Why the Nats broke up with the Libs

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Today the Australian people have voted for Australian values.

Government is always formed in a sensible centre, but our Liberal Party reflects a range of views.

The National Party will sit alone on a principled basis.

We've always been about the planet, but we've got to make sure that people have their daily needs met.

People are starting to see that there is actually a different way of doing politics.

Hello and welcome to the party room.

I'm Patricia Carvelis and today I'm joining you from Gadigal Land of the Eeora Nation in Sydney, which is where I am.

I'm Fran Kelly in the studio with PK.

This is very exciting, face-to-face.

We haven't done this for ages, it feels like.

It does feel like it's been too long, although Fran it was only a couple of weeks ago.

It was only after the election.

That's right.

So

it feels like that's been 100 years.

Yes, that's true.

It has been a lot of people.

It's been 100 years.

It's a couple of weeks of change.

But here we are.

We are.

It feels so long because the political news hasn't slowed down.

Normally after the election, it's all over.

You have a bit of a

breathing out.

But...

We haven't.

And neither are our lovely, gorgeous, adorable listeners, PK.

They've sent in all these questions.

Some of them are brilliant, I have to say.

Some of them are tricky.

So we thought it'd be a good idea to dedicate a whole episode to answering some of your questions.

And I have to admit, full disclosure, I had to go to Anthony Green for some of the answers.

I'm so glad you did because when we get them wrong, people get so cranky.

I know, and right, they know so much more than me.

And some of these questions is clear.

Well, that's right.

But here they are asking the questions.

Should we do it?

Let's do it.

We'll move to questions without notice.

We'll give the call to the Leader of the Opposition.

Thank you very much, Mr Speaker.

My question is to the Prime Minister.

Order.

The bells are ringing.

That means it's time for our question time.

And our first question comes from the two Luke's.

Is that Luke squared?

Okay.

And this is a question I think that's on all of our minds.

Here it is.

Hey, PK and Fran, this is Luke.

And Luke.

We're in Melbourne, and we have a question about the counting.

It is now, like, as of right now, just over a week, a few hours, just over a week since the federal election.

And there are so many seats in doubt, some of which are only around 85% counted.

And we kind of want to know.

So why does it take so long?

Why can we send Katie Peru to space where we can't count elections in a week?

All right.

Thanks for this.

You guys are fantastic.

We love your work.

We love the show.

Hi.

Great question, Luke.

And I know a lot of us are thinking that.

Like, when are we going to know?

Finally, we kind of know the big result, of course, because it was so overwhelmingly in Labour's favour.

But look, I have to say, I went to the guru for this, all right?

Lads settled down.

I went to Anthony Green and his first comedies.

Well, it took years to get Katy Perry to space, actually.

And there's decades of research before then so there's so good his point was let's not be too hard on the AEC because they actually count in Australia our democratic system is pretty fine-tuned really and the the AEC staff count every vote cast at a ballot box on election day and at pre-polling stations in a couple of weeks before then so that's about 74% of the vote so that's pretty good for starters then they count all the so-called declaration votes that's the ones that actually come in an envelope so they're absentee votes or postal votes and you know they could be cast anywhere in australia or overseas which means you know that if they were cast for instance in fremantle but you live in the seat of melbourne or something you've got to get the vote from the fremantle post absentee ballot box all the way across that can take some time and then with postal votes they can come back for two weeks there's a two-week lock-off date on that that's the legal deadline for them to arrive obviously they have to have been posted and be postmarked before election night.

So you can't just suddenly see where the vote's going and send in your postal vote.

No, so that's two weeks there.

Then there's the complexity of every ballot paper.

If you've got four candidates on a ballot paper, it's pretty easy to count, sort out the preferences.

If you've got 13 candidates, which some of them do, then that's much trickier.

And then there's the whole preference count because we have this style of election.

It's not first past the post.

And that's getting less and less straightforward as we get more more and more independents and minor parties being competitive in the electorate in this election and this is an anthony green fact only 12 electorates were decided on first preferences last election it was 15 and that number has been steadily shrinking so the counts getting steadily more complex okay you with me here luke and luke everything is taking a bit longer because our our broader Australian electorate is more complex now.

