 3 constituents off health care and food assistance to pay for a tax cut for rich guys.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, in a way, they got the worst of all worlds. They have a bill that

Speaker 2 will hugely increase the deficit, will also deeply cut Medicaid. will also give tax cuts to the richest Americans, will also screw over poorer Americans and much of Trump's base.

Speaker 2 I don't know who's leaving this with,

Speaker 2 we'll talk about what happens next, but if the House bill became law,

Speaker 2 I don't know who wins from that except

Speaker 2 1%, top 1%, top 0.1%. That's about it.

Speaker 3 I mean, Data for Progress did this polling experiment where they use some modeling, but basically they modeled support for cuts to Medicaid throughout every congressional district in the country. And

Speaker 3 nowhere was it higher than 15%.

Speaker 2 14 million people, and you get 14 million because I think it's around

Speaker 2 9 million for the Medicaid cuts. And then they also declined to extend the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act.
What that means is that's what you get up to 14 million.

Speaker 2 When we were debating repealing the Affordable Care Act, we were talking about how 20 million people could lose their health care. Well, now, 14 million people could lose their health care.

Speaker 2 A lot of other people, by the way, that's not even counting the people who are just going to pay more for their health care.

Speaker 2 Medicare beneficiaries who depend on Medicaid are going to pay more for their health care. A lot of people are going to lose their Medicaid.
Other people are going to pay more for their Medicaid.

Speaker 2 People who are buying their own health insurance on the Affordable Care Act exchanges are going to pay a lot more. Some of them will lose their health care for good.

Speaker 2 Rural hospitals are going to close because of this.

Speaker 2 It's probably the biggest assault on health care, on people's healthcare coverage that we've seen in our lifetimes.

Speaker 3 It's one of the greatest transfers of wealth from the poor to the rich in the history of this country.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 3 And guess what? We should be going the other way on the transfer of wealth.

Speaker 2 We should be going. Yes.
Yes, that is exactly. Any other stuff in the bill worth knowing about?

Speaker 3 I mean, it defunds Planned Parenthood by denying Medicaid funding to any organization who has abortion services as part of the, as part of their offering, which is intentionally written to target Planned Parenthood.

Speaker 3 There is a massive increase in the defense budget. Good job, fiscal hawks.
A $100 billion, I think it is, for Trump's mass deportation plan.

Speaker 3 At one point, I don't know if it's in the final bill, that they were eliminating the excise tax on tanning beds, a huge priority of many people.

Speaker 2 Jesus.

Speaker 3 I mean, the thing is, this bill is so big, and so people have read the whole thing that we're going to be discovering what's in this bill for weeks. Yeah.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Well, that brings us to the Senate, which will be taking up this bill.

Speaker 3 Before we get to the Senate, can we just for one moment just pause on the fact that they call it the one big beautiful bill act?

Speaker 2 I know. I know.
Redundancy there.

Speaker 3 It's been a while since Schoolhouse Rocks has been on TV, but it's a bill until it's an act. And it would have been so easy to just do one big, beautiful act.

Speaker 2 You know, and I fucking hate all the acronyms on everything related to Congress.

Speaker 2 And for the first, I didn't know it was called this until I saw someone write, I got one of those emails from some group that was giving us, you know, what's going on with the bill.

Speaker 2 And it's like, Oba, Oba.

Speaker 2 I was like, what the fuck is Oba?

Speaker 3 I read kept putting that in some of his writing. And I did not know what the OBB, the OBBBB was for a long time.

Speaker 2 Jesus Christ.

Speaker 2 You heard they also had a BIF.

Speaker 2 They have these MAGA accounts that for every child born, they were going to put $1,000 in the stock market. Well, now I think they're not fucking $1,000 anymore.

Speaker 3 It's just a tax-free savings account now, basically. Right.

Speaker 2 Oh, that's cool.

Speaker 3 That's cool. Basically, they named it the MAGA account.
And I was like, they must have made MAGA stand for something, right?

Speaker 3 It just stands for MAGA, right?

Speaker 2 No, no.

Speaker 2 This is a small thing, but this is how how they fucked this up. MAGA stood for something.
It was like my

Speaker 2 account or something, right? I can't remember what it is now.

Speaker 2 But then in the middle of the night last night, they suddenly changed one change in the bill was changing all the instances of MAGA account in the legislation to the Trump account.

Speaker 2 They need to change it to the Trump account.

Speaker 3 Right. But the end result here is it sounds on paper like something like baby bonds with a child tax credit, but what it really is likely to end up being is a tax haven for wealthy people.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Cool.
Cool, cool. Everything else in there.

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Speaker 2 All right, the Senate. So Jon Thune said today, oh, the Senate's going to write it.
We're going to write our own bill, and we're just going to use the House bill as guidance.

Speaker 2 You got Murkowski and Collins, who both said that

Speaker 2 they don't like the Medicaid cuts. Then you have other people like I think Kevin Kramer was saying

Speaker 2 he wants deeper Medicaid cuts. You got Rand Paul saying, I don't want the debt ceiling lifted in this bill.
Ron Johnson's a no on the whole thing. Ron Johnson's worried about the debt.

Speaker 2 He said he wants deeper cuts. So

Speaker 2 what do you think? What are the opportunities in the Senate here for Democrats to, if not kill the bill, at least improve it?

Speaker 3 It's interesting because there's no negotiating with Democrats here, right? There's no Joe Manchin or anyone left that you would, that Thune, like, so Thune can lose three votes. Yep.

Speaker 3 And he's got all sorts of problems all across the board.

Speaker 3 He has similar, similar to the House in the sense that he has moderates who, like Mercowski and Collins, who do not want such Medicaid cuts, and performative populists like Josh Hawley, who also say they don't want Medicaid cuts.

Speaker 3 And then you got a bunch of people who want more Medicaid cuts. Where is that going to come down?

Speaker 3 There's going to be people who are going to care about how the Medicaid cuts are, like which Medicaid cuts there are, not just the top line.

Speaker 3 And ultimately, you're probably going to,

Speaker 3 they're going to be forced to pass something pretty close to the house, I think, because...

Speaker 3 Otherwise, it's not going to pass. And they have a ticking clock here because the debt limit is in this bill, which I did not mention when you asked me this question.

Speaker 3 And the debt limit has to be extended X date, the date when we run out of cash is supposed to be in July, I believe is the last time Scott Basson said it.

Speaker 3 So before these folks leave for August recess, they have to pass something to extend the debt limit or we would default or we would mint a $1 trillion Trump coin or something to solve the problem.

Speaker 2 That'll do wonders for the bond markets, I'm sure.

Speaker 3 Yeah, it'd be great. The bond markets are very excited about everything that's been happening these days.

Speaker 3 The House has done to the Senate what the Senate usually does to the House, which is send them a bill that they can't make a ton of changes to.

Speaker 3 But what I would think about from the perspective of Democrats is put as much pressure as you can on senators, absolutely, including the ones like Tom Tillis, who are up in 2026, and use this as an opportunity and try to get some of those Medicaid cuts scaled back in some way, shape, or form.

