Did Trump 'snub' Albanese?

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The Prime Minister's highly anticipated meeting with Donald Trump is off, with the US President leaving the G7 early to attend important matters.

It leaves Anthony Albanese in an awkward position and came just moments after the Prime Minister said he was looking forward to his meeting with the US President.

It comes in the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Iran strikes and as Australia prepares to evacuate a fair number of Australians from the conflict zone.

Welcome to Politics Now.

Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis.

And I'm Brett Worthington.

And Brett, it's great to have you back on the podcast.

And after a lot of

will they, won't they, and then just yesterday, people would have heard Jacob and I say it's on, they're going to meet in the flesh.

And it certainly was on until it was off

because Donald Trump, who we all know is quite unpredictable, left the G7 meeting early.

And I think we know why he's left early.

I mean, right now, as we record, there are reports of key figures going into the Situation Room in Washington.

That is a room where, of course, high-level classified defense stuff happens.

And so

the speculation is that perhaps the US is getting involved rather than de-escalating.

But let's just stick to the Australian part before we go to the much, you know, in some ways, more significant international part.

The meeting's off.

Yeah, I was looking at the time code, and it was six minutes from when Anthony Albanese's press conference finishes to when Carolyn Levitt, the spokesman for the President, put out her statement.

And you can imagine while the Prime Minister is speaking about the optimism that he has in getting to meet Donald Trump the following day, Carolyn Levitt's there preparing her tweet to say, we're heading home, things are getting messy.

And in one hand, saying, you know, we've had a great day at the G7, but absolutely cutting short this trip, which was meant to be multiple days.

And as much as you've got the G7 there, I was having a bit of a look at all the other countries that have been invited to kind of sit at the kids' table where Australia has been sitting.

And it was almost the G20, given I think it was 15 or 16 out of the 20 countries were all there.

So this was a big meeting happening at a really important time.

And for Donald Trump to leave now, yes, some will be keen to say what it means for Anthony Albanese, but it is that kind of see the forest from the trees.

And this was an important meeting from Australia's perspective, but there's a whole lot going on in the world right now.

And clearly, Donald Trump's attention is elsewhere.

So this is my take, based on some conversations and, you know, having followed these things for ages.

Is it awkward for the Prime Minister?

Yes, especially the timeframe, you know, just standing up and then clearly not even being consulted at all.

Australia did not get given the heads up as far as I can see that the meeting was now over and cancelled.

So that's awkward.

It's unfortunate.

Clearly Australia being, especially with the AUKUS deal and just broadly with the Australian-America relationship, it's important to have these meetings.

And so it is...

a bump in the road and a delay to something that needs to happen.

No one disagrees that it needs to happen.

But that point you made, I think, is the overwhelming one with the fullness of time.

The world is in a new war.

It's not just a little thing.

It's a new war.

And so I've been saying on this podcast, I'm pumping my own tires here for a few days, that the Israel-Iran war will take over everything.

It will take over the G7.

It overshadows the meeting with Australia.

I was, to be honest, surprised that we even got the meeting.

It seemed to me like, well, really?

Right now, I think that the president has bigger fish to fry.

And so, yeah, Australia takes a few uncomfortable questions questions about, you know, why I didn't get given the heads up, blah, blah, blah.

But like, did I mention there's a war?

I mean, I just, I just think that is enormously significant, not only for the many people dying in Iran and Israel, life is the most important thing, but for the world and the sort of position it puts us all in.

Yeah, and you can imagine like Anthony Albanese sits along a list like Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, that have also not going to have meetings go ahead now now as a result of this.

So anyone who wants to kind of talk about Anthony Albanese being snubbed is in quite good company in terms of who else is not having a meeting.

But you could imagine sitting in that room trying to have a conversation about something that, yes, of course is important from Australia's perspective of these tariffs that are being imposed on all our exports and particularly on steel and aluminium and then the future of the AUKUS agreement.

But it sits in an environment of surely every question that you come out of that meeting is going to be about what on earth is happening in Iran and Israel and you, Donald Trump, as the leader of the free world for want of a better term, Why are you focused on this right now when there is literally the world is on fire on the other side of the world?