It's not such, we have two major parties yes, but those major parties are now getting slightly more or slightly less than a third of the vote, and the other third is up for grabs, minor parties, and independents.

So the whole preference organisation is getting more and more complex.

And that's where we're at.

I think that's right.

And just a couple of other things that I want to add to it, if I can.

Yes, it goes on and on, but that's because.

And thanks to Anthony Green for all of that.

Yeah, for doing the work for us.

But here we are, delivering it to you, Luke.

When it's so tight, a couple of things about the process.

It is heavily scrutineered.

So people representing their parties literally, you know, like I'm sort of, don't want to make it sound like standover tactics because they kind of are, if you see the photos, they're breathing over their necks.

They are, but they're meant to be respectful.

I don't know if it, yeah, hopefully it always is.

But they are, and they're going, well, I don't know if that looks like a one.

That looks like a tick.

We need to exclude that one because they are fighting.

for every vote and for the exclusion of votes for their competitor when it's getting down to that.

So that's one thing.

And these scrutinies are from the parties, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

But of course, the Electoral Commission is making the determination, but they're, you know, like going in, making the argument.

In the room where it happened.

And it's pretty intense and gets pretty willing when it's very close because they are literally so close.

It's neck and neck.

So they're fighting for who's going to be.

They're going to be in Bradfield.

That's what we're seeing.

Well, if you look at Bradfield, if you look at Goldstein, these are such close votes.

But interestingly, if there's just a hundred votes difference, right, then there is an automatic recount that happens.

And I want to say on that, the Australian Electoral Commission is so good at their job, and Annabel Crabb is working on a piece on all of this, so good at their job that actually it is, I've been told, pretty rare for that to like overturn any decision because they've got so many of those calls right, but they do an automatic recount anyway because it's so close.

Again, so that we can really trust our system and that there is absolute, everyone is sure.

And, you know, I was speaking to a very senior Liberal MP who said to me, look, look, you know, even the automatic recounts, it's just in case, I don't know, a box of votes went missing and no one noticed.

But that rarely ever happens.

So.

And that's, you know, we're blessed in this country that that's why when an election result happens, it is accepted.

I mean, there is a capacity for a legal challenge.

Happens rarely, but it would have to be within that 100-vote threshold.

But yeah, we usually get it right and people trust the process.

Right?

That's the thing about it.

It's a wonderful thing.

But it does mean it can be slow.

And to quote Anthony again, he thinks the result in bradfield all that preference counting and scrutineering he said it'll be scrutineered to death and the final vote might not be known for for one or two for a couple of weeks you know imagine being them just think about those particular two candidates oh gosh that must be so stressful okay let's go to our next question and our next question is about the role of the nationals in a future coalition and it comes from charles Hi, friend and PK.

After the last election, there's been a lot of talk about why the coalition lost but not much about the role the Nationals played or how they actually went in the seats they contested.

With the Nationals taking such hardline positions like being the first to come out against the voice and having people like Matt Canavan who flat out reject serious climate action, how are the moderates in the coalition meant to shift things back to the centre?

Is this internal split just going to keep them out of office for years to come?

Thank you.

Charles, great question.

And I suppose one that, yeah, the Liberal Party is currently contemplating and lots of individual members of the Liberal Party, you say the moderates and that last bit of your question, but more broadly, these are deep questions.

So what are the messages of the election?

Well, the truth is many.

It's never just one.

But we now have Labor.

going to an election and winning two elections in a row, the last one in a landslide, but the next one was the one before was a change of government election, on the basis of renewables being the base of, and the rollout being the base of the future for our energy mix, they've won both of those contests with that being front and centre, despite in the last campaign, a scare campaign from the Liberals about the price of energy still,

and also, you know, that was counted, absolutely, but still

Labor won.

And so, yes, the Nationals insisting on, you know, particularly some of them like Matt Canavan pulling out out of net zero by 2050.

Clearly some Liberals also believe that.

You ask, will this keep them out of office for years to come?

Well, we can't be sure because politics can change and sentiment can change.

We can all remember, of course, Tony Abbott winning a landslide on the basis of repealing the carbon tax.

So politics can change.

So capitalism.

Sentiment can change.

That's what I mean.

Thank you.

Sentiment can change.

But

if you look at the sentiment broadly in the big Australian cities, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, on this question, I reckon it's going to be birth on this question.