Speaker 3 But even absent that, the reason why this fight is worth having and making a big sinking fight is we know these Medicaid cuts are incredibly unpopular.

Speaker 3 We also know based on a Navigator research poll that came out this morning, most people do not know about the Medicaid cuts.

Speaker 3 They asked people what stories you've been hearing a lot of, and only 27% of respondents said they've been hearing a lot about the Medicaid cuts.

Speaker 3 That's half what we've been hearing about the tariffs or the new pope and stories like that. So we have some time here, but in every day that this bill is not yet law, we should try to...

Speaker 3 put so much political pressure on them that they scale them back. But failing that, at least we'll be informing people that they exist so that they will pay the price next November.

Speaker 2 On Tuesday, Trump went to the Hill and told Republicans in a closed door meeting, quote, don't fuck with Medicaid. But of course, they fucked with Medicaid.

Speaker 3 Boy, did they?

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 he's thrilled. He's taking a victory lap.
He's saying it's amazing. Clearly, you know, you mentioned this.
He just thinks he can get away with lying about it,

Speaker 2 which

Speaker 2 maybe he can with his base at least. Because

Speaker 2 the way they have set it up, Now they moved up the work requirements, but the cuts to Medicaid and the people losing their health insurance probably won't happen until after the midterms.

Speaker 2 The work requirements are scheduled to go into effect right after the midterms. I guess if the ACA subsidies don't get extended past this year, then that'll start hitting people soon.

Speaker 2 But there is a question of we know that when people actually feel the effects of policy, their political opinions can change.

Speaker 2 But when they are told the effects of policy, they may either not believe it or just not hear it.

Speaker 2 or just be or believe the lies they're told from the people that they voted for and support.

Speaker 2 So, how do you think about like the most effective way to make a political case other than just screaming about Medicaid cuts?

Speaker 2 And also, sorry, I'm asking you a lot of questions, Medicaid versus like 14 million people losing their healthcare. What do you think about that?

Speaker 2 Because I never want to leave out the ACA stuff and just talk about Medicaid. Because then, if someone isn't on Medicaid, they might think, oh, I'll be fine when they may not be fine.

Speaker 2 Right. So,

Speaker 3 I think it is, I do this in the following ways. One is is it's absolutely essential to tie the cuts to Medicaid to pay for the tax cuts for the rich.
Yes.

Speaker 3 And the reason why this is important is what we have to do is this is telling a story about who Trump and these House Republicans in particular are fighting for. And it's not for you.

Speaker 3 It's not for working class people. It is for

Speaker 3 the rich. And that was a very effective message in 2018.
Because Republicans wanted to pay for those tax cuts with cuts to Medicare Social Security and repealing the ACA.

Speaker 3 They're going to lie about it.

Speaker 3 I mean, remember all the ads in 2018 of Republicans staring into the camera saying, I would never vote to kick people with pre-existing conditions off of healthcare after they had just voted to kick people with pre-existing conditions off of healthcare.

Speaker 3 And so they're going to lie about it. That didn't work then.
And we can make sure it doesn't work now.

Speaker 3 Medicaid, the word Medicaid is incredibly powerful. In that same Navigator poll, 75% of people, including 62% of Republicans, oppose cuts to Medicaid.

Speaker 3 When you ask people to, if they want to cut Medicaid a lot, cut Medicaid a little, keep it the same, or increase it, most people want to increase it, increase funding for Medicaid.

Speaker 3 And so we shouldn't run away from that. But the broader story here is

Speaker 3 that the House Republicans want to, and Trump and the House Republicans, want to give huge tax cuts to the ultra-wealthy incorporation.

Speaker 3 They want to pay for it by cutting Medicaid, kicking people off their healthcare, and taking food off the table from school children.

Speaker 3 18 million kids' lunches are at risk in the snap cuts in this bill. 3 million people losing food assistance.
And so it is that. That's the story.

Speaker 3 The story we're telling is not about the specific policy. It's not the specific impacts, which are going to come down the line.

Speaker 3 It is a story about who these Republicans are and who they're fighting for.

Speaker 2 Yeah, there's

Speaker 2 one thing that I think is pretty easy to understand and also just infuriating when it's put like this. If you make over $4 million a year,

Speaker 2 you will get $400,000 in tax cuts.

Speaker 2 If you are the 40% of Americans making 50 000 and under your income is going to go down so people making under people working people making under fifty thousand dollars are going to lose income so that fucking people who make over four million dollars can get four hundred thousand dollars as a tax cut that's what our government's spending money on four hundred thousand dollars for multi-millionaires like i i don't know

Speaker 2 It just, it seems like that is a, uh, it's a pretty easy thing for people to understand.

Speaker 2 And if they want to defend that, great, go defend that we have to make him defend it yes all right another uh notable moment from this week took place during wednesday's oval office meeting between trump and south african president cyril ramifosa uh which our president used as an opportunity uh to spread his favorite new conspiracy theory that there's a genocide against white south africans trump held up a bunch of random press clippings then he dimmed the lights for the video portion of the presentation, which was a hard-to-follow montage, both for viewers at home and for President President Rama Fosa.

Speaker 2 Here's a sampling of what it all sounded like.

Speaker 8 You're taking people's land.

Speaker 8 We ignore them.

Speaker 8 And those people, in many cases, are being executed.

Speaker 8 They're being executed. And they happen to be white.
Now, I will say, apartheid, terrible. That was the biggest threat.
That was reported all the time. This is sort of the opposite of apartheid.

Speaker 8 What's happening now is never reported. Nobody knows about it.
These are articles over the last few days: Death

Speaker 8 of people.

Speaker 8 Death.

Speaker 2 Death.

Speaker 8 Death.

Speaker 8 Horrible death.

Speaker 8 Death.

Speaker 8 I don't know.

Speaker 2 Tommy and I watched the whole thing live unfold while we were in the office. And it was just, first of all, it went on forever.
And it was the most surreal experience.

Speaker 2 A lot of the coverage tried to compare it to the Zelensky meeting, which it really was.

Speaker 2 It was also a completely batshit crazy meeting, but the Zelensky meeting was like really tense and JD Vance is yelling. This one was just like,

Speaker 2 it was like he was holding a salon and all of the delegation that came with the South African president, they got involved.

Speaker 2 They brought some white Afrikaner like professional golfers, because I guess the South African, the poor South African president must have thought to himself, oh, I must have the white golfers to potentially communicate with this white golfer who's quite racist.

Speaker 2 And maybe that, maybe I will be able to break through by bringing my white golfers.

Speaker 2 Like it was, and then, and then he's, we're going to talk about it, but he's screaming at the reporters, yelling at Peter Alexander for asking a question about the Qatari plane.

Speaker 2 He's holding up the press clippings. President Ramaphosa is like,

Speaker 2 that video you just saw, I don't know where those crosses are. I don't know who you're talking about.

Speaker 2 And Trump's like, well, it's in South Africa. He's like, no, I know, I know.
Because he was like, where did that all come from? He's like, it came from South Africa. It's like, no, dude.