So of course, it means now Australia isn't going to have a meeting between the Prime Minister and Donald Trump before that snap review of AUKUS is carried out.

Australia absolutely would have wanted the meeting, but it's too simplistic to say, well, it's just a snub and it's not going to happen now because there's a whole lot of news happening and a whole lot of lives are on the line right now.

Now, the response from the opposition and the political pressure on this is interesting.

They're kind of hedging a bit, not quite at the Peter Dutton 11 level of criticism, but it's ratcheting up.

So Susan Lee's put out a statement saying that it's disappointing to hear that the Prime Minister will not have the opportunity to meet with President Trump, acknowledging, though, this is the hedging bit.

because how can they not, as we say, war pretty serious stuff?

She says in the statement, given the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, this decision is understandable, but to the detriment of Australia, well, okay,

I would say probably maybe short-term detriment, like, you know, is it a sort of long-term detriment?

I'm not convinced myself that it meets that criteria.

But interestingly, then makes the point that this is the problem with just trying to get a meeting on the sidelines rather than being proactive.

That's the criticism, that this wasn't good enough to just have a meeting in the sidelines.

Now,

let's just analyse that, because I think that's a problematic statement.

I understand why the opposition is trying to ratchet it up, not to the Peter Dutton metric, but certainly up there.

But

I think,

based on the evidence, that the Prime Minister not being desperate to get a face-to-face meeting with the president in the Oval Office, given what happens in that office, has probably been, you know, a strategic move.

So that's why they went for the sidelines version.

Now the sidelines version hasn't worked.

It does put the onus on Albanese's team to try and secure a meeting that will have to be in the Oval Office potentially.

You can't delay it forever.

They do have to meet unless we want to walk away from AUKUS.

Now, Albanese says he doesn't.

So this is the problem, that he has his own

kind of KPIs that he needs to meet, which is that AUKUS should be delivered.

And as much as their meeting doesn't go ahead, there are some signals that we saw a Kirstarma meeting with Donald Trump where there were references made to their commitment to AUKUS.

There was no correction from Donald Trump.

So you can interpret that.

I guess there could be some slimmer of hope for Anthony Albanese if he does want AUKUS to continue.

And going forward, it maybe means that come September, the Prime Minister is never headed to go to the UN General Assembly to give a speech, which all of his predecessors have done.

So maybe it sets up a September visit for him to New York and then on to the White House to see Donald Trump.

But given the uncertainty that is happening in the world right now, where six minutes between expecting a meeting and then no meeting at all, goodness knows what the world could be like by the time September rolls around.

But I think there's also this interesting moment for Anthony Albanese where in not seeking a meeting with Donald Trump right from the start, you are able to see how your counterparts have fared in those meetings and they've gone to varying degrees in the Oval Office.

And he's definitely a prime minister that was not a natural person born for the world stage.

He's taken the first three years of his prime ministership to kind of find his feet and he's now at a point where he's worked out what his doctrine is for want of a better phrase and that is stepping out with friends and allies and doing statements particularly about the Middle East with countries like New Zealand and Canada.

And the risk of a White House visit is you are in there by yourself.

You're not buffeted by the friends and allies.

It is just the two of you one-on-one.

And maybe that delay in seeing how other people have responded, the Prime Minister is able to navigate this situation in a way in which those who were there right from the start.

Think back to that Zelensky meeting.

No one ever saw that coming.

It is changing the ways in which leaders deal with Donald Trump because it is going to be the most important meeting that Anthony Albanese has likely had in the time of his Prime Ministership, not just because of what hangs on the line for Australia, but it will say a lot about his leadership, our relationship that he's building with a person that is going to be in office beyond the next Australian election, that Donald Trump is going to be there for the course of this whole term of parliament.

And finding that relationship is going to be important, but you want to enter into that minefield, clearly knowing where all the potential traps are.

And as those traps just continue to be there, booby-trapped for the future, because I feel like we're on pause, if anything, now, I don't think anything accelerates or changes dramatically in the America-Australia relationship.

Clearly, Kevin Rudd and a lot of people are doing a lot of work behind the scenes to keep it afloat, boom, boom.