Yes, yes, yes.

It's going to be very hard, I think, for the Liberal Party to regain those key seats that it's basically been smashed in and lost.

if they take a position that's hostile to reaching net zero and climate targets, it is risky for them.

It is risky.

And yes, this is another, you're right, Piquet.

We've saw another election effectively fought

on the climate wars.

And again, you know, the coalition has been smashed on it.

And yet the Nats have come back and say, well, we've got to axe net zero by 2050, go against basically most of the rest of the world, except for Donald Trump and a couple of others.

And, you know, others saying, yes, and we've got to proceed with our nuclear energy policy, which is a very big bet on clean energy, but expensive nuclear energy that won't deliver for a long time.

So that's in a sense delaying the pullback from fossil fuels.

And the people didn't go for it.

So people are still on the side of let's invest in clean energy.

I think they understand that climate change is a real thing.

We can see by Australia's uptake from solar power that it's popular here.

So yeah, there's those things.

This whole question about the pressure from the Nats in the coalition party room and what that means for the Liberals that have a smaller numbers now, have a diminished presence in that joint party room, is going to be interesting to see because the immediate readout from most people seem to be, you've lost touch, you don't represent modern Australia, you've got to change you've got to get in touch with you know stop stop fighting those culture wars and things like that

and and and get get more moderate you've gone too far to the right you're actually doing a four corners on the future of the Liberal Party I'd be interested to know what you're finding out maybe you'll give us a sneak preview now I don't know but are they thinking the future is a broader church with more moderates in it again or doubling down?

Well, there's a split view.

That's what I can tell you.

And you'll see, you know, how people express it in the piece on Monday night.

But yeah, there's a mixed view on that.

And I can reveal we're recording this on a Tuesday morning-ish, but imminently, and we might even have an answer soon.

But the leader of the Nationals, David Littleproud, is about to make an announcement in relation to the Coalition Agreement.

He'll be joined by his deputy leader, Kevin Hogan, and Bridget McKenzie.

That's imminently in the Nationals party room.

Now, you know, there's a mixed...

You better tell people what the coalition agreement is because it's secret business.

You're right.

It's okay.

So it's an agreement which I think really matters a lot more in government right because it's you know about the sort of way that the government will function if they have a form in government together in terms of the ministerial carve-up based on how many positions they've won and how many positions they deserve on the front bench which of course they will fight for bigger salaries more power do the maths um but it can mean more than that well

This is the point at the moment, and we're about to find out, right?

So this might be redundant, but there is a debate about not just positions, although it's big time about positions and power don't don't don't fool yourself that it's about deeper things all the time but there are some deeper things uh net zero nuclear power stations and whether the government or them if they became the government still invest in them all of this has been

the regional grant program that was announced the kind of future fund vibe all of this has been negotiated between Susan Lee and David Littleproud.

Let's park that because we might get news soon.

And I want to put this question, and it's a written one.

It's from Cameron.

I'll read it and then Fran will answer it.

When the election counts for both houses, the party leadership votes and the party room jumping are finalised, could you confirm how many of the coalition members will sit in the federal Liberal Party room and how many in the national party room?

It gets a bit confusing with the LNP and the CLP members seemingly having a bet each way, even if they had a pre-existing agreement, and with the number of regional liberals.

Okay, you want us to do that?

We can, but we can't do that yet.

No, we can't do it finally yet.

But Cameron, I think what you're at, you're right, it does get a bit confusing because we have seen some party room jumping, as you've suggested, particularly with Senator Jacinta Nampachimpa Price, who's a CLP member in the Northern Territory.

They generally have always sat with the National, mostly sat with the National Party room.

She was elected

as a National, but she has since said, no, I'm going to sit with the Liberal Party.

And they can choose.

In the LNP in Queensland, that was originally a Liberal Party and National Party, they combined and some of them sit in the National Party room and some of them sit in the Liberal Party room.

Piquet's right, we can't give you final numbers, but this is roughly the shape of it.

It looks like that the Nats have 19

in the party room, lower house and senators, might be one more or less than that, I'm not sure yet.

And it looks like the Liberals have about 54, though that's probably likely to come down a little because they lose a couple of senators.