Speaker 3 The Zelensky meeting was like pretty normal compared to this. Like, I mean, if you put aside the fact that it was the no.

Speaker 2 It was angrier and more. Well, it was.

Speaker 3 That one felt like, like, put aside the fact that the most surreal part of the Zelensky meeting was that you had the United States beating up on the ally we were supporting in the war in service of Vladimir Putin.

Speaker 3 Like, put that aside for a second. It kind of felt like a meeting that could be happening behind closed doors, just with people being dicks.
Because it is high stakes.

Speaker 3 We were sending a lot of money there. They're trying to get people.

Speaker 3 This was bananas. You just have the South African president just randomly showing up here for a meeting, like any normal pro-former meeting we have with world leaders all the time.

Speaker 3 And the president is like, you use the term press clippings.

Speaker 3 These are mostly Facebook posts that are printed out.

Speaker 2 Natalie, Natalie, do you have my, do you have my clips? That's what he was yelling. And then

Speaker 2 Natalie, who just exists with a printer, I guess. I guess she's a human printer with a real printer and then she just i think she that's her job she's the one

Speaker 2 yeah no that's literally the profile of natalie yes

Speaker 3 she just she prints out facebook posts and hand them over which makes her one of the top 10 most powerful people in the government right now you know fucking marco rubio would love to be able to hand facebook posts to donald trump these days

Speaker 2 kissing up to natalie to try to get it

Speaker 2 it's going to be marco's fifth job pretty soon he's going to be announced as that but yeah no he the the white genocide conspiracy theory as as much as we were just laughing, is horrific.

Speaker 2 It is, it is basically what's going on here is Trump and before Trump, Elon Musk and before Elon Musk, way before Elon Musk, I don't know, just random like 4chan and 8-chan trolls on the internet started this, believe that there is a genocide against South African farmers, most of whom are Afrikaners,

Speaker 2 white Afrikaners.

Speaker 2 And they are worried about they're basically, the theory is that the the overwhelming majority black population of South Africa is going after the land of the white farmers because white farmers have most of the land even though they represent a tiny percentage of the population and are murdering white farmers all over the place and committing a genocide against them.

Speaker 2 Now

Speaker 2 white Afrikaners in South Africa in the government do not believe that a white genocide is occurring. And in fact, in the Oval Office, we're like, oh no,

Speaker 2 there are murders and there is crime in South Africa, but

Speaker 2 it's nothing like a genocide.

Speaker 2 And there are stats on this.

Speaker 2 There were nearly 7,000 people were murdered in South Africa between October and December of 2024.

Speaker 2 Of these nearly 7,000 people murdered, 12 were killed in farm attacks, and some of those people were black.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 that's the white genocide. theory, the opposite of apartheid, as Trump

Speaker 2 so beautifully put it.

Speaker 3 The reasons why Trump brought this up, I think, are very telling about

Speaker 3 his worldview, the central premises of MAGA-ism,

Speaker 3 and the spread of right-wing nationalism around the world. This is not about what's happening in South Africa, right? The world is getting more diverse.
America is getting more diverse.

Speaker 3 We are on an inexorable path towards being a majority-minority country. And what Trump has always tried to weaponize

Speaker 3 is

Speaker 3 this fear that the

Speaker 3 white Christian, mostly men, are going to lose their political power that they, in his view, believe is their birthright as the country becomes more reverse. That is Stephen Miller's.

Speaker 3 We're losing our American identity. Immigration is diluting who we are, and all of that.
And so, this idea that somewhere across the world,

Speaker 3 there is an example of a place where whites are the minority, and this mythical genocide is happening

Speaker 3 is a tool to scare people here, to incite people to more racial animus, to be more racially polarized. And that is ultimately, like, that is how authoritarianism works:

Speaker 3 you pick an other, right? It could be black people, Latinos, immigrants, Jews, and they are threatening the regime.

Speaker 3 And you should be so scared of this happening that you are willing to voluntarily hand over your rights and freedoms in exchange for

Speaker 3 safety. And so, like, that's the core.
This is not, this is like, that's all like when Trump talks about how we go back to the 50s again.

Speaker 3 That's a very specific reference to a time before the Voting Rights Act, to a time when America was much more white. But this used, like, you look at what happened in Hungary.

Speaker 3 It's a very, Orban has a very similar playbook for how he was able to consolidate power.

Speaker 3 So, this is not like, this is obviously tied to the fact that the world's richest man hangs out with Donald Trump all the time.

Speaker 3 And he also happens to be a white South African who pushes this specific conspiracy theory. But the reason why it, like, Trump vibes with it is because it's consistent with his worldview.

Speaker 2 Well, and the key here is grievance politics, which is what Trump practices and what most authoritarians practice, is fueled by a belief that they are the ones,

Speaker 2 the in-group is the ones being discriminated against, right? And so Trump doesn't say, I don't like diversity. I don't like, you know,

Speaker 2 their argument is, of course, we want everyone to be equal, but we are the ones being discriminated against. It's reverse racism.

Speaker 2 And so they can point to South Africa, where, by the way, there was apartheid till 1996.

Speaker 2 And the reason there's even conflict about the land there is because this tiny percentage of white South Africans, Afrikaners, own a gigantic percentage of the land.

Speaker 2 And so they are trying to basically rectify what happened after decades of apartheid in that country. Never mind all that.

Speaker 2 If they can look at there's one country in the world where, oh, it's the it's the white minority that is being discriminated against, that is being targeted, then they can say, see,

Speaker 2 this is what could happen in the United States. This is what could happen in Europe, maybe not with black people from South Africa, but maybe it's immigrants from the Middle East.

Speaker 2 Maybe it's immigrants from elsewhere, right? It's just no matter how much power and wealth you have.

Speaker 2 In order to fuel the grievance politics, you need to be the one who is the persecuted minority somehow.

Speaker 3 Or in this case, the persecuted majority.

Speaker 2 Right, Right. But that's, they don't want, I mean, that's, I follow all these accounts now because of the immigration shit.
And they're like, they don't think that we're, that they're the majority.

Speaker 2 No. Right.
It's like, it is,

Speaker 2 it's 20. First, it was 5 million immigrants let in, then 10 million, then 20 million.
And suddenly it's like, it's a trillion. Pretty soon it's going to be a trillion immigrants and only 10 Americans.

Speaker 3 On a different date, I'd like to talk to you about the accounts you're following and why you're following them. And maybe we should just have like an intervention of sorts.

Speaker 2 It's, it's, it's our friend Stephen Miller. It's Mike Davis now because I I was arguing with him.
They're all, it's real, you, I talked about this on, and Emma's nodding.

Speaker 2 I talked about this on offline this week, so you can listen to that, but it's really, I'm exposed to some real bad stuff these days.

Speaker 3 I feel like Max is not doing his job if you're still doing this.

Speaker 2 So step up, Max. Let me tell you, it's pretty dark.
It's pretty dark.