And the Kevin Rudd will be interesting to watch, PK, because you suspect that the coalition, if they're going to go after someone potentially, if this does linger and kind of droop away on the vine, whether it is they will go after Kevin Rudd rather than necessarily Anthony Albanese and saying, that is our man in Washington, and he's been unable to get this relationship to the point we want it, it's time for change.

And you see here, you hear people like Joe Hockey, former ambassador, saying, I'm here to help if I am needed.

Whether or not there is a role for any of the other former prime ministers, whether there's a role for the former ambassadors to play here will be interesting to watch.

They can make whatever argument they want, I think, the opposition, that this is some sort of failure and, you know, Armageddon is coming.

But people watch broadly the news and they are across the Middle East war.

And let me tell you some things that are just emerging as we record.

Donald Trump has said on social media that people should immediately evacuate the Iranian capital, Tehran, which is why obviously everyone's wondering what is happening.

Is the US now officially going to be drawn in?

We've got the rest of the G7 nations who are broadly, and it's a sort of generalization until we see any statement or any form of words they come up with together, who are broadly in what I would call the de-escalation.

Let's go back to the diplomatic table school of thought.

And that one is everyone has to put down their bombs, so to speak, put down their guns, bombs, missiles, drones, all of the different ways we've seen this war, this theater play out,

and get back to the negotiating table to get Iran to sign up to some kind of pact which

can kind of contain its nuclear ambitions.

So that's what I think many of those G7 nations, and we're not in the G7, but we certainly are adjacent.

We get invited, you know, for some talks.

That's our camp.

That's what Penny Wong and others have been arguing.

We need to de-escalate.

Is the United States now seeing it as an opportunity to so-called finish the job, the job that clearly has been started by Israel in a pretty intensive way?

The thing with Donald Trump is, you know, we've said it 4,000 times, he is unpredictable.

And so things can look like they're going one way and then radically shift to another direction, right?

So anyone who kind of calls it now is a lunatic.

We're not there.

But all directions are that that's why they're all coming back to Washington and back to, you know, Australia in that context, low on the agenda.

AUKUS subs for the 2040s, the 2040s, when we're dealing with bombs today,

low on the agenda.

And you've got Donald Trump as a president who talked a lot about wanting to be a peacetime president, that he didn't want to get into these endless wars.

And we have seen time and time again the consequence of escalation in this moment and the long-lasting, not just in the moment, but the years and decades of the tale of these effects of how they can reorient regions and have broader consequences that you see continue right around the world for many, many years to come.

It is an incredible moment in which you are seeing whether Donald Trump is going to take this to the brink and then potentially use it as a way to broker a deal and find a way of bringing the temperature out, or

are things about to escalate?

And is this perilous moment that you can't quite underscore the extent to which that just currently hangs in limbo?

And the whole world, whether they are in Canada right now in the form of world leaders, or if they are just people living their lives, are closely watching not just that plane going back to Washington and what happens there, but what the consequence of getting back to Washington will mean for the world wide round.

I think all of the attention of the world now, all of the other lofty ambitions for the G7,

I would say

I don't think that's going to happen.

The current crisis is the one that becomes the dominant issue, and it is the only thing happening in the immediate sense that these countries have to engage with.

Now, Australia, on just Sunday, when Penny Wong spoke with David Spears, I'm actually speaking with Penny Wong a little later today on afternoon briefing.

It'll be interesting to see how she sort of responds to this idea of evacuation and

the positioning of like the world and allies in this region.

But she used that terminology that Israel has a right to defend itself.

This part is contested.

Was Israel just defending itself in taking these strikes against Iran on Friday?

Or was this provocative act because it was trying to get away from the diplomatic route, the table?

Because we know Benjamin Netanyahu, who doesn't really want to deal with Iran.

That's never been his ambition.

He's been quite open about that.

And so he sees in Donald Trump a president who is perhaps prepared to back

his alternative rather than the diplomatic route.

I mean it was, remember, Trump that pulled out of the original Obama-era deal with Iran on managing the program.

And that's another tension point.

between Australia and the US.

I mean, we haven't even got the meeting, but we are taking a different line even on this dispute.

Aaron Ross Powell, and you see how Australia can get drawn in on multiple fronts.