So as you can see, see, the breakdown in that party room is roughly

you know 20 nats and 55 libs, give or take a few.

That's a greater proportion of nats than we've seen in the past.

So they are expecting and starting to demand they have more sway in that room.

Their voices will be louder than they've been.

It's normally been a lot more libs than that.

And that's why you're seeing them speak up and say, well, we want an economic portfolio, for instance.

You know, no, we can't be treasurer, but gee, I'd like to be finance minister, shadow, things like that.

But that's how it's going to be.

And those numbers aside, as John Howard says, you know, it's all about the arithmetic.

That does mean that they will have more sway in

that joint party room.

They absolutely do.

I mean, like, nationals did all right in this election and the Liberals didn't.

And that is, I suppose, at the heart of the conflict as well.

Like, why did the day do all right?

That's why they're fighting for some of these positions because, you know, they've sort of...

They want to keep doing all right with that base.

But it's stark right pitka there's you'll know this better than me there's there's very few liberal mps in our capital cities now

it's it's solo so yeah like somewhere in sydney in greater sydney i think we're at like last count because it keeps changing so i don't want to be held to

call anthony yeah please four-ish right like that's our phenomenal populous city and in country right tiny amounts and again it's about the definition a bit if you're sort of the outer ring and all of that to be fair but you know in terms of the inner region it will just be

adelaid there's none in tasmania there's none in you know hobart there's none tasmania it's a wipeout right like it's a whole other story so yeah it's it's just it's a huge thing how do you regain that those seats of course moderates arguing let's go to the center and the conservatives thinking well hang on a minute don't just their view is just don't hijack this election um to to

run your political agenda.

That's what that's what they think.

They think, let's look at this.

So what message are the Conservatives taking out of this election?

There is a range of views in the Conservatives, too.

They're not all just in the one school.

The whole kind of Tony Abbott, because he's been very vocal and he has

mastermind vibes of, you know, suggesting that Jacinta Nipajiba Price go into the Liberal Party room.

He's absolutely a culture warrior, double down on that strategy.

Not all conservatives think that just doubling down on culture wars will win them general elections, though.

I think that's a really, that's a caricature of conservatives.

They know they have to appeal more broadly, and their big thing is we do have to get the economics right.

So to be fair, there is actually some synergy between moderates and conservatives on let's get the economics right.

And I think that could be fertile ground for them if I'm to think positively about what their future might be.

And, you know, there's general agreement, I think, across the board that was a terrible campaign.

Terrible campaign.

And also,

they got away from basic liberal principles.

They got big government-ish, right?

Like big government-funded power stations.

What?

That is not a liberal idea.

I mean, I've, you know, grown up in this country for like all of these years.

The Liberal Party was strongly identified with small government, and they went to that last election, not as a small government option.

And I think that is partly what came back to bite them, too.

All right, we've got this great question from Ben.

Here it is.

Hi, PK and Fran.

Thanks for all your work.

I'd like to hear your analysis of each campaign's media strategy, particularly towards the Gen Z and millennial voting cohort, now that the election is over.

For food for thought, the Prime Minister went on the happy hour with Lucy and Nikki, who aren't overtly political podcasters like Abby Chatfield.

He did a harmless stare from them in Parliament.

On the other hand, Dutton barely went on to any long-form podcasts, and the female voice of his campaign seemed to be Joan Hume, whose rhetoric was quite condescending of her opponents.

And young voters, particularly left-leaning voters, disengage with politicians who patronise others.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks.

Well,

it is obvious in the numbers, Ben, that Anthony Albanese and the Labor Machine, and let's give them both the credit that they deserve because the Labor Machine did an excellent job here.

Paul Erickson is going to be speaking at the National Press Club.

tomorrow, yeah, on a Wednesday about how they won and whoa, like get your popcorn out.

Like their strategy was rolled gold, excellent.

Everyone acknowledges it.