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Speaker 2 All right, so believe it or not, as I mentioned, the meeting went even further off the rails when NBC's Peter Alexander asked Trump about the $400 million Qatari luxury jet that the Department of Defense has now officially accepted as a gift.

Speaker 2 The president responded to Peter's question by losing his shit. Let's listen.

Speaker 8 If there weren't fake news like this jerk that we have here, if we had real reporters, they'd be covering it. But the fake news of this country doesn't talk about that.

Speaker 8 They'll have him talking about why did a country give a free

Speaker 8 think of this. Why did a country give an airplane to the United States Air Force? That's what that idiot talks about.
After viewing a thing where thousands of people are dead.

Speaker 8 I'm sorry, I don't have a plane to give you.

Speaker 8 I wish you did. I'd take it.

Speaker 8 I would take it. If your country offered the United States Air Force a plan, I would take it.
Okay.

Speaker 2 Funniest moment of the meeting. Maybe funniest moment of the day.

Speaker 3 And what a funny day it was.

Speaker 2 I mean, great line there.

Speaker 3 Funniest moment in the meeting that featured a white genocide slideshow.

Speaker 2 Yeah, basically.

Speaker 2 But don't worry, the corrupt date doesn't end there, Dan.

Speaker 2 Corrupt date.

Speaker 3 Ding, ding, ding.

Speaker 2 We need some.

Speaker 3 Why do we not have sound for that?

Speaker 2 Why do we not have a corrupt date sting? Yes. Elijah.
Anyone. I was like, what is happening? It's talking about Elijah's responsibility.
I'm just throwing him under the bus because it's fun to do.

Speaker 2 On Thursday night, Trump hosted the top 220 investors in his Trump meme coin for a black tie optional.

Speaker 2 Thanks for letting me know. It's optional.
Black tie optional dinner at his DC golf club. The top 25 buyers also had a private reception with Trump beforehand.

Speaker 2 NBC reported that the average seat ended up costing around $1 million,

Speaker 2 which now they can afford because they just got another tax cut that's worth a million dollars.

Speaker 2 And that the approximate total those 200 plus investors spent to gain this kind of access to the president adds up to almost 400 million dollars, which is means they can afford another Qatari jet.

Speaker 2 This time, not as a gift. Trump can buy his own, or his sons can.
White House press secretary Caroline Lovitt didn't have the easiest time trying to explain all of this on Thursday.

Speaker 2 Here she is taking a question from NBC's Garrett Hake.

Speaker 3 Garrett, go ahead.

Speaker 9 Caroline, you guys are very proud of your record on transparency. I have two transparency-related questions for you.
Sure.

Speaker 9 On the president's dinner tonight, will the White House commit to making a list of the attendees public so people can see who's paying for that kind of access to the president?

Speaker 10 Well, as you know, Gareth, this question has been raised with the president. I have also addressed the dinner tonight.
The president is attending it in his personal time.

Speaker 10 It is not a White House dinner. It's not taking place here at the White House.
But certainly I can raise that question and try to get you an answer for it.

Speaker 3 Okay.

Speaker 3 I don't think she's going to try very hard.

Speaker 2 You don't think she's going to get that answer?

Speaker 3 No, I don't think so.

Speaker 2 You think it fixes everything now that it's not at the White House?

Speaker 3 Yeah, it's personal capacity. He can do whatever he wants.

Speaker 2 It's personal capacity.

Speaker 3 You know, someone should tell the Supreme Court who said that Trump only has immunity in his presidential capacity.

Speaker 2 Yeah, right. No, well, this is a, oh, yeah, what is he going to do here? Does he take is he when he takes bribes, it's personal capacity.
Yes. But when he just accepts gifts to the government, and

Speaker 2 I don't even know what the official capacity for the meme coin is.

Speaker 3 Like, once again, not a constitutional scholar here, but it does seem like he's going to take the money in his personal capacity. He's going to dole out the favors in his official capacity.

Speaker 3 So falls into a gray area that probably a majority of the Supreme Court is comfortable with.

Speaker 2 We talked recently about some data that suggested the corruption message isn't breaking through to key voters yet. I guess we should keep trying harder.
What do you think? Yes.

Speaker 3 I mean, if the central, one of the central themes of the Trump's presidency is about how he can get richer, and I just not to fact-check the president of the United States, but the United States Air Force is temporarily holding the plane for him before he gets it in his personal capacity at the end.

Speaker 3 So not a gift to the government, a gift to Trump that's just being held by the government for a while.

Speaker 2 Important point. Also, did you read the New York Times story about

Speaker 2 the plane being officially accepted? Because

Speaker 2 they estimate it could cost up to $1 billion

Speaker 2 to retrofit the plane so that it is ready to be used as Air Force One.

Speaker 3 It's never going to be used as Air Force One. Never.

Speaker 2 Where's that money? Where's the billion dollars coming from?

Speaker 2 The tax bill they just passed right i was gonna say how much should we just cut from medicaid how much should we just cut from the aca but we jacked up defense spending in that same bill so

Speaker 2 a billion dollars so stupid we know the whole thing is so stupid the government has already spent 3.9 billion dollars for the two new air force ones that the that boeing has been working on so we already have a contract that we paid taxpayers paid 3.9 billion dollars for the two jets that we thought we needed and that was like the normal course of business now we get the $400 million temporary gift until Trump leaves office that they're going to spend maybe a billion dollars retrofitting and the maintenance costs for an Air Force One, which now I guess will have three,

Speaker 2 is $135 million

Speaker 2 per year per plane.

Speaker 3 Just the idea that Trump wanted this plane because he thought it was cool and he thought the Boeing was taking too long for his other new planes because the super cool plane he already had was not apparently cool enough for him.

Speaker 3 Just there's no way this other plane that they're going to have to basically tear down to the studs, one, to check it for bugs and other listening devices, and then do all the things you have to do to the plane will be ready before the Boeing planes is impossible to fathom.

Speaker 3 The fact that I would be shocked if he flies one day as president on this plane.

Speaker 3 My guess is a bunch of taxpayer money goes into making it even cooler, and then he will accept it at the back end in his personal capacity.

Speaker 2 Yeah, that's just his, that's his to-go bag.

Speaker 3 It's his gift bag.

Speaker 2 It's his bag. It's his gift bag at the end.
Yeah, you get to take the plane with you when you leave the White House. Never, never flown in.
So, yeah, so he's just, I don't know.

Speaker 2 I really do think that

Speaker 2 the stories, we talked about this before, but like.

Speaker 2 We just talked about the tax cuts for the rich people, stealing food off kids' plates and health care from millions of Americans. Meanwhile, he's making money at these dinners.

Speaker 2 He's taking $400 million million jets.

Speaker 2 We've got to combine the stories. The story is the same story.

Speaker 3 Yeah, it's all about him and not about you.

Speaker 3 And it's going to hurt your life. That's the part that is really important here.

Speaker 3 The other thing, and this is why Democrats, we talked about this a little bit last week, should be pushing this message, is the problem

Speaker 3 is not just the message, it's the messenger. is that we as a party, we actually frankly don't have the credit.