So there's that direct impact of the 650 odd people that are saying to our Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, they're either in Israel or Iran, saying we would like to get out if possible.

It's a difficult task because airspaces are closed and that ability for Australia so far away to get people out.

So that is a kind of one part of the involvement that Australia will have.

And then there's that broader picture about the Strait of Hormuz, which is the part of waterway that connects the Persian Gulf through to the Gulf of Oman and then out into the Indian Ocean.

And they say it is the world's most important choke point in which a fifth of the fuel that passes from, that is leaving either from Saudi Arabia or the UAE is heading through there and out to the world to provide petrol that we all use in our lives.

Now, if that is cut off because Iran takes a decision to close that off, that will obviously spike oil prices.

That'll have huge implications worldwide.

Now, we've talked a lot about inflation, but that oil security element there will have a global implication far beyond just the immediate point of where that choke is closed.

And to put it in a bitter perspective, it's 33 kilometers wide.

It sounds big when you say 33, but think about that and how perilous that part of the water is.

We saw what happened when ships were being taken as they were going into the Red Sea heading towards the Suez Canal.

And that waterway getting cut off meant it was a 30-day journey to come all the way around the west coast of Africa down to the south and then back up.

If that part of waterway, the Strait of Hornwalls, is cut off, this will have global implications that we're probably not even quite able to anticipate just in this moment right now.

Which is why there are so many countries, including our own, probably with a middle-ranking influence, but others with even more, of course, France, the UK, who would like to see it de-escalate, not escalate.

And so if it is voids to escalate, that puts us all, I think, in dangerous times.

For Australia's position in all of this, you mentioned all of those Australians wanting to get out.

The Department of Foreign Affairs will be very, very active about how to try and get people out safely.

And that's not,

doesn't look easy to do.

How do you do repatriation flights in a place where there are drones and missiles being fired almost constantly?

Well, you can't.

That's the answer.

You can't.

It's not safe to do it.

And so...

Yeah, there's a lot of Australians that are stuck in a vulnerable position.

And

like, it's a genuinely unsafe theater to be in.

Yeah, and we saw a taste of it during the campaign.

It's very easy to kick Canberra, to kick the bureaucracy, you know, this bloated public service.

What's it doing for anyone?

In these moments right now, you see the consequence of having these bureaucrats that are working around the clock because they do take it a responsibility to help Australians that are stranded now in clear and present danger in theatres of war.

They are having to tell these Australians, we cannot get you out right now.

You need to shelter where you are and take all precautions that you possibly can.

They are working towards trying to find a way to to get them out, but at the moment, that is not a solution they're able to offer.

And you can imagine those people that are working in those centres

around the clock to try and find a way out.

And you can guarantee no matter who the government of the day was, that is something that they would be doing to try and get, to make sure that their citizens are safe.

And we saw the Prime Minister speaking from Canada saying, we are again saying, do not travel to this region.

If you are heading there, it is dangerous right now.

You are at risk of being killed as a consequence of what is happening in that part of the world.

So not only stopping people from going in, but then trying to work out how on earth we get these Australians out.

And so, yeah, it is really concerning.

Look, just before we go,

so much emphasis on Trump, and I think rightly so, just because of the sort of power of the man and of the country and of the influence they have on

particularly this particular conflict, which we're seeing, which is so disturbing to watch unfold.

But of course, the Prime Minister's met with lots of people and will continue to.

In fact, that was the big message out of the Prime Minister's office.

We will continue with all of our other meetings that they clearly have.

There was one particularly hilarious meeting, actually, where the Prime Minister met with the South Korean president.

And he actually said that I think he called the Prime Minister attractive in some way.

Was he given?

The Prime Minister seemed a bit flattered by

what was being offered about his looks and noticed that it had been a hard campaign.

He titled us a short time ago, three press conferences a day for 30-odd days.

You know, it doesn't help your appearance, I think, is what the Prime Minister offered in return.

But I loved it.

You are very kind, he said.

You are very kind.

I love this sort of

romantic stuff that goes on at these forums, where it's just a sort of touch of subtle diplomatic flirtation that unfolds, which is just always kind of bizarre and fun to watch.