And one part of that strategy was getting into the ears and the verticals and the algorithms of the youth um so what do you mean of the biggest biggest voting block

together then so

good idea but also everyone can come up with the idea the idea is an easy one to come up with how to execute it and you have to give them full credit they executed it well and the prime minister also executed it well like and played along you know the dululu and the wulu all of my you know the young people i work with straight away were like did you see he did the dululu and i was like and that was a challenge right i didn't even i thought what is he doing because we're middle-aged it went over our heads and then i did some deep diving i'm owning it with you and my kid was like dolulu and i was like ah right he's he's speaking the language of the young people yeah no peter dutton failed on this as did his campaign they did do some podcasts but i think because he was he felt vulnerable on the woman question he held back from some of that and i think that worked to his detriment rather than engaging and being able to demonstrate and like the other part, because it's not just generational, it's also gendered, women, the woman question, I think in the fullness of time, we will understand very deeply that some of the language that Peter Dutton used, particularly around protecting women and children,

was offensive to a lot of women and just kind of didn't land right.

Like, what?

We don't really want you to be our personal cop.

We want you to be the prime minister and to enable equality, right?

And one more thing, there was a podcast he went on.

He went on the Burris podcast before the election and suggested that men were being,

you know, hard done by with women being promoted sometimes.

I'm trying to remember the question.

Yeah.

And he did that kind of nodding to this view and the way that men feel.

Young men are feeling like they're being made out to be monsters or something.

Yeah.

And that and that, you know, if they get overlooked for a job and that view, you know, so we're talking about podcasts.

Yeah, he was getting in the ear of perhaps men, but we're in a compulsory voting country.

Women Women have 51% of the vote.

Like,

it's the ladies, right?

And the women, they spoke volumes in their vote.

And now that's why the Liberal Party is doing all this soul searching.

Got another question.

Got another question.

Our next question actually came through just before the election.

Prescient.

That's what you are.

You're so good.

It's still interesting, though, in the context of where we find ourselves right now.

This one's from Steph.

Hi, Fran and PK.

I have a question about what happens to the opposition to government if one of the existing major parties were to lose so many seats and at what point do they no longer form the sort of majority oppositional party to the party who wins government?

So in a situation where we end up with a whole collection of teal independents and maybe a smattering of One Nation and maybe some of the other sort of you know the Greens obviously are going to probably pick up a few seats.

What happens where there's no clear group that is to form opposition?

Is it essentially a coalition of everyone except for government and then government?

Also, is there a point at which, for example, if the Liberals were to lose so many seats that they would potentially be in breach of the coalition agreement with the nationals, is there a point where that happens?

If so, what is it?

What happens?

Love the pod.

Love your work.

Thanks.

Well, Steph, I didn't know the answer to this question.

So again, I rang my Anthony Green hotline.

And his point was that we're a long way from that for a start.

But things are changing and they're changing quickly.

So it's a good question.

Apparently, the Speaker can appoint...

the opposition leader that it's not a sort of a constitutional position it's appointed within the realms of the parliament

so you know if there was a case where it was a whole selection of minor parties and independents that had the the biggest grouping in the parliament and they could agree to sit as some kind of grouping then it would be up to the speaker to appoint but i i feel pretty safe in saying pk that we're not in this position yet in in wa at the state election before this one i think the nats were in opposition in the WA state parliament because the Libs were reduced there to two seats for a while.

And so these things can change around, but then it's a matter for the Parliament to decide which one to appoint.

I think that's right.

And in a similar vein, we've got this question from Liv.

Hi, Party Room.

I've heard the term resounding victory for Labor a lot since Saturday.

This election, though, around six million Australians voted for neither of the major parties first in the House of Reps.

Do we know how many seats were won just from first preferences yet?

Understand this number has been tanking the last few elections.

If it remains low, doesn't this suggest Labor's mandate or resounding victory isn't that strong, but instead that there's increased fragmentation across electorates?

Thanks, Fran and PK.

Also, so glad to hear the podcast is continuing.

It's helping me stay connected with the adult world while on mat leave.

Really?

Thank you.

I'm glad you're glad it's continuing.

Yes, it is going to continue because politics and policy is a sort of everyday thing.

It shouldn't just be.

We're going to get to 10 years for sure.

Oh, no.

I'm feeling, anyway, I won't have an existential crisis like the Liberal Party.

I'll try and keep on track.

Boom, boom.

Okay, so the splintering of the electorate, the move really away from major parties, or is it,

is it a resounding victory?

Okay, my thesis is that it is still.

Sorry, I know that, you know, we still have a big third party vote, and I suspect that will grow, but also fluctuate, can I say?