Speaker 3 We'll get to this submitted credibility to deliver any messages right now with great efficacy.

Speaker 3 But especially the one we don't is corruption because we're not, we are seen as defenders of that same broken system. And suppose people would actually take it on and fix it.

Speaker 3 There are people within our party who have the credibility to do that. Bernie Sanders, AOC, Warren, Elizabeth Warren, I think, in some cases.

Speaker 3 Some people who are outside of government, outside of like the federal government, probably can, like Ruben Gago, or Ruben Gallagher may up because he seems to be

Speaker 3 some of the younger folks like Wes Moore, some of the governors might be able to do it.

Speaker 3 But as a party, we have to not just make, we have to show people through our actions and our policies that we would actually take on

Speaker 3 corruption when we're in charge. And if you want to make the message work, you got to fix your messenger problem.

Speaker 2 All right. Speaking of that, one last thing before we get to your interview with Representative Lamonico McIver.

Speaker 2 We have been saying since November that we can't draw too many decisive conclusions about what happened in the election based only on the exit polls, that we have to wait for the gold standard data, which comes from two places, Catalyst and Pew.

Speaker 2 We finally got the Catalyst data, and the headlines out of it were as unsurprising as they were depressing.

Speaker 2 Kamala Harris lost critical ground with young voters and people of color, especially men of color, especially young men of color.

Speaker 2 In fact, she gained ground only with married white women and not by much. One point.
Gained one point. One point.
Yeah, that's one point.

Speaker 3 And it's not clear what they rounded up from to get there.

Speaker 2 And super voters in this report, which are people who voted in the last four elections. She did one point better with Biden among the super voters,

Speaker 2 but she lost a lot of ground among the irregular voters, people who have voted in just a few of the last four elections.

Speaker 2 As Amy Walter and Carrie Dan at the Cook Political Report put in their headline, the main conclusion from this report is, quote, the Obama coalition turned into the Trump coalition. Ouch.

Speaker 2 First off, can you explain for folks how Catalyst does what it does and why this is such good good data?

Speaker 3 Sure. This is a very complicated process and I am at great risk of oversimplifying it.
But Catalyst is a data firm. They ingest all the voter file data around the country.

Speaker 3 And just so people understand, voter data is public in the United States.

Speaker 3 States keep records of who's registered to vote, if those people voted, which elections they voted, not who they voted for, but if they voted in the election, which primary elections, which general elections, which special elections.

Speaker 3 Most, some states, I think it's about seven, have actually have demographic information,

Speaker 3 race and gender information

Speaker 3 on the voter file.

Speaker 3 Most states, but not all states, have partisanship. So you know if someone's a Democrat or Republican or either a registered independent or in some cases, just

Speaker 3 no party status.

Speaker 3 And so all the, we have gotten all the precinct level data from the election. So we know who voted in 2024 all across the country.
Now that's all come in.

Speaker 3 Catalyst then takes that data, they combine it with their voter file, which includes census data, commercial data, where they will ingest other information so you can get more information about people and parts of the country.

Speaker 3 Then they will use some modeling to help figure out, you know, it can be based on people's names, where they live, to help people understand demographic information, age, gender, and identify really all the voters in this country.

Speaker 3 And so they do this, and then they spend months going through it to compare it to not just the last election, but every election since 2012, which is as long as as they've been doing this report, to make an assessment of where Democrats gained and lost, in this case, mostly lost ground, to fully understand who actually voted.

Speaker 3 In previous elections, the Catalyst report has really upended some immediate post-election takes, right?

Speaker 3 There actually is a pretty dramatic shift in 2016 about how women voted based on the exit polls and the Catalyst data. This data gives us much more.

Speaker 3 This report, which I believe everyone who works in politics at any level should read because it really tells a story of not just how kamala harris lost but what has happened to the democratic coalition over the last eight years

Speaker 3 but it it actually is fairly consistent with a lot of the takes that people had after the election about where trump gained ground in the democratic coalition not the numbers are a little different there's a little more precise but the idea that trump gained with uh huge core parts of the democratic coalition including latino voters and young voters uh is borne out by this report to me the biggest difference in this report when the exit polls is the gender divide.

Speaker 2 And now

Speaker 2 people had thought in the election there was going to be this huge gender divide. Then the exit polls showed it wasn't as big of a divide as

Speaker 2 maybe polls had suggested. Turns out it was.

Speaker 3 But almost entirely because Trump gained with men.

Speaker 2 Yes, that's what I'm saying. Right.

Speaker 2 So Trump gained two points with women, but he gained 11 points with men, which is quite a...

Speaker 3 And those gains with women were almost entirely were entirely with Latina women because Kamala Harris,

Speaker 3 she lost ground almost ever, but she held ground with all forms of white women and black women.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 So you wrote a great message box about this.

Speaker 2 And you noted how since election day, there's been this fierce argument about whether Harris lost because Biden voters didn't turn out,

Speaker 2 which some people argue means she wasn't progressive enough, or because too many Biden voters switched to Trump, which others argue means that she was too progressive.

Speaker 2 Of course, you and I have talked about how Biden voters who stayed home aren't necessarily further to the left than Biden voters who switched to Trump.

Speaker 2 But so we're simplifying the argument, but that is the argument that's out there. What was your take on the turnout versus persuasion effect from the Catalyst report?

Speaker 3 This will be deeply dissatisfying to Benny because it encodes nuance, but

Speaker 3 she lost because of both.

Speaker 3 And it's clear in this data that a significant number of people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

Speaker 3 It's also true that 30 million voters dropped out of the electorate from 2020 to 2024. Now, some of that is people staying home.
Some of it's people not voting intentionally.

Speaker 3 Some of it's people whose registration gets messed up because they moved or got purged off the rolls. Some of it's because people die in a four-year period.

Speaker 2 Yeah, we should say that every election,

Speaker 2 there's a huge number of people who fall out of the electorate.

Speaker 3 This is a larger than normal drop-off.

Speaker 3 It's not like twice as many, but I think it was like 26 million in the previous election drop-off. But this is a large number.
Catalyst estimates that that group is 55%

Speaker 3 Democrat. What this report cannot tell you is that they were 55% progressive.

Speaker 3 That's the thing.

Speaker 3 The raw numbers make it clear that to win, she had to do better with the people who didn't vote and stay at home and the people who did vote and switched their votes this report doesn't look at why people vote it's not a poll they're not asking you all these questions they're just analyzing existing data so you can't tell you the answer the thing that is um

Speaker 3 either way the way the math works is she has to do better with both and then we are being squeezed as a party we are losing people in the middle and we are not

Speaker 3 getting

Speaker 3 I guess, I guess the way I'd say this is, I sort of reject the entire premise, and I think you do as well, that ideology is the way to look at this, that you can assume that being more moderate is going to help you with swing voters in a way that being, and that being more progressive is going to help you with these drop-off voters or these new voters.

Speaker 3 Like there's, that's not real evidence to prove that. So I reject the argument on its face, but either way, both sides are wrong and both sides are right.
We need to do both.