Emma Macron going in for the hug and who's going to shake the hand the hardest and all this kind of nonsense that carries on it.

You know, you need something to have a giggle at, don't you, PK?

Yeah, then there's, of course, the Keir Starmer

meeting, too.

That's a pretty easy one, though.

I'm sorry.

Good on you, Prime Minister, but really, that's not a hard one.

Both Labour Prime Ministers in the Commonwealth, you know.

They don't look dissimilar, these kind of grey-haired glasses guys that are just kind of, you know, they're both being whopping majorities with a primary vote in the kind of mid to low 30s.

They've got a lot in common.

Target strategies after long

revolving Dorch and right-wing parties.

Come on.

There is something interesting in.

So Donald Trump leaving is, in and of itself, is a story.

But when the Prime Minister travelled to a similar meeting like this, it was at the end of last year.

He went to South America for the G20.

And it was in that period where Donald Trump had been elected but was yet to take office.

And the question that was very much in the room there as Donald Trump loomed over this forum was the Europeans look like a diminished force.

You saw Emmanuel Macron was certainly down.

There was a question

in Germany, there was set to be elections and a likely change of leadership.

You had the open question of if Donald Trump is going to withdraw America from the world stage, who steps up and to fill that void?

And very much Xi Jinping of China was there and eager to step into that void.

You saw Anthony Albanese there, keen to kind of sell Australia as a reliable trading partner.

Come and do all your green investments here in Australia.

And if you jump forward six months now, when you've got this meeting happening in Canada, with Donald Trump leaving again, he has been more involved in the world world in a way in which wasn't necessarily being forecasted back in November of last year.

But you have seen a resurgence of the Europeans, in particular, Emmanuel Macron, very keen to step into that world leadership role, a new leader in Canada in Mark Carney, the Germans putting in a new chancellor who is outward-looking in terms of the role that he wants to play, and NATO and the EU very much wanting to step up.

That world situation of, you know, who is auditioning to be the world leader.

If it is that Donald Trump does look to withdraw, it is clear that the Europeans are sensing a moment in which they want to be the ones to reassert themselves in that world leadership role.

And I think that even though Donald Trump won't be there for these final days of meetings, Anthony Albanese, very keen, though, to use these final days that he's over there to build these relationships with these new world leaders.

Some will be easier than others, like you say, with Kirstarma and with Mark Carney, but forming those relationships, because if it is that the world is heading into a perilous moment with which it looks like we could be heading into, having those relationships with allies in Europe Europe in particular will be really important for Australia's position in the world right now.

Yeah, so that's on the defence front, the building relationships also on the economic front, this strong kind of alternative trade pact that we're trying to build with all of these other nations.

That's all the smart stuff we're doing, you know, trying to pursue a deal with the EU on free trade, which we're currently doing, re-engaging with that.

Whether you can call it Prosecco suddenly feels a whole lot low-friendly compared to these other negotiations, doesn't it?

Yeah, I know.

Like, are we going to have a war over Prosecco, please?

Look, we'll take it right now.

Yeah, yeah.

Although, how good is Prosecco?

I feel like a glass right now.

Can I say that as we record now, the Trump administration, this just shows how volatile, fast-moving this is, is now saying.

They are denying that they're planning to be part of an attack on Iran,

saying, you know, and this is responding to Donald Trump warning residents of Tehran to evacuate immediately.

So that's why we all thought this.

I I mean, it's not unreasonable given the president said that.

The Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, has confirmed that the US was sending more forces to the region, but it's a defensive role rather than an offensive, you know, planning an attack.

That's as we stand on a Tuesday, middle of the day.

But

it's,

you know, who knows what's going to happen in that situation room.

They don't invite us, but we do snoop around.

That's it for politics now for today.

Brett, thanks for hanging out with me.

Thanks, Piquet.

I'm just going to go and check Signal to see if there's been any developments on there, possibly.

Yeah, well, Pete Hegseth might have added you as a mate just accidentally in somehow.

That's it for today.

I'll be back tomorrow with David Spears.

We'll find out what's happened because things will have happened, let me tell you.

And if you want to ask questions, send them to the party room at abc.net.au.

Fran and I will answer them.

See you, Brett.

See you, Pikachu.