But I think there is, it's really interesting to hear some of the critique.

Oh, Labor's primary.

We have a preferential voting system in our country.

Which people understand.

Yeah, we know, right?

Not everyone.

And I think we need more literacy around that and all of that, I will concede, right?

But this was absolutely a very large group of Australians that voted left of centre.

But that centre word is key here.

They didn't vote far left.

They voted left of centre.

And I think Labor actually genuinely did well in this election, not just in the seat count, like per se, but actually that was a pretty thumping victory by any account.

So I find some of the language around minimising it

super weird.

No, I do think it's worth analysing that vote, though, because the major parties have something to think about when they can see now their vote has slipped dramatically over the last 20 years and seems to be stuck around a third of the electorate each.

And how are they going to manage that?

And the way to manage it is to as you say I think try and galvanize and draw to your preference strategy that centre-left vote and again to quote Anthony he points out that the counting that's going on in Bradfield at the moment between the teal and the liberal candidate she's a new candidate and that what has been a very safe liberal seat what's been surprising is that as the postal votes have come in and the absentee votes come in they've split very strongly towards the teal which is not expected usually the libs pick up the most postal votes by a mile but the major parties do well because they've got the mechanics the machine to set that going but in this case they've gone strongly to the teal that switched the vote around a few times and the reason for that is that most of those a very strong preference flow from the liberal from labor and the greens to the teals so it's exactly as you say the centre left vote greens labor and the teals is likely to get perhaps a surprise victory in that seat of bradfield the counting that's going on oh my god the coalition They have pulled out.

No way.

They've split the coalition.

Whoa.

The Nationals say they will sit alone.

They will not do a formal agreement with the Liberal Party.

And Dave Littleproud says, what we have got to a position of is that the National Party will sit alone on a principle basis, on the basis of looking forward, not having a look back, and to try and actually regain important policy pieces that change the lives of the people we represent.

Whoa.

It's a principled position of making sure that those hard-fought wins are maintained and respected.

We continue to look forward.

They are not going to be in a joint party room.

It is a significant story, and I've got to go do a lot more work now.

You do got to go, but let me ask you one question.

I mean, you're doing a four corners on the Liberals.

So we won't have something called the coalition anymore.

Is that right?

We'll have the Liberal Party and the National Party.

There will not be the coalition.

Well, there's no current coalition agreement, so we can't call them that right now.

Like, you've got to do a coalition to be a coalition.

It is a really like just parting words for me, and we'll make more.

That's what we do.

You can rely on us.

They said positions we couldn't get comfort around, and my wonderful shout-out producer Josh on

afternoon briefing, and he's actually been working on Four Corners with me, has been sending me all of the updates.

So thanks, Josh.

These positions we couldn't get comfort around are nuclear being part of our energy grid in the future, divestiture powers for supermarkets.

So, principled stand moving away.

This is probably devastating for Susan Lee.

He started off by saying, you know, he waited a bit because her mother's died.

It's a hard time, but whoa, what a week for her.

What a job.

I've got to go do lots of work, Fran.

I love hanging out with you.

Fran and I are kind of reeling with this.

I'm in shock.

This is seismic.

I mean, the coalition, I think this coalition, this version of it, formed back in 1946, but

was some kind of coalition, I think, even before that, but since 1946.

So this is, what's that?

80 years, Nilly.

Wow.

PK, you've got work to do.

I've got a lot of work to do.

Thank you, all of you, for your questions.

They were fantastic.

And I haven't had a chance to read one of them, but one of you says, thank you.

I'm one of the politics now nerds that you've created over the last nine years.

And we love that.

We hope we, that's the whole point, really, to bring all of us.

up in our knowledge and understanding and figuring out of this country and we live in and the political the politics that make it and break it and it's just actually, this news has just PK's in shock, you should say it.

I am because I live and breed this stuff.

And this is actually a radical departure.

So I'm going to go and find out what it means for this country.

And I'll be here tomorrow.

Tomorrow, it's with David Spears.

You and I Thursday again.

Can't wait.

Meanwhile, keep sending these questions in.

We love getting them.

We'll have these update question-only sessions every now and again.

And follow Politics Now on the ABC, listen out so you never miss an episode.

That's it.

Got a run.

See you, Piquet.

See ya.