Speaker 2 Yeah. I mean, I also think that the drop-off in the non-battleground states, we've talked about this before, was much larger.

Speaker 2 But there was a narrative out there after the election that there was like, you know, I forget how many million it was, this many million Biden voters stayed home.

Speaker 2 19 million Biden voters stayed home. And she ended the race with Liz Cheney.
And so people were bored, you know, people weren't inspired and they stayed home. And

Speaker 2 there's all these, you know, reasons that she moved too much to the center. And, you know, and that's just, that's not true.
That narrative is just not true. That this report bears it out.

Speaker 2 Every single piece of data bears that out. That is not to say that there aren't some people who stayed home.

Speaker 2 But you have to, one way to think about it is a Biden voter, let's say there's a young black man, right? Or a young Latino man. That's where basically she lost the most ground.

Speaker 2 So there's a young Latino man who decides to stay home. And he stays home because he's pissed about inflation.
He thinks that Joe Biden fucked up. He thinks Joe Biden's too old.

Speaker 2 He thinks that it was too much inflation. Prices were too high.
But he doesn't like Donald Trump. So he's going to stay home.

Speaker 2 Then there's another young Latino man who says, I don't like Joe Biden because of inflation, and I think he's too old.

Speaker 2 And I don't really like Donald Trump, but yeah, maybe he'll make, maybe he'll bring prices down a little bit. So I'll vote for Donald Trump.

Speaker 2 Not much difference ideologically between those two voters, but one gets counted as a, I'm staying home and one gets counted as a switcher, right? So I think that's one way to think about all this.

Speaker 2 Anything else jump out at you from the report?

Speaker 3 I mean, there are two things. One,

Speaker 3 the main story of this is that that Democrats are in a huge bit of trouble. Like, it's just, there's no way to look at this without recognizing the massive scale of our problems.

Speaker 3 And you can kind of tell yourself that things might be kind of okay by looking at just the shift from 20 to 24.

Speaker 3 But if you really want to assess where we are as a party, you have to look at the shift from 2016 to 2024.

Speaker 3 And this is particularly true with Latino voters. Okay.

Speaker 2 In 20

Speaker 2 or 2012,

Speaker 3 even with Latino voters, actually, is the one group where Hillary Clinton in the catalyst did better than Obama.

Speaker 3 Two points better. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 70% of the Latino vote.
Kamala Harris won 54%.

Speaker 3 It's a 16-point drop. And then you would like to think that gender, you know, that this is all about men.
It's not all about men. Latinas moved 17 points in eight years.

Speaker 3 Latino men went 14 points in eight years. There is no path

Speaker 3 to the Latinas are the fastest growing population in the country. They are particularly politically powerful because of

Speaker 3 how the population is distributed in electoral rich sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, et cetera.

Speaker 3 And so they are becoming more of the electorate, and we are losing more of them at a very fast rate. Like if that trend continues, there is no path to Democrats winning elections.

Speaker 3 And so we have to take that.

Speaker 3 Everyone was telling themselves stories about

Speaker 3 that maybe 2020 was an aberration because Trump made gains there because of COVID. Like there's a big talk about COVID.
This is something bigger than that. And we have to address that.

Speaker 3 The second thing in here is that Democrats lost new voters for the first time. Obama got 58% of new voters in 2012.
Biden and Clinton got 55%. Kamala Harris only got 49.5% of new voters.

Speaker 3 And which speaks to the gains that Trump made with

Speaker 3 younger people, and particularly young people of color who are coming into the electorate. And if that trend continues, we're in huge trouble.

Speaker 3 And so the message I take from this is anyone who thinks that we can get away with just tinkering around the edges, just hoping that Donald Trump becomes unpopular, they nominate some Yahoo in 2028, or we're going to ride the wave of tariffs and inflation to a narrow house victory, is just

Speaker 3 rearranging the dick shirts on the Titanic. Like we have to be willing to ask very hard questions.

Speaker 3 We have to be willing to evaluate every premise, look at how we govern campaign message across the board.

Speaker 3 Because right now, and this is where the Obama coalition, the Trump coalition point matters, is

Speaker 3 we are on the wrong side of political history right now. We are the party that is hoping for lower turnout.
That the fewer people that vote, we have a better chance of winning.

Speaker 3 That we are losing ground with the fastest growing parts of the population, younger voters and Latinos.

Speaker 3 And

Speaker 3 that is a party that can win an election every once in a while if the stars align correctly. But that is a party that will look a lot like the Democratic Party from the 60s

Speaker 3 until the 90s, where we maybe can win when Nixon gets impeached and

Speaker 3 Nixon resigns and we win that election and then we lose for the next 12 years.

Speaker 3 Like there has to be a fundamental change in approach, change in the, in just in all that, we just have to really look at it because there is no easy answer here to what's happening.

Speaker 2 And adding to the challenge is those same voters are the voters most likely to not even hear what we're saying

Speaker 2 because we're doing poorly with irregular voters, meaning the voters who don't always show up.

Speaker 2 Irregular voters also tend to be the voters who don't pay close attention to politics or consume a lot of political news.

Speaker 2 And so what happened with Trump is, and we've talked about this before, but people who follow politics closely, follow the news closely, who vote in all the recent elections, Kamala Harris wins those voters by quite a big margin.

Speaker 2 All the people we're talking to, we're all talking to each other.

Speaker 2 And Democrats have those people, have the super voters.

Speaker 2 But Trump won with people who don't follow politics that closely or people who get most of their political news and information from social media.

Speaker 2 And they are not necessarily getting their information from social media, from political media on social media. It is

Speaker 2 information and media on social media that may touch on politics once in a while, but it may not. It may be cultural content, sports content, entertainment, whatever.

Speaker 2 And they're just getting sort of vibes from the information that they're consuming. And yet they are still showing up in presidential elections, right?

Speaker 2 So it's not like they are apathetic, disconnected, and then they don't vote. They are voting, but they're voting without fully hearing the democratic message.

Speaker 3 Yes, that is trusting. I mean, like, we could honestly talk about this for literally hours and perhaps probably should.

Speaker 2 But we know that the answer is just finding a Joe Rogan of the left.

Speaker 3 Yes, that's exactly right. We are one, I've always said we're one podcaster away from a sustainable governing majority.

Speaker 2 Isn't it funny? I was like, I thought that the Joe Rogan of the left cliche, like we left it behind a couple months ago. And then just this week, I'm like on Twitter.
I'm looking around.

Speaker 2 I'm like, why is it back? What happened? Why are we talking about Joe Rogan and the fucking left again?

Speaker 3 It was that New York Times story.

Speaker 2 Yeah. I'm glad we're not talking about that.
No. Go read it if you want.
You're not going to hear about it from us.

Speaker 2 You mentioned talking about this for hours. One way people can listen to you talk about this more is by listening to this week's polar coaster.

Speaker 3 It's, I'm so glad you did this. You did it so smoothly because in our outline, it actually says insert organic housekeeping here.

Speaker 3 So we're going to do this as organically and natural as we possibly can. So if you're not.

Speaker 2 We're reading the stage directions. Yes, we are reading it.

Speaker 3 Like a good Democrat, I am reading the stage directions.

Speaker 3 So on this week's Polar Coaster, Caroline and I dug into the Catalyst report and answered some questions from our friends of the pod subscribers.

Speaker 3 But I also talked to Alexia Jane of Split Ticket, who is one of the smarter people in the data community. So smart.
How Democrats win the Senate in 2026 and how we can actually

Speaker 3 run the sort of candidates that can win Senate seats in the red states that Democrats used to have back in the day. It's a very smart conversation.
I highly recommend it.

Speaker 2 Yeah. I love the split ticket crew.
They're doing really, really great work. And you've also written about this in the message box as well.

Speaker 2 This is part two of the organic plug. Very important.
Okay. Do you want to organic this plug?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I'm going to organically do this.

Speaker 3 As I always say, if you like Ponte of America, you'll love the message box, my newsletter.

Speaker 3 See how organic and natural this is?

Speaker 3 Just today, I wrote about how the passage of the House GOP budget bill is imperiling their chances of holding on to their very narrow majority.

Speaker 3 To subscribe and to get your first 30 days free i was going to make that that 30 days free offer only for the first hundred days but trump has made things so shitty and expensive we're going to keep it going so to do that to get your to sign up for the message box and get your first 30 days free go to america's most cringeworthy website crooked.com slash yes we didn't that is crooked.com slash yeswein

Speaker 2 and of course to get access to polar coaster you can subscribe to friends of the pod at crooked.com slash friends and you also get ad-free episodes of pod save America offline, Love It or Leave It, Pod Save the World, and all kinds of other exclusive, subscriber-only goodies.

Speaker 2 And you'll be helping support independent media, which could use some support right now since all the corporate media around us are settling with Trump and paying him money.

Speaker 2 Not great. Not great.
Not great. All right.
When we come back, Dan's Conversation with New Jersey Representative LaMonica MacIver.

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Speaker 3 Joining me today is Representative Lamonica McIver, who was charged this week with two criminal felony counts of assaulting, resisting, intimidating, and interfering with federal officials while conducting an oversight visit at an ICE detention facility in New Jersey.

Speaker 3 Representative McIver, welcome to Pod Save America.

Speaker 12 Thank you so much, Dan, for having me. It's such a pleasure to be on with you today.

Speaker 3 Well, thank you so much for joining us. And why don't you just start by telling me what happened on that day at the ICE facility in your district?

Speaker 12 So we were basically there for an oversight visit. Myself, along with Bonnie, Watson, Coleman, and Rob Menendez, both representatives in New Jersey, we were going on an oversight visit.

Speaker 12 We've done this before. We actually visited a location not too far from there, which was another ICE facility in our community? Um,

Speaker 12 used to doing this. Um, people know it as congressional members, we have the uh right to go to an ice facility without an appointment and ask for a tour of this facility.

Speaker 12 It this facility has been open since May 1st.

Speaker 12 Um, they've been receiving detainees, but there was a lot of back and forth with the city, um, the city administration, because they didn't necessarily have the proper permits, they didn't have a CEO, it's not a federal uh jail or prison, it's not a state jail or prison, So they have to abide by local, you know, requirements.

Speaker 12 And so we went there, showed up for our oversight visit. We're waiting.
We were immediately greeted with disrespect, confrontation.

Speaker 12 They were giving us the runaround, telling us, hey, we got to call this person, that person. You got to wait.
I mean, it was like back and forth to, you know, over an hour, you know, plus of waiting.

Speaker 12 And then, you know, obviously the video shows this whole commotion of a situation happening. I mean, that is when ICE officials arrived,

Speaker 12 multiple, you know, over a dozen, you know, masked individuals, uniform camouflage, as well as

Speaker 12 administrators and Homeland Security arrived and immediately forgot about us, who were waiting there for a tour and went to go confront the mayor.

Speaker 12 It was crazy. It was an intense situation.
We were trying to get answers. We were trying to speak with them and they basically disregarded us.
They had no regard for us.

Speaker 12 They did not want to talk with us, explain anything. I mean, let alone address the fact that we are here for an oversight visit.
Like this is what we're here for.

Speaker 12 Whatever you got going on, we don't know anything about that. We're just trying to go and have our oversight visit.
And so it was just super unfortunate.

Speaker 12 And the chaos that is seen in all of the videos. ICE created that.
They created the chaos. They created the confrontation.
And it didn't have to be like that.

Speaker 12 Once again, we've done this before and we were simply there to do our jobs.

Speaker 3 So you're a member of Congress at a facility to do your oversight responsibilities. Coming out of that are criminal charges against you.

Speaker 3 What is your reaction to those charges and what are the next steps?

Speaker 12 I mean, honestly, it is a very scary moment, I think.

Speaker 12 It's really unfortunate.

Speaker 12 You know, I'm a mom, you know, I have a family and to have these charges put against me, to see the possibility of being in prison for such a long time for these charges, it's really unfortunate.

Speaker 12 But at the same time, it's truly sad for America, for something like this to be happening to a person that is not appointed by Donald Trump. I'm not appointed by Alina Haba.

Speaker 12 I am an elected official where thousands of people in New Jersey expect for me to do my job.

Speaker 12 And so to know that I showed up there to do my job and then I come out of this situation having, you know, felony charges charged against me is crazy.

Speaker 12 I, you know, went to court obviously yesterday via Zoom because I'm here in Washington, D.C. working.
And that was a formality.

Speaker 12 And now I'm looking forward to my day in court, you know, looking for the next process and the next step of this all.

Speaker 12 But honestly, it's just, it's truly a scary time when, you know, doing your job, you know, showing up to your job as a member of Congress can land you with felony assault charges.

Speaker 3 You're a new member of Congress. Have you?

Speaker 3 Your colleagues that you're with, the college you've spoken with, have they ever had an experience like the one you guys had where you were denied access to a facility before?

Speaker 12 Not that I know of. I mean, I haven't heard anyone say it.
Like I said, me, uh, Representative Bonnie Watson-Coleman and Representative Rob Menendez, we've been to a location before

Speaker 12 where we got a tour, you know, of a facility. It's ran by a different, you know, group, a different private group.
But, you know, we might have had some delay, but we were able to get a tour.

Speaker 12 You know, we've never experienced that before, like the situation that we experienced at Delaney Hall. But at the same time, you know,

Speaker 12 it's, it's, it's just unbelievable that something like that can happen, right? You know,

Speaker 12 what are we doing? Why is this happening? Why can't we just show up and, you know, do our job, you know, as congressional members? It's, it's just super unfortunate.

Speaker 3 If you can, can you talk a little bit about the specific interaction with the agent that this government has alleged that you pushed? I've seen the video,

Speaker 3 but if you could just talk a little about what happened in that moment, I think it'd be helpful for our listeners.

Speaker 12 Well, there was, it was a very tense situation. So there was a, you know, once again, this was a situation when you had three members of Congress.

Speaker 12 You had the mayor of the largest city in New Jersey, and you had protesters, which were peaceful protesters. This was something they had been protesting for days and days at this location, peacefully.

Speaker 12 To have that interruption happen, I mean, literally there was a lot of shoving and pushing that was going on, but I have no idea what agent they're talking about or what they're claiming.

Speaker 12 I mean, we don't know from the complaint that they submitted. I I mean, we don't have an agent's name.

Speaker 12 People did not identify themselves to us where I can, you know, say, oh, this was agent such and such. So I have no idea about the complaint.

Speaker 3 Can you talk a little bit about how you view these charges against you in the larger Trump administration effort to silence critics? Do you see this as

Speaker 3 part of a larger assault on democracy? Just, I mean, this is a pretty unprecedented situation where you have the

Speaker 3 federal government, the executive branch from the other party pressing criminal charges against a member of Congress for something involving

Speaker 3 their use of their actual exercise of their duties and free speech and right to assembly and all of those things. And so just can you talk a little bit about that?

Speaker 12 Well, it's a political intimidation. I mean, we've seen it over and over and over again with this administration since January 20th.

Speaker 12 We've seen it with judges, you know, we've seen it with other leaders.

Speaker 12 We see him opening up investigations on people just because these are political figures that he doesn't agree with what they say or they criticize the administration.

Speaker 12 He has literally weaponized every department, especially the DOJ against people that he disagrees with. And so I'm the latest victim of that.

Speaker 12 And I am, you know, watching this play out. And if it can happen to me, you know, as a member who's just doing her job, it can happen to any member.

Speaker 12 but specifically just regular individuals who've been expressing their concerns with us about how they're being treated by ICE and Homeland Security.

Speaker 12 We can understand their concerns and their complaints based off what I personally experienced and the other members of Congress that were with me experienced.

Speaker 12 So it's definitely political intimidation. You know, they want to make me shut me up, you know, stop me from doing my job, put fear in me, scare me.
But at the end of the day, I will not waver, Dan.

Speaker 12 You know, I am in this job. I signed up for this.
I ran for office. The people of New Jersey elected me.
And so I must serve. I must do my job.
And they're not going to, you know, shut me up.

Speaker 12 Donald Trump is not going to prosecute me because I'm woke, you know, or whatever that means, right?

Speaker 12 He's just not going to do that to me.

Speaker 3 What is in the reaction of your colleagues? You've obviously been in Congress all night for the last,

Speaker 3 you know, you probably haven't been to bed in a very long time.

Speaker 2 I've been in a rap today, Dan.

Speaker 3 Well, at least you woke up for the vote on like that Republican who missed this vote.

Speaker 3 But just what have you heard from, you know, you've you've been with all of your colleagues. Have you heard anything? What's the reaction been from Democratic colleagues?

Speaker 3 Have you heard anything from Republican colleagues, perhaps?

Speaker 12 Well, I've won, you know, my Democratic colleagues have been extremely helpful. I mean, the support of the...

Speaker 12 just them having my back, it's really been appreciative.

Speaker 12 I think that, you know, the caucus understands, the Democratic caucus understands that if they can, you know, use this new tool to charge, you know, Congress members for doing their job or for being a critic or speaking out against the administration.

Speaker 12 They know we are in deeper trouble. We know that our democracy is at stake here.
We've seen Trump strip away pieces and pieces of our democracy each and every day.

Speaker 12 And this is a bigger situation than just me. You know, it's a bigger situation than just the judge in Wisconsin.

Speaker 12 This is a situation where we have a president who is taking away the basic things that we love about America, the right to due process, the right to freedoms, the right to, you know, believe what we want to believe in and, and, you know, do how we want to do, you know, in this, in this world that we call America.

Speaker 12 This is why we're here. And to have this president stripping away our democracy, every chance he gets, every hour on the hour, sometimes it's dangerous.
We're heading down the wrong.

Speaker 12 path and we cannot, we have to, you know, push back against this.

Speaker 12 I think people need to, you know, stay woke and they need to stay awake and they need to stay engaged and informed regarding the situation.

Speaker 12 I think from the Republican caucus, obviously we're seeing exactly what we expect, right? They rather serve Trump than serve their constituents. And so what are they doing to me?

Speaker 12 They are, you know, putting in resolutions to get me kicked off committees. They're asking for me to be censored.

Speaker 12 Yesterday, Nancy Mays, who's more concerned about me than serving her constituents, asked for me to put in a resolution for me to be expelled from Congress.

Speaker 12 These are the same people who said that January 6th rioters were good people.

Speaker 12 They supported Trump pardoning these individuals who beat police officers who were hurt very badly, who stormed the Capitol.

Speaker 12 But today, they want to see me kicked out of Congress for doing my job.

Speaker 12 So this is what I'm seeing across the board. And like I said, Dan, I am committed to this work.
I'm committed to my job. And none of this will bully me or waiver or make me stop doing my job.

Speaker 3 Last question for you.

Speaker 3 As we mentioned earlier, the House just passed the

Speaker 3 one big beautiful bill, as Trump calls it, otherwise known as a bill to cut taxes of the rich and pay for it by taking food and health care away from working class and poor Americans.

Speaker 3 What's your reaction to that passage of the bill? Where does it go from here?

Speaker 12 Sad time. You know, I honestly can't believe that Republicans are just more concerned and scared of Donald Trump than scared of the voters in their districts.

Speaker 12 To say that you're taking food off the table, cutting snap benefits, cutting Medicaid. I mean, people are going to die, Dan.
Like hospitals are going to close.

Speaker 12 Funding is being stripped away from communities and specifically many of these communities that Republicans represent.

Speaker 12 And the fact that they're more scared of Donald Trump and they're serving him than serving the people that elected them. I mean, that's a sad situation.
I mean, it's honestly disgraceful.

Speaker 12 And I hope that everything that we're seeing play out right now, today, tomorrow yesterday i hope that it really reflects for 2026 midterms and i hope that voters remember what their members did to them and what they voted on what they supported them serving donald trump and serving the people i really hope that they have a good memory um on on this this era that we're in representative mcyver thank you so much for joining us Good luck with everything that's happening for you.

Speaker 3 And I hope you get a little rest after this long night you've had.

Speaker 12 Thank you so much, Dan. I look forward to being on again with you.

Speaker 3 Please, absolutely, keep us updated on how it goes.

Speaker 12 All righty, take care.

Speaker 2 That's our show for today. Hope everyone has a great long weekend.

Speaker 2 Even though Monday is Memorial Day, we will have a new show where Dan, Lovett, Tommy, and I will answer all the questions, some of the questions.

Speaker 2 The best questions. The best questions that you submitted.
So tune in for that. Bye, everyone.

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Speaker 2 Our producers are David Toledo and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Faris Safari.
Reed Cherlin is our executive editor, and Adrian Hill is our executive producer.

Speaker 2 The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglund and Charlotte Landis.

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Speaker 2 Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Heathcote, Mia Kelman, Molly Lobel, Kirill Pelavive, and David Toles.

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